WALMART INC.
NYSE-WMT RECENT
PRICE 116.18 P/ERATIO 22.8(Trailing:
Median: 15.0) P/E RATIO 1.23 YLD 1.9%
23.4 RELATIVE DIV’D VALUE
LINE
TIMELINESS 1 Raised 12/27/19 High:
Low:
63.8
43.1
57.5
46.3
56.3
47.8
60.0
48.3
77.6
57.2
81.4
67.7
88.1
72.3
91.0
56.3
75.2
60.2
100.1
65.3
110.0
81.8
125.4
91.6
Target Price Range
2022 2023 2024
SAFETY 1 Raised 2/15/02 LEGENDS
12.0 x ″Cash Flow″ p sh
TECHNICAL 2 Raised 1/3/20 . . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
200
160
BETA .75 (1.00 = Market) Shaded area indicates recession
18-Month Target Price Range 100
Low-High Midpoint (% to Mid) 80
$89-$134 $112 (-5%) 60
50
2022-24 PROJECTIONS 40
Ann’l Total 30
Price Gain Return
High 170 (+45%) 12% 20
Low 140 (+20%) 7%
% TOT. RETURN 12/19
Institutional Decisions THIS VL ARITH.*
1Q2019 2Q2019 3Q2019 STOCK INDEX
Percent 12 1 yr. 30.2 23.6
to Buy 887 878 894 shares 8
to Sell 870 835 832 3 yr. 84.2 26.5
traded 4
Hld’s(000) 854942 868976 874047 5 yr. 56.8 42.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 © VALUE LINE PUB. LLC 22-24
60.00 68.02 75.79 84.40 95.34 103.34 107.82 119.98 130.76 141.57 147.32 150.45 152.48 159.41 169.49 178.74 186.90 197.75 Sales per sh A 217.50
2.95 3.47 3.78 4.27 4.83 5.16 5.64 6.42 6.92 7.69 7.92 7.93 7.64 7.72 8.07 8.73 8.95 9.35 ‘‘Cash Flow’’per sh 11.30
2.03 2.41 2.63 2.92 3.16 3.42 3.66 4.07 4.45 5.02 5.11 5.07 4.57 4.32 4.42 4.91 5.00 5.20 Earnings per sh A B 7.10
.36 .52 .60 .67 .88 .95 1.09 1.21 1.46 1.59 1.88 1.92 1.96 2.00 2.04 2.09 2.12 2.16 Div’ds Decl’d per sh ■C 2.80
10.12 11.67 12.77 14.91 16.26 16.63 18.69 19.49 20.86 23.04 23.59 25.22 25.47 25.52 26.38 25.19 26.70 27.80 Book Value per sh 32.00
4311.0 4234.0 4165.0 4131.0 3973.0 3925.0 3786.0 3516.0 3418.0 3314.0 3233.0 3228.0 3162.0 3048.0 2952.0 2878.0 2830.0 2765.0 Common Shs Outst’g D 2600.0
26.9 22.8 18.3 16.0 14.9 16.2 13.9 13.1 12.4 13.5 14.9 15.4 15.5 16.2 18.6 18.7 Bold figures are Avg Ann’l P/E Ratio 22.0
1.53 1.20 .97 .86 .79 .97 .93 .83 .78 .86 .84 .81 .78 .85 .94 1.01 Value Line Relative P/E Ratio 1.20
estimates
.7% .9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% Avg Ann’l Div’d Yield 1.8%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 10/31/19 408214 421849 446950 469162 476294 485651 482130 485873 500343 514405 528925 546820 Sales ($mill) A 565500
Total Debt $58467 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $21569 mill. 25.4% 25.3% 25.0% 24.9% 24.8% 24.8% 25.1% 25.6% 25.4% 25.1% 24.5% 24.5% Gross Margin 25.0%
LT Debt $48980 mill. LT Interest $2400 mill. 7.6% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% Operating Margin 6.5%
Incl. $4068 mill. property under capital lease.
(Total interest coverage: 9.6x) (41% of Cap’l) 8416 8970 10130 10773 10942 11453 11528 11695 11718 11361 11490 11655 Number of Stores 12000
14204 14921 15523 16999 16728 16426 14694 13452 13283 14460 14340 14750 Net Profit ($mill) 18450
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $2270 mill. 34.1% 34.0% 33.4% 31.0% 32.2% 31.9% 30.3% 30.6% 31.4% 24.5% 25.0% 25.0% Income Tax Rate 25.0%
3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% Net Profit Margin 3.3%
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan d7230 d6591 d7325 d11878 d8160 d1994 d4380 d9239 d18857 d15580 d18880 d16580 Working Cap’l ($mill) d9200
Pfd Stock None
36401 43842 47079 41417 44559 43692 44030 42018 36825 50203 48000 45000 Long-Term Debt ($mill) 40000
Common Stock 2,837,174,936 shs. 70749 68542 71315 76343 76255 81394 80546 77798 77869 72496 75600 76900 Shr. Equity ($mill) 83200
as of 12/2/19 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 15.3% 14.7% 14.0% 12.6% 12.1% 12.1% 12.7% 11.5% 12.0% Return on Total Cap’l 15.0%
20.1% 21.8% 21.8% 22.3% 21.9% 20.2% 18.2% 17.3% 17.1% 19.9% 19.0% 19.0% Return on Shr. Equity 22.0%
MARKET CAP: $330 billion (Large Cap) 14.1% 15.3% 14.7% 15.2% 13.9% 12.6% 10.4% 9.3% 9.2% 11.5% 11.0% 11.0% Retained to Com Eq 13.5%
CURRENT POSITION 2017 2018 10/31/19 30% 30% 33% 32% 37% 38% 43% 46% 46% 42% 42% 42% All Div’ds to Net Prof 39%
($MILL.)
