The shape of

things to come:
higher education global
trends and emerging
opportunities to 2020

www.britishcouncil.org/higher-education
Foreword
Dr Jo Beall
Director Education and Society
British Council

markets for international students In order to maintain a high standard of

and the fastest growing education teaching and research, catering for the
systems, as well as predicting which needs of domestic and international
countries’ systems will be most open for student audiences on the one hand and
international collaboration in teaching resolving global research challenges
The shape of things and research. on the other, significant and continuing
investment in education is required.
to come details the This study draws on well established
relationships between gross domestic
In a growing number of countries,
uncertainty and austerity are becoming
impact of demographic product (GDP) growth and tertiary
education enrolments. This relationship
the operating environment for education
establishments. The shape of things to
and economic drivers is particularly strong for emerging
economies with GDP per capita less
come highlights the scope for more
on the changing higher than US$10,000 where a small increase
effective application of research
excellence into commercial activities
in the GDP contributes to a significant
education landscape rise in the enrolment rate. This research
which are an under used resource
for generating inward investment
found strong correlation in certain
in the next decade. countries between student and trade
and research income from local and
global companies. This study outlines
flows. In some countries, such as Canada,
practices of engagement between
Japan, China, South Korea and India,
the higher education system and
the correlation is above 70 per cent.
industry in different countries and
Another factor which is increasingly draws international comparisons.
determining countries’ international
Internationalisation of education is at the
relevance is the impact of their research
heart of what the British Council does.
base. This report supports the strong
Education is increasingly seen by The British Council continues to engage
body of empirical evidence that
governments as a major contributor actively in policy debates in the UK and
internationally produced research is of
to national wealth and economic abroad, and is committed to supporting
highest quality (research citation has
development. In addition, the the UK sector in its internationalisation
been used as a proxy for quality) - not
increasingly competitive external work: attracting the brightest students
least because it provides solutions
environment has called for continuous and scholars to the UK to study and carry
to global challenges and benefits
improvement of countries’ quality out research; seizing opportunities to
more than one nation. This study
assurance standards and international deliver a UK education overseas; and
found that 80 per cent of countries’
criterion of their education systems. providing support on the ground for
research impact is determined by their
In order to maintain global relevance, teaching and research partnerships.
research collaboration rate. In addition,
internationalisation of both teaching
Nobel prizes are increasingly won by
and research have become critical
researchers working in a country other
objectives for most tertiary institutions.
than their country of birth. Over 60 per
The shape of things to come: higher cent of the winners in 2010 and 2011 had
education global trends and emerging studied or carried out research abroad.1
opportunities to 2020 provides a rigorous
Particular importance is paid to
analysis of prevailing trends that are
the role of emerging economies.
shaping higher education globally.
Parallel to their growing importance
It also looks into the next decade to
to world trade, they are becoming
determine how these will unfold.
increasingly popular study destinations
The shape of things to come details the and have seen significant growth in
impact of demographic and economic research production (and increased
drivers on the changing higher education rate of international collaboration)
landscape in the next decade. It aims to and internationally filed patents.
identify the most significant emerging

British Council Analysis (2012) based on Nobel Prizes for Physics, Chemistry, Medicine and Economics. Analysis of data from ‘Facts and Lists’.
1

Nobelprize.org. www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/lists/ – accessed on 19 Apr 2012. Detailed findings include: 44 per cent (8/18) of the Nobel Prize
winners in 2010 and 2011 won the prize for work in a country other than their country of birth (from 2008 to 2011, the proportion was 33 per cent;
1997 to 2011, the proportion was 29 per cent; approximately 29 per cent in the 1960s and approximately 15 per cent in the 1920s).

Going Global 2012 / 1

Acknowledgements

The British Council carried out this

study with Oxford Economics. While
there were large teams involved in the
production of this research, there are
a few people who made an invaluable
contribution, in particular Graeme
Harrison, Mike Phillips and Melissa
Woods from Oxford Economics, and
Janet Ilieva, Michael Peak and Kevin
van Cauter from the British Council.

Special thank you goes to:

Chiao-Ling Chien (UNESCO Institute
for Statistics), Richard Yelland (OECD),
Elspeth Jones (Emerita Professor
of the Internationalisation of Higher
Education), Christine Bateman (Liverpool
University), Paul Greatrix and Enzo Raimo
(Nottingham University) for their feedback
on various drafts of this study.

2 / Going Global 2012

Contents

Going Global 2012 Foreword

Executive summary 4

1. Introduction 10

2. Global higher education sector today 13

3. Drivers of higher education demand 31

4. The global higher education sector to 2020 37

5. Summary of future higher education 49

opportunities for global engagement

Annexes 59

Going Global 2012 / 3

Executive summary

Global higher education enrolments. Other emerging economies with and Malaysia have much larger inbound
sector today significant numbers of tertiary enrolments student flows than reported by UNESCO
include: Brazil (6.2 million), Indonesia (4.9 data, mainly because they include growing
Internationalisation of teaching and
million), Iran (3.4 million), South Korea proportions of non-degree students and
research are critical objectives for most
(3.3 million) and Turkey (3.0 million). exchanges. In addition, transnational
tertiary institutions for many reasons.
education (TNE) programmes have seen
These include raising quality standards A key feature of the global tertiary
increasing popularity globally with both
and global relevance, attracting the best education sector has been the growth
local and international students; however,
students and staff, generating revenue, in internationally mobile students. Their
data on TNE student numbers remain
pushing the frontiers of knowledge through number has risen from 800,000 in the
incomplete. Data definitions used to capture
research and promoting internal diversity. mid-1970s to over 3.5 million in 2009.
domestic and international students still
However, the global average outbound
The fast-paced growth in global tertiary lag behind the emerging varieties of TNE
mobility ratio (mobile tertiary students
enrolments and mobile students has provision. The importance of this cannot
divided by total tertiary enrolments)
followed closely world trade growth be overstated. Recognition of the current
has remained remarkably stable from
and far outpaced world GDP growth and growing future role of some Asian (and
the early 1990s onwards at just over
over the past 20 years. Increasingly, this also Gulf state) countries as education hubs
two per cent per annum, reflecting
expansion is being seen by governments with increasing inbound tertiary student
a stable ‘propensity’ to study abroad
as means to deliver on national priorities flows, thereby competing more directly with
amongst the tertiary age cohort.
and contribute to economic growth. traditional destination countries, is critical
The major origin countries for internationally for understanding how the global higher
This research looks at four key trends in
mobile tertiary students include China, education landscape will look in 2020.
international higher education:
India, South Korea, Germany, Turkey and
The major countries where inbound mobile
i international student mobility flows in the France. However, while China and India
students exceed outbound mobile students
next decade and the demographic and together account for 29 per cent of global
are the US, UK, Australia, France, Germany,
economic factors impacting on them; tertiary enrolments they contribute only
Japan, Russia, South Africa and Canada. The
ii the emergence of new models of global 21 per cent of the international students,
major countries where outbound mobile
higher education partnerships – this mainly because they have lower outbound
students exceed inbound mobile students
includes teaching partnerships and mobility ratios than the global average.
are China, India, South Korea, Kazakhstan,
provision of degrees off-shore; Outbound mobility ratios vary significantly Turkey, Morocco and Vietnam. Malaysia is
iii patterns in research output and its across countries, ranging from 50 per cent an interesting example where inbound and
growing internationalisation; and for Botswana and 30 per cent for Trinidad outbound flows were similarly large in 2009
iv commercial research activities that and Tobago and Mauritius, to less than one offsetting one another, whereas previously it
higher education institutions in different per cent for the UK, US, Australia, Russia, had a large net outflow of tertiary students.
countries engage in as a response to Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt and Brazil. Malaysia was the UK’s number one country
decreased investment in higher Countries such as Hong Kong (China), for international students until the East
education across a growing number Singapore, Ireland, Nepal, UAE and South Asia currency crisis in the late 1990s.
of countries. Korea have above global average outbound
While bilateral student flows to China
mobility ratios, as do many European
are not yet likely to rival the above
To arrive at an accurate forecast on countries due to high mobility within Europe.
in volume terms, they could have
international student flows, particular According to UIS data, the distribution of profound implications in future for
attention has been paid to global tertiary destination countries for mobile tertiary tertiary institutions across the globe.
enrolments and their projected growth to students is concentrated in the US,
2020. In addition, countries’ outward and UK, Australia, France, Germany, Russia, Drivers of higher education
inward student mobility ratios have been Japan and Canada. Together these demand to 2020
studied to establish how many students from countries account for 60 per cent of total
each sending country will study abroad and international students. Other countries A combination of demographic and
determine the respective study destinations. play an important and increasingly large economic drivers, bilateral trade patterns,
destination role at regional level: South and shifts in inbound and outbound
Global tertiary enrolments reached 170 student flows linked to growing global
million in 2009 (UNESCO Institute for Africa (Sub-Saharan Africa); Singapore,
Hong Kong and Malaysia (South East competition and rapid expansion of
Statistics, referred to hereafter as UIS). tertiary education capacity, will re-shape
Four countries alone – China, India, US Asia); and South Korea (North East Asia).
the global higher education landscape by
and Russia – have a combined share According to other sources, notably 2020. Demographically, just four countries
of 45 per cent of total global tertiary Project ATLAS2, countries such as China

The goal of Project Atlas is to collect and report accurate, timely and comprehensive data on global student mobility. More details are available at:
2

www.iie.org/Research-and-Publications/Project-Atlas/About

4 / Going Global 2012

 Executive summary

– India, China, US and Indonesia – will longer as favourable as a result of declining States. However, it has been possible to
account for over half of the world’s 18–22 birth rates over the last 20 to 30 years. produce inbound student flows forecasts
population by 2020. A further quarter for the major study destinations and a
Between 2002 and 2009, China and
will come from Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, limited number of emerging economies.
India dominated global growth in tertiary
Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Philippines, Mexico, By 2020 using the consistent UIS data,
enrolments, accounting for 26 million of
Egypt and Vietnam. international students will continue to
the overall increase of 55 million. Their
gravitate towards the US, UK, Australia,
The importance of economic growth combined forecast growth for the period
Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
as a driver of future tertiary education 2011–20 declines to 12 million, with
Given the data limitations mentioned
demand is clearly illustrated by the strong growth in tertiary enrolments in China
earlier, this forecast underestimates
relationship between GDP per capita at falling from 17 million (2002–09) to five
the shifting balance in student mobility
purchasing power parity (PPP) and gross million (2011–20). India’s tertiary enrolment
towards wider Asia (e.g. China, Malaysia,
tertiary enrolment ratios. Not only is growth (in absolute terms) is forecast to
Singapore, India, and South Korea).
the correlation positive and statistically outpace China’s growth between now and
significant, but more importantly, at low 2020. Following China and India, other In terms of growth in total inbound
PPP GDP per capita levels, gross tertiary emerging economies with significant tertiary student numbers between 2011
enrolment ratios tend to increase quicker forecast growth in tertiary enrolments and 2020, Australia is forecast to lead
for relatively small increases in GDP per over the next decade will include Brazil with growth of over 50,000 international
capita. Amongst this study’s shortlist of (+2.6 million), Indonesia (+2.3 million), students from the shortlisted countries,
50+ countries (including both developed Nigeria (+1.4 million), Philippines (+0.7 followed by the UK, US and Canada.
and emerging economies, chosen for million), Bangladesh (+0.7 million), Turkey
However, given increased investments
their importance to the tertiary sector (+0.7 million) and Ethiopia (+0.6 million).
in higher education and excess capacity
and world economy), approximately half
By 2020, four countries – China, India, in countries with less favourable
currently have PPP GDP per capita levels
US and Brazil (replacing Russia) – are demographics, it is possible in the long
below US$10,000. Thus, provided these
forecast to account for more than half run that countries like China, Singapore,
economies grow strongly over the next
of the world’s tertiary enrolments. In Malaysia and some Gulf States will become
decade, as many are forecast to, there
addition, Indonesia, Turkey and Nigeria will the fastest growing study destinations. It
is significant scope for their tertiary
become increasingly important players is difficult to estimate the extent to which
enrolment ratios to increase.
in the global tertiary education sector, these countries will displace international
Despite strong economic growth, many while Russia, Iran and South Korea’s students to traditional destinations such
of the shortlisted economies are still global market shares are forecast to fall. as the US, UK, Australia and Canada.
forecast to have PPP GDP per capita Under this scenario, the forecasts in this
Forecasts of outbound mobile students are
below US$10,000 in 2020 – including report – using UIS data – are potentially
a function of a country’s tertiary enrolments
Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, India, over-optimistic on inbound student
forecasts and outbound mobility ratios.
Morocco, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. This flows to traditional markets and do not
In absolute terms, China (585,000), India
will constrain how soon these countries fully capture the possible change in net
(296,000) and South Korea (134,000) are
close the gap in tertiary enrolment rates mobility balances. The forecast growth in
still forecast to be the largest countries of
on advanced economies. It also means international students to the major study
origin for international students in 2020.
the decade beyond 2020 should see destination countries over the next decade
continued rises in enrolment ratios and Whereas China was the source of a third (around 130,000) is less than China’s
strong growth in tertiary education demand, of global growth in outbound mobile ambitious international student recruitment
subject to demographic changes. students between 2002 and 2009, its growth target of approximately 250,000.
contribution to future growth is forecast This does not include the international
The global higher education sector to be much more limited. This is partly student targets of other countries.
to 2020: a changing landscape to do with its slower tertiary enrolment
In terms of changes to key bilateral
growth and partly due to an assumed
Total global tertiary enrolments are tertiary student flows, a number of
slight fall in its outbound mobility ratio.
forecast to grow by 21 million between developments stand out. Firstly, outbound
Instead, India is forecast to be one of the
2011 and 2020, or 1.4 per cent per year on mobile student flows from China to the
main sources of future growth in outbound
average. This compares with global tertiary US, Japan and the UK; Japan to the US;
tertiary students (+71,000 between 2011
enrolment growth of five per cent per year and Greece to the UK, are forecast to fall
and 2020), followed by Nigeria, Malaysia,
in the previous two decades (and almost six most sharply in absolute terms. Markets
Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
per cent between 2002 and 2009), which with rising tuition fees are also likely to
indicates a significant slowing down in Forecasting international students see declines in inbound student flows.
growth rates of tertiary enrolments to 2020. inbound flows across all countries
In contrast, outbound flows from India to
This in some ways should be expected covered in this report is limited by data on
Australia, the UK and US; China to Australia;
with the sector maturing or slowing in student exchanges and students on TNE
and Nigeria to the UK, are forecast to be
some markets, and demographic trends no programmes, especially in Asia and the Gulf

Going Global 2012 / 5

the largest absolute rises in bilateral flows. education system with regard to foreign on internationally-filed patent applications
There may of course be other significant education limit these at present. The (e.g. US, China, Japan and South Korea);
flows not recorded in the data, and penetration of existing markets also needs those with the highest rates of commercial
therefore not possible to forecast, such as to be considered – a country like Malaysia, joint-working (e.g. India, Australia and Brazil);
inflows to China, Singapore and Gulf States. for example, is a more mature TNE market and those involving smaller, research-
than one such as Indonesia, and its needs intensive countries which excel in niche
Bilateral student flows within Europe may
and opportunities will be different. technological growth markets (such as
also shift in response to widening tuition fee
Switzerland, the Nordic countries and
differentials, especially given the current The volume of global research output
Israel), and have research citation impact
economic climate. While overall this is is dominated by a few large countries,
significantly above the world average.
unlikely to affect aggregate flows as it may including the US, Germany, Japan,
simply shift bilateral patterns rather than China and the UK. Rates of international In conclusion, just as the last decade
increase overall outbound mobility ratios, research collaboration are much lower witnessed a changed landscape in the
there is likely to be a shift from high to low in the US and China than in smaller, more higher education sector – one which has
tuition fee countries. That said, the trend economically interdependent countries significantly benefited advanced and
of rising postgraduate provision taught in such as Switzerland and the Netherlands. emerging economies alike – so too does
English may provide additional stimulus for But volume dictates that the majority of the next decade herald significant change.
greater mobility to non-English speaking future research collaboration opportunities This change will both intensify competition
European countries, for example from to 2020 will continue to come from the and equally provide opportunities for
countries such as India, Pakistan and Nigeria major players such as the US and China. strengthened collaborations globally.
to countries such as the Netherlands, Just as the world economy is shifting
Researchers with international experience
Scandinavian and Baltic countries, Germany east and south, the evidence suggests,
create the most highly cited research
and France. with a lag relative to the shift in economic
articles.3 The countries generating the
power, the global tertiary education
highest average citation impact per
New global higher education sector is now starting to move east,
document include Switzerland, the
partnerships but at this stage less so south.
Netherlands, the Nordic countries, the UK
Opportunities for global engagement and US. At the institutional level, demand For advanced economies, while still
in higher education are not limited to for international collaboration strongly maintaining a large, if potentially
internationally mobile students. TNE and follows quality, and Harvard produces the shrinking, international mobile student
collaborative research partnerships are highest number of collaborative research population in the long run, and whilst
also expected to continue their growth to articles, followed by Toronto and Oxford. continuing to collaborate together
2020. To identify future opportunities for The UK has at least eight universities on research, a proportion of activity
TNE, whether through joint or independent with an average research citation impact in TNE and research, both academic
initiatives, a number of key drivers need more than 80 per cent above the global and business, will need to follow east
to be considered. These include the average and will continue to be a desirable if opportunities are to be exploited.
total number (and growth rate) of tertiary global collaboration partner. There is a
A summary of future higher education
enrolments, student mobility rates and a strong correlation between international
opportunities for global engagement is in
variety of practical barriers to TNE, from research collaboration rates and citations
the table and chart on the following page.
language issues to the legal and political per document. While not proof of causality,
framework in the potential host country. the association is positive (i.e. the direction
expected) and significant (for 2010, 80
It is likely that TNE programmes will per cent of the variation in citations per
continue to be developed in established document across countries is ‘explained’ by
host country markets such as Malaysia international research collaboration rates).
and Singapore (especially as they also
have ambitious international student There is scope for more effective
targets), while China and India will inevitably application of research excellence into
generate further interest, subject to commercial activities, and this could
continuing legislative uncertainties and strengthen future economic growth
artificial barriers to market entry. potential. Universities remain an under-used
resource for generating inward investment
There are significant TNE opportunities and research income from global
in countries such as Pakistan, Nigeria, companies, though it varies from country to
Indonesia and Vietnam, but a combination country. Particularly beneficial are expected
of security issues, legislative barriers and to be: collaborations with countries leading
the relative lack of openness of the local

Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (2011), International Comparative Performance of the UK Research Base
3

6 / Going Global 2012

 Executive summary

Summary of future higher education opportunities for global engagement (2020)

International tertiary
Future opportunities4
education opportunity

• Largest outbound mobile student flows by origin (2020): China (585k), India (296k), South Korea
(134k), Germany (100k), Turkey (84k), Malaysia (82k), Nigeria (67k)
• Fastest growing (absolute) outbound mobile student flows (next decade): India (71k), Nigeria
(30k), Malaysia (22k), Nepal (17k), Pakistan (17k), Saudi Arabia (16k), Turkey (13k)
• Largest inbound mobile student flows by destination (2020): US (582k), UK (331k), Australia
(277k), Canada (176k), Germany (155k) – China and Malaysia are also likely to feature here
• Fastest growing (absolute) inbound mobile student flows (next decade): Australia (51k), UK (28k),
US (27k), Canada (23k) – again China will surely feature here
International student • Major bilateral mobile student flows (2020): India to US (118k), China to US (101k), China to
mobility Australia (93k), South Korea to US (81k), China to Japan (64k), India to UK (59k) – flows to China,
and possibly India also
• Fastest growing (absolute) bilateral mobile student flows (next decade): India to UK (20k), India
to US (19k), China to Australia (17k), Nigeria to UK (14k), India to Australia (11k) – flows to China, and
possibly India also
• Fastest declining (absolute) bilateral mobile student flows (next decade): China to Japan (-14k),
Japan to US (-8k), China to US (-8k), China to UK (-7k), Kazakhstan to Russia (-5k), Greece to UK (-4k) – the
impact of China’s aggressive pursuit of international students could well lead to some well-established
bilateral flows declining

• Largest tertiary enrolment levels (2020): China (37.4m), India (27.8m), US (20.0m), Brazil (9.2m),
Indonesia (7.7m), Russia (6.3m), Japan (3.8m), Turkey (3.8m), Iran (3.8m), Nigeria (3.6m)
• Fastest growing (absolute) tertiary enrolment growth (next decade): India (7.1m), China (5.1m),
Size and growth of Brazil (2.6m), Indonesia (2.3m), Nigeria (1.4m), Philippines (0.7m), Bangladesh (0.7m), Turkey (0.7m), Ethiopia
domestic tertiary (0.6m) – growth in certain markets could be larger still if ambitious international student recruitment
education systems targets are met
• Largest falls in outbound mobile students (next decade): Japan (-10k), Greece (-10k), Poland (-8k),
Singapore (-6k), Russia (-6k), Germany (-2k) – China is one to watch here given its demographic outlook
and ambitious domestic tertiary sector expansion plans

• Dual and joint degrees: China, US, France, India, Germany

• Franchising and validation: Asia, Latin America, possibly Africa (Nigeria)
TNE
• Branch campuses: Far East, possibly Middle East
• Online: Gulf countries, Asia, possibly Scandinavia

• Largest growth in research output: Volume growth to be driven by collaborations involving US and
Chinese institutions
• Highest collaboration rates: Research collaboration rates are higher in many smaller countries, such
as Switzerland and Belgium (50–70%); they are lower in China (around 15%). Overall opportunity for
collaboration depends on both the volume of research and propensity to collaborate
Academic • Highest average citation impacts: Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark and US – collaborating with
international research these countries in theory should help to maintain and increase research average citation impacts
collaboration
• Three core opportunity groups: Specifically for the UK, future growth in collaborations likely to be
with (i) the US and other established high volume research leaders (Germany, France, Italy, Canada,
Australia); (ii) high average citation impact leaders (also Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark) and niche
opportunities in smaller, technology-intensive countries such as the Nordic countries, Switzerland and
Israel; and (iii) a chance to tap into rapid research output growth in key emerging markets, most notably
China but also Malaysia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and Qatar

