Img 5b0c1bc236f606.35713466 Avendus-Restaurant Industry Report
Img 5b0c1bc236f606.35713466 Avendus-Restaurant Industry Report
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MESSAGE FROM THE AUTHOR
In this report we have attempted to provide an overview of the global restaurant industry with
an emphasis on the US restaurant industry and Indian restaurant industry. We start with brief
overview of the global restaurant industry structure/segmentation and size with an emphasis on
the US restaurant industry, which is the largest, and also the most organised. Next, we cover the
valuation of listed food services companies and the deals in the segment including a commentary
on the emerging trends in the merger and acquisition / private equity in the industry. We also
also cover the Indian industry structure, key players and deals in the industry and include brief
commentary on the challenges faced by the industry.
While the restaurant industry size and deals in the sector is well covered and researched to
some extent, we felt a need to share some of the operational best practices followed by large
restaurant chains which the Indian restaurant companies may take inspiration from, while
scaling their brands. In this report we have also attempted to touch on some of the factors that
determine the success of a restaurant such as the food and beverage menu, the importance of
customer experience, marketing and promotion, operational aspects, and how technology is
changing the industry.
The report is an attempt to collate as much secondary data we could gather from disparate
sources. We welcome feedback from each of you and apologize if anything we’ve written (or
missed out) offends anyone’s sensitivities.
We trust you’ll find this report useful as you formulate your own thoughts, and look forward to a
continued, meaningful dialogue with you as the industry evolves.
Amit Kadoo
Vice President
[email protected]
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INDUSTRY
Global Restaurant Industry
The global restaurant industry is estimated to be USD 2.7 trillion in annual sales (2014), with
more than 15 million locations, and is poised to grow to USD 3.6 trillion by 2019. The industry is
fragmented with independent restaurants accounting for nearly three-fourth of the industry.
Given the size and population, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for around 40% of the value. US-
Canada is the second biggest region by value, accounting for over 20%, but has the highest per
capital spend in the world.
US-Canada is also the most organised region with restaurant chains accounting for over half of
the market compared to other regions where restaurant chains account for less than one-fifth of
the market. The top US restaurant chains such as McDonald’s, Starbucks, Subway, Burger King,
Pizza Hut, KFC and Domino’s are also the largest global chains.
Outside of the US, the large food and services players fall typically into the following categories
ЛЛ Contract food services players such as Compass Group and Sodexo
ЛЛ Companies that specialise in managing restaurant outlets at airports and railway
stations such as Autogrill SPA
ЛЛ Convenience stores such as 7-Eleven and Lawson or in-store retailers like Ikea
ЛЛ Franchisees of US restaurant brands like Alsea SAB (Mexican franchisee of Domino’s,
Starbucks, Burger King, among others)
ЛЛ Pub companies in the UK like Greene King and JD Wetherspoon
ЛЛ Other brands such as Costa Coffee (UK) and Nando’s (South Africa) are creating a space
for themselves in the global restaurant market, while brands like Dicos (China), Sukiya
(Japan) and Quick (Belgium) are going strong in their home markets.
The high penetration of restaurant chains in the US-Canada region can be partially attributed
to high per capita income. It is estimated that as other countries catch up, the penetration of
restaurant chains in the US will continue to increase. There are, however, other factors that have
helped increase the penetration of restaurant chains in the US:
ЛЛ In the US, the restaurant industry’s share of the food dollar is almost half.
ЛЛ Fast food or quick-service-restaurant chains are a unique American invention; quick-service
restaurants account for three-fourth of the combined sales of the top-100 brands in the
US.
While the restaurant industry in Western Europe is almost as large as the US and has comparable
per capita income, the market is not homogenous. Compared to that, the quick-service burger
concept alone accounts for over 30% of the combined sales of the top-100 brands in the US.
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Interesting Facts
ЛЛ Global system-wide sales (combined revenue of owned stores and franchised stores) of
McDonald’s are around USD 90 billion or over 3.3% of the global industry.
ЛЛ McDonald’s, ranked number 6 and valued at USD 39.5 billion, is the only restaurant brand
in the top 50 most valuable global brands as compiled by Forbes in 2015.
ЛЛ Subway has the largest number of locations worldwide with over 44,500 outlets in 111
countries.
ЛЛ The combined valuation of McDonald’s and Starbucks is around USD 190 billion, which is
more than the combined valuation of the next 50 global restaurant companies.
ЛЛ The sales of the largest Indian restaurant company, Jubilant FoodWorks Limited, are
around 1% of McDonald’s US system-wide sales.
11.0% 14.7%
20.1% 16.6%
20.5% 18.8%
40.9% 42%
Source: www.nrn.com
Note: tn - trillion
47%
74% 80% 75%
81% 86% 81%
53%
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US Restaurant Industry
The National Restaurant Association (USA) defines the industry as all meals /snacks prepared
away from home, including all takeout meals. The industry has grown from USD 43 billion in 1970
to USD 709 billion in 2015 as the industry’s share of the food dollar increased from 25% in 1955
to 47% in 2015. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales for the period was 6.4%, with
the 1970s being the fastest-growing decade when the industry tripled between 1970 and 1980.
The industry is categorised into two broad categories – commercial establishments (accounted
for around 91%) and non-commercial establishments (comprised the rest).
Commercial Establishments
ЛЛ Eating and drinking places (restaurants and bars/taverns) - At USD 491 billion, these
establishments have the biggest share in the industry. The industry is dominated by the
top-100 brands that account for nearly half the market in value terms.
ЛЛ Managed Services - Food and beverages served at cafeterias of schools, offices, hospitals
and other commercial places that are managed by companies such as Compass Group
and Sodexo account for USD 50 billion.
ЛЛ Lodging Places - Food and beverages served at hotels, motels and serviced apartment
account for USD 37 billion.
ЛЛ Retail/ Vending/ Recreational - Food and beverages sold at retail stores, vending machines
and recreational centres (movie halls, amusement parks) account for USD 70 billion.
Non-Commercial Establishments
ЛЛ Non-Commercial Food Services - Includes food provided by employers, schools, colleges
and universities, hospitals and community centres on a non-commercial basis accounts
for USD 59 billion.
ЛЛ Military Restaurants - Food served at military canteens accounted for USD 3 billion.
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Impact of US restaurant industry
Industry Size (USD 709 bn) US Restaurant Size (USD 491 bn)
Source: National Restaurant Association (USA), www.nrn.com, Avendus analysis (CY 2015)
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Limited-service restaurants (quick-service restaurants [QSR])
In these restaurants, customers generally order at the cash counter and pay before they eat.
Servers either serve food or customers have to collect it themselves. The menu is typically limited
to a particular theme/cuisine such as burgers, sandwiches, pizzas and Mexican. This segment
accounts for around USD 211 billion or 43% of the restaurant and bar market. Traditionally, the
segment is categorised based on the cuisine; the burger segment is the largest. Fast casual, which
is currently a part of the QSR segment, is fast emerging as an independent segment. The key
differentiating factors in fast casual are (a) the food is made-to-order boasting complex flavours,
(b) typically fresh ingredients are used and (c) the décor is upscale resulting in a higher ticket
size compared to traditional QSRs. The fast-casual segment is the fastest-growing segment due
to increase in the demand for customisation and fresh ingredients. Panera Bread and Chipotle
Mexican Grill (Chipotle) are the largest fast-casual chains.
ЛЛ QSR chains like McDonald’s and Subway were amongst the first to expand nationally and
then internationally on account of standardisation of processes and franchising.
ЛЛ As the menu was limited to a type of cuisine and the menu and processes could be
standardised easily, QSR chains proliferated along with their closest segment–the snacks
and beverage segment.
ЛЛ Out of the top-10 US brands, 7 belong to the QSR segment and 2 belong to snack and
beverage companies–Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts.
ЛЛ The top-100 US brands have 52 QSR companies. These companies account for over
130,000 units and USD 152 billion in sales, representing 68% of aggregate units and 65%
of aggregate sales of the top-100 brands.
ЛЛ The top-52 QSR brands account for 72% of the entire QSR segment’s sales.
ЛЛ Within the top-52 brands, 16 burger chains account for USD 74 billion of aggregate sales.
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Top-100 US restaurant brands
The industry is characterised by a top few chains, primarily QSR and snack and beverage chains,
accounting for substantial market share. In 2015 the aggregate sales of the top-100 brands was
estimated to be around USD 232 billion. Within that, the top-10 brands account for USD 109
billion. With system-wide sales of USD 35 billion, McDonald’s is the largest brand in terms of
sales and the 100th brand, Frisch’s Big Boy, at USD 389million of sales is 1.1% of McDonald’s.
There are 50 brands with sales of around USD 1 billion and above. With around 26,500 units,
Subway has 85% more units than McDonald’s, which has around 14,350 units. The smallest chain
in terms of units is Maggiano’s Little Italy with 49 units. The average unit value (AUV) at USD 2.7
million is the highest for casual-dining restaurants. The AUV for QSRs is around USD 1.1 million.
The Cheesecake Factory has the highest AUV of USD 10.3 million while the highest AUV for a
QSR is Chick-fill-A’s USD 3.1 million. There are few convenience stores (C-store) such as 7-Eleven
and food stores within a retail establishment (In-store) like Costco that are a part of the top-100
brands.
Exhibit 5 – Break up of US restaurant industry
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Exhibit 6 – Segment-wise units and sales of the top-100 US chains
Exhibit 7 – Segment-wise average unit value in USD million of the top-100 US chains
For a detailed list of chains with sales of over USD 1 billion refer to Annexure 1 and for chains with
AUV of over USD 5 million refer to Annexure 2.
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Key differentiators of QSR, fast-casual and casual-dining chains
QSRs have always focused on speedy service and low price points while casual dining has focused
on service and quality fresh food served in a comfortable, appealing atmosphere. Busy schedules
and fast-paced lifestyles did not allow the luxury of a leisurely meal. Customers, however, still
wanted the quality of casual-dining restaurants. Fast casual created an alternative. The most
important differentiator for fast casuals over QSRs has been quality ingredients and customization.
Fast-casual players have also been quick to adapt to changing customer preferences such as
gluten-free, healthy food. The key differentiators with respect to casual-dining restaurants are the
speed of service and check size.
Source: www.fastcasual.com
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The other factors attracting customers that at least some fast-casual chains offer are non-genetically
modified food products, no artificial ingredients or preservatives and locally sourced ingredients.
Fast-casual chains are also at the forefront of using technology to manage their operations and
the ordering process to compete with QSRs on the speed of service without compromising on
the food quality and the freshness of ingredients.
Fast-casual chains have also been offering a limited alcohol menu to boost sales. They tend to
offer craft beer, wine on tap and quirky cocktails. This has resulted in fast-casual chains taking a
share from casual-dining chains.
To compete with fast-casual chains, casual-dining chains are now either adopting features such
as pay ahead or developing fast-casual versions of their brands or are acquiring fast-casual
concepts to drive sales. Fast casuals have better unit economics, rapid growth and high return
on investment. Since the size is smaller, the capital expenditure and rent are lower while the
absence of servers leads to lower labour costs (27% of sales compared to 32% in case of casual-
dining chains). The main hindrance to casual-dining chains acquiring fast-casual chains has been
valuation as the forward multiples for fast casuals are 25-30% higher than for casual-dining chains.
QSRs are also taking note and are incorporating features that made fast casuals a success into
their operations. Burger chain Wendy’s, for instance, spent over USD 150 million in the past three
years on remodeling stores in an effort to appeal to more mature customers. Even the chain that
epitomized standardization, McDonald’s, has launched ’Create Your Taste’ offering customized
burgers.
According to Bloomberg, fast-casual brands increased their collective annual sales by 12% in
2014, compared to 3.6% and 4.2% for casual dining and QSRs, respectively. Four of the five
fastest growing brands in 2015 were fast-casual chains (Growth rate for Piology was 230%, for
PDQ was 119%, BurgerFi was 111% and The Habit Burger Grill was 46&). Even a mature brand
such as Chipotle Mexican Grill grew by 28% over the same period.
As more brands enter the segment, the stars of the fast-causal segment will have to modify their
model to continue their impressive growth by incorporating new technologies, expanding their
menu and stepping up their customer service. Pieology Pizzeria, for example, offers unlimited
topping on its pizzas for a set price while PDQ (chicken finger chain) touts the absence of freezers
and microwaves at it stores. Others are focusing on technology, such as mobile ordering and
pay-ahead options with fully customizable orders, and are offering delivery. Some players are
even delivering food to the table instead of pick-up at the counter. Table service improves guest
experience by enabling customers to wait at their table for their food as well as provide the
restaurant staff an additional touch point with the customer to serve needs better.
Please refer Annexure 3 for a note on six innovative fast-casual brands that are trying to distinguish
themselves from the pack.
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Indikitch – Indian fast-casual restaurant
Asia Pacific
The restaurant industry in the Asia-Pacific region is estimated to be USD 1.1 trillion in annual sales
(2014) or 40% of global restaurant industry. The industry is expected to be USD 1.5 trillion by 2019
growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8%. The industry is fragmented with
standalone restaurants accounting for 81% of the market share. The franchisees of US restaurant
chains have significant presence in the region. In the region, 98 companies are listed with an
aggregate market capitalisation of USD 56 billion. Of these 8 companies with an aggregate
market capitalisation of USD 10 billion are franchisees of US restaurant chains. Restaurant chains
in Japan offering sushi, donburi and other Japanese dishes account for significant share of
the organised market in the region followed by the restaurant chains in China – 55 Japanese
restaurant chains have an aggregate market capitalisation of USD 27 billion and 20 Chinese
restaurant chains have an aggregate market capitalisation of USD 7 billion.
With annual sales of over USD 1.8 billion, South Korean quick service restaurant chain Paris
Baguette is the largest restaurant brand in the region followed by Chinese quick restaurant chain
Dicos (USD 1.5 billion) and Japanese quick restaurant chain Sukiya (USD 1.5 billion). Philippines
based chain Jollibee, which has presence in US, Middle East and South East Asia is the largest
restaurant company in the region by market capitalisation. Japanese convenience store chains
(C-stores) 7-Eleven, Lawson and FamilyMart that offer ready to eat food and beverage are the
largest food services brands (other than restaurant) in the world.
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Exhibit 8 – Top 5 largest companies in the Asia Pacific region by market capitalisation
Domino’s Pizza
11 Domino’s (Franchisee) 4,163 588 106 54
Enterprises (Australia)
McDonald’s Holding Co
14 McDonald’s (Franchisee) 3,346 1,566 (146) (287)
(Japan)
26 Zensho Holdings (Japan) Sukiya, Nakau, Hamazushi 1.941 1,941 248 (43)
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016); financials for latest fiscal; global ranking by market capitalization
Western Europe
The restaurant industry in the Western Europe region is estimated to be USD 540 billion in
annual sales (2014) or 20% of global restaurant industry. The industry is expected to be USD 610
billion by 2019 growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3%. The industry is
fragmented with standalone restaurants accounting for 80% of the market share. Apart from the
franchisees of US restaurant chains brewing companies and pub companies in UK are the largest
restaurant companies in the region; however, given the nature of the pub industry in the UK,
these companies operate through multiple brands and only two brands have sales of over USD
1 billion.
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The UK Pub Industry
Tenanted pubs mark the UK pub industry with ’beer tie-ups’ as opposed to the franchise
model.
Ownership types –
ЛЛ BrewCo (19%) – Owned by breweries, the key players are Greene King (2,200 pubs),
Marston’s 2,200 pubs) and Heineken UK–Star Pubs & Bar (1,250 pubs)
ЛЛ PubCo (40%) – Are owned by pub companies that do not have their own breweries and
have to procure beer from others. The key players are Enterprise Inn (5,500 pubs),
Punch Taverns (4,000 pubs), Mitchells & Butlers (1,500 pubs) and JD Wetherspoon
(900 pubs)
ЛЛ Free houses (41%) – Are owned by independent licensees.
Operating Structure –
ЛЛ Managed houses (16%) – Pubs owned by BrewCo or PubCo and managed by them.
They are usually larger in size than the tenanted houses and free houses and have
greater emphasis on food. Marston’s, Mitchells & Butlers and JD Wetherspoon
have predominantly managed houses.
ЛЛ Tenanted houses (43%) – Pubs owned by BrewCo or PubCo and leased to a licensee who
pays the rent and runs the premises as their own businesses. Under the beer tie-
up arrangement, tenants pay ‘dry rent’ to the pub companies and are contractually
obliged to buy drinks from the pub companies at a rate above the wholesale
price (‘wet rent’). Tenancies are short-term (1-3 years), rolling and un-assignable
agreements, whereas leased pubs are longer term agreements (10 years or
more) that can be sold to another party. Enterprise Inn and Punch Taverns have
predominantly tenanted houses.
ЛЛ Free houses (41%) – Pubs owned and managed by independent licensees.
ЛЛ Franchisees – Not very common, have started only recently.
The other dominant formats are QSRs, the snack and beverage segment, convenience stores
and in-stores. With annual food sales of over USD 1.5 billion, the Ikea (in-store) is the third largest
brand by sales after the pub brand J D Wetherspoon (USD 2.1 billion) and café brand Costa
Coffee (USD 1.7 billion).
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Exhibit 9 – Top 5 largest companies in the Western Europe region by market capitalisation
Latin America
The restaurant industry in the Latin America region is estimated to be USD 300 billion in annual
sales (2014) or 11% of global restaurant industry. The industry is expected to be USD 540 billion by
2019 growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.4%. The industry is fragmented
with standalone restaurants accounting for 86% of the market share. The franchisees of the US
restaurant chains are the largest companies in the region.
