Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

Bertus F. Jeronimus1,2*♪

1
Department of Developmental Psychology, Faculty of Social and Behavioural sciences,
Groningen, University of Groningen, The Netherlands.
2
Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), Department of
Psychiatry, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The
Netherlands
*
[email protected],
♪
Supported by a NWO Veni grant #016.195.405.

This book is a work in progress and shall be improved, expanded, and polished. Suggestions can
be emailed to [email protected].
Cite as: Jeronimus, B.F. (2020). Personality and the Coronavirus Covid-19 Pandemic.
University of Groningen Press. https://www.doi.org/10.21827/5ed9ebc01d65f

Abstract
The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic was a severe global
health emergency and psychosocial shock event. All humans were affected via the prolonged
social mitigation measures and the disaster chain of secondary stressors including the most
severe economic meltdown in a century. The coronavirus pandemic and social mitigation
measures changed our lives, accelerated societal transformations, and influenced our values,
politics, and available resources. The coronavirus pandemic represents a node in time that can be
leveraged to compare contexts and cultures. Media provided an unprecedented coverage of the
psychosocial and health responses and consequences and this natural language of our mainstream
media (MSM) combined with academic studies may help us to understand how the coronavirus
pandemic impacted people differently across age, socioeconomic status, and personality
gradients (e.g., via threat and control), and across gender, cultures, and around the globe, as
evident in our emotions (anxiety, anger versus calm) and behaviors such as mobility and policy
adherence. The role of individual action in infection transmission binds the pandemic to
emotional, social and personality theories (i.e., individual differences in what we feel, think,
want, need, and do), including interpersonal theory and the behavioral immune system. This
book describes the coronavirus pandemic as a stressful life event and natural experiment in
which the unfolding events over 2020 are connected to emotional, somatic, and mental health
responses, and differences in personality, resilience, and regional infection and mortality rates.
Over the next years we shall witness how individuals and societies managed and whether the
psychosocial and health responses persist and we became slightly more introverted, risk aversive,
and collectivistic.

Keywords: Personality, Health, Happiness, The Big Five, Disasters, Resilience, Secondary
stress, Emotions, Well-being, Societies, Government, Psychopathology, Anxiety, Depression,
Personality theory, Personality principles, Behavioral immune system.

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

“A pestilence does not have human dimensions, so people tell Corona Covid-19 pandemic1
SARS-CoV-2 (see global spread)
themselves that it is unreal, that it is a bad dream that will end.” symptoms (Sx) often appear 6 days after
infection (range 2-12 days)2 and were highly
Albert Camus, 1947, in The Plague. variable, with 80% showing only mild to
moderate Sx (fever, dry cough, sore throat,
myalgia, and fatigue), and 20-40% did not
notice their infection (under the radar), while
The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is a severe ~20% required (hospital) care, and 5%
acute respiratory syndrome that became pandemic over 2020 resulting became very sick, e.g. respiratory or organ
failure or septic shock. Case fatality ratio
in the biggest public health emergency since the second world war (CFR) was 0.1-2%, typically on day 18 after
infection. CFR up to 6% when the health care
(WW2).1,2 Covid-19 washed through our societies at lightning speed system overflooded (e.g., parts of IT, ES,
due to human social connectedness and air travel (around the world in USA). Without measures most people
infected ≤2.5 others (basic reproduction
72 hours), and despite all our efforts to stop it. The coronavirus number, R0= 1.4 to 2.5 [flu R0= 1.3, measles
pandemic was a disaster chain of human infection, social distancing, R0= 18]), typically adults, and median age of
mortality cases ~84 years (range= 63-95), and
economic meltdown, riots, a second wave, and vaccines. This ~70% male. Children rarely showed Covid-
powerful natural experiment enables us to study how individual, 19, teens (CFR= 0.007%), 20s (0.03%), 30s
(0.08%), 40s (0.16%), 50s (0.60%), but 60s
societal, and institutional and government systems responded to a (1.93%), 70s (4.28%), and 80s (7.80%). High
severe external psychosocial shock. mortality for people on ventilators (CN 80%;
UK, 65%; IT 50%; NL 30%), with often
The key role of individual action in virus infections binds the insufficient intensive care slots availability.
coronavirus to social and personality psychology, via differences in SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic virus that spread
across all climate zones and continents,
what we feel, think, want, need, and do.3 The social, psychological, jumping between various animals and
political, cultural, and economic consequences were beyond anything humans. Antibodies peak at day 28 after
infection. On January 19th (200119) there
experienced in a generation. This coronavirus pandemic was a were 100 official cases, up to 1000 (1k,
transformative experience that connected all humans around the globe 200124), 50k (200212), 100k (200306), 500k
(200326) 700k (200329), 900k (200401), one
in stress, personal threat, ambiguity, social isolation, and the most million (1 MM, 200401), 3 MM (200427), 10
MM cases and >500k death (200628), and 20
severe global economic recession in a century, which shall have a MM + 743k (200811) and the real numbers
lasting impact on our lives.4 were undoubtedly higher.
Humankind tracked the unfolding pandemic via a continuous
(24/7) stream of situation updates, victim counts, policy decisions, their meaning and
consequences, demonstrations, and various theories on the factors, contexts, and political
priorities that allowed Covid-19 to flare up and spread so rapidly.5 Global variation in virus
transmission and healthcare system collapse (and their negative consequences) can inform us on
the role of culture, context, and personality. Societal shock often results in a situation of flux in
which changes become more likely, and while in many places solidarity increased, other people
protected the familiar (via “us versus them”), an ingroup versus outgroup dynamic that even
occurred in the face of a shared threat. The “rally around the flag effect” of initial massive
government support in response to epidemics soon fades into
blaming, stigmatization and politicizing, a discourse that typically “I occasionally think of how quickly our
exploits existing social divisions (e.g., race, ethnicity, class, political differences world wide would vanish if we
6 were facing an alien threat from outside
orientation). Furthermore, governments who impose interventions
this world,” Ronald Reagan, USA
on people without power or privilige tend to fuel a dynamic of social
president, in his address to the U.N.
conflict (e.g., quarantine or compulsory vacciation). And while General Assembly in the Fall of 1987.

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

conservative reflexes are fast, over time people will take their momentum to fight for change,
equality, and justice.7

Foreword
This book connects events over 2020 to differences and changes in human emotions (e.g.,
anxiety, anger, frustration, fatigue), health, well-being and happiness, personality, secondary
stress, mortality, resilience, and values (such as the unfolding discourse on individual freedom
versus public health), politics, health policies, and the acceleration of ongoing societal changes
(meso and macro, such as privitization and gender equality).8,9 I was mesmerized by the rapid
changes in behavior during the coronavirus pandemic (our societal responses) and the intensely
debated social distancing measures and their consequences. This book emerged over the spring
of 2020 as a personal report on the unfolding Covid-19 pandemic from a Dutch perspective, as
an early effort to co-author our subjective reality.10,11
Historians write the war, they say, as they order and select information and sources. This
book is geographically restricted to the Netherlands, and our situation is contextualized using
reports from Europe and the United States of America (USA), because I lacked the resources and
understanding to do justice to Asian, African, and South-American experiences (although
examples shall be mentioned). Most information did not reach me.12 We craft stories to aid our
thinking, and this is written on the fly over 2020. Data were primarily derived from the
mainstream media (MSM), scientific papers, and the PsyCorona study, which tracked the
unfolding Covid-19 pandemic across the globe (in 115 countries).13 This PsyCorona
questionnaire was also integrated into the HowNutsAreTheDutch (HND) platform (#28) which
enabled me to use personality data from the preceding decade.14 This book concludes with an
exploration of how the coronavirus pandemic connects to our shared civic mythology, an
evolving tapestry of stories to understand threathening or chaotic natural forces.
Over the past millenia epidemics accelerates societal changes, and so will coronavirus.
Infectious diseases left their mark on our societal structures, cultural values, and public health
(medicine) around the globe, and gave rise to flight and mass hysteria, fear and anxiety,
scapegoating, riots, outbursts of religiosity, intellectual disorientation, and propelled the arts and
sciences, but also changed international politics and the fate of political regimes.15 When we aim
to understand people and societies, pandemics are equally important as wars, revolutions,
economic crises, and demographic changes.16 Historical examples include the Antonine
pandemic (a.k.a. Plague of Galen), a newly emerged infectious disease (smallpox) that rampaged
Rome and killed 10% of the population (165-180 ACE, ~75 MM died), and catalysed the fall of
Rome.17 The Black Death killed half of the Chinese population (1331) and when it reached
Europe a third of the population died (1347-1351), which ended rigid social hierarchies such as
“feudalism” and stimulated the emergence of governments that had the power and organization
to enforce prevention strategies (14-18th century).18 The 1918 Influenza pandemic (Spanish Flu)
killed more people than the Great War between 1914-18 (WW1), and SARS-CoV-2 even more.19
Indeed, over the 20th century, the bloodiest in human history, up to 200 MM citizens died as a

