Tools of Critical Thinking METATHOUGHTS FOR PSYCHOLOGYFeiler bt his on, once ‘Wart en ie Lang oe 6479580, (aan esos Intent cort ‘nnmoelnd oct Foy Lp. 20 18) sey Dig cope © 97 ley Une mic esa aks sf aan Hose opi 2010 by Wein es, Ine [Sabi SN Sr s776620 Argo prt hs bo aye pon re ea pt ent ar aa tt ern in ee ala ine nthe United States of Ameren Critical Acclaim for Tools of Critical Thinking ler ae comin eo ih Sha exes ith hoa SSL of So kt Se trl acer rts hing dec, en tg ene Fat atin god ome donee” ‘ata ten, ies ings aria coed tevin ee sd ie ing ote en pg a a mange pce stg) Se ‘Sly ee ee ln na oh Rr ily rl oni i ay {psy ating taabaaed swaps un king them aces, er Sey nee aoa a “Doe Le ci ae king iimpesinin , roves nile wisps ‘Refer nt crs in poco sly commode ‘ein could ety ve pod owes Busig an aay sie eater rer ih Ses a. ‘lier alle el eh gad mie fest nd tel Sut erate “sanyo tp ao prog Reeirgae eerie ana Saat arnes SSS ee eat Aone Pen, Uist of aie apast, present, and freKN Contents Feremed by Thomas Sass i Pree = Inodion by Robert Case we ‘GPa One Concepalzing Phenomenn The Balin Bt of Language To Dee so Prescite 3 ‘he Rin Err Comping Ape an xine ' Sake Lees Design “he Sanyo Pye nd Pye ens “ “The Nil Fllgy a aloo Ressorng Tonane Something io Ep a Dit Dies Variables and onus Vals: Bk aed White or hades of Gry? a Concer he Opps To Cons so Deine » The Solari igus Parlor: ‘APhnamens Are Bath Sar and Diet * “The Nausicaa: Maing he Ue econ" a “Sond? 9 ‘Te mum Eke “One SiefieAIF Reset Ltepetatont 57coments x ‘Than Tews Eaanng Phenomens s ‘Gas Fives Osher lass and Fallacies n Thinking 129 X Cameo Dns Not ae Cason: Conn "Whi “Wy” 68 yg, BM Metra FerndMietCanpain 1) g Xl kstna Cas qv, the ality Ba The Perv Foe of od res am Gt, Hey pi nd eC 2 hig, XR Theiler To Undead ior Neyo t 28 Ti. Wolpe Chun: Nox “EO Be BA 7 RL eee fat: tA Case fe Ce Eg 8 Part Sins Concaiona a EV. Malle Pao Casas oem Caen Sime ct Oban Se Cones _____ait {0X Bey Deoson 4 Te O Tae Suck Pes and Mwy 218 J Pat Tie: Common Minatbtins 35 pga Cacig Met Meng as XV, Theta Attin or eat Somaya Te a ‘Weng be np Er ec % liso vases eaagey ota 4 X0LThelnaion Como Fal Tt ol of i ed EN tc bee ee te Ce 1 Ferre ateln Dore w® Fim. The Cepia Flay ‘een: The pers osm Claes “he es Dna Powe tet 2 icteuaobecouacong naenaly a aia Fats Psst Una as coy Themen bobs hs -epen:Case be poste Mezoagt VD 24 12K The Spc penn Flay: ype Sl Bano Sees Oeon8) 255 stata es Do Nees xray Cass 6 gp Set Aars Cape ures 26 hasay mm ‘art For: Invstgting Phenomena 18 oe 7 XX Deluca nice Resning TreMetaletiacae 135 eure = Suter 2s 21201. Rect To Oe ia ° “xs. Tesehlig Pps When xpos CteReiy 17 14 34 The Aan Be vine Wet hgh hom Core me as TRLW. Theo ie YS nd On Win eStaSek 10 ; Q.SXV. Thetelel Pesce ic The als Aas Rie im Fic. The Hindi i: ding Winer afer he Race shed 181 =Wha fk for rales at en do rowthile Ady ile (188-1948) ‘niyo things arin, the Siverae ad human pi, and Tmnot sie abou efor “All Eien (1878-1955) es good oe openinde bor not so open hat your bins il ut ‘fe Nedoman (194-) —) Foreword Dav Ln fl ote ote of asi porpbe o tleved tackle the ter pm ei ode. The propel (ottepand humanist ain “Nadig haan en 1 oe" Leyak te readers fo nk above lg sn hat they do 0 er tenses Fe deve fom So of pcg neta hat testing he Ora dice ect perspective that ener he ‘ped poyehcposic mn," ae ee oe The fs of {isla om were solic porersUehink Opn ass femal (ne leet conta) gles" Wee ang pen powe. wer enedin the eng dino” "a berre,scpuingeinia thik crcl els assuming he tisk ong dango. the eet the dang depending ena te Tinker dee sxe ad wet ox hs thoght Sate twp er mason frsbarog hr bos wih thers, was conned i Il yee Aten uote. Ze hohe Rl for ing tt hing tne Dror ma eet fa to ee rane. Ol poe tn oh canary nth, wee ne sips to ae Wee ‘pod oles whe Ares nk sa bye Path ‘odie Tet dele cues hat at way is secu, we haf tte ree ec So geal nihin eh Ng “Eber you tk” be ‘avr el aes bre tik rou a ak omer En you pret Tel Gacy your nr wey lor and meriae you Unt ot ‘nil the sk noe pol eo sbse iking ota. ‘ther Acar ola“ se hop ony js i naa is, ad pec nl ise le hough Ad aad Aes Hl ef cor ae roan oe en ne tig tonne ean ran Undenindg with wach ee ae, tur we clean nd eft orci oink ere Aboot the mater Keeper ads of ne expan eqs le ng wc wc, oily sel he menace 0 "eleve yak. Levys se entns ein wih singly and canes wih ior te na Tigi deve of poets ed che pl rai poyloy tthe reno demeaning of Otero fin dagen deforma Te ee esr and competing te ‘cute toys a meta eallprofesnae ak wch relies alse Pssst vo: Man vy ce or nT et As igty sd ts alway kee ge” syrct Ne ek Preface anion aro te wae anew, brea, Coos) Oe et “4 ‘hinkinone ofthe moet ea fa human charter. Thing ‘san pee compen ons ying tat we do. We se 100 lst, pei a sonal de worl und weer a es pln or deapest ars athe ry ane aguage In ete neal psionic ay amu epsenr at empl dee hing res Sweetin about hig el? Tobe sure, me may fr on scent fe thought eo wa ek Bat a shut he ‘ty men Or ole hk Or ny we I ther ds, ‘hen Go me ject hing cess cil malas? "Racor aly profes cite hbking pray the st i cones ef easing oc ingore tan my memerargSe inom ect Thoupou oar sense careers, we are cml? red wit eu peng Sends andere atsset tice “hk ctaly= Howes your econ eerie i he hat of mas ter epee on ore hag ew ti ete roel yo As eat ltigh you may have cane cai fe ‘feral inking ou ate neki ito dso sen steps ar ths fk, he xpress parpan ih Inpro your kings, oath ou think etal. ip you tik ‘Howe tintng-in 8 eto pomete mtn. Mahima 2 ‘og osteo ays cacti he oon waa fa ‘Smeal hatoned yon tence ete ate es sl tar tly goupol il tack esa gh alee The hag eto tg ay, Bes hu wp). Inq an robin Scing nhs ay they ste ptt an i as en pane ete sl amp yep ey rat tris Sone. Tar the purposes ft bok ach Methought i sae eialy fhe henry indo of cnenpory ec cla nd oni {a pscole Kap mind however ht ese eo pees ‘Smsen the caine of ay sec pian cafe uo ine dese tay el, gig os peo, boy an ora, ese a eet oi pa. en © Acknowledgments ‘This book—in tthe aig and esd eto mas ver ewe ve eatin the aig refects + dsaion and ses of my dec {ting in soc pelo, ny eneaore i comcing theta and piel oelogil esc, my etre in cna paelogy ot + ‘heap abt cen in pyeheapy my wrk cna super = aca ny ris ach roe nt ‘Seeron ifearound an within me Py {Seer pen who i ination or satel, cme to he ‘cea, despa, sad aston of hese pipe. ave mie exty le teupow the book ive eat whee die by evi com phen teference tations for cers words as, and research those Inmet gid oda vce when ae teen umble to oste a patsar sure tale ny spologes For eile ‘inal ell examples Uae tae pet ae to pote he any any re perions cons wel sherpa) ibe. ake thi opr to expe: my ade to my cadence a ‘he University of Cana at Los Angee fr tt gine insights. wi- dean spot am pay tel to Bary Calis, Shelly Tyo, rie a ad ely, ei Ae Ppa, Alex Clow, Bera Raven, Cosine DandlShte Hara Ge names Clean “Aihough any aor hve renin my king doe wha eas ato beeen eale i al lee Tomas Sas RD, Lag Pol Mes He Eyed, Vitor Pa Kurt Lina Jo Fle nd em te ee of sy ad steve fe) Alri, Ca agin Alana Haram, Sasol Inept f= erent [Ext wat rv by he ght bur nd wd Cary Lats, Leh aa Groening itu, eee Brace Ee Kapln, eoge Car Tue Mason ad ies Teer ny tanks aprciin oy eed cles seer of sam also tpn 0 be or eet fends tela Dew Ea, Ee ‘Hit nde ad Wn Lat The sume es oome U9 earest end rasy of what wish were clears, epi Van ‘Nts Desc tc Jy Sr goede sd esp slo go 9 Cao Tne Bae, To Greig, Ezeh Lats, Di Mer, en ep, Lin Ret Nauteen Oar Cael as, Rober Cason, ny Beet Rab te Snbey Bt fam Mary Ae, Saran Siw i Sth Ken Freace cy Kae hel Shermer, card Griggs Sere Usman, Los sino, Bul Lfiee, Di Mabon. Jay Fal Kh Bl redeh Water ry Coline, Debor a, Haboe, ais sic Sar. Kir Mater Jeon, one Wet ary Laon Janes ac, Cares ama andy Wolpe, "Repel at a psionic to eperdie Uae an ist Son winch aon od 0 based ed hee (he onset ‘Sibel tight mean of ene Fedo a suppor. My att ‘par ut on tthe amniscon and val bur aso eee ely ‘Penn’ Crane Sebo of Edson ant Pca nd tn a eso ate rove me wih yeu of naan and echig Icatone In prs Tara ey Elbe Lagoon, Miele N20 ‘Mgt Mie, Lyne Wee, ne felipe Moraes Kak, Kn ios ‘Ane Vreven eda an ante cs fc as tan he ey hes ny peice re ae Hope Testing ne more sbns he bua xpi bush ple The oa fie pss satan Prem, pres Don aso is couse spa wer My hak so tN Rowe (uae, Die ee py Ray hy (peste), Dee Uso ie esony) Tre Car Garang mang) an Wes fan foo sa), fone Highonth (permis) at espa al Forte eine wat on he vet dei kot A Cate al eT Shama Desig oo "My des pore goes tomy mediate an ended aay sp ‘Si alee menuemen of ance weigh vl, moon of pete Tae nee cay thr ay lw ay pang era set, ‘ot dancsan ade xref guy. mate ode. “he pba n en canine a ero aes Spec caw hee tofeny to hotnize flies th, oe aca Site cnn! oy ominous Shenomens (pel pochloge! ones) ae eer presume to Jeti fen ire en ay cn as ah {sling sey neat Comer eter ot Ad pe) the ‘hol mnie ces ewer contac ve ae mee st Ect el meses esos ply © “he flown se seve examples of conan pycdopla varies sha quran asunder teed rf they were, ke nm ahcrma cus carted erally neta es? censcovs-vcesous Intowe-ete ‘onto tonne deedens apes tse thepe eteerae itre teasenomeat ‘oily os ene at inde oles Vpleretiting Dichotomous Vries ad Coninous Vacs 27 coms yh ctu are Exercise 51 ‘he flowing exes wil ge you some pace at dererining és tn cours pean For ex ef the es tel ‘hen tte doo pees (D) al hae a ‘Shams phenome ©, Amer penn pea 5) ov me ule, paseo Seen a Biter ie oer opme of sowacag dap, — Seaatacat — lye ply ee caungesnie Sones Sesege Shatcacn cone eatery ot et, Sleep —Reeaieapeie Sere sco ay cone pay ee _—_ pacer Execmcaneare ‘Si gre — oil pcg te _ iano ‘Senge pet ona end28 Pat One: Coes eon eer Seam © Theoretical and Clinical Applications Intenso eel en he oct fe cot itu he feo mecha cing I cpaing ey ‘no Soopent tone weoews ef. Ke 07 Mac Be ran 91) heer he il bth we ys ese ‘eat eonar he mtr Acrhgts hese se, od ‘Repertreet nfe: ynpng Sepang” wd fot era tad compas by eg thn alles ‘a a, mante th sane ease medion, wey e "rea vein tons mae pel of lg ldecigmen . “is etch ao ar meru pions he rte pp cote A conto go of copie hy sponse ‘eipcens moth bac ore ein eng recs Ciao eet 80 he Bar 99, peso wh ng {ede ay ea o ea and mod sh chosing pa fen 2 so tins pero pect and “te tlre Improve ieee tomancon so fda deat cs ‘si day yer sn am ai Sco ‘sibs sch "ou tes ow aor Fp aig th Sais sow tat here patie oni betwee ‘utoratse’ os open foautntatan” “pemi”) pre ‘ay compet cen aud, 188, si Lol, Mla & ‘Moa 1996 Coens 1957s eee, howe play xe(65 Fae Two Eening Penner anal in aru Tas se ry tiv reg he connie ‘ed Wes inmate he pny hs ther ‘aries sudo gh secon sn apy meagan ‘eo ges so igh be spose fa edcing sal compte. zane 6 Most erin adic started om jens hs thee eve colon beeen her se dhe pros rasa Ba ‘oreo dos nt prove that aa ie ses scsequert Hea Wy aot Consider the et tt aly al eran as real stated nil No win Gr ths coreleton "poe"? Tat ling al ip Cone ao the crlatons beeen pede oes amass medi hones nd men ies, ees nd tein wing en re any and wee benef, poor ges Sel ed eal bes tn al ef these ose and cours mre), evase ocd canon sel ‘leon cnelaton Fart when acelin serve, beste a Sera plate pes nd decors of ston, Exercise 10-1: Exploring Correlation and Causation eieou sone rate ponte si wy ste cfs fred ripe pe cn oad henson ade empl “Eesngnt” an ptimism ape he epi Gave) coneltl Ley 98) ht pce wi te “evening per fen Be more pesmi than ring pes” Why raph ee er 2 dlaaigsen ny casein 3 in el gan ay aah 4 Asi moe bin ot mi ae 1 Sapane you rel an aie eon «nga cretion exe liony and spec (at slew es gout ‘Sere depend) Wha tral acu fr thers ae 2 Many sci aleve ta the mos efit wa 0 cat or der ages lc diegh thease of pniseen, coin he Gath pen X.coveton Ds Nac Prove Cason 68 sy The eponiere fresh evide,bwee shows psn cone or betnen mdr sane mmr of ecto abe han he ‘ue osprey Sexes een ce Sepa Eb, fae 187, Astin conan eal, ow ges? lune 3.4 pychotapt epor tha, “Bore te pater stared secng ‘meri ee war tonnes Se bes en nese wih ower be has compet cared aroun” Wy? owe 4A ppchoteapi epot “When the set wa sige fortes he tg ges Bice be emia reser, es ely oes Wy? Superstitions, Magical Thinking, and the Contiguity-Causation Error Lats thon ering pion i con 2 pu ay tang Ci er mse Teche lng ts nso tc an ta Sn sng en 22h Shera: Gnd on ron ga ean sic pop egy set enter oe sup saree sh sno Slew oto Ia Kelso cher pees aly fl ici ey ec conguy sl Ree a rot apna pt on of ome Svs le sn ys of nce ok Ean wine pp neat bce petPu Two: Expiring Poon Har Sack sutra (1850 lero this frm iking athe pte sa of eps. Pats cig en mayb ena nd tage iinet erm a ce oe in oe ‘uly ket pesos ead on pats earn fc Ble fda ech er’ sve lo» pu adhe en se ‘im a rg nec sc a ny sop ts sper anor re panes Sey 2 pir ia bon niga t he eee Ic bewee she as "ik the Cantata ror cate tt e ee le tt nsx athe ce orca ek 7A est xan Ho, coe ay pee us wth scctaeand een eerie rperdng wha cara ‘cnt dome he es, Ee emutanes whens coelion aagy inp casio ener {tl despot po cao, oe Notes si eu I aie an ine ie vee tm Glossary Terms “The floving ers (asin) rte in the los ‘bor a ‘reson cron = ou ie Sta ip tev ies ‘iat ‘teton Pr eoring cue Bre Sree reion Sirlgey-cinaion Foe copy ‘nee Focpy ‘cen ae oder cal ‘potion sae we tego Sop ‘ing Chapter 1 XI. Bidirectional Causation ‘Causal Loops, Healthy Spirals, and Vicious Cycles “emcee atin sah be! eis? a a ul eee eth “ i |Pi Two: Eaplning Phin Ati vocal nd tik cs elon ie nd (re Aas Eve 8), Suny ya oa! en (Sts Ee ot et bees Bef) ie il a ‘leg nl hoes Tae rentip ee ses ‘Sp eet oor ses era eyes lhe ses ea" yeeur i ie dot. oe heh ‘ete Barc) . Asai pie sto ee edt el go teosinpeoer oo ti Se Spot seer song Same oe Wi ne Ind wb ee” as Race Bh Minder 8 lan io 90 en wed abe ‘teen tn nay eno ay his iad enhce “eae mtr empl ead a tins een sep ran aching an Yale i es ‘Sim pee om BUT ged ae ye ‘5t3 er pean ant itn ce am eos sive belies a Cr aot bea tative yg ia ‘en unnts aera psc Ninh aed cin ‘tren cect and chr gen ie fw Ath so nego oy nr) at £ ore ‘inl esplanaton sao tata nro EERIE sr 121 Muli caneion othe meen the detent of mepo (Sueeted anaes Eva sper inappeni 5) Nowy plang whan: Doesnt may be seen ascmusdy 6 contin ot, lng et cdo ua lesan ie ere sendin ng nd eed hep ok nui ie, nf beche aa veer. cas aa "A ater eam ae causes geese? Taking ino econ tbe neces ‘mode a le Caston sgesion peas Be oe tose cc © alae igh estan an sopesed aged ow waste, a the a ‘enact of geese boas and We we of eee pusher lia le olla eft (iach & Went 986) as a Exercise Ie ‘As a eri, conser the mule demons of ewig. be soe fl its many pore cer Jou ean ink Guaseted owes spe apens 5)80° Puc Two: apaningPheome How igh ou pur ds Meatought ito det practice? Fs, seeming xl hy err t,t a our eh 0 08 Se nent ee mp ie can a wn tna ope thecal erm fete” sep nomen ly replacing eth with ad For example he tener, ‘Pra sce yee praceof hase becomes “rg I cause yeh isnane elev” end play eng te aes ‘ell. Then ask yeusl Iss pew felon scart and se stats, you weve lo ha is ‘esa dhs ne Per, 1968) alo end thi rine econ mono yp fete ges pocoteait oak Mo he de Felice te word ur Wind foe noun ke yt bt 1 wate ‘ng vepcd wt ke ela wan fo change ey tng Sone une ob wh pope rola with ey big sone sa ‘eo 0 be with peop tne my hr bat ae Ses he es ‘ited a Tae ay othe apse dese cy” Wht se ae ‘ee ths therapet technghe? Bt Sen asses hry eas to egenenigsleig ad "dsonelg” prs foes The wet ‘holga aldose in coma, ad agri, to tering Se ‘he iad ens of wolenes—In hae ecole eh © Advanced Applications of Multiple Causation: Linear and Nonlinear Combinations In te (rave) cabinatn, the eect en eeeiay be ‘ae by ust one of mol cases In oer wads, ach ese eine epee hee. Ths a lea conn ees ae Ing tenes eo ony two vaableroe cue ae fc Coie, ‘an lust the ce of dress dessbed above. Albagh pe ‘io inves mul determin echcrse soe maybe set so rate the ee. Thos pression apes oe dc to nea esa ‘hon ofa? To reese ts cence gtr (here Cy Cy ‘esas eel When C Cy 4 et yo ne ‘Senet race The same pine he ue, epee the mbes ‘fens Ts when cyt Cy Ch G49 tweeted oo yore Cy inp te ima (mali aati by cnr, the it tte ened hot mcs tating in untae ses ‘ther word mnie cman ogres mig een ou ‘herd varie. Ths, where) = pier Cy ho Cee proce ‘he fanaa ambien ech tr ay a si sprue th eer The patton fa erain Go me Fenste the case fact eros) I by define x on eee 2X, Molle Casa Maple Catenin Combiinn i im a itn eee Fiore 12.2_tingr drone canes of ona omdion ae uel get atone fre bays moxraon > pesmanse Peron 1 peron 2 armen person = pon 2+ ng ‘noch of hse online evans, er ase nes capa rate Ing th este hey nt tc ah eo he eit ae ‘eae Glossary Terms ‘Theftlorng ems arson) ted inthe lose ‘fe cotion eee ase fimo foncee Set ‘dren cum fiat82 Paw: Expo Penomens uaton ‘paulhey free na Som Chapter 13 XIII. Degrees of Causation Not All Causes Are Created Equal ‘a npr ron ey an Som‘Pa Te: sgn Fees Tr mny ston, it may be oe sng tak he questo, "I this a ‘sue ro As dust nMeathough XL ell may bean say isthe vet of mali can. And tse cat ae TRO tory he deg which hey arrose i rig eer eer we oe cue may be mre fae then ster oes eae ‘ha se wih or weigh ot espns he over ads tou cnees ning ts ct a use apron rele issomeo a -rncse "Aran craple man waht op ct one morn, ul nothe taarom, sd whe busing hit sow tote He ces tly amayed Bete ees or we a ot aa hough mony sage moun, Go ewe ower es dwt fet och the Nowe fe Hoaly ares te or se Ashes ino hs fan oss on i ha: hs eg of a2 Sto heck he ss owe Th, whe he invent el 9 pena ‘es he sud ee al ona shes ps congue feat ad ‘Hector ‘Wat ctl he ms behav? Why aac son? Twang degees pea allo ese cents an mae tro) ee ety ‘eta ghia ee emp cA evs ay he Been anon the ee sm ha he he ‘Stnts Bde Bat can we carp le oy oat etal ‘ning af oti “his Meubles ecto cnc petnal—as wel as logy For once roman Hey to be owed te ‘ont deere uh soos ai fer bye ig In ha fr eg erage cl, who become aed Sire Bt tats eo ay nome ew esa Selaer sci. gan imate of ee. Stati ese that you nse al te igh hough con af the cy tht yor Know fal we onal geo kad oe our, ont you ese te ath ou ae ated y= pn ot hap Where des the egret be hed ee? Wit gcson yar alan Bt wht Se pu? Bed oe see Ine f seine wd be lg an ae oan ae be shite oeaynsby x your re Sal's propre i mire EL Des of Cason 85 6190+ 6490 + G2 91 =) na codinaton Go 64719 (29) fone ambition Fie 1-1_Depes of casa. Exercise 13-1 ‘ogi you some pace a ping hs etatoupt, the along serie Fis sect Sion aing lle caso. ether fo ‘Sample in hs ook oer our owe eon expen, ou may ch ‘Gente or etal te fos at cunt our decon oe of ‘roman telah efor jou chace of clea. ore oar Set trod Sac il ple hl ators at eel be otarng oe ‘ice Thin rank oder te fare in toms of hermit oe ft outome,Fourh amin (or the pute fis ears) th ‘ager hy sa OD fhe ee, gn elie We in the em Taran, upon tht ou rine in anajing the tis he area to our le monde omit a ep a lied ate your pnts might ak omething th th 6 Cau sawie mania _*) 6, C20 eso ft nas 6 C8 tae ctinati nithccmmte | AO aay bly it it DEB) Bi gmat (8)Par Tw: Egg Fhe hnyacoule mere ca yourown ecw + ‘Wat the ec ob ad ft i Metathog? Ft, remem ber that ast nc sls dktrious vee, sal ser 5“ lsted aston a lo coon th eed oe ‘kre, maga, weg Gee Neathoogh , Dillrnting Dic. ‘nous Vales ad Contaoas Vales) -Ne ant to sie the Sorximate proprio th x hore oe othe Stn, heping nin hace all cuss ee ly dbo automata dep Ire, ru oot cases sey Because hey fess st eg hr. ‘fre aching yor loner he ae cntbton fal pos Notes 1 1 ep ig ue he ce a of i 2 Sadli el s a Giessary Terms ‘Thefooving ens yao ae defied ia he seer oo “Somnus vate seston ‘reson Sie ‘cco able ie IL Dares of Cason soiag ‘Shen seaheChapter 14 XIV. Multiple Pathways of Causation Different Causes, Same Effect tying essing pte i on i Any ato te nd ew. ch Rael ZIV.Malngle Pawar Cason 8 A outer of ctieren neces coon may lead othe same cao. fu another wy thse su may ping em leet cues, To ak on ‘Bugle te arta eae amt ocean lel ioe ay ‘iy be costal erent fom the fps ta sea her to Doe Ethic stutber aay ot fort tne ter tha cae 4 ater (0 eae an eal hd aly ner words, there re me ots sepatnvaato sean Tie ne some Rr Metts of tts Menage aagher ay be pode by 2 na Sere inepene pay, sacha Sassen cr pc eg ‘aye maybe cad npn by ‘tne oy fusion, ate ‘Sipe