Exhibit 10 – Top 2 largest companies in the Latin America region by market capitalisation
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Exhibit 11 – Segment-wise units and the top non-US chains with sales of over USD 1 billion
For a detailed list of non-US chains with sales of over USD 1 billion refer to Annexure 4.
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Listed Landscape
According to Bloomberg data, there are around 200 food services companies (both restaurants
and non-restaurant food services companies) listed globally with an aggregate market
capitalisation of USD 480 billion. In terms of the number of companies, the Asia Pacific region
accounts for half the listed companies but the companies in the US-Canada region account for
over 70% of the market capitalisation (MCap). Many of the companies in the other regions are the
franchises of the US restaurants.
There are 55 companies with market capitalisation of USD 1 billion or more. Of these, 43 are
restaurant companies while the other 12 are non-restaurant food services companies such as
contract food services, convenience stores and travel food companies. US-Canada companies
and their franchisees outside the region account for about 70% in terms of number and 90%
in terms of aggregate market capitalisation of the 43 restaurant companies. While the non-
restaurant food services category is dominated by Western Europe, which accounts for 7 of the
12 companies in the space and 70% in terms of aggregate market capitalisation.
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Exhibit 13 – Region-wise break-up of listed restaurant companies with market capitalization
(MCap) of over USD 1 billion
Exhibit 14 – Region-wise break-up of listed non-restaurant food services companies with MCap
of over USD 1 billion
MCap
Region Companies (#)
(USD Bn)
Western Europe 7 62
Asia Pacific 2 13
US-Canada 2 10
Middle East-Africa 1 3
Total 12 88
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
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Valuation
The valuation of majority of the restaurant companies with market capitalisation of over USD 1
billion ranges from 9-14 times enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and
amortisation (EV/EBITDA) on a trailing twelve-month basis with the median being 13.2 times.
On the price to earnings matrix, it ranges from 17-27 times on a trailing twelve-month basis
with the median being 26 times. The global companies such as Domino’s, Starbucks, Chipotle,
Restaurant Brands (Burger King) and Dunkin’ Brands that have demonstrated high growth and
better returns trade at 17-19 times EV/EBITDA while the Asian counterparts such as Jollibee
Foods and Jubilant FoodWorks (Domino’s India) that have demonstrated high growth trade at
26-27 times EV/EBITDA.
40x
35x
Legend - Company PE, EV / EBITDA
30x
10x
5x
10x 20x 30x 40x 50x 60x 70x 80x
PE
Note: McDonald’s Holding (Japan), Zenso Holding (Japan) and Shake Shack (US) are not considered as they have negative PE
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
Refer to Annexure 5 for the detailed list of food services companies (both restaurant and non-
restaurant) having market capitalisation of more than USD 1 billion.
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S&P Super Composite Restaurants Index
The S&P Super Composite Restaurants index is a capitalisation-weighted index consisting of the
top-25 restaurant companies listed in the US. In 2015 (calendar year [CY]), the index climbed by
18% outpacing S&P 500’s 1% decline. This is despite Chipotle’s share price crashing by almost
40% in November due to an E. coli scare. The strongest performers included heavy weights
Starbucks (up 46%) and McDonald’s (up 26%). The EV/trailing 12 months EBITDA of 15 times
for the index is above the 10-year average of 11 times. At 22 times, the 2016 earnings per share
(EPS) estimates are also above the 10-year average of 17 times earnings per share.
Exhibit 16 – Normalized chart of the S&P Supercomposite Restaurants index with respect to
the S&P 500 index
Source: Bloomberg (Period Jan 01, 2015 to May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
Typically, chains with a higher percentage of franchised stores in the portfolio command higher
valuation multiples versus chains with a higher percentage of company-operated stores as the
cash flow and EPS are predictable. Franchising also reduces operating costs and the company
can focus more on branding, menu and growth rather than manage day-to-day activities. There
are other criteria like same-store sales growth, unit growth, operating margin and return on
capital that are important valuation parameters.
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Two most important metrics to evaluate a restaurant
Investors and analysts to determine the performance of restaurant companies intensively monitor
same-store sales growth. While same-store growth is important, it is necessary to keep in mind
that it increases revenue in short term. For longer-term growth, increase in net stores is more
critical, which is beneficial in case of excess return on capital over the cost of capital.
ЛЛ Return on capital – Good management teams allocate capital effectively and increase
shareholder value over time with smart investments. This is accomplishment of a higher
rate of return on investment than its cost of capital (Chipotle’s cost of capital is 8.45% while
its return on capital is 25.6%)
ЛЛ Restaurant-level operating margin – Underlying the return on capital is the restaurant level
operating margin (27.5% for Chipotle).
Starbucks, which also has high operating margin and return on capital, allows its stores to
cannibalise its stores in a cluster to increase its market share in the cluster. For example, of its 283
stores in New York City, around 200 stores are in Manhattan alone with some stores across the
road.
Note: The value was not disclosed for around 40% of the deals across the years. In CY14, the Burger King - Tim Horton merger deal
was for over USD 12 billion.
Source: Bloomberg, Avendus analysis
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Exhibit 18 – Geographical break-up of CY15 deals
26
Emerging trends in mergers and acquisitions/private equity in
the US
The recent deals indicate two emerging trends (a) investment in start-up restaurant chains and
(b) investment in franchisee operations
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Exhibit 21 – Deals in smaller restaurant concepts in 2015
CircleUp Growth/Kensington
2015 Tava Indian Kitchen 3
Capital
Source: www.nrn.com
For the list of deals in smaller concepts in previous years, please refer Annexure 6
This is also due to the strong IPO market that PEs are motivated to invest in these emerging
companies. Companies can go public at an earlier stage in their life cycles than they have been
able to before. Previously, companies could not go public until they had reached annual cash
flow of USD 40-50 million. Now, they can with less than USD 15 million. In 2012, Leonard Green
and Partners invested in Shake Shack, a burger chain in New York with a few units but a big
reputation. In less than three years, Shake Shack went public, got a huge valuation and set the
stage for a valuable exit. This trend has forced investors to focus on smaller companies.
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Investment in franchisee operations
PEs are also investing in large franchisee groups as it is still a path for making good returns.
In addition, retirements and an aging franchisee base is driving a lot of consolidation as are
refranchising efforts on the part of companies like McDonald’s and TGI Friday’s.
Franchisees do not control the brand, are not as profitable as they have high capital costs and pay
a certain percentage of revenue to the franchisor. For all these reasons, PE avoided franchisees
but that has changed in recent years as investors have discovered the benefits of buying these
companies. What franchisees lack in absolute value, they make up for in cash generation as they
operate plenty of restaurants. This cash can be distributed in the form of dividend or management
fee.
In recent years, they have also demonstrated an ability to grow at rates that rival many brands.
Large-scale franchisees have been able to aggressively acquire locations funded with readily
available low-cost debt. PEs look for these kind of growth rates.
PEs are expanding their search for franchisee acquisitions targeting franchisees of smaller,
lesser-known brands as long as those operators fit their criteria. Recently, Sun Capital invested
in CCW LLC, a franchisee of Hut Hut Mangolian Grill (has a 55-unit chain, 21 of those with CCW
LLC). Sun Capital was interested in CCW’s management team and the business that it created,
while seeing huge expansion potential. Sun Capital wants to explore franchising options with the
management team in other fast-casual concepts.
Group Revenue
Fund Companies /Brands
(USD Mn)
Source: www.nrn.com
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PE-owned restaurant companies
As a result of robust mergers and acquisitions, PEs have continued to cement their place among
the largest domestic food services companies.
Bain Capital, with their investment in Bloomin’ Brands, and Roark Capital, with their investment in
Arby’s, Carl’s Jr and other brands, are ahead of Yum Brands in US revenue. Roark Capital moved
from rank 20 in 2014 to rank 9 in terms of accounting revenue owing to the acquisition of CKE
Inc. (Carl’s Jr and Hardee’s) and Miller’s Ale House Inc. (Miller’s Ale House). Sentinel Capital post
its acquisition of TGI Friday’s and Checkers Drive-In restaurant moved to rank 48 in 2015 from
rank around 200 in 2014.
Exhibit 23 –Ranking of PEs as per US food and beverage service revenue (firms with revenue of
more than USD 1 billion)
Golden Gate
12 California Pizza Kitchen, CPK ASAP, Red Lobster 2.9
Capital
P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc. (PF Chang's China Bistro, Pei
Centerbridge Wei Asian Diner, True Food Kitchen), Craftworks Restaurants &
22 1.7
Partners LP Breweries Inc. (Gordon Biersch Brewery Restaurant, Big River
Grille, A1A Aleworks, Bluewater Grille, Seven Bridges)
Note – The ranking is as per revenue, which includes only the franchise fee and not the entire franchisee revenue.
Source: www.nrn.com
Refer to Annexure 7 for the ranking of food and beverage services companies by revenue.
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The classification of food services space in India
The restaurant segment is estimated to be USD 48 billion in 2014. The unorganised sector, which
lacks standardisation in terms of menu, operations and formats, accounts for around 70% of the
market. The organised segment comprises stand-alone as well as chain outlets with the former
accounting for around 80% of the organised market.
Source: NRAI
Casual dining:
These are sit-down restaurants offering single or multiple cuisines with pricing ranging from
affordable to premium. This is the largest portion of the organised segment, accounting for USD
7 billion. Independent restaurants account for nearly 89% of the sub-segment. Some of the chain
brands are Barbeque Nation, Mainland China, Pizza Hut, and Moti Mahal.
QSRs:
This segment accounts for USD 2.3 billion. Restaurant chains constitute around 50% of the
organised QSR segment, the highest amongst all the organised segments due to standardisation
and scalability on account of the pricing. International chains such as Domino’s, Subway,
McDonalds, Pizza Hut and KFC operating in this segment are the largest food services brands in
India.
Cafés:
These are tea/coffee-centric casual places with a limited menu and affordable to premium pricing
with beverage sale comprising 60-65% of sales. The segment size is around USD 1.1 billion with
around 26% share of restaurant chains. Café Coffee Day is the largest among the chains and is
also the largest Indian food services brand. The other chain operators are Barista, Starbucks,
Costa Coffee and Dunkin’s Donuts.
32
Pub bar café lounge (PBCL):
This is a service format with strong focus on alcohol and the experience offered to customers.
The USD 1.7 billion segment is dominated by city-specific standalone concepts that account
for around 94% of the market. The key players are Social, TGI Friday, Monkey Bar, Irish House,
Hoppipola and Beer Café.
Fine dining:
Comprises speciality restaurants (other than 5-star hotels) with strong focus on quality ingredients,
presentation and immaculate service. The pricing is premium to luxury. The size of this segment
is around USD 407 million. The key players include Indigo, Olive and Masala Library.
Frozen desserts:
Outlets with a limited menu with focus on ice-cream and frozen yogurt. Some places also have
snack and beverage options. The segment accounts for USD 401 million. Players such as Baskin
Robbins, Gelato, Ice Cream Works and Cocoberry operate in this segment. Some players are
going beyond the frozen desserts with donuts (Mad Over Donuts) and waffles/pancakes (Waffle
House).
Many players in this segment are going a step ahead of the ’happy hour’/’themed outlets’ to
attract the crowd beyond the weekend/evening footfall–
ЛЛ All-day dining: Casual dining during the day and pub/lounge in the evening. Some of
these offer fixed-menu lunch to attract the office crowd in the afternoon. Players include
Social, Irish House and Hoppipola.
ЛЛ Pubs with micro-brewery: Pubs with a micro-brewery serving their own craft beer–Barking
Deer, White Owl, Toit Brewpub and 7 Barrel Brewpub. Some of these also provide their
craft beer to other pubs.
ЛЛ Café model: Predominantly, beer-serving pubs themed like a café with bright light, light
music and limited food. Some of these places also keep books and board games for
customers. The largest in this space in terms of number of outlets is Beer Café, others
include Pint Room and Doolally Taproom.
ЛЛ Dynamic pricing: Players use software to change the pricing dynamically depending on
the supply-demand with prices low during the early hours and picking up as the crowd
picks-up. Outlets include The Bar Stock Exchange and Café Dalal Street.
Apart from these, there are three other food and beverage services concepts –
33
only a limited number of companies are allowed to operate restaurant outlets at airports. These
companies usually take franchises of restaurant brands and operate them at the airports. One
of the key players is Travel Food Services, which manages franchised as well as its own brand
of restaurants at airports. IRCTC, meanwhile, manages canteens and cafeterias at many railway
stations in India.
Managed Services
These companies manage food and beverage served at cafeterias of offices, hospitals, and other
commercial places. Global players Compass Group and Sodexo are active in this space in India.
Refer to Annexure 8 for the key brands in each segment and Annexure 9 for the key restaurant
and other food and beverage companies operating in India.
Exhibit 25 – Break-up of the chain and standalone restaurant market in India (USD Mn)
7,074
89%
2,247
53%
1,705
94% 1,126
74% 401
407
63%
77%
Source: NRAI
34
New concepts emerging in India
Internet-first restaurants
These restaurants are delivery only and use technology to serve customers.
The pricing is typically around INR 200-250 for a meal. The menu primarily consists of a full meal
but may have soup, dessert and beverage options.
The primary target segment is office goers and bachelors with operators targeting to replace
home food/tiffin or canteen food.
Primarily, the companies operate under two models –
ЛЛ Central Kitchen - Under this model, there is a central kitchen and the menu (which typically
varies daily) is curated in-house. Since the menu is curated in-house, mixed cuisines as
well as menu items like soup, salad, mains and desserts can be managed. Moreover, since
the food is cooked in a central kitchen by professional chefs, the quality of food can be
controlled. Players include FreshMenu, Yumist and Inner Chef.
ЛЛ Home chef - The food is prepared by home chefs or trained chefs at their respective
homes. The operator aggregates the menu and provides pick-up and delivery service. The
operator also provides some training in case of home chefs. The chef and the operator
curate the menu jointly. Since the food is prepared at a chef’s home, maintaining quality
can be a challenge. Players include TinyOwl and Bite Club.
Some of the Indian QSR operators are adapting to this model with the use of technology and
focus on delivery. These operators have central kitchens that prepare the food and distribute it
to the outlets. The outlets act as spokes for local delivery. The key differentiation from the typical
QSR operator is the use of technology. The physical presence gives the brand better visibility.
The key Indian brand with omnichannel presence is Fasoos.
Aggregators
These are technology platforms that aggregate restaurants and provide delivery to customers. The
platforms aggregate a variety of restaurants and, hence, provide multiple options for customers
to choose a restaurant from. For restaurants, it is additional customer acquisition, especially for
those that do not have their own delivery option. The aggregators can also work with restaurant
operators to curate combos that provide complete meals to customers at a reasonable price. The
delivery is done by the aggregator, the restaurant or by hyper local delivery firms. Players include
Swiggy, FoodPanda and Zomato.
Despite being in the news due to lay-offs and scaling back of operations, the food-tech companies
(Internet-first restaurants, aggregators) have attracted investor interest. This space will grow as
these companies are complementing (eating in) to the largely eating-out model of traditional
restaurants and thereby expanding the market itself. They are expanding the market for organised
players by providing alternatives to tiffin/canteen services (which are largely unorganised) as well
as to home-cooked food.
35
Recently, food-tech companies like Yumist, Bite Club and InnerChef have started serving
institutional customers like Google, Citibank, Snapdeal, Yatra and Oyo Rooms in an effort to build
scale and improve cash flows. Operating margin, excluding the cost of acquisition, is higher in
case of institutional sales but the cost of acquisition per customer is low to negligible. Demand
is also more predictable in case of institutional customers and the logistics cost per meal also
works out to be lower. While some of the food-tech companies are venturing into institutional
sales, TinyOwl is planning to provide a technology platform to internet-first restaurants.
Apart from internet-first restaurants and aggregators, there are other associated models in the
food-tech space.
ЛЛ Table booking/reservation: These websites and apps help people book a table at their
favourite restaurant. Some of these players offer discount while some offer a curated fixed-
priced set menu. Players include DineOut, GroupTable and TableGrabber.
ЛЛ Restaurant Review: These websites provide restaurant listings and facilitate user-generated
reviews. Zomato is the largest player followed by Burrp.
ЛЛ Hyper-local delivery: These companies provide last-mile delivery options for aggregators
and/or restaurants. Players include Groffers, Roadrunnr and PepperTap.
Traditionally the Indian Railways Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) has been
operating canteens and food plazas on railway stations and providing meal service
on select trains like Rajdhani and Shatabdi. Recently it has launched a ‘station-based
e-catering’ service allowing passengers to order meals as per their choice, which will
be delivered in the train from popular private caterers. The passenger needs to provide
the ticket PNR and make payment upfront. In case of waitlisted ticket which doesn’t get
confirmed, the order is cancelled automatically and money is refunded. Currently the
passenger can order the food using website, by calling or sending SMS.
Besides food from IRCTC-managed food plazas and fast food units, reputed food chains
like McDonald’s, KFC, Dominos, Haldiram, Bikanerwala, Nirualas, SagarRatna, Pizza Hut,
which have a wide variety in menu have entered into a tie-up with IRCTC to serve the
passengers passing through these stations.
Recently it has also started 10% cash back program when using payment gateway of
HDFC or Paytm.
