NAME: JUMARLEN A.

BARRERA
PROF:

PROBLEM SET IN PROBALITY

THEORY OF PROBABILITY
1. In a pair of dice is rolled, what is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11?

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 ( 2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 ( 3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 ( 4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 ( 5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 ( 6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

getting a total of 7 = (6,1) , (5,2),(4,3) , ( 3,4) , (2,5) , ( 1 , 6 )

6 1
Probability of getting a total of 7 is ∨
36 6
Getting a total of 11 = ( 6,5) , (5,6)
2 1
Probability of getting a total of 7 is ∨
36 18
1 1 1
Therefore the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 is + =
6 18 18

2. In drawing from a deck of cards, what is the probability of drawing: a) King or Queen; b) a spade or heart?
a.
There are 52 cards in deck with 4 Kings and 4 Queens.
Let K be the number of Kings
Q be the number of Queens
4 1
P (K ) = =
52 13
4 1
P (Q) = =
52 13
1 1 2
P(K) + P(Q) = + =
13 13 13

b.
In a deck of cards there 13 spade and 13 hearts
Let S = the number od spade in a deck of cards
H = the number of heart in a deck of cards
13 1
P( S) = =
52 4
 13 1
P( H) = =
52 4
1 1 2 1
P(S) + P (H) = + = =
4 4 4 2

3. Three balls are drawn successively from a box containing 6 red balls, 4 white balls and 5 black balls. Find
the probability that they are drawn in the order: RW and B if each ball drawn is not replaced?
There are 15 balls in all inside the box.
The ball will be drawn randomly without replacement. So, we have

6
∗4
15
∗5
14 4
=
13 91

4
Therefore, the probability of getting a ball in order without replacement is .
91

BAYES LAW
1. In a certain assembly plant, three machines B1, B2, B3 , make 30% , 45% and 25 % respective products. It is
known from past experiences that 2 % , 3% and 2% of the products made by each machine respectively are
defective. Now supposed that a finished product is randomly selected, what is the probability that it is
defective?
Answer:
Let event A = the product selected is defective.
Let B1 = the product was made by machine B1.
Let B2= the product was made by machine B2.
Let B3 = the product was made by B3.

We have ,
P(A) = P ( B1) * P (A|B1) + P (B2) *P (A|B2) + P(B3)*P(A|B3)
= (0.30) (0.02) + (0.45)(0.03)+ (0.25)(0.02)
= 0.006 + 0.0135+ 0.05
 = 0.0245

1. In a certain region of a country , it is known from past experiences that the probability of selecting an
adult over 40 years of age with cancer is 0.05. If the probability of a doctor correctly diagnosing a
person with cancer as having the disease is 0.78 , and the probability of incorrectly diagnosing a person
without cancer as having the disease is 0.06, what is the probability that a person is diagnosed as
having a cancer?

Let C the probability of selecting an adult over 40 years of age with cancer.

P (C) = 0.05

C’ represents the event that the person does not have a cancer.
P( C’) = 1 – 0.05 = 0.95

Let D be the event that a person is diagnosed with cancer.

Then the probability of a doctor correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as having the
disease:
P ( D|C) = 0.78

The probability of incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as having the disease is 0.06.

* Probability that an adult over 40 years of age is diagnosed as having a cancer

P(D) = P( D|C) * P(C ) + P (D|C’)*P(C’)
= ( 0.78 * 0.05 ) + ( 0.06 * 0.95 )
= 0.096
2. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at 4 different locations within the city limits.
The radar traps at each location L1, L2 , L3 and L4 are operated at 40% , 30% , 20% and 30% of the time
and if the person who is speeding on his way to work has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5 and 0.2
respectively of passing through these locations, what is the probability that he will receive speeding
ticket?

Finding the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket at location L1:

The probability that he will pass through location L1 is 0.2.

To receive a speeding ticket person need to pass through it an time, when radar trap is operate, so it’s
probability 0.4.

