MODULE 4.

1: PROBABILITY In some experiments it will be helpful to list the elements of a

sample space systematically by means of a tree diagram.
I. SAMPLE SPACE

 Experiment. Used to describe any process that generates a set of

Example #3: Suppose that three items are selected from a manufacturing
data.
process. Each item is inspected and classified GOOD, G, or REJECT, R.
 Sample Space. The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical
What are the possible outcomes?
experiment and is represented by the symbol S.
 Element (Member of Sample Space or Sample Point). Each Example #4: What are the possible outcomes when four coins are tossed

outcome in a sample space. altogether?

 Trial. A performance or repetition of an experiment. Note: If sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample points are
 Probability. Measure of chance of an event taking place. best described by a statement or a rule.

Note: If a sample point has a finite number of elements, members are Format: S = { x / x is (STATEMENT) } where / is read “such that”
listed using commas as separator and enclosed in a bracket.

Format: S = { a, b, c }
Example #5: Set of students in Math 403 section with names beginning
with a consonant.

Example #1: Possible outcomes when a coin is tossed.

Example #2: Experiment of tossing a die. II. EVENTS

a. number shows on the top of the space
A. Event. An event is a subset of a sample space.
b. if the number is even or odd
c. if the number is even  Single Event. If an event is a set containing only one element of

d. if the number is odd a sample space.

 Compound Event. One that can be expressed as a union of
simple events.
Example #6: Drawing a card from a deck of 52 playing cards. Analysis:

a. If S are the suits of the playing cards? 1.

b. If Event A is the possibility of getting a heart, then subset A is?
2.
c. If event B is drawing a red card, subset will be?
3.

B. Null Space. A subset of a sample space that contains no element 4.

and denoted by the symbol Ø or { }.

Example #7: If A = { x / x is a nonprime factor of 7 }

III. OPERATION WITH EVENTS
Example# 8: If S = { x / 10 ≤ x ≤ 20 }, A is a subset of S which is less
a. Intersection with Events. The event containing all th elements that are
than 9.
common to A and B, and denoted by the symbol “ A Ո B “.

S
C. Venn Diagram. A pictorial illustration of the relationships between A B
events and the corresponding sample space.

Legend:

 Rectangle – represents the sample space

Example #9: Let A = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } and B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 }, what is A Ո B?
 Circle – represents events and drawn inside the rectangle.
Example #10: Let A = { x / 5 ≤ x ≤ 13 } and B = { x / 9 ≤ x < 17 }, what is
S A Ո B?
A

B C
 b. Mutually Exclusive (Independent) Events. Two events A and B are c. Union of Events. The union of two events A and B, denoted by the
mutually exclusive if A Ո B = Ø; that is, A and B have no elements in symbol “A U B”, is the event containing all the elements that belong to
common. A or to B or to both.

S
A B S

A B

Example #11: Suppose that a die is tossed. Let, Example #13: Let A = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } and B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 },

A = event that an even number turns up what is A U B?

B = event that an odd number occurs Example #14: Let A = { x / 5 ≤ x ≤ 13 } and B = { x / 9 ≤ x < 17 }, what is
A U B?
What is A Ո B?

d. Complement of an Event. The complement of an event A with respect

Example #12: A card is drawn from 10 cards numbered 1 to 10. Let the
to S is the set of all elements of S that are not in A. Complement
events be
of A is denoted by the symbol A’.
A = {the card drawn is prime}
A ‘ = { x / x Є S and x Є A }
B = {the card drawn is composite}
S
C = {the card is even} A

D = {the card is divisible by three} A’

a. Are A and B mutually exclusive events?