36
New dining concepts emerging in India
Recipe box:
A menu is posted on the website every few days and the customers can choose the dish that they
want and place an online order. The company sends the ingredients, weighed out according to
the recipe along with the step-by-step instructions. The pricing is competitive and cheaper than
ordering in. If the customer were to go and purchase ingredients, he or she may need to buy
larger minimum quantities and waste the unused portion if it is perishable. Players include iChef
and Cookfresh
Farm lunches:
Diners are interested in seeing where their food actually comes from. This has given rise to farm
lunches where one can take a tour of the farm and understand the nuances of farming (organic
or otherwise). This is followed by a meal cooked using these ingredients and served in a rustic
environment. The Sahakari Spice Farm, Goa; Saswad Farm Lunch, Pune.
Food walks:
A two-to three-hour guided walk through a quintessential part of town where one gets to sample a
variety of dishes popular in that particular area. Tushky, Magic Tours (Bangalore); Finely Chopped
(Mumbai).
Pop-up restaurants:
The concept of pop-up restaurants is still evolving in the country. The concept is popular in the
west, especially in London and New York. The idea is to have a make-shift fine dining experience
servicing gourmet food for a specific period of time in a city. A pop-up restaurant is typically
more casual than its parent restaurant and is priced more competitively.
37
Deals in the food and beverage services space in India
As there are not many players that have reached scale in the Indian market, the deals in this space
have been limited both in terms of number and size. On average, there have been 10-12 deals in
this space annually. In CY15, however, the deal count increased to 23 along with large deals like
the PE funds raised by Faasos, acquisition of Indigo by India Value Fund and acquisition of the
franchisee business of Pizza Hut.
On the public market front, Speciality Restaurants (Mainland China, Hopipolla), Jubilant
FoodWorks (Domino’s, Dunkin’ Donuts) and Coffee Day Enterprise (Café Coffee Day) have gone
public. While Hardcastle Restaurants (McDonald’s) merged with its listed group company Westlife
Development to go public.
The number as well as the size of deals should increase as the Indian industry moves to organised
from unorganised and as the Indian players scale up beyond one or two locations. Recently,
PEs have shown interest in buy-out deals apart from fund-raising deals.The concept of pop-up
restaurants is still evolving in the country. The concept is popular in the west, especially in London
and New York. The idea is to have a make-shift fine dining experience servicing gourmet food
for a specific period of time in a city. A pop-up restaurant is typically more casual than its parent
restaurant and is priced more competitively.
38
Exhibit 27 – Key deals in CY15 in the Indian restaurant industry
Deal Value
Target Format Brands Investors(s)
(USD Mn)
Degustibus
Casual Dining Indigo, Indigo Deli Indium Fund V 30.0
Hospitality
Barbeque-Nation
Casual Dining Barbeque Nation CX Capital 16.7
Hospitality
*Franchisee operations of Pizza Hut and KFC outlets from Dodsal Enterprise, Yum Restaurants India and others
Source: VCCEdge
Deal Value
Target Format Brands Investors(s)
(USD Mn)
Internet first
Food Vista India FreshMenu Lightspeed Venture 17.0
restaurant
Internet-first
HolaChef
restaurant/ Home HolaChef Kalaari Capital & HNIs 3.1
Hospitality
Chef
Internet first
YuMistFoodtech Yumist Unilazer 2.0
restaurant
Source: VCCEdge
39
Exhibit 29 – Valuation of listed Indian restaurant companies
EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA PE
Mkt Cap Return on
Company
(INR Mn) Capital
TTM(#) FY16E TTM(#) FY16E TTM(#) FY16E
Jubilant
63,512 3.0x 2.5x 24.3x 20.8x 57.2x 51.0x 18.6%
FoodWorks
Westlife
33,629 4.3x 4.0x 169.2x 75.1x NM NM -3.8%
Development
Speciality
3,921 1.0x NA 10.4x NA 41.5x NA 3.1%
Restaurants
Coffee Day
46,412 3.3x 17.6x 21.4x 14 NM NM 2.4%
Enterprise1
Note: (1) Coffee Day Enterprise is the holding company for Café Coffee Day, which is the largest business while the other busi-
nesses are not related to the food business; NM - Not Meaningful; NA - Not Available.
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
Retail space
One of the key success factors for a restaurant is location. Rentals have been increasing over the
past few years, impacting profitability. Also, as there is a dearth of prime locations, the rentals at
such locations are higher than average and can negate the benefits of high sales.
40
Supply chain
The supply chain is fragmented and marked by the presence of multiple intermediaries. The
lack of infrastructure and cold-storage facilities and non-integration of the food-value chain
result in about 30% of food being wasted across the chain. All these factors increase the cost of
ingredients, which, in turn, reduces the profitability of operations.
Licensing
A restaurant operator needs to take 14-15 licenses from various government agencies to start
operations. Moreover, as there is no single window for application, the restaurant operator needs
to approach various departments individually, which is a time-consuming and an unpredictable
process. Getting the liquor license is an even bigger challenge and the age limit in some places
is as high as 25 years.
Manpower
The restaurant industry is labour intensive but the availability of trained chefs, managerial staff
and other staff is low. Given the paucity of skilled manpower and the industry’s high attrition, the
cost of labour is high. Also, due to the labour laws, hiring temporary manpower to address the
peak requirements (say on weekends) is difficult and the restaurants need to hire staff taking into
account peak traffic, which results in overstaffing for non-peak days.
41
Trends
Breakfast
Breakfast is fast becoming an important offering. Restaurant chains across the format spectrum
are not only focusing on breakfast but also, in many cases, making it available throughout the
day.
Fast Casuals
The preference for fast casuals such as Chipotle, Panera Bread and a host of other fast-casual
chains offering burgers to pizzas and Mexican to Chinese is increasing. This is because they
provide faster service, fresher ingredients, new flavours and customization
Local sourcing
Customers, specifically millennials, are increasingly demanding locally sourced ingredients.
Restaurants are using their gardens, house-made or farm-branded ingredients and artisan items
to satisfy the local-sourcing demands. From ice-cream to cheese, pickle to bacon, lemonade to
beer, restaurants are producing their own signature menu items from scratch.
Sustainable/ethical source
Customers want to know if the restaurants are procuring the ingredients from a sustainable/
ethical source. Chipotle and Panera Bread are leading the movement by promising customers of
responsibly sourced meat, non-genetically modified products and removing artificial ingredients
from their menu or recipes. Even big chains like McDonald’s and AppleBee’s have made
commitments to use only cage-free eggs.
Going global
Ethnic cuisine continues to make inroads into mainstream menus. Micro trending in this category
is fusion cuisine, as well as authentic and regional, underscoring the breadth and depth of
flavours being explored. Also, ethnic ingredients, including cheeses, flour and condiments, are
increasingly finding their way into non-ethnic dishes. Specific dishes such as ramen, ethnic street
food and kids’ entrées are also gaining momentum. After Mexican and Chinese, the Middle-
Eastern concepts are picking up as they are also perceived to be healthy.
Mini- gourmet
Children’s menus are drawing more attention from chefs and restaurant operators. Gourmet kids’
dishes adopted from adult menu items with more adventurous flavour profiles than traditional
children’s options are being offered. Growing in parallel are healthy versions featuring whole
grains, vegetables, oven-baked items and entrée salads.
43
Small portions
Limited service chains have started offering small portions like mini burgers/hot dogs, little
sandwiches and shakes that are smaller than small. They are intended to entice people who are
searching for a small treat between meals, a cheap bite or a little something extra at mealtime.
Reduced portion sizes can also be a way to attract deal-seekers because smaller sizes usually
mean lesser prices. That’s an area some fast-food chains are struggling with as the rising cost of
ingredients, such as beef and dairy, have made it tough to keep offering traditional dollar menus.
Calories/salt listing
In a bid to differentiate healthy food concepts, Sweetgreen and Eatsa are listing calorie and
sometimes nutrition content on their menu. Some city councils like New York City are mandating
restaurant to list calorie and/or salt content above a certain limit.
44
Consumer Behaviour
Food is becoming a vehicle for self-expression, a point of pride, a political statement, a declaration
of identity and much more. Health seems to be on the consumer’s mind, too, although the
definition of health and the perception of what is good varies and often in contradictory ways.
Restaurants are responding by finding new ways to engage with their customers, not just with
new menu items, but also with conversation about how their food is sourced, prepared and
served.
Food as self-expression
Nowadays, people post a picture of food or a drink from a restaurant via social media. This is not
just for getting likes but also help them identify who they are based on their eating habits. The
new ingredient that they become aware of (through food shows, restaurants) becomes a point of
social conversation. Restaurants are introducing offbeat items to get people talking. Since food
is fashionable, some diners want to be trend leaders by being the first to try new foods.
45
“
“
The build-your-own segment, within the fast-casual segment, has been the fastest-
growing segment in the industry
46
Five ways restaurants can attract today’s customers
Being transparent
Many consumers are increasingly interested in knowing where ingredients come from
and howtheir food is made. The restaurant should be ready to answer their questions
honestly and to explain the decisions. If many customers object to some of the practices,
then the restaurants should explore ways to adjust them so that they better align with
their customers’ values. To gauge the potential returns, restaurants can look at the success
story of Chipotle’s “Food with Integrity” mantra.
Being fun
Restaurants should try offering unusual items as specials to help express their brand.
Mooyah Burgers, Fries and Shakes did just that with its Jelly Donut Milkshake. The item
drew attention to the chain’s other shakes, and also boosted sales. Special items will help
restaurants get noticed and, possibly, garner positive attention on social media. With
more and more customers, especially millennials, posting pictures of food and drinks
from restaurants on social media, that kind of attention can be valuable.
Being engaged
Restaurants should use social media, loyalty programmes or other methods to receive
and respond to customer feedback. Restaurants can ask customers for menu suggestions
to help give them a sense of ownership in the brand. If the customers are asking for
gluten-free, vegan or other niche products, restaurants should consider responding to
them: if one person in a party of eight wants a gluten-free item and the restaurant can’t
provide it, then all eight of those people will take their business elsewhere.
Offering customisation
Many consumers today feel better about their food if they can customise it. The fast-
casual model of assembling food in front of customers seems ideal, but regardless of the
service style, it is important that customers know that the restaurant will happily add, take
away from or otherwise modify their order in any way they like. Restaurants might even
consider making customisation part of the ordering process.
47
Breakfast: Evolving as an all-day affair
Breakfast is becoming an important offering as customers are craving breakfast food morning,
noon and night. Sales of breakfast items like coffee, pancakes and doughnuts are outpacing
lunch and dinner items. This has prompted chains like McDonald’s, Taco Bell, Dunkin’ Donuts
and buffet chain Golden Corral to offer all-day breakfast joining Denny’s, IHOP, Jack in the Box
and Sonic Drive-In. Chains like IHOP are coining and using term like ‘Breakfastarians’ in their ads.
National chains like McDonald’s, Starbucks and Panera Bread are highlighting the strength of
breakfast sales in their quarterly reports as breakfast is more profitable for some chains. The
focus on breakfast helped McDonald’s to achieve positive same-store sales growth after eight
quarters of decline and same-store sales growth for the quarter increased by more than 5% after
14 quarters.
Listed below are some of the trends in breakfast
Convenient breakfast
Convenience store operators are capitalising on breakfast’s popularity to transform people
stopping for fuel on the way to work into breakfast patrons. According to Mintel’s 2015 report,
Convenience Store Foodservice, 32% of those surveyed had purchased a made-to-order
breakfast sandwich at a convenience store.
Customisation
Omelettes, the original customisable food, have landed their own place on build-your-menus with
IHOP, Perkins and Friendly’s all offering build-your-own omelette options. Independent operators,
however, are going the extra mile, offering the lengthiest list of ingredients. Customisation also
leads to better profitability for restaurants as the feeling of control comes with certain satisfaction
and makes consumers less price sensitive.
48
Daypart-blurring proteins–
As millennials become the most important consumer group, the daypart boundaries are getting
eroded due to their habit of eating whatever/whenever. Roasted turkey and chicken have migrated
to the morning menu and egg-topped burgers, salads and vegetable dishes have proliferated.
Consumers are also showing more interest in high-protein items like eggs, meats and yogurts
during their breakfast meal.
49
Farmers’ Fridge
The kiosk is an oversized vending machine loaded mostly with salads
made fresh that morning and stored in mason jars. It has 30 locations
in the Chicago area with plans for up to 100 and designs on taking
the concept national.
Whole-food concepts
Sweetgreen, Chop’t, Tender Greens, Lyfe Kitchen and Greek food
fast-casual concept Cava Mezze Grill. All these chains aim to develop
a nationwide chain of guilt-free limited service restaurants serving
low-calorie items made with all natural ingredients.
Eatsa
It has a bowl-based menu with a quinoa base. The
customer can give a customised order on the store’s iPads
or smartphone app. When the made-to-order bowl is
ready, the customer can retrieve the meal from small glass
compartments.
50
E. Coli scares Chipotle consumers and investors
For years, Chipotle had been promoting ‘food with integrity’–fresh, genetically modified organism
(GMO)-free ingredients–and was considered the gold standard for quality. Its reputation was
tarnished as the E. Coli outbreak was linked to some of its restaurants. This resulted in negative
same store sales growth for the first time since going public in January 2006. In December 2015,
same store sales declined by 30%. Investors dumped the stock, which tumbled by around 40%
post outbreak.
10.4
10
9.3
6.2
5.5
5
4.3
2.6
1.0
0
2013
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2015
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4
(5)
(10)
(15) 14.6
51
Soup sales: Key upselling opportunity
According to consumer surveys, more than two-fifth of consumers visit specific restaurants
because they enjoy soup. It is, however, vital for restaurant operators to emphasize uniqueness
in order to keep soup lovers coming to their outlets as soup as an offering competes with the
retail sector due to the availability of instant soup. While soup is a traditional favourite, customers
expect variety when it comes to consumption at restaurants. The following are a few strategies
that successful restaurants follow for promoting and presenting soup.
ЛЛ Trending keywords – Use trending keywords in the soup menu description, call out
special ingredients and also be sure to complement descriptions with appealing food
photography.
ЛЛ Menu callouts – Highlight soup on the menu or the menu board and feature it prominently
as a selection combo meal.
ЛЛ Seasonal Rotation – Rotate soup according to season and try to menu three-four soups,
including at least one lighter broth-based soup, a cream-based soup, a vegetable option
and one more adventurous ethnic flavour profile.
ЛЛ Staff training – Have the staff try each soup and encourage them to make their own personal
recommendations to customers, including pairing suggestions for featured entrées. Also
equip the staff with appealing easy-to-remember soup descriptions.
ЛЛ Sampling – Sample new soup varieties on a regular basis to encourage trial. Have a hostess
offer soup samples to customers who are waiting for a table.
ЛЛ Garnishing – Speciality crackers or fresh breads can elevate soup’s perceived value,
allowing restaurants to command a higher price point.
52
Chipotle has a simple menu but is so customisable that it provides customers with enough variety
to generate AUV of USD 2.4 million without breakfast. Its operational simplicity has helped the
chain get such volumes inside small stores. The chain is careful about additions to the menu
to retain the simplicity. They will add ingredients only if they feel that the additional item will
bring new customers or increase frequency among existing customers and not if it just splits the
existing customers between the existing and new items.
“
Chipotle claims a customer can order 65,000 menu combinations due to customisation.
“
Chains often increase the menu to attract new customers or to eliminate the ‘veto vote’ a
phenomenon in which a member of a party vetoes a concept based on its menu. For instance,
burger chains may add chicken sandwiches to attract people who do not eat beef or salads for
health conscious customers. Chains are, however, better off cutting from menu and specialising
in a few things so that they attract enough customers looking for quality to offset the loss due to
veto votes.
Larger menus can also increase complexities that result in slow service, which is critical in the QSR
and fast-casual concepts. McDonald’s, after years of adding to the menu, is currently researching
how to shrink its menu. Decreasing sales have forced McDonald’s to reduce the complexity of its
operations and have a simpler menu.
ЛЛ For every successful idea that works, there are hundred that fail to hit the mark.
ЛЛ Restaurants can take inspiration from what they see emerging in the broader food market
place like food trucks or an ingredient that is suddenly becoming popular. Corporate
chefs have to adapt their find so that it resonates with the brand.
ЛЛ Sales matter but if an item proves popular but ends up cannibalising other items, it may
not add much to the bottom line.
ЛЛ Operations are a factor as well–an item could be a hit with customers but if it poses
problems for the kitchen crew, its popularity may be irrelevant.
ЛЛ The testing phase can also become the tweaking phase for slight adjustment in the recipe
or product formulation that will make all the difference.
ЛЛ An item may work at some place but not at another.
53
Menu pricing strategy
Eventually, all restaurants have to increase their menu prices due to increase in ingredient costs
or salaries and other costs. The moot point to be considered at the time of increasing the price
is timing. Restaurant operators can consider the following points while changing menu prices.
ЛЛ Pairing price change with scheduled menu reprints – Restaurants need to reprint their
menu at regular intervals as the old menu gets worn out or while adding or removing
menu items or introducing seasonal items. This can be the ideal time to change prices as
the change is accompanied by other changes in the menu.
ЛЛ Raising prices around signature item(s) – Menu prices can also be changed around the
signature pricey item(s), which can act as a benchmark, in small incremental amounts. Or
while maintaining the prices of a couple of entry-level items. This strategy can help the
restaurant to create a perception that the prices have not changed.
