Poirazidis, K. Et Al., 2019. Lesser Spotted Eagle Population Trends and Spatial Use in Respect To Continuous Landscape Changes in Dadia NP in 35 Year
Poirazidis, K. Et Al., 2019. Lesser Spotted Eagle Population Trends and Spatial Use in Respect To Continuous Landscape Changes in Dadia NP in 35 Year
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1
  Department of Environmental Sciences, Ionian University, GR-29100, Panagoula, Zakynthos, Greece; E-mail: [email protected]
2
  WWF Greece, 21 Lempesi Street, GR-11743, Athens, Greece
3
  Department of Forestry and Management of Natural Environment, University of Applied Sciences of Thessaly, Mavromichali
str., 43100, PO Box 254,Karditsa, Greece; E-mail: [email protected]
4
  Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Vienna, Austria; E-mail: [email protected]
5
  Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria
6
  Directorate of Evros Region Forestry Service, Hellenic Republic Decentralized Administration of Macedonia–Thrace, Kanari 12,
GR 68100, Alexadroupolis, Evros, Greece, [email protected]
Abstract: 	 Lesser Spotted Eagle is a medium sized raptor with a stable population within its breeding range.
            Nonetheless, its favourable habitats (a mosaic of forest and low-vegetation forest-openings, often with
            water elements such as small ponds and flowing streams), are suffering from land abandonment as a result
            of abrupt socio-economic changes related to rural depopulation and the decline of traditional agro-silvo-
            pastoral practices. The species’ breeding population in Dadia National Park (Dadia NP) of approximately
            20 pairs, is an important stronghold at the southern fringe of its European breeding range. The breeding
            territories and their spatial distribution trends were studied in Dadia NP for 35 years (1979 to 2012). The
            overall interannual trend was not statistically significant for the population, with a minimum value of 17
            pairs (2001 and 2012) to a maximum of 22 (2005). Despite this long-term stability though, territories’
            distribution in Dadia NP has changed remarkably. During the 1970s, a more uniform and clearly territo-
            rial distribution had been observed in the western part of Dadia NP, the stronghold of the species. It was
            an area characterized predominantly by forests, mixed with small-extension open landscapes, an optimal
            foraging and breeding landscape for the species. In contrast, in the 21st Century the population has shifted
            progressively to the eastern forest lowlands of Dadia NP adjacent to agricultural land, demonstrating a
            clustered distribution with reduced territory distances in an agro-forest area, not considered optimal for
            Lesser Spotted Eagle. This noticeable spatial change could be related to a decline in forest openings and
            habitat mosaics to the western part, as a result of land abandonment. Thus, the most suitable region for the
            species, decreased from 66% in 1979 to 54% in recent years, and specifically in Zone A of the National
            Park the most radical change was observed (from 80% to 53%). In conclusion, increased landscape ho-
            mogeneity and reforestation of open areas could be major threats to the viability of Lesser Spotted Eagle.
            This has forced the species to shift its breeding territories already towards more humanized areas, in a
            more clustered distribution and expose them to human induced risks. Conservation policies should strive
            to increase heterogeneity at the landscape level and decrease the ecological impact of land abandonment.
Key words: Clanga pomarina, Dadia, Greece, landscape change, Maxent, niche shift, space use change
Corresponding author
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Poirazidis K., V. Bontzorlos, S. Schindler & D. Vasilakis
8
      Lesser Spotted Eagle Clanga pomarina Brehm, 1831 (Aves: Accipitridae) in Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli...
