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Greenlam Industries FY2021-24 Growth and Expansion Analysis

- We retain a Buy rating on Greenlam Industries with a revised target price of Rs. 1,605 due to its healthy earnings growth outlook over 2021-2024 despite reporting lower than expected earnings this quarter. - While revenues were higher than expected, increased raw material costs impacted margins as the company was unable to fully pass on costs to international clients. - Greenlam's planned expansion of laminate capacity and product range is expected to drive further growth.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
96 views7 pages

Greenlam Industries FY2021-24 Growth and Expansion Analysis

- We retain a Buy rating on Greenlam Industries with a revised target price of Rs. 1,605 due to its healthy earnings growth outlook over 2021-2024 despite reporting lower than expected earnings this quarter. - While revenues were higher than expected, increased raw material costs impacted margins as the company was unable to fully pass on costs to international clients. - Greenlam's planned expansion of laminate capacity and product range is expected to drive further growth.

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Stock Update

Greenlam Industries Ltd


Promising growth outlook
Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Building materials Sharekhan code: GREENLAM Result Update

3R MATRIX + = - Summary
Š We retain Buy on Greenlam Industries Limited (Greenlam) with a revised PT of Rs. 1,605,
Right Sector (RS) ü considering its healthy earnings growth outlook over FY2021-FY2024E.
Š The company reported better than expected revenues but was affected by increased raw
material costs due to its inability to pass on cost to international clients that led to lower than
Right Quality (RQ) ü expected net earnings.
Š Its 1.5 million laminate capacity is expected to be onstream by Q3FY2023 which along with
Right Valuation (RV) ü expansion in product adjacencies would provide next leg of growth.
Š Dominant industry position, strong domestic growth outlook, demand shift from unorganised
+ Positive = Neutral - Negative to organised players and rising export opportunities to lead to healthy earnings growth over
FY2021-FY2024E.

What has changed in 3R MATRIX Greenlam Industries Limited (Greenlam) reported higher than expected consolidated revenues at
Rs. 336 crore (up 109.6% y-o-y, down 19.1% q-o-q) led by strong growth in laminates revenues
Old New (92% revenue share in Q1FY22) and grew by 112.7% (-15.3% q-o-q) at Rs. 310 crore driven by 121%
y-o-y (-15.5% q-o-q) rise in volume. Veneer & Allied segment revenues (28% revenue share) grew
RS  by 80% y-o-y (-47% q-o-q) to Rs. 26.5 crore. Revenue from wood flooring/door business rose by
121%/35.1%. Domestic/international laminate volumes were up 135%/112.5% y-o-y, while value
growth was at 148%/97.3% y-o-y, respectively. The laminate division capacity utilization stood at
RQ  110% in Q1FY2022 versus 112% in Q4FY2021 but the same could not be converted to sales (despite
client orders) due to the delayed unlocking of domestic markets along with availability constraints
RV  of containers delaying export sales. The company estimates Rs. 30 crore worth of lost sales for
Q1FY2022. The company’s gross margins at 45.9% were down 382bps y-o-y (-284bps q-o-q) which
was affected by rising raw material costs (chemical and craft paper prices were up 30-35% y-o-y
Reco/View Change and 30-40% y-o-y) and lower value mix. The company was not able to pass on the rise in raw
material cost to international clients (laminate export sales grew by 3.6% q-o-q while domestic
Reco: Buy  sales de-grew by 36.5% q-o-q) leading to lower blended gross margins. However, it has taken two
rounds of price increase, one in March 2021 and another 2-2.5% price hike is communicated which
CMP: Rs. 1,361 should be effective during Q2FY2022. Consequently, OPM at 11.4% (+646bps y-o-y, -478bps q-o-q)
came in much below our estimate of 15.7%. Consolidated operating profit grew by 386% y-o-y
Price Target: Rs. 1,605 á (-43% q-o-q) to Rs. 38.2 crore (lower than our expectation). Lower base and expansion in OPM on
y-o-y basis led to a consolidated net profit of Rs. 17.4 crore versus net loss of 7.7 crore in Q1FY2021
and net profit of Rs. 43.3 crore in Q4FY2021. The consolidated net debt increased q-o-q by Rs. 90
á Upgrade  Maintain â Downgrade crore to Rs. 213 crore (Net debt/Equity of 0.36x Vs 0.21x in Q4FY2021) as production continued in
Q1FY2022 but was converted to sales. The inventory level is expected to streamline in Q2FY2022.
Company details On its 1.5 million sheet Greenfield expansion in south, the company took the possession of 66.49
acres land. It is undertaking required approvals and licenses for the Greenfield Project of which
Market cap: Rs. 3,285 cr commercial production is expected to commence by Q3FY2023. We have fine tuned our estimates
for FY2022E-FY2023E. We introduce FY2024E earnings in this note. GRLM is currently trading at a
52-week high/low: Rs. 1459/585 P/E of 25x/21x its FY2023E/FY2024E earnings, which we believe provides further room for upside,
considering 22% net earnings CAGR over FY2021-FY2024E. Hence, we retain our Buy rating with
NSE volume: revised price target (PT) of Rs. 1,605.
0.1 lakh
(No of shares) Key positives