ЛЛ Discussing with suppliers – Restaurants can try working with their suppliers to bring some
of the everyday costs down to the extent possible. Sometimes, the surge in prices of certain
items may be temporary; for example, chicken prices may increase due to unavailability
on account of bird flu. Restaurants can also discuss if there are cheaper alternate products
that could be swapped into the menu, and alter recipes accordingly, without changing the
price.
ЛЛ Lowering prices – Usually, restaurants will not lower prices but raising and lowering prices
at the same time can be a successful strategy as customers will appreciate lower prices.
While the restaurant is increasing the menu prices in general, prices of menu items that
define the concept or have strong margins can be lowered to maintain the goodwill
among the customers.
ЛЛ Raising the perceived value of an item – If the value of an item is perceived to be high by
the customers, then the incremental price rise will not have a negative effect. The creativity
of the restaurant is the key factor that can build the perception around the menu.
Before increasing prices, it is critical for a restaurant to know which menu items have high
perceived value, which are bestselling and which are not working. Shifting menu trends in the
industry mean restaurants must continually evaluate and update the menu. Restaurant operators
may believe that they know which items the customers enjoy the best and the most cost effective
way to produce these selections. Using analytical tools on the appropriate data can sometimes
reveal surprises for operators.
To understand how effective a menu item is, Swipely (a restaurant analytics and credit card
processing company) has created a formula for evaluating restaurant menu items and their
benefit to the business in terms of creating loyal repeat customers.
40 Orders
40 Retention rate
54
The results of the formula will give each menu item an index score usually between 30 and 200
ЛЛ A score of 100 is for an average menu item
ЛЛ A menu item that scores 123 is 23% more valuable to the business than an average menu
item
ЛЛ A menu item that scores 87 is 13% less valuable to the business than an average menu
item
Once the restaurant has the understanding of how the menu items perform, it can start making
better business decisions that lead to more profitable menus.
ЛЛ Training the staff–Restaurants should train the staff on items that have the highest index
scores.
ЛЛ Provide profitable recommendations–Between two similar items (say, two fish choices), the
server can steer the guest towards the more valuable item.
ЛЛ Determine pricing–Instead of raising all the prices, restaurants can raise the prices for
highest-performing items slightly–customers will barely notice and still continue to order
them.
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Trends
ЛЛ Limited service restaurants (QSRs and fast casuals) are experimenting with serving alcohol,
especially beer and wine, and to some extent cocktails.
ЛЛ Beverage on tap is an evolving trend with restaurant operators, apart from serving beer on
tap, also serving wine, cocktails and even tea and coffee on tap.
ЛЛ Limited service restaurants are employing self-service drinking stations.
ЛЛ Increasingly, brew masters are aging beer in barrels to give an exotic flavour to the beer.
ЛЛ The demand for craft beer and microbreweries is on the rise at the cost of commercial
beer.
ЛЛ Restaurants are adopting beer-food pairing programmes along the lines of wine-food
pairing.
ЛЛ Fine-dining restaurants are creating multi-course vegetarian meals around their wine list.
ЛЛ Restaurants are creating savoury cocktails as well as cocktails with a bitter taste.
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Fast-casual chains: Rewriting the wine list
Offering alcohol is one of the key differentiators between fast-casual and QSR chains. When
restaurants want to emphasise that they are offering high-quality food within their casual
environment, they turn to wine to help separate their restaurants from QSR chains.
While wine competes with beer for customer attention at fast casuals, there are generally few
liquor options, if any at all. Partly, this is about speed of service: wine does not require the mixing
time of a craft cocktail; it is simply poured and served. Fast-casual chains prefer short menus that
keep customers focused on a limited set of options and the line moving. Wine by the glass suits
the high volumes at fast casuals well. In order to further increase the speed of service, fast casuals
are opting for boxed wines and kegs to pour quickly.
Fast casuals also do not have a sommelier and so the wine list has to work by itself. Overall
accessibility, with options that can suit a wide range of tastes, is an important factor in the success
of wine offering at fast casuals. Pricing is another factor. While traditional restaurants mark-up
three-four times the cost, fast casuals are sacrificing margin in favour of volume. Given the high
volumes at fast casuals, maximising revenue on each sale is less necessary, further improving the
volume of wine sales.
As fast casuals continue to expand their reach, and as diners make it more of a part of their dining
habit, there will be more innovation in the menu. The extent to which wine has already played a
successful role at these establishments without embracing the old rules is noteworthy.
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‘Evenings’ at Starbucks
Starbucks is accelerating its efforts to sell wine and craft beer at its US stores. The company
also offers small plates such as bacon wrapped dates and truffle mac ‘n’ cheese. Currently,
the offerings are available at 70 stores. The company has submitted liquor licence
applications for several hundred more locations and has plans to introduce the concept in
more than 2000 stores. The company aims to achieve USD 1 billion revenue from alcohol
sale by 2019.
Starbucks offers a very relaxed, casual atmosphere with drinks that very few places
offer. The programme is very popular among women (who account for 60% of traffic) as
Starbucks is perceived to be a safer and a more inviting option to meet friends during
evening hours than a bar. These stores are also attracting book clubs, knitting circles and
even the occasional Bible study. The menu is also drawing online daters meeting for the
first time.
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Beverages on tap
From cocktails to wine to coffee, operators are dedicating draft lines to drinks beyond the
traditional brew. Beverages on tap remain fresher for longer and offer a unique experience–bold
flavours with eye-catching presentation.
Wine
Wine drinking has traditionally been a sophisticated affair with
restaurants employing sommeliers and curating menus around wines
on offer. Increasingly, restaurants have started offering wine on tap,
especially in high-volume environments like pubs, bars and limited-
service restaurants. Wine on tap contributes to significantly reduced
serving time as it takes less time to tap a keg or pour from a machine
than it does to retrieve and uncork a bottle. Other benefits are longer
preservation times and serving wines that are costly by the bottle.
Wineries are also taking note of the trend and supplying smaller kegs (5
gallons instead of 15 gallons), which allows restaurants to stock variety.
Cocktails
Cocktails on tap, punch and barrel-aged cocktails were some of
the hottest trends in recent years. They can be prepared in advance
or mixed to order in bulk, thereby increasing the speed of service.
The easiest cocktails to do on tap are made only of alcohol such as
Negronis or Manhattans because the liquor does not go bad.
Beverages on tap
ЛЛ Raleigh, North Carolina’s newly opened Beer Garden has 366 taps in its two-story space—
more than any other place on earth.
ЛЛ TWO urban licks, Atlanta, offers 70 wine varieties on tap.
ЛЛ Tavernita in Chicago offers 10 cocktails on tap plus a white and red sangria.
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Beer Renaissance
Craft beer, food pairing and aging of beer are some of the key trends emerging in the beer
world. Edging up in consumers’ perception of luxury items, beer has entered the worlds of
white tablecloth and staff certifications, food pairings and tastings, education events and
intimate experiences. Stepping out from wine’s shadow, ales, lagers, stouts and other brews
are embracing artistry, refinement and a quality over quantity mind-set to capture consumers’
imaginations. Craft breweries and micro-breweries are hosting brewery tours to give consumers
the first-hand experience of the brewing process. Another wine tradition that is being adopted
is staff certification.
Craft beer
In the US, craft beer accounts for 11% in volume terms and around 20% in value terms. There
are a total of around 3,500 craft breweries. At many breweries, innovation and artistry combine
to push beer’s longstanding norms, experimenting with everything from ingredients to storage
methods. Consumers are embracing distinctive, esoteric styles and a willingness to pay more for
well-built beers, barrel-aged brews or limited/seasonal production offerings. As craft breweries
are taking away the share from the major brewers, acquisition increased in this space with at least
24 craft breweries being acquired in 2015 by major brewers, such as AB InBev and Heineken,
and PEs like LNK Partners and Fireman Capital Partners.
ЛЛ Sequoia Capital recently invested around USD 6 million in Cerana Beverage, which
manufactures Bira 91 craft beer.
ЛЛ Angel investors have invested in microbreweries White Owl Brewery and Giest.
Beer-food pairing
Food pairing, which was till recently associated
primarily with wine, is being curated around
beers by many restaurants. Apart from artistry
and innovation, accessibility is an important
factor in beer’s surge–while the globe’s best
wines enter the six-figure territory, the finest
beers run a fraction of that cost. Like wine,
restaurants are beginning to identify the beers
by producer, region and vintage (if applicable).
Consumers are also flocking to restaurant
events that celebrate beer, ranging from beer
dinners to brewer’s weekends. Even Michelin-
star restaurants are taking note of beer. Eleven Madison Park, a Michelin three-star restaurant,
weaves beer seamlessly into a fine dining space by offering carefully curated 180 selections from
around the globe, including some rare, unfamiliar brews, alongside cutting-edge cuisine.
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Beyond the Vine
Restaurants specialising in serving beer are providing tips for switching over from wine
to customers:
ЛЛ Instead of a Chardonnay, try a spicy white ale.
ЛЛ Go for a brown ale in place of a Malbec.
ЛЛ Instead of a Pinot Noir, taste an India Pale Ale.
ЛЛ Forgo the Riesling for a delicious wheat beer.
Aging of beer
Cocktails on tap, punch and barrel-aged cocktails were some of the hottest trends in recent
years. They can be prepared in advance or mixed to order in bulk, thereby increasing the speed
of service. The easiest cocktails to do on tap are made only of alcohol such as Negronis or
Manhattans because the liquor does not go bad.
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Since the system can be integrated with the ordering process and provides alerts, the just-in-
time ordering process can be implemented.
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Restaurant delivery disruption
Uber-ification of everything
With people’s growing desire for on-demand, personalised service, meals and food are no
exception. Meals and independent restaurant delivery services have caught the imagination of
customers and investors. Meals at home used to be conventional. Today, recipes are becoming
more adventurous with experimentation and customisation are driving the demand. Meal
delivery services do this by offering an ever-changing assortment of imaginative chef-inspired
dishes; independent restaurant delivery services do it by delivering from menus of many different
eateries.
Development in technology is driving the growth of food delivery. The analytics behind Uber
matching supply and demand are being copied and applied by restaurant delivery services.
Apps provide a friction-free environment in which customers customise, track, communicate
about and pay for orders.
Great brands are aware of trends and use that knowledge to better understand customer needs.
They succeed by pursuing their own, disruptive ideas. A brand may decide that high-touch, low-
tech service is a hallmark of its brand and delivery would detract from the customer experience
it wants to offer. If a brand decides to do delivery, it should develop and use a system that aligns
well with its values.
On demand delivery has created a new generation of companies—internet-first restaurants—that
operate out of central kitchens and provide delivery to customers. These companies have a
limited menu offering, which is rotated through the week. Also, aggregators/delivery companies
are aggregating restaurants and providing delivery services on their behalf. These are providing
a revenue boost to restaurants and are a boon especially to small chains and independent
restaurants that do not have the resources to build their online presence
The following are some of the events that are defining delivery service –
Starbucks tests delivery in New York City, Amazon launches restaurant delivery for
Prime members
Starbucks debuted Green Apron delivery by baristas at Empire State Building in New York City
for a flat fee of USD 2 with no minimum order. Amazon is making restaurant delivery service
available to its prime members (USD 99 per year subscription service) in various markets using
its shipping company’s fleet of drivers.
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Domino’s soup up vehicles
Domino’s launched a delivery car with a built-in warming oven. The company also made it easier
to order pizza for delivery on its app, Twitter, and online by using emojis.
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Customer Experience: Aggregation of all of their interactions
Customer experience is the sum of all the interactions the customer has with the company.
People are used to getting what they want, where they want it, how they want it and when they
want it, and now expect on-demand personalised service from all companies. Customer service
problems no longer remain isolated individual issues but are broadcast to all of their friends and
followers. Therefore, customer experience has become increasingly important and restaurants
can take lessons from other consumer-servicing industries.
Being entertaining
People are drawn to brands that make them feel excited. Trader Joe’s makes grocery shopping
a fun experience. The fun shirts that employees wear, the bell used to indicate the need to open
new checkout stands, hand-painted signs and cute displays contribute to the experience at
Trader Joe’s.
Being empathetic
Great customer experience is built upon a deep understanding of what customers want and
need. For instance, Virgin Atlantic’s boarding pass is designed to be folded and fit in the pocket;
the pass has all information visible and the type size is large enough to be read at a glance.
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Consumer engagement
ЛЛ Be present – Customers like to meet the owner/manager. Checking in with the customers
on the way in and out can set the tone for their experience before they sit down and solve
problems before they leave.
ЛЛ Listen – Whether through personal visits to the table, customer comment cards, loyalty
programmes or social media, the restaurant management should find out what the
customers like and want.
ЛЛ Be more social on social media – When using social media to engage with customers, the
restaurant should give it a personal voice and be social instead of using the page purely
as a marketing vehicle.
ЛЛ Get involved – Becoming a member of the industry group can be helpful. So can be a chef
or sommelier who writes related columns.
ЛЛ Go out of the way – Nothing can impress a customer more than when the restaurant goes
beyond what is required to do, for instance offering to personally deliver belongings that
the customer forgot at the restaurant.
Sidewalk seating
One of the easiest ways to offer customers the joys of an
open air dining experience is to add a sidewalk dining area.
Sidewalk seating gives lot of flexibility: during lunchtime,
diners will appreciate a causal dining experience as they watch
pedestrians or sip a cold beverage while they enjoy the shade;
at night, the restaurant can use candles or umbrella lighting to
make the ambience intimate and to create an attractive display
for onlookers.
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Rooftop dining
The view allows diners to take in the beautiful city skylines or
wide-open landscapes as they dine. The restaurant can go
the extra mile with manicured gardens and light displays that
enliven the atmosphere at night. Pergolas and awnings are also
popular features as they offer shade during the day and protect
diners from rain.
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Communal table: A welcome sign for singles and large groups
More-and-more restaurant concepts are pushing aside two-tops and setting a communal table
into their dining room floor plans. Communal tables help send two clear messages—large groups
are welcome (which helps to build loyalty and drive sales) and that it is a welcoming place where
neighbours can catch up or strangers can become friends.
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Naming the Restaurant
While a name alone will not guarantee restaurant success, it does remain the restaurant’s
unquestionable public identity: an element broadcast in conversations, internet searches and
exterior signage. In just a few easily relayed syllables, the name must capture, at least to some
extent, the menu, hospitality, design, vibe and sensibilities of the restaurant–a remarkably complex,
dynamic and challenging task. Great names are distinctive, yet easily recalled and simple to spell.
Any name requires intense research regarding the restaurant’s points of differentiation, its
marketplace positioning and, most importantly, its target customers. It is important to sit down,
reflect and have careful, diligent conversations about the restaurant’s unique traits, concepts
and tone. Once the owners understand the restaurant’s feel, position and target consumer,
prospective names that are enlightening and imaginative often materialise.
Tying the restaurant to a place can bring unique ideas to the table and it is important to look in the
backyard since that’s where the primary customer base is. Shorter names tend to resonate best
in today’s text messaging-social media environment. Shorter names also work well on business
cards, windows, print menus and exterior signage.
Once a name is shortlisted, restaurant owners should visit Google to see if other restaurants carry
the name. The availability of the domain and the potential moniker’s availability on social media
should be investigated as well. Post this, the management can do the market testing.
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Maximising opportunities for clear brand expression
From a design standpoint, the brand communication will be based on the size and format
of the available non-traditional space and may well be subject to the overall facility’s design
requirements. What the restaurant chooses to communicate will affect the overall brand equity.
As the customers are exposed to a snippet of the intended customer experience, it is critical to
select the most important messaging points tied to the brand. At a non-traditional format, there is
always a conflict between the overall space and individual food vendor. An individual brand may
want a clear brand expression for the entity as a whole while the real estate owners may avoid
this approach as it is much easier for them to follow set standards and prescribed guidelines. This
is something that the restaurant needs to pay close attention to while choosing a non-traditional
format.
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Gift cards: A margin-boosting strategy
Across all industries, businesses sold USD 124 billion of gift cards in the US in 2014. Despite
their growth, the restaurant industry is not tapping into the potential of gift cards as it does not
perceive the benefits. There are three ways gift cards can boost margins for restaurants –
a. Gift card breakage – Around 30% of gift cards are never redeemed. Although no specific
study has been undertaken for gift cards issued by restaurants, it is estimated that the
breakages should be at least 30% if not higher. This adds to the margin of the restaurant
moreover, for the remaining 70%, the income is recognised at the time of use and,
therefore, be considered an interest-free loan. The cost associated with issuing gift cards
is also low.
b. Gift cards drive larger and higher-margin purchases – In more than 70% of the cases, gift-
card holders spent more than the card’s value. Around 25% purchased an item that was
not originally planned or a more expensive version of an item.
c. Better alternative for disgruntled customers – Every restaurant has disgruntled customers
from time to time. Restaurants seek to placate them by writing down a portion of their
bill, providing complimentary desserts or, in some instances, a refund. All these have
immediate costs associated with them. If the customer is given a gift card, however, the
benefits are (a) cost is incurred at the time of redemption (b) Add 30% breakage possibility
that reduces the cost (c) possibility of increased spend (d) it can bring back a customer
who otherwise might not have revisited.
Companies usually give gift cards to their employees during the holiday season. Restaurants can
tie-up with corporate clients and offer gift cards to their employees along with some discounts.
