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Linear Programming Assignment 5: 1 Chapter 17 (Section 17.2)

This document contains solutions to linear programming exercises from a textbook. It includes: 1) The transition probability matrix for a system with two machines that can break down. 2) The transition probability matrix and calculations for families moving between urban, suburban and rural areas. 3) The transition probability matrix and calculations for the conditions of a car being in good, fair or broken-down condition each year. 4) The transition probability matrix and calculations for the prices of two stocks from one day to the next. 5) The transition probability matrix and calculations for the path of a student through college from freshman to senior year to graduation or quitting.

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Munia Nusrat
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© © All Rights Reserved
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322 views

Linear Programming Assignment 5: 1 Chapter 17 (Section 17.2)

This document contains solutions to linear programming exercises from a textbook. It includes: 1) The transition probability matrix for a system with two machines that can break down. 2) The transition probability matrix and calculations for families moving between urban, suburban and rural areas. 3) The transition probability matrix and calculations for the conditions of a car being in good, fair or broken-down condition each year. 4) The transition probability matrix and calculations for the prices of two stocks from one day to the next. 5) The transition probability matrix and calculations for the path of a student through college from freshman to senior year to graduation or quitting.

Uploaded by

Munia Nusrat
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Linear Programming Assignment 5

Nusrat Munia, Roll-03


April 27, 2019

1 Chapter 17 [Section 17.2]


1.1 Exercise 3
A company has two machines. During any day, each machine that is working at the beginning of the day has a 31 chance
of breaking down. If a machine breaks down during the day, it is sent to a repair facility and will be working two days
after it breaks down. (Thus, if a machine breaks down during day 3, it will be working at the beginning of day 5.)
Letting the state of the system be the number of machines working at the beginning of the day, formulate a transition
probability matrix for this situation.

1.1.1 Solution
The transition probability matrix for this situation is:
0 1 2
 
0 0 0 1
1  0 1/3 2/3 
2 1/9 4/9 4/9

2 Chapter 17 [Section 17.3]


2.1 Exercise 1
Each American family is classified as living in an urban, rural, or suburban location. During a given year, 15% of all
urban families move to a suburban location, and 5% move to a rural location; also, 6% of all suburban families move
to an urban location, and 4% move to a rural location; finally, 4% of all rural families move to an urban location, and
6% move to a suburban location.
a If a family now lives in an urban location, what is the probability that it will live in an urban area two years from
now? A suburban area? A rural area?
b Suppose that at present, 40% of all families live in an urban area, 35% live in a suburban area, and 25% live in a
rural area. Two years from now, what percentage of American families will live in an urban area?
c What problems might occur if this model were used to predict the future population distribution of the United
States?

2.1.1 Solution
(a) The transition probability matrix for this situation is:
U S R
 
U rban 0.80 0.15 0.05
P = Suburban  0.06 0.90 0.04 
Rural 0.04 0.06 0.90

U S R
 
U rban .651 .258 .091
P 2 = P × P = Suburban  .104 .821 .075 
Rural .072 .114 .814

1
If a family now lives in an urban location then,
the probability that it will live in an urban area two years from now is 0.651.
the probability that it will live in an suburban area two years from now is 0.258.
the probability that it will live in an rural area two years from now is 0.091.

3 Chapter 17 [Section 17.5]


3.1 Exercise 4
At the beginning of each year, my car is in good, fair, or broken-down condition. A good car will be good at the
beginning of next year with probability .85; fair with probability .10; or broken-down with probability .05. A fair car
will be fair at the beginning of the next year with probability .70 or broken-down with probability .30. It costs $6,000
to purchase a good car; a fair car can be traded in for $2,000; and a broken-down car has no trade-in value and must
immediately be replaced by a good car. It costs $1,000 per year to operate a good car and $1,500 to operate a fair car.
Should I replace my car as soon as it becomes a fair car, or should I drive my car until it breaks down? Assume that
the cost of operating a car during a year depends on the type of car on hand at the beginning of the year (after a new
car, if any, arrives).

3.1.1 Solution
The transition probability matrix for this situation is:
good f air broken
 
good 0.85 0.10 0.05
P = f air  0.00 0.70 0.30 
broken 0.85 0.10 0.05

Let, π = [π1 π2 π3 ] be the steady-state distribution.


