ISSN (Online) 2278-1021

IJARCCE ISSN (Print) 2319-5940

International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer and Communication Engineering

Vol. 10, Issue 6, June 2021
DOI 10.17148/IJARCCE.2021.10663

Chronic Disease Prediction Using

Machine Learning
Kaushik Kulkarni1, Manjunath B2, Mayur Hebbar T M3, Meghana M4, Shashank S5, Tojo Mathew6
Student, Computer Science and Engineering, The National Institute of Engineering, Mysuru, India1, 2, 3, 4
Assistant Professor, Computer Science and Engineering, The National Institute of Engineering, Mysuru, India 5, 6

Abstract: Technological development, including machine learning, has a huge impact on health through an effective
analysis of various chronic diseases for more accurate diagnosis and successful treatment. In the field of biomedical and
healthcare communities the accurate prediction plays the major role to find out the risk of the disease in the patient. The
only way to overcome with the mortality due to chronic diseases is to predict it earlier so that the disease prevention can
be done. Such model is a Patient’s need in which Machine Learning is highly recommendable. But the precise prediction
on the basis of symptoms becomes too difficult for doctor. The correct prediction of disease is the most stretching task.
To overcome this problem data mining plays an important role to predict the disease. This study analyzes chronic diseases
using machine learning techniques based on a chronic diseases dataset from the UCI machine learning data warehouse.
We use Heart disease, Kidney disease, Cancer disease and Diabetes disease datasets, In order to build reliable prediction
models for these chronic diseases using data mining techniques. The most relevant features are selected from the dataset
for improved accuracy and reduced training time. The system analyzes the symptoms provided by the user as input and
gives the probability of the disease as an output Disease Prediction is done by implementing the Logistic Regression. By
using logistic regression, random forest and decision tree we are predicting diseases like Diabetes, Heart, Cancer and
Kidney. For each chronic disease, diverse models, techniques, and algorithms are used for predicting and analyzing. The
paper comprises a conceptual model that integrates the prediction of most common chronic diseases.

Keywords: Logistic Regression, Chronic Diseases, Machine Learning, Diseases Prediction and Accuracy.

I. INTRODUCTION

Machine learning is programming computers to optimize a performance using example data or past data. Machine
learning is study of computer systems that learn from data and experience. ML is categorized as supervised (i.e., consists
of output variables that are predicted from input variables) or unsupervised (i.e., deals with clustering of different groups
for a particular intercession). ML is used to determine complex models, and extract medical knowledge, exposing novel
ideas to professionals, and specialists. In clinical practice, ML predictive models can highlight strengthen rules in the
decision-making regarding individual patient care. These are also capable of autonomous diagnosis of different diseases
under clinical rules. The incorporation of these models in drug prescription can save doctors and offer new medical
opportunities in identification.

Machine learning has been shown to be effective in supporting in making decisions and predictions from the large quantity
of data produced by the healthcare industry. We streamline machine learning algorithms for effective prediction of chronic
disease breakout. Various studies give only a glimpse into predicting disease with ML techniques. We propose a novel
method that aims at finding significant features by applying machine learning techniques such as K-Nearest Neighbor
Algorithm (KNN), Decision Trees (DT), Logistic Regression, Random Forest and Naive Bayes (NB) resulting in
improving the accuracy in the prediction of disease. Multiple such algorithms are carried out to improve the accuracy of
the learning process. It can then be tested with the available datasets. The prediction model is introduced with different
combinations of features and various known classification techniques.

With ML models, it can also be possible to improve quality of medical data, reduce variation in patient rates, and save in
medical costs. Therefore, these models are frequently used to investigate diagnostic analysis when compared with other
conventional methods. To reduce the death rates caused by chronic diseases (CDs), early detection and effective therapy
are the only solutions. Therefore, most medical scientists are attracted to the new technologies of predictive models in
disease estimation. These new advancements in medical care have been spreading the accessibility of electronic data and
opening new doors for decision support and productivity improvements. ML methods have been effectively utilized in
the computerized elucidation of pneumonic capacity tests for the differential analysis of CDs. It is expected that the
models with the highest accuracies could gain large importance in medical diagnosis.

II. LITERATURE SURVEY

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Vol. 10, Issue 6, June 2021
DOI 10.17148/IJARCCE.2021.10663

The name machine learning was coined in 1959 by Arthur Samuel. Tom Mitchell states machine learning as “Machine
learning is the study of computer algorithms that allow computer programs to automatically improve through experience”.
It is a combination of correlations and relationships. Most machine learning algorithms in existence are concerned with
finding and/or exploiting relationship between datasets. Once Machine Learning Algorithms can pinpoint on certain
correlations, the model can either use these relationships to predict future observations or generalize the data to reveal
interesting patterns. There are various types of algorithms such as Linear Regression, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes
Classifier, KNN (K-Nearest Neighbor Classifier), Decision Tress, Entropy, SVM (Support Vector Machines), K-means
Algorithm, Random Forest etc.

