PHOTOVOLTAICS REPORT
Prepared by
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy
Systems, ISE
with support of
PSE Conferences & Consulting GmbH
Freiburg, 14 March 2019
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE
CONTENT
Quick Facts
Topics:
PV Market
Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency
Energy Return of Invest (EROI) & Energy Payback Time (EPBT)
Inverters
Price Development
Abbreviations
Further Studies and Analyses
Acknowledgements
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Introduction
Preliminary Remarks
The intention of this presentation is to provide up-to-date information.
However, facts and figures change rapidly and the given information
may soon be outdated again.
This work has been carried out under the responsibility of Dr. Simon
Philipps (Fraunhofer ISE) and Werner Warmuth (PSE Conferences &
Consulting GmbH).
The slides have been made as accurate as possible and we would be
grateful to receive any comments or suggestions for improvement.
Please send your feedback to
[email protected] and also
to
[email protected] Please quote the information presented in these slides as follows:
©Fraunhofer ISE: Photovoltaics Report, updated: 14 March 2019
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Quick Facts
Parameter Value Status Reference
Germany / EU28 / Worldwide
PV market* 3 / 8 / 100 GW 2018 BNA / SPE / IHS
Cumulative installation* 45.4 / 122.6 / 515 GW End of 2018 BNA / SPE / IHS
PV power generation 38 / 120 / 443 TWh 2017 ISE / BP / BP
PV electricity share 7.2% (net) / gross: 2017 ISE / BP / BP
3.6% / 1.7%
Worldwide
c-Si share of production 95% 2017 IHS
Record solar cell efficiency: 46.0 / 26.7 / 22.3 / 21.7 Dez. 2018 Green et al.
III-V MJ (conc.) / mono-Si / / 21.0%
multi-Si / CIGS / CdTe
Germany
Price PV rooftop system ~ 1400 €/kWp End of 2018 BSW
LCOE PV power plant 4 to 7 ct€ / kWh End of 2017 ISE
PV-Tender Price 4.33 ct€ / kWh Feb. 2018 BNA
4 * Not yet confirmed
© Fraunhofer ISE
Executive Summary
PV Market: Global
Photovoltaics is a fast growing market: The Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) of PV installations was 24% between year 2010 to 2017.
Concerning PV module production in 2017, China&Taiwan hold the lead
with a share of 70%, followed by Rest of Asia-Pacific & Central Asia
(ROAP/CA) with 14.8%. Europe contributed with a share of 3.1%
(compared to 4% in 2016); USA/CAN contributed 3.7%.
In 2017, Europe’s contribution to the total cumulative PV installations
amounted to 28% (compared to 33% in 2016). In contrast, installations in
China accounted for 32% (compared to 26% in 2016).
Si-wafer based PV technology accounted for about 95% of the total
production in 2017. The share of multi-crystalline technology is now
about 62% of total production.
In 2017, the market share of all thin film technologies amounted to
about 5% of the total annual production.
5 Will be updated in late spring 2019 as soon as market and production values of 2018 are confirmed.
© Fraunhofer ISE
Executive Summary
PV Market: Focus Germany
In 2018, Germany accounted for about 9% (45.4 GWp) of the cumulative
PV capacity installed worldwide (515 GWp) with about 1.7 million PV
systems installed in Germany. In 2018 the newly installed capacity in
Germany was about 3.0 GWp; in 2017 it was 1.7 GWp.
PV covered about 7% of Germany’s electricity demand in 2017.
Renewable sources delivered about 38% of the total net power
consumption in 2017 in Germany.
In 2017 about 19 Mio. t CO2 emissions have been avoided due to
38.4 TWh electrical energy generated by PV in Germany.
PV system performance has strongly improved. Before 2000 the typical
Performance Ratio was about 70%, while today it is in the range of
80% to 90%.
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Executive Summary
Solar Cell / Module Efficiencies
The record lab cell efficiency is 26.7% for mono-crystalline and 22.3% for
multi-crystalline silicon wafer-based technology. The highest lab
efficiency in thin film technology is 22.9% for CIGS and 21.0% for CdTe
solar cells.
In the last 10 years, the efficiency of average commercial wafer-based
silicon modules increased from about 12% to 17% (Super-mono 21%). At
the same time, CdTe module efficiency increased from 9% to 16%.
In the laboratory, best performing modules are based on mono-
crystalline silicon with 24.4% efficiency. Record efficiencies demonstrate
the potential for further efficiency increases at the production level.
