Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15

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Earth-Science Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/earscirev

Invited review

Hydroclimatic variability on the Indian subcontinent in the past

millennium: Review and assessment
Yama Dixit ⁎, Sampat K. Tandon 1
Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Paleoclimate records spanning the past millennium show manifestations of two distinct climate anomalies – the
Received 12 February 2016 Medieval Warm Period (MWP), also known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) in the context of tropical
Received in revised form 25 July 2016 and sub-tropical regions, followed by the Little Ice Age (LIA). The occurrence of these warm and cool periods dif-
Accepted 1 August 2016
fers from region to region, in terms of timing, duration and magnitude of the temperature anomalies. PAGES 2K
Available online 6 August 2016
consortium (2013) compiled global temperature estimates for the last two millennia; however, the Indian sub-
Keywords:
continent remained under-represented in this work. A substantial body of evidence and insights exist, based on
Indian Summer Monsoon traditional and novel proxy data as well as modeling, which has revealed intriguing new aspects of the recon-
Little Ice Age (LIA) structed climate of the last millennium in the Indian subcontinent. Here, we present a synthesis of the past mil-
Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) lennium hydroclimate variability in India inferred from proxy records from regions affected by the Indian
Last millennium Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the Westerlies. The possible physical mechanisms linked to the moisture variations
Medieval Warm Period (MWP) during the past millennium are also discussed. The aim of this work is to improve our current understanding and
Indian subcontinent stress the gaps that exist in the knowledge of climate variability in the last millennia in one of the most populous
Westerlies
regions of the world. We find that although there were no globally synchronous warm or cold intervals that de-
fine a MCA or LIA on the Indian subcontinent, a pattern of generally coherent regional precipitation variation dur-
ing MCA and LIA period can be observed. The reconstructions from the ISM regime show generally wet conditions
between 900 and 1350 CE (MCA), punctuated in some regions of India by megadroughts, which was followed by
relatively dry period during the global LIA interval from 1500 to 1800 CE, punctuated by ‘wet rain spells’ in the
Central Himalayas. In the Westerlies-dominated regions, very limited data restricts our understanding of rainfall
variability during the MCA period; however, the LIA period was characterized by increased precipitation in these
regions. The summer temperature reconstructions closely follow the ASIA 2K temperature reconstructions and
also the global temperature trends. On the contrary, spring temperatures in the western Himalayas show an op-
posite trend with a rapid cooling during the 20th century. Changes in local sea surface temperature (SST) fields
and other external boundary conditions like ENSO are suggested to play a major role for summer monsoon var-
iations during the MCA-LIA period. Cooler oceans and continental temperatures are suggested to have pushed the
low pressure systems associated with the Westerlies further south to be carried by the southern winter jet stream
along the southern margin of the Tibetan Plateau bringing more precipitation in northern India during the LIA
period. For the 20th century decreasing trend of ISM, increased anthropogenic atmospheric aerosol loading
over south Asia is a possible causal factor.
© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2. Modern climate of the Indian subcontinent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
4. Results and discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
4.1. Hydroclimatic variability within various climate zones on multi-centennial timescale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

⁎ Corresponding author at: IFREMER, Laboratoire Environnements Sédimentaires, BP70, 29280 Plouzané, France.
E-mail address: [email protected] (Y. Dixit).
1
Now at Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, IISER Campus, Bhauri, Bhopal, India.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.001
0012-8252/© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
2 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15

4.1.1. Variability within the Indian Summer Monsoon regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

4.1.2. Variability within the Westerlies regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
4.2. Intra-archival coherence in speleothems in the ISM zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
4.3. Temperature variation on the Indian subcontinent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4.4. Possible mechanisms for the hydroclimate variability during the past millennium. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
5. Conclusions and summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Acknowledgement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

1. Introduction used for Asia in the PAGES 2K study included four short-term tree
ring records from the Indian subcontinent since the beginning of
The mean global temperatures are widely recognized to be rising the 16th century to present. Therefore, a discontinuous picture of cli-
since the mid-19th century (Crowley, 2000; Esper et al., 2002; Jones mate variability was taken from India, while the MCA and LIA signal
and Mann, 2004; Mann et al., 1999; Moberg et al., 2005; Osborn and recorded in various other archives was poorly documented.
Briffa, 2004). Our society is therefore increasingly interested in under- The MWP/MCA and LIA periods are defined in terms of temperature
standing the future climate variability and in determining whether anomalies observed in the Northern Hemisphere, however in the tro-
there are clues that can be drawn based on the patterns of the past cli- pics where monsoon plays an important role in determining the region-
mate changes. Anthropogenic global warming is a general term, based al climate, these temperature anomalies primarily impact monsoonal
on averages for the global temperature changes during the so-called dynamics and hence are expressed as hydroclimatic variability.
'Anthropocene' period. However, climate variations at continental to Trenberth et al. (2003) showed that an increase in temperature is asso-
sub-continental scale, are more relevant to the regional ecosystems ciated with enhanced moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere that
and societies than globally averaged conditions (Wanner et al., 2008). consequently changes the amount and intensity of precipitation
In this context, studying the last millennium climate variability at re- (Trenberth et al., 2003). Furthermore, globally averaged land precipita-
gional scale can serve as a benchmark for comparisons with climate tion records show around 9 mm increase in precipitation during the
model simulations at a similar scale aimed at understanding 20th centu- 20th century (New et al., 2001). Therefore, increasing evidence of
ry climate change; this may also help to distinguish between the natural 20th century global warming implies severe changes in the hydrological
vs anthropogenic forcings. cycle over the monsoon Asia.
Previous studies report centennial- to millennial-scale changes in Recently, Chen et al. (2015) synthesized the most up-to-date re-
the ISM during the Holocene from the Arabian Sea (e.g. Gupta et al., cords available from the Asian monsoon system to understand the
2003; Staubwasser et al., 2003), the Arabian Peninsula (e.g. Fleitmann hydroclimatic variability in the past millennium and explored the
et al., 2007; Fleitmann et al., 2003; Neff et al., 2001), and the Indian sub- possible underlying physical mechanisms (Chen et al., 2015).
continent (e.g. Berkelhammer et al., 2012; Dixit et al., 2015; Dixit et al., Rehfeld et al. (2013) used network analysis of paleoclimate records
2014a; Dixit et al., 2014b; Dixit, 2013; Dutt et al., 2015; Nakamura et al., from the Indian subcontinent and China to study the internal dynam-
2015); relatively fewer records exist, for the past millennium. Globally, ics of the Asian monsoon system during the late Holocene focusing
paleoclimate records spanning the past millennium are characterized as on the MCA and LIA periods (Rehfeld et al., 2013). Twelve records
including some manifestation of a warm period from 900 to 1300 CE, from various archives were used from the Indian subcontinent to il-
known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) or the Medieval lustrate a strong ISM influence on the East Asian Summer Monsoon
Warm Period (MWP) followed by a cool Little Ice Age (LIA) from 1500 during the MCA and weak ISM circulation during the cold LIA. Fol-
to 1850 CE (Graham et al., 2011). Previous reviews of climate variability lowing this, multi-proxy records and model simulations from the In-
during the past millennium have shown these warm and cold periods dian subcontinent were used to understand the mechanisms
are quite conspicuous in the Northern latitudes, and also emphasized involved in shaping the climate of the Indian subcontinent
the spatial and temporal heterogeneities that exist globally (Bradley et (Polanski et al., 2014). Polanski et al. (2014) demonstrated that the
al., 2003; Cronin et al., 2010; Grove, 2001; Ljungqvist et al., 2012; western and Central Himalayas are influenced by the extra-tropical
Ljungqvist, 2009; Mann et al., 2009; Wanner et al., 2008). Grove Westerlies during winters while the eastern Himalayas have a strong
(2001) identified the LIA as a time interval from 1500 to 1850 CE that influence of the thermal gradient between the Bay of Bengal and the
was composed of several periods, each lasting several decades, with Indian subcontinent; and Central India is primarily influenced by the
higher glacial extents. sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Arabian Sea. This
Recently, the PAGES 2K consortium used past temperatures for study highlights the necessity of regional scale division of the Indian
seven continental-scale regions to understand the spatio-temporal subcontinent on the basis of the moisture-source systems while
pattern in climate variability during the past two millennia and sug- studying the climate variability, a novel approach for understanding
gested generally colder conditions during the LIA than those preva- the past millennium climate on the Indian subcontinent.
lent during medieval times (PAGES 2K consortium, 2013). During Here we present a detailed synthesis of the hydroclimate variabil-
both intervals, distinct hydroclimatic anomalies have been identified ity in the Indian subcontinent during the past millennia inferred
on regional and global scales (e.g. Cook et al., 2007; Feng and Hu, from available up-to-date comprehensive multi-proxy moisture/
2008; Graham et al., 2011; Ljungqvist et al., 2012; Newton et al., precipitation records. The records are analyzed on the basis of the
2006; Seager et al., 2007; Wanner et al., 2015 and references primary source of rainfall in the region. We also discuss the intra-re-
therein). Statistical analysis also demonstrated that the MCA and gional comparison of various proxy records that are available and
LIA intervals are not synchronous globally and that the ‘specific also make intra-archival comparison within the ISM dominated
timing of peak warm and cold intervals varies regionally, with zone. Also, in Section 4 an attempt is made to assess and add critical
multi-decadal variability resulting in regionally specific temperature new aspects about the temperature variability recorded in the Indian
departures from an underlying global cooling trend’ (PAGES 2K subcontinent. Finally, we present a qualitative discussion on the pos-
consortium, 2013). However, the temperature variations on the Indi- sible cause-effect relation of the moisture patterns in the Indian sub-
an subcontinent during the past one to two millennia remained continent with the global climate variability and their possible
under represented in the analysis. The temperature reconstructions underlying physical mechanisms.
 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15 3

