10 Key Trends

in Food,
Nutrition
& Health 2019
by Julian Mellentin

Published by

November/December 2018
Volume 24 Number 2/3
ISSN 978-1-906297-65-7
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Contents
The 10 Key Trends in Food, Nutrition & Health 2019
Introduction............................................................................................................................................................. 1
Key Trend 1: Digestive Wellness – where opportunities flourish........................................................................ 7
Key Trend 2: Plant-based – easy greens fuel growth.........................................................................................21
Key Trend 3: Protein – powered by a natural health halo................................................................................ 33
Key Trend 4: Sugar – reinventing sweetness...................................................................................................... 49
Key Trend 5: Good carbs, bad carbs – nudging carbs in new directions......................................................... 60
Key Trend 6: Fragmentation & personalisation – a galaxy of niches? ............................................................ 72
Key Trend 7: Snackification – harnessing the power of extreme convenience................................................ 82
Key Trend 8: Beverages Redefined – a flow of fresh ideas............................................................................... 92
Key Trend 9: Fat Reborn – promise of a brighter future.................................................................................. 105
Key Trend 10: Authenticity & Provenance – mass market embraces the back-story..................................... 118

Charts
Chart 1: Brands in this report on the nutrition product life-cycle........................................................................................... 6
Chart 2: Consumers rank ‘good’ foods for digestive health.................................................................................................. 9
Chart 3: Digestive issues that motivate people......................................................................................................................10
Chart 4: Consumers rank ‘bad’ foods for digestive health...................................................................................................10
Chart 5: Consumer perceptions around probiotics................................................................................................................11
Chart 6: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 1, Digestive Wellness...............................................................................................20
Chart 7: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 1, Digestive Wellness............................................................................................20
Chart 8: Pricing comparison for beetroot products in the US ($US)...................................................................................24
Chart 9: Percentage of consumers claiming to be reducing meat consumption.................................................................30
Chart 10: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 2, Plant-based........................................................................................................32
Chart 11: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 2, Plant-based.....................................................................................................32
Chart 12: Seafood snacks launched in Asia 2013-YTD 2018............................................................................................. 41
Chart 13: Meat, eggs and dairy are American consumers’ primary sources of protein...................................................44
Chart 14: Price comparison, NIJE Propud (SEK)...................................................................................................................47
Chart 15: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 3, Protein.................................................................................................................48
Chart 16: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 3, Protein.............................................................................................................48
Chart 17: Changes in soft drink consumption in France.......................................................................................................52
Chart 18: Most common health concerns on social media around sugar consumption....................................................55
Chart 19: Most mentioned sugar replacements on Instagram, September 2018..............................................................58
Chart 20: Global food & drink product launches with honey as an ingredient.................................................................58
Chart 21: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 4, Sugar...................................................................................................................59
Chart 22: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 4, Sugar..............................................................................................................59
Chart 23: Percentage of consumers who claim to be trying to eat low-carb.....................................................................65
Chart 24: Do you agree that eating too many refined carbs increases your risk of diabetes?.........................................65

l
Chart 25: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 5, Good carbs, Bad carbs.................................................................................... 71
Chart 26: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 5, Good carbs, Bad carbs................................................................................. 71
Chart 27: Percentage of respondents who say they have taken a gut microbiome test for personal dietary advice...... 76
Chart 28: Percentage of respondents who say they have taken a DNA test for personal dietary advice....................... 76
Chart 29: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 6, Fragmentation & personalisation..................................................................... 81
Chart 30: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 6, Fragmentation & personalisation................................................................. 81
Chart 31: Compared to other dairy-based snack pots, Keso snack pots are premium priced.........................................86
Chart 32: Same product, less of it – but at a higher price...................................................................................................88
Chart 33: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 7, Snackification..................................................................................................... 91
Chart 34: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 7, Snackification................................................................................................. 91
Chart 35: Beverage launches with rosemary as an ingredient worldwide.........................................................................97
Chart 36: Beverage launches with rosemary by category, 2017–2018 (%).....................................................................97
Chart 37: Are you trying to reduce your alcohol intake?.....................................................................................................98
Chart 38: Why are you trying to reduce alcohol? ...............................................................................................................98
Chart 39: Alcohol free beverage launches in Japan and China, 2010 to 2017................................................................99
Chart 40: Kombucha drinks launched in the US................................................................................................................ 102
Chart 41: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 8, Beverages redefined........................................................................................104
Chart 42: Product Life-cycle, Key Trend 8, Beverages redefined......................................................................................104
Chart 43: Percentages of consumers trying to eat more healthy fats................................................................................ 110
Chart 44: Consumers are slowly becoming more positive about fat, 2017 vs 2018....................................................... 110
Chart 45: Consumers increasingly rate full-fat yoghurt as healthy, 2017 vs 2018.......................................................... 110
Chart 46: Coconut oil gets full marks for health.................................................................................................................. 111
Chart 47: Cholesterol-lowering spreads in trouble..............................................................................................................116
Chart 48: Spreads suffer as butter prospers.........................................................................................................................116
Chart 49: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 9, Fat reborn..........................................................................................................117
Chart 50: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 9, Fat reborn......................................................................................................117
Chart 51: Price comparison for regular vs artisanal beers (US).........................................................................................121
Chart 52: Price comparison of regular and artisanal breads in the UK (£)...................................................................... 122
Chart 53: Price per 1L of milk in China ($).......................................................................................................................... 123
Chart 54: Trend Diamond – Key Trend 10, Authenticity & Provenance............................................................................ 126
Chart 55: Product Life-cycle – Key Trend 10, Authenticity & Provenance........................................................................ 126

Table
Table 1: Per capita consumption of meat, retail US (kg)......................................................................................................40

ll
Boxes
Box 1: How do we choose the Key Trends?............................................................................................................................ 3
Box 2: Naturally Functional – The King of Trends................................................................................................................... 4
Box 3: We’re all food explorers now....................................................................................................................................... 5
Box 4: Weight wellness & appearance at the root of everything.......................................................................................... 5
Box 5: Kimchi’s widening appeal........................................................................................................................................... 12
Box 6: Kefir for dairy-avoiders............................................................................................................................................... 13
Box 7: Super-premium non-dairy yoghurt a cult hit.............................................................................................................. 13
Box 8: What is FODMAPs?..................................................................................................................................................... 14
Box 9: FODMAP-friendly ready meals launch in UK........................................................................................................... 15
Box 10: Gluten-free no longer a point of difference............................................................................................................ 15
Box 11: Are we at peak plant milk?........................................................................................................................................ 19
Box 12: Making vegetables ultra-convenient........................................................................................................................24
Box 13: Reinventing the beetroot............................................................................................................................................24
Box 14: Tommies premium snack vegetables........................................................................................................................25
Box 15: Fragmented consumer motivations...........................................................................................................................26
Box 16: Richer, older = buys more vegetables......................................................................................................................26
Box 17: Moving vegetables to centre-of-plate in place of starchy carbs...........................................................................27
Box 18: Vegetables made easy..............................................................................................................................................28
Box 19: Seaweed hidden in plain sight.................................................................................................................................29
Box 20: Magnum goes vegan................................................................................................................................................ 31
Box 21: Millennials and plant-based foods.......................................................................................................................... 31
Box 22: Kraft’s P3 protein show how to succeed with protein that’s both natural & convenient.......................................35
Box 23: Pots of convenient protein.........................................................................................................................................36
Box 24: Multiple motivations around protein........................................................................................................................37
Box 25: Making more of egg protein....................................................................................................................................37
Box 26: Nutrition snapshot, Halo Top strawberry................................................................................................................38
Box 27: The perfect protein drink?..........................................................................................................................................39
Box 28: Millennials and protein.............................................................................................................................................39
Box 29: Seafood snacks launched 2013-2018.................................................................................................................... 41
Box 30: Oomi offers innovative fish-based noodles, and highlights sustainability............................................................42
Box 31: Fish protein has potential to beat plant-based on “less processed”, waste production and environmental
credentials................................................................................................................................................................................42
Box 32: Meat substitutes fail the test of naturalness and “least-processed”.......................................................................43
Box 33: Two totally different sugar strategies – both hugely successful ............................................................................ 51
Box 34: Sugar taxes round the world....................................................................................................................................53
Box 35: Silicon Valley wants you to feel the benefits...........................................................................................................54
Box 36: Sugar labelling is confusing ....................................................................................................................................54
Box 37: Millennials and sugar................................................................................................................................................55
Box 38: New wave of sugar science?...................................................................................................................................56

llI
Box 39: Low-carb diabetes programme goes mainstream..................................................................................................63
Box 40: Disruptive technology fuelling growth of low-carb................................................................................................63
Box 41: NPD takes the bother out of beetroot......................................................................................................................66
Box 42: What are the hardest carbs to cut?..........................................................................................................................68
Box 43: Millennials and carbs...............................................................................................................................................69
Box 44: Japan goes “Lo-Ca-Bo”...........................................................................................................................................70
Box 45: Bloggers – a powerful influence on consumers’ personalised dietary decisions................................................ 76
Box 46: Nestlé app personalises diet....................................................................................................................................78
Box 47: My Muesli personalising cereal...............................................................................................................................79
Box 48: Habit shows delivering personalised food is tougher than tech............................................................................80
Box 49: Millennials want easy answers................................................................................................................................84
Box 50: Arla’s Keso cheese snack pots.................................................................................................................................86
Box 51: Graze launched in e-commerce and later moved to retail....................................................................................87
Box 52: Snack sizes give permission to indulge...................................................................................................................88
Box 53: Natural trumps heavy nutrition.................................................................................................................................89
Box 54: Snackification and convenience strategy................................................................................................................90
Box 55: Greek yoghurt game-changer with snacking.........................................................................................................90
Box 56: Big niche the path to success for savvy brands?.....................................................................................................94
Box 57: Alkaline88 – more than a fad?................................................................................................................................96
Box 58: Drinkfinity – big beverage shows it too can innovate............................................................................................96
Box 59: Changes in lifestyle are driving the alcohol-free market in Asia, with Japan leading the way..........................99
Box 60: The coffee innovation that claims to be fastest growing...................................................................................... 100
Box 61: Swedish coffee roaster targets “next gen coffee lovers”......................................................................................101
Box 62: Nestlé mainstreams “cool” coffee..........................................................................................................................101
Box 63: Whole is better........................................................................................................................................................107
Box 64: How fat got its bad reputation.............................................................................................................................. 108
Box 65: Fat motivations........................................................................................................................................................ 109
Box 66: Fat bombs a hit on social media............................................................................................................................. 111
Box 67: Nutrition snapshot, Suzie’s Good Fats bars...........................................................................................................112
Box 68: Yet more rethinking of fat to come?.........................................................................................................................112
Box 69: 4th & Heart reviews fat for a modern audience....................................................................................................113
Box 70: Consumers rate healthy fats as a key weapon against inflammation..................................................................114
Box 71: Millennials and fats..................................................................................................................................................115
Box 72: Fat – the health halo passed from polyunsaturated spreads to butter.................................................................116
Box 73: NZ brands succeed in China with provenance and e-commerce...................................................................... 123
Box 74: Provenance key to Epic snacks............................................................................................................................... 125
Box 75: Big city consumers seek connection with the source of their food....................................................................... 125

IV
Companies and brands in this Report
4th and Heart Chocti Cloetta GT Living Foods
A2 Milk Coca Cola Haagen Dazs
A2 Platinum Coconut Cult Habit
ABI Comvita Halo Top
ActiPH Costa Coffee Health Ade Kombucha
Albert Heijn CSIRO Heineken
Albert Smoothies Daiya Foods Heltärligt
Alibaba Hema Fresh Danone Hidden Garden Foods
Alkaline88 Danone Actimel Holland & Barrett
Alpine Breads Danone Activia Honest Tea
Alpro Danone Manifesto Ventures Hovis
Anchor Day Two Iconic Protein
Ancient Nutrition Deliciously Ella Impossible Burger
Annie’s Homegrown Diageo Innocent
Aoraki Water Dr Oetker International Agriculture Group
Apple Eggurt International Food Information Council
Arla Eisberg Itsu
Arla Foods Elysian JD.com
Arla Keso Emmi Caffe Latte Just Crack an Egg
Arla Lactofree Emmi Dairy Justin’s
Asda Walmart Epic Kagome
Avrio Capital Epic Burger Kelda
Babybel Europastry Kellogg
Baker’s Delight Fage Kerrygold
Bantam Bagels Fairlife KeVita
Barebells Farm & Oven Kibun
BarleyMax Farmer’s Fridge Kimchi Cult
Beavertown Brewery Fatworks Kirin
Becel Fazer Kite Hill
Bellwether Farms Fever Tree Know Brainer
Belvita Findus Pease Kona Deep
Ben & Jerry’s FitBit Kraft Heinz
Benecol Five Acre Farms Kroger
Beneo Flora La Colombe
Bevmark International Fodilicious La Croix
Beyond Meat Fody Foods Leon
Bird’s Eye Fonterra Löfbergs
Booths For Goodness Shakes Lotato
Bounty Bar Forbidden Food Love Beets
BrewDog Founder’s Lovingly Artisan
Breyers Freedom Foods Lucozade Energy
Brooklyn Brewery Fuel 10K Lurpak
Bubba Burger Fusion Marketing Magnum Vegan
Bubly G’s Fresh Mamey Senza Glutine
Cadbury Gelita Mars
Cadbury Boost+ Protein General Mills Mash Direct
Cadbury Dairy Milk Glanbia Carb Out Milky Bar Wowsomes
Cali’flour Glutino Milky Way
Califia Farms Go Raw Mojo
Campbell’s Go Soup! Molson Coors Brewing
CBD Living Water Goodness Superfoods Monash University
Cece’s Veggie Noodle Co Graze Mondelez
Chobani Green Giant Morrisons
Chobani Flip Green Valley Dairies Mountjoy
Clearly Kombucha Groenten Fruit Huis Mrs Thinsters

V
Mueller PrepCo Suzie’s Good Fats
My Muesli Pret a Manger T& G Global
Nakd Pro-Activ Tåpped
Naked Prokey Drinks Tesco
Nature Nate’s Protein House The Co-op
Nescafe Azera Nitro Publix The Healthy Grain
Nestlé Purely Elizabeth Theland
Nisshin Purely Pinole Tmall
Njie ProPud Quaker Tommies
No 1 Rosemary Water Ralph’s Uncle Ben’s
Noosa Yoghurt Raw Unilever
NutriPot Rejoov Cold Pressery Unisoy
NZMP Rind VaiVai
Ocado Rizap Vinamilk
Oh Yes Foods Sainsbury’s Virta Health
One For Neptune San Miguel VitaCoco
Oomi Sano Vital Farms
Oreo Schär Vitamin Manager
Oreo Thins Seamore Vogels
Orkla Seedlip Waitrose
Ornua Siggi’s Warburton’s
Oscar Mayer P3 Silk Wegman’s
Otsuka Pharmaceutical SkinnyPop Wellness Ambassador By Nestlé
PaniShop Snelle Jelle White Wave
Pearl 2-0 Snickers Whole Foods Markets
Peckish So Good Wicked Kitchen
Peekaboo SodaStream Wicked Weed
PepsiCo Solinest Yakult Honsha
PepsiCo Drinkfinity Special K Yoplait Oui
Pip & Nut Sprouts Farmers’ Markets Yorkie Bar
Pizza Hut Starbucks Yuhan Corporation
Plenish Sunrice Yumbutter
Pom Wonderful Suntory
Post Cereals Supa Noma

Regions in this Report

Australia/New Zealand
Asia
Europe
North America

VI
8
 10 Key Trends 2019 Introduction

10 Key Trends in Food, Nutrition & Health 2019

1 2 3

4 5 6

7 8 9

10

© New Nutrition Business 2018 1 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Introduction

10 Key Trends in Food, Nutrition & Health 2019

If you want to understand how the most has a connection with weight adoption of gluten-free by consumers,
important shifts in health and nutrition management, and the protein including:
beliefs are changing the food and helps make it even more of a • Only a tiny percentage of
beverage market, what opportunities are ‘good carb’. consumers are diagnosed coeliacs
emerging and how to connect to them, • Digestive Wellness (Key Trend 1) – so the ‘real’ market must be tiny
this report is the most useful document for some people, eating gluten-free • People who are not coeliac don’t
you will read all year. relieves digestive problems and need gluten free foods
For over 20 years we have worked on allows them to keep grains in their • Gluten-free is a fad which will fade
identifying the trends that will change diet (and so helps quinoa to be ‘once people realise these products
the fortunes of markets and brands. more of a ‘good carb’). aren’t doing them any good’
We produce the 10 Key Trends as an • Celebrities following gluten-free
antidote to the hundreds of lightweight Some people are motivated by one of are to blame, people are just
trend lists that companies are bombarded these factors, others by all of them. blindly following them
with. The case of quinoa shows that trends • Gluten-free eating is too difficult
Typically these lists show trends do not exist in isolation. Most overlap and people won’t stick with it
changing every year, with new subjects with one another, and increasingly
appearing one year and disappearing often the most successful brands and Consumers were immune to all of
the next. This is not the case with New ingredients are those that deliver against these arguments. They were looking to
Nutrition Business 10 Key Trends. multiple trends. For example: relieve digestive discomfort; their internet
We aim to help you navigate the • Halo Top is less sugar research suggested that gluten was a
choppy waters of strategy and new (Key Trend 4) but also possible cause. When they found gluten-
product development by showing you: more protein (Key Trend free products worked for them, they
• how the trends are developing, 3) continued to buy them – all or part of
and how they will develop in the • Fairlife Milk is less sugar the time. In short, consumers’ access to
future (Key Trend 4) , but also information and the very powerful need
• what strategies companies are lactose-free (Key Trend for digestive wellness and feeling good
following to connect to the trends 3) and more protein (Key drove growth.
(to help you figure out your own Trend 3) And because of these trend
options) • P3 protein packs are connections, gluten-free is today an
• what’s emerging that’s going to be snacking (Key Trend 7) everyday message in the supermarket.
important and protein (Key Trend 3) Another good example is the rise of
• what’s going to stick around for butter and the fall of margarines and
the long-term TRENDS POWER THE WACKIEST other polyunsaturated spreads. Since the
• where best to place your bets IDEAS – AND CAN BREAK EVEN 1960s, butter has been condemned by
ESTABLISHED BRANDS health experts as unhealthy – particularly
WHAT EXACTLY IS A TREND? for the heart – because of its saturated fat
A big lesson of food and beverage content. Meanwhile spreads sang their
If you read a report that says that, since the 1990s is that what’s wacky and credentials as a source of health-giving
for example, ‘quinoa is on the up’ stop unexpected has a habit of becoming polyunsaturates. Spreads sales rose, butter
and reflect. Rising sales of quinoa is not normal, successful and even everyday. declined. Unilever built a global business
a trend, it is a manifestation of several When that happens, you almost always on spreads which was at one time a pillar
trends. For example: find that it’s connected to key trends. of their profitability.
• Good Carbs, Bad Carbs Take the example of gluten-free foods. Today the tables are turned – but not
(Key Trend 5) – people are Back in 2001 they were still seen as niche, as a result of any company’s strategy.
experimenting with grains that are ‘a bit weird’, and most people in industry In fact it has happened despite the
new, interesting and different from weren’t sure whether there was much marketing and product development
traditional wheat. potential for growth. muscle of giants like Unilever, which has
• Protein (Key Trend 3) – for Some companies and dietitians made lost the battle against a big trend shift.
some, quinoa’s protein content very rational arguments against wider The science about saturated fat is

© New Nutrition Business 2018 2 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Introduction

shifting (see Key Trend 9). People want grown to the point where they are mega- it’s all about (Box 4) – many
foods that are more naturally healthy, trends that are basic to any strategy brands are driven to an extent by
they have access to information at their formulation, no matter what category consumers’ efforts to keep a good
fingertips and they have learnt not to you are in or what trends you choose to shape and weight.
trust experts (Key Trend 6). work with:
In the 21st century brands are no 1. Naturally functional (see Box THE ROLE OF NPD IN ENABLING
longer in control – they are all like 2). You can’t select ingredients TRENDS TO COME TO LIFE
corks tossed on the ocean of powerful or product types without paying
consumer trends that they seem to have attention to this. What can your company do with these
little power to influence. 2. Thanks to technology, the trends? In almost every trend in this
If the trends are against you, it’s better consumer is in charge. report we set out the range of strategies
to acknowledge the new reality and work Changing information about that companies are following to create
with it than to wish it weren’t so, or to health and nutrition influences opportunities or respond to threats and
tell yourself that the consumer will come some consumers’ beliefs and which anyone can select from and adapt.
back round to your way of thinking. choices (and confuses others). Key to success is using your NPD
Against the powerful forces of the free People can instantly access this skills to deliver consumer benefits that
market, resistance is useless. wealth of information via their align with the key trends. No matter how
mobile device and become their clever your company is at marketing,
THE FOUR MEGA-TRENDS own nutrition expert. those skills will count for nothing unless
3. We’re all food explorers now you hitch your products to the key trend
In addition to the 10 Key Trends there (see Box 3) – consumers love locomotive – and use technical know-
are four other big factors you need to new and exciting offerings. how to deliver products with excellent
take into account. These were all trends 4. Looking good, feeling good, taste and texture.
by themselves in the past, but they have and weight wellness are what

DIGESTIVE
WELLNESS
BOX 1: HOW DO WE CHOOSE THE KEY TRENDS?

When we decide on our 10 key trends, Consumer Pull

we focus on answering the most important 5

questions that all companies face: 4

1. Will this trend endure? Will it have a Competitive Landscape Sales Trends
3
strong (or small but growing) influence
on our industry for at least five years – 2
because no-one can afford to connect
their NPD efforts to a fad that might be 1

gone two years from now.

0
2. Will it produce opportunities for
profitable growth? Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

To answer these questions with confidence,

we:
• Monitor a wide variety of qualitative and
quantitative information, all year long.
We take a broad perspective because Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

trends are driven not just by what people

tell consumer researchers, but also by the
ambitions and competitive activities of companies, improvements in food technology and ingredients which can make new product
types possible, advances in nutrition science and many other parameters.
• Analyse this information using a scoring system that we first developed back in 2006 and have been refining and improving ever
since (see above for an example of our trend diamond).
There are of course many trends beyond the top-10, but the 10 we have selected are those that score highest in terms of durability and
opportunity.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 3 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Introduction

Every year we aim to entertain and as an opportunity.” Whether you are We wish you every
inform our customers with the New an entrepreneur or a creatively-minded
Nutrition Business annual analysis of the person in a large corporate you will find
success!
Key Trends. It’s what we have become plenty of changes that can be made into
best-known for and with good reason. opportunities within this report.
If you want to know what trends will
be creating opportunities and challenges If you’d like to discuss any of
for your business in the years ahead, the trends in more depth or have
you will find them here, as well as some us present to your colleagues the
practical advice about how companies detail that we cannot show in a
are successfully responding to these publication like this – to help you
trends and what you can take from these reduce your risk and create a more
for your own business. robust business plan – then get in
Peter Drucker, the eminent business touch with me by sending an email
thinker, author and academic, said: to julian.mellentin@new-nutrition.
“The entrepreneur always searches for com, and I can present in person
change, responds to it, and exploits it or by Skype or video.

BOX 2: NATURALLY FUNCTIONAL – THE KING OF TRENDS

In planning your strategy there are some key factors to take into account alongside the Key Trends. The most important of these is
“Naturally Functional”. This is the King of Trends, such a basic element of strategy that we no longer include it in the top-10. It reflects that
what consumers want more than anything else is foods, beverages and ingredients that they perceive as naturally healthy and bring some
intrinsic benefit. It’s a driver of the success of almonds, almond milk, blueberries and tens of other foodstuffs.

NATURALLY FUNCTIONAL
THE STRONGEST FOUNDATION FOR SUCCESS

Natural
source of
"good fats"

A 
Probiotics
naturally POWERFUL
present
DRIVER
Anti- for ingredients
inflammatory
hero
and brands Naturally
high in
protein

Naturally functional overlaps with – and strongly influences – most other trends.
Naturally functional is behind the success of almonds, Greek yoghurt, coconut water, pistachios, olive oil,
blueberries and many others.

No need for health claims – the media and consumers love stories about ingredients that are naturally healthy.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 4 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Introduction

BOX 3: WE’RE ALL FOOD EXPLORERS NOW

Our modern food supply is able to get products to our stores in a For example, despite its best efforts, Danone has failed to revive the
variety not seen since the days of the Roman Empire. Nothing is too struggling sales of its Activia brand – both in the US and Europe.
rare or too exotic that retailers cannot find a way to supply it.
Activia’s digestive health benefit is on-trend and it is what has made
This has enabled chefs to be more creative and made more the brand one of the biggest in the world. But Activia is just one
consumers demand these new flavours in restaurants, in ready meals digestive health brand in an ever-expanding sea of competing
they buy at their supermarket and in the ingredients they use to products. In the minds of many consumers, it is from the past – it
cook at home. Media and bloggers encourage this quest. The food debuted in the 1990s – and has no special point of difference.
industry has responded with a proliferation of products.
The restless, food-explorer consumer can find a wealth of online
People have been trained since the 1980s to expect more. recommendations for kombucha, kimchi, sauerkraut, kefir, pickles,
Experimenting with food is increasingly part of people’s identity and vinegars and a host of other fermented foods for digestive health.
their biggest source of pleasure. The fact that these foods are presented as “natural” and “traditional”
appeals too.
As a result, people are engaged in a restless, never-ending quest for
products that: And so while all of these fermented foods grab the attention of social
media and consumers, Activia is left behind - the victim of our quest
• offer new and interesting taste experiences
for the new, the exciting and the different.
• are convenient
• match their evolving and complex health beliefs
This quest has given birth to new brands and new categories
seemingly out of nowhere – and it can also pull the rug from under
any product that doesn’t measure up to changing expectations. For
today’s consumers, if your brand or commodity is seen as everyday
and unexciting, no amount of new product development or brand
repositioning is going to turn things around.

BOX 4: WEIGHT WELLNESS & APPEARANCE AT THE ROOT OF EVERYTHING

What most people want, more than anything else, is to look good The desire to look good and feel good is one reason why sport
and feel good. It’s these two simple needs that drive much of the has become dominant in our society, with people wearing sport
clothing industry – which designs clothes that enable people to clothes all day, wearing trainers to the office, accessing fitness blogs
flaunt their physical assets and conceal their flaws – as well as the and much more. And the dietary choices made by well-known
exercise industry and the whole business of ‘wellness’. sports people influence the choices of health-conscious people
– particularly Millennials – which is why companies use sports
Keeping your body in shape, keeping the kilos off, and ensuring
personalities as brand ambassadors and why products that connect
that your skin is looking good matters enormously to consumers.
to sport have been successful.
Even digestive wellness (Key Trend 1) has weight wellness as an
underlying driver – brands like Activia yoghurt, for example, have Moreover, sports and fitness enthusiasts are early adopters of
long marketed themselves as a way to prevent bloating and the new foods and new diets. Their endless quest to optimise their
‘feeling fat’ that comes with digestive disorder. performance makes them the canaries in the coal mine for the
nutrition business. What they do has an influence on their friends and
Weight wellness has shifted from being about a special category of
colleagues and helps spread interest in different ways of eating.
foods to an everyday part of people’s lifestyles. They wish to make
They have already:
everyday choices from among “normal” foods. The proliferation of
salad bars, health-oriented quick-service restaurant chains in major 1. Taken protein from the gym to mass market and helped
cities are all driven to an extent by consumers’ efforts to keep a legitimise it as a healthier everyday nutrient
good shape and weight.
2. Popularised vegetable protein
This is why the Special K breakfast cereal brand, once the world’s
3. Created awareness of low-carb, high-fat (LCHF) diets
biggest weight management food brand, saw sales collapse.
Chomping through two bowls of breakfast cereal a day doesn’t 4. Been at the forefront of reducing sugar intake
fit with this approach to health – and Special K has no point of
5. And they are in the lead in embracing personalisation
difference any longer in a world in which it’s easy to make healthy
choices. If you want to know what’s going to happen, look at what
sports enthusiasts are doing.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 5 www.new-nutrition.com

 CHART 1: BRANDS IN THIS REPORT ON THE NUTRITIONAL PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE
10 Key Trends 2019 Introduction

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET

CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

www.new-nutrition.com
Key Trend 1
Digestive
Wellness
Key Trend 2
Plant-based
Key Trend 3
Protein
Key Trend 4
Sugar
Key Trend 5
Good carbs,

6
bad carbs
Key Trend 6
Fragmentation &
personalisation
One 150g pot of Arla Keso Mellanmål contains:
Ingredients: Pasteurised milk, salt,
whey permeate, modified starch,
preservatives, starter culture, rennet.
Key Trend 7
In the lid: Roasted cashew nuts 50%,
dried pineapple 17%, dried orange
peel 17%, dried papaya 16%.
Snackification
Oreo is the UK’s fastest growing
biscuit brand, with sales increasing
8% in 2017. Its Oreo Thins
innovation, launched in December
2016, is said to be the main reason
Key Trend 8
for the brand’s success.

© New Nutrition Business 2018

Beverages
redefined
Key Trend 9
Fat reborn
low-fat
milk
whole
milk
Key Trend 10
Authenticity &
Provenance
10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers
Solid line = volume, tonnes/litres sold Broken line = price per kilo/litre
 Key trenD 1
DIGESTIVE 
WELLNESS
WHERE OPPORTUNITIES FLOURISH
The biggest driver of growth in food and health is
sprouting in new directions, fueled by science and
consumers' willingness to embrace new formats.
Consumers'
drivers of digestive wellness:
New science is highlighting the importance
TOP 3
"good foods" for
SCIENCE of the microbiome and how it can
affect overall health and wellbeing. digestive health:

MEDIA
The media loves talking about
traditional/natural food benefits, particularly
Fruits Vegetables
ATTENTION
those everyone wants, like digestive
wellbeing.

PRODUCT
Companies are reinventing and re-
positioning traditional foods, offering new
Yoghurt
DEVELOPMENT
products and paths to digestive health. 

Consumers are strongly benefit-focused, and

CONSUMER
But... there are many
digestive is an area where they can easily feel opportunities for product
the issues (bloating,irregularity) and the
NEED
developers as consumers are
benefits of diet changes and new products.  open to more types of
foods/drinks than ever before!

FERMENTATION
&  FODMAPs A2 DAIRY
PROBIOTICS 

6
The       strategies to digestive wellness
LACTOSE PREBIOTICS PLANT
FREE &  MILKS
FIBRE
© New Nutrition Business 2018 7 www.new-nutrition.com
 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

Key Trend 1:
Digestive Wellness – where
opportunities flourish
SUMMARY
• The biggest driver of growth in food and beverage: Set to be
even bigger as the science of the human microbiome develops.
• Fragmenting consumer behaviour: Once dominated by probiotic
dairy and high-fibre grain products, the landscape is changing rapidly as
people embrace more types of foods and drinks than ever before.
• Nothing should be dismissed as ‘too weird’: In digestive wellness,
wacky works. This trend has a long history of apparently strange products
and ideas being embraced by consumers and becoming successful. Long
dismissed as weird, A2 Milk now outsells plant milks in Australia, and is
found in mainstream stores from the US to the UK, and soon Singapore
too. It’s a success that comes from delivering a ‘feel the benefit’ effect.
• The next gluten-free: Also thrown into the ‘too weird to succeed’
bucket is FODMAPS. Backed by science, it’s already being embraced by
both start-ups and science-based food giants, such as Schär, Europe’s
biggest gluten-free brand.
• Fermentation & probiotic innovation: The biggest opportunities
lie in the increasing variety of forms in which consumers buy fermented
foods and beverages. From kimchi to kefir to kombucha, consumers are
willing to experiment with categories far beyond the yogurt aisle.

DIGESTIVE WELLNESS CONNECTS WITH 5 OTHER KEY TRENDS

© New Nutrition Business 2018 8 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

Digestive wellness is – and has been for The trend is driven by: and researchers are seized upon by
most of the past 25 years – the biggest journalists and bloggers who have online
driver of growth in the food and health 1.SCIENCE space to fill. Consumers don’t need to
market, and is showing every sign that it There’s a steady stream of studies search hard to find articles about “how
will be even more of a driver in future. linking the health of the human to change your microbiome” and “gut
It’s fast developing and sprouting in new gut microbiome – the community makeover plans” or telling us that “what
directions as the science of the human of microorganisms in the gut – to happens in your belly doesn’t stay in
microbiome builds, and as consumers wider health issues, such as weight your belly” and that the gut is a “second
demonstrate their willingness to embrace management, cognition and mood. brain” capable of influencing a variety
new and unusual products. If you ever of processes in the body. The media
need reminding how seemingly strange 2.ONLINE MEDIA ATTENTION also likes the idea of traditional and
and unacceptable products and ideas can Statistical work by NNB has shown natural foods of any kind and as a result
become successful, you need only look at that developments in science fuel media terms like ‘fermented’ are becoming an
the digestive health field. attention. Press releases by universities everyday and familiar idea.
The single-best example of this is
Japanese company Yakult Honsha, whose
65ml daily-dose probiotic dairy drink CHART 2: CONSUMERS RANK ‘GOOD’ FOODS FOR DIGESTIVE
was launched in 1955. HEALTH
The company began
internationalising its
brand in 1964, promoting
the benefits of probiotics
before anyone had heard
of the word. Yakult
has been dismissed as
‘weird’ time-and-again by
industry executives – but today it’s the
world’s biggest probiotic dairy brand,
found in South and North America,
Europe and Asia, with $5.5 billion (€4.7
billion) in global retail sales.
Its success has spawned a host of
emulators, best-known of which is
Danone’s Activia brand, also with
around $5.5 billion in global sales.
Although the digestive wellness trend
was for decades led and defined by
probiotic dairy and high-fibre cereals
and breads, the landscape is changing
rapidly. The doors are open to many
opportunities for product developers as
consumers show they are open to more
types of foods and drinks than ever
before. The fragmentation of consumer
beliefs (see Key Trend 6) is opening
up opportunities both big and small
as people are willing to consider more
ingredients, and more types of products.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 9 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

3. PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
CHART 3:Digestive
DIGESTIVE ISSUES
health THAT MOTIVATE
symptoms PEOPLE
that motivate consumers
Companies of all sizes, in many
categories, are reinventing and re-
positioning traditional foods (see Key
Trend 10 Provenance) that have some Bloating Intolerances
connection to digestive wellness –
ranging from kimchi to sourdough bread IBS

to kefir and kombucha.

Gas
Constipation

4. CONSUMER NEED
Consumers’ motivations are strongly
benefit-focused and range from bloating Helps Regular Diarrhea
digestion transit
and discomfort to medical conditions.
People are driven by their need to “feel
comfortable inside”. In digestive wellness,
as with a few other benefits such as
energy, one of the biggest marketing Digestive Comfort Medical Conditions
advantages a product can have, and the
surest way to create loyalty for a brand, is CHART 4: CONSUMERS RANK ‘BAD’ FOODS FOR DIGESTIVE
to deliver a benefit that the consumer can HEALTH
quickly see or feel.
That benefit is defined by the
consumer’s own experience and often is
not the same as a benefit that can readily
be identified and accepted by science.
An example of how significant
digestive wellness issues can be for
consumers is the problem of bloating.
This is one of the areas in which
digestive health overlaps with ideas about
weight and body shape. People who are
feeling bloated are also often concerned
about maintaining a good shape.
Preventing a bloated and distended
stomach is one way to maintain that
good figure. Companies such as Danone
discovered this long ago and made
targeting bloating one of the key benefits
of their Activia yoghurt brand.

Danone’s
Activia ads
targeting
bloating
recognise
the link to
consumers’
concerns about
body shape
and weight.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 10 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

What can companies do?

Ranked from biggest to smallest by
their potential for significant long-term
growth, here are the opportunities for
companies.

1. PROBIOTICS &
FERMENTATION
Fermented products are becoming
an everyday and familiar idea in many
countries with sales growing strongly as
consumers discover more convenient and
modern versions of traditional foods.
• Kimchi, for example, was
unknown in most western
countries 10 years ago, but is
rapidly becoming ubiquitous
• Kombucha, also once unknown, CHART 5: CONSUMER PERCEPTIONS AROUND PROBIOTICS
can now be found on sale in bars
and pubs from Amsterdam to
rural Scotland
• Kefir, an obscure drink from
eastern Europe, shows up in most
US and UK supermarkets

It’s the success of probiotic dairy that

has helped familiarise people with the
idea of fermentation and ‘good bacteria’.
Probiotic dairy is still growing in Asia but
in Europe and the US probiotic dairy
brands are either approaching maturity
or facing decline – a decline which
may worsen if consumers switch their
digestive wellness focus to the emerging
categories.
Danone Activia, for example, has
struggled in most countries as it has
become a mass-market yoghurt brand
with no strong point of difference.
Danone tried to reposition Activia
towards younger consumers with a major
re-launch in 2017 – a re-launch which
failed because it is older consumers
who are the core buyers of digestive
wellness products. Younger consumers
are busy embracing more exciting,
artisanal products (see Key Trend 10),
from sourdough to kimchi to kombucha.
Activia is past its peak and set on a path
of long-term decline.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 11 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

Restaurateurs are joining packaged mainstream. PepsiCo’s commitment to

foods companies in experimenting with the category has already woken up other
and educating consumers about products companies – notably brewers – to the
that bring the zing of live bacteria and growth potential.
their associated tastes and benefits to Because convenience rules, snacks are
categories far beyond the yogurt aisle. also likely to do well. Selling fermented
Typical of trends in healthier eating, pickles in glass jars sounds great and in
the rise of fermented foods is being line with the hipster ethic that currently
driven by online discussion by fermented pervades the fermentation start-ups, but
food advocates and consumer curiosity it’s a format that’s just not convenient
about their claims. Fermented foods enough for most consumers, even early
are also commonly discussed in the adopters. Better to deliver an on-the-go
mainstream media, including health salad for one with a fork/spoon in the
magazines found at the checkout at pack, positioned as a snack or as a side
normal grocery stores. dish and sold in the chiller cabinet.
With their strong connection to Seize the day on the
digestive wellness – the biggest of the fermentation opportunity.
growth trends – and to traditional The market for fermented foods
beliefs about their healthfulness, not to is probably now where the probiotic
mention the link to Asian cuisine with yoghurt market was 15 years ago. It’s a
its ever-rising popularity and healthy good time to take a calculated risk on a
image, everything is in place to suggest development that links to some powerful
fermented products will be an enduring growth trends.
growth trend. The two big questions for Given how rapidly ideas spread in
most companies, however, are: our connected world, and how quickly
• which categories will win even big companies are learning to take
• how to participate in these risks on emerging categories, waiting to
emerging markets see what emerges and entering later is
probably the least wise strategy you can
In terms of which categories will profit adopt.
most, the key consumer requirement of
convenience will be a deciding factor
(see Key Trend 7). Fermented beverages BOX 5: KIMCHI’S WIDENING APPEAL
look certain to be a winner. They deliver
convenience and have the potential to While in the UK the mention of spicy sour
answer peoples’ quest for drinks that are veg may sounds outlandish, put it on top of a
interesting, healthier and lower in sugar. burger, and you’ll get an edgy fast-food dish.
Beverages have already marked out their That’s exactly what Kimchi Cult, a Glasgow,
Scotland-based Korean-style restaurant has
place as the most-likely-
done. The Kimchi Cult’s menu includes more
to-thrive category with
traditional Korean foods, like bibimbap and
the success of kombucha, bao, as well as the quintessentially Western
now fuelled by the entry burger and fries whose appeal has been
of PepsiCo, owner of boosted by a topping of the fermented veg.
successful and fast- Its success shows how even foods once
growing fermented drinks considered bizarre can appeal to mainstream
maker KeVita, and Coca- consumers and become a great point of
difference from
Cola’s recent purchase
the run-of-the mill
of Australian kombucha
takeaways.
maker Mojo. These steps
mean that kombucha
will become more

© New Nutrition Business 2018 12 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

BOX 6: KEFIR FOR DAIRY-AVOIDERS

Dairy kefir drinks are growing in popularity, but they’re not On the other hand, probiotics seemed like a great opportunity –
what you reach for when it’s refreshment or post-exercise and that was the path Hurtado took, focusing on fermentation and
recovery you’re looking for. But Spanish start-up Prokey is probiotics, and pushing the digestive benefit to the foreground.
firmly targeting sports people, as well as health-conscious
The first Prokey drinks were launched in 2016. The 500ml bottled
consumers concerned with gut health, with its water-based
drinks sell for a suggested price of €2.25-€2.50 ($2.65-$2.95)
kefir drink which has the added benefit of a long shelf life
online and through health food stores, herbalists and sports nutrition
at ambient temperatures.
shops.
The venture started in the most traditional way possible – with
The range currently includes four kefir water flavours and one
biochemist Albert Hurtado making homemade kefir. “I was brewing
kombucha (with new flavours in development).
water kefir at home,” Hurtado said, “and I wondered, if there is milk
kefir in supermarkets, why there isn’t water kefir?”
“I decided to create a probiotic drink without the main problems
of currently-sold products – the short shelf-life, cold storage and
transportation. So, our probiotic drinks are sold at room temperature
and have a long shelf-life of 1.5 years,” Hurtado said.
A digestive wellness promise lies at the heart of messaging. Hurtado
initially considered marketing Prokey Drinks on a low-sugar and
low-calorie platform, but market research revealed a myriad of
other beverages offering the same benefit.