BSE code: 538979 Š Strong outperformance on revenue led by higher than expected volume.
Š Greenfield capacity expansion expected to be operational by Q3FY2022.
NSE code: GREENLAM Key negatives
Free float: Š Loss of sales and EBITDA due to delayed unlocking of domestic markets and challenges for
1.1 cr container availability for exports.
(No of shares)
Š Lower gross margins impacted by steep rise in raw material which has been passed through lag
effect.
Shareholding (%) Our Call
Promoters 54.9 Valuation – Maintain Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 1,605: Greenlam, with its dominant industry position,
strong domestic growth outlook, demand shift from unorganised to organised players and rising
export opportunities is slated to see revenue/EBITDA/net profit report a CAGR of 14%/16.5%/22.4%
FII 1.3 over FY2021-FY2024E. Further, Greenlam’s planned Greenfield capacity expansion plan along with
expected expansion in product adjacencies would provide the next leg of growth. Strong operating
DII 16.8 cash flow generation (Rs. 500 crore+ over FY2022E-FY2024E) would help de-leverage the balance
sheet and improve RoCE. We have fine tuned our estimates for FY2022E-FY2023E. We have introduced
Others 27.0 FY2024E earnings in this note. GRLM is currently trading at a P/E of 25x/21x its FY2023E/FY2024E
earnings, which we believe provides further room for upside, considering 22% net earnings CAGR over
FY2021-FY2024E. Hence, we retain our Buy rating with revised price target (PT) of Rs. 1,605.
Price chart
Key Risks
1,500
Weak macroeconomic environment leading to a lull in industry growth trend.
1,300
1,100
Valuation (Consolidated) Rs cr
900
700 Particulars FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
500 Revenue 1,199.6 1,499.8 1,620.3 1,777.2
OPM (%) 14.4 14.3 15.0 15.4
Jul-20

Jul-21
Nov-20

Mar-21

Adjusted PAT 86.2 110.0 132.2 158.2


% Y-o-Y growth (0.6) 27.7 20.2 19.6
Price performance Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 35.7 45.6 54.8 65.5
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m P/E (x) 38.1 29.9 24.9 20.8
P/B (x) 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.5
Absolute 9.8 18.7 70.4 83.7
EV/EBIDTA (x) 20.5 16.6 14.6 12.9
Relative to
10.1 13.0 58.2 47.1 RoNW (%) 16.0 17.7 18.2 18.6
Sensex
RoCE (%) 12.2 14.4 15.6 16.6
Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg
Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

July 27, 2021 2


Stock Update
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3R Research Philosophy

