Arab J Geosci

DOI 10.1007/s12517-012-0598-2

ORIGINAL PAPER

Impact of Siberian High on rainfall variability over Northern

part of Indo-Pak region
M. J. Iqbal & S. M. Fahad Riaz & Badar M. K. Ghauri

Received: 15 October 2011 / Accepted: 8 May 2012

# Saudi Society for Geosciences 2012

Abstract Anticyclones dominate the weather over most of Introduction

the eastern and the southern Asia during the winter season.
This study examines the impact of Siberian High on winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Os-
rainfall variability over South Asia. In this paper, the tele- cillation (ENSO) play significant role in determining the winter
connections between the Siberian High and winter precipita- rainfall variability over Southwest Asia (Syed et al. 2006;
tion that cover the northern part of Indo-Pak region have been Cullen et al. 2002; Eshel et al. 2000). In particular, a positive
discussed. The objective indices of area-weighted pressure precipitation anomaly is found in correspondence of positive
and area-weighted latitudinal and longitudinal movements NAO phase and warm ENSO phase over subregion encom-
high are used to find out the linkage between the winter passing the northern Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and the
rainfall in the mentioned region and the Siberian High. The southern Uzbekistan. NAO explains only 10 % of the variabil-
analysis shows that rainfall pattern is significantly correlated ity of winter rainfall. This paper will find new predictors which
with latitudinal displacement of the Siberian High. We have can be used to improve the model of the winter rainfall. Figure 1
constructed a linear model of the winter rainfall using Siberian shows the distribution of sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean
High latitude and Nino34 which explains 27 % variance of the and the continent of Asia during winter (December–February)
winter precipitation for the region under study. The article also over 1961–2000. The pressure pattern in South Asia indicates
explains the physical mechanisms to establish the relation- the influence of Indian Ocean High to the south and the
ships between the Siberian High and regional rainfall. Siberian High to the north. Siberian High (SH) is associated
with the coldest and densest air masses in the Northern
Keywords Siberian high . Winter rainfall . Hemisphere (Lydolf 1977). It is a semipermanent and quasista-
Centers of action (COA) tionary atmospheric center of action, dominant in the boreal
winter season. The location of SH is shown in Fig. 1. SH forms
generally in October mainly in response to strong and contin-
uous radiative cooling in the lower troposphere above the
snow-covered surface of Asia and persists until around the
end of April. Lydolf (1977) considered the SH to be a shallow
M. J. Iqbal (*)
Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, cold-core system confined to the lower levels of the tropo-
University of Karachi, sphere below the 500-hPa pressure level (Panagiotopoulos
Karachi, Pakistan and Shahgedanova 2005). The local effects of the SH on
e-mail: [email protected]
weather and climate in Asia have been documented (Wu
M. J. Iqbal : S. M. F. Riaz 2002). However, the possible role of SH in climatic variability
Department of Mathematics, University of Karachi, over Europe and the Arctic region has received relatively little
Karachi, Pakistan attention. Rogers (1997) studied the North Atlantic storm-track
variability and suggested that the westward extension of the SH
B. M. K. Ghauri
NCRG, Institute of Space and Technology, into Europe is associated with southwesterly advection of
Karachi, Pakistan warm air into northern Europe (Cohen et al. 2001). Thus, these
 Arab J Geosci

Fig. 1 Climatological mean of

winter sea level pressure shows
the influence of Indian Ocean
High to the south and the
Siberian High to the north

