VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI
UNIVERSITY OF LANGUAGES AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
____*******____
ENGLISH FOR ECONOMICS
Case Study 3 – TRADE WAR (INTERNATIONAL TRADE)
LATEST ESCALATION OF US-CHINA TRADE WAR THREATENS VIETNAM
Student’s name: Le Ngoc Phuong Linh
Student ID: 16041698
Class: QH2018.BK
Hanoi, May 20th, 2021
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Table of content
1. Introduction
1.1. Purpose of the report
1.2. Background information about the case
1.3. Reason behind
2. Conceptual background
2.1. Trade war
2.2. Trade barriers (Tariff and non-tariff barriers)
3. Analysis
3.1. The current trading situation between China and the USA
3.2. Impacts on Vietnam
3.2.1. Economy, trade and enterprises
3.2.2. Investment capital flows of FDI enterprises
3.3.3. Financial market, currency, banking
4. Recommendation
5. Conclusion
1. Introduction
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1.1. Purpose of the report
Based on background knowledge of international trade, this paper investigates the
ongoing US-China trade war and its threats to the Vietnamese economic system. The
essay approaches the US-China trade war from the perspective of great power politics,
focusing on economic competition between two great power countries; thereby, asserting
that the war is not merely happening around the economic field, but also imposes deeper
meanings of competitive advantage. By reviewing the most recent escalation of the
continuing trade war, I expose the impacts of the crisis on Vietnam’s economic structure,
both negative and positive effects, and then propose some options for Vietnam to address
this dilemma. Based on the relevant theory, industry, and economic information, I make
recommendations for improvement or solution to the situation.
1.2. Background information about the case
Trade wars have occurred often throughout history, with several precedents between
the United States and China. Two countries have the world's two largest economies, and
their trading relationship dates back to the nineteenth century. Since 1991, the United
States has conducted five "Section 301 investigations" against China, focusing on
intellectual property rights, unfair trade barriers, and renewable energy. During previous
studies, both governments threatened to retaliate with tariffs. However, both of the
mentioned disputes were finally decided by diplomatic channels, signing of trade
agreements following negotiation, or finding a compromise through the dispute
resolution process of WTO. The most recent investigation, prior to the latest one, was
undertaken in September 2010. In reaction to the petition submitted by the United
Steelworkers, the Obama administration launched a "Section 301 investigation" on
China's subsidy policies and green technology. The investigation focused on subsidies
offered to 154 Chinese companies in wind energy, solar energy, high-performance
batteries, and alternative fuel vehicles, which allegedly undermined WTO policies.
Before the investigation turned into a full-fledged trade war, the US requested
consultations via the WTO's dispute resolution process in December 2010, and China
agreed to amend the subsidy policies in Tentative Measures for the Administration of
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Special Fund Used for Industrialization of Wind-power-Generate-Electricity Equipment.
However, when Donald Trump took office, even before the trade war between China and
the United States erupted, the White House took a stern stand on trade policy. In June
2017, Trump launched a ‘Section 232 investigation' into the manufacture of steel and
aluminum for national security purposes. When we enter 2018, Trade tensions between
the United States and China have grown in both scale and frequency. Fortunately, trade
wars are not a recent phenomenon; in fact, they have occurred often throughout history,
helping us to build on crucial lessons learned from previous trade conflicts to achieve a
clearer understanding of the present one. We should define the origins of the ongoing
China-US trade war and develop a framework to analyze its economic effects by drawing
comparisons and, more specifically, distinctions from past trade wars. We believe that the
trade war has three causes; although they seem to be economic in nature, they are really
highly political.
1.3. Reason behind
The trade war between the United States and China has both profound and specific
reasons.
1.3.1. Profound reasons:
The US-China trade war is an increasingly fierce conflict between the two largest
economic powers in the world. It is forecasted that by 2030, China's nominal GDP will
surpass that of the US. However, in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), China's
GDP now exceeds that of the US. The US and China are also two trading powers: the US
is the world's second-largest importer and second exporter; China is the world's largest
exporter and second-largest importer.
