A Survey on some of the Global Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Ishaani Priyadarshini*, Department of Electrical and Computer Science, University of Delaware, Newark,
Delaware, USA, ​[email protected]

Abstract
Ever since COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, it has gained a lot of
popularity. Within a span of two months, it managed to travel across the globe and affected more than a
million people, resulting in several deaths. The World Health Organization recently declared COVID-19 as
a pandemic over the number of cases registered by country. However, there is a lot more to just people
being infected by the disease. Apparently COVID-19 has managed to disrupt businesses all over the world
causing world panic. In this paper, some global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are identified and
certain trends related to the same over the approximate time period of January 2020- March 2020 have been
observed. The impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the travel
and tourism industry and high tech product shipments have been analyzed. The study would assist the
industries to prepare better for the global crisis and would assist them in contemplating specific scenarios in
case of an epidemic or pandemic in the future.

Keywords​: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Pandemic, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Global Effects

1. Introduction
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are capable of causing illness in animals and humans, thus
affecting many living species. Some coronaviruses that are known to affect humans are Middle East
Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) (​Guarner,2020​).
COVID-19 is the most recently discovered coronavirus. The 2019 novel coronavirus or COVID-19 is a
virus strain, which was first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019 (​Novel, 2020​).
Ever since its identification, it has managed to spread across the globe and infect more than a million
people across various continents. Since it is zoonotic, many people attribute their origin to be mammals like
bats (​Zhou et. al, 2020​). Several others attribute the COVID-19 outbreak to the seafood market in China
(​Jiang et al, 2020​).
Since its identification, in December 2019, COVID-19 has managed to spread across the globe and cause
several deaths, which led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare it a pandemic (​Gates, 2020​).
Given the fact that the pandemic has been spreading across the globe rampantly, within two months it has
affected a million people over more than 80 countries with a mortality rate of 3.4%. Some of the countries
that have been affected the most are China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran (​Porcheddu et al, 2020; MacIntyre,
2020​). The increasing number of confirmed cases led to the closing down of several businesses in China
and also resulted in locking down Italy. And the number of cases keeps on increasing on a daily basis.
What makes COVID-19 outrageous is that it can spread before it produces standard symptoms like the
common cold and several days after recovery. With the incubation period being more than five days, it is
hard to tell if a patient is suffering from COVID-19 or not. This has led to an increase in the number of
cases over the last couple of months. What makes the situation even worse, is that there is no vaccine for
treating COVID-19 as of yet. Therefore, with the increasing number of people who are infected with the
pandemic, several businesses are also affected. Industries like the airline, tourism, retail, etc may witness
the effect of the coronavirus outbreak (​Habibi et, al, 2020; Allam and Jones, 2020​). Due to globalization,
several other industries may also be affected thus leading to an overall global effect. Since COVID-19 has
been spreading like forest fires and may continue doing so before its vaccine is finally developed, it is

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important to anticipate what global impacts it may have and what all industries might be affected by its
spreading. This paper presents how COVID-19 has spread across the globe as well as the various industries
it affects like travel, tourism, shipment, etc by plotting trends for existing data. Further, trends to analyze
the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss due to the
pandemic have also been presented.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 lists the related works that have been done in the
past related to COVID-19. In Section 3 the economic sectors that are believed to be the most affected by
the pandemic have been presented. Section 4 takes into account the Experimental Analysis, while Section
5, highlights the Results and Findings. In section 6, Conclusion and Future Work are reported.

2. Related Work
In this section, some of the research works that have been done in the past for COVID-19 are presented.
This is followed by a critical evaluation of the existing works so as to highlight the novelty of the proposed
research work.

(​Chinnazi et al, 2020​) presented research on the effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the COVID-19
outbreak. A global metapopulation disease transmission model has been taken into account for depicting
the impact of travel limitations nationally as well as internationally. Since the cases have been listed from
23 January 2020, most Chinese cities might have already received several infected travelers. Modeling
results also depict that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect
the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
Based on the research it is expected that travel restrictions to COVID-19 affected areas will have modest
effects. Moreover, transmission-reduction interventions may also assist in mitigating the epidemic.

