The Inevitable

Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That

Will Shape Our Future
Kevin Kelly
© 2016
From THE INEVITABLE by Kevin Kelly. Summarized by arrangement with TarcherPerigee,
an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a division of of Penguin Random House LLC.
332 pages
[@] getab.li/26697
Book:

Rating Take-Aways

9
9 Importance • Twelve “inevitable” technological developments will reshape society by 2050.
9 Innovation • They are: “becoming, cognifying, flowing, screening, accessing, sharing, filtering,
8 Style remixing, interacting, tracking, questioning” and a new “beginning.”

• The changes of technology now in the process of becoming will drive a trajectory
toward a restless, innovative “protopia” – more dynamic than any utopia or dystopia.
 
Focus • Artificial intelligence and the cognified Internet of Things (IoT) will disrupt daily life.

• The flowing of endlessly copied data fuels both real-time services and digital goods.
Leadership & Management
Strategy • Sharing’s “digital social-ism” will alter buying and selling.
Sales & Marketing
• Endless filtering and remixing mash up content and challenge copyright laws. Virtual
Finance reality promises mass interaction.
Human Resources
IT, Production & Logistics • Questioning by human and AI minds will disrupt old dogmas.
Career & Self-Development
• Human and machine minds are beginning to form a “superorganism.”
Small Business
Economics & Politics • This profound “soft singularity” will release untold opportunities.
Industries
Global Business
Concepts & Trends

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getabstract

getabstract
Relevance
getabstract
What You Will Learn
In this summary, you will learn:r1) What 12 main technological currents are likely to affect humankind through
2050, 2) What opportunities these forces offer and 3) How technology’s “inevitable” momentum is building toward
a globally networked hybrid mind.
getabstract
Review
Developing technologies are bending toward certain “trajectories” that seem likely to take the world to uncharted
realms in the decades ahead. Though they don’t yield to detailed forecasting, these accelerating forces are carving
out interconnected channels of societal change. Technology guru Kevin Kelly describes 12 of the most potent
irresistible forces, conveying his message with insight based on immersion in cyberculture. People “screen” instead
of reading. They “flow,” “access” and “share” instead of buying and owning. While accepting some of the
negatives, he finds optimism and opportunity at this unparalleled “beginning” of the human-machine civilization.
getAbstract recommends his provocative report to innovators, technologists, investors, entrepreneurs, futurists, VCs
and progressive “hackers” of culture, business and life.
getabstract
getabstract

getabstract
Summary
getabstract
The Dozen Major “Forces”
Twelve “inevitable” technological developments will reshape society between the present
and about 2050. These currents will disrupt old norms, laws, perceptions, interactions and
national interests. A dozen strong forces – expressed as 12 restless “verbs” of change –
accelerate each other in a ceaseless, expanding cycle of “trajectories.” Now that society’s
getabstract
“There is bias in the
illusions of “fixity” and control are obsolete, humans should exercise engaged vigilance
nature of technology over these developments. That will be of more service than clinging to orthodoxy. These
that tilts it in certain pivotal technocultural advances are:
directions and not
others.”
getabstract 1. “Becoming”
The point where technology and culture merge – called the “technium” – keeps evolving.
Unlike a static utopia, or a moribund dystopia, this burgeoning “protopia” drives people to
innovate and grow. The technium’s unquenchable birthing or becoming knows no bounds,
despite the difficulties and challenges it poses. “One aspect of the ceaseless upgrades and
eternal becoming of the technium is to make holes in our heart.”

2. “Cognifying”
getabstract
“The largely Affordable, ubiquitous artificial intelligence (AI) will disrupt every area of human life.
unarticulated but Interlinked cognified objects – each with small amounts of intelligence – will contribute
intuitively understood
goal of sharing to a cloud-based “superorganism” more potent than any lone supercomputer. As people
technology is…to struggle to recognize or localize it, this AI is arriving quietly. For instance, IBM’s Watson
maximize both the
autonomy of the computer rapidly went cloud-based and now self-learns medical diagnostics.
individual and the
power of people
working together.”
On-demand intelligence will become a web service. Granting objects cognition makes them
getabstract smaller, cheaper and more efficient. Digital cameras, for example, use smart algorithms.
Omnipresent AI “smartness” will touch all areas of human endeavor. In 2002, Google co-
founder Larry Page said Google is really about creating an AI; its searches teach and polish
its own AI.

The Inevitable                                                                                                                                                                       getAbstract © 2017 2 of 5

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 The “AI winter,” a time of scant progress, ended with the advent of cheap, parallel-
processing GPUs (graphics processing units) that run neural networks, big data and deep-
learning algorithms. Nobody knows which types of “minds” may emerge: superfast,
superslow, quantum or “half-machine–half-animal symbiont.” For example, people
getabstract
“In 30 years, the most collaborate with AIs in freestyle chess matches as champion hybrid centaurs. AI-driven
important cultural robots will take jobs from people, but at that inflection point, humans may rise to
works and the most
powerful mediums will more-worthwhile challenges. The web acts as a vast copy machine, reproducing and
be those that have been immortalizing data, some of which goes viral by reproducing exponentially. This plethora
remixed the most.”
getabstract of copying creates wealth. “We can’t stop massive indiscriminate copying. Not only would
that sabotage the engine of wealth…but it would halt the Internet itself.”

