ABSTRACT
The US-China trade war is a symptom of many more fundamental issues. The
conflict began on July 6th, 2018, when the US imposed a 25% tariff on 818
Chinese imports. In return, this action led to a series of retaliation by China
and farther punitive tariffs imposed by the US. Although the two has resumed
the talk during G20 leaders’ summit, it is presumably far from over. As a result,
trade between the two partners has suffered. Indonesia is also facing both
pressures. Indonesia is identified as one of the countries contributing to the
US trade deficit and an economic slowdown as China is one of its biggest
trading partners. On the one hand, the disruption could cause a decline in
trade and investment; on the other hand, there can be a positive impact from
the relocation of trade and investment partners. While the outcome of the
trade war is still in question, one can only try to assess the impact and
opportunities of the US-China tariff war on their respective countries. This
paper aims to analyze the impact of US-China trade war on Indonesia and
seeks a strategic step to optimize Indonesia’s export
Keywords: trade war, United States, China, export, Indonesia, impact
iii
CHAPTER I
Introduction
A. Background
The United States (US)-China trade war is a symptom of rising
protectionism, nationalism, and unilateralism. Through America First policy
(Make America Great Again/MAGA), the US Government implemented a free,
fair, and reciprocal trade relationship.1 It was clear that Trump administration
was redefining fair trade along the lines of trade in goods deficits 2 , thus
making countries who had major trade surplus with US as the target.
Forty-one years ago, following a decade of the Cultural Revolution led
by Deng Xiaoping, a series of transformative economic reforms opened China
up to the international community and foreign investment. Since then, the
country’s economic growth has skyrocketed on average of 9,6% annually and
is set to be the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history.3
This expansion, in turn, has made China as United States’ biggest trading
partner. China is the largest (US) merchandise-trading partner, source of
imports, and third-largest US export market.4 Moreover, with a total of $1.11
trillion, China is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities followed
by Japan (US$1.10 trillion), and the United Kingdom (US$332 billion).5 Thus
making China’s growing global economic influence have significant
implications for the United States.
1
Mahendra Siregar, ‘Perang Dagang AS-RRT, GSP Review dan Strategi Peningkatan
Perdagangan RI-AS’, In discussion regarding Perang Dagang AS-RRT: Peluang dan
Tantangan bagi Diplomasi Ekonomi Indonesia, Jakarta, Delivered on 16 June 2019.
2
Mari Pangestu, ‘China-US trade war: an Indonesian perspective’, China Economic Journal
12:2 208-230.
3
The World Bank, ‘The World Bank in China’,
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview, accessed 28 August 2019.
4
Congressional Research Service, ‘China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and
Implications for the United States’, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33534.pdf, accessed 28
August 2019.
5
The Balance, ‘US Debt to China, How Much It Is, Reasons Why, and What if China Sells’,
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355, accessed 28
August 2019.
1
The protectionist policy was immediately enforced after Donald Trump
got elected as the 45th President of the United States. Since then, the global
economy has witnessed a series of trade disputes between China and US,
Generalized System Preference (GSP) review, as well as a review of North
American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) existence.
The implication of trade war is not limited to participating countries. As
tension between the top two trading countries in the world inevitably
intensifies, global growth is projected growing at a sluggish rate (3.2 percent
in 2019), and picking up to 3.5 percent in 2020 with the assumption that
progress is being made toward resolving trade policy differences. 6 The
Negative spillover has been affecting other countries’ trade activities,
especially those who have close trade relations with both countries. In this
case, China and the US are consecutively Indonesia’s top non-oil export
destination, while China ranks first in non-oil import and the US ranks fifth.
Hence, Indonesia poses a more significant risk from the ongoing trade war.
Export growth in June declined by 8.8 percent (YoY 7), on the other hand,
import is growing by 2.02 percent (YoY), this is partial result of the ongoing
US-China trade war. Although the trade war effect is likely going to be
sustained by domestic demand, weakening global growth and world trade
may pull down Indonesian exports and hence economic growth in the near
term8.
The US-China trade war is presumably far from over. Questions
regarding policies that should be seized by affected countries remains the
same; how to turn this phenomenon into opportunities. Therefore, this paper
aims to analyze the impact of US-China trade war as well as proposing
alternative action upon facing trade war in the context of economic diplomacy
implementation by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
6
International Monetary Fund, ‘World Economic Outlook Update: An Update of the Key WEO
Projections’,
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019 accessed
1 September 2019.
7 Year-on-year
8
Asian Development Bank. ‘Asian Development Outlook 2019: Strengthening Disaster
Resilience’, accessed 1 September 2019.