2. Modern climate of the Indian subcontinent During winters, the upper Westerlies jet stream over Asia branches
into two currents, one north and the other south of the Tibetan plateau
The typical present-day Indian climate is characterized by warm and due to the topographic barrier to airflow (Liang et al., 2015). The stron-
wet summers with about 70% of annual rainfall in most part of India fall- ger southern branch over northern India corresponds to a strong latitu-
ing from June to September and the remainder during the mild and dry dinal thermal gradient (from November to April). The winter
winters. The present-day climate is strongly governed by the annual lat- depressions are steered over northern India by the upper jet and the
itudinal migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Fig. lows penetrate across the Middle East from the Mediterranean and are
1). In spring the ITCZ moves northward across the Indian Ocean and primary sources of rainfall for northern India and Pakistan, especially
reaches its northernmost position in August, at the peak of the ISM. as the evaporation is quite low during this period (Liang et al., 2015).
From June to September, strong winds transport large quantities of
moisture from the Indian Ocean, which is then released as monsoon 3. Methodology
precipitation over the Indian subcontinent (Fleitmann et al., 2007).
The southwest monsoon is therefore driven by the thermal contrast be- The 57 records given in Table 1 are plotted according to the major
tween the Indian subcontinent and the Northern Indian Ocean, bringing source of rainfall for individual sites during the MCA and LIA period.
rains from June to September. The ISM is categorized into Arabian sea The Indian subcontinent receives rainfall from three major rainfall sys-
branch and Bay of Bengal branch based on the spread of moisture tems – (i) the southwest monsoon or the ISM, (ii) the Westerlies-
laden winds coming on the subcontinent. The Arabian Sea branch enters sourced rains and (iii) the northeast monsoon. We divided the records
through the west coast of India and through the Narmada–Tapti gap. on the basis of the major monsoon systems that bring rainfall on the In-
These winds bring rainfall in the extensive areas of Central India before dian subcontinent, first the ISM and second the Westerlies system (Fig.
eventually mixing with the Bay of Bengal vapor source after traveling 1). There are no proxy records from the northeast monsoon region
over the states of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh (Sengupta and spanning the last millennium, except for a qualitative discussion on
Sarkar, 2006). The Bay of Bengal branch of the ISM strikes the coast of the NE rainfall variability inferred from historical data of the last
Myanmar and Bangladesh and is deflected to the Himalayas and north- 60 years extrapolated to the late Holocene period (Gunnell et al.,
west India after mingling with the Arabian Sea branch in North India. 2007). They suggested that northeast monsoon and ISM rainfall varies
In autumn, the ITCZ then retreats southward and reaches its south- synchronously on seasonal to millennial timescales.
ernmost position in January. The reversed pressure gradient during Based on the available records from the ISM and Westerlies region,
the winter months causes the Northeast monsoon rain in southeast Figs. 2 and 3 are the relative wetness maps where wetness is classified
India (Fig. 1). The precipitation in winter and spring months in north- as dry, wet, moderately dry, moderately wet and drought (see figure
west India is primarily brought by westerly disturbances originating legends for colour scheme) following the original author's work. Fig. 2
over the Mediterranean, Black Sea and North Atlantic area as an shows the precipitation variability during the MCA and Fig. 3 docu-
extratropical frontal system moving eastward towards the Himalayan ments the precipitation variability during the LIA period, in the ISM
region. These are common in winter and spring and sometimes before and Westerlies zones. The circles represent the time span of 900 to
the summer monsoon and bring rains in Himalayan region and north- 1350 CE and 1500 to 1850 CE for MCA and LIA period respectively.
west India (Das, 1972; Yadav, 2011a). The chronology followed in the pie charts is taken from the original

Fig. 1. Map of the Indian subcontinent showing the climate regimes mainly divided into the ISM dominated in pink, the westerlies in light orange, core westerlies in orange and northeast
monsoon in yellow. The key to the colour and symbol scheme is given in the figure legend. Black dotted line denotes the location of the ITCZ during summer monsoon period between June
to September and the blue arrows show the movement of southwest monsoon (redrawn from Pant and Rupa Kumar, 1997)). Bold dashed black arrows denote the westerlies, blue arrows
show the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branch of the ISM and orange arrows show the northeast monsoon along the eastern coast of the peninsular India (redrawn from Gunnell et al.,
2007).
4 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15

Table 1 Table 1 (continued)

