Intermodal Weekly Market Report 3rd February 2015, Week 5
Intermodal Weekly Market Report 3rd February 2015, Week 5
By Linos Kogevinas Where does it stop? This seems to be the question in the mind of every-
one with regards to the downward trend in the Dry Bulk market, while
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency the BDI has been flirting with new historical lows on the back of thin
trading across all size segments. The BDI closed today (03/02/2015) at
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
577 points, down by 13 points compared to Monday’s levels
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many (02/02/2015) and a decrease of 111 points compared to previous Tues-
and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its produc- day’s closing (27/01/2015). As activity in the crude carriers market
tion target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to pre- scaled back last week so did rates, while the Suezmax segment outper-
serve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely formed the rest of the market on the back of strong European demand.
be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plum- The BDTI Monday (02/02/2015) was at 894 points, an increase of 5
met the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market points and the BCTI at 669, a decrease of 29 points compared to previ-
forces. ous Monday’s (26/01/2015) levels.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form Sale & Purchase (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Soft - )
of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd SnP activity sustained its volume last week, with slightly increased inter-
during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the est in dry bulk second-hand tonnage, Sellers of which appear to have
future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which started succumbing to pressure for even deeper discounts. On the tank-
could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge er side, we had the en-bloc sale of the “CHAPTER GENTA” (156,480dwt-
upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term). blt 11, China) and the “ROXEN STAR” (156,436dwt-blt 09, China) , which
was picked up by Norwegian owner Frontline, for a US$ 49.7m and
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging
US$46.3m respectively. On the dry bulker side, we had the sale of the
between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have
“MARITIME TABONEO” (76,302dwt-blt 04, Japan), which went to Greek
finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the
owner Cyprus Maritime, for a price of $ 10.7m.
Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case.
He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil Newbuilding (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A Activity in the newbuilding market remained at the same levels last
bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the week, with tankers and gas tankers still making up for the biggest share
Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy chang- of the recently reported orders. In the case of tankers, there is still a
es or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target. clear preference towards VLCC and Suezmax units, while despite the
overall downward trend in newbuilding prices we are seeing that in both
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his
these segments the orders that are coming through reveal a tendency
certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This
for prices to go up rather than down. As far as dry bulk units are con-
prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able
cerned, the situation is pretty much unchanged, with limited ordering
to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it
interest remaining the main driver behind the softening market. We
accordingly.
expect things over at the dry bulker side to quieten further during Feb-
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels ruary, while in terms of prices, it seems that there could easily be some
are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both room for further discounts and as long as the freight market is not
claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the showing any signs of an imminent improvement that could get buyers
most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices back into action. In terms of recently reported deals, Taiwanese owner,
will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems Sincere Navigation, has placed an order, for one firm VLCC (319,000dwt)
doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst rag- at SWS, in China, for a price of $ 95.0m each and delivery set in 2017.
ing market pressure.
Demolition (Wet: Soft - / Dry: Soft - )
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future
The demolition market remains under pressure, with last week being
oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With
another stressful one for demo market players who have been watching
current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of under-
prices falling further, while as long as cheap Chinese scrap steel keeps
investment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medi-
entering the Indian subcontinent market without any restrictions, hopes
um to long term future.
for an upward correction remain futile. Nonetheless and despite the
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies negative sentiment that still prevails in the market we are witnessing an
on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the increased number of deals coming through week over week, which
resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil means that more and more breakers are willing to risk and position
market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil themselves in the current market. Additionally, dry bulk owners who
and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and were previously considering the demolition option, now seem more
we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better convinced and in some cases even “rushed” by the continuously soften-
hedged against adverse market developments. ing demo prices, especially as the performance of the market remains
extremely challenging. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were
at around 245-420 $/ldt and dry units received about 220-400 $/ldt.