cliderenda a ‘Staporetoonons spor ona ae gta ection aye bought Ste Cont toe Bou by art psa SIMON, gre 1-1 Malle ‘sense tree imap, sex plway of cunt fase mgeston of Vag, ato. soe aphasia ieee ‘ee tn a a of he REM sp ck Sangd ya ap om he nok All splat of hic Meatbougt ines ening ad exaiig the toga aos pes ef epchopatolgy. Depressi (ef xe tay be edie yarns nen peso pat hog ingestion of gs (reserpine mero, bahia) +H eqetsion) thro om das (amperines coring) + (peso) amin debencee “pale snes amine deen) + preston) gma ies (yeti, moana) +, (pein) Gaenton 6 pensar) Deyeson soy be the ret of“pylopa” phenomena sch Gln = depen) yf 5 pension)90, Par Two Easing Phen Cylons + By eesicn) jis Sy epresian) Chobeesmes Se epson) ly bell ene (uch uel expectations) + Fy esi) ipa ene este yan rnigesenen!. +B Gores) Erercise Lh As un eecise,sey indeendent cul pas that cn prsce amy) gested responses pea appen ) tame ; eae + taney Gs Sessa eseean sain) @ + ease) 4 a ene) ea sey Coaeees > Se Camiey) % stam a + Flam) ‘he noo of mui cue pty spi ony o he gy of probes bat others esluon wll Spel, ca of Ii, eo hi of wn re Aejecson oy be sucess levine by poehopharsligy (gS Imeeion),cogakve phate, signed oye ene Sonal cate. th venation of ner, sce expres ne {nepeensreanape ing cei sa popes Arey. be eee by» suber pathy, ng oy choparmnnogy eg. ena), ogee ihe athe, bra they (og elton ing eset dese ‘Steam Implosion, ot fois), sea acton,hypons meon, ‘edtck = aang ino mpg sn emg rps st ‘tons, ah ‘XV Maple PabnaysofCason 9 ‘he morale Meh? Ft eve sun ht snl ome smut bee estat nar cases Sec wen eon evens oe: ‘St, sna on the loko frame utes oe eee “Theta fll Poy ef Cause serge with he lenge Sooaaeteis prcssemm | Trung eter pele est cn eget tht thee event “nga aS crema ees aca ee RT nec tmen aia aa Satie feoncacnraaaee enna i es er eto meee Sagan 9 for newer gave proach ce sme pi Glossary Terms “hefilowing ems (rans) ar define oway rte ‘itera an pectstion a Sreence fone aoe = ‘epost gre phenom ‘Spoke py bys SSoloebiaentshespy peal Sept chops Scie oehoien See ene Seloey omyChapter 15 XV. The Fundamental Attribution Error Underestimating the Impact of External Influences Nosip indepen ane sie ih ee ose es a yea bet Nunc StlPu Thee: Conon Mistibions Ho do we exo be ass of people's behav? We ay ate thes eer ther peal ooh Gums Pesce ‘ueamenfarenes teal unmitigated oe tsp cremaanc sarong ney tee rae oe ere ee seta i cease nthe dee so which they ae ep fr casing & pesos sons Seer eis somone =a cas care eeteres Soe eeemen ree Eyassenter st saree Sree rebar cusiomencrl fe ccd afs eit a Co cateaere catia Eons sisson an copa tems ttsea SS Se aid Se ey ace naeceec ete Siping eucee onscreen eter apr th behave eng mas iy ay ot empha ce icici ata fnap Seaeieate sia tecarmntcne ica ee eat Seieaecenmtaguemerme siciosie avout guarge a ewe Speier “pale mote expe nie ht psn our fe frac ae ie: ug herve a he fone spats in bute wen he pos Rg het case ‘ds ee, ds sos king Gee ct wh ous 29. The Fundamental buiontsror 97 yh tine etn cpap et ec fe trcheateingemvtasms wera tag ee rere teseiaciere saat dale eta we 2h Sapir daul eas iene setae eter maemo seg actriettenw ae ey ‘etic rat glee cel eae amt here op wsericteaat tern neg et merited tan Soke rca Rar ice bent their rst dct anew to Seles nc et as ene ee eet cia aa eat chet iagieeate son ial rion chem nr ee Eee enacane ieee tcc a Toscano Spas ape ee ce ae Sees anaemia Setctals icy axes Seton ater i Ses See ils a wees wg ere Sch sanfeyscete serve 15 ‘The loving ite vo unde te eneoah, ety varepnal Pc tie slung su Og SaEPENesIor tape youl wing es nde Strcpond whe gle son ow rey san Free ee See roy tay mis ai oor Nous torte Onafistdae: :28 Pur Tiee Coomon Misttioaons Wit you pen Wik your bet fied Wiha sagen Wak our esc ther With yourteapt: With your os ae We your gos ese Win someane whole esi imps ——— With sme who whlch boand —— With someone wo psa aie Win someone whois physical crate In afoeign oty whee you do pete language When approached tomes il ‘When approach ya homes dl Wher apse ty pi fr When aproachdy esman When spread ya do eal: When approche ty prose 3 When apache by ep Hanyu hea appeased ys rou of apis When pees ya pop pane sorts Wen apse! bya ou o ple sng and dancing i rnge Ibs ong yu ened OM : XV. The Fundamental Acoiaa Eroe 98 tn loking ner yur ast, bse eile vit i yur resenses ister stato thei, Dec both You an the inal uestn se Bee and ell costar One fal pot dees teoton Cin yo detemin which ofthe repeses ets the ea ou? Node ae he quest in el iray ease witout so ak Ing enue ts cote the aon ‘one ofthe mes innigng apc of he Fut Atibon Eee te dark eon tomes rveued when ool stent el cm evi In oer rds. poe fren trom ations endo ‘Soiephusse te npn of sabes err le weresinatng he ‘put of hom cosine cancers, The rt Ao Or Bas aes Meer 1573 ree oe ener fr aber 0 oes {he impnancs of anu pees dein, befor ha person (he Naor) to overtone portage fe sation 9 pang to brown ce Tae an trample Kt ot stun tthe serio of he ln ne Inve deen! sve A bere a this ese the ian weld be Ince wo cpa theme’ blair par in ters of er aps tol charteraice hi pu fs a Any De nth oa erty Festarr”) The jae, cons yt explain er om ehaor papal net ofthe ccumstnces that she i experiencing (ie herp oa payne, an obnoxious ake me rerun ode won, te ere clan) veremphasins dap ‘hms exe heir en) oeepszs snail ce. What seems fr hee abana enon? Soil pegs are deed to plaster cpa hr nd mtn Copies fe 0 stom miata die fm ini a are rent nor psy rcs infomation. Beate of ur in Sine mitaons, meant spf oor inking ying is ‘Seal shot tat erm pees lfcaton mere ply ad ‘fice be scare). Foe tne, because we ar or xe of fevecing everything nau eonnen ou i aia aa 0 {iemoat promi onopmaee, oe “ejecting poral ‘Sieawumll fuer we rely heal ose afaraon fo lp ‘Spina he word rnd Unters weve peep ieee as ‘oi Kemalae Waa an nacre ce toutes ake & Ton, TBs 20 Tyr & Fae 1975). Spee we ate pene to ute the toot pecs bien nal he ost ule ml ‘ow dieser oe Fane Arbon Eee? When se exp beans or tenia cased aos insti on the sono Gh hor et svt At ned y the il peloge Fe Heer {Mss “Behave uch ior popes sods eel the {ES in ee mode he pro's bens donner sor person100 Pare Tre Common Miseruons Sahel a i ve ty Tha oe tans hi le sb pono satin ey “Te Aor Ober Bs cb epic uncon eee sae, That when we Be ou ates aed on se, fon our ston Beier evonent mo sale. os Weare ap teeta at more colnet. Thar in explaaing oo bay lee ae pone tusven sunona her than Sapte Traum the obmane foruoer onthe ae whieh lus fo postions scion by coo the Ae eae he nies Wh edo ‘Stra econ Minto Bas sees to asec tes that dere om at forte sour ee persed, uch aso dei freee, wero espe Senl pt tational lass serve th aetna Iw er analy shores) een ey doo a the pera (Sbring cnc o ange ‘Sree or most power yogi dees sow ne for cone ‘Wadut sense of peonal cnet oreo Ines, he Work Would es ing dw, we eng hi ce ‘One weiy impart wey stn opin even rnd by ‘Signing causal tueone ley 1967). We ou se wo uertan at ‘ov shal cone te prticabl ad thar, ona emetic pe ofl srbeton oer smth? appease choad ne sca (ere in Wester ‘Mic nee hs people can contol i dei ae he masters Cherie Arent sce pc coodnes Spousal arian, whe ‘Ueourges sean! tbs "iy? i dep onsen ove ht pepe te tthe my of mpd, bps or noe emt tat he bond Un cone We ‘rl retreat at poole mus hve power res elite [eral we ssnme tt ote ole hte ota oer ete ‘estrella el et {Grou poston ter an sstinal ten ‘Savona our ed nee sponta aterm oe fon tn an gay floes in eerste degee ‘Sono hat we scaly go ave bl resting the inp fee. ‘laos thee yn ou cone Pater aye ply do ae ‘nat oma oer Feed etents se fobele ta ed, Ne len mang depetood tbat proves v wth ah i of tle re prone, here, to exes ou pteapon fons. (ne ey wf angus thi moron ai ht pope wisat hse yes thf ty ou of cote aye el te ‘pons xii cleus tty sou be noe rt ‘to fon yea eto Bae peopl forthe bd gs at ha [XV The Panne Asibton Bor 101 oes soe? Mein eer (170 are hw eet sy cp snes tte He Fore we ae 2 ‘Sonesta inapat werd ahh oti evaned ‘dba pnhed is ele as conc tha op eh hey Coed dn whey ge Ina ut wrt hse whose mt Sit sucess ewe one wot mr deee i ses. Instances oj worl auton abound ‘Rapes at ave Det sdtey 1 nar putes rat ave had ning totem ‘ope with cancer the ogi a ese ‘role wth aie mc ae doe someting a8 ‘Rope in por counties must be sponse oe What appening them eon + Vf prion ast be git of omebing ety wel’ be peer + Sooner arate your karma wl a pth ou Wha goes rand cares ‘len wits opel ene, vera of Now Age mati” al ume binge te empl respons fo everyting that hes a ‘hen, beater snd mana ut ene” Rom spi sou even bby born wih AIDS pune oe ly remporle e “onan hry. Sar ene fople oak such stuns? Once api, we doi a au lot to reserve sro conto peo mee ‘Savong we amet th etl here ha ee ‘heal ayn ween an jst wo which uh evens ca eva rand ers epi vet ae unconstdib, they cu eaty happen ox yon ite welt presumably can aod caso ty behasng prope In eer ers, by sng postion tebe, ste hope to experince a greater suse ef contl ee 0 desig. athe, ones sures ou lence oe Speson of sce ‘sims if pl theses cps toon ph thre mo rol forest rol them aa hey roll dese) esearch fos th ani pepe forsee ele mes the vers soem tore rete se foe sree by the sol Fhe the fore se sees ofthe aiden, he get he Dame re Ie oss In aera conducted Hae Waste (1968, sees en one of sera vsns stra of ch Bp Wi a eltcen prone hl anten ace lle down none versa, the pope pagan ayer granny ope seghechgg atlFar Te Connon Mision id he os, bt strack enter bie, damage oa lot ca edi shop, ensuing he Sopp a eal ‘hi Satjee were then ated ose ne sel on te speed, "roo spree bane ns sped cig othe sone fhe Ts, when hedge vas nial ajc ded {2° ero te pri orth However wh people mere se iy jure, sues bleed thar te owner wet me epee or corn hi Pa sks cel cy apd rr oo ‘eps. Wave once ht mates part pe gait st ‘thea tel bron the seer oft someones fhe a” Hee ain, ‘an lo toss our nso ings tested th word und ‘ch che von is ign aposton wbone. woatcan we cone toute uname Ex? This pc be pout pee petal nt angle mo imporanelson ef rotary Socal tol Keeps lad where! Fou sen ‘espn sme eos Neer eesti the power fhe win Notes Se le ie een