• Large companies: Growth in collaboration opportunities with multinationals; large US, European,
Chinese, Indian and Latin American companies; niche opportunities in research and technology-intensive
countries e.g. Israel, Switzerland, learn from approach in Nordic countries, Netherlands. Opportunities in
countries with high tertiary sector-large firm innovation collaboration rates (e.g. Finland, Sweden) and
unexploited opportunities in countries with low tertiary sector-large firm innovation collaboration rates
(e.g. Brazil, UK, Spain, Italy)
Business international • Smaller companies: Further growth opportunities in small and medium enterprises (SME) collaboration
research rates for research and development (R and D), focused on niche, high-value technology areas and/or
collaboration links to multinational supply chains. Opportunities in countries with high tertiary sector-SME innovation
collaboration rates (e.g. Finland, Belgium, UK) and unexploited opportunities in countries with low tertiary
sector-SME innovation collaboration rates (e.g. Brazil, Italy)
• Leading countries in internationally-filed patent application: Japan, US, South Korea and in
volume terms, China and India
• Innovation: Continuing promotion of open innovation models, with fluid collaboration between business
and the higher education sector

All forecast values have been calculated from analysis of data on the 50+ shortlisted countries (see page 10)
4

Going Global 2012 / 7

Future higher education opportunities for global engagement –
major countries (2020)

TNE
Change in tertiary enrolments (2011–2020, 000’s)

10,000

8,000
India

6,000
China

4,000
Brazil
'Volume' critical mass
Philippines proxy (size of circle) is
Indonesia weighted average of
2,000 forecast outbound mobile
Bangladesh Nigeria students and tertiary
Turkey
Ethiopia enrolments in 2020
Germany Malaysia
0 Pakistan 40
-40 -20 20 60 80 100
Nepal
-2,000
Saudi Arabia
Russia Angola
Mexico
South Korea
-4,000

Outbound Mobility

Change in outbound mobile tertiary students (2011–2020, 000’s)

Source: Oxford Economics

International Education Opportunities – Outbound Mobile Students and TNE

8 / Going Global 2012

 Executive summary

Future higher education opportunities for global engagement –

top country listings (2020)

Domestic tertiary education International student mobility – International student mobility –

system outbound inbound
Size Growth Size Growth Size Growth
Rank 2020 Next decade 2020 Next decade 2020 Next decade
1 China India China India US Australia
2 India China India Nigeria UK UK
3 US Brazil South Korea Malaysia Australia US
4 Brazil Indonesia Germany Nepal Canada Canada
5 Indonesia Nigeria Turkey Pakistan Germany
6 Russia Philippines Malaysia Saudi Arabia France
7 Japan Bangladesh Nigeria Turkey Japan
8 Turkey Turkey Kazakhstan Iraq Russia
9 Iran Ethiopia France Zimbabwe
10 Nigeria Mexico US Angola See point a See point b

Note: Asian countries shaded in grey

a China, Malaysia and India will be amongst the top ten host countries by 2020. Due to the
data issues discussed in this report the exact position of these host countries is difficult
to forecast with certainty although China has potential to be one of the top three hosts of
international students.
b China, Malaysia, Singapore and India will be in the top ten fastest growing hosts of
internationally mobile students.

Going Global 2012 / 9

1. Introduction

Background Internationalisation of teaching and research The Development Partnerships in

are critical objectives for most tertiary Higher Education Programme (DelPHE),
The tertiary education sector has seen a
institutions. There are a number for example, which runs from 2006 to
massive expansion over the past decades.
of motivations for this, including institutional 2013, has funded around 160 projects
It generates significant and multiple direct,
profiling, raising quality standards and involving a lead institution in Africa or Asia
indirect and catalytic economic impacts
global relevance, attracting the best partnering with one or more UK universities
(e.g. human capital, research, innovation
students and staff, generating revenue, or research institutes to tackle a particular
and trade promotion) which result in well-
and promoting internal diversity. While local development problem.
established benefits pertaining to both
some universities use TNE to support wider
individuals and wider economies.
research and academic collaboration, In addition, the tertiary sector is becoming
others may also seek to mitigate against more aware of, and engaged with, its
The tertiary education sector has
the perceived threat of a decline in inbound role as a driver of national economic
characteristics similar to other industries
international students – for example as a competitiveness, with education and
in having a sizeable portion of demand that
result of recent and predicted future growth technological development – its core
is both domestic (driven by home students’
in domestic tertiary systems (both quantity business – firmly accepted as the twin
demand and needs of the respective
and quality) in key inbound student markets drivers of modern productivity.
national priorities) and international.
such as China, India, Malaysia and other
The international component is given
major economies such as Brazil and Russia.
a growing prominence by increasing Choice of shortlisted countries
international student and academic
Most notably, today’s world is increasingly The focus of this research is global. But
faculty, TNE activities, academic and
global and interdependent, and both to avoid analysing small countries with
business research collaborations, and
research and education are necessarily marginal opportunities – due to their
for some countries, makes a sizeable
following suit. Students increasingly limited critical mass – a shortlist of the
contribution to exports and GDP.
demand cross-cultural exposure on top 50+ largest tertiary education
their courses, to prepare them for countries was identified (see annex A).
In the UK, for example, wider education
international careers; researchers naturally
exports in 2008–09 were estimated to be
look overseas to develop solutions The shortlisting exercise was based on the
£14.1 billion5 (and are forecast to rise to
to global problems, and there is clear following criteria:
almost £27 billion by 2025). The 2008–09
evidence that internationally co-authored
figures are equivalent to 1.0 per cent of GDP
articles are more frequently cited. • current number of domestic
and 8.4 per cent of total service exports.
Education’s share of total service exports tertiary enrolments
To justify claims that an institution provides • current number of outbound and
compares to 28 per cent (banking or 32 per
a true international education, and to inbound mobile tertiary students
cent including financial service exports),
attract top students from around the world,
17 per cent (professional, scientific and • current outbound and inbound
it is necessary to clearly demonstrate a
technical activities)6, 14 per cent (travel and mobility ratios
strong physical global footprint; a sizeable
tourism) and 12 per cent (ICT).7 • current and projected size and growth
body of international students (16 per
cent of all students in the UK are from of 18–22 age group population
Although there are some complexities
abroad) and lecturers (25 per cent of • current and projected size of respective
with making direct comparisons, based on
UK’s lecturers are from outside the UK)8; a economies (in US$ GDP terms)
these figures education is the fifth largest
strongly internationalised course content; • forecast rate of economic growth
service export sector in the UK economy.
and a suitable number of opportunities
In other economies such as Australia and • current and projected number and
for exchange and overseas study.
New Zealand, education is likely to rank even growth in households with incomes
higher up the league table of service export above US$30,000.
Universities also contribute to global
sectors where the sectors could be said to
development and poverty reduction,
be given greater economic strategic priority. The 50+ countries included are
through a combination of collaborative
research (particularly in areas where they evident from the analysis presented
The objective of this research is to look throughout the report, and represent
are internationally strong, such as medical
at the future shape of the global higher a strong mix of diverse and
sciences or business and leadership), direct
education sector and its growing geographically distributed nations.
teaching and capacity-building initiatives with
internationalisation – both of teaching
partner institutions in the developing world.
(onshore and offshore) and research.

5
Estimate by London Economics for the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
6
This may include some activities also included in education’s service exports
7
Source: WTTC, Oxford Economics
8
HESA 2012 Staff record

10 / Going Global 2012

 1. Introduction

As all forecast values have been calculated Chapter 5 draws future higher education
from analysis of data on these 50+ opportunities for global engagement.
shortlisted countries (rather than an
exhaustive global list of countries) this Given the wealth of data and analysis used
should be borne in mind when considering to draw the trends expected to shape
the numerical values of forecasts quoted the world’s higher education to 2020,
in this report. These forecasts in many most of the data tables and supporting
instances could be underestimates. research evidence and analysis, as well as
supplementary information are provided in
Report structure Annexes A–E:

This report has five chapters. It starts with • Annex A: International student mobility
an introduction to the study objectives ratio forecasts
and states the increasing importance
of higher education and its growing • Annex B: Additional evidence on TNE
internationalisation. • Annex C: Future higher education
opportunities for global engagement –
Chapter 2 analyses key trends that world region analysis
have shaped the higher education
landscape over the past few decades. • Annex D: International higher
This includes: tertiary education education definitions.
enrolments; international student mobility • Annex E: Supplementary charts
flows, TNE developments, international and graphs.
research collaborations and international
research involving business activities.
Chapter 3 outlines the drivers of higher
education demand. It looks at countries’
demographic projections to 2020 and the
changes in the 18–22 population group.
It uses well established relationships
between nations’ wealth and tertiary
enrolments. This relationship is positive
and particularly strong in emerging
economies with household income
below US$10,000. This chapter uses
GDP per capita projection to establish
the size of countries’ tertiary education
systems in 2020 and determine which
countries will close the gap on tertiary
enrolment rates in advanced economies.
Chapter 4 draws the higher education
landscape in 2020. Having established that
international student mobility is a function
of tertiary enrolment projections and
countries’ outward mobility ratio, growth
in international students globally will be
much lower than in previous decades. It will
mirror the slow down in tertiary enrolments
(down to one per cent per annum from
five per cent per annum previously).
However, TNE is expected to see increased
variety of models of delivery and growing
opportunities in the Middle East and
Asia. Academic international research
collaborations among countries are set to
grow and so are the research collaborations
with multinationals and SMEs.

Going Global 2012 / 11

12 / Going Global 2012
 Global higher education sector today

2. Global higher education

sector today

Global higher education sector today 14

Tertiary enrolments 15
International student mobility 16
Outbound mobility 17
Inbound mobility 18
Net balance of inbound and outbound mobility 19
Bilateral tertiary mobile flows 20
Transnational education (TNE) 21
Academic research collaboration 22
Business research collaboration 26
Joint technological development 27
Top UK universities for collaborative research 28
Postgraduate researchers in UK 29

Going Global 2012 / 13

2. Global higher education
sector today

Box 2.1: Global higher education sector today – key facts

Tertiary enrolments – 170 million globally in 2009, with just four countries (China, India,
US and Russia) accounting for 45 per cent of the total; growth has averaged five per cent
per annum (the world’s 18–22 age population over the same period grew by one per cent
per annum, implying a significant rise in the global gross tertiary enrolment ratio).
International student mobility – 3.5 million mobile students in 2009, up from 800,000
in the mid-1970s; global tertiary mobility rate stable at two per cent since early 1990s;
major countries where inbound mobile students exceed outbound mobile students are
the US, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, South Africa and Canada; major
countries where outbound mobile students exceed inbound mobile students are China,
India, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Morocco and Vietnam.
TNE – globally some 200 branch campuses now exist around the world, serving around
120,000 students, with 37 more set to open by 2013; UAE remains the most popular
host country (with 37 campuses), and the US by far the most popular source (accounting
for 78 campuses worldwide); more than 500,000 students in 2010–11 studying entirely
overseas for a degree delivered in full or in part by a UK institution.
Academic international research collaboration – largest producers of collaborative
research articles in 2010 are the US (143,000 in 2010), UK (62,000), Germany (58,000)
and China (47,000); international collaboration rate is highest in Switzerland (62 per cent).
Business international research collaboration – rates of joint-working on research
and development (R and D) between large companies and universities are highest in
Finland, at 70 per cent (compared to 25 per cent in the UK)

Before looking at future opportunities,

it is important to first establish important
facts and patterns about the global tertiary
education sector today – in terms of
domestic tertiary enrolments, international
student flows, TNE and academic and
business research collaboration.
This chapter therefore acts as the baseline
for the opportunities analysis to 2020.

14 / Going Global 2012

 2. Global higher education sector today

Tertiary enrolments
Based on the latest data available from Iraq
UIS, total global tertiary enrolments were Saudi Arabia
approximately 170 million in 2009.9 The 50+
Egypt
shortlisted countries focused on for this
study make up over 150 million or 90 per Romania
cent of this total. Just four countries – China, Mexico
India, US and Russia – have a combined Colombia
share of 45 per cent of total global tertiary Ukraine
enrolments. Other emerging economies with
Pakistan
significant numbers of tertiary enrolments
include: Brazil (6.2 million), Indonesia (4.9 Bangladesh
million), Iran (3.4 million), South Korea Nigeria
(3.3 million) and Turkey (3.0 million). Vietnam
Global tertiary enrolments were Venezuela
approximately 65 million in 1990, so have Turkey
increased by 160 per cent in 20 years or Russia
on average by five per cent per annum. Indonesia
The world’s 18–22 age population over
Iran
the same period grew by one per cent per
annum, implying a significant rise in the Brazil
global gross tertiary enrolment ratio. US
Between 2002 and 2009, China and India
India dominated global growth in tertiary China
enrolments, accounting for 26 million
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
(44 per cent) of the overall increase of 55 000’s
million. In percentage terms, a number of
other countries of significant critical mass
registered exceptionally strong growth rates Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics
in tertiary enrolments over the same period:
Fig 2.1: Tertiary enrolment growth (2002–2009, 000’s)
Brazil (+68 per cent), Turkey (+74 per cent),
Indonesia (+53 per cent), Nigeria (+68 per
cent), Pakistan (+179 per cent), Malaysia
(+41 per cent), Vietnam (+127 per cent),
Saudi Arabia (+70 per cent) and Bangladesh
(+84 per cent).
Countries with negligible or even slightly
negative growth in tertiary enrolments
are also noteworthy: South Korea,
Japan and Spain. This tends to reflect
underlying demographic trends and
gross tertiary enrolment rates stabilising
at what might be considered maximum
threshold levels. Although this does
not automatically mean that tertiary
sectors in these countries are ‘static’ as
there may be rising demand for certain
underlying elements of higher education.

This includes estimates for countries where data is missing in this year.
9

Going Global 2012 / 15

International student mobility
Another key feature of the global tertiary 1990=100
education sector has been the growth
in international students. The number of 300
international students in tertiary education
has risen from 800,000 in the mid-1970s to
over 3.5 million in 2009.
250
However, the outbound mobility ratio Mobile tertiary students
(mobile tertiary students divided by GDP
total tertiary enrolments) has remained Trade
remarkably stable from the early 1990s 200 Tertiary enrolments
onwards at just over two per cent, reflecting
a stable ‘propensity’ to study abroad. The
50+ shortlisted countries focused on for
this study make up over 70 per cent of the 150
global international students at tertiary level.
To set the growth of mobile tertiary
students in context, its growth has been
tracked against the growth in world gross 100
domestic product (GDP) and world trade.
Initially during the 1980s, growth in mobile
students lagged behind both world GDP
and world trade (and indeed global tertiary 50
enrolments also). But from the early 1990s,
mobile tertiary student growth (and tertiary
enrolments overall) accelerated to outpace
world GDP growth, and grow at a similar 0
pace to world trade (see Fig 2.2). 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
It is difficult to determine the causality Year
between mobile tertiary students and trade
– and is beyond the scope of this research
– but clearly there is a close association Source: UNESCO, OECD, Oxford Economics
between the two, both in aggregate and
Fig 2.2: Global tertiary enrolments and mobile students and global GDP and trade (1980–2009)
at a bilateral country-to-country level
(see Table 2.1 on page 20).

16 / Going Global 2012

 2. Global higher education sector today

Outbound mobility
Venezuela
The major origin markets for outbound Indonesia
South Africa
mobile tertiary students include China, Australia
UK
India, South Korea, Germany, Turkey and Iran
Mexico
France, with the distribution of outbound Thailand
India
mobile students more balanced than Japan
Bangladesh
for tertiary enrolments. China and India Ukraine
Spain
contribute 29 per cent of total tertiary Colombia
enrolments but only 21 per cent of Iraq
Ethiopia
total outbound mobile students. This Poland
Turkey
is because they have lower outbound China
Italy
mobility ratios than the global average. Nigeria
Romania
France
Outbound mobility ratios vary significantly Vietnam
Pakistan
across countries, ranging from above 25 Canada
Ghana
per cent for Mauritius, Trinidad and Tobago Jordan
Israel
and Botswana, to less than one per cent South Korea
Saudi Arabia
for the UK, US, Australia, Russia, Indonesia, Germany
Switzerland
Philippines, Egypt and Brazil. Markets such Belarus
as Hong Kong, Singapore, Ireland, Nepal, Greece
Kazakhstan
UAE and South Korea have above global Malaysia
UAE
average outbound mobility ratios, as do Kenya
Uzbekistan
many European countries due to high Nepal
Sri Lanka
mobility across borders within Europe Ireland
Morocco
and growing provision in widely spoken Singapore
Angola
English language postgraduate courses, Hong Kong
Zimbabwe
(see Fig 2.3). Mauritius
Trinidad and Tobago
Botswana
China has been the source of one-third
of global growth in outbound mobile 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
students between 2002 and 2009, followed
by India (10 per cent), however, their
Source: UNESCO, OECD, Oxford Economics
outbound mobility ratio is significantly low.
Other countries appearing in the top 20 Fig 2.3: Global tertiary outbound mobility ratio by origin market (2009)
for outbound mobile student growth (in
absolute terms) are South Korea, Vietnam,
Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Turkey,
Pakistan, Malaysia and Nepal (see Fig 2.4). Poland
France
Nepal
Malaysia
Pakistan
Zimbabwe
Turkey
Nigeria
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Russia
Vietnam
South Korea
Kazakhstan
Germany
India
China
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
000’s

Source: UNESCO, OECD, Oxford Economics

Fig 2.4: Global outbound mobile tertiary students by origin market growth (2002–09)

Going Global 2012 / 17

Inbound mobility Nepal
Uzbekistan
According to available data the distribution Philippines
Venezuela
Bangladesh
of destination markets for inbound Indonesia
Vietnam
mobile tertiary students is much less Mauritius
China
Brazil
evenly distributed than for outbound Zimbabwe
Thailand
students. The US, UK, Australia, France, Turkey
Poland
Romania
Germany, Russia, Japan and Canada lead Belarus
Ukraine
at global level, accounting for 60 per Russia
Egypt
Ghana
cent of total inbound mobile students. Kazakhstan
South Korea
Morocco
Saudi Arabia
Other countries, however, do play an Spain
Japan
important destination role at a more Italy
Greece
US
regional level: South Africa (Sub-Saharan Hong Kong
Malaysia
Africa); Malaysia and Singapore (South East South Africa
Canada
Ireland
Asia); and South Korea (North East Asia). Germany
Jordan
France
Inbound mobility ratios also vary Switzerland
UK
Singapore
significantly across countries, ranging Australia
UAE
from 39.2 per cent in the UAE and above
10 per cent in France, Switzerland, 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
UK, Singapore and Australia (and also
countries such as Qatar, Cyprus and Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics
Austria), to less than one per cent in Fig 2.5: Global tertiary inbound mobility ratio by destination market (2009)
Turkey, Poland, China, Brazil, Bangladesh,
Indonesia and Nepal (see Fig 2.5).
Drawing on UIS (as opposed to OECD) Greece
data, part of this inbound flow in 2009 France
is accounted for by China (61,000), Switzerland
India (12,000 in 2006), Brazil (16,000), Japan
Indonesia (6,000) and Singapore (40,000). Brazil
Even though some of these flows are Czech Republic
significant in scale, they are all still lower Netherlands
than current inflows to Canada (93,000). Italy
Austria
The figures for some of these countries South Korea
are likely to be higher still than captured by Spain
both OECD and UIS. Given these agencies Canada
mainly capture degree students only, other Russia
agencies’ data complement these statistics UK
by providing data on student exchanges, US
TNE and various study abroad options. For Australia
example Project ATLAS10 reports an inbound
0 20 40 60 80 100
tertiary student flow of 265,000 currently
000’s
for China compared to the UIS figure of
72,000 in 2010. This matters because some
of the non-reported or under-reported Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics
countries are investing heavily in higher
Fig 2.6: Global inbound mobile tertiary students by destination market growth (2004–09)
education and have plans to develop further
as education hubs. So their growing role
as destinations for internationally mobile having a smaller tertiary education sector. Korea and Spain are also notable for their
students should not be underestimated. Australia’s growth in inbound students expansion of inbound mobile students
between 2004 and 2009 (+54 per cent) between 2004 and 2009 (see Fig 2.6).
For growth in inbound mobile students, was more than double the rate of growth
Australia’s success is clearly evident, If additional and alternative inbound
of both the US (+15 per cent) and UK
increasing its number of inbound students data were available and used, it is not
(+21 per cent), Canada, Russia, South
by more than the US and UK. This is despite impossible, especially given investments

www.iie.org/en-GB/Services/Project-Atlas/China/International-Students-In-China
10

18 / Going Global 2012

 2. Global higher education sector today

in higher education, that countries such

as China, Singapore, Malaysia and a Gulf
US
state would account for a higher share of UK
global inbound student mobility growth. Australia
France
For example, China’s inbound flow of Germany
tertiary mobile students doubled between Canada
2006 and 2009, but this is based on the Japan
Russia
lower UIS figures. A doubling of growth Spain
in the larger Project ATLAS figure of Switzerland
265,000 inbound students would dwarf UAE
Egypt
historic growth in any other country, Singapore
including the US, UK and Australia. Jordan
Italy
Malaysia
Ireland
Net balance of inbound Ghana
and outbound mobility Mauritius
Ukraine
It is useful to present the net balance Philippines
between the inbound and outbound Thailand
Greece
student flows to and from countries. The Saudi Arabia
major countries where inbound mobile Venezuela
students exceed outbound mobile Brazil
students are the US, UK, Australia, France, Romania
Bangladesh
Germany, Canada, Japan and Russia. Poland
Nepal
The major countries where outbound Hong Kong
mobile students exceed inbound mobile Zimbabwe
students are China, India, South Korea, Mexico
Indonesia
Kazakhstan, Turkey, Morocco and Vietnam. Belarus
Uzbekistan
Malaysia is an interesting case study where Iran
inbound (41,000)11 and outbound (58,000) Vietnam
flows were similarly large in 2009. This Morocco
compares to a large net mobility outflow Turkey Inbound
Kazakhstan
in 1998 when inbound flows were only South Korea Outbound
3,000 and outbound flows were still high India
at 50,000–55,000. As such, the evolution China
of Malaysia’s global tertiary education
-700 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700
experience serves as a useful lesson
000’s
for other countries with aspirations to
follow a similar path (see Fig 2.7).
Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics

Fig 2.7: Global inbound and outbound mobile tertiary students (2009)

Project ATLAS estimates tertiary inbound student inflows to Malaysia currently are much higher at around 87,000.
11

Going Global 2012 / 19

Bilateral tertiary mobile flows
Tertiary student origin by destination country-correlation with total goods
The major bilateral flows of mobile tertiary trade (2009)
students are as follows: China to US, India
to US, China to Japan, South Korea to US, Correlation R-squared
China to Australia, China to UK, China to
Canada 0.98 96%
South Korea, China to Canada, India to
UK, Canada to US, Japan to US, Turkey to Japan 0.92 85%
Germany, and Morocco to France. The
importance of China as a major origin China 0.88 77%
market and the US as a major destination
market is very evident from these flows. South Korea 0.86 75%
There may be other significant bilateral
flows (through TNE, student exchanges India 0.85 72%
and short-term mobility) not listed
Switzerland 0.83 69%
here – for example inflows to China,
Singapore, Malaysia and other countries. Italy 0.81 66%
Over the last decade, Chinese student
outflows to US, Australia, Japan, South Ireland 0.78 61%
Korea, Canada and UK have dominated
the league table for fastest growing, in Spain 0.75 57%
absolute terms, outbound bilateral flows.
Germany 0.68 46%
There have also been some interesting
falls in bilateral student flows: Japan US 0.64 41%
to US, Greece to UK, Singapore to
Australia, China to Malaysia, Indonesia Bangladesh 0.63 40%
to Malaysia and Indonesia to US.
Russia 0.63 39%
As has previously been demonstrated,
bilateral trade patterns are an important France 0.58 34%
determinant of bilateral mobile tertiary
student origin-destination patterns, both Saudi Arabia 0.56 31%
in history and in the forecast methodology UK 0.53 29%
used to make projections to 2020. Due to
the lack of comprehensive bilateral services Australia 0.51 26%
trade data, this global analysis is based
solely on bilateral goods trade. Although at Indonesia 0.44 19%
UK level, where bilateral services data are
available, there does appear to be some Hong Kong 0.41 17%
correlation between bilateral services total
Nigeria 0.39 15%
trade and student countries of origin. This
close association is particularly true for Angola 0.29 9%
the following study destinations: Canada,
Japan, China, South Korea, India and Malaysia 0.27 7%
Switzerland. Some countries, however,
conform less to this correlation, such as Source: OECD, Oxford Economics
Malaysia, Nigeria, Hong Kong and Indonesia.
Table 2.1: Correlation between bilateral trade and outbound mobile tertiary student
The UK typically has a share of total destinations (2009)
outbound mobile students from certain
origin markets – India, Nigeria, Malaysia,
Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Ireland and
UAE – which far exceed its share of
bilateral trade with these countries. This
illustrates the additional importance of
historic and cultural ties and language in
explaining bilateral mobile student flows.

20 / Going Global 2012

 2. Global higher education sector today

Transnational education (TNE) countries, such as Brazil and Indonesia, half a million in 2010–11 (Source: HESA,
have legislative frameworks that have 2012). Singapore and Malaysia account for
Definition of TNE not proved conducive to facilitating TNE the largest share of these students (around
One definition of TNE is delivering education initiatives from overseas providers. 10 per cent each). The programmes include
where, ‘the learners are located in a country those delivered in full by a UK institution,
different from the one where the awarding Global TNE for example through distance or online
institution is based’.12 A 2011 survey of international joint and learning, or in person at an overseas branch
double degree programmes (summarised campus, and those delivered in partnership
The Global Alliance for TNE specifically in Annex B)13 shed light on their prevalence with an overseas institution.
defines TNE as an export product. There around the world. It revealed that
are a variety of ways in which education The number of students enrolled on
globally, most joint or double degree
is conducted transnationally, including via: programmes delivered at overseas branch
programmes tend to be at the masters
distance education (with or without local campuses of UK institutions is around
level (53 per cent), with the exception
support), twinning programmes, articulation 12,300. This accounted for just 2.5 per
of Australia (where the majority are at
programmes, branch campuses, and cent of people studying on foreign-
doctoral level) and the US (where the
franchising arrangements. See Annex D for based courses involving a UK institution.
majority are undergraduate courses).
some further definitional information on Overseas branch campuses have tended
different forms of TNE. The most popular subject areas were to account for a very small proportion of
business, management and engineering. the UK’s overall TNE offer, particularly when
TNE is attractive to students seeking to gain Institutions in France, Germany and Italy compared to distance learning or courses
a foreign qualification without moving from tended to have launched joint or double delivered with partner institutions.
their country of residence. It can also be degree programmes in the 1990s, while the
attractive to employers and governments The University of Nottingham is among the
UK and Australia started more recently.
looking at options for human resource global leaders on IBCs in terms of student
development, including multinational or New data on international branch campuses numbers: its campuses in Ningbo (China),
global corporations with a geographically (IBCs)14, collected in late 2011 (again and Semenyih (Malaysia), both have more
dispersed workforce. Education providers summarised in Annex B) show that the than 5,000 students and are among the five
seeking ways to expand their export campus approach is growing in popularity. largest overseas operations in the world. A
markets are also attracted to the Globally some 200 branch campuses now different approach was taken by University
possibilities opened up by transnational exist around the world, serving around of Liverpool and Xi’an Jiaotong University,
education. In other words, TNE can be a 120,000 students, with 37 more set to which in 2006 established the first
win-win for all stakeholders – students, open by 2013 (Source: Observatory on independent Sino-Foreign University: Xi’an
tertiary providers and host governments Borderless Higher Education). Overall, the Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU). The
and economies – if delivered effectively. UAE remains the most popular host country new university has its own degree awarding
(with 37 campuses), and the US by far the powers and recruits around 5,000 students.
There are very different policy frameworks most popular source (accounting for 78 Manchester Business School, University
in place across countries to support campuses worldwide). College London and Middlesex University
and promote TNE, both in terms of are other notable UK players, with several
outbound domestic students and inbound Reviews of global TNE show that Australia
smaller campuses each.
overseas students. These can be opaque, has one of the largest overseas presences
contradictory and sometimes a source of of any country, and certainly the largest
significant frustration. India, for example, relative to the size of its domestic tertiary
has so far failed to provide a clear set sector. Around a quarter of all Australian
of guidelines on what higher education university campuses are located outside
developments and partnerships it will and Australia. Its top partners for joint and
will not allow. double degrees are China, Singapore and
Indonesia, which are its near neighbours.
In China, the government often requires
overseas institutions to engage in UK TNE
partnerships with local providers, a The number of people studying entirely
policy geared towards protecting and outside of the UK on a programme delivered
improving quality standards in the domestic at least in part by a UK institution was over
education market. In addition, other

12
Council of Europe (2002). ‘Code of Good Practice in the Provision of Transnational Education’ Directorate General IV. DGIV/EDU/HE (2002) 8
13
IIE (2011), ‘Joint and Double Degree Programmes in the Global Context’ (www.iie.org/Research-and-Publications/Publications-and-Reports/IIE-Bookstore/
Joint-Degree-Survey-Report-2011)
14
The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education (2012), ‘International branch campuses: data and developments’ (www.obhe.ac.uk/documents/view_
details?id=894)

Going Global 2012 / 21

Academic research collaboration

articles produced,

produced articles,

document (2010)
Volume of research outputs and

collaboratively
Total Research

2010 (Scopus)

2010 (Scopus)

Collaboration
propensity to collaborate

Citations per

Citations per

(1996–2010)
document
Scopus and Thomson Reuters data show Country

rate (%)
that the total volume of global research
articles produced is skewed heavily towards

Total
a small number of major nations: between
1996 and 2010 almost 25 per cent of
articles were produced by the US, while just US 502,804 143,048 28.5% 1.75 20.18
five countries accounted for more than half UK 139,683 62,061 44.4% 1.81 17.42
of the total (the US, China, UK, Japan and
Germany 130,031 58,150 44.7% 1.76 15.79
Germany), and 15 countries for more than
three quarters of the total. China 320,800 47,093 14.7% 0.67 5.66
Rates of international research collaboration France 94,740 44,092 46.5% 1.57 15.09
vary significantly from country to country, Canada 77,694 34,675 44.6% 1.72 17.55
now averaging around 45 per cent in the
UK, 30 per cent in the US, 15 per cent in Italy 73,562 30,175 41.0% 1.60 14.45
China (where they have actually fallen since Japan 113,246 26,828 23.7% 1.17 11.72
the 1990s), 45–50 per cent in Germany
Australia 59,058 25,867 43.8% 1.60 16.00
and the Netherlands, and up to 65 per cent
in Switzerland. In 2010, the top countries Spain 64,985 25,845 39.8% 1.48 13.12
for producing academic research articles Netherlands 43,214 22,087 51.1% 2.22 20.05
through international collaboration were
Switzerland 30,866 19,208 62.2% 2.38 21.77
the US (143,000), UK (62,000), Germany
(58,000), China (47,000), France (44,000), Sweden 26,842 14,758 55.0% 2.03 19.09
Canada (35,000) and Italy (30,000). South Korea 55,546 14,359 25.9% 1.08 9.82
There is a strong correlation between Belgium 23,716 13,573 57.2% 1.95 17.10
international research collaboration rates
and citations per document. While not a India 71,975 12,567 17.5% 0.76 7.27
proof of causality, the association is positive Brazil 45,189 11,004 24.4% 0.79 9.57
(i.e. the direction expected) and significant
Russia 36,053 10,589 29.4% 0.60 5.21
(for 2010, 80 per cent of the variation in
citations per document across countries Source: Scopus (Elsevier) data, extracted January 2012
is ‘explained’ by international research
Table 2.2: Global share (by volume) of collaboratively produced research articles (2010)
collaboration rates).
The UK is a strong and specialised player share of articles produced by the UK Research citation impacts
in international academic research. The UK collaboratively has risen to a higher The highest citation impacts in research
accounts for around 6–7 per cent of global level than seen in most of the other are made by tertiary institutions in the
research articles (ahead of Germany and large research-producing nations. US, Europe (in particular northern Europe)
Japan), and generates output, citations Internationalisation has been actively and Australia.
and article re-usage more efficiently (both promoted from within by the UK’s tertiary
per researcher and per unit of research sector. This has been in the wake of strong At country level, within the top 30 research-
spend) than any of the other major research- evidence that overseas collaboration producing nations between 1996 and
producing nations. Between 1996 and 2010, enhances institutional reputation, corporate 2010, the highest number of citations
the UK produced more research articles in standing and research impact. In volume generated per document – a common
total than any other country except the US terms, the UK is currently in second position proxy measure of quality – was achieved
and China. The UK’s research output is well for research collaborations globally, behind by Switzerland (22), followed by the
internationalised: 63 per cent of researchers the US. Relative to the total volume of all Netherlands, Denmark and the US (20),
currently or previously affiliated to a UK research output, China and Japan slip and then Sweden, Canada, Belgium, the
institution have published at least one down the table by virtue of relatively low UK, Norway, Finland and Israel (17–19).
research article overseas15. Further, the total collaboration rates (though still remain
important players in volume terms).

BIS (2011), ‘International Comparative Performance of the UK Research Base – 2011’ (www.bis.gov.uk/policies/science/science-innovation-analysis/
15

uk-research-base)

22 / Going Global 2012

 2. Global higher education sector today

Collaboration partners ranking of main partner countries for the Toronto produced more articles through
The US is the top research collaboration UK: the US a clear leader, followed by international collaboration than any UK
partner in most countries around the world. Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and institution, and was second on the global
This is partly driven by the large scope and Australia. China now makes the top ten list ranking behind Harvard (see Table 2.3).
depth of research activity in the US, and the of UK partners, having seen collaborations
Across the global top 400 tertiary
volume of articles it produces. It may also with the UK approximately double
institutions (as ranked by the total volume of
be due in part to the fact that researchers between 2005 and 2010 (see Fig 2.8).
collaborative research output), the US has
previously studying there tend to maintain In terms of global tertiary institutions 98 representatives, Germany 29 and the UK
close links to former colleagues when they undertaking the highest volumes of 24. China has 38 representatives on the list.
return to their home countries. international collaborative research, four UK
The UK has at least eight universities
In many cases, research collaboration universities (Oxford, Cambridge, University
with an average research citation impact
partner patterns reflect close geographical, College London [UCL] and Imperial College
more than 80 per cent above the global
cultural or migratory ties – for example, London) are among the global top six,
average. In key subject areas such as
France accounts for 42 per cent of Algeria’s largely by virtue of a higher average rate
medicine, the UK is the second largest
collaboratively produced output, while of joint-working than their US counterparts
producer of research behind the US, and
Egypt was involved in around one third of (many of whom generate more articles in
often achieves a greater citation impact
Saudi Arabia’s joint research articles, and total). In these four UK institutions, around
per document than its much larger
vice versa. half of all research is undertaken with
competitor, indicating global leadership
international partners.
Analysis of collaboration patterns in some in these important scientific fields.
of the largest emerging markets reveal
important links to particular institutions. For
example, over the decade to 2008, China
partnered most frequently with researchers 20%
from the National University of Singapore,
the University of Texas, the University of 16%
Tokyo, Harvard University and the University
of Sydney. 12%
Share of the UK’s collaboratively
produced research articles, 2010
In fact, two of the same universities, Texas
and Harvard, were among the most frequent 8%
research partners in Brazil (alongside Paris
in a clear top three), while Texas also made 4%
the top two in India (behind Tokyo). This
likely indicates the extent to which research
0%
links have been driven by proactive
nd
US
any
nce

ly
s
alia
ain

a
ina

en
m
an

d
ark

ece

y
d
a
zil

uth dia
ica
and
ia

No d
nd

rwa
nad

ssi
lan

lan
lan

institutional strategy and relationships

Ita

str
lgiu

Bra
Jap
ed
rla

Afr
Sp

Ch

In
nm
str
rm

rla
Fra

Gre

eal
Ru
Ire

Po
Fin
Au
Ca

Sw
itze

Be

between key individuals.

Au
the

De
Ge

wZ
Sw
Ne

So
Ne

The top research collaboration partners for

China over the decade to 2008 were the US,
Japan, Germany, the UK, Canada, Australia,
France, Singapore and South Korea (in Source: Thomson Reuters Web of Knowledge data, extracted December 2011
descending order of importance).
Fig 2.8: Top UK collaborative research partners (2010)
In Brazil and India, the US was by far the
largest co-author of joint research. The UK
was the second most frequent collaboration In China, only Peking University matched
Globally, Harvard is a clear leader in the
partner for Brazil, but perhaps surprisingly, the global average for normalised
volume of international collaborations it
only the third most common partner for citation impact over the four-year period
engages with, despite just a third of its total
India, for which Germany achieved a higher 2005–09, though Fudan, Nanjing and the
research output being produced through
share of joint papers. smaller Nankai performed well in terms
overseas partnership. Between 2005 and
of publications within the highest-ranked
The total share of UK articles published 2009, Harvard recorded a total number
global journals.
through international collaboration has of collaborative articles some 50 per cent
risen around 15 percentage points higher than Oxford or Cambridge.
(from 30 per cent to 45 per cent) over Canadian universities also scored highly,
the decade to 2010. Both Scopus and including Toronto, British Columbia
Thomson Reuters data show the same (Vancouver) and McGill (Montreal).

Going Global 2012 / 23

 Total collab. produced
articles, 2005–2009

articles, 2005–2009

Global inst. rank for

Normalised citation

(% within top decile

output (all sectors)

impact (1 = global
Intl. collab. rate

in subject area)
Excellence rate
Total research

total research
(% of total)

average)
(Scopus)

(Scopus)
Country
Rank Institution
1 Harvard University US 69,995 34.4 24,078 2.4 35.7 4
2 University of Toronto CAN 45,771 41.1 18,812 1.8 24.3 8
3 University of Oxford UK 32,354 51.6 16,695 2.0 27.5 28
4 University of Cambridge UK 32,900 49.8 16,384 1.9 26.7 27
5 University College London UK 33,610 46.4 15,595 1.9 28.0 26
6 Imperial College London UK 29,851 51.4 15,343 1.9 26.3 36
7 The University of BC CAN 29,569 43.7 12,922 1.7 21.7 38
8 University of Tokyo JPN 48,947 26.3 12,873 1.2 17.9 6
9 Johns Hopkins University US 41,399 29.8 12,337 2.1 30.1 10
10 University of California, Berkeley US 31,943 37.4 11,947 2.1 26.6 29
11 Swiss Federal Institute of Tech. CH 20,291 58.3 11,830 1.9 24.7 79
12 Catholic University of Leuven BEL 22,498 52.2 11,744 1.7 20.9 63
13 Stanford University US 37,885 29.5 11,176 2.3 29.1 19
14 University of California, LA US 37,994 29.3 11,132 2.1 28.9 17
15 National University of Singapore SGP 25,188 44.0 11,083 1.5 17.0 51
16 U. Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6 FRA 20,786 51.4 10,684 1.5 23.5 74
17 The University of Manchester UK 25,142 41.8 10,509 1.7 19.1 52
18 McGill University CAN 23,113 45.0 10,401 1.6 23.1 58
19 University of Michigan, AA US 41,059 25.3 10,388 2.0 25.6 12
20 University of Washington US 39,428 26.2 10,330 2.1 28.6 15
21 University of California, San D. US 31,165 32.6 10,160 2.1 29.3 31
22 Massachusetts Institute of Tech. US 29,172 34.6 10,094 2.4 26.9 40
23 University of Sydney AUS 24,709 40.5 10,007 1.5 18.7 53
24 University of Sao Paulo BRA 40,196 24.8 9,969 0.8 9.9 13
25 Columbia University US 33,902 29.0 9,832 2.1 27.9 25
26 University of Copenhagen DNK 17,582 53.8 9,459 1.6 24.2 111
27 Utrecht University NLD 22,630 41.3 9,346 1.8 26.0 61
28 University of Amsterdam NLD 21,134 43.0 9,088 1.8 24.9 70
29 University of Melbourne AUS 23,561 38.3 9,024 1.7 21.8 57
30 University of Alberta CAN 22,752 39.5 8,987 1.4 18.2 59
31 The University of Edinburgh UK 18,515 46.8 8,665 1.8 23.4 93
32 Cornell University US 28,921 29.9 8,647 1.8 25.5 41
33 The University of Queensland AUS 20,436 42.1 8,604 1.6 20.0 77
34 Karolinska Institute SWE 15,693 54.3 8,521 1.8 32.1 138
35 University of California, Davis US 28,015 30.3 8,489 1.7 23.5 44
36 Lund University SWE 15,713 53.8 8,454 1.6 22.9 137
37 University of Wisconsin US 31,789 26.3 8,361 1.8 24.2 30
38 Kyoto University JPN 34,813 24.0 8,355 1.2 17.9 22
39 Universitat Heidelberg GER 20,277 40.8 8,273 1.6 24.2 80
40 Ludwig-Maximilians, Munich GER 20,863 39.6 8,262 1.7 25.0 72
Source: Adapted from SCImago Institutions Rankings (SIR), 2011, based on Scopus (Elsevier) data for 2005–09

Notes: Normalised citation impact is relative to the world average, so a rating of 1.3 means the institution is cited 30 per cent more than average. Excellence
rate is the percentage of the institution’s output included within the 10 per cent most cited papers in their respective scientific fields. Global institution
rankings also include non-HE organisations, for example government, health or private research institutes.

Table 2.3: Top global institutions within HE sector for research produced through international collaboration (2005–09) (Scopus data)

24 / Going Global 2012

 2. Global higher education sector today

2005–2009 (Scopus)
articles, 2005–2009

Normalised citation

(% within top decile

Global inst. ranking

output (all sectors)

Produced articles,

impact (1 = global

for total research

Intl. collab. rate

in subject area)
Excellence rate
Total research

Total collab.
(% of total)

average)
(Scopus)
Country
Sector
Rank Organisation

Centre National de la Recherche

1 Gov't FRA 130,977 49.0 64,179 1.4 18.7 2
Scientifique

2 Max Planck Gesellschaft Gov't GER 49,987 65.0 32,492 1.8 29.3 5

3 Russian Academy of Sciences Gov't RUS 88,907 35.0 31,117 0.5 5.9 3

4 Chinese Academy of Sciences Gov't CHN 144,269 21.5 31,018 0.9 11.3 1

Consejo Superior de Investigaciones

5 Gov't ESP 42,087 49.4 20,791 1.4 21.9 9
Cientificas

6 National Institutes of Health United States Health US 46,819 35.3 16,527 2.3 40.1 7

7 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Gov't ITA 37,928 42.5 16,119 1.3 17.7 18

8 Partners HealthCare System Health US 38,096 28.5 10,857 2.6 36.5 16

9 Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique Gov't FRA 19,935 51.1 10,187 1.5 19.6 83

10 Polish Academy of Sciences Gov't POL 20,274 48.9 9,914 0.9 11.1 81

11 Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Gov't CZE 18,163 52.9 9,608 1.1 14.1 101

Institut National de la Sante et de la

12 Health FRA 22,679 39.8 9,026 1.8 35.4 60
Recherche

13 Assistance Publique Hopitaux de Paris Health FRA 36,013 24.6 8,859 1.6 21.1 21

14 Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare Gov't ITA 13,437 59.3 7,968 1.3 12.9 188

15 National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Gov't UKR 18,928 41.6 7,874 0.5 5.0 89

16 United States Department of Agriculture Gov't US 29,796 23.9 7,121 1.3 18.5 37

National Aeronautics and Space

17 Gov't US 20,634 31.3 6,458 1.6 16.9 76
Administration

18 Hungarian Academy of Sciences Gov't HUN 11,565 54.8 6,338 1.0 14.4 237

19 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Gov't US 11,104 55.4 6,152 2.1 27.1 245

20 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers Health US 36,902 16.3 6,015 2.0 30.6 20

Source: Adapted from SCImago Institutions Rankings (SIR), 2011, based on Scopus (Elsevier) data for 2005–09

Table 2.4: Top global institutions outside the HE sector for research produced through international collaboration (2005–09) (Scopus data)

Extending the analysis beyond the tertiary Globally, for instance, Harvard ranks Chinese Academies of Sciences. Between
sector, it becomes apparent that some only fifth on the overall list of research them, over the period 2005–09, these
of the largest volumes of internationally collaborations by volume, behind the four state institutes produced more
collaborative academic research involve French Centre National de la Recherché research articles through international
government-sponsored research institutes Scientifique (CNRS), the German Max collaboration than the top 13 US
in major countries. Planck Institutes, and the Russian and universities combined (see Table 2.4).