In the laboratory, high concentration multi-junction solar cells achieve an
efficiency of up to 46.0% today. With concentrator technology, module
efficiencies of up to 38.9% have been reached.
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Executive Summary
Energy Payback Time
Material usage for silicon cells has been reduced significantly during the
last 13 years from around 16 g/Wp to about 4 g/Wp due to increased
efficiencies, thinner wafers and wires as well as larger ingots.
The Energy Payback Time of PV systems is dependent on the
geographical location: PV systems in Northern Europe need around 2.5
years to balance the input energy, while PV systems in the South equal
their energy input after 1.5 years and less, depending on the technology
installed.
A PV system located in Sicily with multi-Si modules has an Energy
Payback Time of around one year. Assuming 20 years lifespan, this kind
of system can produce twenty times the energy needed to produce it.
The Energy Payback Time for CPV-Systems in Southern Europe is less than
1 year.
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Executive Summary
Inverters
Inverter efficiency for state-of-the art brand products 98% and higher.
The market share of string inverters is estimated to be 52%. These
inverters are mostly used in residential, small and medium commercial
applications in PV systems up to 150 kWp. The market share of central
inverters, with applications mostly in large commercial and utility-scale
systems, is about 44%.
A small proportion of the market (about 1%) belongs to micro-inverters
(used on the module level). It is estimated that 3 GWp of DC / DC
converters, also called “power optimizers”, have been installed in 2017.
The specific net retail price of all inverters in Germany is about 12 €-cents
/Wp. Central inverters tend to be cheaper than string inverters.
Trends: New features for grid stabilization and optimization of self-
consumption; storage unit included in the inverter; utilization of
innovative semiconductors (SiC or GaN) which allow very high efficiencies
and compact designs.
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Executive Summary
Price Development
In Germany prices for a typical 10 to 100 kWp PV rooftop-system were
around 14,000 €/kWp in 1990. At the end of 2018, such systems cost
about 1,070 €/kWp in average. This is a net-price regression of about
92% over a period of 28 years and is equivalent to an annual compound
average price reduction rate of 8%.
The Experience Curve – also called Learning Curve - shows that in the last
38 years the module price decreased by 24% with each doubling of the
cumulated module production. Cost reductions result from economies of
scale and technological improvements.
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1. PV Market
By region
By technology
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PV Module Production by Region 1997-2017
Percentage of Total MWp Produced
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: Up to 2009: Navigant Consulting; since 2010: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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PV Industry Production by Region
Global Annual Production
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: Up to 2009: Navigant Consulting; since 2010: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Global Cumulative PV Installation until 2017
(includes off-grid)
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Global Cumulative PV Installation by Region
Status 2017
The total cumulative
installations amounted to
415 GWp at the end of year
2017.
All percentages are related
to total global installations,
including off-grid systems.
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Number of PV Systems Annually Installed in Germany
Percentage of Annual Capacity
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: up to 2008: extrapolation from utilities data; since 2009: Bundesnetzagentur. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Share of Capacity and Number of PV-Systems Installed
Percentage of Cumulative Installations in Germany
© Fraunhofer ISE © Fraunhofer ISE
While the larger PV-systems account for about a third of the total installed
capacity, the number of large-scale systems with more than 500 kWp is only
about 1% of the total installed systems.
Data: Bundesnetzagentur. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Electrical Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources
Germany
© Fraunhofer ISE
In 2017 about 36% (210 TWh) of the electricity in Germany was generated by renewable energy
(RE) sources according to BMWi.
Data: BMWi / AGEE-Stat.; Data up to 2012: BMU, BDEW; Data electricity generation: energy Charts by Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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PV Energy Generated and Resulting CO2 Avoided Emissions
Germany
© Fraunhofer ISE
In 2017 about 19 Mio. t of CO2 emissions were avoided due to 38.4 TWh PV
electricity consumed in Germany.
According to the Federal Environmental Ageny (UBA) the CO2 avoidance
factor of PV in 2017 is 489 grams of CO2-eq /kWhel.
Data: BMU, BDEW, BMWi, Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) 2018. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Annual PV Production by Technology
Worldwide (in GWp)
About 97.5* GWp PV module production in 2017
2015
Thin film
2010 Mono-Si
© Fraunhofer ISE
Multi-Si
2005
*2017 production numbers reported by
different analysts vary to some extend.
