Gabriel Harp
Design Ecologist | Service Designer
CSTEP
16 Nov 2010
Looking Back, Looking Forward
Introduction
Proposition 1: Platforms for Engagement
Proposition 2: Design for Decision Making + Action
Proposition 3: Imagining the Future, Seeing the Consequences
Infrastructure includes built, ad hoc, designed,
and “natural” environments.
Infrastructures
=
pervasive enabling resources
(Bowker et al., 2009).
The social includes people
and a whole lot more
Bowker, G. C., Baker, K. S., Millerand, F. and Ribes, D. (2009) ‘Towards Informa-
tion Infrastructure Studies: Ways of Knowing in a Networked Environment’,
in J.D. Hunsinger, M. Allen and L. Klastrup (eds), International Handbook of
Internet Research: Springer.
g Oil Fruit Veg
Fishing egetable Oils
Garrments Cereals
Paper & Wood
Coff
ffee
Metals Mining
&
Cocoaa Textiles Machinery
Chemicals
Cattle Electronics
Image: http://www.chidalgo.com/productspace/
Image: Hidalgo CA. Klinger B, Barabasi A-L, Hausmann.R, Science 317, 482-487 (2007) http://www.chidalgo.com/productspace/
China
Garments
Electric Motor
and Machine Parts
Textiles
Electronics
Revealed Comparative Advantage
UNITED
Forest Products STATES
Machinery Vehicles
Chemicals
Electronics
GERMANY
Medicine
Iron/Steel
Machinery Vehicles
Chemicals
Fishing Fruits
Chile
Forest Products
Mining
INDIA
Garments
Iron/Steel
Textiles
Chemicals
What are the processes through which we find as yet
unexplored combinations of capabilities we already have?
How do we accumulate new capabilities and
combine them with other previously available
capabilities to develop better services?
Burt, R. S. (2005). Brokerage and Closure: An Introduction to Social Capital. Oxford University Press.
Network Entrepreneurs
Help individuals in different groups become aware of the
other perspectives
Transfer practices that can create value
Draw analogies
Synthesize new behaviors and beliefs that combine the
concerns of multiple groups
Burt, R. S. (2005). Brokerage and Closure: An Introduction to Social Capital. Oxford University Press.
Public responses to the question:
“Humans, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.”
60.00 1985,
40.00 1988
True
False
Mean of the Response
Modal Age
60.00 Switch Point
1990,
40.00 1992
60.00 1995,
40.00 1997 “A new scientific truth
does not triumph by
convincing its opponents
60.00 1999,
2001
and making them see the
40.00
light, but rather because
its opponents eventually
60.00 2004, die, and a new generation
40.00 2006 grows up that is familiar
with it.”
18- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65+
19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 -Max Planck, 1948*
Age of Respondant
Data: NSF Science and Engineering Indicators * Wissenschaftliche Selbstbiographie. Mit einem Bildnis und der von Max von Laue
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/ gehaltenen Traueransprache., Johann Ambrosius Barth Verlag, (Leipzig 1948), p. 22, as
General Social Survey 1979-2004, 2006 translated in Scientific Autobiography and Other Papers, trans. F. Gaynor (New York,
1949), pp.33-34 (as cited in T.S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions).
Drawing from Evolutionary Genetics:
The Shifting Balance of Design Practice
Phase 1, the exploratory phase,
The action of small groups explores new
combinations.
Most stay on the suboptimal fitness peak
(reasonably successful), but some get caught
in adaptive valleys (unsuccessful).
Wright., S. Evolution and the Genet-
ics of Populations. Vol. 3: Experimental
Results and Evolutionary Deductions
(Chicago, University of Chicago
Press, 1977)
The Shifting Balance of
Design Practice
In Phase 2, selection causes the
groups that are in the adaptive valleys to
move toward new, higher-fitness peaks.
The Shifting Balance of
Design Practice
Finally, in phase 3, groups at higher
fitness peaks send off migrants
helping other groups move to higher
fitness peaks.
“Natural Selection”
Darwin appropriated ‘selection’
to reach across the disciplines.
(breeding + religion)
but: a problem of teleology, individual will,
and anthropomorphism
Natural Attachment
connecting networks and landscapes
-or- society and infrastructure
Quantitative Variation in Aspirational Capacity
a simple model of attachment using network graphs
poverty: few attachments wealth: many attachment alternatives
limited variation in quality and quantity aspirational capability in number and breadth
choices leave room
for experimentation
among alternatives
fewer alternatives
among social, material,
and conceptual links
thick links thin links
social
material
social , Based in part on:
conceptual
< > economic,
technological
> < social , economic,
technological pressure Appadurai, A., 2004, ‘The Capacity
agency to Aspire: Culture and the Terms of
Recognition’, in Rao,V. and Walton,
alternative breadth in consumption practices constrained quality of attachments M., (eds.) Culture and Public Action,
networks and/or limited use practices Stanford University Press, Palo Alto,
California, pp 59-84.