Going Global 2012 / 25

Business research collaboration
Mexico
In a climate of fiscal austerity and with many Chile (2007–08)
universities facing significant operational Russia (manufacturing)
Brazil
pressures, there will be increasing pressure New Zealand (2008–09)
for institutions to consider opportunities China (2004–06)
Turkey
to generate income from commercial Estonia
relationships with the private sector and UK
Israel
overseas nations. At their best, these Spain
relationships can represent best practice Italy
models of innovation, and provide valuable Ireland
Switzerland
revenue to sustain and develop core Germany
teaching and research programmes. Czech Republic
France
Luxembourg
Globally, the US and Japan are clear South Africa (2005–07)
leaders in terms of the volume of patent Portugal
applications filed in collaboration with other Norway
South Korea (2005–07)
countries – but this is primarily driven by the Netherlands
very large volume of patents they generate Belgium
Sweden
rather than a particular tendency towards Slovak Republic
collaboration. The highest rates of overseas Austria
Hungary
partnership in patenting activity (around 80 Finland
per cent) are found in countries including
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
India, Brazil and Australia, with rates in the
US and Japan fairly average by international % firms
standards (around 40 per cent), and indeed
below those of the UK (around 60 per cent). Source: OECD

Significantly, rates of patent collaboration in Fig 2.9: Share of firms collaborating on innovation with higher education or government research
China remain well below the world average, institutions – large firms (2006–08)
indicating – as with its falling collaboration
rate in academic research – both a R and D activities in the UK being funded some of the highest rates of collaboration
confidence in domestic technological from overseas16 – the highest rate in the with university and government research
leadership and a number of practical OECD area, highlighting the UK’s strong institutions of any OECD nation (only behind
(e.g. language) and cultural barriers to reputation. In 2010, despite producing 14 Finland and Belgium between 2006 and
overseas partnering. Looking at specific per cent of the world’s most highly-cited 2008). But collaboration between larger
technologies within the Chinese market, the academic journal articles (second only to firms and universities is much lower than
key drivers of patent growth since 2000 the US)17, the UK managed to record just overseas competitors: just 25 per cent
have been digital communications and 2.2 per cent of global patent applications. between 2006 and 2008, compared with
telecoms engineering; there is also strong This is due in part to a smaller percentage almost 70 per cent in Finland and 40–50
growth in areas potentially better suited to of total research spending on business per cent in countries like Hungary, Sweden,
UK collaboration, such as biotechnology, enterprise activity than many other nations. Belgium and the Netherlands (see Fig 2.9
pharmaceuticals, medical technologies and In other words, the UK’s research tends to and Fig 2.10). These data imply a degree
materials chemistry. be more ‘fundamental’, considering basic of resistance among some of the higher-
The UK has a mixed track record at linking scientific principles, than commercially rated UK research institutions towards
its strong university and government R and applied. However, looking at overall rates commercial engagement, or at least barriers
D base to private innovation. The share of of collaborative activity within business to this engagement, and the recent Wilson
business-funded R and D in these sectors R and D, the UK is a leading international review of university-business collaboration
has halved since 1999 (to just five per cent), player. According to OECD data, UK firms (February 2012) suggested universities
ranking it far below competitors as diverse are highly likely to collaborate on innovation were ‘an under-used resource’ in attracting
as Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, China, with other organisations, both at home and inward investment and generating research
Australia, Finland, Spain, South Korea and overseas. The data also show that the UK’s income from global companies.18
Canada. This is despite 23 per cent of all small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have

16
BIS (2011), ‘Innovation and Research Strategy for Growth’, (www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/innovation/docs/i/11-1387-innovation-and-research-strategy-for-
growth.pdf)
17
Royal Society (2011), ‘Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century’ (http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_
Society_Content/policy/publications/2011/4294976134.pdf)
18
Wilson, T (2012), ‘A review of business – University collaboration: www.wilsonreview.co.uk/review

26 / Going Global 2012

 2. Global higher education sector today

shares being more than double in all

Mexico cases). Belgium, Austria, Ireland and
Chile (2007–08) Luxembourg also receive more funding
Russia (manufacturing)
Brazil than their population share would predict,
New Zealand (2008–09) but to a lesser extent.
China (2004–06)
Turkey 3 At a headline country level, the UK
Estonia
UK partnered most on FP6 and FP7 with
Israel institutions and organisations in Germany,
Spain France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands,
Italy
Ireland as would be expected from those
Switzerland countries’ higher levels of absolute
Germany
Czech Republic participation in the programme. But there
France are interesting patterns in the share of
Luxembourg
South Africa (2005–07) other EU countries’ collaborations with
Portugal the UK relative to their total overseas
Norway
South Korea (2005–07) collaborations – a measure which
Netherlands effectively shows their propensity to
Belgium
Sweden choose the UK as opposed to other
Slovak Republic countries as project partners. In FP6, the
Austria
Hungary biggest ‘UK bias’ was seen in Denmark,
Finland Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden. In
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% the early years of FP7, this switched to
Lithuania, the Netherlands, Germany and
% firms
Poland, although Denmark, Ireland and
Sweden still showed notable levels of bias
Source: OECD towards the UK.
Fig 2.10: Share of firms collaborating on innovation with higher education or government research 4 Looking at countries outside the EU who
institutions – SMEs (2006–08) participated in programme projects,19
the highest rates of UK bias in FP6
Joint technological development the Department for Business Innovation (defined in the same way, by the share
and Skills (BIS) in 2010. This document of UK collaborations being significantly
• Some interesting lessons for research higher than the share of all overseas
sheds light on both the most research-
collaboration are available from analysis collaborations) were seen in Norway,
active countries and the UK’s individual
of participations in the European Iceland and South Africa. India, Australia
collaborations:
Research and Technical Development and Switzerland also showed a bias
(RTD) Framework Programmes, which 1 Of all overseas organisations partnering
towards the UK, to a lesser extent. In the
have become the continent’s primary with the UK (some 43,000 in total in FP6
early stages of FP7, Norway, India, South
source of collaborative research funding. and 16,000 in the early stages of FP7,
Africa and Iceland still all showed a strong
The seventh programme, FP7, which from 120 countries around the world),
bias towards the UK as a project partner.
runs from 2007–2013, is worth more around 40 per cent were HEIs, 20–25 per
However, the highest rates of UK bias
than €50 billion, and by March 2011 cent were private companies and 25–30
were shown by Australia, China and Brazil
the UK had received more funding and per cent were specialist research
– where the over-representation of the UK
been involved in more projects than institutes (whether publicly or privately
as a partner was very high.
any other country except Germany. To funded). The UK’s top universities were at
be approved for a research grant under the forefront of the UK’s funded research
• Since HEIs accounted for the majority of
these programmes, an application is collaborations within the programme –
UK involvement in both FP6 and FP7, at
normally required to involve multiple the most frequent participants, in order,
around 56 per cent of all participations in
countries, and is encouraged to involve were London, Oxford, Cambridge,
the former and 61 per cent in the latter
different organisational types (e.g. Higher Imperial, Manchester, Edinburgh,
(to November 2009), this information is
Education Institutions [HEIs], research Southampton, Nottingham and Newcastle.
very relevant to the future of international
institutes or private companies). 2 The most research-active countries, in higher education collaboration.
• An evaluation of the UK’s role in FP7 terms of their EU27 share of FP6 and FP7
and FP6 (its predecessor, which ran funding relative to their share of EU27
from 2003–2008) was produced for population, are Finland, Sweden, Denmark
and the Netherlands (the ratio of the two

Applicants from all countries are welcomed, although projects must clearly demonstrate their potential benefit to the European economy.
19

Going Global 2012 / 27

Top UK universities for of the rest – in terms of both quantity Nottingham, Liverpool, Cardiff, Newcastle
collaborative research and quality indicators. The remainder and Warwick. With the exception of
of the UK ranking table on international Glasgow being a few places lower than
• The UK universities producing the collaborations largely features the expected, this ranking order reflects
highest numbers of international research Russell Group, including (in order, from almost perfectly the normalised global
collaborations are Oxford, Cambridge, fifth position downwards), Manchester, citation impact of each institution’s total
UCL and Imperial College London. These Edinburgh, Bristol, Southampton, King’s, research output.
four institutions are some way clear Birmingham, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds,

UK Institution Total Intl. collab. Total Normalised Excellence Global inst.

rank research rate collab. citation rate ranking for
articles, (% of total) produced impact (% within total
2005 –2009 articles, (1= global top decile research
(Scopus) 2005-2009 average) in subject output
(Scopus) area) (all sectors)

1 University of Oxford 32,354 51.6 16,695 2.0 27.5 28

2 University of Cambridge 32,900 49.8 16,384 1.9 26.7 27
3 University College London 33,610 46.4 15,595 1.9 28.0 26
4 Imperial College London 29,851 51.4 15,343 1.9 26.3 36
5 The University of Manchester 25,142 41.8 10,509 1.7 19.1 52
6 The University of Edinburgh 18,515 46.8 8,665 1.8 23.4 93
7 University of Bristol 16,037 44.4 7,120 1.8 23.2 131
8 University of Southampton 15,159 43.8 6,640 1.6 19.2 149
9 King’s College London 15,814 41.6 6,579 1.8 25.6 135
10 University of Birmingham 14,899 40.9 6,094 1.6 20.6 153
11 University of Glasgow 13,458 44.8 6,029 1.8 21.5 186
12 The University of Sheffield 15,336 38.3 5,874 1.6 20.4 144
13 University of Leeds 13,853 40.2 5,569 1.5 19.7 171
14 University of Nottingham 15,091 36.6 5,523 1.5 18.6 151
15 University of Liverpool 11,636 46.0 5,353 1.5 19.5 234
16 Cardiff University 12,175 39.3 4,785 1.5 21.0 214
17 Newcastle University 10,649 41.7 4,441 1.7 22.3 258
18 University of Warwick 9,025 43.2 3,899 1.4 16.3 319
19 Queen Mary, Univ. of London 8,478 45.5 3,857 1.8 23.6 344
20 University of Aberdeen 8,206 46.1 3,783 1.6 22.7 353
21 University of Durham 7,807 48.2 3,763 1.8 23.1 378
22 University of Leicester 7,870 45.3 3,565 1.7 22.5 372
23 Queen's University Belfast 8,021 43.3 3,473 1.4 17.7 365
24 University of York 8,099 40.0 3,240 1.6 20.2 360
Source: Adapted from SCImago Institutions Rankings (SIR), 2011, based on Scopus (Elsevier) data for 2005–09

Notes: Normalised citation impact is relative to the world average, so a rating of 1.3 means the institution is cited 30 per cent more than average. Excellence
rate is the percentage of the institution’s output included within the 10 per cent most cited papers in their respective scientific fields. Global institution
rankings also include non-HE organisations, for example government, health or private research institutes.

Table 2.5: Top UK HE institutions for research produced through international collaboration (2005–09) (Scopus data)

28 / Going Global 2012

 Global higher education sector today

Postgraduate researchers in UK
Country Total Share of Share of Concentration
• We have obtained data on the total postgraduate UK total overseas of researchers
number of postgraduate research researchers students vs students
students at UK institutions during the in UK in UK
2010–11 academic year, from Higher (2010 –11)
Education Statistics Agency (HESA). This
China 3,955 9.3% 12.9% 0.7
shows that the top sources of overseas
research students for the UK are China, US 2,840 6.6% 3.9% 1.7
the US, Germany, Italy and Saudi Arabia
Germany 2,480 5.8% 3.9% 1.5
(Table 2.6). Between them, these five
countries account for just over 30 per Italy 1,810 4.2% 1.7% 2.5
cent of the overseas total, including 9.3
Saudi Arabia 1,785 4.2% 1.4% 3.0
per cent from China.
• By comparing the share of overseas Greece 1,705 4.0% 3.3% 1.2
postgraduate researchers from each India 1,605 3.8% 9.4% 0.4
country with that country’s share
of overseas students (including Malaysia 1,435 3.4% 3.5% 1.0
undergraduates), we can build a picture Ireland 1,235 2.9% 4.2% 0.7
of where the UK’s academic research
links are proportionately the strongest. Nigeria 1,145 2.7% 4.0% 0.7
By dividing one share by the other (as Canada 1,085 2.5% 1.5% 1.7
in Table 2.6), we have calculated the
relative concentration of postgraduate Pakistan 1,020 2.4% 2.6% 0.9
researchers in the UK from each country. Iran 960 2.2% 0.8% 2.8
This analysis shows that the highest
concentrations of researchers relative France 920 2.2% 3.6% 0.6
to students (we have highlighted those Thailand 805 1.9% 1.3% 1.4
greater than two) are provided by Italy,
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Libya, Mexico, Iraq, Libya 780 1.8% 0.6% 3.0
Egypt and Kuwait. By contrast, countries Poland 690 1.6% 2.5% 0.6
with a relatively low concentration of
researchers relative to students include Spain 660 1.5% 1.6% 1.0
China, India, Ireland, Nigeria, France, Mexico 615 1.4% 0.4% 3.6
Poland, Cyprus and Japan.
Portugal 605 1.4% 0.8% 1.8
Cyprus 590 1.4% 2.9% 0.5
South Korea 550 1.3% 1.2% 1.1
Turkey 550 1.3% 0.7% 1.8
Iraq 475 1.1% 0.2% 5.6
Netherlands 470 1.1% 0.9% 1.2
Egypt 415 1.0% 0.4% 2.4
Kuwait 370 0.9% 0.4% 2.2
Australia 365 0.8% 0.5% 1.7
Jordan 325 0.8% 0.4% 1.9
Japan 325 0.8% 1.1% 0.7
United Arab Emirates 295 0.7% 0.7% 1.0
Source: HESA data, January 2012

Note: Taiwan and Hong Kong are excluded from the analysis because comparable student
data is unavailable

Table 2.6: Country breakdown of overseas postgraduate researchers in the UK (2010–11)

Going Global 2012 / 29

30 / Going Global 2012
3. Drivers of higher
education demand

Drivers of higher education demand 32

Demographic drivers 33
Economic drivers 34
3. Drivers of higher
education demand

Box 3.1: Drivers of higher education demand – key facts

Demographics – by 2020, four countries (India, China, the US and Indonesia) will
account for over 50 per cent of 18–22 year-olds globally; while China’s 18–22 population
is forecast to remain large at over 90 million in 2020, it is projected by the UN Population
Division to fall by over 20 million over the next decade given the current number of 8–12
year-olds; Russia’s 18–22 population is also projected to fall; the 18–22 populations in
Nigeria, India, Ethiopia, Philippines and Pakistan are projected to grow by 3.9 million, 2.9
million, 1.9 million, 1.2 million and 0.9 million respectively over the next decade despite
divergent projections across countries. Overall the global 18–22 age group population
outlook is stable; but this will still mark a significant change from recent decades where
the 18–22 age group expanded rapidly.
Economics – strong correlation between wealth (gross domestic product [GDP]
per capita at purchasing power parity [PPP]) and tertiary enrolment, particularly up
to US$10,000 annual household income; many of the emerging economies which
performed strongly in the 2000s are forecast to continue growing strongly; both China
and India are forecast to continue to be at the top of global growth league tables;
following closely behind are economies such as Angola, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri
Lanka, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Malaysia and Brazil; consequently several emerging
economies will be significantly wealthier in a decade, i.e. have higher PPP GDP per capita,
even when measured in constant prices; but despite strong economic growth, many of
the shortlisted economies will still have PPP GDP per capita below US$10,000 in 2020 –
Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, India, Morocco, Indonesia and Sri Lanka.

There are demographic drivers (specifically

the 18–22 age group population) and
economic drivers (economic growth,
economic wealth and household incomes
and other macroeconomic variables such
as the exchange rate – the latter is more
relevant for inbound student mobility)
underpinning international student mobility.
There are of course other key drivers, such
as the legal framework in overseas markets
governing transnational education (TNE)
and political stances on outbound and
inbound mobile student flows, but these are
harder to quantify and therefore forecast.

32 / Going Global 2012

 3. Drivers of higher education demand

Demographic drivers
UK 3,679
By 2020, just four countries – India, China, Iraq 3,820
Other shortlisted
US and Indonesia – will account for over half France 4,031
Countries 50,736
of the world’s 18–22 population. A further Colombia 4,271
quarter of the world’s 18–22 population Thailand 4,745
in 2020 will come from Pakistan, Nigeria, South Africa 4,826
India 118,864
Brazil, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Philippines, Kenya 5,007
Mexico, Egypt and Vietnam. The 50+ Iran 5,523
shortlisted countries considered in this Japan 5,832
study are projected to account for over 80 Turkey 6,312
per cent of the world’s 18–22 population in Russia 6,570
2020 (see Fig 3.1). Vietnam 6,589
Egypt 7,310
While China’s 18–22 population is forecast Mexico 10,302
to remain large at over 90 million in 2020,
Philippines 10,559
it is projected by the UN Population
Division to fall by over 20 million over the Ethiopia 10,816
next decade given the current number
Bangladesh 15,490
of 8–12 year-olds. As demographic China 91,177
forecasts are based on current population Brazil 16,725
levels of younger age groups, they
Nigeria 19,408
tend to be accurate (see Fig 3.2).
Pakistan 19,482 US 21,658
However, it is not only China that is Indonesia 20,336 000’s
projected to experience a fall in its tertiary
age population. With birth rates having Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics
fallen for a sustained period in (i) many
Fig 3.1: Global tertiary age (18–22) population (2020)
advanced economies (although there
have been some recent reversals which
are expected to be temporary), and (ii)
the nations of the Commonwealth of
Independent States, in many parts of the
world it will be the norm to see declining China
population numbers of tertiary age. The Russia
projected fall in the 18–22 age group in Iran
Russia is stark, which remains blighted by Vietnam
adverse demographics. The US and Brazil, Ukraine
however, are noteworthy for their relatively Nepal
stable demographic outlooks for 18–22 Bangladesh
year-olds (see Fig 3.3). Angola
The 18–22 age group populations in Kenya
Nigeria, India, Ethiopia, Philippines and Iraq
Pakistan are projected to grow by 3.9 Pakistan
million, 2.9 million, 1.9 million, 1.2 million Philippines
and 0.9 million respectively over the next Ethiopia
decade. Applying the current or higher India
tertiary enrolment ratio to this increase Nigeria
in 18–22 year-olds implies that these
-25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000
demographic projections will provide a
000’s
strong boost to tertiary demand, both
domestically and internationally.
Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics

Fig 3.2: Global tertiary age (18–22) population growth (2011–20)

Going Global 2012 / 33

Despite divergent projections across
countries, overall the global 18–22 age 2002=100
group population outlook is stable. Although
120
this will still mark a significant change from
Forecast
recent decades where the 18–22 age group
expanded rapidly. 110

Economic drivers
100
The importance of an economy’s average
economic wealth as a driver of future
tertiary education demand is clearly 90
illustrated by the correlation between PPP
GDP per capita and gross tertiary enrolment
80 US
ratios, as illustrated in Fig 3.4. Not only is
Germany
the relationship positive and statistically
South Korea
significant, but more importantly, at low 70 Brazil
PPP GDP per capita levels, gross tertiary
Russia
enrolment ratios tend to increase sharply
India
for relatively small increases in GDP per 60
China
capita (see Fig 3.4). In practice this is
likely to reflect rising household incomes,
50
growing middle classes, demand from
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
parents to provide their children with a
tertiary education, and a higher gradient Year
of skills demand from structurally changing
economies. It may also reflect an increased Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics
fiscal capacity of governments to fund and
expand access to tertiary education. Fig 3.3: Global tertiary age (18–22) population

While not all countries fall on or close to

the line of best fit, in many cases there
are obvious explanations (e.g. commodity-
120%
dependent economies tend to fall below the y = 0.1693In(x) – 1.1472
line of best fit). As an economy’s PPP GDP R² = 0.5378
per capita rises above US$10,000 (where on South Korea
100%
Gross tertiary enrolment ration

average a country’s tertiary enrolment ratio

is around 40 per cent), the increments in Greece US
Ukraine
tertiary enrolment ratios become smaller. 80%
Amongst this study’s shortlist of 50+
countries, approximately half currently
have PPP GDP per capita levels below 60% Singapore
US$10,000. Thus, provided these
economies grow strongly over the next
decade, there is significant scope for 40%
their tertiary enrolment ratios to increase. UAE
While GDP per capita clearly matters for Mexico and Malaysia
tertiary enrolment ratios, which in turn 20%
Trinidad and Tobago
drives household incomes along with
Botswana
income distribution patterns, it is useful to
0%
consider briefly how short-term turbulence 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
in economic growth affects the global
tertiary education sector. The recent Nominal PPP US$ GDP per capita
global recession is an ideal period to test
hypotheses, marking an abrupt reversal
from a previous long, largely unbroken Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics
period of growth in the world economy Fig 3.4: Cross-country relationship between PPP
and world trade. GDP per capita and gross tertiary enrolment ratios