Strong revenue outperformance while weak gross margins a blip


Greenlam Industries Limited (Greenlam) reported higher than expected consolidated revenues at Rs. 336
crore (up 109.6% y-o-y, down 19.1% q-o-q) led by strong growth in laminates (92% revenue share in Q1FY22)
grew by 112.7% (-15.3% q-o-q) at Rs. 310 crore driven by 121% y-o-y (-15.5% q-o-q) rise in volume. Veneer &
Allied segment revenues (28% revenue share) grew by 80% y-o-y (-47% q-o-q) to Rs. 26.5 crore. Revenue
from wood flooring/door business rose by 121%/35.1%. Domestic/international laminate volumes were up
135%/112.5% y-o-y, while value growth was 148%/97.3% y-o-y, respectively. The laminate division capacity
utilization stood at 110% in Q1FY2022 versus 112% in Q4FY2021 but the same could not be converted to sales
(despite client orders) due to delayed unlocking of domestic markets along with availability constraints of
containers delaying export sales. The company estimates Rs. 30 crore worth of lost sales for Q1FY2022.
The company’s gross margins at 45.9% were down 382bps y-o-y (-284bps q-o-q) which was affected by
rising raw material costs (chemical and craft paper prices were up 30-35% y-o-y and 30-40% y-o-y) and
lower value mix. The company was not able to pass on the rise in raw material cost to international clients
(laminate export sales grew by 3.6% q-o-q while domestic sales de-grew by 36.5% q-o-q) leading to lower
blended gross margins. However, it has taken two rounds of price increase, one in March 2021 and another
2-2.5% price hike is communicated which should be effective during Q2FY2022. Consequently, OPM at 11.4%
(+646bps y-o-y, -478bps q-o-q) came in much below our estimate of 15.7%. Consolidated operating profit
grew by 386% y-o-y (-43% q-o-q) to Rs. 38.2 crore (lower than our expectation). Lower base and expansion
in OPM on y-o-y basis led to consolidated net profit of Rs. 17.4 crore versus net loss of 7.7 crore in Q1FY2021
and net profit of Rs. 43.3 crore in Q4FY2021.
Capacity expansion on track
On its 1.5 million sheet Greenfield expansion in the south, the company took the possession of 66.49 acres
land. It is undertaking required approvals and licenses for the Greenfield Project of which commercial
production is expected to commence by Q3FY2023. The consolidated net debt increased q-o-q by Rs. 90
crore to Rs. 213 crore (Net debt/Equity of 0.36x Vs 0.21x in Q4FY2021) as production continued in Q1FY2022
but was converted to sales. The inventory level is expected to streamline in Q2FY2022. Greenlam’s planned
Greenfield capacity expansion plan along with expected expansion in product adjacencies would provide
the next leg of growth. Strong operating cash flow generation (Rs. 500 crore+ over FY2022E-FY2024E) would
help de-leverage the balance sheet and improve RoCE.
Key Conference Call Takeaways
Š Loss of sales in Q1FY2022: The company could not convert Rs. 30 crore worth of sales which were
backed by client orders on account of non-availability of containers and delayed unlocking of domestic
markets.
Š Raw material impact: The company continued to suffer on rising raw material prices which till date has
been on the uptrend. It was able to pass the rise in raw material price in domestic markets but the pass
through in international markets was partially done in Q2FY2022. It has been able to pass the rise in sea
freights since January 2021 to its international clients. The chemical prices have risen by 30-35% y-o-y
with some rising by 70-80%. Craft paper prices are up 30-40% y-o-y.
Š Working capital: The company was able to manage debtors reasonably well although rise in finished
and raw material inventories increased working capital requirement. The inventory level is expected to
streamline in Q2FY2022.
Š Demand outlook: The management expects residential demand to improve. The demand is reverting to
normalcy in July 2021. International markets remain mixed where some parts in South East Asia are under
lockdown while European and USA markets are better positioned.
Š Unorganised to organized demand shift: The demand is expected to shift from unorganized to organized
players due to rise in raw material prices, supply chain disruptions and demand volatility.
Š Leverage: The debt level has gone up by Rs. 90 crores in Q1FY2022 as production continued but could
not be converted to sales.
Š Growth outlook: In FY2022, the management expects export value growth to be 10-12% y-o-y. Both
domestic and exports revenues are expected to grow.
Š Capacity expansion: The company completed land registration for its 1.5 million laminate sheet Greenfield
plant in South, Andhra Pradesh. It expects to start construction in Q3FY2022 and commercial production
post 12 months.
Š New ventures: The company is looking at opportunities in product adjacencies and will share the details
once finalized.

