Why T-X Losers UK to EASA How NASA Is Europe’s Flight Plan

Are Not Quitting ‘Cheerio’ Cutting Red Tape for AI in Aviation

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FEATURES
16 | Ground Stop
Airlines and OEMs seek bailouts
and scramble to regroup as the
coronavirus crisis rages
28 | UK EASA Exit
Industry is not impressed with
the UK’s plans to break from the
European regulator 33 | Quantifying the benefits of PROPULSION
ADS-B In applications 50 | NASA planning electrified
36 | T-X Redux
propulsion flight demonstrations
A new U.S. Air Force contract BUSINESS
called the RFX revives hope for 34 | Lockheed signals change is URBAN AIR MOBILITY
the losing T-X contract bidders coming with new CEO 52 | Transcend Air refines design
48 | South American Defense DEFENSE for intercity VTOL
We spotlight some of the defense 38 | As USAF fleet plans evolve, can TECHNOLOGY
requirements that could translate F-35A program survive intact?
into new acquisitions this decade 53 | Europe guiding industry on
40 | MDA seeks two-year schedule applying AI to aviation
56 | Building Artemis bump for new GBI option
NASA speeds procurement SPACE
processes to meet 2024 deadline 41 | Possible new “engine war” 54 | Northrop partners with DARPA
to land crew on Moon recasts P&W as champion of to build robotic satellite servicer
competition
57 | SLS cost overrun triggers
DEPARTMENTS 42 | Marines dial back UAS strategy congressional alert
6 | Feedback 14 | Leading Edge 43 | U.S. Army pushes ahead with 58 | SpaceX founder bemoans slow
7 | Who’s Where 15 | Launch Pad Black Hawk replacement pace of innovation
8-9 | First Take 64 | Classified
10 | Up Front 65 | Contact Us 44 | Korean Air designs stealth 62 | Space Force ups the launch ante
12 | Going Concerns 65 | Aerospace drone demonstrator
Calendar EDITORIAL
46 | Post-Brexit defense review
66 | Commercial aviation will survive
challenged by costs and
COMMERCIAL AVIATION the coronavirus and thrive again
coronavirus
24 | COVID-19 outbreak ushers in
new cabin-cleaning techniques ON THE COVER
Air transport ground to a halt in many parts of the world as the COVID-19 pandemic tightened its
26 | ET302 interim report piles on
grip on Europe and North America. Starting on page 16, Aviation Week’s global team of reporters
MAX, ignores pilots
provides an in-depth look at the biggest crisis ever to hit the commercial air transport industry—and
30 | UK regions could suffer from how aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers are bracing for financial carnage in the coming months.
Flybe failure fallout Photo by John Lund /Getty Images
Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST
31 | Europe’s LCCs embark
on new partnerships DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 3

 Editor-In-Chief
Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected]
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Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey,
Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy-
Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne,
Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield,
Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble
Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George
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4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

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 FEEDBACK

WHICH ENGLISH? these unsalable aircraft, although one of If each of these crews had main-
Elizabeth Mathews is right in her Howard Hughes’ former girlfriends did tained configuration, climbed to a safe
analysis (March 9-22, p. 12), but which make an offer. maneuvering altitude and leveled off,
English language are we talking about? The 880, however, proved its tough- the MCAS would never have come into
I remember an AW&ST paper titled ness when the machines the contractor play. Public reports to date indicate
“Translating English into English” at had used successfully some years ear- neither crew ever reduced power from
the time the U.S. bought British AV-8B lier to chop up then-retiring Constel- takeoff thrust. This allowed the aircraft
Harriers. lations failed to do serious damage to to eventually accelerate to Vmco and
the 880s. Incidentally, Elvis’ 880 was beyond, making manual trim inputs
Andre Fournerat, Charenton-le-Pont, acquired by Delta Air Lines through impossible due to air loads.
France its purchase of Northeast Airlines, also The above crashes are not the only
owned by Hughes. ones where lack of the flight crew’s
IN PICTURES LTD/CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES

As an aside, the CJ805 that powered ability to manually fly the aircraft was
the 880, in addition to being fuel-hun- a factor. Asian Airlines 214, Air France
gry, was almost certainly the most unre- 447 and Atlas Air 3591 are just three
liable engine ever produced by GE. Yet additional examples where airline flight
it may have been the source of that com- crews unsuccessfully attempted to
pany’s later success because, in spite of manually fly the aircraft.
the engine’s troubles, the company’s My suggestions are to first strong-
customer service in dealing with them ly recommend that when one mode
effectively paved the way for industry (autopilot) is disconnected, the oth-
acceptance later. er automation mode (auto-throttle)
also be disconnected. This leaves no
LOCAL LANGUAGES Robin H. H. Wilson, Seattle doubt that the pilot is controlling both
As an ICAO English language profi- modes. My second suggestion is that
ciency rater and head of training, I MANUAL PROFICIENCY recurrent training include some time
could not agree more with Elizabeth I applaud the recent move toward spent at both high and low altitudes in
Mathews’ comments on English including simulator training as part manual flight.
language testing requirements and of the Boeing 737 MAX return to All pilots should have confidence
especially with regard to required service reported in “Boeing MAX that when necessary they can manu-
training for aviation professionals Simulator Training Is Taking Shape” ally control the aircraft in all phases
(March 9-22, p. 12). (Feb. 27-March 8, p. 20). As a former of flight.
However, one of the biggest threats airline captain and line check airman,
to airline pilots operating in a global I observed an increasing tendency by David A Vecchi, Park City, Utah
environment is the persistent use of lo- pilots to defer to automation and a
cal language by controllers and pilots reluctance to fly the aircraft manually. PUMP PRESSURE
alike. Fly into Madrid or Paris any day, This is a very disturbing trend. The article “Refueling Revisited”
and 50% of the crucial air traffic control While aircraft manufacturers contin- (Feb. 27-March. 8, p. 42) states: “The
communication is conducted in Spanish ue to move toward automation (to one Air Force uses a boom that can pump
or in French. day incorporate artificial intelligence) up to 880 gal. per minute while the
As long as we tolerate this arrogance, to prevent flight outside the aircraft drogue system can pump 220-290 gal.
all our other efforts will bear little fruit. envelope, these “fixes” are years away. at the same rate.”
And when, despite the designer’s best Gallons per minute is a rate type
Helmut Kunz, Ratingen, Germany efforts, automation fails, pilots must measurement. I believe it should state
still be proficient at taking over manu- “at the same pressure.”
‘TOUGH OLD BIRD’ ally and putting the aircraft in a stable
As a follow-up to Lee Guthrie’s sis- attitude, troubleshooting the issue and Kerry Moore, Round Rock, Texas
ter’s recall of the “beautiful Convair returning the aircraft to a safe landing.
880” (March 9-22, p. 6), I should add In the case of both 737 MAX crashes,
that, from personal experience, the the original “abnormal” had nothing to
CLARIFICATION
880 was a “tough old bird.” As vice do with the Maneuvering Character-
president of technical services for istics Augmentation System (MCAS). “Once-Abandoned Light-Attack Acqui-
TWA in the 1970s, I was responsible The original malfunction was the angle sition Revived, Again” (Feb. 27-March 8,
for the mechanical performance of its of attack/stall warning system, which p. 50) should have stated that other
fleet, which then included 24 880s ac- also affected one of the pilots’ airspeed aircraft besides the Iomax are in con-
quired by its former owner, Howard and altimeter indications. tention for Mission Set 2.
Hughes, who established its specifica-
tions with Convair.
When those gas-guzzling airplanes Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology,
were grounded by the fuel prices fol- 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to:
lowing the 1973-74 oil embargo, I inher- [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity;
ited responsibility for the parting-out of a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 WHO’S WHERE

Tiphaine Louradour has been hired affairs at Kymeta Corp. and vice presi- corporate planning and financial
as International dent of trade policy and export control strategy. Ward was global head of
Launch Services for EADS North America. finance at BCG Digital Ventures and
president. Louradour Bollore Logistics group-level chief financial officer for
had been president has promoted Yves Computer Science Corp. He began his
of global commercial Laforgue to CEO of career at Lockheed Martin.
sales at United Launch the Americas region Pentastar Aviation has hired Brent
Alliance. from Asia-Pacific Hanson as account manager and cli-
BAE Systems has chief operating officer. ent relations representative. Hanson
promoted Tom Arseneault to president He succeeds Tony was regional sales director for Tex-
and chief executive officer from pres- Rodrigues. tron Aviation.
ident and chief operating officer. He Killick Aerospace Group has hired Bill Lockheed Martin has elected U.S.
succeeds Jerry DeMuro, who moves to Molloy as chief operating officer, a new Marine Corps Gen. (ret.) Joseph F.
BAE executive vice president of stra- position. Molloy held various leader- Dunford, Jr. to its board. He will serve
tegic initiatives and will serve on the ship positions in both the commercial on the classified business and security
U.S. board. and business aircraft divisions at Bom- and nominating and corporate gov-
Airbus has appoint- bardier Aerospace. ernance committees. He is a former
ed Richard Franklin CACI International has named chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
as managing director Daniel Walsh senior vice president and 2Excel Aviation has named Stuart
of Airbus Defence and corporate strategic advisor for its na- Stanyard, former Rolls-Royce finance
Space in the UK. He tional defense and homeland security director, to its board.
succeeds Colin Payn- business. He was White House deputy VOX Space, a launch services
ter, who is retiring. chief of staff for operations, director provider for the national security
Franklin will continue and deputy director of the White community, has named U.S. Air Force
to lead the secure communications House military office, a military aide Maj. Gen. (ret.) Susan Mashiko to its
business line, which includes the UK to former Presidents George W. Bush board. Her career has
Defense Ministry’s Skynet 5 secure mili- and Barack Obama and an instructor spanned a variety of
tary satellite communications pilot/aircraft commander for military space and acquisition
The National Air Transportation fixed-wing aircraft. assignments, includ-
Association has promoted Timothy R. ePropelled has named Gary Cardone ing as chief of the
Obitts to president and CEO from chief vice president and head of the elec- Programs Division in
operating officer. He succeeds Gary tro-magnetic motor company’s en- the Office of Special
Dempsey, who has stepped down. gineering and product development Projects and director
SunExpress has team. He was director of technology of the Evolved Expendable Launch
named Max and director and vice president of Vehicle Program.
Kownatzki as CEO, product development. General Dynamics has elected John
subject to board ap- Aerion Supersonic has hired Matthew G. Stratton to its board. Stratton was
proval. He succeeds Mejia as chief financial officer and executive vice president and president
Jens Bischof, who executive vice president of strategy of global operations at Verizon and
will become CEO of and investor relations. Mejia has held held various leadership positions at
Eurowings. Kownatzki leadership positions with the aerospace Bell Atlantic Mobile, its predecessor.
was a senior vice pres- practices at Booz & Co. and Charles Mercury Systems has appointed
ident at Lufthansa River Associates, among others. Orlando P. Carvalho, former executive
Group’s Hub Airlines. AAR has named Jessica A. Garascia vice president of Lockheed Martin
Northrop Grum- as general counsel. aeronautics, to its board.
man has elected Da- Garascia was USG The Massachusetts Institute of
vid F. Keffer corporate Corp. deputy general Technology has named Greg Olson
vice president and counsel, overseeing the Thermo- Calc Professor of the
chief financial officer. all mergers and Practice in the Materials Science
Keffer succeeds Kenneth Bedingfield, acquisitions, com- and Engineering Department. Olson
who has left the company. Keffer was a pliance, corporate co-founded metal-alloys developer
Blue Delta Capital partner and before governance and se- QuesTek Innovations and was a ten-
that chief financial officer at CSRA and curities law. ured professor of materials science
SRA International. The Aerospace Corp. has appointed and engineering at Northwestern
HawkEye 360 has hired Dennis Bur- Victor Ward as general manager of University. c
nett as executive vice president and
general counsel of the formation-flying To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no
satellite, data collection and analytics PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on
company. Burnett was consulting companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence
principal at LMI Advisors, chief coun- Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone
sel of regulatory and government U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 7

 FIRST
TAKE For the latest, go to
Mitsubishi Aircraft on March 18 flew the
first SpaceJet prototype conforming
to the revised, certifiable design of the
world, has invested in Skyports, a UK
developer of infrastructure for passen-
ger and cargo urban air mobility.
AVIATIONWEEK.COM regional jet. Certification of the initial
M90 version has slipped to 2021. Chinese electric vertical-takeoff-and-
landing (eVTOL) developer has signed
an agreement with the city of Seville to
launch its first urban air mobility pilot
program in Spain.
SIKORKSY-BOEING

COVID-19 IMPACTS
Facing coronavirus-related travel restric-
tions, airline capacity cuts are reaching
90%, more than 40 carriers have stopped
DEFENSE flying altogether, and the number keeps
The U.S. Army has awarded Bell and a LONGVIEW AIRCRAFT SERVICES rising. Multiple bankruptcies are expect-
Sikorsky-Boeing team two-year compet- ed before the industry recovers (page 16).
itive-demonstration and risk-reduction Canada’s Longview Aviation Services
contracts for the Future Long-Range flew the initial CL-215 amphibian up- Arianespace on March 16 suspended
Assault Aircraft to replace the UH-60 graded to a CL-415EAF Enhanced Ae- its launch preparation activities at
Black Hawk (page 43). rial Firefighter on March 10, the first Europe’s spaceport in Kourou, French
of six ordered by Bridger Aerospace of Guiana, as a precaution.
The U.S. Air Force has finalized a deal with Montana.
Textron Aviation for two AT-6 Wolver- NASA on March 17 ordered all employees
ines to join two Sierra Nevada/Embraer French startup VoltAero has begun to work at home, with only mission-crit-
A-29 Super Tucanos already ordered by flight testing its Cassio 1 hybrid-elec- ical personnel being allowed on sites
Air Force Special Operations Command. tric regional-aircraft testbed equipped throughout the U.S.
with two 45-kW motors supplied by Sa-
Mitsubishi Electric will supply four air- fran Electrical & Power. Airbus paused production at its
defense radars to the Philippines, in Ja- French and Spanish facilities for four
pan’s most significant arms sale since it Irelandia Aviation, which is behind five days, starting March 17, to implement
lifted a self-imposed ban on exporting different low-cost carriers around the new health and safety measures.
military equipment in 2014.
VIEW FROM WASHINGTON
The U.S. Air Force is scrambling to ac-
quire Gulfstream G550s to complete the
EC-37B Compass Call rehost program
NASA Keeps Eyes Fixed on Return to Orbit
ahead of a possible production shut- The COVID-19 pandemic may have caused NASA to shutter its
down, despite no official change in the centers, but the agency is working with SpaceX toward a mid-to-late-
company’s outlook for the jet. May launch of astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley on the first
manned Crew Dragon flight to the International Space Station (ISS).
Behnken and Hurley, both veterans of two space shuttle missions,
will comprise the first crew to fly aboard a U.S. orbital spaceship
since the shuttle Atlantis completed the 135th and final flight of
the program in July 2011. Hurley was the pilot on that mission.
DGAEMT ARMEES

Their return to orbit will be to test SpaceX’s Dragon 2 space-

craft following the company’s successful Demo-1 uncrewed trial
run to the ISS in March 2019. A firm launch date for the crewed
flight test, Demo-2, has not been set, but NASA on March 18
European missile manufacturer MBDA
has completed the first qualification issued a press advisory targeting a mid-to-late May timeframe.
firing of its Anglo-French Sea Venom/ Behnken and Hurley, colonels in the U.S. Air Force and U.S.
Anti-Navire Leger anti-ship missile Marine Corps, respectively, have been training for a possible ex-
from an AS365 Dauphin helicopter. tended stay on the ISS, which is currently understaffed.
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Hurley’s commander on the final shuttle mission, retired NASA
Boeing is to modify wiring in undelivered astronaut Chris Ferguson, joined Boeing in 2011 and is in training,
737 MAXs before handing them over to along with NASA astronauts Nicole Aunapu Mann and Michael
customers, but is still working with the Fincke, for a crewed flight aboard Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner,
FAA and operators on how to manage
grounded aircraft in customers’ fleets.
possibly later this year.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

On March 18, a French Air Force Airbus Smallsat launch company Rocket Lab
A330 tanker/transport equipped with has reached a deal to acquire Toronto-
the Morphee intensive-care module based satellite hardware supplier Sin-
began transferring COVID-19 patients clair Interplanetary.
from overloaded hospitals.
The first Orion spacecraft, scheduled
Textron Aviation plans to begin four- for an unmanned mission as part of
week furloughs for most of its 7,000 NASA’s Artemis lunar program, has
U.S. employees on March 23 and will passed key space environment tests.
adjust Cessna and Beechcraft produc-
tion rates to anticipated lower demand.

AVIATION WEEK NETWORK

Airbus UK and Rolls-Royce are among
companies that responded to a UK
government call for the rapid pro-
duction of medical ventilators to treat
people with the coronavirus.

SPACE
The European Space Agency and Rus- Bryan Perkins (center), Ann Speed and
sia’s Roscosmos have postponed their Joanna Speed (far left), Greg Hamilton and
joint ExoMars 2020 mission to 2022, as Joe Anselmo (far right).
testing could not be completed before NASA
this summer’s launch window. AWARDED
At the 34th Annual SpeedNews Com- OBITUARY
No reason has been given for the mercial Aviation Industry Suppliers Alfred “Al” Worden, command
March 16 failure of the first flight of the Conference in Los Angeles on March module pilot on the Apollo 15 mis-
second version of China’s Long March 10, the Aviation Week Network pre- sion to the Moon, died March 18
7 medium-heavy spacecraft from Wen- sented the Sixth Annual Gilbert W. in Texas. He was 88. Worden was
chang on Hainan. Speed Award to Bryan Perkins, CEO a U.S. Air Force test pilot before
and cofounder of Novaria Group. He being selected by NASA as an as-
SpaceX’s 20th and final Dragon 1 cap- received the award from Ann Speed, tronaut in 1966. On Aug. 5, 1971,
sule reached the International Space Managing Director for A&D Events on the return trip from the Moon,
Station early March 9 to deliver a 4,300- Joanna Speed, Aviation Week Network Worden became the first person to
lb. cargo, including crew supplies and President Greg Hamilton and AW&ST
carry out a deep-space spacewalk,
science and technology payloads. Editor-in-Chief Joe Anselmo.
describing it as an “unbelievable
place to be.” He became a senior
aerospace scientist and later chief
80 YEARS AGO of the Systems Study Division at
IN AVIATION WEEK the NASA Ames Research Center.
The new B-24 bomber graced the cover After retiring from NASA and the
of our April 1, 1940, edition as part of an
Air Force in 1975, Worden became
an aerospace industry executive.
advertisement for Pratt & Whitney, which
supplied the aircraft’s four Twin Wasp en-
gines. Developed by Consolidated Aircraft
of San Diego, the B-24 was conceived as PROMOTED
a faster, longer-range cousin to the B-17, Lockheed Martin has tapped an aero-
designed to fly up to 290 mph and carry space veteran to lead the Pentagon’s
a 5,000-lb. (2,268-kg.) bomb for 1,700 largest contractor starting June 15.
mi. Dubbed the “Liberator,” the B-24 was Board member Jim Taiclet was named
mass-produced during World War II and de- to also be CEO and president. Current
ployed by the U.S. and UK to every theater, chief executive Marillyn Hewson will
bombing Axis targets, protecting maritime become executive chairman (page 34).
convoys, scouting and destroying U-boats
Alain Bellemare is stepping down as
and softening German defenses during the
president and CEO of Bombardier,
D-Day invasion of France. A total of 18,482 having overseen a radical restructur-
B-24s were built before production ended Read every issue of Aviation Week ing of the Canadian company. He will
in 1945, making it the most produced back to 1916 at: be succeeded by Eric Martel, current
bomber of all time. archive.aviationweek.com president and CEO of Hydro-Quebec
and a former Bombardier executive. c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 9

COMMENTARY

UP FRONT
KEVIN MICHAELS
THE RECENT PASSING OF FORMER OEMs, while the lower tiers of the supply chain were
GE CEO Jack Welch may represent more bled of working capital. Today, many subtier suppliers
than the loss of the icon named Manager are fragile, and their ability to invest in the future—let
of the Century by Fortune magazine in alone ride out a crisis like the 737 MAX production
1999. It may also symbolize the passing of an era in cap- shutdown—is diminished compared to a decade ago.
italism—“shareholders first”—that Welch did so much What about customers? On the one hand, brutal
to promulgate. What does this have to do with today’s competition between Airbus and Boeing held jetliner
aerospace industry? Plenty, as it turns out. prices relatively flat over the past 15 years. On the other
Before the “shareholders first” mantra took hold in hand, customer satisfaction in the aftermarket and cus-
the 1990s, publicly traded companies considered four tomer support is suffering. In last year’s AeroDynamic
stakeholders in allocating capital: customers, local com- Advisory/Aviation Week Network customer satisfac-
munities, employees and suppliers, and shareholders. tion survey, just one out of 41 OEMs received a positive
net promoter score from airlines.

Rethinking ‘Shareholders First’ The manifestation of the “share-

holders first” philosophy is very
negative for a long-cycle industry
Our long-cycle, innovation-driven industry is out of balance like aerospace, which faces enor-
mous challenges—including sus-
Before Welch took over in 1981, GE Average Annual Boeing tainable development—that will
publicly stated it valued workers and Expenditures, 2017-18 require large sums of R&D. Boeing,
research labs before shareholders. Af- (U.S. $ Billion) for example, spent an average of
ter 20 years of relentless focus on pro- $12.8 billion in share buybacks and
ductivity, cost-cutting and shedding $14 dividends in 2018 and 2019, while
more than 100,000 jobs, GE’s market averaging just $2.2 billion in R&D.
12
capitalization skyrocketed from $12 bil- This is not just a Boeing problem;
lion to an astounding $410 billion. Much 10 it is a corporate America prob-
of this profit growth was driven by fi- 5.8x lem. In 2018, share buybacks and
8
nancial services rather than traditional dividends for the S&P 500 were an
manufacturing. 6 astounding 109% of net income, ac-
Encouraged by the late economist cording to The Wall Street Journal.
Milton Friedman and success stories 4 This disparity points to another
such as GE, aerospace executives be- 2 issue: Companies are taking on
gan to adopt “shareholders first” in the debt to fund shareholder gener-
1990s. McDonnell Douglas famously 0 osity. This is not sustainable in
embraced this philosophy and focused Share R&D the long run and leaves no capital
Buybacks and
on quarterly earnings while refusing Dividends
to invest in customers, suppliers,
to invest in new civil aircraft. Its CEO, employees or local communities.
Source: Boeing
Harry Stonecipher, eventually took the Source: Boeing
Contrast this behavior with
leadership helm at Boeing. Responding to the percep- OEM customer Delta Air Lines, which earned $6.5 bil-
tion that he was only interested in making money, he lion in 2019. It shared $1.6 billion (16.7%) of that with
responded, “You’re right, I am.” employees—a record amount for a U.S. company. This
Employees were the first casualty, with unions translates into improved employee morale and in turn
weakened and raises curtailed. For example, until re- improved customer satisfaction, higher yields and
cently, Honeywell International imposed mandatory growing market share.
unpaid leave on its employees—while it was making Don’t get me wrong. I am a pro-business, free-trade
20% margins. As employees lost pace, so did local capitalist who depends on increasing stock prices to
communities. In the early 2000s, the number of em- fund his retirement. Making money and rewarding
ployees in low-wage countries became a key perfor- shareholders is a good thing. However, our long-cycle,
mance indicator. New aerospace clusters in places innovation-driven industry is clearly out of balance.
such as China, Eastern Europe and Mexico followed “Shareholders first” needs to be replaced by a more
suit. The blind push to leverage labor-arbitrage has balanced version of capitalism if the aerospace in-
ebbed in recent years, but the compact of secure em- dustry is to thrive in the long run. The change must
ployment was violated, and employee morale suffered. originate not only from aerospace leaders, including
A decade later, suppliers became the target of OEM the new CEOs of Airbus and Boeing, but also from the
supply chain cost-reduction initiatives with double-digit boards that evaluate them and set priorities. c
price reduction demands, longer payment terms, af-
termarket royalty payments and other concessions. Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of
Market capitalization shifted from suppliers to the AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