een ak a owe (ue, aa Mra, 308) ea cece Sf Se egcnne Ono north Glossary Terms “he owing ms or vrs ae deine inte oer: ‘At Ober Bas ‘dna ae egotne Mate tie is tenor ‘ermine te Smee we ‘soe coat “ipontion aus ene AT Fandanel Aten Ere ccplaaon (eel scson Jet eval ‘etal es noon Has ecpin fron eon aie frelon Saelgsa acolo ‘fandom ‘imios ‘hikingChapter 16 XVI. The Intervention- Causation Fallacy When the Cure Doesn't Prove the Cause ee eerie Seeeeseeecoee ass Soc ei yee ie cca St Sipe eorneteee Eg XVI the lena: Cason Fliey 105 Oe sity o may an event does not, yo, prove what cgay coset the een nr words, we camoc nce detemine an even case {Diy om tebe aeons 0» pra retin, AS eh he ‘Shon rou poem doe rent pins elo belie eh ‘re woud be tol pe othe nena Fla. T ae ah ‘lrocs amp, we ny be sl ge rena Ley stone bot (Bg an dcs oc soya paw orgy cased te rae ten ofthe ey soe eld ea he ment omit ncrn of i ee inahinkng the ste sg fay ivf coe athe oe ‘hs conan te «poke rons t are utente frowe at Use wat medal case Conte I may ee [Evriesposetomedeaton pot of are Nevers 2 Cowpl dogo ace sete a alleting te apts ‘Eoped mel Serer any poole nrngy enue hatte cde thse stave been ened arin ts oli aes, tes eprint ely by means fe flowing hypota ca ccna inte ft evap gine thay te rang oa fo ‘Swit any sou a pening exam nate of aie jou tat four male clint mb ou ash your rose 6 lu fr as Neh ecesons Wi ower fer ngening he esos yo plo 2d ols pour ene) has anise What ete your acy to ste? ‘buoy the lam Bu whut cand your ante 0 cet In eH [ce Can we slant tsi one respon Yo reson Fneon sate he ogy of our siya beng eto bloga Tine? OF aise ot “esata xe, key hat bythe nd excepto sues x, ye devon s sping headache Once ove done ap of ‘Pi our beaches Wha eed th each? The pe Bat ‘ioe termining the int case af Your bac, wha are wet an lu Te pou mere alr oe mda codon de toa Tc oa ‘ota your Bonde Uns amie so mre sea Suppose hat we obser somes wh a dhgnoe of sho who ipl sp of audory halon, farina baler we pve hm wre ors of fel anche vg, hs shar dma, hs uso he, dhe fer ses Did the medal rece hi spe Ye Ba ‘a eat vole eee fo median incorrect ‘hac haope rere, Bisopeldaase Using the ae ie lopca nde ove no amp, the seri.Pa Thre: Cen Mtoe ‘This isnot tare tnt emotions mena rer dot hae sag cal art weal be king hey di ft ona a ‘sume that al hugh, einen: percep, snd expences” ne fap “rn ae refered or mpped in sa ae, tte han tex etahoope I Maple eve of Desa). Bt rere or ‘eae i ote ame thing cue (ett X:Ctraon Ons Nt ‘Prre Cation), nl ior ate opr see log ‘apt. Prhr vn we were peste dhl ental sores te ced nbn pte dont ade We mse ef asi Ua throne eps to meeiog pode he ela Agi, peste response to mel eames aoe pa of el dsase ‘ones tis spol agin separ in we youre res sarin aera eset tary nes le ot eso a pst donor. Asume forte thet Ime ep feceng yer deg, yon ie anf instant et ian eter eprie for staae prea he semen Le, spo Yn i ‘Seer that fhe pein meaton i fac aang the hea ‘oe of ier magne ber kom a herein “Gm the ti af ths rmston hs oncon can you a? Tht jou re suey ose nd of il pon Dsus the pres trent lays proves our sto? Tt ou aa mat aes See, ‘eae ae ening yor mesene you Consent expec sas (Seo? Thr our epieto Be enient proves Ing inh ely io ig i jr pr ae end ie Incl. igor to epi mid ht though he min 12 len Sit mt my oe pf t,he ett ‘nies seston whee fll your empty tank wh guacine serve 9 ‘ores the qt of iy yur wont att Hare the terenton eiy ‘wok xb cause te poe. "he flowing xr sted, dure, wo rove you wt some pace at ering te rlontipor ck teeter ee one enn) an edn ae) VL The trvenonCastonFlley 107 Exercise 16-1 Fiat, rey decrees in which he case of prob an te dete dey fo on (nether ord, When ces Imerventon does inborn provie poof ely) 1 ease sees Nex, debe due tans in whch the cas fa rb came be ‘Empat then to el ema conta an eros cs Soe heli © Uncomfortable Truths “hice, repented inthe hl of ale 16 leis fons fenton nr it a oe oF upeting ba Wu, Fac. rete tog tes sins ier eendou nes of espe ‘Sinise cman te th nk tom topter the proce ‘Seong adnowedgg yng oreo, or othentie coming re ‘Pm for ll ey pal hy” pif” Foreunp you ye ii the nfl eto ht ou hve ees texsged oye itd end. Ort ean pepe yo ese ever (coger tha our age bt Ger Or tha ou realy do ve120 Piet The Connon Miss rug probe. reat samen date you ba teil ils, Or tat out caer is domed Or tau have finan sry your lp ‘rt ou wll ever sco wa ou abvay ted Oe ey oper ln and Sears ave smn ait Or a 0 os ae (ti elas ayo hogar mere In he comex af psec tl codon manent Kl when c ot recone tn peli th abt hemes. ih ‘he spond with esac defers le the on ‘Senet El) Ths ors fr tance when the hr prot ‘saber thc, rere ht evel ar pet (rdsurhing aps of the ces personaly. Fr expe te thers they be ene carcinogens rams roveing 2 Uhorsous hed oad as pares. Dest the nt hs interpre ‘on sl (or me sce, beau vl) thet teene prow tel trnened tenes exp y enon ree ‘eg eee al inte erm rl cng ts a © Uncomfortable Falsehoods ‘This condton reeset inthe fourth om of le 161, vase ing snaomietate nthe cf ne aeons Ese scaton Her, ‘et te ef enotona dior nseqace baring ben rong fy ee fer stece,ocmmitig unethical bebavors ce boring inmoral desis. Some speae eames whee wren seston oud ide stan chenting on an eam sn ple comming se Iressa enplsjess lnlrd pring val sermon ans tena on nena harming cers pose eng a. {htt hs her mata fer mols hr dager 3 Peery co eg estat to west. ‘On ve amon ate if his prces nye ones secs perso’ “eae in an eo Eetrcton aaa ise cage ute asain. This pense (a fe citrenaed rom ts heel polar opposite ae Meath VD, ‘uel ancl ifn ch nrc sdf respon oa ‘chet ae the rd row of ae TI) neter worse pe ‘acl cane trate” By conan the eo th. Iie deensenes he pero resting dine ean hrs nip, then wien it aes to andesantng cr nein aay of fesvnesy, We shud errs este. Specialy nen Con tens prove You to wexpnd defense, dnt same bard lly 9 ur elngr of Score ho Cros mst hele ets Snel mene pencay emetic ro ee pon he 1 oo Mast Be Tae Fllcy 21 Exercise 1-1 ‘sn ilsraan of his paooneon the flloing eee, Ts ‘tik a's pram wom ou epecly ie, depo oro ‘he wrong way" Thi shoul te someooe who mekes You fel parity tly, in seme wa tetened when thy ae sur ou, Now Awe dowmaloatponentsrseaiy tas acer manner Tos heap el the wo oud eer word, te a co Pe! of ses tht you fad f be lets, pupa © there tse Bea can ny ey ac any pee esis tes iy enamine the puro and aol wading this ees, vi Inve ated ny poo ee fo democsnte C2. Jas eo hear Ard ung (1948/1853), cach of ss pat ft ‘en esata ares repel, heatening iene ate ‘ee eacrnowie teary eee: Bec theyre diel eeon Inne const elem they ent to an uncon and arely onomowseplnet pesos? whi jug teed he shaw ache. "an th thal fen se i ou peony aco oF ceying me nto x abc, Meron, tes of eopng {Be Thndn n ng spa of neocons foe these owned ‘cert eter peop Tas ang hei when we el exe Aeron tad totes Person, we ebay se fespondig fo howe ery tuts te expe nd jos inoue. The prs of is eee iow sod be spattne fom Jungian perspective I ned > Ahcejocto youre shadow cya preteet egremipaomten sheet etdexpor wet anf he lng pr Sierra: theme reir deers mi ane122 Puc Tee Canon Misrtons aw ol le ents la pra atetiono o e tng ou ea youre rc oh ene tough ot eso 25 il arya one coo ts ye We Yu ay i opens nin a ei ef dectr Sowhat dos exe 18-1 mean? An what ost rv? From ane pe Spee jour eng f Scr coud teins Fovslng Ace that ots he aly of Jus shadow teary Aer ag ight argue these suet woul te ming you equ wes hey Seeing apc ofp ac ake aa ht dr dn Jou tow foe Furth mare dca yu experienc ttt ay ‘rth oa are topo sees of pn at Nox pceseih Reaping pl rath, by eines ingots een go i co ‘its Mettough HY. Nut Patrays of Caton) Ooty hee ea readies year ernst bs ‘fefeclng teste na bralr clo comea this onda rust ambled eset ocr stent gage teary of pei sty he ces cocoate een econ fr ck rata ‘ch aes, harpist shoul ema cops of th Bt tha le sa. [reston may be susting othe ent bec tt alo oy bed ‘ting because ei te “The tsk i epcil otlenate redo pecans who oo tlm eel tent xin an eso ch a ‘larch on een, earned fe mda ‘esse snd arp’ (ei sige) fr tana {rape hs fem yates carer eo bres exe ‘koe of et ees eis ey" Tas eet sy es ‘serely uncon hc hie Of ous, he aa ly 0 ‘ier er “dees and estan ater eee asa AN the mare eben she rete mere cone ey Become hat he aac eh! 3 pat Bu ow can be ih ‘harsh ox eponiy a, ob ad emerson? The ‘tute mtr inthe sens of sobering ene be cc tae another campeon aly nay ere pene of owing al a yl oa slows wih to engage te {Sure with ste On theo he ays nrtaton may Se fly acute whch wool upstanding of dco fet the poset Carns, bow herein ay Beco fe whan cal ge ito seta the une emo eons, VI The“ Fel Most BeTeee Flasy 123 “summa, tings of dcr may be te est of inl ea as yl ov fae auston. Ts haga epetaton ht ales oo ‘etenonforal ae oi el, prove tat he erence. (ine noe th hie roves, we anders feng s (Fanales ood uncle ‘Asin istration soon wha a en ne fhe oe cn rye nano ie nh Ga of pra nee. ‘iy versed ueumateepes f eliood sel bse” One aes {Twila oct cone he dpe fo whch hua erey ct Ye Sled nea awts d awry redo e apeees ‘Shay can we unconsu og Le, epee) he ecu fen ‘Gumic eens an hee sae ng eeray coe hse Ese ‘Reve y son, an we eeber vets that dnt it Bch ve {Elly oct? Ad aR ane sgh tween such men 1S" Cel events that hve ben eve or reed) ad “se mete ‘SE itary ether ve ban astute or eae)? anges gyal rian ae kg toe th cb st a by aenping "sear ese me ‘Ses, Unumaey he hated deer gal al the cee Sind by are ofthe fc tne te perf meron utente ad ‘monte can se uly al® Never te hopes of eg {red memo people etre tes sry of tte, eli ‘ida pychohey,lipwokook orp and seminar pa eon fm net sro supe oops, arin 0 —_—___ ‘inwacwout hippo nee ‘Bre nating 5.0 age See one S Sie al ne 1 AL Resey 18 Ressiviy is «phenomenon a which the condi of researc ales the rry ‘ey sng aed he ol fresco seme exe Sc lel tus pay tet In tesa sees Spe Ey. wlenere page we arash thy ae ng si hy ae 0 ‘Shelter coms ov unseen) te response Thu, he es. {pion af somal human any pede ey y the Fest ‘no The derma ipsa cmseuent How cane osly Ka ‘ht people ae-renyie by servig he, we case ham o change? “ete ling suey ce epeninent rvearchmetboda