National

N Juniorr College Matthematics Dep

partment 20166
National Junior
J Colllege
2015 – 2016 H2 Matthematics
Probabiliity [approx. 4 lessons] Tutoriall

Basic Masstery Questtions

Table of O
Outcomes

1. The number of men and women w studdying Chem

mistry, Physsics and Bioology at a college aree
givenn in the following tablee.

Cheemistry Ph
hysics Bio
ology
Men
M 12 16 32
Wom
men 8 12 20
2

One of these stuudents is cho

osen at randdom by a researcher. Ev
vents M, W
W, C and B arre defined
as foollows:
M: the stuudent choseen is a man
W: the stuudent choseen is a womaan
C : the stu
udent choseen is studyin
ng Chemistrry
B : the stu
udent choseen is studyin
ng Biology

Find (i) P W | B  (ii) P  B |W  (iii) PB W 

Statee, with a reaason in each

h case, whetther W and B are indepeendent, andd whether M and C are
mutuually exclusive.
[GCE22007/II/25 (AM9233)]]

Use of Ven
nn Diagram
ms

2. The eevents A annd B are such h that P  A   0.43, P  B   0.48, and

a P  A  B   0.78. Show
S that
A andd B are neitther mutuallly exclusivee nor indepeendent.

3. In a ggroup of 1000 students, 25 own a pportable CD

D player, 40 own a mobbile phone, and
a 35 ownn
eitheer a portablle CD play yer or a moobile phonee, but not both.
b Find the probab bility that a
randoomly chosen student ow wns

(i) both a porrtable CD pllayer and a mobile pho

one,

(ii) a portable CD player,, given that he owns a mobile

m phon
ne.

4. Giveen that P  ( A  B )   0.15 and P(( A  B)  0.4

0 , find P(B
B) .
If P(( A) = 0.65, find
f also P(( A  B) andd P( A | B).

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 National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016
Use of Tree Diagrams

5. When Mrs Ong visits a Spa centre, she will do either Javanese massage or Swedish massage.
During her first visit, the probability that she does Javanese massage is 0.8. Thereafter, the
probability that she will do Javanese massage is 0.6 if she did one in her previous visit, and
0.7 if she did not do one in her previous visit.

(i) Show that the probability that Mrs Ong does Javanese massage in the first three
consecutive visits is 0.288.

(ii) Find the probability that she does exactly one Javanese massage in the first three
consecutive visits.

(iii) Find the probability that the fourth visit is the second time she does Javanese massage.

Use of Permutations and Combinations

6. 5 girls and 7 boys are to be seated in a row. What is the probability that

(i) not all the girls are seated next to one another?
(ii) all the girls are not seated next to one another?
(ii) 3 particular boys are to be seated together?
(iv) either all the girls are not seated next to one another or the 3 particular boys are to be
seated together or both?

7. A set of 30 cards is made up of cards chosen from a number of packs of ordinary playing
cards. The numbers of each cards of each type are given in the following table.
Spades Hearts Diamonds Clubs
King 2 3 1 3
Queen 3 3 5 2
Jack 1 2 3 2

Thus, for example, there are 2 Kings of Spades and 3 Jacks of Diamonds.

(a) One card is taken at random from the set. Find the probability that the card is a
Diamond, given that it is a King.

(b) Two cards are taken from the set, at random and without replacement. Find the
probability that both cards are Jacks. Give your answer correct to 4 decimal places.

(c) Three cards are taken from the set, at random and without replacement. Find the
probability that they are three Kings or three Queens or three Jacks.
[GCE1999/II/6 (modified)]

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 National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016
Practice Questions

1. For events A and B, it is given that P  A   0.7 , P  B   0.6 and P  A | B    0.8 . Find

(i) P  A  B ,
(ii) P  A  B ,
(iii) P  B | A  .

For a third event C, it is given that P  C   0.5 and that A and C are independent.

(v) Find P  A  C  .
(vi) Hence state an inequality satisfied by P  A  B  C  .
[GCE2010/II/7]

2. The independent events A and B are such that P( A)  x , P( B )  x  0.15 and

P( A  B )  0.55 , where x is a real constant.

