Competency Training and Certification Program in Electric Power Distribution System Engineering

Certificate in
Power System Modeling and Analysis

Training Course in

Power System Reliability

Analysis

U. P. NATIONAL ENGINEERING CENTER

NATIONAL ELECTRIFICATION ADMINISTRATION
Training Course in Power System Reliability Analysis 2

Course Outline

1. Reliability Models and Methods

2. Power System Reliability Indices and
Evaluation
3. Distribution System Reliability Evaluation
4. Generation System Reliability Evaluation
5. Economics of Power System Reliability

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Reliability Models and Methods

 The Reliability Function

 Availability
 System Reliability Networks

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The Reliability Function

A reliable piece of equipment or a System is
understood to be basically sound and give
trouble-free performance in a given
environment.

Reliability is the probability that an

equipment or system will perform
satisfactorily for at least a given period of
time when used under stated conditions.

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The Reliability Function

 Random Variable
A function defined on a sample space
 Operating time, Time-to-failure (hours)
 Distance covered (km)
 Cycles or on/off operations
 Number of revolutions
 Throughput volume (tons of raw materials)

Discrete Random Variable - Countable and Finite

Continuous Random Variable - Measured and Infinite

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The Reliability Function

 Random Variable Results of Tossing two dice

Sample Value of Sample Value of Sample Value of

Point R.V. Point R.V. Point R.V.
1,1 2 3,1 4 5,1 6
1,2 3 3,2 5 5,2 7
1,3 4 3,3 6 5,3 8
1,4 5 3,4 7 5,4 9
1,5 6 3,5 8 5,5 10
1,6 7 3,6 9 5,6 11
2,1 3 4,1 5 6,1 7
2,2 4 4,2 6 6,2 8
2,3 5 4,3 7 6,3 9
2,4 6 4,4 8 6,4 10
2,5 7 4,5 9 6,5 11
2,6 8 4,6 10 6,6 12

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The Reliability Function

 Probability Distribution
Value of Occur. Probablity 0.2
R.V. m(xi) p(xi)
0.15

Probability
2 1 1/36
0.1
3 2 2/36
0.05
4 3 3/36
0
5 4 4/36
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6 5 5/36
Random Variable y = x1 + x2
7 6 6/36
8 5 5/36
9 4 4/36  xi  1
 36 xi  2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
10 3 3/36

11 2 2/36 p  xi   
13  xi
12 1 1/36
 36 xi  8, 9, 10, 11, 12


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The Reliability Function

 Cumulative Distribution
Value of R.V. Cum. Probablity 1
F(xi)

Cum. Probability
0.8
<2 0 0.6
2 1/36 0.4
3 3/36 0.2

4 6/36 0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5 10/36
Random Variable y = x1 + x2
6 15/36
7 21/36
8 26/36

F  xi    p xi 
9 30/36
10 33/36
11 35/36 x  xi
12 36/36 = 1.0

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The Reliability Function

 For Continuous Random Variable
 Failure Density Function

f t  t – random variable
time-to-failure

 Cumulative Probability Function

F t    f  d
t

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The Reliability Function

The probability that a component will fail by the
time t can be defined by cumulative distribution
function of failure

PT  t   F t  t0
where t is a random variable denoting time-to-
failure.
Since success and failure are mutually exclusive,
then the Reliability Function can be defined by

Rt   1  F t  t0
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The Reliability Function

If the time to failure random variable t has a

density function f(t), then
t
F (t )   f ( )dt
0 f t 
 f(t)
Rt   1   f  d
t

0 F(t)
or

Rt    f  d
R(t)
t
t time

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The Reliability Function

Example
What is the probability that an equipment will not fail
in one year if its failure density function is found to

be exponential ( f t  e  t ) where  = 0.01failure/yr
The reliability function is
Rt   1   e  d
t

0
  t
 1 e 0|
 1  e  t  e 0
Rt   e  t  e  0.01 f / yr 1 yr  
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The Reliability Function

 Hazard Function (Failure Rate)
The propones of failure of a system or a component
is expressed by a the Hazard Function h(t).
In terms of the Hazard Function, the Failure Density
Function is
f t   ht e
 0t h  d

the Reliability Function in terms of Hazard Function

is t
 h  d
R t   e

0

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The Reliability Function

Example
What is the reliability of a component in one year if it
has constant hazard function of  = 0.01failure/yr
The reliability function is
t Note: the failure
  h  d
Rt   e 0 density function for
a constant hazard is
t
  d  t exponential
e 0
e
f t   ht e
 0t h  d

 e  0.01 f / yr 1 yr  0 d

t
 e
   e  t
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The Reliability Function

Component Failure Data
Item No. Time-to-Failure (hrs.) How do you
1 8 determine
2 20 the Failure
3 34
Density and
4 46
5 63
Hazard
6 86 Functions?
7 111
8 141
9 186
10 266

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The Reliability Function

Estimating Failure Density Function

Data Density Function (fd(t))

The data density function (also called empirical density
function) defined over the time interval ti is given by the
ratio of the number of failures occurring in the interval to
the size of the original population N, divided by the length of
the interval.

fd t   nti   nti  ti  N

for ti  t  ti  ti
ti
where n(t) is the number of survivor at any time t.

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The Reliability Function

Failure Time ti f(t)
Density 0–8 8 1 10
8
 0.0125

Function 8 – 20 12 1 10
12
 0.0084

f(t) 20 – 34 14 1 10
14
 0.0074
1 10
34 – 46 12  0.0084
12
1 10
measure of the 46 – 63 17 17
 0.0059

overall speed 63 – 86 23 1 10
 0.0043
23
at which
86 – 111 25 1 10
 0.0040
failures are 25
1 10
occurring. 111 – 141 30  0.0033
30
141 – 186 45 1 10
 0.0022
45
1 10
186 – 266 80  0.0013
80

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The Reliability Function

f(t) fractional failures/hr.x10-2 1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 100 200 300
Operating time, hr.

Failure Density Function from Component Failure Data

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The Reliability Function

Data Hazard Rate or Failure Rate [hd(t)]
The data hazard rate or failure rate over the time
interval ti is defined by the ratio of the number of
failures occurring in the time interval to the
number of survivors at the beginning of the time
interval, divided by the length of the time interval.

t   nti   nti  ti  nti 

hd for ti  t  ti  ti
ti

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The Reliability Function

Failure Time ti h(t)
Hazard 0–8 8 1 10
 0.0125
Function 8 – 20 12
8
19
 0.093
12
h(t) 20 – 34 14
18
 0.0096
14
17
34 – 46 12  0.0119
12
16
measure of the 46 – 63 17  0.0098
17
instantaneous 63 – 86 23 15
 0.0087
23
speed of 14
86 – 111 25  0.0100
failure 25
13
111 – 141 30 30
 0.0111
12
141 – 186 45 45
 0.0111
11
186 – 266 80 80
 0.0125

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The Reliability Function

1.4
1.2
h(t) failures/hr.x10-2

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 100 200 300
Operating time, hr.

Hazard Function from Component Failure Data

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The Reliability Function

Constant Hazard Model ht 

ht    

 h d   d  t

t t
t
0 0

f t   e  t
F t   1  e  t

Rt   e  t

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The Reliability f Function

t 
ht 



 e
t t
t 1 
a. Constant Hazard b. Exponential failure
density function
F t  Rt 

1 1
11 e
1e
t t
t 1  t 1 
c. Rising exponential d. Decaying exponential
distribution function reliability function
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The Reliability Function

Linearly Increasing Hazard Model

ht   Kt t 0

0 h d  0 K d  2 Kt
t t 1 2

1
 Kt 2
f t   Kte 2 ht 

1
 Kt 2
Rt   e 2 Kt

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The Reliability Function

ht  f t 
K slope K
K e
Kt

t t
1K
a. Linearly increasing b. Rayleigh density
hazard function
F t  Rt 
1 1 Initial slope  0
e1 2
1  e1 2

t t
1 K 1 K

c. Rayleigh distribution d. Rayleigh reliability

function function
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The Reliability Function

Linearly Decreasing Hazard
ht 
K 0  K 1t 0  t  K0 K1
ht  
K0
0 K 0 K 1  t  t0
K t  t0  t0  t  

t
K0 K1 t0

  1
t
0      2
K 0 K 1 d K 0 t K 1t
2
1 K 02
 h d  K 0  K 1 d  K0 dK 
t K 0 K1 t

0 0 0 1 2 K1

K 0  K 1 d  K0 dK  t K   t0 d  1 K t  t0 2

K 0 K1 t t
0 0 1 0 2
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The Reliability Function

Linearly Decreasing Hazard
 1 
 K 0 t  K 1t 2 
K0  K1t e  2 

0  t  K0 K1
f t  
0
1 K 02 2 K 0 K 1  t  t0
 K t  t0 
 1
K t  t0 e 2 K1
e 2
t0  t  

