Phase 6 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3

Josefina Vargas
CÓDIGO: 52409503

No. DE GRUPO212066A-614

TUTOR
RICARDO JAVIER PINEDA

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA

Theory of decisions
November 17 2019
Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. General objectives
3. Exercise solution 1
4. Exercise solution 2
5 Exercise solution 3
7. Bibliographies
 Introduction

Business success associated with other elements such as the responsibility of each of
the participants, and is a topic of great importance today for

almost all organizations, which seek a continuous improvement of the environment of

its organization, in order to achieve an increase in productivity, Likewise,

organizational culture is the name given to the environment

generated by the emotions of the members of a group or organization, which is

related to employee motivation. To the same extent that you can

analyze and describe an organization as regards its properties, its structure

and its processes.

 General objectives

the development of the problems posed in an organization for making the best decision with
facts and data which provide us with the required information.
Exercise 1. Markov chains (steady state):

The XYZ insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If
you have not had accidents, the last two years will be charged for the new policy $ 530,000
(state 0); if you have had an accident in each of the last two years, you will be charged $
719,000 (State 1); If you had accidents the first of the last two years, you will be charged $
517,000 (state 2) and if you had an accident, the second of the last two years will be
charged $ 778,000 (State 3). The historical behavior of each state is given by the following
accident cases, taken in four different events.

According to Table 1, applying Markovian processes, finding the transition matrix and
solving the respect equations of p * q, where p is the transition matrix and q the vector [W
X Y Z]. Responder:
to. What is the transition matrix resulting from proportionality according to accident
history?

MATRIZ DE TRANSICION
0,2 0,2
0,3 0,2 5 5
0,3 0,1
0,3 5 5 0,2
0,3
0,25 5 0,4 0
0,1 0,2 0,4
0,15 5 5 5
yes. What is the average premium paid by a customer in Payoff, according to the historical
accident rate?

ECUACION
ES                    
1 0 W 0 X 0 Y 0 Z = W
2 0 W 0 X 0 Y 0 Z = X
3 0 W 0 X 0 Y 0 Z = Y
4 0 W 0 X 0 Y 0 Z = Z

ECUACION
ES                   
- 0,2 0,2
1 0,7 W 0,2 X 5 Y 5 Z = 0
-
0,6 0,1
2 0,3 W 5 X 5 Y 0,2 Z = 0
0,2 0,3 -
3 5 W 5 X 0,6 Y 0 Z = 0
-
0,1 0,1 0,2 0,5
4 5 W 5 X 5 Y 5 Z = 0

Matrix

1   1   1   1   = 1
0,2 0,2
-0,7 0,2 5 5 = 0
--
0,6 0,1
0,3 5 5 0,2 = 0
0,2 0,3
5 5 -0,6 0 = 0
0,1   0,1   0,2   --   = 0
 0,5
5 5 5 5

Solution by gauss Jordan

Solution

PROMEDIO PAGADO POR

STATES CLIENTE
E0 25%
E1 25%
E2 25%
E3 25%

Evidences
Exercise 2. Markov chains (multiplication of initial state):

In Colombia there are 5 main mobile operators such as Tigo, Comcel, Movistar, ETB and
Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the chances that each
customer will have to remain in their current operator or make a change of company.

STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF

TIGO 0,25 0,15 0,35 0,1 0,15
COMCEL 0,2 0,35 0,15 0,1 0,2
MOVISTA
0,35 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,05
R
ETB 0,15 0,25 0,05 0,25 0,3
UFF 0,15 0,25 0,3 0,15 0,15

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo 0.2 for Comcel
0.3, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1 and 0.1 for Uff (initial state).