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COMMENTARY

GOING CONCERNS
MICHAEL BRUNO
THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK IS THE fleets there, and partner for local production of nonpro-
biggest punch to the gut commercial avi- prietary parts and systems for emerging Chinese fleets.
ation has taken since the Sept. 11, 2001, But China is ramping up efforts to get its own fleet into
terrorist attacks. And coming on the operation and is pairing with Russian suppliers more of-
heels of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis, Airbus and Boeing ten. Any growth in overall aerospace trade likely would
widebody production rate cuts, U.S. trade wars and the have to come from a jump in Chinese orders of Airbus
flight-shaming movement in Europe, the coronavirus or Boeing airliners, which was not widely expected in
emergency is challenging the aerospace manufacturing the wake of the Jan. 16 trade truce and is not anticipat-
sector and its global supply chain. ed now after the recent plummet in Chinese air traffic.
Is the historic upcycle of commercial aircraft or- Although collapsing demand worldwide for air travel
ders over? Will orders be canceled and deferred? Will could have a devastating effect on A&D manufactur-
business aviation go out of ing and supply, executives
favor? Only time will tell,
but it has been interesting Sharp Shock do not consider it likely.
COVID-19 quickly turned
to hear what aerospace How the coronavirus crisis is likely to into a short, sharp shock
and defense (A&D) exec- to the system, but industry
utives are worrying about. alter the aerospace supply chain leaders see the same un-
First, lost revenue from derlying macro conditions
disrupted operations in driving long-term growth.
China is not among their Chief among them: ex-
worries. Practically no one panding middle classes
in A&D manufacturing has worldwide that spend
revised their 2020 finan- more discretionary funds
cial forecasts—provided in traveling by air for leisure.
January or February—be- During the 2020 Avia-
cause of COVID-19 alone. tion Summit in Washing-
“To date, we have no ton, new Collins Aerospace
reported cases of our em- President Stephen Timm
ployees having contracted was asked if the airliner-
the virus, and the direct customer landscape could
impact to our trading ac- look a lot different in com-
tivities has been minimal,” ing years due to the scare.
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS
Senior Plc CEO David “Frankly, we’re going to
Squires said March 2. see differences,” Timm said. “This will be a blip—a se-
Likewise, GE CEO Larry Culp did not change the rious blip that we have to deal with today—but com-
company’s financial outlook because COVID-19 was pared with the macro aerospace industry, we’re in a
already cited in a forecast given last month. “In our really good place.”
view, in all likelihood it is going to be temporary, but it Where do industry insiders see change coming to
doesn’t mean it is going to disappear tomorrow,” Culp the supply chain? For one thing, COVID-19 could help
said at a March 4 shareholder briefing. deepen resistance to business travel, said some at-
To be sure, some OEMs and suppliers with Chinese tending Aviation Week’s Annual Aerospace Raw Mate-
operations had to shut down in recent weeks due to rials and Manufacturers Supply Chain Conference on
COVID-19. But those factories are back up, and the March 9-12. That would exacerbate the ongoing drop in
impact to revenue was limited. For instance, only 20 of demand for widebodies.
Triumph Group’s roughly 5,000 active suppliers are lo- Still, the biggest change could come in accelerating
cated in China or South Korea. All 20 remain operation- a budding shift in A&D supply from globalization to
al, and no supply chain interruptions have occurred. regionalization. Executives and consultants at both the
On the supply side, the glancing blow could have a lot Wharton Aerospace Conference on Feb. 29 and Aviation
to do with the fact that not much in Western aerospace Week’s supply chain event discussed how COVID-19 ce-
is sourced in China. According to U.S. Commerce De- ments a belief that just-in-time global supply chains are
partment data, the U.S. imports just $1.1 billion annu- too risky and not worth the lower cost anymore.
ally in aircraft, spacecraft and related parts. What is Instead, they look to capitalize on aerospace manu-
more, that figure has been dropping since 2016—be- facturing hubs in Asia, Europe-North Africa and North
fore the U.S.-China trade war—and was expected to America to supply themselves. The trend could start
fall off a cliff for 2019 and 2020 regardless of the “Phase with aerostructures for future single-aisle airliners, es-
One” trade deal truce. pecially as composite materials are increasingly incor-
China always was a twofold market for U.S. aerospace: porated. “From a colocation strategy,” says one supplier
Sell parts and services to existing Western-supplied executive, “you will see it in the next-gen airplanes.” c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

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COMMENTARY

LEADING EDGE
GRAHAM WARWICK
COMMERCIAL SPACE’S FAST PACE additionally challenging,” says Todd Master, DARPA
and the risks it is taking on are illustrated program manager.
by DARPA’s Launch Challenge, which end- The departure of VOX removed the need for hori-
ed on March 2 without the $12 million in zontal launch sites, so DARPA reduced the choice of
prize money being claimed. locations to two: Kodiak, Alaska, and Wallops Island,
Initiated in April 2018, the challenge was intended to Virginia. “As we got closer to launch, we realized we
demonstrate a flexible and responsive “anywhere, any- would be holding open a bunch of ranges and launch
time” capability to launch small satellites to low Earth dates,” Master says.
orbit (LEO) on demand. It was purpose-designed to Astra was given 72 days’ notice that the first flight
harness commercial industry’s efforts to dramatically would be from the Pacific Spaceport Complex at
reduce the cost and time to launch. Kodiak, but—instead of forcing it to pack up after
Competitors would be given weeks, not years, notice launch and move across the country—DARPA decid-
of the launch site, payload and orbit, and just days to ed the second flight would be from another pad 1,000
set up and launch. A successful flight to LEO would ft. away at Kodiak.
win $2 million and a chance to secure the $10 million “We didn’t want to make this a logistics challenge
grand prize by launch- or a regulatory chal-
ing a second time, just lenge,” Master says.

Hard Space
weeks later, from a “Whether we moved
different site, to a dif- 5,000 mi. or 1,000 ft.,
ferent orbit with a dif- the technical challeng-
ferent payload. DARPA learns the risks of es associated with it
Dozens of compa- and the benefit of
nies registered, 18 working with commercial what we are trying to
prequalified and, in space startups demonstrate remained
April 2019, the DARPA the same.”
named three finalists: Conducting both
Vector Launch, Virgin launches from Kodiak
Orbit subsidiary VOX simplified the regula-
Space and an uniden- tory process, making
tified startup in stealth it easier to meet re-
mode. They covered quirements for flight
both vertical and hor- safety analysis and
izontal launch options, ASTRA closing airspace. “But
and DARPA identified four possible launch sites across the team was still not sure until 30 days out what the
the U.S. final trajectory would be,” he says.
But the commercial industry was evolving quickly. The launch window established by DARPA opened
Vector withdrew from the challenge last September, on Feb. 17. Astra was able to transport its container-
citing financial issues. In December, with its small-sat- ized launch vehicle to Kodiak, set up on a bare pad,
ellite launcher still unflown, the startup filed for bank- integrate a DARPA-supplied payload, complete pre-
ruptcy protection. flight procedures and attempt a launch.
Formed to pursue the U.S. national-security market, But on March 2, 53 sec. from liftoff, Astra scrubbed
VOX withdrew in October 2019 to allow parent Virgin the launch because of a sensor anomaly, and the win-
Orbit to focus on the first commercial flights of its dow closed, ending the challenge without a single flight.
LauncherOne. The first test of the air-launched boost- “We set aggressive but achievable goals. Astra got close
er is imminent. but did not achieve them,” Master says.
The surviving challenge competitor was revealed in While disappointed, Master praises Astra for taking
February as Alameda, California-based Astra, founded on the challenge, which it says did achieve several of the
by former NASA Chief Technology Officer Chris Kemp goals set, including speeding up the regulatory process-
and Adam London, whose company, Ventions, formed es required to approve a launch. Undeterred, DARPA
the basis of the startup. is looking again at how to demonstrate that flexible and
By the time Astra was revealed as the sole partic- responsive space launch can be valuable in battle.
ipant, the character of the challenge had changed. In Astra’s first rocket is called “1 of 3” because it expects
2018, DARPA not only had anticipated multiple com- it will take three launches to reach orbit. Its participa-
petitors but also had expected them to complete sever- tion in the challenge was always high-risk. “We were 53
al test launches before the challenge flights. sec. from launch, and there was nothing at that site just
But delays at Astra meant the first launch under days before,” says London. “We knew it was a long shot,
the challenge would be the first flight for its rocket. but we understand how strategic responsive launch is
“Astra’s first launch moved to this year, which made it to the government.” c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

COMMENTARY

THE LAUNCHPAD
IRENE KLOTZ
ELON MUSK WAS DREAMING BIG in 2020, he’d be like: ‘That’s crazy.’ Yet, we are. We don’t
when he founded SpaceX in 2002 at the want to be in that situation.”
tender age of 30. He’s the first to admit While the fruits of SpaceX’s labor on the Crew Dragon
all the mistakes he has made in what may prove to be a program are at hand, Musk has turned his attention to
quixotic quest to help humanity evolve into a multiplanet the design and test of the Starship deep-space trans-
species. But what irks him the most is that 18 years lat- port, a two-stage, fully reusable system for passengers
er—and with age 50 clearly in sight—Musk is still waiting and cargo. “Moving ahead in the human exploration of
to fly people in space. space depends completely on a fully and rapidly reusable
“It’s great that we’re about to launch people to orbit; rocket,” says Musk. “Without that, we’re going nowhere.”
it’s been a long time—18 years. You could have [had] If building the behemoth Starship was not challeng-
a kid and have sent him off to college by now,” Musk ing enough, Musk simultaneously wants to ensure the
quipped during the Satellite 2020 keynote address in system can be manufactured rapidly—one Starship ev-
Washington on March 9. ery three days. SpaceX has reached a high production

Stepping Up the Pace Musk bemoans the slowness

of human spaceflight innovation

NASA
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, left, with NASA’s Bob Behnken, one of two astronauts slated for a flight test on Dragon 2 this spring.

SpaceX and Boeing were selected in 2014 by NASA rate with its Starlink internet satellites, pumping out 6-7
to develop and fly commercially owned and operated spacecraft per day, but nothing close to that rate with its
space taxis to the International Space Station (ISS), Falcon rocket fleet.
with first launch expected in 2017. At one time, SpaceX planned to produce 40 or so
Following a successful docking of an uncrewed Drag- Falcon core stages per year, says company President
on 2 capsule at the ISS in March 2019 and a demonstra- and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell. But that
tion of Dragon’s inflight launch abort system in January rate of production became unnecessary once SpaceX fi-
2020, SpaceX is preparing for a crewed flight to the ISS nalized a booster design that is expected to fly 10 times
as early as May. The mission will be the first to launch with minimal refurbishment between launches. The
astronauts into orbit from the United States since the company’s fleet leader launched for an unprecedented
end of the space shuttle program in 2011. fifth time on May 18.
“The thing that concerns me most right now is that Boosting Falcon first-stage manufacturing to 40 per
unless we improve our rate of innovation dramatically, year, however, would have helped the company learn
then there is no chance of a base on the Moon or a city more about improving production techniques, Shotwell
on Mars,” Musk says. adds. “Manufacturing is hard to do, and I think the U.S.
“We need to be very careful about getting stuck in has kind of lost the magic. We have a lot to learn from
a ‘low-Earth maximum,’” he says like what happened others.”
during the 1981-2011 space shuttle program or with Rus- Musk wants a fleet of 1,000 Starships, but he is start-
sia’s Soyuz spacecraft, currently the only transportation ing to feel the heavy hand of time. “If we don’t improve
system for station crew ferry flights. our pace of progress, I’m definitely going to be dead be-
“Why does Soyuz still fly? It was designed in the fore we go to Mars,” he says.
1950s,” says Musk. “If you told [Soviet designer] Sergei Which may explain Musk’s latest mantra: “If the
Korolev and the other guys that we’d still be flying Soyuz schedule is long, the design is wrong.” c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 15

COMMERCIAL AVIATION > COVID-19 and cabins p. 24 ET302 report p. 26 UK-EASA break p. 28 Flybe failure fallout p. 30

GROUND STOP
dustry look like when that happens?
> AIR TRANSPORT HAS NEARLY HALTED IN MANY Who will be left, and who will be gone?
Will demand for air travel return to
PARTS OF THE WORLD previous levels, given the unprec-
edented shock the global economy
> AIRLINES PLAN FOR EXTENDED GROUNDING is now experiencing? And will con-
tainment of the coronavirus be more
successful than anticipated, ushering
> IATA: INDUSTRY NEEDS $200 BILLION in a quicker-than-expected return to
relative normalcy?
FROM GOVERNMENTS What is clear is that the industry
that emerges from the crisis will need
to reset its business model. Over the
Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Sean Broderick and Ben Goldstein past five years, U.S. airlines spent 96%
Washington, Helen Massy-Beresford Paris, Adrian Schofield of their free cash flow on stock buy-
backs—which boost the share price—
Auckland and Bradley Perrett Beijing and dividends, leaving little cushion
for bad times.

J
ust over two years ago, American Airlines Chairman And those bad times could be
worse than anyone imagined. As re-
and CEO Doug Parker surveyed the U.S. airline land- cently as December, the International
scape and saw an unstoppable industry. “I don’t think Air Transport Association (IATA) ex-
we’re ever going to lose money again,” he proclaimed. pected the industry to turn a $29 bil-
lion net profit in 2020. Three months
“We have an industry that’s going to be profitable in good and later, IATA is forecasting a year-end-
bad times.” loss of $40 billion, similar to what was
seen in the 2008-09 global financial
The bad times have arrived, as any Numerous bankruptcies are expect- meltdown. IATA Director General
airline executive in the world can at- ed before the airline industry moves Alexandre de Juniac says the indus-
test. As COVID-19 spreads and an ev- into some kind of recovery mode. try will require $150-200 billion in
er-increasing number of countries go When that will happen is anyone’s government assistance to overcome
into lockdown, global air transport is guess, but the longer the devastating liquidity shortfalls.
grinding to a halt. Travel restrictions groundings continue, the less will be De Juniac believes one outcome of
abound, capacity cuts are reaching left of what had been a prospering the crisis will be industry consolida-
90% of normal levels, and more than industry globally. tion, as carriers are forced out of busi-
40 airlines have stopped flying alto- The questions now: When will prof- ness or form larger airlines to survive.
gether, a number that is rising daily. itability return, and what will the in- And aircraft manufacturers and sup-

A depressing sight at airports worldwide—empty gates waiting for aircraft.

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

European LCCs p. 31

Airline Liquidity*
pliers will feel the pinch in the
coming months as the effects Minimum Maximum Median
of deferred or canceled orders Months
ripple through the industry (see 10
page 21).
9
IATA Chief Economist Brian
8
Pearce projects that the average
7
airline has a little more than two
months’ worth of cash to cover 6

fixed costs. “There is a growing 5

liquidity crisis in air transport,” 4
he says. Countries affected by 3
COVID-19 now represent 94% of 2
the global air transport market, 1
and new travel restrictions and 0
border closures are being add- Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America
ed daily. “Demand has fallen to
zero,” Pearce says. *Cash and equivalents coverage of revenues. Latest available 12 month cumulative revenues for Africa,
Latin America and the Middle East might not be representative due to small sample size.
And not all airlines are equal.
Most airline profits during the Source: IATA
past decade were generated by
about 30 carriers at, or near, invest- dismisses speculation that demand domestic consolidation and this crisis
ment-grade ratings. Many others lost
Source: IATA for business travel will slump in the may prove similar . . . though current
money even in good economic times. post-COVID-19 environment. “It was fundamentals are gyrating with such
A slump in fuel prices will provide asked after 9/11, SARS, the full-size momentum that achieving merger
some cushion and could save the in- toiletry ban and the [2008-09 global traction may prove difficult,” the
dustry up to $30 billion annually. But financial crisis],” its analysts wrote analysts wrote. “From a regulatory
airline revenue losses are far greater, in a March 16 note to investors. “Our perspective, it’s hard to imagine the
and hedging—particularly popular in advice is to ignore the topic.” government blocking even the largest
Europe—is delaying the positive effect. Another area of rampant specu- of deals.”
So what is the other side of the lation: Which airlines will survive One wild card that will help deter-
COVID-19 crisis going to look like? the crisis? JP Morgan sees far more mine what the post-COVID-19 indus-
It will likely include the return of risk outside North America, which try looks like is government aid. Italy
high-yield demand but with fewer accounts for about 20% of global ca- is nationalizing perennially struggling
airlines—particularly outside North pacity but 65% of airline profits. Last Alitalia, and carriers around the
America, say analysts at JP Morgan. year “was already witness to a record world are leaning on their govern-
Global business travel has been number of airline failures despite a ments for help. U.S. airlines also
crippled by national travel bans, mass salubrious fundamental backdrop,” want big money, asking the federal
cancellations of conventions and oth- the bank noted. government for a $58 billion package

JOHN LUND/GETTY IMAGES

er major events and a rapidly expand- of grants and loans and relief from all
ing push for people to isolate them- THE AMERICAS excise taxes through 2021. President
selves as much as possible and work In the U.S., JP Morgan sees consoli- Donald Trump has signaled support
from home. But has the panic gone dation coming before a major airline for the idea.
too far? Investment bank JP Morgan failure. “Downturns have spurred “We’ll be backstopping the airlines

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 17

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

COVID-19 and Passenger Traffic

U.S. EU and the UK China

21.9% of global 25% of global 18% of global
passengers passengers passengers
Passenger Revenue: Passenger Revenue: Passenger Revenue:
$200 billion $169 billion $98 billion

Share in World Passenger

Revenues*

82% 12%
Countries with > 100 confirmed cases on March 15
4%
Countries with 10-100 confirmed cases on March 15
*Domestic and international travel, overlaps removed
Sources: IATA Economics and WHO Countries with < 10 confirmed on March 15

Source: IATA

and helping them very much,” Trump from Europe and the UK, over con- 757 fleet. Executives at Delta likewise
toldSource:
reporters
IATA at the White House cerns about the spread of COVID-19. have signaled a willingness to retire
briefing room hours after airlines pro- The sharp downturn in demand has the carrier’s last remaining MD-88s
posed the bailout through their lobby- caused bookings to plummet, with and MD-90s early, as well as some of
ing arm, Airlines for America (A4A). some carriers reporting cancellations its older 757s and 767s, as a result of
“We’re going to be in a position to help outpacing new bookings by more than the COVID-19 crisis.
the airlines very much.” a 2-to-1 ratio. “There is still significant Using financial data from its
The proposal, broken down by the uncertainty underlying assumptions, member airlines, A4A has modeled
Eno Center for Transportation, would but today’s context is much worse scenarios of airline liquidity levels
provide U.S. airlines with $29 billion than 9/11,” A4A said. through the end of the year absent
in immediate grants—including $4 Virtually all U.S. carriers are slash- government relief, depending on the
billion for cargo carriers—$29 bil- ing capacity, particularly on inter- accessibility of outside cash and cap-
lion in loans and loan guarantees and national routes. Delta Air Lines cut ital markets.
$7-10 billion in excise tax forgiveness. system-wide capacity by 70% and Under the optimistic scenario, with
That dwarfs the $10 billion in loan parked up to 600 aircraft across its ready access to financial markets,
guarantees the government made mainline and regional fleets. United U.S. carriers would see net liquidity
available after the Sept. 11, 2001, ter- Airlines has reduced its April sched- levels drop a combined 45% to $18
rorist attacks. Of that, just $1.2 billion ule by 60%, including a 42% reduction billion through the first six months of
was ever dispersed. in North American flying and an 85% the year, falling further to $16 billion
U.S. airports have asked for an decrease in international service. And by year-end.
additional $10 billion in immediate American Airlines reduced domestic Under the pessimistic scenario,
grants to help offset the massive drop schedules by 20% in April and 30% in without sufficient sources of cash,
in travel levels due to the COVID-19 May and suspended all but three in- A4A forecasts a 67% net drop in li-
pandemic. The Airport Council In- ternational routes. Domestic-oriented quidity levels for passenger carriers
ternational-North America estimates carriers, including Alaska Airlines, by June, to $12.8 billion, deepening
that U.S. airports will lose $8.7 billion JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines to a deficit of-$14 billion by year-
in 2020, a number a spokeswoman and Spirit Airlines, have all trimmed end. As of March 16, “the pessimistic
said is “likely to grow as the fun- schedules 20-40%. scenario is looking most likely,” the
damentals continue to erode.” The For some older, less-efficient air- trade group said. Should the Trump
group forecasts passenger traffic at craft, the groundings could be per- administration enact a rumored 30-
U.S. commercial airports will drop by manent. Cowen & Co. analyst Helane day domestic travel ban, the liquidi-
68% in the March-June period. Becker expects a “significant portion” ty crisis facing U.S. airlines would be
The requests for government aid of the aircraft being parked will re- even more severe.
come on the heels of a two-week main out of service after the crisis In Latin America, the largest com-
period that saw the position of U.S. subsides. American Airlines, for mercial carriers have suspended
carriers rapidly deteriorate following example, has effectively retired its nearly all international flying and
cascading worldwide travel bans, in- Boeing 767 fleet ahead of schedule, slashed domestic capacity as the fi-
cluding a White House ban on travel and has accelerated retirement of its nancial fallout from the COVID-19 cri-

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

sis reverberates. Chile-based LATAM port” as airlines cull schedules amid sion was ready to work with mem-
Airlines Group—the continent’s demand declines of 60% that are ber states to minimize permanent
largest by fleet size and passengers continuing to rise. “The scale of the layoffs and damage to the Europe-
flown—plans to reduce system-wide current industry crisis is much worse an aviation sector, by using the full
capacity by 70%, including a 90% cut and far more widespread than 9/11, flexibility of state aid rules to grant
to international flying. Rio de Janei- SARS or the 2008 global financial compensation to airlines under
ro-based Gol curtailed its schedule crisis,” IATA said. Article 107(2)(b) TFEU for damages
by 60-70%. Sao Paolo-based Azul will The European Commission (EC) suffered due to the COVID-19 out-
reduce capacity by 35-50% in April. has sent member states a draft of pro- break, even if they have received res-
Bogota-based Avianca cut service posed changes to state aid rules that cue aid in the last 10 years. “In other
30-40%. And Panama’s Copa Airlines would provide more flexibility to sup- words, the ‘one time last time’ princi-
expects to reduce capacity more than port companies hit by the pandemic, ple does not apply.”
80% in April “without ruling out the as airline groups called for more sup-
possibility of a complete, temporary port in the short term, as well as for CHINA
shutdown of its operations.” longer-term post-crisis recoveries. Airlines in China, where the pandemic
EC Executive Vice President broke out but is now easing, have been
EUROPE AND Margrethe Vestager said March 17 restoring domestic capacity since the
THE MIDDLE EAST that the commission wanted to ensure second half of February. They cau-
Most airlines in Europe are pulling businesses have the liquidity they tiously scheduled small increases in
back flying by at least 80%. Lufthan- need and that support for a business international services—before chang-
sa has grounded three subsidiaries— in one member state does not under- ing tack again in the second week of
Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines mine European unity. “We have to be March as the outbreak exploded in
and Air Dolomiti—and will cut ca- able to rely on the European single Europe and North America. China
pacity by 95%. Norwegian and SAS market, to help our economy weath- Eastern Airlines will reduce or sus-
Scandinavian Airlines are implement- er the outbreak, and bounce back pend flights on 11 European and North
ing temporary mass layoffs of most strongly afterward,” she said. American routes.
of their staff. Skeleton networks re- New temporary rules could include Chinese authorities are moving to
main in place, mostly for repatriation aid in the form of grants, guaranteed forbid international flights from land-
flights. Lufthansa Group will operate loans and subsidized interest rates ing directly in Beijing. Instead, they
propose, aircraft will
have to land in other
Seats in Europe and North America cities in Northern Chi-
January-March 2020 na, where passengers
will be given health
900 checks. If no sign of
the disease is found,
the aircraft may pro-
ceed to Beijing. If any-
Number of seats (thousands)

850
one aboard is afflicted,
the flight will go no
farther and the dan-
800 ger to public health
will be handled locally.
The policy was
supposed to begin on
750
March 18, but a day
later had not been
fully implemented,
700 having met some re-
sistance from inter-
mediate cities and
650
foreign airlines. It
evidently addresses
Jan. Jan. Feb. Feb. March
the rising problem
Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG
Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG
of imported cases of
COVID-19, a result of
only 30 daily flights from Frankfurt to companies hit by the sudden and the spread of the contagion outside
and 10 each from Munich plus three- dramatic drop in demand linked to of China and the scramble by the
times-weekly long-haul services to the travel and social restrictions Chinese to return to their homeland,
key destinations in Asia, Africa, Latin governments have put in place in a where the disease now appears to be
America and North America. bid to slow down the spread of the well-controlled.
For the Middle East, IATA is COVID-19 virus. Keeping COVID-19 controlled in
pleading for “urgent emergency sup- Vestager also said the commis- Beijing is particularly important to the

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 19

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

in February, and the

International Seats in Southeast Asia carrier has plans for
2017-January 2020 a cut of 65% in March
and as much as 90%
2017 2018 2019 2020 in April, leaving what
8
it describes as a “bare
skeleton” operation.
Australian and New
Number of seats (millions)

7 Zealand airlines are

also adopting a va-
riety of measures in
6 response to the dis-
solving demand. The
governments of both
5
countries have banned
foreign nationals from
4
entering and require
14-day quarantine pe-
riods for their own cit-
3 izens and permanent
Jan. April July Oct. Jan. residents if they arrive
from overseas.
Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG Qantas has made
major changes, sus-
government, and
Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and not
OAG just because the In Southeast Asia, some govern- pending all of the group’s scheduled
city is the capital. The authorities are ments are also effectively closing international flights from the end of
also considering when to hold the an- down international travel. In Malay- March through at least the end of
nual parliament session there, the dis- sia, for example, foreigners are barred May. Domestic capacity will be down
ruption of which by a renewed disease from entry, and Malaysian nationals by 60%.
outbreak would cause an intolerable are subject to a 14-day quarantine. The carrier will also stand down
loss of face to the Communist Party. Hong Kong is requiring travelers two-thirds of its 30,000 employees for
The airports to which international from all countries to undergo a com- the same period. They will be able to
flights are supposed to be redirected pulsory self-quarantine. use various leave programs, but some
are Hohhot, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan Airline capacity and traffic has will have to take unpaid leave.
and Tianjin. already plummeted at some of the CEO Alan Joyce notes that Qantas
region’s key hubs. Hong Kong Inter- has built up a strong financial position
ASIA-PACIFIC national Airport saw its internation- in recent years, which gives it some
Airlines and governments in the al seats drop by 82% from Jan. 27 breathing room. “A lot [of airlines] will
Asia-Pacific region are implementing to March 16, according to data from go under, but Qantas will not be one
a range of measures as they scramble CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG. of them,” he says.
to adjust to sharp drops in passenger For Singapore’s Changi Airport, the Virgin Australia is suspending all
traffic. decline over the same period was 40%. of its international operations from
South Korea was one of the mar- Singapore Airlines has cut 50% of March 30 to June 14, and 50% of its
kets hardest hit, since at one point it its capacity through the end of April domestic capacity. This will entail
had the highest number of COVID-19 and has indicated that further reduc- the grounding of 53 aircraft. Virgin
cases outside China. However, Seoul tions are to be expected. “We have lost is less exposed to the international
appears to have slowed the spread of a large amount of our traffic in a very market than Qantas, with 78% of Vir-
the virus, and now the focus has shift- short time, and it will not be viable for gin’s flight revenue coming from the
ed to the growing outbreak in Europe. us to maintain our current network,” domestic sector.
The country was one of the earliest says CEO Goh Choon Phong. “Make The Australian government un-
markets outside China to be affected no mistake—we expect the pace of veiled an aviation support package
by travel restrictions imposed by oth- this deterioration to accelerate [and worth A$715 million ($415 million)
er countries due to COVID-19. Korean the group] must be prepared for a that includes waivers and refunds for
Air had suspended 89 of its 124 inter- prolonged period of difficulty.” fuel excise taxes, domestic air traffic
national routes as of March 13, and Cathay Pacific has been severely control fees and domestic aviation se-
international flights were down 86%. affected by the restrictions in Hong curity charges.
Taiwan imposed new travel restric- Kong and elsewhere in the world. Air New Zealand plans to cut long-
tions effective March 19, barring al- The airline’s traffic was down 54% haul capacity by 85% in the coming
most all foreign nationals from entry year-over-year in February, with load months, with capacity on its Austra-
and requiring a 14-day quarantine for factor dropping 29 points to 53%. lian routes down 80% and domestic
all passengers. The government is re- This resulted in a loss of HK$2 bil- flying reduced by 30%. The airline
portedly offering loans and subsidies lion ($257.5 million) for that month estimates it will need to reduce its
to help local airlines. alone. Passenger capacity fell 29% workforce of 12,500 by up to 30%. c