(i) Find the value of x.

(ii) Find the probability that either A or B occurs, but not both.

(iii) The event C is such that P(C | B)  0.25 . Find the probability that B occurs but C does
not occur.
[NJC/2014/T2CT/8 (modified)]

3. Players A and B compete in a racquet match consisting of at most 3 sets. Each set is won by
either Player A or B, and the match is won by the first person to win two sets. Player A has a
2
probability of of winning each of the first two sets. If the match goes into the third set,
3
Player A has a probability of p of winning this set.

(i) With the aid of a tree diagram, find in terms of p, the probability that player A will win
the match.
(ii) Deduce the range of values of the probability that player A wins the match.
1
(iii) Show that the value of p in order for the match to be fair is .
8

Given that Player A wins the match, find, in terms of p, the probability that he won the 2nd set.
[2011/NYJC/Prelim]

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 National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016
4. A company buys p% of its electronic components from supplier A and the remaining
(100  p )% from supplier B. The probability that a randomly chosen component supplied by
A is faulty is 0.05. The probability that a randomly chosen component supplied by B is faulty
is 0.03.

(i) Given that p = 25, find the probability that a randomly chosen component is faulty.

(ii) For a general value of p, the probability that a randomly chosen component that is faulty
0.05 p
was supplied by A is denoted by f ( p ). Show that f ( p )  . Prove by
0.02 p  3
differentiation that f is an increasing function for 0  p  100 , and explain what this
statement means in the context of the question.
[GCE2009/II/7]

5. A bag contains 10 orange-flavoured, 14 strawberry-flavoured, and 16 cherry-flavoured sweets

which are of identical shapes and sizes. Benny selects a sweet at random from the bag. If it is
not cherry-flavoured he replaces it and selects another sweet at random. He repeats the
process until he obtains a cherry-flavoured sweet.

Calculate the probability that

(i) the first sweet selected is strawberry-flavoured and the fourth sweet is orange-flavoured,

(ii) he selects an even number of sweets.

[2007/HCI/Prelim]

6. There are 36 people at a BBQ party of two families. There are 25 people with the surname
Tan and 11 people with the surname Lim. Of the 25 people named Tan, 4 are single men, 5
are single women and there are 8 married couples. Of the 11 people named Lim, 2 are single
men, 3 are single women and there are 3 married couples. Two people are chosen at random
from the party.

10
(i) Show that the probability that they both have the surname Tan is .
21
(ii) Find the probability that they are married to each other.
(iii) Find the probability that they both have the surname Tan, given that they are married to
each other.
(iv) Find the probability that they are a man and a woman with the same surname.
(v) Find the probability that they are married to each other, given that they are a
man and a woman with the same surname.

7. An unbiased die is thrown 6 times. Calculate the probabilities that the 6 scores obtained will:
(i) consist of exactly two 6’s and four odd numbers,
(ii) be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in some order,
(iii) have a product which is an even number,
(iv) be such that a 6 occurs only on the last throw and that exactly three of the first five
throws result in odd numbers.

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 National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016
8. Liang Liang and Choon Choon play a game by extending their hands simultaneously to
indicate one of the three objects “scissors”, “paper” or “stone”. “Scissors” beat “paper”,
“paper” beats “stone” and “stone” beats “scissors”. A player wins a game when the object he
indicates beats his opponent’s. If the objects indicated are the same, the result is a draw.

The table shows the probabilities that Liang Liang and Choon Choon indicates each of the
objects at any one game.

Scissors Paper Stone

Liang Liang 0.5 0.4 0.1
Choon Choon 0.6 p 0.4 – p

(a) Find, in terms of p, the probability that Choon Choon wins the game when Liang Liang
does not indicate “paper”.

(b) Explain clearly whether the game can be fair for both players.

9. An unbiased six-sided die is thrown multiple times.

(i) Find the probability that at least one 6 appears after the die is thrown exactly 5 times.

(ii) Find, in terms of n, the probability that at least one 6 appears after the die is thrown
exactly n times.