(​Qi et. al, 2020​) conducted a large scale survey of the psychological distress among Chinese people due to
the COVID-19 epidemic. The psychological distress may be attributed to the unprecedented strict
quarantine measures in China. Due to this, a large number of people have been kept in isolation this has
affected several aspects of their lives. Moreover, it has also triggered a wide variety of psychological
problems, such as panic disorder, anxiety, and depression. The study provides certain recommendations for
improving the mental situation of the patients. Some of the recommendations are paying more attention to
vulnerable groups like the young, the elderly, women and migrant workers, and easy accessibility of
medical resources and the public health service system for the patients. Nationwide strategic planning and
coordination for psychological first aid during major disasters may possibly be established and a
comprehensive crisis prevention system that incorporates monitoring, screening, etc could be built to
reduce psychological distress and prevent further mental health problems.

(​Heymann and Shindo, 2020​) laid out some mitigation strategies in case COVID-19 affects a wider
community. Close monitoring, continued evolution of communication strategies, intensive control for
isolated patients and containment activities could be a few ways to ensure public health. Intensified active
surveillance, preparation for the resilience of health systems and mitigation activities may also contribute to
public health. Serological tests and continuous research are also necessary to prevent the pandemic.

(​Gilbert et. al, 2020​) performed a study to analyze the vulnerability of African countries against
importations of COVID-19. The study was conducted by taking into account the volume of air travel
departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of
importation per country. Preparedness and Vulnerability of the country were used as indicators to detect the
vulnerability of the countries (WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation

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Framework and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index). It was found that Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa
are the countries with the highest importation risk and they have moderate to high capacity to respond to
outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk are Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya.
They have variable capacity and high vulnerability.

(​Wong et. al, 2020​) listed seven critical issues for the COVID-19 outbreak in Singapore that require
coordinated attention and action. Better understanding regarding the modes of transmission, detailed travel
and exposure history of the epidemic and identification of individuals who are at greater risk of the
infection are some issues. Further, information on the effectiveness of agents and better communication
ways may also be helpful. Healthcare professionals who care for COVID-19 patients could be under
enormous stress, and therefore it must be taken into consideration. The development of an effective vaccine
would definitely prevent the rampant spreading of the disease.

(​Columbus et. al 2020​) label COVID-19 as an emerging global threat in their study. The research provides
a timeline of the epidemic and lists the number of cases confirmed, recovered and cases that resulted in the
death of the patient. The clinical features of COVID-19 have also been mentioned in the article. It is
suggested that diagnosis be performed by the RT-PCR analysis of upper respiratory, lower respiratory and
serum samples. For infection control, a high level of vigilance and timely consultation are required. Patients
must undergo isolations as part of the treatment. There are several unresolved issues pertaining to
information regarding the virology, epidemiology, and transmission of COVID-19.

(​Sun et. al, 2020​) presented a study on COVID-19 based on current evidence. The study details that the
source of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 are related since both are zoonotic. The study also presents the
epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 related to incubation rate and fatality rate. The mechanism,
symptoms, and diagnosis of COVID-19 have been mentioned along with the prevention and treatment. The
study also mentions that pulmonary fibrosis may be one of the severe complications after patients recover
from COVID-2019.

(​Mustapha et. al, 2020​) suggested some public health preparedness for the COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria.
Nigeria appears to be equipped with the technical and human resources required to diagnose COVID-19. A
Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System has been developed to treat patients diagnosed
with COVID-19.

(​Koh, 2020​) presented a study on the occupational risks of the COVID-19. Since it is contagious, several
occupational groups are at risk of being infected. Some groups that have been infected are domestic
workers, tour guides, taxi drivers, casino workers, etc. These workers may be staff in the tourism, retail,
and hospitality industry, transport and security workers, and construction industry. The crew on ships,
healthcare professionals, ambulance drivers, etc. are also at the risk of getting infected.

(​Gallego et. al, 2020​) performed a study on the COVID-19 outbreak and its implications on the Tokyo 2020
Summer Olympic Games. Japan is believed to be the third most affected country after China and South
Korea. It is expected that Tokyo will receive 20 million visitors (non-residents), to be attended by 70,000
volunteers of the games and 8000 for the city. 11,090 Olympic athletes would be participating in the event
Also there will be 14 million food dishes to be served to the participants. All these conditions pose a major
challenge for organizers, especially considering health security. Moreover, the relative position of the
Yokohama port, where the cruise ship Diamond Princess is docked is very close to the venue of the
Olympic Games.