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

Aerospace Manufacturing After nies have almost universally suffered
double-digit stock price declines and
COVID-19 Will Be Different are looking to get ahead of the down-
turn;
> OEMs SEEK GOVERNMENT AID IN WORST CRISIS IN A GENERATION ■ Analysts and executives foresee a
20% or greater drop in commercial
> AEROSPACE BUSINESS LIKELY TO SEE LONG-TERM RECASTING aftermarket revenue; and
■ Some number of smaller suppli-
Michael Bruno Washington, Jens Flottau Frankfurt and ers—already stretched thin with less
Thierry Dubois Lyon, France
working capital from years of OEM-
led squeezes—are expected to go out

T
he aerospace manufacturing and restructuring on March 18. Finally, of business.
industry has awakened to a Textron Aviation also announced it “It concerns me how many small
nightmare. Already reeling furloughed workers for a month. suppliers will be able to withstand this
from the Boeing 737 MAX grounding Cameron Doerksen, an analyst at downturn from a cash perspective,”
and shutdown, as well as narrowbody National Bank of Canada Financial one mid-tier executive says. “Cash is
manufacturing issues at Airbus and Markets, says the COVID-19 pan- king in this environment here.”
softening widebody production across demic “represents a clear threat to But first may come relief for Boeing,
the board, the COVID-19 virus now is the sustainability of the current aero- the world’s largest aerospace and de-
crippling worldwide air travel, the rai- space cycle.” fense conglomerate. “I think we have
son d’etre for making airliners. AlixPartners Aerospace and De- to protect Boeing,” President Donald
Although aircraft manufacturers fense Managing Director Eric Bernar- Trump said on March 17 upon news of
and suppliers initially believed they dini warns of worse. “This downturn the OEM’s bailout bid.
were insulated from the worst of the will likely go deeper and last longer,” Credit analysts understand why.
outbreak’s effects—because their he writes. S&P Global Ratings now believes
business moves more slowly and the “All aero bets are off,” echo Robert Boeing’s free cash outflow will hit $11-
long-term air traffic growth theory Stallard and Karl Oehlschlaeger of 12 billion this year before turning to an
still is seen as valid—the industry is Vertical Research Partners. “Suffice inflow of $13-14 billion in 2021, down
quickly learning it is not a question of it to say that aero suppliers are going from $22 billion. The “much weaker”
“if” but “when” it too will suffer. to take it on the chin.” cash flow forecast led analysts there
Governments from Asia to Amer- The latest developments stand in to downgrade Boeing’s credit from A
ica have told their residents to stay stark opposition to public comments levels to BBB. Fitch Ratings also is
home, literally. Borders have been offered just weeks ago from industry leaning toward downgrading.
shut. Financial analysts see a global leaders who said they did not expect “Boeing enters this aerospace
recession beginning. Airline failures much impact from the coronavirus downcycle already wounded by MAX,
are expected (see page 16). crisis. While industry executives and and the question has started to be
In turn, aircraft order delays and advisors say it could take 1-2 quarters raised as to whether it can survive,”
cancellations already are happening, for the effects to hit their bottom lines, the Vertical analysts note. “Ultimately,
according to the International Air now they believe they must get ahead we think the U.S. government will take
Transport Association. Financial an- of the gathering downturn. the view that Boeing is too big to fail,
alysts are paring back expected de- “It looks like we’re the last to get but that could provide little comfort to
livery forecasts this year from major the memo,” the division chief of one equity investors.”
OEMs. Manufacturers and suppliers, major supplier tells Aviation Week. Boeing’s bailout bid leads those
meanwhile, are wondering whether to “Bottomline is it’s changing every day. from airlines, airports or mainte-
shut down their factories to help stop It’s getting worse by the day. “When it nance, repair and overhaul represen-
the spread of COVID-19 or will do it comes back, it’s going to come back tatives. “This will be one of the most
anyway because orders will be delayed differently.” important ways for airlines, airports,
or canceled. None have announced Jefferies analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu suppliers and manufacturers to bridge
such moves yet, but several have and Greg Konrad cut their long-term to recovery,” Boeing says. “Funds would
confirmed to Aviation Week they are narrowbody production forecast to support the health of the broader avi-
reviewing business continuity plans. a 3% compound annual growth rate ation industry, because much of any
Still, industry titans are moving to from 5%, matching their widebody liquidity support to Boeing will be used
get ahead of the issue. Boeing, on expectation of 3%. According to sev- for payments to suppliers to maintain
March 17, sought a $60 billion-plus eral analysts, advisors and executives: the health of the supply chain.”
bailout from the U.S. government for ■ Widebody-related work is expected Boeing asserts the long-term out-
itself and ostensibly its supply chain, to ratchet down far further, although look for the aerospace industry “is
and the Chicago company recently all aircraft manufacturing will see still strong, but until global passenger
drew down the entirety of its new some degree of downturn; traffic resumes to normal levels, these
credit line of nearly $14 billion. The ■ Narrowbody order delays and can- measures are needed to manage the
same day, Airbus shuttered produc- cellations will climb; pressure on the aviation sector and
tion in France and Spain for four days. ■ Aerostructures providers are seen the economy as a whole.”
Triumph Group announced a fresh as the most vulnerable sector; Analysts are less sure versus
round of significant workforce cuts ■ Publicly traded aerospace compa- just weeks ago. “Even before the

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 21

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Airliner
AirlinerOrder
OrderCancellations
Cancellations
asas
Percentage
PercentageofofDeliveries
Deliveriesand
andOrders,
Orders, 2000-20
2000-20
60%
60%

50%50% Cancellations percent of deliveries

Cancellations percent of deliveries
Percent of Cancellations

Cancellations percent of delivery average 2000-19 = 18.7%

Percent of Cancellations

Cancellations percent of delivery average 2000-19 = 18.7%

Cancellations percent
Cancellations of orders
percent of orders
40%40% Cancellations percent
Cancellations of orders
percent average
of orders 2000-19
average = 12.6%
2000-19 = 12.6%

30%30%

20%20%

10%10%

0% 0%
20002000 2002
2002 2004
2004 2006
2006 2008
2008 2010
2010 2012
2012 2014
2014 2016
2016 2018
2018 2020
2020
to March 12
to March 12
Source: Jefferies

COVID-19 crisis, demand for new to prepare for a massive, multiyear finance and customer relations. The
aircraft had been softening,” Doerk- downturn that will see it get back to crisis group was first set up in the
sen says. “We
Source: attribute this partly to
Jefferies previous production volumes only 2008-09 global financial crisis and
Source: Jefferies
the very strong order activity in prior past 2027 because much of its current was primarily tasked with managing
years and the very long backlogs at backlog is disappearing as a result of the multiple requests for deferrals and
Airbus and Boeing.” deferrals and cancellations made by financing.
Moreover, if airlines ratchet back airlines and lessors trying to deal Indeed, business continuity is
on capacity growth and there are with the coronavirus crisis, analysts perhaps the biggest challenge of all.
airline failures, he thinks there will at Agency Partners forecast. Industry remains almost singularly
not only be lower-order activity but Production rates will be “cut in- convinced that the long-term outlook
also deferrals of existing orders. Al- creasingly rapidly through 2020 and still is positive, based on rising middle
most 30% of Airbus’ backlog is in the 2021,” Agency Partners writes in a classes worldwide that want to travel
Asia-Pacific region, according to the note to clients. “This will, in our view, for leisure.
analyst, where most airlines have expose the company to negative op- “We know this situation will come
been hard hit by the crisis. Boeing erational gearing, with the A330 and to an end at some point; therefore, we
has 25% of its backlog from airlines A350 both likely to fall into loss in are in a stop-and-go situation, which
in Southeast Asia. 2021 and the A320neo profits halving.” is very difficult to manage in manufac-
“We are also concerned about orders Given that it is difficult for airlines to turing—especially for a complex prod-
from lessors, because if there is now defer aircraft at very short notice, uct with an intense production rate,”
an oversupply of aircraft in the market Airbus might still deliver a substan- says Jerome Bouchard, aerospace
and if airline failures accelerate, lessors tial portion of its targeted deliveries, partner with Oliver Wyman.
will not need many of the aircraft they albeit needing very substantial sales But the further a supplier is from
have on order in the short-to-medium financing, the analysts say. “But 2021 the OEM, such as Tier 2 or 3, the
term,” Doerksen adds. will see an unmoderated downturn” smaller it is and the more it specializes
Without identifying any bailout with both Airbus Commercial and the in a product. Therefore, for lower-tier
bid, Aerospace Industries Associa- group making losses. Airbus could see suppliers, questions should be raised
tion President and CEO Eric Fanning a cash outflow of more than €18 bil- about survivability, Bouchard says.
says government action is necessary. lion ($19.4 billion) between now and Longer term, industry likely will
“Few industries are more inextrica- the end of 2022. come to believe as a whole that man-
bly linked to our nation’s continued Airbus sources tell Aviation Week ufacturing and supply activities have
success and global competitiveness that leadership is making “business been offshored to an excessive extent
than aerospace and defense,” he says. continuity” its highest priority and to cheaper, remote labor markets,
“Right now, extraordinary challenges is trying to avoid a complete tempo- Bouchard explains. When a wave of
to our workforce and our heavily in- rary stop, because a ramp-up from repatriation of the supply chain comes,
tegrated supply chain are reverberat- zero would be extremely challenging, France’s Tier 2 and 3 suppliers will bet-
ing across America’s industrial base, considering all the implications for ter be able to make the most of it.
which in turn is having a major and suppliers. Airbus also has reinstated The same could be said of OEMs
measurable impact on our economy.” a group called “watchtower,” made and suppliers everywhere, as it might
Across the Atlantic, Airbus has up of representatives of production, be the only upshot of this crisis. c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

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COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Emirates Airline says it sends deep-cleaning teams to disinfect

aircraft cabins before departures from Dubai.

EMIRATES PHOTOS

COVID-19 Outbreak Ushers In New all its flights, both during the day and
after the completion of flights at night.”
Cabin-Cleaning Techniques The airline adds that it has established
a process to work with “a specialized
disinfection company in cases where a
> AS COVID-19 SPREADS, AIRLINES TAKE STRINGENT
possible affected passenger is report-
CABIN DISINFECTION MEASURES ed” by health authorities.
In the U.S., Delta Air Lines and Unit-
> IATA MIGHT ADJUST EXISTING CLEANLINESS GUIDELINES
ed Airlines both issued statements via
Kerry Reals London Twitter on March 6, linking to infor-
mation on how they are stepping up

A
ircraft cabin-cleaning guid- passenger numbers indicate that the cleaning procedures. Delta says it has
ance could be revised in light traveling public remains unconvinced. “doubled down on its regular cleaning
of the ongoing global COVID-19 In a move to reassure passengers, a program” and has added a fogging
outbreak, as airlines scramble to con- number of airlines have made public process “to disinfect transoceanic air-
vince nervous passengers that flying statements in recent days emphasizing craft interiors.” The process is more
is still safe despite plummeting air the cleanliness of their aircraft cabins; commonly used by the food industry.
travel demand. for instance, in a YouTube video posted “As transoceanic flights come in, fog-
At an International Air Transport by Emirates Airline on March 8, the ging takes place after an initial clean-
Association (IATA) workshop in Sin- Dubai-based carrier says it is “working ing, this time with tray tables lowered
gapore in early March, during which round the clock to ensure our aircraft and overhead bins and lavatory doors
existing recommendations on cleaning cabins are the cleanest in the skies.” open. Seatback entertainment touch
and disinfecting aircraft cabins were Emirates says in the video that 248 screens are given an extra cleanse
discussed, members suggested the of its aircraft are deep-cleaned every using disinfectant wipes,” Delta adds.
possibility of “reviewing and/or stan- day before departing Dubai. It adds: United says that in addition to thor-
dardizing routine cleaning guidelines “All our aircraft now undergo extensive, oughly wiping down hard surfaces such
for aircraft,” the industry body says. deep cabin-cleaning and disinfection— as tray tables, window shades and arm-
While IATA has determined that from windows, armrests, tray tables rests with a “high-grade disinfectant”
its existing guidelines “remain ap- and TV screens to bassinets, lavato- and undertaking a “full decontamina-
propriate,” it says that “some minor ries and common areas.” In the case of tion process” for aircraft with suspect-
adjustments [are] possible.” The trade aircraft with a suspected or confirmed ed coronavirus cases on board, it will
group stresses that so far during the case of COVID-19 on board, Emirates soon start using “an electrostatic fogger
COVID-19 outbreak—which now affects follows enhanced cleaning protocols, to disinfect the air and surfaces within
more than 100 countries—“we have whereby cabins are “defogged and the cabin on all international arrivals
not seen evidence of [the virus spread- misted with special disinfectant.” into our U.S. hubs, Honolulu and Guam.”
ing] during air travel, either in air- Greek carrier Aegean Airlines Airlines are also starting to look
ports or on aircraft.” However, IATA’s states that it has “amplified standard at specialized cleaning companies,
forecasts of double-digit drops in aircraft-cleaning procedures between whose usual customers include cruise

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

lines, food-processing companies and craft cabins very soon, and there is a ing the coronavirus headlines.
the hospitality sector, to see if their long list of [airline] inquiries that we’re “A global crisis like we see today
products could be applied to aviation. in dialog [about] now,” Luscher says. certainly raises the awareness among
One such company, Denmark-based “We would be able to apply [the coat- passengers on hygienic topics while
ACT.Global, has seen “a massive ing] more or less immediately after an traveling,” Hiller says. “People have a
spike” in inquiries from airlines about operator [receives approval to use it].” need to feel safe and secure, and our
how its Premium Purity cleaning sys- The product takes about 4 hr. to apply. products cater for this very personal
tem could be used to disinfect aircraft Challenges unique to aircraft cabins, need. We expect the solution we offer
cabins, Chief Technical Officer Chris- however, could limit the effectiveness will become more important for airlines
topher Luscher tells Aviation Week. of the system. “The issue with aircraft around the globe and will add to the
The system works by applying a is it’s a tight space with dimmed light, overall value proposition of the airline.”
transparent, odorless coating to all so there are still times when you have Passengers are not the only ones con-
surfaces. When the coating is exposed risk profiles,” Luscher admits. cerned about safety. The Association of
to ambient lighting, a photocatalytic Nonetheless, ACT.Global is “pitch- Flight Attendants (AFA) is pressing air-
reaction takes place that, the company ing to airlines” to consider apply- lines to provide “proper resources and
says, causes harmful microbes such as ing the coating to “primary contact procedures to mitigate risk to working
bacteria and viruses—including the points” such as aircraft lavatories in crews.” The union’s recommendations
coronavirus that causes COVID-19— the first instance, although the system include encouraging passengers and
to decompose. The process “acceler- can also be applied to seats, tray tables crew to avoid travel while sick by re-
ates the natural aging of microbes,” and other surfaces within the cabin. moving penalties for altering plans or
Luscher says. Four years ago, Boeing unveiled a work schedules and covering all medical
The coating is effective for 12 self-cleaning lavatory concept that costs and lost wages for aviation work-
months, although ACT.Global also rec- uses ultraviolet light between each ers who are exposed during their work.
ommends daily cleaning between the use “to destroy all known microbes.” Airlines “have not fully implemented
annual coatings because spillages and The airframer says it tested what it the recommendations,” the AFA says,
dust buildups can form a barrier be- now calls the Fresh Lav on the 777 but managers “have taken actions
tween the lighting and the coating, re- ecoDemostrator in 2019. Its integra- that exceed CDC [Centers for Disease
ducing its effectiveness. The company tion into “the cabin of the future will Control and Prevention] guidelines and
has developed a water-and-salt-based be paced by market interest and tech- instruction.” The CDC’s recommenda-
cleaning product for this purpose that, nology development,” Boeing adds. tions for cabin crew include frequent
it says, can be used without protective Market interest for such products handwashing with soap and water for
gloves or masks because it “replaces could increase on the back of the at least 20 sec., the use of alcohol-based
strong chemicals and disinfectants.” COVID-19 crisis. Aircraft seats manu- hand sanitizer with an alcohol content
For airlines with short turnarounds, facturer Recaro is preparing for an “in- of at least 60% when soap and water
Luscher acknowledges that cleaning flux of requests” for a self-cleaning seat are not available, the separation of sick
protocols would “need to be balanced” it has developed, CEO Mark Hiller tells travelers by a distance of 6 ft. (2 m), and
with the amount of time available be- Aviation Week. “As of now, this hasn’t the wearing of medical gloves when
tween flights. He cautions, however, happened. Nevertheless, we expect helping a sick passenger or touching
that if one airline passenger is infected an increased demand for antibacteri- potentially contaminated surfaces.
with the coronavirus, then the aircraft al materials as soon as the travel bans It is not yet known how long the
cabin “effectively becomes an incuba- decrease,” Hiller says. COVID-19 virus will continue to spread
tor where the virus can spread from Recaro has designed a “nano coat- before tapering off. What is clear is that
passenger to passenger.” Viruses can ing” that it says provides long-lasting it is not the first virus to affect demand
live on surfaces for an average of 4-5 antibacterial protection for aircraft for air travel, and it probably will not be
days, sometimes longer, he adds, so if seats. “The coating cannot be recog- the last, as the airline industry knows
an infected passenger sneezes near a nized by passengers. It contains an only too well after having suffered the
hard surface, “small droplets will per- antibacterial active substance and can effects of the Severe Acute Respira-
sist for a number of days.” be applied on almost all seat compo- tory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic of
The World Health Organization nents that have direct contact with the 2003 and 2009’s swine flu outbreak.
(WHO) says on its website that al- passenger,” Hiller says, adding that the “Other [viruses] will occur over and
though “it is not certain how long the coating can “reduce costs and optimize over again, and they will mutate and
virus that causes COVID-19 survives on cleaning procedures for airlines.” jump species,” Luscher says, adding
surfaces,” it seems to behave like oth- Because COVID-19 is a viral rather that the COVID-19 outbreak—which
er coronaviruses. “Studies suggest that than a bacterial infection, however, has already affected thousands more
coronaviruses (including preliminary Recaro cannot claim its effectiveness people than SARS—could usher in
information on the COVID-19 virus) against the coronavirus. “In order to more stringent aircraft cabin-clean-
may persist on surfaces for a few hours state that this coating type is effec- ing regulations.
or up to several days,” the WHO states. tive against [COVID-19], we would “I would imagine the airline industry
Luscher admits that the airline need to test the virus SARS-CoV-2, would be forced to have better hygiene
industry was “not our intended seg- which is not the case yet,” Hiller says. protocols in lavatories and food-han-
ment” but says the COVID-19 outbreak Nevertheless, he believes general hy- dling areas,” he says. “For the cabin it-
“has illuminated an issue.” giene and cleanliness will be at the self, [disinfection rules] are more likely
“We’re working on getting into air- forefront of passengers’ minds follow- to be recommended than enforced.” c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 25

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Ethiopian MAX Crash Report were given additional information or

new procedures related to the MCAS.
Deflects Attention From Pilots’ Role The interim document also does not
dig into several other areas that usual-
> FOCUS IS ON FAILURES OF MAX FLIGHT CONTROL SYSTEM ly interest investigators and often end
up in accident reports. Information on
> FLIGHT CREW PERFORMANCE IS NOT ADDRESSED the crew’s training history is limited to
basic facts, such as dates of when type
Sean Broderick Washington ratings were earned and proficiency
checks completed. There are no spe-

T
he Ethiopian Accident Investi- two key differences between the JT610 cifics on how each pilot performed.
gation Bureau’s interim report and ET302 accidents: The Lion Air Similarly, details on the airline’s
on what happened to Ethiopian crew had no idea the MCAS existed, flight-training program are limited to
Airlines Flight 302 points to mistakes but the ET302 crew apparently did. its academy’s capabilities. Absent from
Boeing and the FAA made in design- The bureau’s report says the govern- the report is any discussion about the
ing and certifying the Boeing 737 MAX ment-owned airline revised its MAX carrier’s standard operating proce-
and to deficiencies in recommended flight manuals on the day the directive dures or its 737-specific curriculum—
pilot training as the primary factors was released. Many carriers and pilot information that investigators often
in the accident sequence. The report
offers little insight into flight crew ac-
tions or training, signaling that inves- Wiring modifications are now among the fixes
tigators do not see pilot performance Boeing must make before the MAX can fly again.
as a factor in the disaster.
Released March 9, a day before the
one-year anniversary of the Ethiopian
Airlines Flight 302 (ET302) accident,
the 136-page report says all analysis
will be included in a final version. The
facts laid out dive deeply into the 737
MAX’s Maneuvering Characteristics
Augmentation System (MCAS) flight
control law, which provides automatic
horizontal stabilizer input in certain
flaps-up, manual flight profiles.
The MCAS is at the center of the
crash of ET302 and that of Lion Air
Flight 610 (JT610) in October 2018.
In both accidents, the MCAS was ac-
tivated by erroneous data from one of
the MAX’s two angle-of-attack (AOA)
sensors, triggering a series of unneed-
ed, automatic nose-down inputs that
confused and ultimately overwhelmed
the crews.
The MCAS’ existence became wide-
ly known following the JT610 accident.
The FAA issued an emergency air- work groups issued detailed memos on use to frame facts detailed in the re-
worthiness directive in early Novem- the MCAS to their pilots following Boe- port or highlight deviations.
ber 2019 that explained the system’s ing’s revelation that the system existed One key observation made in the pre-
function and failure modes but did not and was linked to JT610. Some airlines liminary report released a month after
use the MCAS name. Boeing quickly modified their preflight briefings and the accident is not revisited in the more
followed up with an airline operators’ added information from the directive, detailed interim report. Among the find-
message that referenced the MCAS such as the signs of an AOA failure and ings in the April 2019 initial update on
specifically, introducing it to most pi- a reminder to follow appropriate check- the probe: The crew “performed run-
lots for the first time. lists, including “stabilizer runaway.” away stabilizer checklist” during their
While the first accident was enough This helped clarify a key and ultimate- troubleshooting but could move the sta-
to prompt Boeing to start work on ly wrong assumption Boeing had made bilizer with the manual trim wheel. The
changing the MCAS software—part during the MAX’s development: Pilots new report confirms the stabilizer-trim
of a series of MAX updates that are would quickly diagnose an uncommand- cutout switches were toggled, and the
still not finalized—the system was not ed MCAS activation as runaway stabi- pilots attempted to use the manual trim
thrust into the spotlight until after the lizer and therefore did not need details wheel. But the report does not discuss
ET302 accident. Existence of the FAA on how the system worked. The report any checklists nor offer evidence that
directive and the Boeing message are does not say whether Ethiopian’s crews the pilots referenced them.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 The ET302 crew’s reactions to the pilots retracted the flaps. The MCAS still receiving the faulty AOA data—to
MCAS activation included pulling trimmed the stabilizer nose-down activate again. The ET302 crew ini-
back on their control yokes and using from 4.6 units to 2.1 units. The crew re- tially was able to climb but could not
yoke-mounted electric-trim switch in- sponded with 2 sec. of column-mount- counter the MCAS nose-down inputs.
puts to counter the automatic stabiliz- ed manual electric-trim inputs, moving The aircraft pitched over, sped up and
er nose-down commands. But the pilots the stabilizer to 2.4 units. impacted the terrain, killing all 149
did not counter all the MCAS input. The Five seconds after the crew stopped passengers and eight crew members.
faulty AOA data continued to trigger the its trim inputs, the MCAS—still sens- Stabilizer trim components recovered
automatic pitch-adjustment function, ing the faulty AOA data—activated at the crash site show the stabilizer’s
and the aircraft became more out of again. The stabilizer moved to 0.4 final position was 2.5 units, or 1.5 deg.
trim and harder to keep from descend- units in 6 sec. before the crew inter- aircraft nose-down.
ing as the 6-min. flight progressed. rupted it with 9 sec. of electric-trim in- The ministry’s report makes clear
The 737 stabilizer positions range put, moving the stabilizer to 2.3 units. that faulty AOA data started the fatal
from 0 trim units aircraft nose-down After the second MCAS activation, accident sequence because the MAX’s
to 17 units nose-up, with 4 being neu- the crew toggled stabilizer-trim cut- flight control computer software de-
tral. These correspond to a range from out switches, which prevented the tected, erroneously, that the aircraft’s
4.2 deg. nose-down to 12.9 deg. nose-up. trim motor from moving the stabi- nose was too high. That activated the
When ET302 departed, the stabiliz- lizer but also left pilots with only the MCAS and the series of nose-down
hand-operated trim wheel to move the stabilizer movements. Boeing’s MAX
flight-control surface. training, which did not cover the MCAS
Aerodynamic forces created during a system, “was found to be inadequate.”
runaway-stabilizer scenario can render The failed JT610 AOA sensor re-
the trim wheel, mounted between the sulted from a supplier’s improper cal-
pilots on the center pedestal, nearly im- ibration. The Ethiopian report does
possible to crank. If one pilot is pulling not say why ET302’s vane failed.
back on the yoke—a natural reaction to Also absent from the report: a cock-
counteract uncommanded nose-down pit voice recorder (CVR) transcript or
inputs—the force on the elevator, part synopsis that would add context to the
of the horizontal stabilizer, increases. pilots’ actions. CVR conversation could
This makes the stabilizer harder to help explain whether the captain cross-
move. Add in an airspeed increase that checked his instruments with the first
a nose-down attitude introduces, and officer’s when the single stick-shaker ac-
the situation becomes more difficult. tivated, or why the crew did not reduce
This is what the ET302 crew faced. the aircraft’s engine power settings.
When the pilots attempted to adjust The accident investigation bureau,
the stabilizer manually, the mis-trim was part of Ethiopia’s transport ministry,
2.5 units, the report says. The aircraft’s provided draft copies of the interim re-
airspeed—its thrust levers still where port to U.S. parties participating in the
they were at takeoff—soon exceeded probe, including the FAA and NTSB,
its maximum 340 kt. This triggered an less than a week before it was publicly
overspeed “clacker,” or alert, that was released. The draft report had included
active for the flight’s final 2 min. 30 sec. a probable cause, sources familiar with
“By the time the [first officer] tried its contents confirmed. The bureau’s
to move the trim wheel manually, a conclusion: The MCAS caused the ac-
force between 42-53 lb. was required cident. Pushback from parties arguing
SEAN BRODERICK/AW&ST
according to the aircraft manufacturer in part that an incomplete investigation
er was at 5.6 units, “a consistent set- computation,” the report says. Inves- cannot have a conclusion led to the
ting for the takeoff,” the report says. tigators determined that the ET302 probable cause’s removal.
“During takeoff roll, the engines stabi- crew would have needed 40 turns of The FAA says it is “important to have
lized at about 94% N1,” or low-pressure the wheel to correct the 2.5 trim units. the full final report to evaluate it against
compressor rotation speed. “From this Simulator trials done as part of the other independent reports so that we
point for most of the flight, the N1 ref- probe found that difficulty in turning might fully understand all of the fac-
erence remained about 94%.” the wheel increased as airspeed and tors—both mechanical and human—
Shortly after the 737-8 lifted off amount of mis-trim increased. Inves- that played a role” in the accident.
from Addis Ababa Bole International tigators concluded the trim wheel was Boeing is working to finalize changes
Airport Runway 07R, the aircraft’s “not movable” at airspeeds higher to the MAX, including MCAS revi-
left-side AOA value began to fluctuate than 220 kt. and mis-trim values of 2.5 sions and updated training. It also will
wildly. “As a result of the erroneous units or more, the report says. reroute stabilizer motor power wires
left AOA value, the left [captain’s] stick Unable to crank the trim wheel, the on all stored MAXs to bring them into
shaker activated,” the report says. It ET302 crew toggled cutout switches regulatory compliance before they are
remained active throughout the flight. back to “normal,” which the run- delivered. Boeing is quietly optimis-
The faulty AOA data set the stage away-stabilizer checklist says should tic that the FAA’s approval will come
for the MCAS to activate once ET302’s not be done. This set up the MCAS— around midyear. c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 27

