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Determinants of voter turnout in Nsukka Council of Enugu State, South

Eastern Nigeria

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DOI: 10.2478/bog-2019-0027

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 Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, No. 45 (2019): 109–124
http://doi.org/10.2478/bog-2019-0027

BULLETIN OF GEOGRAPHY. SOCIO–ECONOMIC SERIES

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Determinants of voter turnout in Nsukka Council of Enugu State,

South Eastern Nigeria

Cletus Famous Nwankwo CDFMR

University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Faculty of the Social Sciences, Department of Geography, e-mail: [email protected]

How to cite:
Nwankwo, C.F. (2019). Determinants of voter turnout in Nsukka Council of Enugu State, South Eastern Nigeria . Bulletin of Ge-
ography. Socio-economic Series, 45(45): 109-124. DOI: http://doi.org/10.2478/bog-2019-0027

Abstract. Voting is becoming of significance in Nigeria, as in many other coun- Article details:
tries in Africa. Although Nigerian electoral politics has attracted full attention Received: 4 January 2019
from scholars, there is little research on the factors that determine voter turnout Revised: 2 March 2019
in the country at the local level, especially the South-East geopolitical zone (GPZ). Accepted: 27 March 2019
This paper is a stepwise logistic regression analysis of the determinants of voting
in Nsukka council in Enugu State, South-East GPZ of Nigeria. The results show
that age (0.230), education (0.532), marital status (1.355), political trust (1.309)
and partisanship (˗0.570) are significant predictors of voter turnout. The effect of Key words:
age, education, marital status and political trust on voting is positive and statisti- voter turnout
cally significant, but partisanship has a statistically significant negative relationship Voting,
with voting (p<0.01). The paper highlights the importance of local level geograph- Nigeria; elections,
ical differentials in the factors influencing voting in Nigeria. democracy

Contents:
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
2. Theoretical perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
3. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
4. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

© 2019 (Cletus Famous Nwankwo) This is an open access article licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs
License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
110 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124

1. Introduction Resnick and Casale (2011) show that older Afri-

can citizens tend to vote more and express a higher
degree of partisanship than their younger popula-
A system of “rule by the people” is the most basic tion. This finding is in tandem with results from
principle upon which democracy functions. Thus, studies in Western democracies, but the point of de-
the share of the population participating in the “rul- parture is that young Africans are not more like-
ing” through voting in elections is of interest, as it ly to protest than older people. Resnick and Casale
is the essential measure of performance of a democ- (2011) argue that these results bring into question
racy (Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017). The bedrock of the notion that youth are more likely to protest
modern democracy is elections, and low voter turn- when they are frustrated and cast doubt on the va-
out rates might suggest that elections are no more lidity of the electoral process as a vital channel for
considered fundamental to political life. Democ- demonstrating the political choices of young Af-
racies advance the principle of political equality ricans. Another demographic factor that has been
through the idea of voting and that all individuals found to shape voter turnout is gender. Amoateng,
are equal, each having just one vote (Kuenzi and- Kalule-Sabiti and Heaton (2014) show that, in gen-
Lambright, 2007). However, low voter turnout fre- eral, women are two thirds as likely to turn out as
quently means that there is unequal participation, men, with the gender gap in turnout varying exten-
in which participation is lopsided against those with sively across African countries through time.
lower socio-economic status (Lijphart, 1997). Vot- It has been established at least in Western de-
ing is increasingly becoming of great significance mocracies that the socio-economic status (SES) of
in Nigeria, as in many other countries in Africa, individuals, e.g., education, income and occupa-
because elections are the means to attain positions tion, are positively related to their rate of turnout.
of power and the distribution of a state’s resources Some studies in Africa have supported this assump-
(Nwankwo, 2018). tion of the SES model of voting, (e.g., Amoateng et
The manifestation and factors of voter turnout in al. 2014; Larreguy and Marshall, 2017) but others
African democracies have received increased schol- find the contrary (e.g., Kuenzi and Lambright, 2007;
arly attention, albeit relatively little compared with 2011; Isaksson, 2014; Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017).
studies in the Western world and other regions. It Earlier studies indicate that conversely to the antic-
has been argued that several of the important results ipated result based on the SES model, Africans of
of the research on voter turnout in other parts of lower SES are significantly more likely to vote than
the world manifest in Africa. The institutional and those of higher SES (Kuenzi and Lambright, 2007;
political context that influences individuals’ tenden- 2011) and resource-poor Africans vote more than
cies to vote has been highlighted. In this respect, the resource-rich (Isaksson, 2014). One could have
the factors that influence voter turnout in sub-Saha- been sceptical of this finding given that the studies
ran Africa’s multiparty democracies are: concurren- are based on aggregate data that cut across many
cy of presidential and legislative elections; the type countries. However, this result has been supported
of electoral formula; media exposure; and the num- by the work of Nwankwo and Okafor (2017), who
ber of polls a state has had (Kuenzi and Lambright, investigated the determinants of voter turnout us-
2007). Kuenzi and Lambright (2011) demonstrate ing individual-level data in Nigeria and argue that
that among the well-known predictors of voting, the reason for this contradiction is the influence of
age and support for democracy are significant pos- vote-buying that sways people of lower SES to vote.
itive predictors of voter turnout and, importantly, Amoateng et al. (2014) provide evidence that
mobilisation agents are essential in influencing who in Africa higher levels of voting are found among
votes, as party identification is a core factor of vot- more educated and employed people. Based on a
ing. Therefore, while political parties may have poor study of the impact of the Universal Primary Ed-
democratic records, they facilitate getting people to ucation programme on political participation in
turn out in many African countries including Ni- Nigeria, Larreguy and Marshall (2017) provide ev-
geria. idence that education has a positive influence on
voting. The study demonstrates that better-educat-
 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124 111

