Probability
Introduction to Probability & Statistics
Prof. Pritam Ranjan
OM & QT, IIM Indore
Email: [email protected]
Office: A - 102, Phone: 512
Session - 1: Probability: definitions, laws of operations,
examples and applications
Textbook coverage: Chapter 7
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 1/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Understanding probability
What is a probability?
Can we quantify it? How?
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 2/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Understanding probability
Motivating applications
1. What is the probability that a new born child is female?
2. When flipping a fair coin, what is the probability of
getting a head?
3. How likely it is to get a 6 in a roll of a fair die?
4. What is the probability of you getting an A in IPS?
5. What is the probability of me getting a feedback > 9?
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 3/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Understanding probability
Motivating applications
6. When choosing a card one at-a-time, what is the
probability of getting an ACE in the first draw?
7. What is the probability that a breakdown on the
assembly line will interfere with completing the order?
8. What is the probability that an operator at a call center
is able to address the next call?
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 4/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Definitions
We talk about probability of an event
Sample space: Set of all possible outcomes of an experiment: S, Ω
Event: A subset of the sample space: A, B, C , ...
Probability is a set function
Definition (Intuitive) [assumption: all outcomes are equally likely]
λ(A)
P(A) = , ∀A ∈ P(S)
λ(S)
What is λ()?
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 5/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Examples
1. What is the probability that a new born child is female?
2. When flipping a fair coin, what is the probability of getting a head?
[http://www.stat.columbia.edu/∼gelman/research/published/diceRev2.pdf]
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 6/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Law of Large Numbers
What is the Law of Large Numbers (LLN)?
2. When flipping a fair coin, what is the probability of getting a head?
3. When rolling a pair of fair dice, what is the prob. of getting a 7?
4. When choosing a card one at-a-time, what is the probability of
getting an ACE in the first draw?
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 7/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Examples
5. When drawing a five-card hand from an ordinary deck, what is the
probability of getting 2 aces and 3 non-face cards?
6. Birthday problem !!
7. A closet contains n pairs of shoes (i.e., 2n shoes). If 2r shoes are
chosen at random (with 2r < n), find the probability of getting
(a) no complete pair among them?
(b) exactly one complete pair among them?
Counting problems - a huge class (Ross, Feller, etc.)
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 8/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Definitions
Definition (axiomatic): Any set function P that satisfies the
following three axioms is called a probability.
1 P(A) ≥ 0 for all A
2 P(S) = 1
3 If A1 , A2 , ... are disjoint events then
P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ) = P(A1 ) + P(A2 ) + · · ·
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 9/20
Motivating examples
Probability Definitions
Laws of Probability
Examples
8. Flip a coin until you get a head. What is the probability that
exactly four flips are required?
9. (Eg 7.1) On 95% of days, everything on the assembly line runs as
designed without a hitch. What is the the probability that the
assembly line will breakdown at least once in the next five days?
[Two events A and B are independent iff P(A ∩ B) = P(A) · P(B)]
Prof. Pritam Ranjan IPS (July 5, 2017) 10/20