2
CHAPTER II
Definition of Terms and Concept
A. Economic Diplomacy in Indonesia
Economic diplomacy is decision-making and negotiation in core issues
9
affecting international economic relations. In practice, this means
international financial arrangements and coordination, negotiation of trade,
and investment, development and foreign environmental policies. One of the
most distinctive features of economic diplomacy is that it is sensitive to market
development. Furthermore, economic diplomacy has no single theory that can
provide on how states will conduct policy.10
Economic diplomacy is at the core of Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign
Affairs’ instrument. During the last five years, economic diplomacy is focused
on the removal of non-tariff barrier with the traditional market as well as
establishing a solid trade ground with prospective markets.11 Retno Marsudi,
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, conveyed that economic diplomacy is directed
to help Indonesia’s strategic industrial products and encourage various
investments and infrastructure projects in Indonesia abroad12. The ultimate
goal of economic diplomacy can, in turn, play a role in the efforts of getting
Indonesia out of the middle-income trap.
B. Trade War and Tariff Barrier
Tariff is the simplest form of trade policy used by countries through levying tax
to goods imported. Such a policy is a common practice to protect and develop
particular domestic sectors to encourage the replacement of imported
manufactures. This strategy is also known as import-substituting
9
Stephen Woolcock and Nicholas Bayne, The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy:
Economic Diplomacy, (United Kingdom: Oxford, 2013), p. 307.
10
Stephen Woolcock and Nicholas Bayne, The Oxford Handbook, p. 308.
11
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Indonesia, ‘Rencana Strategis 2015-2019 Kementerian Luar
Negeri Republik Indonesia’.
Conveyed by Retno L.P. Marsudi during Annual Press Statement 2019.
12
3
industrialization 13 . Import-substituting industrialization began to lose favor
when it became clear that countries pursuing protection of the manufacture
sector became uncompetitive.
Imposing tariff by one country in most cases would be followed by
retaliation of another, resulting in a tariff war. Generally, tariff war or trade war
is an economic phenomenon that happens between two sates or more by
adding trade barriers among them14. In the short run, tariffs are supposed to
give a competitive advantage to domestic producers. But in the long run, it
costs jobs and depresses economic growth for all countries involved. 15 In
conclusion, nobody wins in a trade war.
C. Export-Led Growth
Export-led growth is a paradigm that arose in the 1970s, arguing that
economic openness can push a country’s economic growth by focusing on
foreign markets. The big idea is that openness can help a country by
encouraging best practice adoption, promoting product development, and
exposing firms to competitions.16 According to economists, export-led growth
generates a favorable outcome for both developing and industrialized
economies. This has been explained through the principle of comparative
advantage, popularly attributed to English political economist David Ricardo.
Where principally by counting the opportunity cost to produce something, all
actors can mutually benefit from cooperation and trade.17
13
Paul R. Krugman, et. Al., International Economics: Theory and Policy Eleventh Edition,
(United Kingdom: Pearson, 2018), p. 312.
14
Windratmo, ‘Impact of Inter-Trade Disputes Between the United States and China Towards
Indonesia’s Export Opportunities’, 2018.
15
Kimberly Amadeo, ‘Trade Wars and their Effect on the Economy and You’,
https://www.thebalance.com/trade-wars-definition-how-it-affects-you-4159973, accessed 3
September 2019.
16
Thomas I. Palley, The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth, (Levy Economics Institute, 2011)
p. 3-4.
17
Paul R. Krugman, et. Al., ‘International Economics: Theory and Policy Eleventh Edition’, p.
316.
4
CHAPTER III
Analysis
A. US-China Trade War
Long before the trade war began, the current running US President Donald
Trump has tweeted several statements criticizing China’s trade practices.
Trump blames free trade on unequal benefits of trade and stagnant middle-
income wages. This narration is consistently reiterated during his Presidential
campaign and was oftentimes translated into a more nationalistic tale.
In general, the war consists of several different interrelated battles. The
first battle consists of solar panels and washing machines. The import of
washing machines and solar panels from abroad was found hurting the US
domestic manufacturer. As a result, Trump imposes tariffs on $8.5 billion on
imports of solar panels and $1.8 billions of washing machine. In turn, China
files a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute against US solar panel tariffs,
alleging that US tariffs have damaged China’s trade interest.