Proxy palaeo-precipitation and temperature records used in this study classified according
to the archive. For all the records, the age range, moisture and temperature classification Location of proxies Age range Reference
has been taken from the literature. CE Kotlia et al., 2012
Location of proxies Age range Reference Jhumar Cave, Central India; Wah-Shikar, 1000–2000 Sinha et al., 2011a,
Northeastern India CE 2011b
Tree rings (22) Andaman Islands Last 4000 Laskar et al., 2013
Western Himalayas Last 775 Yadav et al., 2004
years
years Gupteshwar cave, Central India Last 3400 Yadava and Ramesh,
Western Himalayas 1730–1987 Singh and Yadav, 2005 2006
years
CE Sanji cave, Central Himalayas Last ca. 4000 Kotlia et al., 2014
Western Himalayas 771–2003 Singh et al., 2006
years
CE Dandak Cave, Central India 950–1300 Berkelhammer et al.,
Eastern Himalayas 1852–2006 Yadava et al., 2015 2010
CE
CE Sahiya Cave, Central Himalayas 1200–2000 Sinha et al., 2015
Western Himalayas 420–2003 Yadav et al., 2006
CE
CE Western Ghats, Penninsular India 1666–1997 Yadava et al., 2004
Western Himalayas 940–2008 Yadav et al., 2011
CE
CE Panigarh Cave, Hilamayan foothills 1256–2000 Liang et al., 2015
Western Himalayas 1168–1988 Yadav et al., 1999
CE
CE
Western Himalayas 1698–1986 Yadav et al., 1997 Marine (7)
CE Southeastern Arabian Sea 460–2600 Chauhan et al., 2010
Western Himalayas 1450–2000 Borgaonkar et al., 2011 BP
CE Off Indus river, Arabian Sea 0–5000 BP von Rad et al., 1999
Western Himalayas 1711–1985 Borgaonkar et al., 1996 Off Orissa, Bay of Bengal Holocene Ponton et al., 2012
CE Off Oman margin, Arabian Sea Last 2000 Gupta et al., 2003
Nepal Himalayas 1440–1996 Cook et al., 2003 years
CE Eastern Arabian Sea 800–1900 Agnihotri et al., 2002
Western Himalayas 1452–2004 Borgaonkar et al., 2002 CE
CE Eastern Arabian Sea Holocene Sarkar et al., 2000
Western Himalayas 1295–2005 Singh and Yadav, 2013 Southeastern Arabian Sea 800–1600 Tiwari et al., 2005
CE CE
Western Himalayas 1455–2002 Singh and Yadav, 2014 Pollen (7)
CE Gangotri Glacier Last 2000 Kar et al., 2002
Lesser Himalayas 805–2002 Singh et al., 2004 years
CE Bhogdoi Swamp, Northeast India 0–3795 BP Dixit and Bera, 2013
Western Himalayas 1310–2004 Singh et al., 2009a Sitikher Bog, Himachal Pradesh 0–2300 BP Chauhan et al., 2000
CE Kiktikah Swamp, Madhya Pradesh 0–1600 BP Chauhan and Quamar,
Northern Pakistan, Karakoram 950–1990 Treydte et al., 2006 2012
CE Northwestern Himalayas 0–8300 Bhattacharyya et al.,
Western Himalayas 1410–2005 Yadav, 2011a years 2011
CE Kumaon Peat, Central Himalayas Last 3500 Phadtare and Pant,
Western Himalayas 16 Yadav, 2013 years 2006
BCE–2006 Mahanadi Floodplain, Odisha 0–5840 BP Tripathi et al., 2014
CE
Western Himalayas 1300–2000 Yadav, 2009
CE
published records. Using Fig. 2, we derived general patterns of summer
Western Himalayas 1460–2008 Yadav and Bhutiyani, and Westerlies rainfall in India during the MCA and LIA period. Fig. 2
CE 2013 clearly demonstrates that the regions of the Indian subcontinent affect-
Western Himalayas 1600–1985 Yadav and Singh, 2002 ed by the ISM were generally wet during the MCA. There is a paucity of
CE MCA records from the Westerlies dominated regions as compared to the
Lacustrine (7) LIA, nonetheless the available records suggest that the Westerlies
Khedla Quila Lake, Madhya Pradesh 675–1950 Quamar and Chauhan, brought less rain during the MCA (Fig. 2). During the LIA period, the
CE 2014 summer monsoon weakened as is observed from the preponderant or-
Lonar Lake, Madhya Pradesh Holocene Prasad et al., 2014a ange colour in the pie-charts of Fig. 3 in the ISM regime, while increased
Madhya Pradesh, Central India Last 3800 Chauhan and Quamar, Westerlies rains characterized this period in the western Himalayas
years 2012
(Fig. 3). There is also evidence of severe drought-like conditions in de-
Badanital Lake, Central Himalayas 0–4221 BP Kotlia and Joshi, 2013
Thar Desert margin, Western India 0–7000 BP Prasad et al., 1997 cadal-scale resolved speleothem records (Sinha et al., 2011a, 2011b)
Pookode Lake, Kerala 6240–565 Veena et al., 2014 from Central India as indicated by the red colour in the pie-charts.
BP The pie-chart in Figs. 2 and 3 present a general picture of the preva-
Paradise lake, Northeast India Last 1800 Shah and Chaudhary, lent climatic conditions on the Indian landmass during the globally ob-
years 2007 served MCA and LIA periods. However, for detailed centennial to
Speleothems (14) decadal scale hydroclimatic variations recorded in various archives in
Kothinal cave, Central Himalayas 500–1800 Padmakumari et al., the ISM dominated regime, we used speleothem and marine archives
CE 2010 as these are relatively better chronologically constrained. The idea was
Pokhara valley, Nepal 0–2300 BP Denniston et al., 2000 to understand the centennial to decadal scale intra-regional ISM vari-
Dharamjali cave, Central Himalayas ~200–2000 Sanwal et al., 2013
ability, recorded in terrestrial and marine archives. For the Westerlies
CE
regime, as the precipitation was primarily inferred from tree rings, we
Chulerasim cave, Lesser Himalayas 1590–2006
CE
used these records to evaluate the intra-regional variability. Palynolog-
Dandak Cave, Central India 600–1500 Kotlia et al., 2016, ical and other qualitative lake records with poor chronological control
are discussed in the text. An interesting aspect was to understand the
 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15 5

Fig. 2. Wetness pie-chart map based on multi-proxy records during the MCA period in various climate zones of the Indian subcontinent. The pie-chart is divided into the period 900–
1350 CE. Wetness is classified as dry, wet, moderately dry, moderately wet and drought (see figure legend for colour scheme) following author's original work. Northern India marked
in rectangle is enlarged. Blue rectangle encloses a pie chart representative of published speleothem studies on Dandak Cave and Gupteshwar Cave (located 30 km from Dandak)
speleothem. The pie charts follow the age interval for MCA and LIA as given in the text.