Beinhocker, E. D. (2006). The origin
of wealth: evolution, complexity, and
the radical remaking of economics.
Harvard Business Press.
Introduction
Proposition 1: Platforms for Engagement
Proposition 2: Design for Decision Making + Action
Proposition 3: Imagining the Future, Seeing the Consequences
Paticipation
migratory + influential
ownership
goal settng
enable implementation
feedback of information
information extraction
Adapted from : Conde, C., Lonsdale, K., Nyong, A., & Aguilar, I. (2004). Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process.
Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: Developing strategies, policies and measures, 47–66.
high
Post-Normal
Science
Decision Stakes Professional
(Values) Consultancy
Applied
Science
Core
Science
low high
Systems Uncertainties
(Knowledge)
Funtowicz, S., & Ravetz, J. (1995). Science for the post-
normal age. Perspectives on Ecological Integrity, 34-48.
Integrated assessment
multiple scales, stakeholders, disciplines,
and bottom lines
Futuring
open discussion on contested and uncer-
tain topics about long-term temporal issues
using exploratory techniques and framings
of multiple realities for irresolvable trade-
offs
Dialogic accountings
open and transparent decision-making
articulating costs and benefits at multiples
levels, engaging the motivations of different
stakeholders to prevents premature clo-
sure on issues through debate and dialogue
for a genuine and informed citizenry with
participation in decision-making processes
Other multi-actor heuristics
bridging organisations
convergence and divergence
Frame, B., & Brown, J. (2008). Ecological Economics, 65(2), 225-241.
three types of public witnessing of science:
direct performance: observation
imagine if the laboratory were a church, temple, bus stand, or public square
reporting experimental methods: replication
primary journal articles that recount the plot
virtual witnessing: cognition
a story in someone’s mind constructed from the plot
Shapin, S., & Schaffer, S. (1989).
Leviathan and the Air-Pump.
Princeton University Press.
Pure suspense Impure Suspense
Locations I move unrestricted between vantage points and I stay highly local and subjective.
locations.
Points of view My perspective is omniscient and wide-ranging. I get different sources of information through the
eyes of the others.
I tell everyone what is happening everywhere.
I keep some people informed and others in the
dark.
Time My day is prolonged by tension and arbitrary Deadlines are set early in the day and acceleration
delay. commonly heightens my emotional state.
Emotional states I have anxious uncertainty and an increased ex- I am alertly attentive, experiencing empathy for
pectation of a bad outcome as a deadline looms. others.
Knowledge Production The person in charge chooses and focuses at- I cooperate with the information provided to learn
tention on the priorities. what to do next.
Expectations I can explicitly identify a threat. I sense an outcome before others.
I am frequently Surprised I fill in blanks with sources of meaning that haven’t
been provided.
Moral outcome? I favor the best outcome – like what happens in The best outcome is less certain and often unreal-
popular media. ized.
Based on Allen, R. (2007). Hitchcock’s Romantic Irony. Columbia University Press.
deploying participatory Web 2.0 technologies (such as social
networks, wikis, and microblogs) to create networked organi-
zations that foster innovative collaboration among employ-
ees, customers, and business partners...
...is highly correlated with market share gains
“How companies are benefiting from Web 2.0: McKinsey Global Survey Results,” mckinseyquarterly.com, September 2009.
Distributed cocreation moves into the mainstream
Making the network the organization
Collaboration at scale
TRENDS!
Experimentation and big data
Imagining anything as a service
The age of the multisided business model
Producing public good on the grid
“Somebody said that the skies use to be-
long to everyone equally, but now that sci-
ence, scientists and scientific instruments
have discovered so much more, when we
look at the skies we are ignorant.We know
that what science knows is way beyond us.
The cities too have taken away the stars
that we could know.”
-heard by Satellite Investigator
photos/work: Joanna Griffin
physical platform
no feedback
photos/work: Joanna Griffin
Connect with Society Here
Introduction
Proposition 1: Platforms for Engagement
Proposition 2: Design for Decision Making + Action
Proposition 3: Imagining the Future, Seeing the Consequences
Culture
allows the uptake of processes, procedures,
information, beliefs, and values
culture ≠ nouns
culture = the verbs to acquire new nouns
from “what” to “how + where”
Atran, S., Medin, D. & Ross, N. The cultural mind: Environmental decision making and cultural
modeling within and across populations. Psychological Review 112:744-776, 2005.
Culture is Consumption
acquisition
scripting
appropriation
assemby
normalization
practice
Ingram, J., Shove, E., & Watson, M. (2007). Products and Practices: Selected Concepts from
Science and Technology Studies and from Social Theories of Consumption and Practice.
Design Issues, 23(2), 3-16.
Natural Attachment
connecting networks and landscapes
-or- society and infrastructure
What is a cognitive bias?
Cognitive biases are psychological tendencies
that cause the human brain to draw incorrect
conclusions.
Such biases are thought to be a form of "cognitive
shortcut", often based upon rules of thumb, and
include errors in statistical judgment, social
attribution, and memory.
