Pandemic economics: the global response to COVID-19
Michael Roberts
It is now one year since the COVID virus started to infect humanity and
eventually turn into a pandemic. There have now been over 100 million
cases of COVID-19 infections, with over 2million deaths. That’s a death
rate of 2%. Each year, influenza kills about 0.1% of people who catch it.
By this measure, COVID-19 virus is clearly much more deadly. Of
course, not everybody has been infected yet, but micro-studies suggest
that around 0.5%-1% of those infected with COVID-19 would die; that is
about five to ten times more deadly than annual influenza.1 Quick math
shows that with a world population of about 7.8bn and assuming ‘herd
immunity’ was achieved at 65% of the population, then an uncontained
virus could have killed 35m people.
Governments around the world have been warned for decades that new
pathogens deadly to humans were emerging ever more frequently and
likely to turn into pandemics. From SARS, MERS, Ebola, and now
COVID-19, epidemiologists and health organisations have been warning
of the impending danger. The UN set up a Global Preparedness
Monitoring Board (GPMD) which reported only last September 2019 and
1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309920302437
warned of a viral pandemic and commented: “[P]reparedness is
hampered by the lack of continued political will at all levels … Although
national leaders respond to health crises when fear and panic grow
strong enough, most countries do not devote the consistent energy and
resources needed to keep outbreaks from escalating into disasters.”2
The dangers were ignored. And there are several reasons why. First, it
has become clear that these new pathogens have emerged because of
the relentless expansion of capitalist production and industrialisation into
all parts of the globe, uncontrolled and with inadequate regard for the
environment and nature.3 Fossil fuel, mineral exploration, and timber
logging, plus industrial plantation farming and sprawling urbanisation
have brought pathogens, which for thousands of years have been in wild
life such as bats and other remotely based animals, into contact with
farm animals and then with humans through wildlife food markets and
farming. But governments did not want to know because effective action
would mean the curbing of profitable industrial expansion.
And the lack of preparation was also exhibited in the failure of big
pharmaceutical firms to invest in research and production of effective
vaccines to provide humans with immunity. The technology is there to do
2 https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/annual_report/GPMB_annualreport_2019.pdf
3 https://nyupress.org/9781583675892/big-farms-make-big-flu/
this – as we now see with the mad rush by many pharmaceutical
companies to produce a vaccine. But before the pandemic, 16 out of the
top 20 American pharmaceutical companies did no research at all in
vaccines to deal with such diseases because they were previously
concentrated in the poor parts of world where there was no profit to be
made.4 They preferred to concentrate on anti-depressants, opioids,
diabetes, and cancers; the diseases of the ‘global north’.
And then there was the state of health systems around the world. In the
advanced capitalist countries, public health systems have been starved
of funding, privatised and hollowed out over the last 40 years to the
benefit of private profit and the market. And health spending has not
been directed towards prevention or primary care but mainly to
emergency treatment. A 2015 study of tuberculosis rates in 99 countries
found that cuts in public spending on healthcare and the privatization of
the health sector were related to a higher prevalence of TB.5 This was
set against decades of privatization of health-care systems in developing
countries, often encouraged by the World Bank and IMF.
As a result, most health systems were already stretched to the limit in
dealing with illness and disease before the pandemic broke – indeed, it
4 https://corporateeurope.org/en/in-the-name-of-innovation
5 https://developingeconomics.org/2020/06/21/privatization-and-the-pandemic/
was regarded as ‘efficient’ to run health capacity at 99%, with no room
for major emergencies. Many health systems had no stock of necessary
equipment for virus pandemics like masks, PPE, ventilators, or even
medicines to ameliorate the impact of the virus. When the pandemic hit,
many health systems in Europe were overwhelmed, forcing ‘triaging’ and
ignoring the impact on residential homes. Eventually, governments had
to impose drastic lockdowns. Also, health systems were then forced to
concentrate on the COVID-19 patients to the detriment of other seriously
ill patients, leading to secondary deaths.
