PROGRESS TEST 2

Time: 40 mins
Read the following passage and answer the questions that follow:

THE RISKINESS OF EVERYDAY LIFE

1 Taken any risks today? When you read that question, you probably thought about running
across a busy street, skydiving, or driving too fast. But the reality is that all of us have taken
dozens of risks in the last 24 hours—it’s just that they didn’t seem like it. For example, if you
took a shower, there was a risk of slipping and either breaking a bone or dying. A small risk, you
think, but how many times have you taken a shower? ---[1]---

2 Jared Diamond, a professor of geography at the University of California, has been analyzing
this type of risk. As part of his research, he spent time in New Guinea, where he noticed that the
local people were very risk averse. For example, they refused to sleep under a dead tree,
despite the fact that it looked perfectly strong. Further investigation made their reasons clear:
There was a slight chance, perhaps a one in a thousand chance, that it would fall and kill them.
The odds were negligible, but upon further analysis, Diamond realized that trees did fall, and
that the people regularly slept under trees. If they did so a thousand times with a one in a
thousand chance of the tree falling, they could become part of the death statistics. His thoughts
turned to showers as a result of this insight. As a 75-year-old with a life expectancy of 90 years,
he calculated that he could expect to have more than 5,000 more showers in his life. If the
chances of having a fall were less than one in 5,000, he had better be extra careful! ---[2]---

3 Diamond called this type of fear “constructive paranoia”—in other words, a useful fear of
something that would not usually make one fearful. It is an interesting notion, and one that
affects us all. After all, almost everything carries a risk, as statistics show. Many countries have
risks that are particular to them; for example, in Spain there is a statistical risk of being hit by a
plant, probably a geranium, falling from a balcony. ---[3]---

4 There is, of course, a problem with constructive paranoia—at what point do we stop worrying
and start living? If everything has a risk involved, we are in danger of becoming so scared that
we would not leave our homes. Diamond is not in favor of such genuine paranoia. His point is
that we make poor decisions about risk, tending to believe, as a result of media coverage, that
some things are dangerous when they are in fact extremely low-risk. He cites the example of
plane crashes, which are spectacular but highly unlikely to affect us, compared to poor driving,
which carries a far higher risk, yet one that many people are happy to take. ---[4]---

5 So, yes, we have taken risks today, inevitably. The world is a dangerous place. However, it
may not be plane crashes we should fear, but the stairs in our own home.

Questions 1 - 6

Choose from the letter A, B, C or D that corresponds to the correct answer.

1. What does the writer ask the reader to consider?

A. whether to go skydiving
 B. whether the reader has been at risk today
C. whether the reader doesn’t take enough risks
D. whether showers should not be taken

2. “Risk-averse” means __________.

A. experiencing a lot of risk in life
B. not minding putting yourself at risk
C. not wanting to take risks
D. trying to understand daily risks

3. What does the shower example show?

A. that a repeated daily risk means the overall chance of accident increases
B. that older people are more at risk from falling than younger ones
C. that people need to take fewer showers to cut the risk they pose
D. that bathrooms are the most dangerous place in the house

4. What point does the example about Spain make?

A. Plants are very dangerous in public places.
B. Spain is a much riskier place overall than other countries.
C. No one was concerned about this type of risk in the past.
D. Different countries have different everyday risks.

5. What does Diamond believe to be a major factor in incorrect risk assessment?

A. the way people drive carelessly on roads
B. the way accidents are reported in the media
C. the way most people do not like taking risks
D. the way most people do not mind flying

6. In which position marked [1], [2], [3] and [4] does the following sentence best belong?
“This risk does not exist in countries that do not favor that type of decoration.”
A. [1]
B. [2]
C. [3]
D. [4]

Questions 7 - 11

Write NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS FROM THE PASSAGE in each blank.

1. Diamond, professor of geography, University of California New Guinea, noticed local

people wouldn’t sleep under ______________ with a small (approx. 1 in 1,000) chance
of tree falling.
2. Conclusion, this was a ____________ because the people often slept under trees, so
the probability of an accident would be high.
 3. Observations led to a reassessment of common, everyday risks. Used the example of a
shower. He can expect to have more than 5,000 more showers in his life, so he needs to
reduce his risk of a fall to _________________1 in 5,000.
4. Defines this as usefully fearing something common. Problem is this could lead to being
overly ______________.
5. We should ______________. risks appropriately making sure we don’t fear things that
pose very little danger, and that we do consider commonplace things that carry a risk
when repeated day in, day out.

