I ' S M P S I: Nstructor S Olutions Anual Robability AND Tatistical Nference
I ' S M P S I: Nstructor S Olutions Anual Robability AND Tatistical Nference
SOLUTIONS MANUAL
P ROBABILITY
AND S TATISTICAL I NFERENCE
TENTH EDITION
Robert V. Hogg
Elliot A. Tanis
Dale L. Zimmerman
The author and publisher of this book have used their best efforts in preparing this book. These efforts include the
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or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the
publisher. Printed in the United States of America.
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-518948-1
ISBN-10: 0-13-518948-9
iii
Contents
Preface v
1 Probability 1
1.1 Properties of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Methods of Enumeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 Conditional Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.4 Independent Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.5 Bayes’ Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2 Discrete Distributions 7
2.1 Random Variables of the Discrete Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2 Mathematical Expectation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3 Special Mathematical Expectations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.4 The Binomial Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.5 The Hypergeometric Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.6 The Negative Binomial Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.7 The Poisson Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3 Continuous Distributions 19
3.1 Random Variables of the Continuous Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.2 The Exponential, Gamma, and Chi-Square Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.3 The Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.4 Additional Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4 Bivariate Distributions 33
4.1 Bivariate Distributions of the Discrete Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4.2 The Correlation Coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.3 Conditional Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.4 Bivariate Distributions of the Continuous Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.5 The Bivariate Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
6 Point Estimation 63
6.1 Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
6.2 Exploratory Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
6.3 Order Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
6.4 Maximum Likelihood Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
6.5 A Simple Regression Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
6.6 Asymptotic Distributions of Maximum
Likelihood Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
6.7 Sufficient Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
6.8 Bayesian Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
7 Interval Estimation 87
7.1 Confidence Intervals for Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
7.2 Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Two Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
7.3 Confidence Intervals For Proportions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
7.4 Sample Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
7.5 Distribution-Free Confidence Intervals for Percentiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
7.6 More Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
7.7 Resampling Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
Preface
This solutions manual provides answers for the even-numbered exercises in Probability and Statistical
Inference, tenth edition, by Robert V. Hogg, Elliot A. Tanis, and Dale L. Zimmerman. Complete
solutions are given for most of these exercises. You, the instructor, may decide how many of these
solutions and answers you want to make available to your students. Note that the answers for the
odd-numbered exercises are given in the textbook. Our hope is that this solutions manual will be
helpful to each of you in your teaching.
All of the figures in this manual were generated using Maple, a computer algebra system. Most
of the figures were generated and many of the solutions, especially those involving data, were solved
using procedures that were written by Zaven Karian from Denison University. We thank him for
providing these. These procedures are available free of charge for your use. They are available for
down load at http://www.math.hope.edu/tanis/. Short descriptions of these procedures are provided
on the “Maple Card.” Complete descriptions of these procedures are given in Probability and Statistics:
Explorations with MAPLE, second edition, 1999, written by Zaven Karian and Elliot Tanis, published
by Prentice Hall (ISBN 0-13-021536-8). You can download a slightly revised edition of this manual
at http://www.math.hope.edu/tanis/MapleManual.pdf.
We also want to acknowledge the many suggestions/corrections that were made by our accuracy
checker, Kyle Siegrist.
If you find an error or wish to make a suggestion, please send them to [email protected].
These errata will be posted on http://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/∼dzimmer/.
E.A.T.
D.L.Z.
Chapter 1
Probability
1.1-4 (a) S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, HTTH, TTHH,
HTHT, THTH, THHT, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT};
(b) (i) 5/16, (ii) 0, (iii) 11/16, (iv) 4/16, (v) 4/16, (vi) 9/16, (vii) 4/16.
1.1-10 A∪B∪C = A ∪ (B ∪ C)
P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B ∪ C) − P [A ∩ (B ∪ C)]
= P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (B ∩ C) − P [(A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ C)]
= P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (B ∩ C) − P (A ∩ B) − P (A ∩ C)
+ P (A ∩ B ∩ C).
√ √
2[r − r( 3/2)] 3
1.1-14 P (A) = =1− .
2r 2
1.1-16 Note that the respective probabilities are p0 , p1 = p0 /4, p2 = p0 /42 , · · ·.
X∞
p0
= 1
4k
k=0
p0
= 1
1 − 1/4
3
p0 =
4
15 1
1 − p 0 − p1 = 1 − = .
16 16
(4 − 1 + 3)!
(c) = 20.
(4 − 1)!3!
1.2-6 S ={ DDD, DDFD, DFDD, FDDD, DDFFD, DFDFD, FDDFD, DFFDD,
FDFDD, FFDDD, FFF, FFDF, FDFF, DFFF FFDDF, FDFDF,
DFFDF, FDDFF, DFDFF, DDFFF } so there are 20 possibilities. Note that the
winning player (2 choices) must win the last set and two of the previous sets, so the
number of outcomes is ·µ ¶ µ ¶ µ ¶¸
2 3 4
2 + + = 20.
2 2 2
n µ ¶
X n µ ¶
X
n n n r n−r n
2 = (1 + 1) = (1) (1) = .
r=0
r r=0
r
µ ¶
5 − 1 + 29 33!
1.2-14 = = 40,920.
29 29!4!
µ ¶µ ¶
19 52 − 19
3 6 102,486
1.2-16 (a) µ ¶ = = 0.2917;
52 351,325
9
µ
¶µ ¶µ ¶µ ¶µ ¶µ ¶µ ¶
19
10 7 3 5 2 6
23 1 0 1 0 2 7,695
(b) µ ¶ = = 0.00622.