July 27, 2021 3


Stock Update
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3R Research Philosophy

Results (Consolidated) Rs cr
Particulars Q1FY22 Q1FY21 YoY (%) Q4FY21 QoQ (%)
Net sales 336.1 160.4 109.6% 415.3 -19.1%
Other income 1.9 1.0 80.5% 3.0 -38.3%
Total income 338.0 161.4 109.4% 418.4 -19.2%
Total expenses 297.9 152.5 95.4% 348.3 -14.4%
Operating profit 38.2 7.9 385.8% 67.1 -43.0%
Depreciation 14.2 13.5 5.5% 14.1 1.0%
Interest 3.4 5.0 -32.3% 3.5 -3.0%
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 -12.4
Profit Before Tax 22.5 -9.5 - 40.2 -44.0%
Taxes 5.2 -1.8 - 9.3 -44.3%
Minority Interest -0.1 0.0 -0.1
PAT 17.4 -7.7 - 30.9 -43.7%
Adjusted PAT 17.4 -7.7 - 43.3 -59.8%
EPS (Rs.) 7.2 -3.2 - 18.0 -59.8%

OPM (%) 11.4% 4.9% 646 bps 16.1% -478 bps


NPM (%) 5.2% -4.8% - 7.5% -226 bps
Tax rate (%) 23.0% 19.0% 392 bps 23.1% -14 bps
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

July 27, 2021 4


Stock Update
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3R Research Philosophy

Outlook and Valuation


n Sector view - Expect faster recovery in operations
The building materials industry was severely affected by COVID-19 led lockdown during Q1FY2021, which
had affected its peak sales period of the year. Additionally, its high fixed cost structure had affected OPM,
dragging down its net earnings. However, from June, the sector has been one of the fastest to recover, with the
easing of the lockdown domestically. The sector witnessed resumption of dealer and distribution networks
and a sharp improvement in capacity utilisation levels. Most players have begun to see demand and revenue
run-rate reaching 80%-90% compared to pre-COVID levels. Scaling up of revenue is also expected to lead
to better absorption of fixed costs going ahead, aiding net earnings recovery. The industry is expected to
rebound with strong growth in FY2022.
n Company outlook - Multiple growth levers for sustainable growth
Greenlam is a joint leader in the Rs. 5,700 crore laminate industry with a market share of ~20%. The company
is expected to ride on strong growth, being envisaged for the wooden furniture industry, which is expected
to post a 12% CAGR over 2020-2023. Key growth drivers are rising income levels, urbanisation, real estate
development, and Housing for All, among others. Further, we expect Greenlam to grow at a faster pace,
benefiting from market share gains from the unorganised sector, leveraging its strong distribution network.
The government’s focus on making India an export hub provides strong export growth opportunities for
Greenlam. The company, through its subsidiary Greenlam South Limited (GSL), is undertaking 1.5 million
sheet Brownfield capacity expansion in Andhra Pradesh withcapex of Rs. 175 crore, which is expected to
commission during FY2023. The said expansion is expected to bring about the next leg of growth for the
company.
n Valuation - Maintain Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 1,605
Greenlam, with its dominant industry position, strong domestic growth outlook, demand shift from unorganised
to organised players and rising export opportunities is slated to see revenue/EBITDA/net profit report a CAGR
of 14%/16.5%/22.4% over FY2021-FY2024E. Further, Greenlam’s planned Greenfield capacity expansion plan
along with expected expansion in product adjacencies would provide the next leg of growth. Strong operating
cash flow generation (Rs. 500 crore+ over FY2022E-FY2024E) would help de-leverage the balance sheet and
improve RoCE. We have fine tuned our estimates for FY2022E-FY2023E. We introduce FY2024E earnings
in this note. GRLM is currently trading at a P/E of 25x/21x its FY2023E/FY2024E earnings, which we believe
provides further room for upside, considering 22% net earnings CAGR over FY2021-FY2024E. Hence, we retain
our Buy rating with revised price target (PT) of Rs. 1,605.

One-year forward P/E (x) band

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Sep-16

Feb-17
Jan-16

Sep-17
Jan-17

Sep-18

Feb-19
Jan-18

Sep-19
Jan-19

Feb-20

Feb-21
Jan-21
Mar-16

Mar-18
Dec-15

Mar-20
Jun-16

Dec-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Jul-15
Aug-15

Aug-16

Jul-17
Oct-15

Aug-18

Jul-19
Oct-17

Aug-20

Jul-21
Oct-19

Oct-20
Apr-15
May-15

May-16

Apr-17
May-17
Nov-16

May-18

Apr-19
Nov-18

May-20

Apr-21
Nov-20

1yr fwd P/E Peak 1yr fwd P/E Trough 1yr fwd P/E Avg 1yr fwd P/E

Source: Sharekhan Research

Peer Comparison
P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%)
Company
FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E
Greenlam Industries 29.9 24.9 16.6 14.6 4.8 4.1 17.7 18.2
Greenpanel Industries 18.4 13.4 10.2 8.4 3.3 2.7 19.6 22.5
Century Plyboards 38.1 31.2 24.3 20.0 6.5 5.4 18.4 19.0
Source: Company, Sharekhan estimates