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

result of warfare, but measles killed about the same number, and inflenza a bit more, while
smallpox killed up to 500 MM.20

Book organization
This book is organized over seven sections:
1. Virus emergence (chapters #1-3) and the unfolding Covid-19 pandemic disaster chain.
2. First response in terms of social distancing (#4) and societal shock (#5) and the
subsequent economic meltdown (#6) and their psychological (#5, #8-9) and societal
sequalae (#11-12), from public protests to exit of lockdown (#7) during virus peak.
3. Theories and topics (#13-24) that inform and elaborate on observations in the first
chapters (#1-12) with a focus on personality concepts, principles and theories (#22) that
should predict and help us understand variance in outcome scenarios of the Covid-19
pandemic (#25). This third section also covers the global debate about whether various
lockdown responses and their psychological and economic consequences were not more
harmful than the outcomes of Covid-19 itself (see #8 and #14).
4. Methods including effect sizes of interest (#26) and cohort descriptors to examine and
understand outcome differences along the lifespan (#27), as well as the
HowNutsAreTheDutch (HND) crowdsourcing platform (#28) with pre-2020 baseline
measures and the PsyCorona study (#29) which provided the data on emotions, beliefs,
efficacy, values, needs, and behavioral self-reports to describe the responses (#5, #28).21
5. A review of studies on personality differences and covid-19 outcomes (#31).
6. The integration of the Covid-19 pandemic into self-narratives and understanding of our
sociocultural surroundings (#32-33).
7. An integrative summary and conclusion (#34).

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 Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

Table 1. Index
Part # Topic Pages Figure Table
I Virus 1 The unfolding covid-19 pandemic
2 Coronavirus as a natural experiment
3 Maximum mimimorum
II Response 4 Social mitigation strategies
5 Societal shock response: Emotion and health
6 The Great Lockdown: An economic meltdown
7 Exit strategies
8 Moral outrage
9 Thought problems: Paranoia and complots
10 Individual coping
11 Societal changes
12 Personality and value changes
III Theory 13 Cultural differences in coping with coronavirus
14 Price of better safe than sorry
15 Vicarious dangers
16 Secondary stress
17 Personal space zones
18 Bioecological systems theory
19 Social structure
20 Behavioral immune system
21 Evolutionary Psychology
22 Personality concepts, principles, and theories
23 National, cohort, and gender differences
24 Personality and Illness
IV Methods 25 Forecasting Covid-19 pandemic outcomes
26 Smallest effect size of interest
27 Age and cohort differences
28 The HowNutsAreTheDutch (HND) study
29 The PsyCorona study
30 Review methods
V Results 31 Personality and the Covid-19 Pandemic
32 A narrative perspective
33 The killer germ genre
VII Conclusion 34 Summary and discussion

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

Introduction

“And I looked, and behold, an ashen (pale greenish gray) horse (like a corpse, representing death
and pestilence); and its rider’s name was Death (Thanatos); and Hell (Hades, the realm of the
dead) was following with him. They were given authority and power over a fourth part of the
earth, to kill with the sword and with famine and with plague (pestilence, disease) and by the
wild beasts of the Earth.” Revelation 6:7-8, Bible.

Salient Coronavirus Pandemic Characteristics

The Coronavirus 2019 pandemic was a large-scale disruptive and stressful disaster event that
pushed most humans outside their usual range of experience. All humans were vulnerable,
independent of age, gender, professions, or nationality, as SARS-CoV-2 ignored political and
geographical boundaries while it rode with us.22 Control over coronavirus required substantial
readjustment efforts at the individual, societal, and international level. Various physical
distancing measures were implemented, which disrupted day-to-day routines and the dynamic
equilibrium between our various social roles as parent, worker, friend, neighbour and citizen.
The changes in our social networks and societies made the coronavirus pandemic as much a
social event as it was physical. The consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and expected and
desired societal changes must have been discussed in almost every home around the globe.

Next to worry many people also experienced sweeping damage and hardship in the range from
severe illness and mortality (such as elderly, minorities, and citizens with chronic diseases), to
those who grieved their beloved, and citizens who lost their job or company. The social
lockdown triggered the most severe economic meltdown in a century (the “Great Lockdown”),
with a surge in unemployment, bankruptcy, and national debt. The coronavirus pandemic fulfils
all conventional disaster criteria and disaster studies can help us to understand and contextualize
the event chain over 2020.23 The study of how differences in individual action influences the
unfolding of the coronavirus pandemic and our appreciation of the power of context may help us
to better understand threats like climate change.24

The 2020 coronavirus pandemic showed substantial overlap with historical epidemics, but also
showed some more unique characteristic. One unique characteristic is the broad spectrum of
clinical outcomes after infection with SARS-CoV-2, as 20% to 40% of population did not notice
symptoms, which allowed for its rapid and undetectable spreading, to a minority for whom an
infection was a death sentence, a strategy that is comparable to some influenza viruses (but
unlike SARS-CoV-1 and MERS).25 Coronavirus was highly unpredictable over 2020.
Second, the coronavirus pandemic unfolded slowly as a disaster chain via virus
emergence, recognition of the global cataclysm, the first national infection, societal lockdown,
protests and riots, economic meltdown, and second waves, to the introduction of vaccines.

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

Third, this unfolding coronapandemic was covered in a massive and continous global
news cycle with new data, interpretations, consequences, and globalized protests against physical
distancing (#StopTheLockdown, 05/20), racism (#BlackLivesMatter, 06/20), new coronavirus
policies and legislation (QAnon #VirusWaanzin, 07/20), and the meat industry and abattoirs as a
source of zoonotic viruses and infections.26 This book taps into these international conversations.

More theoretical questions include when the coronavirus pandemic ends.27 Is that after our
anxiety and behaviors receded? (psychological and sociological perspective). When the infection
rates and mortality drop below a certain level? (public health and medicine). When all
socioeconomic and secondary health consequences are resolved? (a historical end). Some
consequences may last a lifetime, as they lead to systematic changes and continuities in how we
live our individual lives.28 Many events and polls and studies of population level emotions,
stress, and mental health and societal responses emerged, and some are synthesized to give an
impression of the coronavirus pandemic over 2020. The absence of a clear ending of the
coronavirus pandemic may underlay the surprising scarcity of public emotions and collective
grief over the spring of 2020 in the Netherlands (#5), and the “return of the repressed” neurosis
within 8-12 weeks, or the theory that the energy of thwarted goals became channelled via
demonstrations and aggression (cq. Freud, see #3 for an elaboration).
The complexities and many unknowns over the first months of 2020 and associated
political responses elicited more tension in people who struggled with social change and
distancing policies, and many citizens felt atracted to the clear and more coherent conspiracy
theories to explain the world (#9). In cognitive psychology this unfolding coronavirus pandemic
over the spring of 2020 is called a “wicked domain problem” because the game rules are unclear
and incomplete, history may repeat itself (what happened during SARS?) or not, and feedback on
the severity of the situation and policy effects was often delayed, inaccurate, or both.29 A typical
emergency room is actually designed to cope with this wicked problem category. Doctors and
nurses treat individuals with problems they do not understanding but they still have to respond,
thus to learn beyond practice.30 The Dutch prime minister Rutte described called this having 50%
of the information to decide for 100%.

