Opendoor-Overview SPAC 11.15.2020-AnalystPresentation
Opendoor-Overview SPAC 11.15.2020-AnalystPresentation
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Agenda
Business overview
Eric Wu, Co-Founder and CEO
Product overview
Tom Willerer, Chief Product Officer
Growth
Eric Wu, Co-Founder and CEO
Financial overview
Carrie Wheeler, Chief Financial Officer
Q&A
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“Incredible upgrade opportunity”
Eric Wu Andrew Low Ah Kee Megan Meyer Toolson Daniel Morillo Carrie Wheeler Tom Willerer Ian Wong
Co-Founder, CEO President Head of Operations Chief Investment Officer Chief Financial Officer Chief Product Officer Co-Founder, CTO
Head of Product, Trulia COO, GoDaddy Ops, Bain Capital Managing Director, Citadel Partner, TPG VP Product, Netflix Head of Data Science, Square
Brian Tolkin Mark Kinsella Paul Smith Nadia Aziz Rajiv Krishnarao
Head of Seller Product Head of Engineering Head of Design Head of Mortgages Head of Finance
Product, Uber Director, Lyft Director, Uber VP, Capital One Director, Uber
David Sinsky Nelson Ray, PhD Reema Batta Brad Bonney Dod Fraser
Head of New Products Head of DS Research Head of Marketing Market Operations Head of Capital Markets/Risk
Product, FourSquare Data Scientist, Google Marketing, Expedia Director T&S, Airbnb Principal, TPG
Judd Schoenholtz Mike Chen Annie Tang Merav Bloch Christy Schwartz
Head of Buyer Product Head of Pricing Engineering Design Manager Head of Operational Excellence Corporate Controller
CEO, OpenListings Sr Engineer, Twitter Design, Google Director, Square Controller, Yodlee
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Unlock
homeownership
for millions of
Americans
$4.7
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18,799
Markets
80K
Homeowners served $1.8 7,470
Homes sold
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Note: Markets, homeowners served and homes sold metrics since Company inception; homeowners served defined as number of home transactions
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The largest, undisrupted market in the U.S.
31%
15-50 annual
$1.6T/yr 66%
transactions
Note: Data sourced from public company filings, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors
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We’ve rebuilt the entire real estate service stack
Customer
Product Pricing Operations
Experience
Simple, certain and Real-time models to Inspections, repairs,
fast experience for predict the value of a renovations, and Centralized sales and
customers home maintenance of homes support teams to manage
the transaction end-to-end
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Product
Tom Willerer
Chief Product Officer
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Process is complex, uncertain, time-consuming and offline
Today, 89% of buyers and sellers use an agent, and this is their experience Costing as much as 12%+ of the transaction
Item Cost
Decide to Find an agent Repair and prep
move Interview and find Repair, renovate and prep Broker commission $13,750
a listing agent home
Buyer inspection Negotiate repairs Search for new home Double mortgage $2,500
An inspector finds Seller has to negotiate the Visit 12 occupied homes
issues with the homes price or fix the issues
Moving costs $1,259
Staging $1,185
Settle for available home Miss out on dream home Wait for close
Make offer with no Make an offer with 20% of deals fall through
contingencies multiple contingencies Home warranty $936
Complex Simple
Average of 6 counter
Integrated digital experience
parties to manage
Uncertain Certain
~20% of transactions fall through
Guaranteed close on your timeline
Inflexible timelines to closing
No unforeseen costs
Slow Fast
Average of 87 days to close
Flexible closing in as fast as 3 days
on the market
Note: Fall-through, days-on-market and visitors / listing based on analysis of MLS and Company data
Offer comparison reflects a comparison of Company’s listing and sell direct products (figures based on illustrative home). Unforeseen costs assume 1% staging costs, 2% seller concessions and 1% overlap costs (moving, double mortgage)
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Receive an offer
and sell on your timeline
Online cash offer
Digital closing