July 27, 2021 5


Stock Update
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3R Research Philosophy

About company
Greenlam is among the world’s top 3, Asia’s largest, and India’s No. 1 surfacing solutions brand. With its
presence in over 100 countries, Greenlam has a team of over 14,000 distributors and dealers along with
more than 4,500 employees. The company offers end-to-end surfacing solutions spread across laminates,
compacts, veneers, engineered wooden floors, and engineered wooden doors and frames to choose from.
With two manufacturing facilities in the country, the company is the first choice of home owners, architects,
and interior designers, when it comes to transforming living spaces.

Investment theme
Greenlam is a joint leader in the Rs. 5,700 crore laminate industry with a market share of ~20%. The company
is expected to ride on strong growth being envisaged for the wooden furniture industry, which is expected to
post a 12% CAGR over 2020-2023. Key growth drivers for the industry are rising income levels, urbanisation,
real estate development, and Housing for All, among others. Further, we expect Greenlam to grow at a
faster pace, benefiting with market share gains from the unorganised sector, leveraging its strong distribution
network. The government’s focus on making India an export hub provides strong export growth opportunities
for Greenlam.

Key Risks
Š Slowdown in the macro economy, leading to weak realty market.
Š High concentration in the laminate industry.

Additional Data
Key management personnel
Mr. Shiv Prakash Mittal Chairman
Ashok Kumar Sharma Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Saurabh Mittal Executive Director-CEO-MD
Ms. Parul Mittal Executive Director
Source: Company

Top 10 shareholders
Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%)
1 Greenply Leasing & Finance 37.55
2 Mittal Saurabh 13.04
3 HDFC Asset Management Co. 9.03
4 Blue Diamond Properties 7.23
5 Dhawan Ashish 5.65
6 DSP Investment Managers 3.05
7 IDFC Mutual Fund 2.49
8 Mittal Shiv Prakash 2.10
9 Mittal Parul 1.98
10 Bhansali Akash 1.69
Source: Bloomberg

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

July 27, 2021 6


Understanding the Sharekhan 3R Matrix
Right Sector
Positive Strong industry fundamentals (favorable demand-supply scenario, consistent
industry growth), increasing investments, higher entry barrier, and favorable
government policies
Neutral Stagnancy in the industry growth due to macro factors and lower incremental
investments by Government/private companies
Negative Unable to recover from low in the stable economic environment, adverse
government policies affecting the business fundamentals and global challenges
(currency headwinds and unfavorable policies implemented by global industrial
institutions) and any significant increase in commodity prices affecting profitability.
Right Quality
Positive Sector leader, Strong management bandwidth, Strong financial track-record,
Healthy Balance sheet/cash flows, differentiated product/service portfolio and
Good corporate governance.
Neutral Macro slowdown affecting near term growth profile, Untoward events such as
natural calamities resulting in near term uncertainty, Company specific events
such as factory shutdown, lack of positive triggers/events in near term, raw
material price movement turning unfavourable
Negative Weakening growth trend led by led by external/internal factors, reshuffling of
key management personal, questionable corporate governance, high commodity
prices/weak realisation environment resulting in margin pressure and detoriating
balance sheet
Right Valuation
Positive Strong earnings growth expectation and improving return ratios but valuations
are trading at discount to industry leaders/historical average multiples, Expansion
in valuation multiple due to expected outperformance amongst its peers and
Industry up-cycle with conducive business environment.
Neutral Trading at par to historical valuations and having limited scope of expansion in
valuation multiples.
Negative Trading at premium valuations but earnings outlook are weak; Emergence of
roadblocks such as corporate governance issue, adverse government policies
and bleak global macro environment etc warranting for lower than historical
valuation multiple.
Source: Sharekhan Research
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