 1 
 K 0 t  K 1t 2 
 2 
e 0  t  K0 K1
Rt   0
K 0 K 1  t  t0
1K 02 2
 K t  t0  t0  t  
 1
2 K1 2
e e

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The Reliability Function

Weibull Hazard Model

ht   Kt m m  1
  1
t t
0   0  m 1
h d  Kt d  Kt m

m1
1 ht  K
 Kt m1
f t   Kt e
m3
m m 1 5 m2
4
1
 Kt m1 3 m1
Rt   e m 1 2 m  0.5
1 m0
m  0.5
t 1 2

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The Reliability Function

Weibull Hazard Model

f t  m  1
m  m 1 

ht  K K K
5 m3 5
m2
4 4
3 m1 3 m  0.5
2 2 m0
m  0.5 m  0.5
1 m0 1 m1
m2
m  0.5 m3
t 1 2  1 2

a. Hazard function b. Density function

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The Reliability Function

Weibull Hazard Model
F t  Rt 
m3 m2 m1
5 m  0.5 5
4 m0 4
m  0.5
3 3
2 2
m1 m  0.5
1 1 m2 m0
m3 m  0.5
 1 2  1 2
 K 1 m 1   K 1 m 1 
    t     t
 m  1    m  1  

c. Distribution function d. Reliability function

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The Reliability Function

The Bathtub Curve

a. Hazard Function

b. Failure Density Function

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The Reliability Function

Hazard Model for Different System

a. Mechanical b. Electrical c. Software

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The Reliability Function

Mean-Time-To-Failure
MTTF  Expected value of t
 E t    tf t dt
t

dF t  d 1  Rt 
0
dRt 
but f t    
dt dt dt
 tdR t  
dt    tdR t    Rt dt
t
MTTF   
0 dt 0 0

1 n
For a population of n components MTTF   ti
n i 1
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The Reliability Function

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT
of MERALCO Distribution Transformers*
Distribution Transformer Failures
• 1997: 996 DT Failures
• Average of three (3) DT Failures/day
• Lost Revenue during Downtime
• Additional Equipment Replacement Cost
• Lost of Customer Confidence
 Identify the Failure Mode of DTs
 Develop strategies to reduce DT failures
* R. R. del Mundo, et. al. (2000)
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The Reliability Function

METHODOLOGY: Reliability Engineering

(Weibull Analysis of Failure Data)
• Gather Equipment History (Failure Data)
• Classify DTs (Brand, Condition, KVA, Voltage)
• Develop Reliability Model
• Determine Failure Mode
• Recommend Solutions to Improve Reliability

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The Reliability Function

Parametric Model
• Shape Factor Failure Mode
• Characteristic Life
Shape Factor Hazard Function Failure Mode
<1 Decreasing Early
=1 Constant Random
>1 Increasing Wear-out

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The Reliability Function

MERALCO DTs (1989–1997)
Brand New Recond Rewind Convert Total
A 29,960 835 1,333 2,048 34,712
B 5,986 118 135 269 6,586
C 6,358 49 31 21 6,561
D 2,037 116 90 - 2,344
E - - - - 192
F - - - - 168
G - - - - 79
H - - - - 69
TOTAL 44,341 1,118 1,588 2,338 51,129
Note: Total Include Acquired DTs

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The Reliability Function

Reliability Analysis: All DTs
Interval Failures Survivors Hazard
200 1444 57095 0.0269
400 797 48852 0.0178
600 638 39997 0.0174
800 508 32802 0.0167
1000 475 27515 0.0189
1200 363 22129 0.0178
1400 295 18200 0.0178
1600 224 14690 0.0167
1800 159 11865 0.0151
2000 89 9010 0.0114
2200 98 6473 0.0177
2400 51 4479 0.015
2600 19 2254 0.0122
2800 2 821 0.0042
3000 0 127 0

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The Reliability Function

Reliability Analysis: All DTs
0.03

0.025
Weibull Shape = 0.84
0.02
Hazard

0.015

0.01
Failure Mode: EARLY FAILURE
0.005

Is it Manufacturing Defect?
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000

Time Interval
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The Reliability Function

Reliability Analysis: By Manufacturer
BRAND Size Shape Failure Mode
A 34712 0.84 Early Failure
B 6586 0.81 Early Failure
C 6561 0.86 Early Failure
D 2344 0.76 Early Failure
E 192 0.85 Early Failure
F 168 0.86 Early Failure
G 79 0.76 Early Failure
H 69 0.98 Early Failure

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The Reliability Function

Reliability Analysis:
By Manufacturer & Condition
BRAND New Reconditioned Rewinded Converted
Philec 1.11 1.23 1.12 1.4
Cooper 0.81 1.29 1.27 1.23
Howard 0.81 1.13 0.77 0.94
Moloney 0.67 1.11 1.49 -

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The Reliability Function

Reliability Analysis: By Voltage Rating
PRI SEC All DTs New DTs
20 7.62 0.75 -
20 120/240 0.79 0.94
20 139/277 1.14 1.1
20 DUAL 0.72 1.03
13.2 120/240 0.88 1.54
13.2 240/480 0.91 -
7.62 120/240 0.99 1.46
7.62 DUAL 0.77 -
4.8 120/240 0.87 1.61
3.6 120/240 0.78 1.17
2.4 120/240 1.15 -
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Training Course in Power System Reliability Analysis 43

The Reliability Function

Reliability Analysis: By KVA Rating (New DTs)
KVA Shape Failure Mode
10 1.3 Wear-out
15 1.25 Wear-out
25 0.92 Early
37.5 0.83 Early
50 0.73 Early
75 1.05 Random
100 1.04 Random
167 1.16 Random
250 1.11 Random
333 1.46 Wear-out
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The Reliability Function

MERALCO Distribution Transformer
Reliability Analysis: Recommendations
• Review Replacement Policies
- New or Repair
- In-house or Remanufacture
• Improve Transformer Load Management Program
- Predict Demand Accurately (TLMS)
• Consider Higher KVA Ratings
• Consider Surge Protection for 20 kV DTs
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Availability
For a system or equipment which is essentially in
continuous demand, there tends to be relatively
long periods of service or UP time followed by,
hopefully, much shorter periods of outage or
DOWN time. Thus, life process consists of
alternating UP and DOWN periods. The system,
therefore, can be represented by the two states -
- the UP state and the DOWN state.
State

m1 m2 m3 mn
UP

r1 r2 r3 rn
DOWN Time
Two State Model
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Availability
Alternatively, the two states can be visualized using
directed flow lines to show the possible transitions
between states
UP

Failure

Repair
DOWN

Transition State Diagram

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Availability
The availability of a system at time t (called
instantaneous or point availability) is defined as

At   PSystem is in UP state at time t 

It is common to assume Pr ob
that the system is in UP  At0 
state at time t = 0, so that At0 
A(0) = 1, A(t) will then A
decrease with t but
eventually stabilized at
some fixed value A (steady time
state availability) t0

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Availability
Availability of System with exponential
failure and maintenance Distribution
For an exponential failure distribution, hazard rate h(t)
=  and the mean-time-to-failure is
  t 1
MTTF   e dt  = mean uptime (m)
0 
Also, if maintenance distribution is exponential,
repair rate r(t) =  and the mean-time-to-repair is
 1 = mean repair time (r)
MTTR   e dt 
 μt
0 μ
The mean-time-between-failures is cycle time T
MTBF  MTTF  MTTR  m  r  T
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Availability
The cycle frequency
f 1 T
The availability, defined as the probability that the
system is operable (in UP state) at time t is
 e    t
At   
 
 m
At steady-state, t A  
 mr
m f
 
T 
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Availability
Example
What is the Availability and Unavailability of a
Distribution Substation if its average downtime every
year is 48 hours?

r  48 hours
m  8760  48  8712 hours
m  8712 
A    100% 
m  r  8760 

U  1 A 
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Availability
The unavailability, defined as the probability that the
system is inoperable (in DOWN state) at time t is
    t

e
U t   
 

At steady-state,

 r
U 
 mr
r f
 
T 

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Availability
Time Division
Use is required Use is not
required
Operable Inoperable

Operating Time = T0 Non-Operating Time

= TS
Down time Free time

Storage time
= TD = TF

Time TA
Adm.
Time TAR
Active Repair

Time TL
Logistic

Calendar Time
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Availability
Definitions of Time Divisions
Operating time is the time during which the system is
operating in a manner acceptable to the operator.
Although unsatisfactory operation (or failure) is
sometimes the result of the judgment of the
maintenance man.
Down time is the total time during which the system
is not in acceptable operating condition. Downtime
can, in turn, be subdivided into a number of
categories such as active repair time, logistic time
and administrative time.