According to Table 2, applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of the initial
state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix). Answer:

to. Find the probability that each user will remain with the mobile phone company for the
next 3 periods.
 MATRIZ DE TRANSICION
0,25 0,15 0,35 0,1 0,15
0,2 0,35 0,15 0,1 0,2
0,35 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,05
0,15 0,25 0,05 0,25 0,3
0,15 0,25 0,3 0,15 0,15

ESTADO INICIAL STATE PROBABILIDAD

0,2 TIGO 0,225
0,3 COMCEL 0,22
0,3 MOVISTAR 0,215
0,1 ETB 0,175
0,1 UFF 0,225

Exercise 3. Markov chains (multiplication of initial state):

In Colombia there are 6 main mobile operators such as Avantel, Tigo, Comcel, Movistar,
ETB and Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the chances that
each customer will have to remain in their current operator or make a change of company.

AVANTE
STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF
L
 TIGO 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,1 0,1 0,1
COMCEL 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,1
MOVISTA
0,1 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2 0
R
ETB 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,2
AVANTEL 0,1 0,15 0,35 0,1 0,1 0,2
UFF 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0 0,2

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo 0.1 for Comcel
0.2, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1, Avantel 0.1 and 0.2 for Uff (initial state).

According to Table 3, applying Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of the initial
state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix). Answer:

to. Find the probability that each user will remain with the mobile company for the next 4
periods.

PERIOD 1

STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB AVANTEL UFF

TIGO 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,1 0,1 0,1
COMCEL 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,1
MOVISTAR 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2 0
ETB 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,2
AVANTEL 0,1 0,15 0,35 0,1 0,1 0,2
UFF 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0 0,2

PERIOD 2

STATE STATE PROBABILIDAD

TIGO 0,1 TIGO 0,21
COMCEL 0,2 COMCEL 0,15
MOVISTAR 0,3 MOVISTAR 0,17
ETB 0,1 ETB 0,19
AVANTEL 0,1 AVANTEL 0,205
UFF 0,2 UFF 0,18
PERIOD 3

Exercise 4. Markov chains (multiplication of initial state):

Suppose you get 4 types of soft drinks in the market: Colombian, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and
Coca Cola when a person has bought Colombian, there is a probability that he will continue
to consume 40%, 20% of which Pepsi Cola will buy, 10 % that Fanta buys and 30% that
consumes Coca Cola; when the buyer currently consumes Pepsi Cola, there is a probability
that he will continue to buy 30%, 20% Colombian, 20% that Fanta consumes and 30%
Coca Cola; If Fanta is currently consumed, the probability that it will continue to be
consumed is 20%, 40% buy Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola and 20% go to Coca
Cola. If you currently use Coca Cola, the probability of continuing to consume is 50%, 20%
buy Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola and 10% pass to Fanta.

At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the following
percentages in market share respectively (30%, 20%, 10% and 40%) during week 3.

According to the data applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of the initial
state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix). Answer:
Find the transition matrix.
COLOMBIANA PEPSI FANTA COCA COLA
COLOMBIANA 0,45 0,15 0,1 0,3
PEPSI 0,2 0,4 0,1 0,3
FANTA 0,2 0,2 0,5 0,1
COCA COLA 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,6

PARTICIPACION 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,4

yes. Find the probability that each user remains with the brand or changes to another during
periods S 4, 5, 6 and period 7.
PERIOD 2
 COLOMBIANA PEPSI FANTA COCA COLA
COLOMBIANA 0,3125 0,1775 0,14 0,37
PEPSI 0,23 0,26 0,14 0,37
FANTA 0,25 0,22 0,3 0,23
COCA COLA 0,185 0,215 0,14 0,46

PARTICIPACION 0,25 0,21 0,14 0,4

PERIOD 3

COLOMBIANA PEPSI FANTA COCA COLA

COLOMBIANA 0,233625 0,227375 0,156 0,383
PEPSI 0,218 0,243 0,156 0,383
FANTA 0,237 0,234 0,22 0,309
COCA COLA 0,19525 0,23875 0,156 0,41

PARTICIPACION 0,2125 0,2395 0,156 0,392

PERIOD 4

COLOMBIANA PEPSI FANTA COCA COLA

COLOMBIANA 0,17385 0,213575 0,163 0,449575
PEPSI 0,2075 0,2335 0,163 0,396
FANTA 0,213 0,245 0,165 0,377
COCA COLA 0,2075 0,240375 0,163 0,389125