We estimate that total PV module
production is realistically around 97.5
GWp for year 2017. 2000
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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© Fraunhofer ISE
PV Production by Technology
Percentage of Global Annual Production
Production 2017 (GWp)
Thin film 4.5
Multi-Si 60.8
Mono-Si 32.2
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS (Mono-/Multi- proportion from cell production). Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Market Share of Thin-Film Technologies
Percentage of Total Global PV Production
Production 2017 (GWp)
CdTe 2.3
a-Si 0.3
CI(G)S 1.9
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Thin-Film Technologies
Annual Global PV Module Production
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Low and High Concentrator PV Systems (LCPV/HCPV)
Annually Installed Capacity
© Fraunhofer ISE
LCPV and HCPV have concentration factors below 100 suns and from 300 up to 1000
suns, respectively. Data: ISE 2018
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For more details on CPV see ISE/NREL Report: Current Status of
© Fraunhofer ISE
Concentrator Photovoltaics (CPV) Technology
2. Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency
Development in the PV Industry
Development in the Laboratories
High Concentration Photovoltaics (HCPV)
Performance Ratio (PR)
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Efficiency Comparison of Technologies:
Best Lab Cells vs. Best Lab Modules
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: Green et al.: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 53), Progress in PV: Research and Applications 2018. Graph: Fraunhofer ISE 2019
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Development of Laboratory Solar Cell Efficiencies
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Versions 1 to 53), Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 1993-2018. Graph: Fraunhofer ISE 2019
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Average Crystalline-Silicon PV Module Efficiency
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data source: IHS Markit 2019
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Performance Ratio Development for PV Systems
Germany
In the 1990’s
Typical PR ~70 %
Widely ranging PR
values
Today
Typical PR ~80-90 %
© Fraunhofer ISE Less variance in PR
as compared to
1990’s
Source: Fraunhofer ISE “1000 Dächer Jahresbericht“ 1994 and 1997; 2011 system evaluation
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© Fraunhofer ISE
3. Energy Return of Invest (EROI) & Energy Payback Time
(EPBT)
Silicon usage, wafer thickness and kerf loss for c-Si
EPBT: Development and comparison
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c-Si Solar Cell Development
Wafer Thickness [μm] & Silicon Usage [g/Wp]
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: until 2012: EU PV Technology Platform Strategic Research Agenda, from 2012: ITRPV 2015; ISE 2016 without and 2017 with recycling of Si. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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Historic Trend in Energy Payback Time of Crystalline
Silicon PV Modules
Depending on the EPBT of multicrystalline PV rooftop
technology and location systems installed in Southern Europe*
of the PV system, the
EPBT today ranges from
0.7 to 2 years.
Rooftop PV systems
produce net clean
electricity for approx.
95 % of their lifetime,
assuming a life span of
30 years or more. *Irradiation: 1700 kWh/m²/a at an optimized tilt angle
Data: EPIA Sustainability Working Group Fact Sheet 2011; since 2010: M.J. de Wild-Scholten 2013. Graph: PSE 2014
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Energy Pay-Back Time for PV and CPV Systems
Different Technologies located in Catania, Sicily, Italy
Global Irrad.: 1925 kWh/m²/yr, Direct Normal Irrad.: 1794 kWh/m²/yr
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: M.J. de Wild-Scholten 2013; CPV data: “Environmental Sustainability of Concentrator PV Systems: Preliminary LCA Results of
the Apollon Project“ 5th World Conference on PV Energy Conversion. Valencia, Spain, 6-10 September 2010. Graph: PSE 2014
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Energy Pay-Back Time of Rooftop PV Systems
Different Technologies located in Germany
Global Irrad.: 1000 kWh/m²/yr
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: M.J. de Wild-Scholten 2013. Graph: PSE 2014
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Energy Pay-Back Time of Multicrystalline Silicon PV
Rooftop Systems - Geographical Comparison
Irradiation (kWh/m²/a) EPBT
<600
800
1000 2.1 years
1200
1400
1600
1.2 years
1800
2000
>2200
Data: M.J. de Wild-Scholten 2013. Image: JRC European Commision. Graph: PSE 2014 (Modified scale with updated data from PSE and FraunhoferISE)
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4. Inverters
Inverter/Converter Price
Inverter Concept Comparison
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Inverter/Converter Market 2017
Market
Inverter /
Power Efficiency Share Remarks
Converter
(Estimated)