BOX 7: SUPER-PREMIUM NON-DAIRY YOGHURT A CULT HIT

Coconut Cult nondairy yogurt is a niche hit in the US manager for the California-based start-up. “In reality, this is a
despite a super-premium price – and the potential to erupt probiotic supplement with 25 billion [live cultures] per serving. We
on opening. What’s driving the success of this probiotic deliver a therapeutic dose of probiotics. Activia, kombucha and
powerhouse? all the other stuff out there deliver it in much smaller doses. Plus the
diversity of probiotics we include is good for consumption. We
Coconut Cult non-dairy yogurt is flying off the shelves of American
compare it to the difference between a little putt-putt Toyota Prius
specialty groceries in California, New York and elsewhere because
and a performance vehicle.”
of its probiotic density, its novelty value, its plant-ingredient base
at an on-trend time, and the enthusiasm of Instagram “influencers”, Leading with the probiotic benefit, Coconut Cult initially sold through
other social-media commentators and the occasional mainstream Californian juice bars before adding retail distribution in specialty
celebrity who testify to its efficacy and overall appeal. natural-foods grocers.
The product is jammed with 10 times more probiotics than the Because probiotics are so abundant in Coconut Cult, the company
average yogurt, is packaged says that first-time or newer consumers
in a large glass jar, illustrates can have difficulty in bodily adjustments,
its very tart taste on its website including “bowel movement and mild
with a frowning emoji and headaches”. So the brand recommends an
retails for an eye-popping initial serving of a few spoonfuls and that
$24.50 (€19.85) per 473ml consumers ramp up the volume from there as
container. their bodies adjust.
Prolific probiotics are the The large glass jar is an important symbolic
main reason Coconut Cult is and functional aspect of Coconut Cult (see
so expensive, said Pancho Key Trend 10 Provenance).
Gomez, business-development

© New Nutrition Business 2018 13 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

2. FODMAPS are well-aligned for FODMAP-friendly: the tiny percentage of the population
When a major brand commits itself 1. Backed by science: Pioneered diagnosed with coeliac disease.
to a still-emerging trend, it’s worth by Monash University in Australia, 5. Easy to feel the benefit: People
sitting up and paying attention. In 2018 FODMAPs is backed by a growing body experiencing digestive discomfort are
Europe’s biggest gluten-free brand – of scientific studies. strongly motivated to take steps that
Schär – became the first major brand to 2. Accepted by dietitians: The make them feel better. This has driven
offer low-FODMAP accredited products concept has been gaining acceptance demand for plant milks, and probiotic
in supermarkets. among dietitians and gastroenterologists yoghurts. A FODMAP-friendly diet
The ten products – certified low over the last few years. enables people to quickly ‘feel the
FODMAP by Monash University in 3. Growing media and consumer benefit’.
Australia – represent the first steps attention in markets as diverse as These factors make this trend unlike
towards FODMAPs becoming as Spain and Finland. The percentage of many others, in that it is an opportunity
everyday a message in the supermarket consumers who say they follow a low for established companies who are
as gluten-free. FODMAPs diet is 3% in the UK, 6% in science-driven as well as for start-ups.
A low-FODMAP or FODMAP- the US and 4.4% in Australia, according Nestlé, Kellogg, Baker’s Delight (a
friendly diet is a solution for sufferers of to NNB’s consumer research survey. mass-market bakery chain in Australia),
the digestive complaint irritable bowel 4. A diet for self-diagnosers: Fazer (the biggest bakery in the Nordic
syndrome (IBS) which affects one in FODMAPs has potential to gain countries) have all launched FODMAP-
seven adults worldwide. According to followers beyond the 10%-15% of people friendly products or re-labelled existing
Schär, a third of UK adults (32%) said who have IBS – just as the gluten-free products as FODMAP-friendly.
they have or have had IBS, equating market has grown to be far bigger than
to over 16 million people, and about 3
million follow a low-FODMAP diet to BOX 8: WHAT IS FODMAPS?
manage their symptoms.
FODMAP is an acronym for fermentable FODMAPs in food include:
The supermarkets stocking the
oligosaccharides, disaccharides,
Schär products are all the mainstream • Fructans (a fiber in wheat, onions,
monosaccharides, and polyols. These
market leaders – Tesco, Asda Walmart, garlic, and chicory root)
short-chain carbohydrates are not absorbed
Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Waitrose, The well during digestion, and bacteria in • Fructose
Co-operative, Ocado and Booths. the digestive tract can quickly ferment
• GOS (a fiber in beans, hummus, and
That this pioneer in gluten-free should FODMAPs. The result can be diarrhea,
soy milk)
have chosen to step so early into the constipation, gas, bloating, and abdominal
emerging FODMAPs trend is a sign of pain. • Lactose
how seriously the trend can be taken Eliminating FODMAPs from the diet improves • Sorbitol, mannitol, and other sugar
– and how consumers are likely to be symptom management in 68–76% of alcohols
increasingly influenced, since the Schär patients with IBS. Clinically, a low-FODMAP Although gluten is not a high-FODMAP
brand delivers very effective consumer diet is recommended for people with IBS, protein, the grains that contain gluten
Crohn’s disease, colitis, and other functional —wheat, rye, and barley — have high-
education in all its markets.
gastrointestinal disorders. FODMAP components.
Unlike many dietary patterns, the stars

Fazer’s low-FODMAP bread was launched in Finland as “the world’s first low-
FODMAP bread” and “the only real rye bread that is suitable for people with a
sensitive stomach”. The lactic acid bacteria used to make the sourdough bread
helps to reduce FODMAP-carbohydrates: it contains only 0.4g of FODMAPs,
while regular breads typically contain around 1g-2g per 100g.
Fazer’s latest ingredient innovation is LOFO bread improver, said to “give
FODMAP-sensitive people access to bakery products with less fructan in their
diet” and billed as  the world’s first convenient low-FODMAP baking solution.
Incorporating the enzyme fructanase, LOFO breaks down fructans into more
easily digestible units during the baking process. “These smaller units are often
gentler to the stomach,” said Fazer.
Announcing the new product, Fazer said that 20% of consumers avoid bread to
feel better in their stomachs. “FODMAPs are a potential, yet relatively unknown
explanation for this common wellness concern,” it added. “That is why Low- Schär’s FODMAP range – bread loaves, rolls,
FODMAP products are expected to become the next big thing in stomach baguette, ciabatta, pizza bases and grissini – is
wellness – a game changer in the market for baked goods for digestive well- clearly labelled both gluten-free and low FODMAP
being.” as well as wheat-free and lactose-free.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 14 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

BOX 9: FODMAP-FRIENDLY READY MEALS LAUNCH IN UK

Launched in early 2018 in the UK, Fodilicious provides the and US market thriving in regards to low FODMAP foods, she said,
UK’s first gluten-free and dairy-free freshly prepared meals “it is much more recognised that there is demand for low FODMAP
which cater to a low FODMAP diet. Founder Lauren Leisk, convenience food products in the UK”.
who has suffered from IBS since she was 20 years old, discovered
Fodilicious launched 20 freshly prepared, microwaveable meals as
FODMAPs and found it extremely effective. Fast-forward a few years
its first product range, including vegan dishes, all gluten-free – and
and her demanding job and lifestyle were making following a low
the first meal products in the world to achieve certification from
FODMAP diet difficult. “I had a really busy lifestyle, and struggled
Australian body Fodmap Friendly (one of two FODMAP certifying
to find readily available food products suitable for my dietary
bodies, along with Monash University).
requirements, and discovered a gap in the UK market to fulfil,” she
told New Nutrition Business. Customers can order the meals online (fodilicious.com), and orders
are posted on their chosen delivery day, UK wide.
Leisk realised she wasn’t alone. “There is a huge increase in
the number of people who are working full time and living busy
lifestyles, which is a main reason why the convenience food market is
growing,” she said. “However, our research discovered that people
who suffer from IBS have to freshly prepare their meals each night as
they struggle to source convenience food products suitable for their
diet – making this our main target market.”
She says the growth of IBS in the general population represents
around 13 million consumers in the UK alone. And with the Australian

BOX 10: GLUTEN-FREE NO LONGER A POINT OF DIFFERENCE

Gluten free remains an opportunity if you are in the grains business, kitchen staples, dressings and marinades,” said the company.
in bread and bakery for example, and you want to give people
“Awareness of the low FODMAP diet is growing exponentially and
permission to indulge, or position your products as a ‘good carb’
helping many of those suffering from IBS begin to live symptom-free
(Key Trend 5). But the gluten-free message is so common in other
lives,” said CEO Singer. “We are thrilled to play a role in bringing
categories that it’s not a strong point of difference any more, and the
relief to the IBS community, including our fantastic partnership with
25%-30% of people who look for gluten-free foods are well catered
Sprouts that will allow customers with IBS and other digestive issues
for.
enjoy the incredible benefits of the low FODMAP diet and Fody
And if anything, the rise of FODMAPs may pull some people away Foods.”
from gluten-free – as is happening in Australia – as they learn that it
Singer sees lots of similarities between the two companies. “The
was fructans that were causing their digestive issues, not gluten.
greatest part of Glutino was helping millions of people living with
One of the signs of FODMAPs’ potential is the decision by one of the celiac disease manage a gluten-free diet and ultimately feel better,”
pioneers of the gluten-free business to go into it. Founded by Steven said Singer. “The Low FODMAP diet, which involves eliminating
J Singer, the entrepreneur behind the successful Glutino gluten-free certain foods such as garlic and honey, is medically proven to
company, Fody aims to create a one-stop shop for low FODMAP reduce the triggering of uncomfortable symptoms associated with
dieters. IBS.”
In late 2017 it raised $2.25 million (€1.85 million) through Avrio
Capital to help accelerate its USA and Canadian distribution
presence both online and in retail. And in October 2018, it
announced that it was going into Sprouts Farmers Market stores
across the US. “Now, the estimated 45 million Americans suffering
from Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) can visit one of the more than
300 Sprouts locations across 19 states and choose from Fody’s line
of low FODMAP foods, including low FODMAP snacks, sauces,

© New Nutrition Business 2018 15 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

3. A2 DAIRY milk market, despite selling at a 100% A2 dairy is a marginal idea. That is a
Fifteen years ago A2 Milk was a start- premium to supermarket own-brand mistake. In 15 years A2 Milk has gone
up with scarcely any sales. It was locked milk. from pariah to the world’s most successful
in a legal battle with Fonterra, the giant The company is slowly pushing dairy business. It’s a case we can all learn
New Zealand dairy co-operative; the forward in the US and UK, with sales from.
science behind its claimed health benefit modest but up by 50% in 2018. A2 The pressing consumer need for
was under attack and rivals were critical fresh liquid milk reached distribution in digestive wellness and to “feel the
of its marketing. 6,000 stores, including Wegmans, Publix benefit” has shown how powerful an
Now A2 is the world’s most profitable and others, and a Walmart roll-out is influence it is on consumer markets.
dairy company. Fonterra is signed up as planned. In the UK the brand is in 2,000 The success of A2 Milk also illustrates
both a marketing partner in A2’s strategy stores, and elsewhere the company has: that it’s not just plant milks that can
taking its products to market in Asia, • signed an agreement with South thrive by offering an “easy to digest”
and as a supplier of milk. And the New Korean pharmaceutical firm alternative to conventional cows’ milk.
Zealand government is helping fund Yuhan Corporation to distribute And it shows that no idea should ever be
clinical studies into A2 milk’s benefits. A2 products in South Korea discarded as ‘too niche’ or ‘too weird’.
The scale of A2’s success is shown by • partnered with Vinamilk –
its latest financial results, which show a Vietnam’s biggest dairy – to
68% jump in sales to NZ$922.7 million launch A2 milk
($615 million/€531 million) and a 101% • an A2 launch in Singapore is
increase in operating profit to NZ$283 planned for 2019
million ($189 million/€163 million). That
gives the company – which is NZ-owned It is infant formula that has really
and headquartered in Australia – an made A2 Milk take off. A2 Platinum –
impressive 31% profit margin. That’s a the brand name of the company’s Stages
level of profit more common for energy 1-4 formula – accounts for 78% of the
drinks than for dairy. company’s sales. In Australia the brand’s
First launched in Australia and New value share of the infant formula in
Zealand in 2004, A2 Milk is a standard market is 32% and in China 5.1%. Nestlé
milk with one important difference – it – the market leader in infant formula
does not contain any A1 protein, one of in China with a 17% share – has been
the two main types of beta-casein protein forced to follow A2’s lead, launching a
fractions found in milk. The other main new A2 line.
type is A2 protein, from which A2 Milk Many in the dairy industry think that
takes its name.
A2 Milk believes that many people
who are intolerant to milk have an
intolerance specifically to A1 protein.
When they drink standard milk products,
they may suffer symptoms of digestive
discomfort such as bloating, abdominal
pain and diarrhea – symptoms similar to
those of lactose intolerance.
The strapline used to market A2 Milk
is “Feel the difference”. And clearly
enough people do believe that they feel a
difference.
The A2 concept has been a hit with
Australian consumers. From zero in 2004,
A2 milk has achieved an astonishing
9.5% value share of Australia’s A$1.1
billion ($850 million/€687 million) fresh An increasing number of regional dairies in the US are readying themselves in expectation of the emergence of
an adult market for A2 milk, with several launching products with A2 milk in 2018.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 16 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

4. LACTOSE-FREE • sales of all other types of plant

Plant milks – and particularly almond milks were $430 million (€375
milk – have been the big success story of million) and grew just 2.8%
the last 10 years. They seemed like an
unstoppable force that was going to go on In the US, lactose-free milks grew
taking business away from dairy milk. while selling at a premium price, even as
But in the US lactose-free milk is fast regular milk experienced falling prices.
catching up with almond milk, because In the UK, according to Nielsen data,
dairy companies have begun to change a similar pattern is emerging. In 2018:
the rules of the game, marketing their • lactose-free milk sales were £79.6
lactose-free dairy milks’ taste advantages million (€69 million) – essentially
and versatility in a wide variety of ways one brand, Arla’s Lactofree with a
(much more usable in beverages and growth rate of 16.5%
foods and in cooking than most plant • almond and coconut milks’ sales
milks). combined were £102 million (€89
The Fairlife million), a growth rate of 15%
brand, more than • plant milks’ value share of the
any other, has total UK milk market was 7.6%
reinvented cows’
milk, creating In Europe, although it is still behind
a product that the US, lactose-free products are
delivers more becoming more common with mass-
protein (Key Trend market yoghurt brands such as Müller
3) and less sugar and Danone Activia offering lactose-free
(Key Trend 4) – variants in supermarkets throughout
two of the most Europe.
important benefits That lactose-free milk is competitive
to health-aware against plant-based alternatives
consumers – as well underscores how it is the digestive
as digestive wellness health benefit that primarily motivates
from being lactose- consumers – much more than a desire for
free. plants.
Not only that, but plant milks, with
their 15-20-strong ingredient lists, fail the
test of ‘natural’ and ‘least-processed’ in
the minds of many consumers.
Now there are lactose-free dairy
products that taste as good as, or
better than, most plant milks, are more
adaptable and deliver on sugar, protein
and digestive wellness. Lactose-free milk
is growing faster than almond milk and
sales may catch-up with almond milk
within the next two-to-three years. In
2018:
• lactose-free milk sales were $954
million (€831 million), growth rate
14%
• almond milk sales were $1.154
billion (€1 billion), growth rate Once unknown, lactose-free versions of even the
biggest mainstream brands are now an everyday
12% sight in the supermarket.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 17 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

5. PREBIOTICS AND FIBRE fibre, for example. pasta in Australia, New Zealand, and
Despite having a formidable platform One prebiotic which suffers less from the United States and appears in 22
of scientific evidence in support of their this disadvantage is resistant starch different product lines in Japan and
benefits – enough to secure a rare health (RS). A form of starch which cannot be China – including soba noodles, rice balls
claim under the European Food Safety digested in the small intestine, it is a fibre and western-style products like granola,
Authority’s demanding rules – and a which is fermented in the large intestine, breakfast cereals and pancake mix.
wealth of applications, prebiotics for where it feeds the bacteria in your gut. “There is this really great awakening
digestive wellness have gained ground RS has the advantage that is associated that a healthy gut microbiome has an
only slowly. with more readily recognisable plant influence on obesity and diseases such as
Prebiotics have a wealth of technical sources. One of the best sources is green colorectal cancer,” Robert Burbury, CEO
advantages – such as being very effective bananas, and a flour made from green of The Healthy Grain, which markets
sugar replacers – but they are held back bananas is marketed by companies such BarleyMax, told New Nutrition Business.
by their name. The word “prebiotic” as International Agriculture Group as “Our development of this business
has understanding only among the small a gluten-replacer. Other good sources seems to be almost perfectly aligned with
group of people who (for example) buy include chickpeas and lentils and some growing interest in health and wellness
prebiotic powder to add to their breakfast varieties of grains, such as barley. and specifically in digestive health,”
cereal and it has limited awareness in the Resistant starch also benefits from added Burbury.
wider consumer market. Its visibility in its increasing identification in online Australian brand Goodness Superfoods
online and social media is very low. consumer media as a ‘good carb’ (Key was the first to release products
Also, “prebiotics” sounds much like Trend 5) for its effects on reducing blood containing BarleyMax in 2009, with
prebiotics. Confusion between the two sugar. It also comes with a back story of two breakfast cereals called Protein 1st
terms is a recurring theme in media. being an important part of traditional and Digestive 1st, and the number of
Any executives who think this can be diets. Amazingly the term “resistant foods containing the grain has been
changed with consumer education are starch’ is showing up in social media, expanding rapidly since. Freedom Foods
deluding themselves. Tens of millions was it has emerged in consumer research Group touts the digestive health benefits
invested in consumer education about as familiar to the leading-edge and of its Barley+ range of toasted mueslis
prebiotics by both ingredient suppliers most-health-active consumers. And it and snack bars in the United States and
and brands in the early 2000s and the bid featured as a good carb in a BBC science Australia, while the Australian bakery
failed. Brands that flagged up prebiotic programme about diet and health, firm Alpine Breads markets loaves that
on the packaging – such as Nestlé presented by a physician, in which its play up the grain’s heart health benefits.
breakfast cereals – found that it made no benefits for diabetics and gut health were Others that contain BarleyMax include
difference to sales. discussed. bread brands Bodhi’s Bakehouse and
Because few consumers are familiar One of the emerging successes Edward’s Sourdough.
with the term, brands using prebiotics in resistant starch is BarleyMax, an Compared to commodity grains like
to deliver a digestive benefit have tended ingredient developed in the late 1990s ordinary wheat or barley, BarleyMax
either to combine it with another by researchers at CSIRO, Australia’s is about three times the price, but is
ingredient with a stronger gut health government-backed science organisation. cheaper than other specialty grains like
association – such as kiwifruit – or Introduced to the market in 2009, it quinoa or chia.
‘normalise’ it and make it more natural can be found in products like breakfast
by referencing it as fibre or chicory root cereals, baked goods, noodles and

© New Nutrition Business 2018 18 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

6. PLANT MILKS: IS PEAK PLANT down as a ‘big niche’. With over 200 growth will result from competing
MILK APPROACHING? plant milk-based products launched in successfully on taste, hydration and
The plant milk trend is most advanced the US in the past three years, the niche refreshment more than on health.
in the US, where sales of almond milk is now crowded, and plant milks are fast Fragmentation of consumer beliefs (see
grew from close to zero in 2007 to $1.154 losing their point of difference. The days Key Trend 6) has created consumer
billion (€1 billion) in 2018, according to of easy growth are coming to an end. interest in plant milks and it’s that
IRI data, and plant milks have a 12% Behind the rosy picture that’s often same fragmentation of beliefs that will
share of the liquid milk market. portrayed of plant milks, there must be eventually bring an end to the current
Consumers’ desire to avoid the many disappointed plant milk executives. frenzy.
digestive discomfort that many associate Califia Farms, for example, which has Convenience will also become more
with cows’ milk has been the key driver excelled at marketing and PR, only important. Some brands are offering
of growth in this segment, alongside the managed 1% growth for its almond milk single-serve forms and no 1-litre packs
introduction of products, particularly in 2018 in a segment that grew by 12% (such as Plenish and Raw in the UK),
almond, that offer far better taste profiles and its sales have yet to reach the $100 putting them in competition with all
than dairy alternatives did in the past. million (€87 million) mark. other refreshment drinks, not just cows’
Perhaps unfashionably, we no longer The market is dominated by almond milk. And it’s also notable that juice
agree with the milk, and although there are many and smoothie companies are including
consensus that alternatives, some growing fast, they are oat, almond and other milks in their
plant milks are small and none have the appealing taste offering – Coca-Cola-owned Innocent,
a revolutionary of almond. In the US their combined for example, Europe’s biggest smoothie
opportunity. growth rate is just 2.8% – held down company.
They were about by falling soy milk sales. And there’s a With the boundaries between
10 years ago, long tail of products and brands that categories disappearing, plant milks will
but they are are not doing well. Silk coconut milk, have to work harder. And with their long
approaching the for example, saw its sales fall by 8.7% in ingredient lists compared to fruit juices,
point where – 2018 as consumers experimented with many smoothies and dairy milk, their
while they will the many other brands and plant milks highly-processed nature may make them
still grow healthily that are battling for share in the niche. a less attractive choice for consumers
– they will settle Given another two or three years, who value these things.

BOX 11: ARE WE AT PEAK PLANT MILK?

With tens of products coming to market, and every PLANT MILKS LAUNCHED IN FRANCE:
70
type of proposition being offered, from almonds to
60
cashews to oats, have we passed peak plant milk? For
50
new entrants it may already be too late.
40
30
PLANT MILKS LAUNCHED IN THE USA: 20
110 10
100 0
90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
2018
80
70
PLANT MILKS LAUNCHED IN THE UK:
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10
10
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 0
2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
2018
Source: Mintel GNPD

© New Nutrition Business 2018 19 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Digestive Wellness

DIGESTIVE
WELLNESS
CHART 6: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 1, DIGESTIVE WELLNESS

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 7: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 1, DIGESTIVE WELLNESS

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET
CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

SALES

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 20 www.new-nutrition.com

 Key trenD 2

PLANT-BASED
EASY GREENS
People want to eat more plants, and creative NPD is
making it easier than ever.
Plant-based is an opportunity for every type of business!
SNACKING HIDDEN 
& MINI-MEALS BEVERAGES VEGETABLES
Convenient and snackified vegetables Change fueled by the desire to get Vegetables hidden in other foods
is the biggest area of opportunity for plants in more convenient ways. Taste (cookies, pizza crusts, bakery, ice-
both big and small companies. and refreshment are key drivers. cream...) give them a health halo so
they look like a better choice.

CENTRE-OF-PLATE DAIRY MEAT

"GOOD CARBS" ALTERNATIVES ALTERNATIVES
Consumers want to cut "bad carbs" and Not only milk, but yoghurt, desserts,
ice-cream and cheese make it For consumers willing to overlook
are willing to experiment with plant- highly processed products.
based alternatives: convenient forms of possible for consumers to choose
vegetables that replace "beige" carbs. plants.

Not just for Fragmented

vegetarians! consumer
We are NOT all turning into
20% motivations...
vegetarians or vegans. of consumers say they
are trying to reduce their People's motivations to eat more
meat consumption. plants are many and varied -
NPD is making it easier for wanting more plant protein in their
people to choose more plant- of diet, using plants to replace
based meals and snacks, but it consumers
"beige" carbs, connecting plant
doesn't mean people will stop 6-8% claim to be
vegetarian. foods with weight loss, and much
eating animal food. more...
© New Nutrition Business 2018 21 www.new-nutrition.com
 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

Key Trend 2:
Plant-based – easy greens fuel
growth
SUMMARY
• Plant-source ingredients have always been one of the biggest
drivers of the healthy revolution: Most of the big successes of the
past 20 years are plant-based, from blueberries to coconut water.
• It’s creative product development that is propelling the plant-
based trend, not vegetarianism and veganism: People have
always wanted to eat more plants, and now that they’re available in far
more convenient forms, they can. Millennials in particular are motivated
by ultra-convenient vegetables.
• We’re all food explorers now: People are looking for more novel
and exciting ingredients and tastes, and NPD makes it far easier to
choose plant-based meals that tick these boxes.
• The biggest opportunities lie in snacking and mini-meals, and
in beverages: In these categories, delivering taste, refreshment, and
satisfying consumers’ quest for the new and exciting matter more than
health or clean label.

PLANT-BASED CONNECTS WITH 8 OTHER KEY TRENDS

© New Nutrition Business 2018 22 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

People want to eat more plants – and wanted to eat more vegetables and
they’re open to trying plants in forms knew they should – it was the lack of
that weren’t available 10 years ago. The convenience that held back demand.
plant-based food and drinks trend is an And we must never underestimate
opportunity for every type of business. consumers’ appetite for novelty. Today
And it’s a great example of how product we are all food explorers, always open to
development skills can create new something new and interesting. And for
markets. that reason, we are still at Day 1 of the
What has brought the trend to life convenient vegetable trend.
and is driving its growth is creative
product development by food companies,
by retailers and vegetable growers,
whose efforts to make vegetables more
convenient reached a tipping point about
2014-15.
It’s now much easier for people to
include more vegetables in their diet
because they come in more inviting,
more convenient, more snackable and
better-tasting forms. People have always

Not just for vegetarians

The credit for the growth of the plant- group recently claimed that because A recent Gallup report found that just
based trend lies as much at the feet of more products in Europe were being 5% of Americans identify as vegetarian
NPD teams as with consumer behaviour. launched which flagged up that they and 3% as vegan – numbers that have
It’s NPD that is the big driver – not were “vegetarian”, that was the same barely changed since 2012.
vegetarianism and veganism. Because, as growing consumer demand. It is So it’s no accident that the plant-
contrary to what is often claimed by the not. A statistic like that tells you only based offerings of the Pret a Manger
media and second-rate market research, that marketers are mentioning whether food-to-go chain – in the UK, New York,
we’re not all turning into vegetarians. a product is suitable for vegetarians Paris, Hong Kong and elsewhere – are
If consumers can be described as – in the same way that they flag up marketed as “not just for vegetarians”.
“flexitarian” that’s largely because good gluten-free or dairy-free (a “vegan” or Their ready-to-go vegetable snacks pots
NPD is making it easier for people “vegetarian” flag won’t necessarily add to and meals for one make it easier for
to choose more plant-based meals sales – although if a product is naturally anyone to include more plants in their
and snacks, such as mini-beets and and already suitable for vegetarians or diet.
cauliflower rice and spiralised courgette. vegans, highlighting that on the pack is a And let’s not forget that the role of
The evidence from consumer research sensible, low-risk move). plants in the healthy eating revolution is
is that people want to include more As NNB’s own consumer survey not new – it has already been a key driver
vegetables in their diets. And that’s across found in 2018, in most countries around for over 20 years.
all age groups, not just Millennials: a 20% of people say they are trying to Plant-source ingredients have a
December 2017 report from the USDA’s reduce their meat consumption, but no “naturally healthy” halo, and most of the
Economic Research Service found more than 6%-8% of people are fully big success stories of the past 20 years
Millennials spent only slightly more per vegetarian. Many are reducing their have been about plant-based ingredients
capita than Generation X on fruits and consumption of red meat but keeping – almonds, blueberries, coconut water,
vegetables – and much less than Baby chicken and fish in their diet. Of the 21 olive oil. Anything that’s cool and
Boomers and their predecessors. meal occasions in a week, only around desirable mostly is plant-sourced, be it
But including more vegetables in 20% of people eat meatless meals quinoa, chia or turmeric (curcumin).
your diet is not the same as becoming (meaning no animal protein) on four or
vegetarian or vegan. One research more occasions of the 21.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 23 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

Convenience is king
As well as more plants, consumers
– particularly Millennials – want BOX 12: MAKING VEGETABLES ULTRA-CONVENIENT
convenience. It’s more important to
Millennials than to other age groups “Eating from the wall” – where vending
machines dispense savoury snacks for
when buying food to eat at home,
on-the-go convenience – is something
according to the USDA report. consumers in the Netherlands are used to.
Millennials spend the largest percentage Now, Dutch organisation The Fresh Produce
of their food budgets in categories Centre (Groenten Fruit Huis) wants to put
containing a lot of ready-to-eat foods. a fruity twist on this old idea: offering fresh
“Millennials are looking for solutions fruits and veggies in vending machines as a
that provide produce and nutrition way of increasing consumption.
without all the work,” says Chris In neighbouring
Pruneda, chief marketing officer of Belgium, Alberts is
Cece’s Veggie Noodle Co., a pioneer making getting a fresh
of fresh vegetable noodles that has just smoothie easier with
launched ready meals (see NNB February smoothie stations to
2018). “Essentially [we sell] produce with which consumers can
send a customized
the work taken out of it. Which is why I
order using an app.
think we definitely seem to connect with
and appeal to Millennials in a big way.”
Pre-cooked, ready-to-eat packaged
BOX 13: REINVENTING THE BEETROOT
beets from Love Beets also benefit
from this desire for convenience.
“Convenience is probably the secret • UK beet grower G’s Fresh had long supplied beets to retailers such as Sainsbury.
sauce to our product,” says Natasha To add value it launched the Love Beets brand of cooked beets in a convenient
Lichty, brand and marketing director. packaging suitable for snacking.
Convenience also comes in other ways. • Their main market is now the US. The products were originally British beets, but in 2015
“Instead of picking up one avocado, a lot the brand swapped to US supply and production.
of times Millennials will pick up a bag • The brand earned US sales of over $25 million in 2017, selling at a premium price.
of avocados,” says Steven Muro, founder
and president of Fusion Marketing, CHART 8: PRICING COMPARISON FOR BEETROOT
which works with fresh produce PRODUCTS IN THE US ($US)
associations and companies. “Instead of
picking up bulk mushrooms they’ll pick
e
up a [prepackaged box]. And if they’re
nsiv
e
preparing it in the next few days they’ll
exp
buy sliced mushrooms.” re
Of course, convenience often means mo
3%
additional packaging. “It’s an interesting
33
dichotomy about Millennials wanting
convenience... packaging obviously plays
into that,” says Ashley Nickle, staff writer
for The Packer. “But then we hear a lot of
Millennial consumers saying they want
less plastic and that sort of thing. Those
are two competing forces. It will be
interesting to see how that reconciles in
coming years.”

© New Nutrition Business 2018 24 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

Where are the opportunities?

In terms of ‘the size of the prize’ the
biggest opportunities are, ranked by
attractiveness:
1. Snacking and mini-meals (Key
Trend 7)
2. Beverages (Key Trend 8)
3. Centre-of-plate “good carb” (Key
Trend 5)
4. Smuggled vegetables
5. Dairy alternatives
6. Meat alternatives

1. SNACKING AND MINI-MEALS $300 million annual sales of SkinnyPop

Finding ways to help people eat more popcorn.
vegetables in convenient and snackified Success in snacking is not all
ways is the single-biggest area of about novel, highly-processed snacks.
opportunity for all companies, no matter Sometimes, it’s as simple making a
how big or small: tens of vegetable-based natural and unprocessed food more
start-up brands are appearing to do just convenient.
that. Tommies (see Box 14) introduced
That’s thanks to the power of the snack tomatoes in the Netherlands 15
Snackification trend (see Key Trend 7). years ago. Now they also offer snack
People are willing to experiment and try cucumbers and snack sweet peppers.
new snacks as they offer novelty for a G’s Fresh, owner of the Love Beets
relatively small price. brand, takes a difficult-to-prepare and
Because of advances in food messy vegetable and presents it as a
technology, a host of plant-source snack-size, ready-to-eat choice – earning
ingredients – chick peas, kale, broccoli, a premium price and growing retail sales.
cauliflower, beans, beetroot, sprouted
grains, avocadoes, seaweed – can now BOX 14: TOMMIES PREMIUM SNACK VEGETABLES
be used as ingredients in a wide array of
snack types.
On the other hand, because of the
low barriers to entry in many snack
sectors – such as chips, puffs and other
baked or fried snacks sold as healthier
alternatives to traditional potato chips –
there is a proliferation of products made
with beans, chickpeas or vegetables.
And despite investors’ and consultants
love-in with entrepreneurial start-ups,
the reality is that in that most of them
coming to market now are essentially Tommies were the first to introduce Positioning:
offering me-too products with little or no snack tomatoes in the Netherlands • Veggies for travellers
15 years ago and now offer
differentiation beyond brand image. The • Healthy snacks for kids
snack cucumbers and snack sweet
failure rate in snacks – at 60% lower than peppers. The products earn a • Vitamins at work
most other categories – will surely rise significant premium over regular • Sports and snack
and those that survive will more likely be vegetables. vegetables
niche brands than successes to rival the
• Healthy & tasty treats

© New Nutrition Business 2018 25 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

BOX 15: FRAGMENTED CONSUMER MOTIVATIONS

As so often with growth trends in an increasingly fragmented market, plant-based reflects a

number of different consumer motivations, many of which overlap with one another:
1. A growing number of people who, as part of weight wellness, want to manage or
reduce their carbohydrate intake and substitute starches with vegetables as “better
carbs” (at least some of the time).
2. People thinking about increasing their protein intake and including more legumes, nuts
and other plant sources.
3. Consumers looking for some variety in their diet beyond meat and dairy and adding
more plants.
4. People reducing their intake of dairy on health grounds, particularly in relation to
digestive wellness, and reducing the risk of bloating that they associate with animal
milks.
5. People reducing their meat consumption on health grounds.
6. Consumers trying to reduce their sugar consumption, for reasons of weight wellness,
and looking for vegetable snacks and plant-based drinks as a way to do this in place
of confectionery, cookies, etc.