PARTICIPACION 0,2005 0,2275 0,1835 0,3885

PERIOD 5

COLOMBIANA PEPSI FANTA COCA COLA

COLOMBIANA 0,1645 0,1903 0,1745 0,4707
PEPSI 0,1905 0,2175 0,1745 0,4175
FANTA 0,2073 0,2328 0,182 0,3779
COCA COLA 0,1943 0,2207 0,1785 0,4065

PARTICIPACION 0,1927 0,2186 0,192575 0,396125

PERIOD 6
 COLOMBIANAPEPSI FANTA COCA COLA
COLOMBIANA 0,1576 0,1892 0,1805 0,4727
PEPSI 0,1871 0,2104 0,1805 0,422
FANTA 0,2002 0,2185 0,1975 0,3838
COCA COLA 0,1768 0,2186 0,1893 0,4153

PARTICIPACION 0,1902 0,2045 0,207525 0,397775

PERIOD 7

COLOMBIANAPEPSI FANTA COCA COLA

COLOMBIANA 0,152375 0,182535 0,187525 0,477565
PEPSI 0,182535 0,208375 0,187525 0,421565
FANTA 0,197325 0,207525 0,200325 0,394825
COCA COLA 0,175375 0,210535 0,192505 0,421585

PARTICIPACION 0,1875 0,198525 0,202535 0,41144

EVIDENCIA

b. Exercise 5. Markov chains (multiplication of initial state):

C.
Suppose you get 6 types of jeans brands in the Colombian market: brand 1, brand 2, brand
3, brand 4, brand 5 and brand 6. The following table shows the probabilities of continuing
to use the same brand or change it.

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 0,18 0,18 0,15 0,21 0,18 0,1
BRAND 2 0,14 0,18 0,2 0,19 0,15 0,14
BRAND 3 0,13 0,16 0,15 0,21 0,2 0,15
BRAND 4 0,22 0,16 0,18 0,2 0,18 0,06
BRAND 5 0,15 0,17 0,15 0,17 0,15 0,21

Currently, the brand has the following percentages in market share respectively (20%, 15%,
17%, 15%, 13% and 20%) during week 4.

According to the data applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of the initial
state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix). Answer:

to. Find the transition matrix.

MATRIZ DE TRANSICION
0,18 0,18 0,15 0,21 0,18 0,1
0,14 0,18 0,2 0,19 0,15 0,14
0,13 0,16 0,15 0,21 0,2 0,15
0,22 0,16 0,18 0,2 0,18 0,06
0,15 0,17 0,15 0,17 0,15 0,21
0,17 0,15 0,17 0,19 0,19 0,13

yes. Find the probability that each user remains with the brand or changes to another during
periods S 4, 5, 6 and period 7.

PERIOD 2
STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6
BRAND 1 0,168606 0,18414 0,146805 0,22113 0,19404 0,085279
BRAND 2 0,131138 0,18414 0,19574 0,20007 0,1617 0,127212
BRAND 3 0,121771 0,16368 0,146805 0,22113 0,2156 0,131014
BRAND 4 0,206074 0,16368 0,176166 0,2106 0,19404 0,04944
BRAND 5 0,140505 0,17391 0,146805 0,17901 0,1617 0,19807
BRAND 6 0,159239 0,15345 0,166379 0,20007 0,20482 0,116042
PROBABILIDAD 0,1684 0,165 0,168 0,164 0,17 0,1646

PERIOD 3
STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6
BRAND 1 0,15793324 0,18837522 0,14367805 0,23284989 0,20917512 0,06798848
BRAND 2 0,12283696 0,18837522 0,19157074 0,21067371 0,1743126 0,11223077
BRAND 3 0,1140629 0,16744464 0,14367805 0,23284989 0,2324168 0,10954772
BRAND 4 0,19302952 0,16744464 0,17241366 0,2217618 0,20917512 0,03617526
BRAND 5 0,13161103 0,17790993 0,14367805 0,18849753 0,1743126 0,18399085
BRAND 6 0,14915917 0,15697935 0,16283513 0,21067371 0,22079596 0,09955668
PROBABILIDAD 0,1665476 0,168795 0,164724 0,167772 0,1955 0,1366614