Fortune favors a Prepared Mind

Fortuna (Isis) is the goddess of luck and fortune, a positive force (although fickle and
uncertain) that carries the Cornucopia (horn of plenty). Fortuna was personified by the
turning wheel of Fortune and blindfolded (but without the balance of Lady Justice), to
show the role of chance, as the wheel could go down towards disaster.31 Fortuna was
closely tied to Virtues or character strengths; public officials without virtues invited
Fortuna Mala (ill-fortune) on themselves and their societies. Handling pandemics (prophylaxis
politica) was therefore a primary task of the governments that became stronger over the 14th
century in part because bundled authority (power and resources) was necessary to protect
citizens against virus epidemics by enforced social distancing strategies (isolation of the sick,

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

face masks, blockages) and balancing the various societal interests and the distribution of
damages (#3).32 There are many historical parallels to 2020.
Historically, pandemics are seldom predicted before the first human infections emerged,
or at least caught most authorities by surprise, as the first threathening signs are typically missed,
misunderstood, or ignored.33 Unprepared governments often fuel the confusion and chaos with
sudden improvisation, which often worsened the outcomes of an epidemic, or national leaders
did absolutely nothing.34 Following this tradition, the 2019 coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) took
most people, governments, and institutions by surprise, despite being our fifth pandemic over
the past two decades, after SARS (2002), Swine flu (2009), MERS (2012), “I would view it as something
and Ebola (2014), next to other severe epidemics around the globe (e.g., five that just surprised the whole
35 world (…) nobody knew there
with H7N9 between 2013-2017). Saliently, such infections happen every would be a pandemic or
two years and every 4-5 years one becomes a pandemic.36 The human habit of epidemic of this proportion.”
“I just think this is something
being surprised is a key psychological mechanism that is not specific to … that you can never really
viruses (e.g., the global economic crisis of 2008 was also fairly unexpected, think is going to happen.”
Donald Trump, 200324, USA.
just as the consequences of smoking).37
Italian cities and the Dutch Republic had developed effective and systematic strategies
that kept plague pandemics outside their borders over the 17th century.38 This idea that risks
deserve systematic appraisal and monitoring resurfaced in contemporary politics after the H5N1
2005 avian influenza. The United Nations (UN) had warned the world in 2005 that unchecked
spreading of less pathogenic strains of flu had killed 1.1 MM in 1957 and 1 MM in 1968, and
that H5N1 was considerably more lethal and ≥150 MM people could die.39 Also the World
Health Organization (WHO) and a longlist of expert virologists, epidemiologists and ecologists
continued to warn citizens that Virus X was inevitable and could emerge every moment.40 At
TED-X, Bill Gates (2015) identified infectious viruses (e.g., influenza H1N1) as humanities
greatest threat to the lives of millions of people (rather than a nuclear war). While humanity still
has no proper countermeasures available infectious diseases that emerged fairly recently
including Ebola, HIV, SARS, Zika, and Rift Valley Fever (WHO, 2018), and such infections
keep emerging at an accelarated rate.41
The handling of Ebola had illustrated our poor international collaboration and public
health and biomedical defenses.42 Moreover, the 2002 coronavirus pandemic had reappeared
four times (SARS-CoV 2002-04, CFR= 15%) after the first wave in july 2003, and three times
due to laboratory accidents in Singapore and Chinese Taipei, and once in Southern China
(WHO). A fourth outbreak remains undetermined but probably had a zoonotic origin (#1).
Strong human factors in disasters and epidemics such as ignorance/negligence of social strategies
and poor government handling have historically been a source of citizen worry and anger.43 In
short, the global response to the 2019 coronapandemic illustrated how surprisingly few countries
combined (I) practical pandemic emergency plans (societal organization and mitigation policies)
with (II) a bureaucratic capacity to enact them and (III) a preparatory stockpile of medical
resources.44

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

Most nations responded to Covid-19 as had been done after SARS (2002-04), H5N1
avian influenza (2005), MERS-CoV (2012) or Ebola (2014) emerged; first people panick, and
then we aim to slow the virus spreading to allow scientists to race and develop a vaccine.45 This
is not a plan.46 The prevention of such zoonotic disease outbreaks costs an estimated 20-30
billion dollars annually, but would also protect the last pristine forests and wildlife, which would
balance fairly agains the >8 trillion dollars in losses we had already incurred halfway 2020 due to
the coronavirus pandemic alone, while we left everybody vulnerable.47 Reportedly, this virus
prevention program and protection of wildlife would costs <2% of the annual military spending
by the top 10 militarized countries in the world.48 It remains a riddle why humans do not
properly prepare themselves for a pandemic that is likely to emerge every decade, or climate
change for that matter, while we are willing to build costly infrastructure to protect ourselves
against floods that happen only once every millenium at best (e.g., Dutch Deltaworks).49

Pandemic Playbook
In the wake of a severe epidemic, nations engage in preparation efforts and craft emergency
plans and coordinative agencies and laboratories. Once the emergency recedes, however, and
fear subsides, citizens and governments typically slash these funds and disband the agencies.50
Western societies kept alternating between feat and famine over the centuries (Lady Fortuna), in
a cyclic pattern of panick and societal amnesia.51 Belgium bought a strategic stock of face masks
in response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (6 million (MM) of the type FFP2, see #4), for example,
which they destroyed after expiration (2015-2019), but never replaced, to safe some money.52
During the 2016 Ebola outbreak the USA National Security Council (NSC) developed the
“Whitehouse Pandemic Playbook” (NSC, 2013), essentially a timeline to procure protective
equipment, stockpile emergency resources, and a manual to organize virus tracking and effective
testing (69 pages with questions and decisions). After the Trump administration entered the
white house this Pandemic Playbook was helved and the NSC pandemic unit disbanded (in
2018).53 Trump said the coronavirus “came out of nowhere” and “blindsided the world” and
asked his public rethorically “who would have thought”, while some experts shook their heads in
disbelief and the coronavirus spiraled out of control.54
In response to SARS the WHO (2015) produced a “Global Influenza Preparedness
Plan” with guidelines and rapid response capabilities and the Global Influenza Surveillance and
Response System (GISRS), which included 6 WHO Collaborating Centers for Reference and
Research on Influenza (AU, CN, JP, UK, US) and 143 national influenza centers in 114 WHO
member states. The European Union (EU) continously planned, excercised, and revised their
pandemic preparedness and operational response plans, under auspice of the EU agency
European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Most European countries had
updated their preparatory influenza pandemic plans (see list) such as the Dutch “Influenza
Operational Scenario” (2014). In 2018 the Netherlands concluded that our intensive care
capacities would not withstand the pandemic that could be expected this decade, but nothing had
been done when Covid-19 struck in 2020, and also the best of Europe and the USA proved

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 Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

utterly unprepared. We can conclude that a prudent response is not impeded by a shortage of
plans and response centers, but by a lack of bureaucratic capacity, political priorities (e.g.,
economy, #6), and failure to prepare the medical resource kits.55

The Herald: Our Call to Adventure

Prominent experts such as David Quammen (2012) had warned the public that a dangerous new
coronavirus was likely to emerge from the bat reservoir on a wet marked in the South of China,
given the previous infections and the reasons they emerge (#1/Zoonose). In november 2019 the
USA military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) reported the emergence of a
contagion that was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, based on changes in population
patterns of life and businesses (on satellite images) and communication about threat (via wire
and computer intercepts).56 The NCMI raised alarm because this out-of-control disease posed a
serious threat to USA forces in Asia, and to help USA government agencies to activate the
pandemic defensive systems (pandemic playbook) to prepare for a crisis poised to come home,
and organize containment strategies.57 In several briefings of the Defense Intelligence Agency
(Pentagon and White house) over december 2019 and january 2020 the NCMI report has been
mentioned, including the statement that China’s leadership acknowledged the epidemic was out
of control.58 Nothing happened.
When the first SARS (2002-2004) cases emerged in Guangdong (in Foshan city, 16-11-
2002), a Chinese expert report circulated among Chinese mainland authorities (2003-0123). This
report reached Hong Kong authorities and the WHO three weeks later (030210).59 It took three
months after the identification of the index case of SARS before the WHO was informed. To
solve this problem Chinese officials developed an alarm system with automatic reporting to
Beijing. When the first patients with a mysterious pneumonia emerged in Wuhan, however, the
doctors reported to local health officials instead, who, in fear, withheld this information from the
national reporting system and Beijing, which delayed the response.60 Again. The central
authorities first learned about the outbreak after local whistle-blowers leaked two internal
documents online.61 In the meantime the outbreak had spread substantially. In sum, the
combination of high quality intelligence and emergency scripts and response systems and centers
remain useless if officials do not act on them. Fortuna Mala.

Table 2. Sample of pathogens and characteristics that would determine government response
Pathogen Primary mode of transmission Clinical Medical counter Transport or Pandemic potential
among people Severity measures Treat in place
Ebola virus Direct contact with bodily fluids High Some Typically Low, assuming access
or infected, contaminated surfaces experimental transport to healthcare
MERS- Close contact, respiratory Can be high, especially No Treat in place Unknown
CoV secretions in those with underlying
conditions
Influenza Respiratory secretions, droplets, Can be high, especially Yes, but strain- Treat in place High for a novel strain
contact with contaminated naïve populations or in specific vaccine adapted to humans
surfaces those with underlying must be
conditions produced
Note. Illustration from the Pandemic Playbook (NSC, 2013, Table 3, page 10).