hter cooling teveach in oe eo he lbs, sel acest fad ‘henacht conan shadowed byte ese ect? Wen we ish Study psc atures, fr evap ur ms corel oe ‘seueh eto isa tk hem quston abt spar top Uno ley howeree sesh gues ay be ih ect by sma Ce ‘pendent okt thoes wny or een esging the {o kemintesvopinion when hy previa ane, eeBo ca we om {fama or pon eat anc arin soe Way ben ee? ein cpa gbematc ote cnt of pablo re tutes Aint waar ceo the mament a sees ere cory set ty uaa eo ances expats, oc pes ‘oor tne ae ee expen and ow hy my be eed bt ‘Suppose fr oungl dt teers ners thing Whee al “itloang seme y one ers ees s-acanres inate pen Rect the sje ae ave ein obser they may Be pom! to ‘ime inp can ty bee tbe ocd has tein ee ‘Sts. cons thy may aero ast el eyo ee ‘ter sto petapy Sg sn). Tus wht: h- Jew se pean or uoxpeatte eusiag Of susp scab Fenn Sere o dean he expense wl be wale to ease ‘ne behaviog hry coprmaing eae er beans ‘ars eomequeneresvty tm the een fichiers at confess ete ng oer popu nd ‘Sng eh prance of ol cei recive toe tuys ‘ual ay ee Cargbel& Stn, 1963). Two sei fas ot then are thee i wing (when subj rece the expe Inet estnes reed petting arson etn) and the a> Ti ols of epenenal wna trent ty of he resech (eg lf cues sje mse experiment respod fren to te ‘Teen tan wll ple in noneprinetl eg) Thus whee: ‘Sera ayo enrol ae toc, poles ested 0 ‘esty aye nb cose.Exercise 21-1 Par Fer: tvesiping Phenomena Resi some refdoc ch deed owed simply tate sone var ying ance ‘fe teen very esac shemale fone em these’ the presen thas cameras oer en te: of mein donstrany or as ad renee ha cate enna ay ana ee a ‘soundest, ember hat sina ang smeng as cheee Salon Gunn a|coienecaibeacuninnenaiiat es of Rec Bets fee ecu on ofthe ost common tins fhe ail sees a een sher he beer hte eto yi cal hat We ‘oon remain ont pane nto the presence fas, Oa Se ao ke cery et to ese mpc. How can i be nr lsh For al praca purpose if eople eit ae eng se Fea cnet bea prem. Thi thas promped sal eas es ae are of anova undue osm ecngesle esis chert (ang for craps, ida caer, pe ede ‘sem marr), eet menor Ghat the reson ef cpio remasre fot tf) ad’ coment sai (so tenwn eel Teseuch, uch he inspection of sae operon! ls), Clete ‘ecsion to size sch onobasie mene he desc ete peered omthicptinr sage y pr pat ate era efr ay hyPru Fou inventing Phernena sa of pi. But, of ora ith mates, evry deco een. me Notes nd ates ak et ‘semaine {Bett Csi, nl Br ci ed ain poh td ‘touted eet meee a ‘ead Arsh tsp ees een ae rae Glossary Terms, “he fatlowig tems (or vitor) at fone say ite eealiiy ete ewe ‘eno oma scr been Siac peseny sonore rege ‘iwour le Fee tf tng se recive efit oeapetinera Secours vey ee tee sie Seca fon tenes ‘Syecnton igs eerie etna eral iy sy Chapter 22 XXII. The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy When Expectations Create Reality ‘ete singing ame Fk Poe zs Yeu ely set ra te ings anenecn pk beens Eintert pasting tow (Sitti lone ened sal Stuyrber dome po Rteer ig teste ester ts mea om iene tesa ee _ l he? waa Four oveigsing Pherae The sie nt es fl ot te pp th spt ow nent—scaly pote he my bos tes ee fn nhs mosses es spn ap ne as Tae eee the Sealing Prophecy, i iti ext nas cee fn Seng Tepes an Roa a et Seon in racism ga {isc rrinpa we nologies teat “eminent kr men eset ota aren a Nae eet ee sia Red we ein oe mee Sued hme ne Sn nto Sxprer mm neta seers ito me ea yd ey ny eee ‘xt andthe “igh” scaly eda snide ee 4 taste dc ten tone “RUN nd der aay wi ope eset aly Araceae’ prepa nae ene esiec gous tradi who naam abet eee, ea ea nin ie em rnc {Te Sling operas en ener a aay Pehl mere peen Speci ng hy Gat {sme 1270," Ong Scne& Bhy 209) eta aon a 109), etree ne Sod Tks pe suppl Se oh). eens Reg 0 We & Coope 197) and ern seenpes cen piel esc (Sie Tins & Bench (97) These seeker tn te rane we hare onder thi fic he pres wee ava of tio epost pecans nc Co ing prephcesocr ds as cnsuene af cpeen ae ‘et tht free most prt ute smaaes ene {00 The Sal Pulling Prophecy 198 Sone ein ik. Mess Ke (1840, xno inte the em poo tino abe he antes ing ene ong Ga yt) wca e rcin o {frees co ter pou Te gree then ites er Feros na fu dsp ores to ane ea ea ‘Efe. ceage-and nso doing lst ethers ber dogs ies ot Hao 98). ay tg (8) wd mi de wn scion compen of te Set Piing oper aah than, ‘mycoses sendy peso hi ome tothe Aste Lng oy ye es Sy obey poet, hve mance i be i uh poation ‘Bese cl eps ost anderen ba 18-1203 Not cya mdm sae fh ener hk Sar epson Ings sherbet bt we probly ae een er ame ow ote Semen erst pd on “ea Sty agecain tose whom elo rae ‘cell hang osmeon ch oes eae Spe heii ean sas Belerinc cites Spt eat ea iver ae vie ets SO ic oes an hak wae on, wt pln Beta? Paani Hee hn arisen pec ple fee BictsbetntCew senes Melee ‘haan reece Seca alrusetai ere, imrnenom Exercise 22-1 ‘Ae an eee, ther scentos—ther hp o stusl— loving te Sailing Rober In aking Your selcons, conde wey op ce ere us eg nal eat an ago, ngs mae, envi, alee competion ‘etal pean) wigs (eg eset sso, weigace ty Feipous mila iterator, couiean) elatrship fe pela Fea pon oman or sca or goverment pies, pops opel eagle eng teesyeetingyererempany ry nary150° Pat Four: esting enon wenplomen, ig foci, mandy semen, campeny to sel at das. un ny ‘Th ah crater your gh sow ee A pe aon ig nce ober han ora een Bae any ‘ny sh ers Meow WR a Te Ra The Conon Ras rere) La, dc how Pose ‘ould cae Reson Bt ee nae a Peano is aps tn. Inte erase oh ape ter of eee eee ate cle of asomang Pe ud cytes i ‘ea of esc sane teenth semis "Hts oF Peon As expectaions on hier er behav oward en B UL The Sl Fung rptecy 49 a cts 0 Peron Aegean ons oer eho oad arson fs of in ovine Porn Rerun ans ‘din Bre teed 88 es 7 a i nn instr Zao 1960 = pena) 5 ‘ewan aug pce Glossary tems ‘The flloing ters (oasis ae dine in te osu sempon ‘eon enue fer Seta one) Saree incon tober it ee someon cere rope eneeion Sone Fraoa orc reagoad ng orement Seton relabiy152 Pa Fou vesiging Phenmene Sling ropcy into scereonpe Chapter 23 XXIII. The Assimilation Bias ‘Viewing the World through Schema-Colored Glasses oe fection ‘Siow ston ag? ‘Sema worl pee he wa Sharsrome Ba esey ae : —_» 153Pa Fou ening Phenens Ove che ost fundies an pervasive fal human phological act tin be open ee ee en ee te clas eg. stentze, rp and sup ese sb, erie stu the weld ron the, oe We caer everything fom ptosis aes an natn cep, lings and eprint The pbsnscesn sempre te eat ‘Serer alate stn true: eer ace pee and ra atts an gos, cca opts, os ay ak ‘omic pts nd cleats colin, ne sn pe, GI feel we eco! cen f pcan eis nd pes, lea sl ett! ctoning meal dander these Senet enmaratin sees eee cana ed ages ‘tose chs coguve Sa mol ep o aas ‘We ci concrete aac ate egy men reeset cha Aschcoa'scogive cure at ee Sako, ts nd pepe rong anew fe aoieancig new cet and eure expr Gee Cant & ek Ir set Ear 184207, Lo hl Sl 96, Pag, 19% Se, Pepa Tp 199) Ft abe a, seis i el epcaon penetra we ngs fpaamoens {esa domain tse rcp ee sou url srr it poe wir ou tom an re sbuerple wom os dak Ln, Uo he pene ree nay tp, melo, po ase ‘lowonoee San or ay ote chs te may ew ee ‘ps as equi pup schema tamon 17,1 “ate cg tte tn http tears tat ae ictlacs Naren nee ‘nat pps then we come aos infra eden om ou prceerps? Fat soe a, wat do we so when thee cla Ue he ne nd our shema? The Sis poncho an Pages (195, 197) denied wa complementary pees ta me ile in ach ia ‘ie seman sad aan Acoray 0 Pat Wh of thee esonss eter eapenent fcr Sree so ose testy wc apo or ene destruct ea onl The Asien ie 155 comma fers othe pros wher we iy ut she the dss Ina nnd age or pesining ble ott hey mike ‘Mon fr hat "actmmoaa) et tnrmation. Asian, y {rose mraneto my the daa ot ot shra ere, we necro New [nuton ne or pressing elec meas canping oso ‘the ration. “The conduc of scenic methionine the process of both assaf ad stemmodon, Specialy, eras tse ego {Shel bere oly thm sake See otf an overran ay of SSS icine: heguny borg, someties ice al al Te agus eves Iso wn, they sama eerved pe ‘Seven tect sehen eo longed an the ey ‘Geach ate ssn elcid cea Sere ts purpose Shops bower ha purer lesion Scones or email the SuEkaas capes: ety, the ew ar doesnt fe he ol he SerNow anche puro aowdge, gon slept se th file nara slender he ary am dete cs te people eer mae appt ut of ishiaon and acorn ans" anaes by ag. Cosel sear sho ine AE tne alot departs boven dat ad schemas pay ae ‘ued mate In hereon of sian ha comme thes ‘Tents aici t sate dats ee shear tan he the ‘yao Movie se aaa nen sors lea sey bk sd even ears et ie ‘cent inhenaipoeing Ho do chen toth hepa oder oo ‘hiking pros” ‘onbe pes side ote edge he abneages of hema proesing ae san in eden Fie 18,200) aon Se nts dacs se, hme bp spr, oh, ed aera ileman tener enor linn, emer rhage to nen: mk nerreaon on 0 ree ete ure povlng or wih exec ase pot {Geer Mite 1977 yr & God, 281 “came hea sys ciety ss dea po cessgin acon tpl eto XX, ey Deco STaELSmy Oars ees a aos of prelabl and ena ‘lst es nt, Fe hes, yey me, ‘shaadi ey rene, hey ed le ana nd sete ave pecan at fa {Sear kein te compl of avo pene Sond cs ‘Sie eceing sc soya ie consPu Fou avstiging Phenena ey estat 0 cane hin eg wh eo art, he getter pcr, regs ep of oe eo ening or pera come we endo Exper een pe incr whe is gexec te ‘Shas nod dane ps hy fecha ‘sng escent pln natn “hs ia mann en wide vary of ma contents te me ‘npran of ich ae ed ht ang sn ccs to eet is Suh). Saieay ne ae oe Ma “einai at consent, che han incense, th ar ‘hema (aby Ba + ysis on Wil a nt nest pri aman ‘ay by oe + imere ambi alent ee oni infraton a ‘igor chen (cel ences cd +t sec finn tacos our chemas (Cen Frain + seal or sine ration but teres ha ates cur sheme (Hiab + ror interne a eens ss (Cetin Das Nov Prove Custom evr edt Inte Resa) + mingle the very event weep od (Se Pang Penis a * str eur ction, cating. drags of new infra: in ‘Bp nos inva: wth chem onto, ft isc ‘let han pete cng shee ee ‘the Assimilation Bis) cs o Jn sem, aches aso pets of ay ome tem consent ith what wea tele Ati te Aan aero age, ‘an bce to tr inking aleve probe sng avenge ‘wl ugh cheno gs” we ajc vital ncn er. "aon tovaying does ose, misnercnon tl ae “Avid even po pore! Rab Des (194) hla an ‘nde involving Naga peter tas decom ting