Recent studies have shown that a 10% increase in the percentage of
hospital beds per 1,000 people results in a 1.7% decrease in COVID-19
deaths.6 Some of the highest mortality rates are in the USA, Italy, and
Spain (which have around 3 hospital beds per 1,000 people), whereas
less privatized systems have a much higher ratio of hospital beds per
people, e.g. Germany (8.2), South Korea (10.9), and Japan (13.4). In
other words, the more a health system is public and properly funded and
resourced, the more success it has in saving lives. Privatisation kills.
Of course, there was talk among the corporate boardrooms and
government committees in some countries, that as COVID-19 only killed
mostly the old, sick and infirm and did little damage to the young and
6 https://developingeconomics.org/2020/06/21/privatization-and-the-pandemic/
those healthy and of working age, it would be better to go for ‘herd
immunity’. Indeed, wiping out the old and sick would save public money
eventually and boost productivity! But such a ‘Malthusian solution’ was
generally rejected as too dangerous politically to adopt.7
Some governments like Sweden claimed that lockdowns were
unnecessary and social distancing would be enough. That has not
proved to be the case, as Sweden’s death rate has been ten times
higher than its neighbours in ‘locked down’ Denmark, Norway, or Finland
– and indeed Sweden’s death rate is now close to the initially hard-hit
Italy. Other autocratic and right-wing governments like those in Brazil or
the USA have claimed that COVID-19 is a ‘hoax’, or no worse than flu
and so there was no need for any containment. Again, policies based on
that view have proved to be disastrous for the death rates of these
countries.
COVID-19 deaths per million
Source: Worldometers
7 Although it has been recently revived. https://gbdeclaration.org/
Deaths per million
1600
1431
1400 1311
1215 1172
1200 1134 1100
1026
1000
796
800 700
648
600 487
400
200 111
0
Italy
US
Spain
Mexico
France
Sweden
Brazil
Neth
S Africa
Ger
Russia
India
But lockdowns alone were no answer to containing the pandemic. The
countries that have succeeded most in controlling the virus and saving
lives have been those that had early lockdowns, but also had effective
mass testing and tracing of infections, fully serviced health systems and
massive community cooperation. China, where the virus started, has
had only 5000 deaths or 3 per million. Taiwan, South Korea, New
Zealand, and in Europe, the Scandinavian countries (except Sweden),
have also succeeded to varying degrees.8
8 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
However, in the so-called Global South, lockdowns have not been
successful in containing the virus because it is impossible for most
households to work from home with broadband and millions are casual
informal labourers who have to go to work, come what may. And living in
slums close together is no environment for effective isolation or social
distancing. Moreover, health systems in these countries are inadequate
and mainly private, so there is minimal testing and those infected
severely cannot get treatment. Thus, hundreds of millions in Peru (the
worst affected country in the world), Mexico, India, South Africa, etc. are
still being infected. Cases continue to skyrocket there, even if the
relatively young populations mean that death rates are low.
In the advanced capitalist countries of North America, Europe, and Asia,
the lockdowns have been gradually relaxed. This has now led to a new
wave of localised virus eruptions, which is requiring yet new ‘lite’
lockdowns across Europe. Death rates are not so high as the virus now
mainly affects the young and healthy, with the old self-isolating; and
health systems are better prepared. Even so, the old and the sick are
still forced to stay at home or in residential units with no prospect of
having ‘a life’. And many of those who were severely affected by the
virus have been left with permanent damage to respiratory and heart
systems and other ‘mysterious illnesses’, called ‘long Covid’.9 There is
permanent scarring.
The pandemic slump
And there is permanent scarring to the world economy and people’s
livelihoods. The world capitalist economy is suffering the largest
contraction in output and income in over 100 years (since the ‘Spanish
flu’ epidemic). Over 500m people globally are being driven back into
‘official poverty’ (earning less than $5.50 a day). Millions of people have
lost and will lose their jobs globally, as well as small businesses closing
for good. Government bailouts with cash hand-outs for the unemployed
and loans to companies have been inadequate to save jobs and
incomes and cannot go on for much longer. So bankruptcies will explode
and a new global financial crisis is on the horizon.