34 / Going Global 2012

 3. Drivers of higher education demand

With complete tertiary education data only annual average GDP growth above four per performance should not be significantly
available up to 2009, this may be too soon cent, twice the rate of growth forecast for affected unless there is an escalation of the
to observe the full impact from the global most European economies over the next Eurozone crisis, for example if countries
recession. Indeed the impact may have decade (see Fig 3.6). are forced to exit the single currency. It is
a long lag. One dimension where this is hard to envisage how a Eurozone break-
Eurozone economies in particular will
already highly evident is on public finances up scenario, given the extent of negative
be hampered by sluggish economic
and consequently public funding of the impact predicted, would not have a very
performance in the medium term. Despite
tertiary sector. noticeable effect on the global higher
Europe being a key export market for
education sector.
At global level, the recession pushed world many emerging economies, their growth
GDP growth into negative territory in 2009,
with world trade falling even further by
close to 10 per cent. Half of the shortlisted
50+ countries also went into recession % annual 000’s
during 2009, although importantly some 12% 3,800
of the major origin markets for mobile
outbound tertiary students – China, India, 3,600
8%
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria etc – still
3,400
posted positive, and in many cases, strong
rates of GDP growth in 2009. Despite 4%
3,200
the severity of the world recession, the
number of global mobile tertiary students 0% 3,000
increased in 2009, and across all but a 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
small number of the shortlisted countries, 2,800
-4%
including those that suffered significant
sharp drops in output. This suggests GDP growth (LHS axis) 2,600
that at least in the short term, the world -8% World trade growth (LHS axis)
Mobile tertiary students (RHS axis) 2,400
recession has not significantly impacted
international tertiary flows (see Fig 3.5). -12% 2,200
This may be linked to the fact that certain
demographic groups were more negatively
affected by the recession, including low
Source: OECD, Oxford Economics
income households who are less likely to
fund their children to study overseas. But, Fig 3.5: Global mobile tertiary students and global GDP and trade (2002–09)
like many aspects of the world recession,
the fallout could be long-lived and impacts
could yet be felt on the global tertiary
% annual
education sector in years to come.
15
Returning to the long-term economic Forecast
growth outlooks for the shortlisted
countries, the key message is the continued 10
strong growth forecast for many of the
emerging economies, which also performed
strongly in the 2000s.
5
Despite important downside risks – notably
a ‘hard landing’ in China stemming from
financial sector imbalances and an over- 0
inflated property sector, which would have 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
significant knock-on effects throughout the
region – both China and India are forecast Greece Nigeria
-5
Italy Indonesia
to continue to be at the top of global growth
Spain India
league tables. China
Following closely behind are economies -10
such as Angola, Vietnam, Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Source: Haver Analytics, Oxford Economics
Malaysia and Brazil. Each has forecast
Fig 3.6: Selected country GDP growth

Going Global 2012 / 35

Translating economic growth forecasts
into PPP GDP per capita levels in 2020, Zimbabwe
it is evident how several emerging Ethiopia 2011
economies will be significantly wealthier Nepal
2020
Kenya
in a decade, i.e. have higher PPP GDP Bangladesh
per capita, even when measured in Nigeria
constant prices (see Fig 3.7 and Fig 3.8). Pakistan
Ghana
Based on the correlation relationship Vietnam
Uzbekistan
described above, countries such as China, India
Colombia and Brazil, with their rising wealth, Philippines
Indonesia
should start to close the gap in tertiary Jordan
enrolment rates on advanced economies, Morocco
provided there are no capacity bottlenecks. Iraq
Angola
Despite strong economic growth, many of Sri Lanka
Egypt
the shortlisted economies will still have PPP Ukraine
GDP per capita below US$10,000 in 2020 – China
Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, India, Thailand
Iran
Morocco, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. This is Colombia
likely to constrain how soon these countries South Africa
Brazil
close the gap in tertiary enrolment rates
on advanced economies. But it does also 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
mean the decade beyond 2020 should see Real US$ PPP GDP per capita (2005 prices)
continued rises in enrolment ratios and
strong growth in tertiary education demand,
Source: Oxford Economics
subject to demographics.
Fig 3.7: Global PPP GDP per capita (2011 and 2020)

US$ 2005 prices

40,000
Malaysia Forecast
35,000 Turkey
Saudi Arabia
30,000 Nigeria
Indonesia
25,000 India
China
20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Source: Haver Analytics, Oxford Economics

Fig 3.8: Selected country PPP GDP per capita

36 / Going Global 2012

4. The global higher
education sector to 2020

The global higher education sector to 2020 38

Tertiary enrolments 39
International student mobility 41
Transnational education (TNE) 45
International research collaboration 46
4. The global higher
education sector to 2020

Box 4.1: Global higher education sector to 2020 – key facts

Tertiary enrolments – forecast to rise across most countries to 2020, but at a slower
rate than previous decades (1.4 per cent per annum compared to 5–6 per cent per
annum); 21 million additional tertiary enrolments by 2020; Chinese growth significantly
down but still second largest absolute increase behind India; other emerging economies
with significant forecast growth in tertiary enrolments over the next decade include: Brazil
(+2.6 million), Indonesia (+2.3 million), Nigeria (+1.4 million), Philippines (+0.7 million),
Bangladesh (+0.7 million), Turkey (+0.7 million) and Ethiopia (+0.6 million).
International student mobility – largest numbers of mobile students in 2020
expected to be from China (585,000), India (296,000), South Korea (134,000),
Germany (100,000), Turkey (84,000), Malaysia (82,000) and Nigeria (67,000);
largest increase from India (+71,000 from 2011), followed by Nigeria, Malaysia,
Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
TNE – Asia and Middle East to continue to offer strongest growth opportunities; legal,
political and institutional frameworks in host countries a key driver, alongside tertiary
enrolment demand.
Academic international research collaboration – largest recent growth in
collaborative articles in the US (+78,000 since 2000) and China (+40,000); growth to
2020 expected to be driven by high volume markets, with China matching the US by the
end of the decade.
Business international research collaboration – likely to see significant revenue
growth from global ‘open innovation’ partnerships between multinational companies,
SMEs and universities. Opportunities in countries with high and unexploited innovative
collaborations with the tertiary sectors, and countries with high and growing
internationally-filed patents.

Note: Forecasts in this chapter should be

considered as ‘policy neutral’ – i.e. not
reflecting any specific country policy aims,
which are fundamentally different from the
past, or specific country targets.
Forecasts are driven by UN Population
Division demographic projections, Oxford
Economics’ latest economic outlooks and
past trends. Uniform data sources and a
uniform method across all countries are
used for consistency.
The forecasts are the ‘most likely’ outcome,
constrained by sustainable growth in the
overall global higher education sector. This
effectively captures the global competition
there will be for the same ‘pool’ of mobile
students. Countries may have more
ambitious targets for domestic tertiary
enrolments and specific targets for inbound
and outbound mobile students. Such
simulations are better handled as scenarios
around a central case forecast.

38 / Going Global 2012

 4. The global higher education sector to 2020

Tertiary enrolments
Ethiopia
Kenya
Driven by both economic (PPP GDP per Pakistan
capita) and trend forecasts, gross tertiary Angola 2009
Botswana
enrolment ratios are forecast to rise across Nepal
2020
Ghana
all shortlisted countries (see Fig 4.1).20 The Uzbekistan
Bangladesh
scope for tertiary enrolment ratio growth is Sri Lanka
more limited among countries with already Nigeria
Morocco
high enrolment ratios. Instead the greatest Zimbabwe
India
potential for tertiary enrolment ratio growth Trinidad and Tobago
Vietnam
is with countries with low- to mid-current Indonesia
enrolment ratios and strong economic Iraq
China
growth outlooks. South Africa
Mauritius
Mexico
The forecasts for tertiary enrolment ratios Philippines
for some countries might be considered Egypt
Saudi Arabia
conservative as the ranking of countries UAE
Brazil
remains largely unchanged and large Malaysia
gaps are still expected to exist between Iran
Colombia
tertiary enrolment ratios in advanced Kazakhstan
Jordan
economies and emerging and developing Turkey
Thailand
economies. For example, China’s gross Switzerland
tertiary enrolment ratio is forecast to rise Germany
France
to 38 per cent from 24 per cent and India’s Hong Kong
Japan
from 16 per cent to 23 per cent. That said, UK
Israel
the improvements in tertiary enrolment Canada
ratios are non-trivial and look plausible on Ireland
Romania
the basis of past trends, and are predicated Singapore
Italy
on the assumption of no major shift in Poland
education policy. Spain
Russia
Belarus
In addition, if it was believed that tertiary Australia
Venezuela
enrolment ratio forecasts should be Ukraine
stronger, a key question is whether the Greece
US
future skill needs of economies would South Korea
justify the need for such a strong uplift in -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
tertiary graduates. Tertiary enrolment level
forecasts are the product of forecasts for Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics
tertiary enrolment ratios and the 18–22 age
group population. The twin effect of both Fig 4.1: Global gross tertiary enrolment ratio (2009 and 2020)
helps to explain future growth in tertiary
enrolments. For all shortlisted countries and demographic trends no longer as underlying assumptions – a one per cent
combined, total tertiary enrolments are favourable, e.g. in China and Russia. increase in China’s tertiary enrolment ratio
forecast to grow by 21 million between would result in an extra one million tertiary
China and India dominated global growth
2011 and 2020, or 1.4 per cent per annum enrolments per year.
in tertiary enrolments between 2002
on average. This compares to global
and 2009, accounting for 26 million of Following China and India, other emerging
tertiary enrolment growth of five per cent
the overall increase of 55 million. Their economies with significant forecast growth
per annum in the previous two decades
combined forecast growth for the period in tertiary enrolments over the next decade
(and almost six per cent for the shortlisted
2011–20 is down to 12 million, with growth include: Brazil (+2.6 million), Indonesia (+2.3
countries between 2002 and 2009). Thus
in tertiary enrolments in China falling from million), Nigeria (+1.4 million), Philippines
a significant slowdown in growth rates of
17 million to five million. India’s tertiary (+0.7 million), Bangladesh (+0.7 million),
tertiary enrolments is predicted across
enrolment growth in absolute terms is Turkey (+0.7 million) and Ethiopia (+0.6
the shortlisted countries. This in some
forecast to outpace China’s growth between million) (see Fig 4.3).
ways should be expected with the sector
now and 2020. However, it should be
maturing or slowing in some markets,
noted that forecasts are highly sensitive to

Except for Greece which already had a high enrolment ratio in 2009, and has on average the weakest economic growth outlook across the
20

shortlisted countries.

Going Global 2012 / 39

The Gulf countries have a rising Vietnam 1,691
prominence in many aspects of economic Ukraine 1,804 Other shortlisted
and cultural life, and view high quality Countries 20,968
Italy 1,844
education as a natural complement to their
Germany 1,973
internationalisation process. Education China 37,444
Colombia 2,192
investment per capita in these countries is
likely to exceed anywhere else in the world. UK 2,202
TNE opportunities for the UK, may, though France 2,207
Venezuela 2,354
remain more limited compared with other
regions simply due to critical mass. The Gulf Bangladesh 2,417
countries included in the shortlist for this Thailand 2,587
study – Saudi Arabia and UAE – had fewer Egypt 2,813
than one million tertiary enrolments in 2009, South Korea 2,971
and this figure is forecast to grow to only Mexico 3,530
1.2 million by 2020, compared to 28 million India 27,798
Philippines 3,592
in India by 2020. That said, there is a large
Nigeria 3,614
number of overseas students who travel to
Iran 3,789
education hubs in Gulf States to enrol on
Turkey 3,810
TNE programmes, but often the scale of
Japan 3,845
these inflows is not recorded.
Russia 6,304
US 19,987
Legal frameworks for TNE are also likely to Indonesia 7,692
be more supportive in Gulf States than in Brazil 9,221 000’s
India and China. The key point is that TNE in
Gulf States can be sustainable by attracting Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics
third country nationals from within the Fig 4.2: Global tertiary enrolments (2020)
region, similar to the role Malaysia is playing
meeting regional demand (e.g. for students
from Indonesia).
Tertiary enrolment levels are forecast to
fall in Russia and Ukraine for demographic
reasons outlined earlier, and noteworthy
also, in both Germany and South Korea by Russia
approximately 0.3 million by 2020. By 2020, Ukraine
four countries – China, India, US and Brazil Poland
(replacing Russia) – are forecast to account South Korea
Germany
for more than half of total shortlisted Belarus
country tertiary enrolments. In addition to Romania
Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey and Nigeria will Vietnam
become increasingly important players in UK
the global tertiary education sector, while Kazakhstan
Mexico
Russia, Japan and South Korea’s market Ethiopia
shares are forecast to fall (see Fig 4.2). Turkey
Bangladesh
Philippines
Nigeria
Indonesia
Brazil
China
India
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
000’s

Source: Oxford Economics

Fig 4.3: Global tertiary enrolment growth (2011-2020)

40 / Going Global 2012

 4. The global higher education sector to 2020

International student mobility

% annual
Outbound mobility
10
Outbound mobility ratios are forecast
Forecast India China
using a combination of the following
variables: household incomes, trend factors, Malaysia Greece
exchange rate, and domestic tertiary sector 8 UK Nigeria
capacity. As outbound mobility ratios tend Saudi Arabia
historically to be relatively stable or at least
the trend is relatively stable, there are no
major deviations forecast for the path of 6
outbound mobility ratios, except in special
circumstances. These deviations include a
rise in the outbound mobility ratio for the 4
UK in response to the hike in tuition fees,
and a fall in the outbound mobility ratio for
southern European economies as a result
of weak economic outlooks and knock-on 2
effect to household incomes.
India’s tertiary outbound mobility ratio
is forecast to stay stable at 1.0 per cent; 0
China’s is set to fall moderately to 1.4 per
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
cent; Malaysia’s ratio is projected to fall to
6.6 per cent from 6.9 per cent in 2009; and
Singapore’s is forecast to fall most to 5.4 Source: UNESCO, OECD, Oxford Economics
per cent, following sharp falls in the 2000s.
Fig 4.4: Selected country tertiary outbound mobility ratio
Moderate rises in outbound mobility ratios
are forecast for Nigeria, Pakistan, Vietnam,
Saudi Arabia, UAE and Philippines.
The forecast on outbound mobile
students is the product of forecasts for
Other shortlisted
tertiary enrolment and outbound mobility Countries 472
ratios. In absolute level terms, China,
China 585
India and South Korea are still forecast
to be the largest outbound tertiary
student markets. Turkey, Malaysia and
Colombia 32
Nigeria also feature in the 2020 ‘top Belarus 34
ten’ outbound markets (see Fig 4.5). Uzbekistan 35
Hong Kong 35
Whereas between 2002 and 2009 China Ukraine 36
was the source of one-third of global Japan 36
Iran 37
growth in outbound mobile students, its UK 38 India 296
contribution to future growth is forecast to Brazil 41
be much more limited. This is partly to do Mexico 41
Zimbabwe 43
with its slower tertiary enrolment growth Nepal 45
and partly down to a fall in its outbound Italy 45
Canada 48 South Korea 134
mobility ratio. India, however, is forecast
Indonesia 50
to be the main source of future growth
Russia 53 Germany 100
in outbound tertiary students (+71,000 Morocco 53
Turkey 84
between 2011 and 2020), followed by Saudi Arabia 54
Pakistan 57 Malaysia 82
Nigeria, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi
Vietnam 59 Nigeria 67
Arabia and Turkey (see Fig 4.6). US 63
France 67 Kazakhstan 67 000’s

Source: Oxford Economics

Fig 4.5: Global outbound mobile tertiary students by origin market (2020)

Going Global 2012 / 41

With the growth in outbound students from
Sri Lanka forecast to be similar to Brazil,
the inbound student mobility opportunity Japan
offered by South Asia is very clear, and Greece
Poland
mirrors the opportunity that has existed in
Romania
the past from South East Asia.
Ukraine
Singapore
Inbound mobility
Belarus
Forecasting the study destinations (i.e. Russia
inbound mobile tertiary students across Iran
all shortlisted markets) for international Italy
students is limited by data availability and Angola
the range of shortlisted countries. Whereas Zimbabwe
outbound mobile student forecasts are Iraq
based on tertiary enrolments within a Turkey
Saudi Arabia
single country and its outbound mobility
Pakistan
ratio, inbound mobile student forecasts
Nepal
essentially require the summation of Malaysia
outbound mobile student flows from Nigeria
all origin markets to the particular India
destination market in question. For some
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
of the shortlisted countries, information on
inbound mobile tertiary student flows is not 000’s
well recorded (for example India).
It has nonetheless been possible to produce Source: Oxford Economics
inbound tertiary student forecasts for the
major advanced economies and a limited Fig 4.6: Global outbound mobile tertiary students by origin market growth (2011–20)
number of emerging economies. While the
flows include shortlisted countries only, in
many cases this covers a sufficiently high
share of origin markets to be representative
of future flows.
% annual
By 2020, the distribution of destination 25
markets for inbound mobile tertiary students US Germany Forecast
is forecast to continue to be led by a similar UK Canada
set of countries – US, UK, Australia, Canada, France Japan
Germany, France and Japan. Canada’s 20
Australia
jump up the rankings ahead of Germany
and France is noteworthy. However, in
terms of absolute tertiary student inbound 15
growth between 2011 and 2020, Australia is
forecast to lead the way with growth of just
over 50,000 inbound mobile students from
the shortlisted countries, followed by the 10
UK, US and Canada (see Fig 4.8).
While this evidence suggests a continued
dominance of Anglo-Saxon economies 5
by 2020 in the inbound market, there is a
growing body of hard, factual and anecdotal
in-country evidence suggesting a shift
in the balance from the English-speaking 0
countries to the East. 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
If more complete data were available,
it could be seen that countries such as Source: OECD, Oxford Economics
China, Singapore, Malaysia and an Arab
Fig 4.7: Selected country tertiary inbound mobility ratio

42 / Going Global 2012

 4. The global higher education sector to 2020

state were the fastest growing markets for

international students. This would reflect
Japan
their investments in higher education, their Germany
education hub ambitions and international France
student targets that are national responses Switzerland
to a combination of excess higher education Malaysia
Ireland
capacity and less favourable demographics. Mexico
It is difficult to say precisely the extent to Indonesia
Poland
which this inbound growth would displace South Africa
future tertiary student flows to traditional Thailand
destinations such as the UK, US, Australia Turkey
and Canada. This is because there is a lack Russia
India
of information on origin markets of inbound South Korea
flows to many emerging economies. So Brazil
it is difficult to assess whether China, for Spain
example, is competing with the UK, Australia Canada
United States
and the US among others for the same United Kingdom
markets. The most likely answer is that there Australia
would be some displacement; in which case
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
the forecasts in this report are potentially
over-optimistic on inbound student inflows 000’s
to traditional markets and do not fully
capture the shifting inbound pull from west
to east. Source: Oxford Economics *includes shortlisted country origin markets only

Japan and Germany are forecast to have Fig 4.8: Global inbound mobile tertiary students by destination market growth (2011–20)
fewer inbound students in 2020 compared
to today. This reflects forecast outbound of outbound mobile students from key from China and a decline of approximately
growth in their key origin markets and their origin markets and the destination patterns 15,000 from European countries. Of course
change in market shares of these countries. of students from these origin markets. the key challenge with regard to the UK
For example, Japan is forecast to attract inbound tertiary student outlook is student
Origin market destinations are forecast on
fewer Chinese students compared to today, visa reform which could/will provide a
the basis of current patterns and trends,
despite total Chinese outbound students barrier against realising this inbound
plus forecast trends in bilateral trade. For
growing. Germany is vulnerable to declining student mobility opportunity, leading to an
European origin markets to the UK, there is
demographic trends in countries such as overspill of demand to rival markets such
also a specific adjustment to account for the
Poland and the Ukraine. as Australia and Canada, and potentially
effect of the increase in tuition fees. This is
also to China, Malaysia and Singapore.
However, in the case of Germany, plus other not expected to impact significantly on non-
European countries such as Switzerland and European origin markets where overseas Australia’s growth in inbound tertiary
the Netherlands, inbound forecasts may students are already charged much higher students of 51,000 is largely forecast to
be underestimated since they do not fully fees in the UK than domestic students. come from China, India, Malaysia, Nepal
account for the emerging trend towards and Saudi Arabia, with only students from
While the forecast growth in inbound
postgraduate course provision in English. Singapore forecast to fall to any significant
tertiary students to the UK may be
Combined with changing fee environments degree. Unlike the UK, Australia is much
surprising given the impact of tuition
in key tertiary markets such as the UK, less exposed to any drop-off in mainland
fees on inbound students from Europe,
this may serve to increase intra-European European outbound students.
it is largely driven by the UK’s high and
student mobility over the next decade. This
expected growing market share of forecast For this study we consulted with a small
could possibly widen the attractiveness
fast-growing origin markets in 2009: India number of senior officials from highly
of these markets to fast-growing English-
(16 per cent), Nigeria (42 per cent), Malaysia internationalised UK universities. These
speaking emerging markets such as India
(22 per cent), Pakistan (26 per cent), individuals identified Canada and Australia
and Nigeria.
Saudi Arabia (15 per cent) and Sri Lanka as key rivals to the UK for inbound student
Inbound mobility ratios for the US, Japan, (18 per cent). The UK’s 28,000 growth in mobility – a fact evident from the strong
Germany and France are forecast to be inbound students between 2011 and 2020 inbound forecast for these two markets.
relatively flat over the next decade, but is expected to come from: India (20,000), Both of these countries are said to offer
rise for Australia, UK and Canada. The Nigeria (14,100), Pakistan (5,200), Malaysia liberal post-study employment regulations
change in inbound mobile student flows for (2,700), UAE (1,700) and Bangladesh (1,500), that the UK cannot currently match.
destination markets is driven by the volume more than offsetting a decline of 7,300

Going Global 2012 / 43

They also highlighted how existing • In terms of levels of flows in 2020, India to
cultural and geopolitical relationships the US is forecast to overtake China to the
restrict the UK’s prospects in key growth US as the largest bilateral tertiary student
markets: Brazilians, for example, will flow. Although China to the US will only fall
naturally look towards the US, while to second place. China to Australia and
Australia is thought to be more strongly Japan; South Korea to the US and India to
positioned in the Asian market. Given the UK are forecast to occupy
these factors, plus the student visa the remaining top six bilateral flows.
restriction factor, the inbound mobile • There may of course be other significant
student forecasts for the UK could, perhaps flows not recorded in the data, such
fairly, be considered over-optimistic. as inflows to China, Malaysia, Singapore
and Gulf States, which would feature
Bilateral tertiary mobile flows
very highly.
In terms of future major bilateral flows,
• Bilateral student flows within Europe
these are presented in Fig E6 (in Annex E).
may also shift in response to widening
A number of developments stand out:
tuition fee differentials, especially given
• Outbound mobile student flows from: the economic climate. While overall this
China to the US, Japan and the UK; Japan is unlikely to affect aggregate flows as it
to the US and Greece to the UK, are may simply shift bilateral patterns rather
forecast to fall most sharply in absolute than increase overall outbound mobility
terms. Markets with rising tuition fees ratios, there is likely to be a shift from
are also likely to see declines in inbound high to low tuition fee countries. That
student flows. said, increasing postgraduate provision
• In contrast outbound flows from: India to taught in English may provide additional
the UK; China to Australia; Nigeria to the stimulus for greater mobility to non-
UK; India to Australia and India to the US English speaking European countries.
are forecast to be the largest absolute
rises in bilateral flows.

