Where Next?: Petrobras and The Market Mulls The Next Move
Where Next?: Petrobras and The Market Mulls The Next Move
Wave
August 2015 Issue: 48
where next?
Petrobras and the market
mulls the next move
01 Contents
3 Operator Update
4 Crisis, Not Just a Brazilian Privilege
8 Petrobras News
10 Vessel News
12 Drilling & Production
14 Look Ahead
16 Inside Story
18 Spotlight
20 É Isso Aí
Petrobras leveraging
The 2Q/2015 results recently released by Petrobras the ratio is on 51%, 1% down from 1Q/2015, but far
are not very bright, as for instance the decline on the from the 40% one year ago and the 17% “comfort
oil giant profit. The leveraging however, which is the limit” or the 35% maximum limit established by the
relation between the net debt and net assets, calls company. Insolvency?
special attention. According to the financial statement
O
dropped from USD 110/barrel in Therefore, the average daily rates
ver the last year the presi- Jan/2014 to USD 48/barrel in mid of the PSVs and AHTSs shown be-
dential elections took place Aug/2015, which is far from the low are exclusively from spot and
and Dilma Rousseff was ideal investing scenario of most term contract fixed with drillers,
reelected, constant pro- of the major oil companies. Now bunkering companies and IOCs.
tests soon followed which speaking of average OSV daily Demand has not been constant
are destabilizing the government rates, what can they tell us about throughout this period, having ac-
allegedly due to an unpopular or the situation of each key region- tivity peaks concentrated between
even paradoxical agenda. Adding al market? We have elected only Feb-June 2014 and May-Jun 2015,
to this is the “Lava-Jato” investi- PSVs between 600 and 900 square nonetheless the daily rates which
gation involving several major Bra- meters of free deck area, and PSVs were stable for a long while before
zilian companies and senior politi- above 900 square meters of free 2014 are now facing a constant re-
cians, deeply impacting Petrobras deck area, as well as AHTS with duction. PSVs 4500 rates dropped
businesses in the long term, and around 15000 BHP and AHTS with 11.4% and PSV 3000 dropped
consequently the offshore sup- around 18000 BHP in order to 16.1%, while AHTS 15000 and
port market. Locally many people focus on the most employed types 18000 rates dropped on the same
blame the current crisis of the oil of OSVs throughout those markets pace of 14.3% due to larger ton-
and gas and the OSV industry and to simplify our analysis. nage availability and competition
exclusively on the aforementioned on the spot, after Petrobras flooded
issues, which in truth only apply to Brazil the market by releasing almost
Brazil. Absorbed in our own “bub- As cited before, our market has 30 vessels (most of them foreign
ble”, sometimes it is hard to see been facing all kinds of threats, in- flagged) after their contracts were
beyond it and see that the entire cluding political crisis, corruption not extended. Most of these ves-
world is going through tough times scandals and economic recession, sels already left Brazil, as the low
as well… which recently caused Moody’s demand does not justify the high
With the support of our global Investors Service to cut Brazil’s costs of keeping them here. The
Westshore offices and IHS-Petro- credit rating to near-junk status, only aspect that may attenuate
data, we gathered information but keeping the country’s coveted this scenario is the Brazilian Real
from the last 18 months about av- investment grade status safe “for depreciation in about -30%, which
erage OSV daily rates and supply/ now”. In this environment, Petro- increases the shipowners’ income
demand ratio to demonstrate the bras has not hired any vessels even with the USD rate decrease,
impact suffered by the industry. through tenders in the last eigh- but not proportionally as there are
With regards to the oil price level, teen months, even though it has a many imported costs and some
which is common to all the mar- few slow paced tenders still open, foreign personnel.
kets, the crude oil (brent) price to be concluded hopefully soon.