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Britain’s EASA Exit Decision Is Built “comprehensive plans” to prepare for

a possible departure from EASA. The
on Ideology Rather Than Pragmatism agency also said it plans to be ready to
take on State of Design responsibilities
again, which had previously been dele-
> UK WILL LEAVE EASA ON DEC. 31 gated to EASA in 2003.
> CAA IS BEGINNING RECRUITMENT DRIVE FOR NEW ROLE “As part of our planning, we have
already recruited full-time employees
in positions across the CAA.” a CAA
Tony Osborne London, Bill Carey Washington, Thierry Dubois Lyon spokesman said. “We will continue
and Jens Flottau Frankfurt to refine these plans over the com-
ing months, which may

E
ver since Brexit became a pos- to go it alone in just nine require additional staff,

BILL CAREY/AW&ST
sibility, aerospace has warned months’ time. including in the areas of
that remaining a member of The CAA’s public state- State of Design.”
the European Union Aviation Safety ments on Brexit, includ- The CAA also con-
Agency (EASA) would be critical to ing one on its website, say firmed it has been work-
keeping industry competitive and free the “most positive out- ing with the Department
of disruption. come” for UK consumers for Transport to incor-
However, with the British govern- and the aviation industry porate all current EU
ment planning a clean break from would be “continued par- aviation law into UK do-
the European regulator at the end of ticipation” in EASA. mestic law “so that there
2020—the end of the Brexit transi- “In our opinion, the will be no immediate
tion period—those warnings appear CAA does not have the change to the regulatory
to have fallen on deaf ears. expertise required to UK Transport Secretary framework at the end of
The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority operate as a world-class Grant Shapps the transition period.” It
(CAA) will take over responsibility safety and technical continued: “We will work
for aircraft certification and regula- regulator,” said a strongly worded with the government and the industry
tion from EASA, British Transport statement from International Airlines on any changes to the framework after
Secretary Grant Shapps told Aviation Group (IAG), the owner of UK flag car- this point.”
Week editors in Washington on March rier British Airways. The CAA would EASA said it is “well prepared for
7. However, the decision appears to be need “fundamental restructuring from the departure of the UK” because the
built on political ideology rather than top to bottom,” IAG said. “There is no agency put measures in place in case
the benefits it provides to industry. way that it can be done by Dec. 31.” of a hard Brexit before the withdrawal
Like Brexit—which was about set- Shapps also appears to admit the agreement was signed, officials say.
tling long-running divisions in the rul- CAA may not be ready straightaway. Since EASA’s formation in 2002, the
ing Conservative Party but ultimately “The expertise will need to come home UK has been one of the leading lights in
divided a country—a break with EASA to do that, but we’ll do it in a gradual the creation of the organization. Much
comes from the British government’s way,” he says. of the agency’s legislation and regula-
refusal to accept any role by the Court The CAA confirmed it has made tions have been developed from that
of Justice of the European Union
(CJEU). The court is the ultimate ar- The UK Civil Aviation Authority last year relocated its headquarters from Central
biter of EASA rulings. “We can’t be London to Aviation House (pictured) in Crawley, England, near Gatwick Airport.
subject to the rules and laws made by
CAA

somebody else,” Shapps says.

Yet these issues are not a problem
for countries such as Norway and
Switzerland, both sovereign states
that are full EASA members outside
the European Union.
Giving EASA oversight the chop
was always an option for post-Brexit
Britain and would have been the de-
fault had the UK fallen out of the EU
without a deal.
But in what appears to be a micro-
cosm of Brexit, albeit with stronger
support to remain, an EASA exit goes
against the advice of Britain’s £36 bil-
lion ($46.6 billion) aerospace and de-
fense industry and even the regulator.
On top of that, there are questions
about whether the CAA will be ready

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

written by the CAA. But since Brexit assumptions, several aerospace com- tory cooperation between the CAA and
took place Jan.31, the UK has become panies told Aviation Week. EASA. “The BASA should be in line
a third country in the EASA ranks—in UK-based suppliers producing parts with existing EU precedent for cooper-
other words, a country outside of the for an EASA-certified aircraft will ative aviation safety arrangements with
EU member states, making it a rule have to keep their EASA approvals to third countries,” the document states.
taker and no longer a rule-maker. produce those parts. CAA approvals Shapps believes the clean break
By creating its own regulatory sys- will be an additional cost. “The result from EASA will allow a strengthened
tem, the British government will be is just additional red tape,” says Je- CAA to become more forward-looking
“incurring substantial costs to build up rome Bouchard, aerospace partner at and supportive of technology develop-
the capabilities of the CAA to match Oliver Wyman. It remains to be seen ments for electric propulsion and ur-
the standards required for recognition whether products delivered in the UK ban air mobility. “We’ll make sure our
by EASA and the FAA in the U.S.,” said will need an extra certification. legislative framework is in a great place
Paul Everitt, CEO of the ADS Group, “We hope for a bilateral agreement to enable those kinds of organizations
a UK aerospace, defense, security and that would allow us to deliver our prod- to excel in the UK market,” he says.
space trade association. ADS has been ucts with an EASA or FAA certificate,” “The UK CAA may create relatively
vocal about the UK maintaining regu- says Muriel Menudier, Safran’s senior flexible rules for the country’s industry
latory alignment with Europe and had manager of aviation safety and regula- to benefit from,” Bouchard suggests.
been receiving positive noises from tions. “This will be part of the outcome But the UK’s electric vertical-take-
government about continued mem- of the ongoing negotiation [between off-and-landing industry has yet to
bership of the agency. the European Commission and the UK prove it is competitive, while the mar-
ADS has previously suggested that government], but the deadline is close.” ket is embryonic, he adds.
handing EASA’s responsibilities to the A spokesman for Boeing said: Bouchard also notes that the trend
CAA could take up to 10 years and cost “Maintaining a high degree of freedom for certification rules is to become
up to £40 million annually to create a of movement for aerospace goods and stricter, not more flexible, particularly
UK safety authority with all the exper- closely aligned regulatory coopera- considering the Boeing 737 MAX crisis.
tise of EASA and the FAA, against cur- tion post-Brexit are important to the ADS points out that the companies
rent annual UK contributions to the growth and competitiveness of Euro- taking steps toward greener aviation
agency of £1-4 million. “[The govern- pean industry and the safety of Euro- “are clear that EASA is the best option
ment] will be gambling that companies pean citizens.” for the UK.”
can absorb the additional costs and So far, the British government has “Participation in EASA has already
complications created by regulatory been careful to skirt the subject of an contributed to ever-improving safety
divergence without an impact on their EASA exit since the UK’s EU mem- standards in aviation, given us influ-
future investment in the UK and that bership referendum in June 2016. The ence in one of the two major global
[the] disruption will have no impact on most recent document about the UK’s regulators and eased access to our
safety,” Everitt warned. approach to negotiating a future rela- export markets—not just in Europe
Industry has some time to prepare. tionship with Europe calls for the estab- but around the world,” Everitt said.
Companies that had already prepared lishment of a Bilateral Aviation Safety Leaving EASA, on the other hand, “is a
for a no-deal Brexit during 2019 had Agreement (BASA) that recognizes gamble with much at stake but without
an EASA exit in their basic planning aviation safety standards and regula- any clear prize on offer,” he noted. c

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AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 29

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

UK Regions Could Suffer committed in January 2020, along-

side a time-to-pay arrangement with
From Flybe Failure Fallout HM Treasury for APD to the value of
£3.8 million.
“Sadly, despite the efforts of all
> FLYBE STRUGGLED TO COMPETE AGAINST LOW-COST CARRIERS involved to turn the airline around,
not least the people of Flybe, the im-
> REGIONALS STEP INTO ROUTES LEFT OPEN BY FLYBE’S DEMISE
pact of COVID-19 on Flybe’s trading
means that the consortium can no
Tony Osborne London
longer commit to continued financial

T
he finger-pointing has begun leasing costs of the new fleet were support,” Virgin Atlantic said.
in the public blame game sur- tugging on the bottom line, and subse- Virgin’s previous plans to use Flybe
rounding the collapse of British quent CEOs—four in seven years—at- for its own regional and feeder serv–
regional airline Flybe. tempted to scale the fleet back to a ices for its long-haul flights have now
Workers’ unions and air transport more sustainable size. been shelved, but the airline says it will
associations have turned their ire on The airline had been praised for “explore options” to connect its ser-
the government, blaming ministers linking the British regions, but it had vices with UK regions in due course.
for not making reforms to the UK’s also been derided by competitors for Flybe finally halted operations on
controversial air passenger duty maintaining loss-making routes, many March 5, leaving its fleet scattered
(APD) tax and reneging on financial
support it had offered to Europe’s

TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST
largest regional airline.
Officials in the British aviation in-
dustry are warning that more airlines
could fail, particularly as demand for
air travel tails off in the face of the
COVID-19 outbreak.
Flybe is the fourth British airline to
fail in three years.
“Right now, there is a strong case
for the government to suspend
APD for the next six months and make
significant reductions in the longer
term to help this struggling industry,”
said British Airline Pilots Association
General Secretary Brian Strutton.
The government’s view coincided
with that of its shareholders, the Con- Flybe was the largest operator of the De Havilland Dash 8-400. The fleet,
nect Airways consortium, that bailing spread across airports all over the UK, is now grounded.
out the airline with private or public
funds—as the government proposed of which were seasonal and low-yield across the country and administra-
in January—would have simply been in nature, and for trying to compete tors to liquidate the business. How-
throwing good money after bad. with more efficient low-fare carriers ever, Flybe’s Aviation Services busi-
“Unfortunately, in a competitive like EasyJet and Ryanair on pricing. ness is unaffected by the collapse and
market, companies do fail, but it is not APD weighed on demand for flights, continues to operate normally.
the role of government to prop them too, with the tax immediately adding Of greater concern though is the fall-
up,” said British Transport Secretary £26 ($34) for a return domestic journey. out. At a time when the government is
Grant Shapps. By contrast, flights into Europe are calling for greater regional connectiv-
Although the impact of COVID-19 charged only once, on departure from ity, the loss of Flybe will be sorely felt
has been widely blamed for Flybe’s a UK airport. at some of the UK’s regional airports.
downfall, it was merely the straw that But even after the Connect Airways Flybe was the monopoly operator
broke the camel’s back and just one in consortium—a group made up of UK on many of its 120 routes. The com-
a litany of troubles that had plagued long-haul carrier Virgin Atlantic, pany also provided the majority of air
the airline for more than a decade. regional aircraft franchise operator services at Southampton, Belfast City
Born out of more humble begin- Stobart Air and investment fund and at Exeter airports and around
nings—serving the Channel Island manager Cyrus Capital Partners— half of the services to Cardiff in Wales
of Jersey—the company undertook a purchased Flybe, the airline contin- and to Jersey and the Isle of Man.
rapid expansion, buying a large fleet ued to burn through money. Some airlines have begun stepping
of Embraer jets and Bombardier Virgin Atlantic officials said the into the gap left behind. Scottish re-
Q400 turboprops before rebranding consortium had invested more than gional Loganair announced it would
itself as a full-service, low-fare airline £135 million over 14 months to keep take on several of Flybe’s Scottish
to compete with Britain’s railway net- the airline flying, including approxi- routes, and Alderney-based Aurigny
work. But it was not long before the mately £25 million of the £30 million Air Services will fly routes from

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

Guernsey to Exeter and Birmingham. due to COVID-19. Unions fear knock- The UK Treasury confirmed on
Meanwhile, Flybe’s franchise op- on effects that could see hundreds of March 11 it would review APD and its
erators, including Blue Islands and airport workers lose their jobs, on top impact on regional air services, con-
Eastern Airways, announced they of the 2,000-strong Flybe workforce firming it plans to issue a consultation in
were in the process of restoring their already redundant. A lack of services the spring. The government will “con-
own booking engines—having been could also drive more British region- sider the case” for changing the APD
reliant on Flybe’s systems. al airports out of business, they fear. treatment of domestic flights and look
However, many of the routes are Several have already closed or even at introducing a “return leg exemption”
likely to go unfulfilled, particularly nationalized in recent years (AW&ST as well as increasing the number of in-
when air travel demand is shrinking Oct. 27, 2014, p. 37). ternational distances bands. c

Europe’s LCCs Embark says the low-cost carrier (LCC) sphere

is underdeveloped compared with Eu-
On New Partnerships rope. “We have a business model that
stimulates the market, and we will
> WIZZ AIR’S ABU DHABI JOINT VENTURE IS SEEKING AN AOC take that model and our lower costs
to Abu Dhabi,” Varadi said.
> MIDDLE EAST ENTRY MAKES SENSE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN “Wizz Air has achieved success by
EUROPEAN-FOCUSED WIZZ AIR consolidating its business around Cen-
tral and Eastern Europe and by dom-
Helen Massy-Beresford Brussels inating routes between second cities
that are not tourist hot spots,” says

E
urope’s low-cost carriers have to the benefit of growing Abu Dhabi’s Ralph Hollister, travel and tourism
been faring better than their touristic and economic diversity.” analyst at data and analysis platform
legacy counterparts, enjoying The airline believes Wizz Air Abu GlobalData. “Wizz Air’s new partner-
strong growth in recent years, but Dhabi’s fleet could number 50 within a ship is another example of this broad
they cannot rest on their laurels. decade, flying 15-20 million passengers strategy of differentiation.”
Wizz Air’s move to launch a joint per year. Routes will initially focus on The Abu Dhabi joint venture pro-
venture in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Central and Eastern Europe before vides Wizz Air with a vast new source
Emirates, underlines the innovative branching out to Middle Eastern, market “whilst its European compet-
strategies budget carriers are adopt- Asian and African destinations. itors will still be operating in markets
ing to keep thriving in an ever-more Wizz Air also foresees a market po- much closer to reaching maturity,”
difficult aviation market. tential of 5 billion passengers within Hollister says.
Having rapidly expanded its Airbus eight flying hours of Abu Dhabi, and Before the full extent of the
A320-family fleet and route net- COVID-19 crisis was starting to be-
work in recent years, Budapest, come apparent, GlobalData forecast
Hungary-based Wizz Air is now that outbound flights from the UAE
poised for more growth beyond would reach 3 million by 2023, grow-
its Central and Eastern European ing at a compound annual growth rate
heartlands and is in the process of of 3.1% between 2019 and 2023.
obtaining an air operator’s cer- However, Wizz Air’s push into
tificate (AOC) for Wizz Air Abu new territory will not be unchal-
Dhabi, set up through a joint ven- lenged; Etihad Airways and Air Arabia
ture with Abu Dhabi-based holding are also in the process of establishing
company PJSC. their own LCC, which is set to begin
Operations are set to launch this operating in the coming months and
autumn, and recruitment will begin is also hoping to capitalize on growing
in the coming months. tourism in the region.
Wizz Air is looking
Describing the move as an “import- John Strickland, director of JLS
ant milestone,” Wizz Air CEO Jozsef east for growth. Consulting, sees Wizz Air’s Abu Dhabi
Varadi said on March 3: “Wizz Air’s move as a reflection of the emirate’s
mission feeds into Abu Dhabi’s diver- strategic wish to boost point-to-point
sified economic strategy, as we aim to tourism traffic and provide feeder traffic
stimulate traffic by creating demand for Etihad Airways’ long-haul services.
AIRBUS

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 31

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

The venture makes sense for Wizz necting platform, EasyJet Worldwide, more brands to its portfolio? It seems
Air, too, he says, especially given the which the British airline launched in unlikely at the moment.
large quantity of aircraft the LCC still 2017. EasyJet initially partnered with Strickland does not believe mak-
has on order. “It gives Wizz Air some- Norwegian Air Shuttle and WestJet to ing a move for either of the industry’s
where to place a number of the Airbus begin connecting flights to long-haul most recent casualties would make
A321LRs due to arrive in the fleet in services and enable passengers to buy sense for Ryanair: Flybe’s fleet of
the next few years,” Strickland says. other carriers’ flights on the Easy- small Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 and
“They know they can generate traffic Jet website. Cathay Pacific Airways, Embraer 175 aircraft and regional
on these kind of routes because they Emirates, Corsair and China Airlines routes would add more complexity
have already done it on routes to Dubai. are now also among the partners. than anything else.
And it builds on Wizz Air’s strength Europe’s biggest LCC, Ryanair, has As for Air Italy, “Ryanair is already
in Central and Eastern Europe, where looked beyond the LCC model, transi- the biggest airline in Italy through
it understands the market drivers. It tioning into a holding structure made organic growth and would not be in-
should be able to attract price-sensi- up of four airlines—Ryanair DAC, terested in Air Italy’s long-haul activ-
tive travelers looking to connect from Buzz, Laudamotion and Malta Air, the ities,” Strickland says. “Why would
Abu Dhabi on to all points east.” startup it bought in June 2019. they need to add complexity instead
It is increasingly important for LCCs Ryanair said at the time that Malta of continuing to grow organically?”
such as Wizz Air to maintain focus on Air would start operating with six air- Ryanair still has its work cut out
routes and partnerships that are not craft in the summer of 2020, growing with Laudamotion—more than a year
yet dominated by Ryanair or EasyJet, the fleet to 10 within three years and after its acquisition—and that should
in order to differentiate in a highly serving destinations across Europe serve as a cautionary tale for the air-
competitive industry, Hollister adds. and North Africa. line, Strickland believes. “Lauda has
Wizz Air is not the only LCC that The airline has said more consol- been a substantial loss-maker,” he says.
has been shaking up the business idation is an inevitable consequence “If another airline without Ryanair’s
model in a bid to drive growth. Easy- of the COVID-19 crisis—as an al- cash resources had made that move,
Jet has opted to team up with other ready tough operating environment it may have dragged them down.” c
airlines, both legacy carriers and long- gets tougher and airline collapses
haul LCC counterparts, through a con- mount—but will Ryanair look to add —With Kurt Hofmann in Vienna

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 C0NNECTED AEROSPACE

Quantifying ADS-B ‘In’ Benefits Now that the FAA requires all air-
craft to signal their position by ADS-B
Out, American Airlines pilots will be
> ACSS CERTIFIES ADS-B IN SYSTEM ON A321 able to test one of the first planned
ADS-B In applications—cockpit dis-
> EVALUATION STARTS WITH FIRST AIRCRAFT
play of traffic information-assisted vi-
sual separations (CAVS)—using other
Bill Carey Washington carriers’ aircraft as reference targets.
A visual approach procedure, CAVS

T
echnology early-adopter Amer- ed TCAS, terrain awareness warning allows pilots to maintain separation
ican Airlines, avionics supplier system (TAWS) and Mode S transpon- from other aircraft during challenging
ACSS and the FAA will gather der with ADS-B In/Out capability—is visual conditions by showing the differ-
data and report on the benefits of auto- fitted on the 100 new A321neos Airbus ential ground speed between a lead and
matic dependent surveillance-broad- is delivering to American Airlines. own-ship aircraft on the AGD.
cast (ADS-B) In applications to the Originally as US Airways, with which “They don’t have to follow another
wider industry. it merged in 2013, American Airlines American A321 to perform the opera-
Under a memorandum of agree- has worked with ACSS for nearly a tion—they can follow Southwest, Delta,
ment signed in 2016, the parties are decade to achieve ADS-B In capability. whoever,” Manberg says. “ADS-B Out is
collaborating on the ADS-B In Retrofit The airline completed certifica- a rich operation now, so there is a lot of
Spacing (AIRS) evaluation to demon- tion flight tests of SafeRoute+ on the opportunity to be able to perform those
strate the “operational feasibility” of A321 on Oct. 27, 2019, at Phoenix Sky operations. And we’ll be gathering data
as a part of that.”
ACSS

Other ADS-B In applications that

will be demonstrated during the eval-
uation are Enhanced Airborne Traf-
fic Situational Awareness—which is

A CAVS approach is visible on the

ADS-B Guidance Display.

used from takeoff to landing to display

surrounding airborne traffic relative
to own-ship position—and interval
management (IM), which helps pilots
maintain time-based spacing.
The use of IM supports both airline
block-time predictability and FAA
ground-delay program planning to
manage demand at arrival airports.
displaying and exploiting aircraft tar- Harbor International Airport (PHX) It will be evaluated within airspace
gets produced by ADS-B Out broad- in Arizona. managed by the FAA’s Albuquerque
casts on the flight deck using an ACSS Late last year, the FAA granted Tech- air route traffic control center for two
retrofit avionics system. nical Standard Order-C195b authoriza- westbound flights approaching PHX.
American Airlines started installing tion of the SafeRoute+ software and AGD SafeRoute+ is not the first opera-
the ACSS SafeRoute+ system on its and issued a supplemental type certif- tional ADS-B In system. Airbus pre-
fleet of Airbus A321s in January; it plans icate to install the system on the A321. viously certified an Airborne Traffic
to equip 319 of the narrowbody airliners The AIRS partners are “actively Situational Awareness (ATSAW) sys-
over the next 4-5 years. ACSS says it is capturing data” from the first equipped tem on its A320, A330 and A350 types
also working with a second U.S. carrier A321, a retrofit of the aircraft used that provides ADS-B In functionality
that plans a smaller-scale evaluation of for the certification flight tests, says using TCAS processors from ACSS,
the retrofit ADS-B In system. Chuck Manberg, ACSS’ lead ADS-B Honeywell and Collins Aerospace.
SafeRoute+ is a software upgrade to engineer. Plans call for producing an ATSAW is offered as a line-fit option or
an aircraft’s traffic alert and collision initial report on ADS-B In operational through service bulletins for retrofit.
avoidance system (TCAS 3000SP) benefits in 2021, after more aircraft Airbus reports that 229 A320s have
or T3CAS surveillance processor have joined the evaluation. been delivered with the ATSAW func-
that avoids panel modifications on “This is a large-scale demonstra- tion selected as a line-fit option since
the flight deck by using the existing tion effort to be able to quantify those the system was certified in 2010 plus
multifunction control and display unit benefits,” Manberg says. “More than another 80 A330s after ATSAW was
and primary flight displays with the likely, we will extend the contract as certified on that type in 2010.
addition of a small ADS-B Guidance well. There are other opportunities The manufacturer has also deliv-
Display (AGD) in place of a mechani- that we’re pursuing, where we might ered 155 ATSAW-equipped A350s
cal standby instrument. be able to quantify even more benefits since the newer widebody airliner en-
The T3CAS system—an integrat- of the technology for the industry.” tered service in 2015. c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 33

BUSINESS

Lockheed Signals Change any revolutionary change as a result of this appointment.”