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Availability
Active repair time is that portion of down time during
which one or more technicians are working on the
system to effect a repair. This time includes
preparation time, fault-location time, fault-correction
time final check-out time for the system, and perhaps
other subdivisions as required in special cases.
Logistic time is that portion of down time during
which repair is delayed solely because of the
necessity for waiting for a replacement part and other
subdivision of the system.

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Availability
Administrative time is that portion of down time not
included under active repair time and logistic time.
Free time is time during which operational use of the
system is not required. This time may or may not be
down time, depending on whether or not the system
is operable condition.
Storage time is time during which the system is
presumed to be in operable condition, but is being
held for emergency - i.e., as a spare.

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Availability
Availability definitions according to time
divisions considered
 Intrinsic or Inherent Availability

Ai t  
total operating time
total operating time  total active repair time

 Operational Availability

total operating time

A0 t  
total operating time  total corrective ma int enance downtime

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Availability
 Achieved Availability
total operating time
Ai t  
total operating time  total corrective and
preventive ma int enace time

 Use Availability
total operating time  total storage time
A0 t  
total operating time  total storage time  total corrective
ma int enance downtime

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System Reliability Networks

Series Reliability Model

R(x1) R(x2) R(x3) R(x4)

Series System
This arrangements represents a system whose
subsystems of components form a series network. If
any of the subsystem of component fails, the series
system experiences an overall system failure.
n
Rs   R xi 
i 1

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System Reliability Networks

Example:

Two non-identical cables in series are required to

feed a load from the distribution system. If the two
cables have constant failure rates 1 = 0.01
failure/year and 2 = 0.02 failure/year. Calculate the
reliability and the mean-time-to-failure for 1 year
period.

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System Reliability Networks

Parallel Reliability Model

This structure represents

R(x1) a system that will fail if
and only if all the units in
R(x2) the system fail.

R(x3)
n
Rs  1   1  R xi 
R(x4) i 1

Parallel Network
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System Reliability Networks

Example

Supposing two identical machines are operating in a

redundant configuration. If either of the machine fails,
the remaining machine can still operate at the full
system load. Assuming both machines to have
constant failure rates and failures are statistically
independent, calculate (a) the system reliability for
 = 0.0005 failure/hour, t = 400 hours (operating time)
and (b) the mean-time-to-failure (MTTF).

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System Reliability Networks

Standby Redundancy Model
R(x1)

R(x2)

R(x3)

R(x4)
This type of redundancy represents a distribution
with one operating and n units as standbys. Unlike a
parallel network where all units in the configuration
are active, the standby units are not active.
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System Reliability Networks

The system reliability of the (n+1) units, in which one
unit is operating and n units on the standby mission
until the operating unit fails, is given by

Rt   1  
n
t  e t
i

i 1 i!
The above equation is true if the following are true:
1. The switch arrangement is perfect.
2. The units are identical.
3. The units failure rate are constant.
4. The standby units are as good as new.
5. The unit failures are statistically independent.
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System Reliability Networks

In the case of (n+1) non-identical units whose failure
time density functions are different, the standby
redundant system failure density is given by
t yn y2

f t     ...  f  y  f  y
1 1 2 2  y1 ... f n 1 t  yn dy1dy2 ...dyn
y n y n1 y1  0

Consequently, the system reliability can be obtained

by integrating fs(t) over the interval [t,] as follows:

Rt    f ( t )dt
t

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System Reliability Networks

K-Out-of-n Reliability Model

R(x1) The system reliability for

k-out-of-n number of
R(x2) independent and identical
units is given by
R(x3) n
n i
Rs     R ( 1  R )n i
i k  i 

This is another form of redundancy. It is used where a

specified number of units must be good for the
system success.

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Power System Reliability Indices

and Evaluation
 Outages, Interruptions & Reliability Indes
 Utility-Oriented Reliability Indices
 Customer-Oriented Reliability Indices
 General Approach to Power System
Reliability Evaluation
 Historical
and Predictive Reliability
Assessment

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Outages, Interruptions and

Reliability Indices
 Outage (Component State)
Component is not available to perform its intended
function due to the event directly associated with
that component (IEEE-STD-346).
 Interruption (Customer State)
Loss of service to one or more consumers as a result of
one or more component outages (IEEE-STD-346).
 Types of Interruptions
(a) Momentary Interruption. Service restored by
switching operations (automatic or manual) within a
specified time (5 minutes per IEEE-STD-346).
(b) Sustained Interruption. An interruption not
classified as momentary
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Outages, Interruptions and

Reliability Indices
Properties of Reliability Index
Since reliability measures or indices are being
used as basis in planning and designs, they
should:
(a) be measurable from the historical records of
operating system;
(b) be calculable for a proposed system using data
available on the reliability performance of the
system components; and
(c) be responsive in a predictable and consistent
manner to differences in study alternatives.

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Outages, Interruptions and

Reliability Indices
Uses of Reliability Indices
1. The expected system reliability can be assessed
against minimum requirements or reliability
standards;
2. Comparison of alternative designs;
3. Detection of the weak spots and determination of
ways for their correction;
4. Allocation of the reliability investment among the
various components of the system; and
5. Integrated of costs and performance for a complete
appraisal before final design and implementation.
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Utility-Oriented
Reliability Indices
The utility-oriented reliability indices fall into
three basic classes:
1. Probability of System Failure
The long-term average proportion of total time
for which the system is in a state of failure,
i.e.,not performing satisfactory

 LOLP or LOLE for Generation system

 Availability for Transmission and Distribution
system

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Utility-oriented
Reliability Indices

2. Frequency and Duration of the System Failure

The long-term average frequency of the system
failures and the average duration of such
events.

3. Consequence of System Failure

• Expected Energy Not Supplied

• Expected Loss of Magnitude

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Customer-Oriented
Reliability Indices

The “size” (load) of the customers are not

considered
 System Average Interruption Frequency Index
 System Average Interruption Duration Index
 Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index
 Customer Average Interruption Duration Index

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General Approach to Power

System Reliability Evaluation

1 3
System
Failure Mathematical 5
Reliability
2
Failure Model
Application
Events
(Reliability Index)
4
Reliability Data

Steps in Evaluating Power System Reliability

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General Approach to Power

System Reliability Evaluation
Reliability evaluation techniques can be applied to
power system following five (5) basic steps.

STEP 1: Define the modes in which the system may fail.

STEP 2: Identify the events leading to such failure.
STEP 3: Model the system in terms of the aforementioned
events.
STEP 4: Determine the reliability parameters (e.g. failure rates,
frequency and duration) for each equipment of the
system.
STEP 5: Apply the model to the real world. In this case, evaluate
the reliability of a specific power system configuration.

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Historical and Predictive

Assessment
HISTORICAL SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION, INCIDENTS
PERFORMANCE
CUSTOMER, kVA MANAGEMENT
HISTORICAL
OPERATIONS
ASSESSMENT ENGINEERING
COMPONENT CUSTOMER INQUIRIES
POPULATION
COMPONENT
PERFORMANCE
PREDICTED SYSTEM
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE
DEFINITION PREDICTIVE
ASSESSMENT COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
AID TO DECISION-MAKING
PLANNING STUDIES

Conceptual Design of an Integrated Reliability Assessment Program

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Distribution System
Reliability Evaluation
 Distribution System Reliability Indices
 Historical
Reliability Performance
Assessment
 PredictiveReliability Performance
Assessment
 Substation Reliability Evaluation

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Distribution System Reliability

Indices
CUSTOMER-ORIENTED RELIABILITY INDICES
System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI)*
The average number of interruptions per customer served
during a period

Total number of customer interruptions

SAIFI 
Total number of customers served
System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI)
The average interruption duration per customer served during a
period
Sum of customer interruption duration
SAIDI 
Total number of customers served
Note: SAIFI for Sustained interruptions. MAIFI for Momentary Interruptions
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Distribution System Reliability

Indices
CUSTOMER-ORIENTED RELIABILITY INDICES
Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index
(CAIFI)
The average number of interruptions per customer interrupted
during the period
Total number of customer interruptions
CAIFI 
Total number of customers interrupted
Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI)
The average interruption duration of customers interrupted
during the period
Sum of customer interruption duration
CAIDI 
Total number of customers interrupted
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Distribution System Reliability

Indices
CUSTOMER-ORIENTED RELIABILITY INDICES
Average Service Availability Index (ASAI)
The ratio of the total number of customer hours that service
was available during a year to the total customer hours
demanded Customer hours of available service
ASAI 
Customer hours demanded
Average Service Unavailability Index (ASUI)
The ratio of the total number of customer hours that service
was not available during a year to the total customer hours
demanded
Customer hours of unavailable service
ASUI 
Customer hours demanded
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Distribution System Reliability

Indices
LOAD- AND ENERGY-ORIENTED RELIABILITY
INDICES
Average Load Interruption Index (ALII)
The average KW (KVA) of connected load interrupted per year
per unit of connected load served.
Total load interruption
ALII 
Total connecte d load
Average System Curtailment Index (ASCI)
Also known as the average energy not supplied (AENS). It is
the KWh of connected load interruption per customer served.
Total energy curtailment
ASCI 
Total number of customers served
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Distribution System Reliability

Indices
LOAD- AND ENERGY-ORIENTED RELIABILITY
INDICES
Average Customer Curtailment Index (ACCI)
The KWh of connected load interruption per affected customer
per year.