The second battle consists of steel and aluminum, in which the US is
dependent on external sources, claiming that it leads to a threat on US
national security. The US announces tariffs on all trading partners of 25
percent on steel and 10 percent in aluminum. China retaliates as they
imposed tariffs on aluminum waste and scrap, pork, fruits, nuts, and other US
products worth $2.4 billions export value in 2017. Subsequently, the US trade
representative files WTO challenges to five countries, including China as a
means to protect US national security interest.
The third battle consists of technology and intellectual property. The
US began to investigate whether China carried out activities that may be
harming the intellectual property rights, innovation, or technology
development of US companies. This move later followed by tariffs on up to
1,333 Chinese products under consideration for 25 percent tariffs. It didn’t
take long for China to threaten retaliation on US’ commodities including autos,
aircraft, and agriculture subject to 25 percent tariffs. The countries exchanged
tit for tat tariffs for over a year until both countries agreed to halt escalation
5
while they negotiate over trade concerns. Eventually, due to some
disagreement between two states, the deal can’t be reached as the US
renews tariff threats which followed by a rise in retaliatory tariffs.
Fourth battle marks on 23rd May 2018 upon another investigation
launched by the US. Following the steel and aluminum cases, the US
reportedly considered raising tariffs to 25 percent into imported autos and
parts. Currently, national security investigation under United States Trade
Representative (USTR) has until 13th November of 2019 to negotiate
agreements with trading countries.
B. US-China Trade War Impact on Indonesia
The US-China trade war is slowing down the world economy as it creates
an uncertainty climate. Aforementioned above, the IMF downgraded global
economic outlook to 3.2 percent in 2019 due to further increased tariffs on
certain Chinese imports from the US and vice versa. Moreover, World Bank
lowered the forecast to as low as 2.6 percent (0.3 percentage point below the
previous forecast), this growth pace is slightly below the pace observed during
the 2015-2016 trade slowdown, reflecting weaker-than-expected international
trade and investment at the start of the year. 18 In ASEAN-5’s case, the
economic projection is revised 0.1 percent lower than the initial forecast.
As a result of its increasing role in international trade and investment,
the slowdown in China’s economy will affect its trading partner tremendously.
For Southeast Asian countries, China accounts a total of 17 percent of its
trading activities as a whole, which consist of 14 percent export and 20
percent import of goods 19 . Moreover, both Indonesia’s export and import
share to China has doubled in the last ten years. Export rose from 8.48
percent in 2007 to 13.65 percent in 2017. On the other side, import grew from
18
World Bank Group, ‘Global Economic Prospects: Heightened Tensions, Subdued
Investment’,
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/31655/9781464813986.pdf,
accessed 4 June 2019.
19
The ASEAN Secretariat, ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2018 (Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat,
2018), p. 64.
6
11.49 percent to 21.93 percent.20 To further grasp Indonesia’s trade climate,
let us take a look of the graph below (Graph 1). Generally, Indonesia’s export
and import growth tend to be stable despite a spike in mid-2017. However,
after the imposition of tariffs from the US to China, there was a decline in
overall export and import growth.
Graph 1. Export Import Growth (yoy/%)
Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics, processed
Indirectly, as a result of the trade war between US and China, Indonesia may
be subject to potential investment relocation as well as trade diversion. On
investment relocation, Chinese companies or production capacity will
likely relocate to avoid the tariff levied by the US. As of 8 September 2019,
there are approximately 33 Chinese companies that relocated to another
country. Majority of these companies were electronics, clothing, furniture, as
well as footwear with Vietnam as the leading destination, followed by Malaysia,
Cambodia, and Thailand 21 . The World Bank noted several obstacles that
hindered foreign investment in Indonesia, such as a perception that Indonesia
is considered risky, complicated, and uncompetitive where regulations are
inconsistent. 22 Accordingly, Indonesia’s rank on Ease of Doing Business
(EoDB) is still far behind compared to other ASEAN countries (see appendix
20
World Integrated Trade Solution, ‘Indonesia Imports, Tariff by Country and Region 2017,
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/IDN/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partn
er/all/ accessed 8 September 2019.
21
Fika Nurul Ulya, ‘Tidak hany China, perusahaan Jepang dan Korea juga enggan lirik
Indonesia’, https://money.kompas.com/read/2019/09/06/105000526/tak-hanya-china-
perusahaan-jepang-dan-korea-juga-ogah-lirik-ri?page=all, accessed 9 September 2019.