06
West Africa for PSVs 4500 and a slightly increasing line for PSV
The oversupply is the major challenge for shipown-
ers in West Africa, with too many vessels competing 3000, but if we only see the rates from Dec/2014
for the available work, leading to lower day rates. until Jun/2015, they have decreased about 7%. In
Some long-term deals were fixed during the first se- regard to AHTS, the demand has been steady, but
mester of this year, showing that there is still plenty with the arrival of more AHTS 12000, the rates have
demand for OSVs in the region; however, the over- reduced in 22% for this vessel type, while for AHTS
supply of tonnage, caused by more vessels coming in 15000 the rates increased until the end of 2014 and
than going out of West Africa, has been keeping the have been steady since then, as lesser vessels of this
daily rates low. The graph shows a steady trend line type are coming into the market.
08 Headline News
I
n a nutshell, after analyzing the combination of the
oversupply of OSVs, the down turn in oil prices,
and the cut back on offshore spending, it is possi-
ble to say that the light in the end of the tunnel is
not bright and close enough just yet. A sustained
improvement in the price of oil, not expected by many
specialists within the next two years or so, may induce
special thanks to
an OSV market upturn only after 2017. And in Brazil, ihs-petrodata for
government and Petrobras should take this valuable contributionsto
time to do their homework and fight all the local is-
sues. Then, when the right time comes, Brazilians will this article
not be able to blame the country’s peculiarities or the
global crisis, and will finally focus on growth.
09 Petrobras News
vessel news
FARSTAD – Albeit currently avail-
able, Brazilian built and flagged
CHOUEST – Brazilian built and
recently delivered PSV Bram Hero
with Petrobras and are currently
available in Brazil, searching op-
AHTS BOS Turquesa has been has been delivered to Petrobras for portunities. Vessels have 87 tons of
kept busy in the last month, with the commencement of its 8 years bollard pull, DP2 and FiFi1.
two fuel runs being performed for firm contract.
World Fuel Services / Tramp Oil WILSON SONS – Brazilian flagged
and one anchor handling fixture to PSVs 3000 Saveiros Albatroz,
Queiroz Galvão O&G.
TIDEWATER – Brazilian built and
flagged OSRV Danko Tide has been Saveiros Fragata and Saveiros
extended on her term contract with Gaivota had their current con-
CBO – Brazilian built and flagged Shell Brasil after a competitive tracts with Petrobras extended
CBO Campos is expected to com- process. until October 2015. Meanwhile, the
mence its charter with DeepOcean newbuilds PSVs 3500 Pardela and
in early September after conclu- Pinguim were delivered this month
sion of her adaptation at yard. The
OCEANPACT – PSV Carmen has by the shipyard in China and are
been fixed to Fugro in Brazil for a in route to Brazil, with expected
CBO Guanabara is currently going
10-day firm opportunity to support arrival in January and February
through regular docking and will
Metocean buoys launching in Cam- 2016, respectively, and will be
be available in mid-September
pos Basin, for end client Repsol available for charter. Both vessels
for spot and term opportunities
Sinopec. have DP2, FiFi1, Oilrec Class 1,
together with also Brazilian built
and flagged CBO Valentina, which 700m2 of free deck area, and ac-
has completed one cargo run on the VARADA – AHTSs 6000 Varada Ip- commodation for 48 people.
spot market to Ensco. anema and Varada Buzios recently
concluded their long term contracts
11 Vessel News
6
AHTS spot fixtures in
CHOUEST – Brazilian built and SEALION – PSV Toisa Crest has
flagged PSV Campos Clipper and July been released by Petrobras at the
PSV Santos Sailor have been laid end of the term period of its con-
4
up in south Brazil after being rede- tract and is en-route to Port Eliza-
livered by Petrobras. beth where the vessel is expected
to remain until future opportunity
secured.