BOX 16: RICHER, OLDER = BUYS MORE VEGETABLES

“Avocados are the official fruit of the Millennial,” proclaims one Generation X, and 59% of Baby Boomers.
internet headline. But are they really? Sales data reveals that the real
Muro believes Millennials are not generally different from previous
avocado-lovers are older consumers – and that Millennials’ actual
generations when it comes to eating produce. He says he has seen
buying habits when it comes to fresh produce defy the stereotypes.
studies about Baby Boomers and Generation X that have shown
Only 35% of Millennials (ages 18–39) had purchased avocados they began eating more produce with age. “As people get older
in the past year, compared to 44% of the 40–49 age group and they realize that produce is a health benefit,” says Steven Muro at
47% of adults aged 50–59, found a November 2017 survey by The Fusion Marketing. ”I think we’re going to see the same thing with
Packer. Plus, when it comes to fruit, more Millennials claimed they Millennials... [as they] have children and families, they realize it’s
bought bananas, apples, oranges, and pineapple than purchased important to feed fresh healthy produce to their families.”
avocados.
The differences may lie partly in the desire for convenience, the
The survey asked 1,000 people if they had purchased more than demand for transparency, and how food companies have to market
50 fresh vegetables and fruits in the past 12 months. Consistently to Millennials. Social media and an online presence are essential.
fewer Millennials had bought specific fresh fruits and vegetables “Millennials share,” says Chris Pruneda at Cece’s Veggie Noodle
than members of older age groups. The finding brings into question Co. “They are big time sharers of information of what they love to
the generally held belief Millennials are eating healthier than older eat, of how they eat, where they eat, when they eat.”
generations.
“We do a ton on Instagram,” says Natasha Lichty of Love Beets.
“Wealthier households tend to buy more primary/unprocessed “We post a lot of content. We do a lot of engagement work. We
ingredients, reducing their purchases of processed foods and starchy work consistently with upwards of 10 bloggers a month where they
carbohydrates like pasta and increasing their purchases of fruit and either share their favorite recipe using our product or promote our
vegetables,” says the USDA report. “Overall, Millennials have an products to their audience.”
increasing appetite for fruits and vegetables as income rises.”
Companies who want to reach Millennials need to understand
If Millennials are not buying fresh produce at grocery stores, are they they are not trapped in tradition. Mobile apps, not printed circulars,
getting it in other ways? are more likely to reach Millennials. Online sharing, both positive
and negative, is a given. And recognizing Millennials are a diverse
The USDA report found Millennials were more likely than older
group and not putting them into one pile is crucial.
generations to have purchased deli-prepared food, carryout food,
delivery food, or fast food within the last seven days. About 62.3%
of Millennials had purchased these foods, compared to 56.4% of

© New Nutrition Business 2018 26 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

2. BEVERAGES value share of the drinking milk market, Cece’s Veggie Co (see Box 17) – but also
The beverages category has always despite retailing at a 100% premium to established companies such as Green
been mostly plant-based – from fruit cow’s milk. Giant and Bird’s Eye.
juice, to tea and coffee. And new Nut- and seed-based beverages Another driver is consumers seeking to
directions are also driven by a preference are evolving and are no-longer just reduce their intake of “bad” carbs (Key
for getting plants in more convenient competing with dairy. With a huge Trend 5) – an established trend among
ways, with 30% percent of Millennials proliferation of launches of single-serve the most health-conscious 25%-30% of
try to eat more produce by drinking packs, and the positioning of products on the population. These people are not
smoothies or fresh squeezed juice, taste, natural hydration and refreshment, eating Paleo or even following a strict low
compared to 22% of Generation X and they are also increasingly in competition carb diet, but they are selectively limiting
20% of Baby Boomers, according to for ‘share of throat’ with juices and their consumption of starchy carbs such
“The Power Of Produce 2017” from the smoothies. as pasta – sales of which leveled off in the
Food Marketing Institute. The health halo of nuts and seeds will US about five years ago, echoing similar
Plants have got the most attention help this segment to continue to grow, trends in other western countries – in
from their successful drive into the only coupled with promoting environmental favour of vegetables.
animal-based beverage category – milk. advantages. Interestingly, most of these As a result, forms of vegetables that
Big drivers of success for almond and nut and seed-based products are ‘highly can be used in place of pasta or rice –
other non-dairy milks so far have been processed’ – in the sense that they such as spiralised courgette (zucchini)
taste and digestive wellness (Key Trend have many more ingredients than fruit and butternut, or riced cauliflower – are
1). As a result, in the US plant milks juices or dairy and are often fortified showing up in mainstream supermarkets.
– led by almond – have taken a 12% with vitamins and minerals. Although Sales are not yet mass, but growing.
we’re told that ‘least-processed’ and few “Using them as a regular substitute for
ingredients is what millennials want, it’s pasta is the most common way, but there
clear they’re willing to turn a blind eye to are so many different things you can do,
that when it comes to refreshment. including eating them in salads or soups
or eating them raw,” Cece Veggie Co’s
3. CENTRE-OF-PLATE GOOD Jennie Shen told New Nutrition Business.
CARB “We promote [the products] as being the
Sold mostly as a commodity, vegetables centrepiece of meals you can create in
need to be washed, peeled, chopped or 30 minutes or less with ten ingredients
cooked, creating a meal problem for the or less – healthy, nutritious and delicious
consumer, not a meal solution. Rarely meals.”
were they available in a convenient Retail shelf space has already
format. expanded for these higher value products
This has started to change over the and sales show every sign of maintaining
last six or seven years. Some companies growth. These new forms of vegetables
have understood what people want and are usually sold chilled and the ever-
are offering vegetables as convenient, greater space that supermarkets are
healthy, good-tasting meals, mini-meals, devoting to chilled foods is supporting
side dishes growth. Many newer convenience stores
and snacks, already have 40%-50% of their shelves
accelerating refrigerated to house ready meals,
sales and sandwiches, smoothies and cold-pressed
fuelling juices, fruit and salads – offering an
demand. opportunity to add more convenient
These chilled vegetable choices and to meet
“Finding a plant protein shake that is high in protein and tastes great can be a challenge,
but For Goodness Shakes Plant Protein delivers just that with 20g of quality protein and companies the needs of younger consumers, who
no added sugar. Enriched with vitamin B12 and D commonly low in vegan diets and include not increasingly shop at local convenience
carrageenan free.”
Smooth Chocolate Flavour only the stores.
Ingredients: Water, Soya Protein Isolate, Fibre (Poly-dextrose), Cocoa Powder (1%), usual start- Some companies are attempting to
Cocoa Mass (.45%), Stabilisers (Locust Bean Gum, Gellan Gum, Modified Starch),
Natural Flavourings, Emulsifier (Sunflower Lecithin) Salt, Sweetener (Sucralose), Vitamins ups – such as resurrect frozen food with innovative
(D, B12, Folic Acid)

© New Nutrition Business 2018 27 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

BOX 17: MOVING VEGETABLES TO CENTRE-OF-PLATE IN PLACE OF STARCHY CARBS

Cece’s Veggie Co. is capitalising on rising interest in “spiralized” vegetables more like fettucine pasta.
vegetables and offering alternatives to grain-based pasta which
And it just made getting more vegetables even more convenient.
it says have “a fraction of the carbs and calories found in typical
Its latest product infuses one of America’s most-loved convenience
on-the-go meals”. It’s harnessing the power of several major trends –
foods – Mac & Cheese – with organic butternut squash, which is
better carbs, convenience, plant-based, even digestive health.
cut into elbow-pasta-style shells and said to deliver “a full serving
The company – based in the start-up hotbed of Austin, Texas – of veggie nutrition in every bowl”. Described as a “game-changer
produces sweet potato, zucchini, butternut squash and beets in for busy families, the product comes in a dairy-based and a vegan
organic veggie spirals that are distributed and sold fresh in about option.
3,000 stores in 40 states, including Target, Kroger, Meijer, Safeway,
Other new entries include:
Sprouts and Whole Foods.
• A ready-to-eat, microwaveable meal of organic zucchini spirals
“It’s really endless what the brand can do,” Jennie Shen, the
paired with organic marinara sauce.
company’s marketing “gourdinator”, told New Nutrition Business.
• Organic riced cauliflower medley with broccoli, carrots and
Cece’s Veggie Co has experimented with seasonal products
green onions, intended as a shortcut to paleo-friendly fried rice.
including golden beets and white sweet
potatoes. “It’s important to do seasonal picks CeCe’s recognizes that it has a lot of consumer education to do
so that we can offer still more ways for people to get the American mainstream not only to appreciate spiralized
to enjoy their vegetables,” Shen said. The veggies but specifically to embrace the brand’s particular positioning
company also brought out in that space. In that regard, Shen believes it’s crucial for
“Veggicine,” which are Cece’s Veggie Co to be able to merchandise its products
thicker in refrigerator cases in raw-produce
and departments, in contrast to brands such
wider as Green Giant that are frozen.
cuts of

BOX 18: VEGETABLES MADE EASY

BY REMOVING THE NEED TO MASH FROM THE WICKED KITCHEN RANGE BY TESCO
CONSUMERS’ LIVES, MASH DIRECT SAVED ITS “PROVES PLANT-BASED MEALS DON’T HAVE
BUSINESS TO BE BLAND OR BORING”

Mash Direct: “Due to Wicked Kitchen: Range

the declining vegetable includes ready meals,
market in the UK, mixed pizzas, sandwiches and
with the poor prices salads made with a
farmers received for their crops, Mash Direct was born out of range of plant-based ingredients.
necessity as a way to keep the family farm afloat. One night,
Premium priced at £4 per ready meal (compared to £2.50-3.70
after discussing with a close friend over a glass of Irish whiskey,
for similar meals).
Martin dreamt up a business of providing traditional Ulster
Champ that was both convenient and healthy.” The products Promoted as “all the zing, punch and crunch to help you get more
sell in supermarkets and convenience stores throughout the UK. mighty veg”.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 28 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

vegetable products. Green Giant BOX 19: SEAWEED HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT
introduced Veggie Spirals — frozen
spirals of beets, carrots, zucchini, and While it’s a staple in Asia, in the US and Europe seaweed is rarely used as a food in its
butternut squash with nothing else own right. Product launches with seaweed have been growing, but it is still mainly used
added — in late 2017. Birds Eye’s offers as a snack, condiment or ingredient in other foods. But small Dutch company Seamore is
Steamfresh Veggie Made Pasta, such as spearheading a movement to normalise seaweed for European consumers, including it in
Zucchini Lentil Pasta and Spinach Lentil familiar foods and bringing it to the mainstream.
Pasta, and also a Veggie Made Mashed Amsterdam-based Seamore is aiming to make seaweed an everyday food with a range
line that combines cauliflower and other of 100% seaweed pasta, as well as convenient wraps and bread made from dough that
veggies as an alternative to traditional contains a high percentage of seaweed.
mashed potatoes. Seamore is distributed in supermarkets like Dutch giant Albert Heijn to niche retailers such as
Italy’s Mamey Senza Glutine which specialises in gluten-free foods, as well as selling online
4. HIDDEN VEGETABLES via its own website and numerous online stores.
Vegetables hidden in other food has The pasta comes to supermarket shelves as a 100g pack of dried seaweed that, after
become a trend in recent years: soaking in water, renders 500g of “pasta”.
• Hidden Garden Foods makes The range of “easy”, simpler, and more convenient products – including the wrap and bread
cookies with hidden vegetables. – is aimed at more mainstream consumers. “We don’t want to make a niche tproduct for an
• Fazer, the Nordic bakery group, elite group of people that are really focused on healthy and sustainable food,” said founder
has found a way to offer bread Willem Sodderland. “We want to make it easy for a
with a 30% vegetable content, lot of other people to also take that step!”
thus both meeting people’s desire “We have now found a way to make even more
for vegetables and einventing their accessible products that still have a high percentage
bread as one of the ‘better carbs’ of seaweed,” he added. “They still deliver the health
(see Key Trend 5). benefit and sustainability impact, but in a way that
• Oh Yes! Foods sells pizzas with makes it easier for people to embrace it and say ‘Let’s
try that!’, and that they find really tasty, accessible and
veggies hidden in the crusts.
convenient.”
• Start-up Peekaboo infuses
indulgent, creamy ice-cream with SMUGGLING VEGETABLES INTO CONSUMERS’ LIVES
undetectable vegetables including
beets, cauliflower and spinach.
• Even a large company like Kraft
has gotten in on the action with
a version of Mac & Cheese
that has veggies hidden in the
noodles, while Dr Oetker recently Start-up Peekaboo contains Farm & Oven is a start-up Not just for start-ups: Dr
vegetables such as spinach offering indulgent bakery Oetker’s new Yes It’s Pizza
introduced a pizza range with
and broccoli – but has the bites that give you “40% of range of vegetable dough
spinach and beet in the dough. your daily veggies in each base pizzas contain 35%
taste and appearance of an
indulgent ice-cream. pack”.  pure beetroot or spinach in
Whether Millennials (or anyone else) Ingredients: Wheat flour, the dough.  It retails in major
Ingredients: Sugar, cream,
expect to get a significant amount of milk, dextrose, zucchini, inulin, beet sugar, soluble corn UK supermarkets Waitrose,
vegetables hidden in food is unknown. gum arabic, locust bean gum, fibre, water, chocolate chips, Asda, Sainsbury’s and online
More likely, having a few veggies in a guar gum, vanilla extract. cocoa powder, sunflower oil, at Ocado.
cookie or pizza crust gives the product zucchini, eggs, baking soda, Ingredients: Wheat flour,
a health halo that makes it seem like a cultured brown rice, vanilla 19% firmed Mozzarella
better choice. extract, sea salt. Probiotic: cheese, 18% Spinach,
Bacillus coagulans, GBI 30 12% Tomato Puree, 8.6%
“Millennial women are the heart
6086. Broccoli, 8.6% Mushroom,
of who buys our product, both for 5.0% Tomato concentrate,
themselves and their children,” says Kay Rapeseed Oil, Baker’s
Allison, co-founder of Farm & Oven Yeast, Sugar, Salt, Garlic,
Inc., which makes cookies with baked-in Basil, Extra-Virgin Olive Oil,
vegetables. modified Starch, Oregano
and Pepper

© New Nutrition Business 2018 29 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

5. DAIRY ALTERNATIVES texture improves, sales will improve. 6. MEAT ALTERNATIVES

Dairy alternatives – not only milk but The plant-based ‘ice cream’ sector is For many consumers who eat plant-
yogurt, desserts, ice cream and cheese – also up, despite also being held back by based, meat substitutes are – they say in
are yet another way that creative NPD taste and texture challenges and long consumer research – the opposite of the
makes it possible for consumers to choose ingredient lists. U.S. sales of plant-based natural, plant-based way they want to
plants over animal-source ingredients. ice cream increased by about 26%, to eat. They are by nature processed foods,
Every single major dairy player is now $166 million (€144 million) in 2017 and often with as many as 15-20 ingredients,
in the area, with Danone owning White were forecast to grow a further 25% and many people see them as ‘ultra-
Wave (Alpro in Europe), General Mills in 2018, according to Nielsen data. processed’ and not the natural, simple-
investing $40 million (€35 million) in Kite Unilever-owned Ben & Jerry, Haagen- ingredient way of eating they are looking
Hill, a non-dairy yoghurt brand, and Dazs and Halo Top now all carry vegan for.
Japan’s Otsuka Pharmaceutical acquiring flavors. And yet, the ‘plants’ claim and the
US-based Daiya Foods, a maker of Most companies say that their vegan claimed environmental benefits allow
plant-based cheeses with $80 million strategy is to create flavors that are some consumers to look past these
(€70 million) in retail sales. Otsuka paid compelling for non-vegan consumers as drawbacks and buy pea and soy-based
$326 million (€284 million) to get into the well. “We want to have flavors that they burgers. Hence, while this category will
plant-based cheese and desserts business. pick just because they are cool,” said grow – supported by the undoubted
Plant-based products currently account on executive. And this will be key to the convenience factor of microwaveable
for a just 2% share of the $8.8 billion future of the sector – sales will be driven veggie burgers – growth will not be as
(€7.6 billion) yoghurt market, but it’s as much by consumers desire to try new much as many investors and suppliers of
a niche growing at 50% a year. It’s a things, because we are all food explorers pea proteins expect.
similar story in many European markets. now (see Introduction) as by concerns The highest profile and most vocal
The driver is in large part NPD teams’ about health, getting more plants or plant-based “disruptors” are not food and
success in improving the products’ taste environmental worries. beverage companies, not small cool start-
and texture – it’s a category in which The growth of dairy substitutes is also ups, but businesses backed by Silicon
most products are still held together with a manifestation of the fragmentation of Valley tech investors, looking for the
gums and stabilisers and taste and texture consumers’ health beliefs and behaviours next billion dollar “unicorn” and their
are a turn-off for people accustomed to (Key Trend 6) and while it wont take over marketing will keep pushing plant-based
dairy yoghurt, from dairy any time in our lifetimes, it meat substitutes forward (see Key Trend
especially higher will become – as plant milks have done – 3). In today’s increasingly fragmented
protein variants a ‘big niche’, maybe one day achieving a market there’s a niche for everything.
like Greek and 12%-15% market share.
full-fat yoghurts.
As taste and

CHART 9: PERCENTAGE OF CONSUMERS CLAIMING TO BE

REDUCING MEAT CONSUMPTION

“Plant-based” is fast becoming one of the most-used

strategies – both to sell new products and to try and
breathe new life into old categories. The owners of
the Becel (Flora) brand of polyunsaturated spreads
– sold by Unilever in 2017 – took over a brand
which was experiencing a 10% annual sales decline
as consumers turned away from processed fats and
lost their fear of saturated fat, switching to butter.
The brand is trying to reverse its sales decline by
positioning itself as ‘plant-based’. Whether that will
weight more with consumers than least-processed and
natural remains to be seen.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 30 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

BOX 20: MAGNUM GOES VEGAN

In September 2018, Unilever-owned Magnum launched two vegan versions of the popular
ice-cream in Sweden and Finland. Plant-based eaters there, estimated at around 6-9% of the
population, are now able to enjoy Magnum Classic and Magnum Almond, based on pea
protein.
Vegan Magnum Classic contains 1.6g of protein per 100g and 28g of sugar, while the
regular Magnum Classic contains 3.6g per 100g and 27g of sugar.
The product has also launched in the UK, where the vegan ice-cream market is thriving and
includes other popular brands such as Ben & Jerry’s and Cornetto.
Magnum Vegan is described as “a luxurious vegan alternative” and promoted as being
“100% pleasure”. In the UK, the product is promoted exclusively on a vegan platform
whereas in Sweden, Magnum also bills it as an option for people sensitive to milk.
Magnum Vegan retails in the UK at a nearly 100% price premium compared with other
Magnums. When compared to other vegan ice-cream sticks on the market, the price premium
is nearly 50%.  Will the price tag put vegan pleasure seekers off? Probably not. Magnum
Vegan gives ethically-concerned consumers an opportunity to indulge in a real classic from
the ice-cream aisle, and that is likely to go a long way.

BOX 21: MILLENNIALS AND PLANT-BASED FOODS

PLANTS: “I believe that I get the

majority of my proteins
from “alternative”
sources like legume,
“After seeing the
documentary What the
Health I decided to
drastically reduce my

WHAT
eggs, vegetables beef intake. I saw all
and fruit. I used to be that beef consumption
vegetarian and even comes with, and I started
now that I do eat meat, I replacing it with other

ARE
enjoy eating a variety of vegetable options, such
foods that don’t include as soya or millet burgers.”
meat”
– Argentinian,

MILLENNIALS
– Croatian, tourist photographer, 25, female
agency director, 30,
female
“I’ll never become

THINKING?
vegan or vegetarian, I
understand and respect
their position, but meat
is too tasty to give up.
For me it’s a question of
balance. I don’t eat meat
every day, but I prefer
meat to a vegetable
substitute.”
– Mexican, cook, 29,
male

© New Nutrition Business 2018 31 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Plant-based

PLANT BASED
CHART 10: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 2, PLANT-BASED

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 11: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 2, PLANT-BASED

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET
CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

SALES

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 32 www.new-nutrition.com

 Key trenD 3

PROTEIN
A NATURAL HEALTH HALO
Creative new product development alongside
multiple consumer motivations to get more protein
are driving this trend.

What consumers NATURAL

CONVENIENCE want the most... PROTEIN
Innovative new
products that Natural sources
make protein of protein like
available in dairy, meat
ways that are MOTIVATIONS TO HAVE eggs or pulses
are preferred
versatile and MORE PROTEIN: by consumers.
convenient for
consumers.
Support sports performance

Support weight wellness

Reduce carbs intake

Build and preserve lean

muscle

an opportunity for what does it mean for

both: companies?
animal protein Added protein
American meat consumption grew 10.7% since should be as
2014. Convenience
natural and
Advocates of low-carb and/or paleo eating are
logical as is king
engaging with meat, fish and eggs as healthy
sources of protein. possible

PLANT protein
Consumers
More people want more plants, and sources of are willing to
plant protein are natural and more convenient
than ever. pay a
Products with added pea protein increased 88% premium
since 2014. price

© New Nutrition Business 2018 33 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

Key Trend 3:
Protein – powered by a natural
health halo
SUMMARY
• Consumers have multiple motivations for choosing protein:
From weight management to sports performance, people don’t all know
exactly why or how protein is good for them but it’s high on their agenda.
• Natural wins: Most consumers don’t know the difference between
different types of protein, and they know nothing about protein quality.
But they do know that they prefer it from natural sources that they can
easily understand, such as dairy, nuts or chicken.
• Convenience and snackification is a big driver of the protein
trend: The biggest successes have been products that deliver protein in
forms that are single-serve, super-convenient and good tasting. Both in
foodservice and grocery, single-serve protein pots, bars and dairy snacks
are a defining product type.
• This trend is not about meat vs dairy vs plant source: There are
opportunities for every type. Awareness of plant protein is growing but
still lags far behind traditional sources.
• ‘Permission to indulge’ is taking protein in a new direction, as
seen by the massive success of products such as Halo Top ice cream.
• Niche future for meat substitutes: Demand for meat alternatives
made from pea or soy will grow, but their ultra-processed nature and
long ingredient lists are the opposite of what most consumers want.

PROTEIN CONNECTS WITH 7 OTHER KEY TRENDS

© New Nutrition Business 2018 34 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

The natural health halo of protein million people. in the last five years).
has not lost its glow. Protein is now Demand is driven by creative new But it’s not about plant-source vs. dairy
a mainstream consumer interest and product development that is making or meat – there’s a growing market for
companies are doing everything they can protein available in ways that are new, both. “Ten years from now, there will be
to capitalise on this persistent trend. convenient and more interesting for higher plant consumption, but beef will
New product concepts are being consumers. As with so many other trends, always be king,” Epic Burger founder
launched, existing ones reinvented and this is driving a fragmentation of markets David Friedman told Bloomberg. Epic
product packaging updated to highlight and consumer beliefs, from carnivore to Burger, whose tagline is “A more mindful
the protein content. Even foodservice omnivore to vegan. burger”, sells both animal-based and
chains selling bagels are marketing People are open to new types of plant-based burgers. “People are always
themselves as a way to get protein. protein, as long as they’re familiar – looking to put more protein into their
Contract manufacturers producing exotic meats such as crocodile and diets. But they want high quality and
for brand-owners report that protein ostrich meat have been tried but have transparency in the food they’re eating.”
is what all of their customers are never taken off, which suggests that The protein trend is here to stay.
interested in. “If you look at the items insects are not going to be big – and as
that consumers say they want more of long as it does not affect taste, texture or
in their diet, protein tops the list,” said convenience.
David Portalatin, a Houston-based food The overlap between the protein
industry adviser for NPD Group, in an trend and convenience (Key Trend 7) is
interview with Bloomberg. crucial for understanding the direction
According to Nielsen consumer that protein-containing products should
research, 55% of US households say high take to be successful. Dairy protein, for
protein is now an important attribute example, scores highly on convenience,
to consider when buying food for their with on-the-go drinks and spoonable
households. Across the country, 6% of yoghurts; nuts are portable, easy to eat
households include someone who lives on and need no preparation. The same is
a high-protein diet. That’s more than 5.4 true for meat snacks (a big growth sector

BOX 22: KRAFT’S P3 PROTEIN SHOW HOW TO SUCCEED WITH PROTEIN THAT’S BOTH NATURAL &
CONVENIENT

Kraft’s Oscar Mayer P3 protein snack shows how to create a success built on the winning
combination of convenience and natural protein. P3, introduced in 2014, is a protein-
packed product line which combines meat, cheese and nut portions in a convenient single-
serve pack.
“Along with being a protein-rich product, P3 fits the growing trend of on-the-go snacking
as consumers search for a simple way to stay fueled throughout
the day, and are starting to snack more often than sitting down
for full meals. We’ve really focused on creating a portfolio that
answers a wide range of consumer needs while still focusing
on serious protein and real foods,” explained Erik Sword,
senior associate brand manager for P3 at the time he was
interviewed by NNB.
Sold in the refrigerated meat aisle, it is a multi-compartment
snack tray with meat, cheese and nuts. Newer variants also
include seeds and nut clusters. Positioned as having no artificial
ingredients and offering 11g-15g of natural protein, the brand
targets younger males with print, TV and online advertising.
The success of P3 has inspired other companies to offer
cheese+nut+fruit composite snacks and the whole area should
grow over the next two-to-three years.
2014 2018

© New Nutrition Business 2018 35 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

What’s driving protein?

Getting more protein has become a eating patterns among their friends and
priority for many consumers, thanks to a acquaintances.
steady stream of media attention fuelled This fitness trend has made words like
by positive science about protein and ‘macronutrients’ and ‘muscle recovery’
health, thanks to diets that are higher familiar even to the average person.
in protein such as low carb, paleo and In addition, for consumers faced
similar eating patterns – and thanks to with a mass of conflicting information
the loyalty to protein shown by well- about food and health, protein is easy
known athletes. to understand. It has never (unlike fat
And because of protein’s association and carbs) been labelled as a “bad”
with maintaining a healthy weight and food. It’s easy to understand and an
body, it connects it to one of people’s accepted part of a healthy diet. And like
most powerful desires – to look good. fibre or calcium, protein has a halo of
Active sports-oriented young people naturalness and health.
and frequent gym-goers are key Because this is what consumers want
influencers in the spread of protein most: a natural source of protein such as
awareness. They are the leading-edge dairy, yoghurt, meat or legumes. More
consumers, using protein to support people are focusing on eggs, protein
their performance, researching quantity shakes, nut butters, yogurt, and milk
and quality, often eating high protein at breakfast; nuts, protein-packed bars,
low fat/low carb diets – and because yogurt, hummus, and cheese sticks for
they’re normal people who go to work or snacks; and nuts, salmon, and tuna in
college every day, they normalise these salads and at mealtimes.

BOX 23: POTS OF CONVENIENT PROTEIN

One of the biggest successes in convenient protein has been Krafts’ P3 protein pack which combines cheese and meat. Spurred by
the success of P3, Kraft is betting on convenient cooked eggs as the “new” breakfast with its Just Crack an Egg range of microwavable
breakfast pots, launched this year.
The four flavours, which include other proteins such as ham and bacon to which consumers add an egg, plays to at least four trends at
work among American consumers these days. These are the rising importance to non-breakfast brands of breakfast as a day part, an
appreciation for dietary protein, the renewed nutritional appreciation of eggs – and intensifying demand for convenience.
The ultra-convenient pot format, so far dominated by hot cereal such as
Quakers porridge pots, is being adopted to help make protein a more
convenient breakfast choice.
For example, the Leon “naturally fast food” chain is offering a wide range
of hot, animal-protein-rich breakfast in pots. All five of its hot breakfast pots
feature animal protein (and of an 18-strong breakfast menu, 11 feature animal
products).
US foodservice chain Protein House, which targets the fitness and health
conscious community and boasts that they are “proud users of organic, grass-
fed bison to help pack on your healthy protein”, offers for breakfast Angus
beef steak and grass-fed bison.
Food-service chain Leon’s protein-rich breakfast pots
Fuel 10K has done a great job of
making protein more convenient
with its high-protein cereals and
porridges in pots and pouches,
based on dairy protein.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 36 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

Added to all this, protein has – if

BOX 24: MULTIPLE MOTIVATIONS AROUND PROTEIN
people are eating 20g or more at a
meal – a ‘feel the benefit’ effect thanks
to its ability to fill you up. Consumers In a world of fragmented consumer motivations, consumers’ impulses towards protein
who swap cold cereal for hot protein are among the most fragmented.
at breakfast will notice that thanks to
protein’s satiating effect, they’re not 1. Reduce carbohydrates. Maintaining a healthy weight by increasing
protein in place of starches.
reaching for a doughnut or a Danish
pastry mid-morning. Protein in its many 2. Support weight wellness. Eating protein throughout the day, in
forms, from meat to cheese to nuts, offers meals and snacks, resonates as a strategy to curb snacking.
fulfilling and satisfying eating. 3. Build and preserve lean muscle. A motivator for sports-oriented
• Meat’s reputation as a source of Millennials.
natural protein is much to thank 4. Support sports performance.
for its steady consumption.
• The exoneration of dairy fat (see 5. Naturally-healthy. People choose less-processed protein sources such
as nuts, nut butters, beans and yoghurt.
Key Trend 9) is making high-
protein dairy products more
appealing to the consumers
looking for a natural protein
option, contributing to the success
of products like skyr and Greek
yoghurt.
• Egg consumption is growing,
particularly among younger
diners, up around a third between BOX 25: MAKING MORE OF EGG PROTEIN
2016 and 2018 among women
aged 16-to-24 according to a Increasing demand for eggs has led to innovation in grab-and-go pots which combine
things like poached eggs with grains, vegetables and/or beans.
OnePoll UK consumer study.
• And if a natural protein is also The familiar and humble egg is becoming a hero ingredient, delivering protein without carbs
convenient, versatile, easy to use, with mainstream appeal.
and tastes good – such as ready-
to-eat beans, cottage cheese, and
thicker yoghurts such as Greek or
skyr – so much the better.

Eggurt, probiotic yogurt drink made from pasteurized HeltÄrligt bars claim to be the first egg-based
egg whites—a good source of protein that is gluten-, protein bars on the Swedish market.
soy-, and dairy-free.

Vital Farms, Pasture-Raised Hard Boiled Eggs, two Bantam Bagels, Egg Bites, scrambled egg-filled
refrigerated eggs for on-the-go eating.  bagel bites in Original, Onion Gruyere, Chipotle, and
Veggie flavors. 

© New Nutrition Business 2018 37 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

Protein as a vehicle for ‘permission to indulge’

If anything, the protein trend has business of dairy giant Fonterra, is market upside down with its rapid
given even the most health-conscious concentrating on turning more of its growth. Its flavours typically contain only
consumers “permission to indulge” milk solids into value-added dairy protein 60 calories but also 6g of protein per
– one of the most powerful strategies for use in everyday foods, using a grass- half-cup serving, while the same serving
that food and beverage companies can fed claim and New Zealand provenance of Haagen-Dazs typically provides
employ. It’s a strategy that works very (Key Trend 10). “What we’re targeting 270 calories and only 4g of protein.
well in the case of protein – which is a is permissible indulgence,” said Kelly Launched in 2013, its revenue is now
versatile ingredient and a powerful health Fleming, category director for active over $350 million (€304 million) per
benefit in one. It can be incorporated nutrition at NZMP, said in a media annum.
in a range of product formats, and in interview. “We’re the first ice cream that people
today’s food and beverage market we can buy eight or nine pints at a time, versus
find anything from chips to ice cream to one for Haagen-Dazs,” Halo Top
confectionery carrying protein claims. founder Justin Woolverton told New
The way that the protein trend has “[Halo Top] is the first-ever Nutrition Business. “This is the first-
changed many product categories means lifestyle ice cream. You can ever lifestyle ice cream. You can eat it
that consumers no longer have to pick legitimately every day without breaking
indulgence over health; they can have
eat it legitimately every your calorie budget or making yourself
both at the same time. day without breaking your feel bad about it.”
Companies large calorie budget or making Meanwhile, Swedish company
and small have picked Barebells managed to make an
up on this marketing
yourself feel bad about it.” impressive $8.1 million (€7 million) in
opportunity; Mars (with their first year of business by selling
the launch of Mars, – Justin Woolverton, Halo Top founder protein-enhanced ice creams, puddings,
Bounty, Yorkie, Milkyway chocolate bars, milkshakes and
and Snickers protein bars) sweets, marketing them as permissible
and Unilever (with Breyers indulgence. For the increasing number
ice cream) are all tapping Protein is one of the factors in the of health-aware consumers trying to find
into protein. success of indulgent ice-cream Halo- the perfectly balanced approach to health
NZMP, the ingredients Top, which has turned the US ice-cream and diet, protein-enhanced indulgence
ticks all the boxes.
BOX 26: NUTRITION SNAPSHOT, HALO TOP STRAWBERRY

Swedish success Njie’s high-protein, no added

sugar formulation gives “permission to indulge” –
something the company recognizes with its “Feed
your cravings” messaging. The ProPud brand,
launched in 2015, resulted in the company’s sales
Source: www. halotop.com jumping from €7 million to €40 million.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 38 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

BOX 27: THE PERFECT PROTEIN DRINK?

After being advised by a dietician to eat more protein – and struggling to

find a protein drink that wasn’t loaded with sugar and artificial ingredients
– Billy Bosch set out to define the perfect protein drink. His “dream protein
drink” had to be “low sugar, high-quality protein source, no artificial
ingredients, and no sugar alcohols,” he said. “It had to be shelf stable and
grab-and-go. Most importantly, it had to taste delicious.”
His creation, Iconic, is made with non- GMO ingredients, grass-fed milk
protein sourced from New Zealand cows that graze on pastures all day,
and only a few grams of sugar for a lightly sweetened taste. Using lactose-
free milk protein helped keep the sugar content low by eliminating that milk
sugar. “We took the traditional chalky protein shake and turned it on its
head,” said Bosch.

BOX 28: MILLENNIALS AND PROTEIN

PROTEIN: “To get protein, I go for

red meat, nuts, eggs and
fish. Fish is the healthiest of
“I like eggs (organic) as I
believe it is a good ethical
source of animal protein. I use

WHAT
these because it has the unflavoured whey for protein
least amount of fats. shakes and smoothies as it
I never replace the protein doesn’t affect the taste or texture
too much. I also like chicken

ARE
from meat, fish or chicken
with alternatives. I do eat and venison as it’s very high in
a lot of nuts, but it is not a protein whilst being lean.
substitute for other food – I would like to consume less

MILLENNIALS
it’s simply another protein animal protein, mainly for ethical
source.” reasons. I tried hemp protein,
– Croatian, engineer, 26, and two types of soy-based

THINKING?
male meat alternative, but the taste
and texture were quite off
putting. I also find meat to
be more satiating than many
“I usually always an vegetarian alternatives.”
animal protein for main
meal. I have been –British, account manager, 31,
“I prefer a small quantity of male
buying sausages with
fish, but occasionally some
20% vegetable content
lamb is enjoyable. Fish is a
and I’m pleased this is
lighter protein with salmon “I think I prefer meat and fish
an available option.”
having beneficial omega to other sources of protein. It
oils. The fish these days are –New Zealander, full- is mainly because of the taste
contaminated from industrial time mother, 37, female and not because I think they are
chemicals like PCB’s in the healthier.”
ocean, otherwise I would “I believe that eggs
(egg whites), dairy – French, osteopath, 26, male
eat it more frequently. In
addition to fish and sardines products and fish are a
I enjoy beans and pulses much healthier protein
including tempeh as a source than meat. I “I try to eat protein everyday,
protein source. I like foods generally don’t believe regardless of the source. I don’t
like hummus and lentils. that meat is a very have any strong opinion about
These foods are good healthy food choice, where the protein comes from. I
for heart health, avoiding although it’s only my do find nuts very easy to snack
promotion of cancers and personal opinion.” and therefore consider them an
chronic diseases.” easy way to get protein.”
– Croatian, tourist
–New Zealander, legal agency director, 30, – Portuguese, architect, 30,
executive, 38, female female male

© New Nutrition Business 2018 39 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

Meat holds its own

If you believe online media and almost doubling, and pork consumption unhealthy.
bloggers, you would think that meat is rising 40%. There’s even a tiny niche of consumers
on most consumers’ blacklists. But meat Even in ultra-health-conscious trumpeting the benefits of a carnivore
consumption is still on the rise in many Sweden, meat consumption remained diet – mostly meat – for health,
key markets. This is an excellent example unchanged from 2001 to 2016, and only particularly digestive health including gut
of consumers claiming to be doing in 2017 was the first ever dip (of 2%) disorders such as Crohn’s disease.
something that does not show in actual recorded. It could be that the promotion Added to that is questioning of
sales figures. of meat alternatives, plus influential whether saturated fat is as bad for our
True, some consumers are increasingly movies such as Netflix documentaries health as we believed. Many consumers
choosing meat alternatives. But most are Cowspiracy and What the Health, are will have read recently that steak and
doing this alongside meat and fish. One starting to have an effect in Sweden – cheese are part of a healthy diet, thanks
third of US consumers agree that animal and we might see a similar effect in other to a widely-reported study presented
protein has positive effects on our health. countries. at the European Society of Cardiology
And according to an NNB survey, the In the face of a strong vegan lobby, conference in Munich, Germany.
proportion of people who are having industry is rising to the challenge and Consumers eating the most dairy and red
red meat, chicken and fish less often (less finding positives about meat. Meat meat saw their chances of early death
than 2-4 times a week, out of a possible producers are countering many of fall by 25% and risk of fatal heart attack
21 meal occasions) is just 13% in the UK, the environmental criticisms made of decrease by 22%. “Our findings on
20% in the US and 27% in Spain. beef and lamb production, such as full-fat dairy and unprocessed red meat
By contrast, the percentage of people demonstrating that the amount of water do challenge conventional thinking,”
who only have a meatless meal once a claimed to be used in raising cattle is McMaster University professor of
week or never is: much lower than often claimed, or that nutrition and epidemiology Andrew
• 51% in the US, 55% in the UK livestock accounts for only 4% of total Mente told fellow researchers.
• 52% in Brazil and 60% in greenhouse gases, according to figures Probably, as in every other aspect of
Australia. from the US Environmental Protection food consumption, faced with a wide
Agency (not the 50% that’s often variety of points of view, consumers will
Even the warning by the United claimed). Transportation, by contrast, make their own minds up (Key Trend
Nations’ World Health Organization accounts for 27% of greenhouse gases. 6), creating an increasingly fragmented
that certain processed red meats, such And there is now data that shows that protein market.
as bacon and sausage, are carcinogenic in fact, pasturelands are very effective at This is already happening as more
appears to have largely been ignored sequestering greenhouse gases. meat producers highlight the virtues of
(perhaps because the public is tiring of Researchers are highlighting the their product – free-range, grass-fed, or
constant and often contradictory health highly-concentrated nutritional density with a particular provenance for example
warnings about their food) (Key Trend 6), of meat – for example, that 3700 kCal of – and meat is being put into more
with bacon sales in the UK up 1.5% by wheat has the same nutritional value as convenient forms such as meat snacks
volume and 2% by value (Key Trend 9). 240 kCal of beef (USDA data). (one of the success stories of the past five
USDA figures show Americans ate And at the same time, advocates of years) and pre-prepared, easy-to-reheat
more meat in 2018 than ever before. low-carb and Paleo eating are pushing ready meals.
Total American meat consumption grew back against the idea that meat is
10.7% between 2014 and 2018 with the TABLE 1: PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MEAT, RETAIL US (KG)
biggest rise coming from pork, up 13.8%,
and beef up 9%, according to the U.S. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Department of Agriculture (USDA). Beef 24.6 24.5 25.2 25.8 26.8
Meanwhile, world meat consumption
Chicken 37.8 40.4 40.73 41.23 41.7
is expected to increase by 14 % between
2017 and 2030, according to an EU Pork 20.8 22.6 22.7 22.7 23.6
report. And the UN FAO sees global Turkey 7.17 7.26 7.53 7.4 7.5
beef consumption rising by 60% over the
next 30 years, sheep meat consumption Source: U.S.D.A. Economic Research Service *forecast

© New Nutrition Business 2018 40 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

Fish made easier

There is strong growth potential for fish types of products. Salmon skin crisps,
as a natural protein source by delivering rockfish jerky and RTE noodles made
it in very convenient forms – quite unlike from fish can now be found in key
the centre-of-plate forms that consumers Western markets, where they are
are accustomed to – coupled with promoted on platforms of protein and
an opportunity to create tremendous sustainability. And there’s plenty of waste
environmental credentials using waste fish available – around 10 million tonnes
catch. of waste per year worldwide, according
Fish-based snacks are already big to the journal Fish and Fisheries.
among Asian consumers, and now the Convenient and innovative fish
West is catching on, with products such products like these could give plant-based
as fish jerky (see One for Neptune case a run for its money – particularly since
study on page 42) and crispy salmon plant protein has to be raised by intensive
skins launched this year. agricultural methods, unlike re-purposed
This is an excellent example of fish waste which has an environmental
reinventing a traditional food in new halo.

BOX 29: SEAFOOD SNACKS LAUNCHED 2013-2018

PROCESSED SEAFOOD SNACKS ARE COMMON IN ASIAN COUNTRIES, OFTEN COMBINING

SEAFOOD WITH OTHER INGREDIENTS
In Japan, Okasan
Shokudo Ginger
& Soy Sauce Fish
Tempura Snack
Stick comes in a
70g pack to be
consumed on-
the-go. It contains Chinese You Ren
Kunna Crispy Seafood lanternbellies, “Zan You Ren Er”
Tomyum is available in cutlassfish and comes in a 72g pack
Thailand and China. It flying fish. and offers a mix of
claims to be “high in peanuts with “small
Viva Almond Strips crispy fish”.
calcium” and ingredients and Fish in China is
include crispy fish, squid, made with almonds
crispy crab and crispy and small dried fish.
prawn.

CHART 12: SEAFOOD SNACKS LAUNCHED IN ASIA 2013–YTD 2018

© New Nutrition Business 2018 41 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

BOX 30: OOMI OFFERS BOX 31: FISH PROTEIN HAS POTENTIAL TO BEAT PLANT-
INNOVATIVE FISH-BASED BASED ON “LESS PROCESSED”, WASTE PRODUCTION AND
NOODLES, AND HIGHLIGHTS ENVIRONMENTAL CREDENTIALS
SUSTAINABILITY
Oomi launched the world’s first fish protein-based Epic salmon bites Unisoy vegan jerky
noodles in the UK in 2016. The noodles are
promoted as sustainable, low in carbs, high in
protein and gluten-free. They’re premium-priced at
£10.87 per kg (compared with £4.17 for regular egg
noodles) and can be found in major supermarkets
across the UK.

