Security Analysis and Portfolio Management
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management
3. Dr. Mahima Birla (3, 16) 6. Prof. Anil Kothari (12, 13, 14, 15)
Associate Dean, Faculty of Management Studies, Faculty of Management Studies,
Pacific University, Udaipur MLS University, Udaipur
CONTENTS
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management
Unit – 1 Investment 1
Structure of Unit
1.0 Objectives
1.1 Introduction
1.2 What is investment?
1.3 Features of investment
1.4 Perception of investment
1.5 Distinction between Investment and Speculation
1.6 Why Investments are important ?
1.7 Factors Favourable for Investment
1.8 Stages in Investment
1.9 Types of Investors
1.10 Risk Associated with Investment
1.11 Summary
1.12 Self Assessment Questions
1.13 Reference Books
1.0 Objectives
After reading this unit you should be able to understand :
Concept and meaning of Investment.
Features of Investment Programme.
Perceptions behind Investment decision – making.
Investment versus Speculation.
Types of risk associated with Investment.
What are the factors influencing the Investment?
The Investment process.
1.1 Introduction
Investing wisely is an important part of financial security. One tries to invest money as
early as possible so that the money will grow accordingly in his/her lifetime. Choosing a
wise investment option is very crucial because a balance is required to be maintained
between the risks and returns involved. For example, many people invest in private firms
which offer very high interest rate but they may vanish after some time loosing all the
invested money.
1
1.2 What is Investment?
Investment is the employment of funds with the aim of achieving additional income or
growth in value. The essential quality of an investment is that it involves waiting for a
reward. It involves the commitment of resources which have been saved or put away
from current consumption in the hope that some benefits will accrue in future.
In simple terms, investment means conversion of cash or money into a monetary asset, a
claim on future money for a return.
In economics, investment means the amount by which the stock of capital (plant,
machinery, materials, etc.) in an enterprise or economy changes
In finance, investment is a conscious act of an individual or any entity that involves
deployment of money ( cash ) in securities or assets issued by any financial institutions
with a view to obtain the target returns (capital appreciation, dividend and/or interest
earnings) over a specified period of time.
According to Oxford Dictionary, “investment means the investing of money”.
Activity A
1. Define the term investment as it relates to securities investment.
2
it recognizes that errors are unavoidable for which extensive diversification is suggested
as an antidote.
Adequate diversification means assortment of investment commitments in different
ways. Those who are not familiar with the aggressive-defensive approach nevertheless
often carry out the theory of hedging against inflation-deflation. Diversification may be
geographical, wherever possible, because regional or local storms, floods, droughts, etc.
can cause extensive real estate damage. Vertical and horizontal diversification can also
be opted for the same. Vertical diversification occurs when securities of various
companies engaged in different phases of production form raw material to finished
goods are held in the portfolio. On the other hand, horizontal diversification is the
holding by an investor• in various companies all of which carry on activity is the secure
stage of production.
Another way to diversify security is to classify them according to bonds and shares and
reclassify according to types of bonds and types of shares. Again, they can also be
classified according to the issuers, according to the dividend or interest income dates,
according t the products which are made by the firm represented by the securities. But
over diversification is undesirable. By limiting investments to a few issues, the investor
has an excellent opportunity to maintain a knowledge of the circumstances
corresponding each issue. Probably the simplest and most effective diversification is
accomplished by holding different media at the same time having reasonable
concentration in each.
b) Adequate Liquidity and Collateral Value
An investment is a liquid asset if it can be converted into cash without delay at full
market value in any quantity. For an investment to be liquid it must be reversible, or
marketable. The difference between reversibility and marketability is that reversibility is
the process whereby the transaction is reversed or terminated while marketability
involves the sale of the investment in the market for cash. To meet emergencies, every
investor must have a sound portfolio to be sure of the additional funds which may be
needed for the business opportunities. Whether money raising is; to be done by sale or
by borrowing it will be easier if the portfolio contains a planned proportion of high-
grade and readily saleable investment.
c) Stability of Income
Stability of income must be looked at in different ways just as was security of principal.
An investor must consider stability of monetary income and stability of purchasing
power of income. However, emphasis upon income, stability may not always be
consistent with other investment principles. If monetary income stability is stressed,
capital growth and diversification will be limited.
3
d) Capital Growth
Capital appreciation has today become an important principle. Recognising the
connection between corporation and industry growth and very large capital appreciation,
investors and their advisors constantly are seeking “growth stocks.” It is exceedingly
difficult to make a successful choice. The ideal "growth stock" is the right issue in the
right industry, bought at the right time.
e) Tax Benefits
To plan an investment programme without regard to one’s tax status may be costly to the
investor. There are really two problems involved here, one concerned with the amount of
income paid by the investment and the other with the burden of income taxes upon that
income. When investors’ income is small, they are anxious to have maximum cash
returns on their investment, and are prone to take excessive risk. On the other hands,
investors who are not pressed for cash income often find that income taxes deplete
certain types of investment income less than others, thus affecting their choices.
f) Purchasing Power Stability
Since an investment nearly always involves the commitment of current funds with the
objective of receiving greater amounts of future funds, the purchasing power of the
future fund should be considered by the investor. For maintaining purchasing power
stability, investors should carefully study, the degree of price level inflation they expect,
the possibilities of gain and loss in the investment available to them, and the limitations
imposed by personal and family consideration.
g) Concealability
To be safe from social (disorder, government confiscation or unacceptable levels of
taxation, property must be concealable and leave no record of income received from its
use or sale. Gold and precious stones have long been esteemed for these purposes
because they combine high value with small bulk and are readily transferable.
4
productive capital in the form of new construction, new producer’s durable equipment
such as plant & equipment.
c) Social Perception
An investment made to ensure communal harmony and social benefit. For eg.
Investment in polio Campaign etc.
5
1.6 Why Investments are Important
Some factors that have made investment decisions increasingly important are:
a) Longer Life Expectancy
Investments decisions have become significant as most people in India retire between
the ages of 55 and 60. Also the trend shows longer life expectancy. The earnings from
employment should therefore, b calculated in such a manner that a portion should be put
away as savings. Savings by themselves do not increase wealth, these must be invested
in such a way that the principal & income will be adequate for a greater number of
retirement years.
b) Increasing Rates of Taxation
In India progressive taxation system is prevalent which means increasing income results
in higher tax rates. In order to save tax various tax saving investment avenues are
available.
c) Interest Rates
Interest rates vary between one investment and another. These may vary between risky
and safe investments. They also differ due to different benefit schemes offered by the
investments. A high rate of interest may not be the only factor favouring the outlet for
investment. The investor has to include in his portfolio several kinds of investments.
Stability of interest is as important as receiving a high rate of interest.
d) Inflation
Before funds are invested, erosion of the resources will have to be carefully considered
in order to make the right choice of investments. Other factors to be considered are high
rate of return continuity, safety of principal, taxation angle etc.
e) Income
Incomes in levee and more avenues of investment have led to the ability and willingness
of working people to save and invest their funds.
f) Investment Channels
The growth and development of the country leading to greater economic activity has led
to the introduction of a vast array of investment outlets. Apart form putting aside savings
in savings banks where interest is low, investors have the choice of a variety of
instruments.
6
favourable. Generally, there are four basic considerations which foster growth and bring
opportunities for investment. These are:
a) Legal Safeguards
A Stable government which frames adequate legal safeguards encourages acc4mulation
of savings & investments. Investors will be willing to invest their funds if they have the
assurance of protection of their contractual and property rights.
India, being a mixed economy, is a combination of the public sector controlled by the
government and private sector left free to operate, hopes to achieve the benefits of both
socialistic and capitalistic forms of government without their disadvantages. In India, the
political climate is conducive to investment as government control lends stability to the
capital market.
b) A Stable Currency
A reasonable stable price level which is produced by wise monetary & fiscal
management contributes towards proper control, good government, economic well being
and a well disciplined growth oriented investment market and protection to the investor.
7
Investment Objectives
Investment policy
Investible Funds
Identification of Financial
Assets
Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
Techanical Analysis
Selectivity Timing
Portfolio construction
Diversification
Performance Appraisal
Portfolio Evaluation
Risk-Return Analysis
Figure 1.1 Investment Process
8
investor's wealth to put into each one. Here, the issues of selectivity, timing and
diversification need to be addressed by the investor. Selectivity, also known as micro
forecasting, refers to security analysis and thus focuses on forecasting price movements
of individual securities. Timing, also known as macro forecasting, involves the
forecasting of price movements of common stock in general relative to fixed income
securities, such as corporate bonds and Treasury bills. Diversification, involves
constructing the investor’s portfolio in such a manner that risk is minimized, subject to
certain restrictions.
d) Portfolio Revision
The fourth step in the investment process, portfolio revision, concerns the periodic
repetition of the previous three steps. That is overtime the investor may change his or her
investment objectives, which in turn may cause the currently held portfolio to be less
than optimal. Perhaps the investor should form a new portfolio by selling certain
securities that are currently held and purchasing certain others that are not currently held.
Another motivation for revising a given portfolio is that over, time the prices of
securities change, meaning that some securities that initially were not attractive may
become attractive and others that were attractive at one time may 4o longer be so. Thus
investor may want to add the former to his or her portfolio. While simultaneously
declining the latter. Such a decision will depend upon, among other things, the size of
the transaction costs incurred in making these changes and the magnitude of the
perceived improvement in the investment outlook for the revised portfolio.
e) Portfolio Performance Evaluation:
The fifth step in the investment process, portfolio performance evaluation, involves
determining periodically how the portfolio performed, in terms of not only the return
earned but also the risk experienced by the investor. Thus appropriate measures/of return
and risk as well as relevant standards are needed.
Activity C:
1. Write and illustrate the step-by-step process of investment.
9
Active
Passive
Emotional
Investment strategies can be selected on the basis need and goal in life.It is important to
identify clear reasons for selecting there investment strategy. Market conditions may
favor one strategy over the other. For example, when the market or a market sector is
booming, growth strategies become the rage. A down or declining market may favor the
value investor. However, all strategies can work in almost any market conditions -
sometimes the market makes easier than other times.
a) Growth Investors
As the name implies, growth investors look for the rising stars. They are interested in
companies that have high potential for earning growth. High earning growth invariably
leads to high stock prices - at least in theory. Growth investors are willing to bet on
young (or not so young) companies that show promise of becoming leaders in their
industry.
The technology stocks, especially during the late 1990s, were the perfect example of
growth stocks. Many of the young companies started with an idea and nothing more and
now are large successful companies. Of course, a great many more of those same
technology companies started out with an idea and nothing more and ended up where
they started. Which is to say that growth investing carries the risk that some of the
investments are going to fail.
b) Value Investors
Value investors look for the stocks that the market has overlooked. Value doesn't mean
cheap as in low per share price, but under priced relative to the value of the company.
These are stocks the market has passed over while chasing some other industry sector or
more glamorous investments. The value investor looks for stocks with a low
price/earnings ratio meaning the market is not willing to pay much in the way of a
premium for the stock. Of course, the value investor needs to make sure there in nothing
wrong with the company that would warrant a low stock price other than neglect or
market inattention. Assuming the company is solid, the value investor's strategy is to buy
and hold the stock, anticipating the future time when the market will recognize the
company's worth and bid the stock up to its true value. In addition to extensive
homework on the company and its role in the market, the value investor must be patient
to buy at a great price - much below the true value. This gives them the margin for profit
when the company's fortunes improve.
10
c) Income Investors
Income investing is the most straight-forward of all strategies and the most conservative.
Income is the motivation and investors target companies paying high and consistent
dividends. People near or in retirement are fond of this strategy for obvious reasons. The
companies that qualify for the income investor tend to be large and well-established.
There is always some risk involved in investing in stocks, however this remains the most
conservative of the investing strategies. Income investors are more interested in current
income and capital preservation. If the stock price increases, that's icing on the cake for
the income investor who would probably trade some capital appreciation for a higher
dividend.
d) Buy and Hold investors
Buy and hold investors believe ‘time in the market’ is a more prudent investment style
than "timing the market." The strategy is applied by buying investment securities and
holding them for long periods of time because the investor believes that long-term
returns can be reasonable despite the volatility characteristic of short-term periods. This
strategy is in opposition to absolute market timing, which typically has an investor
buying and selling over shorter periods with the intention of buying at low prices and
selling at high prices.
The buy-and-hold investor will argue that holding for longer periods requires less
frequent trading than other strategies. Therefore trading costs are minimized, which will
increase the overall net return of the investment portfolio.
e) Fundamental Investors
Fundamental analysis is a form of an active investing strategy that involves analyzing
financial statements for the purpose of selecting quality stocks. Data from the financial
statements is used to compare with past and present data of the particular business or
with other businesses within the industry. By analyzing the data, the investor may arrive
at a reasonable valuation (price) of the particular company's stock and determine if the
stock is a good purchase or not.
f) Technical Investors
Investors using technical analysis (technical traders) often use charts to recognize recent
price patterns and current market trends for the purpose of predicting future patterns and
trends. In different words, there are particular patterns and trends that can provide the
technical trader certain cues or signals, called indicators, about future market
movements. For example, some patterns are given descriptive names, such as ‘head and
shoulders’ or ‘cup and handle.’ When these patters begin to take shape and are
recognized, the technical trader may make investment decisions based upon the expected
result of the pattern or trend.
11
g) Angel Investor
An angel investor, sometimes just referred to as an angel, is an individual who invests
private funds in a company or product for personal reasons. The term is sometimes
contrasted with venture capital investors, who provide seed capital for similar things
from corporate or partnership funds, with financial gain the main motive. Motivations
for angel investors include interest in a particular area or a belief in the product, as well
as more personal reasons.
h) Active Investors
An active investor is one that has an explicit or implicit objective of "beating the
market." In simple terms, the word active means that an investor will try to pick
investment securities that can outperform a broad market index. These individuals have a
high-risk tolerance and less of a need for security. Active investors are more likely to
invest on the basis of their experience and expertise, and believe that they know more
than their advisor does. They are less likely to delegate the maintenance of those parts of
their investment portfolio in which they believe they have experience or have had
personal success. However, these individuals are more likely to be contrarian in their
stock picking habits and have less need to be completely diversified.
i) Passive Investors
The passive investing strategy can be described by the idea that “if you can’t beat ‘em,
join 'em." Active investing is in contrast to passive investing, which will often employ
the use of index funds and ETFs, to match index performance, rather than beat it.
Passive Investors are individuals who have become wealthy passively - by inheriting, by
a professional career or by risking the money of others rather than their own money. To
these investors security is more important than risk. These investors are risk averse, they
tend to like diversified portfolios of investments in quality companies or investment
products.
j) Emotional Investors
Emotional investors make decisions by impulse or hype and they have great difficulty
disengaging from poor investments or cutting losses. Their investments are fueled by
irrational exuberance and irrational pessimism. Emotional investors systematically
overestimate their ability to predict the next move in the price of different stocks, take
short cuts, rely on stories rather than detailed data analysis; and end up taking excessive
risks. These investors are easily attracted to fashionable investments or ‘hot’ tips, and act
with their heart and not their head.
These investing strategies take in a large number of investors, however it is not required
that you fall purely in one camp or another. As a practical matter, you will likely modify
your investing philosophy as your life circumstances change.
12
1.10 Risks Associated with Investments
In considering economic and political factors, investors commonly identify five kinds of
risks to which their investments are exposed. They are :
a) Business Risk : Business risk is the measure of risk associated with a particular
security. It is also known as unsystematic risk and refers to the risk associated with a
specific issuer of a security. Generally speaking, all businesses in the same industry have
similar types of business risk. But used more specifically, business risk refers to the
possibility that the issuer of a stock or a bond may go bankrupt or be unable to pay the
interest or principal in the case of bonds. A common way to avoid unsystematic risk is to
diversify - that is, to buy mutual funds, which hold the securities of many different
companies.
b) Purchasing Power Risk : Also known as inflation risk, is the chance that the value
of an asset or income will be eroded as inflation shrinks the value of a country's
currency. Put another way, it is the risk that future inflation will cause the purchasing
power of cash flow from an investment to decline. The best way to fight this type of risk
is through appreciable investments, such as stocks or convertible bonds, which have a
growth component that stays ahead of inflation over the long term.
c) Market Risk : Market risk, also called systematic risk, is a risk that will affect all
securities in the same manner. In other words, it is caused by some factor that cannot be
controlled by diversification.
d) Interest Rate Risk : Interest rate risk affects all investors regardless of whether the
investors hold short – term or long – term bonds. Changes in interest rate have the
greatest impact on the market price of long – term bonds, since longer the maturity
period, the greater the effect of change in interest rates. On the other hand, changes in
interest rates will not have much of an impact on the market price of short – term bonds,
but the interest income on a short – term bonds portfolio may fluctuate more from period
to period, as interest rates change.
e) Social / Political or legislative Risk : Risk associated with the possibility of
nationalization, unfavorable government action or social changes resulting in a loss of
value is called social or regulatory risk. Because the ruling government has the power to
change laws affecting securities, any ruling that results in adverse consequences is also
known as legislative risk.
f) Currency/Exchange Rate Risk : Currency or exchange rate risk is a form of risk
that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. The constant
fluctuations in the foreign currency in which an investment is denominated vis-à-vis
one's home currency may add risk to the value of a security.
g) Reinvestment Risk : In a declining interest rate environment, bondholders who
have bonds coming due or being called face the difficult task of investing the proceeds in
bond issues with equal or greater interest rates than the redeemed bonds. As a result,
13
they are often forced to purchase securities that do not provide the same level of income,
unless they take on more credit or market risk and buy bonds with lower credit ratings.
This situation is known as reinvestment risk: it is the risk that falling interest rates will
lead to a decline in cash flow from an investment when its principal and interest
payments are reinvested at lower rates.
h) Liquidity Risk : Liquidity risk refers to the possibility that an investor may not be
able to buy or sell an investment as and when desired or in sufficient quantities because
opportunities are limited. A good example of liquidity risk is selling real estate. In most
cases, it will be difficult to sell a property at any given moment should the need arise,
unlike government securities or blue chip stocks.
1.11 Summary
An investment is a process of sacrificing something now for the prospect of gaining
something later. Generally, all personal investments are designed in order to achieve a
goal which may be tangible (e.g., gold, house etc.) or intangible ( e.g., social status or
goodwill etc.). Stability of principal, liquidity, stability of income, capital growth, tax
liability, purchasing power risk tolerance are identified as constraints for an investor
seeking fulfillment of the goals.
1.12 Self Assessment Questions
1. Why do people invest? What are the factors which are favourable for making
investments in an economy?
2. Explain in detail the reasons for the emerging popularity of investment in today’s
world.
3. “ Investment is a well grounded and carefully planned speculation.”In the light of the
above statement, explain and differentiate between ‘Investment’ and ‘Speculation’.
1.13 Reference Books
V.K.Bhalla , Gangadhar V.; ‘Investment Management’; Anmol Publications Pvt.
Limited.
Yogesh Maheshwari (2008); ‘Investment Management’; PHI Learning Private
Limited, New Delhi.
