BusinessValuationModelingCoursePresentation 200527 140843
BusinessValuationModelingCoursePresentation 200527 140843
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Business Valuation
Modeling
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Table of Contents
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Learning Objectives
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Learning objectives
Understand the difference between Understand why comparable Understand why precedent transaction
equity and enterprise value and when company analysis is performed, the analysis is performed, the pros & cons
to use each of them pros & cons of it, and how to of it, and how to calculate the various
calculate the various ratios ratios
Understand what discounted cash flow Understand various factors impacting Understand how to effectively present
analysis is, how to calculate free cash valuation that cannot be discretely the results of valuation analysis
flow, WACC and NPV modeled
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CFI’s approach
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01.
Introduction to Business
Valuation Concepts
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Why perform valuation?
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Valuation is an art and a science
Valuation is based on expected future performance not past performance and involves:
An analysis of the financial Forecast the future operations Analysis of the industry
history and prospects of the of the business, project or asset
business, project or asset
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Valuation is an art and a science
Science Art
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Overview of financial valuation techniques
Valuing a business or
asset
Public company
Cost to build
comparables
Forecast future cash
flows
Replacement cost Precedent transactions
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Overview of financial valuation techniques
Valuation Summary
Valuation Summary–- Equity Value
Equity Value per per
ShareShare
($) ($)
55.00
$49.21
50.00
$44.00
45.00
40.00 $38.08
$36.00
35.00
$36.00 $30.00
30.00
25.00 $28.00
$24.81
20.00 $22.40 $22.00
15.00
10.00
Comps Precedents DCF - base case DCF - blue sky 52 wk hi/lo
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02.
Equity Value vs
Enterprise Value
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Enterprise value vs. equity value
Market value
Debt investors
of net debt
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House example
1 2 3
Debt $100k
Debt $250k
Debt $400k
House House House
Equity
$400k Equity
Equity $250k
$100k
Answer:
Question: $500,000. The funding mix for the house is
In each case what is the house worth? independent of the value of the house - this is
what enterprise value reflects for companies.
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Terminology
Firm Value
EV
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Terminology
Market Capitalization
Market Cap
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Net debt defined
It’s assumed the cash can be netted against any debt owed.
Cash is not an operating asset that generates cash flow.
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Negative net debt (net cash)
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03.
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Valuation using Equity and EV multiples
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Relative valuation - multiples
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Enterprise value vs. equity value
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Enterprise value vs. equity value
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Enterprise value vs. equity value
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XYZ Inc. financial statement extracts
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Calculating EV multiples
Question:
What is the enterprise value of XYZ Inc.?
Answer:
100m shares x 20.00 per share = 2,000m plus
300m in net debt = 2,300m
Question:
What are the implied EV to sales, EV to
EBITDA, EV to EBIT, EV to capital employed
and EV to free cash flow multiples?
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EV to sales multiple
EV EV EBIT or EBITDA
Sales EBIT or EBITDA Sales
2,300m
65% 2.3 times
650m
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EV to EBITDA and EBIT multiples
They are used more often than other EV multiples such as EV to sales or EV to Free Cash Flow
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EV to capital employed multiple
EV EV EBIT or EBITDA
CE EBIT or EBITDA CE
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Free cash flows to the firm
117
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EV to free cash flow multiple
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XYZ Inc. financial statement extracts
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Calculating equity multiples
Question:
What is the market capitalization of XYZ Inc.?
Answer:
100m shares x 20.00 per share = 2,000m
Question:
What are the implied price to earnings, price
to book and price to cash flow multiples?
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Price to earnings multiple
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Price to earnings multiple
Normalized earnings multiples should reflect the on-going performance of the company.
Adjust for:
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Price to earnings multiple
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Price to book multiple
The book value of equity is the total common shareholders’ equity excluding preference shares
and minority interest.
PE drivers:
• Growth prospects
• Shareholder risk
• Cash flow generation
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Free cash flow to equity
Free cash flows are used to determine how much cash a company has left after
satisfying its sustainable obligations.
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XYZ Inc. example – free cash flow to equity
Interest (100)
Taxes (50)
Cash flow pre-investment 350
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Price to free cash flow multiple
P/FCFE drivers:
• Growth prospects
• Shareholder risk
• Cash flow generation
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The firm life cycle and choosing multiples
Sales
Cash flow
Profit
Inception
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When is a multiple appropriate?
