Probability and Confidence Intervals Analysis
Probability and Confidence Intervals Analysis
A
random sample of 40 customers was taken from Sony Mony, a dealer of LG products, at Andheri(W). What is the probability that
the sample average expenditure per customer will be Rs.87 or more?
8.0%
At a particular point in time, the number of shops/stalls open in InOrbit Mall, at Malad (W) has an average of 448 with a
standard deviation of 21. What is the probability that a random sample of 49 will yield a sample mean between 441
and 446 shops open at that point of time?
24.3%
23.2%
Big Bazar, a chain of 145 shoping malls has been bought out by another larger nationwide supermarket chain.
Before the deal is finalized, the larger chain wants to have some assurance that Big Bazar will be a consistent
money maker. The larger chain has decided to look at the financial records of 30 of the Big Bazar outlets.
Big Bazar claims that each outlet's profits have an aproximately normal distribution with a mean of 26.6 and a
standard deviation of Rs.8.2 million. If the Big Bazar management is correct, then what is the probability that the
sample will have an average profit less than Rs.30 million?
99.4%
CLT = Central Limit Theorem
on of Rs.9. A
robability that
A survey was taken of US companies that do business with firms in Brazil.
One of the questions on the survey was: Approximately how many years has your company
been trading with firms in Brazil? A random sample of 44 responses to this question yielded
a mean of 10.455 years. Suppose the population standard deviation for this question is 7.7 years.
Using this information construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean number of years that
a company has been trading in Brazil for the population of US companies trading with firms in Brazil.
x-bar 10.455
sigma 7.7
n 44
The probability with which the population mean (miu) will lie are:
Lower Limit 8.54562318952
Upper Limit 12.3643768105 OR 12.36438
Range 3.81875362096
What happen to the limits when the sample size becomes 440? Inceasring sample improves
x-bar 10.455
sigma 7.7
n 440
The probability with which the population mean (miu) will lie are:
Lower Limit 9.85120203674
Upper Limit 11.0587979633 OR 11.0588
Range 1.20759592652
What happens if the sampel size is 44 abd the population size is 440? Adding population correction
x-bar 10.455
sigma 7.7
n 44
The probability with which the population mean (miu) will lie are:
Lower Limit 8.64154419277
Upper Limit 12.2684558072 OR 12.26846
Range 3.62691161446
A small lawnmower company produced 1,500 lawnmowers in 2002. In an effort to determine how
maintenance-free these units were, the company decided to conduct a multiyear study of the 2002
lawnmowers. A sample of 200 owners of these lawnmowers was drawn randomly from company
records and contacted. The owners were given an 1800 125 125 toll-free number and asked to
call the company when the first major repair was required for the lawnmowers. Owners who no
longer used the lawnmowers to cut their grass were disqualified. After many years, 187 of the
owners had reported. The other 13 disqualified themselves. The average number of years until the
first major repair was 5.3 for the 187 owners reporting. It was believed that the population standard
deviation was 1.28 years. If the company wants to advertise an average number of years of repair-
free lawnmowing for this lawnmower, what is the point estimate? Construct a 95% confidence
interval for the average number of years unit the first major repair.
According to a recent census report, the average travel time to work in Pune is 27.4 minutes. Suppose
business researcher wants to estimate the average travel time to work in Nagpur using a 95% level of
confidence. A random sample of 45 Pune communters is taken and the travel time to work is obtained
from each one of them. The data is given below. Assuming a population standard deviation of 5.124,
compute a 95% confidence interval on the data. What is the point estimate and what is the error of the
interval?