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 Table 1:​ Summarized Critical Evaluation of prior works
Year and Author Research Methodology/ Limitations
Parameters

Chinnazi et. al, 2020 Research on the effect Global metapopulation Cases have been listed
of travel restrictions on disease transmission from 23 January 2020,
the spread of the model so it is possible that a
COVID-19 outbreak lot of Chinese cities
might have already
been infected by then.
The research takes into
account travel
restrictions to and fro
Mainland China, while
COVID-19 is a global
pandemic.

Qi et. al, 2020 Large scale survey of Self-reporting While the research is a
the psychological questionnaire and large scale survey, due
distress among Chinese several questions to the lack of empirical
people due to the related to demographic data (trends and
COVID-19 epidemic data (ie, province, graphs), it is difficult to
gender, age, education, anticipate the overall
and occupation), results. Further, the
frequency of anxiety, study was restricted to
depression, specific only China and has data
phobias, cognitive up to 10 February 2020.
change, avoidance and
compulsive behavior,
physical symptoms, and
loss of social
functioning in the past
week.

Heymann and Shindo, Proposed some Close monitoring There is no justification

2020 mitigation strategies for continued evolution of or experimental
COVID-19 communication analysis of how the
strategies, intensive proposed
control for isolated methodologies might
patients, containment actually be effective.
activities, etc.

Gilbert et. al, 2020 Study to analyze the WHO International Only three airports have
vulnerability of African Health Regulations been taken into
countries against Monitoring and consideration.
importations of Evaluation Framework Moreover, Hubei,
and Infectious Disease where COVID-19 was
COVID-19.
Vulnerability Index first identified, has not
been taken into
consideration.

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Wong et. al, 2020 Listed seven critical A better understanding The study is confined to
issues for the of the modes of Singapore while
COVID-19 outbreak in transmission, detailed COVID-19 is a global
Singapore travel and exposure epidemic and similar
issues are present
history of the epidemic
globally.
and identification of
individuals who are at
greater risk of the
infection, etc.

Columbus et. al 2020 Study on COVID-19 Timeline of the The study does not
outbreak epidemic, clinical perform any
features, diagnosis, experimental analysis
infection control, etc. or present the findings
in the form of graphs or
trends.
Moreover, the
pandemic is listed as a
global threat, but the
article does not mention
anything about the
global issues caused
due to COVID-19

Sun et. al, 2020 Study on COVID-19 Epidemiological The study does not take
based on current characteristics, into account any
evidence mechanism, symptoms, empirical study or
diagnosis prevention, experimental analysis.
treatment

Mustapha et. al, 2020 Public health Surveillance and The study is confined to
preparedness for the Outbreak Response Nigeria although
COVID-19 outbreak in Management System, COVID-19 is a global
Nigeria sufficient technical and pandemic.
The study lack
human resources
empirical study and
experimental .analysis

Koh, 2020 Study on the Observed 25 locally Cases confirmed are

occupational risks of transmitted cases in confined to Singapore
the COVID-19 Singapore while COVID-19 is a
global epidemic.

Gallego et. al, 2020 Implications of Anticipating the The study does not
COVID-19 on Tokyo number of people who feature any graph plots
2020 Summer Olympic will be attending the or trends (empirical
Games event, study or experimental
The location from analysis)
Yokohama port to the
venues of the game

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In this section, some of the prior work that has been done with respect to the COVID-19 outbreak has been
listed. A critical analysis of the existing works was also presented so as to highlight the contribution of the
proposed research work with respect to the already existing works. Some observations based on the related
work as follows
1. Many research papers discuss the overall analysis of the COVID-19 outbreak and suggested
several critical measures that could be taken into account for controlling its spread. While its
implications on psychology as well as events like the Olympic Games were highlighted, the
overall implication or global effects were not taken into consideration. Detailed research about the
global effects of COVID-19 has been presented for the first time in the proposed research work.
2. Three important economy sectors i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GPD), Travel and Tourism
Industry and High Tech Products shipment have been considered for the research.
3. Several research papers are similar to reports since they lack any experimental analysis or
empirical study. In this paper, the global effects of the COVID-19 outbreak have been justified
using several graphs.
4. The COVID-19 outbreak has been analyzed specific to locations like Japan, Nigeria, Singapore,
etc. in the past. This research takes into account the effects of COVID-19 on a global scale.
5. The dataset used in this paper the latest and has more data, which gives a better analysis of the
COVID-19 outbreak (January 22, 2020, to March 12, 2020)