These biases are a common outcome of human
thought, and often drastically skew the reliability of
anecdotal and legal evidence. The phenomenon is
studied in cognitive science and social psychology.
Quoted from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias
conte
nts
social biases memory biases
decision-making biases probability /belief biases
Quoted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
8* memory biases 8* memory biases
Suggestibility Rosy retrospection
A form of misattribution where The tendency to rate past events
ideas suggested by a questioner more positively than they had actually
are mistaken for memory. rated them when the event occurred.
Reminiscence bump Self-serving bias
The effect that people tend to Perceiving oneself responsible for
recall more personal events from desirable outcomes but not
adolescence and early adulthood responsible for undesirable ones.
than from other lifetime periods.
Egocentric bias
Cryptomnesia / Recalling the past in a
False memory self-serving manner, e.g.
A form of misattribution where a remembering one's exam grades
memory is mistaken for imagination, as being better than they were, or
or the confusion of true memories remembering a caught fish as
with false memories. being bigger than it was.
Hindsight bias
Consistency bias Filtering memory of past events
Incorrectly remembering one's past through present knowledge, so that
attitudes and behavior as resembling those events look more predictable
present attitudes and behavior. than they actually were; also known as
the 'I-knew-it-all-along effect'.
*number listed here is not an academic fact, it is simply listed to aid the memorization process.
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it
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Uncertainty
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ha
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nd
Ge
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Co
Po
Ph
Be
Ag
Ec
La
Ar
Genetic
Cognition Motivation
Mediation
Coordination
Phenotype
Behavior
Aggregations
Efficiency Robustness
Artifacts
Population x2 for Directed Networks
Operation/
Contingency
Community
Landscape
Ecosystem
Zimbardo, P.G. & Boyd, J.N. (1999). Putting
time in perspective: A valid, reliable individual
differences metric. Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology, 77, 1271-1288.
Zimbardo, P.G. & Boyd, J.N. (1999). Putting
time in perspective: A valid, reliable individual
differences metric. Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology, 77, 1271-1288.
Zimbardo, P.G. & Boyd, J.N. (1999). Putting
time in perspective: A valid, reliable individual
differences metric. Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology, 77, 1271-1288.
Information, Network Reciprocity & Preferences
7 links 3 links 1 link
Fewer Constraints Increasing Constraints
Greater Costs Fewer Costs
networks form when the
(benefits / costs) is greater
than number of neighbors
Introduction
Proposition 1: Platforms for Engagement
Proposition 2: Design for Decision Making + Action
Proposition 3: Imagining the Future, Seeing the Consequences
Table 1: State Vari ables an d Scales:
Elem ent What the Eleme nt Represents Ex am ples
Actors or Who and What is c ontri buting to the heal th People, vector, disease
Agents outc om e? agent, pat hw ay (air, water,
food)
Ob jectives What are “W ho and What's” goal s? Reproduce, stay alive, find a
mate, eat, find h abitat
Pro cedures Ho w do they achieve their g oals? For a mosqui to: find a mate,
get b lood meal, lay eggs
Rules What rules or const raints help or hinder Kno wn transmiss ion
them? mechani sms, vect oral
capacity, physical and
bio logi cal laws, soc ial norms
and regulations
Reso urces What resources do they have? Favorable envir onm ental
con dition (e.g. tem p);
habitat, good heal th,
eco no mic agency, seas onality
Conflict What conflicts play out? Access to fo od, access to
mates, access to habitat,
likel ihood of infection
Boundar ies What are the boundar ies of the Geographic boundaries
inte raction s? bas ed on know n factors of
where things occ ur (e.g. fish
in wate r), conc eptual, social
(caste), t iming (seasonality of
vector p resence)
Outc om es Descri be the outc om e (per conflict). Infection/ non-infection,
nutrit ion/malnutriti on,
stress/stroke
How Climate Impacts Human Health
DIRECT IMPACTS
INDIRECT IMPACTS
ENVIRONMENTALLY
MEDIATED
INDIRECT IMPACTS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
MEDIATED
Source: McMichael et al, 1998
Climate-Health Game
GOALS
1) Correctly anticipate the interactions between climate and health.
2) Gain accuracy in your responsiveness to the challenges.
Anticipate:
team makes bets with their political capital
Prepare:
team provides messages with social capital
Respond:
team allocates resources with economic capital
Positive Emotion,
Relationships,
Meaning, and
Accomplishment.
Aliya Pabani
To The Source
Hari Shankar
Responder
Hari Shankar
Responder
THE CHALLENGE:
“If you can’t measure it, you can’t improve it.” — Lord Kelvin
Pick something good that can be measured.
Make a game to improve it.
Games allow us to:
• set clear goals,
• share rules that forbid the most efficient way of achieving those goals,
and
• introduce players’ cheerful willingness to accept the rules, knowing that
they are what will make the game fun
Saturday, Nov. 20th
10 am - ??? @ CSTEP
Yeah! Food!
Thank
You!
