Sign up | Password?

| Shopping cart

HOME ABOUT THEMES VIDEOS BLOGS PUBLICATIONS UPCOMING EVENTS MEMBERSHIP SITEMAP

Search

Blogs
RSS

Book Review by Tony Brown - “In Search of the Balkan Recovery” by Latest Entries
Christopher Cviic and Peter Sanfey
MEPs Revise the EU's Economic Governance
Proposals
04 Oct 2010
Tony Brown Greek Debt Restructuring in June?
Christopher Cviic and Peter Sanfey are acknowledged experts on the political and economic development of the
Risk, Return, Resilience: The Future Financial
Balkans, in particular through their work at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). They System
have shared their experience and insights with participants in the IIEA Balkans Group on several occasions. Now
they have collaborated to produce a book on “the political and economic re-emergence of South-Eastern Europe” Greek Debt - The Endgame Scenarios
which is as timely as it is informative.

This is a short but well researched volume which seeks to tell a story about the Balkans which goes beyond the
stereotypes of ethnic division, repression, violence and corruption. A fresh perspective, highlighting the shift from Search Blogs by Theme
conflict to cooperation, is advanced by reference to the economic transition from socialism to democracy and the
market economy. The potential of developments in the Balkans region to affect the rest of Europe and the
consequent importance of stability and prosperity are underlined. The central themes of what is, overall, a positive All themes
and optimistic narrative are potential and opportunity.
Economics and Finance
The opening chapter contains an authoritative historical survey of the region from World War II to the mid-1990s.
Future of Europe
The extraordinary story started with the ‘understanding’ between Churchill and Stalin in 1944 which defined the
spheres of influence of East and West in the region and took a dramatic turn in 1948 with the expulsion of Tito’s
Justice
Yugoslavia from the Cominform organisation of world communist parties. While Albania, Bulgaria and Romania
followed their own paths in pursuit of communist aims, Yugoslavia – with its six constituent republics – was initially Energy and Climate Change
assisted by Western countries in its unique drive for economic progress. Tito’s death in 1980 led to a gradual
breakdown in the relationships between the central authorities in Belgrade and the individual republics. The Digital Future
determination of the leaders of Slovenia and Croatia to end the centralised party system saw them withdraw from
Foreign and Defence Policy
the League of Communists of Yugoslavia in January 1990. The Balkan region was on the road to war.

Cviic and Sanfey describe the breakup of Yugoslavia in stark terms highlighting the emergence of Slobodan The Wider Europe
Milosevic in Serbia. The terrible events in Bosnia, with years of massacre, displacement and ethnic cleansing
E View
culminating in the horror of Srebrenica, drove an initially unwilling international community to intervene. NATO
bombing of Serb gun-emplacements forced Milosevic to withdraw his forces. The Dayton Agreement of 1995, under
strong US patronage, brought an end to the hostilities but created the dysfunctional state of Bosnia and
Herzegovina.
Search Blogs by Contributors
An important chapter details the events of the period 1996-2009 under the title ‘The Road to Recovery and Stability.’
It looks at the political change brought about in Albania, Bulgaria and Romania. The latter two countries moved on All themes
to full EU membership in 2007 while Albania remains a problematic neighbour to the former Yugoslav states. The
history of Serbia in those years saw attempts under Milosevic and his successors, to create a unitary Serb state
founder with Montenegro, after an EU supervised referendum, achieving fully recognised independence and
Kosovo, following the NATO bombing campaign in 1999, making a unilateral declaration of independence. Brendan Halligan