Everybody is waiting for the vaccines that will give us immunity. But
experience shows that vaccines are never fully effective (for example
annual flu vaccines are only 60% effective). Moreover, there will be more
pandemics to come, based on new pathogens. Health systems remain
underfunded and inadequate to deal with them. And there is no
international cooperation or plan to control the expansion of fossil fuel
9 https://www.ft.com/content/3387ffe1-f9aa-4751-b6ac-e09f256d7966
exploration (on the contrary) or industrial farming that brought the
viruses in the first place. There is no end in sight.
Around 2.7 billion workers worldwide have been affected by full or partial
lockdown measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic, i.e., around
81% of the world’s 3.3 billion workforce. The world economy has seen
nothing like this. Nearly all economic forecasts for global gross domestic
product (GDP) in 2020 are for a contraction much worse than in the
Great Recession of 2008-9.10
Global real GDP growth (percentage)
Source: International Monetary Fund data.
During the lockdowns, output in most economies fell by a quarter
according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), with the effects felt in sectors amounting to a
10
third of GDP in the major economies. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
chief Kristalina Georgieva projects that “over 170 countries will
experience negative per capita income growth this year.”11 Investment
bank JPMorgan’s economists predict that the pandemic will cost the
world at least $5.5 trillion in lost output, greater than the annual output of
Japan. And that would be lost forever. That is almost 8% of GDP
through to the end of 2021. The cost to developed economies alone will
be greater than that lost in the recessions of 2008-9 and 1974-5
combined.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
reckons the global economy’s real GDP will contract by about 4.3% this
year, leaving global output by year’s end over $6 trillion short (in current
US dollars) of what economists had expected it to be before the COVID-
19 pathogen began to spread. “In short, the world is grappling with the
equivalent of a complete wipe out of the Brazilian, Indian, and Mexican
economies. And as domestic activity contracts, so goes the international
economy; trade will shrink by around one fifth this year, foreign direct
investment flows by up to 40 per cent and remittances will drop by over
$100 billion.”12
11 Georgieva, 2020
12 https://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=2853
World trade was already falling at a 2% annual rate before the pandemic
because of weakening economies and the US-China trade war. Now
trade is expected to contract by over 13% this year, faster than during
the Great Recession.13 The collapse in goods trade is particularly
damaging to the so-called developing or emerging economies of the
‘Global South’. Many are exporters of basic commodities such as fuel,
industrial metals, and agricultural products, whose prices have
plummeted since the end of the Great Recession.
Emerging markets disaster
Many larger economies in the Global South—such as Mexico, Argentina,
and South Africa—were already in a recession when the pandemic hit.
The IMF now reckons that output in the so-called ‘emerging markets’ will
have fallen by 2.4%% in 2020, the first decline since reliable records
began in 1951.14 This figure includes the giant economies of China and
India. It was their growth during the Great Recession that ensured that
there was no average contraction among developing economies then.
This time it is different.
As for the smaller emerging economies, the situation is already
deteriorating fast. The World Bank believes that the pandemic will push
13 World Trade Organisation, 2020.
14 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-world-economic-outlook-update
sub-Saharan Africa into recession in 2020 for the first time in 25 years.
More than 90 ‘emerging’ countries, nearly half the world’s nations, have
enquired about bailouts from the IMF—and at least 60 have sought to
avail themselves of World Bank programmes. These two institutions
together have resources of up to $1.2 trillion available to battle the
economic fallout, but only $50 billion of this can be deployed to
“emerging markets”, and only $10 billion to low-income members. These
figures are tiny compared with the losses in income, GDP, and capital
outflows. In 2020, nearly $100 billion of capital flowed out of emerging
markets, according to data from the Institute of International Finance
(IIF), compared to $26 billion outflow during the global financial crisis of
a decade ago. Moreover, the last thing that distressed economies need
is another loan from the IMF, as the example of Pakistan demonstrates.
