Exercise 1.

Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage cr

In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best technolo
adaptation of the workers who will manipulate the equipments that comprise it. The
adaptation of the workers are given in the table, in millions of pesos ($). For Hurwi

According to Table 1 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimi

decision level according to the benefit criteria.

Solution

a. Laplace

There are five options, to calculate the optimal decision we use the following formu

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=1/𝑛 ∑24_(𝑗=1)^𝑛▒𝑅_𝑖𝑗

𝑛=5

1/𝑛= 1/5=0.2

Event
Alternative Fits Fits
Does not fit acceptably successfully

Technology 1 2118 2168 2213

Technology 2 2109 2158 2245
Technology 3 2145 2177 2232
Technology 4 2130 2166 2206
Technology 5 2128 2165 2213
 Probability 0.2

Event
Alternative Fits Fits
Does not fit
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 424 434 443

Technology 2 422 432 449
Technology 3 429 435 446
Technology 4 426 433 441
Technology 5 426 433 443

The selected alternative is Technology 5 because it has a better profit

b. Wald or pessimistic

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {min⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽 〗 }

We select the minimum value of each row and we select the maximum among all of them.

Event
Alternative Fits Fits
Does not fit
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 2118 2168 2213

Technology 2 2109 2158 2245
Technology 3 2145 2177 2232
Technology 4 2130 2166 2206
Technology 5 2128 2165 2213

The selected alternative is Technology 3 because it is the worst

c. Optimistic criteria

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {max⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽 〗 }

We select the maximum value of each row and we select the maximum among all of them.

Event
Alternative
 Alternative Fits Fits
Does not fit
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 2118 2168 2213

Technology 2 2109 2158 2245
Technology 3 2145 2177 2232
Technology 4 2130 2166 2206
Technology 5 2128 2165 2213

The selected alternative is Technology 5 because it has a better profit

d. Hurwicz

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {max⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽∗α+𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑅_𝐼𝐽∗(1−α) 〗 }

alpha 0.7

Event
Alternative Fits Fits
Does not fit acceptably successfully

Technology 1 2118 2168 2213

Technology 2 2109 2158 2245
Technology 3 2145 2177 2232
Technology 4 2130 2166 2206
Technology 5 2128 2165 2213

The selected alternative is Technology 5 because it has a better profit

e. Savage

We select the maximum value of each column

Event
Alternative Fits Fits
Does not fit
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 2118 2168 2213

Technology 2 2109 2158 2245
Technology 3 2145 2177 2232
Technology 4 2130 2166 2206
Technology 5 2128 2165 2213
 The maximum value is subtracted from each value in the table

Event
Alternative Fits Fits
Does not fit
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 27 9 32
Technology 2 36 19 0
Technology 3 0 0 13
Technology 4 15 11 39
Technology 5 17 12 32

The selected alternative is Technology 1,3 and 5 because it has a lower opportunity co

Exercise 2. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the USA,
customers in the day of love and friendship. The exact number of crates is not know
630, 680, 715 and 730 crates. There are therefore four levels of supply. The deviat
additional costs, either due to excessive supplies or because demand can not be me
(US $). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,75.

According to Table 2 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimi

decision level according to the benefit criteria.

Solution

a. Laplace

There are five options, to calculate the optimal decision we use the following formu

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=1/𝑛 ∑24_(𝑗=1)^𝑛▒𝑅_𝑖𝑗

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=1/𝑛 ∑24_(𝑗=1)^𝑛▒𝑅_𝑖𝑗

𝑛=5

1/𝑛= 1/5=0.2

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 2109 2197 2236
e2(630) 2112 2152 2228
e3(680) 2137 2168 2240
e4(715) 2110 2176 2238
e5(730) 2136 2173 2243

Probability 0.2

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 422 439 447
e2(630) 422 430 446
e3(680) 427 434 448
e4(715) 422 435 448
e5(730) 427 435 449

The selected alternative is e2(630) because the best level of supplies is the one associa

b. Wald or pessimistic

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {min⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽 〗 }

We select the minimum value of each row and we select the maximum among all of them.