ed citizens (those who have primary and secondary little research on the factors that determine voter
schooling) engage more in critical forms of politi- turnout in the country, especially at the local indi-
cal participation, e.g., interest in politics, voting and vidual level.
community participation. This result is most robust The recent decline in voter turnout in the South-
among minority groups and those in heterogene- East GPZ has attracted little research attention, and
ous areas lacking own-group identification and no this present study is an attempt to examine the fac-
growing backing for political violence. Here, the tors influencing voter turnout in a local council in
connection between having no increased support the area. This study is critical because of the signif-
for political violence and the effect of education on icant gap in the literature on electoral participation
turnout is at best not clear, however. in Nigeria – there is little research on the local lev-
Mac-Ikemenjima (2017) analysed the connection el analysis of voter turnout. Nwankwo et al. (2017)
between fear of violence and youth voter turnout examined the factors influencing voter abstention in
in sub-Saharan Africa and shows that the relation- the South-East zone of Nigeria and argue that so-
ship is negative after controlling for socio-economic cio-economic factors, social trust and a weak insti-
factors and partisanship, which suggests that fear of tutional framework are among the factors shaping
violence could be a factor in elucidating youth vot- voter abstention. Similarly, Chiamogu and Chia-
er turnout. Bekoe and Burchard (2017) show that, mogu (2018) critically studied the factors associ-
on aggregate, pre-election violence has no signifi- ated with voter turnout in the 2017 gubernatorial
cant influence on voter turnout, but violence may election in Anambra State, South-East GPZ Nigeria
be used to lower participation, to assemble support- and argue that a lack of trust in government and
ers, or to chastise election winners. Electoral mal- political processes and the increased presence of se-
practices such as violence and rigging have been curity agents significantly impacted voter turnout
argued to be relevant to the waning of trust in the negatively.
electoral process among Nigerians (Nwankwo et al., While the works of Nwankwo et al. (2017) and
2017; Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017). Thus, it can be Chiamogu and Chiamogu (2018) provide some pri-
inferred that people of higher SES may not support mary analysis of voter abstention and turnout re-
political violence and, because there is relatively no spectively in the South-East GPZ of Nigeria, this
pre-election or electoral violence, their level of turn- present study examines – among other determi-
out increases. nants of voting – the effect of factors (partisanship,
The study of factors in voter turnout in Nigeria life satisfaction, membership to non-political organ-
is of great importance because despite being Afri- isation) that have not been considered by previous
ca’s largest democracy, with over 180 million people studies in the South-East GPZ of Nigeria. Parti-
(Nwankwo, 2018), voter turnout in Nigeria’s recent sanship or support for a political party has been a
elections, as shown in Fig. 1, has decreased steadily core predictor of voter turnout established in the
since 2003 (Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017). Howev- literature on voter studies, and most studies in Af-
er, there is geographical variation in voter turn- rica have confirmed its influence on voting (Ishi-
out across the country with the South-East and yama and Fox, 2006; Kuenzi and Lambright, 2007;
South-South GPZs experiencing high voter turnout 2011). The impact of life satisfaction on voter turn-
in 2011 (Aiyedogbon and Omotola, 2012) but the out has not been investigated in Nigeria, and al-
South-East recorded a sharp decrease in the 2015 though membership to a non-political organisation
election (Fig. 2). High voter turnout gives legitima- has been examined by Nwankwo and Okafor (2017)
cy to the electoral process and even the democrat- at the national level, the local level manifestation of
ic government. Although Nigerian electoral politics the factor needs more attention.
has attracted full attention, from the analysis of vot- Thus, compared with previous studies in Nigeria,
ing choice pattern (Nwankwo, 2019a) to party sys- the research is pertinent, as it engages a ward-level
tem fragmentation (Nwankwo 2019b) and studies survey that can provide a more detailed analysis of
of spatial dimensions of voter apathy and non-vot- the individual-level manifestation of determinants
ing (Taiwo and Ahmed, 2015; Ojo, Ibeh and Kieghe, of voter turnout which the aggregate data cannot
2018) at the national and aggregate level, there is provide. The primary research was conducted in the
112 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124