VS
The MSC certified
label is clearly
visible on the front
of the pack

Wild-caught salmon, coconut oil, maple Textured Vegetable Protein (Non-GMO

sugar, sea salt, dill, onion powder, garlic Isolated Soy Protein, Non-GMO Defatted
powder. Soy Flour, Corn Starch, Wheat Protein),
Cane Sugar, Sorbitol, Soy Sauce (Water,
Non-GMO Soybeans, Salt, Wheat, Sugar,
Alcohol), Maltose, Non-GMO Canola Oil,
Maltodextrin, Yeast Extract, Black Pepper,
Salt, Natural Flavor, White Pepper, Citric
Acid.

CASE STUDY: MAKING FISH PROTEIN MORE CONVENIENT

Entrepreneur Nick Mendoza had the idea of providing a new market for yellowtail rockfish that boats were bringing in as waste by-
catch, or just throwing back into the Pacific. “We can get a great price and prevent these fish from being used as waste or fertilizer or
‘bycatch,’ which is when fish get dumped back into the sea dead,” he explained. “Dealing with bycatch is a big global problem.”
His brainchild, One For Neptune fish jerky, comes in 2.2oz (62g)
pouches and retails for a suggested $8.99 (€7.89) a pack, in
three flavours:
• Original, described as a “Norse smoke” flavour
• Fiery Cajun
• Honey Lemon Ginger
It provides 20g of protein per serving, which Mendoza said is
about 1.5 times the protein level in many beef jerkies; contains
omega-3s; and is a rich source of selenium, a heart-healthy
mineral.
For consumers who may conjure up visions of stiff dried fish when
they think of fish jerky, the appealing texture and taste of One For
Neptune are key. “I love seafood and everything fish but I would
say that [it tastes] like high-quality beef jerky,” Mendoza said.
“Others say it doesn’t taste like beef but they like the taste, and
some say that it does taste like fish. Anyway, the texture is similar to a lot of up-market beef and turkey jerkies. It’s relatively tender, and
people think of fish jerky as being rock hard.”
Mendoza worked hard on getting the taste right. “I finally took something out of the dehydrator – having tested every type of soy sauce
and liquid aminos – that really tasted good, and I gave it to a friend of mine, who said, ‘That’s phenomenal!’” Mendoza said. “’Is it beef,
or what?’ I was elated that I’d gotten to the point that it tasted delicious and it passed off as beef.”

© New Nutrition Business 2018 42 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

Plant protein
More and more people want more plants per week also have fed into the support by sustainability and environmental
in their diet (Key Trend 2) – as well as of more plant-based protein choices. concerns, and a growing number of
more protein – and they favour proteins Many people agree with discussions on alternative protein sources, such as pea
that are easy to understand and are social media that claim plant protein is protein, claim to offer protein with a
more natural. This has been a driver superior to animal protein. The fact that better sustainability.
for growth of chickpeas, nuts and other plant proteins lack the complete amino- Use of vegetable protein is increasing
plant sources of protein in products such acid profile of (say) dairy protein simply in product formulation, in nutrition bars
as hummus, legume-based pasta, chips doesn’t break through the wealth of very and smoothies for example.
and more. positive online messaging about plant The number of products with added
Campaigns such as Meatless Monday proteins. pea protein have increased by more than
that promote avoiding meat one day Some are lured to plant proteins 128% globally since 2014.

BOX 32: MEAT SUBSTITUTES FAIL THE TEST OF NATURALNESS AND “LEAST-PROCESSED”

BUBBA GRASS-FED BURGER IMPOSSIBLE BURGER BEYOND BURGER PLANT-

BASED BURGER

VS
USDA grass-fed beef Water, Textured Wheat Protein, Water, Pea Protein Isolate, Expeller-Pressed
Coconut Oil, Potato Protein, Canola Oil, Refined Coconut Oil, Contains
Natural Flavors, 2% or less of: 2% or less of the following: Cellulose
Leghemoglobin (Soy), Yeast Extract, from Bamboo, Methylcellulose, Potato
Salt, Konjac Gum, Xanthan Gum, Starch, Natural Flavor, Maltodextrin, Yeast
Soy Protein Isolate, Vitamin E, Extract, Salt, Sunflower Oil, Vegetable
Vitamin C, Thiamin (Vitamin B1), Glycerin, Dried Yeast, Gum Arabic, Citrus
Zinc, Niacin, Vitamin B6, Riboflavin Extract (to protect quality), Ascorbic Acid
(Vitamin B2), Vitamin B12 (to maintain color), Beet Juice Extract (for
color), Acetic Acid, Succinic Acid, Modified
Food Starch, Annatto (for color).

© New Nutrition Business 2018 43 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

However, consumer research by

Nielsen underscores that plant protein
has some way to go. Although the
popularity of plant-based proteins is
certainly growing, Nielsen data shows
that consumers are still choosing
traditional sources of protein such as
meat, eggs and dairy as their primary
source with, as Chart 13 shows, only
19% of Americans consider plant protein
as a primary protein source. This finding
is echoed by plant protein’s lowly status
on social media – a vital channel for
developing consumers’ consciousness of
an ingredient, its benefits and uses.
Plant protein gets just 392,000
mentions in a 12-month period,
compared to:
• Beef 7 million
• Lamb 2.5 million

Specific plant proteins rate even

worse in consumer attention, with pea
Findus, Sweden’s market leader in frozen foods, Protein is good for weight loss and muscle building,
protein, for example, getting just 70,000 launched in October 2018 a range of pea-protein- according to this article from UK supermarket
based meat alternatives under the brand name Waitrose, which advocates including more plant-
mentions. Pease. The range is promoted as having a uniquely based proteins to avoid an over-reliance on meat
When talking about alternative high protein content of 27% to 33%. and dairy.
protein, however, it’s important to
distinguish between natural plant
proteins such as nuts and legumes, for
which the future is very bright, and
manufactured meat substitutes.
Meat substitutes are a niche that CHART 13: MEAT, EGGS AND DAIRY ARE AMERICAN
will get intense attention over the next CONSUMERS’ PRIMARY SOURCES OF PROTEIN
five years. A number of high-profile
and vocal businesses backed by Silicon Top five protein sources via consumer survey
Valley tech investors, looking for the next
billion dollar “unicorn” believe they can
transform the meat substitutes sector.
And it’s important to note that the meat
substitutes sector is being driven by
investor push rather than consumer pull.
The evidence is that people want more
plants, not that they want more meat
alternatives.
Hence, despite a huge PR effort and
the involvement of multiple companies,
sales growth of meat alternatives is good
but not as big as you’d expect, given the
hype.
In the US in 2018, retail sales were
$558 million (€491 million) and growth

© New Nutrition Business 2018 44 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

was 17%. This compares to $6 billion In today’s increasingly fragmented

(€5.3 billion) of sales for meat and 2% market there’s a niche for everything and
growth. alternative proteins will undoubtedly
While it will doubtless see some make a niche for themselves - but it will
interesting developments in the next be a smaller niche than its backers are
few years, plant-based meat is unlikely hoping for.
to be as big as investors are hoping for.
Consumers’ desire for natural foods will
win in many cases.
Meat substitutes face issues around
consumer acceptance when you compare
their ingredients and the nutritional value
with a meat burger (more carbs, sodium,
less fat but that’s not such a big issue any
more). They fail the test of naturalness.
An extruded, highly processed industrial
product with up to 25 ingredients, they’re
the opposite of what consumers say
they want – natural foods with as few
ingredients as possible.
Most people don’t want meat
substitutes, they want healthy, plant-based
choices and they have proved that they
are open to a wide array of possibilities.
The meat substitutes will be competing
with all of these, not only with meat.

The Epic burger chain menu illustrates how burger bars will be in the future – selling meat-based and plant-
based burgers together.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 45 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

INGREDIENT CALL-OUT: COLLAGEN

Collagen is an animal-derived ingredient that’s bucking the trend toward plant-based innovation. The popularity of the paleo diet and bone
broth have put collagen in the spotlight, and suppliers have seen rising demand as collagen-derived ingredients have gained recognition for
their benefits for beauty and skin health, as well as sports nutrition and anti-aging.
Collagen – derived from connective tissues like cartilage – is turning up in an increasing number of
foods, drinks and supplements for its potential in maintaining healthy joints, bones and skin. Globally,
there were twice as many new collagen-containing food and drink products launched in 2018 as
there were five years earlier, according to Mintel data.
Industry executives predict a rise in on-the-go formats, such as powders, collagen bars, and ready-
to-drink beverages, to cater to younger consumers with busy lifestyles. One analyst named collagen “2018’s
hottest ingredient” following the Natural Products Expo West show in March, where companies showcasing
the ingredient included Bulletproof with its collagen protein bars, Vital Proteins’ matcha collagen, bone broth
grass-fed collagen protein teas from Reserveage, and bone broth chocolate collagen powder from Ancient
Nutrition.
Ancient Nutrition is marketing its bone broth protein as a smoothie staple, as a stand-in for collagen joint-
health aids, in nutrition bars and more, and is already posting revenues well into an annual rate of the tens
of millions of dollars. In 2018 it obtained $103 million (€91 million) in backing from investors that included
industry luminaries such as organic-yogurt pioneer Gary Hirshberg, Vita Coco CEO Michael Kirban, and
Annie’s Homegrown ex-CEO John Foraker.
Ancient Nutrition’s lineup includes Bone Broth Protein, Multi-Collagen Protein, Essential Oils and Keto
products that are aimed at the rising trends toward paleo diets, collagen supplements and those made
from grass-fed animals. Bone Broth Protein, for example, is available in eight flavours, in both sweet (such
as chocolate, french vanilla, banana creme), and savoury functional (turmeric, greens) varieties. About 20
servings retail for around $38.00 (€33.00) online and around $45.00 (€39.00) in a retail store.
The rise of the paleo diet, a grain-free, high-fat, high-protein eating pattern, has helped drive collagen.
Collagen-rich bone broth in particular has been endorsed by paleo devotees, but it appeals to mainstream
consumers too. Collagen also works for those following a ketogenic diet, which is moderate in protein,
but low in carbohydrates and high in fat, and also fits with low FODMAP diets, which avoid certain
carbohydrates.
Know Brainer recently introduced – following input from Nestlé - two collagen-boosted versions to its range
of ketogenic coffee creamers. “With added collagen I’m packed with protein and amino acids too!” reads
messaging for the creamers, which also offer organic grass-fed butter, milk, cream and MCTs.
In March 2018, collagen suppliers received a major boost in the sports nutrition sector when the International
Olympic Committee (IOC) recognised collagen for the first time as one of the supplements that athletes may
use for injury prevention and recovery.
“I think from this year on will
be a very exciting time for
collagen in sports nutrition,”
said Suzane Leser, director
nutrition communication at
collagen supplier Gelita.
“Sports nutrition needs to
differentiate protein going
forward…Muscles don’t
exist on their own. They
are connected to bones and Cali’flour ‘s Collagen keto-friendly wrap
combines cauliflower, collagen, egg, chia
tendons by collagen.” flour and a pinch of salt with a precise
ratio of collagen to cauliflower in order to
achieve not merely a gluten-free product,
but one with benefits. It’s said to “…provide
a substantial punch of protein from the
collagen, an impressive list of nutrients from the
cauliflower and a healthy dose of the right fats
from the egg”.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 46 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

What does the protein trend mean for companies?

1. Added protein should be
as natural and logical as
possible. The main thing to
consider before putting a “high
protein” claim on a product
is: Will this make sense for the
consumer? What consumers want
most when it comes to protein is a
natural source which fits well with
the product category.

2. Convenience is king. It does

not matter how tasty, healthy or
high in protein your product is; if
it is not convenient for the busy
consumer, it is not likely to do well
in today’s market.

3. Consumers are willing to

pay a premium price. Putting
a “high protein” claim on your
product gives companies a chance CHART 14: PRICE COMPARISON, NIJE PROPUD (SEK)
to charge a premium price. With
protein resonating with one of
the key desires consumers have
today – to look good – consumers
are likely to be willing to pay that
little bit extra for a product. This
is exemplified by Mars, whose
protein Mars bars in the UK sell
at a 271% premium compared to
the regular version. In Sweden,
a chocolate pudding with added
protein costs as much as 89%
more than a regular chocolate
pudding.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 47 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Protein

PROTEIN
CHART 15: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 3, PROTEIN

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 16: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 3, PROTEIN

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET

CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

SALES

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 48 www.new-nutrition.com

© New Nutrition Business 2018 49 www.new-nutrition.com
 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

Key Trend 4:
Sugar – reinventing sweetness

SUMMARY
• Complex consumer behaviour: Most consumers say they don’t want
artificial sweeteners – yet in the past four years, some products with
aspartame have become huge successes.
• Weight wellness always wins: As is almost always the case in
consumer decision-making, weight and looking good are top-of-mind
for consumers, accounting for more than 50% of the social media
conversation about sugar.
• The “white carb”: In the realm of “good” and “bad” carbs, sugar has
become the worst carb, demonised even more than “beige” carbs such as
bread and pasta.
• Permission to indulge wins every time: Because people want to
believe that if it’s natural it’s OK, sweeteners like honey, dates and even
fructose are becoming the preferred source of sweetness for many health-
conscious consumers. Sales are increasing and they appear in more and
more products – even from giants like Kellogg.
• Sugar reduction wins if taste wins too: Companies that have
lowered sugar content but made sure that taste is not compromised are
seeing big jumps in sales.

SUGAR CONNECTS WITH 4 OTHER KEY TRENDS

© New Nutrition Business 2018 50 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

Food and beverage companies are Added to this, public health

wrestling with the reality that consumers communicators are piling on the pressure
everywhere say they want to eat less for companies by focusing strongly on
sugar. sugar. Governments see an easy way
Whether it’s Europe or the US, two to “do the right thing” (and win media
thirds of people claim they’re trying headlines) by introducing sugar taxes and
to lower their sugar intake. Sugar more demanding labelling requirements.
now occupies the place of the dietary But there isn’t yet evidence that sugar
demon that fat occupied 20 years ago. taxes or labels make much lasting
Companies are trying to figure out how difference to people’s sugar consumption.
they can reduce the amount of sugar in Changing perceptions of sugar,
their products, introduce “better” sugars, coupled with companies’ development
and still keep them tasting good and keep efforts, could lead to shifts and
customers loyal. redefinitions of categories. For example,
Consumers’ behaviour around sugar Nestlé’s development of a patented,
reduction is complex: all-natural, low-sugar version of its
• Swedes, for example, tell confectionery brand Wowsomes could,
researchers they don’t want if successful, make confectionery a more
artificial sweeteners – yet one of permissible indulgence.
the biggest successes of the past This is the chaotic world in which
few years in Sweden has been Njie new product developers and marketers
– sweetened with acesulfame K now live, presenting both challenges and
• UK consumers have dramatically opportunities – and it’s likely to stay like
cut their consumption of fruit this for some time.
yoghurts because of sugar content There are four strategies companies
– sales are down 10% per annum, can follow. But first, let’s look at some of
yet sales of luxury ice cream, the regulatory challenges companies will
which can be as much as 40% be faced with over the next few years.
sugar, have grown by 10%

BOX 33: TWO TOTALLY DIFFERENT SUGAR STRATEGIES – BOTH HUGELY SUCCESSFUL

KEEPING IT NATURAL UNASHAMEDLY ARTIFICIAL

Premium drinks mixer brand
Fever-Tree spent two years
developing its “Refreshingly
Light” range. Sweetened with
fructose, the range contains
4-5g of sugar per 100ml –
below the threshold of the
UK’s sugar levy.
Fructose is the added free
sugar that we should all avoid according to WHO. If consumers truly care, the sales must
be struggling? The opposite. Sales of the light tonic account for more than 30% of the
Artificially-sweetened with acesulfame K
brand’s retail sales.
and aspartame, Njie is one of the biggest
Fever-Tree has grown its sales more than any other FMCG brand (excluding alcohol) over successes in Sweden (where people tell
the last year. It added a massive £42m (121.5%) to its value, dwarfing the growth of giants consumer researchers they don’t want
such as Coca-Cola (up £38m). artificial sweeteners).
Not everyone sees sweeteners as the answer to reduction of added sugars. Some Njie’s slogan is “Feed your cravings” – and
would rather stick to “natural” sugar grown in the fields than consume artificial ingredients its low-calorie products give consumers
synthesised in a lab. permission to do just that.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 51 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

Sugar taxes – something to worry about?

There are four clear lessons from the Sales of sweetened drinks in Berkeley player in Norwegian chocolate, said in an
sugar taxes that have been tried so far: fell by 9.6% and, while there’s no direct interview that the Norwegian chocolate
1. Sugar taxes initially lead to a proof that consumers bought more market had remained stable historically
reduced consumption of sugary water instead, bottled water sales in and that it wasn’t planning on changing
drinks consumption – but the Berkeley increased by 15.6%. And sales its long-term new product development
decline reaches a plateau fairly of sweetened drinks in surrounding areas strategy. Swedish confectioner Cloetta,
soon as consumers appear to get with no tax rose by 6.9%. the third biggest player in Norway, shared
used to the new prices Sugar taxes are fairly new to most that opinion and isn’t planning to change
2. Consumers are forgiving of sugar countries, but in others have been in its strategy as it expected that sales might
in “honestly indulgent” products existence for some years. In Norway, decline at first but would recover.
3. People do not forgive you if the chocolate and sugar products Although studies report that the 2014
reformulation changes the taste of tax was introduced in 1922 and the tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in
a product they love government upped the rate by 83% in Chile has led to a decrease in the volume
4. It is still too early to say how January 2017. However, industry wasn’t of sugary soft drink purchases of almost
much of a public health benefit too worried. Orkla, the second biggest 22% over the four years, they do not
there is. And the claims that are
made by many public health CHART 17: CHANGES IN SOFT DRINK CONSUMPTION IN FRANCE
advocates for the benefits of sugar
taxes can’t yet be substantiated
Volume growths of Carbonated Soft Drinks before and after Sugar Tax
Volume growths of Carbonated Soft Drinks before and after Sugar Tax
and in fact, evidence from some
5
markets suggests those claims may
turn out not to be true. 4 +4.1
4.1%

3
The highest-profile example of a sugar
tax is in Mexico, which implemented 2
a tax in 2014 on non-dairy and non-
1
alcoholic drinks with added sugar. This
resulted in a 12% decrease in sales on 0
soft drinks and a 4% increase in sales of Year before sugar tax First year of sugar tax Second year of sugar tax
non-sugar based drinks (mostly bottled -1 -1%
water) in the first year. However, the drop
-2
in sales of sweetened drinks plateaued –
there were no further declines. The effect -3

of the tax was short-term and relatively

-4
limited. -4.3%
It’s a similar case in France, which -5 Source: GlobalData (https://www.verdict.co.uk/sugar-taxes-changed-countries-around-world/ )
introduced sugar taxes in 2012, charging
soft drinks manufacturers the equivalent UK TOWN GOES SUGAR-FREE
of an additional 6p per litre for any Inspired by their local hospital – the first in the UK to
beverage containing added sugar or ban sugary foods and drinks from its cafe – residents of
artificial sweeteners. Sales of carbonated Tameside in the UK city of Manchester went sugar free
drinks fell, for the first time in eight for 70 days, to mark the 70th anniversary of the UK’s
national health system. The UK’s Guardian newspaper
years, by 4% (see Chart 17). But just like
reported that the results from more than 100 hospital
Mexico, shoppers got used to the new
professionals and the public revealed weight losses up to
higher prices and the impact reduced. an average of 10kg and testimonials of improved health.
If they can, consumers find a way to
At the hospital, the only drinks available for staff and
get around sugar taxes. For example,
visitors at the canteen and vending machines are water,
Berkeley, California introduced a tax on milk, sugar-free drinks and tea and coffee. Sugary
sugar-sweetened drinks in early 2015. desserts have been taken off the menu completely.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 52 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

take into account that the government BOX 34: SUGAR TAXES ROUND THE WORLD
implemented another strategy in 2016:
nutritional labelling with black stop signs Country Categories of sugar tax Consequences
on the packaging of products that exceed
UK (April 2018) Total sugar content over 5g per This means that a can of Coke which used
5 grams of sugar per 100g. Simple and 100ml: manufacturers pay £0.18 per to cost £0.70 for example, has increased by
prominent labelling probably matters as litre. £0.08, up more than 10%. Estimates by the
much as, or more than, a tax. Treasury based on market data suggest 50%
Total sugar content of more than 8g
From the point of view of industry, it of manufacturers have reduced the sugar
per 100ml: manufacturers pay £0.24
may be that sugar taxes are nothing to per litre.
content of their drinks.
fear and that all that will matter is:
Don’t pay anything if the drink
1. Whether and how industry can
contains at least 75% milk, is
reformulate products that still
100% fruit juice or is an alcohol-
taste good and people still want replacement.
to buy
Mexico (2014) $1 peso excise tax, (approximately Mexico saw also a 12% decrease in sales
2. Whether individuals take 10%), to non-dairy and non-alcoholic after the sugar tax on soft drinks (a short-term
responsibility for consuming less drinks with added sugar. drop – there was no further decline) and a 4%
sugar increase in sales of non-sugar based drinks
(mostly bottled water).
While it’s natural for executives to California, USA At the rate of 10% it adds $0.12 to a Sales of sugary drinks in Berkeley fell by 9.6%,
fear the impact of sugar taxes on their (2015) 12 ounce can of soda priced at $1, while sales in surrounding areas with no tax
businesses, the evidence is that they need or $0.68 to a two litre bottle costing rose by 6.9%.
just over $2 before the tax.
not. The negative impact appears to be
short-lived, and looks like it’s a more France (2013) Under a soda tax introduced in Carbonated drinks dipped for the first time in
2013, all carbonated drinks with eight years – sales fell by about 4% in the first
of a problem for beverages than other
added sugar were taxed at €7.50 year but the impact reduced as shoppers got
categories. Taken together with the fact
a hectolitre (100,000ml). In 2017 used to the new higher prices.
that most companies are already well on the tax was increased, and now a
the way to reducing sugar and/or using sliding scale tax kicks in for drinks that
‘better sugars’, there seems to be no need contain 1g of sugar per 100ml, rising
to lie awake at night worrying about to the point that drinks with more than
sugar taxes. 11g of sugar per 100ml will be taxed
at €20.00 a hectolitre.
NO ADDED SUGAR MAY Norway (1922, Levy on sugar and chocolate products Biggest players in chocolate decided not to
BECOME A BASIC REQUIREMENT 2017) of NOK 36.92 ($4.96) per kg. change their strategy, expecting consumers to
keep buying the products despite the tax.
Chile (2014) For beverages with an added sugar Sugary beverage consumption declined 22%
concentration of 6.25 grams per in the last four years.
100ml or more, the existing tax was
increased from 13% to 18%, while
for those below this threshold, the tax
was decreased from 13% to 10%,
producing an 8% tax difference.
Spain (May Beverages with 5-8 grams of sugar According to a study from University of
2017) for every 100ml will rise by €0.08 Barcelona, consumption declined 22% in
per liter. 2018.

Beverages with more than 8 grams of

sugar per 100ml will rise by €0.12
Portugal Beverages with less than 80 grams of A reduction of 5,500 tonnes of sugar
(February sugar per litre pay a €0.027 fee per consumed in 2017 compared to the previous
2017) 33 cl can. year. Too early to say what the consequences
will be in the next few years, but based
Beverages with more than 80 grams
on other countries, the decline in sugar
of sugar per litre pay €0.055 per 33
consumption might plateau as well eventually.
cl can.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 53 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

Sugar labelling is confusing

Public health advocates believe they can manufacturers will have to comply by an uncomfortable truth – that nutrition
prompt people to take responsibility 2020, and smaller manufacturers by labelling is of limited value for people to
for their sugar consumption with 2021, according to the FDA’s proposal. help them make healthier choices as well
more detailed labelling about sugar on But is this leading to healthier as for marketers of healthier foods.
food and beverage packaging. But the decisions? In fact the evidence is that people,
approaches being taken to sugar labelling A study in 2014 looked at the faced with difficult labelling and
are potentially confusing for consumers – relationship between time viewing information in the media and online, are
for example, while the WHO talks about nutrition information and nutrient doing their own research and making
limiting “free” sugars, other guidance quality of foods chosen. Results showed their own minds up about whether and/
documents and public discussion focus that more time spent viewing nutrition or how they’re going to avoid sugar
on “added” sugar. And to cause even information did not lead to more – hence the rise of dates and honey
more confusion, globally most food nutritious food choices. (they’re “natural” so they must be ok) as
labelling states “total” sugars. The evidence of studies points us to acceptable sweeteners.
In most countries, sugar labelling gives
consumers three places to find out more
about the sugar content in products: BOX 35: SILICON VALLEY WANTS YOU TO FEEL THE BENEFIT
1. In the ingredients list.
2. On the nutritional information The giants of Silicon Valley – where a low-carb, high-fat diet is uber trendy – are said to
panel, which usually mentions the be working on devices for non-invasive glucose monitoring that would allow consumers to
fairly immediately “feel the benefit” – or see the harm - of what they eat.
total amount of sugar in a product
per 100 grams or per serving. Fitbit has invested $6 million in Sano, which is developing a mobile app that “provides easy
3. Typically on the front-of-pack: a access to your current glucose levels and historical trends “so that you can “understand
Reference Intake Label, a traffic- the immediate impact of dietary choices on your personal metabolism, and discover which
foods and drinks have the best results for you”. Apple is reported to be working on a
light label, or a combination
device that connects to the Apple Watch.
of both. The traffic-light label
gives consumers information at a Simple and immediate, the effect of such devices on consumers’ decision-making around
what they eat is likely to be far greater than complex and confusing sugar labelling.
glance.

All three places provide information

on total sugars in a product, meaning all BOX 36: SUGAR LABELLING IS CONFUSING
sugars regardless of the source. Regulatory approaches to sugar labelling run the risk of adding consumer confusion, as this
The push to more sugar labelling risks table from the US shows.
being counter-productive by confusing
consumers. For example, in the US,
the FDA proposed in 2015 that sugar
labelling should include “added sugars”
as a percentage of the recommended
daily calorie intake.
The International Food Information
Council (IFIC) conducted a survey to
find out how consumers interpret added
sugar labels. The majority of the 1,088
respondents were confused by the new
labelling and thought that the products
with labels listing “added sugars”
contained more sugar than they actually
did. Consumers said they would be less
likely to buy the product.
Despite this confusion, large

© New Nutrition Business 2018 54 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

BOX 37: MILLENNIALS AND SUGAR

SUGAR:
CHART 18: MOST COMMON HEALTH
CONCERNS ON SOCIAL MEDIA
AROUND SUGAR CONSUMPTION

WHAT
ARE WHAT 
ARE 
MILLENNIALS
MILLENNIALS
THINKING?
THINKING?
TOTAL 779.000 MENTIONS
ALL SOURCES (Blogs, News, Forums, Twitter, Instagram)
Data Range: 06/25/18 to 08/08/18

“I don’t drink a lot of soft drinks “In recent years I have started to pay “I try to not eat a lot of sugar on a
because they contain too much attention to my sugar consumption daily basis, but with our culture it’s a
sugar. I do drink fruit juices, and I because I know that too much of it is bit hard to avoid it. We have a lot of
don’t pay attention to the sugar bad for my health, especially when it sweets that contain so much sugar,
content in especially fresh fruit comes to putting on weight. I almost but it’s rude and hard to say no when
juices.” stopped drinking soda and eat less you get it offered.”
chocolate and other sweets.”
French, construction project Iraqi, teacher, 24 (female)
manager, 24 (male) Norwegian, manager, 31 (female)

“I pay attention to my sugar “I try to pay attention to how much “I pay attention to how much sugar I
intake because I want to keep up sugar there is in products.  I don’t want consume for a variety of reasons. It’s
with being healthy and avoid the to gain weight or increase my chances bad for my teeth and for my
risk of getting diseases that are of developing diabetes. So I don’t add waistline. But also because it’s
connected to high sugar intake, sugar to my coffee or tea and use very always going around how addicted
like diabetes and cancer.” little sugar when I bake, but I do tend we all are to it apparently.”
to eat sweets. So I guess I try to
Swedish, insurance investigator, compensate in other areas.” American, curator, 28 (female)
32 (female)
Sri Lankan, nurse, 28 (female)

“The amount of carbs in a lot of “I quit sugar in October 2017 and “In Cuba there is not much added
products is high, and I have started the ketogenic diet. I read many sugar. I now live in Europe but I still
periods where I don’t do a lot of articles about sugar and its dangers. don’t pay much attention to sugar
sports, so I’d rather not eat too Now I only have sugar during the levels because I’m not used to it.”
much and keep my energy intake holidays and sometimes a little ice
in balance. Basically, I don’t want cream during summers.” Cuban, carer, 30 (male)
to get fat!”
Greek, interior designer, 36 (male)
Dutch, consultant, 27 (male)

“Unfortunately I don’t pay “I pay especially attention to “I don’t think I consume too much
that much attention to sugar. I added sugar levels because it’s sugar, so I don’t keep track. I buy
know I should because it has a big not good for your teeth, it’s not soft drinks every now and then for
influence on my health, like good for your weight, and it has quick energy and I do sometimes
causing diabetes, but I just like no added value than providing look at labels then. If the sugar
sweets too much!” energy.” content is too high, I don’t go for it.”
German, social worker, 28 Croatian, digital content Czech Republic, medical
(female) producer, 30 (female) researcher, 29 (male)

55I want I want

CONSUMERS
© New Nutrition Business 2018 www.new-nutrition.com
something quick
indulgent energy
 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

Strategies for industry to handle the demonization of

sugar
There are four strategies companies can want artificial sweeteners, that isn’t true
follow: for everyone – and that’s proven true
for Njie as sales went from €7.6 million
1. REDUCE THE SUGAR ($8.8 million) in 2015 to €24.6 million
This seems like the obvious strategy, ($28.4 million) in 2016. Its target market
but it doesn’t always translate into more is young, fitness-oriented consumers for Coca-Cola decided not to change
its classic recipe because it believed
sales. If consumers don’t like the taste or whom the benefit of protein (Key Trend that its consumers love the taste of
texture of the new lower-sugar formula, 3) and lower calories outweighs the the product and would not want a
change – a decision that looks wise.
they will turn away and sales will decline, artificial sweeteners. Some brands that did reduce sugar
took a hit to their sales, for example,
as Suntory found with its Lucozade Media attention to health effects of Suntory-owned Lucozade Energy.
brand. artificial sweeteners – such as recent It reduced its sugar content by 65%
and sales fell by around £67 million
Most companies, after 30 years of research that suggests a negative effect (-18.6%) as consumers rejected
the taste of the new lower-sugar
considering various high-intensity on the gut microbiome – will serve to formula.
sweeteners from aspartame to sucralose, push people even further towards making
have given up because of problems with natural choices.
taste, cost and consumer perception.
BOX 38: NEW WAVE OF SUGAR SCIENCE?
Companies are looking for different
ways of reducing sugar, but consumer Nestlé: It’s possible that we’ll see a shift in
acceptability varies depending which the confectionery and sweet snacks market
country and which consumer group you with the unveiling by Nestlé’s confectionery
are targeting. business in the UK of Milkybar Wowsomes,
For example, when premium UK tonic the first product using Nestlé’s new “structured
sugar” which is used to reduce sugar by
brand Fever Tree launched a light version
30% versus comparable bars.
it chose fructose (the “refreshingly light”
version has 2.9g of sugar compared with Wowsomes achieve the sugar reduction using only
the regular 8g). For a brand that’s built natural ingredients and with no sweeteners. Milk is the main
ingredient, it contains crispy oat cereal and is a source of fibre.
its success on better taste, using artificial
sweeteners – which can leave a detectable In the UK, Milkybar had retail sales in 2017 of £61 million ($87.6 million/€70.6 million)
flavour when mixed with, for example, according to Nielsen – a level that had been static for five years. That stall was unsurprising,
a subtly-nuanced gin – would not have given that a Milkybar is around 52% sugar.
been the right decision. As the company Researchers at Nestlé changed the structure of sugar creating an aerated, porous sugar that
said when it announced the light version: dissolves more quickly in the mouth. This allows consumers to perceive the same sweetness
“The Fever-Tree range is designed to as before while consuming less sugar.
complement and enhance a range of The sugar is a mixture of sugar, milk powder and water which is sprayed into warm air.
premium spirits…Unlike most mixers Spraying and drying in this way forms the porous sugar. The milk stabilises the spray-
on the market today, which contain dried sugar, stopping it from becoming too sticky. Nestlé says that a number of patents
high fructose corn syrup, saccharin or applications have been filed.
aspartame, Fever-Tree products contain Mondelez: Its Cadbury brand’s 2019 launch of a bar
no artificial sweeteners, preservatives or with 30% less sugar is one of a number of planned
flavorings, restoring taste and quality to lower sugar innovations. Others include: Cadbury
the category.” Boost+ Protein, which will contain 12g of protein per bar
and 32% less sugar than a standard Boost bar, and a
Sales of the light tonic now account
‘40% less sugar’ line extension of BelVita.
for a third of the brand’s retail sales.
By contrast, high-protein dairy dessert “By harnessing their leading-edge understanding of flavour technologies and material
Njie has been enormously successful in science, the team has successfully replaced the physical functionality of the sugar in solid
chocolate in a way that not only preserves the structure of chocolate but also stays true to the
Sweden despite being sweetened with
unique texture and taste profile of Cadbury Dairy Milk,” says Cadbury.
acesulfame K and aspartame. While in
consumer research people say they don’t

© New Nutrition Business 2018 56 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

2. MAKE IT “NATURAL” serve), with much of the sweetness protein and fibre content
Many people believe that if something delivered by date paste. By comparison, • Kellogg discontinued its lower-
is natural, it is somehow inherently a regular cereal such as Kellogg’s Special sugar version of Frosted Flakes
healthier. Products sweetened with honey K Red Berries with added sugar delivers (20% sugar) and has since released
or dates are the biggest winners (see 17g of sugar per 100g – practically the chocolate (40% sugar) and
Chart 19) as these natural sweeteners are same amount. cinnamon (30% sugar) varieties
more acceptable to consumers, even if Some companies are gaining • General Mills recently reported
the sugar level isn’t actually reduced. For consumer acceptability by putting the that its cereal sales rose by 2%,
example, Deliciously Ella’s energy balls focus on multiple benefits instead of only thanks to the introduction of
based on dates are focusing on sugar. ‘honestly indulgent’ sweet cereals
almost half sugar. • Deliciously Ella, for example, uses such as Peanut Butter Chocolate
Kellogg’s also a natural, “permissible” source of Cheerios (27% sugar) and Lucky
chose dates for its sugar – dates – as well as flagging Charms Frosted Flakes (33%
new W.K. Kellogg- up that the product has “only 6 sugar)
branded range ingredients”
of plant-based, • MyMuesli launched a no-sugar- 4. SUGAR FOR ENERGY
no-added-sugar added muesli – which is also high- Consumers looking for “natural
cereals. Apricot protein, high-fibre, low-carb. And energy” are forgiving about the level of
& Pumpkin Seed contains fruit pieces sugar if the product delivers the natural
No Added Sugar • Nakd’s Berry Delight bars are energy benefit.
Granola delivers gluten, wheat and dairy-free raw Deliciously Ella’s snacks, for example,
16g per 100g (7.2g of sugars per 45g fruit-and-nut wholefood bars with are billed as the “perfect plant-based
no added sugar – but the product snack to get you through the day”.
is 49% dates, resulting in a sugar Go Raw Cinnamon Spice bar is
content of 47.4g per 100g marketed as a plant-based raw energy
superfood, ticking a lot of desirable
3. PURE INDULGENCE boxes, yet it contains 35g sugar per 100g
If you market a product as healthy, from dates.
consumers will judge you more harshly Snelle Jelle wholemeal gingerbread
if the sugar content is higher than they single-serve snack is a hit in the
think is ‘right’ for a healthier product. Netherlands despite having 29.6g of
But if you market something as an sugar per 70g serving. This is even higher
honest, permissible indulgence, they will than indulgent Oreo cookies which
be much more forgiving about the sugar contain 26.6g of sugar per 70g. The
content. brand focuses on the target group of
Makers of breakfast cereal have sporty men and women who are looking
learned this lesson. Cereal makers are for natural energy for their activities.
embracing reality: people know cereal is
not as healthy an option as other foods.
Adults are buying the product more
and more for themselves, especially
Millennials, who are eating it as a snack
or a dessert. In response, cereal makers
are introducing sweeter options:
• Post brought back Oreo Os cereal
Siggi’s, the leading Icelandic yoghurt brand (43% sugar), made to taste like the
in the US market, capitalized on its naturally- popular chocolate cookie, which
lower sugar product when it introduced Simple
Sides in 2018. Siggi’s quoted an uptick in it had discontinued in 2007. It
consumers searching for less sugary options
as a factor in the development of Simple also stopped selling the Morning
Sides, which contain 11g of sugar per 150g Energy version of Honey Bunches
serving. Siggi’s said they offer a “more positive
nutritional profile amidst the traditionally sugar- of Oats, which touted its higher Based on its 60% date content, Deliciously Ella balls
filled yoghurt and mix-ins segment”. communicate an energy benefit.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 57 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

INGREDIENT CALL-OUT: HONEY

Honey is one of the most popular natural replacers for refined sugar, seen CHART 19: MOST MENTIONED SUGAR
by many consumers as a healthier alternative, as Chart 19 shows. REPLACEMENTS ON INSTAGRAM, SEPTEMBER 2018
Honey may contain slightly less fructose than sugar, and a tiny amount
of nutrients, but our body is not really able to tell the difference between
the two. But this doesn’t seem to matter for lifestyle and health-conscious
consumers who see white refined sugar as a poison to be avoided at all
cost, but still want to eat naturally-sweetened foods.
In media discussions the properties attributed to honey include:
• bioactive plant compounds and antioxidant content
• a smaller effect on blood sugar levels than sugar, making it a healthy
option for diabetics
• may reduce blood pressure
• may have some positive effects on cholesterol levels

Surce: Sysomos

An example of a big
winner in honey is
Nature Nate’s. It’s Honey sales are increasing:
sales in the year to
September 2018 were • UK honey sales are up 5.6%.
up by 26%, to $27
million (€23 million),
despite selling at a 50% • The $665 million US honey market grew by 2.5% in
price premium to other 2018 - its fifth year of growth.
brands.
• Sales of US private label honey declined as consumers
switched to honey brands with a strong identity (see Key
Trend 10).