So, base on independent of those events joint probability is

𝑃(𝐿1) = 0.2 ∙ 0.4 = 0.08.
𝑃(𝐿2) = 0.1 ∙ 0.3 = 0.03
𝑃(𝐿3) = 0.5 ∙ 0.2 = 0.1
𝑃(𝐿4) = 0.2 ∙ 0.3 = 0.06
 Joint probability is the sum of 𝑃 = 𝑃(𝐿1) + 𝑃(𝐿2) + 𝑃(𝐿3) + 𝑃(𝐿4)
So we have,
𝑃 = 0.08 + 0.03 + 0.1 + 0.06 = 0.27
Therefore the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket by passing through these locations is 0.27.

PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

1. How many dinners are possible consisting of soup , a sandwich , dessert and a drink if one can select
from 4 soups , 3 kinds of sandwiches , 5 desserts , and 4 drinks?
4 * 3 * 5 * 4 = 240
Ans. 240 dinners
2. A box contains 8 red, 3 white and 9 blue balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random without replacement,
determine the probability that a) all 3 are red, b) all 3 are white, c) 2 are red and 1 is blue, d) at least 1
is white, e) 1 of each color is drawn, and f) the balls are drawn in the order: red, white, blue.

a. C ( 8, 3 ) = 14
C ( 20, 3 ) 285

b. C ( 3, 3 ) = 1___
C ( 20 , 3 ) 1140

c. C ( 8, 2 ) * C ( 9, 1) = 7
C ( 20 , 3 ) 95

d. C( 3,1)*C(8,0)*C(9,2) + C(3,1)*C(8,1)*C(9,1) + C(3,1)*C(8,2)*C(9,0) + C(3,2)*C(8,0)*C(9,1) + C(3,2)*C(8,1)*C(9,0) + C(3,3)*C(8,0)*C(9,0)

C(20,3)
= 23
57
e. C( 8,1)*C(3,1) * C( 9,1) =18
C ( 20,3) 95

f. 8 * 3 * 9 = 12_
20 19 18 1615

3. How many different ways can 3 red , 4 yellow and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas tree
lights with 9 sockets?
n1= 3 red bubs
n2 = 4 yellow bulbs
n3 = 9 blue bulbs
n = number of sockets
= n!____
n 1 + n2 + n3
= 9!______
3! 4 ! 2!
= 1260 ways

RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

1. A shipment of eight (8) micro-computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are defective. If a school
makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the probability distribution for the number of
defectives.

Solution:

8 micro-computers; 3 are defective

8- 3 = 5 non-defective

We need to find the probability distribution of the random variable.

Let x= the number of defective computers purchased.

The possible values of x = 0,1,2

We have C(8,2) = 28 , equally likely outcomes.

There are C ( 3,0)*C(5,2) = 10 ways to select 0 defective computers and 2 working computers.
The probability to select 0 defective is 10.
28

There are C(3,1)*C(5,1) = 15 ways of selecting 1 defective computer and 1 working computers.
The probability to select 1 defective computer is 15
28

There are C(3,2)*C(5,0) = 3 ways of selecting 2 defective computer and 0 working computers.
The probability to select 2 defective computer is 3
28

The number of defective micro-computer 0 1 2

Probability 1 15 3
0 28 28
2
8
 2. A stockroom clerk returns three helmets at random to 3 steel mill employees who had previously
checked them. If Smith, Jones, and Brown, in that order receive one of the 3 hats, list the sample
points for the possible orders of returning the helmets, and find the value m, of the random variable
M, that represents the number of correct matches.

Let S be Smith’s helmet

J be Jones’s helmet
B be Brown’s helmet

The possible arrangements in which the helmets may be returned and the number of the correct
matches are:
Sample Space m
SJB 3
SBJ 1
BJS 1
JSB 1
JBS 0
BSJ 0

1. An overseas shipment of 5 foreign automobiles contains 2 that have slight paint blemishes. If an
agency receives 3 of these automobiles at random, list down the elements of the sample space using
the letters B and N for blemished and unblemished respectively. If x, represents the number of
automobiles purchased by the agency with paint blemishes, find the probability distribution of x.