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New experience to
search, visit and buy
thousands of homes
Self-tour homes
Financing in-app
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Home sellers are choosing Opendoor
High intent customers High conversion Real seller conversion vs. fees
34%
46%
44%
40%
38%
80% 35%
And at 6% fees
Browsing for a 30% 31%
quote
2019 real seller conversion conversion is 44%+
25% 26%
23% 24%
90%
Even at 10% fees
Real sellers
Note: Based on Company data for 2019. Real seller defined as unique lead who either accepts Opendoor offer or lists home on MLS within 60 days of receiving an offer
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Our customers want convenience and certainty
62%
of sellers cite convenience and certainty
63%
of Opendoor sellers also looking
as primary reasons to sell to Opendoor to buy another home
49%
of Opendoor sellers have kids
(higher than national average)
50%
of Opendoor customers are
selling their first home
Note: Sellers looking to buy another home from September 2018 Opendoor closed seller survey; all other metrics from October 2020 Opendoor closed seller survey
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And are delighted by our experience
70
Net Promoter Score
Note: NPS metrics based on Company data from last twelve months, public filings and 3rd-party research
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Pricing and Technology Platforms
Ian Wong
Co-Founder, CTO
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Pricing & data science objectives
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Accuracy through proprietary, structured, hyper-local data
Third party + in-house / offline data Feature level home data
Bedrooms
145
MLS transaction
Market data
+$15.0K from 2 to 3
Roofing
On-site inspections
Home assessment detail
Visitor traffic
25M Garage
Home level data inputs +$4.5K / space
Time spent in home
Appliances
1B
Historical underwriting +$3.9K for stainless steel
Hardwood floors
+$1.5 / sq ft
Note: On-site inspections and home-level adjustment metrics reflect to-date company data as of August 2020; feature price adjustments are indicative
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With leading edge pricing models and tooling
Resale price prediction performance
(absolute delta in %)
Meaningful
improvements
in accuracy
Acquisition
Resale
Offer automation rate
63%
Note: Accuracy data based on expected resale price at time of underwriting vs. realized sale price. Automation rate based on percentage of offers sent without human intervention
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Highly scalable, predictive & accurate pricing engine
Superior inventory health and risk profile Underwriting enhancements as cities mature
% Listings > 150 days on market City Contribution Margin over time (cumulative)
City maturation
Note: Days on market calculated as of month-end; MLS range based on Company estimates for current operating markets
City contribution based on quarterly acquisition contract cohorts for a new market launched in 2018
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Operations and Fulfillment
Megan Meyer Toolson
Head of Operations
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Low cost, repeatable and scalable transaction platform
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The journey of a home from offer to resale
First offer sent Home acquired Home listed Resale contract Home resold
Sales + Assessment Flexible Reno / Repair Potential buyer Offer Buyer Buyer Flexible
support close self-tours negotiation inspection mortgage close
Internal
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Cost improvements in home repairs due to superior
operational processes and software
Eliminating repair overruns Reducing pre-list days Opendoor Scout
App to manage all home ops workflows
82% 50%
decrease decrease
Note: Performance data on repair overruns and pre-list days based on Opendoor acquisition cohorts
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Centralization & automation driving ongoing cost reductions
Centralization & automation Continued reduction in net cost structure (first 6 markets)
Transactions / person
~150bps improvement
Note: Opendoor productivity based on 2019 total closes and average operator headcount; traditional agent based on National Association of Realtors report