MANUKA HONEY – HEALTH HALO AND

PROVENANCE
Manuka honey in particular benefits from a health CHART 20: GLOBAL FOOD & DRINK PRODUCT LAUNCHES WITH
halo and provenance (Key Trend 10). The total number HONEY AS AN INGREDIENT
of online mentions is low but increasing, rising 92%
between 2017 and 2018, making it one of the fastest-
growing ingredients in terms of online media mentions.
The most common product formats that use honey as an ingredient are snacks,
On Twitter and Instagram, manuka honey is mostly bakery products and breakfast cereals.
discussed as a natural remedy to prevent coughs when
mixed with lemon, ginger or in a herbal tea, or for gut
9000
health when added to apple cider vinegar.
8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2018

Source: Mintel GNPD

© New Nutrition Business 2018 58 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Sugar

SUGAR
CHART 21: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 4, SUGAR

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 22: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 4, SUGAR

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET

CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

SALES

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 59 www.new-nutrition.com

 Key trenD 5
GOOD CARBS,
BAD CARBS
NEW DIRECTIONS
Science on low-carb diet benefits, and consumers'
quest for better and fewer carbs, are fuelling new
opportunities in traditional carb categories.
Many consumers will adopt self-
defined lower-carb diets: a
personalised approach to low carb.

58%58% of consumers
REALITY
CHECK
39% now think that
carbs are the Despite the hype
calorie sources around low-carb diets,
most likely to most consumers will
cause weight continue to eat
2012 2018 gain. carbs
IFIC

Treating Type 2 diabetes with a low-carb/low-GI diet is becoming

a valid and accepted position among the medical community!

5 carb strategies for companies:

BETTER TRIM THE CARBS
CARBS TO
GREENER CARBS VOLUME INDnsUumLerGs wEill
CARBesSto FOR Many co t carbs
Rethink carbs and
Y
By reducing the
Add vegetabl
ntent
make them more
acceptable -"beige but
portion you give
consumers
ENERGa green
continue to ea -based
and want  ca rb
treats.
lower the carb cothe Carbs have
lgent" is
and increa se better"- gluten-free, permission to indulge. light as a source of "Honestly indu gy for
health halo of ca
rb with resistant starch, energy - it's a key te
a valid stra nies.
prod uc ts. lower carb content... consumer need and many compa
has already convinced
millions to have
biscuits for breakfast!

© New Nutrition Business 2018 60 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

Key Trend 5:
Good carbs, bad carbs – nudging
carbs in new directions
SUMMARY
• New directions: Evolving science, alongside food explorers’ quest for
the new and different, will drive demand for new carbs, fewer carbs and
better carbs.
• Carb categories will need to work harder to keep consumers
interested: They can do this with more appealing flavours and
ingredients and more convenient formats and packaging – something
that the rice category is already doing successfully.
• Low-carb approaches to reversing type 2 diabetes now have
mainstream medical acceptance: Thanks to media attention,
consumer awareness of this benefit – plus the significant weight loss that
goes with these regimes – will increase.
• There are five strategies companies can adopt in carbs: Four
of them are around “better” and “fewer” carbs, but carbs for honest
indulgence is a fifth strategy.

GOOD CARBS, BAD CARBS CONNECTS WITH 7 OTHER KEY

TRENDS

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

The opportunities and the challenges that – experiment with new ways of getting Despite the hype around low-carb
carb categories have faced over the last good carbs and/or fewer carbs, this is diets, in reality most consumers will
decade are just the beginning. Changes creating opportunities. continue to consume traditional carbs,
in carb consumption are set to fuel Many companies have made a success such as rice, potatoes and bread. But
further fragmentation of traditional carb from responding to these changes by these carbs now need to work harder
categories. delivering products with ‘better carbs’. (Key Trend 7: Snackification). For
The next five-to-10 years will see This shift has tended so far to have the example, in the UK market sales of
increasing changes in carb consumption most impact on grains – with growing potatoes decreased by 5.4% between
patterns. More people will: usage of the term ‘whole grain’ and 2014 and 2017, while sales of convenient
• drop “bad” carbs and replace surging interest in new and exciting ‘good rice and noodles with interesting grains
them with ‘good’ carbs (it’s worth grains’, from quinoa to teff. and flavours rose 30%.
remembering that their definition
of “good” and “bad” carbs will
be their own personal one, not an
objective scientific definition)
• reduce the total amount of carbs
in their total diet in response
to coverage by the media and
bloggers of emerging science and
public health advice
Australian rice grower and marketer Sunrice sells commodity rice but has also created a range of gluten-free
microwaveable meals-for-one and sides that combine brown rice with other grains, such as buckwheat, quinoa,
As consumer beliefs diverge, and ‘food red and black rice. Innovation has helped the company maintain its products’ place as a ‘good carb’, despite a
low-carb consumer trend in Australia. It has a 50% share of the microwaveable rice category, ahead of Mars’
explorers’ – a big percentage of people Uncle Ben brand.

Science propels low-carb acceptance

Like it or not, one of the most consensus that diabetes could be
important drivers of change is going to reversible and not a progressive, lifelong
be awareness of low-carb eating, and chronic condition. Food for Thought, a
anyone who dismisses it as a minority conference hosted by the world’s second-
interest and a fad that will die down (as it largest reinsurer in life and health, Swiss
“I think there may
did in the past) should have a rethink. Re, in collaboration with the British
When low-carb eating first surfaced Medical Journal (BMJ), brought together be a tipping point that
back in 2001-2003, the low-fat ethos heavyweights of nutrition science to we’re hearing about
(now widely questioned) still reigned and discuss the field’s most controversial
the reversal of some
protein was not widely accepted, making issues, including low-carbohydrate diets.
it difficult for people to eat low-carb. Conference chair Fiona Godlee, BMJ conditions, diabetes and
Nor was there a wide body of scientific editor-in-chief, told the gathering of obesity being two [of
support. nutrition scientists, endocrinologists,
them].”
But the case for consumers reducing epidemiologists and cardiologists: "I
their carbohydrate consumption took think there may be a tipping point that
– Fiona Godlee, BMJ editor-in-chief
several steps forward in 2018 thanks to we're hearing about the reversal of some
new science – particularly around Type 2 conditions, diabetes and obesity being
diabetes – and positive media attention. two [of them].”
The past 18 months has seen a surge Treating diabetes with a low-carb/low
in scientific evidence that low carb diets GI diet is no longer a minority position:
can reverse Type 2 diabetes. Scientific in 2018, the UK’s Royal College of
journals have reported patients losing General Practitioners introduced an
weight and successfully coming off educational module aimed at the nation’s
diabetes medication. 55,000 family doctors to learn how such
In addition, 2018 saw a growing an approach could benefit patients.

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

Positive attention from mainstream and social media

While it’s easy to dismiss low-carbing (vegetables), white (sugar) and beige (such leader of the Labour political party
as relevant only to consumers with a as bread, cake, cookies and pasta) – and Tom Watson had achieved huge weight
medical need – such as the 30 million were urged to avoid beige and white loss by avoiding starchy carbs and sugar
people in the US with Type 2 diabetes carbs. and adding fat grabbed headlines and
(and 86 million with pre-diabetes) or the Another documentary that aired in thousands of views on social media.
3.5 million with the condition in the UK 2018 on Netflix in the US, Canada, UK, Given the power that social media
– that would be to ignore the power of Australia and New Zealand, The Magic has to influence people, the low-carb-
mainstream and social media, as well as Pill, proved highly-controversial, with the diabetes link isn’t going unnoticed by
consumers’ appetite for something that Australian Medical Association (AMA) consumers. There’s evidence from online
will help them with weight management calling for to be withdrawn. It drew media discussions, Google trends and
– for most people, the primary motivator from anecdotal case studies to suggest other sources of a steadily building wider
for dietary change (see Introduction). a ketogenic or ultra-low-carb diet had awareness of the message that low carb
It’s also to ignore the power of word-of- benefits for autism, cancer and diabetes. diets could help reverse type 2 diabetes
mouth – as more diabetics go low-carb And in the UK, news that deputy and benefit weight.
the idea will inevitably spread to their
family and friends. BOX 39: LOW-CARB DIABETES PROGRAMME GOES MAINSTREAM
In mid 2018 for example, a BBC
programme seen by 3 million UK Diabetes.co.uk’s Low Carb Programme has
viewers claimed to present “The Truth been approved for use by the UK’s national
health service (NHS) and can be prescribed by
about Carbs”. Fronted by a doctor healthcare teams.
and pitched at a popular audience, it Diabetes.co.uk community support forum is
the world's first peer-to-peer diabetes support
featured UK general practitioner Dr community.
David Unwin, who is successfully using According to its website, it has “facilitated
a low-carb, low GI diet to treat his Type conversation and real-world evidence about a
low carb way of eating and its effectiveness in the
2 diabetic patients after his practice management of type 1, type 2, prediabetes for over
a decade. It was this collective experience and the
suffered an eight-fold increase in Type 2 feedback of 20,000 people with type 2 diabetes
that the Low Carb Program was created”. 
diabetes.
The programme is a personalised platform, with
Viewers were introduced to a education, resources and support tailored to
categorization of carbs, with green carbs achieving health goals.

BOX 40: DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY FUELLING GROWTH OF LOW-CARB

Technology start-up Virta Health wants to

revolutionise the way we treat diabetes with an ultra-
low-carb ketogenic diet – or “Atkins on steroids” as
some call it – because, it claims, typical approaches
to preventing and treating the condition aren’t
working.
A keto diet has been shown in clinical studies
(including one run by Virta) to be beneficial for Type
2 diabetes – but it’s also challenging to stick to. Virta
removes this barrier, providing support via online
medical supervision, feedback and coaching.
Virta is proving effective at promoting its message,
regularly broadcasting the results of clinical studies Virta’s mobile and desktop
(including its own ongoing study), as well as Founded in 2014, Virta Health’s mission is to reverse diabetes in 100 app acts as a “Clinic
million people by 2025 via “advancements in the science of nutritional in Your Pocket” to give
personal testimonies from Virta customers, via social biochemistry and technology that is changing the diabetes care immediate access to care. It
media – and attracting Silicon Valley investment to model”. It has raised $75 million in investment and is available in 50 offers educational content,
US states. biomarker tracking and
the tune of $75 million (€64.3 million), so far, to fuel connects users to a health
its ambitions. coach.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 63 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

Consumer thinking is changing

There’s been a 66% increase in the past elements of low carb eating, rather than
six years in the number of consumers follow strict LCHF or ketogenic diets
who think carbs (including sugar) cause (apart from those with Type 2 diabetes, “Our research tells
weight gain, according to figures from or elite athletes). us that 15% or so of
the International Food Information They will adopt a personalised
Council (IFIC). In 2012, when asked approach to low carb, for example, the American public is
which calorie sources were most likely to making trade-offs – dropping something actually following some
cause weight gain, consumer opinion was they find easier to give up in order to form of lower-carb,
evenly split between fat, carbs and sugar. make room for carbs they find it harder
By 2018, opinion had swung heavily to do without. For example, a consumer lower-sugar approach
towards carbs and sugar as the culprits, may cut cakes and cookies and bread to eating. We’ve had
with 58% of consumers blaming them from their diet so they can still enjoy a dramatic effect in
compared with just 39% in 2012. And a glass of wine or beer. Others will
the number of consumers who think all cut back on potatoes so that they can terms of leading that
sources are equal contributors to weight occasionally enjoy a delicious indulgent direction. Keto, Paleo,
gain plummeted from 30% in 2012 to pasta dish. Whole 30 – all of those
just 17% in 2018. People are open to innovations
IFIC also found that of the one-third that help them personalise their diet approaches are rooted in
of respondents who followed a specific in this way (Key Trend 6). One thing the concept of lowering
eating pattern or diet, 16% were on some that innovations need to do is to offer carbohydrates and
sort of low-carb diet – that’s more than convenience. People want the carbs that
were following a Mediterranean diet, a they are choosing to be easy and quick sugars.”
vegetarian or vegan diet, or the DASH – witness the trend for Millennials to – Scott Parker, Atkins chief marketing
diet. replace potatoes with easy-cook instant officer
Many consumers will likely adopt rice (Key Trend 7).
some sort of self-defined lower-carb diet.
Most will be inspired by and select from

UK politician Tom Watson’s headline-grabbing

weight loss was achieved by following
the Pioppi Diet devised by influential UK
cardiologist Dr Aseem Malhotra. It’s a a low-
carb diet that is rich in fat, including saturated
fats from coconut oil and full-fat dairy. It limits
starchy foods such as bread and pasta.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 64 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

CHART 23: PERCENTAGE OF CONSUMERS WHO CLAIM TO BE TRYING TO EAT LOW-CARB

CHART 24: DO YOU AGREE THAT EATING TOO MANY REFINED CARBS INCREASES YOUR RISK OF
DIABETES?

© New Nutrition Business 2018 65 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

Where are the opportunities?

Make sure your category remains a “One third greens” and “Less flour, more shopping lists: a “beige but better”
good choice for people who want to eat greens” and is marketed as containing strategy.
better, or fewer, carbs. Many companies “quality carbohydrates”. The breads are The product range of US breakfast
are already showing that flexibility and sometimes found not only in the bakery cereal maker Purely
creative NPD is key to success – or even aisle but also in the vegetable section Elizabeth includes
just survival, as we show below. of the shop, highlighting the vegetable grain-free and gluten-
Lowering carbs often goes hand-in- content. free granolas, made with
hand with eating more fat and/or more UK bread giant Warburtons has nuts and seeds. Cereal
protein, so it strongly overlaps with the launched three new giant General Mills has
Protein and Fat trends, which means that wraps – white, high invested in the company.
product developers may be looking at protein with super Resistant starch is gaining momentum
including more of these nutrients in their seeds, and beetroot. as a “better” carb with good science to
products. After customer support its role in positive blood sugar
feedback, it developed response. BarleyMax is barley, developed
1. GREENER CARBS a wrap that was softer in Australia, that offers four times the
Greening-up traditional carbs such and thinner, and resistant starch – and twice the dietary
as bread – by, for example, adding gluten-, wheat- and dairy-free. fibre – of regular barley. Introduced
vegetables that lower the carb content – Green Giant added to its range to the market in 2009, BarleyMax
gives people who want to reduce carbs of vegetable now appears in products like breakfast
in their diet permission to indulge, and “noodles” intended cereals, baked goods, noodles and pasta
gives the product a health halo of the as replacements for in Australia, New Zealand, the United
plant content (Key Trend 2). pasta with a beetroot States, Japan and China. The higher
Fazer, one of the biggest Nordic variety. By making fibre and protein content of BarleyMax
bakery groups and a major player vegetables convenient, can help food companies reach levels
in biscuit and grain products and Green Giant appeals required to make health and nutritional
foodservice, launched “greener” breads to consumers’ twin desires to cut down claims on food packaging.
with a vegetable content of at least 33% on beige carbs and to increase their One of the best sources of resistant
– used to replace flour – in 2015. This intake of plant foods. starch is green bananas, and flour made
year it added to the original two varieties from green bananas is available. Other
– carrot and parsnip and carrot and 2. BETTER CARBS good source include chickpeas and lentils
beetroot – courgette and parsnip and Rethinking those carbs that could be and some varieties of grains, such as
sweet potato with targets for consumers’ carb-lowering barley.
lentils. The range tactics – such as bread, potatoes, rice Whole grains could get a nudge from
is promoted with and pasta – could make them more research that sheds a new light on the
the messages acceptable and keep them on people’s cell level effects of a whole grain-rich diet
and could explain their blood glucose
BOX 41: NPD TAKES THE BOTHER OUT OF BEETROOT benefits. University of Eastern Finland
scientists announced in 2018 that a
whole-grain rich diet increases levels of
betaine compounds in the body – and
that these increases were associated with
improved glucose metabolism.
Recognising a growing low-carb
movement among New Zealand
consumers, T&G Global spent five years
developing a lower-carb potato – the
Lotato. Launched in 2017, it’s being
counted a success: “Consumer feedback
From difficult-to-prepare vegetable... to easy ravioli has been hugely positive and we’re in the

© New Nutrition Business 2018 66 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

enviable position of demand outstripping of the carby outer. The products are misconduct undoubtedly raised the
supply,” said marketing manager enjoying 20% annual growth and the profile of low-carbing. As Noakes said
Michelle Singh. range now includes also bagels and pitta in a media interview: “If I’m vindicated,
There’s also an opportunity for breads. then the diet is vindicated in the eyes of
better carbs where they overlap with Mrs.Thinsters is a cookie company the public”.
offering “low-calorie, thin, crispy cookies Sports professor Noakes – a former
made with simple ingredients found high-carb advocate who changed his
in any kitchen”. It’s views after developing Type II diabetes
available in major – has argued that your optimum carb
retailers in the US intake is determined by your body (some
and was acquired by runners seem to do fine on a high-carb
Clearlake Capital. diet), and by the type of sports you do
(endurance athletes may benefit from
4. CARBS FOR low-carb, high-fat diets as it gives them
artisanal and authentic products (see ENERGY access to deeper reserves of energy from
Key Trend 10: Provenance), as shown One area where carbs have a green stored fat).
by the growing sales of sourdough and light with consumers is as a source of The idea of selective use of carbs will
sourdough-like breads – which offer natural energy – it’s a key consumer migrate from the world of elite athletes
both better flavour and a connection to need, and a message that has convinced to weekend sports people.
the idea of fermentation (see Key Trend millions of consumers worldwide to eat The rise of the low-carb athlete
1). In Spain the bakery chain Panishop biscuits for breakfast. prompted Glanbia to develop CarbOut,
earns 20% of its sales from sourdough A group with a keen interest in energy a flavour innovation that allows product
bread alone. In the UK, sourdough is athletes – so it’s no surprise that developers to lower carbohydrate count
sales are soaring, even in mainstream thinking about carbs in the world of and improve protein levels.
retailers such as Tesco, where sales sports has moved on, with the approach “In today’s world, sports enthusiasts
jumped 40% in the year to March 2018, to carbs becoming more nuanced than and athletes are looking for ways to trim
while at upscale supermarket Waitrose, simply loading up with carbs before an carbohydrates from their diet,” said the
sales rose 46% in the year to September event. company. “Consumers request products
2018. The owner of single-store UK Sports has powered the protein trend with a higher protein content and fewer
bakery Lovingly Artisan said in a media over the past 10-15 years and is now carbs.”
interview that a trend which started in helping to fuel the better carbs trend. Another example is Beneo’s Palatinose,
London has spread nationally: “We sell One of the most high-profile advocates an ingredient in many sports drinks, is a
4,000 take-home loaves a week – up from of a low-carb high-fat diet for sports naturally-sourced “smart” carbohydrate,
just 200 six years ago”. performance is Professor Tim Noakes, providing full carbohydrate energy
whose trial and subsequent acquittal on (4kcal/g) in a more balanced way thanks
3. TRIM THE VOLUME a controversial charge of professional to its low-glycaemic profile. Palatinose
By reducing the portion size –
specifically making a product thinner
and less bulky – consumers can give
themselves permission to indulge.
Examples include:
Warburton's Thins offer fewer carbs
and less bulk. They allow consumers to
continue eating sandwiches for lunch
– but with more of the filling and less

© New Nutrition Business 2018 67 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

(isomaltulose) is purely based on sucrose

from sugar beet. By improving fat
oxidation during physical activity, it
prolongs energy supply.
The optimum product formats for the
natural energy message are essentially
Another small nail in the refined carbs coffin?: Refined grain products that had been
any type of on-the-go single-serve displaying the Heart Mark logo from the Heart and Stroke Foundation South Africa (HSFSA)
snacking product. Almost every brand must now stop using it. “Earmarking refined grains as a health food may lead to displacement
of whole grains, legumes and vegetables,” said the HSFSA. “This does not mean that using
that has made a success of natural energy refined grains as affordable and fortified energy sources should be actively discouraged.
However, promoting their intake to maintain or improve health contradicts evidence-based
is a snack or a product that has been dietary advice and continued endorsement of refined grains is a disservice to the public”.
adapted to be a snack (see Key Trend 7).

5. CARBS FOR INDULGENCE BOX 42: WHAT ARE THE HARDEST CARBS TO CUT?
Many consumers, unaffected by
diabetes or weight problems, will of
course continue to eat carbs. And WHAT ARE THE READ/TOA
HARDEST CARBS 20%

ST
while others might be cutting down on

B
carbs, it’s often in the form of a trade-
off – cutting out bread and pasta but
continuing to eat cake and desserts, for
example – that means there’s still room TO CUT?
in their life for a carb-based treat. For
many companies, marketing a brand or COHOL RICE
a range that’s “honestly indulgent” is a
Bread, alcohol and rice are AL
valid strategy.
the toughest sacrifices for
low-carbers, according to a
question posed on Twitter. 12% 12%
PIZZA TO
CHIPS FRUIT
A

/F
POT

8.4% 8.4% 10.8%

RIES

COLA E CREAM PASTA POTATO

HO T IC
C

4.8% 6% 6% 7.7%
GA
PCORN AP
LE SYR
S/
BAKED SU R
PO
M

UP

PASTRIE

GO

1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 3.6%

ODS

DRINK MILK T POTA IO

UL DAT CO
RN
YO
GHUR
ZY EE
D
SW

TO

T
FIZ

ES
S

ME

1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

Based on replies to a question posted on Twitter:
(https://twitter.com/BelindaFettke/status/1012252760438394880?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=em
ail)

© New Nutrition Business 2018 68 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

BOX 43: MILLENNIALS AND CARBS

CARBS:
“I often eat bread, less so “I don’t usually pay too much
pasta, rice, barley, quinoa, attention to my health, but
couscous etc. I try to control sugar is an exception. I know

WHAT
the intake of carbs by limiting it that it makes you fat and I
to one main meal, sometimes prefer to replace it with natural
also breakfast. Any carb is sweeteners such as stevia.”

ARE
good as long as it is raw and
unprocessed. Hence all grains – Chilean, publicist, 28, female
mentioned before are good,

MILLENNIALS
whereas the processed bread
should be avoided.” “I find that carbs provide me
with more energy than other

THINKING?
– Italian, Phd student, 30, foods and give me the feeling
female of a full stomach for longer
than with other foods. I reckon
“I have a sweet tooth and they are full of energy, and
“I’m very aware that since childhood I’ve had I try to avoid them after a
excessive sugar levels can be difficulties controlling my certain time in the evening. I
prejudicial to my health and appetite for sweets. I try to try to avoid sugar as much as
wellbeing. Increased sugar avoid sweet food because possible, though I rely much on
consumption seems to be I am aware that large sugar carbs like bread or pasta.”
related to serious problems intake is unhealthy and – Portuguese, architect, 30,
such as diabetes or obesity. I can lead to diseases like male
try to avoid it, in particular in diabetes and it is not helping
products such as fizzy drinks with maintaining desired
or other products advertised waistline.” “I usually include carbs in my
as light or zero fat, which main meal as I have limited
generally have high levels of – Croatian, tourist agency
director, 30, female time for prep and they tend to
sugar to compensate.” be quick and easy. Also they
– Portuguese, architect, 30, make me feel full. I try to have
male gluten free pasta and bread
“I try to reduce my sugar
as last time I cut out gluten I
intake by not putting sugar
“I favour starchy carbs as they lost weight quite easily. I like
in coffee or tea anymore,
give me sustained energy and my bread to include seeds
avoiding sodas or drinks that
keep me feeling full so I don’t and nuts if possible as it’s an
contains lots of sugar in them.”
need to snack all the time. easy way to include those
Most people agree you need – French, osteopath, 26, male in my diet. I try to minimise
plenty vegetables and fruit but sugar, I keep small amounts of
there is disagreement about chocolate around for me, and
eating the starchy carbs, for the kids, cookies partially
potatoes and grains. I think it “I believe carbs are one of sweetened with date puree
depends on whether these are the essential components to lessen the sugar hit. For the
processed or unprocessed. of nutrition, and a diet low kids, I encourage consumption
Keep the preparation simple; in carbs could lead to of whole fruit and I water
steamed whole potatoes, problems.” ” down juices.”
not fries; whole intact grains, – Spanish, journalist, 30, – New Zealander, full time
rather than fine flours. As for female mother, 37, female
fruit, eat them whole, not as
juices to avoid blood sugar “I’m Spanish and bread is a
spikes. The best starchy carbs big part of our cuisine. A while
in my opinion are potatoes, “I don’t have any special ago I decided to lower its
kumaras (sweet potatoes), approach to carbs. I really content in all my meals and
pumpkin, oats, quinoa, don’t pay any attention to now I make more of an effort
amaranth and brown rice. ” them – carbs are just a side- to try to find breads of higher
dish or a dessert” quality.”
– New Zealander, legal
executive, 38, female – Croatian, engineer, 26, – Spanish, digital strategist,
male 33, male

© New Nutrition Business 2018 69 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

BOX 44: JAPAN GOES LO-CA-BO

Japanese food is often seen as healthy compared to the modern The “Vegetable-First Diet” has become well-known and is practiced
Western diet, thanks to a population with a high life expectancy by many Japanese, and it has facilitated the launch of a number of
(average 83.7 years) and a low rate of obesity (on average, 4.3%). low-carb products, typically reducing carbohydrate content by using
But the Japan Times has called diabetes “Japan’s hidden scourge”. In soy pulp, dietary fibre or barley instead of wheat or rice.
2017 the country ranked six among the top 10 countries for people
Here are some of the many responses from Japanese industry:
older than 65 with diabetes.
• Supermarkets and convenience stores now sell products
The Japanese diet has been highly carb-based, with rice and
labeled “Carb-free”, “Zero-carb” or “Carb-off” such as the
noodles forming part of every meal. And some of the most popular
Zero-Carb Noodle range from Kibun Foods and the Off-
Japanese foods are the first thing you’d avoid on a low-carb diet.
Carb Kitchen series (noodles and rice balls) by Ezaki Glico
But a number of factors have been working together over the past (confectionery). Kibun’s range is also used in food service.
few years to change Japanese consumers’ view on carbs, and the
• Rizap, a personal training gym that has led the low-carb diet
overall Japanese “low-carb”, “carb-free” and “zero-carb” market
trend, developed a variety of food products together with food
in 2016 was worth an estimated Y343.1 billion (US$3.06 billion),
companies and retailers. Family Mart, a major convenience
according to Fuji Keizai, and was expected to grow further. “Lo-ca-
store chain, collaborated with Rizap to introduce nine products
bo” has become a keyword and symbol for the low carb trend in
including low-carb breads, cakes, puddings and a Café Latte
Japan and a variety of “Lo-Ca-Bo” branded foods including bakery
RTD drink.
products, snacks, pasta and noodles have been launched.
• Pizza Hut’s low-carb pizza and Chicken Big Salad have been
Influential factors include:
hits.
• A hugely-successful book by Dr. Ebe Kouji, pioneer of a carb-
• Gourmet magazine dancyu also developed Bento (boxed
controlled diet after trying it to cure his own diabetes. Called
meal) and rice balls low in carbs.
Skip Staple Food to Improve Diabetes, the book emphasises the
importance of reducing carbohydrate for diabetes improvement • Some ramen noodle shops have introduced no-noodle menus,
and offers low-carb recipes. and many hamburger shops let consumers choose low-carb
buns or lettuce instead of traditional buns.
• Dr Satoru Yamada, Director of the Diabetes Center at the
Kitasato University Kitasato Institute Hospital in Tokyo, is another
advocate of a low carbohydrate diet and recommends
reducing daily consumption slowly to 70g-130g.
• Nikkei Health; a monthly health and beauty magazine that’s
extremely influential among female readers aged between 20
and 40, has featured a range of articles plugging the benefits of
Lo-ca-bo.
Pizza Hut X Rizap “Low-carb” pizza

Kibun’s “zero-carb
Nisshin “low carb pancake Kagome’s low-carb
noodle series”
/okonomiyaki mix” ready-to-eat meals

The December 2017 issue of Nikkei

Health has a special article about
“Adequate way to take carbs and fats
for easy weight management”.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 70 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Good carbs, bad carbs

CARBS
CHART 25: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 5, GOOD CARBS, BAD CARBS

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 26: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 5, GOOD CARBS, BAD CARBS
TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET
CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

SALES

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 71 www.new-nutrition.com

 Key trenD 6

FRAGMENTATION &
PERSONALISATION 
Personalisation and fragmentation of the market go hand-in-
hand, creating a wealth of opportunities for brands.

CONSUMER KEY
DRIVERS CHALLENGES
Fragmentating 
Loss of Consumer beliefs about food
confidence credibility
and health means that
in experts smaller brands are taking
Complex greater market share.
Everyone is making relationship

89%
their own rules about between
what's healthy or not.
nutrients,
diet and
Empowerment health
by technology of the top 200 consumer
brand launches in 2017
From websites to apps, Data privacy earned less than $40m.
technology enables IRI
consumers to do their
own research - health Commercial
professionals are no practicality
longer the gatekeepers
of knowledge.

Habit found that delivering foods that match a science-based diet was the most
complex part of its personalised nutrition company. The company stopped its tailored
ready-to-eat meal delivery service and is focusing on the other aspects of its service.

How can companies connect to personalisation?

Ingredient companies can: Food & Beverage companies can:
Focus on dietary supplements - these are Focus on weight management or sports - offer
much easier to reformulate or adapt than a portfolio of brands finely targeted at a
food & beverage products. fragmenting market.

Use e-commerce as a valid, and sometimes best,

Focus on capabilities to provide different route to reach niche consumer groups.
ingredient combinations and tailor-made
solutions in smaller volumes.
Offer a not-so-serious approach
to personalisation, like allowing
consumers to personalise their
final products.

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

Key Trend 6:
Fragmentation & personalisation
– a galaxy of niches?
SUMMARY
• The area of consumer opportunity that’s the least understood
and the most hyped-up. Often described as a ‘wave of the future’, in
fact it’s already here and has been for 15 years. Consumers increasingly
make up their own minds about what diet is right for them, and their
fragmented behaviour has led to increasing fragmentation of markets.
• It’s often described as something made possible by
technology – and there’s truth in that. But it’s the technology that’s
in the hands of consumers – mobile devices – that is most powerful as
it allows them to do their own research about eating patterns. Mobile
devices are more influential than the DNA-testing technology.
• Weight wellness always wins. While for some consumers,
personalisation may be about treating disease and maintaining health,
for most, the key motivation will be weight management/looking good.
• The science is promising but there’s still a long way to go. Genes
only tell part of the story, meaning that in most cases DNA testing lacks
any relevance or practical application.
• Science-based personalisation will be a series of niches with
weight management and sports being the most important.

FRAGMENTATION & PERSONALISATION CONNECTS WITH 8

OTHER KEY TRENDS

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

Bring up the subject of personalisation, nutritional needs.” This is even more true
and to many consultants and some in 2019.
industry people it means people using This growing fragmentation of the
DNA tests (or gut microbiome tests) consumer market, and in particular the
to find the best diet for their health. fragmentation of people’s beliefs about
There is “...increasing They envisage a world in which people food and health, means that it’s now ‘the
fragmentation of increasingly buy foods tailored to their new normal’ in food and beverage that
consumers’ perception unique genetic needs. categories are splintering. More smaller
It’s a great vision, but one that will brands are taking greater market share.
of what is healthy remain niche for many years – perhaps It’s a change which reflects:
in terms of food and the next 10 years – held back by several • that we are all restless food
beverages. Increasingly, factors, including: explorers now, searching for
• the questionable science of something different and willing to
individual consumers commercially-available tests give almost anything new a try
seem to regard health • the difficulty for companies of • the willingness of companies to
as an extensive menu of figuring out the ‘personalised finely target their offerings at sub-
diet’ part in a way that enables segments of the market
options from which they them to produce small volumes of • the fact that consumers
select the dishes that product, perhaps even deliver it increasingly make personalised
make the most sense direct to consumers, and still make food choices based on their own
a profit online research, and are no longer
in the context of their • the significant investment needed confined by what broad dietary
individual beliefs, health to provide an effective service guidelines tell them is right
needs and lifestyles. In
It’s also a vision that ignores the The drivers of the fragmentation of
effect they customize fact that personalisation is already an markets and consumers’ increasingly
their nutritional choices established consumer behaviour – one personalised choices are:
to meet their own that is creating a wealth of opportunities
for brands. 1. LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN
nutritional needs.” New Nutrition Business first pointed EXPERTS
out this emerging trend back in 2003, Everyone is making their own rules.
– NNB, 2003
observing “...increasing fragmentation People no longer see dietitians and
of consumers’ perception of what is health professionals as the experts on
healthy in terms of food and beverages. food and health.
Increasingly, individual consumers seem Changes in dietary advice over the
to regard health as an extensive menu of past 15 years have created consumer
options from which they select the dishes scepticism about the “expert” opinions of
that make the most sense in the context dietitians and nutrition researchers, just
of their individual beliefs, their individual at the moment when technology makes
health needs and their individual it easier for people to find information
lifestyles. In effect they customize their and create their own rules. NNB’s
nutritional choices to meet their own own research found that only 14% of

© New Nutrition Business 2018 74 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

consumers would consult a dietitian – 2. PEOPLE EMPOWERED BY in the past, despite a small uptick in
most turned to the internet or friends TECHNOLOGY 2017:
and family for advice and ideas. • in 2014 the sales of a new
Consider that: Technology has overthrown dietitians Pacesetter averaged $22.9 million
• Condemned in the 1990s as a and health professionals as the (€19 million)
source of cholesterol that should gatekeepers of knowledge about food • in 2015 it was down to $19.6
be eaten no more than 2-3 times and health. A host of websites, apps and million (€16 million)
a week back, eggs have been re- social media platforms enable consumers • in 2016 it had fallen to $11.4
born as one of nature’s superfoods to do their own research about food million (€9.4 million)
(Key Trend 3) and sales are and health – mostly on their phones. • in 2017 year-one sales averaged
surging. Consumers can find information that 20 $14.5 million (€12 million)
• For 30 years health professionals years ago would only have been found
demonised dairy for its saturated in a few magazines or TV programmes, This steady shrinkage of sales of new
fat content – producing a or from health professionals. With this products is no aberration – it has been a
consumer obsession with low-fat knowledge, people feel more confident trend for 10 years. As a result, businesses
dairy products in some countries. to create personalised healthy eating are having to lower their expectations of
But this advice has proven to have patterns and conduct eating experiments what a success looks like.
no foundation. Researchers are to find what works for them.
rolling back the negatives about The consequence of fragmenting
dairy fat (Key Trend 9) and the consumer beliefs is showing up in retail
view that it is connected to risk of sales. In the US market, for example,
cardiovascular disease has been IRI’s annual Pacesetters report shows
firmly debunked. that making a quick and big success of
• A similar shift has happened for a new product is much less likely than in
nuts of all kinds, dark chocolate, the past. As IRI says, “sub-$20 million
wine and coffee. Once demonised, launches have become the norm”. For
we now know that they provide example:
all-natural health benefits. • in 2014 37% of new Pacesetter
brands (defined by IRI as brands
The discovery that these, and many that achieved more than $7.5
other natural foods which have long million/€6.2 million in retail sales
been demonised by health advisors, not in their first year on the market)
only do no harm but make a positive earned less than $20 million
contribution to health has pushed many (€16.6 million) in first year sales
people to become their own experts. • in 2015 this had increased to 46%
And unsurprisingly, as consumer • in 2016, fully 67% of new
research shows over and again in most products earned less than $20
markets, people are confused about diet million in first year sales
and health. A survey of US consumers • in 2017 there was a slight
conducted each year by the International improvement, with 62% below the
Food Information Council (IFIC) showed $20 million threshold
in 2018 that most consumers (80%) had
encountered conflicting information In fact, 89% of the top 200 consumer
about food and nutrition – and 59% said brand launches of 2017 earned less than
that had made them doubt their choices. $40 million (€33 million) in year-one
Faced with confusion, consumers sales. This, says the IRI report, “is a
decide their own rules (or their friends’ trend that has been unfolding for several
rules) are as good as anyone else’s. As a years now, and it is showing no signs of
result, individual consumer behaviour change”.
around diet has become more pluralistic. Average first-year sales of successful
brands have settled at a lower level than

© New Nutrition Business 2018 75 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

BOX 45: BLOGGERS – A POWERFUL INFLUENCE ON CONSUMERS’ PERSONALISED DIETARY

DECISIONS

A 2018 post by top Brazilian health and fitness blogger Gabriela In a series of short videos she describes IBS, saying that it’s more
Pugliesi, who has over four million followers, about an obscure diet common than most people think, and sharing her nutritionist’s advice
called FODMAPS (see Key Trend 1) is a perfect example of the that following a low-FODMAPs diet for two months would change
influence that social media and “digital celebrities” have in rising her gut microbiome and stop most IBS symptoms. She also posted
awareness and discussion of trends. charts showing which foods to avoid on a low FODMAPs diet, and
which are OK.
FODMAPs is established in Australia and emerging in the US and the
UK, but it’s practically unheard of in most other countries. The effect was immediately apparent, with the term “FODMAP”
peaking on Google searches in Brazil during the week in which her
But that could be about to change after Pugliesi introduced at least
Instagram video appeared online.
2% of the Brazilian population to the concept. In July 2018, she
devoted a special Instagram story to “leaky gut (IBS)” and explored There’s no way of measuring how many consumers listened to
how a diet low in FODMAPs – fermentable carbs found in many Pugliesi’s talk and then sought out and bought low-FODMAP
common foods – could help to overcome symptoms. products. But the effect that influencers can have on consumers’
awareness about products and trends is undeniable.
THE TERM ‘FODMAP’ PEAKED ON GOOGLE
SEARCHES IN BRAZIL

CHART 27: PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS WHO CHART 28: PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS

Percentage of respondents who TEST
say Percentage
WHO of respondents
SAY THEY HAVE who
TAKEN A DNA TEST
SAY THEY HAVE TAKEN A GUT MICROBIOME
they
FOR have taken
PERSONAL DIETARYaADVICE
Gut Microbiome FORsay they have
PERSONAL taken
DIETARY a DNA test
ADVICE
for personal dietary advice
test for personal dietary advice

Source: NNB consumer survey 2018 Source: NNB consumer survey 2018

© New Nutrition Business 2018 76 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

Personalisation is here already

Despite the advances in personalised • aware that eating fewer refined Most companies reported back that
nutrition tools and services, most carbs could help them lose weight, the DNA was unreadable. But one,
consumers are not waiting for DNA consumers will drop some carbs Orig3n, “failed to note that Bailey was
tests to identify their personal nutrition but keep others that they find not human,” the network said, and sent
needs. They are already making decisions harder to give up (for example, a seven-page report of diet and exercise
about what is best for them through avoid cake but continue to drink recommendations for Bailey.
self-diagnosis, choosing diets that are (or alcohol) – creating a personalised Canadian company Viaguard Accu-
are inspired by) gluten-free, wheat-free, system of tradeoffs Metrics has reportedly sent back human
dairy-free, Paleo, keto, Mediterranean • 60% of people avoiding sugar will ancestry results from a cheek swab from a
or whatever. Health-motivated people choose products in which honey pet chihuahua named Snoopy.
already practice personalised nutrition at or dates have replaced cane sugar, 2. The complex, multifactorial
some level. believing they’re more natural and nature of the nutrient/diet and
An NNB survey of over 2,000 therefore healthier health relationships
consumers in the US, Brazil, UK and This poses the biggest challenge. There
Spain showed that consumers are Some people in industry believe is no doubt that the current data can
making dietary choices based on what that we will soon advance to a more already help to make some improvements
they believe is best for them, and not sophisticated type of personalisation, to general dietary recommendations.
necessarily based on scientifically-tested based on DNA tests. While this area Take coffee: guidelines advise no more
nutritional needs: may be a good opportunity for test kit than four or five cups per day, but some
• over 50% said that they providers apps and services that help people have a genetic variant of the
occasionally choose to have people with their lifestyle, it’s some way CYP1A2 gene that makes them “slow
gluten-free foods, but only 8.4% off being an opportunity for all but a metabolizers” of caffeine, and for them,
said they were gluten-intolerant handful of food companies. The case of more than 2 cups of coffee daily might
• only 13% claimed to be lactose- Habit (see Box 48) illustrates some of the have negative impacts on their health.
intolerant, but over 50% challenges. But can our genes or even our gut
occasionally choose lactose-free The area of DNA testing is rife with microbiome really tell us much about
foods problems. Here are four of them: how we should be eating? Even though
1. Consumer credibility a genetic variant might influence your
Other examples of fragmented The media has reported several susceptibility to a particular disease,
behavior and choices include: embarrassing fails for DNA testing simply having a certain genetic variant
• the number of consumers who companies. doesn’t mean you will get that disease.
believed that meat negatively As part of an investigation into the Genes only tell half the story, and there
impacts digestive health is almost accuracy of home testing DNA kits, are still many chapters missing.
the same as those who believe that NBC Chicago sent the DNA of a dog This was underscored by a study
meats can benefit digestive health. called Bailey to several companies. recently published in JAMA Pediatrics, that

Gut microbiome sequencing company Day Two’s brand messages focus on personalisation. Having profiled a customer’s gut microbiome composition,
and with lifestyle information from a customer questionnaire, Day Two identifies which foods will help keep the consumer’s blood sugar levels stable.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 77 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

assessed how the home environments of the personalisation service, with the
“We still don’t
of young children who are genetically ‘tech’ – apps and DNA tests – by far the
at high risk for obesity can influence easiest part. have the ability to
whether they become overweight or For companies looking at science- accurately predict the
obese. The study’s main finding was that based personalisation, it’s not just
most healthy diet for
living in a less “obesogenic” home halved about DNA or gut tests and supplying
the size of the genetic influence. “Genes food, it’s about the quality of your an individual…with
are not destiny,” said researcher Myles S service and ongoing customer support. or without the use of
Faith PhD of the University of Buffalo. Habit realized the importance of this,
genomic”
“Healthier homes can potentially offset dropping its food delivery ambitions
obesogenic genes.” and strengthening its support. You need – Rasmus Nielsen, Geneticist at
Most of the genetic tests available to be willing and able to make a large University of California Berkeley
look at SNPs (genetic variations), but investment in your service component.
for many of these SNPs the evidence is 4. Data privacy
lacking or even conflicting. Factors like Concerns about privacy can prevent
“I think companies
ethnicity, age and gender influence the consumers from engaging with
tests’ accuracy, and other environmental personalised nutrition services. It is offering personalised
factors are known to affect gene important to reassure consumers about dietary advice are
expression, casting a shadow on the how their personal data will be used and
probably running
relevance of such tests. analyzed. This is particularly important
In a 2018 randomized controlled in the light of revelations about how ahead of the evidence.
trial published in JAMA, researchers social media companies such as Facebook I am skeptical
concluded that neither genotype have used personal data.
about many of these
patterns nor baseline insulin secretion
was associated with the effect of diet on Overall, DNA tests are not yet reliable products because of
weight loss. Matching people to either enough, and the cost of delivering the the slender or non-
low-fat or low-carb diets based on their food in a personalised way is too high.
existent scientific
genotype made no difference to their DNA-driven personalised diets may yet
weight loss. become a profitable, big niche business basis for them.”
Research by scientists at King’s – in areas such as sports performance
College London found that less than for example – but more for testing – John Matters, Director of the
18% of gut processes could be attributed companies than for the food and Human Nutrition Research Center at
to hereditary (genetic) factors, but 67% beverage industry. Newcastle University

of gut activity was found to be influenced

by environmental factors, mainly a BOX 46: NESTLÉ APP PERSONALISES DIET
person’s regular diet.
A more robust way of addressing Wellness Ambassador By Nestlé is an app The app mainly targets Japan’s ageing
personalised nutrition needs to consider launched in Japan that analyses photos population. It currently has around 100,000
of meals loaded by the user in order to users. The platform represents a move from
not only genetic variants and gut
offer advice on future meals and nutritional food to healthcare for the company. “The
microbiome screening, but also lifestyle, supplements they could benefit from. healthcare industry is the only way for food
health history, symptoms, anthropometric companies to survive”, said Nestlé Japan’s
Consumers can also opt for the second level
factors (weight, body fat…), blood CEO.
of the app, taking a blood and DNA test
biomarkers and even personal
(kit supplied by Nestlé) which is used by
preferences. Almost all these factors can the app to make personalised diet plans for
be altered by external influences (like the user. Nestlé partnered with Japanese
stress or chemical exposure) and change start-ups Genesis Healthcare and Halmek
over time, in some cases by the week! Ventures to analyse these tests.
3. Commercial practicality Drinks such as kale smoothies and collagen
As Habit (see Box 48) found, delivering drinks are often recommended, and
to customers foods that match a science- consumers can get capsules of personalised
based diet was the most complex part fortified teas made in a similar way to a
Nespresso coffee.