This can help in building loyalty with corporate employees who are major spenders at restaurant
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Digital Marketing
Multi-location restaurant companies need to keep their large scale operations local when it
comes to customer perception. The first step towards this should be to ensure that the data
quality is accurate, consistent and complete across all different channels. If the Google result
shows that the restaurant is closed (not updated), then the customer will not visit the restaurant.
A chain competes with not only other chains with similar cuisines but also standalone restaurants
with different cuisines. The correspondence across the platforms should align; for example, if a
customer posts a complaint through social media but receives an unrelated loyalty email thanking
them for dining at the location.
Benefits of digital marketing
ЛЛ It can be personalised based on location, preferences and history of the consumer.
ЛЛ Location-based technology can be used to connect to the customer when he or she is in
the vicinity of the outlet by offering discount, special promotions, and free desserts.
ЛЛ The return on investments on digital marketing is higher than mass media marketing.
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Tracking more than just the clicks
Multi-media or high-impact ads are great opportunities for customer engagement in a variety of
ways such as games and quizzes.
Gaming
Marketing campaigns that include rich-media games are a great way
to generate brand lift and increase customer engagement. Chipotle,
for example, launched a ‘Friend or Faux’ game to create awareness
about ingredients that they use compared to what their competitors
use and provided coupons on successfully completing the game.
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Five ways restaurants can attract today’s customers
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A guide to restaurant marketing
Public relations
To generate strong word of mouth, a restaurant can have a soft opening wherein friends,
family, and suppliers are invited for dinner. Grand opening parties usually follows this: inviting
friends, colleagues, public officials and people in the industry who are going to spread the
word. Fundraisers, community relations and charity events also fall under the category of public
relations and publicity. Radio can be used to precisely target the demographics of its customers.
Social Networks
Social networks are critical and so is the brand website as the first contact with the customer now
usually happens online. Other publicity ideas include catering, cooking demos and going on TV/
radio shows. Fairs are another effective venue as restaurants can promote their food and chefs
directly to the public.
Discounting
Done well, discounting is another smart way to market the restaurant. In slow times, prix fixe menus
prove popular for many restaurants and even early bird specials remain a good way to boost a
slow time of the day. Restaurants that are in the business districts can tie-up with companies to
provide discounts to their employees.
Internet marketing
Internal marketing, which is often overlooked, is an incredible opportunity for restaurants to
market to customers effectively by educating and treating their staff well. When restaurants treat
their staff well, it makes them happy and effective, resulting in happy and loyal customers.
A few aspects that restaurants should remember while designing their marketing campaigns
ЛЛ Defining how to measure success - While designing a restaurant campaign, it is critical to
identify its goal, such as driving traffic even if the restaurant does not make money; attract
regular customers and encourage them to spend more; or simply create a buzz with an
unusual item.
ЛЛ Picking a quantifiable way to measure success - The simplest metric would be a bump in
customer traffic. But a restaurant can a pick a metric related to the size of its average check
or if creating buzz is the goal, it can be web traffic or social media activity.
ЛЛ Determining a marketing budget and stick to it – Sticking to a predetermined budget and
tracking that into the analysis of profitability will help make an informed decision if the
promotion can be undertaken again.
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ЛЛ Understanding that when a promotion increases sales of one item it also affects other items
– If the sale of a certain item increases, the decreased sale of other menu items will either
help or hurt overall profitability. This requires the need for having a deep understanding
of what the customers buy and also know how different menu items vary in profitability
and how sales vary by day and time of day. One approach to scheduling promotions
might be to rely on low-margin traffic driver campaigns in slower months, then shift efforts
to improving check sizes in stronger months.
ЛЛ Know that every geographic market is not the same – If the chain has restaurants at
multiple locations, it is imperative to start by testing a promotion in a few markets to see
how it impacts the business.
ЛЛ It takes time to create a well-run promotion – Having the information at hand to help you
determine if you want to repeat a promotion will lead to a well-reasoned approach that
pays off.
TAO Asian Fusion, New York, has introduced a photo booth by BuzzyBooth in the
restaurant. The photo booth is situated beside the hostess and is free for the customer.
Customers can share thepictures on social media. The photo booth helps the restaurant
on two levels –
ЛЛ A customised frame surrounds the photo, which sends the restaurant’s brand in the social
media universe without any in-house promotion.
ЛЛ It also captures customers’ email and creates a database for future marketing use, such as
loyalty programmes and announcing food specials.
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Sequential messaging is critical as it can help customers decide what to order before they get to
the order point. This can not only increase throughput but also increase the ticket size through
suggestive sells. For example, Panera Bread’s ‘You Pick Two’ offer begins with a signage at the
entryway encouraging customers to select two from among its sandwiches, salads, flatbreads
or soups to create perfect pairing. It is reinforced with another message on similarly designed
signage after customers step inside the vestibule. The message is emphasised once more with a
different coloured message on the menu board’s centre panel.
Menu boards are another oft-missed opportunity to speed throughput. Each menu board
contains a hotspot–the spot where customers typically glance first. Another important aspect for
making the zone merchandising successful is staff training as the responsibility of carrying out
zone merchandising ultimately falls on them
Menu boards
ЛЛ The importance of menu boards for QSRs, fast casuals - Menu boards are critical for QSR
and fast-casual restaurants as engagement varies by type of consumer as well as by how
often they visit. Millennials are more likely to look at menu boards for a new favourite or
experiences.
ЛЛ Digital menu boards are scarce – Digital menu boards offer greater design flexibility,
regular updating and the flexibility to change according to the time of day. Yet, only 16%
of restaurants have them.
ЛЛ Missing out on sales opportunities – Restaurants lose out on sales as promotional
information on check-boosting items such as desserts, side dishes and alcoholic beverages
is not included on menu boards.
ЛЛ Photos are critical – Photos are important, especially to promote signature items and LTOs.
ЛЛ Restaurant Concerns – The major concerns cited by restaurants are space constraints for
detailed menu description and that it is difficult to organise a board so that customers can
easily think through the entire order.
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ЛЛ Send reward information according to customer preferences - Some customers like
receiving text messages, others prefer emails or push notifications. Restaurants should
send reward information to customers the way they want to receive it as this ensures the
highest response rates, the lowest opt-out rates and an effective loyalty programme.
ЛЛ Do not overcomplicate the platform - Creating a programme with a lot of rules and limited
rewards with an expiration date can drive away users from consistently engaging with the
programme.
ЛЛ Do not be passive - Restaurants should make the engagement interesting and fun filled
for customers. Some of the ways to do this are in-app games, random surprises, delight
campaigns and leaderboards. The Greene Turtle, a sports bar and grill chain, has built
a feature in their loyalty programme app wherein customers can predict the winners of
upcoming professional games in the four major sports as well as college football and
basketball and earn points on correct predictions. The company has observed that the
most frequent game players spend 177% more than the average check and also visit
565% more often.
ЛЛ Remember the staff - Restaurants should ensure their staff is engaged and understands
the value of loyalty as the major part of customer engagement is via staff interaction.
ЛЛ Not just a digital platform - Mobile-only loyalty programmes have the lowest adoption rates
in general and, hence, they should also be supported by in-store customer experience.
ЛЛ Include a social cause - Restaurants can associate their loyalty programme with a social
cause to create impact. At Fuzzy’s Taco Shop, customers can donate their reward points to
the ‘No Kid Hungry’ campaign. The chain donates USD1 for every 25 reward points.
ЛЛ Rewards that keep diners coming back - Some restaurants are experimenting with loyalty
programmes that offer discounts or allow users to earn points outside of their stores. Olive
Garden has teamed with Fuel Rewards, a national merchant programme that rewards
customers with savings at petrol pumps. Therefore, customers who spend USD100 at
Olive Garden get discounts on fuel. Starbucks has tied up with Spotify, Lyft and the New
York Times, whereby members earn Starbucks ‘Stars’ when they use services offered by
these organisations.
The Loyalty programme can be complemented with the opportunity to order by tablet or pay by
mobile as these methods allow easier data collection and can be aggregated within the loyalty
program.
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Staff training: More important than marketing
Money spent on customer acquisition (advertising and promotion) can fill a restaurant, but money
spent on customer retention (through staff training and better service) makes that restaurant
profitable by transforming a single visitor into a lifetime guest. Food service marketing budgets
are over-focused on customer acquisition, but not so much on customer retention. This makes
sense for the first year of operations but is counter-intuitive from year two and beyond. A well-
trained staff delivers on the brand promise and creates brand affinity with customers—two critical
drivers of repeat business. In 2014, McDonald’s and Subway spent USD 963 million and 516
million on advertising, while Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks spent a fraction of those
amounts and yet have a stronger reputation for taking care of their employees and customers.
Chipotle Mexican Grill deliberately spends less on marketing to afford higher quality ingredients.
The four stages of marketing and the role that training plays in its success is as follows –
ЛЛ Awareness - In this initial stage of engagement, potential diners may not have even heard
of the restaurant, hence advertising, promotion and social media marketing budgets tend
to be heavily weighted towards new customer engagement.
ЛЛ Consideration - This stage is characterized by contemplation and then decision making
by potential customers. They are now aware of the restaurant and are contemplating if
they should spend their money. If they decide against it, the marketing spend has been
unsuccessful; if they decide to visit, then marketing has been successful and operation/
training takes over.
ЛЛ Visitation - It is at this stage that the brand meets the customer and the customer retention
strategy (service and training) comes into play.
ЛЛ Preference (Affinity) - This is the ultimate goal for every food-service company as preference
drives repeat business and lifelong patronage. Only when restaurants continuously excel
at the Visitation Stage do they convert customers into loyalists.
ЛЛ Applebee’s gave close to 1 million free meals to veterans and active duty military personnel.
The initiative generated 664,596 likes on Facebook, 123,977,592 timeline deliveries on
Twitter and 1,944,123 page views on Applebee’s website over 2 days.
ЛЛ On Halloween, Chipotle offers a discounted USD 3 burrito to customers who visit
Chipotle restaurants after 5 pm in costume. Proceeds from the day, up to USD 1 million,
go towards the Chipotle Cultivate Foundation, which is dedicated to providing resources
and promoting good stewardship for farmers; promoting better livestock husbandry and
encouraging regenerative agricultural practice.
ЛЛ Every time a customer buys a Happy Meal or Mighty Kids Meal, McDonald’s donates a
penny to support Ronald McDonald’s Charity House programs and services.
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Research and development (R&D)
Money spent on customer acquisition (advertising and promotion) can fill a restaurant, but money
spent on customer retention (through staff training and better service) makes that restaurant
profitable by transforming a single visitor into a lifetime guest. Food service marketing budgets
are over-focused on customer acquisition, but not so much on customer retention. This makes
sense for the first year of operations but is counter-intuitive from year two and beyond. A well-
trained staff delivers on the brand promise and creates brand affinity with customers—two critical
drivers of repeat business. In 2014, McDonald’s and Subway spent USD 963 million and 516
million on advertising, while Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks spent a fraction of those
amounts and yet have a stronger reputation for taking care of their employees and customers.
Chipotle Mexican Grill deliberately spends less on marketing to afford higher quality ingredients.
The four stages of marketing and the role that training plays in its success is as follows
Once restaurant brands undergo a rebranding, whether it’s a subtle store redesign or wholesale
menu shift, costs are typically tangible and easy to identify. Before the refresh begins, however,
activities behind the scenes must also be funded and unlike hard costs, activities in the R&D
phase are more difficult to classify. Each aspect of the project requires R&D time and cost to
identify what types of changes should be considered.
The scope of a rebrand often ends up being larger than that initially assumed. Research is needed
to truly understand the bigger picture. Changing the menu, for example, entails more than just
sourcing new ingredients. It also includes updating menu items on the brand’s websites and
revised communication on the brand’s social media channels.
The company should set budget for R&D efforts. When developing the budget for any rebranding
project, the internal costs must also be estimated. Labour costs and utilization of rented space or
equipment do not appear on any invoice but will still consume organisational resources. Focus
and discipline is critical for staying in line with the budget.
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Loss-prevention programme: Top areas to cover
Restaurants operate on tight margins, making a loss-prevention programme critical to success.
The following are the top-5 areas a restaurant’s loss-prevention programme should cover.
Transaction integrity:
Restaurants should keep an eye on voids, no sales, refunds, low transaction amounts and excessive
employee or manager discounts that make it easier for employees to hoard unaccounted-for
cash in the POS, to be taken undetected at a later time. Sweet hearting is another type of theft
that does not result in loss of cash but does contribute to inventory loss.
Cash handling:
Control the quantity of cash left in the till by enforcing a maximum amount and requiring regular
drops of the surplus amount. Restaurants should enforce single-drawer accountability so that
they know which employee handles which POS terminal—useful if there is a cash balancing
discrepancy at the end of shift.
Employee productivity:
Time theft is often-overlooked component of loss prevention. It is necessary to have a plan in
place during slow periods so that staff don’t sit idly – they can use that time to clean, take inventory,
conduct cash counts and drops, organize POS stations, stack cups or anything else that comes to
mind. Do not allow employees to eat, drink or smoke during a shift; also, limit mobile use.
Customer service:
If employees are unpleasant or rude to customers, those patrons won’t be returning to the
restaurant. Restaurants should have a script in place to give employees direction and aid to help
with suggestive selling efforts. Speed of service is also important –customers who feel they have
been kept waiting for too long are likely to take their business elsewhere.
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Following are some strategies that restaurants use to attract talent:
Retaining staff
Retaining staff and preventing constant turnover are the most significant challenges in the
restaurant business. To address this, Applebee’s implemented a gamification system that aims to
help servers and staff sell new and supplemental menu items as well as learn about workplace
rules and safety, earn points and win prizes for making progress. Employees access the cloud-
based system via a web browser on smartphones, tablets or computers. Large flat screens located
in the back of each restaurant display the leader board.
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carry more reward points than others and when employees rack up a certain number of points
and badges, they become eligible for prizes.
With increase in minimum-wage requirements, scheduling software is becoming critical to
manage labour. HotSchedules and Monkeypod Kitchen are such systems that provide overtime
alerts and track real-time labour costs, also allowing employees to access their schedules. These
systems may also define a small time range, say 5 minutes, to clock-in and disallow employees to
clock-in before or beyond their scheduled shift time without prior manager approval.
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Food cost management
Restaurants should complement the ordering process with strong internal controls to manage
food costs.
Loss prevention:
Restaurants should identify fraudulent activities through alerts and trend tracking, monitor high-
cost ingredients, isolate critical areas, and track user-specific activities to reduce any dishonest
behaviour.
Menu engineering:
Restaurants should engineer more profitable menus by analysing customer demand, item
percentage sales contributions and cost and profit margins.
Demand-based production:
By forecasting the food production schedule based on sales forecasts and historical consumption
patterns, restaurants can reduce the costs associated with overproduction.
Inventory management:
Maintaining optimal inventory is important to manage food costs. 100% web-based solutions
allow real-time tracking of all items from ordering to depletion and is one of the most important
benefits of using a restaurant inventory software.
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ЛЛ The team is too busy dealing with other things - The restaurant can provide bonus
incentives or give recognition and positive reinforcement to those who reduce waste.
ЛЛ We compost, so we’re already doing our part - Food waste needs to be prevented and not
just disposed effectively.
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Tech to combat food waste
According to estimates, in the US, around USD 165 billion worth of food is wasted every year.
Large portion sizes are a big reason but another contributor is that restaurants often keep more
food than they need to ensure that everything on the menu is available. Lastly, many chains
have inflexible rules that require them to throw out foods instead of giving it to food banks. The
following are three tech tools that can help operators combat some of the food waste –
Food Cowboy
It uses mobile technology to safely route surplus food from wholesalers and restaurants to food
banks and soup kitchens instead of landfills. Apart from the CSR credit, restaurants can also
benefit from enhanced tax deductions when they donate. Donors may be able to deduct half the
profits they lose on unsold food. For example, if the food donated cost USD 10 in ingredients
and labour and would have been sold for a profit of USD 6, the tax deduction would be USD 13.
The platform uses tech to allow donors and charities to communicate efficiently, track donations,
match donations to charities ex hours of operations, loading dock size, cooler capacity and ensure
that food-safety requirements are met. Anytime restaurant operators have food to donate, they
can open the app and a create donation alert that tells the charity what is available and when
it can be picked up. The charity will confirm the interest in the donation, schedule a pickup and
confirm when the food was accepted. Food Cowboy also requires charities to have food-safety
procedures in place for transporting, storing and serving food.
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The Eco-Safe Digester
LeanPath-Zap
LeanPath offers an automated food-waste-monitoring system that restaurant operators can use
on their tablets. Powered by LeanPath Online, the dashboard allows users to review a variety of
info, including wasted foods and the top loss reasons. They can also set up text-message alerts
tied to specific waste parameters and receive a weekly summary of top waste instances.
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Disrupting Food
The fast-casual segment has already started to disrupt fast food. At the same time, consumer
demand for healthier, real food and increased convenience are further driving a need for
disruption in the restaurant industry. Technology is reshaping how every aspect of food–
production, distribution and consumption– will evolve. Food start-ups are using technology and
tech start-ups will increasingly be targeting the food industry.
Limited-service restaurants are at the forefront of using technology because of the short amount of
time that they have to get everything out. Even the casual-dining chains are adapting technology
to improve customer experience and efficiencies in their operations. Listed below are some of
the technology adoptions by restaurant companies (both limited service and casual dining).