S= A Ս A’
b. How about C and D?
Example #15: Let S = {numbers from 1 to 9}, A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} and B = MODULE 4.1 TASK
{2, 4, 6, 8}, what is A’?
*Verify the following definitions by the use of Venn Diagram.
Example #16: Let S = {x / 1 ≤ x ≤ 20} and B = {x / 9 ≤ x < 17}, what B’?
1. A Ո Ø = Ø
Example #17: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}, A = {2, 4, 7, 9}, B = {1, 3, 7,
2. A U A’ = S
9}, C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}, list all the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events: 3. (A’)’ = A

a. (C’ Ո D) U B 4. A U Ø = A

b. (S Ո B’)’ 5. S’ = Ø

6. A Ո A’ = Ø

7. Ø’ = S

8. Verify that A’ U (B’ U C) = (A Ո B’) U (A’ U C) using information in

Example 17.
MODULE 4.2: COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS b. repetitions are allowed?

THEOREM 1: Multiplication Rule. If an operation can be performed in Example #22: How many five digit numbers can be found from the digits
n1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be performed in n2 1 to 9 if:
ways, then the two operations can be performed in n1 n2 ways.
a. it should be an even number
Example #18: Sarah must wear one of six blouses and one of her four skirts.
b. an odd number?
How many possible outfits does she have?
c. distinct with the first and last number is even
Example #19: How many sample points are there in the sample space when
a pair of dice is thrown once? d. the third digit is odd

THEOREM 2: Generalized Multiplication Rule. If an operation can be PERMUTATION. An arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.
performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be
Example #23: Consider the letters a, b, and c. Possible permutations are:
performed in n2 ways, if for each of first two a third operation can be
performed in n3 ways, and so on, then the sequence of k operations can be without listing:
performed in n1 n2 n3 ……nk ways.
by formula: P=3x2x1
Example #20: How many lunches are possible consisting a soup, an
by symbol: P=nPr
sandwich, dessert, and a drink if one can select from 5 soups, 4 kinds of
sandwiches, 6 desserts, and 7 drinks? Note:

Example #21: How many four digit numbers can be formed from the digits It is denoted by nPr = P(n,r) = P (nr)
1 to 9 if:

a. each digit can be used only once?

THEOREM 3: Permutations. The number of permutations of n distinct THEOREM 5: Circular Permutations. The number of permutations of n
objects is n! distinct objects arranged in a circle is
P =(n–1)!
Example #24: What is the number of permutations of the vowels in the
English alphabet?
This is so by fixing one fixing one object in just one position.

Example #27: In how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in a

THEOREM 4: Linear Permutations. The number of permutations of n circle?
distinct objects taken r at a time is
Example #28: In how many ways can 4 boys and 4 girls be seated at a
n! round table with the boys and girls alternating?
nPr = (n−r)!

THEOREM 6: Indistinguishable Permutations. The number of distinct

Note: The number of permutations of n things taken all at a time is permutations of n things of which n1 are one of a kind, n2 of a second kind,
………, nk of a kth kind is
nPn = n!
n!
P=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 !…..𝑛3 !
Example #25: In how many ways can 4 boys be seated in a row of 7 stools?

Example #26: How many permutations can be made from the letters in the
Example #29: How many permutations can be made with all the letters in
word CYCLE if
the word PROBABILITY?
a. three letters are used at a time?
Example #30: How many signals can be made by arranging 8 flags in a line
b. all letters are used? if 3 are red, 2 are blue, and 3 are white?

c. all letters are used but the first is a vowel?

Example #31: How many permutations can be made with all the letters in THEOREM 8: The number of ways of n distinct objects taken r at a time
the word is
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOLVOLCANOCONIOSIS?
𝑛 n!
( ) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = r!(𝑛−𝑟)!
𝑟
Example #32: How many different ways can 5 red, 5 yellow, and 5 green
bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas tree lights with 15 sockets?

Example #35: From a group of 4 men and 3 women, how many committees
of size 3 are possible?
THEOREM 7: The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects into
r cells with n1 elements in the first cell, n2 elements in the second cell, and a. with no restrictions
so on, is b. with 1 man and 2 women
c. with 2 men and 1 woman if a certain man must be on the committee
𝑛 n!
(𝑛 , 𝑛 … . . 𝑛 ) =
1 2 𝑟 𝑛 1 2!…..𝑛𝑟!
! 𝑛

where n1 + n2 + …… + nr = n
Example #36: In how many ways can a committee of 5 girls be selected
from eight girls if two of them refuse to be together?