20 wards in Nsukka council in Enugu State and the 2. Theoretical Perspectives

analysis utilised stepwise logistic regression, which
makes it possible to control for other factors when
determining the influence of specific variables one In a democracy, voting is the bedrock of political
at a time. The paper demonstrates that age, edu- participation, although there are other ways citizens
cation, marital status, political trust and partisan- participate in politics, such as the signing of peti-
ship are the core predictors of voting in the study tions, political campaigns, political advocacy and
area and highlights the importance of local level ge- protests, among others. Research on voter turn-
ographical differentials in the determinant of vot- out has been influenced by several models, includ-
er turnout in Nigeria. The next section discusses ing the rational choice model, the political efficacy
the theoretical background of the study, followed model and the socio-economic model (Nwank-
by the methodology. The results are then discussed, wo and Okafor, 2017). The rational choice model
followed by the discussion and conclusion. (RCM) explains how the connection between ex-

Fig. 1. Percentage voter turnout in Nigerian presidential elections from 1999 to 2015. Data Source: Nwankwo, Okafor and
Asuoha (2017)

Fig. 2. Percentage voter turnout in Nigeria by GPZ Data Data Source: Nwankwo et al. (2017) for 1999 to 2015; Sahara Re-
porters (2019) for 2019
 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124 113

pected utility and outcomes influences preferences ipation in political activities. The SEM suggests that
for immediate actions. RCM stipulates that a per- people with a high level of SES, such as education,
son chooses results with greater efficiency over out- occupation and income, are more likely to adopt
comes with lesser utility and prefers to engage in psychological orientations that motivate them to
activities that yield more highly valued outcomes turn out. This model was first expounded by Verba
(Aldrich, 1993). Thus, the RCM of voting argues and Nie (1972) as an explanation of mass political
that rational actors calculate the costs and benefits behaviour. Carreras and İrepoğlu (2013) note that
of political participation before deciding to partic- the SEM has indicated continuously that education
ipate, and if the benefits outweigh the costs, then and income have a positive relationship with vot-
you can expect the individual to vote, or to abstain er turnout at the individual level. Prominent stud-
if otherwise (Downs, 1957; Franklin, 2004; Aldrich, ies such as Wolfinger and Rosenstone (1980) and
1993; Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017). Leighley and Nagler (1992) show that people with
The RCM indicates that only individuals who higher SES are more likely to turn out than those
envisage the gains they will obtain to surpass the that are less educated and poorer.
outlays they have to pay will turn out to vote. Nev- Most studies outside Africa indicate that in-
ertheless, voters often do not reason rationally, and dividuals with a higher SES tend to have higher
rationality invariably gives way to reality, because levels of electoral participation as they have bet-
individuals still vote although they are aware of the ter information and have more free time to turn
costs of voting being higher than the benefits. Con- out (e.g., Wolfinger and Rosenstone, 1980; Blais,
sequently, the RCM of voting has faced criticism 2000). In Africa, however, studies indicate that so-
because people envisaging higher prices of voting cio-economic factors do not have a significant pos-
than benefits still turn out (Jung, 2017). A critical itive relationship with turnout (e.g., Kuenzi and
explanation of the betrayal of the assumption of ra- Lambright, 2007; Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017) es-
tionality by reality is the influence of partisanship pecially income and occupation (Nwankwo and
– usually specified as an individual’s psychological Okafor, 2017). Given that the work of Kuenzi and
bonds to a political party or parties (Dalton, 2008). Lambright (2007) focused on many countries, and
Scholars have argued that partisanship is one of the Nwankwo and Okafor (2017) focused on Nigeria
steadiest predictors of voter turnout (e.g., Adams without examining the influences of turnout at the
and Merrill III, 2003; Lewis-Beck et al., 2008; Singh, local level in detail, it is essential to investigate the
2011). Given that individuals with a firm psycholog- effect of SES at the local level, as this present study
ical attachment to a party tend to be robustly enthu- seeks to do. It is known that education is the SES
siastic about partaking in elections (Jung, 2017), it that is most strongly correlated with voter turnout
is pertinent to include the variable measuring par- (Wolfinger and Rosenstone, 1980; Blais, 2000) and
tisanship in the analysis. it is also the primary determinant of earnings and
Nwankwo and Okafor (2017) have shown that social status (Card, 2001; Gallego, 2010). Moreover,
political trust is the most significant factor that de- educational indicators can be better compared than
termines individuals’ likelihood of turnout in Ni- other SES factors, such as income (Gallego, 2010).
geria. This finding emphasises the political efficacy Thus, education is the main SES factor considered
model (PEM) of political participation. According in this study although income is included in the
to the PEM, individuals’ orientation, such as politi- analysis to account for the variable for economic
cal interest, trust in government, and civic duty, are wellbeing, as shall be justified later in this section.
crucial determinants for voter turnout (Moeller et As a variant of the SEM, some literature emphasis-
al., 2014). The most consistent result from these sets es socio-economic distress as a determinant of po-
of indicators is the significant relationship between litical participation. For example, it is argued that
political trust and participation in electoral politics socio-economic pain is the prime basis for political
(Carreras and Castañeda-Angarita, 2014; Nwank- involvement, although different kinds of strain drive
wo and Okafor, 2017). The socio-economic model participation (e.g. Klandermans, van der Toorn and
(SEM) of voter turnout indicates that socio-eco- van Stekelenburg, 2008). Notwithstanding, a com-
nomic status (SES) can determine individual partic- mon ground of the two theses is the emphasis on
114 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124