studies demonstrate that the Siberian High plays important role Methodology
on regional climate variability.
Thus, in this paper, an attempt has been made to investigate An estimate of the influence of atmospheric pressure fluc-
the possible influence of the Siberian High on the winter tuations on the rainfall variability over Asia can be obtained
rainfall over South Asia. In fact, this study aims to investigate through the quantitative assessment of the fluctuations in the
the variability of winter precipitation over South Asia using pressure of the Siberian High. The pressure index Ip of a
the centers of action approach (Piontkovski and Hameed high-pressure system is defined as an area-weighted pres-
2002; Hameed and Piontkovski 2004; Riemer et al. 2006). sure departure from a threshold value over the domain (I, J):
The large-scale semipermanent high and low pressure centers J  
P
I P
which are prominent on a global map of monthly averaged sea Pij;Δt  Pt cos fij d ij;Δt
level pressure were called the “centers of action” by Rossby et Ip;Δt ¼
i¼1 j¼1
ð1Þ
al. (1939). A key point noted by Rossby et al. was not only P
I P
J
cos fij d ij;Δt
changes in the intensity of pressure but also the position of a i¼1 j¼1
center of action influences regional circulation. Several recent
studies have illustrated the advantages of the centers of action Where Pi j, Δt is the SLP value at grid point (i, j) averaged
(COA) approach (Iqbal and Ilyas 2011; Hameed et al. 2011; over a time interval Δt, in this case monthly SLP values are
Riemer et al. 2006; Bakalian et al. 2007; Piontkovski and taken from the National Centers for Environmental Predic-
Hameed 2002; Hameed and Piontkovski 2004). tion (NCEP) reanalysis, Pt is the threshold SLP value (Pt 0
1,015 mb), ϕij is the latitude of the grid point (i, j). δ01 if
(Pi j, Δt −Pt)>0 and δ00 if (Pi j, Δt −Pt) <0, this ensures that
the pressure difference is due to the high-pressure system.
Data The intensity is thus a measure of the anomaly of the
atmospheric mass (pressure) over the section (I, J). The
The monthly precipitation data are obtained from Climate domain of the Siberian High is chosen as 25–75°N and
Research Unit, University of East Anglia for the period from 50–170°E. The domains of Siberian High and their thresh-
1951 to 2002 for the region: 35–90°N and 0–40°E. Monthly old values Pt are chosen by examining their geographical
averaged gridded sea level pressure (SLP) data are also used ranges in NCEP Reanalysis data over the period 1948–2006.
for calculating objective COA indices for the monthly aver- Similarly, the latitudinal index is defined as:
aged pressure, variability in the positions of the Icelandic Low,
the Azores High, and the Siberian High systems as described P J 
I P 
by Hameed and Piontkovski 2004. The NAO, Atlantic Oscil- Pij;Δt  Pt ϕij cos ϕij d ij;Δt
i¼1 j¼1
lation (AO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) monthly Iϕ;Δt ¼ J 
ð2Þ
P
I P 
indices obtained from the Climate Prediction Center, National Pij;Δt  Pt cos ϕij d ij;Δt
Center for Environmental Prediction, USA. i¼1 j¼1
Arab J Geosci

Fig. 2 Correlation map

between wintertime (DJFM)
precipitation and SHLT with
p00.1. Positive and negative
correlations are marked by
red plus signs and blue circles.
Winter precipitation over
Northern part of Indo-Pak
Region is correlated with SHLT

And the longitudinal index Iλ, Δt is defined in an analo- The variance associated with each index designates the
gous manner. relative importance of the index in modulating the regional
To examine the impact of Siberian High on South Asian variability. Moreover, the total variance gives confidence in
winter rainfall, we have calculated the winter for the season relating and explaining these inter annual variations.
from December to March (December, January, February,
and March (DJFM)). Two rounds of linear regression anal-
ysis have been applied. In the first round, correlations have Results and discussion
been calculated between the rainfall and all COA indices.
We have ignored any collinear ties among the independent The average winter time precipitation (DJFM) for the period
variables at this stage. The purpose is to recognize regions of 1951–2008 over South Asia is correlated with the inten-
where a significant amount of variation can be possibly sity and with the latitudinal and longitudinal variations of
explained by further study. Rainfall averaged over the iden- the SH. The shaded areas in Fig. 2 are those where the
tified regions is calculated. Next, we have identified the correlation between the winter rainfall and the Siberian High
indices with large contributions that could be significant. latitude is significant. Therefore, rainfall over the large
Correlations are calculated among the indices. Thus, signif- region of the northern part of Indo-Pak is correlated with
icant independent COA indices will be identified for the the latitudinal displacement of the Siberian High.
second round of regression. Since several studies demonstrate that interannual to de-
The second round of multiple linear regressions is calcu- cadal changes in winter precipitation over the Southwest are
lated between the regional average or rainfall and the pre- tied to the NAO and ENSO (Syed et al. 2006; Cullen et al.
viously identified independent and significant indices only. 2002; Eshel et al. 2000). Thus, the averaged winter rainfall