V.K. Bhalla (2006); ‘Fundamentals of Investment Management; S.Chand &
Company Ltd., New Delhi
Alexander, Sharpe & Bailey; ‘Fundamentals of Investments’; Prentice-Hall of
India Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi.
Bodie, Mohanty(2009); ‘Investments’; Tata McGraw-Hill, 8th Edition,2009,
New Delhi.
Frank J. Fabozzi (1999); ‘Investment Management’; PHI Learning Private
Limited, New Delhi.
Herbert B. Mayo (2007); Investments –An Introduction; Cengage Learning.
14
Unit – 2 Investment Alternatives
Structure of Unit
2.0 Objectives
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Negotiable Financial Instruments
2.3 Non-Negotiable Instruments
2.4 Other Instruments
2.5 Summary
2.6 Self Assessment Questions
2.7 Reference Books
2.0 Objectives
After completing this unit, you would be able to:
Develop an understanding of investment alternatives;
Explain different types of investment alternatives;
Classify the investment alternatives on the basis of Negotiable financial
instruments, Non-negotiable financial instruments and other financial
instruments;
Discuss fixed income and variable income securities;
To portray the major Non-negotiable financial instruments;
Explain the concepts, types, advantages and disadvantages of Mutual funds and
Real Estate.
2.1 Introduction
The problem of surplus gives rise to the question of where to invest. At present, a wide
variety of investment avenues are open to the investors to suit their needs and nature.
Knowledge about the different avenues enables the investors to choose investment
intelligently. The required level of return and the risk tolerance level decide the choice of
the investor. The investment alternatives range from negotiable financial instruments to
non-negotiable financial instruments.
The negotiable financial instruments are financial securities that are transferable. These
kinds of securities may yield variable or fixed income. On the other side the non-
negotiable financial investment as the name itself suggest is not transferable. This is also
known as non-securitized financial instruments.
15
Investment Alternatives
16
Features of Debentures
Form – It is in the form of certificate of indebtedness by the company specifying the
date of redemption and interest rate
Interest – The rate of interest is fixed at the time of issue itself which is known as
contractual or coupon rate of interest. Interest is paid as a percentage of the par value
of the debenture and may be paid annually, semiannually or quarterly. The company
has the legal binding to pay the interest rate.
Redemption – As the state earlier the redemption date would be specified in the
issue itself. The maturity may range from 5 years to 10 years in India.
Types of Debentures
Secured and Unsecured Debentures – in case of secured debentures a charge
wither or floating is created on the whole or any part of the assets of the company.
Unsecured or naked debentures are simple promise to pay the amount involving no
charge or security on the assets of the company.
Convertible and Non-convertible Debentures – Sometimes convertible debentures
are issued by a company in which debenture holders are given an option to exchange
the debentures into equity shares after the expiry of a specified period. Non-
convertible debentures cannot be converted into equity shares.
2.2.1.2 Bonds
Bond is a long term debt instrument that promises to pay a fixed annual sum as interest
for specified period of time. The basic features of the bonds are given below:
(a) Bonds have face value. The face value is called par value. The bond may be issued at
par or at discount.
(b) The interest rate is fixed. Sometimes it may be variable as in the case of floating rate
bond. Interest is paid semi-annually or annually. The interest rate is known as
coupon rate. The interest rate is specified in the certificate.
(c) The maturity date of the bond is usually specified at the issue time except in the case
of perpetual bonds.
(d) The redemption value is also stated in the bonds. The redemption value may be at
par value or at premium.
(e) Bonds are traded in the stock market. When they are traded, the market value may be
at par or at discount or discount. The market value and the redemption value need
not be the same.
Types of bonds
Secured Bonds and unsecured Bonds – The secured bond is secured by the real
asset of the issuer. In the case if the unsecured bond the name and the fame may be
the only security.
Perpetual bonds and redeemable bonds – Bonds that do not mature or never
mature are called perpetual bonds. The interest alone would be paid. In the
redeemable bond, the bond is redeemable after a specified period of time. The
redemption value is specified by the issuer.
17
Fixed interest rate bonds and floating interest rate bonds – In the fixed interest
rate bonds, the interest rate is fixed at the time of the issue. Whereas in the floating in
the floating rate bonds, the interest rates change according to the prefixed norms.
Zero coupon bonds – These types of bonds sell at a discount and the face value is
repaid at maturity. The difference between the purchase cost and face value of the
bond is the gain for the investors.
Capital indexed bonds – In the capital indexed bond, the principal amount of the
bond is adjusted for inflation for every year.
2.2.1.3 Preference Shares
Preference shares as the, name suggest are shares having certain preference as compared
to other type of shares. According to Companies Act 1956 “A preference share is a share
which carries preferential rights as to the payment of dividend at a fixed rate either free
or subject to income tax and as to the payment of capital at the time of liquidation prior
to equity shareholders.”
Thus, preference shareholders enjoy two rights over equity shares. First, they are entitled
to receive dividend prior to the payment of dividend on equity shares. Second, at the
time of winding up of the economy, the preference share capital is repaid prior to equity
share capital. Generally, dividend on these shares is paid at predetermined fixed rate
which is decided at the time of issue.
Features of Preference Shares
Claims on income – Preference shareholders have priority of claim to dividend over
equity shareholders.
Claims on Assets – Although no specific assets are pledged against the preference
shares, yet the preference shareholders have prior claim on the general assets of the
company, over equity shares.
No controlling power – Preference shareholders do not have the right to participate
in the management of the company, hence, they too have no voting power like equity
shareholders.
Types of Preference Shares
Cumulative and Non-cumulative – The holders of cumulative preference shares
enjoy the right to receive the arrears of dividend for a year, if the company has not
paid dividend at fixed rate due to lack sufficient profits for that particular year. In
case of non-cumulative shares, the dividend does not accumulated, if it is not paid
in a particular year due to insufficient or no profits.
Redeemable and irredeemable – The preference share which would be repaid on or
after a certain period/date in accordance with the terms of issue, are known as
redeemable preference shares. Irredeemable preference shares are those which
cannot redeemed during the life-time of company.
Participating and non-participating - The holders of participating preference
shares are entitled, in addition to fixed dividend, the share in the surplus profits
remaining after paying a certain amount of dividend on equity shares. The non
18
participating preference shares do not carry the right to share in the surplus profits or
assets of the company. They are paid only a fixed dividend.
Convertible and non-convertible The holders of convertible preference shares have
the right to convert their shares into equity shares within a fixed period of time. Non-
convertible preference shares are those which cannot be converted into equity
shares.
19
Tax advantages (in certain cases)
Hedge against the inflation
Shares with Differential Rights
As per companies (Issue of Share Capital with Differential Voting Rights) Rules, 2001,
any company limited by shares can issues equity shares with differential rights as to
voting, dividend or otherwise subject to the fulfillment of certain conditions. The shares
with differential voting right shall not exceed 25% of the total share capital issued. A
member of the company holding any equity share with differential right shall be entitled
to bonus shares, rights shares of the same class and enjoy all other rights to which the
holder is entitled except the differential right.
a) Sweat Equity
Sweat equity is a new equity instrument introduced in the Companies (Amendment)
Ordinance, 1998. Newly inserted Section 79A of the Companies Act, 1956 allows issue
of sweat equity. However, it should be issued out of class of equity shares already issued
by the company. It cannot form a new class of equity shares. Section 79A (2) explains
that all limitations, restrictions and provisions applicable to equity shares are applicable
to seat equity. Thus, sweat equity forms a part of equity share capital.
The definition of sweat equity has two different dimensions:
Shares issued at a discount to employees and directors
Shares issued for consideration other than cash for providing know0how or making
available rights in the nature of intellectual property rights or value additions, by
whatever name called.
Reasons for Issuing Sweat Equity
Directors and employees contribute intellectual property rights to the company. This
may be in the form of providing technical know-how captured by way research,
contributing to the company in the form of strategy, software developed for the
company, or adding profit.
Traditional way of recognizing the employees and directors in the form of monetary
and non-monetary benefit is deficient. Even incentive bonus on the basis of
performance fails to reward them adequately. Rather in the matter of intellectual
property right, the contributing employees/ directors are not well protected.
In case a director/employee leaves the company or is asked to leave, his contribution
which will generate cash flows to the company for an unidentified future period does
bring adequate return to him.
Sweat Equity is for
Directors/employees who designed strategic alliance
Directors/employees worked for strategic market penetration and helped the
company attain sustainable market share
In the service industry, sweat equity has a special relevance. The major industries
where the directors and employees can be rewarded through sweat equity are:
20
Computer hardware and software development
Management consultancy where a standard is issued to earn a fee, like Enterprise
Resource Planning (ERP) solution
NBFCs where product design is crucial
Other non-traditional financial service industries like custodians, depositories credit
rating wherein basic service design is important.
B) Right Shares
The shares offered to the existing shareholders u/s 81 of Indian Companies Act, 1956 as
a matter of legal right, are called right shares. If a public company wants to increase its
subscribed capital by way of issuing shares after two years from its formation date or
one year from the date of first allotment, whichever is earlier, such shares should be
offered first to the existing shareholders in proportion to the capital paid up on the shares
held by them at the date of such offer. This pre-emptive right can be forfeited by the
shareholders through a special resolution. A shareholder can renounce the right shares in
favor of his nominee. He may renounce all or part of the shares offered to him. The right
shares may be partly paid. Right issues are regulated under the provisions of the
Companies Act and SEBI.
c) Bonus Shares
Bonus share is the distribution of shares in addition to the cash dividends to the existing
shareholders. Bonus shares are issued to the existing shareholders without any payment
of cash. The aim of bonus share is to capitalize the free reserve. The bonus issue is made
out of free reserve built out of genuine profit or share premium collected in cash only.
The bonus issue could be made only when all the partly paid shares, if any, existing are
made fully paid up.
Stock Market Classification of Equity Shares
In stock market conservation, shares may be classified into the following categories:
(i) Blue Chip Shares – Shares of large, well established and financially strong
companies with an impressive record of earnings and dividends are generally referred to
as blue chip shares. The price volatility of such shares tends to be moderate.
(ii) Growth Shares – The stock have higher rate of growth than the industrial growth
rate in profitability are referred to as growth shares.
(iii)Income Shares – These stocks belong to companies that gave comparatively stable
operations and limited growth opportunities. The bank shares and some of the FMCG
stocks may be termed as income shares.
(iv) Defensive Shares – These kind of shares are relatively unaffected by the market
movements.
(v) Cyclical Shares – The business cycle affects the cyclical shares. The upward and
downward movements of the business cycle affect to business prospects of certain
companies and their stock prices.
(vi) Speculative Shares – Shares that have lot of speculative trading in them are referred
to as speculative shares. During the bull and bear phase of the market, this type of shares
attracts the attention of the traders.
21
2.3 Non-Negotiable Instruments
2.3.1 Bank Deposits
Bank deposit is the simplest investment avenue open for the investors. A bank can be
made by opening a bank account and depositing money in it. There are several ways to
which an investor can make investment with banks. Few of them are as follows:
2.3.1.1 Bank Fixed Deposits
Bank fixed deposits are also known as term deposits. In a fixed deposit account, a certain
sum of money is deposited in the bank for a specified time period with a fixed rate of
interest.
The rate of interest for bank fixed deposits depends on the maturity period. It is higher in
case of longer maturity period. There is great flexibility in maturity period and it ranges
from 7 days to 10 years. The interest is compounded annually and is added o the
principal amount. The minimum deposit amount is Rs. 1000/- and there is no upper
limit.
Loan/overdraft facility is available against bank fixed deposits. Premature withdrawal is
permissible but some penalty is levied. Tax deductible at source, if the interest paid/
payable on deposit exceeds Rs. 5000/- per customer, per year, per branch or as per
norms decided by Ministry of Finance, Income tax department from time to time.
2.3.1.2 Current Account
Current account is primarily meant for businessmen, firms, companies, public
enterprises etc. that have numerous daily banking transactions. Current accounts are
meant neither for the purpose of earning interest nor for the purpose of savings but only
for convenience of the business, hence they are non-interest bearing account. Current
account holders get one important advantage of overdraft facility
Features of Current Bank Account ↓
The main features of current account are as follows:-
Current bank accounts are operated to run a business.
It is a non-interest bearing bank account.
It needs a higher minimum balance to be maintained as compared to the savings
account.
Penalty is charged if minimum balance is not maintained in the current account.
It charges interest on the short-term funds borrowed from the bank.
It is of a continuing nature as there is no fixed period to hold a current account.
It does not promote saving habits with its account holders.
Banker requires KYC (Know your Customers) norms to be completed before
opening a current account.
The main objective of current bank account is to enable the businessmen to conduct
their business transactions smoothly.
22
There is no restriction on the number and amount of deposits.
There is also no restriction on the number and amount of withdrawals made, as long
as the current account holder has funds in his bank account.
Generally, bank does not pay any interest on current account. Nowadays, some banks
do pay interest on current accounts.
Advantage of Current Bank Account
The advantages of current account are as follows:-
1. Current account is mainly opened for businessmen such as proprietors, partnership
firms, public and private companies, trust, association of persons, etc. that has a large
number of daily banking transactions, i.e. receipts and/or payments.
2. It enables businessmen to carry out their business transactions properly and
promptly.
3. The businessmen can withdraw from their current accounts without any limit, subject
to banking cash transaction tax, if any levied by the government.
4. Home branch is that location where one opens his bank account. There are no
restrictions on deposits made in the current account opened in a home branch of a
bank. However, the current account holder can deposit the cash from any other
branch of a bank other than the home branch by paying a nominal charge as
applicable.
5. It helps businessmen to make a direct payment to their creditors by issuing cheques,
demand-drafts or pay-orders, etc.
6. It enables a bank to collect money on behalf of its customers and credits the same in
their customers' current accounts.
7. It enables the current account holder to obtain overdraft (short-term borrowing)
facility.
8. The creditors of the account holder can get credit-worthiness information of the
account holder through inter-bank connection.
9. It facilitates the industrial progress of the country. Without its help, businessmen
would face difficulties in running their businesses.
10. It has the facilities of Internet-banking and mobile-banking to carry out important
business transactions with ease and quickly.
11. It also provides various other advantages (benefits) such as:
Deposit and withdrawal of money (cash) at any location.
Multi-location funds transfer,
Electronic funds transfer,
Periodical (monthly, quarterly or yearly) e-mail or download of bank statements
in various formats like '.XLS', '.TXT', '.PDF', etc.
Support from customer care executives
23
2.3.1.3 Demat Account
In India, shares and securities are held electronically in a Dematerialized (Demat)
account, instead of the investor taking physical possession of certificates. A
Dematerialized account is opened by the investor while registering with an investment
broker (or sub-broker). The Dematerialized account number is quoted for all transactions
to enable electronic settlements of trades to take place. Every shareholder will have a
Dematerialized account for the purpose of transacting shares.
Access to the Dematerialized account requires an internet password and a transaction
password. Transfers or purchases of securities can then be initiated. Purchases and sales
of securities on the Dematerialized account are automatically made once transactions are
confirmed and completed.
Benefits of Demant
The benefits of demat are enumerated as follows:
Easy and convenient way to hold securities
Immediate transfer of securities
No stamp duty on transfer of securities
Safer than paper-shares (earlier risks associated with physical certificates such as bad
delivery, fake securities, delays, thefts etc. are mostly eliminated)
Reduced paperwork for transfer of securities
Reduced transaction cost
No "odd lot" problem: even one share can be sold
Change in address recorded with a DP gets registered with all companies in which
investor holds securities eliminating the need to correspond with each of them
separately.
Transmission of securities is done by DP, eliminating the need for notifying
companies.
Automatic credit into demat account for shares arising out of bonus/split,
consolidation/merger, etc.
A single demat account can hold investments in both equity and debt instruments.
Traders can work from anywhere (e.g. even from home).
2.3.1.4 Saving Bank Account
Saving accounts are opened to encourage the people to save money and collect their
savings.
In India, saving account can be opened by depositing र100 (approx. US $2) to र5000
(approx. US $100). The saving account holder is allowed to withdraw money from the
account as and when required. The interest which is given on saving accounts is
sometime attractive, but often nominal.
At present, the rate of interest ranges from 4% to 6% per annum in India. The interest
rates vary as per the amount of money deposited (lying) in the saving bank account,
24
scheme opted, and its maturity range. It is also subject to current trend of banking
policies in a country.
Features of Saving Account
The main features of saving account in bank are as follows:
The main objective of saving account is to promote savings.
There is no restriction on the number and amount of deposits. However, in India,
mandatory PAN (Permanent Account Number) details are required to be furnished
for doing cash transactions exceeding र50,000.
Withdrawals are allowed subject to certain restrictions.
The money can be withdrawn either by cheque or withdrawal slip of the respective
bank.
The rate of interest payable is very nominal on saving accounts. At present it is
between 4% to 6% p.a in India.
Saving account is of continuing nature. There is no maximum period of holding.
A minimum amount has to be kept on saving account to keep it functioning.
No loan facility is provided against saving account.
Electronic clearing System (ECS) or E-Banking are available to pay electricity bill,
telephone bill and other routine household expenses.
Generally, equated monthly installments (EMI) for housing loan, personal loan, car
loan, etc., are paid (routed) through saving bank account.
2.3.1.5 Recurring Deposit
Recurring deposit account is generally opened for a purpose to be served at a future date.
Generally opened to finance pre-planned future purposes like, wedding expenses of
daughter, purchase of costly items like land, luxury car, refrigerator or air conditioner,
etc.
Recurring deposit account is opened by those who want to save regularly for a certain
period of time and earn a higher interest rate.
In recurring deposit account certain fixed amount is accepted every month for a specified
period and the total amount is repaid with interest at the end of the particular fixed
period.
Features of Recurring Deposit Account
The main features of recurring deposit account are as follows:-
The main objective of recurring deposit account is to develop regular savings habit
among the public.
In India, minimum amount that can be deposited is Rs.10 at regular intervals.
25
The period of deposit is minimum six months and maximum ten years.
The rate of interest is higher.
No withdrawals are allowed. However, the bank may allow closing the account
before the maturity period.
The bank provides the loan facility. The loan can be given upto 75% of the amount
standing to the credit of the account holder.
2.3.1.6 Self Liquidating FDR
This is a fixed deposit scheme, in which instead of one single FDR, the bank issues
several FDR of small denominations. In these, there is a provision of partial liquidation
of deposited amount. Due to such partial liquidation there is no loss of interest on the
remaining amount of FDR.
Activity A :
Collect the information on rate of interest of the commercial banks on saving bank
account, FDRS and Recurring Deposits.
2.3.2 Postal Services In India
The main financial services offered by the Department of Posts are the Post Office
Savings Bank. It is the largest and oldest banking service institution in the country. The
Department of Posts operates the Post Office Savings Scheme function on behalf of the
Ministry of Finance, Government of India. Under this scheme, more than 20.50 crores
savings account are operated. These accounts are operated through more than 1,54,000
post offices across the country.
Indian Post offers several Savings Schemes which are:
backed by the Government of India
safe, secure and risk-free investment options
not deducting any Tax at Source (NO TDS)
providing nomination facility
transferable to any Post Office anywhere in India
offering attractive rates of interest.