The significant involvement of the international community – EU, US, NATO – emerges as the crucial element in David Walker
moving the region towards normality. The US / NATO interventions aimed at deterring the aggressive intentions of
Gina Hanrahan
Slobodan Milosevic in both Bosnia and Kosovo were important and ultimately resulted in his disappearance and
indictment for war crimes. On the diplomatic front, the book tells the complicated and frustrating story of the IIEA
emergence of the republics of the former Yugoslavia into the post-communist world. The initial reluctance of the US
and EU to recognise the independence of Croatia and Slovenia arose from concerns about the likelihood of Jill Farrelly
violence and the possibility of setting a precedent elsewhere. It also reflected worries in some capitals about the
role of the reunited Germany in the region. Macedonia posed no particular problems until Greece saw its official Johnny Ryan
name as some form of threat to its northern province. Eventually, these issues were resolved, leaving the region
Joseph Curtin
today with three EU Member States – Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania – two official EU candidate states – Croatia and
Macedonia – four states with promises of future EU accession – Albania, Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Kevin Leydon
Herzegovina – and the yet to be settled status of Kosovo.
Peadar ó Broin
Given the origins of the book in the EBRD it is no surprise that it includes two detailed chapters on economic
recovery and reform. Here, the concept of Transition is seen as crucial – transition from a centralised political and Prof. Karl Whelan
economic system to a model compatible with EU membership. The book gives a graphic description of the early
years of transition when the economies across the region collapsed because of the shock of rapid change and “the Shane Fitzgerald
political explosion at the heart of the region.” The progress towards stability and success in economic terms has
been uneven and two groups have emerged: an advanced group of reformers – Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania and Tony Brown
Croatia – and a group of five less advanced countries where much more needs to be done. The members of the first
group are either in the EU or in accession negotiations and the authors make it clear that the lure of the EU has
been perhaps the strongest driver of reforms across transition countries.
Search Blogs by Tags
The Balkans region has made much progress since 1990 and this has largely been due to a commitment to
sustained reform rather than any quick fix. Where major problems remain, as in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the
impetus towards reform has been reduced because of ongoing ethnic and inter-communal disputes and distrust.
Cviic and Sanfey emphasise that common lessons emerge from any evaluation of progress in transition. First, that
macroeconomic stabilisation is crucial for economic growth. Here the role of many international bodies and agencies
Search Blog Archive
has been vital but always subject to the need to avoid giving rise to dependency. Second, that strong growth
requires a sustained commitment to reforms; there is a clear correlation between those countries that have made All entries
most progress on the reform agenda – on institutions, rule of law, the public sector, combating corruption - and
those that have grown fastest in recent years. And, reform is critical in meeting the demands of EU accession. The April 2011
third, final lesson is that the attitudes of ordinary people are highly important. It is a not too well known fact that only
March 2011
in Albania do people perceive their position to be significantly better than before transition. There is a great
impatience with the pace of change which could provide an opportunity insofar as it creates a sense of urgency in February 2011
governments and business circles as well as in the international community.
January 2011
The final chapter of this compact, compelling narrative – ‘Emerging from the Crisis’ – looks at the situation in the
Balkans in the context of the global economic crisis. It details the efforts of national governments, international December 2010
actors – EU, EBRD, European Investment Bank, World Bank – to support fragile economies. It highlights the specific
attention devoted to avoiding a spill-over of the banking crisis into the region. And the authors arrive at a generally November 2010
optimistic prognosis for the region and its people. Arguing that “an understanding of the past is essential for making
October 2010
a clear judgement about prospects for the future” they recognise that democracy, the rule of law and the market
economy have been established “though not everywhere to the same extent.” A positive development has been the September 2010
creation of structures for regional cooperation which have facilitated trade and investment. The region, they
conclude, is “slowly but surely turning into a zone of cooperation and integration with the rest of Europe and the August 2010
world.”
June 2010
What will the region look like in ten years time? The authors recognise the need for caution in making predictions
but feel confident that all countries will be full member of the European Union by then. This prospect is the one thing May 2010
that can bind together the competing ethnic, political and economic interests and around which they can unite. The
decade ahead will see further catch-up on the countries of central Europe due to the attractiveness of the region for April 2010
inward investment. Each country in the Balkans, it is concluded, has its own path and potential and the conditions
March 2010
exist for this potential to be achieved, provided the people and their leaders are willing and able to make it happen.
February 2010
In his Foreword, Professor Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics and formerly EBRD Chief Economist,
writes that “whether your tastes run to history and politics, to macroeconomic stabilisation under extreme conditions January 2010
or to structural reform following the collapse of a range of varieties of communism, you should read this book and
be instructed and entertained in the process.” I agree. December 2009

Christopher Cviic OBE, writer and broadcaster, was a commentator on East and Central Europe for the Economist November 2009
from 1969 to 1990, worked at Chatham House in the 1990s and served as Political Analyst at the European Bank
for Reconstruction and Development from 1999 to 2007. He is the author of Remaking the Balkans published by October 2009
Chatham House (1991)
September 2009
Peter Sanfey is Lead Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development where he specialises
in analysis of the economic development and reform of South-Eastern Europe. August 2009

Tony Brown was the Irish member of the Board of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development from July 2009
1997 to 2000. He is Chairman of the IIEA Balkans Group.
June 2009

May 2009
As an Independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in
the article are the sole responsibility of the author. March 2009

May 2008
Tags: April 2005
Posted in: The Wider Europe | 0 comments

No comments

Post a Comment

Name

Message

If you register as a user, you will be able to post comments without this CAPTCHA.

Type text
into the box

Type the two words:

Post

The Institute of International and European Affairs, 8 North Great Georges Street, Dublin 1, Ireland Tel +353-1-8746756 Fax +353-1-8786880 Email: [email protected]
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy
web design & development by lightbox