DOF – After a competitive negotia-
tion with alternative AHTS Statoil
Brazil have decided to extend its
PSV spot fixtures in July OCEANPACT – OSRV Maricá has
current contract with Skandi Pere- become available after conclusion
grino, DOF´s multi-purpose vessel of her term contract with Repsol.
bult for Statoil and named after
its Peregrino field. The term of the
new contract starts in December
BRAVANTE – PSVs Bravante V and
Bravante VII have been reflagged
this year until December 2017.
to Brazilian Flag (REB) and are
ready for employment, also aiming
BUMI ARMADA – AHTS Armada opportunities with oil major Petro-
Tuah 104 has left Brazil after its bras. Bravante VI and Bravante
contract with Petrobras came to VIII remain under original foreign
the end of its 4 years firm. flag.
N
o doubt the biggest The ANP have until September strates that on the fight between
challenge faced by ANP 2nd to validate the subscriptions the agency and the government,
for the 13th round is to and confirm which companies ANP has succeeded.
attract candidates to fulfill the requirements to join Other changes however have
invest in concessions in the bid. The 13th round remains generated negative impact. ANP
Brazil while the world is facing scheduled for 7th October in Rio has removed the arbitration
a low oil price and the country de Janeiro, Brazil. clause from the unification of
fights an important political The blocks on this round are dis- blocks, under the perception
arrest. The economy, locally and tributed in 10 oil basins, includ- that most discussions between
globally is not helping either. ing high profile blocks as well as companies deal with taxation,
In the middle of all that, Au- new exploratory areas to im- and that such discussions
gust 11th was the deadline for prove the exploratory margins. are not be held privately, but
candidates to subscribe to the Areas in Espirito Santo and through Brazil´s courts.
oil round for new concessions Campos basins are included. The National Petroleum Insti-
in Brazil. On August 12th ANP In order to mitigate the econom- tute (IBP) demonstrated high
released further information ic and political scenarios and in- dissatisfaction with the contract
and 39 companies have enrolled crease the interest of candidates, model of this oil round having
in the process, more than on the ANP has promoted some chang- classified it as “the worst con-
12th round. es on the bid, amongst which tract model of all times”.
reviewing the PEM (Minimum ANP on the other hands believes
Exploratory Programme), reduc- that Brazil remains an attrac-
ing the guarantees demanded tive market for all companies,
on the offer to lower costs and major and new players altogeth-
attract other players, and a tim- er, and that the round will be
id but relevant reduction on the successful. “Companies have to
local content demand for drilling replenish its reserves and access
rigs now set at 10%. to oil resources. Companies are
Reducing the local content used to deal with oil fluctua-
demand does not generate the tions”, said Magda Chambriard,
needed impact, but demon- ANP director, a few days ago.
16
T
here’s enough bad news case for offshore support vessels, production and injection wells, we
surrounding the offshore but a sourcing strategy for the are likely to see over 200 wells in
support business and whole oil major. the expected fields. With average
the Petrobras contracts. As for vessel demand, considering well days between 60 and 80 per
Indeed, not in recent that Petrobras is not divesting well, each rig is capable of drilling
history we have seen such arrest from any of the production assets around 6 wells per year. Around
on vessel charter as the current in the short run – therefore main- 35 rigs in service are needed.
blocking of foreign flagged ships taining the demand for offshore Petrobras estimates working with
and the Brazilian tonnage not support; there is a dozen new pro- 40 on the business plan.
anywhere near being contracted. duction assets to come on stream. For the contracted production
As one local vessel may block as In 2016, 2017 and 2018 respec- projects alone, we forecast 100
many foreign flag ships until it is tively, Petrobras will bring on vessels (large PSVs and AHTSs +
employed, it’s a recipe for disaster. stream 4, 5 and 8 FPSOs in each OSRVs) are needed, complement-
The business plan released by year – all contracted. For 2016 6 ed by another 100 on the already
Petrobras in June according to units are forecasted, 3 of which live campaigns – inclusing per-
market experts has been pub- already contracted and 3 to go out manent drilling rigs working on
lished to satisfy a demand, and for tender. The 3 units to be ten- exploration in E&P.