3. “Flowing”
Algorithm updates flow into your phone: Music, video and social media stream before you.
No longer batched or stored locally, streams and flows arrive in “real time – as do on-
demand services – from the cloud. Once it’s digitized and copyable, music streams cheaply
or for free. Consumers can sample it, edit it, remix it and mash it up – therefore expanding
getabstract its scope through “democratization.”
“We live in a golden
age…the volume of
creative work in the Though not yet remixable like music, e-books’ “fluidity” contrasts with the “fixity”
next decade will dwarf of printed works. All media will flow in four stages – “fixed and rare,” then “free,”
the volume of the last
50 years.” then “flowed and shared,” and finally, “open and becoming.” Knowledge will gain
getabstract dominion over matter. Easy-to-copy things will tend toward being free, while both hard-
to-copy objects and intangible abstractions gain value. Such generative values include
“trust,” “immediacy,” “personalization,” “interpretation,” “authenticity,” “accessibility,”
“embodiment,” “patronage” and “discoverability.”

4. “Screening”
Ancient spoken-word transmission of knowledge gave way to the written word, which
expanded in the 15th century with Gutenberg’s printing press. Expert knowledge and rules
getabstract
“When we enter any are spread in books on law and science, leading to a culture of respect for authority.
of the four billion Now the “People of the Book,” who favor authority, are in conflict with the majority:
screens lit today, we
are participating in one
the tech-driven “People of the Screen.” The concept of the book endures in e-ink ebooks,
open-ended question. including Kindles, but physical traditional paper books are dissolving into screenable
We are all trying to flows. Traditional publishers want to keep e-reader books immutable, but they, too, will
answer, what is it?”
getabstract liquefy. Books stream via social interaction, then merge with all other text and media into a
“universal library.” Screens will tell people the stories of their past and future by provoking
them to dig for information, to act and to think in real time.

5. “Accessing”
In a world of access, ownership matters less than ever. Airbnb owns no houses or hotels;
Netflix viewers never own the movies they watch. Organizations and users don’t need to
getabstract
“The AI on the horizon maintain or store goods, so access replaces ownership. Five trends are hastening the growth
looks more like Amazon of accessing:
Web Services – cheap,
reliable, industrial-
grade digital smartness • “Dematerialization” – Products improve by adding intangibles like algorithms; for
running behind example, you have a small smartphone instead of a brick-size “dumb” phone. Tangible
everything and almost
invisible except when it products – like owned cars – transform into intangibles, streaming as on-demand
blinks off.” services, like Lyft and Uber, to meet diverse needs efficiently.
getabstract
• “Real-time on demand” – “To run in real time, our technological infrastructure needed
to liquefy…Fixed solid things became services.” Uber’s ride-on-demand model points
the way to endlessly scalable real-time or instant services.

The Inevitable                                                                                                                                                                       getAbstract © 2017 3 of 5

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 • “Decentralization” – As an example, Bitcoin decentralizes currency. Its blockchain
cryptographic trust ledger eliminates the need for central bank regulators and guarantors.
• “Platform synergy” – Multifaceted marketing platforms like Facebook, Apple and
getabstract Google sell services. They encourage user marketing based on sharing and application
“Our appetite for the
instant is insatiable. programming interfaces (APIs).
The cost of real-time • “Clouds” – Services based in the ether – “ethereal forces” – ease the demand on local
engagement requires
massive coordination devices and encourage access, collaboration, backup and self-extension.
and…collaboration that
were unthinkable a few
years ago.” 6. “Sharing”
getabstract A strain of “digital social-ism” drives most online activity. This organically emerging,
nonideological socialism decentralizes digital goods and provides them for free. Media
theorist Clay Shirky says sharing will become collectivism in four stages: 1) “simply
sharing” digital goods, 2) practicing “cooperation” via Creative Commons–type licensing
and other means, 3) using “collaboration” to streamline noncommercial projects, and
4) enjoying people-powered “collectivism” to enhance personal autonomy and group
effectiveness. Digital socialism improves outcomes in health care, drug discovery,
getabstract education, and other areas. To serve people better, anarchic collectivism needs controlling.
“The filters have been For instance, Wikipedia cedes its main editing responsibilities to about 1,500 experienced
watching us for years;
they anticipate what users. When scaled-up, collectivism transforms into a hive mind. Crowdsourcing empowers
we will ask. They can innovators. A system for full peer-to-peer shared investments would unlock a further
almost autocomplete it
right now.” productivity boom. Collaborative, collectively owned groups will revolutionize work,
getabstract economies and daily life.