intra-archival climate variability within the ISM regime. For this pur- ASIA 2K temperatures (PAGES 2K network) and the Northern Hemi-
pose, we also attempted to study the coherence within speleothem re- sphere temperatures (Jones and Mann, 2004; Mann et al., 2002).
cords from the ISM regime to decipher the intra-regional variability
recorded in a single archive that could possibly shed light on the local 4. Results and discussion
physical mechanisms affecting the summer monsoon precipitation.
The MCA and LIA are defined as a temperature anomaly with rela- 4.1. Hydroclimatic variability within various climate zones on multi-cen-
tively warm and cold periods respectively in the Northern Hemisphere tennial timescale
on the basis of reconstructed surface temperatures using the proxy net-
work (Mann et al., 2009). Therefore, to evaluate the temperature varia- 4.1.1. Variability within the Indian Summer Monsoon regime
tions during the MCA and LIA periods on the Indian subcontinent with The monsoon rainfall variability during the past millennium in the
respect to the other Asian and global records, the seasonal temperature ISM-dominated regions on the Indian subcontinent is reasonably well
reconstructions inferred from tree rings is also compared against the documented from north India (Himalayas), northeast India, northwest

Fig. 3. Wetness pie-chart map based on multi-proxy records during the LIA in various climate zones of the Indian subcontinent. The pie-chart is divided into the period 1500–1850 CE.
Wetness is classified as dry, wet, moderately dry, moderately wet and drought (see figure legend for colour scheme) following author's original work.
6 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15

India, central India and south India (Western Ghats) using various ter- Ponton et al., 2012; Tiwari et al., 2005). Most of the tree-rings based cli-
restrial and marine archives. For example, a palynological and geochem- mate reconstructions are reported from the Lesser Himalayas (Yadav,
ical approach is used in lacustrine sediment from central India 2013).
(Chauhan, 2015; Chauhan and Quamar, 2012; Prasad et al., 2014b), The tree ring-inferred precipitation records from the ISM-influenced
NW India (Dixit et al., 2014a; Dixit et al., 2011; Prasad and Enzel, western and Central Himalayas are relatively few and there exists poor
2006) and NE India (Shah and Chaudhary, 2007), peninsular India calibration between tree ring and precipitation data owing to the strong
(Veena et al., 2014), speleothems from the Himalayas (Kotlia et al., topographic forcing on the spatial variability in precipitation in the Hi-
2016; Kotlia et al., 2014; Kotlia et al., 2012; Liang et al., 2015; Sanwal malayan region (Singh and Yadav, 2005).
et al., 2013; Sinha et al., 2015), Central India (Sinha et al., 2011a, Based on the available proxy records, speleothem and marine re-
2011b; Sinha et al., 2007) and South India (Yadava et al., 2004) and in cords are relatively better resolved in terms of the chronology as op-
the marine sediments (Chauhan et al., 2010; Gupta et al., 2003; posed to the lake records (Chauhan and Quamar, 2012; Prasad et al.,

Fig. 4. Hydroclimate variability in the ISM regions of the Indian subcontinent. H, M and P denote High (decadal-scale), Medium (centennial scale) and Poor (greater than centennial scale)
resolution respectively. Yellow and blue band represents MCA and LIA respectively. The vertical grey bars are the abrupt precipitation events observed in the presented records.
Speleothem records are plotted in orange from Central India (Sinha et al., 2011b), Western Ghats (Yadava et al., 2004), Lesser Himalayas (Sinha et al., 2015), North east India (Sinha et
al., 2011a), Central Himalayas (Kotlia et al., 2014), Lesser Himalayas (Kotlia et al., 2016; Kotlia et al., 2012), Kumaun lesser Himalayas (Sanwal et al., 2013). Marine records are in the
shades of blue from Arabian Sea (Tiwari et al., 2005), Bay of Bengal (Ponton et al., 2012), SE Arabian Sea (Chauhan et al., 2010), NW Arabian Sea (Gupta et al., 2003).
 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15 7