Example #33: How many ways can 7 people be assigned to 1 triple and 2
double rooms?
Example #37: In how many ways can a set of 4 English books and two
Example #34: A college plays 12 football games during a season. In how Filipino books be chosen from a set of 6 different English books and 7
many ways can the team end the season with 7 wins, 3 losses, and 2 ties? different Filipino books?
Note: The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is Example #40: If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card, find the
related to the number of combinations by the formula probability that it is a diamond.

𝑛 Example #41: In a poker hand consisting 0f 7 cards, find the probability of

nPr = ( ) 𝑟! = (𝑛𝐶𝑟) 𝑟!
𝑟 holding 2 Kings, 3 Aces and 2 Jacks?

Example #42: A box contains one yellow marble, one red marble and one
blue marble of the same sizes. What is the probability of drawing a yellow
MODULE 4.3: PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
and a red marble together?
Probability of an Event. The probability of an event A is the sum of the
probabilities of all the sample points in A. Therefore,

IV. ADDITIVE RULES

0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1, P (Ø) = 0 , P (S) = 1

THEOREM 10: Additive Rule. If A and B are any two events, then

P ( A U B ) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A Ո B)
Example #38: A coin is tossed once. What is the probability that a head
occurs?
S
A B
Example #39: If a die is tossed once. What is the probability that an even
AՈB
number occurs?
B

THEOREM 9: If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally

 Corollary 1: If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes corresponds to event
A, then the probability of event A is, P ( A U B ) = P (A) + P (B)

𝑛
P (A) =  Corollary 2: If A1, A2, A3,…., An,B are mutually exclusive events, then
𝑁
P (A1 U A2 U A3 U …. U An) = P (A1) + P (A2) + P (A3) + …..+ P (An)

Note: P (A1) + P (A2) + P (A3) + …..+ P (An) = P (S) = 1

 V. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Example #43: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a Conditional Probability. The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted
pair of dice is tossed? by P ( B / A ), is defined by the equation

Example #44: In a college graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied P(AՈB

P (𝐵⁄𝐴) = if P(A) > 0
mathematics, 69 studied history and 35 studied both mathematics and 𝑃 (𝐴)

history. If one of these students is selected at random, find the probability

that
Example #46: A random sample of 200 adults are classified below by sex
a. the student takes mathematics or history
and their level of education attained.
b. the student does not take either of these subjects
Education Male Female
c. the student takes history but not mathematics Elementary 38 45
Secondary 28 50
College 22 17
THEOREM 11: Complements. If A and A’ are complementary events,
then
If a person picked at random from this group, find the probability that
P ( A ) + ) P ( A’ ) = 1
a. the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary

S
education;
A
b. the person does not have a college degree, given that the person is
a female.

Example #45: Among the 40 ME students 12 likes MATH 403. How many
dislikes the course?
Solution: Independent Events. Two events A and B are independent if either

Row P ( B/A ) = P (B) or P (A/B) = P (A)

Education Male Female
Total
otherwise, A and B are dependent.
Elementary 38 45
Secondary 28 50 Example #47: If two cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary deck

College 22 17 of deck of cards, with replacement. The events are defined as

Column A: the first card is Queen

Total
B: the second card is a Heart

a. What is P (B/A)? Are A and B independent?