The IMF is still demanding austerity measures from the Pakistan
government in the middle of this pandemic in return for previous loans.15
In addition to this government debt crisis, there has been a growth of
private debt since the Great Recession, and this has been taking place
fastest in the so-called developing economies. Much of this debt is
denominated in US dollars, and as that hegemonic currency increases in
15 See Ali Jan, 2020; Roberts, 2018
value as a “safe haven” during the crisis, the burden of repayment will
mount for these economies.
There is little room to boost government spending to alleviate the hit.
The “developing” economies are in a much weaker position than during
the global financial crisis of 2008-9. In 2007, 40 emerging market and
middle-income countries had a combined central government fiscal
surplus of 0.3% of gross domestic product. Last year, the same
economies posted a fiscal deficit of 4.9% of GDP.
Global unemployment is also rocketing. The International Labour
Organisation (ILO) reckons that the income earned by workers round the
world fell 9 per cent in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic — a
loss worth more than $3tn, or 5% of world GDP. This is equivalent to
255 million full-time jobs, approximately four times greater than the
number lost during the 2009 global financial crisis. More than 400
million enterprises—made up of companies and self-employed people—
are in “at risk” sectors such as manufacturing, retail, restaurants and
hotels.16
Underemployment is also expected to increase on a large scale. And, as
witnessed in previous crises, the shock to labour demand is likely to
translate into significant downward adjustments to wages and working
16 ILO, 2020
hours. The strain on incomes resulting from the decline in economic
activity will devastate workers close to or below the poverty line. Under
the “mid and high” economic damage projections from the ILO, there will
be 20-30 million more people in working poverty than before the pre-
COVID-19 estimate for 2020.
The World Bank reckons that the pandemic will push between 88m and
115m people into extreme poverty this year, which the Bank defines as
living on less than $1.90 a day (a ridiculously low threshold). More than
80% of those who will fall into extreme poverty are in middle-income
countries, with south Asia the worst-hit region, followed by sub-Saharan
Africa.
Progress in reducing poverty had been slowing before the pandemic
anyway. About 52m people worldwide rose out of (World Bank) poverty
between 2015 and 2017 but the rate of poverty reduction had slowed to
less than half a percentage point a year during that period, after
reductions of about 1% a year between 1990 and 2015. And all the
reduction in poverty rates have been in Asia, in particular East Asia, and
especially China. Strip China out and there has been little or no
improvement in absolute poverty in 30 years.
A quick recovery?
Nonetheless, mainstream economic forecasters have remained
optimistic for a sharp recovery in the second half of 2020. China is
recovering fast, the argument goes, and the major capitalist economies
will bounce back once the pandemic subsides or the authorities are able
to contain it.
There are two reasons given. The first is the belief that the lockdowns
would soon be over; treatments and vaccines are on their way to stop
the virus and the pandemic would soon be forgotten. That hope has so
far not materialised.
The second reason is that central banks and even the international
agencies such as the IMF and the World Bank have jumped in to inject
credit through the purchases of government bonds, corporate bonds,
student loans, and even more exotic financial assets on a scale never
seen before, even during 2008-9. Also, fiscal spending approved by the
US Congress and other governments far exceeds the spending
programme during the Great Recession. It has reached over 4% of GDP
in fiscal stimulus and another 5% in credit injections and government
guarantees, with more to come this year from the EU and the Biden
administration. That is more than twice the amount in the Great
Recession, with some key countries ploughing in even more to
compensate workers put out of work and small businesses closed down.
Most of this largesse is to keep business, particularly big business, alive,
rather than to help workers and small businesses. If we take the $2
trillion package agreed by the US Congress, two-thirds of it has gone in
the form of outright cash injections and loans that may not be repaid, to
big business (travel companies and so on) and to smaller businesses,
but just one-third to helping the millions of workers and self-employed
people to survive with cash handouts and tax deferrals.