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

Consistent Communication
The coronavirus pandemic was an intensely public event and communication from leaders is
critical during a public health crises (consistency, facts, reality).62 Some national leaders
panicked and failed in the face of this infectious pandemic.63 China silenced doctors who tried to
raise alarms about coronavirus which allowed it to escape from Wuhan.64 The USA president
Trump spent all of january and february claiming the coronavirus pandemic would miraculously
disappear, and then rhetorically alternated between Covid-19 as a hoax (200228, “it’s going to be
just fine”, and “everything is under control” 200803) and the perspective that “the [coronavirus]
outbreak hit the USA harder than the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor in WW2 and the 9/11
attacks” (200506).65 Trump “did not know people died from the flu” (200306) even though his
own grandfather died due to the 1918 influenza pandemic.66 After Trump suggested that
injecting disinfectant into the body could help to treat Covid-19 (200423) a substantial number of
Americans experimented with disinfectants in the hope to protect themselves against Covid-19
(e.g., ingesting it or applying it on their skin).67 In a comparative spirit the Brazilian president
Bolsanaro described Covid-19 as “a flu” and “fake news”. The Belarusian dictator Loekasjenko
described coronavirus as a psychosis best cured with vodka and hard work, and Belarus
continued without a lockdown, which effectively ended his dictatorship over the summer.68 All
nine ministers of public health in Belgium failed to take the center stage and guide the country.69
In Belgium politicians hided behind the virologists, who were contradictory in their advices.70 In
Sweden one head epidemiologist communicated the policies, which did not protect them either.
Some national leaders became an inspiration to the world, including the prime minister
Jacinda Adhern of New Zealand and president Tsai Ing-Wen of Taiwan.71 The German counselor
Angela Merkel described the pandemic as the biggest challenge in the history of the EU
(200406) and showed how prepared countries handled a coronavirus pandemic, communicated
realistically and effectively to their citizens, and took care of Dutch patients on their intensive
care units (for free).72 The Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte showed how a strategy of flexibility
and individual responsibility kept our economy fairly steady while the social welfare system
prevented most societal unrest, as we shall see throughout this book. The first basic public health
advice to governments is open and consistent communication (as outlined in the CDC pandemic
playbook). But when the knowledge of the coronavirus is evolving in “the fog of war”, it is
difficult to communicate consistently, and the honesty to be open about what you don’t know
and correct your policies when new information emerges requires authorities to be humble and
cautious.
Initially experts did not know that the coronavirus could be transmitted by people without
symptoms (asymptomatic infection).73 Over the spring surfaces were seen as a potent mode of
virus transmission, and many people washed their hands excessively and refused to touch
elevator buttons, packages and groceries. Many notions came out of lockdown over may 2020
and superspreader events and airborn (aerosol) transmission became a prominent vector in the
public discourse (#1). Many citizens did not understand whether the public message was to
flatten the curve (which would justify a temporary lockdown to enable authorities to organize

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

their systems [i.e. hospitals, major infection source tracing, quarantines]), or whether the
government aimed for herd immunity or virus supression.74 Testing took multiple days over the
spring in many countries, which reduced the effectively substantially. The stay-at-home orders in
the USA kept 50% at home at best while in many places in Europe ~80% stayed at home. Other
states reopened more quickly than may have been warranted. More firm lockdowns and state-
travel restrictions would have prevented the spread of the coronavirus, from people who fled
from Lobardy throughour Italy, or citizens from New York to travel to their holidays homes
(e.g., in Florida), and spread the coronavirus. This is described in the journal of the plague year
2020 in chapter 1 (#1).75

Changing who we are

In march 2020 I expected the coronavirus pandemic to trigger small but lasting changes in our
personalities as our patterned feelings, thoughts, needs, and behaviors, and how we understand,
play, consume, and connect in our worlds. Such modest personality changes might persist over
the next decades and become ingrained in our generations and the stories and myths that we
collectively weave to understand our place in the world.76 In march 2020 I expected the global
world population to become slightly more introverted, private, and more risk-aversive, and to
develop a higher standard for hygiene, among others.77 This is not a given insofar that the
paradoxical theory of personality coherence would predict more stable (inert) personalities
over 2020 in the context of marked social discontinuity or profound discontinuity in the personal
life space.78 During this most severe pandemic in a century many of us took a moment to review
exactly who and what we are, and what we needed for our well-being.
If we think of society as a dynamic system the coronavirus triggers a social discontinuity
that makes various aspects of our lives and societies temporally more fluid and changeable than
normal.79 The coronavirus pandemic may spur a great deal of emotional movement, in all
directions (e.g., more divorces and more marriages and babies).80 Epidemics can help politicians
to construct an imperative for change and crisis narrative that attributes responsibility to a failing
system in need of change (and actors who normally resist change), and the stress and severity
and urgency of the situation may then induce reform.81 This has been observed during various
discrete societal Revolutions in modernity (e.g., 1688, 1774, 1789, 1791, 1911, 1917, 1989) and
more discretely the Industrial, Demographic, and Happiness revolutions and associated quantum
leaps in the human condition.82
The coronavirus pandemic is going to influence different societies and human
generations very differently (#27). For example, emergent adults may be forced to mature faster
in a world that feels deprived of the necessary social roles (e.g., as a worker or parent) and the
literature suggests it shall be difficult to catch up later. Young adults are already less likely to be
married, have children, or own a house, than citizens of a similar age in decades past.83 The
coronavirus crisis accelerated several societal developments, such as the generational gap in both
income and wealth (#6) and the increasing privatization of our lives (#4), as outlined throughout
this book.84 The distribution of risk was also different, with younsters a factor 1000 less

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

vulerable than elderly (age 65+). The social impact of the coronavirus pandemic shall only
become evident two or more years in the future, when the pandemic may have been fought off
successfully (or became part of life), and the economy is growing again.85
Some nations were well-prepared while other countries including the Neterlands had little
experience with natural disasters, resulting in less authoritarian governments and citizens with
loose norms, who primarily corrected one another indirectly (via gossip).86 Dutch citizens
became confronted with an unusually visible authority over 2020, via rules like physical
distancing, the face masks in public transport, and many other corona measures.87 Paradoxically,
the Dutch citizens who protested against the measures because they felt restricted in their
freedom and did not follow them, created a situation in which the measures ruled their lives
much longer.

Disaster characteristics
Disasters differ in many aspects including in their type (e.g., natural or manmade), location
(developed versus developing countries), in victims (or population frames [age/gender/SES] that
are hit hardest), in intensity (level of life threat) and exposure frequency (single versus repeated
exposure) and many other social, medical, and economic factors, as outlined in this book.88 A
careful description of the coronavirus pandemic is crucial to understand processes that underlie
outcome differences between various disaster events with overlapping characteristics, such as the
1918 Influenza Pandemic (Spanish Flu, 1918-19), the Big Depression (1930s), WW2 (1939-45),
Chernobyl (1986), US 9/11 (2001), SARS (2002-04), Fukushima (2011), MERS (2012-2018),
and Ebola and bubonic Plague (both ongoing). These experiences all required substantial
individual and societal readjustment (as reflected in unmet needs and somatic and mental health
problems) and personal change (#5, 9-12).

Humans are an adaptable species

Every day severe disasters happen around the globe. Their annual number is one the rise, as well
as their impact on our increasingly globalized world, because disasters are inseparably linked to
population growth, ecological disturbances, resource depletion, wealth distribution, urbanization,
costly infrastructure, and migration patterns.89 Over the course of a normal lifespan about 20% of
all humans around the globe experience a major disaster event and 40-80% ≥1 major
(potentially) traumatic event, while almost all humans experience bereavement.90 Periods of
stress, trauma and loss have a central role in the stories we tell about ourselves and our lives (are
often “turning points”). Disasters may provide us with a deeper understanding of the proceses
that shape the marked variation in adaptability of both humans and societies, and even help to
improve our health, well-being, and clinical interventions.91
In the aftermath of a disaster most people experience a transient period of distress (often
weeks to months but <2 years) before they regain their psychological equilibrium and continue a
stable trajectory of healthy functioning and resilience.92 Typically about 20-30% of exposed
populations develop more chronic problems.93 Resilience is the norm (see #10). This book

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

explores how resilience factors and social infrastructure can buffer us against he risk and distress
associated with the coronavirus pandemic, as this knowledge may help us to prepare for the
extreme weather due to climate change and the next series of pandemics that shall emerge this
century.