27 25 19 21 24 27 29
20 32 27 28 22 20 14
16 29 28 28 27 23 27
26 14 23 27 27 21 25
Summary measures
Sample size 45
Sample mean 24.533
Sample standard deviation 5.124
% level of confidence
Confidence interval for standard deviation
ation standard deviation? Confidence level 95.0%
Sample standard deviation 5.124
Degrees of freedom 44
Lower limit 4.242
Upper limit 6.473
Customer Satisfaction Results for one-sample analysis for Satisfaction
1 7
2 5 Summary measures
3 5 Sample size 40
4 6 Sample mean 6.250
5 8 Sample standard deviation 1.597
6 7
7 6 Confidence interval for mean
8 7 Confidence level 95.0%
9 10 Sample mean 6.250
10 7 Std error of mean 0.253
11 9 Degrees of freedom 39
12 5 Lower limit 5.739
13 5 Upper limit 6.761
14 8
15 8
16 6
17 7
18 8
19 7
20 5
21 5
22 5
23 5
24 5
25 2 Both Mean and std. dev. are required to comment
26 5
27 8 Results for one-sample analysis for Satisfaction
28 7
29 6 Summary measures
30 6 Sample size 40
31 4 Sample mean 6.250
32 6 Sample standard deviation 1.597
33 6
34 5 Confidence interval for mean
35 6 Confidence level 95.0%
36 7 Sample mean 6.250
37 8 Std error of mean 0.253
38 9 Degrees of freedom 39
39 5 Lower limit 5.739
40 4 Upper limit 6.761 6.250
n 40.000 Solution
x-bar 6.250 Suggest Jagdish to launch since aveg. Satisfaction (LL) is quite good using
s 1.597 At aconfidence level of 95%, we can suggest Jagdish to launch the sandwic
t 2.023
SE 0.253 OR
LL 5.739 At a confidence level of 95%, Jagdish can be suggested to fo for further imp
UL 6.761 1.021666
be suggested to fo for further improvement of the sandwich, as the feedback is not very high (varies between 5.7 and 6.7)
m accepatble level. Assumptions is that min acceptable level is 5 (average of 1 & 10)
s one-tailed alternative Test of mean>=6 versus one-tailed alternative Test of mean=6 versus two
6.000 Hypothesized mean 6.000
6.250 Sample mean 6.250
0.253 Std error of mean 0.253
39 Degrees of freedom 39
0.990 t-test statistic 0.990
0.164 p-value 0.836
Sum 1.0
0.328= (1/2)*0.164
Just Like LOS, p value for two-tail doubles of the one-tail for which the rejection happens
H1 Alternative = 6
Results for one-sample analysis for Satisfaction
Summary measures
Sample size 40
Sample mean 6.250
Sample standard deviation 1.597
est of mean>=5 versus one-tailed alternative Test of mean=5 versus two-tailed alternative
Hypothesized mean 5.000 Hypothesized mean 5.000
Sample mean 6.250 Sample mean 6.250
Std error of mean 0.253 Std error of mean 0.253
Degrees of freedom 39 Degrees of freedom 39
t-test statistic 4.949 t-test statistic 4.949
p-value 0.999993 p-value 0.000
0.123758518322
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes data on the hourly
Example: compensation costs for production workers in manufacturing for
various countries. The latest figures published for Greece show that
the average hourly wage for a production worker in manufacturing
is $9.63. Suppose the business council of Greece wants to know
how consistent this figure is. They randomly select 25 production
workers in manufacturing from across the country and determine
that the standard deviation of hourly wages for such workers is
$1.12. Use this information to develop a 95% confidence interval to
estimate the population variance for the hourly wages of production
workers in manufacturing in Greece. Assume that the hourly wages
of production workers across the country in manufacturing are
normally distributed.
A Manufacturing plant produces steel rods. During a production run of 20,000 such rods,
the specifications called for rods that were 46 cms in length and 3.8 cms in width. Fifteen
of these rods comprising a random sample were measured for length; the resulting
measurements are shown below. Use these data to estimate the population variance of
length for the rods. Assume that rod length is normally distributed in the population.
Construct a 99% confidence interval.
Rod Length
44
45
48
47
43 Solve
48
43
44
43
46
47
44
46
46
45
59.34171
24.43304 This value is higher since area under the curve
Case I: Bajaj Capital Group
Bajaj Capital Group is one of India's premier Investment Advisory and Financial Planning companies.
