VULNERABILITY OF INDIAN COASTLINE TO SEA LEVEL RISE

Diksha Aggarwal and Murari Lal

Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology,

New Delhi-110016, INDIA
Email: [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Indian coastline stretches about 5700 kms on the mainland and about 7500 kms including the two
island territories and exhibits most of the known geomorphological features of coastal zones. Presently,
Indian coastline is facing increasing human pressures e.g., overexploitation of marine resources, dumping
of industrial and toxic wastes, oil spills and leaks which have resulted in substantial damage to its
ecosystems. The impact of global warming-induced sea level rise due to thermal expansion of near-
surface ocean water has great significance to India due to its extensive low-lying densely populated
coastal zone. Sea level rise is likely to result in loss of land due to submergence of coastal areas, inland
extension of saline intrusion and ground water contamination and may have wide economic, cultural and
ecological repercussions. Observations suggest that the sea level has risen at a rate of 2.5 mm year-1 along
the Indian coastline since 1950s. A mean sea level rise of between 15 and 38 cm is projected by the mid-
21st century along India’s coast. Added to this, a 15% projected increase in intensity of tropical cyclones
would significantly enhance the vulnerability of populations living in cyclone prone coastal regions of
India. Other sectors vulnerable to the climate change include freshwater resources, industry, agriculture,
fisheries, tourism and human settlements. Given that many climate change impacts on India’s coastal
zone feature irreversible effects, the appropriate national policy response should enhance the resilience
and adaptation potential of these areas.

1. Introduction

India has been identified as one amongst 27 countries which are most vulnerable to the impacts of
global warming related accelerated sea level rise (UNEP, 1989). The high degree of vulnerability of
Indian coasts can be mainly attributed to extensive low-lying coastal area, high population density,
frequent occurence of cyclones and storms, high rate of coastal environmental degradation on account of
pollution and non-sustainable development. Most of the people residing in coastal zones are directly
dependent on natural resource bases of coastal ecosystems. Any global warming-induced climatic change
such as increase in sea surface temperature, change in frequency, intensity or tracks of cyclones, sea level
rise may aggravate the potential risks to coastal zones. The rise in sea level could result in the loss of
cultivable land due to inundation, salt water intrusion into coastal ecosystems and into groundwater
systems and loss of terrestrial and marine biodiversity. In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess
the vulnerability of various sectors of coastal zones to the impacts of sea level rise and some suggestions
on response strategies and adaptation measures have been outlined.

2. General Features of Indian Coastline

Indian coastline extends to about 5700 kms on mainland and to about 7500 kms including two groups
of islands. Western coastline has a wide continental shelf having an area of about 0.31 million km2,
which is marked by backwaters and mud flats. East coast consists of Tamil Nadu coast, Andhra coast,
Orissa coast and West Bengal coast, which is flat and deltaic and rich in mangrove forests covering an
area of about 1430 km2. Mangroves are located all along estuarine areas, deltas, tidal creeks, mud flats,
salt marshes and extend to about 6740 km2 (about 7% of world’s mangrove areas). Major estuarine areas
located along the Indian coasts (Fig. 1) extend to about 2.6 million hectares (Gauda & Panigrahy, 1999).
Coral reefs are predominant on small islands in Gulf of Kutch, Gulf of Mannar in Tamil Nadu and on
Lakshadweeep and Andaman and Nicobar groups of islands. Ecosystems such as coral reefs, mangroves,
estuaries and deltas are rich in biodiversity which play a crucial role in fishery production besides
protecting the coastal zones from erosion by wave action. India ranked 5th in fishery productivity in Asia
in 1996 (Grainger & Garcia, 1996). The annual production of important marine resources during recent
years is shown in Table I (FAO, 2000). A total number of 11 major and 130 minor sea ports located in
coastal zones are economic engines of International and National Trade and Commerce in India.

