Impact assessment of
the COVID-19 outbreak
on international tourism
Updated 24 March 2020
KEY MESSAGES
• We are facing an unprecedented global health emergency. The containment of the pandemic is the
utmost priority and the tourism sector is committed to support all measures taken to curb the
outbreak. UNWTO is working closely with the World Health Organization (WHO), its Members
States and the industry to ensure a coordinated and effective response.
• The COVID-19 outbreak has brought our world to a standstill with unparalleled and unforeseen
impact in our lives, our economies, our societies and our livelihoods and there are growing risks of
a global recession and a massive loss of jobs.
• Any assessment of the impact of this unparalleled crisis on the tourism sector is quickly surpassed
by the fast-changing reality.
KEY MESSAGES
• Considering the unparalleled and fast-evolving nature of crisis, it is extremely challenging to estimate
the impact of COVID-19 on international tourism.
• Based on the latest developments (quarantine measures, travel bans & border closures in most of
Europe, which represents 50% of international tourism, and in many countries of the Americas, Africa
and the Middle East), the evolutions in Asia and the Pacific and the patterns of previous crises (2003
SARS and 2009 global economic crisis), UNWTO estimates international tourist arrivals could
decline by 20% to 30% in 2020.
• This would translate into a loss of 300 to 450 US$ billion in international tourism receipts
(exports) – almost one third of the US$ 1.5 trillion generated globally in the worst-case scenario.
• These estimates should be interpreted with caution in view of the magnitude, volatility and
unprecedented nature of this crisis. SARS and the 2009 global economic crisis are the existing
references, but this crisis is like no other. UNWTO will continue to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on
international tourism.
2020 forecast - international tourist arrivals, world (millions)
International tourism could
drop back to levels of 2012-2014
2020 forecast - international tourist arrivals, world (% change)
2020 forecast - international tourism receipts, world (US$ billion)
2020 forecast - international tourism receipts, world (real change, %)
Estimated -290 to 440 million International Tourist Arrivals
Global Impact
5 to 7 years lost in number of tourists
-300 to 450 US$ bn Tourism Exports (receipts)
1/3 of 1.5 US$ trillion lost in Tourism Exports
Estimated impact of COVID-19 on air transport in 2020
(RPKs and air passenger revenue loss), IATA
Est. Impact on pass.
Region of airline % Change in RPKS
revenue 2020 vs. 2019
registration (2020 vs. 2019)
(US$ billion)
Africa -32% -4
Asia Pacific -37% -88
Europe -46% -76
Latin America -41% -15
Middle East -39% -19
North America -27% -50
Industry -38% -252
Source: IATA
Importance of international tourism in countries with most reported cases
of COVID-19 (over 5,000 cases), 24 March 2020
As of 24 March 2020, a total of 196 countries and territories have reported cases of COVID 19
Countries with more than Share of World Tourist Tourism Share of Exports in Share of World Tourism Share of World Tourism
5K COVID-19 reported cases Arrivals (%) the country (%) Receipts (%) Expenditure (%)
China 4% 1% 3% 19%
Italy 4% 8% 3% 2%
United States 5% 10% 15% 10%
Spain 6% 16% 5% 2%
Germany 3% 3% 3% 7%
Iran 1% 5% 0% 1%
Republic of Korea 1% 3% 1% 2%
France 6% 8% 4% 3%
Switzerland 1% 5% 1% 1%
United Kingdom 3% 6% 4% 5%
Total 34% 39% 52%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Note: Countries with more than 5K COVID-19 reported cases to 24 March 2020, according to the World Health Organization (WHO)
SUPPORTING RECOVERY
• What we don’t know - we don’t know when we will we see the end of this crisis.
• What we do know: we know that millions of jobs are at risk, that we need to protect the most vulnerable
segments such as SMEs, self-employed, women and youth. That we need to create survival
mechanisms for companies.
• We know we need strong support in navigating the unparalleled social and economic impact of COVID-
19. In the immediate, we need urgent fiscal and monetary measures that help protect jobs, sustain the
self-employed and support companies' liquidity and operations and accelerate recovery in the future.
• Tourism is a major job creator, especially for more vulnerable groups - women and youth. It is also a
sector with proven capacity to bounce back and multiply recovery to other sectors.
• Coordinated and strong mitigation and recovery plans to support the sector can generate massive
returns across the whole economy and jobs.
1.5 billion in 2019
International Total International Tourist Arrivals
tourism:
an history of US$ 1.7 trillion in 2018
Total International Tourism Exports (receipts & passenger transport)
continued
growth and
resilience
International tourist arrivals
International tourism - growth and resilience
International Tourist Arrivals (1995-2019) International
tourism has seen
continued
expansion, despite
occasional
shocks,
demonstrating the
sector’s strength
and resilience and
benefiting all world
since
2009 regions.
since
2000
Yet this crisis is
like no other and
requires strong
and coordinated
action
Source: UNWTO
International tourism & previous crises
International tourist arrivals in Asia Pacific during SARS and worldwide during 2009 global economic crisis, monthly growth (%)
TOURISM CAN ACCELARATE JOB CREATION…
GROWTH IN GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT, 2010-2018 (%)
After the global
economic crisis,
employment in all
sectors grew by
11% between 2010
and 2018 while
employment in
accommodation
and food services
grew 35%
SOURCE: UNW TO ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANIZATION (ILO ). INCLUDES ESTIMATES BY ILO.
Impact assessment of
the COVID-19 outbreak
on international tourism
Updated 24 March 2020