Mobile ordering:
Mobile ordering and payment is picking up, which also helps
the restaurant as it increases throughput. Restaurants having
mobile-ordering apps experience over 20% increase in the
average ticket size on mobile transactions compared to non-
mobile. Limited-service restaurants as well as some casual-
dining restaurants are allowing mobile ordering and pay
ahead facilities for pick-up orders as well. In case of fast-casual
chains, which offer customisation, mobile ordering improves
the accuracy of the order vis-à-vis over the counter orders.
Tabletop tablets:
Casual-dining chains are increasing adopting tabletop tablets
at their restaurants as they serve multiple purposes: they act
as mPOS in the hands of customers thereby increasing the
order intake accuracy, they act as an entertainment hub and an
additional revenue stream and they can speed up the payment
process, which results in better table turns. Restaurant chains
that have installed tabletop tablets claim that they also boost
the average ticket size and increase same-stores sales.
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Loyalty programme:
Chains are integrating their loyalty programmes into customer-facing technologies like mobile
apps and tabletop tablets to help drive repeat business. Moreover, the adoption rate for loyalty
programmes is higher if customers use mobile apps and tabletop tablets. Companies are also
partnering other consumer services companies to provide loyalty points to customers for use of
those services.
Cloud-based POS systems:
With the concerns regarding data security and availability of data in case of network outage
decreasing, companies are increasingly adopting cloud-based POS systems. Cloud-based
systems integrate better with mobile-ordering systems and also help chains to implement unified
POS systems across own and franchisee stores.
Guest-management platform;
Casual-dining and fining-dining restaurants are implementing guest-management platforms to
manage reservations, wait lists, tables, servers and seated guests more effectively.
Order-tracking systems:
Fast-casual chains offer highly customisable menus at the speed of service close to QSR chains,
with some chains also providing food at the table (though the ordering is at the counter). In order
to manage the speed of service and table service, these chains are adopting order-tracking and
table-tracking systems to manage their operations.
Automation:
As the cost of labour is going up, restaurants are exploring ways to reduce labour in their
operations by using technology. The use of tablet tabletops can help in reducing labour cost for
casual-dining chains as a server can handle more tables. Sushi restaurants in and outside Japan
have been using conveyor belts to serve sushi can explore using sushi bots to prepare sushi.
While burger chains can use burger-flipping robots.
Technology is affecting every aspect of restaurant operation, not just consumer facing but also the
non-consumer facing operations like kitchen operations, inventory ordering and management
process and POS systems. Though food still is, and will remain the most important differentiating
factor, restaurants will increasingly use technology to improve their quality of service and
operations. Restaurant chains are increasingly looking like tech companies. In order to manage
the technology and to keep pace with the changing technology landscape, restaurant chains
such as Starbucks and Chipotle have started hiring chief information officers (CIO) and / or chief
technology officers (CTO).
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Food-tech companies
As with other sectors, tech start-ups are redefining the way food is produced, delivered and
consumed, in the process creating new categories. VC and PE investors are showing interest
in these ‘food-tech’ companies and have invested over USD 1 billion in various concepts. The
following are some of the concepts/companies in the food-tech category
Aggregator/delivery companies:
These are companies that are aggregating the menus of various restaurants and providing delivery
services. These are the most common food-tech companies along with internet-first restaurants.
Some of the players also provide grocery delivery services along with restaurant food. Some of
the players in the space are GrubHub, Postmates, DoorDash, Caviar, OrderUp and UberEats.
Internet-first restaurants:
These restaurants prepare in their central kitchen and deliver to the customer on demand. The
menu is limited and rotates through the week. Some of the companies specialise in vegetarian
meals, while some in healthful food concepts. Some of the players in the space are Sprig,
Spoonrocket, Revolution Foods, and Freshology.
ЛЛ Galley - Hires fine dining trained chefs and delivers freshly cooked food. They have built
kitchen automation software to predict consumer demand and inform ingredient volume.
Instead of the hub-and-spoke system, the company sends all their drivers out with chilled
bags at the beginning of the night, but with an optimised route so that they hit everyone’s
delivery window.
Meal kits:
These are targeted at people who would like to prepare their own food and want to try different
cuisines or dishes. The companies operating in this space send all the ingredients along with the
recipe for a particular dish to the customer who then prepares the food. Some of the players are
Blue Apron, Plated, Purple Carrot and Gobble.
ЛЛ On-demand personal chef - Customers can hire a personal chef for preparing food (usually
for 2-10people). The chef sent by the aggregator is based on the meal the customer
chooses and brings with him/her all the necessary ingredients and equipment required to
prepare the food at the host’s house. Some of the players are Kitchensurfing and Kitchit.
ЛЛ Restaurant rating - These companies list the restaurants and crowdsource the ratings. They
compute a rating based on consumer feedback and also list trends. Yelp is the largest
player in this space. Indian player Zomato is also present outside of India, including the
US.
οο Savoir app –The app makes it easier to locate restaurants serving higher-quality,
better-sourced ingredients in no great revelation. It also has a feature that suggests
healthy dining options, enables credentialed health and fitness professionals to
share their own advice including review of the listed restaurants.
ЛЛ Restaurant reservation - Apps like OpenTable and Reserve help customers reserve table
at their favourite restaurants. They also tie-up with restaurants to provide a curated menu
as an offering to customers.
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οο OpenTable is starting to test how desperately consumers want a desired seat at a
hot dining spot at the last minute with a premium pricing option, ala Uber. 100%
of the proceeds from this pricing will go to the restaurants. It is similar to other
booking options from Reserve, which charges a base USD 5 ‘concierge fee’ for
tables; if one is not readily available, Reserve provides users a separate bid option
for access to a high-demand table at a particular date and time.
The following are some players that are bringing in tech to the restaurants –
ЛЛ ERP/supply chain - Dine Market is a cloud-based platform with a goal to create a seamless
digital marketplace for all parties. The chef, the owner or the manager can open the
website or app and get a real-time picture of what is going on in the business. Restaurants
can place and manage their supply orders with a 2% cost being charged to the vendor on
each transaction.
ЛЛ Food delivery and order-tracking system Table Tracker - In addition to simplifying the
process of locating and delivering food to waiting customers, the restaurant can also use
the system to monitor the volume of orders going into the kitchen and manage potential
backups. When a customer places an order, the cashier gives him or her a Table Tracker
and a timer is started for that order. Tables in the dining room are fitted with RFID tags
that identify the location of the table, which the Table Tracker reads and sends. Table
Tracker also has a colour-coded system that changes colours as orders near the time limit,
alerting staff of a backup and allowing them to take steps to manage order flow and avoid
prolonged delivery times. At day’s end, the management can pull reports from Table
Tracker to analyse delivery times and see how many delayed orders occurred, allowing
them to take steps to solve the issues that may be creating the problem.
ЛЛ App to hire labour - CVR4ME helps restaurants hire trained labour for short term or long
term or according to their need. The app also has a system to rate the labour, thereby
weeding out the least desirable labourers.
ЛЛ Food + Tech Connect - Started as a blog, Food + Tech Connect has now grown into a
company that organises in-person meet-ups and events and offers online resources for
aspiring food entrepreneurs.
ЛЛ Mobile loyalty app provider - FiveStars provides loyalty programme-related services to
small chains and independent restaurants that cannot afford to build on their own owing
to the scale of operations.
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elements that will allow them to perfect the service.
Companies are providing differentiated subscription services in order to get customers. Some
of the services are: Meal kits (Blue Apron, Plated), vegan meal kits (Purple Carrot), diet/health
programme wise meals (Freshology), handcrafted cured meat (Carnivore Club), grocery box
(Amazon Prime), weekly grocery using intelligent algorithm (Just Baguette) and farm-to-table
fresh ingredients, including fruits and vegetables (Fresh City Farms).
Guest-management platform
Darden has rolled of guest-
management platform DineTime
at Olive Garden and LongHorn
Steakhouse, two-largest brands.
With DineTime, restaurants can
effectively organise and manage
wait lists, tables, servers, seated
guests and reservations to
improve speed and service while
collecting real-time statistics and
valuable guest information.
In addition, restaurants immediately gain the ability to accept mobile parties and online
reservations from the mobile app or add online reservations and waiting lists to the brand’s
existing website.
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Eatsa
Eatsa, a San Francisco-based eatery, is
an automated café with no servers, no
line and no meat. It has a bowl-based
menu with a quinoa base. The customer
can give customise orders on the
store’s iPads or app on the smartphone.
When the made-to-order bowl is ready,
the customer can retrieve the meal
from small glass compartments. The
store has also reduced the complexity
in the kitchen, with each employee
responsible for a singular task, paired with the system that tells them exactly what goes into each
bowl and in what order, increasing the speed of service.
3D - Printing
Currently being experimented for desserts and chocolates,
experts feel 3-D printing will play a big role in the restaurant
industry, including the fine dining establishments. 3-D
printing will change the way food is prepared–homemade
pasta of almost any shape and size, perfectly packed veggie burgers, carefully portioned,
identically shaped servings of mashed potatoes. These things will be an easy task for the 3-D
printer. It will increase the creativity in food preparation and presentation, including customisation.
Some pastry chefs already use 3-D printing to make intricate, edible cake decorations.
A New York City restaurant claims that customers constantly using mobiles are to blame for
a dramatic increase in the amount of time it takes to be served in restaurants these days. The
restaurateur claims to have reviewed surveillance videos from 2004 and 2014 and found that
the average time a customer spent in restaurants from start to finish in 2014 was 1 hour and 55
minutes as against 1 hour and 5 minutes in 2004.
After comparing the videos, the restaurant found that mobiles have become a big distraction
for customers, preventing it from serving as efficiently as they did earlier. The customers are
preoccupied with taking photos upon entering and then of food once it is served. The ordering
process itself it taking 21 minutes as against 8 minutes earlier.
Mobile Experience
An increasing number of restaurant chains are leveraging mobile technology to forge stronger
engagements with customers. The following are the top-5 ways this is happening –
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Mobile wallets/payments:
Restaurants are giving customers the ability to pay using mobile payment solutions such as Apple
Pay, Android Pay, PayPal or similar custom solutions to speed transaction times and boost their
business. The mobile payment options are also provided for in-store consumption.
Linebusting:
Linebusting is the practice of sending employees equipped with mPOS devices to take customer
orders and payments before they reach the counter. This helps in shortening the queue and
speeding up service.
Out-of-store service and payments:
mPOS devices also enable a number of out-of-store capabilities, including catering, out-of-
restaurant special events and delivery. This not only expands and streamlines general-service
capabilities but also offers the opportunity to upsell products and services at the point of remote
service without sacrificing security or transaction rates.
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the 3-D printer. It will increase the creativity in food preparation and presentation, including
customisation. Some pastry chefs already use 3-D printing to make intricate, edible cake
decorations.
Delivery
The proliferation of tech-based third party providers such as Postmates or
DoorDash has made restaurant delivery more accessible to consumers in
an increasing on-demand economy. These providers train consumers to
turn to their apps to decide what they want to eat. Many restaurant chains
are concerned that they will lose the opportunity to draw consumers to
their apps, which means they may also lose the data-collection potential
of that direct relationship. Olo, a New York-based
digital ordering provider, announced a new delivery
service called Dispatch that addresses that concern.
Dispatch allows guests to use the participating
restaurant chain’s app, placing their order, which
goes directly to the respective chain’s POS system,
and paying ahead. At checkout, a delivery option is available where the customers can see a
selection of delivery price quote options and times from local delivery providers who serve as
last-mile couriers.
Postmates is working with Starbucks to integrate with their ordering system with Starbucks’ app,
allowing the customers to order delivery through Starbucks’ app.
For restaurant chains like Starbucks, Chipotle and Panera Bread, which have integrated the
ordering system with their app, the next logical step is to offer delivery themselves or tie up
with last-mile logistics companies to deliver on behalf of them. Starbucks, for example, debuted
‘green apron delivery’ in New York City while signing with Postmates for delivery in Seattle and
other areas.
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Loyalty
Starbucks predicts that the addition of mobile ordering will boost participation in
the chain’s loyalty programme. It will also help the brand to reach more consumers
with target marketing, and more upselling components to the mobile app. Taco
Bell is expected to integrate the loyalty programme with the app.
The rate of adoption for the traditional loyalty programme is 5-12% while for
mobile payment combined with the loyalty programme it increases to 18-28%.
Nutrition Data
This can be an added feature for chains that have healthy options and want to showcase the
same to the targeted audience.
Not all food enjoys such delivery demand. Fast-casual chains, however,
saw a different opportunity. In an effort to compete with QSRs on the
speed of service and convenience while still providing high quality,
made-to-order products, fast-casual brands saw that digital ordering
could make them faster than QSR. Customers could order online and
schedule a pick-up time. The online ordering platform could fire the
order into the kitchen just on time so that it is ready when the customer comes for pick-up. Many
thought digital ordering would not be successful for coffee but with mobile apps it has become
feasible as is evident from the success of ‘Mobile Order and Pay’ at Starbucks.
With smartphone apps, the digital ordering process has become simpler as these are web-
enabled, location-aware devices and can store previous / favourite order details, thereby making
digital ordering a simple process. It is estimated that due to smartphones, digital ordering at non-
pizza chains will reach 50% of transactions in half the time that it took pizza chains.
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Digital ordering at casual-dining restaurants
NRA reports that 75% of the restaurant industry transactions are consumed off-premise: The
rise of fast-causal chains is putting competitive pressure on casual-dining restaurants as the
former better serves a guest looking to consume the food off-premise. Fast casuals are designed
to prepare the food efficiently, made-to-order and at minimal cost. Nearly 50% of fast-casual
operators have embraced digital ordering as it provides benefits like larger average order size
(customers no longer feel rushed and are given suggestive selling recommendations); higher
visit frequency (loyal customers return more frequently when given the convenience of getting
to skip the line at pick-up); reduce food waste; and improved order accuracy.
Casual-dining operators should not be constrained by the thought that ‘it is all about the
lively environment and why would I want my customer to consume off-premise?’ Operators
must capitalise on the opportunity to level the playing field with fast-casual and quick-service
restaurants. This has a potential to transcend the limitations of a fixed-dining room and long table
turn times by breaking into the limitless dining room of off-premise and the only constraint is how
many customers the kitchen can serve.
Customisation
Stacked has incorporated an iPad ordering system wherein the customers are able to select
their desired ingredients to visually build their meal on the iPad (which is at each table) before
sending the order to the kitchen. With hundreds of toppings and variations, each order can
be a completely unique formulation of the menu. The iPad ordering system also intimates the
approximate time for the order.
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important information and, hence, the integration of task automation in any form is likely to have
benefits for the company. Using electronic forms streamlines activity around offices and also
allows employees to do their jobs on the run. Mobile solutions also provide a flexible method of
delivering information to the right parties.
POS System
Cloud-based POS
With myriad of disparate hardware and software systems that restaurants need to keep running
their businesses, the role of chief information officer (CIO) in the restaurant industry is becoming
an industry. Cloud-based POS systems offer many benefits; they remove the burden of having
to update and maintain traditional on-premise systems, seamlessly take care of many back-end
processes – from payment to inventory – and reduce costs in the long run. The systems can help
remove the role of CIO and help restaurants focus on food and service. The following are the
common misconceptions regarding cloud-based POS –
ЛЛ Data will be less secure - Restaurant operators feel more secure knowing exactly where
their physical server is located. No matter where the server is located, the vulnerability to
attacks and breaches will always exist. With the cloud, instead of the operators bearing
the burden of keeping their systems up-to-date, they have advantage of highly trained IT
professionals who are maintain the data round the clock. Also, in the event of disaster, the
possibility of recovery from an on-premise server is less compared to cloud where there
are multiple back-ups.
ЛЛ All of this new technology will be too expensive - Restaurant operators pay large upfront
costs for traditional on-premises systems, which get out-dated in a few years. Cloud-based
POS and management systems usually have minimal or no upfront cost as they are based
on the subscription model. The subscription fee takes care of software, support, backups
and, most importantly, future upgrades.
ЛЛ If one loses internet connection, one loses the business - Most of today’s systems build
intelligence directly into the hardware to keep the business running even in the event of
a network outage.
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ЛЛ Cloud does not offer any benefit that the current system cannot provide - The biggest
benefit cloud-based systems provide is integrated data. With these systems, operators
can automatically sync sales, payments (including mobile/online payments), inventory,
customer relationship management (CRM) and payroll data to the accounting software.
This gives an ability to always have an accurate, consolidated understanding of the money
flowing in and out of businesses, ultimately making it possible to run operations as leanly
and effectively as possible.
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Tech: What to prioritise
Technology has been lauded as the saving grace of the restaurant industry, which relies heavily on
efficiency. Restaurant operators report seeing that technology has a direct impact on increased
revenue, increased efficiency and increased customer brand connectivity. Many operators,
however, feel the cost of maintaining or upgrading technology is a major obstacle and state that
they lack the staff to manage IT upgrades. Hence, these operators are finding solutions that are
straightforward and offer support to increase productivity with minimal requirements for training
and upkeep.
Focusing on social media is an easy way to leverage tech as it requires minimal know-how and
economic investment it just requires vigilance and plan. The key to success is to be responsive
and get up-to-speed on the social media market. Restaurant operators could implement software
to notify when certain keywords are posted on social media sites, allowing them to respond
quickly to customer concerns and manage their brand’s online image effectively.