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

How can companies connect to personalisation?

IF YOU ARE AN INGREDIENT
COMPANY:
• Focus on dietary supplements
– these are much easier to
reformulate or individually
adapt than food and beverages.
Many supplement companies
are using personalised nutrition
as a marketing message to offer
tailor-made personal solutions
for their needs (such as VITL
or Vitamin Manager). Despite
doubtful measurement tools, these
companies are connecting with
consumers who want individual
solutions in a quick, non-intrusive
and easy way.
• Focus on capabilities to provide
different ingredient combinations
and tailor-made solutions in
smaller volumes.

IF YOU ARE A FOOD &

BEVERAGE COMPANY: Belgian start-up Alberts is rolling out 100 vending machines that allow consumers to choose their own
ingredients from 10 different fruit and vegetables, to create a personalised smoothie. Customers can choose
• Focus on weight management from six –pre-programmed blends or download an app to personalise their recipe.
or a niche. Relying on external
manufacturing can be part of BOX 47: MY MUESLI PERSONALISING CEREAL
the solution, making it easier to
achieve smaller volumes in a cost- German cereal-maker MyMuesli has
effective way. offered a personalised cereal service since
2008, allowing consumers to make their
“At mymuesli you can
• E-commerce is a valid route to
reaching people, particularly to
own ingredient choices from 83 ingredients mix your individual
target niche consumer groups.
and delivering them to their home. When
MyMuesli analysed 100,000 customised
organic muesli from
• You don’t always have to offer orders, only 42 had identical ingredients. over 80 different
a serious DNA-testing-based
approach. Belgian start-up
The company now operates in five European
countries and has sales of over €50 million
ingredients. With
Alberts is rolling out vending per year. While personalised orders remain 566 quadrillion
machines that allow consumers the core of the brand, it now also sells
consumer-ready product in retail stores as
possible mixes
to choose their own ingredients
to personalise their smoothie.
well as online, and has a partnership with there’s something for
German cereal-maker MyMuesli
Swiss dairy giant
Emmi to produce
everyone.”
has offered a personalised cereal two cereal-based
service since 2008, and has breakast drinks.
become highly successful simply
by allowing consumers to make
their own ingredient choices and
delivering them to their home for
a premium price of up to 400%
(see Box 47).

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

BOX 48: HABIT SHOWS DELIVERING PERSONALISED FOOD IS TOUGHER THAN TECH

In 2016 Campbell announced a $32 million investment in the

personalised nutrition start-up Habit. But after a test market in
the San Francisco Bay area, it became clear that delivering
personalised foods to consumers is by far the most challenging
part of a personalisation offer and demands a set of capabilities
that are entirely different from running an online information and
advice platform. Making and delivering nutritious and delicious
personalised food is, it seems, is much tougher than tech.
Habit may instead make partnerships with one or more existing food-
delivery outfits.
CEO Neil Grimmer said that Habit has backed down from its initial
inclination to handle the delivery phase itself after the test concluded,
saying that the “last mile” of helping consumers complete a food
regimen is by far the most challenging and demands a large set
For $299 (€255), Habit provides DNA testing and “personalised
of capabilities that are entirely different from running an online
nutrition blueprints” and provides an initial half-hour of phone advice
information and advice platform.
with a dietitian plus ongoing consultations. Habit’s own pilot studies,
“And meal delivery isn’t known as a huge-profit-margin business in as well customer testimonials and social-media interest, have fueled
general,” he said. “A lot of people are trying to figure it out, but no its growth.
one has been able to crack the code yet.”
Habit has also been enhancing its digital services, “curating food”
Grimmer said that Habit’s local test “actually went very well when we by creating “personalised recipes” for customers based on its
first launched with home delivery.” With a limited base of consumers, recommendations, according to Grimmer. “That’s been received
he explained, “in the earliest stages of [Habit’s] life cycle, it was very incredibly well,” he said. “These activation tools are how people can
encouraging. At the end of the day, people do want a solution to be put [Habit] into practice in daily life, and people get excited about
able to get recommendations based on what their unique body is that.”
telling the Habit profile – and to be able to put that into practice in
Habit also introduced a text-based conversation bot called “Ally,” for
their lives.
an additional $129 (€110) to handle what Grimmer called “411-type
“But what we realized is that in order to scale our own meal-delivery of interactions” that are information-based and provide an effective
operation around the country, it would take tens or hundreds of bridge to more meaningful “911-type interactions.”
millions of dollars to do that efficiently, and there are players in the
So, for example, Ally reaches out to subscribers daily to ask how
market that already are doing a fairly good job in terms of meal
confident they’re feeling that day about making smart, healthful food
delivery.
choices, on a scale of 1 to 5. The response triggers a dietitian to
“We believe we could overlay our filter of personalisation on follow up with more detailed and personalised guidance.
existing products that they already offer to help people make
“Someone is saying, ‘I need your help, or, ‘I don’t understand this,’
personalised food choices more prolifically than if we make the
or, ‘I’m feeling this,’ or, ‘I’m not going to make good food choices
meals ourselves.”
tonight.’ Our coaches will jump in immediately and respond
personally,” Grimmer said. “So Ally allows us to have our coaches
spend more time on high-value-add interactions instead of some of
the 411, transactional types of things. All of that is to advance better,
more meaningful interactions between coaches and customers.”
Also new is a $100 (€85.50) discount for new customers who
already have had their DNA tested by 23andme or Ancestry.com.
“The thinking there is that there are over 12 million people who
already have their DNA sequenced [through those services], so
instead of asking them to sequence their DNA more than once, we
want to give those people the ability to do more with the sequencing
they already have. It’s a value-add for customers – and a straight
path to us.”

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fragmentation & personalisation

PERSONALISATION
CHART 29: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 6, FRAGMENTATION & PERSONALISATION

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 30: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 6, FRAGMENTATION & PERSONALISATION

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET
CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

SALES

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 81 www.new-nutrition.com

 Key trenD 7

SNACKIFICATION
THE POWER OF CONVENIENCE
Snackification & Convenience is a powerful driver
of opportunity, growth and better margins in
every single category.
Re-invent From "messy"
commodities as  to convenient
ultraconvenient snacks
snacks
no limits to
product
From meal development By-products
time to snack and waste
on-the-go turned into
exciting snacks

!
Innovations in ingredients and processing technologies mean that there is no
limit on what can be turned into a convenient snack.
Consumers are willing to experiment and adopt foods and flavours that are
new and different - and will pay a premium for a good-tasting snack. 

NEW ROUTES
56% TO
SNACKIFICATION
A focus on & CONVENIENCE
STRATEGY CHECKLIST:
convenience
CREATE YOUR can
CHECKLIST CONSUMERS
make anything into a Snacks' small packs and low
What's oldsnack
successful is made new again
What's old made new -again cost of purchase opens the door
even vegetables. to a wide range of distribution
channels.
BeBeunashamedly premium
unashamedly premium
Vending
machines can
Successful snack
Successful snack brands
brands will be will be be a useful
smaller
smaller channel for
new snack
Permission to indulge brands.
Offer permission to indulge
Farmer's
Any category can be a snack - no limits Fridge is now
Any and every category can be a a $10 million
snack - no limit on NPD! business in the
US.
© New Nutrition Business 2018 82 www.new-nutrition.com
 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

Key Trend 7:
Snackification – harnessing the
power of extreme convenience
SUMMARY
• Snackification is a trend across all categories.
• Opportunity: Fragmentation of markets and a variety of consumer
preferences means opportunities abound. Consumers are very willing to
pay to try new and innovative healthy snacks.
• Reinvention: Snacking companies are shaking up old categories and
markets – such as the reinvention of meat snacks as a premium, tasty and
healthy product.
• No limits on innovation: Product developers and marketers should
open their minds to create innovative propositions beyond consumers’
imaginations then build consumer demand for them.
• Permission to indulge: Giving people permission to enjoy an
indulgent snack is one of the most 
effective marketing strategies.
• Make it premium: Even mass-market consumers will pay a premium
for a good-tasting snack, so why not focus on a premium market and get
more money for your efforts?

SNACKIFICATION CONNECTS TO 7 OTHER KEY TRENDS

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

Snackification & convenience is a been almost unimaginable five or 10

powerful driver of opportunity, growth years ago – and they are willing to pay
and better margins in every single a premium for them if they taste good.
category. It’s a trend that underpins Snackification is seeing established,
many other trends. It is almost impossible inconvenient-to-eat commodities
to understand the Protein and Plant- reinvented as something exciting,
based trends (Key Trends 2 & 3)without portable and contemporary, for example,
appreciating that the most successful ready-to-eat mini beetroots, or cheese
“Today, such is protein and plant-based products are also mixed with nuts in on-the-go formats.
the ones that focus on convenience and So important is consumers’ need for
the degree to which
snackification. ready-to-eat, single-serve product formats
snacking is becoming A focus on snacking is now at the – from snacks to mini-meals – that also
part of people’s centre of consumer preferences. People taste good and nod to health that there is
can buy snack types that would have no limit to creative NPD.
everyday eating
habits, whatever food
Small but premium
commodity you are
Snack brands tend to be smaller now Even in the mass market people are
in, you need to have a
than in the past. All categories are willing to pay a premium price for a
snacking variant.” splintering as consumer beliefs about good-tasting snack that they believe
health fragment and markets fragment supports their wellness. Mondelez is a
– Professor David Hughes, Emeritus
Professor of Food Marketing, Imperial (see Key Trend 6). There are always company which firmly targets the high-
College London emerging sub-segments
and ever-more- volume mass-market, and yet it markets
finely targeted products. These are all its snacks at premium prices, not a low
lower-volume opportunities, but they mass price.
come a higher price points.

No limits to product development

From fermented dairy to meat jerky, ago. And consumers are now far more
salads to cookies, bites and balls – in willing to adopt into their lives foods and
every segment there’s a proliferation of flavours that would have seemed strange
products intended to deliver on snacking to their grandparents.
and the mini-meal for one. So there should be no limits on
A wealth of innovations in ingredients formats and ingredients. Product
and processing means consumers are developers should consider almost
increasingly presented with snack anything that can deliver a good-tasting,
product formats and ingredients that healthy snack – as the following examples
would have been unimaginable five years show.

BOX 49: MILLENNIALS WANT EASY ANSWERS

Convenience is more important to Millennials than to other age groups, according to
the USDA. Millennials spend the largest percentage of their food budgets in categories
containing a lot of ready-to-eat foods. “Millennials are looking for solutions that provide
produce and nutrition without all the work,” says Chris Pruneda, chief marketing officer of
The concept of meals for one in a single pot – or Cece’s Veggie Noodle Co., a pioneer of fresh vegetable noodles that has just launched
pouch – is transforming breakfast in food service ready meals. “Essentially [we sell] produce with the work taken out of it. Which is why I think
chains including Pret a Manger and “naturally fast
food” chain Leon. “Snackifying” breakfast has grown we definitely seem to connect with and appeal to Millennials in a big way.” Of course,
beyond porridge pots to include protein such as eggs, convenience often means additional packaging. “It’s an interesting dichotomy about
bacon and mushrooms in a grab-and-go format for
the on-the-go eater. Leon sells a wide range of hot Millennials wanting convenience... packaging obviously plays into that,” says Ashley Nickle,
breakfast in pots while Pret’s veggie lunchtime pots staff writer for The Packer. “But then we hear a lot of Millennial consumers saying they want
offer protein, or ‘good grains’ or 100% plant-based
options. less plastic and that sort of thing. Those are two competing forces.”

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

In Australia, lifestyles. The aim was to create a high- are a premium opportunity in the
Forbidden Food protein snack with simple ingredients: west and also have potentially good
had been selling “I wanted something that sits at the environmental credentials by using
a wide variety of intersection of being absolutely delicious, by-catch and waste product from fish
types of rice in made without compromise in ingredients processing.
500g bags. But in and very convenient,” said Peckish co- As Nick Mendoza, founder of fish
2017 it debuted founder Chelsea Bialla. “At home, I often jerky start-up One for Neptune explains,
RTE products, used eggs as the base for many foods, “dealing with
sold in 125g shelf-stable, microwaveable but the quality of meals I could make bycatch is a big
pouches, for lunch or breakfast One is a in my home kitchen weren’t available or global problem.”
blend of black rice and quinoa intended suitable for on-the-go.” The former marine
as a side dish for lunch or dinner, and scientist is selling
one is a rice pudding made with black Soup is another traditional category his fish-based
rice and coconut cream intended for that companies are trying to reinvent snacks online.
breakfast. The products are sold in 1,500 with on-the-go single-serve products. The product
supermarkets and foodservice outlets In the US, Zupa Noma offers “ready to is made with
across Australia and New Zealand. sip” chilled soup in a 355ml bottle, with yellowtail rockfish, which has a thriving
flavours including Kale Avocado and population but no consumer market.
Eggs rebooted as easy protein: Yellow Pepper Turmeric. In Sweden, “We can get a great price and prevent
Eggs are another good example of Kelda – a soup business owned by Arla these fish from being used as waste or
how a traditional commodity can be Foods, one of Europe’s biggest dairy fertilizer or ‘bycatch’, which is when fish
reinvented as something ultraconvenient companies – entered the snacking get dumped back into the sea dead,”
and a perfect meal for one, such as market for the first time with its Go Soup explained Mendoza.
Kraft Heinz’ Just Crack an Egg range of range of cold RTD soups that combine Like any good food business, One for
four “scrambles” in 85g single-serving vegetables with fruit, yoghurt and spices. Neptune doesn’t rely on people buying
packages, to which consumers simply add Made using HPP, Go Soup retails in the product because they feel virtuous
a fresh egg and microwave the pot. 250ml bottles, Flavours include: Carrot, about helping with the waste problem.
Described as “one of the biggest bets mango, ginger, lemon and chili and Mendoza has emphasized good taste and
across Kraft Heinz,” Just Crack an Egg Cucumber, avocado, the product enjoys positive nutritional
transforms an mint, spinach and positioning, each serving of One For
inconvenient spirulina. Neptune fish jerky providing 20g of
food. “It can The Go Soup protein per serving, as well as ample
be tough to label promotes it as omega-3s.
prepare eggs “a smart snack when
before going out you are on the go and Fruit snacks too offer a great vehicle
the door in the refuse to compromise” for using up by-product and waste
morning,” said a spokesperson. “We feel and advertising and streams – and giving brands a clearly
we’ve bridged that divide and are helping promotion targets virtuous positioning.
consumers reclaim their love of breakfast consumers leading Matt Weiss’s “Skin-
on a daily basis.” an active lifestyle. On Superfruit Snacks”,
Convenient eggs Go Soup is retailed called Rind, offer fruit
are also the basis of in convenience pieces with the skins and
new brand Peckish, store chains across rinds still on. “It was a
a new snack brand Sweden, at petrol stations and in some big opportunity to take
from Sonoma, which mainstream supermarkets. the taste profile of dried fruit – which has
pairs two organic, been the domain of raisins and prunes
free-range eggs with Meat and fish snacks: Despite and apricots – and make it interesting
a variety of dry, some negative media attention to meat, and sexy, and use taste profiles that are
crunchy dips that fit meat snacks are thriving – and they’ve more tangy and bittersweet,” Weiss said.
paleo, keto, Whole30 gained competition this year from fish Weiss saw “this category of dried fruit
and gluten-free snacks. Already big in Asia, fish snacks as ripe for some disruption because it is

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

very staid. Dried fruit and snack mixes BOX 50: ARLA’S KESO CHEESE SNACK POTS
are a $2-billion industry (€1.75 billion)
in the US, and for other companies, Arla, Europe’s 10th-biggest dairy group, launched its first cottage cheese in 1958 under the
the peel seems to be an afterthought. brand name Keso (from the Spanish word for cheese). In 2011 the Keso range was extended
If there is any peel left on the fruit, it’s to include “Keso Mellanmål” = “Keso Snacks”. This product line includes pots of cottage
unintentional. And if anything, the large cheese with 25g of nuts, seeds and fruit in the lid. The product comes with a spoon in the lid.
players in the space are ripping away Arla Keso is marketed as a source of protein and healthy energy that can be used to power
the greatest concentration of nutrition a workout session, or just your everyday life.
in the fruit and adding lots of against-
trend additives, such as sulfur dioxide as One 150g pot of Arla Keso Mellanmål contains:
a preservative, or sugar in candied fruit.
That makes it less of a natural product
and overly sweet, or sickly sweet.” Ingredients: Pasteurised milk, salt,
whey permeate, modified starch,
preservatives, starter culture, rennet.
Nut butters packaged for easier
eating: Driven by the Protein trend (see In the lid: Roasted cashew nuts 50%,
dried pineapple 17%, dried orange
Key Trend 3), nut butters have enjoyed
peel 17%, dried papaya 16%.
an uplift in business in recent years. A
number of players are using convenience
to grow the category by moving away
from the traditional bulk sales in family-
size glass jars. ”Until you get hungry
The start-up Yumbutter brand, for again. For more
good energy.
example, accelerated its sales, getting So that you can
exercise again.
the line into 6,000 stores and allowing And get hungry –
again.”
the company to move into its own
67,000-square-foot processing plant, by
using a pouch. Founder Matt D’Amour
wanted Yumbutter in
a pouch that would be
more portable, and also
resealable for multiple
uses. “A lot of people CHART 31: COMPARED TO OTHER DAIRY-BASED SNACK POTS,
KESO SNACK POTS ARE PREMIUM PRICED
are shifting their eating
to more snacking,”
D’Amour explained,
“so they’re carrying their food with them
more and more and not leaving things up
to chance. Nuts and nut butters are very
popular with these people.”
So D’Amour designed a completely
new pouch with the closure placed on
the side, rather than on the top. His
pouch also includes a larger opening
than pouches for fruit purees because nut
butters are more viscous.
“It’s nothing incredibly fancy, but
it didn’t exist in the nut-butter space,”
D’Amour said. “It’s portable. It’s
functional. It doesn’t break; it’s not a
glass jar. You don’t have to pack multiple

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

single-serves and it doesn’t need to be Go snack cups, it’s easy for people to try
refrigerated after opening. It can live on a – and it won’t cost them much.
desk or in a gym bag. It basically can be a Purely Pinole has distribution on
life companion.” both the West and East coasts of
the US, and expects sales to triple in
If you want to launch a strange 2018 as it launches more pinole-based
new food, make it a snack. Pinole products. The snack cups come in four
(pronounced pih-nole), is a nutrient- flavours (Brown Sugar and Cinnamon,
rich food that combines purple maize, Chocolate Mocha, Maqui Berry +
cacao and cinnamon. A staple in the Coconut + Almond, and Berry Boost)
diet of the ancient Aztec people, for the and with a suggested retail price of
modern consumer it’s completely new $10.00 (€8.65) for a four pack.
and different. But available in Grab and

Experimenting with new routes to consumers

Not only does snacking give scope Danone was part of a group manager of Danone Manifesto Ventures,
for unlimited experimentation with which recently investing $10 million told New Nutrition Business. “Buying a
products types and ingredients, the small (€8.5 million) in the company. “We fresh salad or a yogurt parfait from a
packs and low cost of purchase – often chose Farmer’s Fridge as our first US connected fridge is a great new consumer
impulse-driven – opens the door to a investment because of their ambition experience, fun and convenient,
wide range of distribution channels to invent with technology a new way and through our investment and
beyond the traditional supermarket, to make healthy food accessible and collaboration we will learn a lot from it.”
from convenience stores to airport shops, contemporary,” Laurent Marcel, general
cafes and coffee shops and e-commerce.
The Graze brand (see box) is one BOX 51: GRAZE LAUNCHED IN E-COMMERCE AND LATER MOVED
example of a snack brand which began TO RETAIL
in e-commerce channels only and later
Graze started out in 2007 as an internet-
moved to mainstream retail.
based company that offered a subscription
Vending machines are also a useful service of healthy snacks sent by post.
channel for new snack brands looking
for incremental volume and there are In 2015 the brand started offering one-
off orders on its website, and became
a growing number of opportunities
available in UK retailers such as
in ‘healthy vending’. Chicago-based Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Boots.
Farmer’s Fridge, for example has This proved to be a successful
achieved over $10 million (€8.5 million) move: Graze had annual sales
in annual revenues in just four years of over £70 million in 2018 and
in business by putting its refrigerated has expanded to the
vending machines throughout metro US.
Chicago and beyond. They’re kept Graze today offers
freshly stocked using an Internet of over 400 premium-
Things network. priced snack products
ranging from protein
balls and flapjacks to
nut blends and meat
snacks.

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

BOX 52: SNACK SIZES GIVE PERMISSION TO INDULGE

A product that gives people permission to

enjoy themselves and feel good about their
choices is one that they will reward you for.
An example of this is Oreo Thins, which
became an immediate hit, with US sales
exceeding $110 million and the product
becoming the 4th most successful new
product launch in the US. This despite selling
at a 35% premium to regular Oreos.
As the name suggests, Oreo Thins are a
smaller, lighter, thinner version of an Oreo, so
people feel they are indulging - but believe
they’re eating less than with a full Oreo
cookie. Its first savoury snack brand in over 10 years,
Mondelez launched Good Thins in 2016. The Oreoisisthe
Oreo the UK’s
UK’s fastest
fastestgrowing
growing
The indulgence isn’t less – but the thinner thin, crispy crackers became the number 1 snack biscuit brand, with sales increasing
biscuit
brand in the US in their first year, with sales of 8%brand,
in 2017.with sales
Its Oreo Thins
product makes it seem that way. $79m (£59m).
increasing
innovation, 8% in 2017.
launched Its Oreo
in December
Thins
2016,innovation,
is said to be thelaunched in
main reason
December 2016, is said to be
for the brand’s success.
the main reason for the brand’s
success.
CHART 32: SAME PRODUCT, LESS OF IT – BUT AT A HIGHER PRICE

McVitie’s now
McVitie’s nowoffers
offersstar
starproduct
product
Digestives ininaathinner
Digestives version,
thinner and
version,
in a bite size version. The nibbles
and in a bite size version. The
and the thins both achieved sales of
nibbles
£17m andfirst
in their theyear
thinsonboth
the market
achieved
(2016 and sales
2017 ofrespectively).
£17m in their
first year on the market (2016
and 2017 respectively).

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

Rice and noodles harness the power of convenience

Two of the best examples of how the – in the hands of upstart brands. In Mars-owned Uncle Bens has retained
millennial love of the packaged ‘mini- 2018 it created a new brand alongside its lead in single-serve instant rice
meal for one’ can transform even its existing market-leading brand, the pouches, growing sales by 2.2% in
commodity categories are rice and mass-market Pot Noodle, targeting 2018 and adding new varieties such as:
noodles. In the UK market, while sale health-aware consumers. Called PrepCo, Roasted Garlic, 5 Wholegrain Pilau
of potatoes are falling, rice & noodles in packaging, ingredients, flavours and Rice, Wholegrain Wild Rice with Beans.
are growing, with sales up by 6.2% in marketing, it looks and feels exactly like Uncle Ben’s has also launched its first
2018 to £550.4m ($714 million/€622.7 a start-up challenger brand. It describes rice pots – microwaveable 125g pots such
million), bringing total growth in 2014- itself as: “A one-pot…..lunch that’s delicious, as Vegetable Medley, Mexican and Egg
18 to 30%. made with natural ingredients, and ready in Fried Rice.
Among Millennials, rice and noodles 5 minutes. So no need to panic if you have a
are seen as a ‘better carb’ (see Key Trend ‘working lunch’ – PrepCo is ready and waiting.”
5) than potatoes – and, thanks to new The brand uses only all-natural
product development, more convenient. ingredients with no artificial colours,
Ready-to-heat-and-eat pouches and flavours or preservatives and each pot
pots are driving category growth in also delivers one of the recommended
volume and value. The £216 million ‘five a day’ of vegetables. Each pot
($280 million/€244 million) pouch delivers between 6g and 12g of plant
rice category was up by 7.6% in 2018. protein – important to many health-
Chilled flavoured rice was up 9.9% and conscious urban consumers – and most
flavoured noodles 4.2%. ingredients are flagged as being “from
Brands are prospering by: sustainable agriculture”. PrepCo comes
• offering flavours and combinations in four “globally-inspired” flavours:
that were unknown five years ago, • Mediterranean Couscous
such as lime and coriander or • Thai Green Curry
chilli and coconut • Indian Spiced Lentils
• connecting to provenance (Key • Mexican Chilli Rice
Trend 10) and consumers’ desire
for authenticity by offering specific
varieties such as red rice, sushi rice
and black rice, Egyptian, Turkish
and others
• offering only mini-meal formats,
like 63g noodle pots from the Itsu
brand (which grew out of the
Japanese-style Itsu quick-serve
restaurant chain, founded and
owned by the creator of the Pret
a Manger chain) for “Whether BOX 53: NATURAL TRUMPS HEAVY NUTRITION
you’re looking for a quick and
healthy supper or a snack to grab Too much heavy nutrition can be a turn-off in snacking.
and go at lunchtime” In the UK, snack brand Nutripot – which has a strong
health focus, offering 20g of protein and 50% of the RDA
And “Big Food” is showing it too can of key vitamins and minerals – has struggled to get listings
move fast and innovate. despite a relaunch.
As the UK market leader in instant Products that are naturally healthy are more appealing to
noodle-pot mini-meals, Unilever clearly more people. They want a snack that tastes good first, is
doesn’t intend to leave the reinvention of also filling, and finally is something they can eat without
the category – growing at 20% annually guilt.

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

BOX 54: SNACKIFICATION AND CONVENIENCE STRATEGY

Whatever category you are in, if creating premium snacks isn’t in your company’s strategy
plan, then go away and re-write it. And while you’re doing that, keep in mind the following
factors:
1. What’s old is made new again
2. Be unashamedly premium
3. Successful snack brands will be smaller
4. Permission to indulge
5. Any and every category can be a snack
6. No limits on new product development

BABYBEL – REINVENTING AN OLD BRAND WITH

SNACKIFICATION

BOX 55: GREEK YOGHURT GAME-CHANGER FINDS SUCCESS WITH SNACKING

In just five years on the market, Chobani’s snack-style yoghurt Flip has become about one-third of
Chobani’s overall trade, meaning it’s at least a $600-million (€519 million) brand for a company with an
estimated $2 billion (€1.7 billion) share of the US yoghurt market.
Chobani revolutionized the US yoghurt market with Greek-style yoghurts. Now Chobani is turning things
upside-down again with the “mix-in” line that has helped Chobani
keep growing even as Americans’ overall interest in Greek yoghurt
has leveled off.
Flips allows consumers to “flip” a compartment of mix-ins – ranging
from dark-chocolate chips to apple pieces – into a sweet-flavoured
Greek yoghurt to create something that works for any time, from
breakfast to a mid-afternoon snack to evening dessert.
Flip has helped to broaden Americans’ appetite for
yoghurt beyond its traditional narrow foothold on
breakfast and maybe light lunch.
“Five years ago, about 90% of the yoghurt in America
was consumed before noon,” Peter McGuinness, chief
marketing officer for Chobani, told New Nutrition
Business. “That number is below 80% now because of
products like Flip. People are eating them as snacks.
So we’ve expanded the yoghurt day part.”

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Snackification

SNACKIFICATION
CHART 33: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 7, SNACKIFICATION
Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 34: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 7, SNACKIFICATION

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET
CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

One 150g pot of Arla Keso Mellanmål contains:

Ingredients: Pasteurised milk, salt,

whey permeate, modified starch,
preservatives, starter culture, rennet.

In the lid: Roasted cashew nuts 50%,

dried pineapple 17%, dried orange
peel 17%, dried papaya 16%.

SALES

Oreo is the UK’s fastest growing

biscuit brand, with sales increasing
8% in 2017. Its Oreo Thins
innovation, launched in December
2016, is said to be the main reason
for the brand’s success.
McVitie’s now offers star product
Digestives in a thinner version, and
in a bite size version. The nibbles
and the thins both achieved sales of
£17m in their first year on the market
(2016 and 2017 respectively).

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

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 Key trenD 8
BEVERAGES
REDEFINED
A FLOW OF FRESH IDEAS
Risk and opportunity in beverages is higher than ever.
Change is rapid and consumers' concerns about sugar
continue to dominate.
New
Consumers want ingredients &
to experiment flavours
Beverage aisles
are increasingly 
fragmented; it is a
market of niches.
The days of the $1
billion - or even
$100 million -
beverage
New product brands may be
over!  Sugar
concepts concerns

WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES?

ALCOHOL - FREE COFFEE KOMBUCHA
The alcohol-free market is a The "energy drink" for adults is Kombucha is a fermented drink with
global growing trend fuelled taking a leading place in the few barriers to entry and already an
mostly by Millennials' health strategy of more companies, established niche in the US, but still
motivations. particularly RTD coffee drinks. emerging in other markets.

73%
La Colombe coffee RTDs
are made with lactose-free Digestive Wellness is
milk or coconut milk and a key health concern
cold-pressed espresso. It's for consumers
now a $30m brand in the everywhere - it will
US. keep fueling the
Of Millennials admit to be trying growth of fermented
to reduce their alcohol intake. Bigger players like Nestle drinks, from
are also investing in the kombucha to kefir.
But only 49% of consumers aged >69 say the same.
format.

BUT... other categories are showing signs of stalling or even failing.

Smoothies & fruit juices sugar concerns overshadowing benefits like
vitamins, fibre or even protein!
Plant waters except for coconut water, other plant waters have failed to
© New Nutrition Business 2018 create92
a point of difference and get consumer acceptance.
www.new-nutrition.com
 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

Key Trend 8:
Beverages redefined – a flow of
fresh ideas
SUMMARY
• Beverage categories are undergoing massive redefinition
around the world: With a proliferation of brands and products,
consumers have more choice than ever before. We’re at the beginning of
a period defined by experimentation and fragmentation, with people and
companies willing to try new ideas to an unprecedented extent.
• Sugar fears driving innovation: With consumers increasingly
rejecting sugar, it’s forcing developers to be more creative in how they
make beverages taste acceptable.
• The surge of interest in beverages such as kombucha, or those with
ingredients derived from cannabis, or alkaline waters and botanicals are
all signs of this explosion of innovation.
• Coffee is getting a new lease of life as a natural energy drink with
a wealth of new types of consumption.
• Alcohol-free drinks are exploding, powered by younger consumers.
• However fragmented the aisle becomes, it’s the big beverage companies
that continue to dominate and innovate – examples include Nestlé’s
Azera Nitro and PepsiCo’s Drinkfinity.

BEVERAGES REDEFINED CONNECTS WITH 6 OTHER KEY TRENDS

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

Natural refreshment, hydration, big player – ideally a Coke or Pepsi – as brands may be over. As in many other
less sugar and consumers’ restless many already have. categories, beverage companies will find
experiments with taste and ingredients The big players have learned to keep themselves curating a large portfolio
are all helping drive an increasingly separate the identities of the brands they of brands – some their own creations,
fragmented beverage market-place. buy, such as Coca-Cola’s acquisition some acquired (including small brands in
There’s an unending flood of new of Innocent and Pepsico’s of Naked. which they have an investment stake but
product concepts – waters with While the beverage aisle will display a no control), some mass, but many more
botanicals or cannabis, low PH water, proliferation of brands, the ownership niche and premium.
RTD coffee drinks, plant waters, will remain much as it is today. The titans
smoothies with charcoal, matcha or of the business are still controlling it, to
protein and tens of others – competing a great degree, despite major and even
for consumers’ attention. As NNB said game-changing incursions by one start-
back in 2016: “New opportunities lie in a up after another.
flourishing world of healthy niches”. “You can’t discount the power of those
The beverage business is now in Year 6 who make the market in the beverage
BOX 56: BIG NICHE THE PATH
of a period that can be summarized as: industry at retail,” says Tom Pirko, TO SUCCESS FOR SAVVY
• Experimentation president of Bevmark International, and BRANDS?
• Fragmentation a beverage industry expert.
• Domination “They still have the resources to Pom Wonderful was the brand that always
command and everyone else has to did everything right: distinctive packaging,
bold marketing, great merchandising.
Beverage aisles are undergoing a follow or try to compete against them
massive redefinition around the world, and break the mould. And no one  As fashions have changed the brand has
the proliferation of new products and can do that, either, without looking had its ups and downs. But its identity is
new brands presenting people with ever very carefully at what the dominant helping it beat consumers’ ebbing interest in
fruit juices and competition from an endless
more choices. companies are doing.” Thus, he said, it’s
array of new players and new products.
Consumers are willing to be still “hard to find companies that don’t
experimental and try new flavours have an extremely high sense of risk The distinctive and pioneering pomegranate
and ingredients to an extent that was in this market, and even getting angel juice beverage posted a 9.8% increase
in sales in US supermarkets to $137
unthinkable 10 years ago. Beverages are investment is extremely difficult.”
million (€120 million), for the 52 weeks to
increasingly about fashion – flavours and And thanks to their technical skills, September 2018, according to IRI.
ingredients come in and out of favour as production know-how, distribution skills
Pom Wonderful succeeds by appealing
much as clothes do. Pomegranate brands and marketing muscle, “Big Beverage”
to a niche of Americans – but one that has
such as Pom Wonderful for example, companies are competing, by producing
doubled, to about 6% of the population from
came to market in 2001 on a surge of bold moves of their own. Examples of 3% in 2013.
consumer enthusiasm – which died away, how “big beverage’ is innovating and
The brand pours a lot of resources into digital
leaving Pom operating as a big niche keeping up with the trends include:
marketing, including working with bloggers
brand. • PepsiCo’s introduction of its and other social-media influencers as well as
Fuelled by this fragmentation, new Drinkfinity pod-based beverage traditional advertising media, especially TV.
beverages are coming from hundreds format in South America, the US,
– perhaps thousands – of start-ups. Of the UK and Sweden (see Box 58)
these, 1% or 2% will become big success • Nestle’s launch of Nescafé Azera
stories, 50% will create a niche business, Nitro, a nitrogen-infused coffee
and the remaining 48% will struggle drink, sold in 192ml cans in
along and eventually disappear (usually variants with and without milk,
because of poor taste performance, lack retailed in convenience stores,
of a worthwhile point of difference and/ foods service, bars and clubs (see
or inability to get distribution). Box 62)
But if you think this is all about start-
ups, think again. The owners of all those Risk in beverages is higher than ever
cute independent brands have one aim and change is rapid. The days of billion
which is, sooner or later, to sell out to a dollar – or even $100 million – beverage

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

Where are the opportunities?