Cowen analysts also noted that St. John’s appointment as
Is Coming With New CEO COO further bookends Taiclet with experienced Lockheed
managers. St. John, 53, joined Lockheed more than 30 years
> NEW LEADER CHOSEN FROM OUTSIDE ago and as COO is naturally positioned as a potential future
THE COMPANY’S RANKS CEO, analysts say.
Taiclet is currently chairman, president and CEO of
> ANALYSTS SAY CEO-DESIGNATE MAY MEAN American Tower, a real estate investment holding company
MORE COMMERCIAL WORK and owner/operator of wireless and broadband communi-
cations networks, where he has held the executive reins
Michael Bruno Washington since 2003. He joined that company in 2001 and, according
to Lockheed, is credited with guiding American Tower’s

L
ockheed Martin Chairman, CEO and President Marillyn transformation from a U.S.-centric focus to a multination-
Hewson became the prime example of how to stumble al business outlook. Analysts said he also was central in
into the corner office of the Pentagon’s top contractor leading mergers and acquisitions as part of the company’s
and still provide laudable business results. Now, as she hands expansion. American Tower announced an immediate re-
off the reins to an enigmatic successor, Lockheed stakehold- placement for Taiclet but said he will remain chairman and
ers hope the uncertainty ahead will be just as lucrative. an advisor through June 14.
On March 16, the Bethesda, Maryland-based prime—the Taiclet previously served as president of Honeywell
largest contractor to the U.S. Defense Department by annu- Aerospace Services and before that was vice president for
al sales—surprised many followers engine services at Pratt & Whit-

LOCKHEED MARTIN PHOTOS

with the news that current Lock- ney of United Technologies (UTC).
heed board member James “Jim” He also worked as a consultant at
Taiclet, Jr. will become CEO and McKinsey & Co., specializing in
president on June 15, while Hew- telecommunications and aero-
son becomes executive chairman. space strategy and operations. He
Lockheed also promoted Frank is a retired U.S. Air Force pilot and
St. John, current executive vice Persian Gulf War veteran.
president of the company’s Rotary Loren Thompson, a Lexington
and Mission Systems (RMS) di- Institute consultant to Lockheed,
vision, to become chief operating says Hewson’s selection of Taiclet
officer (COO)—a role that Hewson seems calculated to continue her
technically held last, and briefly, emphasis on tight financial man-
before her January 2013 appoint- agement and good customer rela-
Chairman, CEO and President Marillyn Hewson
ment as chief executive. Before tions while positioning the lead-
that, the COO role was mostly will become executive chairman only starting ing prime for a changing demand
held by Chris Kubasik prior to his June 15, when James “Jim” Taiclet, Jr. will environment.
downfall at Lockheed. Stephanie become the new CEO and president. “That environment will be char-
Hill, now senior vice president for acterized by two shifts from previ-
enterprise business transformation, was appointed to suc- ous years,” Thompson writes. “First, the defense budget will
ceed St. John as executive vice president for RMS. These enter a flat to declining period very different from the spend-
appointments also are effective June 15. ing increases of the early Trump [administration] years.
Hewson is 66 years old and Taiclet is 59. The company, Second, the preference of military customers for nontradi-
which does not have a retirement rule, had not announced tional suppliers who think like entrepreneurial enterprises
a formal transition plan or successor process. Neverthe- rather than government contractors will continue to grow.”
less, industry insiders were watching movements—such as Hewson’s selection of Taiclet also is telling because she
St. John’s rise and recent board appointments—and ana- has won the respect of many industry insiders, analysts and
lysts said they assume the transition was planned before advisers. While unplanned, Hewson’s tenure as CEO was
the ongoing COVID-19 crisis erupted. deemed successful by most.
While the announcement was a surprise, the timing was “Hewson’s tenure is known for operational execution with
not—due to Hewson’s age and the fact that Lockheed ended such programs as the F-35, while having a successful over-
2019 with a record $144 billion backlog of work and a stock sight in maintaining key businesses—such as in the evolving
price that has more than tripled under Hewson, including area of space with wins such as Next-Gen OPIR and GPS
the recent COVID-19-related pullback. Still, many observers IIIF,” say Jefferies analysts. Company sales grew at a 5%
are intrigued by the selection. compound annual growth rate from $45.4 billion in 2013 to
“While Marillyn’s retirement has been in the cards for an expected $63.3 billion this year.
a while, we were not expecting Lockheed to go outside Taiclet’s takeover sounds to many like more of the same—
the company for its new CEO,” say analysts at Vertical but different. “This is the first time Lockheed Martin has
Research Partners. “Taiclet has an impressive pedigree promoted someone who did not rise through the corporation
based on his resume, but from an A&D perspective, he to be president and CEO,” writes Capital Alpha Partners
is an unknown quantity. . . . But with Marillyn sticking analyst Byron Callan. “We find it intriguing that he has a
around as chairman, and a very experienced cohort of se- commercial background and wonder if that’s not a different
nior Lockheed managers, we are not expecting there to be direction the company starts to explore in 2020-25.” c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

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DEFENSE > MDA’s faster schedule p. 38 New USAF ‘engine war’ p. 41 USMC’s UAS plans p. 42 U.S. Army helos p. 43
South Korean stealth drone p. 44 UK post-Brexit defense review p.46

T-X REDUX
> M-346 BIDDER DISPUTES T-50 DECISION

> RADAR REQUIREMENT

TILTS THE ACC TO T-50

> ACC SEEKING TO REVAMP

USAF PILOT TRAINING

Steve Trimble Washington

As a result, the ACC quietly opened

T
discussions last May with two compet-
wo advanced jet trainers—Korea Aerospace Indus- ing private companies that now rep-
tries/Lockheed Martin’s T-50 and Leonardo’s M-346— resent the T-50 and M-346 to select a
dueled for decades for a chance to replace the U.S. bidder for the RFX.
Hillwood Aviation, a Perot compa-
Air Force’s T-38 fleet, only to lose to the Boeing/Saab ny, proposed T-50s to the ACC for the
team’s upstart and recently branded T-7A. RFX contract. Mission System Solu-
tions (MSS), an aerospace engineer-
The T-X competition ended 18 Northrop T-38 fleet but also to revamp ing services firm, offered M-346s.
months ago, but a quietly heated an 80-year-old pilot-training system From the beginning, the Air Force’s
competition between the T-50 and that he says produces too few pilots requirements strongly favored the
the M-346 to land a new Air Force and emphasizes the wrong skills. T-50. The initial request for infor-
contract called the “RFX” continues. Last year, Holmes unveiled an mation (RFI) for the RFX released
To be sure, the Boeing/Saab team’s ACC-led plan to reshape the pipe- last May included a requirement for
grip on the $9.2 billion T-X contract line for fighter and bomber pilots. supersonic speed, which is a highly
remains safe. The Air Force is still His “Project Reforge” with the RFX, touted feature of the T-50 but elimi-
counting on Boeing to deliver poten- originally published on the War on nates the subsonic M-346.
tially 351 T-7As, with the first aircraft the Rocks online publication, propos- The ACC released the first request
and simulator scheduled to be deliv- es to eliminate Formal Training Units for information about the RFX ser-
ered to Joint Base San Antonio-Ran- and mix advanced jet trainers such vices contract in May 2019, but Ar-
dolph, Texas, in 2023. as the T-7A with frontline fighters in lington, Texas-based MSS was initially
Before the T-7A can arrive, how- operational squadrons. unaware of the proposal, says MSS
ever, head of Air Combat Command But first Holmes wants to validate CEO David Nichols.
(ACC) Gen. Mike Holmes has defined that his ideas work. By renting flight MSS had played a key role in the
a requirement for the RFX: It would time on advanced jet trainers avail- Leonardo team’s bid for the M-346-
consist of access to 4-8 advanced jet able now, rather than waiting for derived T-100 bid for the T-X con-
trainers, each rented annually for T-7As after 2023, Holmes wants the tract, providing aircraft engineering
about 4,500 flight hours over a five- ACC to be ready for a dramatic shift services during the lengthy source
year period. in training practices as the Boeing/ selection process. Following Boeing’s
In an ironic twist, as a result of the Saab aircraft come into service. Thus, loss in the competition, MSS moved to
RFX, one of the two losing aircraft Holmes’ timeline rules out using the secure access to at least four “white-
for the T-X contract could play a T-7A for the validation phase. Boeing tail” M-346s produced by Leonardo
pivotal role in transforming how the has produced only two industry-fund- without a customer. In May 2019, MSS
Air Force uses and bases the future ed prototypes, and both are needed then proposed to offer those M-346s
T-7A fleet. to support the T-7A development to the Air Education and Training
Holmes says the T-7A’s modern ca- program, which is scheduled to end Command (AETC) as a stopgap to
pabilities offer a generational chance at the initial operational capability cover a shortfall of T-38s until the
not just to replace the 60-year-old milestone in 2024. T-7A became available, Nichols says.

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 M-346 variant provides advanced dis- The ACC notified industry of the
M-346s carry the same Elbit Systems plays and training systems needed for decision to award a sole-source con-
the RFX but does not have an active tract to Hillwood Aviation in January
embedded training technology that
radar at this time, and the timeline but has taken no further action since
will be installed on Boeing’s T-7A fleet, for incorporating one was unknown. then. In the interim, MSS has intensi-
and MSS believes that should make Therefore, only the T-50 meets the fied its efforts to reverse the decision,
a requirement for active basic requirements for the RFX,” enlisting congressional supporters to
sensors on RFX redundant. an ACC spokesperson explained to lobby the ACC and launching a media
Aviation Week. campaign focused on advertising the
A representative for Hillwood Avi- capabilities of the M-346 for the RFX
ation declined to comment. requirement, Nichols says.
The ACC notified industry in Jan- In order to win the award, MSS is
uary that it intends to award a sole- seeking to pressure the ACC to drop
source contract to Hillwood Aviation’s the requirement for an active radar
T-50s for the RFX requirement. in the RFX fleet. In Nichols’ view,
The late addition of the radar re- the radar is unnecessary because
quirement for the RFX surprised and the M-346’s embedded training sys-
baffled MSS, Nichols says. tem is designed to emulate all of the
“The radar was just an attempt sensors, including radars, on the Air
to justify a sole-source award to the Force’s fleet of operational fighters.
T-50—that’s the way it appeared,” MSS’ proposed M-346 aircraft comes
Nichols says. “[It was] the fact that equipped with Elbit’s embedded train-
they never talked to us to say, ‘Do you ing system, which Boeing also selected
MISSION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
guys have a radar?’” for the T-7A, Nichols says.
It was during a presentation about the Although the ACC says the radar MSS’ proposal is based on an agree-
stopgap proposal to AETC that MSS integration schedule for the M-346 ment with a third-party financier,
first learned about the ACC’s RFI for is “unknown,” Nichols says that MSS which will acquire the white-tails and
the RFX, Nichols says. offered to provide Grifo-equipped provide them to MSS for the RFX,
After MSS proposed the M-346, M-346s for the RFX within 12 months Nichols says. He declined to identify
the ACC’s requirements changed. The of contract signing. the financier. Once the five-year vali-
ACC dropped the requirement for a Nichols, an industry participant dation project is completed, MSS has
supersonic aircraft, calling instead for in the Air Force’s search for a T-38 an agreement with another operator
an aircraft that can achieve a closing

U.S. AIR FORCE

speed with another of the same type Some of South Korea’s T-50s are already equipped with radars,
of aircraft at 1,100 kt. Two M-346s making them the Air Combat Command’s preferred candidate
can achieve a closing speed of 1,400
kt., Nichols says, so subsonic speed for the RFX contract.
was no longer a disqualifying factor
for the ACC.
But the ACC later added a new re-
quirement: The RFX aircraft must be
ready to carry a radar. South Korea
operates a version of the T-50 with the
Israel Aerospace Industries EL/M-
2022 radar, so that aircraft remains
eligible for Project Reforge. Leonar-
do is still in the process of qualifying
its Grifo radar on the M-346, Nichols
says. But the radar integration for the
M-346FA requires engineering chang-
es that are not retrofittable to the
white-tail aircraft available to MSS,
Nichols says. replacement for a decade, suspects to continue using the aircraft, Nichols
Based on the radar requirement, the original supersonic requirement says. The aircraft can provide a broad
the ACC decided in January to dis- for the RFX speaks to an internal de- range of services, including advanced
qualify all other aircraft except the sire within pockets of the ACC for a pilot training and adversary air con-
T-50s offered by Hillwood Aviation, trainer with greater speed than the tract services, he says.
whose chairman is Michael Moseley, M-346 offers. “We believe that there’s a market”
former head of the ACC and Air Force “You still have factions within for the M-346 white-tails, Nichols says.
chief of staff. the Air Force that are looking for a “Whether it is doing pilot training, [ad-
“The T-50 provides the advanced high-performance aircraft for a train- versary] air or supporting internation-
displays, training systems and ac- er aircraft, and the T-50 scratches al air forces, we will find a way to keep
tive radar needed for the RFX. The that itch,” Nichols says. our service going here in the States.” c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 37

DEFENSE

As USAF Fleet Plans Evolve, Can > AIR FORCE WILL CONSIDER UAS
TO REPLACE SOME F-16s
the F-35A Program Survive Intact? > ACC SETS 60% GOAL FOR
FIFTH-GEN MIX IN FIGHTER FLEET

CYNTHIA GRIGGS/U.S. AIR FORCE

Steve Trimble Washington

O
riginal estimates for costs, Barring a significant increase The U.S. Air Force’s unbroken com-
schedules and quantities of in the Air Force’s authorized force mitment to buy 1,763 F-35As through
the Lockheed Martin F-35 structure, both statements appear the mid-2040s appears threatened
upon contract award in October 2001 to jeopardize the mathematical pos-
by new interest in low-cost UAS and
proved highly unreliable over the sibility for the F-35A to achieve the
fighter program’s nearly two-decade full program of record. fourth-generation fighters
life span, but one critical number did As fleet acquisition plans stand today,
not: 1,763. the F-35A program of record appears The head of the Air Force’s F-35 In-
That four-digit figure represents sound. Lockheed has delivered at least tegration Office acknowledges the nu-
program of record quantity for the 224 F-35As to the Air Force so far. The merical disparity implied by Holmes’
U.S. Air Force—the F-35’s largest cus- public program of record calls for the statements, but he stands by the F-35
tomer by far—accounting for more F-35A to replace A-10s and F-16s, which original program of record.
than half of all projected orders by currently number 281 and 1,037, respec- “The program of record for this air-
U.S. and international customers. The tively, according to Aviation Week and craft is really long,” Brig. Gen. David
Navy and Marine Corps, the second- Air Force databases. In 2010, Lockheed Abba said on March 9, referring to the
and third-largest buyers of the combat and F-35 Joint Program Office officials Air Force’s plans to continue F-35A
aircraft, respectively, downsized their also confirmed that the F-35 would re- production into the mid-2040s. “I un-
planned F-35 fleet by 400 aircraft in place the F-15E fleet after 2035, which derstand that’s a natural question to
2004. But the Air Force’s quantity currently numbers 228 aircraft. Adding ask, but I don’t think anybody’s ready
never budged. the number of F-35As already deliv- to make that sort of a declaration.”
Although the Air Force’s official ered, the Air Force has a replacement Altering the program of record
number remains unchanged, the F-35A population of 1,770 aircraft. would not change the steady, down-
is facing a new credibility test after a But Holmes’ statements could sig- ward trajectory of the F-35A’s recur-
series of public statements made by nificantly alter the equation. The ser- ring unit costs. Last year, Lockheed
Gen. Mike Holmes, the head of Air vice’s latest budget justification docu- agreed to a priced option for Lot 14
Combat Command (ACC). ments show about 325 of the 1,037 F-16s deliveries in fiscal 2022, which falls to
In late February, Holmes suggested now in the Air Force fleet form the $77.9 million. But changing the overall
that low-cost and attritable unmanned “pre-block” fleet that could be retired procurement quantity does have an
aircraft systems (UAS) might be con- by attritable UAS instead of F-35As. impact on the program acquisition
sidered by ACC as a replacement for Holmes’ goal of a fighter fleet with a unit cost (PAUC), which calculates the
F-16 Block 25/30 jets (also known as 60% share of fifth-generation jets also average cost per aircraft, including
“pre-block F-16s”) within 5-8 years. complicates the forecast for the F-35A. recurring and nonrecurring costs. In
In congressional testimony on March Including the F-22 fleet’s 186 aircraft, the program of record, the PAUC esti-
12, Holmes added that ACC’s goal is as well as 234 F-15C/Ds, the Air Force mate is currently $116 million each for
to achieve a fighter fleet ratio of 60% today operates a total fleet of 2,190 all three versions of the F-35.
fifth-generation jets, such as F-35As and fighters. A 60% share of the fleet re- Noting the forecast length of the
F-22s, to 40% fourth-generation aircraft, sults in 1,314 total fifth-generation air- F-35 production program, Abba rec-
including F-15s, F-16s and A-10s. He also craft. After subtracting the numbers of ommends taking a long-term view.
said a recent analysis by the Office of the F-22s, the Air Force would have room “I would focus less on the program of
Secretary of Defense recommends an for only 1,128 F-35As, which implies a record element,” Abba said, and more
even split between fourth- and fifth-gen- 34% reduction from the program of on the Air Force’s plans “to keep op-
eration fighters. record of 1,763. tions open.” c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 Tomorrow’s Technology Leaders

Congratulations to the 2020

20 Twenties Winners!
Aviation Week Network and AIAA congratulate this year’s 20 Twenties honorees for
their exceptional academic accomplishments, high value research and civil service.
➤ Emily Beckman, Purdue University ➤ Alexis Hepburn, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
➤ Valerie Bernstein, University of Colorado Boulder ➤ Chloe Johnson, University of Texas at Austin
➤ Kate Byrd, Harvard University ➤ Michelle Lin, University of Colorado Boulder
➤ Katherine Carroll, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign ➤ Julia Mihaylov, Johns Hopkins University
➤ Sean Devey, University of Alabama ➤ Victoria Pellerito, Lawrence Technological University
➤ Paula do Vale Pereira, Massachusetts Institute of ➤ Ethan Plaehn, Purdue University
Technology ➤ Simon Shuham, University of Colorado Boulder
➤ S. Reza Fattahi M., Sharif University of Technology ➤ Gautham Viswaroopan, University of Colorado Boulder
➤ Kanika Gakhar, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ➤ Laura Yenchesky, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
➤ Shannon Gatta, University of Washington ➤ David Zuehlke, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
➤ Jane Gillette, University of Alabama

Learn more about these winners:

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In Association With:
DEFENSE

MDA Seeks Two-Year Schedule But the administration of former

President Barack Obama canceled a
Bump for New GBI Option Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV) upgrade
for the GBI in 2009, only to revive
> PENTAGON SETS NGI DEBUT FOR 2028 the concept as the Multi-Object Kill
Vehicle (MOKV) upgrade for the GBI
> ENGINE TESTING SUGGESTS NORTH KOREAN THREAT ADVANCING in 2015. Two years later, the admin-
istration of President Donald Trump
Steve Trimble Washington attempted to accelerate MOKV and
deliver the upgrade five years earlier,

A
ccelerated scheduling and later—likely with improvements that in 2025, but congressional appropria-
exoatmospheric interceptor address any performance gap for the tors reallocated most of the funding as
programs have a bleak track accelerated deliveries in 2028. the MDA prioritized the Redesigned
record over the past decade, but an The predictions received a bitterly Kill Vehicle (RKV) upgrade for GBI. By
impatient Pentagon leadership decid- skeptical response from one lawmaker. early 2019, however, the RKV program
ed on March 10 to try it again. After listening to Griffin link the accel- had fallen two years behind schedule,
The Next-Generation Interceptor erated schedule to feedback from NGI leading Griffin to cancel the program
(NGI) will enter service as early as bidders, Rep. James Cooper (D-Tenn.) in August 2019.
2028, or up to two years faster than the shot back with an apparent reference Meanwhile, the ICBM threat contin-
previous “end of the decade” timeline to Boeing’s recent stumbles on test- ues to evolve. The MDA’s charter is de-
for the long-delayed follow-on and re- ing NASA’s Starliner spacecraft. “But signed to ignore the threat of a volume
placement for the 20-year-old Boeing these are the same contractors who attack by Russia and China, and instead
Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI),
several defense officials informed $5.38
Congress during a series of hearing Requested Next-Generation billion
appearances in mid-March. Interceptor Funding
“We believe, based on [requests
for information] received back from Fiscal 2020-25
the contractors, that some significant
shortening of that period is possible,”
Defense Undersecretary Michael
Griffin told a House Armed Services
Committee panel on March 11.
Instead of immediately disqualifying
bids that offer a faster delivery schedule $1.29 $1.26
at the expense of less performance, the billion billion
$885 $841
MDA will ask combatant commanders $638 million million
if they are willing to accept that trade- $465 million
million
off, said Vice Adm. Jon Hill, the Missile
Defense Agency (MDA) director.
“We know we can have opportuni- 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total 2020-25
ties to pull in schedule [by] working Source: U.S. Defense Department
with industry through the evaluation
process,” Hill said. He added that the failed to deliver us a space vehicle that focus on a limited nuclear ICBM strike
2028 timeline is based on a 75% con- could go to space,” Cooper said. by a rogue state. North Korea’s capa-
fidence level, versus the normal 50%. Other lawmakers are eager for the bilities for a long-range, ballistic strike
Hill’s key operational partner, North- MDA to finally deliver a replacement appeared primitive until 2017, when a
ern Command head Gen. Terrence for the GBI, which was rushed into string of apparently successful flight
O’Shaughnessy, indicated he supports service two decades ago before a full tests demonstrated a potential capacity
the new plan, which he helped decide testing program. “We put a person on to strike the U.S. West Coast. Although
during a Joint Requirements Over- the Moon in a shorter period of time,” North Korea has stopped long-range
sight Council meeting at the Pentagon said Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio). missile tests, the country’s capabilities
on March 10. Indeed, the MDA has sought to re- continue to improve, O’Shaughnessy
“We’re going to be able to bring place or upgrade the original GBI for 12 told Congress, referencing comments
this capability to bear sooner,” years. Boeing designed each of the 44 by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
O’Shaughnessy testified to a third GBIs to carry a single kill vehicle, and “While Kim did not specify what
Armed Services panel on March 11. a successful intercept could require this new weapon would be, recent
Sitting alongside Hill during a launching interceptors at the same engine testing suggests North Korea
hearing on March 12, O’Shaughnessy, target. Even relatively primitive inter- may be prepared to flight-test an even
whose command controls the 44 GBIs continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) more capable ICBM design that could
stationed in Alaska and California, carry decoys and countermeasures. enhance Kim’s ability to threaten our
also said he expects the MDA to de- More advanced ICBMs could release homeland during a crisis or conflict,”
liver “follow-on” versions of the NGI multiple warheads. O’Shaughnessy said. c

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

Possible New ‘Engine War’ Recasts alternative,” Pratt Military Engines
President Matthew Bromberg told
Pratt as Champion of Competition Aviation Week. “If we’re not compet-
itive in terms of capability, schedule
> LEGAL RULING EXPECTED BY JULY FOR PRATT’S TWO PROTESTS [and] price, I get it. But after the U.S.
government spent all this money cre-
> USAF WARNS COMPETITION WOULD CAUSE 2-3-YEAR DELAY ating two engines for the F-15 and F-16
platforms, why would it then not com-
Steve Trimble Washington pete a 450-engine program?”
Asked if the existing F100 would

A
jet engine maker is now engine. Service officials decided to require additional development to
pressuring the U.S. Defense acquire the F-15EX after concluding meet the Air Force’s requirements for
Department to scrap a plan the F-15C/Ds were too costly to sus- the F-15EX, Bromberg replied that he
to award a sole-source contract to a tain and partly because it would take cannot answer that question in the
rival for a fleet of new fighters and too long for the Pratt F135-powered absence of a competitive process that
investigate the opportunity for per- F-35A to replace all of them. allows Pratt access to the specifica-
formance and cost improvements Pratt’s protests now threaten to tions. He also noted that the F100
yielded by a competitive selection disrupt that schedule and erode the exclusively powers the Air Force’s
process. Air Force’s original business case for existing fleet of F-15Es.
If that narrative sounds familiar, it the F-15EX. The F100 and F110 were designed
is because it echoes a role GE Avia- “If we have to do an engine com- to fit interchangeably in the F-15, al-
tion played for more than 40 years, petition, it will add time—2-3 years,” though the heavily modified Saudi
which included a successful bid in said Will Roper, assistant secretary Arabian F-15SA and the Qatari F-15QA
the 1980s to launch the “Great En- of the Air Force for Acquisition, from which the F-15EX was derived are
gine War” over the F-15 and F-16
fleets, and a failed campaign that
ended almost a decade ago to es-
tablish the F136 as the alternate
engine for the F-35.
This time, however, the roles
are reversed. Pratt & Whitney,
Pratt & Whitney’s F100
(pictured) is designed to be
interchangeable with GE
Aviation’s F110 as the engine
for the Boeing F-15 fleet.