π1 = 0.85π1 + 0.0π2 + 0.85π3
π2 = 0.10π1 + 0.70π2 + 0.30π3
π3 = 0.05π1 + 0.30π2 + 0.05π3
π1 + π2 + π3 = 1
We find the values of π, π1 = 0.6375π2 = 0.25π3 = 0.1125
cost = $1000 × π1 + $1500 × π2 + ($6000 + $1000) × π3 = $1800 aAs fair car can be traded in for $2,000, I should
replace my car as soon as it becomes a fair car.

3.2 Exercise 7
Consider two stocks. Stock 1 always sells for $10 or $20. If stock 1 is selling for $10 today, there is a .80 chance that
it will sell for $10 tomorrow. If it is selling for $20 today, there is a .90 chance that it will sell for $20 tomorrow. Stock
2 always sells for $10 or $25. If stock 2 sells today for $10, there is a .90 chance that it will sell tomorrow for $10. If
it sells today for $25, there is a .85 chance that it will sell tomorrow for $25. On the average, which stock will sell for
a higher price? Find and interpret all mean first passage times

3.2.1 Solution
For Stock 1: The transition probability matrix for this situation is:
10 20
 
10 0.80 0.20
P =
20 0.10 0.90

Let, π = [π1 π2 ] be the steady-state distribution.


π1 = 0.80π1 + 0.10π2
π2 = 0.20π1 + 0.90π2
π1 + π2 = 1

2
1 2
We find the values of π, π1 = 3 π2 = 3

The mean first passage time,


m12 = 1 + P11 m12 = 5
m21 = 1 + P22 m21 = 10
m11 = π11 = 3
m22 = π12 = 1.5
Expected price = π1 × $10 + π2 × $20 = $16.67

For Stock 2: The transition probability matrix for this situation is:
10 25
 
10 0.90 0.10
P =
25 0.15 0.85

Let, π = [π1 π2 ] be the steady-state distribution.


π1 = 0.90π1 + 0.15π2
π2 = 0.10π1 + 0.85π2
π1 + π2 = 1
We find the values of π, π1 = 53 π2 = 25

The mean first passage time,


m12 = 1 + P11 m12 = 10
m21 = 1 + P22 m21 = 6.67
m11 = π11 = 1.67
m22 = π12 = 2.5
Expected price = π1 × $10 + π2 × $25 = $16.00

We can say that Stock 1 will sell for higher price.

4 Chapter 17 [Section 17.6]


4.1 Exercise 1
The State College admissions office has modeled the path of a student through State College as a Markov chain:
F. So. J. Sen. Q. G.
 
F reshman .10 .80 0 0 .10 0
Sophmore  0 0.10 .85 0 .05 0  
Junior  0
 0 .15 .80 .05 0  
Senior  0
 0 0 .10 .05 .85 

Quits  0 0 0 0 1 0 
Graduates 0 0 0 0 0 1

Each students state is observed at the beginning of each fall semester. For example, if a student is a junior at the
beginning of the current fall semester, there is an 80% chance that he will be a senior at the beginning of the next fall
semester, a 15% chance that he will still be a junior, and a 5% chance that he will have quit. (We assume that once a
student quits, he never reenrolls.)
a If a student enters State College as a freshman, how many years can he expect to spend as a student at State?
b What is the probability that a freshman graduates?

4.2 Solution
(a) Here,
 
0.1 0.8 0 0
0 0.1 0.85 0 
Q= 0

0 0.15 0.8
0 0 0 0.1

3
 
0.1 0
0.05 0 
and R = 
0.05

0 
0.05 0.85
 
0.9 −0.8 0 0
0 0.9 −0.85 0 
Now, (I − Q) =  
0 0 0.85 −0.8
0 0 0 0.9
 
1.11 0.99 0.99 0.88
 0 1.11 1.11 0.99
(I − Q)−1 
 0

0 1.18 1.05
0 0 0 1.11
If a student enters State College as a freshman, the can he expect to spend as a student at State in years = 1.11 +
0.99 + 0.99 + 0/88 = 3.97 years

(b)
Q G
 
F 0.25 0.75
So 
 0.16 0.84 

(I − Q)−1 ∗ R =
J  0.11 0.89 
Sen 0.06 0.094
From the above matrix,we can say that the probability that a freshman graduates is 0.75 years

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