The beverage business has settled into water segment with nearly 30% market The quest for differentiation in the
a number of parallel dynamics that are share and $400 million (€348 million) in crowded water category is creating ever
creating challenges and opportunities. sales. more fine segments, a few of which have
The following section explores these PepsiCo has been aggressive with its the potential to be big, such as:
dynamics, ranked by opportunity, from 2017 introduction of the Bubly brand Cannabis water. A nascent category,
the highest to the lowest: of packaged sparkling water and its it offers a major opportunity in the US
acquisition of SodaStream, maker of where a proliferation of sparkling waters
1. WATER tabletop sparkling beverages from pods. laced with cannabidiol (known as CBD)
Water is the ultimate in ‘naturally One way in which sparkling waters and even the psychoactive compound,
healthy’ – connected to better physical have deviated from still-water brands is THC, are riding the twin trends of
and mental well-being in consumers’ that they’ve managed to establish and growth in the sparkling segment and
minds, crucial for hydration, it’s the thing maintain a premium stature. increasing legalization and social
we have been told since the 1990s we The issue for regular water is acceptance of marijuana use.
need eight glasses of a day (an assertion downward pressure on pricing, and it’s Brands include Mountjoy Sparkling,
not backed by science). Water remains a tougher and tougher to differentiate. In a infused with
big growth opportunity, particularly for bid to get better pricing, “regular’ waters CBD and THC
anyone who can find a way to add value are making more use of provenance extracts, and
– whether that’s with cannabis or low PH claims (see Key Trend 10). For example: Pearl 2-0, a
or provenance. • Kona Deep is a super-premium- milky water
Bottled still waters and various priced drink from a public source and “creative
forms of “sparkling” waters are the off the coast of the cannabis mixer”
brightest performers in the beverage Hawaiian island of Kona, with THC.
industry. While bottled water overall “is in “pristine deep ocean CBD Living has
experiencing healthy growth,” noted waters” and “far from 12 products with
Gary Hemphill, managing director light and civilization” CBD, including
of research for Beverage Marketing, according to the brand’s gummies and a
“sparkling water is on fire [and] is website. Danone’s chocolate bar, but
growing the fastest” of any water Manifesto Ventures has CBD Living Water
segment. invested in the brand with is its top product by
Growth of flavoured sparkling an undisclosed sum. Kona sales. “Water just
water, including both sweetened and earns a 50% premium made sense as our
unsweetened products, has outpaced the over other natural spring water first product because water is the most
bottled water category during the last five brands. consumable beverage by everyone,”
years, rising by a CAGR of 23% during • Danone launched its Aoraki executive Sean McDonald told New
the five years ended in 2017, compared spring water brand, sourced from Nutrition Business. “It delivers hydration as
with 7.8% growth for the total bottled “clean, green” New Zealand, well as the benefits of CBD. We worked
water category, according to Beverage in Shanghai in 2017. It retails for more than three years perfecting the
Digest. at a premium price of proprietary formulation to make sure it’s
The initial major reason for the $2.45 (€2.10) per litre and the best on the market, and it fits into
growth of sparkling water was clear: is promoted for provenance all markets, with a demand from all ages
consumers moved into the category from and its health benefits. worldwide. It’s the best way to get CBD
soda as they turned away from the sugar Aoraki is an upmarket to the masses.”
and artificial sweeteners in carbonated label that appeals to the Besides 25mg of CBD, the water
soft drinks and shifted their interest in increasing number of health- contains d-Ribose, which the company
carbonation to sparkling waters. conscious, conscientious said assists in fatigue recovery and in
There – almost alone – to take and sophisticated Chinese mitigating heart disease, as well as
advantage of growing mainstream shoppers that tend to vitamin B12, for support of metabolism,
interest in the category was LaCroix, consider high-end brands to nerve, and brain-cell health, and Co-
which still leads the sparkling flavoured- be healthier. Q10, the enzyme and antioxidant. It

© New Nutrition Business 2018 95 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

is clear, odourless and tasteless with no

BOX 57: ALKALINE88 – MORE THAN A FAD?
added chemicals. The product retails
for a suggested price of $4.99 (€4.30) to Like many other regimens, alkaline diets have made a big splash thanks to celebrity
$8.00 (€6.89) per 16.9oz (480ml) bottle. endorsements. Richard Wright is experienced enough as an entrepreneur not to build a
CBD Living also is considering adding business on a fad, but he believes the science and the social acceptance of alkaline water
flavours or making a sparkling water. are sound enough that his Alkaline88 brand is a good bet for growth.
Alkaline water. Easy to dismiss After only four years, Alkaline88 became a $20-million-a-year brand (€17 million) sold in
as weird, fashionable and more like more than 31,000 stores in all 50 states of the US. Alkaline88 has a pH level of 8.8. It retails
something that Gwyneth Paltrow would for a suggested $4.99 (€4.34) for one gallon (3.8 litres) and $3.99 (€3.47) for a three-litre
recommend than a drink that has any bottle.
scientific basis for a health benefit, Wright’s goal was both to leverage rising interest in alkaline-based diets – claimed help lose
alkaline water confounds its critics by weight and avoid problems such as arthritis, although the brand makes no health claims –
continuing to grow, creating a whole and to lead with taste, distribution and branding.
new niche. In the UK, for example, the “We did all our studies and
ActiPH brand, Europe’s first alkaline surveys on shoppers who
water, in 2018 achieved over were females between the
$1.5 million (€1.3 million) ages of 30 and 50, and we
decided that we were going
in first-year retail sales. “It
to go to grocery channels
took us seven months to sell
– and that’s where we’ve
the first 100,000 bottles and hit it,” Wright said. His initial
less than three months to sell targets were mainstream
the next 150,000,” explained chains such as Kroger, Frye’s,
founder and CEO Jamie and Ralph’s, across the US,
Douglas-Hamilton. as well as certain regions of
Whole Foods Markets.

BOX 58: DRINKFINITY – BIG BEVERAGE SHOWS IT TOO CAN INNOVATE

PepsiCo launched its Drinkfinity “system” in the US, UK, Sweden and Coconut Water, Mango Oats Flow and others. The Blackberry
and elsewhere, following a successful test-market in Brazil. For a Acai variety, once added to water, delivers 7.7g of sugars per
company that’s often accused of being among the stodgy thinkers 250ml as well as 20% of the RDI of each of vitamins B3, B5, B6,
of “Big Food” it’s a radical concept, offering refreshment with B12, biotin and folic acid.
sustainability, social responsibility, nutrition, “honest ingredients” and
Customization is a big part of the Drinkfinity proposition, as PepsiCo
personalisation. It’s also the first time PepsiCo has brought to market
appeals to consumers’ personalisation urge that began with
an ecommerce-only brand.
Starbucks baristas and lately has relied on packaging innovations.
The Drinkfinity system includes:
The concept was born in PepsiCo Latin America back in 2010 and
• a BPA-free reusable bottle that’s impact resistant, fits a car cup- it is the result of efforts to foster innovation among employees. A
holder and is easy to clean. radical departure from the traditional way PepsiCo did things, the
system enables the brand to change formulas, flavours and blends
• Water-enhancer flavour pods to add to water in the bottle.
fast, to adapt to changing consumer preferences.
Each pod contains ingredients that consumers can mix with
water to create customized, better-for-you beverages. The Drinkfinity business was designed to embrace the best of how
a start-up operates, PepsiCo executives said in a media interview,
Drinkfinity
running independently from the rest of PepsiCo and working in a
pods include
separate office, with minimal reference to the PepsiCo parent.
flavours
such as Drinkfinity aims to tap into the market for health-conscious millennials
Blackberry willing to pay $39 (€34) for 16 pods and a water bottle, and
Acai thereafter $8.55 (€7.30) for subsequent packs of four pods.
Charge, Consumers buy the pods on the Drinkfinity.com website.
Mandarin
An e-commerce focus, PepsiCo says, enables it to establish a
Orange
one-on-one connection with people that it hopes will give it better
Charge,
insights into their preferences and beliefs.
Pineapple

© New Nutrition Business 2018 96 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

INGREDIENT CALLOUT: ROSEMARY

Antioxidant-rich rosemary has garnered a lot of attention in recent years, with headlines boasting about its potential benefits for memory
and longevity, among others – but suppliers say its most important characteristic for food and drink is still as a highly effective natural
preservative.
Rosemary extracts can be used to prevent rancidity in oils and fats – including in dietary supplements like fish oils – as well as in beverages
to protect colour and taste, and in baked goods and snacks.
In 2017, UK health store Holland & Barrett said sales of its rosemary essential oil rocketed 187% after a small
study found students performed better in memory tests after spending time in a rosemary-scented room.
• Launches of food and beverages with rosemary as an ingredient are increasing globally.
Food products launches with rosemary increased 30% between 2014 and 2017,
whereas for drinks the increase was 79%.
• The most active region is Europe, particularly Germany, France and the UK, followed
by Asia Pacific.
• Most common format is hot drinks (teas), followed by juices and meal replacements drinks.

CHART 35: BEVERAGE LAUNCHES WITH ROSEMARY AS

AN INGREDIENT WORLDWIDE
100 93 EXAMPLES OF PRODUCTS CAPITALISING ON
90
76 76
ROSEMARY’S HEALTH CREDENTIALS
80
70 65
60 52 53
50
40 34
30 25
20 16

10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
*Up to August 2018, Source: GNPD Mintel
Indian juice brand The Rejoov Cold Pressery offers
a variety of cold-pressed juices with different health
CHART 36: BEVERAGE LAUNCHES WITH benefits, its Watermelon with Ginger & Rosemary
ROSEMARY BY CATEGORY, 2017–2018 (%) Juice is described as “raw and delicious 100% natural
juice, formulated by our own nutritionist to fight stress
naturally”.
Teas Juices
Meal replacements Carbonated soft drinks
Iced teas Mixes/ooncentrates
Flavoured water Energy drinks

Coca-Cola brand
Honest T has a
Peach & Rosemary
infused white tea RTD
available in France,
Spain and Portugal.

No 1 Rosemary Water is a premium-priced still or

sparkling mineral water with rosemary extract, that
does its best to connect to a cognitive health benefit.
The brand recently added nine new herbs to its drinks
range.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 97 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

2. ALCOHOL-FREE
One of the biggest growth
opportunities – and one in which there
are still gaps for new brands – is the
alcohol-free drinks market. It’s a global
trend that skews strongly to younger
consumers and should be of interest
to anyone who wants to grow their
Millennial market. NNB’s consumer
survey found that 73% of people aged
25-34 were trying to reduce their
alcohol consumption, for health reasons,
compared to 49% of those aged 65 or
older. Start-up Seedlip saw a 10-fold increase in sales of its alcohol-free spirit, designed to replace gin in cocktails.
And in 2018 it announced the launch of Nolo by Seedlip, a bar concept that will roll out to 16 major cities
Growth is being driven by both an including London, Hong Kong and Sydney.
improvement in the taste and offer of
no-alcohol beverages (beers, wines,
spirits) and consumers’ concerns over
CHART 37: ARE YOU TRYING TO REDUCE YOUR ALCOHOL INTAKE?
alcohol’s impact on health and weight
management in particular.
In the UK, 20.4% of adults now say
that they do not drink alcohol at all and
58% of adults in England claim not to
drink alcohol on a regular basis. This is a
change of -7% compared to 2007.
In 2017, the UK held its first ever
alcohol-free drinks festival, The
Mindful Drinking Festival. The event
featured craft beers, wines and non-
alcoholic ‘spirits’ all served up by expert
mixologists. The event was again held in
2018 in association with Heineken and
sponsored by Eisberg Alcohol-free wines,
Source: NNB consumer survey 2018
Fever-Tree drink mixers and Ceder’s.
The Tesco supermarket chain CHART 38: WHY ARE YOU TRYING TO REDUCE ALCOHOL?
introduced a choice of five wines with less
than 0.5% alcohol for Christmas 2017,
and says sales of low-alcohol wines have
more than doubled in 2018. Tesco stores
now have a section dedicated to low/no-
alcohol drinks as part of the bigger wine,
beer and spirits section. Tesco’s wine
expert was quoted in a media interview
as saying: “Consumption of alcohol in
the UK is down by 18% over the last
decade and we’re seeing more customers
looking for a quality wine-drinking
experience without the alcohol.”
An example of a brand building its
future in this powerful trend is Seedlip, a
UK-based start-up producing an alcohol- Source: NNB consumer survey 2018

© New Nutrition Business 2018 98 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

free spirit designed to be drunk instead

BOX 59: CHANGES IN LIFESTYLE ARE DRIVING THE ALCOHOL-
of gin in cocktails. Global alcoholic
drinks giant Diageo bought a stake in
FREE MARKET IN ASIA, WITH JAPAN LEADING THE WAY
Seedlip in 2016, its first investment in a
Japan’s beer sales have been declining for decades, while alcohol-free beer has performed
non-alcoholic drinks company in its 258- well since Kirin entered the market in 2009. Factors driving demand include:
year history.
Ben Branson, who launched Seedlip • Japanese businessmen and executives regularly go out
for drinks after work, but health concerns and strict
in 2015, said in a media interview that
penalties for drunk driving are motivating them to
sales had increased tenfold in 2017, with
78%
look for alcohol-free beer alternatives – “these
stockists including Tesco and top cocktail people want something refreshing that doesn’t
bars such as American Bar at The Savoy get them drunk,” said Kirin president Takayuki of Japanese aged 55-64y are
hotel in London. In 2018 the company Fuse. either actively trying to consume
announced the launch of the first No & less alcohol or are already
• Alcohol addiction is receiving attention as a consuming in moderation.
Low Alcohol bar concept in 16 major social problem. Younger consumers prefer trendier
cities around the world (including drinks like cocktails or ciders, or non-alcoholic drinks
London, Barcelona, Amsterdam, like fruit-flavoured alcohol-free beer “sodas”.
Singapore, Hong Kong, Sydney and Los • Japanese consumers are eating-in more, Source: Global Data, Japanese Times,
Angeles). The Nolo by Seedlip bar will decreasing the number of occasions where social Nikkei Asian, Kirin
focus on a drink’s flavour rather than drinking happens. Beer brands are connecting to
alcohol content. this trend by advertising their no-alcohol beers as the perfect drinks to go with everyday
In Scandinavia, the small alcohol-free home-made meals.
beer market in Denmark has a volume
NON-ALCOHOLIC BEERS ARE GROWING IN ASIA, WHEREAS
of 3.2 million litres, a 300% increase
TRADITIONAL BEERS ARE DECLINING
over four years. Sales of alcohol-free
beverages in Sweden increased by 10.8% • In 2017 the non-alcoholic beer market in Japan was worth about $522m (€446m).
and in Norway by 25% in 2016. In • Launched in 2017, Kirin Zeroichi 0% alcohol beer sold out its initial annual target
Finland, despite a change in legislation in just two months, leading the company to
which made access to alcohol easier, sales boost production three-fold. The brand targets
of alcohol-free beer increased by 35% in younger consumers with “at home” consumption
occasions and young women who don’t want to
the first quarter of 2018.
compromise on taste but don’t want the calories
or alcoholic effects of traditional beers.
• Suntory is increasing its production of All
Suntory All-Free Alcohol-Free Free, another non-alcoholic brand.
Collagen Beer is made with
100% malt, 100% aroma • The upward trend is in contrast to declining
hops and natural water and
contains 2000mg collagen. It sales for regular beer in Japan. Domestic volumes
is free from alcohol, calories, fell by 3% in 2017.
sugar and purine.

CHART 39: ALCOHOL FREE BEVERAGE LAUNCHES IN JAPAN AND

Alcohol
CHINA, 2010free
TObeverage
2017 launches in Japan and China, 2010 to 2017
25
Japan
+566%
20 China

15
Sold in New Zealand and Australia, Lion’s Höpt
Soda brand is alcohol-free and taps into several 10
key trends. It has less than half the sugar of regular
soft drinks, no artificial ingredients, uses hop extracts
with provenance (“Select hops such as the fragrant 5
Columbus, Tomohawk and Zeus varieties”) and
comes in intriguing flavours including Salted Lychee.
Says Lion’s marketing: “Love a refreshing soft 0
drink but conscious of the sugar load and artificial 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ingredients? Find water unrewarding and not special
enough?” Source: GNPD Mintel, Global Data, Japanese Times, Nikkei Asian, Kirin
Source: GNPD Mintel, Global Data, Japanese Times, Nikkei Asian, Kirin

© New Nutrition Business 2018 99 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

3. COFFEE
Since the 17th century, coffee has been
the energy drink for adults (energy and
alertness were the benefits promoted for
coffee when it was first introduced in
Europe and America 400 years ago). It
was also marketed as the first ‘no-alcohol’
refreshment drink at a time when most
people started their day with beer and
continued with beer and wine up to
bedtime.
Safety reviews in Europe and the US
have found that caffeine has no health BOX 60: THE COFFEE INNOVATION THAT CLAIMS TO BE THE
concerns up to 400mg a day (equivalent FASTEST-GROWING
to four cups), and caffeine even got a
seal of approval from EFSA in Europe, Claiming to be the
which passed five health claim approvals fastest growing RTD
for caffeine – a move that reflects the coffee beverage
amount of science behind caffeine from in the US, La
Colombe’s Draft
a body that has rejected 90% of all
Latte – a cold,
health claim petitions. alcohol-free, frothy
Coffee is taking a leading place in milk-and-coffee
the strategy of more companies, as combination that
evidenced by Coca-Cola’s 2018 $5.2 resembles creamy
billion (€4.5 billion) purchase of the Guinness beer – is
Costa Coffee chain, which has more than made with lactose-free milk and cold-pressed espresso, with dairy-free options made with
2,400 UK coffee shops as well as some coconut milk. It’s “naturally sweet” with the addition of chicory root extract.
1,400 outlets worldwide. Costa Express In 2018, La Colombe announced that it had taken over 1% market share of the £3bn, RTD
has 8,237 vending machines worldwide. coffee beverage market in the US – giving it estimated sales of $30m in 2017.
Coca-Cola says it isn’t planning a shift
to bricks-and-mortar retail, but aims to
tap Costa’s supply chain. “We have to
continue to strengthen our core offering
through innovation, listening to the
consumer and adapting our recipes,”
said John Murphy, Asia-Pacific president
at Coca-Cola, in an interview with the
Financial Times.
Coca-Cola has an existing coffee
business in Japan and South Korea and
intends to use Costa to accelerate its
Asian business in RTD coffee. Coca-
Cola is also interested in Costa’s vending
machine formats, that are catered to
different store formats, as well as their
pod business.
The surge in RTD is also seen in
Néstle’s latest launch, Nescafé Nitro (see
Box 62), a chilled RTD coffee with an
appeal different from the classic energy
drink.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 100 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

And it’s not only giants. Family-owned

BOX 61: SWEDISH COFFEE ROASTER TARGETS “NEXT GEN
Swedish coffee group Löfbergs (see
COFFEE LOVERS”
Box 61) has transformed itself from a
traditional coffee roaster into a successful Realising that consumer habits are changing and that convenience is king, coffee roasters
supplier of RTD coffee+dairy beverages Löfbergs launched three new RTD concepts in the Swedish market in 2018, starting with ice
to Millennials, bringing coffee together coffee. A key aim was to appeal more to younger consumers, or ‘the next generation of
with other trends by, for example, adding coffee lovers’, as the family-owned company calls them. “We saw that the next generation
whey protein. of coffee drinkers, who are a key target market for us, don’t really drink coffee in the same
Chilled coffee is thriving in the US, way that we used to do. So we decided to try something new,” said category manager Fia
Söderbäck.
growing at least 10% annually between
2013-18. More than half (56%) of new Knowing that ‘natural’ is a word that appeals to many young and health-aware consumers,
RTD coffee launches in the US were the focus was on having as clean a label as possible. “We were keen to use only natural
ingredients, as we are very much focused on natural energy. And, of course, we wanted to
cold brew in 2017, up from 38% the
be 100% Fair Trade and organic,” said commercial director Björn Norén.
year prior. In the US, cold brew sales at
retail reached an estimated $38 million in Löfbergs saw a 40% increase in sales of its ice coffees in Sweden in August 2018,
2017, representing a single-year growth compared to 25% for the ice coffee category as a whole. And it has also launched three
types of RTD cold brew coffee, with the aim of reaching trend-aware ‘foodies’ who like to
of 137%.
experiment with new ideas. The cold brew products come in flavours such as liquorice and
It is younger consumers who – as
ginger.
Löfbergs pointed out – are leading the
shift from hot coffee to chilled RTDs. Löfbergs’ ice coffees have one crucial thing in common: They are ‘Instagrammable’. In
a world where social media is a key source of information for many, products that stand
Two-thirds (66%) of UK 18-24-year-
out and look nice in photos
old coffee drinkers say chilled coffee will generate interest from
is a good alternative to sugary drinks, the younger consumer base.
compared to a quarter (26%) of drinkers Realising this, the design of the
aged 45+. This echoes what is happening packaging was a focal point.
in America where younger drinkers, who “Our ice coffees are by far our
are less ingrained in the ritual of drinking most photographed products
coffee hot, have driven RTD coffee ever. People are proud to
take a picture of the product
growth. Some 68% of US 18-34-year-
in their hand, and publish this
olds currently consume single-serve RTD on Instagram,” said media
coffee (in bottles or cans), compared to relations manager Anders
43% of total US adults. Thorén.

BOX 62: NESTLÉ MAINSTREAMS “COOL” COFFEE

Nescafé Azera Nitro is a coffee drink
infused with nitrogen “for a smoother
taste”, launched in the UK and Ireland and
available in Americano or Latte flavours.
Made with coffee sourced through the
Nescafé Plan, “every serving of Nescafé
Azera Nitro helps to secure the future of
coffee”.
The drinks are sold in 192ml cans and
intended to be served chilled: “As you
start to drink, the benefits of the nitrogen
will truly come to life through a unique,
smoother and creamier tasting coffee.”
In addition to retail, Nescafé Azera
Nitro Americano will be available for the
catering and hospitality trades, pubs and
bars, cafés, and casual dining restaurants.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 101 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

4. KOMBUCHA successfully modernised and westernised California-based Clearly Kombucha.

The barriers to entry for kombucha, this lightly effervescent drink. And thanks There’s also a surge of activity in the
a fermented drink based on green to PepsiCo’s R&D, manufacturing and UK, where there are around 30 small
or black tea and which originated distribution know-how, KeVita has brands on the market. In fact kombucha
from China, are relatively low – two- become one of America’s fastest-growing may be on its way to mainstream
thirds of NNB staff are brewing it for beverage brands. acceptance among younger consumers
themselves at home. Little wonder it’s an Coca-Cola has also entered the sector, in some markets – it’s possible to find
attractive proposition for entrepreneurs, taking a stake in Health-Ade, one of the kombucha on sale in bars and pubs
particularly those that already have top-five American kombucha makers, in both central Amsterdam and rural
brewing equipment. and in late 2017 purchased Australian Scotland.
In the US, where kombucha first kombucha maker Mojo. These steps With all the new launch and start-
appeared as a commercial product in mean that kombucha will become more up activity, kombucha is likely to go
health food stores around 2004, sales are mainstream. through a period of over-supply then
rocketing, increasing by 43% in 2018 PepsiCo’s commitment to the category consolidation. The brands that win will
compared to 2017, according to Nielsen with KeVita has in particular woken be those which, like KeVita, excel with
data, and retail sales are up other companies to kombucha’s flavours, packaging and getting access
on course for $1 billion growth potential and, as Chart 40 shows, to shelf-space. If a kombucha comes to
(€870 million). there has been a surge of new product market that can offer a scientifically-
The US market is launches. Beer brewing backed probiotic (none does at present)
led by the pioneering companies that delivers a ‘feel the benefit’ effect, it
brand, GT Living are notably creates a point of difference in a crowded
Foods, with a 50% active – segment.
market share. But in Molson Given the importance to consumers of
second place is KeVita, Coors digestive wellness (see Key Trend 1) and
with over $200 million Brewing, younger consumers’ love of effervescent
(€173 million) in sales. for drinks with a ‘naturally healthy’ halo,
KeVita has been example, there is likely to be a lot more growth to
owned by PepsiCo has come.
since 2016 and is one acquired
of the brands that has

CHART 40: KOMBUCHA DRINKS LAUNCHED IN THE US

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2018

Source: Mintel GNPD

© New Nutrition Business 2018 102 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

Categories under pressure

Some categories are showing signs of fruit juice. But juice and smoothie what a birch tree was. That’s been a
stalling or even failing, notably the manufacturers can’t look forward to any factor in keeping birch water ultra-niche,
following. growth. Even just to stand still they’ll despite five years of marketing efforts.
have to keep up with consumers’ fashion- Birch water also has a taste that is not
1. SMOOTHIES AND JUICE STILL driven approach to drinks, embracing appealing to mass-market consumers.
UNDER PRESSURE cool ingredients from activated French coconut water brand VaiVai
Juice and smoothie brands have long charcoal to ginger to matcha, with the is an example of how fragmented the
depended on having a strong “naturally understanding that they’ll be gone in a beverage market is becoming and how
healthy” image. But their core consumers few years and something new will take difficult it is for any small brand to get
include the most health-conscious their place. much beyond niche status. In 2013, when
people and they are also the first ones its annual sales were only €800,000 ($1
to have taken onboard the anti-sugar 2. PLANT WATERS STALL million), VaiVai was acquired by Solinest,
message (see Key Trend 4). The vitamins, Although coconut water brands such a large French group which already
antioxidants and fibre found in many (but as Vita Coco have demonstrated that it’s had unrivalled distribution for many
not all) juices stopped being a source of possible to offer all-natural hydration, other brands, from healthy snacks to
competitive advantage some time ago – without any added sweetness, coupled confectionery to Starbucks coffee drinks.
and today these benefits are increasingly with a plant-sourced health image, other This gave the fledgling brand access to
overshadowed in the minds of many plant waters have not fared so well. all of France’s supermarkets. But despite
consumer by worries about sugar. There’s been a proliferation of plant this, by 2018 sales had only reached
In the US sales of fruit beverages have waters from maple, birch, palm and €5 million ($5.8 million), according to
declined five years in a row. Orange bamboo trees, but they have often failed Les Echos, the leading French business
juice – once the mainstay of the market to create a point of difference from publication.
– experienced a 21% decline between coconut and have had a problem of
2010 and 2014. In the UK market leader consumer acceptance.
Pepsi-owned Tropicana experienced a Coconut water was fairly easy for
12.2% drop in sales in 2018. people to accept because of their
Luckily most consumers still consider familiarity with coconut as an ingredient
fruit juice healthy – NNB’s 5-country in bakery, confectionery and meals.
survey found that compared to the Birch water, on the other hand, emerged
61% of consumers cutting down on from nowhere (unless you are Finnish or
soft drinks, just 28% were dropping Russian) and people first needed to learn

Despite access to all of France’s supermarkets, VaiVai

coconut water brand remains niche with €5 million
Unfamiliarity, plus a taste challenge, has kept birch water ultra-niche. in sales.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 103 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Beverages redefined

BEVERAGES
CHART 41: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 8, BEVERAGES REDEFINED

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 42: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 8, BEVERAGES REDEFINED

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET

CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

SALES

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 104 www.new-nutrition.com

 Key trenD 9

FAT REBORN
A BRIGHTER FUTURE
New science continues to back the redemption of
fat – particularly dairy fat – and consumers are
learning that not all fat is bad.

11%
% OF CONSUMERS TRYING
of Americans think TO EAT MORE HEALTHY
"fat is not bad", an FATS:
increase of              
50%
compared 36.5%
Consumers'
to 2017

perceptions
41.2%

15%
of Australians
think "fat is
not bad" around fat are 45.2%

changing 34.1%

24%
of Americans rate
butter as a
"good fat" 31.8%

Some people will continue to avoid The future is a

fat. Others will pick and choose highly-fragmented
according to their personal approach to fat
definition of "good fats" consumption!

Smaller companies are innovating with higher-fat products.

Some are even collaborating with much larger players.

Know Brainer offers a range of Suzie's Good fats is a range of high- Pip & Nut and other peanut butter
instant coffee and tea sachets with fat, low-sugar bars, inspired by the brands have launched on-the-go
good fats. The brand has benefited popularity of "fat bombs". Each bar snack sachets of nut butters, which
from ©support
New Nutrition Business 2018
from Nestle. 105
has 6g of saturated fats. arewww.new-nutrition.com
driving the category growth.
 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

Key Trend 9:
Fat reborn – promise of a bright future

SUMMARY
• Shift in scientific thinking: The demonisation of saturated fat is slowly
coming to an end as the science behind low-fat eating is discredited.
Cardiologists, the former editor of JAMA and the editor of the British
Medical Journal are among the many expert sources now announcing that
we no longer need to fear fat.
• Dietary guidelines won’t change soon: There are health
professionals who still dispute the change – so many consumers will
continue to follow low-fat eating patterns. Europe will change more slowly
than the English-speaking countries or parts of Asia.
• But more people are making up their own minds: Thanks to the
internet, where the debate is playing out on social media, consumers will
find no shortage of reputable scientists rejecting the low-fat hypothesis.
• Low-carb and protein overlap: Shifting consumer thinking about
protein and carbs is fuelling the shift in thinking on fat. Lower-carb diets,
for example, by definition mean eating more protein and/or fat.
• Markets already changing: The re-birth of butter, with demand
outstripping supply, is one manifestation of the trend. The reverse side
of the coin is the ongoing collapse in demand for margarines and
polyunsaturated spreads – marketed since the 1960s as healthier than
butter. Such is the decline that Unilever – once the global dominator of
spreads – has got out of the business.

FAT REBORN CONNECTS WITH 5 OTHER KEY TRENDS

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

“One big reversal [in our thinking] is the they find online and in the media. Your strategy needs to embrace the
demonization of fat…I think there may In NNB’s 2018 consumer survey, the reality that our relationship with fat is
be a tipping point that we’re hearing number of Americans who think “fat is at a tipping point. And although the
about the reversal of some conditions, not bad” is still small, at 11%, but that change will be slower in some countries
diabetes and obesity being two.” So said represents a 50% increase since 2017. and categories than others, all companies
the editor of the British Medical Journal, In Australia, nearly 15% think fat is not will have more opportunity to develop
Fiona Godlee, in her closing remarks at bad. In the US, 24% of people now rate products with a higher fat content and
Food4Thought, a meeting of leading butter as a ‘good fat’. therefore better taste, a better mouthfeel
experts in medicine, research and public Changing views on fat overlap with and better satiety. Companies that allow
policy organised by one of the world’s the increasing popularization of low- their NPD to be restricted by the dietary
biggest life insurers in June 2018. carb eating, which by definition is a diet guidelines on fat could be making a big
And Dr George Lundberg, a JAMA higher in fat (and/or protein). Shifting mistake – many of their competitors
journals editor for 17 years, revealed his consumer perceptions around these three won’t follow the guidelines, and nor will
own shift in thinking on fat in a video nutrients are the fuel for continuing an ever-increasing number of consumers.
titled “Turns out, it’s not fat that makes changes in the marketplace – changes This is something that Danone,
us unhealthy”, posted on Medscape, an we’re already seeing. For example, the the world’s largest yogurt maker, has
online news source for physicians and OECD expects global demand for butter recognised. “There is a very segmented
healthcare professionals worldwide. to grow at 2.2% a year over the period approach to what consumers consider
Godlee’s and Lundberg’s remarks 2018-2027, despite higher prices – a as healthy or not,” Danone chairman
acknowledge the increasing body of change it attributes to the fact that “… and chief executive officer Emmanuel
evidence that fat in general and saturated recent studies have shed a more positive Faber told analysts and investors in
fat in particular is not as bad for health as light on the health implications of dairy a conference call in 2018. “Sugar is
we thought. And this acknowledgement fat consumption, as well as consumers’ clearly not what they want to see, but
reflects what a growing number of preference for taste and less processed fat, including animal fat, is a trend that’s
consumers now believe based on what food.” back.”

What’s driving the change?

Around the world, dietary guidelines He advises people to embrace full fat promises to reduce cholesterol.”
remain unchanged in calling for dairy and other saturated fats within the And in the US, Dr David Ludwig of
consumers to limit their consumption context of a healthy eating plan: “It’s an Harvard Medical School has described
of fats in general and saturated fat in instruction that is sometimes greeted with the rehabilitation of saturated fat as
particular. Health professionals in many open-mouthed astonishment, along with the end of “the largest public health
countries reject the changing science so my request to steer clear of anything that experiment in history.”
for the moment the change in thinking
about fat is led by the English-speaking BOX 63: WHOLE IS BETTER
countries. In many countries fat is still
firmly demonised. Bellwether Farms in California is expanding its production of organic whole milk yogurt –
One of the drivers of changing and plugging it with a “Whole is Better” campaign. Made with locally sourced organic
whole milk from Jersey cows, the yogurt is naturally high in heart-healthy fats and A2 protein,
consumer beliefs is reading online about
according to the company.
health, where they will find no shortage
of reputable scientists rejecting the low- “Our products are whole milk, intentionally. It’s common sense on top of good science,
fat hypothesis that underlies most dietary whole is better. Whole fat yogurt, cheese
and milk taste better and are better for
guidelines.
us,” says Liam Callahan, co-founder. “We
In the UK, for example, influential respect the integrity of the milk so it delivers
cardiologist Dr Aseem Malhotra tells all the nutrition and health benefits naturally.
visitors to his website: “These days I We have created a richer, creamier yogurt,
make a point of telling my patients without straining, adding thickeners or cream.
– many of whom are coping with We design our products to support healthy,
debilitating heart problems – to avoid active lifestyles for peak performance and
anything bearing the label ‘low fat’”. enjoyment.”

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

Backed by science
The exoneration of fat began to gain suggesting that high carb intake was REFERENCES
traction back in 2010, a landmark associated with higher risk of total 1. Siri-Tarino PW et al, American Journal of
Clinical Nutrition, Jan 13 2010
review1, published in the American Journal mortality, whereas total fat and individual
2. Marcia C de Oliveiera Otto et al, American
of Clinical Nutrition stated “there is no types of fat were related to lower total Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 2018
significant evidence for concluding mortality. “Total fat and types of fat 3. Dr Mahshid Dehghan et al, The Lancet,
that dietary saturated fat is associated were not associated with cardiovascular August 29, 2017
4. Ramsden CE et al, British Medical Journal,
with an increased risk of CHD or disease, myocardial infarction, or
April 2016
CVD [coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas
cardiovascular disease]”. saturated fat had an inverse association
The body of evidence has increased with stroke,” concluded the study.
significantly since then, and includes, for “Global dietary guidelines should be
example, a study published in July 20182, reconsidered in light of these findings.”
also in the American Journal of Clinical Emerging science continues to
Nutrition, that found no link between reinforce what consumers have already
dairy fat and increased risk or heart begun to decide for themselves. Even
disease or overall mortality and that dairy though dietary guidelines have not
fat might, in fact, be beneficial. changed on fat, despite being challenged
And in November 2017, findings by many experts convinced we’ve had it
of the influential and widely-reported wrong on fat for decades, consumers are
Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology making up their own minds.
(PURE) study3 were published,

BOX 64: HOW FAT GOT ITS BAD REPUTATION

If you are a marketer who has ever wondered why your company lowest fat consumption had the healthiest populations - Keys looked
sells low-fat foods, or a new product developer who has struggled at a much wider range of countries than just seven, but selected only
with how to make low-fat products taste those compatible with his hypothesis. France
good, then you should know that it’s largely for example – a land of high fat consumption
because of the influence of Ancel Keys, but low heart disease – was one of several
a scientist at the University of Minnesota, countries excluded.
who relentlessly championed the idea that
The data in the influential Minnesota Coronary
saturated fats raise cholesterol in the blood
Experiment, published in 1970, was reviewed
and, as a result, cause heart attacks and
in 2016 by the British Medical Journal4,
increased risk of death.
including never-before-published data from
In 1961 Keys secured a position on Key’s study, which had helped galvanise
the nutrition committee of the American the negative consensus around saturated
Heart Association (AHA), whose dietary fats. The original randomised trial, using
guidelines were considered a gold 9,423 people, was designed to test whether
standard at that time. His influence led replacing saturated fat with vegetable oil
the AHA to issue its first-ever guidelines reduced coronary heart disease and death
targeting saturated fats and over the next by lowering serum cholesterol. Using data
20 years the alleged evils of saturated fats collected during the original trial – but never
became the new orthodoxy. published – the new analysis revealed that:
But Keys’ work is increasingly discredited. 1. Although the intervention did lower blood
We now know that Keys’ studies – from cholesterol, it did not translate to lower risk of
the Seven Countries to the Minnesota death
Coronary Experiment – breached several
2. In fact, the people who had the greatest reductions in cholesterol
basic scientific norms:
had a higher – not lower – risk of death
In the Seven Countries study – which claimed that countries with the

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

Consumers are making their own minds up on fat

While official dietary guidelines in almost any attention to diet guidelines in future: diet decisions – resulting in a highly-
every country still call for consumers to • “Strange that! A few weeks ago they fragmented approach to fat consumption.
limit their intake of saturated fats, and put out a study saying the exact opposite Some consumers will include in their
health professionals still pressurise food that red meat and dairy are bad for your own, personally-defined “good fats”
companies to produce lower-fat products, heart.” category red meat, others dairy fat,
a small but ever-increasing number of • “This week’s dietary advice - look out others coconut oil, and will combine the
consumers are embracing the idea that for the opposite advice next week!” good fats in whatever way makes most
fat can be good, fuelled by what they • “I think I will just continue to eat sense to them. Other consumers will
read online and in the media, and hear whatever the heck I like as long as I continue to avoid fat.
from family and friends. exercise and pretty much ignore all the These changing behaviours are
And enabling change is the fact that pointless advice…” already having an effect on markets. For
consumers have less respect for dietary example, in response to the exoneration
guidelines than in the past, thanks to the When people see that dietary of dairy fat, demand for full-fat dairy is
loss of credibility that nutrition experts guidelines and “experts” got it so wrong rising in many countries while that for
have accumulated over the last 15 years for so long, and still can’t agree, it’s low-fat dairy is falling:
as many nutritional ‘truths’ have been no wonder that they increasingly do • In the US, sales of whole milk
overturned. In August 2018, for example, their own research and make their own were up by 2.4%, measured by
the European Society of Cardiology
called for public health officials to revise BOX 65: FAT MOTIVATIONS
health guidelines on dairy consumption,
especially cheese and yoghurt. “The Putting aside the scientific arguments about saturated fat, what’s important is that consumers
consumption of dairy products has long are making up their own minds and – starting with the most health-aware – are losing their
been thought to increase the risk of fear of fat. The change in fat consumption is led by:
death, particularly from coronary heart 1. TASTE-LOVERS
disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease,
People who enjoy the more satisfying taste and texture of full-fat products and now believe
and cancer, because of dairy’s relatively
that they can enjoy them without guilt.
high levels of saturated fat. Yet evidence
for any such link, especially among US 2. SUGAR-LOWERERS
adults, is inconsistent,” it said in a press People wanting to reduce their sugar intake (Key Trend 4) are turning away from low-fat
release. yoghurts (for example) because of their perceived high sugar level and replacing them with
Thanks to social media, debate about full-fat products.
diet is taking place in full view of the 3. PROTEIN-LOVERS
public, not as it used to be in the past,
People who as part of weight wellness are choosing products that are higher in protein
hidden inside universities and scientific
(Key Trend 3).
journals. In the space of a couple of
weeks in August 2018, for example, a 4. CONSUMERS WHO WANT NATURALLY-HEALTHY FOODS
speech by Harvard professor Dr Karin A full-fat product is more attractive to them than a low-fat product with its more processed
Michels that claimed “coconut oil is image (and worse taste).
poison” because of its high saturated 5. LOW-CARBERS
fat content was widely-reported – at the
People adopting LCHF (low carb high fat) diets (Key Trend 5)– or at least “fewer carbs
same time as the news from a cardiology
and higher fat”, often for reasons of sports, fitness and weight wellness. As part of their diet
conference that steak and cheese would they often look for higher-fat snacks, such as fat-bombs, for satiety.
do them no harm.
It would be wise for companies to de-prioritise low fat in their product development. Why
When the UK’s Daily Mail newspaper
put yourself at a disadvantage by offering a worse-tasting product than your competitors?
reported the good news about steak and
cheese, it released a torrent of online In all categories, as time passes there will be less and less reason to produce products that
commenters venting their frustration at have low levels of fat. Fat improves texture, mouthfeel, structure of products and moisture
content. The challenge for companies is to ensure they use good quality fats where they can
the mixed messages on nutrition – and
point to a good, natural source.
expressing the intention of not paying

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

volume, according to the USDA,

CHART 43: PERCENTAGES OF CONSUMERS TRYING TO EAT
while sales of low and no-fat milk
MORE HEALTHY FATS
fell. Whole milk now accounts
for 40% of US liquid milk sales,
compared to 33% back in 2012
(IRI). Low-fat milk is also losing
sales to better-tasting plant milks
as well as to better-tasting whole
milk.
• In Australia, whole milk was up by
2.8%, while reduced fat was down
by 4.9% and no-fat by 14.4%.
• In the UK, the volume of whole
milk consumed increased by more
than 15% in the period 2013-18.
• In the UK in 2018, despite a
huge hike in the retail price of CHART 44: CONSUMERS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
butter, the market finished 28% POSITIVE ABOUT FAT, 2017 VS 2018
bigger measured by value than the In the UK, the US and Spain, there is a small but steady increase in the number of people
previous year. Volume fell by just who think “fat is not bad” and a decline in the numbers who think “all fat is bad”.
3.8%. In other words, despite a
huge price premium, most butter
consumers did not switch to lower-
priced polyunsaturated spreads.
In the US, sales of full-fat yoghurt
brands have increased consistently, with
the Noosa brand – which has no low-fat
variants – growing from zero in 2012
to $300 million (€261 million) in 2017.
And 42% of Americans, and the same
percentage of Australians, believe that
full-fat yoghurt is a source of healthy
fat, according to NNB’s survey. Thirty-
six percent of Americans and 39% CHART 45: CONSUMERS INCREASINGLY RATE FULL-FAT
of Australians believe that cheese is a YOGHURT AS HEALTHY, 2017 VS 2018
healthy fat.
In NZ, one of the world’s biggest dairy Recent years have seen a radical change in consumers’ perceptions of full-fat yoghurt.
producing countries, the renewed taste Back in 2008 almost no consumers in any of these markets would have rated full-fat
for dairy fat is already having an impact yoghurt as “healthy”.
on the types of cows the nation raises.
As the public has become convinced that
butter is no longer the health demon it
was portrayed to be, demand for dairy
fat has increased with dairy ingredient
prices reflecting the change – whole milk
powder is now worth more than skimmed
milk powder. That makes it more
attractive for farmers to have Jersey-type
cows, which naturally have a higher
fat percentage in their milk than the
Friesians which make up most herds. NZ

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

farmers are beginning to look at changing

their herds to Jersey. Many farmers
already have “KiwiCross” cows which are
a mix of Friesian and Jersey.
And shifting views on fat are not just
affecting dairy. Foods such as bacon, that
people avoided in the past for their high
fat content, are seeing sales increasing. In
the US, 14% of people believe bacon is
a source of healthy fat. And in the UK’s
£914 million ($1.2 billion/€1 billion) Once a declining market, demand for animal fats is increasing sharply as customers adjust their attitude to fat.
bacon market, supermarket sales rose
by 1.5% volume and 2% value, in the CHART 46: COCONUT OIL GETS FULL MARKS FOR HEALTH
year to February 2018, according to
data collected by Kantar Worldpanel, Despite the fact that coconut oil is high in saturated fat (and was called “poison” by a
leading academic in 2018), consumers see it as healthier than canola oil.
one of the more reputable sources. And
there was a huge 21% growth in sales of
‘streaky’ bacon – the type that has the
highest fat content.
Among the drivers are the influence
of higher-protein and lower-carb diets
and in particular the Paleo diet, in which
bacon stars. In practice few people are
closely following Paleo or keto diets, but
many people are selecting from these
diets the parts they like the sound of and
allowing them to influence their own
choices. And the exoneration of sat fat is

BOX 66: FAT BOMBS A HIT ON SOCIAL MEDIA

Good-looking, Instagram-friendly and packed with

up to 80% fat, fat bombs are a mix of healthy fats with
some flavour and texture, shaped into a ball or cake and
favoured as a snack by low-carb and ketogenic dieters.
Recipes for making them yourself abound on the internet.