which waged fierce lobbying cam-

paigns against competitive engine
policies for the F-15, F-16 and F-35,
has switched sides in the debate.
In response to the U.S. Air
Force’s decision to field the
F-15EX into production pow-
ered solely by GE F110 engines,
Pratt has filed two protests with STAFF SGT. THOMAS TROWER/U.S. AIR FORCE
the Government Accountability
Office (GAO), which is scheduled to Technology and Logistics, testifying exclusively powered by GE’s engine.
render judgments on both cases by before the House Armed Services The GAO does not release com-
early July. Committee on March 10. plaints filed by protesters up front,
The Air Force sided with GE Only a decade ago, Pratt welcomed but it does release the full text of de-
during the Great Engine War in 1984. a vote by Congress in 2010 to cancel cisions. It is not clear why Pratt filed
Seeking to lower costs and motivate funding for the F-35 program’s alter- two separate protests on the sole-
Pratt to resolve stall-stagnation prob- nate engine, along with a decision by source decision for the GE engine on
lems with the original F100, the Air GE and Rolls-Royce a year later to the F-15EX, but Bromberg advised
Force decided that year to split the abandon a plan to self-fund the cer- not reading too much into it.
engine contract for the F-15 and F-16 tification of the F136. But Pratt now “I’d like to obviously be able to dis-
between GE’s F110 and Pratt’s F100. embraces the potential benefits of an cuss them, but I can’t because it’s a le-
Thirty-six years later, the Air Force engine competition for the F-15EX. gal process,” Bromberg said. “I would
now worries about the schedule im- “Our government supports compe- really view them as a single protest
pact if the GAO sustains either or tition at all levels, and we’re interested on a single procurement action, and
both of Pratt’s protests for the F-15EX in providing the F100 as a competitive that is a lack of competition.” c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 41

DEFENSE

Marines Dial Back UAS Strategy because the air vehicle is designed for
an aircraft carrier, not an amphibious
assault ship. The MQ-25 requires a
> MUX PLAGUED BY REQUIREMENTS CREEP catapult shot and an arresting cable—
and this launch-and-recovery method
> MARINES OPT FOR FAMILY-OF-SYSTEMS APPROACH
is not available on an amphibious ship.
The Marines operate General
Lee Hudson Washington Atomics MQ-9 Reapers from MCAS
Yuma in Arizona to support Task

T
he U.S. Marine Corps is dras- ditionary Force’s capability gaps. The Force Southwest in Afghanistan.
tically changing course in its next-generation UAS is intended to This capability is intended to inform
effort to develop a large un- have greater range, endurance, alti- concepts of operations for MUX and
manned aircraft for vertical takeoff tude and payload capability than con- is allowing the service to nurture its
from amphibious ships. Instead of a ventional vertical-takeoff-and-landing own cadre of UAS operators.
single large, expensive air vehicle that technology. The service flipped the script when
can do everything, the service plans “With a family-of-systems ap- creating a development to acquire the
to buy smaller unmanned systems for proach, my sense is we’re going to next-generation UAS. Traditionally,
specific missions. have an air vehicle that can do some the Marines would have launched a
The Marine Air-Ground Task Force of the higher-end requirements from competition to purchase a new Group
Unmanned Aircraft Expeditionary a land-based, high-endurance vehi- 5 UAS. Instead the Marine Corps
(MUX) effort was initially envisioned cle, but we’re still going to maintain a kicked off a competition to figure out
as a Group 5 shipboard unmanned air- shipboard capability; it may just not what payloads it wants developed be-
craft system (UAS) that could conduct be as big as we originally configured,” fore purchasing an air vehicle. In No-
high-end mission profiles. The Pen- Rudder says. vember, the Navy awarded contracts
for the creation of four individual mis-
Marine Corps MUX MALE Group 5 UAV sion payloads: airborne early warning,
data relay, electronic warfare and ISR.
(Fiscal 2021-25, U.S. millions) Each first-place winner received
$700,000. Second-place winners re-
$63.451 $63.028 $64.288 ceived $200,000, and third-place fin-
ishers received $100,000.
Boeing won first place for the data
$22.589 $27.063 relay payload design concept, and
BAE Systems took the top spot for
the ISR prize challenge. Telephonics
secured first place with its design
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 concept for an airborne early warn-
ing mission payload, and L3Harris
Source: U.S. Navy fiscal 2021 budget request
Technologies won first place for the
tagon is facing a stagnating budget The service operates the Boeing electronic warfare mission payload.
topline, and the service’s reshaping Insitu RQ-21 Blackjack to fulfill its Piasecki Aircraft Corp. took second
of its new UAS program is a casualty. shipboard intelligence, surveillance place for the airborne early warning
The head of the Marine Corps points and reconnaissance (ISR) require- mission payload, and Bell Textron/
to MUX as an example of requirements ments. Rudder envisions the MUX Sierra Nevada won third place.
creep and how the services must be shipboard capability to be “RQ-21+” or Piasecki also came in second for the
more disciplined. The Marines piled on some sort of Group 3 or 4 air vehicle. ISR mission payload, while General
15 requirements for MUX and caused The Marine Corps is still holding Atomics secured third place.
the program to become buried and un- out hope for a Group 5 UAS, but that Northrop Grumman finished in
manageable, says Marine Corps Com- will not be possible until far into the second place for the data relay mis-
mandant Gen. David Berger. future, Rudder says. The service imag- sion payload, and Cubic Defense Ap-
“Now we’re [going] the other way, ines there will be one air vehicle in the plications Inc. came in third. General
shrinking back down,” Berger says. near term that is land-based, and a Atomics won second place in the elec-
The Marine Corps is altering its separate shipboard design. tronic warfare payload category, and
strategy by not having a long list of Berger wants MUX to come into Piasecki came in third.
critical requirements for a single air fruition within the next 10 years, and In December, the Marine Corps
vehicle, says Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, the Marine Corps believes the quick- canceled prize challenges for architec-
deputy commandant for aviation. The est way to make it happen is by pur- ture and modularity and instead opted
top requirement is airborne early warn- chasing a land-based high-endurance for a government-driven approach.
ing coverage for amphibious forces. air vehicle and a separate UAS that Current Marine Corps plans are for
The U.S. Military Strategy and the can operate from an amphibious ship. MUX to be introduced into the fleet in
U.S. Maritime Strategy require an There is no plan for the Marine 2026, flying ahead of Lockheed Mar-
advanced, multimission ship-based Corps to use the Navy’s Boeing MQ-25 tin F-35s and Bell-Boeing V-22s to per-
Group 5 UAS to fill the Marine Expe- Stingray for its shipboard UAS role form support tasks. c

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 U.S. Army Pushes Ahead With even though there was no flight time
associated with that . . . a tremendous
Black Hawk Replacement Program amount of data came out of that,” says
Brig. Gen. Walter Rugen, Future Ver-
> DEMONSTRATION, RISK-REDUCTION PHASE SPANS FISCAL 2022 tical Lift cross-functional team direc-
tor. “The flight envelope continues to
> UH-60 REPLACEMENT ACCELERATED BY FOUR YEARS expand for Sikorsky-Boeing. They’re
flying a bit more aggressively now
Lee Hudson Washington than the V-280, and as the JMR fin-
ishes up toward the end of this fiscal

O
ver the next two years, two the precursor to FLRAA. Bell built the year, maybe August, we’re going to see
teams, Sikorsky-Boeing and V-280 Valor, which reached 300 kt., very comparable data on both sides.”
Bell, will continue risk-reduc- while Sikorsky-Boeing constructed the Not every single hour of flight time
tion work for the U.S. Army’s effort to SB-1 Defiant to reach at least 250 kt. is valuable for the Army. It depends on
replace the aging UH-60 Black Hawk. The Valor has flown 170 hr. in flight what test points were executed during
The service awarded Sikorsky-Boe- testing and presented to the Army each flight. The same goes for mod-
ing $97 million and Bell $84 million for
project agreements under the Aviation
and Missile Technology Consortium’s
Other Transaction Authority. The
companies will deliver initial conceptu-
al designs, requirements feasibility and
trade studies over two years, before a
formal program of record begins.
A $7 million difference exists in
the project agreements, because al-

The SB-1 Defiant is designed to

reach speeds of at least 250 kt.

Bell’s V-280 Valor demonstrator

has already flown at 300 kt.
BELL

eling and simulation: The Army puts

more weight into what was tested,
says Patrick Mason, program execu-
tive officer for aviation.
A Defense Department indepen-
dent review of FLRAA’s technology
readiness level (TRL) decided most
areas were a TRL 6 or 7, while some
were rated a 5, Rugen says. This re-
sulted in the Army’s decision to con-
duct the two-year competitive demon-
stration and risk-reduction phase to
raise TRLs to between 7 and 9 before
entering a program of record.
“We see this as a good competition
LOCKHEED MARTIN

between two vendors that are moving

forward and executing what we need
them to do,” Mason says.
Rugen echoes this sentiment. “The
though the scope of each proposal was the data that Bell captured over more proof is in the pudding,” he says. The
similar, the companies have different than two years. During development, Army accelerated FLRAA by four
technical and costing approaches, the Valor logged more flight time than years in the fiscal year 2021 budget
says Col. David Phillips, project man- the Defiant; however, the Army was request.
ager of Future Long-Range Assault comfortable enough with the amount The service intends to make FLRAA
Aircraft (FLRAA). of data the Sikorsky-Boeing team sub- a program of record in fiscal year
Two advanced rotorcraft were man- mitted to award a project agreement. 2022. At that point, other vendors
ufactured for the Army’s Joint Multi- “With the iron bird approach that could enter the competition and bid
Role (JMR) technology demonstration, Sikorsky-Boeing went forward with, on follow-on efforts. c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 43

DEFENSE

Korean Air Designs strator, the Kaori-X, in 2015. This dealt

with some of the larger developmental
Stealth Drone Demonstrator challenges, especially control in flight
and fast taxiing, the sources say.
> REPUBLIC OF KOREA AIR FORCE WANTS A RECONNAISSANCE Korean Air displayed a model of
VERSION FIRST the KUS-FC at the Seoul Aerospace
and Defense Exhibition in October
> ENGINE WORK IS UNDERWAY, BUT MAYBE NOT FOR THIS AIRCRAFT 2019. But the model was the same one
that the company had showed at the
Bradley Perrett and Kim Minseok Seoul exhibition in 2011, when the concept
was called KUS-X. That was when

N
ine years ago, the Republic of initially for surveillance and recon- the air force said it wanted to bring
Korea Air Force hoped to have naissance versions only, according a strike drone into service in 2030; it
an unmanned combat aircraft to other sources who are familiar was envisaged as a first-tier aircraft,
in service by 2030. If funding becomes with defense planning. Engineering a alongside the Lockheed Martin F-35
available soon, it could have at least a drone for weapon delivery would be Lightning and Boeing F-15K, while the
stealthy reconnaissance and surveil- much harder. Korea Aerospace Industries KF-X and
lance drone ready by then, according Korean Air proposes a considerable FA-50 filled the next two tiers.
to officials close to a Korean Air pro- aircraft, obviously designed for con- Getting the drone ready by then is
gram for such an aircraft. trolling radar reflections. The wing- still achievable if the ministry soon

This model of Korean Air’s

stealthy drone proposal was
first displayed in 2011 and
probably no longer represents
the intended design.
BRADLEY PERRETT/AW&ST

The company is preparing a design span of the blended-wing-body design, funds the building and testing of a full-
for a full-scale technology demon- KUS-FC, is 16 m (53 ft.) and the length scale technology demonstrator, the
strator for the proposed type. But is 10 m. The X-47B technology demon- sources say. According to them, sev-
the program lacks funding for flight strator that Northrop Grumman built eral missions are being considered for
testing, according to one of several for the U.S. had a span of 18.9 m. the aircraft, not including air combat.
sources who discussed it with Aviation A parallel program is working on The current design, on which Kore-
Week. It is run by the defense minis- engines for unmanned aircraft. But an Air began work in 2016, is probably
try’s Agency for Defense Development the prospective timing of KUS-FC rather different to that depicted by the
(ADD), which is undertaking much of development and the size of the air- mockup. In 2016 ADD published a de-
the related technology effort. craft raises doubts that it could use sign with greater wing chord than the
The Republic of Korea Air Force an indigenous powerplant. Kaori-X and the mockup.
wants to operate such an aircraft. The Endurance for the KUS-FC is in- At that time, the agency was plan-
Korean Air design includes a weap- tended to be 6 hr. ning to build a mockup with a 15-m
on bay, but the air force is looking The ADD flew a subscale demon- span—for testing of radar cross-sec-

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

tions—and eight subscale test aircraft Enlargement of wing
with spans of 3 m. Progress with the and fuselage from
little test aircraft is unknown, but the earlier Kaori-X design
sources say no money is available yet
to build and fly the full-scale design.
Inlet Duct
In Korean Air’s design, the air- Exhaust Duct
frame consists of carbon-fiber-re-
inforced plastic over an aluminum
substructure. The exact choice of
materials is still subject to review,
one source says.
Research and development is be-
ing done at the South Korean city of
Daejeon, where the ADD is based.
Production would be undertaken at
Korean Air’s factory near Busan. A
production rate of two aircraft per
month is proposed.
The cost of building and testing
a full-scale demonstrator would be
much less than $100 million, the
sources say, noting that the equivalent
phase of the Korean Air MUAV drone
project did not cost nearly as much as
ADD’s preliminary design published in 2016.
that. The MUAV is a medium-altitude,
long-endurance surveillance aircraft. SOURCE: AGENCY FOR DEFENSE DEVELOPMENT. ILLUSTRATION: COLIN THROM/AW&ST
With a straight, slim wing, it hardly
provided all the knowledge for flight
control the ADD and Korean Air need established a research center for enough for only exploratory work.
for a swept blended-wing-body jet. gas-turbine engines for drones in De- The X-47B used the Pratt &
One particular issue undertaken cember 2018. The title indicates that Whitney F100-PW-220U, a nonafter-
with the Kaori-X was to ensure that its scope of work could include turbo- burning version of a powerful fighter
the aircraft did not flip over on its props, turbojets and turbofans. engine. It generated 16,000-lb. thrust.
back when running fast on the ground, In January, DAPA and ADD named For equal flight performance, the
one source says. Hanwha Aerospace as prime contrac- KUS-FC would probably need around
Meanwhile, work on engine re- tor for a UAV turbofan development 10,000-lb. thrust—again, without af-
search and development is stepping project, news agency News1 report- terburning. No South Korean program
up. The ministry’s Defense Acquisi- ed. The budget up to 2025 is 88 bil- for an engine of anything like that size
tion Program Administration (DAPA) lion won ($74 million), which looks like is known. c

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AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 45

 DEFENSE

Post-Brexit Defense Review simply too soon for a thorough anal-

ysis of Britain’s future defense needs.
Challenged by Costs and Coronavirus “If you are to have a strategy that
is worth the name, you must address
ends, ways and means together. . . . If
> UK MINISTERS WANT TO COMPLETE THE REVIEW WITHIN MONTHS
you do not do the whole package, in-
> EQUIPMENT PLANS ARE STILL CHALLENGED BY BUDGET DEFICITS cluding the money, together, then you
do not have a strategic review,” Jock
Stirrup, a former chief of the Roy-
Tony Osborne London al Air Force (RAF) and UK Defense
Staff, told parliamentary defense com-

P
ost-Brexit Britain is taking its notably the Foreign Office, the Defense mittee hearings on March 17.
first steps toward understand- Ministry and the Department for In- The 2020 review represents a break
ing its place in the world and ternational Development—consider- from the traditional defense-led Stra-
the military capabilities it may need able focus is likely to be on defense. It tegic Defense and Security Review
to ensure it can hold onto that status. has the largest budget of those under (SDSR) usually held every five years.
A review, described by Prime the microscope and an oft-criticized Some analysts contend the 2020 edi-
Minister Boris Johnson as the most procurement process that some in tion could shape defense capabilities
extensive of its kind since the end of government are eager to overhaul. for decades to come. Jack Watling,
the Cold War, is examining the UK’s The process will run in parallel Land Warfare research fellow at the
foreign, defense, security and devel- with the government’s comprehensive London-based Royal United Services
opment policies. And it is proceeding spending review. That assessment Institute (RUSI) says the review
despite the challenges and costs sur- decides UK government spending for would have to make “hard choices”
rounding the COVID-19 pandemic. the next three years and will deliver but that these would “determine the
Although it will examine the work its findings potentially as early as this trajectory of the UK’s defense capa-
of several government departments— summer. Some critics argue that is bilities for a generation.”

Britain is committed to 138 F-35s

but has yet to budget for 90 of them.
SAC AMY LUPTON/ROYAL AIR FORCE

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 He notes that for a post-Brexit lion) over the next 10 years, equivalent
Britain looking to expand its trading to 42% of the ministry budget during
and security partners, future conflicts that period. Auditors say the Defense
may be difficult to avoid. “Security Ministry has a shortfall of at least £2.9
and trade partnerships are closely billion over that period, but this could
intertwined. . . . If ‘Global Britain’ be as high as £13 billion.
means diversifying our economic Although the UK is expanding its
partnerships, it will be necessary intelligence, surveillance and recon-
to build meaningful security ties as naissance (ISR) capabilities with
well,” Watling says. the upcoming arrival of the General
The UK must look at its role in the Atomics Protector unmanned aircraft
Euro-Atlantic alliance and in the Great system and deliveries of the Boeing P-8
Power competition, in addition to oth- Poseidon maritime patroller—two of
er global issues and homeland secu- which have already arrived—capability
rity, Defense Minister Ben Wallace gaps in the ISR mission are imminent.
told Parliament. The review will also The planned retirement of the
“place prosperity and manufacturing RAF’s long-suffering Boeing E-3D
at its heart,” he added. Sentry fleet has been pushed to
The assessment comes at a chal- December 2022. But the Boeing E-7
lenging time for Britain’s defense and Wedgetail, the 737-based platform
its equipment-procurement plans. planned as its replacement, is not due
The National Audit Office recently to enter service until the end of 2023,
warned that for a third consecutive potentially leaving a yearlong capabil-
year there will be shortfalls in the ity gap. The RAF also plans to retire
budget. The ministry’s plans call for its Raytheon Sentinel radar-recon-
the spending of £183.6 billion ($214 bil- naissance platform in March 2021. It
got several reprieves after its Afghan-
istan duties ended, but its departure
would leave the UK without a standoff
ground-moving-target-indicator and
synthetic aperture radar platform.
Several commitments made in the
2015 SDSR, such as the UK’s decision
to commit all 138 Lockheed Martin
F-35 Joint Strike Fighters across the
lifetime of the program, have also
not been budgeted, auditors note.
Current plans forecast only the costs
of the first 48 aircraft. The govern-
ment says that “decisions on future
numbers and aircraft variants will be
●
taken at the relevant time,” but it is
unclear whether this will be consid- ●
ered in the review.
The British government is aiming
●
to maintain the target of 2% of GDP
set by NATO for all allies. Defense
ministers have said they will fight to
meet that share, and more if need-
ed, although the UK has a history of
not fully funding post-review defense
portfolios. “It is not a review designed
to cut costs,” says Jeremy Quin, min-
ister for defense procurement. “It is
a review designed to ensure we know
what we are doing in the world and
that [this is achieved] through really
effective equipment.”
Along with defining capabilities re-
quired for land, sea and air, the review
is also likely to conclude that the UK
should make additional investment in
both the cyber and space domains. c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 47

 DEFENSE

DEFENSE AIRCRAFT
OPPORTUNITIES
IN SOUTH AMERICA
Across South America, militaries have ongoing
requirements for fighters, attack helicopters and
surveillance aircraft. Here is a snapshot of some of the
COLOMBIA
outstanding requirements that could translate into
In July 2019, the Colombian
new acquisitions over the course of the 2020s, Air Force short-listed three
according to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network. teams in its quest to replace a
fleet of Israel Aerospace Indus-
Daniel Urchick and Matt Joupi Washington tries Kfir fighters. Seeking 18 aircraft
when funds are available, Colombia
will turn to the Eurofighter Typhoon,
Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Block 70/72
or the Saab JAS 39.
The Colombian Navy wants to ex-
pand its maritime surveillance fleet
of three Airbus CN-235 maritime

GOVERNMENT OF ARGENTINA

PARAGUAY
The Paraguayan Air Force is seeking to replace its EMB-312A Tucano aircraft
with a fleet of six light combat aircraft. Officials from the service observed the
U.S. Air Force’s OA-X trials in 2017 between the Embraer A-29 and Textron AT-6.
Argentina’s Fabrica Militar de Aviones (FMA) is also offering its IA-63 Pampa
to fill the requirement.
BACKGROUND: CHAINARONG PRASERT/THAI GETTY IMAGES AND CHARCOM/GETTY IMAGES

CHILE
PERU DASSAULT
The Chilean Air Force plans to retire
Peru began studying its requirement for fighter aircraft in 2018 and is still its Boeing EB-707 Phalcon around
looking to replace its air force’s Dassault Mirage 2000 and Mikoyan MiG-29 2025. Last year, officials from Saab
fleets with a single type of aircraft. Contending for the role are the Dassault met with senior service officials to
Rafale, Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50, Lockheed Martin F-16 and Mikoy- discuss further requirements for
an MiG-35. airborne early warning and control
The country is also considering the purchase of an airborne early warning aircraft. The service has a require-
and control aircraft, either the Embraer 145 or Saab 340 as part of its effort ment for one such aircraft and is
to modernize through 2025. And it is seeking a dozen light utility helicopters
to conduct search-and-rescue missions.

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 W&ST
TONY OSBORNE/A

BRAZIL
The Brazilian Army has a strategic program for aviation revealing its desire
to acquire a new attack helicopter by 2021, and the Navy may partner on the
purchase. A number of companies are contending for the chance at making
12 aircraft for each service, including the Airbus Tiger, Bell AH-1Z Viper,
the Boeing AH-64E Apache and the Turkish Aerospace Industries T129 ATAK.

LOCK
HEED
MAR
TIN

patrollers with four new aircraft.

It may opt to continue with the
CN-235 or pick up the ATR 42-300
or the Beechcraft B350i.
$520 MILLION
The amount of Brazilian aircraft exports in 2009-19,
according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

South American Military Aircraft Imports

2009-19 (in U.S. $ millions)

Argentina 145

Bolivia 117

Brazil 795
SAAB

Chile 673

Colombia 799
reportedly considering the Saab
GlobalEye and the China Electronics
Technology Group Corp. Y-9. Ecuador 317
The Chilean Army expects to
order six light-to-medium tactical Peru 430
transport aircraft around 2021. The
primary contenders are the Airbus
C295 and the Leonardo C-27J. Venezuela 448

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 49

PROPULSION

NASA Planning Electrified Propulsion tested a 1-megawatt motor and demon-

strated 1 megawatt of dual-spool power
Flight Demonstrations extraction from an F110 fighter engine.
GE Research Center is now devel-
> FIVE CONTRACTORS ARE DETAILING DEMONSTRATION PROPOSALS oping a flight-ready 1-megawatt DC-
to-AC inverter using silicon carbide
> THE PROJECT WOULD BUILD ON PLANNED INDUSTRY TESTBEDS power electronics under a $12 million
collaboration with NASA. This will be
tested at simulated 30,000-ft. altitude
in the NASA Electric Aircraft Testbed
facility at Plum Brook Station, Ohio.