Exponential growth: The riddle of the water lilies

Many humans misunderstood the arms-race with Covid-19 because they grapple with the
concept of exponential growth. Two examples of this process may help to illustrate this abstract
power. The first example is known as the riddle of the water lilies. In this story you imagine the
growth of a patch of water lilies in a pond, which doubles in size every day, and covers the entire
lake in 24 days. Then when is half of the lake’s surface covered? The answer is day 23.94 A
second example is when a football stadium is filled with raindrops, and every second the number
of drops doubles.95 The first drop falls on second 1, two drops at second 2, and 4 drops on second
3. How long would it take to fill the stadium? Well, around second 43 you are staring at a small
puddle of water in the middle of the stadium, at second 46 you start to realise what is happening,
at second 55 the stadium is half full and after 56 seconds it pours over the roof.
In other words, the early response window to coronairus was quite short. In Wuhan the
coronavirus outbreak increased from 20 to 40 cases within 3 days (200106-08), and nearly
doubled every week, which underscores the urgency of early detection and rapid response.96 This
happened again in the second waves. Over the spring of 2020 it was reported that 40 initial
Covid-19 cases may reduce the probability of successful case isolation to 20%, even with 80% of
the contacts being traced and isolated.97 It took the coronavirus 67 days from the first reported
case to 100k, 11 days to double to 200k, and 4 more days to reach 300k.98 Similarly, from 5 to 10
MM infections took 38 days and from 10-15 MM only 24 days.99
These numbers are reminiscent of the 1918 influenza, which was first noted when 100
soldiers became ill with flu at Camp Funston in Fort Riley (Kansas), and this number of cases
quintupled within one week.100 Soon millions of people were affected. Our renewed experience
with exponential growth during the Covid-19 pandemic may also stimulate us to tackle climate
change, as this is also a crises that unfolds in slow motion, and once we see the consequences
around us we will be too late. The closer we get to the cliff, the more likely we are to fall off.
What we do today shall echo through the generations.

Personality and Covid-19 pandemic outcome scenarios

The downstream consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic can be informed by personality
principles and theories including the Big Five (B5) personality factors. The Big Five personality
factors categorize those individual differences that our ancestors deemed important enough to
talk about.101 The Big Five personality factors associate with virtually all important life outcomes
and risk factors (see Table 2) and underlie the behavioral immune system theory (see Table 1).
Early outcome predictions (in Tables 3 and 4) shall be tested using data that was collected
around the world. This book describes the disaster characteristics of the Covid-19 pandemic as

14
Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

an inherently complex and multifaceted phenomenon, and was aimed to derive a deeper
understanding of the unfolding downstream consequences of a disaster chain in terms of
personality, health, and well-being, and at the societal level. Studying and predicting the link
between personality traits and health outcomes is incredibly difficult if only because both are
moving targets (#24).102 Personality psychology provides a holistic model of a human being as a
bigger picture that integrates (a) individual differences, their sources, nature, and
conceptualizations, within (b) a dynamic system that evolves within each of us over the lifespan
while we adapt to our rapidly changing world.103
The Covid-19 pandemic is also highly relevant to personality theory, because the threat
was real, vivid, personally important, and ambiguous (recall that ~20-40% of the infected people
did not notice any symptoms whereas ~20% needed hospital care).104 The nervous anticipation of
consequences to life, health, and property (via economic meltdown) and lockdown may have
amplified the effects of personality differences or characteristic patterns in what we feel, think,
want, do, and value, both good and evil.105 The subsequent uncertainty about the duration of the
social distancing measures, the prolonged social distancing itself, the societal tension during
severe economic meltdown, and various coercive societal forces shall also exacerbate personality
differences in outcome effects via risk behaviors, coping, needs and resources, which is
explained in more detail throughout this book.106
Furthermore, viruses are known to alter our behavior and personalities but we don’t
understand the developmental processes very well, and the many people who became infected
with the coronavirus may shed light on this question too.107 Coronastudies that identify the
different outcomes that personality traits predict may help to narrow the potential pathways
through which traits operate.108

The next chapter (#1) superficially summarizes the zoonotic background and characteristics of
the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and then provides a journal of the plague year 2020. This journal
covers the unfolding events organized in 53 weekly reports that contextualize the situation in the
Netherlands within a broader international perspective. These reports are subsequently connected
to more thematic chapters as outlined in the Index (page 6, Table 1).

15
Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

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Abbreviation Description # Page

@
A Agreeableness
AT Austria (ISO-2)
BE Belgium (ISO-2)
C Conscientiousness
CA Canada (ISO-2)
CCSE Center for System Science and Engineering, John Hopkins University
CDC USA Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
CFR Case Fatality Ratio
CH Switserland (ISO-2)
Covid-19 Coronavirus disease 2019
CRE Charles River Editors
DE Germany (ISO-2)
DK Denmark (ISO-2)
E Extraversion
ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
EE Estonia (ISO-2)
EEA Environment of Evolutionary Adaptiveness
EU European Union
FI Finland (ISO-2)
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GR Greece (ISO-2)
HIV Human Immunodeficiency Viruses
HND HowNutsAreTheDutch
IC Intensive Care
ICG International Crisis Group
IE Ireland (ISO-2)
IT Italy (ISO-2)
LoC Locus of Control
LU Luxembourgh (ISO-2)
MERS Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
N Neuroticism
NIH USA National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease
NL Netherlands (ISO-2)
NYT New York Times
O Openness
OxCGRT @
PoM Peace of Mind
PT Portugal (ISO-2)
R0 Basic reproduction number
RIVM Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
SCP Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020: A Journal of the Plague Year

UK United Kingdom (ISO-2)

UN United Nations
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
USA United States of America
UTLA United Teachers Los Angeles
WEIRD Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic
WHO World Health Organization

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Journal of the Plague Year 2020

Table 6. The salient disaster characteristics of the Covid-19 pandemic

Salient disaster characteristics Covid-19 pandemic characteristics in the Netherlands
1. Direct or vicarious exposure? ++ Everybody will be directly affected via social isolation, our social network,
and in terms of finances and societal adjustments.
2. Proximity ++ You are surrounded.
3. Intentionality / mutability + Not on purpose, aggressive measures are possible, but soon fairly little can be
done about the pandemic except for regulated exposure to reach group
immunity, hopefully via vaccines.
4. Act of nature or purposeful and manmade? +/- Act of nature, but the risk has been amplified by human behavior, and the
consequences are substantially moderated by government efficacy and
societal responses.
5. Degree of life threat + Fairly low because 99% of the population survives (low when compared to
smoking, drinking, overeating, and climate change), but this risk can be much
larger depending on age and underlying pathology.
6. Death rate (exposure to death) ++ Thousands of victims and global cumulative counts are updated in real-time.
7. Physical injury + Most people experience only mild symptoms, but about 5% of the infected
need hospital care and recovery, and a substantial group dies.
8. Proportion community affected (e.g., urban/rural) ++ Virtually everybody will be affected
9. Bereavement or loss of significant others + Many people will lose a loved one
10. Speed of onset + Pandemic unfolded relatively rapid, and despite warning, surprised the
Western world.
11. Duration of the trauma ++ Isolation may persist for months and psychosocial and economic recovery
may take years or decades.
12. Potential for recurrence (control) + Yes, realistic expectation that coronavirus returns, or another zoo
13. Severity of property destruction +/- Fairly small on a personal level, although your company may go bankrupt,
but indirectly very large, via government debt.
14. Victim’s displacement from home + Yes, they are in the hospital
15. Person’s role in the trauma ++ Everybody is in social distancing
16. Organizational response to event (management) + Effective response from Dutch government, but problematic in many
countries
17. Sociocultural context of the event (understanding) ++ Exceptional event for the Netherlands and excessive media coverage. USA
president Obama broadcasted the MH17 crash as a “global tragedy”.

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Journal of the Plague Year 2020

Note. These characteristics have previously been used in Jeronimus and colleagues (2019a) but were derived from review papers on
disaster impact by Shore ea. (1986), Kasperson ea. (1988), Rubonis ea. (1991), Bromet ea. (1995), and Neria ea. (2008). + = indicates
high disaster impact, - = fairly low disaster impact, and +/- is medium disaster impact.

Table 7. The Binomial Effect Size Display

Alive Dead
High trait X 55 45 100
Low trait X 45 55 100
100 100 200
Note. Mortality outcomes in a hypothetical 200-person study in which the correlation between Trait X and infection with a deadly
disease is r= .10 and 100 participants show high X and 100 low X. Example adapted from Rosenthal & Rubin (1982, p. 167) after
being inspired by Funder (2019, p. 92).

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Journal of the Plague Year 2020

Pamflet by World Health Organization.

Van Kerkhove, 200705.

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Journal of the Plague Year 2020

Seen on twitter, 200705.