Total mentions on Instagram:

#fatbombs: 32,000
#coconutoil: 1.8 million
#bulletproofcoffee: 366,000
 
Total mentions over a 45-day period, in all channels:
Fatbombs: 8,000
Coconut Oil: 64,300
Bulletproof coffee: 10,000

Source: Sysomos

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

making it easier for people to embrace Suzie’s Good Fats has launched a diet and sugar is the cause of many of
such diets, which are typically high in range of high-fat, low-sugar bars based today’s health problems. I want people to
fat – up to 80% fat (and 5% carbs, 15% on the idea of a “fat bomb”. The bars enjoy good fats without sugar.” Although
protein) in the case of a ketogenic diet. have 6g saturated fat, while their sugar Yorke acknowledges the conflicting
On the back of changing science content is significantly lower than most information and the need for more
and shifting consumer views, smaller snack bars on the market, which tend research, she added saturated fat to her
companies are innovating with higher-fat to have 10g or more of sugar. “Fat is diet and wants to give other people a way
products, with some of these businesses clearly back,” founder Suzie Yorke told to have a snack bar with fat, including
are collaborating with much larger New Nutrition Business. “Science is showing saturated fat, and not much sugar.
players: essential fats need to be part of a healthy “Early adopters are consumers already
Know Brainer: When Shari Leidich
noticed that “bulletproof ” butter coffee BOX 67: NUTRITION SNAPSHOT, SUZIE’S GOOD FATS BARS
was taking off with consumers, based on
its claims to
Suzie’s Good Fats bars, which
boost cognitive
contain as much as 18% fat
function via from a blends of nut butters,
MCTs by organic palm stearin, coconut
combining oil, peanut oil and sunflower
coffee, “brain oil, are flagged up on the
octane oil” website as Keto- and LCHF-
and grass-fed friendly.
clarified butter,
she decided
to make a
convenient
version.
“Within a year, bulletproof had six
million viewers on Facebook,” Leidich
said. “But it was so hard to make,” she
said, in part because the ingredients must
be blended.
Enter Know Brainer, a range of
instant coffee and tea sachets, and coffee
creamers with good fats, which has
benefited from support from Nestlé.
MCTs, Leidich explained, reside
in eggs and other natural sources in BOX 68: YET MORE RETHINKING OF FAT TO COME?
addition to coconut oil. Know Brainer
distills MCTs into a substance that is Food companies shouldn’t assume that consumer questioning of good and bad fats will
10 times more powerful than unrefined stop here. Questions are also being raised over whether vegetable and seed oils are the
coconut oil. The brand includes one best for our health. While this is a very new idea, it’s something that could spread – with, for
tablespoon of MCTs in each of its example, the publication of a new book in 2018 by cardiovascular research scientist and
packets. best-selling author Dr James
DiNicolantonio.
As far as clarified butter is concerned,
she said, “the beauty of it is ours is made “Consuming veg oils is one of
from grass-fed cows, meaning that there the worst things you can do
are three times more omega-3s in the for your health,” he claims in
Superfuel – a follow up to his
MCTs” than in the equivalent amount
best-selling book The Salt Fix –
of coconut oil. “There’s also other
and which promises to “…unlock
nutritional components that are really the secrets of good fats, bad fats
important for gut and brain health.” and great health”.

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

aware of the benefits of a high-fat/

BOX 69: 4TH & HEART REVIVES FAT FOR A MODERN AUDIENCE
healthy-fat diet,” said Yorke. “Many
health/natural food store shoppers know
As high-fat, low carb
of these benefits.”
eating styles gain
Justin’s, Pip & Nut and others are
popularity, there has been
providing nut butters in on-the-go snack momentum for new full-fat
packaging, which is helping to drive the products on the market
category’s growth. There was a 10% including items based on
increase in peanut butter sales between ghee - a form of clarified
2010 and 2018, and peanut butter is butter from cow’s milk that
expected to grow at a 6.9% CAGR till is dairy and lactose free
and boasts higher levels of
2023 according to
conjugated linoleic acid
Mordor Intelligence
(CLA), better omega-3
forecasts. Consumers to omega-6 fatty acid
are receptive because ratio as well as vitamins
they understand nuts A, K and E. Tipped as the next coconut oil, this ancient Ayurvedic oil is made by melting
are high in good regular butter, ideally from grass-fed cows, and then removing the liquid fats and milk solids.
monounsaturated Because the dairy is taken out, ghee contains lower levels of dairy proteins like casein, and
fat, they’re plant- lactose, which makes it easier for people who are sensitive to those compounds to tolerate.
Otherwise, ghee’s nutritional profile and fat content are similar to butter, with about 50%
based, and they’re
saturated fat content.
increasingly accepted
in “milks”. And for 4th and Heart debuted its first products in 2015, and the company is pushing the envelope in
anyone trying to cut ghee products by offering flavored ghee, first adding flavors like serrano chilis, Himalayan
salt, and more recently Madagascar vanilla bean and California garlic. It’s also at the
down their carbs, they’re a useful snack.
cutting edge of how ghee products are used, offering ghee in new formats such as flavored
“Ghee on the Go” single serve packages, and ghee oil and ghee oil spray. Most recently,
in 2017, the company launched its Chocti branded Chocolate ghee spreads (similar to
hazelnut-based spreads) in three flavors, Original, Coffee Guarana and Passion Fruit.
Tavares said she came up with the idea for the Chocti spreads because she wanted to
create something new that people could enjoy daily that was also healthier for them. “It fit
with our brand premise to upgrade ancient pantry staples in a good way,” she said. “It has
always been our plan to educate people about ghee and how to use it.”
Niche or not, the ghee trend is gaining momentum. In fact, many US-based grocery chains,
such as Kroger and Trader Joe’s, now offer private-label ghee products. The Chocti products
are already in Kroger stores and launching in Sprouts nationwide as well as Fresh Thyme
Farmer’s Market and Jewels-Osco stores in late 2018. Tavares also predicts ghee will start
showing up more as an ingredient in products. “We believe that ghee can make shelf stable
and tasty products and it provides a better option than palm oil. It doesn’t have the bad
politics and deforestation issues, so I think we will start seeing more of that across the board.”
Tavares is not overly concerned about the saturated fat issues. “When it comes to fats,” she
said, “there is no one-size-fits all model. Women metabolize fats slower than men and we
all have differences in the way our bodies metabolize food. Like anything else, if you have
heart problems, are morbidly obese or don’t exercise, you would want to limit consumption
of any saturated fat,” Tavares said. “But we are all choosing fats to cook with and ghee
has a lovely taste and nutritional profile. If you have to choose between margarine with 15
ingredients, and ghee, I think people will choose ghee all day long.”

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

BOX 70: CONSUMERS RATE HEALTHY FATS AS KEY WEAPON AGAINST INFLAMMATION

The idea of “anti-inflammatory foods” and diets that help guard against a variety of health problems, from joint pain to digestive issues, is
no longer a niche concept. Today it’s on the agenda of even mainstream sources like the Harvard Medical School. And Oprah Winfrey
has made an equity investment in the fast-growing restaurant chain True Food Kitchen which delivers a menu based on an anti-inflammatory
food pyramid, of which healthy fats represent a big segment.
In the wide array of sources and platforms discussing inflammation and anti-inflammatory diets, healthy and good fats are always
mentioned as key foods to incorporate, including:
• Salmon & other fatty
fish (sardines, tuna) for
their omega-3s content
• Bone broths – for their
content of chondroitin and
glucosamine
• Walnuts and other
nuts
• Olive oil
• Coconut oil

This article on anti-inflammatory diets states that “nuts have the

healthy kind of fat that helps stop inflammation. (0live oil
and avocados are also good sources).”

In this MindBodyGreen articles rule number 6 and 7 are:

“6. Eat fish at least three times a week.
Choose both low-fat fish such as sole and flounder, and cold-water fish that contain
healthy fats, like the ones mentioned above.
7. Use oils that contain healthy fats.
Virgin and extra-virgin olive oil (organic if possible like this one) and expeller-
pressed canola are the best bets for anti-inflammatory benefits.”

In this article, the anti-inflammatory diet “basic principles” are:

“Anti-inflammatory fats are a cornerstone of this diet - foods high in
omega-3 fatty acids, such as wild salmon, sardines, herring, anchovies,
flaxseed, hempseed and walnuts. In addition, other anti-inflammatory
fats include extra-virgin olive oil, avocado oil, flaxseed oil, hempseed
oil and walnut oil.”

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 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

BOX 71: MILLENNIALS AND FATS

FATS: “I try to eat higher quality

butter and to cut down on

WHAT ARE
fatty foods. Avoiding fast
food and fats is one of my
everyday goals but it can
be difficult finding healthier

MILLENNIALS
options with short lunch
breaks at work.”
– French, osteopath, 26,

THINKING?
male

“I use olive oil with high

smoke point for cooking.
“Eggs, olive oil, nuts, full fat Also coconut oil. Butter for
“I prefer using butter and dairy and avocado are all toast and some cooking.
olive oil for cooking. I fatty foods that I consume Avocados, nuts and salmon
enjoy the taste of coconut often without worrying. I for good fats.”
oil, but I am not convinced always buy full fat milk and – New Zealander, full-time
that there are any special Greek yoghurt. I try to avoid mother, 37, female
health benefits to it. I don’t fried, greasy foods and
believe it’s superfood, only also products that combine
super marketing. My diet high fat and high carb
also includes fatty foods like ingredients. I see them as
avocado, almonds, olives, a ‘treat’. And I’m not 100%
sesame and bacon.” convinced about cheese
“I prefer a moderate amount
– Croatian, tourist agency being good for you. But
of fat using small amounts
director, 30, female other than that I think fat is an
of coconut oil for sauteeing,
important component in a
and olive oil for salad
healthy balanced diet. ”
dressings. I like to keep
– British, account manager, saturated animal fats to a
“Any not-industrially 31, male minimum. Good fats are:
produced oil is ideal (e.g. coconut oil, organic butter,
evoo, rapeseed, etc.). Oil “I eat some fatty products avocados, olives, flaxseed
from big oil companies may and use olive oil and oil/ground flaxseeds, nuts
be blended. Coconut and butter vey much. I don’t and seeds and algae oil
palm oil are said to be less worry too much about fatty supplements for Omega 3s.
good for nutritional and foods, though I try to avoid Fats that are questionable
sustainability reasons.” saturated fats. At home we are highly refined vegetable
have recently decided to try oils like canola oil,
– Italian, PhD student, 30,
coconut oil as a healthier sunflower etc. ”
female
alternative, but found that – New Zealander, legal
due to the strong sweet executive, 38, female
“After some time on low flavour it doesn’t go well
carb/paleo diet I have with all foods.”
realised the benefits of
including fat in my diet with – Portuguese, architect, 30,
regards to making meals male “A few years ago I was
more satiating. In general, suffering from gastritis. So
reducing my fat intake is not “I am a big fan of cheese I started excluding fried
something I think about as I and dairy products and I foods, reducing alcohol
feel like I have quite a good think they are good and consumption, and increasing
idea of what is good for me highly nutritious. The same my fruit and vegetable
and not. I’m much more wary goes for nuts, which I eat a intake – and the problem
of sugar and salt. ” lot. ” disappeared.”
– British, account manager, – Croatian, PhD student, 26, – Spanish, journalist, 30,
31, male female female

© New Nutrition Business 2018 115 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

BOX 72: FAT – THE HEALTH HALO PASSES FROM POLYUNSATURATED SPREADS TO BUTTER

First came margarine and then, in the 1960s, came spreads made with poly- and mono-unsaturated fats. Spreads were marketed
by companies such as Unilever and promoted by health professionals from the 1960s until recently as a healthier alternative to
butter (condemned for its saturated fat content). But now the tables are turned:
Italy: “Butter is regaining popularity and has once again become one of the most used fats in the kitchen for its many strengths:
unlike margarines it is not a chemical product, it is less caloric than oils, not to mention that it is a completely natural product without
preservatives. Revalued by scientific studies, butter returns to conquer the carts of Italian families: in 2017 there was an increase of
12.5% ​​in sales.”
Source: Coldiretti

Spain: The bad reputation of butter is melting away and sales are increasing with volume of butter production (both for exports
and the domestic market) up about 10% annually.
Germany: Demand for butter has only been slowed by a 45% price increase in 2018. Irish brand Kerrygold
is the No 1 butter brand in Germany. Ornua, the owner of Kerrygold, reported 41% growth in the German
market in 2017, and sales of €564 million. Germany now contributes of a quarter of Ornua’s sales.
Spreads and margarines are in long-term decline in Germany but the rate of decline has slowed to -2% a
year. Despite spreads’ price advantage compared to butter, sales have not revived.
Europe-wide: Per capita butter consumption is on the rise, increasing from 4.02kg in 2012 to 4.31kg in 2017
across the EU28 countries. This rise is at the expense of margarines. Faced with collapsing sales, what was
once the unthinkable happened in December 2017 when Unilever sold its spreads business – for 60 years one
of the company’s pillars – to investor group KKR.

CHART 47: CHOLESTEROL-LOWERING SPREADS IN CHART 48: SPREADS SUFFER AS BUTTER

TROUBLE PROSPERS

Unilever spreads portfolio total sales (Flora and 5 other brands)

Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen
The original ‘functional food’, made with plant sterols proven to UK sales of spreads and margarines fell by 30% between 2012
lower cholesterol and carrying a rare EFSA-approved health and 2017 as consumers turned to butter. Butter’s naturalness,
claim, cholesterol-lowering spreads made by Unilever (Pro.Activ) less-processed nature and restored health credentials all
and Benecol have not been immune to the turning away from contributed to this change.
spreads. Sales of both brands have been steadily declining.
Their future looks bleak as more and more cardiologists question Butter brand sales were up 6% in 2017 despite selling at
whether lowering cholesterol has any connection to reducing risk a significant premium to spreads. Total spreads category
of heart disease and declined by 10%.
consumers discover this Even spread brands made with ingredients like coconut
argument for themselves oil, olive oil and other plant-based oils saw sales fall,
by online searching (see with several brands withdrawn.
Key Trend 6).
By contrast just two butter brands - Lurpak and Anchor,
both owned by Arla Dairy - exceeded $500 million in
retail sales.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 116 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Fat reborn

FAT
CHART 49: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 9, FAT REBORN

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 50: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 9, FAT REBORN

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET
CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

Cholesterol-
SALES
lowering
spreads are
declining in
their niche whole
milk
as fat fears low-fat
milk

recede.

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 117 www.new-nutrition.com

 Key trenD 10
AUTHENTICITY
& PROVENANCE
Provenance, authenticity and artisanal
production are transforming categories and
moving from lifestyle into mainstream.
Consumer motivations/beliefs Provenance & Authenticity
driving this trend: has transformed categories!
Beer
The craft beer revolution has
changed the category in recent
Safety Better Higher years.
Many once small beer brands
taste quality are now owned by major
players, like Brooklyn Beer
(owned by Kirin) or Beavertown
Brewery (owned by Heineken).

Bread 
Sales of artisanal breads are
growing in the UK (4.3%),
Australia (2%) and Canada
Healthy Simplicity Local (15%). 
Spanish bakery chain
Panishop launched a "slow
baking" range of artisanal
breads – sourdough now
accounts for 20% of its sales.

AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BOTH

SMALL AND BIG COMPANIES
Offer a style of Invest in packaging
Select particular products associated that cultivates the
ingredients from a with a particular authentic/artisanal
certain locality place – even if it's not feel of a product
made there! Yoplait's French inspired Oui
Swiss dairy group yoghurt is commercialized in
Emmi launched a single-serve small glass jars
Siggi's Icelandic and made with simple, non-
special edition of its Skyr is now a $200
chilled single-serve GMO ingredients, like whole
million business, milk and pure cane sugar.
RTD coffee drink using with its yogurts
Mexican coffee beans, being made
sourced in La Puebla nowhere near WK Kellogg is a range of
and milk from Iceland. no-added-sugar breakfast
Switzerland. cereals with a very
different packaging design
from traditional Kelloggs
products - communicating
a more artisanal message.
© New Nutrition Business 2018 118 www.new-nutrition.com
 10 Key Trends 2019 Authenticity & Provenance

Key Trend 10:

Authenticity & Provenance – mass
market embraces the back-story
SUMMARY
• Powering change: The beer and bread categories in western markets
give us a taste of what the future is going to look like in many categories,
with the emergence of new “artisan” products and the decline of
established brands.
• Crossing into the mainstream: This trend is influencing the strategies
of even the biggest companies, in every category from dairy to breakfast
cereals.
• A story grounded in geography or history: Consumers want to
know where their food is coming from, they like a back-story about a
place and/or about traditional or artisanal-style products or production
methods. They are open to small brands and unknown brands that have
such a story.
• Powering fragmentation: Smaller companies and brands tend to
score highest on connecting to this trend. That creates an opportunity
for more of them to take bites out of markets where once scale mattered
most.
• Premiumisation: People are willing to pay more for authenticity and
provenance. In the craft beer and bread markets, even very high-volume
brands can get high price premiums if they have a provenance story.
Consumers’ willingness to pay a premium is particularly strong in Asian
cities, where provenance is often linked with safety and high-quality.

AUTHENTICITY & PROVENANCE CONNECTS WITH 6 OTHER KEY

TRENDS

© New Nutrition Business 2018 119 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Authenticity & Provenance

The idea of foods and beverages having them to operate under separate desire for provenance and authenticity
“provenance” – with a back-story management. And as we will show, feeds fragmentation as people look for
anchored in heritage and trust and even the biggest companies are learning smaller brands, or brands that look
perhaps made in a traditional, artisanal how to successfully create brands with artisanal. It’s also having a growing
way – has been around since at least authenticity and provenance. impact in other categories such as dairy
the 1990s. It appealed chiefly to lifestyle As the examples of the craft beer and breakfast cereals.
consumers willing to pay a premium, and bread markets in this trend show, And increasingly, it will matter to
and such products were typically served provenance matters – and it is creating ingredients suppliers because of the value
by challenger brands, start-ups and small opportunities for companies from the that lies in ingredients having a positive
speciality brands. smallest to the largest. back story, as shown by the examples of
So why have we chosen provenance This trend is already transforming the turmeric, matcha tea and others.
and authenticity for this year’s 10 Key beer and bread categories, where the
Trends, for the first time ever? It’s
because these ways of identifying foods
– authenticity, artisanal and provenance
– are being increasingly embraced
by mainstream consumers. In many
Asian markets they are often key selling
messages. They are messages that many
people connect with quality, health and
wellness.
Provenance and artisan are entering
the strategies of even the largest
companies, often as bigger companies
and private equity groups acquire
brands with an artisanal/provenance
Provenance is a valuable selling point as this advertisement from Vinamilk, the leading Vietnamese dairy
identity, which they retain, allowing company, illustrates.

The provenance consumer

“Natural” and “naturally healthy” is now and higher income. They are willing and Consumer motivations
firmly established as a basic requirement able to pay premium prices for products driving the rising of
for success in many categories. Around that match up to their provenance provenance & authenticity
the world a growing percentage of interests. This is having an effect on
include (but are not limited
consumers want products that are distribution channels, with consumers
to):
‘natural’. They like products with a open to buying products from anywhere
back-story about a place and/or about in the world, and they are increasingly 1. Provenance = safety +
‘traditional’ or artisanal production buying through e-commerce retailers. better quality
methods. If these products come from Consumers want products that they 2. Artisanal = better
companies that are small – or perceived see as ‘genuine and authentic’, instilling a
taste + better quality +
to be – that’s all the better in the sense of comfort and security:
healthier
consumer’s mind. • Products and makers with a back-
The consumer’s concept of naturalness story anchored in heritage and 3. Naturally healthy,
and health is now expanding beyond trust simpler ingredients
ingredients to embrace provenance, • Crafted with care and using 4. Care about the
heritage, trust, batch-size and how natural, high quality ingredients environment
something is made. • Time-proven methods/products
Provenance-motivated consumers skew that provide a sense of comfort
strongly towards having higher education and reassurance

© New Nutrition Business 2018 120 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Authenticity & Provenance

Provenance and authenticity transforms beer

The recent history of the ‘craft beer’ • Brooklyn Brewery is 24.5% Partners.
market gives us a taste of what the future owned by Kirin This small-versus-big, independent-
will look like for many categories. The • Beavertown Brewery, a cult North versus-corporate side-taking exists in
craft beer revolution was founded on London craft brewery, is owned many creative fields and the direction
an “us-against-them” mentality where by the child of a Led Zeppelin of travel is always the same – the rebels
“us” was the people who drank ‘craft member, and sold a £40 million partner with the established players
beer’ from start-ups and small breweries stake to Heineken or are bought by them, and the big
and “them” was the massive global • In 2017, US craft brewer Wicked companies in time learn to look and
corporates, producing “industrial” beer. Weed was acquired by ABI – a act like rebels. The smartest companies
The trend continued for 15-20 years. move many fans saw as treachery will let them continue to operate as
But what was once “craft” has become independent businesses – retaining their
conventional, and the craft business is One brewery that has possibly tried entrepreneurial character, but benefiting
now big business. harder than any other to be ‘craft’ from scale of manufacturing, R&D,
In 2008, the Seattle craft brewery and a guerrilla brewery presenting an sourcing of ingredients and distribution
Elysian made a special beer for the 20th alternative to corporates is BrewDog. networks. In time, as beer and bread
anniversary of the record company The Scottish company claims it launched show, craft becomes conventional – what
that had launched the careers of 1990s because its founders were “bored of the was weird becomes mainstream.
counterculture bands such as Nirvana industrially brewed lagers and stuffy ales
and Soundgarden. The beer, called that dominated the U.K. beer market”.
Loser, used the slogan “Corporate beer While protesting its craft credentials
still sucks”. Seven years later, Elysian was BrewDog has become a multinational
acquired by the largest beer corporation business with over 50 locations in
in the world, Anheuser-Busch InBev places such as Barcelona, Rome and
(ABI). Now it is corporate beer too, as Sao Paulo. In 2017 it accepted a
are many of the more successful craft £213 million investment in exchange
breweries: for 25% of its shares (thus valuing
• Craft brewery Founders is owned the company at £1 billion) from
30% by Mahou-San Miguel. private equity group TSG Consumer The recent history of the ‘craft beer’ market gives us a taste
of what the future will look like for many categories.

CHART 51: PRICE COMPARISON FOR REGULAR VS ARTISANAL BEERS (US)

Source: NNB supermarket survey, October 2018

© New Nutrition Business 2018 121 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Authenticity & Provenance

Artisanal goes mass-market in bread

The same cycle can be seen in the IBIS World, the artisanal bakery product for its slow fermentation breads.
bread market, where the desire for manufacturing industry generated $4 • Europastry, another chain,
authentic better-quality bread is changing billion, with an annual growth of 2%: invested €10 million ($11.5
bread fortunes, driving the growth of “The typical family used to purchase million) this year in a factory
small-batch artisanal varieties, which a few loaves of factory-produced white to focus on its new brand
are perceived as more natural and bread once a week, now consumers are Saint Honoré – a line offering
wholesome. more likely to buy a range of freshly traditional breads, some with a
In the UK, for example, after many baked bread, including sourdough, long fermentation time similar to
years of decline the bread market is ciabatta and baguettes”. sourdough, sold with the tagline:
growing again – and premium-priced In Canada, artisanal bread is now a “Handmade, the heart and soul in the
artisanal products are behind this, $1.12 billion market, growing 15% in process. Time is the secret ingredient. We
producing value growth of 4.3% to four years. Bakery chain COBS saw sales respect the traditional processes and we
£1.4 billion ($1.8 billion / €1.6 billion) of its Sunflower Flax Sourdough loaf are proud of our past”.
in 2017. UK trade journal The Grocer increase 30% in the first half of 2018
explained: “It seems shoppers are and it recently launched artisan-style
eschewing mass-produced sliced bread in focaccia bread aimed at consumers’
favour of something more artisanal. Just “desire for simplicity—natural, made-
as beer has had its craft revolution, bread from-scratch bread with limited
now looks set for its own shake-up as a ingredients. We’ve seen that shift from
host of smaller players enjoy rocketing sandwich bread to sourdough and
Major player Hovis credits its artisanal-style range of
growth.” higher-fibre artisan types of breads.” bread for its 9.8% growth in 2018.
Hovis, the UK’s second-biggest bakery In Spain:
group, said that the main driver of its • Bakery chain Panishop had 20%
9.8% growth in 2018 was its artisanal- sales from sourdough bread
style range of bread. alone. The company created and
In Australia in 2017, according to patented the term “Slow Baking”
Upscale retailer Waitrose now offers five
sourdough variants and has recently launched new
CHART 52: PRICE COMPARISON OF REGULAR AND ARTISANAL products under its rustic looking “The Black Sheep
Bakery” brand for the “emerging trend of craft
BREADS IN THE UK (£) baking”.

Despite super-premium pricing in a notoriously price-sensitive category, sourdough

bread is the fastest-growing segment

Warburton’s recently invested £1m in a new bakery

site dedicated to baking gluten-free and regular
artisanal breads varieties.

A fifth of sales
at mass-market
Spanish bakery
chain Panishop is
sourdough bread.

Source: NNB supermarket survey, October 2018

© New Nutrition Business 2018 122 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Authenticity & Provenance

BOX 73: NZ BRANDS SUCCEED IN CHINA WITH PROVENANCE AND E-COMMERCE

In major cities, offering provenance and artisanal production is product’s provenance and artisanal/authentic method of production
already a source of competitive advantage – and nowhere more so – much more so than in the days when the only place a consumer
than the cities of China. New Zealand food brands have become encountered a brand was on the busy supermarket shelf or in a short
world leaders in successfully taking products with a provenance and TV ad.
wellness message to the Chinese market. New Zealand provenance
Justin Hall, MD of Vogels, which sells breakfast cereal in China, puts
is a reassurance to Chinese consumers who have been deterred
it this way: “Chinese consumers are interested in healthy imported
from local brands by the country’s many food safety scandals. For
foods and are buying more of their food online than ever before.
them New Zealand provenance also means safety.
We’re filming video content live in New Zealand and streaming it
For New Zealand companies the Chinese market has therefore to Chinese shoppers. You can look at e-commerce channels as a
become a way to get more volume and improve profit margins. As really low-cost way to get your product to market - there are low
with Europe and the US, the New Zealand market is increasingly barriers to selling on e-commerce and what’s reasonably unique
dominated by price-competitive and good-quality retailer own- about it is the great opportunity to manage our brand story through
label brands. various forms of digital marketing.”
Companies operating in dairy, fresh fruit, premium packaged foods
and chilled foods have all created successful premium positions
in China. In most cases they have also been creative with their
retail strategy, with most using China’s fast-growing e-commerce
platforms – such as Tmall and JD.com – to reach premium urban
consumers.
Fresh milk brand Theland flies fresh liquid milk to the Shanghai
market to sell in selected retail stores, achieving a 100% premium
over local Chinese suppliers. The Comvita honey brand sells direct
to consumers through a network of part-owned retail stores. These
and many other companies earn price premiums of 100% and
800% over Chinese brands.
New Zealand companies (such as Comvita, see image) have done particularly
Online media gives brands opportunities to fully explain their well in responding to Chinese consumers demand to “know where my food is
coming from, how it was made and by whom.”

FRESH LIQUID NEW ZEALAND MILK SELLS IN SHANGHAI AT A SUPER-PREMIUM PRICE THANKS TO
PROVENANCE

Consumers’ demand for and concern over food safety and provenance, plus perceived higher quality, is driving demand for fresh NZ milk –
despite premium prices.
Milk produced by New Zealand brand Theland can land in Shanghai supermarkets roughly 72 hours after production and bottling near
Auckland. Theland’s fresh milk, produced with Green Valley
Dairies, appears on the shelves of 18 Alibaba Hema Fresh CHART 53: PRICE PER 1L OF MILK IN CHINA ($)
supermarkets in Shanghai.
As consumers are increasingly concerned with food
safety and origins, regulators are using information
technology to improve traceability of
products.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 123 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Authenticity & Provenance

A trend for big companies as well as small

We are all food explorers now – in or three years ago. Once the market • Indian-inspired Lassi drink
wealthy markets at least – constantly leader in the US yoghurt market, Yoplait • Savoury Turkish-inspired Ayran
on the lookout for new and exciting was late to enter the Greek race and as drink
products with an interesting story to a result still lags Chobani and Danone Cleverly, the range isn’t going into
tell. As with many other areas, what and sales are down 20%. The first sign of mass distribution right away in the big
consumers are looking for depends on change was the debut, in June 2017, of retailers but is being launched exclusively
the category, is fragmented and cannot Oui by Yoplait, a ‘French-style’ yoghurt in Ocado, an online retailer with a strong
easily be categorized – however, this also sold in a small glass jar. In its first year base of higher-income, food explorer
presents the opportunity to get people’s Oui earned an impressive $100 million customers.
attention in multiple ways. (€87 million) in retail sales.
Connecting to a locality or to specific The brand combines provenance – WK Kellogg:
ingredients is something that even big which has proven so successful for Greek, In 2017,
brands can do, in almost any category, Icelandic skyr and Australian-style Kellogg debuted
as the example below show. This can be yoghurt – with artisanal style packaging. in several
done through: Instead of culturing the ingredients in European
• Selection of a particular large batches and then filling individual countries a
ingredient from a certain locality. cups, Oui by Yoplait is made by pouring new range of
For example, a company making ingredients into each individual pot, and plant-based,
authentic passata will specify allowing them to culture for eight hours, no-added-sugar
Italian tomatoes in its recipe, resulting in a thick texture. cereals. “More
rather than Spanish Packaged in single-serve glass pots, people than ever
• Offering a style of product Oui is made with simple, non-GMO are, quite rightly, educating themselves
associated with a particular ingredients like whole milk, pure cane on the ingredients of their food, the
place – but note that the product sugar, real fruit and yoghurt cultures. It sugar-content and where the ingredients
doesn’t have to be made in that contains no artificial preservatives, no are sourced from. It’s not a trend that
place, it’s the idea of the place artificial flavours and no colours from will go away, or an audience that will
and the traditional style of artificial sources. diminish, it’s a focus for our future too,”
production associated with the senior nutrition manager for Kellogg’s
place that matter for example, The Danone of the World, a UK and Ireland Laura Street told New
Siggi’s Icelandic Skyr has built a new brand and a new range of five Nutrition Business. What’s also different
$200 million business in Sweden, yogurts and fermented milks inspired is that the products appear under a new
Denmark and the US on the back by ‘authentic’ recipes from around the brand – W.K. Kellogg – which has a
of its Icelandic identity – but world, launched in the UK in June this packaging design completely different
without ever going near Iceland year. The range includes: from Kellogg’s other cereals.
• Packaging that cultivates the • Greek-inspired Straggisto yogurt
authentic feel of a product • High-protein Icelandic Skyr Emmi Mexican coffee: Swiss-
• Lebanese-inspired Laban based dairy group Emmi’s Caffe Latte
Yoplait’s French-inspired
Oui yoghurt shows the company is
innovating in ways that would not have
been expected from ‘Big Food’ even two

© New Nutrition Business 2018 124 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Authenticity & Provenance

is one of the most ingredients “sourced from 100% wild-

successful chilled caught Alaskan salmon from small family So Good, the
biggest plant milk
single-serve coffee fishermen of the famous Bristol Bay brand in Australia
drinks on the European region of Alaska.” and New Zealand,
highlights the use
market, second only of locally-sourced
almonds as its
to Starbucks. The point of difference
company has taken from rival brands.
Unlike the many
the category in a new plant milks which
use almonds from
direction by creating a California, So
Good is “made
Mexico Edition, made with Australian
with coffee beans Murray Darling
Region Almonds”,
sourced from a finca called with the region
clearly highlighted
La Puebla, in Mexico’s highlands. on a map.
“This,” Emmi says, “offers a unique
and special climate for coffee growing,
BOX 74: PROVENANCE KEY TO EPIC SNACKS
ensuring the best quality flavoursome
beans are produced.” It’s a first-of-its-
kind introduction of provenance into EPIC in the US started with meat-based snacks, and expanded to salmon-based snacks.
the mainstream coffee drink market and The company, which was acquired by General Mills for about $130 million, is very
specific about the source of fish used in its snacks.
the first time a packaged supermarket
product reflects trends present in the café
market and in sales of coffee beans for
home consumption. Take together with
a sugar content of only 7.6g per 100ml,
provenance helps give ‘permission to
indulge’.

Epic protein snack brand: As

Box 74 shows, the very successful brand,
owned by General Mills, communicates
that its Smoke Salmon Snack bar uses

BOX 75 : BIG CITY CONSUMERS SEEK CONNECTION WITH THE SOURCE OF THEIR FOOD

Five Acre Farms was founded in 2010 and sources fresh foods like milk, eggs, fruit juices and
yogurt from sustainable farmers within a 440km radium of New York, Connecticut and New
Jersey. It then distributes the products to more than 150 grocery stores, 75 restaurants and
coffee shops in the city.
Starting with 2 partner farms, it has now 25 – all products are fully traceable to the farm and
the farmers behind it.
Five Acre Farms is now the official milk of Kellogg’s NYC cereal café in Times Square, and its
products are also present in more than 50 Delta Air Lines flights.

© New Nutrition Business 2018 125 www.new-nutrition.com

 10 Key Trends 2019 Authenticity & Provenance

PROVENANCE
CHART 54: TREND DIAMOND – KEY TREND 10, AUTHENTICITY & PROVENANCE

Consumer Pull
5

Competitive Landscape Sales Trends

3

Marketing Strategies Nutrition Science

Regulation Ingredients & Technologies

CHART 55: PRODUCT LIFE-CYCLE – KEY TREND 10, AUTHENTICITY & PROVENANCE

TECHNOLOGY LIFESTYLE MASS-MARKET

CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS

Solid line = sales volumes

SALES

Broken line = unit selling price

10% of consumers 30% of consumers 60% of consumers

© New Nutrition Business 2018 126 www.new-nutrition.com

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