The exh a ‘jr medal choot pleco wy his tion ws suf ‘sempre fale sen ee aepu of Daves oat, [Be the role: What emerged wasting, One the venereal Se mean pe en tr ‘eae ite pene cain oo ey otic ‘Spat. weer thewoman'was ot mare he jue! tote mate" When sb wat mare, he ncaa she at “ne Sl x Te Assiiaton Bas 157 cheno in edie” And whe she was de “New No ia Rote No ssc ah na ear tae Soon Skies moencttaseroes peers sedi esate face eel ia a eat coms Pet fe sabjct wr ol t espera es era ee i ct edie She cients el cha eal RGN Car oe esearch carmed oat by one ofthe poets of modern socal percolony, lege tidircaerae sone tags te pret fm te Key peice pwede Bear eset a soci hapten kara Se eeu ota are eyes Seaarsale es ces Ei er hora Asan ilsuato of he Astin Sa in en ing conser se mse wd een ree ine F ‘ej wherever fe ok Suppore you mae to ak a thespi 1 SATin ant caning of tenons the ets might ese an ation Bere tre lng ter bets trap happens (0 vew the ‘Trough dearly Hr schema of psyeapaolgy. He they iced oltre ou the long erectaPor Fou lenin Pensens 1 eptt vion ny fii ppinee in aihe teat anes eae : . he wit aout poms ds bck othe 93 log ied Inde 6, Hy he been mae opt hn ayes ea eatin nt forts ts tharos ce Sc ae gd ey et ds fe iletct mina cer fe lon ern encare weaa oman hrf subsume ad ome taco cpg cus examin ane clink plan of schematic procsig Po toterpts pally align denser wt nd wer) ees toe ‘cine rane frees knoe a “tal een “A acho standing the vir ot iso er chen As sch tse seats ese {othe sae ses in asiiion dite atone, Tae terpas Se ‘heen, iced Yo pe, ney snd alt cee pons fia (etext rb ow Bt to, tomes rempavectte st vay “hin enon the inal mtn satin is (COAB) pedi ose heap sysematily oer. dou or et aera pe secs ahd way of understanding tr lent We cn fnther dings sea rleatgie o he COAB, sera of whch ee eg inated he ar than exe om othe COMB eel le, sey acta pein the poem of eer en * Te Biman Asilatin Bi» ech inlances and eae proms +The Pychaani snati Bis-aosos tion and cof +The Copii eal sion Bin ey bl pee ipo eing +The ay Spi Astin t+ pol ai latinips 1 Te oon Abe Aan Bs» an ate penal 1 Tew ye Meyrin a» learned lesson om as fe Exercise 23-1 ‘Te falloning xtc in sian il pve you some peacti te ing he same peneenen ah dee local aes Soo {he pepe rm elit elo (rf our own chxng) ea ates ‘ares fo bow ti nv! mig pee, enn et eos "eeager om your nalghberond who enya in bely plteng Thee “atch en By sewing he une eeaper deren pepe. xl Te Asian Bi 159 tet fae) ane gag mem pes pci ma Ninwestrs ner lomlandvoplogt_dergund popper Meningie Gena Ft fcasevter pata Tiel eomocie Now hg piloophe © Diagnostic Labels as Schematic Filters: The Assimilation of Psychopathology owl hi Mog noe vl ted a Dai sas (97) ened ay tt denon ig Pome dg ing te oy ear nt Ro REUSE dren sures the pedopne compan of “eang {Sle tt “enim td "ern preg ‘vit od ig ae ncn pode ah sree ees cn wales sree pe ens een es th iene a {Eye Gr sanen we hal ae pts tel cos! lg ea stb a a Fehon fe wars hey normal” bv : oun adh pcs nd Ou ely srr he Soret as ene sn nd hr wr ny rely tence Stay be ante oseroions f Sows pecan ea tl ee i na ecloaiens ines pret Stent ih me Forearie,any ft pcan’ ute trmal He hse when viewing Ghpubstepalcomex, appewel sono abet pa tah ict]. -embaene dese cope vat eis me ei (Gehitght The Bara Bm) “The digo labels ere power ett ray human et lion the par ofthe propa wa ree aan he ies For cage er ering pscuiedesearer ing ner ne ure ommend in he ype “Pe egg ting Se isthe ptioging a ostnciy untae hoa ay oer Sony pan eee ne cs ing te hp ‘Sb tr ohn on pan of eens ae {he cabin pte of te saome Rosehan pin ou hat ‘epee ote ote py din pee ep se ‘rere fo eens look lord, whe teen ft) Tape ofthe apenas nt ono te pce wae eve dace! None othe pceops ar cage ee an Weck, The vege leh of orp ented: he ogee ar wa oa When coop wae rere ot tease they weeded ob ne ers hy wees hare wha dgosso "Sena lvetaon Clare Sel Rosa, pica har le and an lene tts Ar there wan whe an guard geste aver ef the Assman tas? Fs es pint aero unesiaeteee to hid your por eles, knowledge and expects fan ase our coe ‘Spree. impressons and peptone Send yt bene ics ‘foul fhe henata tat ent inpocat oy Renee ha ‘ete sen pet nas rary aly on Tt ‘iment wih epee lowering oor ere tes asco ‘tyes by atenping nds, ly at sl sense es ‘bce (pbanerenlegea preps end tare. Foy ao ‘teeny se anno ur cameo, ary en Youre fed ith crepancy beresn your ele) and the fon Gn) Rte stp 0 ey hese sons wc aspen asinine ae ne whe, ut ofa el, eat ies, yo aly we eel ‘stomatal oassmie y strng to bane yar eae fey youl doses held gp hry fhe care Notes PRE nnn eens a a meme elses eed ae Boma 57 "ech Sm agra ee ecu iemnesete ssrarny pomh Setting te Set eo Shee areca aera SErkiomeweue Glossary Teens oa craton Sem as aoe 2 Soe e Se bee com Pelle SEE tnt teey Sa —_ Soon soon fen ote Sec eae162 Pr Fourteen encom = theoresat = = subsequent ted Chapter 24 = Sa a : XXIV. The Confirmation Bias ‘Ye Shall Find Only What Ye Shall Seek ——— ‘you oad enw oe ‘aca onsen epic tt Sc bolsimeed oyWoene we we contcing foal sate ies o iy tenis ene, ae eh sho on inl tatcn np part nny es Oe fray ant eae amen a eee thor evry of ar bee a ec ve mist ste ot et spa ye te ee a ech oe ‘ean ef he cacy yah ia dng el ‘restorer abn oil Berit ena postn toe ee me she telly a et hd te cae ine at Sra nd fet pt or ocr’ ‘ap atch we any Poe sh aman eqn a ‘land Scepter nnn ines iwi upc Ta wc ey fe ae ‘erwin cre whe estore ces ‘np re hem Our pcy to ur ira in tion {SEL te comm a We my iste astra eg ‘pesos tt set weer interne sa rit Senin she nemo erence bn ‘sane ar ny pop ees ‘The Confemation ae ha en ead in a ire ary of ese secings (Hyon Hs, 1967 Sk & Sern, 16 Wasa 130), sc a ‘Specttons fgu insume ie Cl Mami & Moore, 208), ‘tol ae stars aka rnp 50), aa ep evenent chess ims Fo peopl empy stages fr cng informant eel op {ele Hag & rh er ay Tat 1970 cig sees were rue oil noes aoe her set to aaa te reso fet penalty ts Plo sera he a ee ae ras an eon (uy ote, seal snd prepa the lo Se et iar demi imac wove es er fn Al sts then were resend wth Ist of Quensne a “thessl excatenien aod ners om which hey ete sed {eh quistons tsk he neo Tests the sty showed te jos who were asked ld ot ‘ne ieee ata eee preferential he exon quent (eg, "What would you do you waned Coven Wigs Up a Pan) XIV The Conemion as 165 ee ew ear aay hard ro sie sient meer ta ett hese were Cm atc et ee sa adr oc ey aa gees saat dehemrse ack Beret rine an penaioe ta mh nena “Taian aan ‘Seen “te oes mbcicnaars ere eaters pee scr eaeion manna aitnerterelasrg Ee rhein ate Biba yatta tec eseamar ee Seite te teams tcp eet anae aeaarere toe ea ee iar Bees Conese Rea ae De tated oo Babe ain rate eeteeremnec Sieniar ta ta tate at urtate Dor ey coeeatt enca Fou neigaing Pinon ae mad is ind ht a a i spre tn ‘Spender pobiem but vio reverts, Br the poi an “ale romp” Ae geting now ht, hee ou Soy cane oth Soni ea i, fate des ave iin olen al ‘Once you've gate ater sock nd oven er om ea ‘sean o cep ts concen Methoug 2X Te le es Severn Et), you woud opel ase oat at wet Ws id oor pent or our cals deters Scie pou ty ponding oa ithaca owl ou deco ry ake sting Infrae sppeted you ie exact bee of sigh (Method XXVL The sigh Bi) now see hain Ob fu thar many peopl who at aie + ae luca lost ily bt saa nage ote, akc peo yes, 1 have cated ng + experience cain! pees emery, + fe throug periods depen o soi 1 pay ad ene + aye wich er poe, + sommes ieporbi sh ple of plone + ress han wally hres i eating hh Bicbease oh one and mantra wich you guid you tes bout these eet, he pene you wil te eves you eee ‘eto oui be abba an alc In ate words th ‘Contton Bs, you unenaly ude i dom pth fag your pecaneed concen : thc ume ess the spi ay ences “ie presence sme ter spc al pretension depress, sey. ‘pls prra and doedeny 0 ening der eal nde, ont cde or vented ne cod ental abe Exercise 241 As an exces a acing ey and to ren he Caiman imagine that ou, a cin ane theta of cong Inline inet th cheat wom ou know ating exept or ise her “adiingdagoss praia Some of your neal gueione sainlae 1D one fl pict pl mains? 2 Doyo el ht vr peal at a hyn re? IV The Confimation Bis 167 3. hs sins Sd elo i my ha ete ou? ee ete cof atsrfheae uesons ty ay ead soning awe How neocon hr? The se es in ‘oping asx feet nfrton tt debra mt ee, ‘ntl lr exten Spey, ork to prt» Ss of {percha cones ee, nen, or one i Sapte fereumpe 1: Wit oe pf oe ht riche nee ar 2. Onesie fom neta tm how ii ein oy? 2. How gin ey npc et aly eb? ore eae th ype of urtine—teatig an nocexing ak te oan ingyen © ACH reing tse xa Slt» Parca Pontnlogat Roem, eter fom the tamper of nl ple gen ‘Bhs 160, ro ys own chmng New soc feng gr te de aly cn toca e dng. apie © The Confirmatory Bias of Theoretical Orientations “The ngc of th Conran Ha can bt persia isos uke in ge eure fy the tapes ew comin, vss, od lt Specter eo sk glans, pote for informatica, sd des the fos of tment tse on th spc eel ere ta, Ae comeguenc cents are apt froMdeendeace at Pps he theres pra schoo the hey Scntoing he ay of ‘he apprese sthi ya Four Lvenieting Phenomens * ruins earch fr—and heroine ae te ly 0 “oc ‘bs ices fee * os So ern pega opie asain * Aerts fo suas rept compen fr pd + Bionins Gd dee eset sing fom adequerece ‘homo pychonacal ees a “ham hpi nd emg sepepns dhder * ciel eps nd tes for meaning in ea ntl ‘recy, * sherpa ind esc swzenes an incoplse gs + oc esring cheapie ay oe ing, + cope hens natn el pen ‘ay dais in yeti ly tens + Howesia ily herpes dow lee of eierenton + sag my erp interpersonal power ssa * nrc herp dale ound es, ti Cn Be in ny ir econ ed eure choy In fue aps inl ‘ctv pee fr inrmaton d k nig odes a see to ‘est tht peconeced hnet cins tor they te to Fen iy The Confirmatory Bias of Projective Psychological Testing ‘3 inl ipeaton oh Contain Bs es xi oe he mt tee lps a eco psn pony ee Nae ‘Rotate oarne opto staan hn ate ‘nvr exposag ibe caine ose ener regu sh dtr sing Mer he eens ey he ‘esotropia Bn 85h Proporta pose ne preset aus nl hy {iiropnd yen mye "ein um etn oregon ese ey eeog et eco dams Gnade tet aes cenfce ncte, Sloot, blames idan aes xt The Conimaion as 169 ‘te most we Anon proce es te the Roesch lo Tes te ‘Tera Appentton