2.3.2.1 Savings Account
Post office saving account is similar to a savings account in a bank. It is a safe
instrument to park those funds, which you might need to liquidate fully or partially at
very short notice. Post office savings accounts are especially suited for those living in
rural and semi-rural areas where the reach of banks is very limited.
Rate of interest is decided by the central government from time to time. Interest is
calculated on monthly balances and credited annually. Income tax relief is available on
the amount of interest under the provisions of section 80 L of income tax act.
26
2.3.2.2 Recurring Deposit Account (RDA)
Amount of Investments: min - Rs. 10 p.m. or any amount in multiples of Rs. 5
Amount of Investments: max - No maximum limit
Payment Terms:The deposit shall be paid as monthly installments
Maturity Terms: One withdrawal is allowed after one year of opening a post-office
RDA or You can withdraw up to half the balance lying to your credit at an interest
charged at 15%
Returns: The PO RD offer a fixed rate of interest, currently at 8 %pa compounded
qtr.
Tax Considerations: Interest is liable to tax however there is No TDS from interest
2.3.2.3 Post Office Monthly Income Scheme (MIS)
Salient Features:
Interest rate of 8.4% per annum payable monthly as on 01-04-2013
Maturity period is 5 years.
No Bonus on Maturity as on 01.12.2011.
No tax deduction at source (TDS).
No tax rebate is applicable.
Minimum investment amount is Rs.1500/- or in multiple thereafter.
Maximum amount is Rs. 4.50 lakhs in a single account and Rs.9 lakhs in a joint
account.
Auto credit facility of monthly interest to saving account if accounts are at the same
post office.
Account can be opened by an individual, two/three adults jointly, and a minor
through a guardian.
Non-Resident Indian / HUF cannot open an Account.
Minors have a separate limit of investment of Rs. 3 lakhs and the same is not clubbed
with the limit of guardian.
Facility of premature closure of account after 1 year but on or before 3 years @
2.00% discount.
Deduction of 1% if account is closed prematurely at any time after three years.
Suitable scheme for retired employees/ senior citizens and for those who need
regular monthly income.
2.3.2.4 National Savings Certificate (NSC)
Salient Features:
NSC VIII Issue (5 years) – Interest rate of 8.5% per annum as on 01-04-2013
NSC IX Issue (10 years) - Interest rate of 8.8% per annum as on 01-04-2013
Minimum investment Rs. 100/-. No maximum limit for investment.
27
No tax deduction at source.
Investment up to Rs 1,00,000/- per annum qualifies for Income Tax Rebate under
NSC - section 80C of IT Act.
Certificates can be kept as collateral security to get loan from banks.
Trust and HUF cannot invest.
A single holder type certificate can be purchased by an adult for himself or on behalf
of a minor or to a minor.
The interest accruing annually but deemed to be reinvested will also qualify for
deduction under NSC - section 80C of IT Act.
2.3.2.5 Public Provident Fund (PPF)
Salient Features:
Interest rate of 8.7% per annum as on 01-04-2014.
Minimum deposit is 500/- per annum. Maximum deposit is Rs. 1,00,000/- per annum
The scheme is for 15 years.
Investment up to Rs 1,00,000/- per annum qualifies for Income Tax Rebate under
section 80C of IT Act.
Interest is completely tax-free.
Deposits can be made in lumpsum or in 12 installments.
One deposit with a minimum amount of Rs 500/- is mandatory in each financial year.
Withdrawal is permissible from 6th financial year.
Loan facility available from 3rd financial year.
Free from court attachment.
Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) not eligible.
An individual cannot invest on behalf of HUF (Hindu Undivided Family) or
Association of persons.
Ideal investment option for both salaried as well as self employed classes.
2.3.2.6 Post Office Time Deposit Scheme
Salient Features:
1 year, 2 year, 3 year and 5 year time deposits can be opened.
Interest payable annually but compounded quarterly:
Period Rate of Interest
One Year 8.2%
Two Years 8.3%
Three Years 8.4%
Five Years 8.5%
28
Minimum amount of deposit is Rs 200/- and in multiples of Rs 200/- thereafter. No
maximum limit.
Investment up to Rs 1,00,000/- per annum qualifies for Income Tax Rebate under
section 80C of IT Act.
Interest income is taxable.
Facility of redeposit on maturity of an account.
In case of premature closure of 1 year, 2 Year, 3 Year or 5 Year account on or after
01.12.2011 between 6 months to one year from the date of deposit, simple interest at
the rate applicable to from time to time to post office savings account shall be
payable.
2 year, 3 year or 5 year accounts on or after 01.12.2011 if closed after one year,
interest on such deposits shall be calculated at a discount of 1% on the rate specified
for respective period as mentioned in the concerned table given under Rule 7 of Post
office Time Deposit Rules.
Account can be pledged as security against a loan to banks/ Government institutions.
Any individual (a single adult or two adults jointly) can open an account.
Group Accounts, Institutional Accounts and Misc. account not permissible.
Trust, Regimental Fund or Welfare Fund not permissible to invest.
2.3.2.7 Senior Citizen's Savings Scheme
Salient Features:
Interest @ 9.2% per annum from the date of deposit on quarterly basis as on 01-04-
2014
Minimum deposit is Rs 1000 and multiples thereof. Maximum limit of 15 lakhs.
Maturity period is 5 years and can be extended for a further period of 3 years.
Age should be 60 years or more, and 55 years or more but less than 60 years who has
retired under a Voluntary Retirement Scheme or a Special Voluntary Retirement
Scheme on the date of opening of the account within three months from the date of
retirement.
No age limit for the retired personnel of Defence services provided they fulfill other
specified conditions.
The account may be opened in individual capacity or jointly with spouse.
TDS is deducted at source on interest if the interest amount is more than Rs 10,000/-
per annum.
Investment up to Rs 1,00,000/- per annum qualifies for Income Tax Rebate under
section 80C of IT Act.
Interest can be automatically credited to savings account provided both the accounts
stand in the same post office.
Premature closure is allowed after one year on deduction of 1.5% of the deposit and
after 2 years on deduction of 1%.
No withdrawal permitted before the expiry of a period of 5 years from the date of
opening of the account.
29
Non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Hindu Undivided Family (HUF) are not eligible to
open an account.
2.3.2.8 Post Office Savings Account
Salient Features:
Rate of interest 4.0% per annum
Minimum amount Rs 50/- in case of non-cheque account, Rs.500/- in case of cheque
account.
Maximum balance permissible is Rs 1,00,000/- in a single account and Rs 2,00,000/-
in a joint account.
Interest Tax Free.
Any individual can open an account.
Cheque facility available.
Group Account, Institutional Account, other Accounts like Security Deposit account
& Official Capacity account are not permissible.
2.3.2.9 Senior Citizen Scheme
Senior Features Citizens Savings Scheme is launched for Citizens of 60 years of age
and above. Citizens who have retired under a voluntary or a special voluntary
retirement scheme and have attained the age of 55 years are also eligible, subject to
specified conditions
Maturity: Maturity period of the deposit will be five years, extendable by another
three years.
Returns: The deposit will carry an interest of 9% per annum
Tax Considerations: Interest is liable to tax however there is No TDS from interest
Activity B :
Collect the information about the saving schemes the post office along with their current
rate of interest.
2.3.3 Insurance
Life is like a roller coaster ride and is full of twists and turns. You cannot take anything
for granted in life. Insurance policies are a safeguard against the uncertainties of life.
Insurance system by which the losses suffered by a few are spread many, exposed to
similar risks. Insurance is a protection against financial loss arising on the happening of
an unexpected event. Insurance policy helps in not only mitigating risks but also
provides a financial cushion against adverse financial burdens suffered.
Insurance policies cover the risk of life as well as other assets and valuable such as
home, automobiles, jewelry et al. On the basis of the risk they cover, insurance policies
can be classified into two categories:
1. Life Insurance Policies
2. General Insurance Policies
30
1. Life Insurance: Life is very fragile and death is certainly. We cannot control the
uncertainties of life. But, we can cover the risks surroundings us. Life insurance, simply
put, is the cover for the risks that we run during our lives. It protects us from the
contingencies that could affect us. Life insurance is not for the person who passes away,
it is for those who survive. It is the responsibility of every bread earner to guard against
the events that could affect the family in the unfortunate circumstance of his/her demise.
Thus, having a life insurance policy is very vital. Before going for a life insurance policy
it is imperative that you know about various types of life insurance policies. Major
among them are:
Endowment Policy
Whole Life Policy
Term Life Policy
Money-back Policy
Joint Life Policy
Group Insurance Policy
Loan Cover Term Assurance Policy
Pension Plan or Annuities
Unit Linked Insurance Plan
The major advantages of life insurance of life insurance are given below:
(i) Protection: Saving through life insurance guarantees full protection against risk of
death of the saver. The full assured sum is paid, whereas in other schemes only the
amount saved is paid.
(ii) Easy Payments: For the salaried people the salary savings’ schemes are introduced.
Further, there is an easy installment facility method of payment through monthly,
quarterly, half yearly or yearly mode.
(iii)Liquidity: Loans can be raised on the security of the policy.
(iv) Tax relief: Tax relief in income tax and wealth tax is available for amounts paid by
way of premium for life insurance subject to the tax rates in force.
2. General Insurance: General Insurance provides much-needed protection against
unforeseen events such as accidents, illness, fire, burglary et al. Unlike life insurance,
general insurance is not meant to offer returns but is a protection against contingencies.
Almost everything that has a financial value in life and has a probability of getting lost,
stolen or damaged can be covered through general insurance policy.
Property (both movable and immovable), vehicle, cash house hold goods, health,
dishonesty and also one’s liability towards others can be covered under general
insurance policy. Under certain acts of parliament, some type of insurances like motor
insurance of public liability insurance has been made compulsory.
Major insurance policies that are covered under general insurance are:
Home Insurance
Health Insurance
Motor Insurance
Travel Insurance
31
Activity C :
How many public and private players are there in life insurances sector in India.
Activity D :
Collect the information on various scheme of Health Insurance provided by the general
insurance companies in India.
32
Maturity Period: Maturity period of these companies ranges from few months to
five years. It varies from company to company.
Security of Deposit: A Security deposit in these companies is much lower than
deposits with banks.
33
Close ended funds: The close ended funds have a fixed maturity period. The first time
investments are made when the close end scheme is kept open for a limited period. Once
closed, the units are listed on stock exchange. Investors can buy and sell their units only
through stock exchanges. The demand and supply factors influence the prices of the
units. The investor’s expectation also affects the unit prices. The market price may not
be the same as the net asset value.
Advantages of Mutual Funds
1. Diversification. Mutual funds spread their holdings across a number of different
investment vehicles, which reduces the effect any single security or class of
securities will have on the overall portfolio.
2. Expert Management. Many investors lack the financial know-how to manage their
own portfolio. However, non-index mutual funds are managed by professionals who
dedicate their careers to helping investors receive the best risk-return trade-off
according to their objectives.
3. Liquidity. Mutual funds, unlike some of the individual investments can be traded
daily. Though not as liquid as stocks, which can be traded intraday, buy and sell
orders are filled after market close.
4. Convenience. Choosing a mutual fund is ideal for people who don’t have the time to
micromanage their portfolios.
5. Reinvestment of Income. They allow the facility to reinvest the dividends and
interest in additional fund shares. This gives an opportunity to grow the portfolio
without paying regular transaction fees for purchasing additional mutual fund shares.
6. Range of Investment Options and Objectives. There are funds for the highly
aggressive investor, the risk averse, and the middle-of-the-road investor – for
example, emerging markets funds, investment-grade bond funds, and balanced funds,
respectively. There are also life cycle funds to ramp down risk as you near
retirement. There are funds with a buy-and-hold philosophy, and others that are in
and out of holdings almost daily.
Disadvantages of Mutual Funds
Although mutual funds can be beneficial in many ways, they are not for everyone.
1. No Control over Portfolio. Investing in fund give up all control of portfolio to the
mutual fund money managers who run it.
2. Capital Gains. In a mutual fund, you’re taxed when the fund distributes gains it
made from selling individual holdings – even if you haven’t sold your shares. If the
fund has high turnover, or sells holdings often, capital gains distributions could be an
annual event.
3. Fees and Expenses. Some mutual funds may assess a sales charge on all purchases,
also known as a “load” – this is what it costs to get into the fund. Plus, all mutual
funds charge annual expenses, which are conveniently expressed as an annual
expense ratio – this is basically the cost of doing business. The expense ratio is
expressed as a percentage, and is what you pay annually as a portion of your account
34
value. The average for managed funds is around 1.5%. Alternatively, index funds
charge much lower expenses (0.25% on average) because they are not actively
managed. Since the expense ratio will eat directly into gains on an annual basis,
closely compare expense ratios for different funds you’re considering.
4. Over-diversification. Although there are many benefits of diversification, there are
pitfalls of being over-diversified. Think of it like a sliding scale: The more securities
you hold, the less likely you are to feel their individual returns on your overall
portfolio. What this means is that though risk will be reduced, so too will the
potential for gains. This may be an understood trade-off with diversification, but too
much diversification can negate the reason you want market exposure in the first
place.
5. Cash Drag. Mutual funds need to maintain assets in cash to satisfy investor
redemptions and to maintain liquidity for purchases. However, investors still pay to
have funds sitting in cash because annual expenses are assessed on all fund assets,
regardless of whether they’re invested or not.
2.4.2 Real Assets
2.4.2.1 Gold and Silver
For ages, gold and silver have been considered as a form of investment. They are
considered as best hedge against the inflation. This is a favorite form of investment
amongst the rural and semi- urban population.
2.4.2.2 Art
Paintings are the most sought after from an art. The prices in the art market are rising
and this rise is expected to continue. If an investor likes to buy paintings as a form of
investments he has to consider the following points.
a) Paintings of the young painters. The works of established painters are costly and
scope for appreciation in their values is limited. But prices of the good quality
paintings of the young painters may increase quickly
b) Should posses the basic idea o the painting. This is needed to decide the quality of
the paintings. He should be able to judge the primary attributes of the paintings such
as spontaneity, nature of strokes, color combination and originality.
c) The investor should have aesthetic sense because he may or may or may not be able
to resell the paintings. Therefore when he possesses the art piece the investor should
have a sense of fulfillment.
2.4.2.3 Antiques
In western countries’ investment in antique is more common than in India. The antique
is an object of historical interest. It may be a coin, sculpture or any other object of olden
days. The owner of the antique has to register himself with Archeological Society of
India. The society, after examining the authenticity of the antique issues a “Certificate of
Registration”. Any dealings i.e. purchase and sale of antique should be informed to the
society. The government has the right to buy the antique from the owner, if it wants to
35
keep it in the museum. In the case of investment, the investor has to be careful about the
fake antique and the rise in the price of the antique is uncertain.
2.4.2.4 Precious Stones
Diamonds, rubies, emeralds, sapphires and pearls have appealed to investors from times
immemorial because of their aesthetic appeal and rarity. These stones have attracted
interest because of their high percent value. The quality of these stones is basically
judged in terms of carat, clarity etc. These stones only attract the affluent investors, who
have skill in buying them. It is less appealing to the bulk of the investors due to the
following reasons:
They do not provide regular income
There is no tax advantage associated with them
They are not very liquid and trading commissions in them tend to be high
The assessment of their value is tricky.
2.4.3 Real Estate
Real estate has historically been useful in a portfolio for both income and capital gain.
Home ownership, in itself, is a form of equity investment, as is the ownership of a
second or vacation home, since these properties generally appreciate in value. Other
types of estate, such as residential and commercial rental property, can create income
streams as well as potential long-term capital gains.
Real estate investments can be made directly, with a purchase in your own name or
through investments in limited partnerships, mutual funds, or Real Estate Investment
Trust (REIT). REIT is a company organized to invest in real estate. Shares are generally
traded in the organized exchange.
Also, there are many kinds of investments. Some are very speculative while others are
more conservative. The major classifications are:
Residential House
Commercial property
Agriculture land
Suburban land
Unimproved land
Improved real estate
New and used real estate property
Vacation homes
Certified historic rehab structures
Other income-producing real estate such as office buildings, shopping centers and
industrial or commercial properties.
Mortgage such as through certificates package and sold through entities.
36
Advantages
1. The potential for high return in real estate exists due, in part to the frequent use of
financial leverage. Financial leverage is the use of borrowed funds, as in a long-term
mortgage, to try to increase the rate of return that can be earned on the investment.
When the cost of borrowing is less than what can be earned on the investment. When
the cost of borrowing is less than what can be earned on the investment, it is
considered ‘favorable’ leverage, but when the reverse is true, it is considered
‘unfavorable’ leverage.
2. There are potential tax advantages in real estate, as well. First, for personal use
residential property, there is the opportunity to deduct interest paid (first and second
homes, within limitations). There may also be a deduction for property taxes. If the
property is income producing, other expenses may be deductible as well, such as
depreciation, insurance, and repairs. Also, real estate can be traded or exchanged for
similar kind of property on a tax-free basis. And lastly, if the sale of investment
results in a profit, the gain is normally a capital gain.
3. It is considered as a good hedge against inflation.
4. Good quality carefully selected income property will generally produce a positive
cash flow.
5. The owner can take gains from real estate through refinancing the property without
having to sell the property. Real estate is advantageous in this respect, because good
quality properties can be used to secure mortgage loans up to a relatively high
percentage of current value.
Disadvantages
1. There is generally limited marketability in real estate, depending an the nature and
location of the property.
2. There is also a lack of liquidity, in that there no guarantee that the property can be
disposed of at its original value, especially if it must be done within a short period of
time.
3. A relatively large initial investment often is required to buy real estate.
4. If ownership in investment property is held directly be the investor, there are many
‘hands-on’ management duties that must be performed.
5. Real estate is often considered high risk because it is fixed in location and character.
It is particularly vulnerable to economic fluctuations such a interest rate changes
and/or recession.
6. The tax reform Act of 1986 eliminated many of the previously-available tax
advantages relating to real estate.
2.5 Summary
There are a large number of investment alternatives for investors in India. Some of them
are marketable and liquid while others are more risky and less safe. Risk and return are
the major characteristics which an investor has to face the handle.
The investment alternatives can broadly be categorized as under the following heads:
37
Corporate shares, debentures and bonds
Bank deposits
Post office deposits, insurance and NBFCs deposits
Real estate and Mutual Fund schemes
The investor has to choose proper alternatives from among them depending on his
preferences, needs and abilities to take the minimum risk and maximum the returns. To
enable investors to know the degree of risk on debt instruments credit rating is now
made compulsory for them.
38
Unit – 3 : Concept of Savings
Structure of Unit
3.0 Objectives
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Savings: Meaning
3.3 Savings and Investment
3.4. Savings and Economic Growth
3.5 Types of Economic Units
3.6 Components of Savings
3.7 Trends in Savings and Investment
3.8 Summary
3.9 Self Assessment Questions
3.10 Reference Books
3.0 Objectives
3.1 Introduction
The concept of saving is one of the very important concepts in economics and finance.