2014b; Tripathi et al., 2014; Veena et al., 2014). The rainfall variability both marine and speleothem records. At around 1600 CE, the summer
inferred from both, speleothem and marine records from the Indian monsoon weakened drastically throughout the subcontinent, as record-
sub-continent demonstrate spatially variable monsoon strength during ed in the Lesser Himalayas, Central India, Arabian Sea and NE India ex-
the last two centuries (Fig. 4). Although the available climate recon- cept the Andaman Islands, where this period corresponds to increased
structions are of different chronological resolution, there are general monsoon precipitation and could possibly be an artefact of an extremely
trends that can be observed in the last millennium (Fig. 2). Generally, poorly resolved age model or the island setting of the site (Laskar et al.,
the records from Central India and the Arabian Sea show decreased 2013). Based on the tree ring-width based reconstructions (Cook et al.,
monsoon precipitation at the beginning of MCA followed by strengthen- 2007) and speleothems of Central India (Sinha et al., 2011b), it is evi-
ing of the monsoon. The decadal-scale monsoon rainfall in Central India dent that the episodic and widespread recurrence of monsoon
brought by the Arabian Sea branch of the ISM, during the MCA and LIA megadroughts continued throughout the LIA. Using speleothem-based
periods is very well documented in the Dandak and Jhumar Cave late Holocene reconstructions of monsoon variability from India
speleothem records. While Dandak Cave record is the best available re- (Sinha et al., 2007) and China (Zhang et al., 2011), Sinha et al. (2011a,
cord in terms of chronological control on decadal to centennial scale, 2011b) suggested that there were at least five episodes of MMDs during
other records from the Arabian Sea have poor age control to compare the LIA (1350–1850 CE). These MMDs occurred during the period of
the monsoon variation at such short scale. For the Bay of Bengal branch generally reduced monsoon strength in Asia during LIA, between 1300
of ISM, both the marine record off the mouth of the Godavari river and 1700 CE (Fleitmann et al., 2007; Fleitmann et al., 2003; Hu et al.,
(Ponton et al., 2012) and the Andaman speleothem (Laskar et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2005).
2013) are chronologically too poorly resolved to be able to identify de- The Central Himalayas however, experienced relatively high precip-
cadal-centennial scale climate variations. Also, the Chulerasim cave re- itation during the LIA period (Denniston et al., 2000; Kotlia et al., 2014;
cord from Lesser Himalayas that receives rainfall from both the Liang et al., 2015; Sinha et al., 2015) as compared to the rest of the mon-
Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches of the ISM was initially pub- soon zone which was characterized by weaker monsoon and
lished with a poor chronology (Kotlia et al., 2012), and was revisited re- megadroughts in the core monsoon zone in central India. Stalagmites
cently with a slightly improved age-control (Kotlia et al., 2016), from Siddha Baba cave in the Pokhara Valley, central Nepal
however it only spans the last 400 year period. Nonetheless, in this sec- (Denniston et al., 2000) was characterized by dense, optically clear cal-
tion we have attempted to compare, discuss and identify major climate cite layers during the beginning of LIA period from 1550 to 1640 CE in-
events during the past two millennia on the basis of available records. dicating a less-evaporative cave environment than previously and
The beginning of the MCA around 900 CE was characterized by weak- cooler moist conditions. Liang et al. (2015) also show that similar con-
ened ISM precipitation, inferred on the basis of lower 18O in cordant mineralogical changes from aragonite to calcite in Panigarh sta-
speleothems from Central India (Sinha et al., 2011b; Sinha et al., 2007) lagmite at the beginning of the LIA points to a shift to a wetter climate in
and also from the Lesser Himalayas (Kotlia et al., 2014; Sanwal et al., the foothills of the Himalayas. The possible reason for the discordance in
2013; Sinha et al., 2015) (Fig. 4). Evidence for decreased monsoon the precipitation patterns between the Central Himalayas and the rest
strength around 900 CE has also been obtained from the Arabian Sea of India during the LIA is that the megadroughts in the monsoon-dom-
(Chauhan et al., 2010; Gupta et al., 2003). In the NW Arabian Sea, the inated regions are the result of the ‘break-dominated’ monsoon cycle
lower abundance of foraminifera G. ruber off the Oman margin (Gupta when the ITCZ shifts to the south, which weakens the easterly jet and
et al., 2003) and increased δ18O of foraminifera in SE Arabian Sea consequently subsiding air is forced to rise by the Himalayas along a
(Chauhan et al., 2010) indicate weakened ISM in the beginning of the break trough located above the foothills, which replaces the monsoon
MCA period. However, the monsoon variability recorded in the marine trough. This circulation brought rain to the Central Himalayas and Brah-
sediments collected off the River Godavari mouth in Bay of Bengal maputra valley as observed in the Panigarh Cave, Sahiya Cave in the
(Ponton et al., 2012) show an opposing trend. Ponton et al. (2012) re- Central Himalayas and Siddhi Baba cave (Nepal) in the Lesser Himalayas
constructed a Holocene monsoon variability record, with only two (Liang et al., 2015; Sinha et al., 2015) during the LIA period. Another
AMS 14C dates employed for age determination of the past two possible factor could be the moisture source for these regions, Central
millennia; we believe that this inadequate chronological assessment Himalayas receives rainfall from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of
possibly contributed to the mismatch of the general trend during the Bengal branch of the ISM, while central India receives most of the rain-
last millennium. In both terrestrial and marine records, the monsoon re- fall from the Arabian Sea branch; therefore the asynchronous pattern of
covered after around 950 CE and the interval between 950 and 1250 CE precipitation could be a manifestation of the weakening of the Arabian
is observed as a generally strong monsoon period, especially in the Less- Sea branch as compared to the Bay of Bengal branch of the ISM.
er Himalayas, Central India, and also in the Arabian Sea records. It is ap- The summer monsoon recovered after 1650 CE for a short period of
parent from Fig. 4 that the monsoon weakened significantly during the about 50 years followed by a decreasing trend of ISM monsoon ob-
end of the MCA period around 1300 CE. Sinha et al. (2011a, 2011b) served after 1700 CE in the speleothem records from Himalayas, West-
showed that Central India was characterized by droughts on either ern Ghats, and Central India. Another remarkable feature observed in
side of the period 950–1250 CE, and suggested that nearly every the reconstructions just at the end of the LIA period at 1850 CE, is a sud-
major drought was independently corroborated by historical accounts den decrease in the monsoon precipitation over the Indian subcontinent
of famine in India (Sinha et al., 2007). The major drought between (Laskar et al., 2013; Sinha et al., 2015; Sinha et al., 2011b; Yadav et al.,
1300 and 1350 CE was also observed in the Andamans (Laskar et al., 2014) (Fig. 4). The beginning of 20th century was characterized by de-
2013) and marine records from the Arabian Sea (Gupta et al., 2003; creasing ISM precipitation (Fig. 4). Kumar et al. (2013) used high-reso-
Tiwari et al., 2005). These major droughts are suggested to be of higher lution regional climate models to estimate the future temperature and
intensity than any of the droughts documented in the instrumental re- precipitation changes in the late 21st century. They demonstrated that
cord and also are termed as the ‘monsoon megadroughts or MMDs’ the projected rainfall changes show considerable spatial variability,
(Sinha et al., 2011a). However, such MMDs were not observed in the with an increase in precipitation only over the peninsular India and
studied records from the Lesser and Central Himalayas (Denniston et coastal areas and, either no change or a decrease further inland.
al., 2000; Kotlia et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015; Sanwal et al., 2013;
Sinha et al., 2015). 4.1.2. Variability within the Westerlies regime
The ISM recovered in most parts of the subcontinent after 1400 CE, In contrast to the ISM records, only tree ring records, except one la-
which marks the transition from the MCA to LIA. The beginning of the custrine (Leipe et al., 2013), exist from the Westerlies dominated re-
LIA period after 1500 CE, in the ISM-dominated regions was observed gions in the Indian subcontinent and most records extend only to
as being characterized by generally average monsoon conditions in 1300 CE. Therefore, a data gap exists for the MCA period from the
8 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15

Westerlies regime (Cook et al., 2003). The multi-proxy record based on The western Himalayas experienced a series of drought like events
lacustrine sediments of Tso Moriri lake suggest a decreasing monsoon after 1750 CE. This is recorded in the tree ring based precipitation and
trend from the beginning to the end of MCA at 1350 CE (Leipe et al., the Lake Tso-Moriri record as well. The increased Westerlies rainfall de-
2013). The tree ring-based precipitation reconstructions present a con- clined between 1750 and 1800 CE, which was the most prominent dry-
sistent picture of rainfall variability caused by western disturbances ing in the last 500 years (Yadav, 2011a). Following this drought, the
brought by the Westerlies. The beginning of LIA period after 1500 CE rainfall further decreased between 1850 and 1900 (Fig. 5). This pattern
shows an increasing rainfall trend from 1500 to 1600 CE in the western of drought is observed in the western Himalayas and also in the
and northwestern Himalayas. This period of increased rainfall brought Karakoram ranges (Singh et al., 2009b; Singh et al., 2006; Treydte et
by the extra-tropical storms originating in the Mediterranean corre- al., 2006; Yadav, 2011b). The Westerlies-brought precipitation in-
sponds to a generally moderate summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian creased significantly after 1950 CE in the western Himalayas (Fig. 5).
subcontinent. Treydte et al. (2006) used δ18O of tree-ring cellulose to demonstrate

Fig. 5. Hydroclimate variability in the Westerlies. Yellow and blue band represents MCA and LIA respectively. The vertical grey bars are the abrupt decline in precipitation observed in the
presented records. These records are for annual precipitation from Karakoram and Himalayas (Treydte et al., 2006) and spring rainfall from western and northwestern Himalayas as
follows: March–April–May–June precipitation in western Himalayas (Yadav et al., 2011), April to June precipitation in western Himalayas (Yadav, 2011a, 2011b), March–May
precipitation in western Himalayas (Singh et al., 2006), March–July precipitation in western Himalayas (Yadav, 2011a, 2011b), March to July precipitation in Northwestern Himalayas
(Singh et al., 2009b) and pollen based annual precipitation in the northwestern Himalayas (Leipe et al., 2013).
 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15 9

the increasing rainfall brought by Westerlies since the mid-nineteenth records are well correlated. The available speleothem records are pri-
century. An opposite trend is observed after 1975 CE which points to de- marily from three different regions: southern India (Yadava et al.,
clining rainfall to the present day. 2004); Central India (Berkelhammer et al., 2010; Sinha et al., 2011b;
Sinha et al., 2007; Yadava and Ramesh, 2006); north and northeast
4.2. Intra-archival coherence in speleothems in the ISM zone India (Kotlia et al., 2014; Sinha et al., 2015). All the records, except the
Andaman record, use Stalage algorithm or Monte Carlo simulations, tak-
Speleothems are considered to be the most reliable archive for past ing into account the associated errors of U-Th dating, to constrain the
climate reconstructions because they yield high-resolution climate re- age model, giving an advantage of one single method for chronology de-
cords owing to their unique character to be accurately dated over de- velopment and hence aiding in comparing the records in an objective
cadal to centennial time scales. For this reason, we chose, based on our manner. On centennial time scale, the monsoon precipitation pattern
literature survey, speleothem records from the summer monsoon dom- gives a coherent picture with generally decreasing monsoon rainfall
inated zone to make a comparison, and to test whether or not the during the MCA to LIA transitional period, as demonstrated in the