• No cash or profit
• Pattern of sales clear • Early sign growth
EV to sales
• Ignores operating economics • Rapid growth
• Ignores capital structure
• Operating cash flow positive
• Incorporates profitability • Rapid growth
EV to EBITDA
• Ignores capital structure • Slowing growth
• Ignores tax differences
• Operating profit
• Slowing growth
EV to EBIT • Ignores capital structure
• Maturity
• Ignores tax differences
• Stable operating economics
• Early maturity
Price to earnings • Stable capital structure
• Late maturity
• Profit and cash flow similar
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Summary
Free cash flows to the firm are cash flows generated by the
business and exclude financing costs such as interest
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04.
Comparable Company
Analysis
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Overview of financial valuation techniques
Valuing a business or
asset
Public company
Cost to build
comparables
Forecast future cash
flows
Replacement cost Precedent transactions
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Why comparable analysis
Pros: Cons:
01. If investors are willing to pay X for our 01. No perfect comparable
competitors… they must be willing to pay Y for
02. Hard to adjust for growth, management
us
team, or other factors
02. Observable value for a company (what
03. Easy to fall into “value trap” or “overvalued
investors are actually paying for the business
fallacy” (due to above)
right now!)
03. Readily available
04. Current
05. Large number of potential companies to
compare to
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What metrics are used?
General examples:
01. EV/Sales 04. P/E
02. EV/EBITDA 05. P/B
03. EV/EBIT 06. P/CF
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Example
Market
Price Shares Net Debt EV Sales EBITDA Earnings EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E
Cap
Company name ($/share) (M) ($M) ($M) ($M) ($M) ($M) X X X
Micro Partners $9.45 100 $945 $125 $1,070 $268 $76 $47 4.0x 14.1x 20.1x
Junior Enterprises $5.68 1,250 $7,100 $2,00 $9,100 $4,136 $778 $412 2.2x 11.7x 17.2x
Minature Company $18.11 50 $906 $25 $931 $443 $96 $56 2.1x 9.7x 16.3x
Average Limited $12.27 630 $7,730 $350 $8,080 $1,949 $528 $294 4.1x 15.3x 26.3x
Bohemeth Industries $9.03 1,500 $13,545 $0 $13,545 $6,622 $795 $423 2.0x 17.0x 32.0x
Average 2.9x 13.6x 22.4x
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How to perform comparable company analysis
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How - Selecting a comparable universe
Multiples valuation requires an in-depth understanding of the company being valued and its peers. The relative valuation is
only useful if the companies are a comparable peer group. We need to consider companies that have similar:
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05.
Precedent Transaction
Analysis
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Overview of financial valuation techniques
Valuing a business or
asset
Public company
Cost to build
comparables
Forecast future cash
flows
Replacement cost Precedent transactions
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Why M&A precedent transactions?
Pros: Cons:
01. Shows the value investors paid for the 01. Hard to find (few transactions)
entire company (not just one share) 02. Need access to a database like Bloomberg,
02. Includes takeover premium / control Capital IQ
premium 03. Become stale dated quickly (valuations
03. Includes synergy value from years ago are not relevant today)
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What metrics are used?
General examples:
01. EV/Sales 04. P/E
02. EV/EBITDA 05. P/B
03. EV/EBIT 06. P/CF
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Example
Valuation
Transaction Value
Date Target Buyers EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT
($M)
01/24/2017 Current Ltd 2,350 Average Limited 1.9x 9.4x 11.2x
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How to perform precedent M&A transaction analysis
04. 05.
• Synergies announced (if available)
• Another other terms/conditions
interesting to note
Build a table and calculate Compare the adjusted average
ratios paid at the time, where to the company you are trying to
possible value
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How - Selecting relevant transactions
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06.
Intrinsic Valuation –
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
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Overview of financial valuation techniques
Valuing a business or
asset
Public company
Cost to build
comparables
Forecast future cash
flows
Replacement cost Precedent transactions
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DCF valuation techniques
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A four-step approach
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Step 1
Gather critical
01. information about the
company
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The public information book
Question:
What is in a public information book (PIB)?
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Step 2
Undertake a
02. comprehensive
company analysis
04. 05.
A detailed and quantified An assessment of industry
assessment of a company’s dynamics within the industry as
competitive advantages / well as general economic and
disadvantages demographic trends
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Valuation starts with…
Assessing future sustainable cash flows requires an analysis of the company, industry, and external
environment.
Company
Industry
External
Environment
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Tools for analyzing the external environment
Political Social
forecasting forecasting
Identify
Anticipate opportunities and React
threats
Economic Technological
forecasting forecasting
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Tools for analyzing industry dynamics
Porter’s 5 forces is a powerful tool for assessing industry attractiveness. Michael Porter identified
FIVE forces driving industry competition:
Threat of substitutes
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Tools for assessing competitive advantage
Michael Porter identified the following strategies for gaining competitive advantage in an industry.
Broad target
1. 2.
