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Real Estate Development M
Deal Summary and Cash Flow Model
Home > Resources > Knowledge > Financial Modeling > Re
Development Model
What is a Real Estate Development
Areal estate development model usually consists of two sections: tr
Summary and the Cash Flow Model. Within the Deal Summary, all in
assumptions - including the schedule (which lays out the timeline), }The Cash Flow Model begins with the revenue build up, monthly ex;
financing, and finally levered free cash flows, NPV (net present value
(internal rate of return) of the project. In the following sections, we \
through the key steps to building a well-organized real estate develc
model.
Deal Summary
1. Schedule and Property Stats
The first step in building a real estate development model is to fill in
assumptions for schedule and property stats. Here is a list of items
be included:2. Development Costs
For the next step in creating a real estate development model, we w
assumptions for development costs in terms of the total amount, cc
and cost per square foot. Development costs might include land cos
costs, servicing, hard and soft contingency, marketing, etc. Using the
stats filled in earlier, we can calculate all the numbers and complete
development costs section. The section should look something like tImage Source: CFI's Real Estate Financial Modeling Course.
3. Sales Assumptions$500 per square foot is a realistic starting point for the sales price. V
use this as the driver for revenue. After calculating sales (totai, $/un
commissions (e.g., 50%), and warranty, we can figure out the net pr«
this project.
4. Financing Assumptions
For financing, there are three critical assumptions: loan-to-cost peri
interest rate, and land loan.
Before calculating the total loan amount, we need to figure out the t
development cost amount. Since we have not yet calculated the inte
expense, we can link the cell to the cash flow model for now and ob
once the cash flow model is filled in. The commissions are the same
commissions in the sales assumptions section. The total developme
be calculated as:
Total Development Cost = Land Cost + Development Cost + §
Interest and CommissionsThe Max Loan Amount obtained for this project = Total Develop
Loan to Cost Percentage
Equity amount = Total Development Cost - Max Loan Amount.Image Source: CFI’s Real Estate Development Model Course.
The figures above will be the assumptions from the Deal Summary
we complete the Cash Flow Model, we will come back and complete
Development Pro Forma section and add a sensitivity analysis.
Cash Flow Model
1. Revenue Build Up
The first step in calculating revenues is to find out the townhome at
closings. Absorption is the number of available homes being sold di
time period, while closings are the number of homes closed once th
construction is complete.
Now we can build up the revenue using the absorption and closings
Townhomes sales = Sales Price/Unit x Townhome Closings
First 50% Commissions (charged when homes are sold) = - Towr
absorption x Sales Price/Unit x (Commission% /2)Warranty = - Warranty cost/Unit x Townhome closings
Total Net Revenue = SUM(Townhome sales + 50% Commissions
Commissions + Warranty)
(*Note that commissions and warranty are in negative amounts.)
2. Expenses
Now we'll find out the development expenses, which include land ac
cost, pre-construction spending, and construction spending. The nu
found in the development costs assumption section from the Deal §
Land Acquisition Cost = Land cost
Pre-construction spending = Pre-construction spend ($/month)
Construction spending = (Development costs - Pre-construction
spending)/No. of months of construction
Total Development Costs = SUM(Land acquisition cost + Pre-con
spending + Construction spending)3. Costs to Fund and Proceeds to Repay Capital
The Cost to Fund is the shortfall in the project cash flow that needs
financed. When the total net revenue is less than the total develop
there is a negative cash flow that we need to cover.
When total net revenue becomes greater than the total developmer
will be positive proceeds that we can use to pay back borrowed capi
use the following formulas to calculate the two numbers:
Costs to Fund = IF((Total Net Revenue - Total Development Cost
Net Revenue - Total Development Costs), 0)
Proceeds to Repay Capital = IF((Total Net Revenue - Total Develc
Costs) < 0, (Total Net Revenue - Total Development Costs), 0)
4. Financing
Next, we calculate the loan balances, draws, repayments, and intere
The table below summarizes the calculations for the first period anc
following periods:= Land Loan Amount = IF(Date > Constructie
1F(Opening Balance < Ma
Costs to Fund,
(Repayments) = -MIN(Proceeds to Payback Capital, | = - MIN(Proceeds to Pa’
Opening Balance + Interest Accrued) | Opening Balance + Inte
Interest Accrued | = Opening Balance x Interest Rate /12 | = Opening Balance x Inte
Ending Balance = SUM(Opening Balance, Draws, = SUM(Opening Bala
Repayments, Interest Accrued) Repayments, interes
We should also perform a quick sanity check to ensure none of the«
balances exceeds the max loan amount.
5. Free Cash Flow and IRR
We can now calculate the levered free cash flows and resulting IRR ¢
project.
Levered Free Cash Flow = SUM(Costs to Fund, Proceeds to Paybi
Loan Draws, Loan Repayments)Equity Balance is simply the cumulative FCF:
The first-period balance = Levered Free Cash Flow
Following period balances = Previous Balance - Levered Free Ca
Finally using the XIRR formula, we can calculate the Levered IRR for
Levered IRR =XIRR(All Levered Free Cash Flows, Corresponding 1Image Source: CFI's Real Estate Financial Modeling Course.
More Resources
Thank you for reading CFl's guide to Real Estate Development Mode
learning and developing your knowledge of financial analysis, we hig
recommend the additional CFI resources below:
Financial Modeling Best PracticesINear Lovate yun vernure
Types of Financial Models
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