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In recent years, the competition between the two superpowers has become more and
more intense in the context of the US power showing signs of decline while China is
showing its ambition to replace the US in the dominant position of the world’s political
chessboard.
1.3.2. Specific reasons
The following issues are considered specific causes of US-China trade tensions,
especially since China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001.
First, the protectionist policy of the Trump administration.
Since taking office, President Donald Trump has pursued a protectionist trade policy
with the goal of "America First" and "making America great again". This protectionist
trade policy not only leads to a trade war with China, but also leads to trade conflicts with
countries that are considered allies of the US (such as EU, Japan, Korea) or neighboring
countries. close to the US (such as Canada, Mexico). Immediately after taking office, Mr.
Trump withdrew from or asked to renegotiate a series of free trade agreements (FTAs)
that the US had signed or was implementing.
Second, America's large trade deficit with China.
The US trade deficit is considered a direct cause of US-China trade tensions. In 2017,
the US imported $506 billion worth of goods from China, while exporting only $131
billion worth of goods to China. Thus, the US trade deficit with China is up to 375 billion
USD.
Notably, the US trade deficit with China has continuously increased since China joined
the WTO (from $100 billion in 2001 to $375 billion in 2017). The US administration has
repeatedly asked China to reduce its trade surplus with the US. China responded that in
order to reduce the trade deficit, it was the US that needed to increase its exports. Figure
3 shows the US trade deficit from 2001 to 2017. The solid and dotted lines reflect the
country's overall deficit and its deficit with China, respectively (left axis, in million US
dollars). Furthermore, the bars show the trade deficit with China as a percentage of the
overall. In both actual and relative terms, the United States' trade deficit with China has
increased. By 2017, the US trade deficit with China had grown to become a significant
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source of net imports, accounting for roughly 46 percent of the overall deficit. Trade
imbalances have long been the source of US national debt crises as well as popular
dissatisfaction in the US, prompting the US government to launch a trade war against
China.
Data source: UN Comtrade Database
Third, China's ambition to become the world's leading technology nation.
Although the US trade deficit with China is seen as an external cause of the trade
war, the core issue of the tension between the two countries is the US's concern about
China's ambitions to become the world's leading technology country. To become the
world's advanced economy, independent of the import of key technologies from major
competitors, China is currently pouring billions of dollars into its "Made in China 2025"
program to create motivation for the development of key technology industries, including
robotics, artificial intelligence, aerospace, electric cars, and 5G Internet technology. The
paradox is that China's ambitions are big while its technological level is still limited. To
implement the "Made in China 2025" strategy, Chinese companies must rely on core
technologies from the US. The US accuses China of tacit agreements that are forcing
American companies to transfer technology to Chinese partners in joint ventures. China
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denies this allegation. However, the US also accused China of trying to get American
technology through methods such as importing technology or even stealing technology.
Another method used by large Chinese companies (ZTE, Huawei, China Mobile) to
acquire American high technology is through mergers and acquisitions with American
companies.
Fourth, Chinese intellectual property theft
The US has repeatedly accused China of serious intellectual property rights infringement,
especially for the copyrights of US companies. The US government believes that US
companies lose billions of dollars a year due to the theft of Chinese trade secrets.
According to a CNBC poll conducted in March, one in every five US companies had
intellectual property stolen from them by China in the previous year. The Commission on
the Theft of American Intellectual Property estimates that theft costs $600 a year.
2. Conceptual background
2.1. Trade war
According to Kimberly Amadeo on The Balance, a trade war is a situation when a
country puts tariffs or quotas on imports, other countries retaliate with identical ways of
trade protectionism. A trade war conflict limits world trade as it escalates. It begins as a
country tries to defend its domestic economy while still creating employment that could
succeed in the short run. Tariffs are intended to allow domestic manufacturers of the
commodity a comparative advantage. In contrast, their values will be better. As a result,
they will collect a greater number of orders from local consumers. Jobs will be added as
their companies expanded. A trade conflict, on the other hand, costs employment in the
long term. It has a negative impact on economic development in all countries concerned.