3. Proposed Work
Since its identification in December 2019, COVID-19 has spread across the globe very quickly and has
affected several continents. While the number of confirmed cases keeps on increasing, the pandemic has
also vandalized other several industries. In this section, three sectors of the economy that are believed to
have been affected due to the outbreak are taken into consideration. They are as follows:
1. Gross Domestic Product: T ​ he Gross Domestic Product is used to measure the value of economic
activity within a country. It may be defined as the sum of the market values, or prices, of all final
goods and services produced in an economy during a period of time. GDP may have several
components to it. It may also be expressed as a number that explains the worth of the output of a
country in local currency. It is one of the most common indicators for tracking the health of a
nation’s economy. Economists use GDP to determine whether an economy is growing or
experiencing a recession.​ COVID-19 may have an impact on the global economy in three main
ways:
a. Direct impact on production: With the outbreak of COVID-19, Hubei province
and other areas have been shut down which has an effect on the Chinese
production of goods. Due to globalization, many countries may also have a
direct impact. The slowdown in China has effects on exporters to China. China
has exporters all over the world. Therefore even without any new outbreaks of
the disease, these countries might experience slow growth in the first half of
2020.
b. Supply chain and market disruption: China is the production hub for many
goods and several manufacturing firms all over the world rely on imported
goods from China and other countries that have been affected by the COVID-19
outbreak. Sales in China also have an impact on the financial goals of several
firms. With the economic activities and transportation restrictions, several firms
and countries will be affected in terms of the production and profitability of
manufacturing goods and raw materials. Companies that rely on intermediate
goods may not be able to switch sourcing and may ultimately have to depend on

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 the fading of the outbreak. This will slow down the production process and
companies will suffer huge losses. Small and medium-sized firms may find it
even more difficult to survive. Businesses tied to travel and tourism industries
have been worst affected and may not recover anytime soon.
c. The financial impact on firms and financial markets: Disruptions in the
production of goods may be stressful for firms with inadequate liquidity. It may
be difficult for traders to comprehend the firms that might be vulnerable. The
resulting rise in risk may also lead to financial market players taking investment
positions that are unprofitable under current conditions. This would definitely
weaken trust in financial instruments and markets. As participants become more
concerned about counterparty risk, there could be financial market disruption.
There may also be a decline in equity markets and corporate bond markets due
to the uncertainty created by the pandemic. Compared to SARS, COVID-19 has
a much lower mortality rate, but it is more contagious. Hence, there is still a
great deal of uncertainty about COVID-19.

2. Global Travel and Tourism Industry​: The COVID-19 outbreak has been a major jolt to the travel
and tourism industry. Travel and tourism are huge global businesses that contribute to the global
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as global employment. The impact on travel to and from
China may have devastating effects on the global economy. Many Airlines, have canceled several
flights or significantly reduced the number of flights in and out of China. Many countries closed
their land borders, cross-border ferries, and railways to and from China. The crisis is severe in
Europe too. Since the outbreak, Italy, popular tourist destinations like Venice and Milan are
deserted. Public places like museums and theaters closed, while major events got canceled. The
tourism industry may witness empty hotels, canceled flights, closed tourist sights. Asian countries
like Indonesia, Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam that
are popular tourist attractions may also suffer. The fallout has also led to industries tied with
airlines, hotels, casinos, tourism offices and booking agencies scrambling. Smaller businesses like
souvenir shops, hotels, and tour operators may have to close down. An increase in domestic and
international travel restrictions, as well as increasing apprehension from travelers, could mean a
significant decline in global tourism if the spread of the virus continues to exacerbate. The global
coronavirus outbreak may put millions of travel and tourism jobs are at risk. Even Cruise ship firm
Princess Cruises may suspend all operations for a given period of time. Governments may have to
take several steps to protect the industry. Simplifying visas, reducing costs, promoting travel
destinations, etc. may be considered for strengthening the travel and tourism industry.