Fig. 6. Intra-archival variability in speleothems from the Indian Summer monsoon regime. Yellow and blue band represents MCA and LIA respectively. The speleothems are from the
Andaman islands (Laskar et al., 2013), Central Himalayas (Kotlia et al., 2014), Lesser Himalayas (Sinha et al., 2015), Northeast India (Sinha et al., 2011a), Central Himalayas (Sanwal et
al., 2013), Lesser Himalayas (Kotlia et al., 2016; Kotlia et al., 2012), central India (Sinha et al., 2011b). The central Himalayas show increased precipitation as opposed to decreasing
rainfall in other records during the LIA period.
10 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15

records from the Himalaya and NE India (Fig. 6). The only exception to The majority of the temperature records for the past millennium in
the general decreasing monsoon precipitation is the Andaman record, India are obtained using the tree ring-width studies from the Western
which has a very poor age-resolution (only six data points) during the Himalayas. We used both summer and spring temperature reconstruc-
LIA period and therefore is not suitable for inferring a decadal-centenni- tions for comparison with the Northern Hemisphere and ASIA 2K tem-
al scale trend. peratures. The lack of availability of temperature proxy records for the
The most prominent drought in the past few centuries was around MCA period from the Indian subcontinent restricts our evaluation of
1600 CE when the summer monsoon weakened drastically throughout temperature changes during this period. The only available record is
the subcontinent, however the records from NE India, Central from Western Himalayas, which yields a complete history of the sum-
Himalayas and Andamans exhibit opposing behaviour. NE India and mer temperature (May–June–July–August) fluctuations extending
Andaman receive majority of its rainfall during summer primarily driv- back to 940 CE (Yadav et al., 2011). The summer temperature record
en by the thermal gradient between the Bay of Bengal and the Indian from Western Himalayas follows closely that of the ASIA 2K and North-
subcontinent (Polanski et al., 2014). Sinha et al. (2011a, 2011b) attri- ern Hemisphere temperatures (Mann et al., 2002). Centennial-scale
bute this opposing behaviour to the local internal dynamics of the ISM variations in the record of the summer temperature reveal the presence
which has oscillating periods with a persistently “active dominated” of a warm period encompassing 11th–15th centuries corresponding to
and a “break-dominated” regime which are manifestations of sub-sea- the warming observed in the Northern Hemisphere and ASIA 2K record.
sonal fluctuations in the mean position of the continental tropical con- A decreasing trend in mean summer temperature occurred since
vergence zone (CTCZ) over the core monsoon zone (e.g., Goswami et 1450 CE and continued up to 1850 CE. This also follows the cold period
al., 2006; Lawrence and Webster, 2001). The switch between these re- LIA observed in the Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 7). The mean summer
gimes is suggested to occur abruptly (within decades) at a time (in temperature over the western Himalaya also shows a positive correla-
this case from ~ 1650–1700 CE); and therefore on a centennial scale tion with summer monsoon intensity over north central India (Yadav
the active-break dipole mode, associated with intra-seasonal oscilla- et al., 2011). These inferences therefore clearly suggest that the summer
tions, is the dominant source of ISM precipitation variability as opposed temperatures in the Western Himalayas followed closely the Northern
to subcontinent-scale monsoon variability (Sinha et al., 2011b). Hemisphere temperature variations and thereby demonstrate a possi-
It is also noteworthy that the Sainji Cave from the Central Himalayan ble teleconnection between the high and the lower latitudes.
region recorded the highest moisture conditions during the LIA (Fig. 6) Borgaonkar et al. (2011) used winter temperature reconstruction from
in contrast to the weakened summer monsoon rainfall in other regions, western Himalayan conifers, and showed that the winter temperatures
even though the region is believed to receive most of its rainfall from the are positively correlated with the mean annual temperatures in the
ISM (Sinha et al., 2015). Increased precipitation is also observed in the western Himalayas. The LIA interval in this region was characterized
Panigarh cave in Central Himalayas and Siddhi Baba cave in Nepal by cooling periods during 1453–1590 CE and 1780–1930 CE, while the
(Denniston et al., 2000; Liang et al., 2015). These episodes of increased 20th century warming is clearly observed as anomalous higher growth
rainfall during the LIA occurred at the time of ‘monsoon-break condi- in the high altitude tree-ring chronologies (Borgaonkar et al., 2011).
tions’, when the monsoon trough is located close to the foot of the Furthermore, regional climate models demonstrate that the ensemble-
Himalayas, which leads to a striking decrease in rainfall over most of mean warming over India is 1.5 °C at the end of 2050, whereas it is
India but to an increase along the Himalayas and parts of northeast 3.9 °C at the end of century with respect to 1970–1999 (Kumar et al.,
India and in the extreme southeast of Peninsular India (Liang et al., 2013).
2015). This possibly explains the opposing precipitation trends in the The spring (March–April–May) temperature reconstructed form the
NE India and Central Himalayas speleothem records around 1600 CE. Western Himalayas, however, suggests that relatively warm tempera-
Kotlia et al. (2014) suggested that the Westerlies might have played tures dominated this region during the spring in LIA. Cook et al.
an important role in the late Holocene climate of the Central Himalayas, (2003) used the tree-ring based winter temperature record to suggest
which could possibly explain consistent high moisture conditions in the that the LIA period was characterized by periods of cooling. However,
face of decreasing summer monsoon during the LIA period. Liang et al. most tree-ring data from the western Himalayan region do not record
(2015) suggested that the western depressions originating in the Med- the winter temperature and instead deal with summer and spring tem-
iterranean may have been pushed south during the LIA by the prevailing peratures, making it difficult to detect similar LIA signals (Borgaonkar et
colder temperatures and carried to the south of Tibetan Plateau by the al., 2002). Nonetheless, based on the comprehensive set of proxy re-
southern winter jet bringing high winter rainfall. Furthermore, recent cords presented here in Fig. 7, it is clear that the spring and summer
model simulations demonstrate that the western and Central Himalayas temperature changes in the western Himalayas differed significantly
are influenced by the extra-tropical Westerlies during winters (Polanski during the MCA and LIA. While the summer temperatures in the West-
et al., 2014). The highest precipitation in this region during 1450– ern Himalayas closely follow that of the mean annual temperatures in
1700 CE (beginning of LIA) is suggested to have resulted from the stron- the Northern Hemisphere, the spring temperatures show an opposite
ger Westerlies as opposed to the weak ISM during this period (Kotlia et trend during the LIA period.
al., 2014; Kotlia et al., 2012) (Fig. 6). Another notable feature of the temperature reconstructions is the
20th century temperature trends in spring and summer temperatures
4.3. Temperature variation on the Indian subcontinent of the Western Himalayas. The mean global temperatures in the instru-
mental records show a rise since the beginning of the 20th century.
We compiled the available temperature records from the subconti- High-resolution climate proxies from high-latitudes of the Northern
nent and compared them against the classic 'Hockey stick' Mann and and Southern Hemispheres indicate unprecedented warming in the
Jones record (Mann and Jones, 2003) of the Northern Hemisphere tem- 20th century (Jones and Mann, 2004). This is also exhibited in the sum-
perature changes (Fig. 7). PAGES 2K consortium recently used tree ring- mer temperature reconstruction in the Western Himalayas (Fig. 7).
based temperature reconstructions from Asia (primarily China and SE However, the spring temperature records show a decline since the be-
Asia) standardized to have a mean of zero and unit variance ultimately ginning of the 20th century (Singh and Yadav, 2014; Yadav et al.,
to obtain the ASIA 2K temperature anomaly record. Since, only one re- 1997). The cooling recorded during the latter part of the 20th century
cord from India was taken into the ASIA 2K reconstruction, we also com- is in agreement with the instrumental records (Singh and Yadav,
pare all the other available tree-ring based temperature reconstructions 2014). Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions from other Asian
from the Indian subcontinent with the ASIA 2K records to understand mountain regions like Nepal and central Asia (Cook et al., 2003;
the temperature variability with respect to Asia, northern latitudes Osborn and Briffa, 2004) also document cooling during the last decades
and globally averaged conditions. of the 20th century. Yadav et al. (2004) attributed this rapid decrease in
 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15 11