3. Factors Affecting Vulnerability of Indian Coastal Zones

3.1 Anthropogenic/Socio-economic factors

Coastal zones in India are currently facing increasing stresses and shocks as a consequence of
cumulative environment change driven by population growth, urbanisation, industrial development, trade
and capital flows, liberalisation of transnational corporation activity and life style, attitudinal changes and
unsustainable growth leading to degradation of coastal zones and ecosystems. A large percentage of
coastal population is directly dependent on coastal and marine resources like mangroves and other coastal
vegetations, agriculture and fisheries for their livelihood. Any impact to the coastal ecosystem may affect
the coastal population in almost every sector of their lives. Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas
activities in the offshore regions like Godawari, Krishna and Bombay have resulted in pollution of coastal
ecosystems. The annual quantum of pollutants received by the sensitive and fragile coastal ecosystems in
Indian waters is given in Table II. The problem of freshwater is already acute in coastal regions of Tamil
Nadu, Gujarat, West Bengal and Orissa due to the over-extraction of groundwater which has resulted in
lowering of groundwater table and salt water intrusion. The lowering of groundwater table has also led to
subsidense of coastal land causing high relative sea level rise. Lagoons located across the coastal regions
of India tend to be decreasing in area due to silting of sediments and plant growing. Sea-level rise and
reduction of river-borne sediments will decelerate delta progradation and wetland renewal. The rich
biodiversity is seriously threatened by loss of wetlands due to sea level rise.
As a result of major coral bleaching in 1998, many reefs dominated by branching species in Indian
Seas have been severely damaged with high mortality of these species. In coastal seas around Andaman
Islands of India, reef community structure has switched from dominance by fast-growing branching
species to monopolization by the more physically rigorous and slow-growing massive corals. Quarrying
of coral reefs in Lakshdweep islands, Gulf of Mannar in Tamil Nadu and Gulf of Kutch in Gujarat for the
manufacture of calcium carbonate and construction purposes has exposed the coasts to the eroding
actions of the waves (Qasim, 1999). Mining of monazite sands for extracting a number of rare earth
elements like ilmenite, zircon and rutile along Kerala coast at levels below sea water has resulted in
submergence of land, salt water intrusion into fresh water and erosion. Mining of cast iron ore along Goa
coast has led to the formation of acidic waste lands making the land more vulnerable to the impacts of sea
level rise and erosion. The vulnerability of coastal zones to an increasing range of stresses and shocks are
likely to be exacerbated by climate change.
3.2 Climate change

3.2.1 Future climate change and estimated sea level rise on Indian coastal zone
Past observations on the mean sea level along the Indian coast indicate a long-term rising trend of
about 1.0 mm year-1 on an annual mean basis. However, the recent data suggests a rising trend of 2.5 mm
year-1 in sea level rise along Indian coastline. Model simulation studies based on an ensemble of four A-O
GCM outputs indicate that the oceanic region adjoining the Indian subcontinent is likely to warm up at its
surface by about 1.5-2.0oC by the middle of this century and by about 2.5-3.5oC by the end of the century
(cf. Table III). The corresponding thermal expansion related sea level rise is expected to be between 15 to
38 cm by the middle of century and between 46 to 59 cm by the end of the century (Lal & Aggarwal,
2000). This simulated rise in sea level by 46 to 59 cm along Indian coastline is comparable with the
projected global mean sea level rise of 50 cm by the end of this century and may have significant impact
on coastal zones of India.