===
Read the following passage and answer the questions that follow:
PREDICTING THE WEATHER
Will we ever be able to predict the weather accurately a year in advance? There are many
reasons why it would be useful to be able to predict the weather in this way, and it would be
extremely lucrative for anyone who was able to do so. Tourism, agriculture, and construction are
just three of the industries which would benefit; for example, drinks manufacturers sell
significantly more of their products on hot days. Yet despite the potential benefits and huge
resources that have been, and continue to be, pumped into weather forecasting, accuracy of
predictions decreases rapidly after just one or two days – and after five days it is all but lost.
The traditional way to predict weather is to collect data on the current weather at a particular
location (the temperature, humidity, air pressure, and wind speed are key variables) and then
plot the data. Using this information, computer models are run to see what might be expected.
The operators are still very much involved; they look for trends and patterns, using their
experience alongside the computerized predictions. They may know, for example, that in the
United States the weather tends to move from the west to the east, so looking west may give
some clues as to the upcoming weather in the east.
However, predicting the weather in this way is doomed to failure in the long term because of a
phenomenon known as the “butterfly principle,” also known to scientists as the chaotic variable.
A system as complex as the Earth’s weather, driven by the energy from the sun and operating
in an ever-changing environment, is subject to millions of changes every instant, ranging from
the tiny (a butterfly’s beating wings) to the huge (a volcanic eruption). A combination of these
events has the power to render predictions beyond a week ahead totally inaccurate.
Now, however, a new approach is being used with some success by at least one company.
Weather Trends International runs a computer algorithm of more than five million lines of
computer code, which is based on a huge amount of historical weather information. The
company sells its predictions for the weather up to a year in advance to the retail,
manufacturing, and financial services, and to other interested sectors. While their predictions
are not yet completely reliable, the fact that some of the biggest names in retailing are prepared
to pay for and act on the predictions is an indication that this approach may be the future of
weather forecasting. It is unlikely, though, that we will ever gain 100% accuracy in this most
complex of areas.
QUESTIONS 1 – 7:
Choose the best answer (A, B, C or D) for each of the following questions:
1. What kind of days would a drinks manufacturing company benefit from knowing about?
A. wet
B. long
C. hot
D. cold
2. What are the two reasons why people might think predictions should be more accurate now?
A. people’s interest in the weather and the number of weather programs on TV
B. the power of computers and the globalization of information about the weather
C. the money spent on predictions and the benefits of having good predictions
D. the number of scientists studying weather and the environmental issues we face
3. How are trends in the weather identified?
A. scientists study butterflies
B. computers report them directly to companies
C. people watch television to see them
D. people in the profession look for them
4. What makes it difficult or impossible to predict the weather in the long-term?
A. the many the environmental changes happening all the time
B. not having enough money to run the computers
C. scientists not being interested enough in conducting the research
D. the number of volcanic eruptions happening around the world
5. How is the range of changes which affects the weather categorized?
A. very wet to very dry
B. very hot to very cold
C. very small to very big
D. very windy to very still
6. What is Weather Trends International doing differently?
A. using a different type of computer
B. working with newly qualified scientists
C. using large amounts of data from the past
D. paying companies lots of money for information
7. What do we know about the predictions from Weather Trends International?
A. They are never accurate and companies don’t want them.
B. They are not always correct but companies pay for them.
C. They are bought from some of the biggest names in retailing.
D. They are almost 100% accurate one year ahead of time.
QUESTIONS 8 - 11:
Fill in each blank with NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS from the passage:
8. Weather prediction is difficult to do ______________ for anything more than a few days in
advance.
9. Many industries would ______________ from long-term prediction, but up to now these have
not been possible.
10. Forecasters use data about temperature, humidity, air pressure and wind __________ to
make predictions.
11. Often, however, these predictions fail because of what scientists call the_____________.