Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis
for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.1
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
SEMANA LLAMADAS Pronóstico Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
1 50 50 0 0 0 00.00%
2 35 50 -15 15 225 42.86%
3 25 48.5 -23.5 23.5 552.25 94.00%
4 40 46.15 -6.15 6.15 37.8225 15.38%
5 45 45.535 -0.535 0.535 0.286225 01.19%
6 35 45.4815 -10.4815 10.4815 109.861842 29.95%
7 20 44.43335 -24.43335 24.43335 596.988592 122.17%
8 30 41.990015 -11.990015 11.990015 143.76046 39.97%
9 35 40.7910135 -5.7910135 5.7910135 33.5358374 16.55%
10 20 40.2119122 -20.2119122 20.2119122 408.521393 101.06%
11 15 38.1907209 -23.1907209 23.1907209 537.809537 154.60%
12 40 35.8716488 4.12835116 4.12835116 17.0432833 10.32%
13 55 36.284484 18.715516 18.715516 350.270541 34.03%
14 35 38.1560356 -3.15603556 3.15603556 9.96056047 09.02%
15 25 37.840432 -12.840432 12.840432 164.876694 51.36%
16 55 36.5563888 18.4436112 18.4436112 340.166794 33.53%
17 55 38.4007499 16.5992501 16.5992501 275.535103 30.18%
18 40 40.0606749 -0.06067493 0.06067493 0.00368145 00.15%
19 35 40.0546074 -5.05460744 5.05460744 25.5490564 14.44%
20 60 39.5491467 20.4508533 20.4508533 418.237401 34.08%
21 75 41.594232 33.405768 33.405768 1115.94533 44.54%
22 50 44.9348088 5.06519118 5.06519118 25.6561617 10.13%
23 40 45.4413279 -5.44132794 5.44132794 29.6080498 13.60%
24 65 44.8971951 20.1028049 20.1028049 404.122763 0.30927392
Total -30.9252437 304.747935 5822.81181 934.03%
Average -1.28855182 12.6978306 242.617159 38.92%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 16.2687819
25 46.9074756
 Forecasting
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70

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50
Value

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Time

50 50
 Time

50 50
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error
analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above thethe starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.6
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 50 50 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 35 50 -15 15 225 42.86%
Period 3 25 41 -16 16 256 64.00%
Period 4 40 31.4 8.6 8.6 73.96 21.50%
Period 5 45 36.56 8.44 8.44 71.2336 18.76%
Period 6 35 41.624 -6.624 6.624 43.877376 18.93%
Period 7 20 37.6496 -17.6496 17.6496 311.50838 88.25%
Period 8 30 27.05984 2.94016 2.94016 8.64454083 09.80%
Period 9 35 28.823936 6.176064 6.176064 38.1437665 17.65%
Period 10 20 32.5295744 -12.5295744 12.5295744 156.990235 62.65%
Period 11 15 25.0118298 -10.0118298 10.0118298 100.236735 66.75%
Period 12 40 19.0047319 20.9952681 20.9952681 440.801282 52.49%
Period 13 55 31.6018928 23.3981072 23.3981072 547.471422 42.54%
Period 14 35 45.6407571 -10.6407571 10.6407571 113.225712 30.40%
Period 15 25 39.2563028 -14.2563028 14.2563028 203.242171 57.03%
Period 16 55 30.7025211 24.2974789 24.2974789 590.367479 44.18%
Period 17 55 45.2810085 9.71899155 9.71899155 94.4587967 17.67%
Period 18 40 51.1124034 -11.1124034 11.1124034 123.485509 27.78%
Period 19 35 44.4449614 -9.44496135 9.44496135 89.207295 26.99%
Period 20 60 38.7779845 21.2220155 21.2220155 450.37394 35.37%
Period 21 75 51.5111938 23.4888062 23.4888062 551.724016 31.32%
Period 22 50 65.6044775 -15.6044775 15.6044775 243.499719 31.21%
Period 23 40 56.241791 -16.241791 16.241791 263.795775 40.60%
Period 24 65 46.4967164 18.5032836 18.5032836 342.371504 0.2846659
Total 12.6644776 322.895872 5339.61925 877.17%
Average 0.52768657 13.4539947 222.484136 36.55%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 15.5791516
Next period 57.5986866
 Forecasting
80