Example #48: If the two cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary
deck of deck of cards, without replacement. The events are defined as

A: the first card is Queen

B: the second card is a Heart

What is P (B/A)? What conclusion you can derive from the answer?
VI. MULTIPLICATIVE RULE b. What is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis
and the patient doesn’t sue?
THEOREM 12: Multiplicative Rule. If in an experiment, the events A and
B can both occur then

P ( A U B ) = P (A) P ( 𝑩⁄𝑨 ) = P (B Ո A) = P (B) P (𝑨⁄𝑩) THEOREM 14: Generalized Multiplicative Rule. If in an experiment,
the events A1, A2, A3,…., Ak, can occur, then

P (A1 Ո A2 Ո A3 Ո…. ՈAk) = P(A1) P(A2/A1) x P(A3 / A1 Ո A2)………

Example #49: Suppose that a box contains 20 bulbs and 7 of which are
defective. If 2 bulbs selected at random and removed from the box in P (Ak / A1 Ո A2 Ո…….Ո Ak-1

succession without replacement, what is the probability that

a. both bulbs are defective Note: If events are independent

b. both bulbs are non-defective A1 Ո A2 Ո A3 Ո…….ՈAk = P (A1) P( A2) P(A3) ….P (Ak )

THEOREM 13: Special Multiplicative Rule. If two events A and B are Example #51: Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement
independent, then from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the probability that the first

P ( A Ո B ) = P (A) P (B) card is a black ace, the second card is a face card, and the third card is
greater than 6 but less than 10.

Example #50: The probability that a doctor correctly diagnoses a particular

illness is 0.7. Given that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis, the
probability that the patient enters a law suit is 0.9.

a. What is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis

and the patient sues?
VII. BAYES’ RULE

THEOREM 15: Theorem of Total Probability or Rule of Elimination.

E E’
If the events B1, B2, B3,…., Bk, constitute a partition of the sample space
S such that P (Bi) = 0 for i = 1, 2, 3,….,k, then for any event A of S
A
P (A) = P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)

P (A) = P [ (E Ո A ) + (E’ Ո A) ] B2
B3
B1
A B4
= P (E Ո A ) + P (E’ Ո A) A
A
A
A
= P (E) P (𝐴⁄𝐸 ) + P (E’) P (𝐴⁄𝐸′)

Example #52: Given the following information BK Bn

A
Row A
EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED
Total P (A) = P (B1 Ո A) U P (B2 Ո A) U P (B3 Ո A) U …….U P (Bk Ո A)

MALE 38 45 P (A) = P [ (B1 Ո A) + P (B2 Ո A) + P (B3 Ո A) + …….+ P (Bk Ո A) ]

FEMALE 28 50
P (A) = P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)
Column
Total

Thirty-six (36) employed and 12 unemployed are members of Rotaract

Club. If one of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour
throughout the country to publicize the advantages of establishing new
industries in the town, what is the probability of event A that the individual
selected is a member of the Rotaract Club?
Example #53: Three members of a private country club have been Example #54: Using given information in Example #53, if is known that
nominated for the office of President. The probability that Mr. Adams will membership fees have increased, what is the probability that Ms. Cooper
be elected is 0.30, the probability that Mr. Brown will be elected is 0.50, was elected as President of the club?
and the probability that Ms. Cooper will be elected is 0.20. Should Mr.
Adams be elected, the probability for an increase in membership fees is
0.80, should Mr. Brown or Ms. Cooper be elected, the corresponding Example #55: Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at
probabilities for an increase in fees are 0.10 and .40. What is the probability four different locations within the city limits. The radar traps at each of the
that there will be an increase in membership fees? locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 are operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and 30% of the
time, and if a person who is speeding on his way to work has probabilities
Let: A: membership fees are increased
of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing through these locations,
B1: Mr. Adams is elected
a. what is the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket?
B2: Mr. Brown is elected
b. what is the probability that he passed through the radar trap located
B3: Ms. Cooper is elected at L2?

c. at L1?

THEOREM 16: Bayes’ Rule. If the events B1, B2, B3,…., Bk, constitute d. at L1 or L4?
a partition of the sample space S such that P (Bi) = 0 for i = 1, 2, 3,….,k,
e. what is the probability that he does not receive a ticket but he
then for any event A of S such that P (A) = 0
commits a speeding violation as he passed through L3?

P (Br) P (A/Br)
P (Br / A) =
P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)

for r = 1, 2, 3, …….., k.

TO GOD BE THE GLORY! *mgmacatangayferry’2020