Unit 4: Production Decline Analysis: Prepared By: MR Saddam Al-Sadi
Unit 4: Production Decline Analysis: Prepared By: MR Saddam Al-Sadi
Decline Analysis
Prepared by: Mr
Saddam Al-Sadi
2
Introduction
Production decline analysis: is a traditional means of
identifying well production problems and predicting well
performance and life based on real production data.
Introduction
Thesethree models are related through the following
relative decline rate equation:
(Equ.1)
Exponential Decline
Exponential Decline/Relative
Decline Rate
Consider an oil well drilled in a volumetric oil reservoir.
Suppose the well’s production rate starts to decline when a
critical (lowest permissible) bottom hole pressure is reached.
Under the pseudo-steady state flow condition, the production
rate at a given decline time t can be expressed as:
(Equ.2)
(Equ.3)
Exponential Decline/Relative
Decline Rate
The cumulative oil production after the production
decline upon decline time t can also be evaluated
based on the total reservoir compressibility:
(Equ.4)
(Equ.5)
Exponential Decline/Relative
Decline Rate
Taking derivative on both sides of this equation with
respect to time t gives the differential equation for
reservoir pressure:
(Equ.6)
(Equ.7)
10
(Equ.8)
(Equ.9)
Where:
(Equ.10)
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(Equ.11)
By
separation of variables, Eq (11) can be
integrated:
(Equ.12)
to yield an equation for reservoir pressure
decline:
(Equ.13) Petroleum Production Engineering-2
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(Equ.14)
Or
(Equ.15)
(Equ.16)
That
is, the fractional decline is constant for
exponential decline
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Exponential Decline/Cumulative
Production
Integration of Eq (16) over time gives an expression for
the cumulative oil production since decline of
(Equ.17)
i.e.,
(Equ.18)
(Equ.19)
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Exponential Decline/Determination of
Decline Rate
Theconstant b is called the continuous decline
rate. Its value can be determined from
production history data.
If
production rate and time data are available,
the b-value can be obtained based on the slope
of the straight line on a semi-log plot.
Exponential Decline/Determination of
Decline Rate
which implies that the data should form a straight line
with a slope of -b on the log(q) versus t plot, if
exponential decline is the right model.
Picking up any two points, (t1, q1) and (t2, q2), on the
straight line will allow analytical determination of b-
value because
(Equ.21)
and
(Equ.22)
Exponential Decline/Determination of
Decline Rate
If
production rate and cumulative production data
are available, the b-value can be obtained based on
the slope of the straight line on an Np versus q plot. In
fact, rearranging Eq (19) yields:
(Equ.24)
Picking up any two points, (Np1, q1) and (Np2, q2), on
the straight line will allow analytical determination of
b-value because
(Equ.25)
And
(Equ.26)
Give
(Equ.27)
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Exponential Decline/Determination of
Decline Rate
Depending on the unit of time t, the b can have
different units such as month-1 and year-1. The
following relation can be derived:
(Equ.28)
(Equ.29)
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(Equ.30)
Where: are annual, monthly, and
daily effective decline rates
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Example Problem 1:
Giventhat a well has declined from 100 stb/day
to 96 stb/day during a one-month period, use the
exponential decline model to perform the
following tasks:
a) Predict the production rate after 11 more months
b) Calculate the amount of oil produced during the
first year
c) Project the yearly production for the well for the
next 5 years.
Harmonic Decline
Whend = 1, Eq (1) yields differential equation for
a harmonic decline model:
(Equ.31)
(Equ.32)
Harmonic Decline
Expression
for the cumulative production is
obtained by integration:
(Equ.33)
Combining Eqs (32) and (33) gives
(Equ.34)
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Hyperbolic Decline
When 0 < d < 1, integration of Eq (1) gives:
(Equ.35)
(Equ.36)
Or
(Equ.37)
Hyperbolic Decline
Expression
for the cumulative production is
obtained by integration:
(Equ.38)
Combining Eqs (8.37) and (8.38) gives
(Equ.39)
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Model Identification
Production data can be plotted in different ways
to identify a representative decline model.
If
the plot of log(q) versus t shows a straight line
(Figure 1), according to Eq (20), the decline data
follow an exponential decline model.
If
the plot of q versus Np shows a straight line
(Figure 2), according to Eq (24), an exponential
decline model should be adopted.
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Model Identification
If the plot of log(q) versus log(t) shows a straight line
(Figure 3), according to Eq (32), the decline data
follow a harmonic decline model.
For
the exponential decline model, the b-value
can be estimated on the basis of the slope of the
straight line in the plot of log(q) versus t (Eq 23).
The
b-value can also be determined based on
the slope of the straight line in the plot of q versus
Np (Eq 27). Petroleum Production Engineering-2
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The
b-value can also be estimated based on the
slope of the straight line in the plot of Np versus log(q)
(Eq 34).
For
the hyperbolic decline model, determination of a-
and b-values is of a little tedious. The procedure is
shown in Figure 6. Petroleum Production Engineering-2
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Example Problem 2:
Example Problem 2:
Solution:
A plot of log(q) versus t is presented in Figure 7
which shows a straight line.
This
is further evidenced by the relative decline
rate shown in Figure 8.