One of the most important considerations is 24-hour, simple, and relevant technology support so
that operators can integrate efforts in a way that increases efficiency, not confusion.
The key is that restaurant operators should not start chasing the latest app, technology or fad
while forgetting what’s core to the brand.
ЛЛ Keeping tech implementation a secret - A technology solution often affects the entire
enterprise in one way or another and, hence, it is important to be proactive and inform
people early and follow up with regular updates.
ЛЛ Diluting focus by taking too many initiatives at once - Rolling out multiple initiatives can
be a recipe for disaster and it is necessary to be practical and implement one initiative at
a time.
ЛЛ Missing the opportunity to examine old processes while updating the systems - This can
be a great chance to fix bad company-wide habits. Evaluating food-storage locations may
make sense while creating new inventory sheets.
ЛЛ Underestimating the resources needed - Implementing ERP is a big job and it touches
almost everyone and, hence, choosing a smart and responsible team lead is critical to
drive the process. The lead should have a dedicated team, budget and a go-to executive
sponsor who can be tapped for additional help if required.
ЛЛ Aiming at a moving target - The legacy system contains much of the data required for the
day-to-day running of the restaurant. Changing certain things at the start of implementation
can slowdown the project dramatically and, hence, it is critical to sequence the changes so
that day-to-day operations are not affected.
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McDonalds
Brand - McDonalds
Format – Quick Service Restaurant
Cuisine – Burger
Brief
McDonald’s is the largest restaurant company in the world. The company currently has around
36,500 stores in 119 countries. Ranked at 6, McDonald’s is the only restaurant brand in the top 50
most valuable global brands as compiled by Forbes. McDonald’s sells around 6.5 million burgers
a day across the globe.
Key Events
ЛЛ 1940 – Dick and Mac McDonald open McDonald’s Bar-B- Q restaurant in San Bernardino,
California
ЛЛ 1948 –Store converted into a self-service, drive-in restaurant with only 9 items, including
staple hamburger
ЛЛ 1955 – Ray Kroc incorporates McDonald’s Corp and opens his first restaurant as a franchisee
in Des Plaines, Illinois
ЛЛ 1961 – Kroc buys out McDonald brothers for USD 2.7 million
ЛЛ 1965 – McDonald’s goes public, offering shares at USD 22.5 per share
ЛЛ 1967 – McDonald’s first international restaurants open in Canada and Puerto Rico
ЛЛ 1968 – 1,000 th store opens in Des Plaines, Illinois
ЛЛ 1978 – 5,000 th store opens in Kanagawa, Japan
ЛЛ 1983 – McDonald’s is present in 32 countries.
ЛЛ 1988 – 10,000 th store opens in Washington DC
ЛЛ 1993 – McCafé launched in Australia
ЛЛ 1996 – 20,000 th store opens; McDonald’s debuts in India
ЛЛ 1999 – 25,000 th store opens in Chicago
ЛЛ 2002 – McCafé debuts in US
ЛЛ 2013 – 35,000 th store opens
ЛЛ 2015 – All-day breakfast menu rolled out
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Key Financials
Market View
ЛЛ McDonald’s growth is driven by all-day breakfast and tactical campaigns such as quality
focus in Europe and value meals in Asia. The company achieved positive same-store sales
growth after 8 quarters of decline and an increase of more than 5% after 14 consecutive
quarters.
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ЛЛ Refranchising efforts may aid cash-flow predictability: McDonald’s has higher operating
margin than peers due to higher-margin franchise revenue–over 80% of its restaurants are
franchised.
ЛЛ Structural reorganization based on geographies: The US (US and Canada),international
lead markets (Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the UK), high-growth markets
(China, Korea, Russia, Poland, Italy, Spain, Netherlands and Switzerland) and foundational
markets and focus on operational efficiencies should provide a foundation for efforts
around core menu innovation, improved customer service and an updated value platform.
The company is also leveraging its new structure to share best practices between the
geographical segments.
ЛЛ McDonald’s turnaround efforts, particularly in the US, to improve food quality perception,
offering friendlier service and providing customization options should result in the
company regaining its lost market share.
Valuation
The EV/EBITDA, which was trading in the 9-10 times range historically, has increased to 13-14
times recently on account of positive same-store sales growth and refranchising efforts.
Note: The EV/EBITDA for FY1 is calculated as EV as on date and current year EBITDA estimate. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA for FY2 is
calculated as EV as on date and next EBITDA estimate.
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
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PROFILES – Starbucks Corp.
Brand - Starbucks
Format – Quick Service Restaurant
Cuisine – Coffee and Snacks
Brief
Starbucks is the largest beverage-based restaurant company in the world. The company currently
has 23,570 stores in 67 countries. The company also owns brands like Teavana and Fresh Evolution.
Starbucks recently launched ‘Evenings’, serving alcohol at some of its stores and aims to have
USD 1 billion in revenue from alcohol by 2019.
Key Events
ЛЛ 1971 – Starbucks opens first coffee retailing store in Seattle’s Pike Place Market
ЛЛ 1982 – Howards Schultz joins Starbucks; company begins providing coffee to restaurants
and espresso bars.
ЛЛ 1984 – Schultz convinces founders to test coffee house concept; first Latte is served.
ЛЛ 1985 – Schultz founds Il Giornale, offering brewed coffee and espressos made from
Starbucks’ coffee beans
ЛЛ 1987 – II Giornale acquires Starbucks and renames it Starbucks Corp
ЛЛ 1992 – Starbucks goes public; store count reaches 165
ЛЛ 1996 – Store count crosses 1,000; opens store in Japan–first store outside of North America
ЛЛ 2002 – Store count crosses 5,000
ЛЛ 2005 – Store count crosses 10,000
ЛЛ 2014 – Store count crosses 20,000
Key Financials
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Break-up for fiscal year 2015
Geographical Segment
Market View
ЛЛ Starbucks’ sales gain aided by unit growth: Starbucks’ revenue has increased at a CAGR
of 11.7% since 2010. Traffic and sales have been driven by a combination of strong non-
US unit growth, product innovation, increase in food orders and high adoption of mobile
payment in the US.
ЛЛ Cost savings may help operating margin: Starbucks’ operating margin is lower than Dunkin’
Donuts’ due to a higher percentage of owned stores. Starbucks is focusing on innovation,
operations and finance and has identified about USD 1 billion in potential leverage across
the company’s cost of goods sold.
ЛЛ Mobile strategy streams up Starbucks’ operational opportunities: Mobile ordering and
payment has increased transactions; currently, over 21% of transactions at the company-
operated stores in the US are through mobile devices.
ЛЛ Starbucks has tied up with partners such as Spotify, the New York Times and Lyft to provide
’Stars’ to their customers; these can only be redeemed at Starbucks..
113
Valuation
The EV/EBITDA is trading at 15-16 times the 1-year forward EBITDA.
Note: The EV/EBITDA for FY1 is calculated as EV as on date and the current year EBITDA estimate. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA for
FY2 is calculated as EV as on date and the next EBITDA estimate; NM - Not Meaningfu
114
Yum! Brands Inc.
Brief
Yum! Brands was formed after PepsiCo’s restaurant business was spun off in 1997. The company
operates nearly 41,000 restaurants in over 130 countries under three brands–Pizza Hut, KFC and
Taco Bell. Pizza Hut operates under casual dining as well as QSR while KFC and Taco Bell operate
under QSR. There are over 15,500 Pizza Hut outlets in 90 countries, around 19,500 KFC outlets in
115 countries and around 6,200 outlets of Taco Bell, of which 6,000 are in the US.
Key Events : Pizza Hut
ЛЛ 1958 – Dan and Frank Carney open first Pizza Hut outlet in Wichita, Kansas
ЛЛ 1970 – 500thoutlet opens in Nashville, Tennessee
ЛЛ 1971 – Pizza Hut becomes the largest pizza restaurant chain in US and globally in terms of
both sales and number of restaurants (1,000+)
ЛЛ 1972 – Pizza Hut goes public
ЛЛ 1973 – 2,000thoutlet opens in Independence, Missouri; goes international with restaurants
in Japan, Canada and England
ЛЛ 1977 – Pizza Hut merges with Pepsi Co
ЛЛ 1986 – 5,000thoutlet opens in Dallas, Texas
ЛЛ 1994 – Pizza Hut becomes the first restaurant chain to offer facility to order pizza via internet.
Outlet count crosses 10,000
ЛЛ 1997 – PepsiCo spins off restaurant division as Tricon Global Restaurants
ЛЛ 2002 – Tricon Global Restaurants becomes Yum! Brands
115
ЛЛ 1940 – Sanders finalises ’Original Recipe’
ЛЛ 1952 – Sanders starts franchising recipe to other restaurants; name Kentucky Fried Chicken
adopted based on suggestion of first franchisee Pete Harman
ЛЛ 1960 – Outlet count crosses 200
ЛЛ 1963 – Outlet count crosses 600
ЛЛ 1964 – Group led by John Brown, in association with financer Jack Messey and first
franchisee Pete Harman, acquires company from Sanders. Franchisees asked to sell only
KFC products and stop selling own products
ЛЛ 1965 – KFC opens first international outlet in Canada
ЛЛ 1966 – KFC goes public
ЛЛ 1970 – Outlet count crosses 3,000; presence in 48 countries
ЛЛ 1971 – KFC sold to packaged food and drinks corporation Heublein Inc.
ЛЛ 1986 – PepsiCo acquires KFC; outlet count crosses 6,500
ЛЛ 1987 – KFC becomes first chain to enter China
ЛЛ 1991 – Outlet count crosses 8,500; chain adopts KFC name
Primary Segment
Currently, Yum! Brands’ primary segment is the China division that covers both KFC and Pizza
Hut in the country and accounts for around 70% of the total owned stores for these two brands.
The India division covers all three brands in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. The stores in
other countries, including in the US, are organised according to the brand.
116
Key Financials
Market View
ЛЛ Yum! Brands aims to unlock value with a spin-off of the China division. Post spin-off, Yum!
Brands’ mostly company-owned and-operated China business will become a separate
entity and a franchisee of Yum! Brands. The move is expected to enable both companies to
focus on accelerating growth and improving margin and shareholders’ value. The spin-off
will also result in an increase in operating margin, as margins are higher in the franchised
117
segment. The spin-off is expected to be completed by the end of 2016.
ЛЛ Yum! Brands’ split may spur growth for Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut. Franchised chains
have higher operating margin due to lower overhead costs. Stronger restaurant-level
economics can translate into faster unit growth because franchisees have a strong
motivation to open stores.
ЛЛ Taco Bell is mostly US-based with international expansion in the early stages. Given the
22% restaurant-level margins, Taco Bell is very attractive to franchisees for expansion. Taco
Bell also recently entered the fast-growing breakfast segment, providing a likely boost to
same-store sales.
ЛЛ All three brands are market leaders in their respective categories with Pizza Hut owning
over 25% share in the US. The spin-off of the China division will help the company focus
on individual brands, thus driving same-store sales and unit growth.
Yum! Brands’ is targeting value meal options to gain a larger slice of the sales pie in the respective
segments of each brand. This will, however, slow margin expansion
Valuation
The EV/EBITDA is trading at 11-12 times the 1-year forward EBITDA.
Note: The EV/EBITDA for FY1 is calculated as EV as on date and the current year EBITDA estimate. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA for
FY2 is calculated as EV as on date and the next EBITDA estimate.
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
118
PROFILES – Chipotle Mexican Grill
Brand - Chipotle Mexican Grill
Format – Fast Casual Restaurant
Cuisine – Mexican
Brief
Chipotle operates fast-casual restaurants serving burritos and other Mexican food. The restaurant
chain is one of the first global fast-casual chains and offers higher quality ingredients than quick-
service restaurants along with customisation, lower prices and faster service. The company
currently operates over 2,000 outlets, mostly in the US, all company operated. Chipotle has had
unprecedented positive same-store sales growth since listing in 2006 till the last quarter of 2015
when sales declined by 15% after numerous stores were shut down due to an E. Coli outbreak at
its stores.
Key Events
ЛЛ 1993 – Steve Ellis opens first Chipotle Mexican Grill in Denver, Colorado
ЛЛ 1998 – McDonald’s makes a minority investment in company; store count is 16
ЛЛ 2001 – McDonald’s becomes largest investor in company
ЛЛ 2005 – Store count crosses 500
ЛЛ 2006 – Goes public while McDonald’s divests entire stake
ЛЛ 2015 – Store count crosses 2,000
Key Financials
119
Market View
ЛЛ US unit growth and time may reignite sales post illness: Chipotle’s revenue increased at
a CAGR of 19.6% since 2010, fueled by 13% unit growth and consistent same-store sales
growth. The company expects to continue its US-focused unit growth.
ЛЛ Margins drop as safety, labour add to ongoing costs: The Company expects new food
safety procedures to add about 200bps to recurring costs. Its ability to raise prices,
however, will be limited for some time, creating a drag on margins.
ЛЛ Free burritos fail to meaningfully raise sales: The Company’s advertising blitz, which
included free burritos, failed to translate into meaningful improvement in same-store sales.
ЛЛ E. Coli-related sales recovery may take 12-18 months, meaning investors might not see
sales rebound until 2017.
ЛЛ Legal action due to the E. Coli outbreak linked to its stores may impact future earnings.
Valuation
Post the E. Coli outbreak; investors dumped the stock, which tumbled by around 40% subsequently.
In the process, Chipotle’s global ranking based on valuation dropped to the fourth position from
the third position. While the company has recovered recently, the valuation is still subdued.
Note: The EV/EBITDA for FY1 is calculated as EV as on date and the current year EBITDA estimate. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA for
FY2 is calculated as EV as on date and the next EBITDA estimate.
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
120
Restaurant Brands Inc.
Brief
Yum! Brands was formed after PepsiCo’s restaurant business was spun off in 1997. The company
operates nearly 41,000 restaurants in over 130 countries under three brands–Pizza Hut, KFC and
Taco Bell. Pizza Hut operates under casual dining as well as QSR while KFC and Taco Bell operate
under QSR. There are over 15,500 Pizza Hut outlets in 90 countries, around 19,500 KFC outlets in
115 countries and around 6,200 outlets of Taco Bell, of which 6,000 are in the US.
Key Events : Burger King
ЛЛ 1953 – Success of McDonalds brothers’ original store inspires Keith Kramer and Matthew
Burns to start Insta-Burger King in Jacksonville, Florida
ЛЛ 1954 – James McLamore and David Edgerton acquire licenses to open and operate an
Insta-Burger King franchise
ЛЛ 1959 – McLamore and Edgerton acquire the brand from founders and rechristen the
company Burger King
ЛЛ 1967 – Pillsbury Company acquires Burger King
ЛЛ 1989 –British alcoholic beverage company Grand Metropolitan acquires Pillsbury and
revives Burger King, which had faltered
ЛЛ 1997 – Grand Metropolitan merges with Guinness to form Diageo
ЛЛ 2002 – Private-equity consortium led by TPG Capital with Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs
Capital Partners acquires Burger King from Diageo
ЛЛ 2006 – Burger King goes public with record stock sale of USD 425 million
ЛЛ 2009 – 12,000th store opens in Beijing
ЛЛ 2010 – 3G Capital acquires Burger King and takes company private
ЛЛ 2012 – Burger King again goes public
121
ЛЛ 2014 – Burger King merges with Tim Horton to form Restaurant Brands
Key Financials
Break-up by Geography
Break-up by Brands
122
Market View
ЛЛ Same-store sales have improved significantly at Burger King and Tim Hortons: Burger King
received a boost from fewer, impactful limited-time offers and value promotions. While
Tim Horton’s growth was fueled by a strong pipeline of new products.
ЛЛ Margins are high due to the almost 100% franchised system for Burger King and strong
company-owned store sales at Tim Hortons’, doubling the EBITDA.
ЛЛ Burger King’s remodel boosts same-store sales: About 50% of Burger King stores in the US
were remodeled at the end of 2015. Burger King also offered its US franchisees reduced
franchisee fees to encourage faster adaption; however, this is likely to curb the effective
franchisee fee rate till 2021.
ЛЛ Burger King boosted international units by 39% over 2011-2014 with an innovative
structure that connects local restaurant operators with financing partners (typically private
equity partners) to create a master franchise joint venture. The operators include Tab Gida
in China and Alsea Sab in Mexico, while the private equity partners include Cartesian
Capital in China and Vinci Partners in Brazil.
ЛЛ Tim Hortons’ US and overseas development could boost growth: Tim Hortons is ramping
up franchise development in the US and other markets outside Canada. International
branding may, however, require heavy investment as the brand has limited awareness
even in the US.
Valuation
The EV/EBITDA is trading at 17-18 times the 1-year forward EBITDA.
123
Note: The EV/EBITDA for FY1 is calculated as EV as on date and the current year EBITDA estimate. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA for
FY2 is calculated as EV as on date and the next EBITDA estimate; NM - Not Meningful
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
124
Jubliant FoodWorks Ltd.
Brief
Jubilant FoodWorks is the largest restaurant company in India. It is the master franchisee for
Domino’s Pizza in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. The company operates more than
1,000 Domino’s Pizza outlets across 230 cities and has over 70% market share in the organised
pizza market in India.
It is also a master franchisee for Dunkin’ Donuts in India and operates 70 Dunkin’ Donuts outlets
in 24 cities.
