Global Market Forecast
Cities,
Airports
& Aircraft
2019-2038
Christian Scherer
Chief Commercial Officer
Head of Airbus International
2018 was a good year and 2019 looks to be another solid year
2018 2019
7.4% 5.0%
RPK growth RPK growth
3.2% 2.7%
GDP growth GDP growth
+280 +200
million passengers million passengers
81.9% 82.1%
Record Load factor Record Load factor
9th 10th
year of solid year of solid airline profitability
airline profitability Note: IATA forecast as of June 2019
2
Source: ICAO, IATA, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019
10 years of strong growth and solid profitability
World annual added traffic (billion RPKs)
Oil Gulf Asian Financial
9/11 SARS
750 Crisis Crisis Crisis Crisis
Billions
+600 billion
RPKs
600
450
300
150
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019
-150
$292 bn $269 bn
profit Profit*
* IATA Forecast, June 2019
3 Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2019
Drivers for Growth
Urbanisation Wealth Liberalisation
- 2000: - 2000: - On average
47% ~ 900 million 700 net routes
of World population in urban areas emerging countries Middle-Class added each year since 2000
- 2018: - 2018:
55% 2.7 billion
4 Source: UN Population, Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019
Air transport becoming more balanced and resilient
Origin & Destination traffic from/to each city
2018
5 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Air transport becoming more balanced and resilient
Origin & Destination traffic from/to each city
2038
6 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)
Domestic PRC20 x3.2
Domestic USA19
Intra - Western Europe18
Western Europe - USA 17
Western Europe - Middle East16
Domestic - Asia Emerging 15 x3.8
14
Domestic - India x4.8
Central Europe - Western Europe 13
Asia Developed - Asia Emerging 12
Indian Sub-continent - Middle East
11 x3.3
Asia Emerging - PRC 10 x4.0
Asia Emerging - Middle East9 x3.4
Asia Developed - Western Europe8
Asia Developed - USA7
PRC - USA6 x3.7
Asia Developed - PRC5 x3.3 2018
Western Europe - South America4
Intra - Asia Developed3 2038
Western Europe - PRC2
Intra - Middle-East1
0
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500
RPKs (billion)
Billions
7 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)
Domestic PRC20 x3.2
Domestic USA19 x1.5
Intra - Western Europe18 x1.6
Western Europe - USA 17 x1.7
Western Europe - Middle East16
Domestic - Asia Emerging 15 x3.8
14
Domestic - India x4.8
Central Europe - Western Europe 13
Asia Developed - Asia Emerging 12
Indian Sub-continent - Middle East
11 x3.3
Asia Emerging - PRC 10 x4.0
Asia Emerging - Middle East9 x3.4
Asia Developed - Western Europe8
Asia Developed - USA7
PRC - USA6 x3.7
Asia Developed - PRC5 x3.3 2018
Western Europe - South America4
Intra - Asia Developed3 2038
Western Europe - PRC2
Intra - Middle-East1
0
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500
RPKs (billion)
Billions
8 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Networks are growing with more net new routes created
Nb. of city-pairs
5,000
4,000
3,000
Created
2,000
Net new city-pairs
1,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-1,000
-2,000
Dropped
-3,000
9 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, aircraft ≥100seats
The air transport industry has delivered strong improvements in productivity
Daily
Utilisation
1998
2018
8.4
10.7
+2
hours/day
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Average
Seats per
1998
2018
160
178
+18
seats/flight
RPK (m) 1998 300m
+40%
Flight per a/c 2018 415m
0 50 100 150 200
0 100 200 300 400
Load
Factor
1998
2018
69%
82%
+13pp
0% 50% 100%
10 Source: IATA, ICAO, Cirium, OAG, Airbus GMF 2019
Improved efficiency has delivered continuous fuel burn and CO2 reduction
Fuel consumption & CO2 emissions
Base 100 in 1990 based on Kilograms per RPK (avg.)
100
90
80 -53%
70 2018 vs. 1990
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
11 Source: IATA, ICAO, Airbus GMF 2019
Demand for ~39,200 new aircraft deliveries by 2038
Airbus GMF18 Airbus GMF19
Gross Domestic Product 2.8% 2.8%
20-year CAGR
Passenger Traffic 4.4% 4.3%
20-year CAGR
Freight Traffic 3.7% 3.6%
20-year CAGR
Start fleet 21,450 22,680
(Passenger & Freighter)
End fleet 47,990 47,680
(Passenger & Freighter)
New Deliveries 37,390 39,210
(Passenger & Freighter)
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
12
36% of new deliveries for replacement, 64% for growth
Number of aircraft
50,000 47,680
45,000
40,000
35,000 25,000 Grow
30,000
25,000 22,680 39,210 New deliveries
20,000
15,000
14,210 Replace
10,000
5,000
8,470 Stay
0
Beginning 2019 2038 New Deliveries
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats), Freighters (>10t) | Rounded figures to nearest 10
13 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Demand for some 850 new build freighter aircraft in the next 20 years
World 20-year freighter demand, by aircraft category [2019-2038]
1,200
New Build
Conversion
1,000
800
500
600
400
350
200
0
SMALL MEDIUM LARGE
10t < payload < 40t 40t < payload < 80t payload > 80t
Notes: Jet aircraft (>10ton)
14 Source: Airbus 2019
Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft
29,720 aircraft 5,370 aircraft 4,120 aircraft
76% share of total new del. 14% share of total new del. 10% share of total new del
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
15 Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t
Our products & their core market segments
16
Unbeatable fuel efficiency
Aircraft category
Versatility on short- to Step-change economics Superior single-
medium-haul operations vs competitors aisle comfort
17
Profitable partnership
Aircraft category
All-NEO design: new Up to 30% better cost 40 airlines already flying
engines, Airspace cabin per seat vs previous both Families on the
generation same routes
18
The all-new design widebody
Aircraft category
Only all-new large >8,000 nm 45t lower TOW Outstanding
widebody range vs competitor EIS
19
Summary
Strong & Resilient passenger traffic growth
Middle-class to increase by 50% by 2038
Air traffic (RPK) forecast to growth 4.3% p.a.
39,210 new deliveries by 2038
38,360 passenger aircraft
850 freighters
~36% of deliveries for replacement
~64% for growth
76% Small (29,720 units)
14% Medium (5,370 units)
10% Large (4,120 units)
20 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