relative deprivation or objective material conditions. der and voter turnout is followed, and it is hypoth-
In this sense, a person’s feeling of discontentment esised that being male has a higher influence on
with her/his life provides an important rationale for participation than does being female.
political participation (Giugni and Grasso, 2016). Marital status is said to affect electoral partic-
The different strands of mobilisation theorisa- ipation behaviours (Wolfinger and Rosenstone,
tion, such as resource mobilisation theory (Mc- 1980). Generally, it is argued that married people
Carthy and Zald, 1977) and new social movement have higher participation levels than unmarried
theory (Touraine, 1981), have challenged these ear- people (Verba et al., 1995), but it has not been en-
lier socio-economic distress theses, arguing that the tirely straightforward (Miller, Shanks and Shapiro,
distressed individuals’ experience has less bearing 1996), and it has been argued that marriage makes
on participation than several types of resources, e.g., no difference (Highton and Wolfinger, 2001). Even
civic skills, money, time, and access to networks, though married people tend to have higher levels of
via which people can be drafted for political ac- turnout, it has been shown that turnout rate drops
tions. Among these resources, civic skills are the when a spouse dies (Wilensky, 2002). Also, divor-
most vital for swaying political participation. This cees and separated people tend to have lower voting
argument was developed in the Civic Voluntarism rates than when they were married because ending
Model (CVM) as expounded by Verba et al. (1995) a marriage is a traumatic course that often disrupts
and Putnam (2000). In the CVM, the gaining of usual practices, e.g., voting (Wallerstein and Kelley,
public skills occurs in non-political institutions, 2008). Thus, this study does not anticipate that vot-
such as religious institutions, workplaces and vol- ing rates between never-married people and previ-
untary organisations (Verba et al. 1995). The study ously married people will be significantly different
draws on these arguments on political participation and hypothesises that married people will tend to
and includes variables measuring individuals’ lev- vote more than unmarried people. Overall, gender
els of life satisfaction and economic well-being (in- and marital status are not good predictors of turn-
come) and membership in a non-political voluntary out compared with age (Wolfinger and Rosenstone,
organisation. 1980). Nonetheless, their influence on voter turnout
The study also incorporates demographic vari- is tested in the study.
ables: gender, marital status and age – which are Age is an essential socio-demographic character-
predictors of turnout. It has long been argued that istic of voters, and it is envisaged that older eligi-
differences exist between the sexes in voting: wom- ble voters are more likely to turn out than younger
en tend to have lower levels of electoral participa- people because they do not get disorientated as
tion (Wolfinger and Rosenstone, 1980). The lower younger voters do when confronted with differ-
levels of engagement among women have been as- ent party policies and programmes (Carreras and
cribed to structural and situational factors, social İrepoğlu, 2013). The better political experience that
norms, or women’s late enfranchisement (Frank- older citizens have enables them to analyse the var-
lin, 2004; Mayer, 2010). It has been argued that the ious programmes and policy issues political parties
gender gap in voter turnout has decreased in es- are offering as solutions to the difficulties they face
tablished democracies as new cohorts of women (Carreras and İrepoğlu, 2013). In the Nigerian mi-
have entered the electorate (Verba et al., 1997) or lieu, these theories can provide explanations as to
even reversed in several developed countries (Nor- why people turn out to vote and why others abstain.
ris, 2002). Nonetheless, Kostelka, Blais and Giden- The validity of the core variables of these models is
gil (2019) have shown that women tend to vote tested in this study. The variables drawn from the
equally with men in first-order elections but less in models to explain voter turnout in the study area
second-order elections. Studies in Nigeria differ re- and their corresponding hypothesis are presented
garding the gender gap in voter turnout; some find in Table 1.
higher levels of participation among men (e.g., Tai-
wo and Ahmed, 2015) while others find no signif-
icant difference (Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017). In
this study, the traditional argument regarding gen-
 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124 115