Economic objectives like price stability, maintaining high levels of income and
employment and high rates of economic growth have a close relationship with the
concept of saving. The concept of saving helps to analyse many macro-economic aspects
such as fluctuations in economic activity between propensity and recession, the process
of economic growth and the method of financing economic growth and the method of
financing gross domestic capital formation.
39
3.2 Savings : Meaning
Savings denotes the gap between income and expenditure or consumption. Whatever is
not consumed out of disposable income is savings. The economy’s savings equation is:
Savings = Personal Disposable income – consumption
The term personal disposable income means the amount of money an individual retains
after he has made all his necessary expenditure. This money is usually kept in banks or
used for investment through which the saver earns an interest income or investment
returns. It is necessary for an individual or an economy to meet any unforeseen expense.
40
(b) Will to save: The willingness to save is influenced by subjective considerations.viz;
(i) Foresight: People save money as a provision against some unforeseen
circumstances which might arise in the future. Few others accumulate wealth
for their dependants. All these prudential considerations can be constituted
under the heading foresight.
(ii) Social and political considerations: Wealth gives power over other men in the
economic sphere and also political and social influence. The desire of prestige,
power and respect in social sphere and political life actuates human being to
save
(iii) Temperamental considerations: There some persons who save neither for
their families nor for their own use but merely because they have acquired a
sort of mania for accumulation of wealth for its own sake.
(iv) Security of Life and Property: If there is security of life and property in a
country the saving is encouraged.
(v) Facilities for Investment: If facilities of profitable investment are available,
then saving is stimulated.
(vi) Monetary Stability: Monetary stability also plays a very important part in
inducing the people to save money. If people apprehended a sharp fall in the
value of money, then saving is discouraged and if the value of money is
expected to rise, the saving is encouraged.
3.2.3 Saving and the Rate of Interest
Interest rate is one of the very important factors which exercises influence on the volume
of saving. Interest rate is defined as the opportunity cost of holding money in hands, i.e.,
the amount foregone for keeping the money in hand. It is the incentive that propels any
person to deposit money in banks.
If the rate of interest is high, it generally, induces people to save more money and if it is
low, the saving is discouraged. However, there are few people who will try to save more
even when the interest rate is low or save less when the interest rate is high just to
provide for themselves a certain annual income for their old age or for their dependants, .
For example, a man wishes to have an annual income of Rs. 4,000 after retirement If, we
suppose the annual rate of interest is 10%, then he has to save Rs. 40,000, to get an
income of Rs. 4,000. If the rate of interest falls down to 5%, then he has t0 save Rs,
80,000 to get the desired sum of Rs. 4,000. There will of course be many people who
will go on saving whatever the rate of interest. Thus it can be said that saving is
encouraged when the interest rate is high and discouraged when it is low.
3.2.4 Use of the Concept of Saving
The concept of saving helps to analyse many macro-economic aspects such as;
Fluctuations in economic activity between propensity and recession
The process of economic growth
41
The method of financing economic growth and
The method of financing gross domestic capital formation.
Changes or fluctuations in economic activity may occur when investment spending is
greater or smaller than the savings at a given level of income. Moreover, the resources
going into the productive process, i.e., capital formation, may have a direct relationship
with economic growth. In other words, growth in economic activity may result either
from widening the application of capital (capital widening) or intensifying its user,
utilizing more capital per unit of labour and output ( capital deepening). Lastly, all
economic activities; agriculture, industrial, or services depend on the availability of
financial resources. These resources needed for economic growth must be generated.
The amount of financial resources and the volume of capital formation depend upon the
intensity and efficiency with which savings are encouraged, gathered and directed
towards investment. An institutional mechanism i.e. the financial system performs this
role to aid economic growth. As more saving moves through the financial system,
financial depth increases.
Savings is often equated with investment in any economy. The savings from households,
companies as well as government are transferred to those who require it for investment
purposes via financial intermediaries like, banks and other financial institutions. Such
investments generally contribute to economic growth by adding to the capital base of the
nation.
When the term investment is used in economics, it refers to the expenditure incurred by
individuals and businesses on the purchase of new plant and machinery, the building of
new houses, factories, schools, construction of roads etc. It is in other words, in the
acquisition of new physical capital. Investment can be called as the addition to the
capital stock of the economy. In brief, it includes the following kinds of expenditures.
(a) Stocks or inventories: The inventories expenditures incurred by businesses on the
purchase of new raw material, semi finished goods and on stock of unsold goods
(inventories) are counted as investment.
(b) Fixed Capital: The expenditure made on new plants and machinery vehicles,
houses facilities, etc. are also included in investment. In the words of J. M. Keynes
Investment means real investment which refers to increase in the real capital stock
of the economy.
42
3.3.1 Types of Investment
1. Autonomous Investment
Investment which does not change with the changes in income level is called as
Autonomous or Government Investment.
The investment which is not influenced by changes in national income is called
autonomous investment. In other words an autonomous investment is independent of the
level of national income. As regards the size of autonomous investment, it is influenced
by many basic factors Such as increase in population, manpower, level of technology,
the role of interest, the expectations of future economic growth and the role of capacity
utilization etc.
Autonomous Investment remains constant irrespective of income level, which means
even if the income is low, the autonomous, Investment remains the same. It refers to the
investment made on houses, roads, public buildings and other parts of Infrastructure. The
Government normally makes such a type of investment.
2. Induced Investment
Investment which changes with the changes in the income level is called as Induced
Investment. Investment in the economy is influenced by the income or output of the
economy. The larger the national income, the higher is the investment. Induced
investment is the change in investment which is induced by the change in the national
income.
Induced Investment is positively related to the income level. That is, at high levels of
income entrepreneurs are induced to invest more and vice-versa. At a high level of
income, Consumption expenditure increases this leads to an increase in investment of
capital goods, in order to produce more consumer goods.
3. Financial Investment
Investment made in buying financial instruments such as new shares, bonds, securities,
etc. is considered as a Financial Investment. However, the money used for purchasing
existing financial instruments such as old bonds, old shares, etc., cannot be considered as
financial investment. It is a mere transfer of a financial asset from one individual to
another. In financial investment, money invested for buying of new shares and bonds as
well as debentures have a positive impact on employment level, production and
economic growth.
4. Real Investment
Investment made in new plant and equipment, construction of public utilities like
schools, roads and railways, etc., is considered as Real Investment. Real investment in
new machine tools, plant and equipments purchased, factory buildings, etc. increases
employment, production and economic growth of the nation. Thus real investment has a
direct impact on employment generation, economic growth, etc.
43
5. Planned Investment
Investment made with a plan in several sectors of the economy with specific objectives
is called as Planned or Intended Investment. Planned Investment can also be called as
Intended Investment because an investor while making investment makes a concrete
plan of his investment.
6. Unplanned Investment
Investment done without any planning is called as an Unplanned or Unintended
Investment. In unplanned type of investment, investors make investment randomly
without making any concrete plans. Hence it can also be called as Unintended
Investment. Under this type of investment, the investor may not consider the specific
objectives while making an investment decision.
7. Gross Investment
Gross Investment means the total amount of money spent for creation of new capital
assets like Plant and Machinery, Factory Building, etc. It is the total expenditure made
on new capital assets in a period.
8. Net Investment
Net Investment is Gross Investment less (minus) Capital Consumption (Depreciation)
during a period of time, usually a year. It must be noted that a part of the investment is
meant for depreciation of the capital asset or for replacing a worn-out capital asset.
Hence it must be deducted to arrive at net investment.
3.4 Savings and Economic Growth
All economics operate with a stock of real and financial assets. Real assets may be
tangible or intangible. Examples of tangible real assets are land natural resources,
buildings, inventories, equipment, durables and infrastructure. Examples of intangible
real assets are human capital, organizational systems and government. Every asset
represents savings either by the owner himself or by lenders of surplus savings. Most of
the real assets are financed through borrowings (suppliers of surplus savings). Financial
assets, or claims, or securities, or instruments come into existence to enable transfer of
savings for investment. Financial assets may be classified may be classified as equity
instruments, the real and financial assets must interact for the process of process of
capital formation to take place.
3.5 Types of Economic Units
In any economy, there are two types of economic units or entities-surplus-spending
economic units and deficit-spending economic units.
Surplus-Spending Economic Units
These are units whose consumption and planned of cash balances or financial assets. The
surplus savings that have is held in the form is, in fact, lending for productive
investment. Such lending by the surplus-spending sector can be termed as demanding
financial assets or supplying loanable funds. In India, the household sector is a net-
44
surplus spending economic unit. The household and other sectors are discussed in detail
in the flow of funds analysis.
Deficit-Spending Economic Units
These are units whose consumption and planned exceeds income. The deficit-spending
economic units have negative savings, they finance needs by borrowing or by decreasing
their stock of financial assets. A borrowing by deficit-spending units creates a supply of
financial securities or demand for loanable funds. In India, the government and the
corporate sector are deficit-spending economic units.
The surplus savings of the surplus-spending household units have to be transferred to the
surplus-spending economic units. A link in the form of a financial system is necessary to
transfer surplus savings to deficit units. The surplus and deficit units can be brought
together either directly through external financing or indirectly through intermediation
(banks and other financial institutions).
Fig. 1.1 illustrates how surplus-spending economic units lend funds to the ultimate
lenders.. This transfer of funds from the surplus-spending sector to the deficit-spending
sector through the financial system leads to capital formation and economic growth, in
the simple terms, is the real national product or output over time.
Ultimate Borrowers
(-)
Ultimate Lenders (+) Financial system
Deficit spending
Surplus-spending economic
Capital Formation economic units
units Y > (C + I)
Y < (C + 1)
Household sector
Rest of the world Government
Corporate
Economic Growth
where: Y = Income
C = Consumption
I = Planned Investment
45
3.6 Components of Savings
3.6.1 Domestic saving primarily consist of three components, viz.
a) Household sector saving,
b) Private corporate sector saving and
c) Public sector saving.
Household sector saving constitutes the largest portion of gross domestic saving.
Household sector saving comprises saving in financial assets and saving in physical
assets. Household saving in financial assets (net) is estimated as gross financial assets
net of financial liabilities, while household saving in physical assets is the net addition to
physical assets by the households.
46
Total Consumption Expenditure (a+b) 69.8 69.1 67.2 68.0 44,788 52,409 60,989
a) Private Final Consumption Expenditure 59.0 57.2 55.8 56.3 37,076 43,499 50,562
b) Government Final Consumption
10.8 11.9 11.4 11.6 7,712 8,910 10,427
Expenditure
Saving-Investment Balance (4-6) -0.3 -2.8 -2.8 -4.2 -1,808 -2,197 -3,762
Public Sector Balance -4.9 -9.0 -5.8 -6.6 -5,822 -4,543 -5,881
Private Sector Balance 5.9 8.3 4.9 4.6 5,296 3,867 4,149
a) Private Corporate Sector -5.3 -3.7 -5.5 -3.4 -2,452 -4,216 -3,046
b) Household Sector 11.2 12.0 10.4 8.0 7,748 8,083 7,195
GDP at Market Prices (at current prices) 100 100 100 100 64,778 77,953 89,749
SRE: Second Revised Estimates. *: First Revised Estimates.
Source: Central Statistics Office.
47
inflation rate, development of the financial sector, etc. of these, the variation in interest
rates is likely to have mainly the substitution effect on the portfolio allocation of
household saving.
Substitution effect is the key to understanding the form in which the households would
decide to save. In other words, the relative rate of return from alternative financial
instruments would determine the decision of the constituents of the household sector to
save in a given instrument.
In that case, one would expect that the portion of total savings held in a particular form
would be based on the yield that the various other instruments would fetch. In fact, the
disposable income of the household is a scale factor that influences the quantum of
resources saved by the households. Hence it is essential to accelerate the growth of
income. Household saving may also depend upon the growth of the financial markets.
The expansion of the banking network as an aftermath of bank nationalization resulted in
tapping a large portion of household saving resources. This has been particularly
important in the case of the rural areas, where bank deposits have emerged as an
important instrument of saving. One may expect that with the dissemination of greater
information regarding alternative instruments of saving, such as insurance funds, there
can be further improvement in the long-term saving from the rural population. At
present, various steps are being taken to raise the contractual savings of the household.
The insurance sector is now open to private sector participation and private sector has
become active in this field. Implementation of the schemes like Old Age, Social and
Income
Securities (OASIS) will provide a fillip to savings. Besides, the Government of India has
reportedly decided to convert the present pay as- you-go scheme into funded pension
scheme. These measures are expected to increase the relative share of contractual
savings and can help raise the saving rate of the economy.
(b) Private Corporate Sector Saving
The stagnation in the saving rate of the corporate sector can be attributed to lower
profitability conditions associated with the slackening of industrial activity as well as the
subdued capital market. In an emerging market driven economy, the competitive
environment would put pressure on costs and hence may necessitate the adoption of
competitive pricing policies by the private corporate sector. In such scenario, it may be
difficult to raise revenue and profits through increase in prices. In view of this, it would
be necessary to seek an increase in profitability mainly through improvement in quality
and the adoption of cost effective measures by the private corporate sector.
The gross saving of the corporate sector comprises of retained profits and depreciation
provision. The retained profits are derived from their income after accounting for various
manufacturing and other expenses, and provisions including the provision for taxes.
48
Perhaps, further rationalization of the corporate tax structure could step up the savings of
the sector. Secondly, depreciation is allowed on the fixed assets acquired by the
companies from time to time. Exemptions on fixed assets at higher rates for providing
the consumption of fixed capital could make the provision for depreciation to rise; thus
making available larger amounts of funds for further investment in the fixed assets. The
higher level of depreciation would increase saving rate and also investment rate.
It is observed in the past that the inventory-sales ratio was on declining trend during the
late nineties. Corporate sector need to efficiently manage inventories on one hand and
demand for industry’s output need to rise from other segments of the economy on the
other hand so as to improve the corporate sector profitability and thereby its savings.
(c) Public Sector Saving
The trends in public sector savings during the last three years of Ninth Plan emphasize
the need for the rigorous fiscal discipline to be adopted during the tenth Plan. Fiscal
management in the economy in recent times is constrained by high fiscal deficits due to
revenue shortfall and expenditure overrun. Public sector savings rate declined in the
eighties as well as in the nineties. The public sector savings declined mainly on account
of a widening of revenue deficits in the Union and State budgets due to higher order of
dis-savings of the Government administrative departments. Therefore, the improvement
in public sector savings largely depends upon a turnaround in the current account of the
Government sector and enhanced surplus generation by public sector undertakings. User
charges need to be indexed to the increase in input costs. Drastic pruning of the
expenditure incurred on subsidies will result in savings. Rationalization in the number of
Government employees and re-deployment of employees need to be considered. Raising
the gross tax to GDP ratio through buoyancy and expansion of the tax base be given
priority. For stepping up of Government sector saving it is essential to eliminate the
revenue deficit and bring down the gross fiscal deficit to minimal level. This would
require strengthening of fiscal correction by means of moderation in expenditure growth
and enhancing revenue buoyancy.
3.6.2 Financial Saving of the Household Sector
Gross financial saving of the household sector include the saving in the form of
currency, bank deposits, non-bank deposits, saving in life insurance fund, saving in
provident and pension fund, claims on government, shares and debentures inclusive of
investment in mutual funds and net trade debt. Financial liabilities cover the loans and
advances from banks, other financial institutions, government, and cooperative non-
credit societies.
49
Table: 3.2 Financial Saving of the Household Sector (Gross)
iii) With Cooperative Banks and Societies 2.9 3.1 3.0 311 297 333
of which :
iv) Mutual Funds (including UTI) -1.1 -1.1 2.5 -116 -106 274
of which :
i) Life Funds of LIC and private insurance
19.4 19.9 16.4 2,095 1,905 1,799
companies
f) Provident and Pension Funds 13.1 14.3 14.6 1,411 1,364 1,596
B. Change in Financial Liabilities 2,780 2,818 3,228
50
The small savings constitute one of the important instruments of household financial
savings in India. The major components of small savings schemes comprise Post Office
Saving Bank Accounts, Post Office Recurring Deposits, Monthly Income Scheme, and
Post Office Time Deposits; National Savings Schemes; and National Savings
Certificates, Public Provident Funds, and Kisan Vikas Patra.
The compositional shift in the small savings outstanding indicates the change in
preferences towards instruments of medium to long maturity. For strengthening the
savings of the household sector, it is important to pay attention to the mobilization of
small savings. Some of the schemes have sizeable participation from middle and higher
income groups.
Interest rates on tax saving schemes are set by the Government and to make these
schemes attractive, rates have been kept typically above the commercial bank deposit
rates of similar maturity. The scope of incentives to savings under the Income Tax Act
has been gradually enlarged over the years. On various small savings instruments three
types of tax incentives are given:
(i) the interest income earned from the instrument is exempt from income taxation
under Section 80L available for Post Office Deposit Schemes and National Savings
Certificates and National Savings Scheme, 1992
(ii) tax rebate equal to 20 per cent on deposits available under Section 88 for National
Savings Certificates and
(iii) Withdrawals are completely exempt under Section 10 applicable to Post Office
Savings Account, Public Provident Fund, and Deposit Scheme for Retiring
Employees.
51
3.6.3 Gross Savings in India
Table: 3.3
Percentage of Gross Saving
Gross savings (% of GDP) in India was last measured at 31.36 in 2011, according to the
World Bank. Gross savings are calculated as gross national income less total
consumption, plus net transfers.
52
10.4 percent from 2010-11 to 2011-12. During the same period savings in physical
assets have gone up from 13.1 percent to 14.3 percent.
Within households, the share of financial savings vis-à-vis physical savings has been
declining in recent years. Financial savings take the form of bank deposits, life
insurance funds, pension and provident funds, shares and debentures, etc.
Financial savings accounted for around 55 per cent of total household savings during
the 1990s. Their share declined to 47 per cent in the 2000-10 decade and it was 36
per cent in 2011-12. In fact, household financial savings were lower by nearly `
90,000 crore in 2011-12 vis-à-vis 2010-11’.
Shares and debentures accounted for 8.3 per cent of total financial savings in
the1980s; their share increased to nearly 13 percent in the 1990s before declining to
4.8 per cent in the 2000s.
The reason given for this decline is high volatility in the equity market. As per the
survey, the poor flow of money in equity market is explained by high volatility.
The survey also highlights the increasing trend in movement of money towards gold.
The returns on the BSE Sensex halved to 10.7 per cent in the 2000s and volatility
increased as can be seen from the higher value of the coefficient of variation at 60.1.
Thus a combination of lower returns and higher volatility in the 2000s vis-à-vis the
1990s could have contributed to the reduced share of shares and debentures in total
financial savings. This, coupled with high inflation, could also be one of the reasons
why gold has become a ‘safe haven’ investment in recent times .