The company offers personalized services to individual investors, corporate houses institutional
investors, NRIs, and High Networth Clients, among others. As an endeavor to improve its brand
positioning in the market, Bajaj Capital is now planning to add a new feature to its Newsletter -
"Investors India" by reporting the results of a weekly telephone survey of Fund Managers.
To investigate the feasibility of offering this service, and to determine what type of information to
include in Investors India, Bajaj Capital selected a simple random sample of 45 money market funds,
which are essentially mutual funds. Data was collected on fund assets (Rs.in crore) and yields for the past 7
and 30 days. Bajaj Capital wants to conduct some preliminary study on the data collected,
before contacting the relevant Fund Managers.
1. Descriptive statistics to summarize the data on assets and yields for the money market funds.
2. 95% confidence interval estimate of the mean assets, mean 7-day yield, and mean 30-day yield
for the population of money market funds.
3. Implication of the above findings in terms of how Bajaj Capital can use this type of information
in preparing their newsletter, Investors India.
4. What other information would you recommend that Bajaj Capital gather to provide to their clients?
a. DLF is interested in comparing the summary statistics of all 3 variables for the 2 categories of condominiums.
b. Is it possible for DLF to develop 95% confidence interval estimates of the population mean sales price and
population mean number of days to sell for Sea View condominiums in comparison with No Sea View
condominiums. Interpret your results.
c. The Mumbai Operations Head is interested to estimate the mean selling price of Sea View condominium with a
margin of error of Rs.40 lakhs and the mean selling price of No Sea View condominiums with a margin of error
of Rs.15 lakhs. Using 95% confidence, how large should the sample sizes be?
Rs. in lakhs
Sea View Condominiums
Planning companies.
s institutional List Price Sale Price Days to Sell
rove its brand 421 404 163
Newsletter - 322 298 89
450 441 106
f information to 470 454 119
oney market funds, 285 285 149
) and yields for the past 7 468 429 115
144 140 246
179 179 70
829 803 91
market funds. 267 267 158
an 30-day yield 268 259 110
752 680 353
e of information 829 829 125
399 378 70
ide to their clients? 280 259 61
310 281 60
30-day Yield 282 265 110
5.10 442 421 201
5.91 361 344 186
5.16 574 569 178
5.40 348 340 35
5.59 552 552 36
4.79 271 259 175
5.28 361 349 106
5.05 305 289 134
4.89 399 382 90
5.24 761 744 161
4.39 373 366 200
3.26 370 340 258
4.86 200 193 114
5.51 542 525 125
5.14 535 510 121
5.43 280 263 143
5.53 506 472 56
5.60 288 268 188
4.81 183 170 60
4.90 336 319 169
5.01 382 361 66
4.95 424 395 108
4.78 373 364 198
5.29
5.00
4.89
4.84
5.33 Summary measures for selected variables
5.80 Assets
5.06 Count 45.000
5.23 Mean 2493.511
5.25 Standard deviation 5805.156
5.18 Std Error of estm 865.382
5.21 t-value 2.32071078773
5.50 Lower limit 485.210664197
5.25 upper limit 4501.81155803
5.20
4.83
5.09
5.15
5.16
5.36
5.24
4.86
5.26
2 categories of condominiums.
lation mean sales price and
ison with No Sea View
Results for one-sample analysis for Satisfaction Q. Is the avg satisfaction of PGDM is sta. diff t
Solution
Suggest Jagdish to launch since aveg. Satisfaction (LL) is quite good using t-dist (above average )5.
At aconfidence level of 95%, we can suggest Jagdish to launch the sandwich, as the averafge of the lower li
OR
At a confidence level of 95%, Jagdish can be suggested to fo for further improvement of the sandwich, as th
1.021666
0.989982
its which are more conservative that normal dist
imits for t-dist are broader than normal dist.
0.25
0.25
0.99
provement of the sandwich, as the feedback is not very high (varies between 5.7 and 6.7)
is that min acceptable level is 5 (average of 1 & 10)