Key Events
ЛЛ 1995 – Enters into master franchise agreement with Domino’s International for North and
West regions of India
ЛЛ 1996 – First Domino’s Pizza outlet opens in New Delhi
ЛЛ 1998 – Master franchise agreement for Domino’s Pizza extended to whole of India and
Nepal
ЛЛ 2005 – Becomes master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza for Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
ЛЛ 2006 – Domino’s Pizza outlet count crosses 100
ЛЛ 2009 – Domino’s Pizza outlet count crosses 200
ЛЛ 2010 – Company goes public with outlet count of around 300.
ЛЛ 2012 – Domino’s Pizza outlet count crosses 500; becomes master franchisee for Dunkin’
Donuts in India, opens first Dunkin’ Donuts outlet
ЛЛ 2015 – Dunkin’ Donuts outlet count reaches 70
ЛЛ 2016 – Domino’s Pizza outlet count crosses 1,000
125
Key Financials
Market View
ЛЛ With over 1,000 Domino’s Pizza outlets, the company is expected to reduce the pace of
store openings (from March 2013 till date, the outlet count has increased from 586 to
1004). Moreover, the economy has been subdued and the time taken for new stores to
reach maturity has stretched, thereby dragging margins.
ЛЛ Existing cities, especially Tier-II and Tier-III cities, are not fully penetrated, providing an
avenue for unit growth: Margins in these cities are not lower than those in large cities as
the lower sales volume is offset by lower operating costs such as rent and labour.
ЛЛ Largest food-tech Company in India – The online/digital-ordering platform is growing
and is likely to provide a boost to same-store sales. The contribution of online ordering
increased from 21% in Q3FY15 to 38% in Q4FY16 and is expected to increase further
(online ordering contributes to about 75% of Domino’s US sales).
ЛЛ Non-traditional distribution channels such as airports, railways and office complexes are
likely to augment growth: The Company has tied up with Indian Railway Catering and
Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) to provide pizzas to railway passengers at certain stations.
As IRCTC expands this service to more stations, Domino’s is poised to benefit, given its
wide network.
Valuation
The company has been trading at an EV/EBITDA of 22-23 times the 1-year forward EBITDA.
126
Note: The EV/EBITDA for FY1 is calculated as EV as on date and the current year EBITDA estimate. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA for
FY2 is calculated as EV as on date and the next EBITDA estimate.
Source: Bloomberg (May 06, 2016), Avendus analysis
127
Westlife Development Limited
Brand - McDonalds
Format – Quick Service Restaurant
Cuisine – Burger
Brief
Westlife Development, through its subsidiary Hardcastle Restaurants, is the master franchisee for
McDonald’s and McCafé restaurants in West and South India. The company operates 223 outlets
across 29 cities in 8 states in West and South India.
Key Events
ЛЛ 1996 – Company opens first outlet in Mumbai
ЛЛ 2000 – Opens outlet in Pune, first outlet outside of Mumbai
ЛЛ 2002 – Opens first outlet in Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
ЛЛ 2006 – Opens first outlet in South India (Bengaluru)
ЛЛ 2007 – Outlet count reaches 50
ЛЛ 2010 – Outlet count reaches 100; breakfast introduced
ЛЛ 2012 – Outlet count reaches 150
ЛЛ 2013 – Hardcastle Restaurants merges with Westlife Development. First McCafé opens in
Mumbai
ЛЛ 2014 – Outlet count reaches 200
Key Financials
128
Break-up for fiscal year 2015
Market View
ЛЛ Same-store sales growth turns positive after nine quarters: This growth can be primarily
attributed to product introduction, contribution from McDelivery and McCafé. Currently,
McDelivery is offered in 120 outlets while McCafé is present in 62 outlets. As the proportion
of stores with McDelivery and McCafé increase, same-store sales growth is expected to
grow along with operating margin.
ЛЛ Restaurant operating margin has increased from 6.2% in Q2 FY15 to 13.1% in Q3 FY16 on
account of better product mix, menu pricing and effective cost management.
ЛЛ Currently, McDonald’s (Hardcastle Restaurants) is present in 24 cities, while Domino’s is
present in 25 cities in Maharashtra alone. The under-penetrated market presents a high
scope for unit expansion. Hardcastle Restaurants also plans to double the number of
McCafés in the next 12-18 months; this is likely to boost both revenue as well as margins.
Valuation
129
Note:The EV/EBITDA for FY1 is calculated as EV as on date and the current year EBITDA estimate. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA for
FY2 is calculated as EV as on date and the next EBITDA estimate; NM - Not Meaningful
Source: Bloomberg (May 06,2016), Avendus analysis
130
Annexure 1 – Top brands with more than $1 Bn of system wide sales in
the US
AUV
Rank Chain Segment Sub-Segment Sales # Units
(USD Mn)
Sonic America's
15 QSR LSR/Burger 4,033 3,518 1.1
Drive-In
17 Chili's Grill & Bar Casual Dining Casual Dining 3,634 1,263 2.9
132
AUV
Rank Chain Segment Sub-Segment Sales # Units
(USD Mn)
19 Buffalo Wild Wings Casual Dining Casual Dining 3,238 1,052 3.2
Popeye’s Louisiana
27 QSR Chicken 2,419 1,870 1.3
Kitchen
The Cheesecake
35 Casual Dining Casual Dining 1,782 176 10.4
Factory
133
AUV
Rank Chain Segment Sub-Segment Sales # Units
(USD Mn)
Family Dining/Buf-
38 Golden Corral Casual Dining 1,735 500 3.5
fet
134
Annexure 2 - Top brands based on Average Unit Value of over USD 5
Mn in the US
AUV Sales
Rank Chain Segment # Units
(USD Mn) (USD Mn)
Source: www.nrn.com
135
Annexure 3 - Six innovative fast-casual brands that are trying to stand
out from the crowd
Streamlining supply chain (Dig Inn)
Using locally produced food has so far proved relatively elusive, which has prevented limited-
service chains from joining the movement in big way. Farm-to-counter brand Dig Inn is tackling
its supply chain with a fresh perspective, taking a more hands-on approach with its sourcing
practices in order to make fresh, local foods more accessible.
Instead of connecting with farmers and vendors through third parties, Dig Inn goes directly to
the sources, working with suppliers to get exactly what it needs. The company has a distribution
centre that serves as a supply hub for its 11 restaurants. Fresh vegetables are cost prohibitive
to many consumers and having more control of the supply chain allows Dig Inn to not only
support local farmers’ businesses but also to make its vegetable-heavy menu more accessible to
customers. The brand has plans to open at 500 locations.
136
Dog Haus (Don’t take yourself too seriously)
Dog Haus partnered Buzzfeed to produce a video showcasing creative sausage recipes. The
video starring the company’s culinary director and head sausage maker has racked up 2 million
YouTube views since its March premier. The video was a part of a broader strategy from the ‘craft
casual’ chain, one in which Dog Haus forgoes traditional radio and TV spots in favour of social
media marketing and online videos that communicate the brand’s fun, irreverent personality.
The company hired a team of young people to direct Dog Haus’ social media efforts, which
include engaging with nearly every person who mentions the brands and developing creative
content. The company feels that team should be of similar age group as that of the customers
that come in there.
137
Annexure 4 – Top 25 non-US Brands
System
Operating Country of Format Worldwide AUV
Rank Brand Wide Sales
Company Origin Type units (#) (USD Mn)
(USD Mn)
Seven & i
1 7-Eleven Japan C-Store 20,700 54,578 0.4
Holdings Co. Ltd.
FamilyMart Co.
3 FamilyMart Japan C-Store 4,400 16,909 0.3
Ltd.
JD JD Wetherspoon
4 UK Pub 2,100 893 2.4
Wetherspoon PLC
Paris
5 SPC Group South Korea QSR 1,800 3,386 0.5
Baguette
Ting Hsin
7 Dicos International China QSR 1,500 2,250 0.7
Group
Inter Ikea
9 IKEA Netherlands In-Store 1,500 357 4.2
Systems B.V
11 Hotto Motto Plenus Co. Ltd. Japan QSR 1,500 2,705 0.6
Yoshinoya
12 Yoshinoya Japan QSR 1,400 2,048 0.7
Holdings Co. Ltd
Jollibee Foods
14 Jollibee Philippines QSR 1,200 892 1.3
Corp
15 Mister Donut Duskin Co. Ltd. Japan QSR 1,200 2,728 0.4
138
System
Operating Country of Format Worldwide AUV
Rank Brand Wide Sales
Company Origin Type units (#) (USD Mn)
(USD Mn)
Casual
19 Saizeriya Saizeriya Co. Ltd. Japan 1,200 1,221 1.0
Dining
Casual
21 Gusto Skylark Group Japan 1,100 1,369 0.8
Dining
139
Annexure 5 - Valuation of global restaurant companies with market capitalisation of more than USD 1 Bn
3 Yum Brands Pizza Hut, KFC, Taco Bell US 32,938 13,105 2,668 1,293 13.3x 24.9x 22
4 Restaurant Brands Burger King, Tim Horton Canada 19,712 4,032 1,628 356 18.9x 45.7x NA
Chipotle Mexican
5 Chipotle Mexican Grill US 12,703 4,501 894 476 18.4x 38.9x 23
Grill
Olive Garden, Longhorn
6 Darden Restaurants Steakhouse, Yard House & US 7,980 6,905 854 369 10.1x 23.4x 19
others
8 Jollibee Foods Jollibee Philippines 5,154 2,215 213 106 25.7x 48.8x 18
9 Panera Bread Panera Bread US 5,100 2,682 377 149 13.7x 33.4x 23
11 Domino's Australia Domino's (Franchisee) Australia 4,163 588 106 54 37.1x 70.7x 17
140
Net TTM EV / Return on
Rank Company Brands Country Mkt Cap Sales EBITDA TTM PE
Income EBITDA Cap
13 Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel US 3,550 2,861 339 171 10.9x 20.7x 19
14 McDonald's Japan McDonald's (Franchisee) Japan 3,346 1,566 (146) (287) NM NM -24
Franchisee of Domino's
Starbucks, Burger King,
15 Alsea SAB Mexico 3,175 2,039 272 62 14.2x 73.4x 7
Chili's & other American
brands)
19 Cheesecake Factory Cheesecake Factory US 2,516 2,073 246 114 9.6x 20.6x 18
20 Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings US 2,485 1,813 266 95 9.1x 25.2x NA
22 Jack in the Box Jack in the Box US 2,406 1,540 287 109 10.8x 22.7x 16
141
Net TTM EV / Return on
Rank Company Brands Country Mkt Cap Sales EBITDA TTM PE
Income EBITDA Cap
Outback Steakhouse,
25 Bloomin' Brands Carrabba's Bonefish Grill, US 2,214 4,437 428 132 8.3x 21.9x NA
Fleming's
Sukiya, Nakau, Hamazushi
26 Zensho Holdings Japan 1,941 4,339 248 (43) 12.2x NM -4
and others
Café De Coral, Oliver's Su-
Café De Coral Hold-
27 per Sandwiches, The Spa- China 1,730 952 116 71 13.2x 24.3x 16
ings
ghetti House and others
142
Net TTM EV / Return on
Rank Company Brands Country Mkt Cap Sales EBITDA TTM PE
Income EBITDA Cap
Franchisee of Pizza
35 Amrest Holdings Hut, KFC, Burger King, Poland 1,210 887 115 34 12.0x 26.8x 4
Starbucks
Popeyes Louisiana
37 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen US 1,200 257 83 43 15.5x 27.2x 26
Kitchen
Krispy Kreme
42 Krispy Kreme US 1,046 519 68 32 14.7x 32.3x 19
Doughnuts
143
Valuation of global food and beverage companies other than restaurant companies with market capitalisation of more
than USD 1 Bn
Net TTM EV / Return on
Company Country Type Mkt Cap Sales EBITDA TTM PE
Income EBITDA Cap
Compass Group UK Contract Food Services 29,319 27,177 2,454 1,343 13.6x 21.8x 20
Sodexo France Contract Food Services 15,875 23,043 1,608 789 10.6x 20.1x 12
Whitbread Plc UK Hotel & Restaurant 10,009 4,420 1,091 592 10.4x 16.9x 14
Aramark US Contract Food Services 8,135 14,329 1,146 244 11.6x 33.4x 6
Lawson Japan Convinience Store 7,932 1,887 1,010 260 8.8x 30.5x 8
FamilyMart Japan Convinience Store 5,278 1,135 691 175 7.3x 30.2x 6
Kuwait Food Kuwait Restaurant & packaged food 3,206 3,217 396 146 7.0x 22.0x 12
Autogrill SPA Italy Travel Food 2,169 5,371 428 71 6.8x 30.5x 7
144
Annexure 6 – Deals in Smaller Concepts
145
Year Chain Early-stage investor Units
Source: www.nrn.com
146
Annexure 7 – Ranking of companies by revenue from food and bever-
age services in US (above USD 1 Bn)
Revenue
Rank Company Brand
(USD Bn)
15 Panda Restaurant Group Inc. Panda Express, Panda Inn, Hibachi-San 2.2
147
Revenue
Rank Company Brand
(USD Bn)
148
Revenue
Rank Company Brand
(USD Bn)
Note – The ranking is as per the revenue to the company which includes only the franchise fee and not the entire franchisee rev-
enue. For example, McDonald’s brand system wise sales (combined sale of all the stores in US) were around USD 35 billion while
McDonald’s Inc. company revenue was USD 5.6 billion due to over 85% franchised units.
149
Annexure 8 – Key brands in the Indian restaurant space
No of No of
Brand Operating companies Ownership Cuisine
Outlets Cities
CAFE
CCD Coffee Day Enterprises Owned Snacks 1,556 74
CASUAL DINING
Devyani International, Yum,
Pizza Hut Franchise Pizza 88 34
Sapphire Foods
Moti Mahal Moti Mahal Delux & its franchisees Owned Indian 86 42
150
No of No of
Brand Operating companies Ownership Cuisine
Outlets Cities
FROZEN DESSERTS
Frozen Des-
Baskin Robbins Graviss Food Franchise 600 150
sert
Frozen Des-
Naturals Ice Cream Kamaths Ourtimes Ice Cream Owned 119 14
sert
Frozen Des-
Gelato Pan India Owned 60 10
sert
Frozen Des-
Baskin Robbins Graviss Food Franchise 600 150
sert
151
Annexure 9 – Restaurant Companies in India
FY15 FY14 FY13
Company Brands
Sales EBITDA PAT Sales EBITDA PAT Sales EBITDA PAT
Jubilant Foodworks Domino's, Dunkin' Donuts 20,745 2,628 1,233 17,235 2,551 1,258 14,073 2,444 1,331
Coffee Day
Café Coffee Day 9,511 1,909 NA 8,472 1,831 NA 7,325 1,582 NA
Enterprise1
Yum Restaurants2 Pizza Hut, KFC, Taco Bell 8,646 (1,122) NA 8,219 (732) (1,309) 6,331 (131) (474)
Westlife
McDonald's 7,643 354 (291) 7,403 538 488 6,843 653 213
Development
Barbeque Nation
Barbeque Nation 3,041 496 137 2,680 461 242 1,842 272 103
Hospitality
Tata Starbucks Starbucks 1,712 (651) (470) 969 (622) (519) 146 (125) (142)
Mamagoto, Rollmaal,
Azure Hospitality 422 (60) (109) 425 (60) (109) 296 (2) (25)
Speedychow
153
Indian food & beverage service companies other than restaurants
Haldiram Snacks Snacks & restaurants 17,658 2,867 1,281 16,813 1,877 951 12,292 1,371 678
Haldiram Foods
Snacks & restaurants 14,357 1,582 914 12,373 1,347 822 10,119 1,300 824
International
Bikanervala Foods Snacks & restaurants 4,926 468 205 4,177 314 157 3,503 299 150
Haldiram
Snacks & restaurants 2,685 219 103 2,117 164 82 1,554 112 49
Bhujiawala
Sodexo Technical
Managed service 1,700 124 90 1,457 65 37 1,268 8 9
Service
Compass India
Managed service 2,058 (106) (33) 1,559 (75) (141) 1,264 (66) (47)
Support Service
Skygourmet
Travel food 1,382 (206) (728) 1,171 (155) (297) 1,099 (859) (1,015)
Catering
Travel Food
Travel food 1,048 255 141 1,255 202 100 966 102 39
Services
154
Annexure 10 – Food tech brands in India
Business Fund
Present in
Company Brand Description / Raised Investor
Cities
Model (USD Mn)
Eatlo Tech
Aggregation of Angel
Solutions Pvt. Eatlo Bangalore 1.09
professional chefs investments
Ltd.
Masalabox
Aggregation of Kochi,
Food Network MasalaBox - -
home chefs Bangalore
Pvt. Ltd.
Ecstasy
Aggregation of Angel
E-Ordering Pvt. Bite Club NCR NA
professional chefs investments
Ltd.
AGGREGATORS
Restaurant
Pisces
aggregation, 100+ cities in
eServices Pvt. FoodPanda NA Rocket Internet
delivery done by India
Ltd.
restaurants
DST Global,
Restaurant
Bundl Harmony Part-
aggregation,
Technologies Swiggy 8 cities 52.59 ners, Accel, SAIF
delivery done by
Pvt. Ltd. Norwest Ven-
Swiggy.
ture Partners
155
Business Fund
Present in
Company Brand Description / Raised Investor
Cities
Model (USD Mn)
2 models Sequoia,Nexus
Tinyowl (a) Restaurant ag- ventures,Matrix
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home chefs ventures
B2B platform for
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Pvt. Ltd. the customers in Partners
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