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 2109 2197 2236
e2(630) 2112 2152 2228
e3(680) 2137 2168 2240
e4(715) 2110 2176 2238
e5(730) 2136 2173 2243

The selected alternative is e1(610) because it is the worst

 c. Optimistic criteria

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {max⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽 〗 }

We select the maximum value of each row and we select the maximum among all of them.

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 2109 2197 2236
e2(630) 2112 2152 2228
e3(680) 2137 2168 2240
e4(715) 2110 2176 2238
e5(730) 2136 2173 2243

The selected alternative is e2(630)

d. Hurwicz

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {max⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽∗α+𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑅_𝐼𝐽∗(1−α) 〗 }

alpha 0.75

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 2109 2197 2236
e2(630) 2112 2152 2228
e3(680) 2137 2168 2240
e4(715) 2110 2176 2238
e5(730) 2136 2173 2243

The selected alternative is e2(630) because it has a lower cost

e. Savage

We select the minimum value of each column

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 2109 2197 2236
 e2(630) 2112 2152 2228
e3(680) 2137 2168 2240
e4(715) 2110 2176 2238
e5(730) 2136 2173 2243

The maximum value is subtracted from each value in the table

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 0 45 8
e2(630) 3 0 0
e3(680) 28 16 12
e4(715) 1 24 10
e5(730) 27 21 15

The selected alternative is e2(630)

Exercise 3. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the USA,
customers in the day of love and friendship. The exact number of crates is not know
720, 750, 790 and 830 crates. There are therefore four levels of supply. The deviat
additional costs, either due to excessive supplies or because demand can not be me
(US $). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,55.

According to Table 2 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimi

decision level according to the benefit criteria.

Solution

a. Laplace

There are five options, to calculate the optimal decision we use the following formu

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=1/𝑛 ∑24_(𝑗=1)^𝑛▒𝑅_𝑖𝑗

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=1/𝑛 ∑24_(𝑗=1)^𝑛▒𝑅_𝑖𝑗

𝑛=5

1/𝑛= 1/5=0.2

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 1147 1152 1238
e2(630) 1109 1193 1222
e3(680) 1106 1181 1245
e4(715) 1134 1177 1249
e5(730) 1149 1197 1248

Probability 0.2

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 229 230 248
e2(630) 222 239 244
e3(680) 221 236 249
e4(715) 227 235 250
e5(730) 230 239 250

The selected alternative is e1(610) because the best level of supplies is the one associa

b. Wald or pessimistic

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {min⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽 〗 }

We select the minimum value of each row and we select the maximum among all of them.

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 1147 1152 1238
e2(630) 1109 1193 1222
e3(680) 1106 1181 1245
e4(715) 1134 1177 1249
e5(730) 1149 1197 1248

The selected alternative is e3(680) because it is the worst

 c. Optimistic criteria

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {max⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽 〗 }

We select the maximum value of each row and we select the maximum among all of them.

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 1147 1152 1238
e2(630) 1109 1193 1222
e3(680) 1106 1181 1245
e4(715) 1134 1177 1249
e5(730) 1149 1197 1248

The selected alternative is e1(610)

d. Hurwicz

We use the following formula:

𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝐴_𝑖=Max {max⁡〖𝑅 _𝐼𝐽∗α+𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑅_𝐼𝐽∗(1−α) 〗 }

alpha 0.55

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 1147 1152 1238
e2(630) 1109 1193 1222
e3(680) 1106 1181 1245
e4(715) 1134 1177 1249
e5(730) 1149 1197 1248

The selected alternative is e2(630) because it has a lower cost

e. Savage

We select the minimum value of each column

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 1147 1152 1238
 e2(630) 1109 1193 1222
e3(680) 1106 1181 1245
e4(715) 1134 1177 1249
e5(730) 1149 1197 1248

The maximum value is subtracted from each value in the table

Event
Alternative
e1(610) e2(630) e3(680)
e1(610) 41 0 16
e2(630) 3 41 0
e3(680) 0 29 23
e4(715) 28 25 27
e5(730) 43 45 26