Fig. 3 Correlation map

between wintertime (DJFM)
precipitation and NAO with
p00.1. Positive and negative
correlations are marked by red
plus signs and blue circles.
Winter precipitation over
Northern part of Indo-Pak
Region is correlated with NAO
 Arab J Geosci

Fig. 4 Correlation map

between wintertime (DJFM)
precipitation and SOI with
p00.1. Positive and negative
correlations are marked by
red plus signs and blue circles.
Winter precipitation over
Northern part of Indo-Pak
Region is correlated with
ENSO

of Indo-Pak region is also correlated with NAO (Fig. 3) and model of wintertime precipitation over Indo-Pak region
ENSO (Fig. 4). using Siberian High latitude and Nino 34 is developed,
In view of Fig. 2, precipitation indices averaged over the which is given below.
identified region 68–80°E, 30–34°N are calculated with
different indices. The area under study receives heavy rain- Rain ¼ 180:2590  7:0607ðSHLTÞ þ 11:0120ðNino34Þ
fall in South Asia. Five indices (viz., NAO, AO, Siberian ð3Þ
Latitude, SOI, and Nino34) have significance correlation
This model explains 27 % variance of winter precipita-
with the average wintertime precipitation of the mentioned
tion for the region under study. The regression with Siberian
area (Table 1).
High latitude and Nino 34 captures the major patterns of
Note that the dominant COA indices in this region is
wintertime observed precipitation variations from 1952 to
Siberian High Latitude (SHLT). Although both NAO and
2002 over Indo-Pak region (Fig. 5).
ENSO also have significant impact on winter rainfall but the
influence of SHLT is higher than the NAO and ENSO on the
Indo-Pak region. The correlation between precipitation and
Siberian High latitude is −0.44 which shows the winter Teleconnection mechanisms that support the statistical
rainfall is seen to be related to poleward displacement of relationships between COA and winter rainfall
the Siberian High pressure system. variability
One independent pair of indices, Siberian High latitude
and Nino 34 is also used to interpret the results. A linear In this section, we present evidence that regional circula-
tions of the atmosphere and the ocean are consistent with the
empirically determined relationships. Different composites
Table 1 Correlation matrix of DJFM precipitation for Indo-Pak region
(68–80°E, 30–34°N) with COA variables (significant correlations are
bold)

Parameters Correlation coefficients

NAO 0.32
AO 0.30
Siberian High pressure (SHPS) −0.24
Siberian High longitude (SHLN) 0.16
Siberian High latitude (SHLT) −0.44 Fig. 5 A comparison of the winter precipitation of over Indo-Pak
region and our modeled values based on linear regression model for
SOI −0.43 the years 1952–2002. The independent variables in our regression
Nino34 0.38 model are December, January, February, and March (DJFM) averaged
SHLT and Nino 34 0.52 Siberian High Latitude (SHLT) and Nino34. The variance in the winter
precipitation explained by our regression model is R2 00.27
Arab J Geosci

Fig. 6 A 500-mb vector wind

difference when SH was located
to extreme south and SH was
located to extreme north, there
is an anomalous westerly flow
towards northern part of
Indo-Pak region

are constructed with the phase of Siberian High latitude for invades in the mentioned region. In fact, this study shows
the relationships between COA and the rainfall variability how the anticyclones dominate the weather over South Asia
using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly averaged fields of during the cooler months.
winds, pressure, and humidity. The method of composite
analysis is used.
The vector wind anomalies are displayed at 500 mb References
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