3.2.2 Sea surface temperature and tropical cyclones

Global warming would result in an increase in sea surface temperatures as a result of which changes in
the frequency, intensity or tracks in cyclones hitting the coastal zones may take place. India is frequently
affected by tropical cyclones and storms particularly during or around monsoon season. About 6.5%
(Neumann, 1993) of about world’s 80 tropical storms (McBride, 1995) are formed annually in the Indian
ocean. Frequency of formation of cyclones is 5-6 times more in Bay of Bengal as compared to Arabian
Sea (IMD, 1979). Therefore, the east coast of India (particularly the States of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and
West Bengal) is more vulnerable than the west coast to the fury of cyclones and massive damage of life
and property occurs almost every year. The number of cyclones and depresssions formed per annum over
the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and land during the last century along with the all-India mean
temperature annomalies for the same period are shown in Fig. 2. The 1999 tropical supercyclone that hit
the coast of Orissa on 29th October with wind speed of 260 km hour-1 resulted in the death toll of over
10,000 and demonstrates the extreme significance of impacts related to climate variability and extremes.
There have been a number of studies on the likelihood of changes in the tropical storms in the event of
global warming (Knutson et al., 1999; Henderson-Sellers et al., 1998; Royer et al., 1998 and
Krishnamurti et al., 1998). Some recent global climate model experiments suggest a future decline in
tropical cyclone frequency (Royer et al., 1998). Although the studies carried out so far are inconclusive
on the likely changes in frequency of cyclones with global warming, it is almost certain that an increase in
sea surface temperature will be accompanied by a corresponding increase in cyclone intensity. Recent
studies suggest a possile increase in cyclone intensity of 10-20% for a rise in sea surface temperature of 2
to 4oC. The impacts of any increase in the frequency or intensity of cyclones due to global warming and
consequent sea level rise could be disproportionately large not only in heavily populated coastal areas but
also in terms of the paralyzing devastation in low income rural areas of India.
Storm surges are generated by the winds and the atmospheric pressure changes associated with
cyclones. At low latitude land-locked locations such as Bay of Bengal, tropical cyclones are the major
cause of storm surges. Amplification in storm surge heights should result from the occurrence of stronger
winds and low pressure associated with more intense tropical storms. Thus, an increase in sea surface
temperature due to climate change should lead to higher peaks of storm surges and a greater risk of
coastal disasters along the east coast of India in the event of sea level rise.
4. Vulnerability Assessment

4.1 Land inundation and population affected

Recent studies on the potential impact of one meter sea level rise along Indian coast provide an idea
about the land which could be inundated and the population that would be affected provided no protective
measures are taken. It has been suggested that the total area of 5763 km2 along the Coastal States of India
i.e., 0.41% could be inundated and almost 7.1 million i.e., 4.6 % of coastal population could be directly
affected (cf. Table IV) (TERI, 1996). The most vulnerable areas along the Indian coastline are the Kutch
region of Gujarat, Mumbai and South Kerala. Deltas of rivers Ganges (West Bengal), Cauvery (Tamil
Nadu), Krishna and Godawari (Andhra Pradesh), Mahanadi (Orissa) and also the islands of Lakshadweep
Archipelago would be totally lost.
Vulnerability of the region can be assessed not only in terms of physical exposure to sea level rise but
also in terms of the level of socio-economic development of that region like population density, land uses,
level of infrastructure and other investments. From a purely physical point of view, Gujarat and West
Bengal would be most affected since they stand to lose the maximum land area to one meter sea level rise.
In terms of population, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu would be worst affected because of
their high population density. In terms of the fractional area, Goa would be most affected as it would lose
almost 4.34 % of its total area.