The selected alternative is e3(680)

Exercise 4. Game Theory method:

Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the player

Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 33
Player 1
II 19 25

According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical method

Solution

Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 33
Player 1
II 19 25
Máximo 27 33
Minimax

Saddle stitch 27

Valor del juego 27

Nota: This exercise has not solution by the graphical method because it has a saddle stitch.
Exercise 5. Game Theory method:

Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the player
2:

Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 33
Player 1 II 19 25
II 33 37

According to Table 5, find the value of the game by means of the graphical method

Solution

Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 33
Player 1 II 19 25
II 33 37
Máximo 33 37
Minimax

Jugador columna

Estrategia A-1 Estrategia A-2

Valor esperado = 27P1 + 19P2 Valor esperado = 27P1 + 33P2

P1 + P2 = 1 P1 + P2 = 1
P2 =1 - P1 P2 =1 - P1

Reemplazando P1 en la ecuación Reemplazando P1 en la ecuación

Valor esperado = 27P1 + 19 (1-P1) Valor esperado = 27P1 + 33 (1-P1)
Valor esperado = 27P1 + 19-19P1 Valor esperado = 27P1 + 33-33P1
Valor esperado = 8P1 + 19 Valor esperado = -6P1 + 33

Si P = 1 Si P = 1
Valor esperado = 8(1) + 19 Valor esperado = -6(1) + 33
Valor esperado = 8 + 19 Valor esperado = -6 + 33
Valor esperado = 27 Valor esperado = 27

Si P = 0 Si P = 0
Valor esperado = 8(0) + 19 Valor esperado = -6(0) + 33
Valor esperado = 0 + 19 Valor esperado = 0 + 33
Valor esperado = 19 Valor esperado = 33

We equal A1 and A3

8P1 + 19 = -14P1 + 33
8P1 +14P1 = 33-19
22P1 = 14
P1 =14/22
P1 = 0.6363

So
P2 = 1 - P1
P2 = 1 - 14/22
P2 = 1- 0.6363
P2 = 0,3637

Valor del juego

2P1 + 1
2 (0.6363) + 1
1.2726 + 1
2.2726
Jugador fila

Estrategia B-4 Estrategia B-5

Valor esperado = 33P1 + 25P2 Valor esperado = 33P1 + 37P2

P1 + P2 = 1 P1 + P2 = 1
P2 =1 - P1 P2 =1 - P1

Reemplazando P1 en la ecuación Reemplazando P1 en la ecuación

Valor esperado = 33P1 + 25 (1-P1) Valor esperado = 33P1 + 37 (1-P1)
Valor esperado = 33P1 + 25-25P1 Valor esperado = 33P1 + 37-37P1
Valor esperado = 8P1 + 25 Valor esperado = -4P1 + 37

Si P = 1 Si P = 1
Valor esperado = 8(1) + 25 Valor esperado = -4(1) + 33
Valor esperado = 8 + 25 Valor esperado = -4 + 33
Valor esperado = 33 Valor esperado = 27

Si P = 0 Si P = 0
Valor esperado = 8(0) + 25 Valor esperado = -4(0) + 33
Valor esperado = 0 + 25 Valor esperado = 0 + 33
Valor esperado = 25 Valor esperado = 33
We equal B4 and B5

8P1 + 25 = -4P1 + 37
8P1 + 4P1 = 37-25
12P1 = 12
P1 =12/12
P1 = 1

So
P2 = 1 - P1
P2 = 1 - 1
P2 = 0,3637

Valor del juego

2P1 + 1
2 (1) + 1
2+1
3

Exercise 6. Optimum solution of two-person games (Theory of games, mixe

The games represent the latest case of lack of information where intelligent oppone
environment. The result is that a very conservative criterion is generally proposed t
called minimax - maximin criterion. To determine a fair game, the minimax = maxi
strategy through the Solver.