Wet Market
Spot Rates Indicative Period Charters
Week 5 Week 4 2014 2013
$/day - 12 mos - 'SERENADE' 2009 107,000 dwt
Vessel Routes WS WS
$/day $/day ±% $/day $/day - - $22,000/day - Jellicoe
points points
265k MEG-JAPAN 62.0 64,009 69.0 74,455 -14.0% 30,469 21,133 -24 mos - 'New JOVIALITY ' 2011 318,000 dwt
VLCC
WS poi nts
80k MEG-EAST 115 36,979 112.5 35,481 4.2% 19,956 11,945 170
Aframax
55K MED-USG 150.0 34,048 155.0 36,526 -6.8% 21,089 12,642 TC2 TC4 TC6 TC1 CLEAN - WS RATES
240
50k CARIBS-USAC 170.0 35,742 147.5 30,210 18.3% 25,521 15,083 220
200
180
WS poi nts
160
140
TC Rates 120
100
$/day Week 5 Week 4 ±% Diff 2014 2013 80
60
300k 1yr TC 45,000 45,000 0.0% 0 28,346 20,087
VLCC
300k 3yr TC 40,000 40,000 0.0% 0 30,383 23,594
150k 1yr TC 32,000 32,000 0.0% 0 22,942 16,264
Suezmax
150k 3yr TC 30,000 30,000 0.0% 0 24,613 18,296
110k 1yr TC 23,000 23,000 0.0% 0 17,769 13,534 Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Tankers
Aframax
110k 3yr TC 23,000 23,000 0.0% 0 19,229 15,248
Vessel 5yrs old Jan-15 Dec-14 ±% 2014 2013 2012
75k 1yr TC 20,250 20,250 0.0% 0 16,135 15,221
Panamax VLCC 300KT DH 79.8 77.0 3.6% 73.6 56.2 62.9
75k 3yr TC 18,000 18,000 0.0% 0 16,666 15,729
52k 1yr TC 15,000 15,000 0.0% 0 14,889 14,591 Suezmax 150KT DH 58.4 56.5 3.4% 50.2 40.1 44.9
MR
52k 3yr TC 15,250 15,250 0.0% 0 15,604 15,263 Aframax 110KT DH 44.5 42.0 6.0% 38.6 29.2 31.2
Handy 36k 1yr TC 13,750 13,750 0.0% 0 14,024 13,298 LR1 75KT DH 34.8 32.9 5.9% 32.8 28.0 26.7
size 36k 3yr TC 14,000 14,000 0.0% 0 14,878 13,907 MR 52KT DH 25.5 24.4 4.6% 27.2 24.7 24.6
Index
2,500
2,000
1,500
Period 1,000
500
Week Week 0
$/day ±% Diff 2014 2013
5 4
170K 6mnt TC 8,750 9,250 -5.4% -500 22,020 17,625
Capesize
45,000 AVR 4TC BCI AVR 4TC BPI AVR 5TC BSI AVR 6TC BHSI
76K 1yr TC 8,000 8,250 -3.0% -250 12,259 10,300 40,000
76K 3yr TC 10,500 10,750 -2.3% -250 13,244 10,317 35,000
30,000
55K 6mnt TC 8,000 8,500 -5.9% -500 12,008 11,565
25,000
$/day
Chartering
Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Bulk Carriers
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one
look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the Vessel 5 yrs old Jan-15 Dec-14 ±% 2014 2013 2012
Dry Bulk market remains under. The BDI has now fallen to below 600 Capesize 180k 38.1 39.9 -4.5% 47.3 35.8 34.6
points, a level close to the index's historic low and one that leaves very little Panamax 76K 19.6 20.1 -2.6% 24.5 21.3 22.7
hope that the market could witness a significant rebound before the end of Supramax 56k 20.5 21.1 -3.0% 24.7 21.5 23.0
the first quarter. In regards to the following weeks we expect further down-
Handysize 30K 16.5 17.0 -2.9% 19.5 18.2 18.2
ward pressure as owners ballasting in the East will most probably accept
further discounts in order to “avoid” fixing in an even quieter market dur- Sale & Purchase
ing the Chinese New Year holidays season.
In the Panamax sector, we had the sale of the “MARITIME TABO-
Rates for Capes succumbed to the pressure that started building up at the NEO” (76,302dwt-blt 04, Japan), which went to Greek owner Cyprus Mari-
end of the week prior and quickly gave up a significant portion of the re- time, for a price of $ 10.7m.
cently upside gained. Enquiry in both the Atlantic and Pacific remains very
In the Handysize sector we had the sale of the “ATLANTIC
quiet while market talk that there are signs of the majors slowly returning
PEARL” (33,399dwt-blt 10, Japan), which was sold to Greek buyers for
back into action have not been confirmed so far.