4.2 Salt water intrusion and fresh water resources and agriculture
In the coastal regions of Tamil Nadu, salinity of groundwater due to the intrusion of seawater into the
subsurface aquifer is a major problem (Subramanian, 2000). Due to excess withdrawal of groundwater,
the water table has fallen too far below thereby allowing seawater to percolate. Similarly, in Gujarat due
to uncontrolled withdrawal of groundwater, the ground water is becoming highly saline apart from the
fact that depth of the water table reaching at places beyond 200 meters (Subramanian, 2000). Coastal
aquifer system will be more contaminated with salinity bringing greater complicacy to the problem of
tapping usable groundwater (Mohanty, 1990). In coastal regions of West Bengal and Orissa, the problem
of fresh water is fairly acute because of the depth of water table and high cost of lifting the same from the
depth of 700-1000 meters. The shallow salt water table often renders stored water in ditches and ponds
brackish and surface soil saline. In view of this, only one kharif crop could be possible (Jhingran, 1989).
Tidal ingress and pushing up of saline waters inland may extend by 35-50 kms beyond the present limit
(Mohanty & Ray, 1987) and during storm conditions, the spread of salinity in the low-lying agricultural
lands may ruin the prospect of crops. The potential impacts of one meter sea level rise on the land uses
affected in the Coastal States in terms of the share of total land affected are shown in Table V (TERI,
1996). The cultivated land would be worst affected by both inundation and intrusion due to rising sea
level.

4.3 Vulnerability of mangroves, coral reefs and other ecosystems

Intensive production systems and large scale facilities used to raise high value shrimp, salmon and
other premium species has taken a heavy toll on coastal habitats, with mangrove swamps in India being
cleared at an alarming rate. Coastal ecosystems like mangroves, coral reefs provide natural protection to
coasts by dissipating considerable wave energy and hence only smaller waves of moderate intensity reach
the shore and break. Coastal erosion is caused by forces of nature but very often accentuated by
anthropogenic activities like making of structures on shores, removal of the materials from the shores etc.
The fishery resources of India are being depleted by over fishing, excessive use of pesticide, industrial
pollution and even construction of coastal structures. The loss of inshore fish nursery habitats by coastal
development, and pollution from land-based activities cause significant change to ecosystems supporting
fisheries. The impact of global warming on fishery will depend on the complicated food chain, which
could be disturbed by sea level rise, change in ocean currents, and alteration of the mixing layer
thickness.
The rich biodiversity of the wetlands in India is seriously threatened by loss of wetlands due to sea
level rise. India’s Sunderbans are highly vulnerable to sea level rise since it will change the salinity
distribution and hence the productivity. The effect of sea level rise will depend on the type of mangrove
forest, these may either keep pace with the rising sea level rise or these may be submerged. Large scale
changes in species composition and zonation in mangrove forests are also expected due to changes in
sedimentation and organic accumulation, nature of coastal profile and species interaction.

5. Response Strategies and Adaptation options

The impact of sea level rise on Indian coastline could be significant which is already under stress due
to unsustainable human activities. To devise appropriate and effective response strategies, it is essential to
make vulnerability assessment studies at regional and local levels. For this, all the factors related to
eustatic sea level rise, local hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic changes, local compaction
and tectonic movements need to be considered. There is an urgent need to make a systematic inventory on
tidal gauge measurements, mud flats and drifts, estuarine activities and other socio-economic activities
which are being carried out in coastal zones. Efforts should be initiated to protect the coastal zones form
erosion, salt water intrusion by judiciously chosing the hard (e.g., seawall, revetments, groins etc.) or soft
structures(e.g., regeneration of natural protective systems like mangroves, coral reefs or replenishment of
sandy beeches). Coastal zone management plan should also include research and development activities
for cost effective methods for the protection of coastal lands. Rules and regulations must be framed and
enforced to have a control over the developmental activities and to put restrictions on seaward extrusion.
Such tasks should produce a mix of products and services from the available coastal resources, which
should enhance India’s coastal resilience and facilitate adaptation.