Table 1. Variables considered in the study

Variables Hypothesis

Political Trust The higher trust individuals have in government, the more likely they will turn out.

Education The higher education level individuals have, the more likely they will turn out.

Income The higher income level individuals have, the more likely they will turn out.

Life satisfaction The higher life satisfaction level individuals have, the more likely they will turn out.

Membership to a
non-political Individuals who are a member of a non-political organisation are more likely to turn out.
organisation

Partisanship Individuals who support a political party are more likely to turn out.

Marital Status Married individuals are more likely to turn out.

Age Older people are more likely to turn out than younger people.
Gender Males have a higher propensity to turn out.

3. Methodology the level of voter turnout with only the number of

registered voters will not account for those who are
eligible but refrain from voting, which is the crux
This study was conducted in the Nsukka local coun- of this research. Thus, the targeted participants were
cil, one of the councils in Enugu State, Nigeria (Fig. individuals who are eligible to vote (i.e. ≥18 years
3). The area takes its name from the Nsukka town- old). The VAP of the study area is 204,791 (Nwank-
ship, which hosts the University of Nigeria. Nsukka wo et al., 2017). The Taro Yamane (1967: 886) for-
council has twenty electoral wards, as shown in Ta- mula was used to determine the sample size for the
ble 2, and according to the 2006 National Popula- study:
tion Census it has a population of 309,448 with an (1)
estimated population of 405,527 in 2015 (Nwank-
wo et al., 2017). The study engages a cross-section- Note: n is required sample size, N is the population
al survey in the 20 wards of Nsukka council. Data of the study area (i.e. 204,791), e is precision level
for the study were collected using copies of a ques- (0.05 is used)
tionnaire during a field survey in all the wards in The calculation gave a sample size of 400 from
Nsukka council. Trained research assistants (stu- 204,791 VAP, but 25% more than the minimum
dents from the Departments of Geography and Po- needed participants were interviewed (i.e. 400 + 100
litical Science at the University of Nigeria) who are = 500) to account for missing questionnaires dur-
resident in Nsukka helped to administer the ques- ing administration. The 500 participants were inter-
tionnaire. viewed proportionately across the wards (see Table
There is no information on the number of reg- 2). The criteria for selection were eligibility to vote
istered voters by ward, but it is expected that the (i.e., 18 or older), availability at the time of the sur-
wards with more polling units will have more reg- vey and disposition to partake in the study (Ezeibe
istered voters. Thus, the number of participants se- et al., 2017). The study follows the approach used
lected for the study was distributed proportionally by Nwankwo and Okafor (2017) in which the ques-
according to the number of polling units in each tionnaire was administered in randomly selected
ward (see, INEC 2015) as indicated in Table 2. This households on a street to avoid haphazard admin-
study adopts the voting age population (VAP) of the istration and to recognise the areas covered. How-
study area as the sample frame because measuring ever, only one questionnaire was administered in a
116 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124