$16.0m.
Both rates and activity continue to soften in the Panamax segment as well.
NoPac rounds were still very short in supply at the end of last week, while
more frequent cargoes to India were providing some support to rates in the
region. The Atlantic Panamax has at the same time seen numbers well be-
low $ 4,000/day with further discounts being noted in the period market as
well.
SAINTY
PROD/ Ni geri a n
RAISSA 17,803 2014 SHIPBUILDING YI, MAN-B&W DH $ 18.0m
CHEM (Shorel i nk)
Chi na
ZHEJIANG US ba s ed (Si no-
PROD/
RONG ZHOU 13,898 2010 RICHLAND SHIP, MAN-B&W Jul -15 DH $ 10.5m Gl oba l Shi ppi ng
CHEM
Chi na Ameri ca )
ZHEJIANG
Chi nes e en-bl oc Greek
SMALL NEPHELI 3,416 2009 HONGGUAN SHIP, DH bi tumen ca rri ers
Std. Type undi s cl os ed (Newl ea d)
Chi na
Bulk Carriers
Size Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments
IMABARI
MARITIME 4 X 30t Greek (Cyprus
PMAX 76,302 2004 MARUGAME, B&W Ma r-19 $ 10.7m
TABONEO CRANES Ma ri time)
Ja pa n
OSHIMA
4 X 25t
HMAX GEETA 42,469 1990 SHIPBUILDING, Sul zer Feb-15 $ 2.8m undi s cl os ed SS due
CRANES
Ja pa n
IMABARI 4 X 30,5t
HANDY BIRCH 4 25,369 2000 B&W Aug-17 $ 5.4m undi s cl os ed
IMABARI, Ja pa n CRANES
Reefers
Name Dwt Built Yard M/E Cu Ft Gear SS due Price Buyers Comments
GDANSKA 2 X 32t
URUGUAY STAR 10587 1,993 STOCZNIA SA, Sul zer 14843 CRS,2 X 8t $ 5.0m
Pol a nd CRS
undi s cl os ed
GDANSKA 2 X 32t
CHILE STAR 10582 1,993 STOCZNIA SA, Sul zer 14775 CRS,2 X 8t $ 5.0m
Pol a nd CRS
that are coming through reveal a tendency for prices to go up rather than
Panamax 77k 29.0 29.0 0.0% 29.2 26 27 down. As far as dry bulk units are concerned, the situation is pretty much
Ultramax 63k 27.0 27.0 0.0% 27 25 25 unchanged, with limited ordering interest remaining the main driver behind
Handysize 38k 23.0 23.0 0.0% 23 21 22 the softening market. We expect things over at the dry bulker side to quieten
VLCC 300k 96.5 96.5 0.0% 98.6 91 96 further during February, while in terms of prices, it seems that there could
easily be some room for further discounts and as long as the freight market
Tankers
70
100
50
60 30
20 10
Newbuilding Orders
Units Type Size Yard Delivery Buyer Price Comments
2 Tanker 319,000 dwt Daewoo, S.Korea 2017 Greek $ 99.0m
Taiwanese (Sincere
1 Tanker 319,000 dwt SWS, China 2017 $ 95.0m
Navigation)
2+2 Tanker 158,000 dwt Hyundai, S. Korea 2017 Egyptian (AMPTC) undisclosed product tankers
2016 Japanese(Mitsui O.S.K. ore carriers, shallow
3 Bulker 240,000 dwt Imabari, Japan $ 60.0m
onwards Lines) shaft
LNG, 25 yrs T/C to
1 Gas 177,000 cbm Mitsubishi, Japan Apr-2018 Japanese (NYK) undisclosed
Mitsui & Co.
LNG, 25 yrs T/C to
1 Gas 177,000 cbm Mitsubishi, Japan Aug-2018 Japanese (Mitsui OSK) undisclosed
Mitsui & Co.