Cash Assets 6756 7722 8606 BUSINESS: Walmart Inc. owns the world’s largest retail chain, op- most stores are within 400 miles of a distribution center. Groceries
Receivables 5614 6283 5612 erating 3,570 supercenters (includes grocery departments), 386 accounted for 56% of U.S. sales; sales per square foot in 2018:
Inventory (LIFO) 43783 44269 51546
Other 3511 3623 2148 discount stores, 599 Sam’s Clubs, and 813 Neighborhood Markets about $455. Has 2,200,000 employees. Off./dir. own 50.2% of
Current Assets 59664 61897 67912 in the U.S., plus 5,993 foreign stores, many in Latin America, with shares (4/19 proxy). Chairman: Gregory B. Penner. CEO and Pres.:
Accts Payable 46092 47060 49750 the rest in Asia, Canada, and the U.K. as of 1/31/19. Total store Doug McMillon. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 702 S.W. 8th St., Bentonville, AR
Debt Due 9662 2605 9487 space: 1.129 billion square feet. Retail space is largely owned, and 72716. Tel.: 479-273-4000. Internet: www.walmart.com.
Other 22767 27812 24547
Current Liab. 78521 77477 83784 Walmart recorded another solid per- using the service once they start. Even
formance in the fiscal third quarter. though associates must wear body
ANNUAL RATES Past Past Est’d ’16-’18
of change (per sh) 10 Yrs. 5 Yrs. to ’22-’24 The company’s net sales rose 3.3% year cameras, some customers have bought a
Sales 6.0% 4.0% 4.5% over year, and adjusted earnings advanced refrigerator for their garage so Walmart
‘‘Cash Flow’’ 5.5% 1.5% 5.5% 7.4%. Walmart U.S. recorded same-store associates are not in their house.
Earnings 3.5% -1.5% 7.5% sales growth of 3.2%, with traffic up 1.3% Eventually, the company thinks delivery
Dividends 9.5% 4.5% 4.0%
Book Value 5.0% 2.5% 3.5% and the average transaction amount grow- will end up to be bigger than pickup.
Fiscal Full ing 1.9%. Fresh food sales were strong, as The produce department is getting an
QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) A
Year
Begins Apr.30 Jul.31 Oct.31 Jan.31
Fiscal
Year
improvements in bakery and meats helped overhaul. Dubbed Produce 2.0, Walmart
drive a mid-single-digit comp gain. Health is separating organic items, creating an
2016 115904 120854 118179 130936 485873 and wellness comp sales increased around ‘‘open air market feel,’’ freeing up more
2017 117542 123355 123179 136267 500343
2018 122690 128028 124894 138793 514405 the same amount thanks to branded drug space for shopping, and updating signage
2019 123925 130377 127991 146632 528925 inflation and higher prescription volume. and fixtures. The changes also make it
2020 129180 134800 132875 149965 546820 The e-commerce business grew an im- easier for associates to stock produce. The
Fiscal EARNINGS PER SHARE A B Full pressive 41%, the best result in the first plan is to update the majority of stores by
Year Fiscal nine months of the fiscal year. this summer.
Begins Apr.30 Jul.31 Oct.31 Jan.31 Year
Grocery pickup has proven to be Walmart is trying to be a healthcare
2016 .98 1.07 .98 1.30 4.32
2017 1.00 1.08 1.00 1.33 4.42 quite popular. The company was wise to destination. The first Walmart Health
2018 1.14 1.29 1.08 1.41 4.91 assume that people in the U.S. would em- center opened last fall. Its services include
2019 1.13 1.27 1.16 1.44 5.00 brace drive-through grocery delivery. To primary and urgent care, lab tests, X-rays,
2020 1.16 1.33 1.18 1.53 5.20 be sure, if given the option to not leave diagnostics, counseling, dental, optical,
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID ■ C their cars, many Americans will take it, and hearing. Several services are offered
Cal- Full
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year particularly those with young children. at very low prices regardless of insurance
2016 .50 .50 .50 .50 2.00
The initial phase of grocery delivery status. The company hopes these locations
2017 .51 .51 .51 .51 2.04 also seems to be going well. The service will drive traffic and improve satisfaction.
2018 .52 .52 .52 .52 2.08 is now live in Kansas City; Pittsburgh; These timely shares remain a solid
2019 .53 .53 .53 .53 2.12 and Vero Beach, Florida. Management choice for conservative investors.
2020 claims it hasn’t had many customers stop Kevin Downing January 24, 2020
(A) Fiscal year ends Jan. 31st of following (losses)/gains: ’05, $0.03; ’08, ($0.07); ’09, May, Aug., and Dec.■ Dividend reinvestment Company’s Financial Strength A++
calendar year. Sales exclude rentals from li- $0.04; ’10, $0.40; ’11, $0.03; ’13, ($0.23); ’15 plan available. Stock’s Price Stability 95
censed depts. (B) Based on diluted shares. ($0.08). Next earnings report due February (D) In millions. Price Growth Persistence 40
May not sum due to rounding. Excls. n/r 18th. (C) Divds. historically paid in early Mar., Earnings Predictability 95
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