household to permit more comprehensive coverage do you trust the government?” with three response
of respondents from varied backgrounds (Nwank- options provided, viz. “No trust”, “Little trust” and
wo and Okafor, 2017). The survey was adminis- “High trust”. Stepwise logistic regression was used
tered from November to December 2018, and 434 to establish the influence of the variables in Table
(86.8%) were recovered. 1 on voter turnout. The stepwise logistic regression
The dependent variable was voting and was set was used because it can produce a predictive model
as a dichotomous variable. The independent vari- that is parsimonious and accurate by excluding var-
ables were placed into a categorical scale or were iables that do not contribute to explaining differenc-
dichotomous, depending on the nature of the vari- es in the dependent variable.
ables, as presented in Table 3. The participants were Stepwise logistic regression is like stepwise mul-
asked: “Would you vote if the general elections were tiple regression because it regresses multiple varia-
held today?” with “Yes” and “No” response options bles while simultaneously removing those that are
provided in the questionnaire. Other questions that not important, leaving the variables that best ex-
will reveal the data needed from the participants plain the distribution. Thus, it is designed to find
were also listed on the questionnaire with the re- the most parsimonious set of predictors that are
sponse option to choose from. For example, for po- most effective in predicting the dependent variable
litical trust, the participants were asked: “How much by adding the covariates to the logistic regression

Fig. 3. Enugu State showing Nsukka counci

 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124 117

Table 2. Sampling scheme of the study

Wards No. of Polling Unit Sample Size Questionnaires Returned
Agbemebe/umabor 14 25 20
Akalite 20 36 27
Akpa/ozzi 8 14 14
Alor-uno 6 11 11
Ede-nta 11 20 18
Ede-ukwu 11 20 17
Edem-ani 11 20 17
Eha-ndiagu 14 25 21
Eha-uno 12 21 18
Ejuona/uwani 17 30 26
Ibagwani/ibagwaga Okpaligbo 14 25 21
Ibeku 18 32 26
Ihe 16 28 25
Mkpunano 15 27 21
Nnu 15 27 23
Obimo/ikwoka 13 23 21
Obukpa 10 18 17
Ogbozalla/idi 25 44 38
Okpuje/okutu/anuka 11 20 20

Owerre/umuoyo 20 36 33

Total 500 434

equation one at a time using the statistical criterion variates constant at their sample mean (Pollock III,
of reducing the 2-Log Likelihood error for included 2015). Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences
variables. Given that the models are nonlinear, an (SPSS) were employed for the analyses.
explanation of the impact of a specific factor con-
cerning probability change was given to adequate-
ly evaluate the influence of the variables on turnout 4. Results
(Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017). The mean differences
in predicted values of the probability produced by
possible changes in the covariates of interest were Table 4 presents the logistic regression estimates of
referred to (Górecki, 2011, cited in Nwankwo and the equations explaining voter turnout in the study
Okafor, 2017). The predicted probability of each co- area. The logistic regression predictive model ex-
variate was estimated while holding the other co- cludes four variables, namely gender, income, life
118 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124

Table 3. Coding of variables

Variables Coding
Dependent
1 = voted and 0 = did not vote
variable
Education No education = 0, primary to secondary education = 1, OND, NCE to BSc = 2, PGD to PhD = 3.
Age (years) 18–29 = 1, 30–41 = 2, 42–53 = 3, 54–65 = 4, 66–77 = 5
Gender Gender: Male = 1, Female = 0
Political trust No trust for government = 0, little trust of government = 1, high trust of government = 2.
low income (up to 50,000 Naira) = 1, Moderate income (51,000 to 119,000) = 2, high income
Income
(120,000 and over) = 3.
Partisanship Party member or support a party = 2, not partisan = 1
Membership of
non-political member = 2, non-member = 1
organisation
Marital status Married = 2, not married (never married, divorced, widow(er), separated, etc.) = 1
Life satisfaction low life satisfaction = 1, moderate life satisfaction = 2, high life satisfaction = 3