44 / Going Global 2012

 4. The global higher education sector to 2020

Transnational education (TNE) A good case study of additional social and where many new projects are ongoing;
institutional barriers to TNE is provided a steady but increasingly significant rise in
Drivers and barriers by Pakistan. With a low but rapidly rising ‘South-South’ projects, both originating in
To identify future opportunities for TNE, tertiary enrolment base (from around and hosted by an emerging nation; and a
whether through joint or independent 100,000 students per year in 2000 to more trend towards niche specialism and single-
initiatives, a number of key drivers need than one million today), a large volume of discipline course provision, almost certainly
to be considered. These include the unmet student demand and close social driven by a desire to minimise financial and
total number (and growth rate) of tertiary and historical links with the UK, the country reputational risk.
enrolments, student mobility rates and a might be considered to offer significant
variety of practical barriers, from language opportunity for UK-delivered TNE. But low Strategic decisions
issues to the legal and political framework levels of proficiency in written English mean Future trends will in part reflect national
in the potential host country. The stage of that many prospective Pakistani students and institutional strategies. A number of
development in existing markets also needs would struggle, in practice, with a degree emerging market destinations have actively
to be considered – a country like Malaysia, course as delivered in the UK. Furthermore, sought to attract inward investment in the
for example, is a more mature TNE market rising domestic tertiary demand in Pakistan tertiary sector by branding themselves
than one such as Indonesia. is being absorbed in part by fast growth as education hubs or similar. The primary
in licensed private sector universities, purpose behind these initiatives is usually
In total volume terms, the leading countries whose quality and regulation is the subject to stimulate economic development
for recent growth in tertiary enrolments of some concern.21 This means that UK and business growth, with universities
(defined here as growth over the decade higher education institution entrants may rightly seen as key drivers of skills and
1999 to 2009, since this is the most risk engaging in a ‘race to the bottom’ by technological progress.
recent year for which data are available reducing quality standards and costs to
consistently), are largely the familiar In Malaysia, a development known as
compete in the local market.
players: China – growth of a remarkable ‘Iskandar EduCity’ has recently attracted
23.2 million students over the decade, from Programme types Newcastle University’s medical school,
6.5 million to 29.7 million; India – growth to be joined by an engineering campus
TNE covers a range of programme types.
of around 10 million students, to 19.1 from the University of Southampton
Recent survey evidence from the Institute
million; the US (growth of 5.4 million), Brazil in 2012. The UAE has established a
of International Education (IIE)22 suggests
(four million) and Russia (3.6 million), also number of separate projects, such as
that a majority of global institutions have
based in part on large total populations; Dubai’s Health Care City and Media City.
plans to expand their offering of joint and/
and other emerging economies such as Across the Gulf, Qatar Education City is
or double degree courses; the US, China,
Iran (2.1 million), Indonesia (two million), another major project actively seeking
India, France and Germany were among
Turkey (1.5 million), Ukraine (1.1 million), higher education investment from
the most desirable partner countries for
Malaysia, Pakistan and Nigeria (one million overseas, but to date it has focused on
survey respondents, and there is some
each), Vietnam (980,000) and Mexico attracting high quality US universities.
evidence that activity is rising in smaller,
and Bangladesh (880,000 each). less developed countries. At an institutional level, New York University
However, identification of TNE opportunities (NYU) has one of the most ambitious
To date, franchising and validations have
should include consideration of a range internationalisation strategies of any
been most popular in markets such as
of quality issues and practical barriers. university in the world. These have already
Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong. In
For example, there is a significant TNE delivered ‘study-abroad sites’ across six
future, it is known from our consultations
opportunity in countries such as Pakistan, continents, among which are Accra, Buenos
that institutions are looking at volume
Nigeria, Indonesia and Vietnam (and also Aires, London and Prague. Some 60 per
markets such as Indonesia and Vietnam,
a significant inbound student mobility cent of the institution’s students spend a
and attempting to overcome legal and
opportunity), but a combination of security semester abroad. In September 2010, NYU
institutional barriers in the largest emerging
issues, legislative barriers and the mixed opened a facility in Abu Dhabi. Future TNE
markets of China and India.
quality of written and statistical proficiency provision will be driven to a significant
among local students serve to limit these Three obvious global growth trends are extent by individual and organisational
at present. Security issues also provide a evident from the new data on international decisions to invest or commit to another
barrier to investment in countries such as branch campuses:23 a shift in host country country – one of several factors that cannot
Nigeria and Pakistan, while corruption is a emphasis from the Middle East to the Far easily be predicted.
concern in Vietnam. East, particularly China and Singapore,

21
Information from online article by Murtaza Haider (PhD), Associate Dean of research and graduate programs, Rogers School of Management, Toronto. Article
can be viewed at: www.dawn.com/2012/02/01/the-dos-and-donts-of-higher-education-abroad.html
22
IIE (2011), ‘Joint and Double Degree Programs in the Global Context’ (www.iie.org/Research-and-Publications/Publications-and-Reports/IIE-Bookstore/Joint-
Degree-Survey-Report-2011)
23
The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education (2012), ‘International branch campuses: data and developments’ (www.obhe.ac.uk/documents/view_
details?id=894)

Going Global 2012 / 45

International research
Country Total Research Total Growth in total
collaboration
articles collaboratively collaboratively
Academic research produced, 2010 produced produced articles,
(Scopus) articles, 2010 2000–2010
Opportunities for academic research (Scopus) (Scopus)
collaboration depend on a number
of interlinked factors and not simply US 502,804 143,048 78,000
rates of growth in the overall higher
education system, which may come China 320,800 47,093 39,547
from a very low base and be associated
with a mixed quality offering. UK 139,683 62,061 36,340

Recent research has confirmed that Germany 130,031 58,150 31,940

informal networks of acquaintance between
academics are often responsible for France 94,740 44,092 24,597
initiating joint research projects.24 This
Canada 77,694 34,675 21,721
places a premium on cultural and physical
links between people, cities and countries. Italy 73,562 30,175 18,519
In terms of recent growth in collaboratively
Australia 59,058 25,867 18,220
produced research, the US increase –
78,000 more collaborative articles in 2010 Spain 64,985 25,845 17,899
than 2000 – is the largest by volume of
any country. The rapid growth of research Netherlands 43,214 22,087 13,607
output in China means that even with a
relatively low and declining collaboration Japan 113,246 26,828 11,603
rate, it still makes second place on the
ranking, with almost 40,000 more jointly- Switzerland 30,866 19,208 11,294
produced articles in 2010 than in 2000
South Korea 55,546 14,359 10,710
(see Table 4.1).
The next fastest growth, in absolute India 71,975 12,567 9,002
terms, was seen in the UK, Germany,
Belgium 23,716 13,573 8,558
France, Canada, Italy, Australia, Spain, the
Netherlands, Japan and Switzerland. The Sweden 26,842 14,758 7,877
large absolute number of collaborative
articles these countries produce means Brazil 45,189 11,004 6,680
they are likely to continue to generate the
greatest number of new global collaboration Russia 36,053 10,589 2,093
opportunities to 2020.
Source: Scopus (Elsevier) data, extracted January 2012
In percentage terms, it is notable that
Table 4.1: Global growth (by volume) of collaboratively produced research articles (2000–10)
most major research-producing nations
were engaged in more than double the landscape to 2020, the top Chinese and Cyprus (20.9%). Of these countries,
international collaborations in 2010 than institutions for collaboratively produced Malaysia (13,000 articles in 2010), Iran
they were ten years previously – but in research are presented in Table 4.2. (25,000) and Romania (10,000) have by
China, the figure is five times greater. far the largest volumes of output, and
Though less developed as collaboration
If these trends continued to 2020, then therefore the most significant critical mass
opportunities at present, there are some
China would match the US for the total likely to support an increasing number of
notable growth trends in total research
number of international collaborations collaboration opportunities in the future.
output among smaller, emerging nations.
it engaged with, despite a much lower
average rate of joint-working. As China Looking at the period 2006–10, compound
has the fastest-growing research annual growth rates in total articles
output in the world and will play a key produced were the highest, in descending
role in re-shaping the global research order, in Malaysia (35.4%), Luxembourg, Iran,
Bosnia, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Qatar

Royal Society (2011), ‘Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century’
24

(http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2011/4294976134.pdf)

46 / Going Global 2012

 4. The global higher education sector to 2020

2005–2009 (Scopus)
articles, 2005–2009

Normalised citation

(% within top decile

Global inst. ranking

output (all sectors)

produced articles,

impact (1 = global

for total research

Intl. collab. rate

in subject area)
Excellence rate
Total research

Total collab.
(% of total)
China rank

average)
(Scopus)
Organisation Sector
1 Chinese Academy of Sciences Government 144,269 21.5 31,018 0.9 11.3 1
2 Tsinghua University HE 41,197 18.6 7,663 0.8 6.6 11
3 Peking University HE 28,119 24.3 6,833 1.0 12.5 43
4 Zhejiang University HE 40,140 15.7 6,302 0.7 7.4 14
5 Shanghai Jiao Tong University HE 34,484 14.5 5,000 0.7 6.5 23
6 Fudan University HE 18,341 24.0 4,402 0.9 11.4 98
7 Sun Yat-Sen University HE 14,470 22.4 3,241 0.8 9.9 162
8 Nanjing University HE 15,247 20.3 3,095 0.9 11.3 147
9 Huazhong U. of Science and Tech. HE 26,035 11.5 2,994 0.5 3.7 50
10 Harbin Institute of Technology HE 27,509 10.4 2,861 0.6 3.1 45
11 Shandong University HE 15,520 16.9 2,623 0.7 6.4 143
12 Xi'an Jiaotong University HE 18,537 12.5 2,317 0.6 4.0 92
13 Wuhan University HE 18,284 12.3 2,249 0.6 6.2 99
14 Dalian University of Technology HE 15,919 12.8 2,038 0.7 4.9 133
15 Tongji University HE 16,263 12.4 2,017 0.6 3.6 126
16 Ministry of Education of PRC Government 15,254 13.2 2,014 0.8 5.3 146
17 Beijing Normal University HE 8,086 24.9 2,013 0.7 7.3 362
18 Jilin University HE 17,342 11.3 1,960 0.6 6.6 113
19 Southeast University, Nanjing HE 14,593 13.2 1,926 0.7 4.1 157
20 Sichuan University HE 17,730 10.4 1,844 0.6 5.3 108
21 Central South University HE 15,718 11.2 1,760 0.6 4.0 136
22 Nankai University HE 9,490 18.5 1,756 0.9 11.5 296
23 Tianjin University HE 16,666 9.9 1,650 0.5 4.0 121
24 South China University of Technology HE 13,385 11.9 1,593 0.6 3.8 190
25 BeiHang University HE 14,682 8.4 1,233 0.5 1.9 155
26 Northeastern University, China HE 12,340 9.9 1,222 0.5 1.9 210
27 U. of Electronic Science and Tech. HE 10,950 11.0 1,205 0.6 2.5 248
28 Shanghai University HE 8,653 13.7 1,185 0.7 5.3 334
29 Chongqing University HE 8,787 11.9 1,046 0.5 2.7 328
30 Beijing Jiaotong University HE 8,480 11.8 1,001 0.5 1.8 343
31 Hunan University HE 8,510 11.7 996 0.7 6.9 341
32 Beijing Institute of Technology HE 12,051 7.7 928 0.4 2.2 218
33 Northwestern Polytechnical University HE 12,780 6.8 869 0.4 1.7 200
34 U. of Science and Technology Beijing HE 9,556 9.0 860 0.5 2.2 294
35 Beijing U. of Posts and Telecoms HE 8,814 9.1 802 0.4 1.3 326
36 Nanjing U. of Aero/Astronautics HE 9,215 6.9 636 0.6 2.3 308
37 Xidian University HE 9,036 6.8 614 0.5 2.1 317
38 Wuhan University of Technology HE 8,105 7.2 584 0.4 2.8 358
39 China University of Petroleum HE 7,469 6.3 471 0.4 1.9 399
40 National U. of Defense Technology HE 9,762 4.8 469 0.4 1.2 282

Source: Adapted from SCImago Institutions Rankings (SIR), 2011, based on Scopus (Elsevier) data for 2005–2009

Table 4.2: Top Chinese research institutions (HE and government) for international collaboration (2005–09) (Scopus data)

Going Global 2012 / 47

Business research
%
Opportunities for commercial
35
engagement will continue to grow, and
are likely to be greatest in technology Average global market share
of PCT filings, 2007–2011
and research-intensive nations 25 Contribution to total global
adept at international working. growth in PCT filings, 2007–11
vs 2000–04 (averaged)
A core group of smaller, advanced
economies consistently feature at the top of 15
most population-adjusted global technology
rankings, including on key measures such
5
as research and development (R and D)
spending as a proportion of gross domestic
product (GDP). This group typically -5
includes the Nordic countries, Switzerland,

nd
ce
da

ly

Sw a
en

UK

US

s
nd

er
Singapore, the Netherlands and Israel. For
an
in

re
pa
Ita
an
na

ed

la
Ch

th
Ko
m

la
Ja

er
Fr
Ca

example, on INSEAD’s Global Innovation

O
er
er

itz
h
th
G

ut

Sw
Index 2011 – a comprehensive review of
Ne

So
national innovation performance – the top
ranked countries in 2011 were Switzerland, Source: World Intellectual Property Organisation, Statistics Database, extracted January 2012
Sweden and Singapore, with the US in
seventh place and the UK tenth. China Fig 4.9: Global market share and growth in average PCT (international) patent filings (2007–11
versus 2000–04)
currently ranks only 29th globally – though
it is the best performing lower income
country and its position has risen from 37th Besides confirming Japan as a central These are a useful proxy for the cross-
in the same index in 2008. player in technological development border flows of technology and innovation,
aimed at overseas commercial since they reflect technologies ready for
Looking at international patent filings application, this analysis also reveals production, not merely R and D spending.
(under the Patent Cooperation Treaty that China, despite starting from a long Ireland’s top ranking is driven in part
[PCT] system), a useful proxy for the way behind its more developed rivals, by the high share of foreign affiliates
internationalisation of technological is quickly growing its expertise. within its business base, but this group of
development in a particular country, economically successful countries is clearly
it is evident that global growth between Finally, countries with the highest rate of
adept at managing innovation internationally
the first and second halves of the ‘technology flows’ (defined as the average
– in part necessitated by their relatively
decade 2000–10 was driven by just a of technological payments and receipts)
small size.
few countries, including Japan, China, as a percentage of overall GDP, again
the US and South Korea25 (see Fig 4.9). include Ireland, the Netherlands, Finland,
Switzerland, Sweden and Israel.

To calculate this measure, we averaged total PCT filings in each country between 2000–04 and 2007–11, to adjust for annual volatility. We then calculated
25

each country’s individual contribution to the total global growth between the two averaged periods – which was around 48,000 applications, or 43 per cent.

48 / Going Global 2012

5. Summary of future higher education
opportunities for global engagement

Summary of future higher education opportunities for global engagement 50

Future research 50
Implications 51
5.1 Current and future opportunities 53
5.2 Potential barriers to maximising opportunities 56
5.3 Upside and downside risks to future opportunities 57
5. Summary of future higher education
opportunities for global engagement

Summary 80 per cent of countries’ research impact is internationalisation of higher education

explained through their collaboration rate, in these recipient countries has been
This study explores the growing
i.e. the higher the international research very much driven by student recruitment.
internationalisation of higher education
collaboration rate, the higher the impact of Data on credit mobility suggests a
globally. The areas explored are (i) at
the research output. In order to maximise shift in the balance from West to East.
national level (as opposed to institutional
opportunities in research collaboration, While international students at degree
level) and (ii) those lending themselves
these are the core opportunity groups level in Malaysia were 58,00026, the
to measurement. This study does
which should be considered: total international student population
not evaluate the internationalisation
(degree and credit mobility) accounted
of universities’ curricula and/or their
• high volume research leaders such for 87,000 students. Similarly with China:
internationalisation strategies.
as the US, China, the UK, Germany, the international students at degree level
France, Italy, Canada and Australia were only 71,700 in 2010, however, the
The shape of things to come studies
• high average citation impact leaders total student population (including short-
past and future trends that are expected
which, in addition to the US and UK, also term mobility students) was 265,000.27 In
to continue to shape the higher
include Switzerland, Netherlands and addition, there is increased international
education landscape. It details the
Denmark; there is a distinct niche sub- mobility within the region (Chien 2012).28
drivers of higher education demand,
group which provides opportunities in The highest rates are in East Asia where 42
international student mobility, TNE
smaller, technology-intensive countries per cent of the international students opt to
provision and the role of international
such as the Nordic countries, Switzerland study in another country in the region.
collaborations in academic research.
and Israel
However, the next decade is forecast to
One of the key findings of this research • producers of high research output growth
witness a significant slow down in the
is that at a global level, demographic and in key emerging markets, most notably
international student mobility growth. At
economic slow down will affect the growth China and Brazil, but also Malaysia, Iran,
the same time, there will be a substantial
of the tertiary education sector – it is Saudi Arabia, India and Qatar.
growth in international research and
expected to grow one per cent per annum
teaching collaborations. This indicates that
on average, down from five per cent per This research study also examines
internationalisation of higher education
annum in the previous decades. In absolute applications of academic research in
appears to be moving into a new stage,
terms the most significant growth will come commercial activities which are an under-
where international students will continue
from India (7.1 million), China (5.1 million), used resource for generating income. The
to play an important role, but research and
Brazil (2.6 million), Indonesia (2.3 million) main opportunities are collaborations with
joint delivery of education independently
and Nigeria (1.4 million). The growth in multinationals in the US, Europe, China,
or with overseas partners will have growing
international student mobility will follow India and Latin America. Countries with
prominence. International students enrolled
these patterns – as such a significant slow highest involvement with multinationals are
on UK degrees abroad outnumber the
down is expected. China, India, South Korea, Finland and Sweden. Increasingly, more
international students onshore. The global
Germany and Turkey will remain the top opportunities will be in niche research and
international research collaboration rate
countries of origin for international students. technology-intensive countries, e.g. Israel
increased from 25 per cent 15 years ago
However, the highest growth in absolute and Switzerland. Countries with higher
to over 35 per cent in 2010. While it is
terms in international students will come involvement of their tertiary sector in small
difficult to give an accurate estimate of
from India, Nigeria and Malaysia. and medium enterprise (SME) innovation
international collaborations in teaching and
collaborations include Finland, Belgium and
research in 2020, the trend is positive.
TNE is expected to see continued growth the UK. Another country group allowing
especially in East Asia and further expansion closer involvement of academic research is
Given the rising economic power of
of flexible modes of delivery mainly the one with high internationally-filed patent
emerging economies – with China, India,
through online learning. TNE developments applications such as Japan, US, South Korea
Brazil and Russia now in the top 10 largest
worldwide require further investigation and and, in volume terms, China and India.
economies (GDP measured by PPP) – they
an update of definitions which will allow
are playing more proactive roles in the
more comprehensive data capture.
Future research higher education community. De Wit argued
at the British Council Going Global
About one third of all the academic In conclusion, the empirical evidence Conference (2012)29 that the emerging
research produced globally is carried shows that international student flows economies and the higher education
out through international collaborations. over the past decades were mainly to the communities in other parts of the world are
The shape of things to come finds that advanced economies, suggesting that

26
Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia, see Project Atlas: www.iie.org/Services/Project-Atlas/Malaysia
27
China Scholarship Council, see Project Atlas: www.iie.org/Services/Project-Atlas/China
28
Chien, Chiao-Ling (2012), Opportunities for global engagement and the role of UNESCO-UIS, British Council Going Global Conference, London.
29
http://ihe.britishcouncil.org/going-global