(iii) How many times must the die be thrown so that the probability of obtaining at least one
6 is at least 0.99?

Suppose now that the die is thrown until a ‘6’ appears. Find, in terms of n, the probability that

(iv) it will take exactly n throws,

(v) it will take at least n throws.

Given that no ‘6’ appeared in the first n throws, state the probability that a ‘6’ will appear in
the ( n  1) th throw.

Comment on the validity of the following statement made by a gambler: “Since I have not
obtained a ‘6’ in the last 10 throws, the next throw is likely to be a ‘6’.”

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 National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016
Further Practice Questions

1. In a popular weekly number game, a computer generates a combination of 6 different

numbers that can be any number from 1 to 15. A player places a stake for a choice of 6
different numbers from 1 to 15. He wins the game if he gets at least four of the numbers
correct. Let X be the number of correct answers he has chosen.

The distribution of X is illustrated in the table below.

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P  X  x 12 108
715 715

Copy and complete the probability distribution table of X.

Hence find the probability of winning the game.

Given that a player has won the game, what is the probability that he wins with five numbers?
(Give all the probabilities in terms of fractions in their lowest terms.)

1 1 1
2. Events A and B are such that P( B )  , P( A  B )  and P( A  B )  . Find
3 5 6
(i) P( A  B) ,
(ii) P( A | B) .

Hence determine whether events A and B are independent.

[2013/TPJC/Prelim]

3. A teacher conducted a survey on a large number of students to determine the choice of

colours for painting the school hall from 3 colour options of white, green and blue. Of the
students surveyed, 40% were boys and 60% were girls. Of the boys, 50% chose white, 20%
chose green and the rest chose blue. Of the girls, 25% chose white, 45% chose green and the
rest chose blue.
Draw a probability tree diagram to illustrate the above information.

(i) One student is randomly selected. Find the probability that the student chose white.

(ii) Two students are randomly selected. Find the probability that the two students are of the
same gender or they chose different colours (or both).

(iii) Three girls are randomly selected. Find the probability that exactly 1 girl chose white,
given that none of them chose blue.
[2013/SAJC/Prelim]

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 National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016
4. The medical test for a certain infection is not completely reliable: if an individual has the
infection there is a probability of 0.95 that the test will prove positive, and if an individual
does not have the infection there is a probability of 0.1 that the test will prove positive. In a
certain population, the probability that an individual chosen at random will have the infection
is p. This information is shown on the tree diagram below.

0.95 Positive

Infected
p Negative

Positive
Not
infected
0.1 Negative

(i) An individual is chosen at random and tested. Show that the probability of the test being
positive is 0.1 + 0.85p.

(ii) Express in terms of p the conditional probability that a randomly chosen individual
whose test is positive has the infection. Given that this probability is 0.6, find the
conditional probability that a randomly chosen individual whose test is negative does
not have the infection.

5. A player throws three darts at a target. The probability that he is successful in hitting the
1
target with his first throw is . For each of his second and third throws, the probability of
8
success is

 twice the probability of success on the preceding throw if that throw was successful.

 the same as the probability of success on the preceding throw if that throw was
unsuccessful.

Construct a probability tree showing this information.

Find

(i) the probability that all three throws are successful.

(ii) the probability that at least two throws are successful.

(iii) the probability that the third throw is successful, given that exactly two of the three
throws are successful.
[GCE2007/II/7]

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6. In a particular country, cultured milk are manufactured, in bottles, by two companies, Yacoat
and Vitergent. 60% of all cultured milk in that country are manufactured by Yacoat while the
remaining 40% are manufactured by Vitergent. Both companies manufacture the cultured
milk in three different flavours, “Apple”, “Grape” and “Orange”, and the percentage of each
flavour manufactured by each of the two companies is as follows,

Apple Grape Orange

Yacoat 50% 30% 20%
Vitergent 100p% 10% 100q%

where p and q are real constants. A bottle of cultured milk is randomly selected.

(a) Find the probability that

(i) it is grape-flavoured.

(ii) it was manufactured by Yacoat, given that it is grape-flavoured.

