0% found this document useful (0 votes)
80 views45 pages

Unit 4: Production Decline Analysis: Prepared By: MR Saddam Al-Sadi

The document discusses production decline analysis and three common decline models: exponential, harmonic, and hyperbolic. It focuses on the exponential decline model, providing the relative decline rate and production rate decline equations derived from volumetric reservoir modeling. It describes how to determine the decline rate constant from production rate and cumulative production data by plotting the values on semi-log or linear graphs and calculating the slope. The effective decline rate is also introduced to simplify calculations. An example problem demonstrates applying the exponential decline model to predict future production rates and amounts.

Uploaded by

jeed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
80 views45 pages

Unit 4: Production Decline Analysis: Prepared By: MR Saddam Al-Sadi

The document discusses production decline analysis and three common decline models: exponential, harmonic, and hyperbolic. It focuses on the exponential decline model, providing the relative decline rate and production rate decline equations derived from volumetric reservoir modeling. It describes how to determine the decline rate constant from production rate and cumulative production data by plotting the values on semi-log or linear graphs and calculating the slope. The effective decline rate is also introduced to simplify calculations. An example problem demonstrates applying the exponential decline model to predict future production rates and amounts.

Uploaded by

jeed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 45

Unit 4: Production

Decline Analysis

Prepared by: Mr
Saddam Al-Sadi
2

Introduction
›  Production decline analysis: is a traditional means of
identifying well production problems and predicting well
performance and life based on real production data.

›  It uses empirical decline models that have little


fundamental justifications.

›  These models include:


v  Exponential decline (constant fractional decline)
v  Harmonic decline,
v  Hyperbolic decline.

›  While the hyperbolic decline model is more general,


the other two models are degenerations of the
hyperbolic decline model. Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
3

Introduction
›  Thesethree models are related through the following
relative decline rate equation:

›  (Equ.1)

›  where b and d are empirical constants to be


determined based on production data.
›  When d = 0, Eq (1) degenerates to an exponential
decline model,
›  and when d = 1, Eq (1) yields a harmonic decline model.
›  When 0 < d < 1, Eq (1) derives a hyperbolic decline
model.
›  The decline models are applicable to both oil and gas
wells. Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
4

Exponential Decline

›  The relative decline rate and production rate


decline equations for the exponential decline
model can be derived from volumetric reservoir
model.

›  Cumulative production expression is obtained by


integrating the production rate decline equation.

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
5

Exponential Decline/Relative
Decline Rate
›  Consider an oil well drilled in a volumetric oil reservoir.
›  Suppose the well’s production rate starts to decline when a
critical (lowest permissible) bottom hole pressure is reached.
›  Under the pseudo-steady state flow condition, the production
rate at a given decline time t can be expressed as:

›  (Equ.2)

›  where Pt = average reservoir pressure at decline time t,


›  PCwf = the critical bottom hole pressure maintained during
the production decline. Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
6

Exponential Decline/Relative Decline


Rate
The cumulative oil production of the well after
the production decline time t can be expressed
as:

›  (Equ.3)

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
7

Exponential Decline/Relative
Decline Rate
The cumulative oil production after the production
decline upon decline time t can also be evaluated
based on the total reservoir compressibility:
›  (Equ.4)

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
8

Exponential Decline/Relative Decline


Rate
›  Substituting Equ. 3 into Equ. 4 yields:

›  (Equ.5)

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
9

Exponential Decline/Relative
Decline Rate
›  Taking derivative on both sides of this equation with
respect to time t gives the differential equation for
reservoir pressure:

›  (Equ.6)

›  Since the left-hand-side of this equation is q and


Eq (8.2) gives

›  (Equ.7)
10

Exponential Decline/Relative Decline


Rate
›  Equ.6 becomes:

›  (Equ.8)

›  or the relative decline rate equation of .

›  (Equ.9)

›  Where:

›  (Equ.10)
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
11

Exponential Decline/Production Rate


Decline
›  Equation (6) can be expressed as:

›  (Equ.11)

›  By
separation of variables, Eq (11) can be
integrated:

›  (Equ.12)
›  to yield an equation for reservoir pressure
decline:
›  (Equ.13) Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
12

Exponential Decline/Production Rate


Decline
›  Substituting
Eq (13) into Eq (2) gives well production
rate decline equation:

›  (Equ.14)

›  Or

›  (Equ.15)

›  whichis the exponential decline model commonly


used for production decline analysis of solution-gas-
drive reservoirs. Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
13

Exponential Decline/Production Rate


Decline
›  In practice, the following form of Eq (15) is used:

›  (Equ.16)

›  where qi is the production rate at t = 0.

›  It can be shown that

›  That
is, the fractional decline is constant for
exponential decline
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
14

Exponential Decline/Cumulative
Production
›  Integration of Eq (16) over time gives an expression for
the cumulative oil production since decline of

›  (Equ.17)

i.e.,

›  (Equ.18)

›  Equ.18 becomes:

›  (Equ.19)
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
15

Exponential Decline/Determination of
Decline Rate
›  Theconstant b is called the continuous decline
rate. Its value can be determined from
production history data.

›  If
production rate and time data are available,
the b-value can be obtained based on the slope
of the straight line on a semi-log plot.