PLAYER B
81 83
PLAYER A

84 83
82 78
87 87
83 85

Solve the game of players A and B to determine the value of the game, using the p
in table 6.

Q1 Q2
1 0

PLAYER B
P1 0 81 83
PLAYER A

P2 0 84 83
P3 0 82 78
 PLAYER A
P4 1 87 87
P5 0 83 85
I 1 Maximo 87 87
Minimo 87

MaxZ = V 87 VE 87 87

Exercise 7. Use of the practical learning environment. Collaborative activity

Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use of th
proposed activities, remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative wor
this same space you can carefully review the Guide for the use of educational resou

Ingreso al entorno practico

Consulta de la guia de recursos educativos

Ejercicio 6: Ejemplo de uso de solver para encontrar el maximin

Ejercicio 4
Q1 Q2
1 0

Player 2
Strategy
A B
P1 1 I 27 33
Player 1
P2 0 II 19 25
I 1 Máximo 27 33
Minimo 27

MaxZ = V 27 VE 27 33
c, Hurwicz and Savage criteria (Profit Matrix)

to choose the best technology of four possible, whose performance depends on the
pments that comprise it. The expected benefits of each alternative and degree of
ons of pesos ($). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,7.

Wald or pessimistic, optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal

we use the following formula:

Event
Fits very
Fits well
well
2265 2330
2252 2328
2256 2303
2255 2322
2275 2335
 Event

Fits very 𝑨_𝒊

Fits well
well

453 466 2218.8

450 466 2218.4
451 461 2222.6
451 464 2215.8
455 467 2223.2

it has a better profit

ong all of them.

Event

Fits very
Fits well Result
well

2265 2330 2118

2252 2328 2109
2256 2303 2145
2255 2322 2130
2275 2335 2128

it is the worst

ong all of them.

Event
 Fits very
Fits well Result
well

2265 2330 2330

2252 2328 2328
2256 2303 2303
2255 2322 2322
2275 2335 2335

it has a better profit

Event

Fits very
Fits well well Result

2265 2330 2266

2252 2328 2262
2256 2303 2256
2255 2322 2264
2275 2335 2273

it has a better profit

Event

Fits very
Fits well
well

2265 2330
2252 2328
2256 2303
2255 2322
2275 2335
 Event

Fits very
Fits well Result
well

10 5 32
23 7 36
19 32 32
20 13 39
0 0 32

because it has a lower opportunity cost

c, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix):

s to imports from the USA, must plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its
number of crates is not known, but is expected to fall into one of five categories: 610,
levels of supply. The deviation from the number of hoppers is expected to result in
ause demand can not be met. The table below shows the costs in hundreds of dollars

Wald or pessimistic, optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal

we use the following formula:

 Event
e4(715) e5(730)
2271 2332
2281 2315
2275 2317
2286 2331
2287 2329

Event
e4(715) e5(730) 𝑨_𝒊
454 466 2229.0
456 463 2217.6
455 463 2227.4
457 466 2228.2
457 466 2233.6

est level of supplies is the one associated with the lowest expected cost

ong all of them.

Event
e4(715) e5(730) Result
2271 2332 2109
2281 2315 2112
2275 2317 2137
2286 2331 2110
2287 2329 2136
ong all of them.

Event
e4(715) e5(730) Result
2271 2332 2332
2281 2315 2315
2275 2317 2317
2286 2331 2331
2287 2329 2329

Event
e4(715) e5(730) Result
2271 2332 2265
2281 2315 2254
2275 2317 2263
2286 2331 2265
2287 2329 2271

s a lower cost

Event
e4(715) e5(730)
2271 2332
 2281 2315
2275 2317
2286 2331
2287 2329

Event
e4(715) e5(730) Result
0 17 45
10 0 10
4 2 28
15 16 24
16 14 27

c, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix):

s to imports from the USA, must plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its
number of crates is not known, but is expected to fall into one of five categories: 580,
levels of supply. The deviation from the number of hoppers is expected to result in
ause demand can not be met. The table below shows the costs in hundreds of dollars

Wald or pessimistic, optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal

we use the following formula:

 Event
e4(715) e5(730)
1283 1311
1298 1314
1281 1346
1276 1349
1260 1328

Event
e4(715) e5(730) 𝑨_𝒊
257 262 1226.2
260 263 1227.2
256 269 1231.8
255 270 1237.0
252 266 1236.4

est level of supplies is the one associated with the lowest expected cost

ong all of them.