Acquisition of gold by the households in the country tends to have a negative impact
on savings and on household financial investments’
3.8 Summary
India's gross domestic savings rate has increased near-steadily over the Five-Year Plans
and is among the highest in the world in the recent period. The recent savings rate of the
country is comparable to Indonesia, Thailand and Korea but much lower than that of
China, Malaysia and Singapore. Consumer states like the US and the UK had their
savings rate as low as 11% levels in 2009, while the rate is 17% for France and 21.4%
for Germany. Among emerging economies, Brazil had a low savings rate at 16.5%.
while the country's household sector savings rate has stabilised, trends in private
corporate sector savings and public sector savings have influenced the changes in the
domestic savings rate in recent times.
53
3.9. Self Assessment Questions
1. Discuss the concept of saving. Explain the useful concept of savings
2. There is a close relationship between savings and economic growth. Critically
examine
3. Explain surplus spending and deficit spending units of the economic.
4. Why should saving and investment be studied?
5. Examine the saving and investment trends in India.
54
Unit-4 Security Valuation
Structure of Unit
4.0 Objectives
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Meaning of Security
4.3 What is Valuation ?
4.4 Valuation of Security
4.5 Concept of Value
4.6 Bond or Debenture Valuation
4.7 Preferred Stock or Share Valuation
4.8 Common Stock or Equity Share Valuation
4.9 Dividend Valuation Model
4.10 Some Valuations in the Dividend Valuation Model
4.11 Earnings Capitalisation Model
4.12 Rate of Return on Equity Share
4.13 Dividend Capitalisation
4.14 Earning Capitalisation
4.15 Summary
4.16 Self Assessment Questions
4.17 Reference Books
4.0 Objectives
4.1 Introduction
The world security may be defined as, ‘an instrument of promissory note or a method of
borrowing or lending or a source of contributing ot the funds needed by a corporate body
or a non-corporate body.’ In legal sense also security can be defined as, ‘inclusive of
shares, scrips, stocks, bonds, debentures or any other marketable securities of like nature
in or of any debentures of a company or a corporate body, government or semi-
government body, etc.’ It includes all rights and interests, including warrants, loyalty
coupons, etc. issued by any of the bodies organisations or the government.
55
4.2 Meaning of Security
A simple definition of a security is any proof of owner ship or debit that has been
assigned a value and may be sold. (Today, evidence of ownership is likely to be a
computer file, while once it was a written piece of paper.) For the holder, a security
represents an investment as an owner, creditor or rights to ownership and which the
person hopes to gain profit. Examples are stocks, bonds and options.
The securities and Exchange Act of 1934 provides the more complicated definitions.
The term, security means any note, stock treasury stock, bond debenture certificate of
interest or participation in any profit sharing agreement or in any oil, gas or other
mineral royalty or lease any collateral trust certificate, certificate of deposit ,for a
security any put, call straddle option or privilege all any security, certificate of deposit or
group or index of securities.
56
4.4 Valuation of Securities
The objective of a firm is the maximize shareholder's wealth which is represented by the
product of number of share and the current market price per share:
WO=N x Po
Given the number of shares that the shareholder owns, the higher the stock price per
share, the greater will be the stockholder's wealth .Thus, the financial objective of a firm
is to maximize the market value per share in the market .To maximize the stock price,
we have to develop a valuation model and identify the variables that determine the stock
price .Generally speaking, the Value of the firm depends upon two things: (i) The rate of
return and (ii) the element of risk. The
concept of return refers to profits that the firm can earn for the stockholder, and the
concept risk refers to the UN certainty of this profits.
V=f(r, σ)
Where V represents the market price per share, r is the return characteristic and σ is the
risk characteristic of the firm, AS the return and risk characteristics of a firm are
influenced by the three financial Decisions, namely, (i) Investment decisions, (ii)
Financing decisions, and(iii)Divided decisions; the value of the firm can be represented
as the following valuation model:
V=g (IFD)
4.5 Concept of Value
The term value has been used to convey a variety of meanings. The different meanings
of value are useful for different purposes. The various concepts of value are discussed
below:
4.5.1 Book value
Book value of a security is an accounting concept. The book value of an equity share is
equal to the net worth of the firm divided by the number of equity share, where the net
worth is equal to equity capital pulse free reserves. The market value may fluctuate
around the book value but may be higher if the future prospects are good
4.5.2 Market value
The market value of an asset or security is the value at which it can be sold at present. It
is argued that actual market prices are appraisals of knowledgeable buyers and sellers
who are willing to support their opinions with cash. Market price is a definite measure
that can readily be applied to a particular situation and it minimizes the subjectivity of
other methods in favour of a known yardstick of value.
4.5.3 Going Concern Value
In the valuation process the valuation of shares in done on the going concern basis .In a
going concern ,we assess the value of an existing mixture of assets which provide a
stream of income .The going concern value is the price which a firm could realise if it is
57
sold as an operating business .The going concern value will always be higher than the
liquidation value .The difference between these two value will be due to value of
organization , reputation etc .we may command goodwill if the concern is sold as a
going con
Example
if the future maintainable profits of a firm are estimated to be Rs.5,00,000 per annum
and the expected normal rate of return (capitalization rate)is 10%,the going concern
value of the firm than would be: 5, 00,000 x100/10=Rs.50, 00,000
4.5.4 Liquidation Value
If the assets are valued at their breakdown value in the market and take net fixed assets
plus current assets minus current liabilities as if the company is liquidated, then divide
this by the number of shares, the resultant value is the liquidating value per share .This is
also an accounting concept.
4.5.5 Replacement Value
When the company is liquidated and its assets are to be replaced by new ones, their
prices being higher, the replacement value of share will be different from the break down
value some analysts take this replacement value to compare with the market price.
4.5.6 True concept of value
A business enterprise keeps or uses various assets because they generate cash inflows.
Value is the function of cash inflows and there timing and risk. When cash in flows are
discounted at the required rate of return to account for their timing and risk, be get the
fair value or the present value of the asset. In financial decision making such as
valuation securities, it is the present value concept which is relevant symbolically:
V0 = C1/(1+K)1 + C2/(1+K)2 + C3/(1+K)3 +---- Cn/(1+k)n
n
= ∑ = C1/(1+K)t
t=1
Where,
V0= Value of the asset at time zero
C1 , C2 ,C3 = Expected cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, and so on.
k = Discount rate applicable to cash flows.
n = Expected life of the asset.
t = Time period
58
Example
An investor who uses a 10 percent discount rate would value an asset that is expected to
provide annual cash inflow of Rs. 1000 per year for the next ten years as being worth Rs.
6145, as calculated below:
V0 =∑ 1000/t = (ADF10% , 10 year)
t =1(1.10)t
= 1000 *6.145
= Rs.6, 145
For the purpose of valuation, bonds may be classified into two categories:
Vd = R1/(1+kd)1+R2/(1+kd)2…………Rn/(1+kd)n+Mn/(1+kd)n
59
Wither,
Vd = Value of bond or debt
R1,R2....... = Annual interest (Rs.) in period 1,2.....and so on
Kd = required rate of return
M = Maturity value of bond
N = Number of year to maturity
It must be observed form the above equation that as n become large it become difficult
to calculate (1+kd)”.We can make use of present value tables given at the end of the
chapter to simplify our calculations.
Symbolically:
Illustration 1
Solution
= 80/1.10 +80/(1.10)2+80/(1.10)3+80/(1.10)4+80/(1.10)5+1,000/(1.10)5
Using the present value Tables, we can calculate the same as below:
Table 4.1
Year Cash Flows Present Value Present Value of cash
Factor of at 10% flows
1 80 .909 72.72
2 80 .826 66.08
3 80 .751 60.08
4 80 .683 54.64
5 80 .621 49.68
5 = 1000 .621 621.00
60
Total Present Value of Cash Flows = 924.20
He should be willing to pay Rs. = 924.20)
We can also calculate the value of bond by using Annuity Present Value or Annuity
Discount Factor Tables, as below:
Vd = (R)(ADFi,n)+(M)(Dfi,n)
= 80 3.791) + 1,000 (.621)
= Rs.303.28+621
= Rs. 924.28
A company may issue a bond or debenture to be redeemed periodically. In such a case principal
amount is repaid partially each period instead of a lump sum at maturity and hence goes on
decreasing each period at it is calculated on the outstanding amount of bond/debenture. The value
Vd = R1+P1/(1+Kd)1 + R2+P2/(1+Kd)2+......Rn+Pn/(1+kd)n
n
or, Vd = ∑Rt+Pt/(1+kd)t
t
=1
Where,
Illustration 2
Percent, calculate the debenture’s present value for him. What should he be willing to
pay now to purchase the debenture?
61
Solution
Table 4.2
Calculation of Annual Interest and Cash Flows
Principal CashFlows5=
Year Amount Interest(R)
payment (3+4)
( 1) Outstanding (2) (3)
(4)
1 Rs.1000 1000x14/100=Rs.140 Rs.200 Rs.340
2 (1000-200)=800 800x14/100=Rs.112 200 312
200
3 (800-200)=600 600x14/100=Rs.84 284
4 (600-200)=400 400x14/100=Rs.56 200 256
5 (400-200)=200 200x14/100=Rs.28 200 228
Vd = R1 +P1/(1+Kd)1+R2+P2/(1+Kd)2+R3+P3/(1+Kd)3+R4+P4/(1+Kd)4+R5 +P5/(1+Kd)5
= 140+200/1.12+112+200/(1.12)2+84+200/(1.12)3+56+200/(1.12)4+28+200/(1.12)5
Using the present Value Tables, we can calculate the same as below:
Table 4.3
As the present value of debenture is Rs.1046.59, the investor should be willing to pay
Rs. 1,046.59
b) Bonds in Perpetuity
Perpetuity bonds are the bonds which never mature or have infinitive maturity period.
Value of such bonds is simply the discounted value of infinite streams of interest (cash)
flows.
62
Symbolically.
Where,
Mr. A has a perpetual bond of the face value of Rs.1; 000.He receives an interest an
interest of Rs.60 annually. What would be its value if the required rate of return is 10%?
Solution
Vd = R/Kd
= 60/.10
= Rs. 600
4.6.3 Relationship between the Required Rate of Return and Coupon Interest Rate
We have observed earlier that the value of a bond or debenture is influenced by the
coupon or fixed rate of interest payable on the bond and the investor’s required or
desired rate of return.
The relationship between the required rate of return and the coupon interest rate can,
thus, be summarised as below:
(i) If the investor’s required rate of return and the coupon interest rate are the same,
the value of the debt shall be equal to its face value or paid-up value, as the case
may be.
(ii) If the required rate of return is higher than the interest rate payable on bond or
debenture, the value of the bond shall be lower than its face or paid-up value.
63
(iii) If the required rate of return is lower than the interest rate payable on bond or
debenture, the value of the bond shall be higher than its face or paid-up value.
The above relationship can be explained with the help of following illustration.
Illustration 4
Vd = (R)(ADFi,n)+(M)(DFi,n)
Vd = 120(3.605) +1000(.567)
Or Vd = 432.60+567
= 999.60 or say Rs.1000
(a) Vd = 120(3.352) +1000(.497)
= 402.24+497
= 899.24
(b) Vd = 120(3.791) +1000(.621)
= 453.92+621
= Rs.1075.92or say Rs.1076
64
Thus, the basic bond valuation equation as modified would be:
2n
Vd = ∑ R1/2/(1+Kd/2)+(M2n)/(1+kd/2)2n
t =1
or, Vd = [R\2](ADFi/2,2n)+M(Dfi/2,2n)
Illustration 5
An investor holds a debenture of Rs.100 carrying a coupon rate of 12%p.a. The interest
is
Payable half-yearly on 30th June and 31st December every year. The maturity period of
the
Debenture is 6 years and it is to be redeemed at a premium of 10%.The investor’s
required
Rate of Return is 14%p.a. compute the debenture.
Solution
Vd = (R/2)(ADFi/2.2n)+M(DFi/2.2n)
= 12/2(7.943)+110(.444)
= 47.658+48.840
= Rs.96.498orsayRs.96.50
Example
Suppose that the current value of a 8%debenture, of Rs.1000 redeemable after 5 years at
par, is Rs.924.28.The yield to maturity or the internal rate of return con be calculated as
below:
924.28 = 80/(1+kd)1+80/(1+kd)2+80/(1+kd)3+80/(1+kd)4+80/(1+kd)5
65
We can find the value of Kd equal to 10 percent from the above equation by trying
several values of KD by hit and trial method. However, the approximate value of yield to
maturity can also be
Ydm=I+(F-V)/n
0.4F + 0.6V
Where,
Thus, in the above example, the yield to maturity can be calculated as:
= 80+(1000-924.28)/5)
Ydm [4/10x1000]+[6/10x924.28]
= 95.14/954.57
= 10% (appx.)
In case of perpetual or irredeemable bond/debenture, the yield to maturity can be
calculated by using the following simple equation
Vd = R/Kd or kd =R/Vd
Where,
Vd = value of debenture
R = Annual interest payment
Kd = required rate of return or yield to maturity.
Illustration 6
Mr. A has a perpetual bond of the face value of Rs.1000. He receives an interest of Rs.60
annually. Its Current value is Rs.600.What is the yield to maturity?
Solution
Vd = R/Kd
Or Kd = R/Vd
Or kd
Thus, the yield to maturity is 10%
66
4.6.6 Valuation of Zero Coupon/Deep Discount Bond (DDBs/ZCBs)
The deep discount bond does not carry any interest but it is sold by the issuer company
at deep discount from its eventual maturity (nominal) value. The Industrial Development
Bank of India (IDBI) issued such DDBS for the first time in the Indian capital market at
a price of Rs. 2700 against the nominal value of Rs. 1, 00, 000 payable after 25 years.
Since there is no intermediate payment of interest between the date of issue and maturity
date, the DDBS may also be called zero coupon bonds (ZBBs).
The valuation of a deep discount bond can also be made in the same manner as that of
the ordinary bond or debenture .The only point to remember is that there shall be only
one cash flow at the time of maturity in case of a deep discount bond . Thus, the value of
a DDB may be taken as equal to the present value of this future cash flow discount at the
required rate of return of the investor for number of years equal to the life of the bond.
Illustration 7
A deep discount bond (DDB) is issued for a maturity period of 20 years and having a
face value of Rs.1, 00,000. Find out the value of the DDB if the required rate of return is
10%.
Solution
67
Activity B :
Mr. has a perpetual bond of the face value of Rs.1000.He receives an interest of Rs.90
Annually. What would be its value if the required rate of return is 15%?
[Ans.Rs.600]
Preference share is a hybrid security having features of both equity and debt. A fixed
rate of dividend is paid on preference share. Dividend on preference share is payable out
of profits after paying interest on debt but before paying dividend on equity shares. A
preference share is also preferred in repayment as compared to equity share. Thus,
preferred share is more risky than the bond but less risky than the equity share. The
required rate of return on preferred stock is, therefore, greater than that of bonds.
Preferred stock or share can be with a maturity period or redeemable after a certain
period or with perpetuity having no maturity period. The valuation of a preference share
is very much similar to the valuation of a bond. The following formulas can be applied
to find the value of the preference share.
Vd = d/(1+kp)1+d/(1+kp)2+.....d/(1+kp)nPn/(1+kP)n
Where,
Vd = Value of preference share
d = Annual dividend per preference share
Pn = Maturity or redemption price of preference share
Kp = required rate of discount on preference share
Illustration 8
Solution
= 70/1.08+70/(1.08)2+70/(1.08)3+70/(1.08)4+70/(1.08)5+ 1000/(1.08)5
68
Using the present value tables, we can calculate the same as below:
Table 4.3
If the Preference share has no maturity date or is irredeemable and the future dividends
are expected to be constant, the value can be calculated as below:
VP = d/kP
Where,
Mr. A has a irredeemable preference share of Rs.1, 000.He receives an annual dividend
of Rs.80 annually. What will be its value if the required rate of return is 10%?
Solution
VP = d/ kp
= 80/0.10
= Rs.800
The valuation of common stock or equity shares is relatively difficult as compared to the
bonds or, preferred stock. The cash flows of the latter are certain because the rate of
interest on bonds and the rate of dividend on preference shares is known. The cash flows
expected by investors on common stock are uncertain. The earnings and dividends on
69
equity shares are expected to Grow. However, we can determine the value of equity
shares (i) by developing certain models Based on capitalisation of dividend, and (ii)
capitalisation of earnings
The value of an equity share is a function of cash inflows expected by the investors and
the risk Associated with the cash inflows. The investor expects to receive dividend while
holding the Shares and the capital gain on sale of shares. The value of an equity share, in
general, in the Present value of its future stream of dividends. Now, let us develop this
idea in the form Valuation models .let us develop this idea in the form valuation models.
Suppose an investor plans to buy an equity share to hold it for one year and then sell.
The value of the share for him will be the present value of the expected sale price at the
end of the year.
Symbolically:
P0 = D1/1+Ke + P1/1+Ke
Where,
P0 = Current value of the share
D1 = Expected dividend at the end of year 1
P1 = Expected price of share at the end of year 1
Ke = the required rate of return on equity or the capitalisation/discount
rate.
Illustration10
Mr. X is planning to buy an equity share, hold if for one year and then sell it. The
expected
Dividend at the end of year 1 is Rs. 7 and the expected sale precedes Rs. 200 after 1
year.
Determine the value of the share to investor assuming the discount rate of 15% .
Solution
70
PO = D1/(1+Ke)+D2/(1+Ke)2 + P2/(1+Ke)2
Illustration11
Mr. X is planning to buy an equity share, hold it for 2 years and then sell it. The
expected Dividend at the end of year 1 is Rs.7 and Rs.7.50 at the end of year 2. The
expected selling price Of the share at the end of year 2is Rs.220.calculate the value of
the share today taking 15% Discount rate.
Solution
= Rs. 178
Po = (D) (ADFi,n) + (Pn) (Dfi,n) 4.8.4 n-Period Valuation Model
Similarly, if the investor plans to hold the share for n years and then sell, the value of
the share
Would be:
P0= D1/(1+Ke)+D2/(1+Ke)2+ .... + Dn(1+Ke)n+Pn(1+Ke)n
n
P0 = ∑ Dt /(1+Ke)t+Pn/(1+Ke)n
t=1
If the expected dividend in different periods is (D) constant, we can calculate the value
of the share by using annuity discount factor tables, as given below
Illustration12
An investor expects a dividend of Rs.5 per share for each of 10 years and a Selling price
of Rs. 80 at the end of 10 years. Calculate the present value of share if his required rate
is 12 %.
Solution
P0 = (D) (ADFi,n) + (Pn) (Dfi,n)
71
Activity C :
An investor holds a debenture of Rs. 1,000 carrying a coupon rate of10%p.a.The interest
is payable semi-annually. The maturity period of the debenture is 7 years and it is to be
redeemed at a premium of 10%.The investor’s required rate of return is 12%p.a
Calculate the value of the debenture.
[Ans.Rs.950.95]
Dividend valuation model is the generalized from of common stock valuation. The
concept of this model is that many investors do not contemplate selling their share in the
near future. They want to hold the share for a very long period, say infinity. In case, the
share is the capitalized value of an infinity stream of future dividends.
P0=∑∞ Dt/(1+Ke)t
P0 = D / Ke
Illustration 13
A company is presently paying a dividend of Rs.6 per share and is expected not to
deviate from this in future. Calculate the value of the share if the required rate of return
is 15%.