(b) Suppose that the probability that it is apple-flavoured and is manufactured by Vitergent
is 0.1 less than the probability that it is orange-flavoured and manufactured by
Vitergent. By setting up two equations involving p and q, find the values of p and q.

Three bottles are selected at random.

(c) Find the probability that exactly one of them is grape-flavoured.

[2015/NJC/Prelim/P2/10 (modified)]

7. A committee of 10 people is chosen at random from a group consisting of 18 women and 12

men. The number of women on the committee is denoted by R.

(i) Find the probability that R  4 .

(ii) The most probable number of women on the committee is denoted by r. By using
the fact that P  R  r   P  R  r  1 , show that r satisfies the inequality

(r  1)!(17  r )!(9  r )!(r  3)!  r !(18  r )!(10  r )!(r  2)!

and use this inequality to find the value of r.

[GCE2011/II/11]

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Challenging Questions

1. In a sales campaign, a petrol company gives each motorist who buys their petrol a card with a
picture of a film star on it. There are 10 different pictures, one each of 10 different film stars,
and any motorist who collects a complete set of all 10 pictures gets a free gift. On any
occasion when a motorist buys petrol, the card received is equally likely to carry any one of
the 10 pictures in the set. Two of the ten film stars in the set are X and Y.

Find the probability that the first four cards received result in the motorist having

(i) all different pictures,

(ii) exactly three different pictures,

(iii) a picture of X or of Y or of both.

At a certain stage, the motorist has collected nine of the ten pictures. Find the least value of n
such that the probability that at most n more cards are needed to complete the set exceeds
0.99.

2. A room contains n randomly chosen people.

(a) Assume that a randomly chosen person is equally likely to have been born on any day of
the week. The probability that the people in the room were all born on different days of
the week is denoted by P.

(i) Find P in the case n  3 .

120
(ii) Show that P  in the case n  4 .
343

(b) Assume now that a randomly chosen person is equally likely to have been born in any
month of the year. Find the smallest value of n such that the probability that the people
1
in the room were all born in different months of the year is less than .
2

(c) Assume now that a randomly chosen person is equally likely to be born on any of the
365 days in the year. It is given that for the case n  21 , the probability that the people
in the room were all born on different days of the year is 0.55631, correct to 5 places of
decimals. Find the smallest value of n such that the probability that at least two of the
1
people were born on the same day of the year exceeds . [GCE2002/II/30(Either)]
2

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 National Junior College Mathematics Department 2016
Probability Tutorial – Numerical Answers
Basic Mastery Questions
5 1 18 3 3
1. (i) (ii) (iii) 3. (i) (ii)
13 2 25 20 8
4
4. P  B   0.45 ; P  A  B   0.25 ; P  A | B  
9
5. (ii) 0.194 (iii) 0.1316
98 7 1 29
6. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
99 99 22 252
1 213
7. (a) (b) 0.0644 (c) or 0.105
9 2030
Practice Questions
16
1. (i) 0.32 (ii) 0.92 (iii) (iv) 0.15
35
2. (i) 0.25 (ii) 0.45 (iii) 0.3

4( p  1) 4 8 2 p
3. (i) (ii)  P  A wins   (iii)
9 9 9 22p
63 3
4. (i) 0.035 5. (i) (ii)
2000 8
11 8 31 11
6. (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)
630 11 105 186
5 5 63 5
7. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
192 324 64 216
1 2p 4651
8. (i)  9. (i) (iii) 26
3 3 7776

Further Practice Questions

17 54 5 3
1. , 2. (i) (ii)
143 595 6 4
3. (i) 0.35 (ii) 0.8536 (iii) 0.443
3 1 21 13
4. (ii) p ; 0.991 5.(i) (ii) (iii)
22 64 256 17
9
6. (a)(i) 0.22 (a)(ii) or 0.818 (b) p  0.325, q  0.575 (c) 0.402
11
816
7 (i) or 0.0941 (ii) 6
8671
Challenging Questions
63 54 369
1. (i) (ii) (iii) ; 44
125 125 625
30
2. (a)(i) (b) 5 (c) 23
49

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