3. High Tech Products: With the largest concentration of electronics products assembled in China,
the COVID-19 outbreak creates huge problems for the entire tech industry, which ultimately has
global effects. Basic semiconductors and printed circuit boards (PCBs) to complete working
systems like smartphones and laptops could be impacted by the pandemic. Cars and industrial
applications may also be negatively impacted. Since China is the epicenter of technology
manufacturing, the COVID-19 outbreak could have a devastating effect on the global smartphone
market. Factory closures and delays in production might be there for an unknown period of time.
Production issues may also lead to replacement and servicing issues. There might be a drop in
shipments. If the coronavirus outbreak situation worsens, many Chinese brands may face the
same situation. Some companies may have to rely on overseas operations. As COVID-19 spreads
to other manufacturing centers, non-Chinese companies must take preventative measures.

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 Electronic goods might need to be produced at different locations for supply if the situation does
not improve.

4. Experimental Analysis
In the previous section, some economical sectors that might be affected due to the COVID-19 outbreak
were considered. It included Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the travel and tourism industry and high tech
products that are needed all over the world. In order to justify the proposed claim, that the COVID-19
outbreak has an impact on these economic sectors, several graphs, and trends have been presented in the
Results section. This section highlights the data gathered and what all trends are necessary to be presented
for the research.
4.1 Datasets
The datasets have been taken from The Humanitarian Data Exchange. The datasets incorporate Novel
CoronaVirus (COVID-19) epidemiological data since 22 January 2020. The data has been analyzed from
22 January 2020 to 12 March 2020. The data is compiled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for
Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE). The various sources of this data have been taken from the
World Health Organization (WHO), DXY.cn. Pneumonia. 2020, BNO News, National Health Commission
of the People’s Republic of China (NHC), China CDC (CCDC), Hong Kong Department of Health, Macau
Government, Taiwan CDC, US CDC, Government of Canada, Australia Government Department of
Health, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Ministry of Health Singapore
(MOH). JSU CCSE also maintains this data on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data
Repository on Github. Three datasets have been made available, which include fields Province/State,
Country/Region, Last Update, Confirmed, Suspected, Recovered, Deaths.
To show the trends related to the impact of COVID-19 on Gross Domestic Products, Travel and Tourism
Industry and High Tech Products, the datasets are based on the surveys taken by Statista, over the time
period of January 22 to March 12, 2020. Additional sources are the World Health Organization (WHO),
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Air Transport
Association (IATA), etc.

4.2 Trend Analysis

In the proposed section, it was mentioned how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected the globe in the form
of Gross Domestic Products, Travel and Tourism Industry and High Tech Products. While only three
economic sectors were listed, there may be multiple analyses to a given sector. In order to analyze the
effect of COVID-19, the research will be relying on several graphs. Based on the datasets, a plot may be
generated to show the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 worldwide along with a heat map to
depict the locations that have been affected the most. To review the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, certain
plot graphs depicting real GDP growth, monetary global GDP loss and percentage change in GDP due to
the outbreak may be shown. To depict the impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry, graphs
depicting global travel and tourism revenue in 2019 and the impact of the pandemic for 2020, revenue of
the travel and tourism industry in 2019 and the projected impact of the pandemic in 2020, by world region
and travel and tourism industry revenue in selected countries, may be shown. The impact of COVID-19
spread on the aviation industry has also been considered. Finally, plots have been generated to show how
global high-tech product shipments are impacted by the outbreak.

5. Results and Findings

In this section, some graph plots based on data from the multiple datasets used, have been generated. Based
on the graphs several observations can be made.
5.1 ​Number of cumulative cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) worldwide from January 22 to March
12, 2020, by day

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 Fig 1. ​Plot showing the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 worldwide

As is evident, the above graph (​Fig.1​) shows the number of COVID-19 cases over a time period of January
22, 2020, to March 12, 2020. Ever since its identification, the number of COVID-19 cases has increased
significantly. Most than a million people have been affected.