70

60

50
Value

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
Time

50 50
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error
analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above thethe starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.1
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 50 50 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 35 50 -15 15 225 42.86%
Period 3 25 48.5 -23.5 23.5 552.25 94.00%
Period 4 40 46.15 -6.15 6.15 37.8225 15.38%
Period 5 45 45.535 -0.535 0.535 0.286225 01.19%
Period 6 35 45.4815 -10.4815 10.4815 109.861842 29.95%
Period 7 20 44.43335 -24.43335 24.43335 596.988592 122.17%
Period 8 30 41.990015 -11.990015 11.990015 143.76046 39.97%
Period 9 35 40.7910135 -5.7910135 5.7910135 33.5358374 16.55%
Period 10 20 40.2119122 -20.2119122 20.2119122 408.521393 101.06%
Period 11 15 38.1907209 -23.1907209 23.1907209 537.809537 154.60%
Period 12 40 35.8716488 4.12835116 4.12835116 17.0432833 10.32%
Period 13 55 36.284484 18.715516 18.715516 350.270541 34.03%
Period 14 35 38.1560356 -3.15603556 3.15603556 9.96056047 09.02%
Period 15 25 37.840432 -12.840432 12.840432 164.876694 51.36%
Period 16 55 36.5563888 18.4436112 18.4436112 340.166794 33.53%
Period 17 55 38.4007499 16.5992501 16.5992501 275.535103 30.18%
Period 18 40 40.0606749 -0.06067493 0.06067493 0.00368145 00.15%
Period 19 35 40.0546074 -5.05460744 5.05460744 25.5490564 14.44%
Period 20 60 39.5491467 20.4508533 20.4508533 418.237401 34.08%
Period 21 75 41.594232 33.405768 33.405768 1115.94533 44.54%
Period 22 50 44.9348088 5.06519118 5.06519118 25.6561617 10.13%
Period 23 40 45.4413279 -5.44132794 5.44132794 29.6080498 13.60%
Period 24 65 44.8971951 20.1028049 20.1028049 404.122763 30.93%
Period 25 85 46.9074756 38.0925244 38.0925244 1451.04041 0.44814735
Total 7.16728069 342.84046 7273.85222 978.85%
Average 0.28669123 13.7136184 290.954089 39.15%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 17.7835442
Next period 50.7167281
z

Forecasting
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50
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40

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10

0
1

9
11

17

21
13

15

19

23

Time

50 50
 PROMEDIO MOVIL 3 AÑOS

Num pds 3

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared
Period 1 4
Period 2 6
Period 3 4
Period 4 5 4.66666667 0.33333333 0.33333333 0.11111111
Period 5 10 5 5 5 25
Period 6 8 6.33333333 1.66666667 1.66666667 2.77777778
Period 7 7 7.66666667 -0.66666667 0.66666667 0.44444444
Period 8 9 8.33333333 0.66666667 0.66666667 0.44444444
Period 9 12 8 4 4 16
Period 10 14 9.33333333 4.66666667 4.66666667 21.7777778
Period 11 15 11.6666667 3.33333333 3.33333333 11.1111111
Total 19 20.3333333 77.6666667
Average 2.375 2.54166667 9.70833333
Bias MAD MSE
SE 3.59783886
Next period 13.6666667

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute
Period 1 4 1
Period 2 6 1
Period 3 4 2
Period 4 5 4.5 0.5 0.5
Period 5 10 5 5 5
Period 6 8 7.25 0.75 0.75
Period 7 7 7.75 -0.75 0.75
Period 8 9 8 1 1
Period 9 12 8.25 3.75 3.75
Period 10 14 10 4 4
Period 11 15 12.25 2.75 2.75
Total 17 18.5
Average 2.125 2.3125
Bias MAD
SE
Next period 14
 RECTA DE TENDENCIA
Abs Pct Err
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast
Period 1 4 1 3.27272727
06.67% Period 2 6 2 4.32727273
50.00% Period 3 4 3 5.38181818
20.83% Period 4 5 4 6.43636364
09.52% Period 5 10 5 7.49090909
07.41% Period 6 8 6 8.54545455
33.33% Period 7 7 7 9.6
33.33% Period 8 9 8 10.6545455
22.22% Period 9 12 9 11.7090909
183.32% Period 10 14 10 12.7636364
22.92% Period 11 15 11 13.8181818
MAPE Total
Intercept 2.21818182 Average
Slope 1.05454545

Forecast 0 12

Coefficient of determi

Squared Abs Pct Err

0.25 10.00%
25 50.00%
0.5625 09.38%
0.5625 10.71%
1 11.11% RPTA: USARIA LA RECTA DE TENDENCIA PORQUE NOS M
14.0625 31.25%
16 28.57%
7.5625 18.33%
65 169.36%
8.125 21.17%
MSE MAPE
3.29140294
orecasts and Error Analysis
Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
0.72727273 0.72727273 0.52892562 18.18%
1.67272727 1.67272727 2.79801653 27.88%
-1.38181818 1.38181818 1.90942149 34.55%
-1.43636364 1.43636364 2.0631405 28.73%
2.50909091 2.50909091 6.29553719 25.09%
-0.54545455 0.54545455 0.29752066 06.82%
-2.6 2.6 6.76 37.14%
-1.65454545 1.65454545 2.73752066 18.38%
0.29090909 0.29090909 0.0846281 02.42%
1.23636364 1.23636364 1.52859504 08.83%
1.18181818 1.18181818 1.39669421 07.88%
0 15.2363636 26.4 215.90%
0 1.38512397 2.4 19.63%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 1.71269768

Correlation 0.90691449
Coefficient of determination 0.82249389

A DE TENDENCIA PORQUE NOS MUESTRA UNA MENOR DESVIACIÓN ABSOLUTA (MAD)