7. “Filtering”
With millions of songs and books, thousands of films, billions of tweets and an array of
lifestyle options – food to taste, places to visit, stocks to invest in – people need filtering
options. Various filters such as “brands, curators, gatekeepers” and friends help shoppers
narrow their choices. “Recommendation engines” – Amazon, Netflix, Spotify, and others
– use algorithms to offer personalization, but they also may trap users in “filter bubbles”
getabstract
“Consumers say showing repetitive results.
they don’t want to be
tracked, but in fact
they keep feeding the
Often unwittingly, users collaborate in refining their own filters, honing Google, Facebook
machine with their data and other platforms simply by using them. The logical outcome of mass personalization
because they want to is “mass customization.” In the near future, you’ll receive customized food, clothing,
claim their benefits.”
getabstract transportation, and more – on demand. In a world of abundant options, attention is scarce
– but advertisers rank it as having low value anyway. Systems like Google AdSense match
and filter to focus attention on relevant ads. Soon, advertisers may pay for your attention.
New filtering and personalization will push people to consider what they want. Filtering
will help you define yourself – to yourself.

8. “Remixing”
This trend gives birth to new genres and subgenres. Consumers and fans remix movies,
getabstract trailers, music, literature, art, commercials, and the like. In this mash-up age, everyone
“A simulated
environment…you plays editor. Actions borrowed from literature – such as paraphrasing a quote – carry over
can enter at will is to other media. This heralds a new “visual literacy.” Readily available content – like Flickr
a recurring science
fiction dream that is photos – provides opportunities to grab, remix and create. AI tech boosts “findability,”
long overdue.” letting people search for images using natural language. “Rewindability” fuels appreciation
getabstract
of visual content. Software lets you undo, so you can return to any previous point in your
work. User remixing challenges intellectual property laws and the concept of owning ideas.
As remixing boosts the prestige of creative works, laws must recognize the added value of
creative transformation of original ideas.

The Inevitable                                                                                                                                                                       getAbstract © 2017 4 of 5

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 9. “Interacting”
Early virtual reality (VR) didn’t live up to its hype. But new versions appeared with the
advent of cheap, powerful, sensor-equipped smartphones. New “light field-projection” VR
technology like Microsoft’s HoloLens will bring realistic VR to the public. “Interaction”
and “presence” make VR hot; users want to immerse in virtual environments, in the style
getabstract
“In this era of of the Star Trek holodeck.
‘becoming,’ everyone
becomes a newbie.
Worse, we will be “Affective technology” systems – including eye and facial expression trackers – let software
newbies forever. assess and respond to people’s emotions. New gesture- and voice-controlled systems
That should keep us
humble.”
increase interactivity. “Wearable” technology places sensors against the skin, while “brain-
getabstract machine interfaces” bring them close to – or even into – the brain – which proves adaptable
to novel input. Immersive, sensor-packed VR will give people unprecedented types of
experiences via first-person viewpoints. Augmented reality “overlays virtual elements
on top of reality.” By the year 2050, “anything that is not intensely interactive will be
considered broken.”

10. “Tracking”
The “quantified self” describes people monitoring their heart rates, caloric intake, diet,
getabstract sleep, genes, mood, and other factors in statistical detail. “Self-measurement” extends into
“‘Protopia’ is a state of people’s working and social lives; some record every keystroke, phone call and email. Some
becoming, rather than
a destination…In the engage in “lifelogging” capturing their lives in a series of videos and photographs – a flow
protopian mode, things of life data, or “lifestream.” Cheap, efficient sensors, batteries and cloud storage power
are better today than…
yesterday, although
user adoption and advances in self-tracking. The Internet of Things will drive tracking to
only a little better.” new levels, impelling citizens to push for transparent “coveillance” to monitor those who
getabstract
monitor the public. People say they want privacy, but relinquish it freely on social media;
unsustainable anonymity will dwindle.

11. “Questioning”
Human nature suggests that a vast, free collaboration like Wikipedia shouldn’t work, but
it does. Globally linked as never before, tech-augmented questioning human and AI minds
will blast through old dogmas into new paradigms. Inevitable disruptions – good and bad –
will see humankind study its core nature. Facts and “antifacts” clamor – in real-time – for
getabstract
“This very large thing attention. Knowledge and unknowns expand as deeper, sharper questions arise. This creates
provides a new way a vast wealth of seemingly “technically impossible” horizons, bringing people to value the
of thinking (perfect
search, total recall, power of constant, fathomless inquiry or debate.
planetary scope) and
a new mind for an
old species. It is the
12. “Beginning”
Beginning.” Earth’s sphere of consciousness – this emergent thing of wires, Wi-Fi, objects imbued with
getabstract
Internet intelligence and billions of human brains – is coalescing into a single vast mind:
the “holos.” Interaction or lack of it strengthens or weakens connections in the holos. By
2025, the holos will include everyone. Some people will benefit more than others; some
will rebel. This “soft singularity” will bring a convergence of humans and machines – a
more fluid existence of perplexities and wonders.
getabstract
getabstract

getabstract
About the Author
getabstract
Cyberculture writer and editor Kevin Kelly worked with Stewart Brand on the Whole Earth Catalog, The Whole
Earth Review and Signal. In 1992, Kelly became executive editor of Wired magazine, where he is now “senior
maverick.” He also wrote New Rules for the New Economy and What Technology Wants.

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