satisfaction and membership of a non-political or- gree such as HND or bachelor’s degree) are 1.703
ganisation from the model, indicating that they do times more likely to vote than individuals at the
not contribute to explaining differences in the de- next lower level (primary or secondary school cer-
pendent variable. The model shows that five var- tificate) of education. Age also has a robust influ-
iables are essential determinants of voter turnout ence on the odds of voter turnout with a 1.259-fold
in the study area, namely education, age, political increase in the likelihood of voting as age increases
trust, marital status and partisanship. Thus, the re- to the next category. Political trust and being mar-
sults show that education, age, political trust, par- ried show a very robust influence on the probability
tisanship and marital status are core predictors of of voting, with respondents being 3.703 and 3.875
voting, as their effects on voter turnout are signif- times more likely to turn out than those having less
icant at the 95% confidence level. When the logis- faith in government and not being married, respec-
tic regression coefficient (log odds) is greater than tively. The percentage change in the odds for each
zero and the odds ratios are higher than one, the unit of the covariates of voting shows that a one-
relationship between the dependent and independ- unit increment in being married and having trust
ent variable is positive, with an odds rate less than in government increases the likelihood of voting by
one showing a negative association and equal to one 287.5% and 270.3% respectively, while for education
showing no connection (Pollock III, 2015). Thus, and age the equivalent effects are 70.3% and 25.9%,
the odds ratios show that education, age, political respectively. As Table 5 shows, people who have
trust and marital status (i.e., being married) have a high trust in government have the most substantial
positive influence on voting as their specific odds predicted probability of voting, with 33.36%. Highly
rate is higher than one. Gender, partisanship and educated people have 21.99% of the predicted prob-
membership to a non-political organisation have a ability of voting, while married individuals have a
negative effect on voter turnout, as their odds ratios predicted probability of 20.12%. Age and partisan-
are less than one. Interestingly, the result indicated ship have a very low predicted probability of voting,
that although the respondents have some psycho- with 12.97% and 8.15% respectively. These results
logical attachment to political parties, that does not suggest that controlling for other factors, individu-
translate to voting; instead, partisanship has an in- als with higher trust for the government, and those
verse effect on voter turnout. who are educated and married have a high propen-
Furthermore, the results show that citizens at sity to turn out in the study area.
one level of education (people with a graduate de-
 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124 119

Table 4. Logistic regression estimates of determinants of voter turnout

Percentage
Variables Log Odds S.E. Sig. Odd Ratios
change
Political Trust 0.586 0.132 0.000 1.796 79.6
Step 1a
Constant -0.517 0.126 0.000 0.597 -40.3
Political Trust 1.363 0.266 0.000 3.906 290.6
Step 2 b
Marital Status 1.424 0.389 0.000 4.155 315.5
Constant -3.209 0.753 0.000 0.040 -96.0
Education 0.551 0.190 0.004 1.735 73.5
Political Trust 1.341 0.265 0.000 3.824 282.4
Step 3c
Marital Status 1.340 0.389 0.001 3.818 281.8
Constant -3.712 0.776 0.000 0.024 -97.6
Education 0.549 0.191 0.004 1.731 73.1
Political Trust 1.309 0.265 0.000 3.703 270.3
Step 4d Partisanship -0.533 0.205 0.009 0.587 -41.3
Marital Status 1.339 0.388 0.001 3.813 281.3
Constant -2.886 0.830 0.001 0.056 -94.4
Education 0.532 0.193 0.006 1.703 70.3
Age 0.230 0.087 0.008 1.259 25.9
Political Trust 1.309 0.269 0.000 3.703 270.3
Step 5e
Partisanship -0.570 0.207 0.006 0.566 -43.4
Marital Status 1.355 0.393 0.001 3.875 287.5
Constant -3.468 0.871 0.000 0.031 -96.9
N = 434; χ2: 23.045; degrees of freedom = 1; p-value = 0.003; 2LL: 539.492;
Nagelkerke R2 = .170; Cox & Snell R2 = .127; percentage correctly predicted = 62.2

Thus, the study provides some support for the and Nagelkerke R2 of 0.170. However, the maxi-
political efficacy model of voting and the socio-eco- mum likelihood estimation (MLE), i.e., the initial
nomic model. However, it found no substantial sup- model estimating the likelihood of turnout without
port for the civic voluntarism model, as the analysis considering the covariates returned a ˗2-log likeli-
shows that membership of a non-political organisa- hood of 539.492, and after the covariates were in-
tion has neither a significant effect on turnout nor cluded in the model, it returned a ˗2-log likelihood
a high predicted probability. It also finds no sup- of 598.662, indicating that there is an improvement
port for the new strand of socio-economic distress of 59.170, which is significant at the 99% confidence
thesis that emphasises the influence of relative dep- level. Thus, even though the power of the model in
rivation or real material conditions on voting, as explaining voter turnout in the study area is gen-
life satisfaction does not significantly predict voter erally weak, compared with a model that did not
turnout in the study area. Overall, the strength of include the predictors, it improves our ability to
the influence of the explanatory variables on voter predict the likelihood of voting.
turnout is weak with a Cox and Snell R2 of 0.127

Table 5. Predicted probabilities for the determinants of voter turnout in the study area
Covariates Education Age Political Trust Partisanship Marital Status
Predicted probabilities 21.99 12.97 33.36 8.15 20.12
120 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124