5.2 ​Number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases worldwide as of March 11, 2020, by country
with a heat map

Fig 2. ​Heat map of the world depicting COVID-19 outbreak

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The above graph (​Fig. 2​) is a heat map showing the locations of the COVID-19 outage. The intensity is determined
by the color of the points. While yellow depicts low intensity, red depicts high intensity, therefore a higher number
of COVID-19 cases. It can be observed that the outbreak has spread across all the continents (except Antarctica).
Regions of Asia, Europe, and North America have several red dots manifesting higher intensity of the outbreak.

5.3 ​Forecasted global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth due to coronavirus from 2019 to 2021
(in percentage)

Fig 3.​ Graph depicting forecasted global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth due to COVID-19 outbreak

The above graph (​Fig.3​) depicts the forecasted global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in percentage due
to the COVID-19 outbreak. The global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.9 percent in 2019. It is
forecasted that COVID-19 will cause the global real GDP growth to decrease by 0.5 percent in 2020 compared to
the previous year, to 2.4 percent growth. The global real GDP growth is expected to increase in 2021.

5.4 ​Forecasted monetary global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss due to coronavirus from 2019 to
2021

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 Fig 4.​ Graph depicting forecasted monetary global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss due to
COVID-19 outbreak
The above graph (​Fig. 4​) depicts the forecasted monetary global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss due to the
COVID-19 outbreak. Three different scenarios have been used to make the forecast. The Best case scenario refers to
a two-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. The Moderate case scenario depicts a
three-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. The Worst case scenario depicts a
six-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. In the best-case scenario in 2020, which
is defined as a two-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand, the monetary loss of
global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to be about 76.7 billion U.S. dollars due to the coronavirus
(COVID-19) outbreak. In a worst-case scenario, defined as a six-month duration of travel bans, the global GDP is
predicted to lose about 346.98 billion U.S. dollars.

5.5 ​Forecasted percentage change in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to COVID-19 outbreak in
2020

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 Fig 5​. Graph depicting forecasted percentage global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to COVID-19 outbreak
The above graph (​Fig. 5​) depicts the forecasted percent change in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to the
COVID-19 outbreak. Three different scenarios have been used to make the forecast. The Best case scenario refers to
a two-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. The Moderate case scenario depicts a
three-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. The Worst case scenario depicts a
six-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. For the best-case scenario in 2020, the
global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to decrease by 0.09 percent due to the outbreak, while in a
worst-case scenario, the global GDP is predicted to decrease by 0.4 percent.

5.6 ​Global travel and tourism revenue in 2019 and impact of COVID-19 pandemic for 2020 forecast

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 Fig.6​ Graph depicting global travel and tourism revenue and the impact of COVID-19 outbreak

The above graph (​Fig. 6​) depicts the global travel and tourism revenue in 2019 and how the COVID-19 outbreak has
an impact on the same for 2020. The epidemic is believed to have a major impact on travel and tourism for at least
six months according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The decreased demand for flights is in
par with the reduced demand for leisure trips. From the graph, it can be observed that the global revenue for the
travel and tourism industry in 2020 is estimated to be around 568.6 billion U.S. dollars. It seems to have decreased
by 17 percent with respect to 2019. This is remarkably lower than the original 2020 forecast of around 712 billion
dollars.

5.7 ​Revenue of travel and tourism industry in 2019 and the projected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in
2020, by world region

Fig.7​ Graph depicting revenue of travel and tourism in 2019 and the projected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in
2020 by world region

The above graph (​Fig. 7​) depicts the revenue of travel and tourism in 2019 and the projected impact of the
COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 by the world region. As is evident from the heat map (​Fig. 2​) three of the continents
that have been most affected by the outbreak are North America, Europe, and Asia. There has been a decrease in the
revenue for all three continents due to the COVID-19 outbreak. For North America, the revenue has decreased by
9.4 %, while it has decreased by 16.18% for Europe. It is interesting to know that the first case was identified in
China (Asia) and the decrease in revenue for Asia is 27.08%.

5.8 ​Travel and Tourism industry revenue in selected countries in 2019 and the projected impact of
COVID-19 pandemic in 2020

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 Fig.8​ Graph depicting revenue of travel and tourism in 2019 and the projected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in
2020 for specific countries

The above graph (​Fig. 8​) depicts the revenue of travel and tourism in 2019 and the projected impact of COVID-19
for the same. In Section 3, it was discussed how the travel and tourism industry might be affected due to the
COVID-19 outbreak. Some specific countries taken into account are the United States, China, Germany, and Italy.
As is seen here, the decrease in revenue for the United States is almost 10%, while for Germany and Italy the
decrease is 10% and 24 % respectively. China seems to be affected the most with an expected 40% decrease in the
travel and tourism revenue.