Ampaire has converted a pair of

Cessna 337 Skymasters to hybrid-
electric propulsion testbeds.
Pratt has kept quiet about its NASA
project work but is likely studying in-

AMPAIRE
tegration of a megawatt-class motor/
generator into a second-generation
geared turbofan optimized for more
Guy Norris Los Angeles and Graham Warwick Washington electric aircraft. Under Project 804,
Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whit-
ney Canada are designing a parallel

A
cknowledging the rapid evolu- in June 2019 will be completed this hybrid-electric demonstrator based
tion of the electric aircraft June. NASA also let EAP contracts to on a de Havilland Canada Dash 8.
market, NASA wants to tap startups Ampaire and Wright Elec- “We are asking [the contractors]
into industry plans for electrified tric in September 2019 that will be what it will take to mature a 1-mega-
power-train demonstrators to advance completed this September. Contrac- watt-class power train. What are the
toward its ultimate goal of applying tors were assigned 12 tasks, including ground and flight tests that will be
the technology to single-aisle airliners. outlining plans for a flying testbed needed?” says Collier. “Then we are
NASA is planning an Electrified under the EPFD. focusing on the flight-test vehicle it-
Powertrain Flight Demonstration NASA’s notional timeline for elec- self. And we’ve asked each of them to
(EPFD) project that would build on trified power-train development begins describe the technical plan and risks
component technology work now un- with the technology maturation already associated with the flight test, the cost
derway, take advantage of power-train underway, progresses through ground and the schedule.”
demonstrators already planned by in- and flight tests of turboprop-focused NASA is beginning with turbo-
dustry and lead to a possible “multi- demonstrators to turbofan-focused prop-focused electrified propulsion
technology” subsonic X-plane. A testbeds and culminates in a “multi- “because there are a lot of demon-
follow-on to NASA’s X-59 QueSST low- tech” X-plane aimed at an eventual strators on the drawing board, and
boom supersonic flight demonstrator, electrified single-aisle airliner. people are starting to execute,” he
this could combine electrified propul- Ampaire is flying a hybrid-electric says. “We’re moving toward a turbo-
sion with an unconventional configu- demonstrator based on the Cessna 337 prop-based demonstration because
ration for an ultraefficient airliner. Skymaster, which it plans to certify as it’s a great learning tool. It’s a good
Planned to begin in fiscal 2021, the the 4-6-seat Electric EEL. Under its place to start. Using a turboprop test-
EPFD would prove technology for EAP contract with NASA, Ampaire bed will be applicable to future larger
electrified propulsion in the 1-mega- is working with Ikhana Aircraft Ser- applications as well.”
watt power range, for aircraft enter- vices to study modifying the 19-seat de The path to turbofan-focused elec-
ing service in 2030-35. NASA believes Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otter trified propulsion is less clear. “[But]
electrified propulsion could reduce to parallel hybrid-electric propulsion. we are doing all this to ensure this
both total energy and maintenance Wright is ground-testing a nine-seat technology suite will eventually im-
costs for future commercial aircraft. aircraft modified to hybrid-electric pact the turbofan OEMs,” says Col-
As a first step, NASA awarded five propulsion and aimed at the private lier. “We believe all the learning that
Electric Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) aviation market. It has also launched comes from simple and not-so-simple
contracts to manufacturers for project development of a 1.5-megawatt, 3-kilo- turboprop demonstrations will lead to
planning and risk reduction. “All are volt power train as the foundation of good understanding.” He cites knowl-
focused on future flight demonstra- the propulsion system for a 186-seat edge on integration with the aircraft
tions to be executed under EPFD,” short-haul electric airliner aimed at and the cockpit, where batteries are
says Fay Collier, associate director for entry into service around 2030. located and cables run.
flight strategy in NASA’s Integrated Boeing is exploring electric propul- “A lot of the integration issues will be
Aviation Systems Program. sion at a small scale through urban air worked as we focus on the power train,”
Initial contracts awarded to Boeing, mobility programs with multiple sub- says Collier. “Keep in mind that we are
General Electric and Pratt & Whitney sidiaries and partners. GE Aviation has very focused on power-train demon-

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 stration. With this new project it’s ing,” says Collier. “The bigger the air- plan for what comes after the X-59
not about anybody’s favorite [aircraft] plane gets, the harder it’s going to be supersonic demonstrator. Four years
configuration for that technology.” and the longer it’s going to take.” The ago, NASA envisaged an Ultra-Effi-
NASA’s next step is project for- focus on 1 megawatt represents “the cient Subsonic Technology (UEST)
mulation for a five-year EPFD effort sweet spot,” he says. “You can work up X-plane, proposals for which were
beginning in October, assuming Con- or down in size from there and make dominated by blended wing-body
gress approves the agency’s fiscal quite a bit of impact. So it’s low-hang- (BWB) designs from Boeing, Dzyne
2021 budget request. Funded under ing fruit, and you can get a quick start.” Technologies and Lockheed Martin.
a preformulation effort, the five EAP A megawatt-class electric motor But NASA’s subsonic project was
contracts call for details of each com- is four times the state of the art in subsequently redirected away from
pany’s proposed testbed. “I gave each power terms. “That is no small thing,” BWBs to focus more on hybrid-elec-
of them a chance to describe a couple says Collier. “A megawatt will enable tric and all-electric concepts, and the
of fairly low-level risk-reduction paths electric propulsion to move from agency sees the EPFD as an oppor-
that they would want to take toward small to large. We can start small tunity to springboard into a broad-
a flight demonstrator, and they’re all with thin-haul and regional aircraft, er, more comprehensive follow-on
different,” Collier says. and these small projects will ulti- X-plane with a significantly recrafted
Examples of questions to be an- mately impact single-aisles, where UEST effort. “We’re still trying to de-
swered are: “What are the human NASA traditionally focuses.” fine what would effectively be a ‘multi-
system integration issues associat- This also means “we don’t have to tech’ airframe and propulsion demon-
ed with the testbed? If you’re in the wait for 20-megawatt capability. How strator. And this electrified propulsion
cockpit, how will you control this are we going to do this with a sin- thing we’re doing right now could fit
thing?” he says. “How is it going to be gle-aisle replacement airplane that right into that,” Collier says.
integrated with tests that help peo- needs that much power? That’s not go- The revised approach is also more
ple working on the ground around the ing to happen for a long, long time,” says holistic, says Jimmy Kenyon, director
airplane or in the airplane? We also Collier. “Hopefully, we can kick-start of NASA’s Advanced Air Vehicles Pro-
want to make sure that we have safe this thing so we can get something done gram. “We’re looking at a combination
of flight testing through
GE’s flight-weight 1-megawatt inverter will be the demonstrators as
well as ground testing
tested at simulated altitude in the NASA Electric in our facilities at NASA
Aircraft Testbed. or with some of our
partners to understand
how to mature the ar-
chitectures and the in-
dividual components. A
very important
part of that is
understanding
the interaction
effects in an appropri-
ate environment.”
“Right now, we’re
looking at how to make
the best use of what’s
going on around the
country with differ-
NASA

ent industry partners

and how to reduce the
operation of the flying testbed.” that’s meaningful, and maybe acceler- risk relative to making a decision on
NASA is also exploring the option ates progress toward larger systems.” how we could go forward with a ve-
of a government-furnished “common” Bob Pearce, NASA associate admin- hicle that would demonstrate either
flying testbed that could be either istrator for aeronautics, says the strat- an all-electric or hybrid-electric air-
owned and operated by industry or egy of focusing on the 1-megawatt class craft,” says Ed Waggoner, deputy as-
flown as a NASA-operated asset. The builds on component and system work sociate administrator for programs.
EAP contractors have been asked to already underway within the agency. “To do that, we’re going to take ad-
describe their requirements for such “The systems, motors and so forth vantage of assets that maybe industry
a common testbed as well as the pros tested so far are maybe not at the flight already has in place and partner with
and cons of using this approach ver- weights we would like to get to, but are them to do things that work along
sus providing their own vehicles. significantly more advanced than what with their individual industry strat-
As early applications of electrified you can get commercially off the shelf.” egies, as well as what we at NASA
propulsion are likely to be smaller in A key consideration for the EPFD think are the big barriers to start ad-
size, “the smaller guys are going to is how electrified propulsion technol- dressing to make this a reality for the
have the advantage in terms of tim- ogy might fold into NASA’s evolving country.” c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 51

 URBAN AIR MOBILITY

Transcend Refines Design model. The Vy 400’s three-blade ro-

tors will be designed for a maximum
for Intercity VTOL climb rate of 4,750 fpm and hover
speed of 40 mph.
> THERE HAS BEEN A SWITCH TO A BIGGER ENGINE AS DESIGN MATURES Work is also underway to perfect
the fly-by-wire flight control system,
> LARGER TAIL FAN IMPROVES STABILITY AND CONTROL which will use electric actuators and
incorporate envelope protection to en-
Guy Norris Los Angeles sure a safe transition between vertical
and forward flight.

T
argeting intercity flights with a svelte nacelles. The fact is, in terms “We have collective [pitch], wing
new generation of vertical-take- of wetted area, the aircraft is largely tilt, a throttle, and we have pitch, roll
off-and-landing (VTOL) air- unchanged.” and yaw,” says Schmidt. “This lets us
craft, startup Transcend Air is poised The vehicle will be stretched slightly control the degrees of freedom right
to start subscale flight tests of a re- to increase the effectiveness of an elec- now, so we are adding control laws
vised version of its tiltwing Vy 400. tric-driven tail fan used for stability over time. We go out and fly it and see
and control. “We’re how it responds. In helicopter mode
TRANSCEND AIR

trying to front-load the aircraft self-levels, and I can tran-

the design as much sition by adding collective to get what-
as possible, which is ever rate of climb I want and by tilting
why we’ve been flying the wing down. The result is it’s really
it at one-fifth scale. two buttons right now to go from take-
We have learned a off to transition and it would be trivial
few things, one of to totally automate that.”
which is that it would Tests of the prototype version of
be nice if it is a little the flight control software and refine-
bit longer. We are go- ment of the control laws are being
ing to be extending undertaken for the full-scale Vy 400
The Vy 400 is a single-turbine, five-passenger tiltwing the tail fan further using the X-Plane flight simulator. “We
VTOL being designed for scheduled intercity services. backward and mak- have achieved full-envelope stability
ing the fan larger for augmentation in all flight modes, in-
The Boston-based company is additional pitch authority,” says Bruell. cluding ‘push-button’ takeoffs and
designing the Vy 400 for scheduled The more powerful tail fan, pow- transitions, and are now fine-tuning
mass-transit services with a pilot and ered by an engine-driven Yasa electric handling qualities,” Schmidt says.
up to five passengers on busy routes motor, is being installed on one of the Intended to be certified under the
such as New York-Boston and Los company’s two 7.5-ft.-

TRANSCEND AIR
Angeles-San Francisco. With a max- span test vehicles,
imum takeoff gross weight of almost says Chief Operating
7,000 lb. and a useful load of 2,190 lb., Officer Peter Schmidt,
the pressurized aircraft is targeted at former president and
cruise speeds up to 405 mph (350 kt.) CEO of air-taxi oper-
and operating altitudes up to 20,000 ft. ator Linear Air. “We
The Vy 400 is designed around a sin- are embarking on he-
gle turboshaft engine that is mounted licopter-mode qualifi-
in the rear fuselage and drives wingtip cation flights prior to
proprotors via gearboxes and shafts. getting back on our
The company originally planned to use truck-based test rig
a 1,700-shp Pratt & Whitney PT6A-67F, for airplane-mode data
similar to the -67A variant powering collection,” he adds.
Leonardo’s AW609 civil tiltrotor, but Schmidt also says A larger electric-driven tail fan will improve stability
says it will now use a 2,000-shp-class analysis and simu- and control in vertical flight mode.
CT7-2E1, a version of General Elec- lation of Transcend
tric’s CT7/T700 family powering the Air’s latest full-scale propeller design combined FAA Part 23 commuter,
AW149/189 helicopters. “achieves our high/hot hover-out-of- Part 27 rotorcraft and Part 21.17(b)
“We have come to realize that, ground-effect and max cruise perfor- tiltwing/tiltrotor categories, the Vy
with the sizing of the geartrain at this mance targets while reducing noise, 400 is targeted at entry into service
point, we are going to end up with a rotating at just over Mach 0.5 at the around the middle of the decade. De-
CT7,” says Transcend CEO Gregory tips in hover.” pending on the completion of addi-
Bruell. “Engine selection is driven With Transcend targeting in- tional funding rounds, the program
entirely by weight and size. We could ner-city sites such as floating helipads could come together in under three
put smaller gearboxes in there if we on rivers for operating locations, the years, says Schmidt. “It’s a little ambi-
had higher-speed driveshafts in the company says high performance with tious, but it is a very simple aircraft,”
wing, but we wanted to stick with our low noise is critical to its business he adds. c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

TECHNOLOGY

NATS
Large data flows make air traffic management well suited
Europe Provides First to artificial intelligence, Eurocontrol says.
Guidance to Industry on concludes that industry anticipates the first approval of an
Applying AI to Aviation ML system in commercial aviation in 2025. Single-pilot op-
erations would debut in 2030, and autonomous operations
would follow in 2035.
> EASA EXPECTS FIRST MACHINE-LEARNING To meet these expectations, EASA plans to publish the
APPROVALS BY 2025 “first usable guidance” in 2021 for ML-based applications
in “human assistance and augmentation.” Guidance for
> EUROCONTROL WANTS TO ACCELERATE “human-machine collaboration” would follow in 2022 and
USE OF AI IN ATM that for “more autonomous” aircraft in 2024. EASA says it
received the first applications in 2019 for projects planning
Thierry Dubois Lyon, France to make “limited use of AI/ML solutions.”
Eurocontrol, meanwhile, believes aviation and air traffic

E
urope is taking a lead in providing guidance on how management (ATM) are ideally placed to take full advan-
artificial intelligence could affect aviation. Describing tage of AI. An action plan to advance the technology’s use
it as potentially the most disruptive innovation facing is detailed in the Fly AI report released on March 5 and
the industry, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency prepared with partners including Airbus, Thales and the
(EASA) has released a road map for AI, while Eurocontrol International Air Transport Association.
has published an action plan to accelerate development of The goal of the report is “to advance understanding among
AI in aviation and air traffic management. aviation and ATM actors of AI and its potential, to ‘demystify
“The possibilities of AI will increasingly be used in avia- AI’ and to help accelerate its uptake in aviation,” Eurocon-
tion and will make autonomous flights, preventive mainte- trol says, adding that aviation and ATM can take advantage
nance and optimization of air traffic management possible,” of AI because of the large data flows the sector generates.
said EASA Executive Director Patrick Ky in February at AI has huge potential for use in areas where it can “reduce
the unveiling of the first edition of the agency’s Artificial human workload or increase human capabilities in complex
Intelligence Roadmap. scenarios,” the report states. Air traffic controllers, pilots,
The document, which will be updated annually, begins airport operators and cybersecurity officers could therefore
to address manufacturers’ questions on how to certify AI- benefit, it adds. AI can also play a fundamental role as new
based systems. Central to EASA’s vision is the concept of users such as drone operators seek to enter the airspace.
trustworthiness. According to the road map, the building Functions for AI will include tools for capacity prediction,
blocks of trustworthy AI are learning assurance, explain- conflict detection, traffic advisories and resolutions. The
ability and safety risk mitigation. The concept of learning technology is expected to “[enhance the] use of scarce re-
assurance includes data preparation, algorithm selection sources” such as airspace, runways and staff, the report says.
and parameter tuning. The report’s action plan recommends the creation of a
Explainable AI needs further investigation, the document federated AI infrastructure for training and AI application
says, as machine-learning (ML) behaviors cannot be val- development, accelerated deployment of AI in cyber and
idated using conventional approaches because they lack non-safety-critical areas, more research into safety-critical
predictability and explainability. “Consequently, there is a operations, and fostering of an “AI culture” through train-
need to make more understandable the conditions that led ing and skill-building and through partnerships with other
to a given output,” the road map states. industrial sectors.
ML is expected to change the relationship between the “With European aviation facing growing pressure to re-
pilot and the aircraft. “AI may assist the crew by advising duce its environmental impact, as well as persistent capac-
on routine tasks or . . . may help the crew make decisions in ity bottlenecks, we need more sophisticated changes on the
high-workload circumstances,” the road map states. EASA ground and in the air—and quickly,” European Transport
identifies icing detection as another potential application. Commissioner Adina Valean said at the report’s unveiling.
After talking to “major players,” including Airbus, EASA “AI can be a key ally in pursuit of this goal.” c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 53

SPACE > NASA Moon contract plans p. 56 SLS cost overrun p. 57 SpaceX’s push for speed p. 58 Space Force ups the ante p. 62

Servicing in Space RSGS plans to demonstrate ren-

dezvous, inspection, repair, recon-
figuration, refueling and relocation
of a cooperating GEO satellite. “The
> DARPA TO SUPPLY ROBOTIC PAYLOAD FOR MRV SERVICER new robotics technology on this mis-
sion advances our vision to build a
> MRV WILL BUILD ON NORTHROP’S LIFE-EXTENSION MEV fleet of satellite-servicing vehicles
that provide customers with a va-
Graham Warwick and Jen DiMascio Washington riety of options to select the type of
life-extension or in-orbit repairs they

H
ard on the heels of its first Mis- Northrop’s first MEV docked with need,” says Tom Wilson, president of
sion Extension Vehicle (MEV) Intelsat’s IS-901 satellite just out- SpaceLogistics.
docking with a client satellite in side GEO on Feb. 25. Once attached, Northrop and Intelsat hailed the au-
geostationary orbit, Northrop Grum- MEV-1 took over position and atti- tonomous docking of MEV-1 with IS-
man subsidiary SpaceLogistics has tude control of the satellite and is 901 as “historic.” After launch by Pro-
signed on as DARPA’s commercial part- now moving it back to GEO, where ton rocket in October from Baikonur,
ner for the Robotic Servicing of Geosyn- it will resume service. Kazakhstan, the servicing spacecraft
chronous Satellites (RSGS) program. A second servicer, MEV-2, is to used its electric propulsion to raise
The role became available in Janu- be launched this year to dock with a its orbit, while IS-901 was moved to
ary 2019, when Maxar Technologies’ second Intelsat satellite in GEO. On a graveyard orbit 300 km above GEO.
subsidiary SSL withdrew as DARPA’s completion of their initial five-year On Feb. 1, the MEV-1 arrived in
commercial partner, citing financial missions, MEV-1 and -2 will undock the same orbit as IS-901 and began
pressures. and are expected to provide life-ex- maneuvering to rendezvous and
Under the agreement, DARPA tension services to other satellites for dock with the satellite. The servicing
will provide the robotics payload for spacecraft began a series of approach
SpaceLogistics’ Mission Robotic Ve- DARPA will provide the robotics maneuvers during which Northrop
hicle (MRV), already planned as its payload for Northrop Grumman’s tested and tuned the visual, infrared
next step in satellite servicing after MRV satellite-servicing vehicle. and lidar sensors used for rendezvous
and docking.
By Feb. 24, the distance between
MEV-1 and IS-901 had been reduced
to 80 m (260 ft.), and in the early
hours of Feb. 25, the spacecraft ap-
proached its final waypoint. There, it
awaited permission from ground con-
trol to proceed, says Joe Anderson,
vice president of operations and busi-
ness development for SpaceLogistics.
Mission control gave the command
to dock and MEV-1 autonomously in-
serted its docking probe into the noz-
zle and through the throat of IS-901’s
liquid apogee engine. The probe
deployed a capture mechanism and
then retracted, pulling stanchions on
the servicer up against the satellite’s
NORTHROP GRUMMAN launch adapter ring and securing the
spacecraft together.
the MEV. The company will provide another 10 years, SpaceLogistics says. The servicing spacecraft then took
the spacecraft bus and will launch and Meanwhile, Northrop has begun control of IS-901’s position and atti-
operate the MRV during its on-or- development of the Mission Extension tude, reorienting the satellite back
bit demonstration for DARPA, then Pod (MEP), a smaller and less expen- toward Earth within a few seconds,
continue to own and operate the ro- sive propulsion module that the MRV Anderson says. The MEV-1’s pro-
botic servicer in geostationary orbit will attach to a client spacecraft. The pulsion system is now moving the
(GEO)—providing services to com- MEP performs orbital control only for combined spacecraft back to geosyn-
mercial and government customers. up to five years but remains attached chronous orbit, where it is expected
The MRV bus will leverage the permanently to the satellite. to resume customer service by late
MEV, which is designed to attach it- The DARPA-supplied payload for April or early May, says Intelsat CEO
self to a client satellite and extend its the MRV, developed and integrated by Stephen Spengler.
operational life in GEO by up to five the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Northrop declines to reveal the cost
years. The MEV, in turn, is based on comprises two dexterous robotic ma- of MEV-1, but IS-901 had only months
Northrop Grumman’s GEOStar com- nipulator arms along with multiple sen- of fuel remaining and Intelsat “saw a
mercial satellite bus. sors and several interchangeable tools. solid business case to use the service

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

to extend the customer service life of simulated,” says Jean-Luc Froeliger, that are at end-of-life—or given up for
IS-901 for another five years,” Spengler vice president of space systems engi- dead—and finding ways to reuse them,
says. “The economics made sense for neering and operations at Intelsat. maybe in different ways,” he says.
us in terms of revenues generated and Due to the low transients, during Satellite manufacturer Airbus is
capital investment deferred.” the next mission the satellite will not less certain of the value. “We had
be moved to graveyard orbit for its our own activity, which we called the
docking with MEV-2. It will instead SpaceTug. We stopped it at the pre-
remain in its operational GEO loca- liminary design review at the end of
tion providing uninterrupted service 2018. The technology was feasible, but
to customers, he says. we had significant questions about the
business case,” Oliver Juckenhoefel,
The docking probe on Northrop’s Airbus senior vice president of on-
MEV-1 captured Intelsat 901 via its orbit services and exploration, told
liquid apogee engine nozzle. reporters at the Satellite 2020 show.
“In 2017, when we started these
The feat has excited at least one initiatives, there was so much confu-
potential customer: the U.S. Defense sion in the market. Companies were
Department. “To take a satellite that interested in temporarily prolonging
was at end-of-life and have another the life of satellites to avoid having to
satellite take control of it and give it make an investment decision,” he says.
new life—that has opened up a lot of “We don’t know whether there will
NORTHROP GRUMMAN
thinking for us,” says John London, be a market or not. Northrop seems
Services were shut down, and IS- chief engineer for space and strategic to be convinced, and I like that very
901 was moved to graveyard orbit as systems at U.S. Army Space and Mis- much. We are not investing our own
a safety precaution before the rendez- sile Defense Command. money because we don’t see a com-
vous with MEV-1, but the transient ef- “We are now looking at ways that mercial market, but we believe we
fects observed during docking of the we can repurpose not just communi- need to be prepared,” Juckenhoefel
two spacecraft were “much less than cation satellites but other satellites says. c

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AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 55

SPACE

BUILDING
ARTEMIS > NASA SPEEDING UP
PROCUREMENT PROCESSES

> ALTERNATIVE CONTRACTING

METHODS TAPPED FOR MOON PLAN

> LUNAR POWER AND PROPULSION

ELEMENT CONTRACT SIGNED IN HOURS

Irene Klotz Washington Maxar is building the Lunar Gateway

W
power and propulsion element under
hether or not NASA makes its 2024 deadline for land-
an unusual partnership arrangement
ing astronauts on the Moon remains to be seen, but with NASA.
the expedited schedule, ordered by President Donald
Trump, already has made an impact in the key but Once commercial capabilities were
understated realm of government contracting. demonstrated, the agency purchased
flight services from SpaceX and
NASA originally targeted 2028 for Gold, an attorney and business devel- Northrop Grumman for station resup-
its first crewed Moon landing since opment guru who chaired the NASA ply runs, with a third vendor, Sierra
the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. Prior to Advisory Council Regulatory and Nevada, slated to begin flying cargo in
landing astronauts, the agency plans Policy Committee until joining the 2021. SpaceX and Boeing are following
to assemble a small outpost in lunar agency in December. a similar path toward crewed flights.
orbit, beginning with a commercially “Without a date, without that goal, For the deep-space Artemis initia-
procured power and propulsion ele- procurements can lag. There’s less pres- tive, NASA is taking its alternative con-
ment (PPE). sure, priority and emphasis to move tracting methodologies into uncharted
The PPE competition was under- forward,” says Gold, who serves as the terrain. The PPE, for example, will be
way when the Trump administration acting associate administrator for inter- developed, launched, owned and oper-
in March 2019 ordered NASA to shave national and interagency relations. ated by Maxar for a one-year demon-
four years off the schedule to land as- NASA has always been ahead of the stration period, then either leased or
tronauts on the Moon, under a pro- curve when it comes to government purchased by NASA to become part of
gram now known as Artemis. procurement methods. the lunar-orbiting Gateway.
Two months later, on May 23, NASA “The Space Act Agreement (SAA) In late March or April, NASA ex-
selected Maxar Technologies to pro- vehicle—the original Other Transac- pects to award Artemis cargo flight
vide the PPE—and signed the con- tion Authority—was developed explic- service contracts. Also pending are
tract the same day. “It was only a few itly and originally for NASA because study contracts for commercially pro-
hours between notification and receipt we simply didn’t know what we’d be vided human lunar landing systems.
of the fully executed contract,” says Al dealing with in space,” Gold tells Avi- The elements of the Artemis pro-
Tadros, Maxar vice president of Space ation Week. “And therefore the gov- gram, primarily based on technical
Infrastructure and Civil Space. ernment deemed it necessary for the proposals and business plans offered in
Typically, U.S. government contracts agency to have an inherently flexible response to Broad Agency Announce-
with the complexity and value of the procurement vehicle.” ments (BAA), will be integrated by
$375 million PPE agreement take a Facing the end of the space shuttle NASA following evaluations and se-
few months to negotiate and finalize, program, NASA turned to SAAs to lections of industry partners.
he adds. woo companies first to invest in devel- Under the umbrella of NASA’s Next-
Having the 2024 deadline has been oping cargo transports to the Interna- STEP (Space Technologies for Explo-
extremely important from a pro- tional Space Station and later to work ration Partnerships) program, the
curement perspective, notes Michael on space taxis to ferry astronauts. agency has issued BAAs for two dozen

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

 types of services, spacecraft or studies, thinking. It can synthesize both.” report released March 10.
NASA CONCEPT

including: the PPE; Human Landing Prescriptive solicitations have their SLS and Orion are being developed
System; trash compacting; Earth-orbit- place, but Gold notes, “It’s interesting under cost-plus-award-fee agreements
ing, free-flying platforms; deep-space and healthy for NASA to be looking at held by prime contractors Boeing and
habitats; in-situ resource utilization; the different arrows it has in its quiver Lockheed Martin, respectively.
and space communication and naviga- for procurement and using the right Despite cost overruns and program
tion networks, among others. tool for the job.” delays, the agency is steadfast in its
“The BAA is extraordinarily import- The key is to match the right over- support of the SLS and Orion, argu-
ant because it allows private sector en- sight, incentives, contract structure, ing that it is the only system with the
tities to suggest creative ways to meet payment plan and testing plan, says lift capacity and maturity to meet the
government objectives and goals and Douglas Loverro, NASA associate 2024 deadline for landing astronauts
[it] avoids making the government en- administrator for Human Exploration on the Moon.
tirely prescriptive in terms of what it and Operations. NASA also is unflagging in its long-
may need or want,” Gold says. “You have to look at all of the ele- term commitment to SLS and Ori-
“When the government asks for spe- ments that make up the acquisition on, though the agency is watching a
cific goals or objectives—rather than strategy . . . and marry those together high-profile, privately funded effort
saying how it needs to get there—you to create a tight web that ensures suc- by SpaceX to develop a Mars-class
can often obtain some very creative, cess,” Loverro says. “I’ve been doing reusable transportation system called
low-cost ideas that actually enhance government contracting for 40 years, Starship. Blue Origin also has plans
safety, which perhaps those in govern- and I have used every form of con- for a super-heavy reusable lifter called
ment wouldn’t have thought of. tract. No kind of contract is immune New Armstrong.
“Additionally, there is inherent flex- from errors.” SLS and Orion are expected to debut
ibility to the BAA process that allows NASA took a traditional contract- in mid-to-late 2021 with an uncrewed
the government to synthesize feedback ing approach to develop the Space flight test around the Moon. That mis-
it gets from companies and adopt what Launch System (SLS) rocket, Orion sion would set the stage for a crewed
will be the best approach,” Gold says. capsule and related ground support lunar flyby in 2022-23 and a crewed
“That may be something that the gov- systems, a project that could consume landing on the surface of the Moon
ernment wasn’t initially thinking or $50 billion by 2024, the NASA Office during the third SLS-Orion flight, pos-
that the private sector wasn’t initially of the Inspector General wrote in a sibly in 2024. c