1
This text has been based on publicly available numbers over the spring of 2020, and has not been upaded after the summer of 2020, to keep it authentic. Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of
viruses that cause illness, and range from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV, with a Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) of 10%, R0= 2-5, 8k
people infected over 2002-03, 800 died) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV, CFR= 35%, 2012-14, 900 died), see Azhar ea. (2014), Graham ea. (2013), He ea. (2020), Honigsbaum
(2019), Li ea. (2020), Snowden (2019), and Zumla ea. (2016). Coronaviruses have RNA as genetic material and use spikes (the “Corona”) to invade cells (see Figure on top of the page), especially via

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Journal of the Plague Year 2020

our lungs (Graham ea., 2013; He ea., 2020). Covid-19 is the 7th identified human coronavirus (Huang ea., 2020; Zhou ea., 2020) and the causative agent is genetically related to SARS-CoV (Wölfel ea.,
2020) and uses the ACE2-receptor, just as SARS does (Haagmans ea., 2020). Covid-19 has a zoonotic origin i.e. jumps between animals, from bats and pangolin, mink, dog, cat and tiger to human and
vice versa (Halfmann ea., 2020; He ea., 2020; Patterson ea., 2020, Zumla ea., 2016, 200406, 200515, 200525). Nothing unusual as Influenza A viruses (which originate in birds i.e. Avian) infect a
variety of animals, including humans, pigs, horses, sea mammals (seals, mink, whales) and other birds (water fowl, chickens, ducks, see Webster ea., 1992). CFR= 1% indicates that 1/100 people
diagnosed with a disease die (99 recover), but unresolved cases (not dead nor recovered) may yield an underestimation. For comparison, the CFR during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or Spanish flu
(1918-20) was 1.7 to 2.5% (Collins, 1931; Dolan, 2020), with an attack rate of 28% (Frost, 1919) and R 0 of 1.8 (Biggerstaff ea., 2014).
2
See the John Hopkins University Map for current estimates or WHO interactive map and WHO updates. Reported data was derived from Cohen ea. (2020), Flaxman ea. (2020a), He ea., (2020),
Helliwel ea. (2020), Huang ea. (2020), Kissler ea. (2020), Kupferschmidt ea. (2020), Li ea. (2020), Silverman ea. (2020), Verity ea. (2020), Wang ea. (2020), WHO (200123, 200306), Wölfel ea. (2020),
and a Dutch Covid-19 FMS webinar (200318). Reports of previous pandemics can be found in Honigsbaum (2019 and Snowden (2019).
3
All cases of Covid-19 around the globe were linked in an unbroken chain of transmission from the first “index” case (NSC, 2005; Snowden, 2020). Every person could potentially infect a hundred
others (individual action, #4 and #10). See for personality theory chapter #22.
4
At the end of March 2020, 62% of the French reported being afraid to die because of coronavirus (200501) and over April 70% remained scared (200511), see for the Netherlands Engbersen ea. (2020)
and SCP (2020, 200707) and media (200508). Covid-19 spawned the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression (1930s), see (200322, 200409, 200409, 200422, 200703).
5
Coronavirus Research Center John Hopkins University (CCSE), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), World
Health Organization (WHO) or New York Times (NYT). See for the role of cultural and contextual vulnerabilities in epidemics Honigsbaum (2019) and Snowden (2019). The habit of tensely awaiting
new weekly bills with infection rates and dead counts and immediate public debate about their meaning was also occuring during the great plague of London (1665-66), see Defou (1722).
6
This initial boost in trust in the government was observed after september 11 th 2001 (9/11) and the financial crises of 2008 (200824). See chapter #3 for why minorities are hit harder and #9 for
stigmatization and Jones (2020) and Honigsbaum (2019). Examples of religion or tribes that are often blamed are the Jews. Many theorists asked themselves whether the COVID-19 pandemic could be
the world encompassing event that united the human race, akin to an alien invasion of Earth (such as in the speech by Reagan). See for examples of this discussion (200510, 200520).
7
For example, Black Lives Matter (BLM), see #8, or Jones (2020).
8
Micro refers to the smallest level of interaction such as a household, couple, or “self” in context. Meso refers to group level such as norms and epidemics. Macro refers to social structures and
institutions such as international relations. Also see chapters #18 and #19.
9
The interconnected forces implicated in the coronavirus pandemic can be understood by means of the image of a patchwork (or quilt) with interacting patches that each restrict the adaptive moves of
the other patches (a coevolving system). We can think of society or our physical health as a fitness landscapes in which the increasing prominence of one factor (in analogy of a species climbing towards
a fitness peak on its own landscape) shapes the fitness landscape of other factors (or species) that share its ecosystem (Kauffman, 1995; Ramage ea., 2020). Evolution jumps between nodes in a network
in an adaptive walk until it reaches the point at which no immediate neighbour node (“adjacent possibles”) provide better fitness (which can be a local, non-global optimum). In analogy, under the
pressure of the coronavirus pandemic societies are adjusting their system until they find an equilibrium, and it is likely that many societies converge to comparable outcomes. One empirical example is
the absence of reforms in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008-09, where many western countries faced similar problems (UK, USA, DE, NL, DE, SE) and reacted in an identical way despite all
their differences as welfare states (nobody did anything) against all theoretical predictions (Vis ea., 2011).
10
Consequently, most examples and references are from the Netherlands, and many footnotes may feel excessive and irrelevant, because this book has primarily been written for my own satisfaction and
understanding. Over the spring of 2020 I made video lectures to teach an entry level course on personality and individual differences (PSBE1-05, due to lockdown) and used the unfolding Covid-19
pandemic as a recurrent theme. Early march 2020 I crafted a two page preregistration on how personality differences, principles and theories could forecast intra-individual and collective variance in
health and wellbeing (integrated in Part II of this book). Personality theory provided me with a natural language to describe the whole human and persistent changes in citizens and societies (cq. Carver,
1996). I expected an explosion of studies during and after the Covid-19 pandemic which would illustrate how personality profiles (or “chords” of multiple traits or “notes”) predicted Covid-19 pandemic
outcome differences in synergistic interaction with various other individual differences including a socioeconomic gradient (e.g., wealth, education, and status) and differences in age, gender, ethnicity,
and social networks (such as having a partner and/or children), housing, job, culture, nationality, and many other major psychological traits and experiences. For example, emotions and mood (e.g.,
anxiety/depression), emotional and psychological wellbeing, intelligence (IQ), dark personality traits (Dark Triad), and empathy, all concepts that are introduced in chapter #22.
11
Mesmerizing honors the 18th century doctor Franz Mesmer who healed people using “animal magnetism” in which he looked deep into patients eyes (hypnosis) while touching their bodies to cure
them through natural magnetic force – the medical community did not believe it, but the public loved it, and “mesmerize” morphed into a synonym for hypnosis (spellbind/enthrall) and dreamy thoughts
(140425, 200605).
12
As a scientist I also try to habitually doubt my own opinions.
13
The dataset comprises 23 countries from which 1k representative participants were selected via Qualtrics, including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Indonesia, Italy,
Japan, Netherlands, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, the UK, Ukraine, and the USA. See Leander ea. (2020), Han ea. (2020), and media
(200710).
14
See van der Krieke ea. (2015) for all details on the HowNutsAreTheDutch study.
15
See e.g., Defou (1722), Honigsbaum (2019), Kerkhoff (2020), Quammen (2012), Snowden (2019), Voth ea. (2015).
16
See Quammen (2012), Snowden (2019) and Voth ea. (2015).