5.9 ​Limited Spread impact scenario of COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry based on Passenger
Numbers

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 Fig. 9​ Graph showing limited spread impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry for the number of
passengers
The above graph (​Fig. 9​) depicts the limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry
based on the number of passengers. The countries taken into consideration are the ones that have 100 or
more confirmed COVID-19 cases. Revenue figures do not add up to the global total because of route
overlaps. An estimated 24 percent decline in the number of air passengers for Italy could be seen in this
graph. As was mentioned in the proposed section, the COVID-19 outbreak has led to the lockdown of Italy.
It is evident how the pandemic has affected the number of passengers flying across the globe. China, being
the country with the most number of confirmed cases has suffered a 23% decline in the number of air
passengers.

5.10 ​Limited Spread impact scenario of COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry based on Passenger
Revenue

Fig. 10 ​ Graph showing limited spread impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry for the passenger
revenue

The above graph (​Fig. 10​) depicts the limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry
based on the number of passengers. The countries taken into consideration are the ones that have 100 or
more confirmed COVID-19 cases. Revenue figures do not add up to the global total because of route
overlaps. China seems to have suffered the most in terms of passenger revenues at 22.2 billion US dollars
followed by the Asia Pacific (excluding China, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea) which seems to have
suffered a passenger revenue loss of 15.4 billion US dollars.

5.11 ​Extensive Spread impact scenario of COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry based on Passenger
Number

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 Fig. 11​ Graph showing extensive spread impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry for the number of
passengers
The above graph (​Fig. 11​) depicts the limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry
based on the number of passengers. The countries taken into consideration are the ones that have 100 or
more confirmed COVID-19 cases. Revenue figures do not add up to the global total because of route
overlaps. Group 2 (Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, the
United Kingdom) witnesses the worst decrease in the number of passengers at 24% followed by Group 1
(Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam) and Group 5 (Bahrain,
Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates) at 23 % each. Canada and the United States witness
a decline of 10% in the number of passengers while Asia Pacific (excluding other Asian countries
mentioned here), and the middle east (excluding Group 5 countries) witness a decrease of 9% due to the
COVID-19 outbreak.

5.12 ​Extensive Spread impact scenario of COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry based on Passenger
Revenue

Fig. 12​ Graph showing extensive spread impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry for passenger
revenue

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The above graph (​Fig. 12​) depicts the limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry
based on the number of passengers. The countries taken into consideration are the ones that have 100 or
more confirmed COVID-19 cases. Revenue figures do not add up to the global total because of route
overlaps. Group 1 (Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam) suffers
the maximum decrease in passenger revenue at 49.7 billion US dollars followed by Group 2 (Austria,
France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom) which
suffers a loss of 37.3 billion US dollars.

5.13 ​Forecast of global high-tech product shipment impacted by COVID-19 outbreak for the first quarter of
2020

Fig. 13​ Graph showing a comparison of forecasts for global high tech product shipment impacted by
COVID-19 outbreak
The above graph (​Fig. 13​) depicts a forecast of global high-tech product shipment impacted by the
COVID-19 outbreak for the first quarter of 2020. The outbreak of COVID-19 is expected to influence the
production and shipment of key technology products in the first quarter of 2020. As is evident there is a
decrease in the shipment of all the global high tech products considered. The shipment of smartphones and
video game consoles is expected to decline significantly by 10%. Televisions and Notebooks may witness a
decline, at 4.5% and 12% respectively. Almost a 16% decline is seen for smartwatches due to the
COVID-19 outbreak.