Let B be represent blemished automobiles

N be represent the non-blemished

If we picked 3 automobiles randomly , we have the sample space given:

Sample Space x
NNN 0
NNB 1
NBN 1
BNN 1
BBN 2
BNB 2
NBB 2
We have the probability distribution as;
1
f(0) = C(3,3) * C( 2,0) =
10
C(5,3)
6
f(1) = C(3,2) * C(2,1) =
10 x 0 1 2
f(x) 1 6 3
10 10 10
 C( 5,3)

3
f(2)= C (3,1) * C(2,2) =
10
C ( 5, 3)

NORMAL CURVE

1. A multiple choice quiz has 200 questions, each with four possible answers of which only one is the
correct answer. What is the probability that sheer guesswork yields from 25 to 30 correct answers for
80 of the 200 questions about which the student has no knowledge?

1
The probability of a correct answer for each of the 80 questions is p= . If X represents the number of
4
correct answer due to guesswork the,

30
P ( 25 ≤ X≤ 30) ∑ b¿¿ )
x=25

Using the normal-curve approximation with

1
μ=np=80( )=20 ,
4
σ =√ npq = 80
√
13
44
= 3.87

We need to find the area between x1 = 24.5 and x2 = 30.5. The corresponding values are

z1 = 24.5 – 20 = 1.16
3.87

Z2 = 30.5 – 20 =2.71
3.87

The probability of correctly guessing from 25 to 30 is given by the area of the shaded region in Figure 1. From
Normal Distribution Table , we have

30
P ( 25 ≤ X≤ 30) = ∑ b¿¿ )
x=25

= P( 1.16 < Z< 2.71 )

 = P (Z < 2.71 ) – P (Z < 1.16)
= 0.9966 – 0.8770
= 0.1196

2. If the heights of 300 students are normally distributed with mean 68 inches and standard deviation of 3.0
inches, how many students have heights:

a. greater than 72 inches

b. less than or equal to 64 inches
c. between 65 and 71 inches; and
d. equal to 68 inches.

μ = 68 in population mean
σ = 3 in population standard deviation

Compute z-score for the following random variable and determine their probabilities from the
standard tables.
Letter a
x = 72 in
z= (x- μ ¿
σ
= (71 -68 )= 1.333
3
P(x) = 0.9088
For x > 72
the number of students is 300 - 300*90.88 =27. 36
Ans. 27
Letter B
x= 64 in
z = 64- 38 = - 1.333
3
P(x) = 0.0912 = 27.36
For x ≤ 64
the number of students is 300 * 0.0912 = 27.36
Ans. 27
Letter C
 x = 65 in for 65 ≤ x ≤ 71
z= ( 65 -68) = -1 the number of students is 300 * ( 0.8413 -0.1587) = 204.78
3 Ans. 204
P(x) = 0.1587
x= 71
z= (71-68)= 1
3
P(x) = 0.8413
For letter D
d. z= (x- μ ¿
σ
z= 68- 68
3
z=0

P(x) = 0.5
The number of students is 300*0.5 = 150
Ans. 150  

SOME DISCRETE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1. A mailroom clerk is supposed to send 6 of 15 packages to Europe by airmail, but he gets them all mixed
up and randomly puts airmail postage on six of the packages. What is the probability that only 3 of the
packages which are supposed to go by airmail will go by airmail?

f(3)=
(63 )( 6−3
9
) = 1,680 = 0.336
(6+6 9) 5,005

2. Among a department store’s 16 delivery trucks, five emit excessive amounts of pollutants. If 8 trucks are
randomly picked-up for inspection, what is the probability that this sample will include at least 3 of the
trucks which emit excessive amount of pollutants?

SOLUTION
We have,
f(3)= (53 )(8−3
11
) = 4,620 = 0.359
(5+118 )
12,870
 f(4)=( 54 )(8−4
11
) = 1,650 = 0.128
(5+11 8 )
12,870

f(5)=(55 )(8−5
11
) = 165 = 0.013
(5+118 )
12,870

then
f(3) +f(4) +f(5) = .0359 + 0.128 +0.013 = 0.500

3. What is the probability that a waitress will refuse to serve alcoholic beverage to only 2 minors, if she
randomly checks the ID’s of 6 students from among 9 students of which 4 are not of legal age?

Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of minors among 6 students selected
at random for ID checking.
The number of students who are selected randomly for ID checking n= 6
The total number of students N= 9.
The number of students who are not of legal age minor k= 4
The number of students

We have
f(2)=( 42 )(9−4
6−2 ) =
6∗5 30
84
=
84
= 0.357

(96)
Answer : 0.357