22
Yosepha Pusparisa, ‘Nilai Minus Iklim Investasi Indonesia di Mata Bank Dunia’,
https://katadata.co.id/infografik/2019/09/19/nilai-minus-iklim-investasi-indonesia-di-mata-
bank-dunia, accessed 9 September 2019.
7
4). Nevertheless, in order to seize the opportunity, Indonesia must act swiftly
to facilitate investment relocation.23
On trade diversion, Indonesia’s GSP is under tight scrutiny by the USTR.
On the other hand, India is losing its GSP status as it has failed to persuade
Washington that it will provide “equitable and reasonable access” to its
markets.24 Although Indonesia has made a necessary step to ensure GSP
eligibility, it is safe to say that Indonesia still has a lot of room to increase
trade using GSP. However, it should be noted that trade intensification is not
only carried out by the Indonesian side but both parties because unbalanced
intensification can jeopardize Indonesia's trade with the US.
C. Optimizing Indonesia’s Opportunity on US-China Trade War
Climate
i. Assessment on Indonesia’s export opportunity
US-China trade war creates many new opportunities for Indonesia. By
becoming an alternative importer country, analysis of potential
substitution commodities should be carried out to evaluate Indonesia’s
opportunity further.
Graph 2. Concept of Mapping Exports in Counterparts Market
Value of goods Section 301/China’s
Breaking down imported by retaliation list
commodities subject counterparts
to tariffs based on
the commodity
Value of goods Generalized System
classification
imported by Preference
Indonesia
First and foremost, Indonesia needs to break down commodities
subject to tariffs, which helps provide an overview of commodity
23 World Bank Group, Doing Business 2019: Training for Reform, (Washington DC, 2019), p.
5.
24
Alex Fang, ‘US move to end India trade benefit rattles Indonesia and Thailand’,
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/US-move-to-end-India-trade-benefit-rattles-Indonesia-and-
Thailand, accessed 9 September 2019
8
opportunities in general (see appendix 3). However, as shown in
appendix 5, Indonesia’s potential relocation of trade may be negligible
due to its low degree of similarities of export baskets relatively to other
countries such as Thailand and Vietnam.25 It should be noted that these
number may represent a substantial share of export for Indonesia. By
comparing the value of goods imported by counterparts and Indonesia to
its trading partners based on the commodity classification previously
described, an overview of potential market share is obtained.
In this regard, Indonesia has the opportunity to be China’s immediate
substitution on several US products such as:
Immediate Indonesia’s Market Share China’s Market
Substitution (2018) % Share (2018) %
Clothing 5.4 33.2
Rubber Product 6.6 14.6
Footwear 5.8 53.2
Electronics 0.3 36.6
Furniture 1.3 52.8
Source: Indonesia’s Embassy for the United States26
Furthermore, Indonesia has the potential to export labor and
commodity-based products such as wood products, leather products,
various chemical products, as well as artificial flowers and feathers (see
appendix 6). Notably, in trade relations with the US, it is essential to note
that the increase in exports must be accompanied by an increase in
imports to avoid the withdrawal of GSP as in the case of India. Indonesia
needs to pay attention to the requirements that must be met to maintain
its GSP and continue to show the attitude that Indonesia is serious about
meeting its requirements. On the other hand, Indonesia has to push
great facilitation of export commodities to China such as palm oil, fresh
25 Calì Massimiliano, ‘The Impact of the US-China Trade War on East Asia’,
https://voxeu.org/article/impact-us-china-trade-war-east-asia, Accessed 20 September 2019
26 Indonesia’s Embassy for the United States’ letter to Chairman of the association of
entrepreneurs, 13 August 2019.
9
and packaged fruit, batteries, and electronic equipment. 27 Some other
consumer goods that exporters should consider were herbal products,
food and beverages, fashion as well as non-prescription drugs,
(including swallow’s nest, lavender essential, and durian).28
ii. Don’t put your egg in one basket: market diversification as a
tool to spread risk
On the long run, we need to pay attention to the non-traditional market
as a means to spread risks. When trading volume is too focused on a
certain market, it will make the market more vulnerable to external
shock. One way to see a potential market is by taking into account
export potential indicator, projected market share (supply side),
projected imports (demand side), as well as ease of trade.29
Graph 3. Concept of Market Diversification Analysis
Market
Potential
Export
Projected Projected
potential Ease of Trade
market share imports
indicator
Using this method, the analysis of the International Trade Center (ITC)
found that Indonesia has considerable trade opportunities to several
countries such as China, US, India, Malaysia, Philippines, and Germany.
As for the ASEAN region itself, Indonesia still has untapped potential in
several countries (see Appendix 1) namely Malaysia and Thailand.
27 Oratmangun, Djauhari. ‘Perang Dagang Amerika Serikat dan Tiongkok; Peluang dan
Tantangan Indonesia’, 2019.
28
Racmadea Aisyah, ‘Government urges companies to export more consumer goods to
China’, https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/07/15/government-urges-companies-to-
export-more-consumer-goods-to-china.html, accessed 22 September 2019
29
Export Potential Map. ‘Measuring Export Potential’,
https://exportpotential.intracen.org/#/resources-glossary#export-potential, accessed 11
September 2019
10
Various efforts made by the Foreign Ministry in opening non-traditional
includes organizing the Indonesia Africa Infrastructure Dialogue (IAID)
2019, encouraging the completion of negotiations between the
Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (I-EU
CEPA)30, and holding a bilateral meeting with various countries.
Arguably, Indonesia still has a significant potential in the trade area. As
an illustration, using export potential map by ITC we try to analyze
export potential countries in Latin America and Africa, it is found that the
five biggest potential markets are as follows:
Country Export Potential ($) Actual Exports ($)
Mexico 1.8 bn 1.0 bn
Brazil 1.6 bn 1.3 bn
Egypt 1.5 bn 979.5 mn
Nigeria 580.4 mn 393.3 mn
Argentina 408.1 mn 281.3 mn
Source: International Trade Centre (for further detail see appendix 2)
Subsequently, identification of commodity opportunities needs to be
done by taking into account the countries’ trade activities such as trade
volume to-and-from Indonesia, Indonesia’s share of imports, as well as
ease of trade.
Graph 4. Concept of Product Diversification Analysis
Trade activities
Assessment of Economic 1. Trade volume to and
potential market in Projections from Indonesia
the long run 2. Indonesia’s Share of
imports to total trade
of Counterparts’
3. Availability of trade
agreement
30 Ministryof Foreign Affairs of Indonesia, ‘Menlu Retno Dorong Peningkatan Perdagangan,
Investasi dan Pendidikan Indonesia-Hongaria’,
https://kemlu.go.id/portal/id/read/600/berita/menlu-retno-dorong-peningkatan-perdagangan-
investasi-dan-pendidikan-indonesia-hongaria, accessed 18 September 2019
11
CHAPTER IV
Conclusion and Recommendation
A. Conclusion
The ongoing tariff war between the two major countries managed to
attract global attention. In addition to reducing world economic growth,
trade war also has the potential to affect trading partners from both parties.
On the one hand, a trade war can slow the economic growth and the
trading activities of its partner countries. On the other hand, a trade war
can create new opportunities. Thus, this paper aims to elaborate on
Indonesia’s impact as well as an export opportunity.
As a country indirectly involved in trade wars, Indonesia has the
opportunity to become a producer of substitute goods to both countries. By
analyzing commodities subject to tariffs, Indonesia can utilize the
applicable GSP and accommodate substitute goods such as electronics,
furniture, and rubber products. Additionally, it is important to note that the
increase in exports must be accompanied by an increase in imports to
avoid the withdrawal of GSP. As of the case with the US, Indonesia has to
push greater trade facilitation towards China, especially palm oil, batteries,
electronic equipment, fresh and packaged fruit. Moreover, to reduce the
risk of similar disruption in the future, market diversification is needed in
the long run.
B. Recommendation
This paper seeks to provide recommendations upon optimizing the best
export opportunity in trade war climate. At the national level, the
recommendation as follows:
1. Improve Indonesia’s invest climate; Complex bureaucracy is the
main reason that hindered Indonesia off of the investment. Indonesia
needs to facilitate and speed up the licensing procedure (including the
national standard of Indonesia arrangement and import process for
12
export production) and simplify regulations, as well as making them
consistent.
2. Revise Indonesia’s negative investment list; Indonesia’s enacted
the negative investment list back in 2007 and was last revised in 2016.
This list needs to be reviewed regularly to boost investment in those
sectors that had stagnated.
Regarding the role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in carrying out economic
diplomacy, the author proposes several steps to be taken as follows:
1. Export potential mapping; In the short run, a mapping of exports to
both the US and China is needed to analyze possible substitute
commodities and the value that can be optimized by Indonesia.
2. Trade Diversification; In the long run, a trade diversification is needed
to spread risks among countries. Trade diversification encompasses
product diversification and export destination country. In its
development, Indonesia’s export destination country is centered on
several countries and product. Thus, making it more vulnerable
towards external shocks like the US-China trade war. Ministry of
Foreign Affairs needs to push the opening of new markets and promote
diversified commodities through Free Trade Agreement (FTA),
Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA), or Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (CEPA) to overcome export barriers thus making it more
competitive.
13
REFERENCES
Aisyah, Rachmadea. 2019. “Government urges companies to export more
consumer goods to China.”
Asian Development Bank. 2019. “ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2019
STRENGHTENING DISASTER RESILIENCE,” no. April.
Calì, Massimiliano. 2018. “The impact of the US-China trade war on East
Asia.” https://voxeu.org/article/impact-us-china-trade-war-east-asia.
Congressional Research Service. 2019. China’s Economic Rise: History,
Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States.
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33534.pdf.
Cotting, Ashleigh. 2018. “US-China trade war escalates as new round of
tariffs takes effect.”
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-
news-headlines/46624781.
Export Potential Map. 2019. “Measuring Export Potential.”
https://exportpotential.intracen.org/#/resources-glossary%23export-
potential.
Fang, Alex. 2019. “US Move to end India trade benefit rattles Indonesia and
Thailand.” https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/US-move-to-end-India-trade-
benefit-rattles-Indonesia-and-Thailand.
Indonesia Embassy to the United States. 2019. “Perang Dagang dan Peluang
Peningkatan Perdagangan dan Investasi Indonesia-AS”
Kimberly, Amadeo. 2019. “Trade Wars and their Effect on the Economy and
You.” https://www.thebalance.com/trade-wars-definition-how-it-affects-
you-4159973.
Krugman, Paul R., Maurice Obstfeld, dan Marc J. Melitz. 2018. International
Economics Theory and Policy. Eleventh E. Pearson Education Limited.
Palley, Thomas I. 2011. “The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth.”
Pangestu, Mari. 2019. “China – US trade War: an Indonesian perspective.”
China Economic Journal 12 (2). Routledge: 208–30.
doi:10.1080/17538963.2019.1611084.
Siregar, Mahendra. 2019. “Perang Dagang, GSP dan Potensi Peningkatan
Dagang RI-AS.”
iii
The ASEAN Secretariat. 2018. Asean Statistical Yearbook 2018. Jakarta.
The Balance. 2019. “US Debt to China, How Much It Is, Reasons Why, and
What if China Sells.” https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-
much-does-it-own-3306355.
The World Bank. 2019. “DOING BUSINESS 2019: Training for Reform.”
Washington DC.
The World Bank. 2019. Global Economic Prospects.
The World Bank. 2019. “The World Bank in China.”
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview.
Ulya, Fika Nurul. 2019. “Tidak hany China, perusahaan Jepang dan Korea
juga enggan lirik Indonesia.”
https://money.kompas.com/read/2019/09/06/105000526/tak-hanya-china-
perusahaan-jepang-dan-korea-juga-ogah-lirik-ri?page=all.
Windratmo. 2018. “Impact of Inter-Trade Disputes between the United States
and China towards Indonesia’s Export Opportunities.”
Woolcock, Stephen, dan Nicholas Bayne. 2013. “Economic Diplomacy.” In the
Oxford Handbooks of Modern Diplomacy, 1–12. Oxford University Press.
doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199588862.013.0022.
World Economic Outlook. 2019. “Still Sluggish Global Growth.” Washington.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdate
July2019.
World Integrated Trade Solution. 2017. “Indonesia Imports, Tariff by Country
and Region.”
iv
APPENDIX
APPENDIX 1
v
APPENDIX 2
vi
APPENDIX 3
source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
vii
APPENDIX 4
Ease of Doing Business 2018
source: The World Bank Group, 2019
APPENDIX 5
Degree of similarities of export baskets to the US with China for affected
products (index of correlation at HS-8 digit)
source: VOX XEPR Policy Portal, 2018
viii
APPENDIX 6
US-China Trade War Opportunities
source: Indonesia’s Embassy for the United States
ix