It is the same picture in Europe: first, save big business; second, tide
over working people. Moreover, the payments for workers laid off and
the self-employed are now being phased out and so fall short of
providing sufficient support for the millions that have already been
locked down or have seen their companies lay them off.
The IMF forecasts that the world economy will returni to its 2019 level by
the of end of 2021. Even if it does, it would still leave a $12 trillion
income shortfall in its wake and an engorged debt burden, particularly in
the public sector. But that is not going to happen, says UNCTAD: “Our
own assessment also sees the bounce continuing into next year albeit
with stronger headwinds weakening the pace of global recovery which
will, under the best scenario, struggle to climb above 4 per cent.”
World output projections to 2021
Source: UNCTAD
The tipping-point
One reason not to expect a V-shaped recovery is that Covid-19 was the
tipping-point for the world capitalist economy already in trouble. First, the
profitability of capital in the major economies had been on a downward
trend. Moreover, the mass of global profits was also beginning to
contract before COVID-19 exploded onto the scene. So even if the virus
did not trigger a slump, the conditions for any significant recovery were
just not there.
G7 internal rate of return on capital (weighted by GDP)
Source: Penn World Tables 9.1 IRR series, author’s calculations.
Global corporate profits from six major economies (weighted mean,
percentage year on year, Q4 2019 partially estimated)
Source: National statistics, author’s calculations.
Second, there is debt. Over the past decade, characterised by record
low, or even negative, interest rates, companies have been on a
borrowing binge. Everywhere corporate debt has soared during the long
and weak “expansion” since 2009. Huge debt, particularly in the
corporate sector, is a recipe for a serious crash if the profitability of
capital drops sharply. According to the IIF, the ratio of global debt to
gross domestic product hit an all-time high of over 322%, close to $253
trillion, in the third quarter of 2019. The rise in US non-financial
corporate debt is particularly striking.
A recent OECD report said that, by the end of December 2019, the
global outstanding stock of non-financial corporate bonds had reached
an all-time high of $13.5 trillion, double the level reached in real terms in
December 2008. The rise is most striking in the US, where the Federal
Reserve estimates that corporate debt had risen from $3.3 trillion before
the financial crisis to $6.5 trillion last year. Given that Apple, Facebook,
Microsoft, and Google parent Alphabet alone held net cash at the end of
last year of $328 billion, this suggests that much of the debt is
concentrated in old economic sectors where many companies are less
cash generative than big tech. Debt servicing is thus more
burdensome.17
17 Plender, 2020
US non-financial corporate debt to net worth (percentage)
Source: US Federal Reserve.
The IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability report amplifies this point with
a simulation showing that a recession half as severe as that in 2009
would result in companies with $19 trillion of outstanding debt having
insufficient profits to service that debt.18 So if sales should collapse,
supply chains be disrupted and profitability fall further, these heavily
indebted companies could keel over. That would hit credit markets and
banks, triggering a financial collapse.
Debt to revenue ratio of US non-financial firms,
Source: WRDS Compustat data
18 IMF, 2020.
Before the lockdowns, there were anything between 10 to 20% of firms
in the US and Europe that were barely making enough profit to cover
running costs and debt servicing -the so-called ‘zombie’ firms. Several
middling retail and leisure chains have already filed for bankruptcy, and
airlines and travel agencies may follow.
The mainstream policy reaction
Cash packages for furloughed or unemployed workers are new. Straight
cash handouts by the government to households and firms are, in effect,
what the infamous monetarist economist Milton Friedman called
“helicopter money”, i.e., dollars to be dropped from the sky. Forget the
banks; get the money directly into the hands of those who need it and
who will spend it. Post-Keynesian economists who have pushed for
helicopter money, or “people’s money” as they would prefer it, are thus
apparently vindicated.19
19 Coppola, 2020.
In addition, an idea long excluded by mainstream policy has now
become acceptable: fiscal spending financed not by the issue of more
debt (government bonds) but by simply “printing money” (that is, by a
central bank depositing money in the government’s account). The
policies of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) have arrived. This “monetary
financing” is supposed to be temporary and limited, but supporters of
MMT are cock-a-hoop, hoping that it could become permanent, as they
advocate. Under this approach, governments simply create money and
spend to take the economy towards full employment and keep it there.