Total energy curtailment

ACCI 
Total number of customers affected

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Historical Reliability
Performance Assessment
Required Data:
1. Exposure Data
N - total number of customers served
P - period of observation
2. Interruption Data
Nc - number of customers interrupted on interruption i
d - duration of ith interruption, hours
d1
d3
Number of
customers N1 d2 N3
interrupted N2
Time
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Historical Reliability
Performance Assessment
S 1 2 3
A B C
Source

L1 L2 L3
SYSTEM LOAD DATA
Number of Average Load
Load Point
Customers Demand (KW)
L1 200 1000
L2 150 700
L3 100 400
INTERRUTION DATA
Number of
Interruption Load Point Average Load Duration of
Disconnected
Event i Affected Curtailed (KW) Interruption
Customers
1 L3 100 400 6 hours
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Historical Reliability
Performance Assessment
SAIFI 
 N C

100
N 200  150  100
 0.222222 interruption customer - yr

SAIDI 
 N d

100 6 
C

 N 200  150  100

 1.333333 hours customer - yr

CAIDI 
 N d 100 6 
 C

N 100 C

 6 hours custumer - interruption

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Historical Reliability
Performance Assessment
ASUI 
 N d  N SAIDI 1.333333
 
C

8760 8760 8760

 0.000152

ASAI  1  ASUI  1  0.000152

 0.999848

ASCI 
ENS

 L d  400 6 
a

N  N 200  150  100

 5.333333 KWh customer  yr
Note: ENS - Energy Not Supplied
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Historical Reliability
Performance Assessment
Outage & Interruption Reporting

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Affected hours
Historical 1
Date
01/08/04 3 1.5 Line Fault at C
Reliability 2* 02/06/04 All 4 Transmission
Performance 3
4*
02/14/04
03/15/04
5, 6
4, 5, 6
0.5
3
Line Fault at D
Pre-arranged
Assessment 5 04/01/04 6 1.5 Overload
6* 05/20/04 3, 4 3.5 Pre-arranged
7 05/30/04 1, 2, 3 0.5 Line Tripped
Outage & 8
9
06/12/04
07/04/04
1
5
2
1
Line fault
Line Overload
Interruption 10* 07/25/04 All 5 Transmission
Reporting 11 07/30/04 5 1 Line Fault
12* 08/15/04 4 2 Pre-arranged
13 09/08/04 2 1 Line Fault
*Not included in 14* 09/30/04 1, 2, 3 2.5 Pre-arranged
Distribution 15 10/25/04 3 1.5 Line Tripped
Reliability 16 11/10/04 2, 3 1.5 Line Fault at A
Performance 17* 11/27/04 3 2 Pre-arranged
Assessment 18* 12/14/04 3, 4, 5 3.5 Pre-arranged
19* 12/27/04 2, 3 3 Pre-arranged
20 12/28/04 1, 2, 3 0.075 Line Fault
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Historical Reliability
Performance Assessment
Outage & Interruption Reporting
Customer Count
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
January 900 800 600 850 500 300 3,950
February 905 796 600 855 497 303 3,956
March 904 801 604 854 496 308 3,967
April 908 806 606 859 501 310 3,990
May 912 804 608 862 509 315 4,010
June 914 810 611 864 507 318 4,024
July 917 815 614 866 512 324 4,048
August 915 815 620 872 519 325 4,066
September 924 821 622 876 521 328 4,092
October 928 824 626 881 526 331 4,116
November 930 826 630 886 530 334 4,136
December 934 829 635 894 538 332 4,162
Annual Average 916 812 615 868 513 319 4,043

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Historical Reliability
Performance Assessment
Outage & Interruption Reporting
Interruption Load Number of Duration Customer Frequency Duration Date
Number Points Customers (Hrs.) Hours (Inter/Cust.) (Hrs/Cust.)
Affected Affected Curtailed
1 3 600 1.5 900 0.1519 0.2278 01/08/04
3 5 497 0.5 248.5 0.1256 0.0628 02/14/04
6 303 0.5 151.5 0.0766 0.0383
5 6 310 1.5 465 0.0777 0.1165 04/01/04
7 1 912 0.5 456 0.2274 0.1137 05/30/04
2 804 0.5 402 0.2005 0.1002
3 608 0.5 304 0.1516 0.0758
8 1 914 2 1,828.00 0.2271 0.4543 06/12/04
9 5 512 1 512 0.1265 0.1265 07/04/04
11 5 512 1 512 0.1265 0.1265 07/30/04
13 2 821 1 821 0.2006 0.2006 09/08/04
15 3 626 1.5 939 0.1521 0.2281 10/25/04
16 2 826 1.5 1,239.00 0.1997 0.2996 11/10/04
3 630 1.5 945 0.1523 0.2285

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Training Course in Power System Reliability Analysis 90

Historical Reliability
Performance Assessment
Outage & Interruption Reporting
Calculate the Annual Reliability Performance of the
Distribution System (according to Phil. Distribution Code)

SAIFI 
 N C

N
SAIDI 
 N d C

N
MAIFI 
 N C

N
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Predictive Reliability
Performance Assessment
A λA, rA, UA A
Distribution
Source B Loads Source λB, rB, UB B Loads
System
C λC, rC, UC C

Required Data:
1. Component Reliability Data
λi - failure rate of component i
ri - mean repair time of component i
2. System Load Data
Ni - number of customers at point i
Li - the demand at point i

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Predictive Reliability
Performance Assessment
Load Point Reliability Equivalents
For series combinations: For parallel combinations:
1
1 2 S P

2
n
s = S i p = 12 (r1 + r2)
i=1

n r1 r2
S  ir i rp = __________
rs =
i=1
_________ r1 + r2
s

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Predictive Reliability
Performance Assessment
S 1 2 3
A B C
Source

L1 L2 L3
COMPONENT DATA
 r
Feeder
(f/year) (hours)
A 0.2 6
B 0.1 5
C 0.15 8
SYSTEM LOAD DATA
Number of Average Load
Load Point
Customers Demand (KW)
L1 200 1000
L2 150 700
L3 100 400
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Load Point Reliability Equivalents

 For L1 U 1  1r1
1   A r1  rA
 0.2 6 
 0.2 f yr  6 hrs
 1.2 hrs yr
 For L2  A rA  B rB
2   A   B r2  U 2  2 r2
 A  B
 0.2  0.1  0.3 5.666667 

0.2 6   0.15 
 0.3 f yr  1.7 hrs yr
0.2  0.1
 5.666667 hrs
 For L3  A rA  B rB  C rC
3   A  B  C r3  U 3  3 r3
 A  B  B  0.45 6.444444 
 0.2  0.1  0.15

0.26  0.15  0.158  2.9 hrs yr
 0.45 f yr
0.2  0.1  0.15
 6.444444 hrs
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Reliability Indices

SAIFI 
  N 0.2 200   0.3150   0.45 100 
 i i

N 200  150  100

i

 0.288889 interruption customer  yr

SAIDI 
 U N 1.2 200   1.7 150   2.9 100 
 i i

N 200  150  100

i

 1.744444 hours customer - yr

CAIDI 
 UN i i

SAIDI 1.744444

 N i i SAIFI 0.288889
 6.038462 hours customer - interruption

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ASUI 
 U N N i i i

SAIDI 1.744444

8760 8760 8760
 0.000199

ASAI  1  ASUI  1  0.000199

 0.999801

ASCI 
ENS

 L  U
a i i

1000 1.2   700 1.7   400 2.9 
 Ni N i 200  150  100
 7.888889 KWh customer - yr

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Predictive Reliability
Performance Assessment

1 2 3 4
Source
a b c d
A D

C
B
Typical radial distribution system

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SYSTEM RELIABILITY DATA

Component Length (km)  (f/yr) r (hrs)
1 2 0.2 4

Main
2 1 0.1 4
3 3 0.3 4
4 2 0.2 4
a 1 0.2 2
Lateral
b 3 0.6 2
c 2 0.4 2
d 1 0.2 2

SYSTEM LOAD DATA

Component No. of Customers Ave. Load Connected (KW)
A 1000 5000
B 800 4000
C 700 3000
D 500 2000

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RELIABILITY INDICES FOR THE SYSTEM

Load pt. A Load pt. B Load pt. C Load pt. D
U U U U
Component  r  r  r  r
(hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/
failure (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs)
yr) yr) yr) yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
Main