explore population trends, b) assess spatial changes      thematic foci were derived from each Landsat satel-
of suitable habitat based mainly on vegetation char-      lite image: a) thematic variable of vegetation den-
acteristics and forest density, c) describe the eco-      sity in three classes: dense forest (80–100%), loose
logical tolerance of the species during this period in    forest (40–80%), open forest (0–40%), based on a
respect to landscape changes through environmen-          hybrid method using vegetation index (Normalized
tal niche models (ENMs hereafter).                        Difference Bare Soil Index) and unsupervised clas-
                                                          sification (ISO-Data) to determine forest densifica-
                                                          tion. Normalized Difference Bare Soil Index was
Materials and Methods                                     calculated as: NDBSI= ((S1 – N))/((S1 + N)), where
In respect to the population monitoring of the spe-       S1 is the shortwave infrared band, with a wave-
cies realized between 1979 and 2000, the population       length between 1.55 and 1.75 μm, and N is near
estimations of the Lesser Spotted Eagle were based        infrared band with wave length between 0.76 and
on the works of Hallman (1979), Vlachos (1989),           0.90 μm. For each thematic class, the percentage of
Adamakopoulos et al. (1995) and after 2000, the           cover was calculated in four different spatial scales
Systematic Raptor Monitoring scheme (SRM here-            (500, 1000, 1500, 2000 m) using a circular mov-
after), which was established in Dadia NP by WWF          ing window, b) four vegetation indices were used:
Greece (Poirazidis et al. 2001) and set the basis         NDVI, MSAVI, EVI, NDMI, all calculated in the
for continuous and detailed monitoring of all rap-        four spatial scales above, and c) a digital elevation
tors in the region, which continues until today (see      model (https://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gdem.asp) was
Poirazidis 2017 for a detailed analysis of moni-          also applied including topographical characteristics
toring results). To explore the population trends of      like terrain roughness, inclination and aspect affect-
Lesser Spotted Eagle, we implemented the non-par-         ing vegetation characteristics and fundamental nest-
ametric and distribution-free test of Mann-Kendall        ing and foraging factors. All variables were calcu-
(MK). The test was applied to the number of annual        lated in a 30 m spatial analysis.
territories to statistically determine whether there            Preliminary modelling was performed for each
was a monotonic upward or downward (increases/            multiscale variable, in order to choose the optimal
decreases) trend over time (Baldwin et al. 2012).         scale based on maximum univariate gain among the
MK tau and p values were calculated, using Kendall        four scales per variable. The initial full model, using
package (McLeod 2015) in R programming lan-               all variables (at the optimal scale for multiscale var-
guage (R Core Team 2017).                                 iables), was pruned by selecting a subset of uncor-
      We used the MaxEnt software (Phillips et al.        related variables based both on Variance Inflation
2006) to create models of a potential suitable habitat    Factor(VIF) criterion (VIF < 10) and pairwise cor-
based mainly on vegetation characteristics. MaxEnt        relation (r < 0.8) using “usdm” package in R envi-
is a general-purpose machine learning technique es-       ronment (Naimi 2015). Response curves of univari-
timating the target species probability distribution      ate models were created for each variable partici-
(statistical model) of maximum entropy (closest to        pating in the prune model, in order to examine how
uniform) based on constant restrictions (constraints)     each one of them affects the species habitat selec-
that are placed by the processed data and by using        tion. The suitability map with a scale that was firstly
presence-only data as a function of explanatory vari-     continuous between 0 and 1, was transformed into
ables (Phillips et al. 2006). In the present study, the   a binary file (presence – absence) according to the
entire landscape was represented by 10.000 random         threshold “Minimum training presence”. According
points with a random seed that were used as pseudo-       to the threshold, all training locations (centre of ter-
absences points. The MaxEnt parameterization (e.g.        ritories) would be correctly classified, as our goal
convergence threshold, regularization parameter λ)        was to predict the suitable area based on all esti-
was set at default values (Phillips & Dudik 2008,         mated territories, indicating the least-suitable envi-
Elith et al. 2011).                                       ronmental conditions (Radosavljevic & Anderson
      The geometric centre of each estimated terri-       2014).