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Journal of the Plague Year 2020

or an elaboration on the role of pandemics in history, science, art, literature, and politics. For example, pandemics initiated the fall of Rome, political changes, and behavioral changes, as outlined
througout this book.
17
Galen described how victims experienced fever, chills, upset stomach and diarrhea, and black pocks over their bodies which left disfiguring scars, and suffered for up to three weeks before they started
to recover – and this plague hit the Han Dynasty in China in the same year (Cooper, 2020), which indicates that it became a pandemic.
18
See for Black Death and societal change Kerkhoff (2020), Newman (2012), Wiesner-Hanks (2006), and media (200418, 200510). See Bertherat (2019) for the plague situation around the world as
cases were observed on all continents except oceania.
19
See for the 1918 Influena pandemic a.k.a. Spanish flu or “La Grippe” (Snowden, 2019), which killed 20-40 MM people, and more people died in 1919 than during four years of Black Death Bubonic
Plague (1347-1351), which makes the influenza pandemic one of the most devastating in world history (note that the Black Death killed a much larger proportion of the population). The 1918 Influenza
pandemic was called Spanish Flu because Spain initially showed high mortality (and >8MM died in may 1918 (BMJ 19180713, 19181019), also see (200309). Note that Spain was probably also most
honest about the victims in the context of WW1.
20
See (200820), before smallpox was eradicated in 1979, a humanitarian triumph.
21
All items can be found in Supplementary Table S1.
22
There were significant differences in risk position across people as outlined in detail in chapter #3.
23
Event chains are discussed later in this book. See for disaster literature and event chains Bonanno ea. (2011), Norris ea. (2009), Quarantelli (2005) or Rodríguez ea. (2017).
24
Humans do not like to be told what to do and are greedy in pursiot of our wants and while our population continuous to grow unchecked and we employ old-fashioned methods of food production we
devour resources and pollute our planet to a climatic tipping point (see Bolonga ea., 2020). See for the power of context Turkheimer ea. (2000, 2016), Jeronimus (2015), and for the close link between
individual and context Kendler ea. (2007) or Vinkhuyzen ea. (2010. Our handling of both the coronavirus pandemic and the climate crises have been compared to the parabel of Sisyphus’ rock (200807).
25
See (200803, 200826) and a comparsison between the coronapandemic and influenza (WHO, 200306) and the 1918 influenza infection (Dolan, 2020).
26
The meat industry havd a key role in the emergence and spreading of infectious viruses and also SARS-CoV-2, see Dobson ea. (2020), Patz ea. (2005), Quammen (2012), Randolph ea. (2020),
Snowden (2019), and media (200723) Meat processing plants and abattoirs have also been a major source of coronavirus outbreaks (200623). See for protests against infections in meat industry
(200625).
27
See for this discussion (200510).
28
See (200508, 200510) and Honingbaum (2019). Most disasters have a clear ending, resulting in a different response, such as 9/11 or the MH17 disaster, see Rodríguez ea. (2017) or Jeronimus ea.
(2018). Some consequences of the coronavirus pandemic may last a lifetime, from people who became ill, or scarred by the experiences during lockdown (domestic violence, #3), to children and
students and personal hardship or bankrupcy. The “systematic changes and continuities in the individual that occur between conception and death”is the definition of developmental psychology by
Sigelman ea. (2014, p.2).
29
This notion of “wicked learning environments” was introduced by Robin Hogarth, and explained by Epstein (2019), p. 21. The opposite pole of a spectrum of contexts is a “kind” learning environment
in which patterns repeat themselves and feedback is extremely accurate and usally very rapid, such as in chess or golf, in which a piece is moved according to rules and within defined boundaries in
which instrinctive pattern recognition is highly powerful.
30
See Epstein (2019), p. 31.
31
Fortuna had an archaic cult that was celebrated on Midsummer Day with the festival Fors Fortuna (June 24th) and Fortuna may be derived from Vortumna, she who revolves the year. Note that the
turning wheel of Fortune was the symbol of people who rode to the top, only to be thrown down to the bottom at the next turning.
32
See Kerkhoff (2020).
33
See Honigsbaum (2020) and Snowden (2019, p.77), as well as Morse ea. (2012) and Murphy (1998) for predictions. Such surprises remain inevitable to some extent in our dangerous and chaotic
world. See for governments missing important and threathening signs (Harari, 2015; Kerkhoff, 2020). See media on how some governments failed in handling coronavirus (200806). See for reports of
USA government being warned by Wuhan virus in november 2019 (200409) but did not undertake any evident action.
34
Honingsbaum (2019), Kerkhoff (2020), Snowden (2019). USA president Wilson did initially nothing when the 1918 Influenza pandemic hit the USA because he was occupied with winning a world
war in Europe.
35
See for a surprised medical world and world leaders (200325, 200331). The 2009 H1N1 (swineflu) emerged in Mexico and California (late march/early april 2009, see CDC timeline) and when cases
had been confirmed in 19 Mexican states and 5 USA states (090425) the WHO declared the disease’s spread a “public health emergency of international concern” (090426). See (200310).
36
See Dobson ea. (2020) and media (200723). Think about Query (“Q”) fever (≥1935), HIV (≥1959), Mad Cow Disease (≥1993).
37
The global economic crisis of 2008 also surprised economists and their models (200721) and few predicted that a crash of the American housing marked (in 2007) would trigger a global crisis.
38
See Kerkhoff (2020, p. 12). In some Italian cities after the 15th century and in the Netherlands from the 17th century onwards.
39
Speech by David Nabarro. Also see SNC (2006). A novel G4 variant of the H1N1 avian-like swine flu with pandemic potential was discovered in 2020 (Sun ea., 2020; 200630), a descendant of the
2009 pandemic version which killed up to 575k people globally (Dawood ea., 2012).
40
See for media reports on surprise (200413). See WHO (2019) for Virus X, or Daszak ea. (2000), Honigsbaum (2019), Jones ea. (2008), Morse ea. (2012), Plowright ea (2015), Snowden (2019) and
Taylor ea. (2001). And also (200625a, 200625b). And next to these five, big epidemics have been reported of Avian Influenza A (H7N9) between 2013-2017 (Kile ea., 2017), among other diseases. In
2019 the Trump administration had held a training simulation on a hypothetical pandemic called Crimson Contagion which showed that the USA was utterly unprepared and this warning was send to

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Personality and the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Journal of the Plague Year 2020

the USA government by US Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Assistant Secretary for Prepartedness and Response – Crimson Contagion 2019 Functional Exercise Draft After-
Action Report (October 2019).
41
See Jones ea. (2008), Morse ea. (2012), Quammen (2012), Snowden (2019), Taylor ea. (2001).
42
See Jones ea. (2008), Morse ea. (2012), Quammen (2012), Snowden (2019), Taylor ea. (2001).
43
See Kerkhoff (2020) and reviews on disaster impact by Shore ea. (1986), Kasperson ea. (1988), Rubonis ea. (1991), Bromet ea. (1995), and Neria ea. (2008). The Dutch government had send most
available facemasks to China over february, resulting in shortages in march and april 2020, which put many nurses and elderly at risk, which angered many citizens (200311, 200411, 200418), see
#1/wk11 for more details.
44
This was also concluded by Berman (2020) and Snowden (2019). History showed how countries improved their strategies centuries ago to prepare and fight-off subsequent pandemics (Kerkhoff,
2020).
45
See for vaccine race in response to coronavirus (200703, 200718).
46
Paraphrasing prof. Daszak, see interview (200625). See for a comparable response to previous pandemics Honigsbaum (2019) and Snowden (2019). See for <2020 plans (Morse ea. 2012; Pike ea.
2014) and ≥2020 plans Dobson ea. (2020) or Randolph ea. (2020) and media (200723).
47
See Dobson ea. (2020) and Randolph ea. (2020) and media (200723).
48
See (200723).
49
After the North Sea Flood (1953), the Netherlands build an infrastructure to protect themselves against floods that occurred once every 1000 years (Delta Works, 25 years of work, costs in the range of
20% of GDP).
50
See Carroll ea. (2018) and Snowden (2019), but also Kerkhoff (2020) and media.
51
This has been outlined in detail by Snowden (2019), but is already evident in work by Defou (1722).
52
See (200324a, 200324b, 200728). Minister Maggie De Block did not replace them. The Belgium government said they stored this strategic stock of face maks at the defence department, but in poor
circumstances, which made the face masks useless (200324b).
53
Despite warnings from these officials that the USA was not ready to respond to a pandemic flu (2019, 200308), their health security concern no 1. See media (200308, 200314, 200324, 200325,
200331). The Trump administration had been briefed on the playbook’s existence in 2017 (200325).
54
See (200308, 200314, 200324, 200325, 200331).
55
See Berman (2020) and Snowden (2019). For example, the USA also had a Pandemic Influenza Plan (2005, updated in 2017, Department of Health and Human Services [HHS]); National Strategy
for Pandemic Influenza and its Implementation Plan (Homeland Security Council [NSC, 2005]); Global Campaign Plan for Pandemic Influenza (Defense Department), National Blueprint for
Biodefense (written by a bipartisan commission made up of former lawmakers, executive-branch officials, and experts), National Response Framework (Department of Homeland Security (DHS),
National Health Security Strategy and Implementation Plan (HHS, which covers a range of possible emergency scenarios that include pandemics), and the Covid-19 specific Government Pandemic
Crisis Action Plan (PanCAP). The fifty states and a series of major companies in the private sector also had their own plans (Snowden, 2019). Many USA officials refused to comment on state failure,
e.g., (200324). See for 2018 National Biodefense Strategy (180918).
56
See (200409). NCMI is a component of the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency.
57
See (200409). A clear warning that a cataclysmic event was coming.
58
See (200409). The USA had for a decade been rebalancing their geopolitics to Asia and their military presence had increased to ~140k soldiers in 2020. Between 1987 and 2018 the USA miltiary
presence in Europe had decreased from 354k to 66k, and in the Asia-Pacific region from 184k to 131k (200705). During the spring and summer the aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan
carried through the Soutch Chinese Sea (200704).
59
See fir first cases of SARS Leung ea. (2009) and for role China media reports (200212) and SARS timeline.
60
In the alarm system patient details would be added to a computer and immediately send to government health authorities in Beijing, where experts spotted and smothered contagious outbreaks before
they spread (200329). This delay led to many additional infections, a lockdown one week earlier would have reduced the infections with >66%, and three weeks earlier reporting would have decreased
the infections with 95%, according to Lai ea. (2020). Also see media (200213, 200329).
61
See (200329).
62
Berman (2020) and media (200813).
63
Berman (2020).
64
See (200201).
65
See (200228, 200228, 200312, 200317, 200318, 200331, 200506, 200803). See for the potential role of personality of leaders (191003).
66
See (200307, 200308). See for Trump’s grandfather (200307).
67
See (200424, 200424, 200426, 200710). In one government poll about one in three respondents reported using disinfectants in an unsafe maner. When Trump suggested the injection of disinfectants
>45k USA citizens had died from Covid-19 (NYT). Medical experts immediately responsed with the warning that even a low dilution of bleach or isopropyl alcohol is radically unsafe, and that inhaling
chlorine bleach is very bad for your lungs. The same week the USA Food and Drug Administration warned that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, two drugs that Trump had repeatedly recommended
in treating the coronavirus, could cause dangerous abnormalities in heart rhythm in coronavirus patients and has resulted in some deaths (200424).