Fig. 7. Tree rings based temperature reconstructions from the Indian subcontinent. The temperature records show spring and summer temperatures from March to May and May to
September respectively as published in the original work. MAT is the Mean Annual Temperature in ASIA 2K and Northern Hemisphere records. W denotes records from the westerlies
regions and ISM denotes records from the Indian summer monsoon regions. Bottom-most records are the Northern Hemisphere reconstructions (Mann and Jones, 2003) and Asian
temperature records (PAGES 2K consortium).

the temperature to the large-scale deforestation and land degradation subcontinent. Nevertheless, the existence of clear synchronicity be-
in this area. Decreasing spring temperature in the 20th century is wide- tween the summer temperature on the Indian subcontinent and high
spread and observed throughout the Western Himalayas. This asyn- latitude Northern Hemisphere temperature suggests the existence of a
chronous variation in seasonal temperatures also point towards the link between the summer temperature and precipitation patterns in
extreme seasonality occurring in the western Himalayas, which is sug- the western Himalayas and the Northern Hemisphere.
gested to be mainly caused by the human activities and therefore con-
stitutes the human-induced rapid cooling of night temperatures 4.4. Possible mechanisms for the hydroclimate variability during the past
during spring in the western Himalayas (Yadav et al., 2004). millennium
It is difficult to discuss fully the asynchronous variations in seasonal
temperatures during the past millennium based on the limited number The causal mechanisms of the ISM rainfall variability on decadal to
of currently available proxy records. Therefore, it is essential to have orbital timescales has long been of interest to climatologists (for exam-
more temperature reconstructions for the past millennium to develop ple, Agnihotri et al., 2002; Fleitmann et al., 2007; Kumar et al., 1999; Liu
a robust understanding of the temperature variations from the Indian et al., 2013; Rind and Overpeck, 1993). On millennial to orbital
12 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15