It also causes inflation when tariffs increase the prices of imports.
2.2. Trade barriers (Tariff and non-tariff barriers)
Tariffs are taxes that governments place on imported goods for a variety of reasons.
Some of these reasons include protecting sensitive industries, for humanitarian reasons,
and protecting against dumping. Traditionally, tariffs were used simply as a political tool
to protect certain vested economic, social, and cultural interests. The World Trade
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Organization (WTO) is committed to lowering barriers to trade. The world's nations meet
through the WTO to negotiate how they can reduce barriers to trade, such as tariffs.
Non-tariff trade barriers are those that limit the import or export of goods in ways
other than tariffs. Non-tariff trade barriers identified by the World Trade Organization
(WTO) include import licenses, pre-shipment inspections, rules of origin, customs
delayers, and other processes that prohibit or limit trade. Non-tariff barriers are used by
developed countries as an international strategy to regulate the volume of trade with other
countries. Countries base their decisions on non-tariff barriers to impose in international
trade on the supply of goods and services for import and export, as well as current
political alliances.
3. Analysis
3.1. The current trading situation between China and the USA
In the second decade of the twenty-first century, the United States and China are
caught up in a new Cold War with trade as a key front for controversy. In July 2018, US
President Donald Trump focused efforts on months of threats to slap sweeping tariffs on
China over perceived unfair trade practices. In the months since, the two countries have
been engaged in several back-and-forth disputes, a tit-for-tat tariff battle, imposed
international technology controls, and battled several WTO events, bringing US-China
trade relations to the verge of a full-fledged trade war.
The trade war between the US and China, the hottest one in recent times, can be
compared to a brainstorming chess game. Since Mid-2018 in an investigation, the US has
accused China of infringing intellectual property rights. America is ready to join the fight
to get back what it thinks is its own, and China is ready to respond. On July 6th, the chess
game officially started. The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced to
increase tariff to 25% on 1300 imported Chinese products (List 1) valued at US$34
billion. Commodities targeted in this round of tariffs include: iron or steel products,
electrical machinery, railway products, instruments and apparatus. In response, China
immediately imposed a 25% tariff on $34 billion worth of goods with 545 items imported
from America, including agricultural products, automobiles and aquatic products. About
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2 months later, there were continuous tit-for-tat actions between the US and China. On
August 23, 2018, a 25% tax on $16 billion worth of goods was used by the US and China
for each tax application. Unexpectedly strong move on September 24, 2018, the US
imposed 10% tariffs on $200 billion of goods exported from China. China immediately
responded by imposing 10% tariffs on $60 billion of goods from the US. This is
considered a weaker response from China. The US is leading the trade war. Tariff
measures imposed by the US on Chinese goods include: thousands of high-tech items,
affecting the prices of televisions, solar panels, cosmetics, electronics, beer, cars and even
clothing in the US. Seven major US retailers, including Walmart, Gap, and Coca-Cola,
said the tariffs forced them to raise the prices of their products. Even in this war, the US
accepts the loss of the soybean industry worth 13 billion USD a year and the car industry
when it is blocked from exporting into China. Meanwhile, China has imposed import
tariffs on goods such as aircraft, soybeans, whiskey, fruit, nuts, beer and wine from the
US and has agreed to give up the entire timber industry that once exported to the US. 32
billion USD/year. This shows the heavy losses of both countries in the economic war.