P0 = D/Ke
= 6/.15
= Rs.40
4.10.2 Constant Growth Case
It the dividends of a firm are expected to grow at a constant rate forever, the value of the
share can be calculated as:
72
P0 = D1/Ke-g = D0(1+g)/Ke-g
Where,
D0 = Current dividend
D1 = Expected dividend in year 1
Ke = required rate of return on equity
G = Expected percent growth in dividend.
Illustration 14
A company is expected to pay a dividend of Rs.6 per share next year. The dividends are
expected to grow perpetually at a rate of 9 percent. What is the value of its share if the
required rate of return is 15%?
Solution
P0 = D1/Ke-g
= 6/0.15-.09
= 6/.06
= Rs.100
Illustration15
The current price of a company’s share is Rs.75 and dividend per share isRs.5. Calculate
the dividend growth rate, if its capitalization rate is 12%.
Solution
P0 = D1/Ke-g= D0 (1+g)/Ke-g
75 = 5(1+g)/0.12-g
9.0-75 g = 5+5g
Or, -80g = -4
Or, g = -4/-80
= 0.05 or 5%
Illustration16
Solution
P0 =D1/Ke-g
= 5/0.12-0.10
= 5/0.02
= Rs. 250
73
As the value of the share (Rs.250) is more than its current price of Rs.200, the investor
should buy the share
Illustration 17
The book value per share of a company is Rs.145.50 and its rate of return on equity is
10%. The company follows a dividend policy of 60% pay out. What is the price of its
share if the capitalization rate is 12%.
Solution
n α
P0 = ∑ D0(1+gs)t + ∑ Dn (1+gn)t-n
t=1
(1+ke)t t= n+1 (1+ke)t
The following steps are involved in solving the above equation:
(1) Calculate the present value of expected value of expected dividends during
supernormal Growth period.
(2) Calculate the present value of the share at the end of the supernormal growth period.
Pn = Dn +1/Ke-gn
74
(3) Discount Pnback to P0 to find out its present value at t=0.
P0 =Pn (1/1+Ke) n
(4) Add the present value of expected dividend as calculated in step 1 with the present
value P0 as calculated in step3.
Illustration 18
A company is currently paying a dividend of Rs.4.24 per share. The dividend is expected
to grow at a 18 percent annual rate for five years and then at 12 percent for ever. What is
the present value of the share, if the capitalization rate is 14 percent?
Table 4.4
P0 =Pn(1/1+ke)
= P5(1/(1.14)5)
= 542.50/(1.14)5
= 542.50(0.519)
= Rs.281.56
(4) Present value of share today
75
4.11 Earnings Capitalisation Model
When the earnings of the firm are stable or when there is an expansion situation, the
value of an equity share can be determined by capitalization of earnings. The earnings of
the firm will best able if it neither retains any earnings nor employs any external
financing. In such a situation, the retention rate, b is zero and the growth rate, be would
also be zero because g = br. Further as there is no retention, determined as:
Po = Eo(1-b)
Ke-br
P0 = E0 as proved below:
Ke
P0 = E0(1-b)
ke-br
Or, P0 = E0(1-b)
(ke-bke)
Or, P0 = E0(1-b)
Ke(1-b)
Or, P0 = Eo/ ke
Illustration 19
Calculate the price of an equity share from the following data:]
Earnings per share (ESP) Rs.20
Internal Rate of Return (r) 20%
Equity Capitalization Rate (ke)
Solution
P0 = E 0
Ke
= 20/.20
= Rs.100
76
Illustration 20
A Company decides that it will not pay any dividends for 20 years. After that time it is
expected that the company could pay dividend of Rs.15 per share indefinitely. However,
the company at present could pay Rs.3 per share. The required rate of this company’s
shareholder is 10 percent. What is the loss to each shareholder as a result of the policy of
the company? Calculate the value of the equity share
Solution
The value of an equity share is a function of cash inflows expected by the investors and
the risk associated with the cash inflows. It is calculated by discounting the future stream
of dividends at the required rate of return, called the capitalization rate. The required rate
of return depends upon the element of risk associated with investment in shares. It will
be equal to the risk-free rate of interest plus the premium for risk. Thus, the required rate
of return, Ke, for a share is,
Further, if the dividends of a firm are expected to grow at a constant rate forever and the
market is in equilibrium, there should be no difference between the present value and the
market price of the share. In such a situation, the required rate of return can be calculated
with the following
Equation:
P0 = D1
Ke-g
Or, Ke = D1 +g
P0
77
Where,
P0 = Current price of the share
Ke = required rate of return
D1= Expected dividend in year 1
g = Rate of growth
Sometimes, we may be required to calculate the rate of return which investor can expect
if he purchases an equity share at the current market price (P0) hold it for one year and
then sell the same at the market price prevailing at the end of one year (P1). The
expected rate return, re, can be calculated with the following formula
P0 = D1 + P1
(1+re)
re = D1 + g
P0
Illustration 21
The equity share of a company is currently selling at Rs. 80. It is expected that the
company will Pay a dividend of Rs. 4 at the end of one year and the share can be sold at
a price of Rs. 88. Calculate the return on share. Should an investor buy his capitalization
rate is 12 %
Solution
re = D1 +P1-P0
P0 P0
= 4/80 + 88–80/80
= 0.05 +0.10
= 0.15 or 15%
The investor should buy the share as expected return on share (15%) is higher than the
capitalization rate of 10%.
78
Illustration 22
The current price of a company’s share is Rs. 60.The Company is expected to pay a
dividend of Rs.4.80 per share at the end of one year. The dividends are expected to grow
perpetually at a rate of 6 percent. If an investor’s required rate of return is 15 percent,
should he buy the share?
Solution
re = D1+ g
P0
= 4.80/60+0.06
= 0.08+0.06
= 0.14 or 14%
As the expected rate of return, 14% is less than the 15% required rate of return, they
should not be bought.
Sometimes, the firms do not declare dividends so as to finance their future programs. In
such case, the dividends are non-existent, but the market prices may be high. In these
cases, it is seen that the investors use earnings as a proxy for dividends in the above
models. The dividend capitalization model and earning capitalization model yield the
same result only when all the earning are paid out as dividends. Then there is no growth
P=E1/i where the earning (E1)(or dividends) grow at a constant rate, then the formula
is P=E1/i-g
When a portion of the earning is retained, the dividend capitalization model is to be
used. When growth in the expected future dividend is taken as a function of retained that
are reinvested in profitable projects, it is double counting to include both the earning and
the future growth rate of dividend in the same model as the latter depend upon the
former also, in part .
It is to be noted that higher future dividend are an alternative to present dividend and are
not an addition to the present dividend stream. If E =D, the firm cannot grow. Thus the
investors who use the price-earnings ratio tend to overstate the market price due to the
double counting problem. In reality, the earning do not grow at a constant rate nor the
dividend. For theoretical nicety, these assumptions are made. But as limitations, it
should be noted that the desired rate of return and the actual rate may not coincide and
there is a element of subjectivity in the desired rate of return. Besides, the use of price-
earnings ratio following the dividend capitalization model, suffers from the fact that
79
earning data are historical but price is the present price, which already takes into account
the past dividends, and the future dividend flow may not depend on the past earning, and
price is paid for the future returns.
Use of P/E Ratio
Many practicing analysts use the simple multiplier technique of P/E ratio, but not the
present value models referred to adobe.
The ratio P/E = Current market Price/Earnings per share.
By a analysis of the company’s performance, the analyst computes the P/E multiplier
(the times P is higher than the earning per share). In this case, he forecasts the future
earnings per share for the next six months or one year and uses this historical multiplier
of the same company or of the industry average multiplier to arrive at the market price.
The resulting market price is company whit the actual market price to find out whether it
is overpriced or underpriced. If it is overpriced, it is to be sold as per the principles of
trading operations based on fundamental analysis.
The valuation technique based on discounting is cumbersome and serious forecasting
problems in the process. The discount rate to be subjective factor and a number of
assumptions are required to be made regarding the dividend flows in the present value
models. Therefore, analysts and investors use only the P/E ratio for security valuation in
practice. To sum up, the models more commonly used for security pricing are the
dividend discounting method / earnings discounting method and the P/E ratio model.
These models are dealt with in detail below.
4.15 Summary
In India, the valuation of securities used to be done by the CCI for the purpose of fixing
up the premium on new issue of existing companies. These guidelines used by CCI were
applicable up to May 1992, when the CCI was abolished. Although the present market
price will be taken into account a more rational price used to be worked out by the CCI
on certain criteria. Thus, the CCI used the concept of Net Asset Value (NAV) and Profit-
Earning Capacity Value (PECV)as the basis for fixing up the premium on share. Thanet
worth includes equity capital plus free reserves and surplus less contingent liabilities.
The PECV is estimated by multiplying the earnings per share by a capitalization rate of
15% for manufacturing companies, 20% for trading companies and 17.5% In the case of
intermediate companies. Earnings per share (EPS) are calculated by dividing the three-
year average post-tax profits by the total number of equity shares. Thus, if EPS is Rs.5
and if the price earnings multiplier is 15, the price of share, which is reflected by the
PECV, should be Rs.5*15=75(if it is a manufacturing company). To be more specific,
the Net Asset Value of a company (NAV) is equal to total assets less liabilities,
borrowings, debts, preference capital and contingent liabilities which is to be divided by
the number of shares.
80
The (PECV) is obtained by capitalizing the average profits after tax (over the past three
years) by a rate varying from 15% to 20% depending on the nature of the activity of the
company as already noted. The fair value of the share in the average of the NAV and
PECV. This fair value (FV)is taken into account for comparison with the average market
price over the preceding 3 years and the average market price should be less than the fair
value by at least 20%.If the average market price in 20%to 50% of the FV, the
capitalization rate to be used is 12%. If it is 50% to 75%of the FV the capitalization rate
is 10% and if it is more than 75% of FV, the capitalization rate is 8%.
4.16 Self Assessment Questions
1. Explain the various concepts of valuation. Which this is the most appropriate concept
for making financial decisions.
2. Explain in detail the method of valuation of any equity share.
3. How will you determine the value of a bond with a maturity period?
4. What do you understand by bonds in perpetuity? How are they valued? Explain
5. Is the valuation of preference share different from the valuation of bonds? Illustrate.
6. What is a Warrant? How is it valued?
7. Face value of a 15% debenture is Rs.1; 000.The maturity period of the debenture is 5
years. What is the value of the debenture if the required rate of return is; (a) 15% and
(b) 12%? [Ans. (a) Rs. 1,000, (b) Rs.1108]
8. Mr. X has a perpetual bond of the face value of Rs.1000.He receives an interest
ofRs.80 annually. Its current value is Rs.1200.What is the yield to maturity?
[Ans.Rs.6.667%]
4.17 Reference Books
Bishnoi Mr. Ashutosh : Managing and Marketing of Financial Services.
BLB Institute of Financial Markets : Portfolio and Fund Management.
Avadhani V.A.:Investment and securities Market in India, Himalaya Publishing
house Bombay
Khan M.Y.: Indian Financial System-theory& practice, Vikas Publishing house, New
Delhi.
Shiva Ram S.: Global Finance Services Industry, South Asia Publications, New
Delhi
Joel Bersis: Risk Management in Banking Johan Wiley.
Bhattacharya K.M.: Risk Management in Indian Banks, Himalaya Publishing House,
New Delhi.
Dr. Agarwal V.P.: Portfolio Prabandh and pratibhuti Vishleshan, Sahitya Bhawan
Publications, Agra .
81
Unit-5 Stock Exchange: An Introduction
Structure of Unit
5.0 Objectives
5.1 Introduction
5.2 What is Securities Market?
5.3 Types of Securities Market
5.4 Difference between Primary and Secondary Market
5.5 What is Stock Exchange?
5.6 History of Stock Exchange
5.7 Features of Stock Exchange
5.8 Functions of Stock Exchange
5.9 The Stock Exchanges of India
5.10 Role of Stock Exchange in Capital Market
5.11 Benefits of Stock Exchanges
5.12 Listing of Securities
5.13 Summary
5.14 Self Assessment Questions
5.15 Reference Books
5.0 Objectives
After completing this unit, you would be able to:
82
5.1 Introduction
The securities markets in India have witnessed several policy initiatives, which has
developed the market micro-structure, modernized operations and broadened investment
choices for the investors. The irregularities in the securities transactions in the last
quarter of 2000-01, hastened the introduction and implementation of several reforms and
hence enhance the investor protection, and effectiveness of SEBI as the capital market
regulator.
Securities market predominantly deal in equity shares however, it also trade bonds and
debentures. Well regulated and active securities market promotes capital formation in
economy. Growth of primary market depends upon secondary market. The health of an
economy is reflected by the growth of the stock market.
a) Primary Market
The primary market provides the channel for sale of new securities. It is that part of the
capital markets that deals with the issuance of new securities. Primary market provides
opportunity to issuers of securities; government as well as corporates, to raise funds to
meet their requirements. They may issue the securities at face value, or at a
discount/premium and these securities may take a variety of forms such as equity, debt
83
etc. They may issue the securities in domestic market and/or international market. The
primary market issuance is done either through public issues or private placement. There
are two major types of issuers who issue securities. The corporate entities issue mainly
debt and equity instruments (shares, debentures, etc.), while the governments (central
and state governments) issue debt securities (dated securities, treasury bills). Primary
markets create long term instruments through which corporate entities borrow from
capital market.
The primary market is the market where the securities are sold for the first time.
Therefore it is also called the new issue market (NIM).
In a primary issue, the securities are issued by the company directly to investors.
The company receives the money and issues new security certificates to the
investors.
Primary issues are used by companies for the purpose of setting up new business or
for expanding or modernizing the existing business.
The primary market performs the crucial function of facilitating capital formation in
the economy.
The new issue market does not include certain other sources of new long term
external finance, such as loans from financial institutions.
The financial assets sold can only be redeemed by the original holder.
b) Secondary Market
Secondary market refers to a market where securities are traded after being primarily
offered to the public in the primary market and/or listed on the Stock Exchange.
Majority of the trading is done in the secondary market. Secondary market comprises of
equity markets and the debt markets.
The secondary market enables participants who hold securities to adjust their holdings in
response to changes in their assessment of risk and return. They are also easy sold for
cash to meet the liquidity needs of investors. The secondary market has further two
components, namely the over-the-counter (OTC) market and the exchange-traded
market/ an exchange.
The secondary market is used for variety of assets which vary from loans to stocks, from
fragmented to centralized, and from illiquid to very liquid. The major stock exchanges
are the most visible example of liquid secondary markets - in this case, for stocks of
publicly traded companies.
84
Features of secondary market are:
Secondary market comes after primary market, i.e. any new security cannot be
sold for the first time in the secondary market. New securities are first sold in the
primary market and thereafter comes the turn of the secondary market.
The secondary market has a particular place which is called Stock Exchange.
However, it is not essential that all the buying and selling of securities will be done
only through stock exchange. Two individuals can buy or sell them mutually. This
will also be called a transaction of the secondary market. Generally, most of the
transactions are made through the medium of stock exchange.
The rates of shares and other securities often fluctuate in the share market. Many
new investors enter this market to exploit this situation. This leads to an increase in
investment in the industrial sector of the country and hence increases new
investment.
85
purpose of assisting, regulating and controlling business in buying, selling and dealing in
securities." It is one of the important constituent of securities market. It is the center of a
network of transactions where securities buyers meet sellers at a certain price. Thus it is
an organized and regulated financial market for the purchase and sale of industrial and
financial securities at prices governed by the forces of demand and supply. It is a
convenient place where trading in securities is conducted in systematic manner i.e. as per
certain rules and regulations. It is a form of exchange which provides services for stock
brokers and traders to trade stocks, bonds, and other securities. A stock exchange is not
necessary a physical facility and with the advancement of information technology are
increasingly rare those traders that exchange their stocks in the floor of a major stock
exchange. Stock exchanges also provide facilities for issue and redemption of securities
and other financial instruments, and capital events including the payment of income and
dividends.
Stock exchanges basically serve as (1) primary markets where corporates, governments,
and other incorporated bodies can raise capital by channeling savings of the investors
into productive projects; and (2) secondary markets where investors can sell their
securities to other investors for cash, thus reducing the risk of investment and
maintaining liquidity in the system. Stock exchanges impose stringent rules, listing
requirements, and statutory requirements that are binding on all listed and trading
parties. It performs various functions and offers useful services to investors and
borrowing companies. It is an investment intermediary and facilitates economic and
industrial development of a country. Therefore, it is indispensable for the smooth and
orderly functioning of corporate sector in a free market economy. The main stock market
in the United States is New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). In Europe, examples of stock
exchanges include the London Stock Exchange, the Paris Bourse, and the Deutsche
Bourse. In Asia, the main stock exchanges include the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Hong
Kong Stock Exchange, and the Bombay Stock Exchange. In Latin America, there are
such exchanges as the BOVESPA in Brazil and the MERVAL in Argentina. London
stock exchange (LSE) is the oldest stock exchange in the world. While Bombay stock
exchange (BSE) is the oldest in India.
86
(then) princely amount of Rupee 1. This banyan tree still stands in the Horniman Circle
Park, Mumbai. In 1860, the exchange flourished with 60 brokers. In fact the ‘Share
Mania' in India began with the American Civil War broke and the cotton supply from the
US to Europe stopped. Further the brokers increased to 250. The informal group of
stockbrokers organized themselves as the ‘The Native Share and Stockbrokers
Association’ which, in 1875, was formally organized as the Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE).
BSE was shifted to an old building near the Town Hall. In 1928, the plot of land on
which the BSE building now stands (at the intersection of Dalal Street, Bombay
Samachar Marg and Hammam Street in downtown Mumbai) was acquired, and a
building was constructed and occupied in 1930. Premchand Roychand was a leading
stockbroker of that time, and he assisted in setting out traditions, conventions, and
procedures for the trading of stocks at Bombay Stock Exchange and they are still
being followed. Several stock broking firms in Mumbai were family run
enterprises, and were named after the heads of the family.
In 1956, the Government of India recognized the Bombay Stock Exchange as the first
stock exchange in the country under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act. The
most decisive period in the history of the BSE took place after 1992. In the
aftermath of a major scandal with market manipulation involving a BSE member
named Harshad Mehta, BSE responded to calls for reform with intransigence. The
foot-dragging by the BSE helped radicalise the position of the government, which
encouraged the creation of the National Stock Exchange (NSE), which created an
electronic marketplace.
NSE started trading on 4 November 1994. Within less than a year, NSE turnover
exceeded the BSE. BSE rapidly automated, but it never caught up with NSE spot market
turnover. The second strategic failure at BSE came in the following two years. NSE
embarked on the launch of equity derivatives trading. BSE responded by political effort,
with a friendly SEBI chairman (D. R. Mehta) aimed at blocking equity derivatives
trading. The BSE and D. R. Mehta succeeded in delaying the onset of equity derivatives
trading by roughly five years. But this trading, and the accompanying shift of the spot
market to rolling settlement, did come along in 2000 and 2001 - helped by another
major scandal at BSE involving the then President Mr. Anand Rathi. NSE scored nearly
100% market share in the runaway success of equity derivatives trading, thus consigning
BSE into clearly second place. Today, NSE has roughly 66% of equity spot turnover
and roughly 100% of equity derivatives turnover.