5. Discussion ria (Nwankwo et al., 2017; Chiamogu and Chiamo-

gu, 2018).
The findings are consistent with previous stud-
This study sought to investigate the determinant of ies that argue that membership of a non-political
voter turnout at the local level in the South-East organisation does not have a significant effect on
GPZ of Nigeria based on primary research in Nsuk- turnout in Nigeria (Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017)
ka council of Enugu State. The paper found support and cast doubt on the suitability of the civic volun-
for most of the findings of studies on voter turnout tarism model (Verba et al., 1995; Putnam, 2000) in
in other parts of Africa and other world regions. the analysis of voter turnout in the study area. The
It shows evidence for the political efficacy model, study finds the contrary to studies showing a signifi-
the socio-economic model and the effect of some cant difference in gender effect on turnout rates. For
demographic factors, particularly age and marital example, Amoateng et al. (2014) show that in gen-
status. Previous studies on the determinants of vot- eral women are two thirds as likely to turn out as
er turnout in Nigeria and other countries in Africa men, with the gender gap in turnout varying exten-
show little support for the socio-economic model of sively across African countries through time. This
voting (Kuenzi and Lambright, 2007, 2011; Isaks- paper finds gender to have no significant effect on
son, 2014; Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017). However, voting. Nonetheless, it is consistent with previous
this paper found some support for it, though not all studies that show that older African citizens tend to
socio-economic factors are good predictors of vot- vote more (Resnick and Casale, 2011), but wheth-
ing. Only education has a robust positive effect on er older citizens express a higher degree of parti-
turnout. The influence of this socio-economic fac- sanship than the younger population is beyond the
tor on turnout seems to suggest that there could scope of this article. However, it found evidence for
be geographical differentials in the elements of vot- the influence of partisanship, but it has a negative
ing in Nigeria because previous studies that found relationship with turnout, suggesting that although
little support for socio-economic factors were con- the people in the study area do have some support
ducted at the national level (Nwankwo and Okafor, for a specific political party, it does not translate
2017) and cross-country (e.g., Kuenzi and Lam- to voting on Election Day. This finding is incred-
bright, 2007, 2011; Isaksson, 2014). ible given the growing support for partisanship as
The study finds support for the studies that pro- a core predictor of political participation in Afri-
vide evidence that higher levels of voting are found ca (Ishiyama and Fox, 2006; Kuenzi and Lambright,
among the more educated in Africa (Amoateng et 2007, 2011). Contextually, the rebirth of the Biafra
al., 2014) and specifically in Nigeria (Larreguy and independence movement can be a very potent fac-
Marshall, 2017). Although Nsukka is itself a cen- tor here, as the pro-Biafra independence movement
tre for education, given the presence of the Uni- in South Eastern (South-South GPZ and South-East
versity of Nigeria, the population of the South-East GPZ) Nigeria has consistently called for an election
GPZ of Nigeria have higher socio-economic status- boycott in the region since 2015. In Enugu State of
es than other GPZs in the country (Madu, 2006, South-East GPZ, most of the voters have supported
2010). Thus, the socio-economic effect of the South- only one party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
East population could have been neutralised by the since the return to democratic rule in 1999 at all
people of other zones in the country-wide and levels. So, while the people in the study area have
cross-country studies. Therefore, there is a need some degree of psychological attachment to the
for consideration of geographical differences in lo- PDP, the attachment does do not necessarily sway
cal level factors of voting in Nigeria and Africa at them to turn out on Election Day.
large. This paper provides a very strong support for
studies emphasising the influence of political trust
on voting (e.g., Carreras and Castañeda-Angarita,
2014; Moeller et al., 2014) and specifically in Ni-
geria (e.g., Nwankwo and Okafor, 2017) including
a few that focus on the South-East GPZ of Nige-
 Cletus Famous Nwankwo / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 45 (2019): 109–124 121

6. Conclusions attend to the seeming cause for disaffection in the

South-East GPZ: inadequate political inclusion, and
the need for improvement to the infrastructure, e.g.,
In conclusion, this study has investigated the de- the Enugu-Onitsha expressway, among others.
terminants of voter turnout in Nsukka council of
Enugu State, South-East GPZ of Nigeria and tests
the effect of age, education, marital status, political
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The proofreading of articles, positively reviewed and approved for publishing in the ‘Bulletin of
Geography. Socio-economic Series’, was financed from the funds of the Ministry of Science and Higher
Education earmarked for activities popularizing science, in line with Agreement No 695/P-DUN/2018.

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