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Quantitative Methods For Business Ms. Dang Thi Uyen Thao Inclass Assignment Chapter 3

The document discusses 4 questions related to quantitative decision making: 1. A group of doctors is considering opening a private clinic with potential profits of $100k or losses of $40k. Without data, they estimate a 50% chance of success. 2. With market research costing $5k, new probabilities are provided. A decision tree is recommended to analyze the options. 3. Utility values are added for each monetary outcome. Expected utility is recommended as the new decision criterion. 4. Mr. Austria is considering opening a toy shop. A decision tree is requested to analyze the options of opening a small or large shop, or not opening, based on market research outcomes and associated probabilities

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Thanh Le
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39 views

Quantitative Methods For Business Ms. Dang Thi Uyen Thao Inclass Assignment Chapter 3

The document discusses 4 questions related to quantitative decision making: 1. A group of doctors is considering opening a private clinic with potential profits of $100k or losses of $40k. Without data, they estimate a 50% chance of success. 2. With market research costing $5k, new probabilities are provided. A decision tree is recommended to analyze the options. 3. Utility values are added for each monetary outcome. Expected utility is recommended as the new decision criterion. 4. Mr. Austria is considering opening a toy shop. A decision tree is requested to analyze the options of opening a small or large shop, or not opening, based on market research outcomes and associated probabilities

Uploaded by

Thanh Le
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR BUSINESS

Ms. Dang Thi Uyen Thao


INCLASS ASSIGNMENT CHAPTER 3

QUESTION 1:

A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the


medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could
realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of
course, they don’t have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any
market data, the best the physicians can guess is that there is a 50–50 chance the clinic will be
successful.

Construct a decision tree to help analyze this problem. What should the medical
professionals do?

QUESTION 2: Refer to question 1

The group is advised to approach a market research company that offers industry data at a fee
of $5,000. Based on experiences gained in this field and historical data record, the researchers
make the following quotes on probability:
The probability of a favorable market happens given a favorable study is 0.82
The probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable study is 0.11
The probability of a favorable research study is 0.55
a. Find the posterior probabilities based on these values.
b. Develop a new decision tree to reflect the options with the market study available.
What do you recommend using EMV?

QUESTION 3: Refer to question 1 and 2

You helped the medical professionals analyze their decision using expected monetary value as
the decision criterion. This group has also assessed their utility for money:
U(-$45,000) = 0
U(-$40,000)= 0.1
U(-$5,000) = 0.7
U($0) = 0.9
U($95,000) = 0.99
U($100,000) = 1.
Use expected utility as the decision criterion, and determine the best decision for the medical
professionals.

QUESTION 4

Mr. Austria is thinking about opening a toy shop in his hometown. Mr. Austria can open a
small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all. The profits will depend on the size of the shop and
whether the market is favorable or unfavorable for his products. Mr. Austria is also thinking
about asking support from a research agency for a marketing report. If the study is conducted,
the study could be favorable (i.e., predicting a favorable market) or unfavorable (i.e., predicting
an unfavorable market). If Mr. Austria builds the large toy shop, he will earn $60,000 if the
market is favorable, but he will lose $40,000 if the market is unfavorable. The small shop will
return a $30,000 profit in a favorable market and a $10,000 loss in an unfavorable market. At
the present time, he believes that there is a 50–50 chance that the market will be favorable. The
agency will charge him $5,000 for the marketing research. It is estimated that there is a 0.6
probability that the survey will be favorable. Furthermore, there is a 0.9 probability that the
market will be favorable given a favorable outcome from the study. However, the marketing
professor has warned Mr. Austria that there is only a probability of 0.12 of a favorable market
if the marketing research results are not favorable. Mr. Austria is confused.

Draw the decision tree

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