52 1,236,664
9
P5
1.2-18 (a) P (A) = n=1 (1/2)n = 1 − (1/2)5 ;
P10
(b) P (B) = n=1 (1/2)n = 1 − (1/2)10 ;
(c) P (A ∪ B) = P (B) = 1 − (1/2)10 ;
(d) P (A ∩ B) = P (A) = 1 − (1/2)5 ;
(e) P (C) = P (B) − P (A) = (1/2)5 − (1/2)10 ;
(f ) P (B 0 ) = 1 − P (B) = (1/2)10 .
(d) The proportion of women who favor a gun law is greater than the proportion of men
who favor a gun law.
13 12 1
1.3-4 (a) P (HH) = · = ;
52 51 17
13 13 13
(b) P (HC) = · = ;
52 51 204
N (H ∩ P 0 ) 110
P (H | P 0 ) = 0
= .
N (P ) 648
3 2 1 1
1.3-8 (a) · · = ;
20 19 18 1140
µ ¶µ ¶
3 17
2 1 1 1
(b) µ ¶ · = ;
20 17 380
3
µ ¶µ ¶
3 17
X9
2 2k − 2 1 35
(c) µ ¶ · = = 0.4605;
20 20 − 2k 76
k=1
2k
52 51 50 49 48 47 8,808,975
1.3-10 (a) P (A) = · · · · · = = 0.74141;
52 52 52 52 52 52 11,881,376
(b) P (A0 ) = 1 − P (A) = 0.25859.
1 1 1
1.3-12 (a) It doesn’t matter because P (B1 ) = , P (B5 ) = , P (B18 ) = ;
18 18 18
2 1
(b) P (B) = = on each draw.
18 9
1.3-14 (a) 5 · 4 · 3 = 60;
(b) 5 · 5 · 5 = 125.
3 5 2 4 23
1.3-16 · + · = .
5 8 5 8 40
1 2 3 1 4 3 5 2 3 2
1.4-8 · · + · · + · · = .
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9
3 3 9
1.4-10 (a) · = ;
4 4 16
1 3 3 2 9
(b) · + · = ;
4 4 4 4 16
2 1 2 4 10
(c) · + · = .
4 4 4 4 16
µ ¶3 µ ¶2
1 1
1.4-12 (a) ;
2 2
µ ¶3 µ ¶2
1 1
(b) ;
2 2
µ ¶3 µ ¶2
1 1
(c) ;
2 2
µ ¶3 µ ¶2
5! 1 1
(d) .
3! 2! 2 2
(1 − p1 )(1 − p2 ) = p1 (1 − p2 ) + p2 (1 − p1 ) = p1 p2 .
1.5-4 Let event B denote an accident and let A1 be the event that age of the driver is 16–25.
Then
(0.1)(0.05)
P (A1 | B) =
(0.1)(0.05) + (0.55)(0.02) + (0.20)(0.03) + (0.15)(0.04)
50 50
= = = 0.179.
50 + 110 + 60 + 60 280
1.5-6 Let B be the event that the policyholder dies. Let A1 , A2 , A3 be the events that the
deceased is standard, preferred and ultra-preferred, respectively. Then
(0.60)(0.01)
P (A1 | B) =
(0.60)(0.01) + (0.30)(0.008) + (0.10)(0.007)
60 60
= = = 0.659;
60 + 24 + 7 91
24
P (A2 | B) = = 0.264;
91
7
P (A3 | B) = = 0.077.
91
1.5-8 Let A be the event that the tablet is under warranty.
(0.40)(0.10)
P (B1 | A) =
(0.40)(0.10) + (0.30)(0.05) + (0.20)(0.03) + (0.10)(0.02)
40 40
= = = 0.635;
40 + 15 + 6 + 2 63
15
P (B2 | A) = = 0.238;
63
6
P (B3 | A) = = 0.095;
63
2
P (B4 | A) = = 0.032.
63
1.5-10 (a) P (D + ) = (0.02)(0.92) + (0.98)(0.05) = 0.0184 + 0.0490 = 0.0674;
0.0490 0.0184
(b) P (A− | D+ ) = = 0.727; P (A+ | D+ ) = = 0.273;
0.0674 0.0674
(0.98)(0.95) 9310
(c) P (A− | D− ) = = = 0.998;
(0.02)(0.08) + (0.98)(0.95) 16 + 9310
P (A+ | D− ) = 0.002;
(d) Yes, particularly those in part (b).
Chapter 2
Discrete Distributions
(b)
f(x)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9
X µ ¶ 9
X
x+1
2.1-4 (a) log10 = [log10 (x + 1) − log10 x]
x=1
x x=1
1
2.1-6 (a) f (x) = , x = 0, 1, 2, · · · , 9;
10
(c)
f(x), h(x)
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
6 − |7 − x|
2.1-8 (a) f (x) = , x = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12;
36
(b)
f(x)
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
(b)
f (w)
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
w
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Figure 2.1–10: Probability histogram of sum of two special dice
2.1-12 Let x equal the number of orange balls and 144 − x the number of blue balls. Then
x x − 1 144 − x 143 − x x 144 − x 144 − x x
· + · = · + ·
144 143 144 143 144 143 144 143
x2 − x + 144 · 143 − 144x − 143x + x2 = 2 · 144x − 2 · x2
x2 − 144x + 5,148 = 0
(x − 78)(x − 66) = 0
Thus there are 78 orange balls and 66 blue balls.