As suggested in the proposed work section, three economic sectors that may be impacted by the COVID-19
outbreak have been highlighted, i.e. Gross Domestic Product, Travel and Tourism Industry and High Tech
Products shipment. Several graphs were presented to highlight how the COVID-19 outbreak has managed
to travel across the globe and do more than just infect people. As is evident all the economic sectors taken
into consideration have suffered due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

A comparative analysis of some existing works on COVID-19 has been presented to justify the proposed
work. The comparative analysis is as follows (​Table 2​)

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 Table 2: ​Comparative analysis of our proposed work with existing works
Year and Author Research Parameter/ Results
Methodology

(Stoecklin et al, 2020) Study on the first cases A French Surveillance A very limited number
of coronavirus system was considered of patients considered
(COVID-19 in France to analyze the cases. A for analysis (three). The
standardized time frame is too
limited (January 10,
investigation form
2020, to January 14,
collecting 2020).
socio-demographic
information, clinical
details and history of
exposure was taken into
account.

(Li et al, 2020) Study on the Early Analyzed detailed Limited dataset (425
Transmission Dynamics epidemiologic confirmed cases)
of COVID-2019 information collected Limited time period
during field (December 10, 2020, to
investigations, January 04, 2020)
including exposure Several false alarms
history, timelines of regarding symptoms of
events, and close pneumonia.
contact identification.
Places that were visited
by the patients recently
were also investigated.

Chinnazi et al, 2020 Research on the effect Global metapopulation Cases have been listed
of travel restrictions on disease transmission from 23 January 2020,
the spread of the mode so it is possible that a
COVID-19 outbreak. lot of Chinese cities
might have already
been infected by then.
The research takes into
account travel
restrictions to and fro
Mainland China, while
COVID-19 is a global
pandemic

Qi et. al, 2020 Large scale survey of Self-reporting While the research is a
the psychological questionnaire and large scale survey, due
distress among Chinese several questions to the lack of empirical
people due to the related to demographic data (trends and
COVID-19 epidemic data (ie, province, graphs), it is difficult to
gender, age, education, anticipate the overall
and occupation), results. Further, the
frequency of anxiety, study was restricted to

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 depression, specific only China and has data
phobias, cognitive up to 10 February 2020.
change, avoidance and
compulsive behavior,
physical symptoms, and
loss of social
functioning in the past
week.

Gallego et. al, 2020 Implications of Anticipating the The study does not
COVID-19 on Tokyo number of people who feature any graph plots
2020 Summer Olympic will be attending the or trends (empirical
Games event, study or experimental
The location from analysis)
Yokohama port to the
venues of the game

Sun et. al, 2020 Study on COVID-19 Epidemiological The study does not take
based on current characteristics, into account any
evidence mechanism, symptoms, empirical study or
diagnosis prevention, experimental analysis.
treatment

Proposed Work, 2020 Survey on some Global Gross Domestic Presented the outbreak
effects of COVID-19 Product, Travel and of COVID-19 across
outbreak Tourism Industry, High the globe using graph
Tech Products shipment plots and heat maps.
Justified the effect of
COVID-19 on Gross
Domestic Product,
Travel and Tourism
Industry, High Tech
Products shipment
empirically, through
graphs.

6. Conclusion and Future Work

The novel coronavirus or the COVID-19, which was first identified in Wuhan, China took only a couple of
months to be declared an epidemic and was soon labeled as a pandemic after that. It has affected more than
a million people over the world and the number of cases keeps on rising. The effects of the outbreak are not
limited to this but are all seen in other spheres of life. Thus it has the potential to cause global effects. In
this paper, three economic spheres have been identified i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Travel and
Tourism Industry, High Tech Products shipment and COVID-19 outbreak is believed to have an impact on
all three spheres. Using sufficient survey data, it has been justified how the COVID-19 outbreak has
affected all these spheres, by plotting multiple graphs. Such outbreaks are sudden and may affect the globe
sooner than anticipated. This study would be beneficial to industries and researchers to prepare better for
such a global crisis and would assist them in contemplating specific scenarios in case of an epidemic or
pandemic in the future.

19
The global effects do not end here. Due to globalization several industries are interconnected and
interdependent. In the future, it would be interesting to observe the effect of COVID-19 on more such
industries with an updated dataset.

Compliance with Ethical Standards

Funding: ​This research received no external funding.

Acknowledgments: ​The authors would like to thank the Editor-in-Chief and the anonymous reviewers for
their valuable comments and suggestions.
Conflicts of Interest​: There are no conflicts of interest. This research does not involve any human or
animal participation.

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