Not stopping at the economic attack on tariffs, the US continues to take stronger
measures on the technology field. Technology is one of the core factors that determine
the survival of many businesses. Therefore, Chinese enterprises such as Baidu, Alibaba
and Tencent ... continuously invest to startup projects in Silicon Valley - the technology
cradle of the US in search of new technologies. As the United States accuses China of
stealing its technology, this billion-dollar investment flow is tightened as the Trump
administration increases the authority of the Foreign Investment Committee to block
foreign M&A deals, especially in the field of technology. And as a result, 75% of
Chinese investments fall under this restriction.The strongest sanctions are the US hitting
two leading Chinese technology enterprises, ZTE and Huawei. U.S. businesses have not
to sell technology and services parts to ZTE. The ban prevented ZTE from accessing US-
made hardware and software, forcing it to close many facilities around the globe because
ZTE's products depend on high-end US chip sources. For example in one ZTE's phone,
the US chip accounts for 60% of the processing chip material. Huawei is the second
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largest phone manufacturer in the world after Samsung. The US wants to "hit" Huawei is
considered leverage in the trade war with China because Huawei is the "key" in China's
ambitious "Made in China 2025" plan. And this action has weakened Huawei and raised
the demand for China to expand the market.
2019 is forecasted to be the year of a smoldering war and obvious consequences for
countries around the world. On August 5, 2019, the US Treasury Department announced
that China was on the list of currency manipulators. After 25 years, Washington once
again listed Beijing as a currency manipulator, amid the ongoing trade war between the
world's two largest economies. The move was in response to accusations from the United
States that China devalued the yuan to an 11-year low. After China's move to depreciate
the yuan, the US stock market has witnessed a significant decline. From September 1, the
US will impose a 10% tax on US$300 billion of imports from China; after hitting 25%
over 250 billion. Only one day after Trump's decision, on August 2, 2019, China
declared that it was ready to "welcome to war", to fight against the US. However, on
January 15, 2020, the US and China signed a trade agreement. China agreed to buy
US$200 billion of goods from the US within 2 years. The US pledges not to impose
additional tariffs on Chinese goods. However, the US still maintains the tariffs imposing
on $250 billion of Chinese goods. On February 17, 2020, China removed 696 items
imported from the US from the list of additional tariffs. After three months, China
announced a list of 79 items from the US that are exempt from additional tariffs, which
will be effective from May 19, 2020 to May 18, 2021.
So far, the US has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth US$550 billion. China, in
response, has placed tariffs on US imports worth $185 billion.
3.2. Impacts on Vietnam
The escalation of tension between the world's two largest economies has crossed the
border of the two countries, strongly affecting many aspects of the Vietnamese economy.
In the coming time, these impacts also directly affect and bring many opportunities and
challenges for Vietnamese enterprises
3.2.1. Economy, trade and enterprises
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Looking at the positive side, in the short term, Vietnamese enterprises have the
opportunity to boost exports to the US market because Chinese goods are limited. Over
the years, the United States has become Vietnam's biggest export market (the third largest
in China), and China was Vietnam's main source. As of December 2018, 36 percent of
Vietnam's export income and about one third of its import bill is made up of the United
States and China. Vietnam has a significant trade excess of almost $34 billion with the
United States in 2018. It also has an equally high deficit of almost $24 billion with China
(see Graph 1and Graph 2 below).
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According to a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in
Guangzhou, Chinese companies are losing market share to companies from other Asian
countries, especially Vietnam.
One of the positive impacts of the trade war is that high taxes on Chinese goods
entering the US have created great market opportunities for the exports of countries that
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compete with China, including Vietnam. In the list of items most affected by the US
tariffs, many goods are Vietnam's strengths, especially high-tech goods such as
telecommunications equipment, microelectronic circuit boards, etc. calculators,
electrostatic converters, furniture. This is a great opportunity for Vietnamese enterprises
to promote the export of high-tech products to the US. According to data from the US
International Trade Commission, cell phone imports from Vietnam more than doubled in
the first four months of 2019 compared to the same timeframe last year, while computer
imports rose by 79 percent. There was also a rise in the amount of Vietnamese fabrics,
textiles, furniture, and dried fish shipped to the United States, which had historically been
manufactured in China prior to Trump's tariff increases. As a result of the trade war,
Vietnam's exports to the United States rose by 27.3 percent in the first half of 2019. Over
the same time, Vietnam's exports to China increased by 0.3%. As can be seen, the rise in
Vietnam's exports to China is somewhat smaller than the increase in Vietnam's exports to
the US. Electronics, semiconductors, garments, footwear, sport goods, and furniture are
among Vietnam's top exports to China (see Graph 3 below). Vietnam stands to benefit the
most from the US-China trade war, according to Yasuyuki Sawada, the Asian
Development Bank's chief economist, because Chinese products impacted by tariffs are
both consumed and manufactured in Vietnam. As a result, when exporting them to the
United States, Vietnam can directly export these products to the United States and gain
greater market share of Chinese products subject to tariffs.