›  In fact, taking logarithm of Eq (16) gives:

›  (Equ.20) Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
16

Exponential Decline/Determination of
Decline Rate
›  which implies that the data should form a straight line
with a slope of -b on the log(q) versus t plot, if
exponential decline is the right model.
›  Picking up any two points, (t1, q1) and (t2, q2), on the
straight line will allow analytical determination of b-
value because

›  (Equ.21)

and

›  (Equ.22)

›  Gives (Equ.23)


17

Exponential Decline/Determination of
Decline Rate
›  If
production rate and cumulative production data
are available, the b-value can be obtained based on
the slope of the straight line on an Np versus q plot. In
fact, rearranging Eq (19) yields:

(Equ.24)
›  Picking up any two points, (Np1, q1) and (Np2, q2), on
the straight line will allow analytical determination of
b-value because
(Equ.25)
And
(Equ.26)

›  Give
(Equ.27)
18

Exponential Decline/Determination of
Decline Rate
›  Depending on the unit of time t, the b can have
different units such as month-1 and year-1. The
following relation can be derived:

›  (Equ.28)

›  whereba, bm, and bd are annual, monthly, and


daily decline rates.

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
19

Exponential Decline/Effective Decline


Rate
›  Because the exponential function is not easy to
use in hand calculations, traditionally the
effective decline rate has been used.

›  Since for small x-values based on


Taylor’s expansion , holds true for small
values of b. The b is substituted by b’ , the
effective decline rate, in field applications. Thus
Eq (16) becomes:

›  (Equ.29)
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
20

Exponential Decline/Effective Decline


Rate
›  Again, it can be shown that

›  Depending on the unit of time t, the b’ can have


different units such as month-1 and year-1. The
following relation can be derived:

(Equ.30)
›  Where: are annual, monthly, and
daily effective decline rates
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
21

Example Problem 1:
›  Giventhat a well has declined from 100 stb/day
to 96 stb/day during a one-month period, use the
exponential decline model to perform the
following tasks:
a)  Predict the production rate after 11 more months
b)  Calculate the amount of oil produced during the
first year
c)  Project the yearly production for the well for the
next 5 years.

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
22
23

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
24

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
25

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
26

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
27

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
28

Harmonic Decline
›  Whend = 1, Eq (1) yields differential equation for
a harmonic decline model:

(Equ.31)

›  which can be integrated as

(Equ.32)

where q0 is the production rate at t = 0.


Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
29

Harmonic Decline
›  Expression
for the cumulative production is
obtained by integration:

›  which gives:

(Equ.33)
›  Combining Eqs (32) and (33) gives

›  (Equ.34)
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
30

Hyperbolic Decline
›  When 0 < d < 1, integration of Eq (1) gives:

(Equ.35)

›  which results in

(Equ.36)

›  Or

(Equ.37)

›  where a = 1/d. Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
31

Hyperbolic Decline
›  Expression
for the cumulative production is
obtained by integration:

›  which gives:

(Equ.38)
›  Combining Eqs (8.37) and (8.38) gives

(Equ.39)
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
32

Model Identification
›  Production data can be plotted in different ways
to identify a representative decline model.

›  If
the plot of log(q) versus t shows a straight line
(Figure 1), according to Eq (20), the decline data
follow an exponential decline model.

›  If
the plot of q versus Np shows a straight line
(Figure 2), according to Eq (24), an exponential
decline model should be adopted.
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
33

Model Identification
›  If the plot of log(q) versus log(t) shows a straight line
(Figure 3), according to Eq (32), the decline data
follow a harmonic decline model.

›  If the plot of Np versus log(q) shows a straight line


(Figure 4), according to Eq (34), the harmonic decline
model should be used.

›  Ifno straight line is seen in these plots, the hyperbolic


decline model may be verified by plotting the relative
decline rate defined by Eq (1).
›  Figure5 shows such a plot. This work can be easily
performed with computer program UcomS.exe.
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
34

Figure 1: A Semilog plot of q Figure 2: A plot of Np versus q


versus t indicating an indicating an exponential
exponential decline decline
Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
35

Figure 3: A plot of log(q) versus Figure 4: A plot of Np versus


log(t) indicating a harmonic log(q) indicating a harmonic
decline decline Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
36

Figure 5: A plot of relative decline rate versus production rate


37

Determination of Model Parameters


›  Oncea decline model is identified, the model
parameters a and b can be determined by fitting
the data to the selected model.

›  For
the exponential decline model, the b-value
can be estimated on the basis of the slope of the
straight line in the plot of log(q) versus t (Eq 23).

›  The
b-value can also be determined based on
the slope of the straight line in the plot of q versus
Np (Eq 27). Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
38

Determination of Model Parameters


›  For
the harmonic decline model, the b-value can be
estimated on the basis of the slope of the straight line
in the plot of log(q) versus log(t) shows a straight line,
or Eq (32):

›  The
b-value can also be estimated based on the
slope of the straight line in the plot of Np versus log(q)
(Eq 34).

›  For
the hyperbolic decline model, determination of a-
and b-values is of a little tedious. The procedure is
shown in Figure 6. Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
39

Figure 8: Procedure for determining a- and b-values


40

Example Problem 2:

For the data given in


Table 1,
›  identify a suitable
decline model,
›  determine model
parameters,
›  and project
production rate
until a marginal
rate of 25 stb/day
is reached.
Table-1 Production Data for Example Problem 2
41

Example Problem 2:
Solution:
›  A plot of log(q) versus t is presented in Figure 7
which shows a straight line.

›  Accordingto Eq (20), the exponential decline


model is applicable.

›  This
is further evidenced by the relative decline
rate shown in Figure 8.

Petroleum Production Engineering-2


Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
42

Figure 7: A plot of log(q) versus t showing an exponential decline


43

Figure 8: Relative decline rate plot showing exponential decline


44

Example Problem 2 Solution cont.


›  Select points on the trend line:
t1= 5 months, q1 = 607 STB/D
t2= 20 months, q2 = 135 STB/D
›  Decline rate is calculated with Eq (23):

›  Projected production rate profile is shown in


Figure 9. Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi
45

Figure 9: Projected production rate by an exponential decline


model Petroleum Production Engineering-2
Mr. Saddam Al-Sadi

You might also like