timescales, both paleoclimate proxy research and climate modeling (Yadav, 2009). Yadav et al. (2011) used the Himalayan cedar tree
have suggested that the precipitation in the tropical and subtropical width chronology to suggest that reduced precipitation in the western
monsoon areas is directly proportional to latitudinal migration of the Himalayas could be associated with the decreasing trend in the frequen-
ITCZ (Fleitmann et al., 2007; Schneider et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2005). cy of the westerly disturbances.
With southward migration of the ITCZ, the precipitation in the Northern Recently, Sinha et al. (2015) used stable isotopes in speleothems
Hemisphere summer monsoon area decreases and vice versa, when the from Northern India to study the ISM oscillations over the past two
ITCZ moves northwards, the moisture-laden southwest winds bring millennia. The current drying trend observed in the records studied by
rainfall on the Indian subcontinent. Sachs et al. (2009) used geochemi- them are not only comparable to our compilation of other ISM records,
cal proxies from lake sediments in the Northern Line Islands, Galápagos but also lie under “the envelope of monsoon oscillatory variability”
and Palau to show that the Pacific ITCZ was south of its modern position (Sinha et al., 2015). The thermodynamic effect on ISM rainfall is impor-
for most of the past millennium, by as much as 500 km during the LIA tant on longer timescales (Wang et al., 2013), while at shorter time-
(Sachs et al., 2009). The possible cause of southward movement of the scales the ISM is more strongly influenced by changes in local SST
ITCZ was linked to the colder Northern Hemisphere at that time fields and other external boundary conditions like ENSO
owing to enhanced high-latitude ice cover and a slowdown of the Atlan- (Krishnamurthy and Goswami, 2000). For the ISM variability during
tic meridional overturning circulation during that period (Haug et al., the MCA period, Berkelhammer et al. (2010) used δ18O of Dandak
2001). Conversely, a northward migration of the ITCZ mean position is cave speleothem and compared it to the solar flux variability (Kodera,
usually driven by increased Northern Hemisphere insolation input rela- 2004) to suggest that the ENSO-modulated solar forcing (Emile-Geay
tive to the Southern Hemisphere. In terms of the hydrologic impact, et al., 2007) was the cause of strong solar–monsoon relationship during
palaeo-proxy evidence suggests that during the relatively cold LIA peri- this period. There is also evidence from the eastern equatorial Pacific
od, regions located at the northern limit of the ITCZ rain belt (including about the change of a strong zonal gradient and weak ENSO-like condi-
the Indian subcontinent), became drier relative to both the warm MCA tions to a weak gradient and amplified ENSO around ~1500-1650 which
and the most recent 150 years, pointing to a possible southward shift of coincided with deepest LIA cooling and also weakened ISM during this
the ITCZ (Yan et al., 2015). This also corroborates our synthesis of the In- period. This was likely caused by southward shift of the Intertropical
dian records that the ISM weakened significantly during the LIA as com- Convergence Zone or vice-versa (Rustic et al., 2015). Outside the MCA
pared to the MCA period (Figs. 2 and 3). Recently, climate model period, an absence of coherent relationships indicates varying ENSO dy-
simulations suggested that in the western Pacific, the ITCZ not only mi- namics and/or changing frequency and amplitude of Indian Ocean Di-
grated in the general northsouth pattern but also contracted over de- pole events (Berkelhammer et al., 2012), which can modulate the
cadal to centennial timescales in response to external forcing during ENSO impact on monsoon circulation (Ashok et al., 2004). Furthermore,
the LIA period (Yan et al., 2015). model simulations suggest that the decreasing trend of ISM in the 20th
Apart from the seasonal movement of the ITCZ, Gupta et al. (2003) century could be because of increased anthropogenic large-scale atmo-
used Arabian Sea sediments to correlate the planktic foraminifera abun- spheric aerosol loading over south Asia including the Indian subconti-
dance to the cold events in the North Atlantic. Increased G. bulloides dur- nent, which possibly checked the summer precipitation increase over
ing the MCA period coincided with a minimum in hematite and continental India which is predicted to have occurred in response to in-
therefore warmer sea surface temperature at the Bermuda rise in the creasing global temperatures (Bollasina et al., 2011; Ramanathan et al.,
North Atlantic. Conversely, a minimum in G. bulloides at approximately 2005). The summer monsoon weakening is also suggested to be a result
300–400 year BP was correlated with a brief maximum in hematite and of slowdown of the tropical meridional overturning circulation, which
cooling at the Bermuda rise during the LIA, suggesting a teleconnection compensates for the aerosol-induced energy imbalance between the
between the ISM variability and the North Atlantic climate. Warm Eur- Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Bollasina et al., 2011).
asian landmass during the MCA is suggested to contribute to increased
transport of warm water to the North Atlantic, in turn warming the
ocean and the adjacent landmass; and the intensification of the thermal 5. Conclusions and summary
gradient between the Indian Ocean and Eurasian landmass resulting in
stronger ISM during MCA. Feng and Hu (2008) used both instrumenta- The MCA and LIA periods are well represented in the ISM and West-
tion data of the 20th century and proxy records of the last 2000 years to erlies regimes; however, there exists heterogeneity in terms of the
suggest that the North Atlantic SST anomalies strongly affect the Tibetan timing and duration. There is a data gap from the NE monsoon region
Plateau surface temperature, which in turn affects the thermal gradient and also for the MCA period from the Westerlies dominated regions,
between the Eurasian landmass and the Indian Ocean thereby changing which restricted our interpretation of the spatial pattern of the
the summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. hydroclimatic variability in the last millennium. On a coarse temporal
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino-Southern Oscilla- resolution there is a synchronicity - the ISM was strong during the
tion (ENSO) are the two important modes of climate variability MCA period and relatively weak during the LIA, while Westerlies
known to have significant influence on climate over the Indian subcon- brought less rain during the MCA period and the Westerlies rainfall
tinent, particularly in the western Himalayas. A significant positive cor- strengthened significantly in the western Himalayas during the LIA.
relation between the winter NAO and winter precipitation in the However, the data density is too low to study the decadal-scale tempo-
Karakoram and a negative correlation between NAO and summer rain- ral structure of the MCA and LIA periods on the Indian subcontinent. In-
fall is demonstrated (Archer and Fowler, 2004; Bhutiyani et al., 2010). creased summer monsoon precipitation during the MCA is linked to the
This could possibly explain increased precipitation during the beginning ENSO-modulated solar forcing (Berkelhammer et al., 2010; Emile-Geay
of the LIA period in the western Himalayas (Fig. 5). For example, over et al., 2007). Increased precipitation in the Westerlies region during LIA
the western Himalayan region much of the precipitation in the season period is linked with the intensified western disturbances over NW
of reconstruction (March–July) is contributed by westerly disturbances India caused by the intensification of the Asian westerly jet stream
and the precipitation was in phase with the NAO (Singh et al., 2009b). over the Middle East during positive phase of NAO and migration of
Yadav (2009) also suggested that a positive phase of NAO and the the Asian jet to the lower latitudes during the warm phase of ENSO. Fur-
warm phase of ENSO are correlated with high winter precipitation. thermore, cooler ocean and continental temperatures are also instru-
The mechanism proposed is that the western disturbances are intensi- mental in forcing the Westerlies associated low-pressure systems
fied over NW India by the intensification of Asian westerly jet stream originating in the eastern Mediterranean, further south to be carried
over the Middle East during positive phase of NAO and intensification by the southern winter jet stream, which brings more rainfall in the
of Asian jet to the lower latitudes during the warm phase of ENSO Northern and North-eastern India during the LIA.
 Y. Dixit, S.K. Tandon / Earth-Science Reviews 161 (2016) 1–15 13

Centennial-scale summer temperature changes in the western Chauhan, M., Quamar, M., 2012. Pollen records of vegetation and inferred climate change
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Himalayas generally follow those of the Northern Hemisphere regions, 470–480.
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twentieth-century long-term global cooling trend is clearly displayed gion, Himachal Pradesh during late Holocene. Curr. Sci. 79, 373–376.
Chauhan, O.S., Vogelsang, E., Basavaiah, N., Kader, U., 2010. Reconstruction of the variabil-
in the summer temperatures in the Westerlies dominated regions. The ity of the southwest monsoon during the past 3 ka, from the continental margin of
twentieth century warming observed globally and in the ASIA 2K re- the southeastern Arabian Sea. J. Quat. Sci. 25, 798–807.
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enced by the ISM and Westerlies and a cooling trend is observed in spatial patterns and possible mechanisms. Quat. Sci. Rev. 107, 98–111.
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This proxy-data compilation study is useful for understanding the ogies from the Himalayas of Nepal. Int. J. Climatol. 23, 707–732.
Cook, E.R., Seager, R., Cane, M.A., Stahle, D.W., 2007. North American drought: reconstruc-
hydroclimatic variability during the past millennium in the Indian sub-
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Acknowledgement Dixit, Y., Hodell, D., Petrie, C., 2011. A Holocene climate record from palaeolakes in NW
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This work was carried out entirely at the IIT Kanpur. YD acknowl- northwest India ~ 4100 yr ago. Geology 42, 339–342.
edges the support of the Institute Postdoctoral fellowship for her stay Dixit, Y., Hodell, D.A., Sinha, R., Petrie, C.A., 2014b. Abrupt weakening of the Indian sum-
at IITK. SKT acknowledges the liberal support provided by the Institute mer monsoon at 8.2 kyrB.P. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 391, 16–23.
Dixit, Y., Hodell, D., Sinha, R., Petrie, C., 2015. Oxygen isotope analysis of multiple, single
through the D. N. Wadia Chair Professorship, as well as to the MoES, ostracod valves as a proxy for combined variability in seasonal temperature and
Government of India who financially supported this chair professorship. lake water oxygen isotopes. J. Paleolimnol. 53, 35–45.
The unqualified support and encouragement of Head of the Department Dutt, S., Gupta, A.K., Clemens, S.C., Cheng, H., Singh, R.K., Kathayat, G., Edwards, R.L., 2015.
Abrupt changes in Indian summer monsoon strength during 33,800 to 5500 years BP.
of Earth Sciences, IIT Kanpur, Professor Rajiv Sinha is duly acknowl- Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 5526–5532.
edged. The authors thank Kanchan Mishra, Dr. Swati Sinha and Hojung Emile-Geay, J., Cane, M., Seager, R., Kaplan, A., Almasi, P., 2007. El Niño as a mediator of
Kim for their help with editing of maps and figures. We also acknowl- the solar influence on climate. Paleoceanography 22, PA3210. http://dx.doi.org/10.
1029/2006PA001304.
edge Dr. Jayender Singh, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehra Esper, J., Cook, E.R., Schweingruber, F.H., 2002. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring
Dun for sharing data as well as assistance in collection of literature on chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295,
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