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However, the long-term effects of the trade war will reduce the world economy and
reduce foreign demand for Vietnamese goods. The disruption of global supply chains
also affects Vietnamese businesses, especially FDI enterprises. Chinese companies are
restricted from exporting to the US market, which may be the reason for the decrease in
exports of Vietnamese enterprises to China because China is an important export market
for Vietnam with many goods such as electronic components, computer equipment and
agricultural products. Besides, the increase in exports to the US also means an increase in
the US trade deficit with Vietnam. That will make Vietnamese goods fall into the sights
of US inspection, affecting export businesses and causing damage to the Vietnamese
economy. On the other hand, exporting goods from Vietnam to China will be more
difficult because China strengthens the enforcement of measures to protect the domestic
market.
3.2.2. Investment capital flows of FDI enterprises
Vietnam is considered as one of the important destinations of FDI outflow from
China thanks to its strategic location, low labor costs, abundant human resources, stable
macro and political environment have helped manufacturers have a better access to key
export markets. Increasing production costs in China also make investors shift to more
cost-effective investment locations, and Vietnam is seen as a shining star. At the same
time, Vietnam has a strong economy, expressed in its 7.08% rise, compared to 6.6% in
China and 7.4% in India. Vietnam has been one of the developing economies with the
highest and most stable growth, with an average growth rate of more than 5% over the
last 20 years. Vietnam was ranked 69th, much better than China's 78th ranking, in the
2019 World Bank Ease of Doing Business survey. In addition to Vietnam, investment
control in nine industries, including construction, electrical, mechanical and other
equipment, and market services is three times more stringent in China. Moreover,
Vietnam is gradually moving up the new technology ladder, which is also a reason to
expect FDI inflows in the high-tech sector to come to Vietnam. In reality, indicators
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demonstrate that Vietnam's economic institutions provide better market conditions (see
Graph 4).
However, the rapid increase of FDI inflows from China is also a concern, because
many FDI projects from China to Vietnam were previously outdated technology and
polluted environment projects. In addition, there are concerns about the possibility of
China increasing investment in Vietnam to achieve "Made in Vietnam" origin, taking
advantage of Vietnam's new FTAs to benefit from tax and tariffs from America. The
concern is that Vietnam may be turned into China's ‘backyard’, which may result in
adverse consequences. If Vietnam does not strictly control this issue, it is likely that the
US will apply sanctions on businesses in Vietnam similar to China. There is also an issue
of limited human resources and a structural labor shortage in Vietnam. Despite a 14.5%
increase in 2009, only 21.9% of employees had been trained or other aspects of higher
education in 2018. (see Graph 6). The number of university graduates (4.1 percentage
points) and vocational schools has increased greatly in recent years (2.6 percentage
points). In Vietnam, in connection with the US-China trade war, structural unemployment
brought on by industrial transition is becoming an urgent issue.
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3.3.3. Financial market, currency, banking
Besides the impacts on the Vietnamese economy, the US-China trade tensions also
have a strong impact on the financial and monetary market of Vietnam. The trade war,
although not directly affecting interest rates in Vietnam, can have an indirect impact
through exchange rate fluctuations and inflationary pressure. Specifically, or the
Vietnamese stock market, after reaching a record in April 2018, there has been a strong
downward trend with foreign investors continuously withdrawing their net capital,
despite the economic changes positive. It is forecasted that this situation will continue,
investors tend to postpone investment projects because the trade war is forecasted to
continue.