SLS Busts Its Budget—Again the project’s budget. The accounting maneuver temporarily
masked the fact that the SLS was more than 30% over bud-
Irene Klotz Washington
get, the level that mandates congressional notification and a
THE COST OF NASA’S SPACE LAUNCH SYSTEM (SLS) program rebaselining, the OIG audit shows.
rocket continues to soar, with new estimates reaching more Another $2 billion in cost overruns are due to technical prob-
than $18 billion before the booster’s debut in 2021 and a price lems Boeing encountered building the SLS core stage, issues
tag of nearly $23 billion if a crewed flight test slips to 2023. with the propellant liner used in the Northrop Grumman-built
So concludes NASA Inspector General Paul Martin, solid rocket boosters and development of new RS-25 engine
whose office flagged the SLS program on March 10 for controllers by Aerojet Rocketdyne, the audit shows.
exceeding its Agency Baseline Commitment (ABC)—the As of December 2019, NASA had obligated $14.8 billion to
cost and schedule commitment to Congress against the SLS program and was expected to spend a total of $17.4
which a program is measured—by at least 33% on Sept. billion if the Artemis-1 launch occurs in November, the OIG
30, the end of fiscal 2019. said. The figures include preparations for the next two Artemis
The SLS is likely to surpass its congressionally approved missions, new engine development and improved boosters.
budget by 43% if the rocket’s first flight is postponed be- However, in January, NASA revised the timeline and now ex-
yond November, which is all but official. NASA is expected pects the Artemis-1 launch to slip to spring 2021, which would
to announce a new target launch date of mid-to-late 2021 cause SLS program costs to rise to $18.3 billion, the report
for Artemis-1, an uncrewed trial run of the SLS-launched says. If Artemis-2, a crewed flight around the Moon, slips to
Orion capsule around the Moon. 2023, program costs would climb to approximately $22.8 billion.
Combined with the Orion capsule and ground support NASA initially planned to launch the first SLS mission by
systems, NASA could spend $50 billion on the Artemis lu- the end of 2019, but the program was delayed primarily by
nar exploration initiative by the time astronauts land on the “management, technical and infrastructure issues driven
Moon in 2024, as mandated by President Donald Trump, mostly by Boeing’s poor performance,” the OIG said in an
the Office of Inspector General (OIG) audit shows. October 2018 audit.
Part of the SLS overrun is due to NASA removing from The new audit says contractor performance has im-
the program work it said was not tied to the first launch of proved but NASA is still struggling to manage SLS program
the SLS, though it kept $889 million allotted for that work in costs and schedule. c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 57

SPACE

SPACEX
TO THE
FINISH

> FALCON ROCKETS ARE SOLE HERITAGE OFFERING A SpaceX Falcon Heavy lifted off on
June 25, 2019, on the STP-2 mission
> ULA BUSINESS BASED ON WINNING ITS BID for the U.S. Air Force.
to end dependence on Russian rock-
Irene Klotz Promontory, Utah, and Washington et engines for national security space
launches, reduce launch costs and

U
nited Launch Alliance (ULA) CEO Tory Bruno is keen spur competition for current and fu-
ture national security space launches.
on competition, even if that means losing a government Unlike its competitors, ULA’s busi-
contract every now and then, as happened in February ness plan rests on winning a Phase 2
when NASA chose a SpaceX Falcon Heavy to launch a award. “We have an entire business
plan that presumes we are going to win
science probe to the metal asteroid Psyche in 2022 for $117 million. Phase 2,” Bruno said during a March
10 media roundtable at the Satellite
ULA had offered Psyche mission curity space launch (NSSL) services 2020 conference in Washington.
launch services aboard its workhorse through 2027 concludes with the If ULA does not win, he added,
Atlas V for an undisclosed price. U.S. Air Force deciding whether to “We’d have to go evaluate that.”
“Can’t win them all,” Bruno tells Avi- retain incumbents ULA and SpaceX Based on satellite orders compiled
ation Week. “We win about half, but or replace one or both with Northrop by several industry association sur-
that’s OK. That’s how competition is Grumman and/or Blue Origin. veys, Bruno figures there is enough
supposed to work. The Air Force Space and Missile business for two domestic medium-
“It’s healthy for the government. It’s Systems Center, in partnership with to-heavy-lift launch service providers,
healthy for the industry . . . because the National Reconnaissance Office, and he is confident ULA will be one
we try to be as efficient as we can and plans to award firm fixed-price, in- of them.
to differentiate ourselves, which ulti- definite-delivery contracts to two do- “There isn’t much rocket science to
mately usually results in more value mestic launch service providers for this,” Bruno said. “The launch service
for the customer, either in capabilities procurements in fiscal 2020-24, with provider is at the end of a 5-7-year-
or in prices,” he adds. work split 60/40%. long chain. It’s going to be about 30-35
Bruno’s mettle is being put to the The NSSL Phase 2 Launch Service launches a year for the next several
test. This summer, a heated two-year Procurement (LSP)—the first such years,” he said during a March 11
competition to provide national se- solicitation since 2005—is designed panel session at the conference. “We

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

all need about 8-12 launches a year, Toward that end Musk, who also trillion value of the telecommunica-
at least, to be a sustainable, viable serves as SpaceX CEO and chief en- tions industry, Musk says. “Starlink is
business. That makes room for four gineer, is focused on developing the not some huge threat to telcos. In fact,
[launch service providers]. Starship, a two-stage, fully reusable it will be helpful to telcos because Star-
“The Russians will always have transportation system capable of link will serve the hardest-to-serve
one—it is state-sponsored—they will placing 110 tons (100 metric tons) into customers that telcos otherwise have
make sure. Ariane will always exist, the LEO. By comparison, the 1960s-era problems with,” using landlines or cell-
Europeans will make sure. That leaves single-use Saturn V Moon rocket could phone towers, he adds.
two for the U.S. because we want to en- put 154 tons into LEO. Shotwell says that even without
sure space access via two providers. So SpaceX is counting on revenue from Starlink, SpaceX is profitable. “Star-
that is the right number, and that’s why the Starlink constellation to fast-track link is additive to our business,” she
the Air Force will select two very short- Starship development. Flying cargo told reporters during a media round-
ly this summer,” Bruno says. and crew to the International Space table in October. “We make money on
Station and launching commercial the core business of SpaceX, which is
THE SPACEX VIEW and government satellites on the ex- Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Dragons.
SpaceX looks at the launch market pie isting Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy fleet “We could do Starship just on our
with a different eye. First, the company can bring in up to $3 billion a year, own operating income, on our reve-
expects more than half of its project- Musk said during a March 9 keynote nue, if we were to spread it out over
ed 35-38 Falcon launches this year to address at Satellite 2020. time,” she added. “But Elon wants to
carry Starlink satellites manufactured, Providing broadband should gen- get things done quickly, and so we’re
owned and operated by SpaceX into erate an order of magnitude more spending a lot of money on advancing
low Earth orbit (LEO), a project in- revenue, probably about $30 billion Starship and Starlink. SpaceX does not
tended to provide global high-speed, a year—a fraction of the current $2.8 need Starlink to be a healthy business.”
low-latency internet service. In support of Phase 2, SpaceX has
SpaceX’s sixth batch of 60 Starlinks A structural test article of ULA’s unveiled plans for a movable tower
reached orbit on March 18, bringing Vulcan rocket underwent fit checks at its Falcon launch base at NASA’s
the constellation head count to about Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The
at Cape Canaveral AFS Space Launch
360. When that number doubles, 284-ft.-tall gantry features 11 floors and
SpaceX expects to be able to provide Complex 41. doors to shield Falcon 9 and Falcon
seamless internet coverage Heavy rockets from rain and
covering latitudes about 25 wind, while providing a con-
deg. north and south of the trolled environment to hoist
equator. payloads on top of the vehi-
After 24 launches, with cles as they stand vertically
approximately 1,440 Star- at the pad.
links in orbit, the network SpaceX currently installs
will be capable of full glob- payloads horizontally in-
al coverage, according to side hangars near its three
SpaceX President and Chief launchpads. Some of the
Operating Officer Gwynne national security missions,
Shotwell. however, require vertical
Ultimately, SpaceX plans integration. SpaceX also is
to operate approximately working to qualify a longer
12,000 satellites, with a pos- payload shroud, which like-
sible expansion to 42,000. wise is required for some
The company is still work- NSSL missions.
ing with the International
Telecommunication Union STARRY-EYED
for spectrum allocation and SpaceX’s passion for the
with individual countries Starship, previously known
for permission to transmit as the Big Falcon Rocket,
data to and from non-U.S. caused a rare misstep in the
territories. company’s quest for U.S. gov-
Starlink’s raison d’etre is ernment launch contracts
to bring in enough revenue when it included a small role
to carry out the space colo- for the megabooster in its
nization dream of tech en- LSP developmental Launch
trepreneur Elon Musk, who Service Agreements (LSA)
founded SpaceX in 2002 with proposal, a precursor to
the goal of creating technolo- the ongoing competition for
gies for interplanetary trans- launch services.
portation, with a particular In 2018, the Air Force
eye on Mars. awarded three LSA con-
ULA

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 59

SPACE

tracts, collectively worth about $2 bil- Falcon Heavy has flown three times, ent than what a launch vehicle compa-
lion, to ULA, Northrop Grumman and all successfully. ny would normally do, which is to pur-
Blue Origin to help defray the costs of sue lots of different payload customers.
developing launch-system prototypes THE ROCKET THAT SCRUM BUILT We meet that business need for the Air
aimed at fulfilling various national se- One company hoping to wrest the Force in a different way.”
curity payload delivery requirements. NSSL business away from the in- But the Omega also is a departure
SpaceX’s LSA bid included use of cumbents is Northrop Grumman, from Northrop’s current programs,
the Starship for launch of some of the which presents a very different view which include the five-segment sol-
heaviest payloads and most challeng- of launch market viability. “The Air id-rocket motors for NASA’s SLS,
ing missions in 2025 and beyond, a Force’s intent from the beginning is the air-launched Pegasus booster, the
scenario the Air Force deemed “high- to make sure that our business case Minotaur and Antares. Northrop used
risk.” SpaceX responded in May 2019 didn’t depend on them with large an agile development system called
with a federal lawsuit, challenging the numbers of launches,” says Northrop’s scrum—initially developed by teams
Air Force’s procurement process. Charlie Precourt, vice president of to write software in sprints—to design
The lawsuit is under consideration propulsion systems. and manufacture the Omega.
in U.S. District Court for the Central “We’re not a launch vehicle search- “We like to call Omega the rock-
District of California. An LSA award ing for lots of different payloads,” he et that scrum built,” says Precourt.
was not necessary for companies to adds. “We’re a launch vehicle that is “Scrum is about moving faster, how
compete for the LSP Phase 2 program. built on existing manufacturing lines, to innovate to go faster and do more
Ironically, iconoclastic SpaceX, facilities and workforce infrastructure.” in less time.”
which previously sued the Air Force Northrop’s Phase 2 offering, the Between the May 2019 and Feb-
to speed up the breakup of ULA’s Omega, can close its business case ruary 2020 static test firings of the
2006-16 monopoly on national secu- with just 3-4 launches per year, far be- Omega’s first and second stages in
rity space launch services, is the only low ULA’s estimate of what it takes to Promontory, Utah, engineers used
Phase 2 contender offering an existing sustain a viable medium- to heavy-lift scrum methodologies to apply lessons
and certified family of launchers. The launch service program. learned, such as determining what
company, which publishes base pricing Northrop is heavily leveraging in- the environments were like inside the
on its website, has not disclosed what vestments and existing work for NASA motor and how it behaves when fired,
it would charge for NSSL missions, but and the defense community to develop Precourt says.
SpaceX is well-known for undercutting the Omega, a family of two-stage, sol- Both static firings were successful,
its competition. id-propellant boosters topped with an completing full-scale engine testings
Ten years ago, Iridium shopped for Aerojet Rocketdyne RL10 upper stage. planned prior to the Omega’s debut
launch services to put its next-gener- ULA also is using an RL10 for the up- launch in 2021.
ation network of 75 communications per stage of the Vulcan. However, the May test, during
satellites into orbit. It signed with “The core of the Omega rocket is which the Omega’s two 31-ft. solid-pro-
SpaceX, which at the time was prepar- in form, fit and function the same as pellant rocket motors were ignited,
ing for the first flight of the Falcon 9. a segment of the SLS [Space Launch ended with the booster’s 18-ft.-long
SpaceX’s bid for the Iridium Next System] booster,” says Precourt. nozzle breaking apart, a function of
launch campaign—which consisted “What we’re doing is a little bit differ- atmospheric conditions during test-
of eight flights from January 2017 to
January 2019 from Vandenberg AFB
in California—was $500 million. “My Northrop Grumman test-fired the second stage of its
next price from there was $1.2 billion Omega rocket on Feb. 27 in Utah.
to launch the same 75 satellites,” says
Iridium CEO Matt Desch. “Thank God
for SpaceX . . . . I’m not sure I could
have afforded the second-best price.”
Six years later, SpaceX broke ULA’s
monopoly on the Air Force’s launch
business with an $83 million winning
bid to fly a GPS 3 satellite, undercut-
ting the government’s cost estimate,
based on previous GPS launches by
ULA, by about 40%, the Space and Mis-
sile Systems Center said at the time.
Price and performance may tip the
scales in SpaceX’s favor for the up-
coming Phase 2 LSP awards. With its
March 18 launch, SpaceX has carried
out 83 Falcon 9 missions, with one in-
flight failure and one accident during
a prelaunch static test fire that cost
another booster and payload. The

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

ing and not an issue for certification
or flight, Northrop says.
“The nozzle was just one part of the
design we analyzed. Our engineers
ran in sprints, with the customer as
part of the team, to assess data, an-
chor models and optimize the design,”
says Precourt. “By taking a little extra
time between the two tests and utiliz-
ing scrum, we were able to fully test
design improvements without any
impact to our launch-readiness date.
We’re deploying scrum more broadly

BLUE ORIGIN
across the plant as we go.”
Under terms of Northrop’s $792
million LSA agreement, awarded in
2018 for Omega development and cer- Blue Origin’s first payload fairing for the New Glenn rocket was manufactured
tification work, the company plans to
conduct two more full-duration static in Florida.
tests of the first and second stages af-
ter the Omega’s first two flights, which Winning a follow-on Phase 2 con- the normally low-profile company
will be used to certify the booster for tract is a high priority for Northrop. displayed videos of the New Glenn’s
national space security missions. “We’ve been working really hard on newly completed mission control cen-
Northrop is developing the Omega that,” Precourt tells Aviation Week ter, a first-stage fuel tank, which is the
primarily to provide launch services to “Northrop as an entire company is fo- rocket’s largest structure, and the first
the Air Force, but it is also offering the cused on national security space. completed 23-ft.-long payload fairing.
rocket commercially. In December, the “We do threat assessment, mission At nearby Cape Canaveral AFS, a
company announced it had a custom- planning, mission control and opera- launch complex for the New Glenn is
er for the Omega’s first flight, one of tions, satellite design and manufactur- under construction, with the booster’s
two missions required prior to flying ing [and] direct support of information debut expected in late 2021.
high-value national security payloads. to the warfighter,” he says. “Launch Like SpaceX and Northrop, Blue Or-
The debut mission will carry one is a piece of that full-value stream of igin’s future does not hinge on winning
or two Saturn NationSat geosta- delivering to the warfighter, so NSSL a Phase 2 contract. The company won
tionary communications satellites. fits right into the DNA of the company. LSA funding, which it says it is using
Northrop said it is “converging on an We’re really determined to deliver for to cover NSSL certification costs and
agreement” with a customer for the the Air Force.” program requirements to develop a
Omega’s second flight, which is ex- As to what it will take to dethrone West Coast launch site for polar orbits.
pected to launch next summer, says an incumbent, Precourt says it is not Blue Origin has signed New Glenn
spokeswoman Jennifer Bowman. that unusual: “It all comes down to launch contracts with at least five cus-
who is best-prepared and best meets tomers—Eutelsat, mμ Space Corp. of
the need. That’s what we’re working Thailand, Sky Perfect JSAT, OneWeb
hard to do.” and Telesat—several of which are buy-
ing multiple flights.
GETTING A TOEHOLD Powered by seven BE-4 engines on
Among the four contenders for the Air its reusable first stage, the New Glenn
Force’s launch business, Blue Origin’s is designed to carry nearly 50 tons to
New Glenn offering may be the lon- LEO. “And that is the smallest orbital
gest-shot, but even if it does not win a vehicle we are planning to build and
Phase 2 contract, it fully expects to be launch,” says Clay Mowry, Blue Origin
a key part of the team. That is because vice president of sales, marketing and
the company’s BE-4 engines will pow- customer experience.
er the first stages of both ULA’s Vulcan Like SpaceX’s Musk, Bezos aims to
rocket and Blue’s New Glenn. parlay his company’s space transporta-
Company founder Jeff Bezos has tion technology into a future that more
invested $2.5 billion in the New Glenn, closely resembles the science fiction
including a new $200 million, 350,000- novels both men hold dear. Bezos’ vi-
ft.2 factory and office complex in Hunts- sion is for millions of people to be living
ville, Alabama, where BE-4 engines and and working off Earth.
the New Glenn’s BE-3U upper stages ULA and Northrop, meanwhile,
will be manufactured. seek only to serve the national secu-
Blue Origin also is expanding New rity mission.
Glenn manufacturing facilities adjacent The Air Force has never had such
to Kennedy Space Center. In March, ripe pickings. c
NORTHROP GRUMMAN

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 61

SPACE

Space Force Ups the Launch Ante The double launch in a single day was
planned for two SpaceX liftoffs. With
> 45TH SPACE FORCE MUST IMPROVE SPACE RANGE INFRASTRUCTURE the Falcon 9’s autonomous flight safety
system, it is easier to reconfigure the
> INDUSTRY IS WORKING TO INCORPORATE AN AUTONOMOUS range, providing more flexibility. Auton-
FLIGHT SAFETY STANDARD omous flight safety eliminates the need
for the command-destruct system that
mission flight control officers operate.
They make sure the system is encrypt-
A Falcon 9 rocket ed and an outside entity cannot destroy
carrying a payload a rocket. Ultimately, however, the dou-
ble launch did not take place.
of Starlink satellites
A mark of incremental progress in
lifted off from Cape being more flexible for launch custom-
Canaveral AFS as ers is repurposing frequency-control
the first official U.S. vans and using them for telemetry.
Space Force launch. Previously, the service placed telem-
etry antennas all over the range but
now can get rid of some of the older
infrastructure and work with a mobile
version. Schiess says his team is about
to accept the first van, and more are in
the pipeline.
Gen. John Raymond, chief of space
operations and head of U.S. Space
Command, issued a mandate to equip
AIRMAN 1ST CLASS ZOE THACKER/U.S. AIR FORCE all new rockets with an autonomous
Lee Hudson Orlando, Florida flight safety system by 2025. The shift
is part of a larger strategy known as

T
he U.S. Space Force is taking strate the importance of a reusable “range of the future,” a program that
steps to achieve the previously spaceplane,” Air Force Secretary Bar- will require network infrastructure
unfathomable goal of launch on bara Barrett says. “Each successive upgrades by 2022.
demand for both commercial and mil- mission advances our nation’s space This means contenders in the Na-
itary customers. capabilities.” The X-37B Orbital Test tional Security Space Launch compe-
The 45th Space Wing is calling the Vehicle conducted on-orbit experi- tition must incorporate the technology
new goal “Set the Pace for Space,” Brig. ments for 780 days during its mission, into their rockets, Schiess says. The
Gen. Douglas Schiess, 45th Space Wing breaking its own record by remaining Pentagon plans to choose two compa-
commander and Eastern Range direc- in orbit for more than two years. nies for the second phase of the Launch
tor, told Aviation Week in February The team did not quite meet the Service Procurement in 2020 for mis-
during the Air Warfare Symposium. 48-launch mark, but Schiess is unde- sions spanning 2022-26. Four compa-
The 45th Space Wing, headquartered terred. Twenty-four launches occurred nies are seeking to win the contracts:
at Patrick AFB in Florida oversees the in 2018, and 2019 saw 19 “major opera- Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman,
preparation and launch of U.S. gov- tions,” including the X-37B landing, he SpaceX and United Launch Alliance.
ernment and commercial satellites says. A direct result of the new specifica-
from Cape Canaveral. It is one of five “Some might say, ‘Hey, you’re doing tion is redeploying staff to other teams
Air Force space wings assigned to the less than you did the year before.’ But because the mission flight control offi-
Space Force beginning Dec. 20 when really, we had a couple of times during cers operating the command-destruct
President Donald Trump signed the the year where we demonstrated that system will not be needed once all
National Defense Authorization Act 48 capability,” Schiess notes. rockets are outfitted with autonomous
for Fiscal Year 2020, which created the In July and August 2019, for exam- flight safety systems. Those personnel
new sixth branch of the armed forces. ple, the Air Force launched four times can then work on other projects.
His predecessor set a goal of 48 in four weeks, and in December 2019 By 2030, submarine-launched and
liftoffs annually by 2020, almost one a there were two launches in the same intercontinental ballistic missiles must
week, while leaving a few periods avail- week. In January 2020, Schiess’ team have autonomous flight safety systems,
able for range maintenance, Schiess was prepared to launch twice in the according to Raymond’s decree.
says. This year, Schiess’ team is prep- same day. Safety engineers at the 45th Space
ping for the sixth launch of the X-37B “We want to launch when anybody Wing will still have to certify the rock-
from Cape Canaveral AFS. The X-37B needs us to launch, whether it is a na- ets outfitted with autonomous flight
is a reusable and unmanned spacecraft tional security payload or a commer- safety systems for launch, Schiess
that allows scientists and engineers to cial launch,” he says. Schiess envisions adds, but they can create a template
conduct experiments in a long-duration achieving launch on demand by imple- for the same mission type such as car-
space environment. menting different scheduling practices go resupply to the International Space
“The X-37B continues to demon- and improving infrastructure. Station. c

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

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 EDITORIAL

This Too Shall Pass

N

MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES
ot long ago, the biggest concern facing commercial has recovered and grown stronger, resuming its long-held
aviation was whether Airbus and Boeing could pro- trend of outpacing global economic growth.
duce enough aircraft to keep up with demand. In- In one way, the disruption to our lives and businesses
dustry leaders fretted about how quickly they could ramp caused by the travel restrictions imposed to control the
up production and whether the supply chain could keep spread of COVID-19 illustrates the degree to which the
pace. Some airlines were equally bullish, with American world has come to rely on air transportation, from en-
Airlines CEO Doug Parker proclaiming: “I don’t think we’re abling commerce to connecting families. This is a crisis
ever going to lose money again” (see page 16). on an unprecedented scale for aviation, and there are air-
After a run of unparalleled and seemingly unstoppable lines and businesses that certainly will not survive. But the
prosperity, aviation and aerospace extent of the disruption gives hope
have flown into a perfect storm. The that demand for air transportation
temporary shutdown of Boeing’s 737
MAX production line has waylaid
COMMERCIAL AVIATION IS will return unabated once the re-
strictions are lifted.
aerospace suppliers. But that pales A CONNECTIVE TISSUE It is vital for governments, law-
in comparison to the impact of the
coronavirus pandemic, which first THAT UNDERPINS GLOBAL makers and industry leaders to rec-
ognize that aviation will need help
crippled a crucial growth engine,
China, and is now decimating air COMMERCE, DRIVES PROSPERITY getting through such destructive
upheaval. But in some cases, the op-
transport markets around the world.
Each day brings a new round of AND SUPPORTS MANY tics will invite legitimate criticism.
For example, Boeing has returned
fleet groundings, layoffs and order
deferrals or cancellations, which in MILLIONS OF JOBS. nearly $50 billion to its shareholders
over the past five years while invest-
the coming months will rip through ing far less. Now it wants taxpayers
the manufacturing industry like a to cough up tens of billions for a
tornado. A new forecast from Europe projects Airbus will be bailout? U.S. airlines are no better: They have sent 96% of
forced to cut planned production nearly in half in 2021 and free cash flow to shareholders over the last five years. And
may not fully recover before 2027. Boeing is calling on the what about those airlines in Europe that should have been
U.S. government to provide at least $60 billion in aid to aero- allowed to die long ago? Will they use this crisis as leverage
space manufacturers, U.S. airlines want another $58 billion, for yet another government rescue?
airports $10 billion and the maintenance, repair and over- Clearly, there are lessons to be learned from the crisis,
haul industry $11 billion. It would not be hyperbole to call and a return to business as usual will not suffice. But in the
this the greatest crisis civil aviation has faced since the near term, this is not about partisan politics or competitive
dawn of the commercial jet age more than six decades ago. advantage. It is about helping a vital industry survive this
But amid such panic, we need to take a deep breath and calamity. Commercial aviation is a connective tissue that
remember that this industry has survived many big chal- underpins global commerce, drives prosperity and supports
lenges: oil price spikes; the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks; many millions of jobs. Allowing it to wither is not a realistic
the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome; and the 2008-09 option. The coming days will be dark, but rest assured the
global financial meltdown. Each time commercial aviation industry will recover and once again prosper. c

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

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