Te (AT), the hoseee-pron OAT) pote ng claus ess ores cop ets the Ca Otc Form) acon of pepe es ae mune and we lent ee Cpan& Chapa, 1867, 1869; Dawes, 199; Lene, ‘Wo 2 Gah, 1000, Wont, Nerorel ef & Gr, 203, but ox ot joes al fs on justo tae the robe of Cofino Bs. Fnenae seng ccs employ poate ests x on component fa pelea ese ae, ch pete a des ry tbo sd cues ach es raed ere, behav ob aloo oareed pray guestonaes, and meses of oie ‘atid he ik ew wasn mea ee ‘Stier usualy withthe pole ang ce agro el eat ‘hate do pe set yt proces? although ey may serve sore fot ne psp prea cot clic ‘icgnont impress: (Doyo ae penal robles hee?) tet w xine oe hype scot. Spe at, sed on he ret fs conpnsn assent by cin ete Conte a ec Qe 3) esate ede T cote {Byers Sgn sede ose Ronchi Te ng sot penne fr nh of ant se ws Me Tat igh hs fo and then sega js down vebtin apsaca Son f ch nde “oni wenger EE oaletoashng ooh someting lak Ie = pec of deni {Decshlgtom e pl mpg shut somahing moses {ingle doa tpt Tr mou ee oe heey on ema Te sin te emer aging Boe acpi ize dc the coo Supp He ao sie pce (9, eg ars ne a hock sgt rene ems eqs tha ime cons Siestong sling ene sling exode or okingang) Tn, EN ppc uy Cori cna lia dag Steerer ch an Me ahs cans of spree eens eh ‘Phone costae alien conyers o hs ptt dans ‘wi soos corse Xa ped eer fh Kins Wolds fon he sans gon? Nov nese, ‘etoul jsas ily cone Me ape oe rena ‘oveig tps age tense nl ae Hay be Bed enh te sucess tootsie ene Ths ve tbe compe Snrafageeine expenses cook soins her psa oppesiees. Foal he cme wee tomes sn erg meee se rerotes on he och Te lanl ay nf ae {Evie Xappen ste ony poly snl nh trom alle Hie een eter One apn be dass as ben Yael IkPa Fou: vein Phere ors mo mat Wha Me X oes de ot cy perth prey roy beep a conning tdci sagan ceo ows pose? Rent da rete ine ol dh scanty nie st ei iu lyon eh ran jose sop pin Frenne ine er nner Maree ee pe Keie“t toowap*Tar pce wt ec a fei inte soe son Bayo ee ‘ie Arn Ba ep Xa el see Sin pre cence tt Sora al eh ‘Sf fie nova mah Sn et "an xen, vit ny Sagi ae “wh ss ms ef pote ner i se ee ‘Sal bt ems th lot neces ‘i yd Mien tet desea Se ten oer ty of ipa Bee ge ‘Sconiming sue ne ee tone ng ee ‘rome lite pes Sacng te ‘vty nln td aay hee ae iepintors Amit te tn ee pee fr wee SS tegen ed ha fr pn) ce a Soya How ca we gar pst se Canton Ri? Fc fee by being sae har we ae pone oe ted alt cence. Neve ge ‘hate ucts eat may ed sleet ate ony oe ‘srs da oot oar ntl tec: There eae Wk ee ‘vl sek ot eee that nel prin, ele your preonetcs in cis way. you wil hep to ena at» Cousin Wi bo Bed ‘ie he each eve er Notes "unin Ep en rm pe 85. say ne “thanceny tf lin nt sn stom nor supegtinox isin sie emer eee the Sigeson eet ne hee “Oa ac ed ede ped 9 id ‘Thermage a a een Be Be (ND he on eee Glossary Terms xxV. The Contato Bis 174 The fllonng ens (or ans) ae defied in he Bossy ‘bigot ‘re Spon fessor Ebmorttcory ke Janae ‘Sabon Spaeeoe pacer trait erp poe interpeona, inepeain| invoic ower, mot ‘nope Fra dior rr ‘coer therpy Porelogal Forbolog Porteneey Ey ‘preston ontas ent canes ‘aba veryChapter 25 XXV. The Belief Perseverance Effect ‘The Rat Is Always Right >—____ Th rn age ocelot ‘stl ps yn eT tai! it do eg he ee in ii Ha Wea at apne ci wie Gre gto mo a Pet m xv the Bl Pevernce ee 173 Tovr step to understand the world around ws and wo nevgste our way ittgh i, we op awe ase of be, the ct of whe om th ota (he tat wand of hp) he tou (he me. topotecan): One ote st pian chars of ou el {Pe dee oid we acme personaly vested them. The seach thy boo sg that ur elise fo st hy aes lt opens none oft ey en "Wut happen then, when or bl are calenge? Pati those tate that wt happen ie Oe tee ts weep! ar petn? OF me thar have comets meeps rth ‘Fae wert erpnd to mc allege purely aoa! manne we woul sil ech personal eng cunt the subse the ha Tong at osc and anon a pool, and hens ppopate, ‘ny our let sori We woul tm ther wordy scone Ue ‘ew ormaton by modiing our pesing shen ne Meat Sn The Asiaton a) ate ety ato. tic, sine We ene ons a a8 Say, when ou sl stn elnge eae reo et ‘we pesomly beng cent. When our Bese cede el ‘Sataed When ou btete sci fe staked. Our ple, ‘here, pit preorder ure Aa oh steed tong ou te pots een ee of some een "Theta ced the Bo osm Ef comes tare Toast Rte Rsevece Phenomenon st Ln, ss, Lape 1973). When we engage ia bee prererance nly respood to such ch lenge dicen, denying sn paring a naan tht as ‘er tar eT nw ret potently dco eset ‘Suen sv ihey ido vay ete or exp, appost 9 ed of Sours acimanly matin that rapes a ttf dene, Se” I Tesonse, ou pn oot hain aru pean tothe and et Youepin fret Ua the ara eas of he serait ape rr ae es of lent acs (MeV “he Sty Ungueas Puan) We would ta tape, innanc, a pon wre dae ve te bad fap, in conta ra ett apelin he ex rune Aa such sed once (order you nce “pe anette iene” on rd pte ‘Beat appara ling Woe ad then els "Oh Ise wt You {Ths of core, tmamonot to ain the ct dot oppor thenh she cad et wronp™Par Four lve Phenomens Toe Ble eevee Ex madera emily ty by (res Lord a lesser (97) Te eats Sgn Oy See, two gape of alee sade one in fof capil punches le opposed oi The sec ten mee shaw the ls fo pps ‘ye reach stacey ane thet sept the efx fea pa ten 1 detevet to cine nd one the ect oeagyTs ‘espn? sibs bah eugs nee favoray imped wi te sf that upp the ow por lets we hy cased the sai at Conrad them Te reece onl tht showing ce respi [uous an Ken body af med eens fle to arto the Spee ‘ube an beso erate they bly perteee en wes xe snd tht the etme opporog thei ecco Sho ins reseed m whch sets were arrest ‘ett prperteyshoned he 9 eee "cay sence” (os Upper tse, 1879) Subj mete tego fcnedt e es ‘tl a fa nde povided tds Ese nh hs ‘ig bnweter ajo il pe in telnet hy nee svi se Sie. Okernier hav oronte th gee const tha reales ‘noch sre comping eect to he ur tl than tl eae Chem inte tt place oo Andlran Lepper Ree. 190; Gooner ‘ie 200; eps os Lu 188; Ras Leper 1960, Sit 2005) can we enpge In tele puserace without joing conrry nia? What we a ale een aoe not so dey ignore pcrilydscofnng ein ete any wop tht We ‘Scena clog tea here ella wl emerge vita ean you nay wkend ye eh ‘ial ats expo wo marie ad asters eppnens oe to tis own adage in tlt fat of geal contronsm, we dy ‘ed io eden ot es in sch wath the rept aaa ‘on now actly "pre" our xg tele Tn eh werd meee ‘servings live scomoton, “The fllonng pre sas bow people an enters conecary and oealy eof ao spy tr recetg belie -Awonan wis no pst lectin tt se azanble The pris tags best ocomiceber an yea mg en “Totes and epee patent Swe youre testing toa She bute bee “Dhan dorsal Doth ed ‘Noltcorsenasophepae amy AAV. The tee Rezeerne Bel 175, wee you bt oir wang ae pages De nee Sep oe ‘orarom a sna ood sas potato wos The wong ter ama shuns the eA a MY Guang Zettel cing ange con of config evidence topper one's fs ells es ar the suey af Cal Gg lm. Das ‘ers (1961), In ceetg sel expences as a0 epee = chi ele ang sale {ade man empath eng my igen paints sbi ee an ern eens te these ht not ee al i | hn a Leo ns sno hei de {raw poser ee = ene arene fs thine Ini nope tp eathogh I). mines o Intent tact on comers (eathog conning tes hth Oletionts an eres n edn tine ten ing Oates XX je People who ie serene sou it kv what hey need fina llon oujr doth whet ou. Wie Then yuma oly vere Beno iyo i hen youd ow. id: Pango, hat woman elated me Tie she yt en, ‘Dek: Wel dm post se wold’ be making rch an aie lo ignve mei ea down, he meten rely arate me {are Ne Yorkers ys ds ero ve nan snc youth pipe browespfoncaoneosse he okie er Yen, bt fe a pen ee same ron ta New York, we ‘uk ave ae athe ro sete fe sty carlo that he’ goverment ose wr Non don D youn ay enc eee pt ‘Price No turd youve any ete hatePa ou: esiging Pence tm My patie psec dsp ned carci of Beyenen ema Done ‘Stretton iinet dee, oun ite Ovo hes jt way gen hes des me. anim of oeompensen, wich he uso dry ef th ses ‘aly Depend Psa Dir rai ph Al wren ne unconsoual rere pei ‘oulepae tne wna doth ohne pen a ‘een pine ew |e? Tht fr Sows bow dey ‘pela the oncnscs ye prem Septal hart Jen col he md, meri at at ary fn hth etwas new Septal her xl my pA ch prov ihc they we Iceni the appearance te they don’ he any poe Toy bates Iu cote they ve een pe you in thevng a ho ‘oo he ay contol Erni: A ies athe oe. ae pleaded 3k stich Got —— ‘is Wel non tht and oped ans Then you igh brent yl cs bean ath. eae ea hy mn: Al nen ey a i, grep ergy nr an eat we Fr graphy mob Wel hen ether Yor hg 0 eo ee ‘Nog our ayo ota Exercise 35.1 ‘Asan exc In fuer xaniing the varus minions of bts peseterne compete hese rca ‘eso The eit ne, on Bute ins wo be campetl resonable bie con. XK The Ble ercveane ect 177 Pra Sener ante pinion Pram Bet cele opinions ron eience and op? rem You ca’ ove nyo eh es you fist ve ous ran Wal on’ ey ve tal hat ch, bt do love ey ra Yat aig on big stoi ‘ran Bt Fe mest ou wih eting bat hoe, spect lay ‘duc ve eon People wha tn fini ere bul as clin, ‘en ds Buty bod, who i vy heed fina, wae Shed ae el Pra A Araneae the mate ce Fram B The how ome they le Wad Wor IP Especial “fie” er ese A Yo ced our ile cs she nso reminds os ofjourmether war hon ou ave an wesc Odili ‘Shige ier seral dee rs Buty wie iting Iie my edhe sn Theol eon she gt heb ibs ania Fora Te nly eston he cdi’ ete jo i eae ses a ele rir. an orn cing osu josoking a ee178 Pa For aetiaing Phere. ‘rs Hone pe aman Pret Phan The Holos ie bagpen. Prim A: — hw Gad ono ite, rn As for amides othe Bl Reseeane Ect, hete ae to ui sues Their one ines bong mares fn Om ne oes tinned cnt aces es ne tas ae sn tea 4, 390) Fr sence iyo ses aon bento paar ced of poe ‘tn ea hoy eee i {arora your oh pt ew wb ducing ent a Soper ty ete eet tary oe eee ‘Ano eed for relight of ble prea i 0 civ urge or peste let (nde 190) Inher weds Sk yours int wap yor bee rip Re wrong. Sy ou cat caus hc 10 apa ny the ble mah een, One ee ‘ciao dig ws 0 oni teeter ecusugh VD, Reseach Showa tat wie pope snared coat te pouty tha he peste fhe Desh ete they a es iy ol nto tehepesenrnce a Leppe 8 Peon 1980) 1, une i hee at hon ee ay anc ‘ee eto desi by cling o's meen Same ch 3 sod ental eco te opt: Ray oe ‘iin whiny one mp be oo ete as ing Ge nese et caplet ga er chin fi Si iy itis