87
5.7 Features of Stock Exchange
Characteristics or features of stock exchange are:-
88
5.8 Functions of Stock Exchange
a) Continuous and ready market for securities: Stock exchange provides a ready and
continuous market for purchase and sale of securities. It provides ready market for
buying and selling of securities.
b) Facilitates evaluation of securities: Stock exchange is useful for the evaluation of
industrial securities. This enables investors to know the true worth of their holdings
at any time. Comparison of companies in the same industry is possible through
market prices.
c) Encourages capital formation: Stock exchange hastens the process of capital
formation. It creates the habit of saving, investing and risk taking among the
investing class and converts their savings into profitable investment. It acts as an
instrument of capital formation. In addition, it also acts as a channel for safe and
profitable investment.
d) Provides safety and security in dealings: Stock exchange provides safety, security
and equity in dealings as transactions are conducted as per well defined rules and
regulations. The managing body of the exchange keeps control on the members.
Fraudulent practices are also checked effectively. Due to various rules and
regulations, stock exchange functions as the custodian of funds of genuine investors.
e) Regulates company management: Listed companies have to comply with rules and
regulations of concerned stock exchange and work under the vigilance (i.e
supervision) of stock exchange authorities.
f) Facilitates public borrowing: Stock exchange serves as a platform for marketing
Government securities also. It enables government to raise public debt easily and
quickly.
g) Provides clearing house facility: Stock exchange provides a clearing house facility
to members. It settles the transactions among the members quickly and with ease.
The members have to pay or receive only the net dues (balance amounts) because of
the clearing house facility.
h) Facilitates healthy speculation: Healthy speculation, keeps the exchange active.
Normal speculation is not dangerous but provides more business to the exchange.
However, excessive speculation is undesirable as it is dangerous to investors & the
growth of corporate sector.
i) Serves as Economic Barometer: Stock exchange indicates the state of health of
companies and the national economy. It acts as a barometer of the economic
situation / conditions.
89
5.9 The Stock Exchanges of India
More than 5000 companies are listed on BSE making it world's No. 1 exchange in terms
of listed members. The companies listed on BSE Ltd command a total market
capitalization of USD 1.32 Trillion as of January 2013. It is also one of the world’s
leading exchanges (3rd largest in December 2012) for Index options trading (Source:
World Federation of Exchanges).
BSE also provides a host of other services to capital market participants including risk
management, clearing, settlement, market data services and education. It has a global
reach with customers around the world and a nation-wide presence. BSE systems and
processes are designed to safeguard market integrity, drive the growth of the Indian
capital market and stimulate innovation and competition across all market segments.
BSE is the first exchange in India and second in the world to obtain an ISO 9001:2000
certification. It is also the first Exchange in the country and second in the world to
receive Information Security Management System Standard BS 7799-2-2002
certification for its On-Line trading System (BOLT). It operates one of the most
respected capital market educational institutes in the country (the BSE Institute Ltd.).
BSE also provides depository services through its Central Depository Services Ltd.
(CDSL) arm.
BSE’s popular equity index - the S&P BSE SENSEX - is India's most widely tracked
stock market benchmark index. It is traded internationally on the EUREX as well as
leading exchanges of the BRCS nations (Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa).
90
BSE has won several awards and recognitions that acknowledge the work done and
progress made like The Golden Peacock Global CSR Award for its initiatives in
Corporate Social Responsibility, NASSCOM - CNBC-TV18’s IT User Awards, 2010 in
Financial Services category, Skoch Virtual Corporation 2010 Award in the BSE STAR
MF category and Responsibility Award (CSR) by the World Council of Corporate
Governance. Its recent milestones include the launching of BRICSMART indices
derivatives, BSE-SME Exchange platform, S&P BSE GREENEX to promote
investments in Green India.
The NSE boasts of screen based trading system. In the NSE, the available system
provides complete market transparency of trading operations to both trading members
and the participants and finds a suitable match. The NSE does not have trading floors as
in conventional stock exchanges. The trading is entirely screen based with automated
order machine. The screen provides entire market information at the press of a button. At
the same time, the system provides for concealment of the identity of market operations.
The screen gives all information which is dynamically updated. As the market
participants sit in their own offices, they have all the advantages of back office support,
and facility to get in touch with their constituents.
a) Wholesale debt market segment;
91
entrepreneurs in getting the required capital. The Exchange was set up to aid enterprising
promoters in raising finance for new projects in a cost effective manner and to provide
investors with a transparent and efficient mode of trading.
Modelled along the lines of the NASDAQ market of USA, OTCEI introduced many
novel concepts to the Indian capital markets such as screen-based nationwide trading,
sponsorship of companies, market making and scripless trading. As a measure of success
of these efforts, the Exchange today has 115 listings and has assisted in providing capital
for enterprises that have gone on to build successful brands for themselves like VIP
Advanta, Sonora Tiles & Brilliant mineral water, etc.
Securities are traded on OTCEI through the 'OTCEI Automated Securities Integrated
System' (OASIS); a state-of-art screen based trading system. OASIS combines the
principles of order driven and quotes driven markets and enables trading members to
access a transparent and efficient market directly through a nationwide
telecommunication network.
92
Complementing the stock trading function, ISE's depository participant (DP) services
reach out to intermediaries and investors at industry-leading prices. The Research Cell
has been established with the objective of carrying out quality research on various facets
of the Indian financial system in general and the capital market in particular.
Objectives:
a) Create a single integrated national-level solution with access to multiple markets by
providing high cost-effective service to investors across the country.
b) Create a liquid and vibrant national-level market for all listed companies in general
and small capital companies in particular.
c) Optimally utilizing the existing infrastructure and other resources of Participating
Stock Exchanges, which are under-utilized now.
d) Provide a level playing field to small Trading Members by offering opportunity to
participate in a national market for investment-oriented business.
e) Provide clearing and settlement facilities to the Trading Members across the country
at their doorstep in a decentralized mode.
f) Spread demat trading across the country.
93
d) Liquidity of investment: Stock exchanges provide liquidity of investment to the
investors. Investors can sell out any of their investments in securities at any time
during trading days and trading hours on stock exchanges. Thus, stock exchanges
provide liquidity of investment. The on-line trading and online settlement of
DEMAT securities facilitates the investors to sell out their investments and realize
the proceeds within a day or two. Even investors can switch over their investment
from one security to another according to the changing scenario of capital market.
e) Investment priorities: Stock exchanges facilitate the investors to decide his
investment priorities by providing him the basket of different kinds of securities of
different industries and companies. He can sell stock of one company and buy a
stock of another company through stock exchange whenever he wants. He can
manage his investment portfolio to maximize his wealth.
f) Investment safety: Stock exchanges through their by-laws, Securities and Exchange
Board of India (SEBI) guidelines, transparent procedures try to provide safety to the
investment in industrial securities. Government has established the National Stock
Exchange (NSE) and Over the Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI) for investors'
safety. Exchange authorities try to curb speculative practices and minimize the risk
for common investor to preserve his confidence.
g) Wide Marketability to Securities: Online price quoting system and online buying
and selling facility have changed the nature and working of stock exchanges.
Formerly, the dealings on stock exchanges were restricted to its head quarters. The
investors across the country were absolutely in dark about the price fluctuations on
stock exchanges due to the lack of information. But today due to Internet, on line
quoting facility is available at the computers of investors. As a result, they can keep
track of price fluctuations taking place on stock exchange every second during the
working hours. Certain T.V. Channels like CNBC are fully devoted to stock market
information and corporate news. Even other channels display the on line quoting of
stocks. Thus, modern stock exchanges backed up by internet and information
technology provide wide marketability to securities of the industries. Demat facility
has revolutionized the procedure of transfer of securities and facilitated marketing.
h) Financial resources for public and private sectors: Stock Exchanges make
available the financial resources available to the industries in public and private
sector through various kinds of securities. Due to the assurance of liquidity,
marketing support, investment safety assured through stock exchanges, the public
issues of securities by these industries receive strong public response (resulting in
oversubscription of issue).
i) Funds for Development Purpose: Stock exchanges enable the government to
mobilize the funds for public utilities and public undertakings which take up the
developmental activities like power projects, shipping, railways, telecommunication,
94
dams & roads constructions, etc. Stock exchanges provide liquidity, marketability,
price continuity and constant evaluation of government securities.
j) Indicator of Industrial Development: Stock exchanges are the symbolic indicators
of industrial development of a nation. Productivity, efficiency, economic-status,
prospects of each industry and every unit in an industry is reflected through the price
fluctuation of industrial securities on stock exchanges. Stock exchange Sensex and
price fluctuations of securities of various companies tell the entire story of changes
in industrial sector.
k) Barometer of National Economy: Stock exchange is taken as a Barometer of the
economy of a country. Each economy is economically symbolized (indicators) by its
most significant stock exchange. New York Stock Exchange, London Stock
Exchange, Tokyo Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange are considered as
barometers of U.S.A, United Kingdom, Japan and India respectively. At both
national and international level these stock exchanges represent the progress and
conditions of their economies.
l) Thus, stock exchange serves the nation in several ways through its diversified
economic services which include imparting liquidity to investments, providing
marketability, enabling evaluation and ensuring price continuity of securities.
95
For investors:
a) Liquidity of the investment is increased.
b) The securities dealt on a stock exchange are good collateral security for loans.
c) The stock exchange safeguards interests of investors through strict enforcement of
rules and regulations.
d) The present net worth of investments can be easily known by the daily quotations.
Listing at BSE
The BSE Limited has a dedicated Listing Department to grant approval for listing of
securities of companies in accordance with the provisions of the Securities Contracts
(Regulation) Act, 1956, Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules, 1957, Companies Act,
1956, Guidelines issued by SEBI and Rules, Bye-laws and Regulations of BSE.
BSE has set various guidelines and forms that need to be adhered to and submitted by
the companies. These guidelines will help companies to expedite the fulfillment of the
various formalities and disclosure requirements that are required at various stages of:
Public Issues
Initial Public Offering
Further Public Offering
Preferential Issues
Indian Depository Receipts
Amalgamation
Qualified Institutions Placements
A company intending to have its securities listed on BSE has to comply with the listing
requirements prescribed by it. Some of the requirements are as under:
96
1. Minimum Listing Requirements for New Companies
The following eligibility criteria have been prescribed for listing of companies on BSE,
through Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) & Follow-on Public Offerings (FPOs):
The minimum post-issue paid-up capital of the applicant company (hereinafter
referred to as "the Company") shall be Rs. 10 crore for IPOs & Rs.3 crore for FPOs;
and
The minimum issue size shall be Rs. 10 crore; and
The minimum market capitalization of the Company shall be Rs. 25 crore (market
capitalization shall be calculated by multiplying the post-issue paid-up number of
equity shares with the issue price).
In respect of the requirement of paid-up capital and market capitalization, the issuers
shall be required to include in the disclaimer clause forming a part of the offer
document that in the event of the market capitalization (product of issue price and
the post issue number of shares) requirement of BSE not being met, the securities of
the issuer would not be listed on BSE.
The applicant, promoters and/or group companies, shall not be in default in
compliance of the listing agreement.
The above eligibility criteria would be in addition to the conditions prescribed under
SEBI (Issue of Capital & Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2009.
The Issuer shall comply to the guidance/ regulations applicable to listing as bidding
inter alia from
Securities Contracts (Regulations) Act 1956
Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules 1957
Securities and Exchange Board of India Act 1992
And any other circular, clarifications, guidelines issued by the appropriate authority.
Companies Act 1956
97
3. Permission to Use the Name of BSE in an Issuer Company's Prospectus
Companies desiring to list their securities offered through a public issue are required to
obtain prior permission of BSE to use the name of BSE in their prospectus or offer for
sale documents before filing the same with the concerned office of the Registrar of
Companies.
BSE has a Listing Committee, comprising of market experts, which decides upon the
matter of granting permission to companies to use the name of BSE in their
prospectus/offer documents. This Committee evaluates the promoters, company, project,
financials, risk factors and several other aspects before taking a decision in this regard.
Decision with regard to some types/sizes of companies has been delegated to the Internal
Committee of BSE.
4. Submission of Letter of Application
As per Section 73 of the Companies Act, 1956, a company seeking listing of its
securities on BSE is required to submit a Letter of Application to all the stock exchanges
where it proposes to have its securities listed before filing the prospectus with the
Registrar of Companies.
5. Allotment of Securities
As per the Listing Agreement, a company is required to complete the allotment of
securities offered to the public within 30 days of the date of closure of the subscription
list and approach the Designated Stock Exchange for approval of the basis of allotment.
In case of Book Building issues, allotment shall be made not later than 15 days from the
closure of the issue, failing which interest at the rate of 15% shall be paid to the
investors.
6. Trading Permission
As per SEBI Guidelines, an issuer company should complete the formalities for trading
at all the stock exchanges where the securities are to be listed within 7 working days of
finalization of the basis of allotment.
A company should scrupulously adhere to the time limit specified in SEBI (Disclosure
and Investor Protection) Guidelines 2000 for allotment of all securities and dispatch of
allotment letters/share certificates/credit in depository accounts and refund orders and
for obtaining the listing permissions of all the exchanges whose names are stated in its
prospectus or offer document. In the event of listing permission to a company being
denied by any stock exchange where it had applied for listing of its securities, the
company cannot proceed with the allotment of shares. However, the company may file
an appeal before SEBI under Section 22 of the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act,
1956.
98
7. Requirement of 1% Security
Companies making public/rights issues are required to deposit 1% of the issue amount
with the Designated Stock Exchange before the issue opens. This amount is liable to be
forfeited in the event of the company not resolving the complaints of investors regarding
delay in sending refund orders/share certificates, non-payment of commission to
underwriters, brokers, etc.
Table 5.1
Securities *other than Privately Placed Debt Securities and Mutual Funds
99
Placed Debt Securities
Mutual Funds
100
9. Compliance with the Listing Agreement
Companies desirous of getting their securities listed at BSE are required to enter into an
agreement with BSE called the Listing Agreement, under which they are required to
make certain disclosures and perform certain acts, failing which the company may face
some disciplinary action, including suspension/delisting of securities. As such, the
Listing Agreement is of great importance and is executed under the common seal of a
company. Under the Listing Agreement, a company undertakes, amongst other things, to
provide facilities for prompt transfer, registration, sub-division and consolidation of
securities; to give proper notice of closure of transfer books and record dates, to forward
6 copies of unabridged Annual Reports, Balance Sheets and Profit and Loss Accounts to
BSE, to file shareholding patterns and financial results on a quarterly basis; to intimate
promptly to the Exchange the happenings which are likely to materially affect the
financial performance of the Company and its stock prices, to comply with the
conditions of Corporate Governance, etc. The Listing Department of BSE monitors the
compliance by the companies with the provisions of the Listing Agreement, especially
with regard to timely payment of annual listing fees, submission of results, shareholding
patterns and corporate governance reports on a quarterly basis. Penal action is taken
against the defaulting companies.
10. Cash Management Services (CMS) - Collection of Listing Fees
In order to simplify the system of payment of listing fees, BSE has entered into an
arrangement with HDFC Bank for collection of listing fees from 141 locations all over
the country.
5.13 Summary
Stock Exchanges play a vital role in the consolidation of a national economy in general
and in the development of industrial sector in particular. It is the most dynamic and
organized component of securities market. Especially, in developing countries like India,
the stock exchanges play a prime role in promoting the level of capital formation
through effective mobilization of savings and ensuring investment safety.
Most of the trading in the Indian stock market takes place on its two stock exchanges:
the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The BSE
has been in existence since 1875. The NSE, on the other hand, was founded in 1992 and
started trading in 1994. However, both exchanges follow the same trading mechanism,
trading hours, settlement process, etc. At the last count, the BSE had about 4,700 listed
firms, whereas the rival NSE had about 1,200. Out of all the listed firms on the BSE,
only about 500 firms constitute more than 90% of its market capitalization; the rest of
the crowd consists of highly illiquid shares.
101
Almost all the significant firms of India are listed on both the exchanges. NSE enjoys a
dominant share in spot trading, with about 70% of the market share, as of 2009, and
almost a complete monopoly in derivatives trading, with about a 98% share in this
market, also as of 2009. Both exchanges compete for the order flow that leads to reduced
costs, market efficiency and innovation. The presence of arbitrageurs keeps the prices on
the two stock exchanges within a very tight range.
102
Annexure I
List of Indian Stock Exchanges
Sr. No. Name of the Exchange Valid Upto
1 Ahmedabad Stock Exchange Ltd. PERMANENT
2 BSE Ltd. PERMANENT
3 Bangalore Stock Exchange Ltd. PERMANENT
4 Bhubaneswar Stock Exchange Ltd 04-JUN-2014
5 Calcutta Stock Exchange Ltd. PERMANENT
6 Cochin Stock Exchange Ltd 07-NOV-2013
7 Delhi Stock Exchange Ltd. PERMANENT
8 Gauhati Stock Exchange Ltd. 30-APR-2013
9 Inter-Connected Stock Exchange of India 17-NOV-2013
Limited
10 Jaipur Stock Exchange Ltd 08-JAN-2014
11 Ludhiana Stock Exchange Ltd. 27-APR-2014
12 MCX SX Exchange Limited 15-SEP-2014
13 Madhya Pradesh Stock Exchange Ltd. PERMANENT
14 Madras Stock Exchange Ltd. PERMANENT
15 Magadh Stock Exchange Ltd. "SEBI vide order dated September
3, 2007 refused to renew the
recognition granted to Magadh
Stock Exchange Ltd."
16 Mangalore Stock Exchange As per Securities Appellete
Tribunal order dated October 4,
2006, the Mangalore Stock
Exchange is a de-recognized
Stock Exchange under Section 4
(4) of SCRA
17 National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. PERMANENT
18 OTC Exchange of India 22-AUG-2014
19 Pune Stock Exchange Ltd. 01-SEP-2014
20 The Vadodara Stock Exchange Ltd. 03-JAN-2014
21 U.P. Stock Exchange Limited 02-JUN-2014
22 United Stock Exchange of India Limited 21-MAR-2014
Note: The Hyderabad Securities and Enterprises Ltd (erstwhile Hyderabad Stock Exchange),
Coimbatore Stock Exchange Ltd and Saurashtra Kutch Stock Exchange Ltd have been
granted exit by SEBI vide order dated January 25, 2013, April 4, 2013 and April 5, 2013
respectively.
Source: SEBI
103
Unit-6 Stock Market Indices
Structure of Unit
6.0 Objectives
6.1 Introduction
6.2 What is Stock Market Indices?
6.3 Importance of Stock Market Indices
6.4 Computation of Index Number
6.5 Features of Index
6.6 Methodology for Index Construction
6.7 Summary
6.8 Self Assessment Questions
6.9 Reference Books
6.0 Objectives
After completing this unit, you would be able to:
Understand what is stock market indices;
Classify the different indices;
Know about the computation of stock index;
Identify the differences in stock market indices.