Net cost structure based on transaction costs, holding costs, buyer broker commissions and interest expense, net of services contribution
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Growth
Eric Wu
Co-founder, CEO
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Our first 6 markets reached $2.7B run-rate revenue in 1Q20
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Markets
3.2%
$206M run-rate revenue
1.9% market share $388M run-rate revenue
5.5% market share
Las Vegas
$664M run-rate revenue Raleigh-Durham
Market share $1.0B run-rate revenue 4.6% market share
4.2% market share
$2.7B
Phoenix Atlanta
Note: Market share based on Company resales and MLS transaction data for respective markets as of 1Q20. 1Q20 run rates do not reflect the full impact of COVID-19; see Summary Financials for full-year 2020 projections
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Today, we are in 21 markets and just scratching the surface
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Portland
Minneapolis-St.Paul
Markets
2.0%
Sacramento Salt Lake City
Denver
Las Vegas
Raleigh-Durham
Market share Nashville Charlotte
Los Angeles Riverside
$5.0B
Phoenix Atlanta
Tucson
Dallas-Fort Worth
Jacksonville
1Q20 Run-rate revenue Austin
Houston Orlando
Tampa
San Antonio
Note: Market share based on Company resales and MLS transaction data for respective markets as of 1Q20. 1Q20 run rates do not reflect the full impact of COVID-19; see Summary Financials for full-year 2020 projections
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Our current playbook takes us to $50B in revenue
Seattle
4%
Tacoma Spokane
Kennewick
Portland
Salem
Boston
Boise Minneapolis-St.Paul
Market share Grand Buffalo Hudson Valley Providence
Long Island
Milwaukee Rapids Detroit Newark
Redding Trenton
Cleveland
Chicago
100
Ogden Canton Pittsburgh Philadelphia
Reno Omaha
Columbus Baltimore
Salt Lake City
Sacramento Ft Collins Indianapolis Washington, DC Dover
Oakland Stockton Provo-Orem Greeley Cincinnati
Boulder Charlottesville
Modesto Denver
Kansas City Louisville Richmond Hampton Roads
Colorado Springs St. Louis
Hanford Lexington
Visalia
Markets Bakersfield
Las Vegas
Nashville Knoxville
Raleigh-Durham
Charlotte
Ventura Tulsa Wilmington
Los Angeles Riverside Santa Fe
Oklahoma City Memphis
$50B
Orange County Albuquerque
San Diego El Centro Phoenix Atlanta Charleston
Yuma Birmingham
Tucson Savannah
Dallas-Fort Worth
Killeen Jacksonville
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With a U.S. market potential of $1.3T
Seattle
5M
Tacoma Spokane
Kennewick
Portland
Salem
Boston
Minneapolis-St.Paul
Annual homes sold
Boise
Grand Buffalo Hudson Valley Providence
Milwaukee Rapids Long Island
Detroit Newark
Redding Trenton
Cleveland
Chicago
87%
Ogden Canton Pittsburgh Philadelphia
Reno Omaha
Columbus Baltimore
Salt Lake City
Sacramento Ft Collins Indianapolis Washington, DC Dover
Oakland Stockton Provo-Orem Greeley Cincinnati
Boulder Charlottesville
Modesto Denver
Kansas City Louisville Richmond Hampton Roads
Colorado Springs St. Louis
Hanford Lexington
Visalia
Homes in buy box of $100K Bakersfield
Las Vegas
Nashville Knoxville
Raleigh-Durham
Charlotte
Ventura
to $750K Santa Fe Tulsa Wilmington
Los Angeles Riverside Memphis
Albuquerque Oklahoma City
Orange County
San Diego El Centro Phoenix Atlanta Charleston
$1.3T
Yuma Birmingham
Tucson Savannah
Dallas-Fort Worth
Killeen Jacksonville
Austin Baton Rouge Ocala
Houston New Orleans
Total annual GMV San Antonio Orlando
Note: Annual homes sold and sales distribution per National Association of Realtors (NAR)
Gross Merchandise Value = annual homes sold x $310k average sales price x 87%. Individual metrics per NAR
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Track record of new market launches
1.5%
Market share
Scalable pricing systems
0.8%
Mature market data improves pricing in new markets
0.5%
Small, efficient in-market launch teams
0.3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month of operation
Note: Market share based on Company resale closes and MLS transaction data
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The Future
Eric Wu
Co-founder, CEO
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Early stages of the digital transformation in real estate