Event
e4(715) e5(730) Result
1283 1311 1147
1298 1314 1109
1281 1346 1106
1276 1349 1134
1260 1328 1149
ong all of them.

Event
e4(715) e5(730) Result
1283 1311 1311
1298 1314 1314
1281 1346 1346
1276 1349 1349
1260 1328 1328

Event
e4(715) e5(730) Result
1283 1311 1262
1298 1314 1253
1281 1346 1274
1276 1349 1285
1260 1328 1274

s a lower cost

Event
e4(715) e5(730)
1283 1311
 1298 1314
1281 1346
1276 1349
1260 1328

Event
e4(715) e5(730) Result
23 0 41
38 3 41
21 35 35
16 38 38
0 17 45

ch at least one of the players has only two strategies. Consider the following 2 x n game:

Player 2
C
38
31

ns of the graphical method applied to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.

Player 2
C Minimo
38 27 Maximin
31 19
38

a saddle stitch.
ch at least one of the players has only two strategies. Consider the following game m x

ans of the graphical method applied to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.

Minimo
27
19
33 Maximin
33

Estrategia A-2 Estrategia A-3

o = 27P1 + 33P2 Valor esperado = 19P1 + 33P2

P1 + P2 = 1
P2 =1 - P1

P1 en la ecuación Reemplazando P1 en la ecuación

o = 27P1 + 33 (1-P1) Valor esperado = 19P1 + 33 (1-P1)
o = 27P1 + 33-33P1 Valor esperado =19P1 + 33-33P1
o = -6P1 + 33 Valor esperado = -14P1 + 33

Si P = 1
o = -6(1) + 33 Valor esperado = -14(1) + 33
Valor esperado = -14 + 33
Valor esperado = 19

Si P = 0
o = -6(0) + 33 Valor esperado = -14(0) +33
Valor esperado = 0 +33
Valor esperado = 33
 Estrategia B-5 Estrategia B-6

o = 33P1 + 37P2 Valor esperado = 25P1 + 37P2

P1 + P2 = 1
P2 =1 - P1

P1 en la ecuación Reemplazando P1 en la ecuación

o = 33P1 + 37 (1-P1) Valor esperado = 25P1 + 37 (1-P1)
o = 33P1 + 37-37P1 Valor esperado = 25P1 + 37-37P1
o = -4P1 + 37 Valor esperado = -12P1 + 37

Si P = 1
o = -4(1) + 33 Valor esperado = -12(1) + 33
Valor esperado = -12 + 33
Valor esperado = 21

Si P = 0
o = -4(0) + 33 Valor esperado = -12(0) + 33
Valor esperado = 0 + 33
Valor esperado = 33
s (Theory of games, mixed strategies):

on where intelligent opponents are working in a conflicting

erion is generally proposed to solve sets of two people and sum zero,
game, the minimax = maximin, it is necessary to solve the stable

PLAYER B
81 80 91
86 86 82
86 89 84
91 89 88
35 88 81

ue of the game, using the proposed Excel tool, according to the data

Q3 Q4 Q5 I MinZ = V
0 0 0 1 87

PLAYER B Minimo Maximo VE

81 80 91 80 81
86 86 82 82 84
86 89 84 78 87 82
 87
91 89 88 87 87
35 88 81 35 83
91 89 91
87

91 89 88

ent. Collaborative activity

e presented for the use of the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the
your final collaborative work, the income and results table for the Exercises raised. In
the use of educational resources.
 Q3 I MinZ = V
0 1 27

Player 2
C Minimo Maximo VE
38 27 27
27
31 19 19
38
27

38