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68
See (200819); Loekasjenko had been president since 1994 and made himself dictator in 1996 (adapted the constitution) until the election of august 2020, when the coronavirus together with his
misogynic underestimation of how much more citizens trusted the housewife Svetlana Tichanovskaja resulted in an uproar agains the evidently false claim that Loekasjenko received 80% of the votes.
69
See (200728). A receipt for disaster. 3
70
See (200728).
71
See for Taiwan (200715, 200805).
72
Media (200406, 200518).
73
See (200728).
74
See (200728).
75
The title had been inspired by the “Journal of the Plague Year” (1722) by Daniel Defou.
76
See Harari (2014), McAdams (2015), Pennebaker (2011).
77
See for more introverted, risk aversive, private and hygienic #11 (200328, 200529). Only in 1847 the Hungarian gynecologist Ignaz Semmelweis discovered the link between hygiene and health via
reduced mortality in newborns when nurses were forced to wash their hands with bleach (200529). Many cleanings protocols emerged during epidemics (Elias, 2010; Honigsbaum, 2019). And often
good initiatives faded away when fear and anxiety had disappeared.
78
See Caspi ea. (1993).
79
See Kunnen ea. (2019). This volatility is often assumed in economic (e.g., Kuipers, 2005) and psychological theories (Jeronimus, 2019).
80
This has previously been observed in the aftermath of natural disasters, see Cohan ea. (2002).
81 See Kerkhoff (2020) and Kuipers (2006), Defou (1722) and Wiesner-Hanks ea. (2006).
82
The revolutions refer to the Glorious Revolution (1688), American Revolution (1765-83), France Revolution (1789-99), Haitian revolution (1791-1804), Chinese Revolution (1911), Russian
Revolution (1917), and overthrown Sovjet government (1989), while the three major modern (Industrial, Demographic, and Happiness) revolutions are well described by Easterlin (2019).
83
This process was going on before the coronavirus pandemic (190127, 190302) but will be accelerated over 2020 (200406). “For Americans under the age of 40, the 21st century has resembled one
long recession” (190127). See Bleidorn ea. (2013) for the effect or adopting a role as worker or parent on personality. See for potential scarring effect of economic crisis Fondeville (2014).
84
See for this generational wealth gap (190127).
85
(200701). See for the potential of Covid-19 to stay as an annual illness; Seow ea. (2020) or media (200712).
86
See (200806).
87
E.g., de Vries (2020).
88
The disaster characteristics of Covid-19 are summarized in Table 6. See for disasters and individual differences in their impact Bonanno ea. (2010, 2011), Shore ea. (1986), Jeronimus ea. (2018),
Kasperson ea. (1988), Rubonis ea. (1991), Bromet ea. (1995), Neria ea. (2008), North ea. (2013), Norris ea. (2002, 2006, 2009), Rubonis ea. (1991), Shore ea. (1986), Shultz ea. (2013), Quarantelli
(2005), Rodríguez ea. (2017). See for specific disasters chapter #16. The distinction between natural and manmade is rather artificial because many “natural” disasters such as landslides or avalanches
are nowadays manmade via environmental pollution and degradation, overpopulation, and unstainable rural practices, as well as large and crowded cities and costly infrastructure that makes us more
vulnerable (e.g., Bankoff, 2001).
89
See Bankoff (2001) and Rodríguez ea. (2017) and for migration and refugees (Zimmerman ea., 2011).
90
See for 20% major disaster event Neria ea. (2008); 40-80% ≥1 traumatic event Bonanno ea. (2011) and Kessler ea. (1995) and for bereavement Horwitz ea. (2007).
91
For example, Jeronimus (2015).
92
See for disaster studies Bonanno ea. (2010, 2011), Bromet ea. (1995), Jeronimus (2018), Kasperson ea. (1988), Neria ea. (2008), North ea. (2013), Norris ea. (2002, 2006, 2009), Rubonis ea. (1991),
Shore ea. (1986), Shultz ea. (2013), Quarantelli (2005), Rodríguez ea. (2017). See for life events and personality perturbations Jeronimus (2014, 2015, 2019), Ormel ea. (2017), Specht (2017). Life
events and subjective well-being see Luhmann ea. (2012).
93
See for 20-30% with chronic problems Bonanno ea. (2010, 2011) or Norris ea. (2002, 2009).
94
Most people think that on day 12 the patch covers half of the lake’s surface (when only 0.024% is covered), which is day 23 in reality, when you are too late to do something about it (200522). This is
a fictional story as growing over a pond typically takes multiple years and seldom covers the middle of the lake as often animals or other plants arrive who eat it.
95
Example was given by Ferdinant Grapperhaus jr. (200807).
96
See for early detection Niu ea. (2020). See for rapid spreading Park ea. (2020). See for the handling of the coronavorus the social distancing measures as described in chapter #4.
97
Hellewell ea. (2020) or Niu ea. (2020).
98
See (200810).
99
See (200810).
100
As outlined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Also see (200803).
101
See for lexical hypothesis Table 1 and John ea. (2008).

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102
Which is known as the Red Queen Personality Principle (#22). Also see e.g., Fisher ea. (2018), Hampson (2019), Jeronimus (2015, 2019), Mund ea. (2018).
103
See Carver (1996), Jeronimus (2015, 2019) and Larsen ea. (2021).
104
Which is actually quite normal and has been reported during numerous previous epidemics (Honigsbaum, 2019) such as SARS (Tan, 2006). Fever, for example, is evident in only 8-30% of those
infected with influenza or other respiratory infections (e.g., Chughtai ea., 2018). See for Covid-19 symptoms Li ea. (2020). Covid-19 seems to spread unusually rapid and may be much less fatal than
estimated in March 2020 (e.g., Silverman ea., 2020; Ward, 2020), and has often been compared to flu in terms of mortality, as described in the next pages (also see #14).
105
This amplification effect has been mentioned by Allport (1961), Caspi ea. (1993), John ea. (2008), and Mischel, (1977), among others. See for the strong situation hypothesis Cooper ea. (2009). Such
nervous anticipation has been observed in Hongkong in february (200212) and South-Africa over april (200410) before it became a disaster over the summer of 2020, and before the second waves in
New Zealand (#1/wk32) and parts of Europe (#1/wk34, e.g., Spain). Personality is reflected in the characteristic ways we modify our changing contexts (#3.6), see Caspi & Bem (1990).
106
See Brooks ea. (2020) and Kissler ea. (2020).
107
See Kramer ea. (2015). There are indications that common viruses such as Cytomegalovirus (a herpes virus that infects the majority of the world’s population) also influence our genes (e.g., Børglum
ea., 2014); the infection is usually benign except in 15% of the participants who carry a particular genetic variant (which itself is also benign).
108
See for similar arguments Weston ea. (2014).