tory for the Lesser Spotted Eagle was used as in-
dependent presence for the years 1979 and 2012 to
explore long-term spatial changes of the suitable
                                                          Results
habitat in Dadia NP. The explanatory variables were       For34 years, since the late 1970’s, when Lesser
based on Landsat images of the closest available          Spotted Eagle monitoring was actually initiated in
date to the population survey (satellite images of        Dadia NP, the species’ numbers appear to be gener-
August for the years 1985 and 2011). The following        ally stable. Since the first estimation, eagle breeding
                                                                                                                9
Poirazidis K., V. Bontzorlos, S. Schindler & D. Vasilakis
numbers were successively estimated by different             from 66% in 1979 to 54% in recent years, whereas
researchers: Hallman (1979) recorded 19 territo-             into Zone A, which is the strictly protected core of
ries, Vlachos (1989) recorded a range of 16–20               the Natura 2000 area in Dadia NP, the most radi-
territories, Adamakopoulos et al. (1995) estimated           cal change was demonstrated (reduction from 80%
a range of 14–17 territories and, since 2000 until re-       in 1979 to 53% in 2011) (Fig. 2). ENMs also indi-
cent years, the long-term SRM has been producing             cate that the current breeding habitat of the eagle in
reliable indices about the species breeding popula-          Dadia NP has lower elevation than in 1979, whereas
tion at similar levels for the years 2001-2005 and           less adjacent dense forest appears in the species’
2012, ranged from 17 to 22 territories (Poirazidis           surroundings in 2012, even within large radius of 2
2017). The change in the territories’ numbers may            km (Fig. 3). In that context, it is also noted that the
demonstrate certain irregular fluctuations (Fig. 1);         species had a clearly narrower ecological niche in
nonetheless, according to Mann Kendal test, which            1979 with a diverse mosaic of suitable habitat ac-
includes a total of eight years of estimation (1979,         cording to MSAVI, whereas in 2012, within even
1989, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012) it over-           larger radius, much more open areas appeared in
all indicates a stable population (tau = 0.046, 2-sid-       its territories, while the species no longer occupied
ed p value = 0.92786).                                       dense forest (Fig. 3).
      Apart from the arithmetic estimations for the
Lesser Spotted Eagle in Dadia NP during the last
25 years, which indicate population stability, there
                                                             Discussion
is a notable spatial change both in horizontal and           Major changes have occurred during the last decades
vertical landscape use. It has been found that while         in the landscape of Dadia NP (Triantakostantis et
only50% of the pairs bred in elevations below 100            al. 2006, Xofis & Poirazidis 2018), including in-
m in the 1970’s, this number has progressively in-           tensification of agriculture, increased forest exploi-
creased since 2001. In addition, the horizontal spa-         tation, abandonment of traditional agricultural prac-
tial use by the Lesser Spotted Eagle with regard             tices and reduction of forest openings. It could be
to its breeding habitats was uniformly distributed           argued that these habitat changes affecting the for-
in Dadia NP in the 1970’s. Since 2000, though the            aging areas of Lesser Spotted Eagle would have af-
population has shifted to breed predominantly in the         fected the species’ population as well. Nonetheless,
lowlands and at the eastern part of Dadia NP (Fig.           the breeding population appears stable during the
2).                                                          last 25 years. On the other hand, an apparent change
      The habitat parameters which created a suitable        has been noted on the spatial distribution of its terri-
landscape for the Lesser Spotted Eagles breeding             tories. An abandonment of “in-forest” breeding ter-
in the western part of Dadia NP decreased overall            ritories has been recorded since the first monitoring
Fig. 1. Breeding densities of Lesser Spotted Eagle in Dadia NP since 1970’s expressed in numbers of occupied territories.
10
      Lesser Spotted Eagle Clanga pomarina Brehm, 1831 (Aves: Accipitridae) in Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli...
                                                                                                              11
Poirazidis K., V. Bontzorlos, S. Schindler & D. Vasilakis
Fig. 3. Environmental niche model results with regard to Lesser Spotted Eagle spatial preferences in respect to eleva-
tion, MSAVI index, forest density and forest openings in 1979 and 2012 in Dadia NP.
12
       Lesser Spotted Eagle Clanga pomarina Brehm, 1831 (Aves: Accipitridae) in Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli...
to be increasing in the region (Poirazidis 2017).                      ronment, Physical Planning and Public Works, Ministry of
Nonetheless, it is possible that the tolerance thresh-                 Agriculture & WWF – Greece, Athens. (In Greek)
old differs between the two eagle species with Lesser            Benton T.G., Vickery J.A. & Wilson J.D. 2003. Farmland
                                                                       biodiversity: is habitat heterogeneity the key? Trends in
Spotted Eagle being more sensitive and susceptible                     Ecology & Evolution 18: 182–188.