Market leader
Note: Online penetration metrics are based on public filings and third party research; online penetration for real estate based on available iBuyer information
Market capitalization values are approximated as of November 11, 2020
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COVID-19 has accelerated shifts in consumer behavior
Customers are
prioritizing
Customers are
demanding digital Opendoor
safety first experiences
provides a digital,
contact-less way
to buy and sell a
De-urbanization Demand for home
is occurring as housing in our
buyers avoid markets is
dense areas strengthening
36
Consumers demand digital experiences for
the services that revolve around the home
Financing
Insurance
Warranty
Upgrades
Home maintenance
Moving services
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As the market leader, we are just getting started
Today Tomorrow
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Financial Overview
Carrie Wheeler
CFO
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Financial overview
Unit economics
Historical performance
Projections
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We have proven, positive unit economics
(2.6%)
(0.7%) $11K/home
7.3%
$8K/home $8K/home
4.0% $5K/home
3.0% 3.1%
1.9%
Adjusted Selling Costs Holding Costs Contribution Contribution Margin Contribution Contribution Margin
Gross Margin Margin After Interest Margin After Interest
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The vast majority of our markets are CM positive
Contribution Margin per home by market (1Q20)
$11K /
home
$8K / home
TotalCo Contribution Margin
90%
4.0% of markets are CM positive
Phoenix
Note: All metrics presented are non-GAAP, see reconciliation in Appendix. Based on 1Q20 performance for 19 markets. Excludes ramping markets with fewer than 50 resale closes in 1Q20
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Demonstrated success in adding high margin services
First proof point with title & escrow Adjacent services roadmap
8,157
7,031 Recently launched
57.8%
36.1% 4,720
3,951 Buy with Opendoor $5,000
40%
21.6%
2,381 List with Opendoor $3,750
5.7% 1,134 20%
510 To be launched
103
Note: Attach rate based on total acquisition and resale closes in markets where Company title product is active, beginning 3Q17
Active adjacent services Contribution Margin / home based on Company forecasts assuming $250K home. To be launched category reflects Company estimates
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Significant margin upside from additional services and cost
optimization
2.4%
Ancillary Vehicle
Gross Margin Gross Margin
1.5%
7.0%
3.1%
Ancillary Vehicle
Gross Margin Gross Margin
18,799
$4.7
%
%
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59
+1
+1
R
R
AG
AG
C
C
7,470 (4.6%)
$1.8
3,127
$0.7 (7.1%)
(8.0%)
Note: Adjusted Gross Profit and Adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP metrics, see reconciliation in Appendix for historical numbers
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2021 Inventory and Revenue trajectory
H1 H2
Inventory
~80%
~65%
Revenue
52%
48% Typical H1 range
t ~35%
~20%
Revenue performance highly Expect strong sequential Inventory dynamics in 2020 and 2021
correlated with prior period- revenue growth throughout will drive revenue cadence for next
end inventory levels 2021 as we rebuild inventory year
Note: All ensuing inventory and Revenue data points indexed to 4Q19 Inventory
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Well capitalized with scalable, efficient financing in place
L + ~350
Proven ability to scale $551 Cash (5)
capacity and reduce costs L + ~250
• Increased advance rate from ~80% to ~100%
• Decreased interest spread from ~650 to ~250 Opendoor Expected net Pro Forma
2016 2018 2020
(2) (3) Adjusted Equity (4) transaction Adjusted Equity (6)
Advance rate Senior debt cost
proceeds
Note: (1) As of September 30, 2020, $3.4bn in total borrowing capacity with $2.0bn in committed capacity. Debt facilities are restricted use for the purchase of homes
(2) Advance rate and senior debt cost are representative. Advance rate represents the combined senior and mezzanine advance on the purchase price of homes at time of acquisition
(3) Interest rates presented are an approximate average, weighted by senior bank committed capacity