String Inverters up to 150 kWp up to 98% ~ 52% • 6 - 17 €-cents /Wp
• Easy to replace
Central Inverters More than 80 kWp up to 98.5% ~ 44% • ~ 5 €-cents /Wp
• High reliability
• Often sold only together with
service contract
Micro-Inverters Module Power 90%-95% ~ 1% • ~ 28 €-cents /Wp
Range • Ease-of-replacement concerns
DC / DC Module Power up to 98.8% ~ 3% • ~ 9 €-cents /Wp
Converters Range • Ease-of-replacement concerns
(Power • Output is DC with optimized
Optimizer) current
• Still a DC / AC inverter is needed
• ~ 3 GWp installed in 2017
Data: IHS 2016. Remarks: Fraunhofer ISE 2018. Design: PSE GmbH 2018
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5. Price Development
Electricity costs
Costs for rooftop systems
Market incentives in Germany
Price Learning Curve
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Electricity Prices, PV Feed-In Tariffs (FIT) and
bidding scheme in Germany
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: BMU, EEG 2018 and BMWi Energiedaten. Design: B. Burger - Fraunhofer ISE , Update: 12 Mar. 2019
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Investment for Small Rooftop PV Systems in Relation to
Market Development and Subsidy Schemes in Germany
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: BSW-Solar, BNA. Graph: PSE GmbH 2019
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Average Price for PV Rooftop Systems in Germany
(10kWp - 100kWp)
BOS incl. Inverter
© Fraunhofer ISE
Percentage of
the Total Cost
Modules
Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE GmbH 2019
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© Fraunhofer ISE
PV-Tender in Germany
Average, quantity weighted Award Value
Lowest PV-Tender
Round in Feb. 2018:
4.33 ct€ / kWh as
average quantity
weighted award price
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: BNA. Graph: PSE GmbH 2019
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Price Learning Curve
Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies
Learning Rate:
Each time the
cumulative production
doubled, the price
went down by 24 %
for the last 38 years.
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources : Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2019
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Price Learning Curve by Technology
Cumulative Production up to Q4. 2017
Estimated cumulative
production
up to Q4, 2017 :
c-Si 405 GWp
Thin Film 33 GWp
Crystalline Technology
(from Q2-2006 to Q4-2017) LR 29
Thin Film Technology
(from Q2-2006 to Q4-2017) LR 25
© Fraunhofer ISE
Data: from 2006 to 2010 estimation from different sources : Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Further Reading
Selected studies and analyses
ISE Energy Charts
Study: Levelized Cost of Electricity - Renewable Energy Technologies
Recent facts about photovoltaics in Germany
Power Generation from Renewable Energy in Germany - Assessment of
2017
What will the Energy Transformation Cost? Pathways for Transforming
the German Energy System by 2050
Meta Study: Future Crosssectoral Decarbonization Target Systems in
Comparison to Current Status of Technologies
Study: Current Status of Concentrator Photovoltaic (CPV) Technology
Please click on the link to find the respective information.
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Abbreviations
Abbr. Explanation Abbr. Explanation
AC Alternating Current HCPV High Concentrator Photovoltaic
Al-BSF Aluminum Back Surface Field HJT (also HIT) Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-Layer
BIPV Building Integrated PV IBC Interdigitated Back Contact (solar cells)
BOS Balance of System LCPV Low Concentrator Photovoltaic
CdTe Cadmium-Telluride MJ Multi Junction
CI(G)S Copper Indium (Gallium)Diselenide MPP Maximum Power Point
Negatively doped wafer (with
CPV Concentrating Photovoltaic n-type
phosphorous)
c-SI Crystalline Silicon PERX Passivated emitter and rear cell
Cz Czochralski Method PR Performance Ratio
DC Direct current p-type Positively doped wafer (with boron)
Renewable Energy Law
EEG PV Photovoltaic
(Erneuerbare Energie Gesetz)
EPBT Energy PayBack Time RE Renewable Energies
EROI Energy Return of Invest ROI Return on Investment
FZ Floating Zone SI Silicon
GaAs Gallium Arsenide SIC Silicon carbide
GaN Gallium nitride VAT Value Added Tax
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Acknowledgements
This work has been carried out
with contributions from:
Name Institution The information provided in this
Bruno Burger ISE ‚Photovoltaics Report‘ is very concise by its
Klaus Kiefer ISE nature and the purpose is to provide a
Christoph Kost ISE rough overview about the Solar PV market,
Sebastian Nold ISE the technology and environmental impact.
Simon Philipps ISE
Ralf Preu ISE
There are many more aspects and further
Jochen Rentsch ISE details can be provided by Fraunhofer ISE.
Thomas Schlegl ISE Upon request, you are welcome to receive
Gerhard Stryi-Hipp ISE a tailor-made offer.
Gerhard Willeke ISE
Please contact us if you are interested in
Harry Wirth ISE
ordering this service.
Werner Warmuth PSE
[email protected] [email protected]48
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