MYOPTIONSEDGE.
COM
YES, WE CAN!
TO TRADE EFFECTIVELY WITHOUT CHARTS
I trade without charts!
by Pedro Branco
Last night, after market closed, I was checking my twitter account and a group of
“prophets” were anticipating a market correction next week; another group of
“prophets” state this rally will continue, and market recovery is in! Majority of them
with nice charts full of support and resistance lines, Fibonacci, Elliot Waives,
indicators, … you name it. Like always, I would say majority of those “prophets” have
a negative sentiment; if a correction happens, they will tweet “as I told last week…”.
MYOPTIONSEDGE.COM
The truth is no one can predict market behavior! I started trading trying to predict the
next move but, soon, I understood I am not a good forecaster, like big majority of
people out there!
Hence, I continue to believe in the 2 most probable outcomes for next Monday close.
Both having equal chance to happen. Either it closes green or red! (I would not bet on a
close at the same value of friday close… the chances are minimal!).
That was also the reason why, for several years, I took a different approach on my
trading. In the last 5 years I was focused on volatility trading capturing market value
from VXX structural edge. Recently, I also incorporated indexes and developed
directionless strategies that, under majority of market conditions is delivering
exceptional results (as you may see from my account appreciation – you can find in
public posts here; no need to subscribe!). The Ride Trade is my king of trades and is
delivering exceptional results. It is a consistent trading strategy using longer term
options, but for the ones that prefer a fast strategy I am also trading with success the
SPY Speed Trade.
My focus is to manage risk from each trade as well as the overall options portfolio. Not
looking at charts! Yes, they give me the past performance of the price evolution of an
index or stock. But do not help me to predict the future! Sorry to those technical
traders...
When I am trading, my screen is 70% of the time in the “position statement” and 25% on
strategy analysis on ThinkorSwim platform rather in charts panel! I am looking at the
Greeks of each individual position. All of them are important! Hence, I do not need to
check the markets every hour. Two or three times a day is ok for most of the days. Each
strategy has a set of Greeks that are most important to me! For example, in the Ride
trade, Delta and Theta, as well as its Ratio, are the most relevant!
I always keep Delta as neutral as possible! This is will reduce directional risk. The goal
here is capture options decay. In the Surf Trade, I mainly look for Delta and have it as
much negative as possible under certain parameters.
So, my trading style follows the rule of K.I.S.S (Keep it Stupid and Simple). No fancy
price charts with lines and a lot of indicators! Yes, I can read charts and I look at them,
but I do not base by trades on them! I do not trust the market! It always have a
surprise for us!