Capitalism will be saved by the state and by MMT.20 The problem with
this approach is that it ignores the crucial factor: the social structure of
capitalism. Under capitalism, production and investment is for profit, not
to meet the needs of people. Profit, in turn, depends on the ability to
exploit the working class sufficiently compared to the costs of investment
in technology and productive assets. It does not depend on whether the
government has provided enough “effective demand”.
Michael Pettis, a well-known “balance sheet” macro-economist based in
Beijing, challenges the optimistic assumption that printing money for
increased government spending can do the trick: “If the government can
spend these additional funds in ways that make GDP grow faster than
20 For a Marxist critique of MMT, see Roberts, 2019b.
debt, politicians don’t have to worry about runaway inflation or the piling
up of debt. But if this money isn’t used productively, the opposite is true.”
He adds: “creating or borrowing money does not increase a country’s
wealth unless doing so results directly or indirectly in an increase in
productive investment … If US companies are reluctant to invest not
because the cost of capital is high but rather because expected
profitability is low, they are unlikely to respond to the trade-off between
cheaper capital and lower demand by investing more”.21 You can lead a
horse to water but you cannot make it drink.
The historical evidence shows that the so-called Keynesian multiplier
has limited effect in restoring growth, mainly because it is not the
consumer who matters in reviving the economy but capitalist
companies.22 There is little reason to believe that it will be more effective
this time round.
But what else can governments do, and what else can mainstream
economists recommend? If the social structure of capitalist economies is
to remain untouched, then all you are left with is printing money and
raising government spending.
A social economy
21 Pettis, 2019
22 Roberts, 2012.
However, there is an alternative. Once the current lockdowns end, what
is needed to revive output, investment, and employment is something
like a “war economy” or, more accurately, a “social economy”. The slump
can only be reversed with massive government investment, public
ownership of strategic sectors, and state direction of the productive
sectors of the economy. Andrew Bossie and J W Mason outline the
experience of the public sector role in the wartime US economy. They
show that all sorts of loan guarantees, tax incentives, and other
measures were initially offered by the Franklin Roosevelt administration
to the capitalist sector. But it soon became clear that the capitalists could
not do the job of delivering on the war effort because they would not
invest or boost capacity without profit guarantees. Direct public
investment took over and government-ordered direction was imposed.