Machine learning examine the study and construction of algorithms that can learn from and make predictions on data. It
is closely related to (and often overlaps with) computational statistics, which also focuses on prediction-making through
the use of computers. It has strong ties with mathematical optimization which delivers methods, theory and application
domains to the field. Machine learning is sometimes merged with data mining, where the latter subfield focuses more on
exploratory data analysis and is known as unsupervised learning.

Machine learning tasks are typically classified into several broad categories:

A. Supervised learning:
Supervised learning is the machine learning task of learning a function that maps an input to an output based on
example input-output pairs. It infers a function from marked training data consisting of a set of training examples. In
supervised learning, each example is a pair consisting of an input object (typically a vector) and a desired output value
(also called the supervisory signal).

B. Unsupervised learning:
Unsupervised learning is a type of machine learning that looks for previously undetected patterns in a data set with no
pre-existing labels and with a minimum of human observation. In similar to supervised learning that usually makes use
of human-labeled data, unsupervised learning, also known as self-organization allows for modeling of probability
densities over inputs.

III. CURRENT PROCESS

Chronic diseases are growing to be one of the prominent causes for deaths worldwide. There is an increasing percentage
of the world population facing the adverse health effects of living. In general, the patient's reports have to be carefully
scrutinized by doctors to make a diagnosis of the disease. Since the diagnosis is manual sometimes it is difficult for the
doctors to treat patients efficiently.

The number of people suffering from Chronic Diseases is rising day by day. The conventional Health Care is passive. Due to
this type, patients can die due to a lack of proper treatment during emergencies such as cardiac arrest. The key to improving
Health Care efficiency is to reduce the mortality rate due to lack of proper treatment and to transform the passive Health Care
program into a continuous one at a reduced cost.

IV. PROPOSED SYSTEM

Due to the low-progress nature of Chronic Diseases, it is important to make an early prediction and provide effective
medication. Therefore, it is essential to propose a decision model which can help to diagnose chronic diseases and predict
future patient outcomes. While there are many ways to approach this in the field of AI, the present study focuses distinctly
on ML predictive models used in the diagnosis of Chronic Diseases. In comparison to the conventional data analysis
techniques, we will be able to find promising results that enhance the quality of patient data and inspect of specific items
that are related to ML algorithms in medical care.

The main purpose of our project is to make hospital tasks easy and to develop an efficient and feasible software that
replaces the manual prediction system into an automated healthcare management system. Our project enables healthcare
providers to improve operational effectiveness, reduce medical errors and time consumption. If disease can be predicted,
then early treatment can be given to the patients which can reduce the risk of life and save life of patients. The cost to get
treatment of diseases can also be reduced up to an extent by early recognition.

The diagnose will be done based on various Classification Machine Learning Models such as,

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DOI 10.17148/IJARCCE.2021.10663

• Logistic Regression,
• Naive Bayes Classification and
• KNN algorithm.

V. SYSTEM DESIGN

A. Design Goals

The design goals consist of various designs which we have implemented in our system “Chronic Disease Prediction Using
Machine Learning”. This system is built with various designs such as data flow diagram, sequence diagram, class diagram,
use case diagram, activity diagram.

We have designed our system in such a way that the registration process is solely done by administrator. After the
registration process, the users i.e. doctors can login into the system using their credentials. Based on the inputs/attributes
given, doctors will be able to predict the chronic disease accordingly

B. System Architecture

Figure 1. System Architecture

An architecture diagram is a graphical representation of a set of concepts that are part of architecture, including their
principles, elements and components. The diagram explains about the system software in perception of overview of the
system

C. Activity Diagram

The activity diagram is presented in Fig 2. It represents the order in which a particular task of the system is performed to
obtain the result.
The registration process of a User/Doctor is carried out by the Administrator. After the registration, the user i.e. doctor
will login to the system using the credentials provided by the admin. Once the user successfully logs in, the system will
take him to the desired page based on the specialization. Here, in order to get the desired prediction, the user has to enter
the attributes (independent variables) accordingly. System uses the Machine Learning Model that is built using available
datasets and various ML algorithms (classification algorithms) to generate the desired predictions and visualization.

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International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer and Communication Engineering

Vol. 10, Issue 6, June 2021
DOI 10.17148/IJARCCE.2021.10663

Figure 2. System Architecture

VI. ALGORITHM

A. KNN

K Nearest Neighbor (KNN) could be a terribly easy, simple to grasp, versatile and one amongst the uppermost machine
learning algorithms. In Healthcare System, user will predict the disease. In this system, user can predict whether disease
will detect or not. In propose system, classifying disease in various classes that shows which disease will happen on the
basis of symptoms. KNN rule used for each classification and regression issues. KNN algorithm based on feature
comparable approach.

A case is classed by a majority vote of its neighbors, with the case being assigned to the class most frequent amongst its
K nearest neighbors measured by a distance function. If K = 1, then them case is just assigned to the category of its nearest
neighbor.
Euclidean Distance=√∑𝑘𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖 )2

It ought to even be noted that every one 3 distance measures square measure solely valid form continuous variables. In
the instance of categorical variables, the Hamming distance must be used. It combinedly brings up the difficulty of
standardization of the numerical variables between zero and one once there's a combination of numerical and categorical
variables within the dataset.

Hamming Distance = ∑𝑘𝑖=1 |𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖 |

B. Naïve Bayes

Naive Bayes is an easy however amazingly powerful rule for prognosticative modelling. One of the simplest ways that
of choosing the foremost probable hypothesis given the info that we've that we are able to use as our previous information
regarding the matter. Bayes’ Theorem provides how that we are able to calculate the likelihood of a hypothesis given our
previous information.

Naive Bayes classifier assumes that the presence of a specific feature in an exceedingly class is unrelated to the presence
of the other feature. Bayes theorem provides some way of calculative posterior chance P (b|a) from P (b), P (a) and P
(a|b). Look at the equation below:

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DOI 10.17148/IJARCCE.2021.10663

𝑃(𝑎𝑉𝑏) 𝑃(𝑏)
P (bVa) =
𝑃(𝑎)

Above,
• P (b|a) is that the posterior chance of class (b, target) given predictor (a, attributes).
• P (b) is the prior probability of class.
• P (a|c) is that chance that is that the chance of predictor given class.
• P (a) is the prior probability of predictor.

C. Logistic Regression

Logistic regression could be a supervised learning classification algorithm accustomed predict the chance of a target
variable that is Disease. The nature of target or variable is divided, which means there would be solely 2 potential
categories.

In simple words, the variable is binary in nature having information coded as either 1 (stands for success /yes) or 0 (stands
for failure / no). Mathematically, a logistic regression model predicts P(y=1) as a function of x.

Logistic regression can be expressed as:

log(𝑝(𝑋)⁄(1 − 𝑝(𝑋)) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑋

Where, the left hand side is called the logiest or log odds function, and p(x) / (1-p(x)) is called odds. The odds signifies
the ratio of probability of success to probability of failure. Therefore in logistic Regression, linear combination of inputs
are mapped to the log (odds) - the output being adequate to 1.

VII. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The metrics provided below gives us information on the quality of the results that we get in this study.

Precision: Precision or positive predictive value here is the ratio of all patients actually with chronic diseases to all the
patients predicted with chronic disease (true positive and false positive).
𝑇𝑃
Precision =
𝑇𝑃+𝐹𝑃

Recall: It is also known as sensitivity and it is the ratio of actual number of chronic diseases patients that are correctly
identified to the total no of patients with chronic diseases.
𝑇𝑃
Recall =
𝑇𝑃+𝐹𝑁

F- Measure: It measures the accuracy of the test. It is the harmonic mean between precision and recall.

𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙∗𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛
F - Measure=2 ∗
𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙+𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛

Accuracy: It is the ratio of correctly predicted output cases to all the cases present in the data set.
𝑇𝑃+𝑇𝑁
Accuracy=
𝑇𝑃+𝐹𝑃+𝑇𝑁+𝐹𝑁

Table I: Result on accuracy with correctly and incorrectly classified instances.

Disease Accuracy Correctly Classified Incorrectly Classified

Instances Instances
Cancer 81.8182 108 24
Heart 99.8243 568 1

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DOI 10.17148/IJARCCE.2021.10663

Diabetes 78.9272 206 55

Kidney 77.2121 309 91

Table II: Result of Precision, Recall and F – Measure.

Disease Precision Recall F - Measure

Cancer 1.000 0.333 0.500

Heart 1.000 0.995 0.998
Diabetes 0.812 0.899 0.853
Kidney 0.857 0.666 0.749

VIII. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE SCOPE

Machine Learning has brought major improvements to the healthcare sector. With the aid of Machine Learning, the
difficult and life-critical tasks such as chronic disease diagnosis are made easy and reliable. It has brought about
revolutionary changes in hospital, clinic, and laboratory procedures. By analyzing historical and real-time data, doctors
can predict the future situation of patients. Our method has been tested with various datasets for Heart, Kidney, Cancer
and Diabetes disease. The main objective of this study was to predict the chronic disease using attributes while
maintaining a higher accuracy (here we obtain an accuracy of about 90%). Also, our model generates the report consisting
of possibilities of occurrence of disease. The results demonstrate the robustness of the approach proposed. Future research
should analyze different supervised and unsupervised machine learning technique with additional performance metrics
for better chronic disease prediction.

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