2 MPP 12,000 dwt Zaliv Shipyard, UK 2017 Russian (Russian Navy) undisclosed
Indicative Demolition Prices ($/ldt) The demolition market remains under pressure, with last week being another
Week Week stressful one for demo market players who have been watching prices falling
Markets ±% 2014 2013 2012 further, while as long as cheap Chinese scrap steel keeps entering the Indian
5 4
subcontinent market without any restrictions, hopes for an upward correc-
Bangladesh 420 425 -1.2% 469 422 440 tion remain futile. Nonetheless and despite the negative sentiment that still
India 420 425 -1.2% 478 426 445
Wet
$/l dt
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
Demolition Sales
Name Size Ldt Built Yard Type $/ldt Breakers Comments
HYUNDAI HEAVY
CAPE OSPREY 161,448 19,601 1995 BULKER $ 420/Ldt undisclosed
INDS - U, S. Korea
KOYO MIHARA,
INDIA COAL MARU 90,844 14,525 1995 BULKER $ 396/Ldt Indian
Japan
MITSUBISHI
TATIO 37,715 7,258 1985 BULKER $ 390/Ldt Indian green recycling
NAGASAKI, Japan
ALEXANDRIA SHYD.,
PERUN 12,402 5,586 1983 GC $ 430/Ldt Bangladeshi
Egypt
MITSUBISHI
HOANG SON SUN 22,835 5,302 1984 SHIMONOSEKI, BULKER $ 407/Ldt Bangladeshi
Japan
DORBYL MARINE
AQUA STAR 10,450 2,959 1992 DURBAN, South GC $ 406/Ldt undisclosed India/Pakistan.
Africa
CHOYANG PRIDE 6,016 2,040 1980 ASAKAWA, Japan TANKER $ 385/Ldt Bangladeshi
MDO
$/₤ 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.52 1.51 0.5%
Currencies
¥/$ 117.56 118.25 117.59 117.78 118.54 -0.1% Houston 582.0 572.5 1.7%
$ / NoK 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.5% Singapore 476.0 479.5 -0.7%
Yuan / $ 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.24 6.25 0.3% Rotterdam 244.0 243.0 0.4%
380cst
Won / $ 1,100.45 1,100.45 1,086.75 1,078.50 1,080.45 2.1% Houston 267.5 265.5 0.8%
$ INDEX 85.93 85.87 85.49 85.08 85.66 0.6% Singapore 282.5 282.5 0.0%
EUROSEAS LTD. NASDAQ USD 0.73 0.73 0.0% This will add $75m to the tanker owner’s share capi-
tal against the issue of 9,459,281 shares.
FREESEAS INC NASDAQ USD 0.08 0.08 0.0%
GLOBUS MARITIME LIMITED NASDAQ USD 2.03 2.30 -11.7% Peter Livanos, Marc Saverys and his sister Virginie,
plus Golden Tree and York Capital were the holders
GOLDENPORT HOLDINGS INC LONDON GBX 197.00 210.54 -6.4% of the convertible stock.
HELLENIC CARRIERS LIMITED LONDON GBX 23.00 26.00 -11.5% Analysts at Petercam explain the developments were
NAVIOS MARITIME ACQUISITIONS NYSE USD 3.33 3.81 -12.6% expected after the company’s New York float.
NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS NYSE USD 3.63 3.96 -8.3% However, they suggest the addition 9.5 million shares
NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS LP NYSE USD 11.69 12.39 -5.6% returning to market may weigh on the price short
term.
PARAGON SHIPPING INC. NYSE USD 1.75 1.92 -8.9%
SAFE BULKERS INC NYSE USD 3.59 3.62 -0.8% “In addition to that, bear in mind that trends in the
industry are somewhat turning, with rates taking a
SEANERGY MARITIME HOLDINGS CORP NASDAQ USD 0.75 0.77 -2.6% pause in anticipation of Chinese NY (as expected),”
STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP NASDAQ USD 4.01 4.15 -3.4% the analysts said.
STEALTHGAS INC NASDAQ USD 5.28 5.73 -7.9%
“Post Chinese NY, we enter a period of weaker sea-
TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION NYSE USD 6.90 7.77 -11.2%
sonality (Q2 &Q3), which results in lower day rates.
TOP SHIPS INC NASDAQ USD 1.04 1.09 -4.6% Strangely, rates and share price performance are still
highly correlated, despite the predictable seasonal
pattern.”.” (Andy Pierce, Trade Winds)
The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbr okers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without mak-
ing guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way
whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-
producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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