50 / Going Global 2012

 5. Summary of future higher education opportunities for global engagement

altering the landscape of internationalisation globalisation of internationalisation identify schemes, most of which are at national
and that there is a shift from the ‘western eight priorities, the first of which is the ‘need level, will support this development.
concept’ of internationalisation. The concept to learn from other non-western national The British Council supports the
of internationalisation is certainly becoming and cultural contexts – to understand recommendation from the Royal Society33
wider, however, there is also a shift in the the full extent of internationalisation as a that national funding schemes should
debate from preoccupation with student phenomenon and what we can learn from accommodate international research
recruitment to broader collaborations in each other in order to benefit students, collaboration and, where appropriate,
teaching and research. The latter also employers and nations.’ supranational funding bodies (in addition
became a focal point in the debate at to EU funding schemes) may be needed
Going Global 2012 on ‘re-thinking Drawing on the discussion above, these to support research addressing global
internationalisation’, initiated by the are some of the areas that need a further problems (similar to the Belmont
International Association of Universities, exploration: forum)34. In addition, systematic data
where ethical considerations of the on trends and patterns in international
consequences of internationalisation 1 The growing variety of TNE provision academic research collaborations are
were discussed.30 globally needs further research in order needed in order to remove barriers
to arrive at rigorous analysis and and create supporting environments.
The concept of equality between forecasts. The current definitions used to
3 Drawing on the increasing inter-
international partners is also noted by describe TNE no longer capture fully TNE
connectedness and interactions among
establishment of the first Sino-Foreign activities of higher education institutions.
education systems globally, further
University, which was set up in 2006 by the Incomplete definitions lead to incomplete
research is needed to better understand
University of Liverpool and Xi’an Jiaotong data sets on TNE. In addition, this is
the real impact of internationalisation on
University. A similar model was used with aggravated by lack of both nationally and
students (those studying home, abroad
the setting up of the New York University globally available data on TNE. Different
and those undertaking TNE programmes
Shanghai – an independent institution set countries’ national statistics, such as the
either at home or in another country),
up by the New York University and the East UK, Australia and Ireland, collect these
faculty staff, higher education institutions
China Normal University. data whilst other big players in TNE, such
and at country/region level.
as the US, do not. Given the growth
Given the projected growth in off-shore expected in TNE, systematic data
Implications
operations, the regulatory environments collection at national and pan-national
can be complex and restrictive. The largest level is required. UNESCO and OECD will Higher education leadership has not been
tertiary education countries in the world – be ideally placed to carry out this role. studied in this research and as such it is
China, India and Brazil – have perhaps the 2 The Royal Society study on Global difficult to judge whether existing models will
most restrictive regulatory frameworks for Knowledge Networks laid excellent accommodate the increasing exposure of
foreign providers. While some countries are foundations of what research into universities’ business to internationalisation
still cautious how much freedom foreign international research collaborations in terms of research and teaching. Many
education providers should be granted, should look into. Further bibliometric western institutions already have a high
the only way into a country is often in analysis is needed to establish the rate proportion of international students and staff.
partnership with a local institution, as is the of countries’ participation in bilateral, However, increasing education provision
case in Indonesia. Gore (2012)31 argues that trilateral and multilateral research outside the national borders and the growing
‘a foreign partner is often crucial to bridge collaboration and their respective growth internationalisation of research output
this learning gap.’ rates. The Royal Society suggests that may require adjustments in the institutions’
the higher the number of countries leadership in order to better respond to
Further research is needed to establish collaborating on a particular research, changes the next decade presents and
whether there is a paradigm shift the higher the respective citation impact. to allow greater flexibility when engaging
taking place in the Western concept of As such, there can be a speculative with student and academic faculties from a
internationalisation of education in the assumption that multilateral research wider range of countries. Some universities,
context of rapid evolutionary development collaborations will increase significantly including those that already have highly
in the higher education sector globally. in future. However, what is not clear is international student and academic bodies
Jones and De Wit32 (2012) in their paper on how much the current research funding and a high rate of international research

30
International Association of Universities (2012), ‘Affirming Academic Values in Internationalization of Higher Education: A Call for Action’, www.iau-aiu.net/sites/
all/files/Affirming_Academic_Values_in_Internationalization_of_Higher_Education.pdf
31
Gore, Tim (2012), Higher Education Across Borders: models of engagement and lessons from corporate strategy, The Observatory on Borderless Higher
Education Report, April. www.obhe.ac.uk/documents/view_details?id=895
32
Jones, E. and H. de Wit (2012), Globalization of internationalization: thematic and regional reflections on a traditional concept, mimeo.
33
Royal Society (2011), ‘Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century’ (http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_
Society_Content/policy/publications/2011/4294976134.pdf) page 9.
34
http://igfagcr.org/index.php/about-us

Going Global 2012 / 51

and teaching collaboration, already have Increased interconnectedness of the
appropriate structures. Others may require academic community and open access
more supportive environments. to data and research will foster greater
research collaborations among academics
The slow-down in international student globally. Funding schemes for collaborative
mobility will have implications for student research at all levels: institutional, national
recruitment departments. This deceleration and supranational level will have to
will vary across countries depending on accommodate and support this trend.
their demographic and economic outlook Increasingly, there will be multilateral
for the next decade. Some established co-operation bringing strengths from more
countries of origins for international than two to three countries - formats that
students such as China and South Korea have the highest impact.35
will see a decline in their outward mobility
(mainly affecting the US recruitment market); Applying research excellence in
whereas others such as India, Malaysia industry will require increased flexibility,
and Pakistan are set to grow (mainly entrepreneurship and presumably different
affecting student flows to Australia and UK). governance structures amongst the
Institutions’ recruitment strategies will have academic community.
to take into account these changes.
Most of the implications in this section
It is difficult to judge the impact of tuition were based primarily on conclusions drawn
fees changes across countries. Increased from empirical evidence on changing
postgraduate provision in English across international student mobility flows, TNE
many European countries may affect provision trends, international research
the market share of established English collaboration patterns and commercial
speaking destinations such as the UK and activities as an additional source of income.
US. Increasing intra-regional mobility (such As such, most of the observations are at
as in East Asia) may affect traditional host national level and their applicability will vary
countries attracting students from the from institution to institution.
respective regions.
The decade to 2020 is a decade of changes
Increasingly through TNE activities, higher and opportunities. Maintaining domestic and
education establishments may want to international relevance through teaching
tap into increasing mobility within certain and research will be a key preoccupation
regions (e.g. East Asia, as discussed earlier). for the tertiary sector in most countries.
It is difficult to establish the direction of
causal relationships, i.e. whether TNE has A summary of findings, current and future
contributed to this trend or vice versa. With opportunities for international engagement
improving access to tertiary education as well as barriers and risks are presented
in many countries, the quality assurance in tables 5.1–5.3 on pages 53–57.
requirements of both home and host
countries for TNE providers are becoming
much stricter. High quality education, the
student experience, as well as meeting
demand in niche subject areas, will be
deciding success factors.

Royal Society (2011), ‘Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century’ (http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_
35

Society_Content/policy/publications/2011/4294976134.pdf)

52 / Going Global 2012

 5. Summary of future higher education opportunities for global engagement

International Current opportunities Future opportunities

higher education
opportunity

• Largest outbound mobile student flows by • Largest outbound mobile student flows by
origin (2009): China (568k), India (211k), South origin (2020): China (585k), India (296k), South
Korea (127k), Germany (105k), Turkey (72k), France Korea (134k), Germany (100k), Turkey (84k),
(68k), Kazakhstan (67k), Russia (62k), Malaysia (58k). Malaysia (82k), Nigeria (67k).
• Fastest growing (absolute) outbound mobile • Fastest growing (absolute) outbound mobile
student flows (2002–09): China (386k) and India student flows (next decade): India (71k), Nigeria
(123k). Also Germany (48k), South Korea (44k), (30k), Malaysia (22k), Nepal (17k), Pakistan (17k),
Vietnam (43k), Saudi Arabia (40k), Russia (36k), Saudi Arabia (16k), Turkey (13k).
Nigeria (25k), Turkey (24k). • Largest inbound mobile student flows by
• Highest outbound student mobility ratios destination (2020): US (582k), UK (331k), Australia
(2009): Botswana (49%), Trinidad & Tobago (32%), (277k), Canada (176k), Germany (155k) – China,
Mauritius (29%), Zimbabwe (13%), Hong Kong Malaysia are also likely to feature here.
(13%), Angola (11%), Singapore (10%), Ireland (10%), • Fastest growing (absolute) inbound mobile
Morocco (10%), Sri Lanka (10%), UAE (7%) (though student flows (next decade): Australia (51k),
several of these are low-volume countries). UK (28k), US (27k), Canada (23k) – again China will
• Largest inbound mobile student flows by surely feature here.
destination (2009): US (661k), UK (369k), Australia • Major bilateral mobile student flows (2020):
(258k), Germany (257k), France (249k), Canada India to US (118k), China to US (101k), China to
(190k), Russia (136k) and Japan (132k). UNESCO Australia (93k), South Korea to US (81k), China to
figure for inbound mobile student flows to China Japan (64k), India to UK (59k) – flows to China and
in 2010 is 72k but estimate from Project ATLAS is possibly India also.
much higher at 265k (main student origin countries
are South Korea, Japan, US, Thailand and Vietnam). • Fastest growing (absolute) bilateral mobile
UNESCO figure for inbound mobile student flows to student flows (next decade): India to UK (20k),
Malaysia in 2009 is 58k but estimate from Project India to US (19k), China to Australia (17k), Nigeria
International
ATLAS is again higher at 87k. The variations are to UK (14k), India to Australia (11k) – flows to China
student mobility
mainly because of non-degree students in Project also, and possibly India also.
Atlas data. • Fastest declining (absolute) bilateral mobile
• Fastest growing (absolute) inbound mobile student flows (next decade): China to Japan
student flows (2004–09): Australia (91k), US (-14k), Japan to US (-8k), China to US (-8k), China to
(88k), UK (63k), Russia (60k), and Canada (57k). Also UK (-7k), Kazakhstan to Russia (-5k), Greece to UK
strong growth in inbound mobile student flows to (-4k) – the impact of China’s aggressive pursuit of
China, Malaysia and possibly other countries where international students could well lead to some well-
data are not well reported, e.g. in Gulf States. established bilateral flows declining.

• Highest inbound student mobility ratios

(2009): UAE (39%), New Zealand (26%), Australia
(22%), Singapore (20%), UK (15%), Switzerland
(15%), France (12%).
• Major bilateral mobile student flows (2009):
China to US (124k), India to US (102k), China to
Japan (79k), South Korea to US (74k), China to
Australia (70k), and China to UK (47k). Inbound flows
to China would also likely feature in this list.
• Fastest growing (absolute) bilateral mobile
student flows (2002–09): China to US (61k),
China to Australia (53k), China to Japan (38k), China
to South Korea (37k), India to US (35k), China to
Canada (34k), China to UK (30k), India to UK (28k),
South Korea to UK (25k). Inbound flows to China
would also likely feature in this list.

Table 5.1: Current and future opportunities

Going Global 2012 / 53

 International Current opportunities Future opportunities
higher education
opportunity

• Fastest declining (absolute) bilateral mobile

International
student flows (2002–09): Japan to US (-18k),
student mobility
Greece to UK (-13k), US to Australia (-6k), Singapore
(continued)
to Australia (-6k), Indonesia to Malaysia (-5k).

• Largest tertiary enrolment levels: China • Largest tertiary enrolment levels (2020): China
(29.6m), US (19.4m), India (19.1m), Russia (9.4m), (37.4m), India (27.8m), US (20.0m), Brazil (9.2m),
Brazil (6.1m), Indonesia (4.9m), Japan (3.9m), Iran Indonesia (7.7m), Russia (6.3m), Japan (3.8m), Turkey
(3.4m), South Korea (3.3m), Turkey (3.0m). (3.8m), Iran (3.8m), Nigeria (3.6m).
• Fastest growing (absolute) tertiary enrolment • Fastest growing (absolute) tertiary enrolment
growth (last decade): China (17.3m) and India growth (next decade): India (7.1m), China (5.1m),
(8.2m). Also US (3.2m), Brazil (2.5m), Iran (1.8m), Brazil (2.6m), Indonesia (2.3m), Nigeria (1.4m),
Size and growth
Indonesia (1.7m), Russia (1.4m), Turkey (1.3m), Philippines (0.7m), Bangladesh (0.7m), Turkey(0.7m),
of domestic
Vietnam (1.0m), Nigeria (0.8m), Bangladesh (0.7m), Ethiopia (0.6m) – growth in certain markets could
tertiary education
Pakistan (0.7m). be larger still if ambitious international student
systems
recruitment targets are met.
• Largest falls in outbound mobile students
(next decade): Japan (-10k), Greece (-10k), Poland
(-8k), Singapore (-6k), Russia (-6k), Germany (-2k) –
China is one to watch here given its demographic
outlook and ambitious domestic tertiary sector
expansion plans.

• China, South Asia, Middle East, South East Asia, • Dual and joint degrees: China, US, France,
Latin America, Turkey, Nigeria. India, Germany.
• Franchising and validation: Asia, Latin America,
TNE possibly Africa (Nigeria).
• Branch campuses: Far East, possibly Middle East
• Online: Gulf countries, Asia, possibly Scandinavia.

• Elite research and government-sponsored • Largest growth in research output: volume

institutions. growth to be driven by collaborations involving US
• Specifically for UK, Russell Group driving research and Chinese institutions.
volume. Opportunities for newer institutions in niche • Highest collaboration rates: research
areas of specialism. Main opportunities in major collaboration rates are higher in many smaller
Academic research-producing nations, as well as smaller, countries, such as Switzerland and Belgium
international research-intensive nations (e.g. Nordic countries, (50–70%); they are low and declining in
research Switzerland, Israel). China (around 15%). Overall opportunity for
collaboration collaboration depends on both the volume of
research and propensity to collaborate.
• Highest average citation impacts: Switzerland,
Netherlands, Denmark and US – collaborating with
these countries in theory should help to maintain
and increase research average citation impacts.

Table 5.1: Current and future opportunities (continued)

54 / Going Global 2012

 5. Summary of future higher education opportunities for global engagement

International Current opportunities Future opportunities

higher education
opportunity

• Three core opportunity groups: specifically

for UK, future growth in collaborations likely to
be with US and other established high volume
research leaders (Germany, France, Italy, Canada,
Academic
Australia) and high average citation impact leaders
international
(also Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark); niche
research
opportunities in smaller, technology-intensive
collaboration
countries such as the Nordic countries, Switzerland
(continued)
and Israel; plus a chance to tap into rapid research
output growth in key emerging markets, most
notably China but also Malaysia, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
India and Qatar.

• Large companies: growth in collaboration opportunities with multinationals; large US, European, Chinese,
Indian and Latin American companies; niche opportunities in research and technology-intensive countries
e.g. Israel, Switzerland, learn from approach in Nordic countries and the Netherlands. Opportunities in
countries with high tertiary sector-large firm innovation collaboration rates (e.g. Finland, Sweden) and
unexploited opportunities in countries with low tertiary sector-large firm innovation collaboration rates
(e.g. Brazil, UK, Spain, Italy).
Business
international • Smaller companies: further growth opportunities in SME collaboration rates for R and D, focused on niche,
research high-value technology areas and/or links into multinational supply chains. Opportunities in countries with high
collaboration tertiary sector-SME innovation collaboration rates (e.g. Finland, Belgium, UK) and unexploited opportunities in
countries with low tertiary sector-SME innovation collaboration rates (e.g. Brazil, Italy).
• Leading countries in internationally-filed patent application: Japan, US, South Korea and in volume
terms, China and India.
• Innovation: Ongoing promotion of open innovation models, with fluid collaboration between business and
the higher education sector.

Table 5.1: Current and future opportunities (continued)

Going Global 2012 / 55

 International higher Potential barriers
education opportunity

• Student visa restrictions/migration laws

• Post-graduation employment restrictions on mobile students in host countries
International student
mobility • Political relations
• Social and cultural norms (e.g. female students in some countries less likely to travel) –
this factor works the opposite way for TNE

• Host country legal education framework

• Political relations
• Corruption
• Security issues
TNE • Social and cultural norms (e.g. role of women)
• Student quality concerns (impact on institutional reputation)
• Language issues
• Compatibility of pre-tertiary education systems across countries, and entry requirements to
tertiary education

• Compatibility of research subject specialisms vs. demand, and compatibility of research

methodological frameworks
• Language
Academic international • Researcher visa restrictions/migration laws
research collaboration
• Lack of established relationships at individual researcher-to-researcher level
• Political relations
• Economic and fiscal climate, e.g. public funding of research

• Tertiary sector often focused on pure research, not commercial applications

Business international
• Large existing internal R and D spend by global companies (vertical integration)
research collaboration
• Institutional funding constraints can prohibit new commercial initiatives

Table 5.2: Potential barriers to maximising opportunities

56 / Going Global 2012

 5. Summary of future higher education opportunities for global engagement

International Upside risks () Downside risks ()

higher education
opportunity

• Significant catch-up potential in tertiary enrolment • Rapid expansion of tertiary education capacity in
rates even beyond 2020 – tertiary enrolment rates traditional outbound markets (contributing to falling
could rise faster than forecast. outbound mobility ratios).
• Continued strong economic growth and rising • Ambitious plans in traditional origin markets to
household incomes forecast for many emergers. attract inbound students (and reduce ‘net’ outflows)
• Continued globalisation and trade which is linked – threat to traditional inbound markets.
to student mobility, particularly as economies • Future excess tertiary capacity in certain countries,
rebalance. e.g. Japan, Germany, may shift greater attention to
• Rising gradient of skill demand across economies attracting inbound students.
– economies will need more tertiary level graduates. • Gap in teaching standards and institutional quality
International • Gap in teaching standards and disparities in falling (partly linked to emergers attracting overseas
student mobility institutional quality and reputations between main teaching staff) – countries such as Malaysia
origin and destination countries are still large. evolving to a new phase away from international
student mobility to TNE.
• English still the key language for global business
(important for current dominant inbound markets) • Challenging economic environment in certain
and increasing postgraduate provision taught in markets (particularly Europe), affecting household
English in Europe (this would be a threat for the UK). incomes.
• South Asia the new South East Asia. • China economy refocusing growth from exports to
domestic demand.
• Rising tuition fees in some markets – e.g. UK –
linked to fiscal austerity (although this could be an
opportunity for other markets).

• Significant catch-up potential in tertiary enrolment • Reversal in demographics – stabilisation of global

rates even beyond 2020 – tertiary enrolment rates 18–22 population following historic rise.
could rise faster than forecast. • Improvement in quality of domestic tertiary
• Rapid expansion of tertiary education ‘volume’ education capacity.
capacity in traditional outbound markets • High levels of competition e.g. between US, UK,
(contributing to falling outbound mobility ratios) Australia and Canada, and increasingly China,
– opposite direction of risk to downside risk for Malaysia, Singapore and the Gulf States.
international student mobility.
• Ambitious plans in traditional origin markets to
attract inbound students (and reduce ‘net’ outflows)
– threat to traditional inbound markets, but
opportunity for TNE.
TNE • Countries such as Malaysia evolving to a new phase
away from international student mobility to TNE.
• Rising gradient of skill demand across economies
– economies will need more tertiary level graduates.
• Technology advancements and rising internet
penetration (support distance learning).
• Continued globalisation and cross-cultural
awareness.
• Gap in teaching standards and disparities in
institutional quality and reputations between main
origin and destination countries are still large –
TNE can help to address quality issues.

Table 5.3: Upside and downside risks to future opportunities

Going Global 2012 / 57

 International Upside risks () Downside risks ()
higher education
opportunity

• Continued globalisation and trade. • Equalisation of research capacity and specialisms

• Economies moving up the value chain – need to across nations, e.g. China increasingly confident in
Academic its R and D capacity.
undertake more R and D.
international
• Growth in formal institutional partnerships. • Reduction on public research funding linked to
research
fiscal austerity.
collaboration • Some markets still leaders in collaborative research
specialism areas so will be in high demand. • High levels of competition – e.g. between US, UK,
Germany, China, India.

• Continued globalisation and trade. • Tertiary sector incentivised to focus on pure

• Economies moving up the value chain – need to research and routine citation impacts.
Business undertake more R and D.
international
research • Growth in financial incentives for tertiary-business
collaboration collaboration.
• Growth in global popularity of open
innovation models.