Bossie and Mason find that federal spending rose from about 8-10% of
GDP during the 1930s to an average of around 40% of GDP from 1942
to 1945. Most significantly, contract spending on goods and services
accounted for 23% of GDP on average during the war. Currently in most
capitalist economies public sector investment is about 3% of GDP, while
capitalist sector investment is 15% or more. In the war that ratio was
reversed.23
23 Bossie and Mason, 2020.
What happened was a massive rise in government investment and
spending. In 1940, private sector investment was still below the level of
1929 and actually fell further during the war. So the state sector took
over nearly all investment, as resources (value) were diverted to the
production of arms and other security measures in a war economy. John
Maynard Keynes himself said that the war economy demonstrated that,
“it is, it seems, politically impossible for a capitalistic democracy to
organise expenditure on the scale necessary to make the grand
experiments which would prove my case—except in war conditions”.24
The war economy of 1941-5 did not stimulate the private sector; it
replaced the “free market” and investment for profit. To organise the war
economy and to ensure that it produced the goods needed for war, the
Roosevelt government spawned an array of mobilisation agencies that
not only often purchased goods but closely directed their manufacture
and heavily influenced the operation of private companies and whole
industries. Bossie and Mason conclude that: “The more—and faster—
the economy needs to change, the more planning it needs. More than at
any other period in US history, the wartime economy was a planned
economy. The massive, rapid shift from civilian to military production
required far more conscious direction than the normal process of
24 Cited in Renshaw, 1999
economic growth. The national response to the coronavirus and the
transition away from carbon will also require higher than normal degrees
of economic planning by government.”25
The story of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the war that
followed shows us that, once capitalism is in the grip of a long
depression, there must be a grinding destruction of the capital
accumulated in previous decades before a new era of expansion
becomes possible. There is no policy that can avoid that and preserve
the capitalist sector. If the required capital destruction does not happen
this time, then the Long Depression that the world capitalist economy
has suffered since the Great Recession could enter another decade.
The major economies (let alone the so-called emerging economies) will
struggle to come out of this slump unless the law of the market and of
value is replaced by public ownership, investment, and planning, utilising
all the skills and resources of working people. This pandemic has shown
that.
Michael Roberts is a Marxist economist who blogs at
thenextrecession.wordpress.com. He is the author of The Great
Recession: A Marxist View (Lulu, 2009) and The Long Depression:
25 Bossie and Mason, op cit
Marxism and the Global Crisis of Capitalism (Haymarket, 2016). He is
also co-editor of World in Crisis: A Global Analysis of Marx’s Law of
Profitability (Haymarket,2018) and Marx 200: A Review of Marx’s
Economics (Lulu, 2020)
Bibliography
Ali Jan, Ammar, 2020, ‘How Pakistan’s Terrible Covid-19 Response
Forced Doctors onto a Hunger Strike’, Jacobin (3
May), https://jacobinmag.com/2020/05/pakistan-coronavirus-doctors-
protests-hunger-strike-coronavirus
Baines, Joseph, and Sandy Brian Hager, 2020, ‘Covid-19 and the
Coming Corporate Debt Catastrophe’, Sandy Brian Hager blog (13
March), https://sbhager.com/covid-19-and-the-coming-corporate-debt-
catastrophe
Bossie, Andrew, and J W Mason, 2020, ‘The Public Role in Economic
Transformation: Lessons from World War II’, Roosevelt Institute working
paper (March), https://tinyurl.com/yd6x37fk
Brooks, Robin, Elina Ribakova, Sergi Lanau, Jonathan Fortun and
Benjamin Hilgenstock, 2020, ‘Capital Flows Report: Sudden Stop in
Emerging Markets’, Institute of International Finance,
www.iif.com/Portals/0/Files/content/2_IIF2020_April_CFR.pdf
Cerra, Valerie, and Sweta Saxena, 2018, ‘The Economic Scars of Crises
and Recessions’, IMFBlog (21 March)
https://blogs.imf.org/2018/03/21/the-economic-scars-of-crises-and-
recessions
Cohan, William D, 2020, ‘Grim As It Is Now, Larry Summers Guesses
Recovery Could Be Faster Than Anticipated’, Vanity Fair (2 April),
www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/larry-summers-guesses-recovery-
can-be-faster-than-anticipated
Coppola, Frances, 2020, ‘Is ‘Helicopter Money’ the Answer to the
Looming Economic Crisis?’, Open Democracy (17 March),