2 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4

3 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4
Lateral

b 0.6 2 1.2 0.6 2 1.2 0.6 2 1.2 0.6 2 1.2

c 0.4 2 0.8 0.4 2 0.8 0.4 2 0.8 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 0.2 2 0.4
Total 2.2 2.73 6.0 2.2 2.73 6.0 2.2 2.73 6.0 2.2 2.73 6.0

where : total    ; U total   U ; rtotal   U 

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SAIFI 
  N 2.2 1000   2.2 800   2.2 700   2.2 500 
 i i

N 1000  800  700  500

i

 2.2 int customer  yr

SAIDI 
 U N 6.0 1000   6.0 800   6.0 700   6.0 500 
 i i

N 1000  800  700  500

i

 6.0 hours customer - yr

CAIDI 
 UN i i

SAIDI 6.0

 N i i SAIFI 2.2
 2.727273 hours customer - interruption

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ASUI 
 U N N i i i

SAIDI

6.0
8760 8760 8760
 0.000685

ASAI  1  ASUI  1  0.000685

 0.999315

ASCI 
 L U ai i

N i


5000 6.0   4000 6.0   3000 6.0   2000 6.0 
1000  800  700  500
 28.0 KWh customer - yr

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Predictive Reliability
Performance Assessment
 Effect of lateral protection
1 2 3 4
Source

a b c d
A D

C
B

Typical radial distribution system with lateral protections

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RELIABILITY INDICES WITH LATERAL PROTECTION

Load pt. A Load pt. B Load pt. C Load pt. D
U U U U
Component  r  r  r  r
(hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/
failure (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs)
yr) yr) yr) yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
Main

2 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4

3 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4
Lateral

b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 3.6 3.6 1.4 3.14 4.4 1.2 3.33 4.0 1.0 3.6 3.6
where : total    ; U total   U ; rtotal   U 

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  N 1.0 1000   1.4 800   1.2 700   1.0 500 

SAIFI   i i

N i
1000  800  700  500
 1.153333 int customer  yr

SAIDI 
 U N 3.6 1000   4.4 800   4.0 700   3.6 500 
 i i

N i 1000  800  700  500

 3.906667 hours customer - yr

CAIDI 
 UN i i

SAIDI 3.906667

 N i i SAIFI 1.153333
 3.387283 hours customer - interruption

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ASUI 
 U N N i i i

SAIDI 3.906667

8760 8760 8760
 0.000446

ASAI  1  ASUI  1  0.000446

 0.999554

ASCI 
 L U ai i

N i


5000 3.6   4000 4.4   3000 4.0   2000 3.6 
1000  800  700  500
 18.266667 KWh customer - yr

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Predictive Reliability
Performance Assessment
 Effect of disconnects
1 2 3 4
Source

a b c d
A D

C
B
Typical radial distribution system reinforce with
lateral protections and disconnects
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RELIABILITY INDICES WITH LATERAL PROTECTION AND DISCONNECTS

Load pt. A Load pt. B Load pt. C Load pt. D
U U U U
Component  r  r  r  r
(hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/
failure (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs)
yr) yr) yr) yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
Main

2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4

3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4
Lateral

b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.89 2.65 1.2 2.75 3.3 1.0 3.6 3.6

where : total    ; U total   U ; rtotal   U 

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SAIFI 
  N 1.0 1000   1.4 800   1.2 700   1.0 500 
 i i

N i 1000  800  700  500

 1.153333 int customer  yr

SAIDI 
 U N 1.5 1000   2.65 800   3.3 700   3.6 500 
 i i

N i 1000  800  700  500

 2.576667 hours customer - yr

CAIDI 
 UN i i

SAIDI 2.576667

 N i i SAIFI 1.153333
 2.234105 hours customer - interruption

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ASUI 
 U N N i i i

SAIDI 2.576667

8760 8760 8760
 0.000294

ASAI  1  ASUI  1  0.000294

 0.999706

ASCI 
 L U ai i

N i


5000 1.5   4000 2.65   3000 3.3   2000 3.6 
1000  800  700  500
 11.733333 KWh customer - yr

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 Effect of protection failures

RELIABILITY INDICES IF THE FUSES OPERATE WITH PROBABILITY OF 0.9
Load pt. A Load pt. B Load pt. C Load pt. D
U U U U
Component  r  r  r  r
(hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/
failure (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs)
yr) yr) yr) yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
Main

2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4

3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01
Lateral

b 0.06 0.5 0.03 0.6 2 1.2 0.06 0.5 0.03 0.06 0.5 0.03
c 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.4 2 0.8 0.04 0.5 0.02
d 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.12 1.39 1.56 1.48 1.82 2.69 1.3 2.58 3.35 1.12 3.27 3.66

where : total    ; U total   U ; rtotal   U 

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 Effect of load transfer to alternative

supply
RELIABILITY INDICES WITH UNRESTRICTED LOAD TRANSFERS
Load pt. A Load pt. B Load pt. C Load pt. D
U U U U
Component  r  r  r  r
(hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/
failure (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs)
yr) yr) yr) yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1
Main

2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 0.5 0.05
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.15
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4
Lateral

b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.39 1.95 1.2 1.88 2.25 1.0 1.5 1.5
where : total    ; U total   U ; rtotal   U 
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 Effect of load transfer to alternative

supply
RELIABILITY INDICES WITH RESTRICTED LOAD TRANSFERS
Load pt. A Load pt. B Load pt. C Load pt. D
U U U U
Component  r  r  r  r
(hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/ (hrs/
failure (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs) (f/yr) (hrs)
yr) yr) yr) yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 1.9 0.38 0.2 1.9 0.38 0.2 1.9 0.38
Section

2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 1.9 0.19 0.1 1.9 0.19
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 1.9 0.57
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
Distributor

a 0.2 2 0.4
b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.59 2.23 1.2 2.23 2.67 1.0 2.3 2.3
where : total    ; U total   U ; rtotal   U 
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SUMMARY OF INDICES
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 Case 6
Load Point A
 (f/yr) 2.2 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.0 1.0
r (hrs) 2.73 3.6 1.5 1.39 1.5 1.5
U (hrs/yr) 6.0 3.6 1.5 1.56 1.5 1.5
Load Point B
 (f/yr) 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.48 1.4 1.4
r (hrs) 2.73 3.14 1.89 1.82 1.39 1.59
U (hrs/yr) 6.0 4.4 2.65 2.69 1.95 2.23
Load Point C
 (f/yr) 2.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2
r (hrs) 2.73 3.33 2.75 2.58 1.88 2.23
U (hrs/yr) 6.0 4 3.3 3.35 2.25 2.67
Load Point D
 (f/yr) 2.2 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.0 1.0
r (hrs) 2.73 3.6 3.6 3.27 1.5 2.34
U (hrs/yr) 6.0 3.6 3.6 3.66 1.5 2.34
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SUMMARY OF INDICES (cont.)

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 Case 6
Sytem Indices
SAIFI 2.2 1.15 1.15 1.26 1.15 1.15
SAIDI 6.0 3.91 2.58 2.63 1.80 2.11
CAIDI 2.73 3.39 2.23 2.09 1.56 1.83
ASAI 0.999315 0.999554 0.999706 0.999700 0.999795 0.999759
ASUI 0.000685 0.000446 0.000294 0.003000 0.000205 0.000241
ENS 84.0 54.8 35.2 35.9 25.1 29.1
ASCI 28.0 18.3 11.7 12.0 8.4 9.7
Case 1. Base case.
Case 2. As in Case 1, but with perfect fusing in the lateral distributors.
Case 3. As in Case 2, but with disconnects on the main feeders.
Case 4. As in Case 3, probability of successful lateral distributor fault clearing of 0.9.
Case 5. As in Case 3, but with an alternative supply.
Case 6. As in Case 5, probability of conditional load transfer of 0.6.

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Substation Reliability
Evaluation
Bus and Transformer Bank Schemes
Scheme 1:
Single breaker-single
Primary side bus (primary and
secondary side) Primary side

Scheme 2:
Single breaker-double Secondary side
Secondary side
bus (primary side) and
two single breaker-single
bus with bus tie breaker
(secondary side)

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Substation Reliability
Evaluation
Scheme 3:
Ring bus (primary
side) and two
Primary side
single breaker-
single bus with Primary side

bus tie breaker

(secondary side)

Scheme 4:
Breaker-and-a-
half bus (primary
Secondary side side) and two
single breaker- Secondary side

single bus with

bus tie breaker
(secondary side)
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System Reliability Networks

Substation Reliability Models
15c 29ct 2bus 4d1 2b1 p 2b2 3d2

Reliability Network Diagram of Single breaker-single bus scheme

(Scheme 1)

B1 B1 B3

B2 B3
B6 B3
B2 B6 B3
B7 B3
B7 B7
B3

29 111 B5 B8 B10 B11

B6 B7 B7 B4

17 B4
B6 B9 B9 B4
B8 B4
17

Reliability Network Diagram of Single breaker-double bus with

normally closed 115kV bus tie breaker (Scheme 2)

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Substation Reliability
Evaluation
MERALCO Substation Reliability Study*
%
s Us
Configuration Improvement
(failure/yr) (hr/yr) s Us

Original Scheme
(Single breaker-single bus) 0.106848 0.342382 ---- ----

Alternate Scheme 1 (Ring

bus) 0.081546 0.263267 23.68 23.11

Alternate Scheme 2
(Breaker-and-a-half bus) 0.080923 0.261983 24.26 23.48

* A. Gonzalez & R. R. del Mundo (2005)

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Generation System
Reliability Evaluation
 Conceptual Task and System
Representation
 Generating Capacity Model
 Loss-of-Load Expectation Method
 Loss-of-Energy Expectation Method

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Conceptual Task and System

Representation

G L
Total System Generation Total System Load

Generation Load
Model Model

Risk
Model

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Conceptual Task and System

Representation
If the hazard rate of a generating unit is constant

ht   

The failure density function is exponential

f t   e
 t

The mean-time-to-failure is

1
MTTF   m (mean up time)


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Conceptual Task and System

Representation
Also, if the repair rate function is constant
r t   
the mean-time-to-repair is

1
MTTR   r (mean repair time)

The mean-time-between-failures

MTBF  mean uptime  mean repair time

 MTTF  MTTR
MTBF  m  r  T

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Conceptual Task and System

Representation
The Cycle Frequency is

1
f 
T
The Availability is the steady-state or long term
probability that the generating unit is in operating
condition (UP state)
mean up time mean up time
A 
cycle time mean up time  mean repair time

m m 
A  
T mr  

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Conceptual Task and System

Representation
The Unavailability of a generating unit is the probability
of finding a unit on forced outage at some future time.
This is technically termed as Forced Outage Rate or
FOR.

U  1  Availability

U
r r 
 
T mr  

 down time
U
 down time   up time
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Conceptual Task and System

Representation

Up
Rate of Rate of
State Generator
Departure Entry
  1 UP  
2 DOWN  

Down

Single Generating Unit

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Conceptual Task and System

Representation

1
Rate of Rate of
State Gen 1 Gen 2
Departure Entry
2 1 UP UP 1  2 1  2
3 2 DOWN UP 1  2 1  2
3 UP DOWN 1  2 1  2
4 DOWN DOWN 1  2 1  2

Two Generating Units

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Conceptual Task and System

Representation
1 1U
3
1 2U
3U
1 2  2 3
1D 1U 1U
2 2U 3 2D 4 2U Markov Transition
3U
1 3U
2 3D
States = 2n
2  2  3 3  3 3 1 1
1D
1 1U
2 1D
5 2D 7 2D 6 2U
3U 3D 3D

3 1 1 2
1D
8 2D
3 3D 2 Three Generating Units

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Generating Capacity Model

A system consist of two 3 MW units and one 5 MW
unit each with forced outage rate of 0.02.
Markov Transition States (23 = 8)`
State Gen. 1 Gen. 2 Gen. 3 Capacity In Capacity Out
1 UP UP UP 3+3+5 = 11 MW 0 MW
2 DOWN UP UP 0+3+5 = 8 MW 3 MW
3 UP DOWN UP 3+0+5 = 8 MW 3 MW
4 UP UP DOWN 3+3+0 = 6 MW 5 MW
5 DOWN DOWN UP 0+0+5 = 5 MW 6 MW
6 UP DOWN DOWN 3+0+0 = 3 MW 8 MW
7 DOWN UP DOWN 0+3+0 = 3 MW 8 MW
8 DOWN DOWN DOWN 0+0+0 = 0 MW 11 MW
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Generating Capacity Model

Exact (Individual) Probability Table
 This is the probability of finding a quantity of
capacity on outage exactly equal to the indicated
capacity
State Capacity Out Gen. 1 Gen. 2 Gen. 3 probability
1 0 MW 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.941192
2 3 MW 0.02 0.98 0.98 0.019208
3 3 MW 0.98 0.02 0.98 0.019208
4 5 MW 0.98 0.98 0.02 0.019208
5 6 MW 0.02 0.02 0.98 0.000392
6 8 MW 0.98 0.02 0.02 0.000392
7 8 MW 0.02 0.98 0.02 0.000392
8 11 MW 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.000008
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Generating Capacity Model

Cumulative Probability Table
 This is the probability of finding a quantity of
capacity on outage equal or greater than the
indicated amount.
Capacity Out of Service Individual Probability Cumulative Probability
0 MW 0.941192 1.000000
3 MW 0.038416 0.058808
5 MW 0.019208 0.020392
6 MW 0.000392 0.001184
8 MW 0.000784 0.000792
11 MW 0.000008 0.000008
1.000000
Pcap out  3  P3  P5  P6  P8  P11
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Generating Capacity Model

Recursive Algorithm
 The cumulative probability of a particular capacity
outage state of X MW after a unit of capacity C MW
and forced outage rate FOR is added is given by:
P X   1  FOR P'  X   FOR P'  X  C 
Where, P (X) - Cumulative Probability of X MW
or more on outage of new table
P’(X) - Probability of X MW or more on
outage of old table
C - Capacity of unit to be added
Initial Setting: P’(X) = 1.0 for X  0,
P’(X) = 0 otherwise
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Generating Capacity Model

Recursive Algorithm UNIT RATING (MW) FOR
1 3 0.02
2 3 0.02
3 5 0.02
STEP 1: Add Unit No.1 C = 3 MW
P0   1  FOR P' 0   FOR P' 0  3
 1  0.02 1.0   0.02 1.0   1.0
P1  1  0.02 P' 1  0.02 P' 1  3
 0.98 0   0.02 1.0   0.02
P2   1  0.02 P' 2   0.02 P' 2  3
 0.98 0   0.02 1.0   0.02
P3  1  0.02 P' 3  0.02 P' 3  3
 0.98 0   0.02 1.0   0.02

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Recursive Algorithm
STEP 2: Add Unit No. 2 C = 3 MW
P0   1  0.02 P' 0   0.02 P' 0  3
 0.98 1.0   0.02 1.0   1.0
P1  1  0.02 P' 1  0.02 P' 1  3
 0.98 0.02   0.02 1.0   0.0396
P2   1  0.02 P' 2   0.02 P' 2  3
 0.98 0.02   0.02 1.0   0.0396
P3  1  0.02 P' 3  0.02 P' 3  3
 0.98 0.02   0.02 1.0   0.0396
P4   1  0.02 P' 4   0.02 P' 4  3
 0.98 0   0.02 0.02   0.0004
P5   1  0.02 P' 5   0.02 P' 5  3
 0.98 0   0.02 0.02   0.0004
P6   1  0.02 P' 6   0.02 P' 6  3
 0.98 0   0.02 0.02   0.0004
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Recursive Algorithm
STEP 3: Add Unit No. 3 C = 5 MW
P0   1  0.02 P' 0   0.02 P' 0  5 
 0.98 1.0   0.02 1.0   1.0
P3  1  0.02 P' 3  0.02 P' 3  5 
 0.98 0.0396   0.02 1.0   0.058808
P5   1  0.02 P' 5   0.02 P' 5  5 
 0.98 0.0004   0.02 1.0   0.020392
P6   1  0.02 P' 6   0.02 P' 6  5 
 0.98 0.0004   0.02 0.0396   0.001184
P8   1  0.02 P' 8   0.02 P' 8  5 
 0.98 0   0.02 0.0396   0.000792
P11  1  0.02 P' 11  0.02 P' 11  5 
 0.98 0   0.02 0.0004   0.000008

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Loss of Load Expectation Method

Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE)
The expected number of days in the specified period
in which the daily peak load will exceed the available
capacity.
Notes:
LOLE is known in the power industry as the LOLP.
LOLP is not a probability index but an expectation.
The expected risk of loss of load is determined by
convolving the system capacity outage table and the
system load characteristic.

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Loss of Load Expectation Method

Load Models

Daily Peak Demand

Daily Peak, MW
January 1
to
December 31
0 365
Day

Actual Load Curve

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Loss of Load Expectation Method

Load Models
Daily Peak Demand
Arrange in Descending Order

Load Variation Curve Linearized LVC

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Loss of Load Expectation Method

n
LOLE   pk t k
k 1
n
LOLE   t k  t k 1 Pk
k 1
n
  Tk Pk
k 1

Where, Ok - Magnitude of the kth outage in the system

capacity outage probability table
tk - Number of time units in the study interval that
an outage magnitude Ok would result in a loss
of load
pk - Individual probability of the capacity outage Ok.
Pk - Cumulative outage probability for capacity state Ok.
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LOLE Method Capacity

Individual Cumulative
Out of
EXAMPLE : Probability Probability
Service
Consider a system 0 0.950991 1.000000
40 0.048029 0.049009
containing 5 - 40 MW
80 0.000971 0.000980
units each with a FOR 120 0.000009 0.000009
of 0.01. The capacity Note: Probability values less than
outage probability table 10-8 have been deleted.
is shown on the right. Installed Capacity = 200 MW

02 = 40MW 03 = 80MW 04 = 120 MW

Daily Peak Load (MW)

160

The system load model 120

T4 = 41.7%
t3 = T3 = 41.7%
is represented by the 80
t4 = 83.4%
64 64
daily peak load
variation curve in the
0 Time (%) 100
figure on the right. Time periods during which loss of load occurs

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LOLE Method
LOLE using Individual Probabilities
Capacity Out of Capacity In Individual Total Time, tk LOLP
Service (MW) Service (MW) Probability, pk (% ) pk tk
0 200 0.950991 0.0 0.0000000
40 160 0.048029 0.0 0.0000000
80 120 0.000971 41.7 0.0404907
120 80 0.000009 83.4 0.0007506
0.0412413
LOLE using the Cumulative Probabilities
Capacity Out of Capacity In Cumulative Total Time, Tk LOLP
Service (MW) Service (MW) Probability, Pk (% ) P k Tk
0 200 1.000000 0.0 0.0000000
40 160 0.049009 0.0 0.0000000
80 120 0.000980 41.7 0.0408660
120 80 0.000009 41.7 0.0003753
0.0412413
If the time considered is 365 days per year then,
LOLE  3650.0412413 100   0.1505301 days year
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Loss of Load Expectation Method

n
LOLP   Pi Ci  Li  days/period
i 1

Where, Ci - Available capacity on day i

Li - Forecast peak load on day i
Pi(Ci – Li) - Probability of loss of load on day i. This
value is obtained directly from the capacity
outage cumulative probability table.

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Loss of Load Expectation Method

EXAMPLE :
What is the LOLE of the 450 MW system in a 5-day
period?

Generator and Demand Data

Unit Rating (MW) FOR Day MW
A 100 0.01 1 95
B 150 0.02 2 120
C 200 0.03 3 160
4 110
5 90

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LOLE Method
Generation Model
STATE G1 G2 G3 CAP IN CAP OUT EXACT CUMULATIVE
1 100 150 200 450 0 0.941094 1.000000
2 0 150 200 350 100 0.009506 0.058906
3 100 0 200 300 150 0.019206 0.049400
4 100 150 0 250 200 0.029106 0.030194
5 0 0 200 200 250 0.000194 0.001088
6 0 150 0 150 300 0.000294 0.000894
7 100 0 0 100 350 0.000594 0.000600
8 0 0 0 0 450 0.000006 0.000006
DAY MW DAY MW
1 95 1 160
2 120 2 120
3 160 3 110
Load Model
4 110 4 95
5 90 5 90

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LOLE Method
System Reliability
PROB. OF
SYSTEM PEAK LOAD RESERVE
DAY LOSS-OF-
CAPACITY (MW) (MW) (MW)
LOAD
1 450 160 290 0.000894
2 450 120 330 0.000600
3 450 110 340 0.000600
4 450 95 355 0.000006
5 450 90 360 0.000006
LOLP 0.002106

LOLE = 0.002106 Days/5-Days

Annual LOLP 365 days period

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LOLE Method

EXAMPLE:
100 MW system with annual peak load of 57 MW

System Capacity Data

Unit No. Capacity (MW) FOR
1 25 0.02
2 25 0.02
3 50 0.02

System Load Data

Daily Peak Load 57 52 46 41 34
No. of Occurences 12 83 107 116 47 = 365 days

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LOLE Method
Using the recursive algorithm, the capacity outage
cumulative probability table is
Capacity Out of Service (MW) Cumulative Probability
0 1.000000
25 0.058808
50 0.020392
75 0.000792
100 0.000008
LOLP  12 P100  57   83 P100  52   107 P100  46 
 116 P100  41  47 P100  34 
 12 P43  83 P48   107 P54   116 P59   47 P66 
 120.020392   830.020392   107 0.000792 
 116 0.000792   47 0.000792 
LOLP  2.15108 days year
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LOLE Method
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Loss of Load Expectation Method

Application in Generation System Expansion Analysis

Alternative 2
Megawatts

Alternative 1 Peak megawatt

demand

MW0

0 2 4 6 8 Years

Note: MW0 = capacity of existing generating plant

Generation Capacity
Vs. Peak Load LOLP Vs. Peak Load

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Loss of Load Expectation Method

Application in Generation System Expansion Analysis
Consider a system containing five 40 MW units each with a
forced outage rate of 0.01.

Load Growth at 10% p.a.

Year Number Forecast Peak Load (MW)
1 160.0
2 176.0
3 193.6
4 213.0
Percentage of days the daily peak load 5 234.3
exceeded the indicated value 6 257.5
7 283.1
Daily peak load variation curve
8 311.4

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Loss of Load Expectation Method

Application in Generation System Expansion Analysis

Generation model for the

Installed Capacity = 200 MW
five-unit system.
02 = 40MW 03 = 40MW 04 = 40 MW
Sytem installed capacity = 200 MW 160

Daily Peak Load (MW)

T4 = 41.7%
Capacity out Individual Cumulative 120
t3 = T3 = 41.7%
of service Probability Probability 80
t4 = 83.4%
0 MW 0.950991 1.000000 64 64

40 MW 0.048029 0.049009
80 MW 0.000971 0.000980 0 Time (%) 100
120 MW 0.000009 0.000009 Time periods during which loss of load occurs

1.000000

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Loss of Load Expectation Method

LOLE using individual probabilities
Capacity Out Capacity In Individual Total Time LOLE
of Service (MW) Service (MW) Probability tk (% ) (% )
0 200 0.950991 0.0 -
40 160 0.048029 0.0 -
80 120 0.000971 41.7 0.0404907
120 80 0.000009 83.4 0.0007506
1.000000 0.0412413

LOLE using cumulative probabilities

Capacity Out Capacity In Cumulative Total Time LOLE
of Service (MW) Service (MW) Probability tk (% ) (% )
0 200 1.000000 0.0 -
40 160 0.049009 0.0 -
80 120 0.000980 41.7 0.040866
120 80 0.000009 41.7 0.0003753
0.0412413

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LOLE Method
LOLE (days/year)
System Peak 200 MW
Load (MW) Capacity
100 0.001210
120 0.002005
140 0.086860
160 0.150600
180 3.447000
200 6.083000
220 -
240 -
250 -
260 -
280 -
300 -
320 -
340 -
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LOLE Method
Add 50 MW, FOR = 0.01
System Capacity: 250 MW

LOLE (days/year)
System Peak 200 MW 250 MW
Load (MW) Capacity Capacity
100 0.001210 -
120 0.002005 -
140 0.086860 0.001301
160 0.150600 0.002625
180 3.447000 0.068650
200 6.083000 0.150500
220 - 2.058000
240 - 4.853000
250 - 6.083000
260 - -
280 - -
300 - -
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P. National Engineering - Center Competency Training & Certification Program in
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340 Electrification
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- Electric Power Distribution System Engineering
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LOLE Method
Add 50 MW, FOR = 0.01
System Capacity: 300 MW
LOLE (days/year)
System Peak 200 MW 250 MW 300 MW
Load (MW) Capacity Capacity Capacity
100 0.001210 - -
120 0.002005 - -
140 0.086860 0.001301 -
160 0.150600 0.002625 -
180 3.447000 0.068650 -
200 6.083000 0.150500 0.002996
220 - 2.058000 0.036100
240 - 4.853000 0.180000
250 - 6.083000 0.661000
260 - - 3.566000
280 - - 6.082000
300 - - -
320 - - -
340 U. P. National
- - -
Engineering Center Competency Training & Certification Program in
350 National -Electrification
- -
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Training Course in Power System Reliability Analysis 154

LOLE Method
Add 50 MW, FOR = 0.01
System Capacity: 350 MW
System LOLE (days/year)
Peak 200 MW 250 MW 300 MW 350 MW
Load (MW) Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity
100 0.001210 - - -
120 0.002005 - - -
140 0.086860 0.001301 - -
160 0.150600 0.002625 - -
180 3.447000 0.068650 - -
200 6.083000 0.150500 0.002996 -
220 - 2.058000 0.036100 -
240 - 4.853000 0.180000 0.002980
250 - 6.083000 0.661000 0.004034
260 - - 3.566000 0.011750
280 - - 6.082000 0.107500
300 - - - 0.290400
320 - - - 2.248000
340 - - - 4.880000
350 - - - 6.083000

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Loss of Energy Expectation

Method
Let, Ok - Magnitude of the
capacity outage
Pk - Probability of the
capacity outage
equal to Ok
Ek - Energy curtailed by
capacity outage
equal to Ok.

Load Model: Load Duration Curve (LDC)

Individual hourly load values arranged in decreasing orders
The area under the curve represents the energy required in the
given period

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LOEE Method
Load Models
HOUR PEAK P.U. PEAK
1 1452 0.71
2 1422 0.69
3 1446 0.71
4 1405 0.69
5 1440 0.70
6 1464 0.71
7 1417 0.69
8 1455 0.71
9 1547 0.75
10 1498 0.73
11 1574 0.77
12 1535 0.75
13 1501 0.73
14 1499 0.73
15 1504 0.73
16 1487 0.73
17 1504 0.73
18 1659 0.81
19 2051 1.00
20 1960 0.96
21 1830 0.89
22 1718 0.84 Hourly Load Curve
23 1598 0.78
24 1661 0.81
(Luzon Grid)

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LOEE Method
Load Models
HOUR P.U. PEAK
1 1.00
2 0.96
3 0.89
4 0.84
5 0.81
6 0.81
7 0.78
8 0.77
9 0.75
10 0.75
11 0.73
12 0.73
13 0.73
14 0.73
15 0.73
16 0.73
17 0.71
18 0.71
19 0.71
20 0.71
21
22
0.70
0.69
Load Duration Curve
23 0.69 (Hourly Peak arrange in descending order)
24 0.69

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LOEE Method

The probability energy curtailed by a capacity

outage equal to Ok is Ekpk.
Loss of Energy Expectation is the total energy
curtailment because of capacity outages.
n
LOEE   Ek pk
k 1

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LOEE Method
Example:
Generator Model

STATE CAP IN CAP OUT EXACT CUMULATIVE

1 450 0 0.941094 1.000000
2 350 100 0.009506 0.058906
3 300 150 0.019206 0.049400
4 250 200 0.029106 0.030194
5 200 250 0.000194 0.001088
6 150 300 0.000294 0.000894
7 100 350 0.000594 0.000600
8 0 450 0.000006 0.000006

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LOEE Method
Hourly Load
1 160.00 13 117.09
2 152.90 14 116.94
3 142.76 15 116.86
4 134.02 16 116.00
5 129.58 17 114.21
6 129.42 18 113.51
7 124.66 19 113.27
8 122.79 20 112.80
9 120.68 21 112.34
10 119.75 22 110.93
11 117.33 23 110.54
12 117.33 24 109.61
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LOEE Method
CAP IN = 150 PROB = 0.000294
HOUR LOAD CURTAILED EXPECTATION
1 160.00 10.00 0.002940
2 152.90 2.90 0.000853
n
LOEE   Ek pk
3 142.76 0.00 0.000000
4 134.02 0.00 0.000000
5 129.58 0.00 0.000000
k 1 6 129.42 0.00 0.000000
7 124.66 0.00 0.000000
8 122.79 0.00 0.000000
Reserve Capacity 9
10
120.68
119.75
0.00
0.00
0.000000
0.000000
= 450 – 160 MW 11 117.33 0.00 0.000000
12 117.33 0.00 0.000000

= 290MW
13 117.09 0.00 0.000000
14 116.94 0.00 0.000000
15 116.86 0.00 0.000000
16 116.00 0.00 0.000000
17 114.21 0.00 0.000000
Energy Curtailment 18 113.51 0.00 0.000000
19 113.27 0.00 0.000000
starts at Capacity-in- 20 112.80 0.00 0.000000

Service = 150 MW
21 112.34 0.00 0.000000
22 110.93 0.00 0.000000
23 110.54 0.00 0.000000
24 109.61 0.00 0.000000
SUBTOTAL 12.901024 0.003793

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LOEE Method
CAP IN = 100 PROB = 0.000594
HOUR LOAD CURTAILED EXPECTATION
1 160.00 60.00 0.035640
2 152.90 52.90 0.031423
n
LOEE   Ek pk
3 142.76 42.76 0.025399
4 134.02 34.02 0.020209
5 129.58 29.58 0.017568
k 1 6 129.42 29.42 0.017475
7 124.66 24.66 0.014649
8 122.79 22.79 0.013537
9 120.68 20.68 0.012285
Energy Curtailment at 10 119.75 19.75 0.011729

Capacity-in-Service
11 117.33 17.33 0.010293
12 117.33 17.33 0.010293
13 117.09 17.09 0.010154
100 MW 14
15
116.94
116.86
16.94
16.86
0.010061
0.010015
16 116.00 16.00 0.009505
17 114.21 14.21 0.008439
18 113.51 13.51 0.008022
19 113.27 13.27 0.007883
20 112.80 12.80 0.007605
21 112.34 12.34 0.007327
22 110.93 10.93 0.006493
23 110.54 10.54 0.006261
24 109.61 9.61 0.005705
SUBTOTAL 535.309605 0.317974

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LOEE Method
CAP IN = 0 PROB = 0.000006
HOUR LOAD CURTAILED EXPECTATION
1 160.00 160.00 0.000960
2 152.90 152.90 0.000917
n
LOEE   Ek pk
3 142.76 142.76 0.000857
4 134.02 134.02 0.000804
5 129.58 129.58 0.000777
k 1 6 129.42 129.42 0.000777
7 124.66 124.66 0.000748
8 122.79 122.79 0.000737
9 120.68 120.68 0.000724
Energy Curtailment at 10 119.75 119.75 0.000718

Capacity-in-Service
11 117.33 117.33 0.000704
12 117.33 117.33 0.000704
13 117.09 117.09 0.000703
0 MW 14
15
116.94
116.86
116.94
116.86
0.000702
0.000701
16 116.00 116.00 0.000696
17 114.21 114.21 0.000685
18 113.51 113.51 0.000681
19 113.27 113.27 0.000680
20 112.80 112.80 0.000677
21 112.34 112.34 0.000674
22 110.93 110.93 0.000666
23 110.54 110.54 0.000663
24 109.61 109.61 0.000658
SUBTOTAL 2935.309605 0.017612

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LOEE Method
164

LOEE Method
n
LOEE   Ek pk
k 1

STATE CAP IN CAP OUT PROB CURTAILED EXPECTATION

1 450 0 0.941094 0.00 0.00000
2 350 100 0.009506 0.00 0.00000
3 300 150 0.019206 0.00 0.00000
4 250 200 0.029106 0.00 0.00000
5 200 250 0.000194 0.00 0.00000
6 150 300 0.000294 12.90 0.00379
7 100 350 0.000594 535.31 0.31797
8 0 450 0.000006 2935.31 0.01761
LOEE (MWH) 0.33938

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Economics of Power System

Reliability
 Impact of Power Interruptions
 Reliability Worth
 Optimal Power System Reliability

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Impact of Power Interruptions

 To Electric Utility
• Loss of revenues
• Additional work
• Loss of confidence
 To Customers
• Dissatisfaction
• Interruption of productivity
• Additional investment for alternative
power supply
 To National Economy
• Loss value added/income
• Loss of investors
• Unemployment
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Impact of Power Interruptions

Impact to National Economy:
NEDA Study (1974)
 P 342,380 per day – losses due to brownout in Cebu-Mandaue
area
Business Survey (1980)
 P1.4 Billion – losses due to brownouts in 1980
 CRC Memo No. 27 (1988)
 P 3.4 Billion – loss of the manufacturing sector in 1987 due to
power outages
Viray & del Mundo Study (1988)
 P 25 – losses in Value Added per kWh curtailment
Sinay Report (1989)
 45% – loss in Value Added in the manufacturing sector in
Cebu due to power outages

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Impact of Power Interruptions

Impact to Customers:
A. Short-Run Direct Cost
• Opportunity losses during outages
• Opportunity losses during restart period
• Raw materials spoilage
• Finish products spoilage
• Idle workers
• Overtime
• Equipment damage
• Special operation and maintenance during restart period
B. Long-Run Adaptive Response Cost
• Standby generators
• Power plant
• Alternative fuels
• Transfer location
• Inventory
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Reliability Worth
Outage Cost to Industrial Sector in Luzon

(0.0086 + 0.0023D)F + 0.1730 Pesos/kWh

Where, F – Frequency of Interruptions

D – Average Duration of Interruptions

Source: del Mundo (1991)

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Optimal Power System

Luzon Grid Reliability
1.80
LOLP Reserve 3,000
1.60 Capacity MW
Outage Cost days
1.40 /yr (%) Demand
Cost (P/kWh)

1.20 690
10 23% MW
1.00
810
0.80 5 27% MW
Supply Cost
0.60 1,020
1* 34% MW
0.40
1,350
0.20
0.1 45% MW
0
100 10 1 0.1 0.01
RESERVE CAPACITY REQTS.
RELIABILITY in LOLP (Days/yr) * Optimum Reliability Level
Source: Del Mundo (1991) (Luzon Grid, 1990)
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