References

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7, no. 1, pp. 74-82.
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analysis and fisheries potential, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper, no. 359, Rome, FAO, 51p.
Henderson-Sellers, A., H. Zhang, G. Berz, K. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Holland, J. Lighthill, S.
L. Shieh, P. Webster and K. McGuffie (1998): Tropical cyclones and global clmate change: A post
IPCC assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., vol.79, 1938p.
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possibly future SST anomalies on the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes, Tellus, vol.50A, pp.186- 210.
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Table I: Production of important marine resources in million tonnes per annum

Production (Million Tonnes) 1996 1997 1998
Total marine fish 2.464 2.477 -
Crustaceans, molluscs 0.466 0.464 -
Shrimps, prawns (marine area) - 0.311 0.330

Table II: Type and quantum of pollutants entering annually into the coastal waters of India
Input / pollutant Quantum – Annual
Sediments 1600 million tonnes
Industrial effluents 50 x 106 m3
Sewage - largely untreated 0.41 x 109 m3
Garbage and other solids 34 x 106 tonnes
Fertilizer – residue 5 x 106 tonnes
Synthetic detergents – residue 1,30,000 tonnes
Pesticides – residue 65, 000 tonnes
Petroleum hydrocarbons (Tar balls residue) 3,500 tonnes
Mining rejects, dredged spoils & sand 0.2 x 106 tonnes
extractions
Table III: Climate Change Projections for India based on an ensemble of four A-O GCM outputs (Numbers in bracket are for the
GHG+aerosol forcing experiments while those outside are for GHG only forcing experiments)
Temperature Change (°C) Precipitation Change (%) SLR (cm)
Year Annual Winter Monsoon Annual Winter Monsoon
2020s 1.36±0.19 1.61±0.16 1.13±0.43 2.9±3.7 2.7±17.7 2.9±3.7 4 to 8
(1.06±0.14) (1.19±0.44) (0.97±0.27) (1.05±3.7) (-10.1±10.0) (1.05±3.7)
2050s 2.69±0.41 3.25±0.36 2.19±0.88 6.7±8.9 -2.9±26.3 6.7±8.9 15 to 38
(1.92±0.20) (2.08±0.85) (1.81±0.57) (-2.36±7.1) (-14.8±18.9) (-2.36±7.1)
2080s 3.84±0.76 4.52±0.49 3.19±1.42 11.0±12.3 5.3±34.4 11.0±12.3 46 to 59
(2.98±0.42) (3.25±0.53) (2.67±1.49) (-0.13±15.2) (-11.2±21.2) (-0.13±15.2)

Table IV: Potential effects of one meter sea level rise on India’s coastal area and population
State/Union Coastal area (million hectares) Population (millions)
territory
Total Likely to be Percentage Total Likely to be Percentage
inundated affected
Andhra Pradesh 27.504 0.055 0.19 66.36 0.617 0.93
Goa 0.370 0.016 4.34 1.17 0.085 7.25
Gujarat 19.602 0.181 0.92 41.17 0.441 1.07
Karnataka 19.179 0.029 0.15 44.81 0.25 0.56
Kerala 3.886 0.012 0.30 29.08 0.454 1.56
Maharashtra 30.771 0.041 0.13 78.75 1.376 1.75
Orissa 15.571 0.048 0.31 31.51 0.555 1.76
Tamil Nadu 13.006 0.067 0.52 55.64 1.621 2.91
West Bengal 8.875 0.122 1.38 67.98 1.6 2.35
Andaman and 0.825 0.006 0.72 0 0 0
Nicobar Islands
India 139.594 0.571 0.41 416.74 7.1 1.68
Note: Coastal area and population are based on the 1981 and 1991 census

Table V: Fraction of land likely to be affected in case of one meter sea level rise along coasts of various Indian States
State Cultivated Land Cultivable# land Forest land Land not available
for agriculture
Gujarat 0.03 0.08 0.00 0.89
Maharashtra 0.39 0.21 0.09 0.31
Goa 0.65 0.03 0.00 0.31
Karnataka 0.51 0.13 0.13 0.23
Tamil Nadu 0.39 0.39 0.00 0.21
Orissa 0.68 0.15 0.05 0.12
West Bengal 0.74 0.04 0.00 0.22
Source: State sea level rise reports
# Cultivable land is land that can be brought under cultivation, while land not available for agriculture is the land under
human settlements, commerce, trade etc.