Cost Differentiation
Competitive scope
Leadership
Narrow target
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Tools for assessing the business lifecycle
Sales
Cash
Profit
Time (years)
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Tools for assessing management
Question:
When assessing a management team’s character, which particular aspects / traits should you consider?
04. 05.
Experience/stability – Attitude towards risk –
Qualifications, business Have risks been identified?
and financial acumen, Are there mitigation
time in business, etc. strategies in place?
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Putting it all together - SWOT
Strengths Weaknesses
Internal factors which already exist and have contributed to the current position and may
continue to exist.
Opportunities Threats
External factors which are contingent events. Assess their importance based on the likelihood of
them happening and their impact on the company. Also consider whether management have
the intention and ability to take advantage of the opportunity/avoid the threat.
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Step 3
From your analysis to date, determine the key assumptions that will drive your valuation. In
particular, you must determine what will drive the following:
04.
Build your valuation
model from scratch
Company Value of the future cash flows generated by the company discounted
value at the required rate of return demanded by the investors
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Two stage DCF valuation model
1 2
Value of
Cash flows for forecastable period Terminal value
the firm
The two-stage approach to DCF valuations is a common solution to the problem of how we
forecast the cash flow of a company because of issues of uncertainty:
We do not know how long the company will Forecasting is estimation. The further we
exist and hence how many years to include in predict into the future, the more prone to
our cash flow forecast error our estimates become.
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Free cash flows to the firm
Free cash flows to the firm are the cash flows available to all funding providers (debt holders, preferred
stock holders, common stock holders, convertible holders, etc.)
EBIT
(1 – Tax Rate)
Capital Expenditure
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Forecasting free cash flows
Forecast Drivers
Revenue
• Market size
• Sales mix
• Volume/price
Operating EBIT x (1 – T)
• Materials price margin (NOPAT)
• Staffing levels
• Wage rates
Taxes
• Tax effective Free
structures cash flow
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07.
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Estimating the cost of capital
The discount rate used in DCF valuations is based on the cost of capital.
There are two main sources of capital funding – debt funding and equity funding.
What is the
Equity
cost of equity?
Assets
What is the
Debt
cost of debt?
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Calculating the WACC
Equity risk
premium
Cost of
Beta Cost of equity
equity
Weighted
average Weighted
cost of Risk free rate
average cost of
capital capital
Average yield on
debt
Cost of Cost of debt
debt (after-tax)
Tax shield
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Factors affecting cost of equity
Question:
What factors affect share prices?
Beta Alpha
01. Market risk 01. Firm-specific risk
02. Interest rates 02. Management
03. Business/economic cycle 03. Profits
04. Inflation 04. Operations
05. Political/legislation 05. Projects
06. Socio-economic 06. Products
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CAPM risk / reward model
Return %
Risk premium
between 3% and 9%
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Beta is the slope of the line of best fit
Beta can be understood as the slope (gradient) of the line of best fit.
x x
x x x
x x
x x
x Market (% change)
- x +
x x x
x
x x
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The weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
Equity Debt
WACC Ke Kd
Debt + Equity Debt + Equity
Where
Ke = Cost of equity = RFR + (Beta x MRP)
Equity = Market value of equity
Debt = Market value of debt
Kd = After tax cost of debt
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CAPM cost of equity example
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CAPM example solution
14.52%
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WACC example
Question:
What is the WACC of Brick and Mortar Co?
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WACC example solution
40 10
15.0% + 10.0% (1 – 30.0%)
40 + 10 40 + 10
12.0% + 1.4%
13.4%
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08.
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Overview of financial valuation techniques
Valuing a business or
asset
Public company
Cost to build
comparables
Forecast future cash
flows
Replacement cost Precedent transactions
corporatefinanceinstitute.com
Overview of financial valuation techniques
Valuation Summary
Valuation Summary–- Equity Value
Equity Value per per
ShareShare
($) ($)
55.00
$49.21
50.00
$44.00
45.00
40.00 $38.08
$36.00
35.00
$36.00 $30.00
30.00
25.00 $28.00
$24.81
20.00 $22.40 $22.00
15.00
10.00
Comps Precedents DCF - base case DCF - blue sky 52 wk hi/lo
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09.
Conclusion
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Recap of learning objectives
Understand the difference between Understand why comparable Understand why precedent transaction
equity and enterprise value and when company analysis is performed, the analysis is performed, the pros & cons
to use each of them pros & cons of it, and how to of it, and how to calculate the various
calculate the various ratios ratios
Understand what discounted cash flow Understand various factors impacting Understand how to effectively present
analysis is, how to calculate free cash valuation that cannot be discretely the results of valuation analysis
flow, WACC and NPV modeled
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