to forest homogenization, whereas the existing ter-              BirdLife International 2015. European Red List of birds:
tiary road and fire-break network in Dadia NP may                      Clanga pomarina (Brehm 1831). http://datazone.bird-
be a sufficient ecotone habitat for the foraging re-                   life.org/userfiles/file/Species/erlob/supplementaryp-
quirements of Short-toed Eagle (Poirazidis 2017).                      dfs/22696022_clanga_pomarina.pdf
      Among the reasons behind this slow transfor-               BirdLife International 2016. Clanga pomarina. The IUCN Red
                                                                       List of Threatened Species 2016: e.T22696022A93539187.
mation of the forest into a more homogeneous form,
                                                                       http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2016-3.RLTS.
is also the abandonment of traditional and open                        T22696022A93539187.en.
livestock farming, also recorded in other regions                Baldwin J.D., Bosley J.W., Oberhofer L., Bass OL. & Mealey
(Zakkak et al. 2014). An additional possible threat                    B.K. 2012. Long term changes, 1958–2010, in the repro-
to the Lesser Spotted Eagle population in Dadia NP                     duction of Bald eagles of Florida Bay, Southern Coastal
within the context of landscape homogenization,                        Everglades. Journal of Raptor Research 46(4): 336–348.
may also be the increase of Helianthus farming,                  Carrara E., Arroyo-Rodríguez V., Vega-Rivera J. H., Schon-
                                                                       dube J. E., de Freitas S. M. & Fahrig L. 2015. Impact of
which further decreases agricultural openings to-                      landscape composition and configuration on forest special-
wards massif crop types that reduce farmland biodi-                    ist and generalist bird species in the fragmented Lacandona
versity and the diversity of prey species (Benton et                   rainforest, Mexico. Biological Conservation 184: 117–126.
al. 2003, Väli et al. 2017).                                     Demerdzhiev D. A., Popgeorgiev G.S., Dobrev D.D., Arku-
      Quite controversially, as also debated in                        marev V.S. & Terziev N.G. 2019. Habitat requirements
                                                                       of the Lesser Spotted Eagle Clanga pomarina Brehm,
Poirazidis (2017), while deforestation is a major
                                                                       1831 (Aves: Accipitridae) at the southern periphery of the
problem in many countries (Carrara et al. 2015), the                   distribution range (Southeast Bulgaria). Acta Zoologica
ecosystem of Dadia NP relies on the co-existence of                    Bulgarica, Supplement 14: 35-65.
man, forest, land use and livestock farming through a            Dombrovski V.C. & Ivanovski V.V. 2005. New data on numbers
traditional practice that maintains forest clearings, in               and distribution of birds of prey breeding in Belarus. Acta
order to support a highly diverse landscape and biodi-                 Zoologica Lituanica 15(3): 218-227.
versity. Consequently, the present study and its con-            Elith J., Phillips S.J., Hastie T., Dudík M., Chee Y. E. & Yates
                                                                       C. J. 2011. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecolo-
clusions denote on one hand the importance of raptor                   gists. Diversity and Distributions 17: 43-57.
monitoring in a systematic pattern, which offers deep            Hallmann B. 1979. Guidelines for the conservation of birds
insights in population trends and can be further en-                   of prey in Evros. A report to IUCN/WWF International.
hanced, when combined with spatial analyses includ-                    Project 1684 aimed at the conservation of birds of prey in
ing environmental parameters. In the case of Lesser                    NE Greece. Gland, WWF International, 120 p.
Spotted Eagle in Dadia NP specifically, although its             Kostrzewa A. & Kostrzewa R. 1990. The relationship of spring
                                                                       and summer weather with density and breeding perfor-
numbers remain stable for almost 4 decades, the spe-
                                                                       mance of the Buzzard Buteo buteo, Goshawk Accipiter
cies spatial translocation may pinpoint the beginning                  gentilis and Kestrel Falco tinnunculus. Ibis 132: 550–559.
of a “stress” period for Lesser Spotted Eagle in the             Legakis A. & Maragou P. 2009. The Red Data Book of Threat-
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                                                                 Lõhmus A. & Väli Ü. 1999. Numbers and population dynamics
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atic monitoring conducted through WWF Greece projects for        McLeod A. 2015. R Package “Kendall”. http://www.stats.uwo.
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