clearly does not deliver a realistic dered are onerous section Sophia The reality is then, with practi-
scenario for 2015. and Buzios, and yet another unit cally one year gone by where no
Petrobras is actively working on a for the revitalization of Marlim. vessels were procured, all vessels
new business plan to be approved Production is cash for Petrobras to be renewed are being released
by the board of directors in Oc- and the highest priority for the and the activity has come to a
tober and all going well by the company. 2015 with the release historical low, Petrobras will have
counsel in November. Worst case of several rigs on exploratory and to compensate shortly to be ready
scenario this will come out in De- development activities has been a to get back on track. Our sourc-
cember. Several points are being very weak year, and will continue es seem very confident that the
discussed, amongst the most po- to be. Petrobras cannot afford to new business plan including the
lemic the internal restructuring, receive these many FPSOs and internal restructuring will come
or for the lack of better wording, not have the wells live – consid- on stream by year-end and from
the streamlining of business. It is ering that most of the equipment this point onwards we shall see a
very likely that 3 logistics busi- (well heads, WXTs etc) is also deflection from the current sce-
ness units will co-exist, for San- all purchased. To achieve these nario. It is hope aligned with real
tos, Campos and Espírito Santo, production targets, Petrobras will data in attempt to demonstrate
with faster, non-centralized deci- need to increase the explorato- how and when the crisis cycle may
sions being made. The contracts ry and the development activity come to an end.
are also likely to be shortened to again by 3Q 2016. The market and Petrobras really
allow more flexibility to demobi- The math is yet simple. Consid- hope so.
lize. This is not exclusively the ering 15 wells per unit, between
18
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Spotlight
the interview
Having six vessels presently of the issues they address. There
operating on long-time time-charter is low dialogue to resolve a fine
with Petrobras, what are the main that has been issued against the
challenges in the Brazilian offshore vessel and the contract managers
do not seem to have the delegation
market? from the charterer to withdraw. An
The main challenge is that
environment is created whereby
the contracts do not resemble
internationally accepted charter
the owners act proactively to avoid
issues, unavoidably at fear of
Akis Tsirigakis
party contracts. Also, the federal CEO
receiving a fine, rather than focused
laws are interpreted differently by
each party in each jurisdiction. The on improving the service.
end-result is that operating costs in Mr Tsirigakis comes with
Brazil are much higher than need What do you expect for the future significant shipping experience
be for the same quality of service considering so many blockages in having been employed at senior
compared to international contracts. current scenario? and board level positions in
We understand this also impacts The law must be respected. In the firms such as Star Bulk Carriers,
Petrobras. In a way they are also end of the day it is a commercial Dryships Inc, Ocean Rig and
a victim of the current legal and decision by the charterer to resolve
Oceanbulk Maritime. He has an
contractual system in Brazil. the matter or terminate the foreign
vessel’s contract. Therefore it is a MSc in Naval Architecture from
What is your view regarding “solvable” problem. I trust that soon the University of Michigan and
downtime and fines applications on the situation will resolve itself as also has seagoing experience.
things return to normal and the oil Mr Tsirigakis took the position
the local market? price hopefully stabilizes at some
Overall the charterer becomes the of Chief Executive Officer at
level. However the uncertainty
arbiter of any contractual dispute, Nautilus in July 2011.
from the blockages will likely lead to
the charterer’s commercial views
higher charter rates being offered in
prevail. In addition, certain fines
future tenders by foreign owners.
are disproportional to the gravity
20 É Isso Aí
F
80000 tables
rom August 05th to 21st, the Rio de Janeiro
city will host the first Olympic Games in South
8400 shuttlecocks
America. Ten thousand athletes from 205
countries will be competing in 306 compe-
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161 for men and 9 mixed during 19 days. Sports
like Golf and Rugby are back in the competition 40000 chairs
after 112 and 92 years, respectively, being out of
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competition: 15 in Barra da Tijuca, 5 in Maracanã,
4 in Copacabana and 9 in Deodoro. Seven and a
half million tickets are for sale and a total of 138,000
people will be working in the Rio Olympic Commit-
tee to make it happen.
60000 hangers 40000 beds more than 40 horses