PERIOD 4

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 0,14793607 0,19270785 0,14061771 0,24519093 0,22549078 0,04805666
BRAND 2 0,11506138 0,19270785 0,18749028 0,22183942 0,18790898 0,09499208
BRAND 3 0,10684271 0,17129587 0,14061771 0,24519093 0,25054531 0,08550746
BRAND 4 0,18081075 0,17129587 0,16874125 0,23351518 0,22549078 0,02014618
BRAND 5 0,12328006 0,18200186 0,14061771 0,1984879 0,18790898 0,16770349
BRAND 6 0,1397174 0,16058988 0,15936674 0,22183942 0,23801804 0,08046853
PROBABILIDAD 0,16471558 0,17267729 0,16151188 0,17163076 0,224825 0,1046395

PERIOD 5

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 0,13857171 0,19714013 0,13762255 0,25818605 0,24307906 0,02540049
BRAND 2 0,107778 0,19714013 0,18349674 0,23359691 0,20256588 0,07542234
BRAND 3 0,10007957 0,17523567 0,13762255 0,25818605 0,27008784 0,05878831
BRAND 4 0,16936543 0,17523567 0,16514706 0,24589148 0,24307906 0,0012813
BRAND 5 0,11547643 0,1861879 0,13762255 0,20900776 0,20256588 0,14913948
BRAND 6 0,13087328 0,16428344 0,15597223 0,23359691 0,25658345 0,05869069
PROBABILIDAD 0,16290371 0,17664886 0,1583624 0,17557826 0,25854875 0,06795802

PERIOD 6

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 0,12980012 0,20167435 0,13469119 0,27186991 0,26203923 -7,4812E-05
BRAND 2 0,10095565 0,20167435 0,17958826 0,24597754 0,21836602 0,05343817
BRAND 3 0,09374453 0,17926609 0,13469119 0,27186991 0,2911547 0,02927357
BRAND 4 0,1586446 0,17926609 0,16162943 0,25892373 0,26203923 -0,02050307
BRAND 5 0,10816677 0,19047022 0,13469119 0,22008517 0,21836602 0,12822062
BRAND 6 0,12258901 0,16806196 0,15265002 0,24597754 0,27659696 0,03412451
PROBABILIDAD 0,16111176 0,18071179 0,15527433 0,17961656 0,29733106 0,02595449

PERIOD 7
STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6
BRAND 1 0,12807378 0,20570784 0,13182227 0,27268552 0,27514119 -0,01343061
BRAND 2 0,09961294 0,20570784 0,17576303 0,24671547 0,22928432 0,04291639
BRAND 3 0,09249773 0,18285141 0,13182227 0,27268552 0,30571243 0,01443063
BRAND 4 0,15653462 0,18285141 0,15818673 0,2597005 0,27514119 -0,03241445
BRAND 5 0,10672815 0,19427963 0,13182227 0,22074542 0,22928432 0,1171402
BRAND 6 0,12095857 0,1714232 0,14939857 0,24671547 0,29042681 0,02107737
PROBABILIDAD 0,15933953 0,18486816 0,15224648 0,18374774 0,31219762 0,00760046

EVIDENCIA

Exercise 6. Use of the practical learning environment. Collaborative activity

Enter the practical environment, in this space videos are presented for the use of the
Excel Solver add-on and practical tutorials to develop the proposed activities,
remember

to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the table of income and
results of the Exercises. In this same space you can carefully review the Guide for
the use of educational resources.
The group leader must upload to the evaluation and monitoring environment a
single file in PDF format that consolidates the contributions of all participants in the
space called Phase 6. Unit 3.

Bibliography
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Dynkin, E. (1982). Procesos de Markov y problemas de análisis
relacionados: Oxford, Reino Unido: Mathematical Institute Editorial. Recuperado
de  http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?
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