www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/helicopter-money-answer-
looming-economic-crisis
Dillow, Chris, 2020, ‘On Capitalist Stagnation’, Stumbling and Mumbling
blog, (4 March),
https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2
020/03/on-capitalist-stagnation.html
El-Erian, Mohamed, 2020, ‘Advanced Economies Must Combat Covid-
19 Threat to Developing World’, Guardian (16 April),
www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/advanced-economies-
must-combat-covid-19-threat-to-developing-world
Georgieva, Kristalina, 2020, ‘Confronting the Crisis: Priorities for the
Global Economy’, International Monetary Fund (9 April),
www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/07/sp040920-SMs2020-Curtain-
Raiser
Guerrieri, Veronica, Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub and Iván Werning,
2020, ‘Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply
Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?’, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (2 April), https://economics.mit.edu/files/19351
ILO, 2020, ‘Covid-19 and the World of Work: Impact and Policy
Responses’ (18 March), www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—
dgreports/—dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_738753.pdf
IMF, 2020, ‘Global Financial Stability Report’ (April),
www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2020/04/14/Global-Financial-
Stability-Report-April-2020-49020
IMF, 2021, World Economic Outlook Update January)
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-
world-economic-outlook-update
Kose, M Ayhan, Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge and Naotaka
Sugawara, 2020, ‘Debt and Financial Crises: Will History Repeat Itself?’,
VoxEU (16 March), https://tinyurl.com/ycfu78ss
Krugman, Paul, 2020, ‘The Covid-19 Slump has Arrived’, New York
Time (2 April), www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/opinion/coronavirus-
economy-stimulus.html
Marx, Karl, 1988 [1868], ‘Marx to Ludwig Kugelmann in Hanover, 11 July
1868’, in Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Collected Works, volume 43
(Lawrence & Wishart),
https://marxists.catbull.com/archive/marx/works/1868/letters/68_07_11.h
tm
Mulligan, Casey, 2020, ‘Economic Activity and the Value of Medical
Innovation during a Pandemic’, National Bureau of Economic Research,
www.nber.org/papers/w27060.pdf
Pettis, Michael, 2019, ‘MMT Heaven and MMT Hell for Chinese
Investment and US Fiscal Spending’, Carngie Endowment for
International Peace (11 October),
https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/80054
Plender, John, 2020, ‘The Seeds of the Next Debt Crisis, Financial
Times (4 March), https://www.ft.com/content/27cf0690-5c9d-11ea-b0ab-
339c2307bcd4
Reinhart, Carmen, and Kenneth Rogoff, 2010, ‘Growth in a Time of
Debt’, National Bureau of Economic Research,
www.nber.org/papers/w15639.pdf
Renshaw, Patrick, 1999, ‘Was There a Keynesian Economy in the USA
between 1933 and 1945?’, Journal of Contemporary History, volume 34,
number 3.
Roberts, Michael, 2012, ‘Keynes, the Profits Equation and the Marxist
Multiplier’, Michael Roberts blog (13 June),
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/13/keynes-the-profits-
equation-and-the-marxist-multiplier
Roberts, Michael, 2016, The Long Depression (Haymarket)
Roberts, Michael, 2018, ‘Pakistan: It’s not Cricket’, Michael Roberts blog
(25 July), https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2018/07/25/pakistan-
its-not-cricket
Roberts, Michael, 2019a, ‘MMT, Minsky, Marx and the Money Fetish’,
Michael Roberts blog (26 February),
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2019/02/26/mmt-minsky-marx-
and-the-money-fetish
Roberts, Michael, 2019b, ‘Modern Monetary Theory: A Marxist Critique’,
Class, Race and Corporate Power, volume 7, number 2,
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1133&context
=classracecorporatepower
Rogoff, Kenneth, 2020a, ‘Mapping the Covid-19 Recession’, Project
Syndicate (7 April), www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mapping-
covid19-global-recession-worst-in-150-years-by-kenneth-rogoff-2020-04
Rogoff, Kenneth, 2020b, ‘The 2008 Financial Crisis Will Be Seen as a
Dry Run for Covid-19 Cataclysm’, Guardian (8 April),
www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/08/the-2008-financial-crisis-
will-be-seen-as-a-dry-run-for-covid-19-cataclysm
Tooze, Adam, 2020, ‘Shockwave’, London Review of Books, volume 42,
number 8.
World Bank, 2020, Africa’s Pulse, volume 21,
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/33541/97
81464815683.pdf
World Trade Organisation, 2020, ‘Trade Set to Plunge as Covid-19
Pandemic Upends Global Economy’ (8 April),
www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm