MATH SL

EXERCISES 5.4-5.7 SOLUTIONS

PROBABILITY
Compiled by: Christos Nikolaidis

A. Practice Questions

1.
n(A) 15 n(B ) 25 n( A ∩ B ) 10
n( A′) 35 n(B ' ) 25 n( A ∪ B ) 30
n ( A′ ∩ B ) 15 n( A ∩ B ' ) 5 n( A′ ∩ B ′) 20
n ( A′ ∪ B ) 45 n( A ∪ B ' ) 35 n( A′ ∪ B ′) 40

P ( A) 15/50 P ( A′) 35/50 P( A ∪ B) 30/50

P ( A'∩ B ) 15/50 P ( A'∪ B ) 45/50 P ( B '∪ A) 35/50
P( A | B) 10/25 P ( A' | B) 15/25 P ( B ' | A) 5/15
P ( B | A) 10/15 P( A | B' ) 5/25 P ( A' | B' ) 20/25

2.
P ( A) 0.5 P ( A′) 50 P( A ∩ B) 0.2
P( A ∪ B) 0.9 P ( A'∩ B ) 0.4 P ( A'∪ B ) 0.7
P( A | B) 1/3 P ( A' | B) 2/3 P ( B ' | A) 3/5
P ( B | A) 2/5 P( A | B' ) 3/4 P ( A' | B' ) 1/4

3.
P (Boy ) 30/80 P (Group C ) 15/80
P ( Boy and Group C ) 10/80 P ( Boy or Group C ) 35/80
P ( Boy | Group C ) 10/15 P (Group C | Boy ) 10/30
P ( Boy | NOT Group C ) 20/65 P ( NOT Group C | Boy ) 20/30

4. The four scenarios have probabilities 0.18, 0.12, 0.14, 0.56

(a)
P ( A) 0.3 P ( A′) 0.7 P( A ∩ B) 0.18

P ( A ∩ B ′) 0.12 P ( A′ ∩ B ) 0.14 P ( A′ ∩ B ′) 0.56

(b)
P (B ) 0.32 P (B ' ) 0.68 P( A ∪ B) 0.44

(c)
P ( B | A) 0.6 P ( B ′ | A) 0.4 P ( B | A′) 0.2 P ( B ′ | A′) 0.8

(d)
P( A | B) 0.18/0.32
5. (a) P ( A) = 0.5 P ( A ∪ B ) = 0.7 (b) x = 0 . (c) x = 0.2 (d) x = 0.3 (e) x = 0.1

1
B. Past Paper Questions (SHORT)

6. (a) U

B
A

(A1) (C1)
(b) n(A ∪ B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A ∩ B)
65 = 30 + 50 – n(A ∩ B)
⇒ n(A ∩ B) = 15 (may be on the diagram) (M1)
n(B ∩ A′) = 50 – 15 = 35 (A1) (C2)
n( B ∩ A′) 35
(c) P(B ∩ A′) = = = 0.35 (A1) (C1)
n(U ) 100
[4]
7. (a)

A B

(A1) (C1)
(b) (i) n(A ∩ B) = 2 (A1) (C1)
2  1
(ii) P(A ∩ B) =  or  (allow ft from (b)(i)) (A1) (C1)
36  18 
(c) n(A ∩ B) ≠ 0 (or equivalent) (R1) (C1)
[4]
19
8. (a) (= 0.158) A1 N1
120
(b) 35 − (8 + 5 + 7)(= 15) (M1)
15  3 1 
Probability = = = = 0.125  A1 N2
120  24 8 
(c) Number studying = 76 (A1)
Number not studying = 120 − number studying = 44 (M1)
44  11 
Probability = = = 0.367  A1 N3
120  30 
[6]
9. (a) p(A ∩ B) = 0.6 + 0.8 – 1= 0.4 (M1) (A1) (C2)
(b) p(A’ ∪ B') = p((A ∩ B)΄) = 1 – 0.4= 0.6 (M1) (A1) (C2)
[4]
20 1
10. (a) P(PC) = = A1 A1 N1
20 + 40 3
30 1
(b) P(PC′) = = A1A1 N1
30 + 60 3
(c) Investigating conditions, or some relevant calculations (M1)
P is independent of C, with valid reason A1 N2
[6]

2
11. (a)
Boy Girl Total
TV 13 25 38
Sport 33 29 62
Total 46 54 100
38
P(TV) = (A1) (C2)
100
13
(b) P(TV | Boy) = (= 0.283 to 3 sf) (A2) (C2)
46
Notes: Award (A1) for numerator and (A1) for denominator. Accept equivalent answers.
[4]
12. (a)
Males Females Totals
Unemployed 20 40 60
Employed 90 50 140
Totals 110 90 200
Note: Award (A1) if at least 4 entries are correct. Award (A2) if all 8 entries are correct.
40 1
(b) (i) P(unemployed female) = = (A1)
200 5
90 9
(ii) P(male I employed person) = = (A1)
140 14
[4]
13. (a) 46/97 (= 0.474) A1A1 N2
(b) 13/51(=0.255) A1A1 N2
(c) 59/97=0.608 A2 N2
[6]
9 5 2 4+ 2+3+3
14. (a) (i) correct calculation e.g. + − , (A1)
20 20 20 20
12  3 
P(male or tennis) = =  A1 N2
20  5 
6 11 3 + 3
(ii) correct calculation e.g. ÷ , (A1)
20 20 11
6
P(not football | female) = A1 N2
11
11 10
(b) P(first not football) = , P(second not football) = A1
20 19
11 10
P(neither football) = × A1
20 19
110  11 
P(neither football) = =  A1 N1
380  38 
[7]
120  1 
15. (a)  = = 0.333  (A1)(A1) (C2)
360  3 
90 + 120  210 7 
(b) = = = 0.583  (A2) (C2)
360  360 12 
90  3   1 
 = = 0.429   Accept 
4
(c) (A1)(A1) (C2)
210  7  
7
12 
[6]

3
16. (a) Independent (I) (C2)
(b) Mutually exclusive (M) (C2)
(c) Neither (N) (C2)
Note: Award part marks if the candidate shows understanding
of I and/or M
eg I P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B) (M1)
M P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) (M1)
[6]
17. (a) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B) (M1)
1 3 7 3
P(A ∩ B) = + − = (A1) (C2)
2 4 8 8
 3
 
P( A ∩ B)  8  1
(b) P(AB) = = = (M1) (A1) (C2)
P( B)  3  2
 
 4
(c) Yes, the events are independent (A1) (C1)
EITHER
P(AB) = P(A) (R1) (C1)
OR
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B) (R1) (C1)
[6]
18. (a) Independent ⇒ P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) (= 0.3 × 0.8) (M1)
= 0.24 A1 N2
(b) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) (= 0.3 + 0.8 − 0.24) M1
= 0.86 A1 N1
(c) No, with valid reason A2 N2
eg P(A ∩ B) ≠ 0 or P(A ∪ B) ≠ P(A) + P(B) or correct
numerical equivalent
[6]

19. (a) For attempting to use the formula (P(E ∩ F) = P(E)P(F)) (M1)
Correct substitution or rearranging the formula A1
1
1 2 P (E ∩ F )
eg = P(F), P(F) = , P(F) = 3
3 3 P (E ) 2
3
1
P(F) = A1 N2
2
(b) For attempting to use the formula (P(E ∪ F) = P(E) + P(F) − (P(E ∩ F)) (M1)
P(E ∪ F) = + − = (= 0.833)
2 1 1 5
A1A1 N2
3 2 3 6
[6]
3
20. (a) A1 N1
4
(b) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) (M1)
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∪ B)
2 3 7 11
= + − = (0.275) A1A1 N2
5 4 8 40
 11 
P( A ∩ B)  40  11
(c) P(A  B) = = = (0.367) A1A1 N1
P( B)  3  30
 
 4 
[6]

4
21. (a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) (= 0.6x) A1 N1
(b) (i) evidence of using P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A)P(B) (M1)
correct substitution e.g. 0.80 = 0.6 + x – 0.6x, 0.2 = 0.4x A1
x = 0.5 A1 N2
(ii) P(A ∩ B) = 0.3 A1 N1
(c) valid reason, with reference to P(A ∩ B) R1 N1
e.g. P(A ∩ B) ≠ 0
[6]
22. For using P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) (M1)
Let P(A) = x then P(B) = 3x
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × 3P(A) (= 3x2) (A1)
0.68 = x + 3x − 3x2 (A1)
3x2 − 4x + 0.68 = 0
x = 0.2 ( x = 1.133, not possible) (A2)
P(B) = 3x = 0.6 (A1) (C6)
[6]
23. (a) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B) ⇒ P (A ∩ B) = P (A) +
P (B) – P (A ∪ B) (M1)
3 4 6 1
= + – = (0.0909) (M1) (A1) (C3)
11 11 11 11
(b) For independent events, P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B) (M1)
3 4 12
= × = (0.0992) (A1) (A1) (C3)
11 11 121
[6]
24. Total number of possible outcomes = 36 (may be seen anywhere) (A1)
6
(a) P ( E ) = P (1,1) + P (2, 2) + P (3, 3) + P (4, 4) + P (5, 5) + P (6, 6) = (A1) (C2)
36
3
(b) P ( F ) = P (6, 4) + P (5, 5) + P (4, 6) = (A1) (C1)
36
(c) P ( E ∪ F ) = P (E) + P (F ) − P (E ∩ F )
1
P (E ∩ F ) = (A1)
36
6 3 1  8 2 
P(E ∪ F ) = + − = = , 0.222  (M1)(A1) (C3)
36 36 36  36 9 
[6]
25. Sample space ={(1, 1), (1, 2) ... (6, 5), (6, 6)}
(This may be indicated in other ways, e.g, a grid or a tree diagram, partly or fully completed)
6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 +1 7
(a) P (S < 8) = = (M1)(A1)
36 12
7
OR P (S < 8) = (A2)
12
1 + 1 + 6 + 1 + 1 + 1 11
(b) P (at least one 3) = = (M1)(A1)
36 36
11
OR P (at least one 3) = (A2)
36
P(at least one 3 ∩ S < 8)
(c) P (at least one 3S < 8) = (M1)
P (S < 8 )
7
1
= 36 = (A1)(A1)
7 3
12
[7]

5
26. (a)
6, 6 1
6
1 36
–
6
6
1
–
6 5
–
6 5
not 6 6, not 6
36
not 6, 6 5
6
1 36
–
5 6
–
6 not 6
5
–
6 25
not 6 not 6, not 6
36
(M2) (C2)
1 5
Notes: Award (M1) for probabilities , correctly entered on diagram.
6 6
Award (M1) for correctly listing the outcomes 6, 6; 6 not 6; not 6, 6; not 6, not 6,
or the corresponding probabilities.
1 1 1 5 5 1  5 5
(b) P(one or more sixes) = × + × + × or 1 − ×  (M1)
6 6 6 6 6 6  6 6
11
= (A1) (C2)
36
[4]
27. (a)
0.6

0.4 0.4

0.6 0.5

0.5
(A1) (C1)
(b) P(B) = 0.4(0.6) + 0.6 (0.5) = 0.24 + 0.30 (M1)
= 0.54 (A1) (C2)
P( B ∩ C ) 0.24 4
(c) P(CB) = = = (= 0.444, 3 sf) (A1) (C1)
P( B) 0.54 9
[4]
28. (a)
3/9 A

A
4/10
6/9
B

4/9 A
6/10
B

5/9
B
A1A1A1 N3
 4 6   6 4  48  8 
(b)  × + ×  =  , 0.533 M1M1A1 N1
 10 9   10 9  90  15 
[6]

6
29. (a)
Grows
0.9

Red
0.4

0.1 Does not grow

Grows
0.8

0.6
Yellow

0.2 Does not grow

(A3) (N3) 3
(b) (i) 0.4 × 0.9 = 0.36 (A1)(A1)(N2)
(ii) 0.36 + 0.6 × 0.8 (= 0.36 + 0.48) = 0.84 (A1)(A1)(N1)
P(red ∩ grows) 0.36  3
(iii) (may be implied) = = 0.429   (M1)(A1)(A1) (N2) 7
P(grows) 0.84 7
[10]
30. (a)

(A1)(A1)(A1)
1 4  4 
(b) (i) P(R ∩ S) = ×  = = 0.267  (A1) (N1)
3 5  15 
1 4 2 1 13
(ii) P(S) = × + × = (= 0.433) (A1)(A1)(A1) (N3)
3 5 3 4 30
4
8
(iii) P(R S) = 15 = (= 0.615) (A1)(A1)(A1) (N3)
13 13
30
[10]
 13   12   11   10 
31. Correct probabilities   ,   ,   ,   (A1)(A1)(A1)(A1)
 24   23   22   21 
 13 12 11 10 
Multiplying  × × ×  (M1)
 24 23 22 21 
17160  65 
P(4 girls) = = = 0.0673 (A1) (C6)
255024  966 
[6]

7
32. (a)
1
4 L

7
W
8
3
4 L'
3
5 L
1
8
W'
2
5 L' (A1)(A1)(A1)(A1) 4
 7 1 3
Note: Award (A1) for the given probabilities  , ,  in the
8 4 5
correct positions, and (A1) for each bold value.
7 1 1 3 47
(b) Probability that he will be late is × + × = (0.294) (A1)(A1)(A1) (N2) 3
8 4 8 5 160
P(W ∩ L)
(c) P(WL) =
P( L)
7 1 47
P(W ∩ L) = × P(L) = (A1) (A1)
8 4 160
7
35
P(WL) = 32 = (= 0.745) (M1)(A1)(N3) 4
47 47
160
[11]
7 6 7 
33. P(RR) = × =  (M1)(A1)
12 11  22 
5 4 5
P(YY) = × =  (M1)(A1)
12 11  33 
31
P (same colour) = P(RR) + P(YY) = (= 0.470, 3 sf) (M1)(A1) (C6)
66
2 2
7  5 74
Note: Award C2 for   +   = .
 12   12  144
[6]
22
34. (a) P= (= 0.957 (3 sf)) (A2) (C2)
23
(b)
R
21 3
24 23

R
G
22
25

etc
3
25
G
(M1)

8
 OR
P = P (RRG) + P (RGR) + P (GRR) (M1)
22 21 3 22 3 21 3 22 21
× × + × × + × × (M1)(A1)
25 24 23 25 24 23 25 24 23
693
= (= 0.301 (3 sf)) (A1) (C4)
2300
[6]
35. P(different colours) = 1 – [P(GG) + P(RR) + P(WW)] (M1)
 10 9 10 9 6 5 
=1–  × + × + ×  (A1)
 6 25 26 25 26 25 
 210  44
=1–  = (= 0.677, to 3 sf) (A1)(A1) (C4)
 650  65
OR
P(different colours) = P(GR) + P(RG) + P(GW) + P(WG) + P(RW) + P(WR) (A1)
 10 6   10 10 
= 4 ×  + 2 ×  (A1)(A1)
 26 25   26 25 
44
= (= 0.677, to 3 sf) (A1) (C4)
65
[4]
C. Past Paper Questions (LONG)

36. (a)
U(88)
E(32) H(28)

a b c

39

n (E ∪ H) = a + b + c = 88 – 39 = 49 (M1)
n (E ∪ H) = 32 + 28 – b = 49
60 – 49 = b = 11 (A1)
a = 32 – 11 = 21 (A1)
c = 28 – 11 = 17 (A1) 4
Note: Award (A3) for correct answers with no working.

11 1
(b) (i) P(E ∩ H) = = (A1)
88 8
21
P(H '∩ E ) 88
(ii) P(H′E) = = (M1)
P( E ) 32
88
21
= (= 0.656) (A1)
32
OR
21
Required probability = (A1)(A1) 3
32

9
 56 × 55 × 54
(c) (i) P(none in economics) = (M1)(A1)
88 × 87 × 86
= 0.253 (A1)
3
 56 
Notes: Award (M0)(A0)(A1)(ft) for   = 0.258.
 88 
56 × 55 × 54
Award no marks for .
88 × 88 × 88

(ii) P(at least one) = 1 – 0.253 (M1)

= 0.747 (A1)
OR
 32 56 55   32 31 56  32 31 30
3 × ×  + 3 × ×  + × × (M1)
 88 87 86   88 87 86  88 87 86
= 0.747 (A1) 5
[12]
37. (a) P(F ∪ S) = 1 − 0.14 (= 0.86) (A1)
Choosing an appropriate formula (M1)
eg P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
Correct substitution
eg P(F ∩ S) = 0.93 − 0.86 A1
P(F ∩ S) = 0.07 AG N0
Notes: There are several valid approaches. Award
(A1)(M1)A1 for relevant working using any
appropriate strategy eg formula, Venn
Diagram, or table.
Award no marks for the incorrect solution
P(F ∩ S) = 1 − P(F) + P(S) = 1 − 0.93 = 0.07
(b) Using conditional probability (M1)
 P (F ∩ S ) 
eg P(F | S)  = 
 P ( S ) 
0.07
P(F | S) = (A1)
0.62
= 0.113 A1 N3

(c) F and S are not independent A1 N1

EITHER
If independent P(F | S) = P(F), 0.113 ≠ 0.31 R1R1 N2
OR
If independent P(F ∩ S) = P(F) P(S), 0.07 ≠ 0.31 × 0.62 (= 0.1922) R1R1 N2

(d) Let P(F) = x

P(S) = 2P(F) (= 2x) (A1)
For independence P(F ∩ S) = P(F)P(S) (= 2x2) (R1)
Attempt to set up a quadratic equation (M1)
eg P(F ∪ S) = P(F)P(S) − P(F)P(S), 0.86 = x + 2x − 2x2
2x2 − 3x + 0.86 = 0 A2
x = 0.386, x = 1.11 (A1)
P(F) = 0.386 (A1) N5
[16]

10
38. (a)
3
R
5

M
1
3
2
5 G
2
R
10
2
3
N

8
10 G
A1A1A1 N3

1 2 2
(b) (i) P(M and G) = × (= = 0.133) A1 N1
3 5 15
1 2 2 8
(ii) P(G) = × + × (A1)(A1)
3 5 3 10
10  2 
=  = = 0.667  A1 N3
15  3 
2
P( M ∩ G ) 15
(iii) P(M  G) = = (A1)(A1)
P(G ) 2
3
1
= or 0.2 A1 N3
5
2 1
(c) P(R) = 1 − = (A1)
3 3
Evidence of using a correct formula M1
1 2  1 3 2 2 1 2 2 8
E(win) = 2 × + 5 ×  or 2 × × + 2 × × + 5 × × + 5 × ×  A1
3 3  3 5 3 10 3 5 3 10 
 12 60 
= $4  accept ,  A1 N2
 3 15 
[14]

11
 80  8 
39. (a) (i) P ( A) = =  = 0.381 (A1) (N1)
210  21 

35  1 
(ii) P (year 2 art) = =  = 0.167  (A1) (N1)
210  6 

(iii) No (the events are not independent, or, they are dependent) (A1) (N1)
EITHER
P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) × P( B ) (to be independent) (M1)
100  10 
P ( B) == = 0.476  (A1)
210  21 
1 8 10
≠ × (A1)
6 21 21

OR
P(A)=P(A B ) (to be independent) (M1)
35
P (A B) = (A1)
100
8 35
≠ (A1)
21 100
OR
P (B )=P (B A) (to be independent) (M1)
100  10  35
P ( B) = = = 0.476  , P(B A) = (A1)
210  21  80
35 100
≠ (A1) 6
80 210
Note: Award the first (M1) only for a mathematical
interpretation of independence.

(b) n (history) = 85 (A1)

50  10 
P (year 1 history) = =  = 0.588  (A1) (N2) 2
85  17 

 110 100   100 110   110 100 

(c)  × + ×   = 2× ×  (M1)(A1)(A1)
 210 209   210 209   210 209 
200
= ( = 0.501) (A1) (N2) 4
399
[12]

12