Table 5.3: Upside and downside risks to future opportunities (continued)

58 / Going Global 2012

Annexes

Annex A: International student mobility ratio forecasts 60

Annex B: Additional evidence on transnational education (TNE) 62
Annex C: Future higher education opportunities for global engagement –
world region analysis 65
Annex D: International higher education definitions 69
Annex E: Supplementary charts and graphs 70
Annex A: International student
mobility ratio forecasts

International student mobility

ratio forecasts

Tertiary outbound mobility ratio % Tertiary inbound mobility ratio %*

2009 2020 pp change 2009 2020 pp change

Angola 10.8% 7.8% -3.1 - - -

Australia 0.8% 0.9% 0.1 17.9% 24.0% 6.2

Bangladesh 1.2% 1.0% -0.1 - - -

Belarus 4.8% 6.1% 1.2 - - -

Botswana 48.6% 45.5% -3.0 - - -

Brazil 0.4% 0.4% -0.1 0.1% 0.2% 0.1

Canada 3.4% 3.6% 0.2 8.8% 12.7% 3.9

China 1.7% 1.4% -0.3 - - -

Colombia 1.3% 1.1% -0.2 - - -

Egypt 0.4% 0.6% 0.2 - - -

Ethiopia 1.5% 0.6% -0.9 - - -

France 2.3% 2.3% 0.0 5.6% 5.4% -0.2

Germany 4.3% 5.1% 0.8 7.2% 7.9% 0.7

Ghana 3.7% 2.7% -1.0 - - -

Greece 5.1% 4.2% -0.9 - - -

Hong Kong 12.9% 11.7% -1.1 - - -

India 1.0% 1.0% 0.0 - - -

Indonesia 0.7% 0.5% -0.1 - - -

Iran 0.9% 0.7% -0.2 - - -

Iraq 1.3% 1.6% 0.3 - - -

Ireland 9.8% 9.3% -0.5 6.2% 6.8% 0.7

Israel 3.8% 3.7% -0.1 - - -

Italy 2.0% 1.8% -0.2 1.6% 1.9% 0.2

Japan 1.2% 0.9% -0.3 3.2% 2.9% -0.3

Jordan 3.8% 3.0% -0.8 - - -

Kazakhstan 5.4% 6.6% 1.1 - - -

Kenya 7.9% 4.5% -3.5 - - -

Malaysia 6.9% 6.6% -0.3 - - -

Mauritius 28.6% 27.6% -1.0 - - -

Mexico 1.0% 1.0% 0.0 - - -

60 / Going Global 2012

 Annexes

Tertiary outbound mobility ratio % Tertiary inbound mobility ratio %*

2009 2020 pp change 2009 2020 pp change

Morocco 9.9% 7.1% -2.7 - - -

Nepal 9.5% 9.3% -0.2 - - -

Nigeria 2.0% 2.1% 0.1 - - -

Pakistan 2.8% 2.9% 0.1 - - -

Philippines 0.4% 0.5% 0.2 - - -

Poland 1.5% 1.8% 0.2 0.5% 0.9% 0.4

Romania 2.2% 1.9% -0.3 - - -

Russia 0.5% 0.6% 0.1 - - -

Saudi Arabia 3.9% 4.7% 0.8 - - -

Singapore 9.9% 5.4% -4.4 - - -

South Africa 0.7% 0.8% 0.1 - - -

South Korea 3.9% 4.5% 0.6 - - -

Spain 1.2% 1.1% -0.1 2.7% 3.6% 1.0

Sri Lanka 9.7% 9.4% -0.3 - - -

Switzerland 4.6% 4.0% -0.6 14.6% 13.2% -1.4

Thailand 1.0% 1.0% 0.0 - - -

Trinidad and Tobago 32.4% 32.9% 0.5 - - -

Turkey 1.6% 1.4% -0.1 - - -

UAE 7.4% 8.2% 0.8 - - -

UK 0.9% 1.2% 0.3 12.0% 15.0% 3.0

Ukraine 1.2% 1.5% 0.3 - - -

US 0.3% 0.3% 0.0 3.0% 2.9% -0.1

Uzbekistan 9.4% 6.3% -3.0 - - -

Venezuela 0.6% 0.5% -0.1 - - -

Vietnam 2.4% 3.0% 0.6 - - -

Zimbabwe 13.3% 12.3% -1.1 - -

Source: OECD, UNESCO, Oxford Economics Note: *includes shortlisted countries only

Table A1: Tertiary outbound and inbound mobility ratios by origin and destination market (2009 and 2020)

Going Global 2012 / 61

Annex B: Additional evidence on
transnational education (TNE)

Joint and double degree

Global Country Keenest prospective partners Rank of
programmes
desirability (from top six survey responding desirability
• A 2011 survey of joint and double rank countries) for UK HEIs
degree programmes36 in 245 Higher
Education Institutes (HEIs) across 1 China Australia, UK, US (all 1st) 1
28 countries, administered by the
Institute of International Education 2 US France, Germany, Italy (all 1st) 4
(IIE), sheds light on the prevalence
3 France Germany, Italy (both 2nd)
of such initiatives around the world.
(It does not, however, claim to be 4 India UK, US (both 2nd) 2
exactly representative of the full global
picture.) The survey revealed that: 5 Germany Australia (2nd), UK (3rd) 3
1 Globally, most joint or double degree
programmes tend to be at the master’s 6 Spain Italy (3rd)
level (53 per cent), with the exception of
7 UK Germany (4th)
Australia (where the majority are at
doctoral level) and the US (where the 8 Brazil US (4th)
majority are undergraduate courses).
The most popular subject areas were 9 Canada
business, management and engineering.
10 Australia UK, Germany (5th) 5
2 The top five existing partner countries for
global HEIs responding to the survey 11 Russia
were France, China, Spain, Germany and
the US, with the UK in seventh place 12 Italy
behind Italy. Other countries mentioned
as existing partners, though to a lesser 13 Turkey US (3rd)
extent, included Poland, Sweden, Russia,
14 Japan
Mexico, South Korea, Belgium, India,
Portugal and Turkey. 15 Mexico
3 Institutions in France, Germany and Italy
tended to have launched joint or double 16 Chile
degree programmes in the 1990s, while
the UK and Australia had started more 17 South Korea US (5th)
recently. For UK institutions, the top 18 Netherlands
reasons for selecting partner institutions
were strategic decisions (91 per cent), 19 Argentina Italy (5th)
existing contacts among faculty (64 per
cent) and existing links for exchange 20 Singapore
programmes (61 per cent).
Source: Survey of 245 institutions in 18 countries by the Institute for International Education,
4 Almost all institutions reported plans to January–April 2011
develop more joint or double degree
programmes in the future. The top five Table B1: Most desirable countries for future joint
desired partner countries for future and double degree programme partnerships (2011)
collaboration were China, the US, France,
India and Germany, with China being the
primary target of the UK, US and Australia,
overseas partners (it was in fact the survey, rated the UK in the top five most
and the US being the main focus of
second keenest country to pursue this desirable programme partners. (A key
Germany, France and Italy.37
objective) that is perhaps not quite question not answered by the research
• The survey hints at a potential future matched by other countries’ enthusiasm is of course the future partnership
challenge for the UK in the form of to partner with it. Only Germany, in fact, preferences of large emerging education
an enthusiasm to develop more joint of the top six countries responding to the markets such as China, Brazil and India).
and double degree programmes with

36
Defined as programmes involving a jointly developed curriculum and physical study at two (or more) partner HEIs in different countries, the only difference
being the issue of a single degree certificate (joint degree) or separate certificates for each institution (dual/double degree) upon graduation.
37
Institute for International Education, ‘Joint and Double Degree Programs in the Global Context: Report on an International Survey’, September 2011.

62 / Going Global 2012

 Annexes

International branch campuses 40

• Data on international branch campuses

35
(IBCs), collected in late 2011 by the

Number of international branch

Observatory on Borderless Higher
Education – and tightly defined to 30
Non-UK institutions
exclude partnership arrangements that campuses, 2011–12
UK institutions
do not involve physical infrastructure 25
used by the source institution – show
that the campus approach is growing 20
in popularity. Globally, some 200 now
exist around the world, serving around
120,000 students, with 37 more set to 15
open by 2013. The UK is a leading source
country, with 25 campuses operational 10
in late 2011 (a figure which has doubled
in two years), and at least eight more in 5
the pipeline. Overall, the UAE remains
the most popular host country (with 37
0
campuses), and the US by far the most
E

ar

ia

da
UK
popular source (responsible for 78

iu
or

in

di
UA

n
s
at

na
Ko
ay

rit
Ch

In
ap

campuses worldwide).

Ca
au
al

ng
ng

Ho
Si

• Three obvious global growth trends are

evident from the new data:
1 A shift in host country emphasis from the Source: Observatory on Borderless higher Education, January 2012
Middle East to the Far East, particularly
Fig B1: Top host countries for international branch campuses (2011–12)
China and Singapore, where many new
projects are still ongoing.
• The University of Nottingham is the
2 A steady but increasingly significant rise
UK leader on IBCs in terms of student
in ‘South-South’ projects, both originating
numbers: its campuses in Ningbo, China,
in and hosted by an emerging nation.
and Semenyih, Malaysia, both have well
3 A trend towards niche specialisms and over 3,000 students and are among
single-discipline course provision, almost the five largest overseas operations in
certainly driven by a desire to minimise the world. Manchester Business School,
financial and reputational risk. University College London (UCL) and
Middlesex University are other notable
• Despite these emerging trends, and players, with several smaller campuses
evidence of growing activity in a relatively each. Overall, the UK’s existing and
large and diverse range of new countries, currently planned IBCs are concentrated
in volume terms the spread of IBCs is quite heavily in the UAE, China, India
still very lopsided. Globally, a remarkable and Singapore, though single campuses
80% of overseas campuses originate have been established in less well-known
from institutions in just five countries (the locations such as Kazakhstan (UCL) and
US, France, the UK, India and Australia). Uzbekistan (Westminster). By subject,
Currently, China has only one (sited in business and management dominates
Ghana). In terms of hosting, the UK is sixth the offering, but more specialised
on the global ranking, behind Singapore, scientific provision is also evident, for
China, Qatar and Malaysia as well as the example in engineering and medicine.
clear leader, the UAE. Of the six IBCs
currently hosted in the UK, four involve
institutions from the US, while Malaysia
and Iran provide the others.

Going Global 2012 / 63

Case studies of UK-delivered
TNE programmes

Box B1: Going global – UK tertiary institutions investing overseas

• Nottingham: Nottingham University’s senior management is pleased with the growth of its Malaysian branch campus. In the past five
years, it has grown from 950 to 4,000 students, and the plan is to increase numbers by between 300 and 400 each year. Nottingham
aims to do this largely by introducing new subjects: almost half of current students are studying engineering, pharmacy or business.
Overall, some 40 per cent of Nottingham’s students in Malaysia are from outside the country. The market for students from India has
always been strong, with large numbers also applying from Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. There is also potential in the Middle
East, and applications from China and Vietnam remain strong. Nottingham’s Malaysian campus has the benefit that it can apply for
funding from more than one region – it is seen as both a UK and Asian institution. UK branch campuses rely almost entirely on tuition
fees, and Nottingham’s Malaysian campus is 98 per cent funded in this way.

Source: ‘British universities overseas: it’s about more than just a piece of paper’, The Guardian, 1 August 2011

• Manchester: Manchester Business School (MBS) has become the first UK institution to open a campus in the US, aiming to tap into
increasing demand for global education from American executives. Launched in Miami in late 2010, MBS is the first British institution
accredited to teach business in the US. The MBA programme, which initially took 30 students and aims to serve 600 by 2013, is
delivered in person by existing MBS faculty, and also incorporates a centre previously opened in Jamaica in 2000. Strong links are
being built with emerging markets in Latin America, but the aim of the Miami campus is primarily to fill a gap in the US market for
global MBA education, with no highly-rated business schools operating in Florida, and many top US schools further afield charging
$100,000 or more in course fees (compared to $30–60,000 at MBS). The school’s international expansion, which now covers eight
centres from Shanghai to Sao Paulo, was a key factor in turning a significant financial deficit into a £4 million annual surplus by 2010.

Source: Partly adapted from ‘Manchester hopes to make waves in Miami’, Financial Times, 6 September 2010

• Liverpool: University of Liverpool has demonstrated another successful model of TNE in China. In 2006, University of Liverpool and
Xi’an Jiaotong University established the first independent Sino-Foreign University: Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU). The
new university, which has its own degree awarding powers, recruits around 5,000 students.

Source: University of Liverpool

64 / Going Global 2012

Annex C: Future higher education
opportunities for global engagement – Annexes

world region analysis

Americas and Oceania

TNE 3,500
Change tertiary enrolments (2011–2020, 000’s)

'Volume' critical mass

proxy (size of circle) is
3,000 weighted average of
forecast outbound mobile Brazil
2,500 students and tertiary
enrolments in 2020
2,000

1,500

1,000 Colombia
US

Venezuela Mexico
500
Australia

-5 Canada 0 Trinidad
5 10 15
and Tobago
-500

-1,000
Outbound Mobility

Change in outbound mobile tertiary students (2011–2020, 000’s)

Source: Oxford Economics

International Education Opportunities – Outbound Mobile Students and TNE

Europe

TNE 1,500
Change tertiary enrolments (2011–2020, 000’s)

1,000
Turkey

Belarus Italy
500
Spain France
Romania
Greece

-20 -10 0 10 20
-500 Ireland UK
Poland Germany
-1,000

-1,500
'Volume' critical mass
-2,000 proxy (size of circle) is
Russia
weighted average of
-2,500 forecast outbound mobile
students and tertiary
enrolments in 2020
-3,000
Outbound Mobility

Change in outbound mobile tertiary students (2011–2020, 000’s)

Source: Oxford Economics

International Education Opportunities – Outbound Mobile Students and TNE

Going Global 2012 / 65

South Asia (excluding India)

TNE 800
Change tertiary enrolments (2011–2020, 000’s)

'Volume' critical mass

proxy (size of circle) is
700 Bangladesh weighted average of
forecast outbound mobile
students and tertiary
600
enrolments in 2020

500
Pakistan
400

300

200 Nepal

100 Sri Lanka

0
-10 10 20 30
-100
Outbound Mobility

Change in outbound mobile tertiary students (2011–2020, 000’s)

Source: Oxford Economics

International Education Opportunities – Outbound Mobile Students and TNE

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (excluding Russia)

TNE 400
Change tertiary enrolments (2011–2020, 000’s)

200
Uzbekistan

-10 -5 0 5 10
Kazakhstan
Belarus
-200

-400

-600
'Volume' critical mass
proxy (size of circle) is
weighted average of
-800 forecast outbound mobile
Ukraine
students and tertiary
enrolments in 2020
-1,000
Outbound Mobility

Change in outbound mobile tertiary students (2011–2020, 000’s)

Source: Oxford Economics

International Education Opportunities – Outbound Mobile Students and TNE

66 / Going Global 2012

 Annexes

East and South East Asia (excluding China)

TNE 3,000
Change tertiary enrolments (2011–2020, 000’s)

2,500 'Volume' critical mass

Indonesia
proxy (size of circle) is
weighted average of
2,000 forecast outbound mobile
students and tertiary
enrolments in 2020
1,500

1,000
Philippines

500 Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore

-10 0 10 Vietnam 20 30 40
Hong Kong
-500
South Korea
-1,000
Outbound Mobility

Change in outbound mobile tertiary students (2011–2020, 000’s)

Source: Oxford Economics

International Education Opportunities – Outbound Mobile Students and TNE

Middle East

TNE 180
Change tertiary enrolments (2011–2020, 000’s)

160
Saudi Arabia
140
Jordan

120

100
Israel

80
UAE 'Volume' critical mass
60 proxy (size of circle) is
weighted average of
40 forecast outbound mobile
students and tertiary
enrolments in 2020
20

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Outbound Mobility

Change in outbound mobile tertiary students (2011–2020, 000’s)

Source: Oxford Economics

International Education Opportunities – Outbound Mobile Students and TNE

Going Global 2012 / 67

Africa

TNE 1,800
Change tertiary enrolments (2011–2020, 000’s)

1,600
Nigeria
1,400
1,200
1,000
800 'Volume' critical mass
Ethiopia proxy (size of circle) is
600 weighted average of
South Africa forecast outbound mobile
400 Egypt students and tertiary
Kenya
Angola enrolments in 2020
Morocco
200
Zimbabwe

0
-20 -10 Botswana 10 20 30 40 50
-200 Ghana

-400
Outbound Mobility

Change in outbound mobile tertiary students (2011–2020, 000’s)

Source: Oxford Economics

International Education Opportunities – Outbound Mobile Students and TNE

68 / Going Global 2012

Annex D: International higher
education definitions Annexes

Distance learning Models of in-country delivery include: • Dual/joint award: The origin institution
and local partner provide programmes
• The term distance learning is used • Branch campus: The origin institution
leading to separate awards of both or all
differently depending on the context in creates a campus on another site. Staff
of them (dual award) or to a single award
which it is used. may be recruited locally or brought from
made jointly by both (joint award).
• Traditionally distance learning is used to the origin institution, but they are staff
of the provider. The origin institution is • Franchising: The origin institution
describe a learning experience which has
solely responsible for course delivery and licences a local institution to teach some
little or no face-to-face contact. Students
all academic matters. The costs involved or its entire course, so that students can
are able to study at their own pace
in the development and management of receive the award of the origin institution
and have limited interaction with other
branch campuses is prohibitive to the without attending the origin campus.
students or tutors on their course.
majority of institutions. The local institution is responsible
• In recent years, many distance learning for delivery of the course. The origin
programmes have developed to • Twinning programme: This is where the
institution makes the final award and has
incorporate face-to-face teaching origin institution has a local partner. The
overall responsibility for content, delivery,
support. These programmes are often local partner teaches part of the origin
assessment and quality assurance.
described as ‘supported distance institution’s course, using their own staff.
Students transfer to the origin institution’s • Validation: The course is developed
learning’. International students often
own campus to complete the course. and delivered by the local institution. The
see these programmes as ‘part-time
Typical combinations are: origin institution judges whether it is of
study’ rather than distance learning.
appropriate quality to lead to its award.
The teaching may be delivered by UK −− 1+2 – the first year of the
The origin institution determines the
academics travelling overseas to teach degree programme is delivered
extent to which it exerts direct control
part of the course; or through local overseas followed by two years
over quality assurance aspects.
tutors/academics; or a mix of the two. in the origin institution.
• A related term (not specific to in-country
−− 2+2 – foundation and first year-
delivery) is articulation.
degree is delivered overseas
In-country delivery/ collaborative • Articulation: A transfer arrangement
and the final two years of the
provision/ partnerships between an origin and local institution.
programme in the origin institution.
• In-country delivery is used to describe The origin institution agrees to
−− 3+0 – are delivered entirely
programmes where the delivery mode is recognise and grant specific credit
by the partner institution and
predominantly face-to-face (for the whole and advanced standing to applicants
do not involve any period of
of a course or part of it). from a named programme of study
study in the origin country.
• Teaching is usually delivered through pursued in the local institution.
−− The origin institution will provide the
a local partner institution or through a course material to the local partner,
branch campus. Most of the teaching will or agree to accept the partner’s
be delivered through locally based tutors. own course as an alternative.
The level of input into the programme and The local partner is responsible
delivery from origin institutions can vary. for course delivery. The origin
institution is responsible for
monitoring academic standards.

Going Global 2012 / 69

Annex E: Supplementary
charts and graphs

Vietnam 1,806
Spain 1,821 Other shortlisted
Countries 17,412
Nigeria 1,917
Italy 2,032 China 29,662
Venezuela 2,168
Poland 2,174
France 2,201

Germany 2,439
UK 2,447
Thailand 2,447
US 19,372
Egypt 2,616
Mexico 2,759
Philippines 2,761
Ukraine 2,831
Turkey 2,979
South Korea 3,255
Iran 3,411
India 19,058
Japan 3,908
Indonesia 4,948
Brazil 6,152 Russia 9,441 000’s

Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics

Fig E1: Global tertiary enrolments (2009)

Other shortlisted
Countries 403
China 568

Mexico 31
Romania 31
UK 32
Brazil 32
Nigeria 34
Saudi Arabia 34
Hong Kong 34
Greece 35 India 211
Pakistan 37
Indonesia 39
Uzbekistan 39
Poland 40
Iran 44 South Korea 127
Belarus 44
Ukraine 45
Canada 46 Germany 105
Japan 47 Turkey 72
Vietnam 50 France 68
Italy 54
Morocco 54 Kazakhstan 67
US 55 Russia 62
Malaysia 58 000’s

Source: UNESCO, OECD, Oxford Economics

Fig E2: Global outbound mobile tertiary students by origin market (2009)

70 / Going Global 2012

 Annexes

Uzbekistan
Zimbabwe
Japan
Botswana
Hong Kong
Venezuela
Israel
Mauritius
Australia
Trinidad and Tobago
Thailand
Ireland
Greece
Ghana
Switzerland
Jordan
UAE
Poland
Singapore
Ethiopia
South Africa
Canada
Iraq
Spain
Kenya
Indonesia
Philippines
Mexico
Egypt
Sri Lanka
Angola
Russia
Bangladesh
US
Romania
UK
Morocco
Iran
Colombia
Pakistan
Nepal
Brazil
France
Turkey
Malaysia
Nigeria
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia
Germany
South Korea
Italy
Vietnam
Kazakhstan
Belarus
India
China

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
000’s

Source: UNESCO, OECD, Oxford Economics

Fig E3: Global outbound mobile tertiary students by origin market growth (2008–09)

60%
China Forecast
India
Indonesia
50% Nigeria
Turkey
Pakistan
40% Saudi Arabia

30%

20%

10%

0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Year

Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics

Fig E4: Selected country gross tertiary enrolment ratio

Going Global 2012 / 71

 Brazil 14 Poland 13
Switzerland 33 Ireland13
Turkey 9
Italy 35

Spain 60
South Korea 61

Russia 101 US 582

Japan 112

France 119

Germany 155

UK 331
Canada 176

Australia 277 000’s

Source: Oxford Economics

Fig E5: Global inbound mobile tertiary students by destination market (2020)

India – Non-recorded
Germany – Austria
Malaysia – Australia
Canada – US
Turkey – Germany
China – France
Nigeria – UK
Zimbabwe – Non-recorded
Kazakhstan – Non-recorded
China – UK
India – Australia
China – Canada
China – Korea
India – UK
China – Japan
Korea – US
China – Non-recorded
China – Australia
China – US
India – US
0 25 50 75 100 125
000’s

Source: UNESCO, OECD, Oxford Economics

Fig E6: Top 20 global tertiary mobile student flows by origin and destination market (2020)

72 / Going Global 2012

 EDUCATION
INTELLIGENCE
EDUCATION INTELLIGENCE provides reliable and accurate research, forecasting, analysis and data to higher
education institutions. Market intelligence is essential in order to locate effective partnerships, create solid
collaborations and make strategic decisions regarding marketing and student recruitment. This service supports
clients in forming individual international strategies by offering appropriate and timely information on student
mobility flows, student decision-making and current national policies regarding higher education. Our extensive
network of resources allows us to produce robust and cutting-edge trends analysis that can help shape the
global debate in the education sector.

Our Products
STUDENT INSIGHT: why students decide to study overseas

• informs marketing strategies aimed at international students

• focuses recruitment efforts

• allows better understanding of international student bodies

COUNTRY BRIEFS: concise country profiles

• provides broad economic country-specific profile

• highlights major education trends

• creates better understanding of potential geographic focus

STUDENTS IN MOTION: where students go globally to study

• helps anticipate student mobility flows

• provides information on education-influencing economic factors

• analyses mobility trends

PARTNERSHIP ACCESS: where to locate fruitful collaborations

• provides “needs and wants” analysis as to where opportunities lie

• offers higher education profile of a given country

• outlines limitations of what domestic and overseas institutions can do

GLOBAL GAUGE: a comparison of international education activity

• delivers big picture analysis of global “openness”

• offers context when measuring a given country’s education profile

• provides empirical evidence of international trends regarding education

© 2012 British Council. All rights reserved. http://www.britishcouncil.org/ihe/educationintelligence

© British Council 2012 Brand and Design / C049a
The British Council creates international opportunities for the people
of the UK and other countries and builds trust between them worldwide.
A registered charity: 209131 (England and Wales) SC037733 (Scotland).