As for the exchange rate, the USD tends to appreciate while the yuan decreases due
to a number of reasons: The US economy receives a lot of positive economic information,
the US Federal Reserve the first interest rate cuts in 10 years, and investors' concerns about
the developments of US-China trade tensions. Therefore, the USD/VND exchange rate is
under increasing pressure and especially inflationary pressure increases in the short term,
which may cause interest rates to increase slightly. During the first 5 months of 2019, the
interest rate level in Vietnam remained stable thanks to the efforts of the State Bank.
However, in the face of the escalating developments of the US-China trade war, the
interest rate level will hardly have the opportunity to decrease in the near future. High
interest rates cause increasing in financial costs to which is the cause of reducing profits
for many businesses and a big pressure on Vietnamese enterprises in the coming time.
4. Recommendation
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With a large economic openness and deepening integration, having large trade and
investment relations with the US and China, and being in many global and regional
production chains, Vietnam has been suffering from direct and indirect impacts from the
US-China trade war. Therefore, the Vietnamese government have to prepare for and even
avoid the influences of the trade war.
Regarding foreign affairs, Vietnam needs to be cautious, flexible, and clever based on
overall interests under the motto of avoiding being caught in the "whirlpool" of the trade
war. Ensure unity and synchronization in promoting relations as well as in dealings with
the US and China in economics and trade, deepening cooperation relations, and finding
appropriate solutions to handle problems in relations with China an economic system
with partners.
Regarding socio-economic management, the Vietnamese government has to firmly
maintain macroeconomic stability, continue to implement fiscal, monetary, and exchange
rate policies actively and flexibly. Besides, it is necessary to develop growth scenarios,
plans, and solutions for operation and management. Lastly, Vietnam should continue to
improve institutions, improve the business investment environment to improve
competitiveness and resilience to external economic fluctuations.
Regarding trade, Vietnam should step up the monitoring of import and export situation
with trading partners to warn of the risk of trade remedy lawsuits, evade trade remedies,
and help businesses proactively prevent trade remedies. prevent and respond to trade
remedy lawsuits, towards sustainable exports. Additionally, it is highly important to
closely monitor the trend of importing goods from key markets and strengthen control of
cooperation, production, and processing of goods for Chinese enterprises to avoid frauds
on the origin of goods, tax evasion, affecting domestic production and possibly leading to
Vietnam subject to trade sanctions. Last but not least, one key for the Vietnamese
government is that strengthening recommendations for businesses not to assist in the
transshipment of goods to Vietnam, and at the same time to properly manage the storage
of documents on the origin and origin of raw materials and products.
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Regarding investment, it is necessary to be cautious in attracting FDI, carefully
verifying projects with signs of origin fraud, taking advantage of Vietnam to transship
goods through investment channels. In the long term, it is necessary to renew the thinking
to attract FDI, promote multilateralization and diversify markets. Moreover, it can be
forgotten to strengthen investment promotion in some markets with source technology
and large technology corporations that are planning to shift production. For the future, the
Vietnamese government has to review and soon have technical barriers, standards, and
high standards on security - defense, technology, and environment to limit low-quality
investment capital flows.
5. Conclusion
It can be seen that the trade war between the US and China is still increasingly fierce
and shows no sign of stopping. This has had a significant impact on the economies of
both countries, as well as other open economies in the world. Vietnam is an open
economy, so it is difficult to avoid the effects of this war, however, from an optimistic
point of view, analysts say that Vietnam can benefit if it knows how to make full use of
it. use opportunities. The Vietnamese government needs to improve its role in
management and coordination. Along with that, Vietnamese businesses also need to
know how to take advantage, update and improve quality to turn difficulties into
opportunities for themselves.
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