(4) Adjusted Equity is a non-GAAP metric. As of September 30 2020, Adjusted Equity was equal to $673M in GAAP equity plus $6M in Warrant Liabilities
(5) Cash includes Unrestricted Cash and Marketable Securities as of September 30, 2020
(6) Assumes no redemptions 48
Summary financials
2017 2018 2019 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P
Total Revenue ($B) $0.7 $1.8 $4.7 $2.5 $3.5 $6.2 $9.8
% YoY Growth 109% 159% 158% (47%) 38% 79% 58%
Adjusted Gross Profit ($M) $66 $146 $297 $190 $269 $521 $892
% Margin 9.3% 7.9% 6.3% 7.6% 7.8% 8.4% 9.1%
Contribution Profit ($M) $31 $65 $92 $90 $142 $290 $539
% Margin 4.4% 3.5% 1.9% 3.6% 4.1% 4.7% 5.5%
% YoY Growth - 107% 42% (2%) 58% 104% 86%
Contribution Margin After Interest ($M) $24 $43 $27 $60 $116 $239 $458
% Margin 3.4% 2.4% 0.6% 2.4% 3.3% 3.9% 4.7%
% YoY Growth - 82% (36)% 118% 93% 106% 92%
Note: Adjusted Gross Profit, Contribution Margin, Contribution Margin After Interest and Adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP metrics, see reconciliation in Appendix for historical numbers
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Breakdown of expected growth drivers
$9.8B $539M
Services
New Services
markets
New
markets
$3.5B Existing
markets Existing
$142M
markets
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Long-term margin targets
52
Q&A
53
Appendices
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Non-GAAP Reference
Total Revenue Transaction Revenue (Net Resale Price x Homes Sold) + Ancillary Product Revenue
Less: Net Purchase Price Cost of Revenue Headline Purchase Price net of Service Charge
Less: Net Repairs Cost of Revenue Reno / repair spend net of any repair charges to seller
Less: Ancillary Product COGS Cost of Revenue COGS related to ancillary products such as Title & Escrow
Adjusted Gross Profit Gross Profit related to homes sold in a specific period
Less: Holding Costs Sales, marketing, and operations Property taxes, utilities, insurance, cleaning, and HOA dues
Less: Selling Costs Sales, marketing, and operations Buyer broker commission, other transaction costs
Less: Marketing Spend Sales, marketing, and operations Online, offline, and PR spend
Less: Operations Spend Sales, marketing, and operations Primarily related to customer sales, support, and home operations
Less: Timing adjustments / other Sales, marketing, and operations Primarily related to costs for homes in inventory vs. resale cohort
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Non-GAAP reconciliations
Annual 9 Months Ended Quarterly
2017 2018 2019 9/30/2019 9/30/2020 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20
GAAP Gross Profit ($M) $66 $133 $301 $227 $181 $91 $55 $36
Adjustments:
Adjusted Gross Profit $66 $146 $297 $226 $173 $89 $51 $33
Adjusted Gross Margin 9.3% 7.9% 6.3% 6.5% 7.4% 7.1% 6.9% 9.8%
Direct Selling Costs ($26) ($62) ($149) ($111) ($68) ($37) ($22) ($9)
Holding Costs on Sales - Current Period ($7) ($16) ($43) ($29) ($15) ($5) ($7) ($4)
Holding Costs on Sales - Prior Period ($2) ($3) ($13) ($13) ($11) ($9) ($2) $0
Contribution Profit $31 $65 $92 $74 $79 $39 $20 $20
Contribution Margin 4.4% 3.5% 1.9% 2.1% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 5.8%
Interest on Homes Sold - Current Period ($6) ($18) ($51) ($35) ($17) ($7) ($7) ($3)
Interest on Homes Sold - Prior Periods ($2) ($3) ($13) ($13) ($10) ($9) ($2) $0
Contribution Profit After Interest $24 $43 $27 $25 $51 $23 $12 $16
Contribution Margin After Interest 3.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.6% 4.8%
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Inventory profile and management
84 mo
~35%
60 mo
24 mo
3-4 mo 12 mo
of inventory under contract to
9 mo
be resold at any given time,
Opendoor "Fix & Flip" Single family
rental
Non-performing
loans
Homebuilder Performing
mortgages
reducing risk profile
$172
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Residential real estate prices move gradually
+3%
1Q75 2Q20
Note: Home price movements from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) All-Transactions Home Price Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
(1) Seasonally adjusted annualized rate from National Association of Realtors data
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