yout eosin charges ren ct aly todiing ons eal aes, ak youre how tear might be Be tangy ming oer toons. To cone mak ap eft o hep an pe ie diet era, sc hl is oe Uo you seve aad again the ten) ‘lng to or bles ne ce of daconeig eee you nly XV The Rl Peeve lek 179 fd ha you il ave boned ours int scone eed defers pe ‘eng ons vr he ae “Decale me with he "Mee fre ht inthe El amt "he a alas Wht sie mening lth Meng pic ae a aonton? As = Sinagt epee image ty ve developed as ear hey cn Se eh fn or tae, Fa or oe ‘Eves phthalate ae. Now {tery dt youren undtde oe howto erperenal i Aad ‘earthed oobi ha ow econ ey ‘kein fc tonight Then Ite one gto our asthe (ott ‘tention re) one ra scaly has the andy to un et What do ou (he Oean,smeing’ goo ge. Bue what Te tory oF te a? ccs nto Test ash wong afc the tar (hong Al false cing peo even ase yy ead ee thy ou tts me reve ou hey 1 coun rte abet vey unvecoe iofeoth nsum Bele pele ‘ere sang, tet raw he Notes NS maa ‘end tng lc wd ema erence nt eae ba rt an tlc Cara aoc ge flap ntact Sages cece im “SSSR on tal nd a (98) ni ote fy ince Glossary Terms ‘The felonng toms (or variton) te ie in the os twconecdion ecive ening Sone ner ie aries enor ter ae ‘ses ele Peeve ence et ce ier fo deease ech Somos fake feaseqence oenee in Siena180 Par Four nesting Menomena ieee ite Tnowtedae Porcotheaey evening sep Sect ng Chapter 26 XXVI. The Hindsight Bias Predicting a Winner after the Race Is Finished % oping mers como ‘lon at ‘deur nee 181Pat For Iva Perea Tonk he Midi Bas (so mown asthe Hewat pn fers ‘or tenfeey tobe th we cl av rene bow someting ted ‘ut Dut ca afer eaminghe outer (e Fa 197,180, 180) {esp rts pal spe ow rc editor rene ttle Inter word we to nretite o xgpese st we old avant ison tn exp ater he at whys arate ston he ae gute sober mater to et Beferhang whh ee ‘n.stcoon en pee a Ina ls example oe ich Bis, the proverbial ‘Mody mers lng querer yo wth trang cnr ed precio, wat FE Gppomcn wes planing steam sould fave fen aed ht ‘ull ve em dane oe ge batf oureeny win he enelt thi ny epee rug which nigh aways 20720 Yo ‘ay have egret he Hants youre when renig a ence ove eins metry oro ang ale pale Oe he soon ar een reve ston iano he Hii Bas puis grobenac fr ppcohistorin who eteen "paetaopel sucpoar on four perros ee Rana {Sei an force! polos who wt evo cre ie 06 ‘he cheno th nates th neato eg by eat Enon a ees so ee” ow te eon aay ured cu) With cs wedge in nd the ivi an per eens an deter ‘Bele pt he) evan tf sare can i hry ae ey “som novi fkeng seen That, especie ewer theca ‘letaton, Reg ily gurttce asia epson” ‘As anus ofthe Hadi Bs, consi he ian sai Suppose ha sy se bers hohe nepapes You scan eet sting bay abut ou lunesta, aan wo deed sew Frlpng the doves sd the ney. Jonata lan of das Charatan, erred de sete! tthe Hales ae tat coats ses, hespal fr uncepged een You re Fehr tat how hv was xceponaly waumate He ep ‘act pvey hems ba re fi te and be mated Indes is dr slot apd ply stecunbed to cane Why i ths man frome suck an os oud We xy (eth een ov) 0 ‘oli ccmplshnetsn em of i seen toner to ce oan rhe eens of scandy ping sehr oe ng ae Aetna ten pen 0i ‘Now gine he sue ei, a with ne escent tearing humm ended becoming er ler mn ‘teresa aboutng melesing, ad marin oer azn eel AVL The Hing Bias 183 ido How might we epin thi oums Soeny the sn past et (Gitdoed pony hers ue ote’ fa ers) take 009 On Pisin ning ina he very factor hat a te st Seno [Ny cened an ht nth ned seat poe packet The cette of hr ema can “aly be expe i ter of Tepes ge, lsd saves ant smb eve. fo the sigh ie “The Hing Hs hs ben demonstrated empl in wide ange of resuch pce svch ple ction (lank, Fehr, xls, 203), Ina dan ating ey, 207, coe the ie span yen, Fol Er ‘ld Auer 200%, aco curs (Pn, fen tac 28) ‘Snong poh (Lebougeo, Pals, tans. & Applebaum, 2007, ‘nd among scien (Woodard eal, 208) Al of ese sco fm hr evens snr se ness pate ean han indi, an ht Snowing elt mle seem eae (Fo ‘Boh 1575 Sori Fahl 1977, Wood, 179; or rele Se Bank, Marc & ob 3007, Hoag Pa, 205) For example, nes pose ‘nomad ofthe one offal een ora pjesiepa epersnat pe tobe ae srg to the han re pope mo ae ah 0 (esse cate Exercise 261 1m this cont, ket exe Saney Mga’ (1863, 187 expe secs on obaence to ior ich te poke themes famous ad ‘Scores sues cer coe nh of eyeloge To seer tee i bs pes esp, lyme he search atl ‘hmastet shy mee pring nan vestige tees of amen co earings fr othe experen be sv wre nursed semi pif ere hock fo ae se ‘Ney tine be gve srg newer nf, n ve abocks were pen, ade ‘Shur mec aly an atopic’ ofthe expeimase) AS the ‘Sherine popes th expe reed the sabes delver moe ions elec Te acmpce, meee, teste ee ey ant seared nag Whos the sock seed to each al ieee the comple stopped spodig ene Mga’ pinay ease of ieest pede! vari) ws the mgiode of oc hat each subject (ws dane Theater et ee that nly ode oe ‘ec wel bene eagerness rer, cern the hon filo Bian eae peed 2 nmber of ans on hi exper sms eo hh ee he oe of ere sates. Wit eco Fou184 Parc Foe Ising Phenomena thnk the sue’ gener igh hive doo hide of aden? he Se eo “hf aig ry fn win You hk ee mre Males__ Females ‘Ast ure ot, the fae bjs were sabtnialy more bene than nett male ounerprts ines 30% of ender te i ow yo er eahewe e ncio Pring deste stene een aout await nani, id you thease Fate fea sb remote beet tan male suet ease women oa ee hese! oY me compan ‘eat ator Ege iyou wee tens rn ode aon Sem i Ah wn ht aes wh he tie rests of his experment In polo acy the eae ear er inflata were te me bcs wth a ay eae gto amie een the sina lec tpl stk, Now a you ‘now the ctl rey how might you explain he cases? Does thee ‘omer sem nae avs Did you postulate that ween tnd 0 bef agreve an mete pati han en? Tet estance shchag nse Vt tight be higher? Wel aos fel gay elingyo theat , {ove yu ile rss pa. Passe rive tbl ei iy sale ‘et reve oa th un een of te Hi as ‘fay the ml oncame of he exerinen eee aie eof be ct fr woe as al esto tha of ren oes) How Weld You explant? Does eno seem sso mae cbs? XRVE-Te nde ie 185 “This cece esi srsnon med of song he Hing sia, wi coy of reign eh am whi ‘rye ant contain so we tue of jer ex example te Oop ‘hie nr tue ere oppor be ble bat" fn ‘ato nnd whee he ober gop tht ec each suppor the bel tha “sence mas tee gow fer” as trou people init ous ind whichever elt thy ere Pena neupising cn ‘Sn Ofc, erent pent be common senso in cg "Fm he pblon why “common sere expantons ot hat ‘heaton bet hate en te them ol ae we retro te ‘me ee word, they deseo yc te than ey ‘Eero asthe enya oe sh, we cn fs poe 1 ae tip ay res som ie come sense Bena ay ecm in {pou we hae provte-inany of tem comrtony—to aca fr {Dy Scale the Ring le acy, you san ays 2 coms renal pov co “espla” why an ve med te ay Bo iter what he owe ‘Dble 21 Whi Pov in lack Pa “Oxy Common Se “Oatlands” Ver ct = Yaar = Wasa eo ‘cin Doe «neva “i z _tsBrwen : {Aiba Fo © Wir shkespexe ~ Tatu dn aa ya we ES bean ST tito sed i ‘isn186 Par Four ovesieingPenomens ‘cent nin th wimg antsy ene pr “Wool ‘Ceram “ayy Wry nig The Hind asses ight on on of he mos prea cas ef tie ene eld of ppg mel tat ray amos ers” pte! in mae sued tc an inal lange. Sealy ‘She people ew popsapalfsech a eval because erly doc tronics teu, eal areas fp} ‘SitecareRemerbrthac we tpi ear of mack es al fe the fae When ewe in iri ow eld hy nthe at aol fees pest arsine be evar and nese? ta there a aot to the Hindi Rin? Svc and sch (1977) separ ound mete Jt magne ela F the Tso manta of epi Some of the uiecs were tense, ind th stay worked he oer nay ow woul ou epi "These ‘bjt ste tule ack es neal thal ee bjs ‘thohad nor ben naried oan the opps es “Te coisa? Tht ling Bs ca deve you no Beving dat you know meth or cual do However enema eo ee ets {olin he yo mg en es at eval cue fence at {me cen meme dent ee oe jot, apy tr 180) annette so beep Glossary Terms ‘The luming terme or isin) are define othe los: fee tal fate pene varie ‘ine ecinioe fect ce ie Bs Bowtie cnn XVI The ind ae 187 tn Frelicion eel colon ard cal bsegent thee tteorChapter 27 XXVII. The Representativeness Bias Fits and Misfits of Categorization ‘alsa eye ack and ques then192 Pa Five: Oe er aod Flac in Ting Trevi we a een ale up to make fp agen a arcane th do ot lel Gensel t threes or sas on sider the flonase. + Ata teri you haat amount of inet gar ou om {0 tate the night peso, + rig comanitee meeting you maybe egied xpos a. ‘on down lage pa of canner bo ae apg fara Ft aes Ietet poston. “Ina courlig ing. ou mi be apres teak ily eat. ‘ngan ova fom alr poop akow hh you aon ey "+ Wate avenging oun yo at append by + op of sane a ou nnd naniy Sore linn send ey aig deco s rsions (ed cams the dem) woul ine he oporenty 0 com compose {24 senate sno he pes ale ses dt ates rae ew sop nrc, rsp eda cps oe aha of a pose rtcone, td ae & te pine cess ele iving ak al con ‘el soma thee Forboa exons suche eae nga ‘alamo summer Wesnoth tebe ees Yo, er sures ott mee nen shat oad eae sc ‘nos polos hae. Hoth we prec mak cnn he if vaig Spee sf ney Copan ocolpss At Tessa Did enone (0570 thor th peop se stesey amen serene sere, rit ted ones tneccnruming tae te ‘mei cad terrence We abe ‘poe ft shaeas tht wend wae mony wiht $i comeing hs) aly neha nt eso bare cl ped overs hth one ‘una they pt ly eet amaion pce sod tans {2th probe. net wo hey bop equ oe oe sions. On the her hand, hey dos the epee econ a enon Im eee, we deo any ped (ine a Every Donia rae OTs he pe me ay ee eiee oe 1 bd jadgnens, Neverender dc, Nes Sen cen lcci of areas ply cat ap ens enrages mule of costae ad sels cova eran (97,182) seed «mba sch sa sling te msn au ad he cynic ‘Btcathovge VI) "According Twerky and Kahne represent seen scepter Een, lc [pg Se ia song nas een) aa ty Sted slighty more fray, peste a etal fein oe pohly arte i ember of Cate B in lire lps hui ney enmen e een tay cy age pon {Sen ec verso ot ema repent ‘Site evap in sn dng wee ssenpine aera ffimeicamach athe bot web fe phenomena ets in ‘arse eel arts ofthe tty tee = atch we ene thn we ave sues Meme the phtromenon ix we cosine oat on ox common ue of the representatives eric iooles sug pon lng ae ea oe oho si he Srlctsto"ypiak members ft poop. 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