6.1 Introduction
Conventionally, indices have been used as benchmarks to observe markets and review
performance. Stock market indices are the barometers of the stock market. They mirror
the stock market behavior. Present day indices were first proposed by two
mathematicians Etienne Laspeyres and Hermann Paasche in 19th century. The father of
all equity indices is the Dow Jones Industrial Average which was first published in 1896
by Charles Dow; since then indices have come a long way - not only in their complexity
- but also in the variety.
The most popular index in financial market is the stock index which uses a set of stocks
that are representative of the whole market, or a specified sector, to measure the change
in overall behavior of the markets or sector over a period of time. It is not possible for
everyone to look at the prices of each and every stock to find out whether the market
movement is upward or downward and therefore indices give a broad outline of the
market movement and represent the market.
104
6.2 What is Stock Market Index?
Indices are a method of measuring the value of a market segment. It is computed from
the prices of selected stocks generally on the basis of weighted average. A stock market
index is therefore a measure of the relative value of a group of stocks in numerical terms.
As the stocks within an index change value, the index value changes. An index is
important to measure the performance of investments against a relevant market index. It
is a tool used by investors and financial managers to describe the market, and to compare
the return on specific investments. The best known indices measure the performance of
stock markets. An index is a mathematical construct, so no investor can invest in it
directly. However, there are index funds that attempt to resemble the development of
indices.
An index is used to give information about the price movements of products in the
financial, commodities or any other markets. Financial indexes are constructed to
measure price movements of stocks, bonds, T-bills and other forms of investments.
Stock market indexes are meant to capture the overall behavior of equity markets. A
stock market index is created by selecting a group of stocks that are representative of the
whole market or a specified sector or segment of the market. An index is calculated with
reference to a base period and a base index value. There are three main types of indices,
namely price index, quantity index and value index. The price index is most widely used.
It measures changes in the levels of prices of products in the financial, commodities or
any other markets from one period to another.
Stock market indexes are helpful for a variety of reasons. Some of them are:
a) They provide a historical comparison of returns on money invested in the stock
market against other forms of investments such as gold or debt.
b) They can be used as a standard against which to compare the performance of an
equity fund.
c) It is a lead indicator of the performance of the overall economy or a sector of the
economy
d) Stock indexes reflect highly up to date information
e) Modern financial applications such as Index Funds, Index Futures, Index Options
play an important role in financial investments and risk management.
105
6.3 Importance of Stock Market Indices
a) Indicator of performance: Indices help to recognize the broad trends in the market
as the lead indicator of the performance of the overall economy or a sector of the
economy.
b) Barometer for market behavior: It is used to monitor and measure market
movements, whether in real time, daily, or over decades, and thus helps us to
understand economic conditions and future prospects. Therefore, it functions as a
status report of the general economic conditions. Impacts of the various economic
policies are also reflected on the stock market can be easily viewed from the
performance of market indices.
c) Benchmark for portfolio performance: A managed fund can communicate its
objectives and target universe by stating which index or indices serve as the standard
against which its performance should be judged. Index can be used as a benchmark
for evaluating the investors’ portfolio. The investor can also use the indices to
allocate funds rationally among stocks. To earn returns on par with the market
returns, he can choose the stocks that reflect the market movement.
d) Underlying for other instruments: Index funds and futures are formulated with the
help of the indices. Usually fund managers construct portfolios to follow any one of
the major stock market index. It also underpins products such as, exchange-traded
funds, index funds etc. These indexes - related products form a several trillion dollar
business and are used widely in investment, hedging and risk management. Example,
ICICI has floated ICICI index bonds. The return of the bond is linked with the index
movement.
e) Supports research: It also supports research, risk measurement and management;
and asset allocation. Like technical analysts studying the historical performance of
the indices and predict the future movement of the stock market. The relationship
between the individual stock and index predicts the individual share price movement.
In addition to the above functional use, a stock index reflects changing expectations of
the market about future of the corporate sector. The index rises if the market expects the
future to be better than previously expected and drops if the expectation about future
becomes pessimistic. Price of a stock moves for two reasons, namely, company specific
development (product launch, closure of a factory, arrest of chief executive) and
development affecting the general environment (financial crisis, election result, budget
announcement), which affects the stock market as a whole. The stock index captures the
second part, that is, impact of environmental change on the stock market as a whole.
This is achieved by averaging which cancels out changes in prices of individual stocks.
106
6.4 Computation of Index number
An index is a summary measure that indicates changes in value(s) of a variable or a set
of variables over a time or space. It is generally computed by finding the ratio of current
values(s) to a reference (base) value(s) and multiplying the resulting number by 100 or
1000. For example, a stock market index is a number that indicates the relative level of
prices or value of securities in a market on a particular day compared with a base-day
price or value figure, which is usually 100 or 1000.
Illustration: The values of a market portfolio at the close of trading on Day 1 and Day 2
are:
Day Value of Portfolio Index Value
1 (base day) Rs 15,000 1000
2 Rs 25,000 1666.67
Assume that Day 1 is the base day and the value assigned to the base day index is 1000.
On Day 2 the value of the portfolio has changed from Rs. 15,000 to Rs. 25,000, a
66.67% increase. The value of the index on Day 2 should reflect a corresponding
66.67% increase in market value.
Thus,
Index on Day2 = Portfolio value of Day 2 *Index Value of Base day
Portfolio Value of Base Day
Day 2's index is 1666.67 as compared to the 1000 of day 1.
The above illustration only gives out as an introduction to how an index is constructed.
The daily computation of a stock index have more complexity especially when there are
changes in market capitalization of constituent stocks, e.g., rights offers, stock dividend
etc.
107
behavior of the market, thus its inclusion in index results delayed or out of date price
behavior rather than current price behavior of the market. Hence a good index should
include the stocks which best represent the universe.
b) Including liquid stocks: Liquidity is much more as reflected by trading frequency.
It is about ability to transact at a price, which is very close to the current market
price. For example, when the market price of a stock is at Rs.320, it will be
considered liquid if one can buy some shares at around Rs.320.05 and sell at around
Rs.319.95. A liquid stock has very tight bid-ask spread.
c) Continuous evaluation: An index could not remain constant. It reflects the market
dynamics and hence changes are essential to maintain its representative character.
This necessarily means that the same set of stocks would not satisfy index criteria at
all times. A good index methodology must therefore incorporate a steady pace of
change in the index set. It is crucial that such changes are made at a steady pace.
Therefore, the index set should be reviewed on a regular basis and, if required,
changes should be made to ensure that it continues to reflect the current state of
market.
108
c) Market capitalization or value weighted method: The most commonly used
weight is market capitalization (MC), that is, the number of outstanding shares
multiplied by the share price at some specified time. A type of market index whose
individual components are weighted according to their market capitalization, so that
larger components carry a larger percentage weighting. The value of a capitalization-
weighted index can be computed by adding up the collective market capitalizations
of its members and dividing it by the number of securities in the index. The same
price movement for large company will influence the value of the index more than a
small company and have a dramatic effect on the value of the index. So some
investors feel that this overweighting toward the larger companies gives a distorted
view of the market, but the fact that the largest companies also have the largest
shareholder bases makes the case for having the higher relevancy in the index. The
advantage of market capitalization weighted indices over others is that stock splits
and other capital adjustments are automatically taken care of. NASDAQ Composite,
NASDAQ-100, NYSE Composite, FTSE-100, Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, RTS
Index, Russell 2000, S&P 500 - Now float-weighted, SENSEX in India are some of
the examples of market capitalization weighted method.
d) Free-float market capitalization: Free-float methodology market capitalization is
calculated by taking the equity's price and multiplying it by the number of shares
readily available in the market. Instead of using all of the shares outstanding like the
full-market capitalization method, the free-float method excludes locked-in shares
such as those held by promoters and governments. The free-float method is seen as a
better way of calculating market capitalization because it provides a more accurate
reflection of market movements. When using a free-float methodology, the resulting
market capitalization is smaller than what would result from a full-market
capitalization method. Free-float methodology has been adopted by most of the
world's major indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P
500.
Difficulties in index construction:
The major difficulties encountered in constructing an appropriate index are:
deciding the number of stocks to be included in the index,
selecting stocks to be included in the index,
selecting appropriate weights, and
selecting the base period and base value.
109
6.7 Summary
Stock market indices are an important part of the economy of a country. They reflect the
stock market behavior. They play a pivotal role in the growth of the industry and
commerce of the country that eventually affects the economy of the country to a great
extent. That is reason that the government, industry and even the central banks of the
country keep a close watch on the happenings of the stock market indices. The stock
market indices are important from both the industry’s point of view as well as the
investor’s point of view. There are various methods of computing the index composition
and they have their own advantages and disadvantages. The indices also differ from each
other on the basis of the number, the composition of stocks, weights and base year.
110
Annexure I
List of Indices Source: BSE & NSE official website
BSE NSE
Broad Indices Broad indices
S&P BSE SENSEX CNX Nifty
S&P BSE MID CAP CNX Nifty Junior
S&P BSE SMALL CAP LIX 15 (liquid stocks index)
S&P BSE 100 CNX 100
S&P BSE 200 CNX 200
S&P BSE 500 CNX 500
Investment Strategy
Indices CNX Midcap*
S&P BSE IPO Nifty Midcap 50
S&P BSE SME IPO CNX Smallcap Index
S&P BSE DOLLEX 30 CNX Midcap 200 **
S&P BSE DOLLEX 100 India Vix (India VIX is a volatility index based on the
NIFTY Index Option prices)
S&P BSE DOLLEX 200 Sectoral Indices
Volatility Indices CNX Auto Index
S&P BSE REALVOL-
1MTH CNX Bank Index
S&P BSE REALVOL-
2MTH CNX Energy Index
S&P BSE REALVOL-
3MTH CNX Finance Index
Thematic Indices CNX FMCG Index
S&P BSE GREENEX CNX IT Index
S&P BSE CARBONEX CNX Media Index
Sectoral Indices CNX Metal Index
S&P BSE AUTO CNX Pharma Index
S&P BSE BANKEX CNX PSU Bank Index
S&P BSE CAPITAL
GOODS CNX Realty Index
S&P BSE CONSUMER
DURABLES IISL CNX Industry Indice
S&P BSE FMCG Thematic indices
S&P BSE HEALTHCARE CNX Commodities Index
S&P BSE IT CNX Consumption Index
S&P BSE METAL CNX Infrastructure Index
111
S&P BSE OIL & GAS CNX MNC Index
S&P BSE POWER CNX PSE Index
S&P BSE PSU CNX Service Sector Index
S&P BSE REALTY CNX Nifty Shariah / CNX 500 Shariah
S&P BSE TECK Strategy indices
CNX 100 Equal Weight
CNX Alpha Index
CNX Defty
CNX Dividend Opportunities Index
CNX High Beta Index
CNX Low Volatility Index
CNX Nifty Dividend
112
Unit- 7 Regulatory System of Security Market
Structure of Unit
7.0 Objectives
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956
7.3 Companies Act, 1956
7.4 SEBI Act, 1992
7.5 Depositories Act, 1996
7.6 Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002
7.7 Summary
7.8 Self Assessment Questions
7.9 Reference Books
7.0 Objectives
This unit deals with legislative and regulatory provisions relevant for Securities Market
in India and this will help to understand how the stock market operates.
7.1 Introduction
Legislations
The five main legislations governing the securities market are: (a) the Securities
Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956, preventing undesirable transactions in securities by
regulating the business of dealing in securities; (b) the Companies Act, 1956, which is a
uniform law relating to companies throughout India; (c) the SEBI Act, 1992 for the
protection of interests of investors and for promoting development of and regulating the
securities market; (d) the Depositories Act, 1996 which provides for electronic
maintenance and transfer of ownership of dematerialised securities and (e) the
Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002 which prevents money laundering and
provides for confiscation of property derived from or involved in money laundering.
113
SEBI Act and the Depositories Act for registration and regulation of all market
intermediaries, for prevention of unfair trade practices, insider trading, etc. Under these
Acts, Government and SEBI issue notifications, guidelines, and circulars, which need to
be complied with by market participants. The self - regulatory organizations (SROs) like
stock exchanges have also laid down their rules and regulations for market participants.
The regulator has to ensure that the market participants behave in a desired manner so that
securities market continue to be a major source of finance for corporate and government while
protecting the interest of investors.
Regulators
The responsibility for regulating the securities market is shared jointly by Department of
Economic Affairs (DEA), Department of Company Affairs (DCA), Reserve Bank of
India (RBI), Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Appellate Tribunal
(SAT). The regulators ensure that the market participants behave in a desired manner so
that the securities market continue to be a major source of finance for corporates and
government and the interest of investors are protected. The activities of all these
agencies are coordinated by a High Level Committee on Capital Markets. Most of the
powers under the SCRA are exercisable by DEA while a few others by SEBI and some
are concurrently by them. The regulation of the contracts for sale and purchase of
securities, gold related securities, money market securities and securities derived from
these securities and ready forward contracts in debt securities are exercised concurrently
with the RBI. The SEBI Act and the Depositories Act are mostly administered by SEBI.
While the rules under the securities laws are framed by government, regulations are
framed by SEBI. The powers under the Companies Act relating to issue and transfer of
securities and non-payment of dividend are administered by SEBI in case of listed public
companies and public companies proposing to get their securities listed. The SROs
ensure compliance of market participants with their own rules as well as with the rules
relevant for them under the securities laws.
114
connected therewith. This is the principal Ac t, which governs the trading of securities in
India. As a condition of recognition, a stock exchange complies with conditions
prescribed by Central Government. Organized trading activity in securities takes place
on a recognized stock exchange.
Key Definitions
Recognized Stock Exchange:
It means a stock exchange, which is for the time being recognized by the Central
Government under Section 4 of the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.
Stock Exchange means:
(a) anybody of individuals, whether incorporated or not, constituted before
corporatization and demutualization under sections 4A and 4B, or
(b) a body corporate incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956 (1 of 1956) whether
under a scheme of corporatization and demutualization or otherwise, for the
purpose of assisting, regulating or controlling the business of buying, selling or
dealing in securities.
115
Derivatives: As per section 2(aa), “Derivative” includes
(i) a security derived from a debt instrument, share, loan whether secured or unsecured,
risk instrument or contract for differences or any other form of security;
(ii) a contract which derives its value from the prices, or index of prices, of underlying
securities;
Further, Section 18A provides that notwithstanding anything contained in any other law
for the time being in force, contracts in derivative shall be legal and valid if such
contracts are (a) traded on a recognized stock exchange; and (b) settled on the clearing
house of the recognized stock exchange, in accordance with the rules and bye- laws of
such stock exchanges, in accordance with the rules and bye- laws of such stock
exchange.
Spot delivery contract: Defined in Section 2(i) to mean a contract which provides
for-
(a) actual delivery of securities and the payment of a price there for either on the same
day as the date of the contract or on the next day, the actual period taken for the
dispatch of the securities or the remittance of money there for through the post being
excluded from the computation of the period aforesaid if the parties to the contract
do not reside in the same town or locality;
(b) transfer of the securities by the depository from the account of a beneficial owner to
the account of another beneficial owner when such securities are dealt with by a
depository.
As mentioned earlier, the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 deals with-
1. stock exchanges, through a process of recognition and continued supervision,
2. contracts & options in securities, and
3. listing of securities on stock exchanges.
Recognition of Stock Exchanges
By virtue of the provisions of the Act, the business of dealing in securities cannot be
carried out without registration from SEBI. Any Stock Exchange which is desirous of
being recognized has to make an application under Section 3 of the Act to SEBI, which
is empowered to grant recognition and prescribe conditions. This recognition can be
withdrawn in the interest of the trade or public.
Section 4A of the Act was added in the year 2004 for the purpose of corporatization and
demutualization of stock exchange. Under section 4A of the Act, SEBI by notification in
the official gazette may specify an appointed date on and from which date all recognized
stock exchanges have to corporatize and demutualise their stock exchanges. Each of the
116
recognized stock exchanges which have not already being corporatized and
demutualised by the appointed date are required to submit a scheme for corporatization
and demutualization for SEBI’s approval. After receiving the scheme SEBI may conduct
such enquiry and obtain such information as may be required by it and after satisfying
that the scheme is in the interest of the trade and also in the public interest, SEBI may
approve the scheme.
SEBI is authorized to call for periodical returns from the recognized Stock Exchanges
and make enquiries in relation to their affairs. Every Stock Exchange is obliged to
furnish annual reports to SEBI. Recognized Stock Exchanges are allowed to make
bylaws for the regulation and control of contracts but subject to the previous approval of
SEBI and SEBI has the power to amend the said bylaws. The Central Government and
SEBI have the power to supersede the governing body of any recognized stock
exchange. The Central Government and SEBI also have power to suspend the business
of the recognized stock exchange to meet any emergency as and when it arises, by
notifying in the official gazette.
Contracts and Options in Securities
Organized trading activity in securities takes place on a recognized stock exchange. If
the Central Government is satisfied, having regard to the nature or the volume of
transactions in securities in any State or States or area, that it is necessary so to do, it
may, by notification in the Official Gazette, declare provisions of section 13 to apply to
such State or States or area, and thereupon every contract in such State or States or area
which is entered into after date of the notification otherwise than between members of a
recognized stock exchange or recognized in stock exchanges in such State or States or
area or through or with such member shall be illegal. The effect of this provision clearly
is that if a transaction in securities has to be validly entered into, such a transaction has
to be either between the members of a recognized stock exchange or through a member
of a Stock Exchange.
Listing of Securities
Where securities are listed on the application of any person in any recognized stock
exchange, such person shall comply with the conditions of the listing agreement with
that stock exchange (Section 21). Where a recognized stock exchange acting in
pursuance of any power given to it by its bye- laws, refuses to list the securities of any
company, the company shall be entitled to be furnished with reasons for such refusal and
the company may appeal to Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) against such refusal.
117
Delisting of Securities
A recognized stock exchange may delist the securities of any listed companies on such
grounds as are prescribed under the Act. Before delisting any company from its
exchange, the recognized stock exchange has to give the concerned company a
reasonable opportunity of being heard and has to record the reasons for delisting that
concerned company. The concerned company or any aggrieved investor may appeal to
SAT against such delisting (Section 21A).
118
Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as an administrative body which functioned under the
administrative control of the Ministry of Finance of the Central Government by a
resolution of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance.
It was proposed that this administrative body would be a precursor to the statutory Board
(SEBI) with which it would be ultimately merged. Thereafter SEBI was established as a
statutory authority through an Ordinance promulgated on 30.01.1992 by the President of
India. On 30.03.1992 a Bill was introduced in the Parliament to replace the said
Ordinance which was approved by both the Houses of Parliament on 01.04.1992 and
was assented to by the President on 04.04.1992. The statute was deemed to have come
into force from the date on which the Ordinance was promulgated i.e. 30.01.1992.
Purpose of the Act
The purpose of the SEBI Act is to provide for the establishment of a Board called
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI, for short). The Preamble to the Act
provides for the establishment of a Board to:
(i) Protect the interests of investors in securities,
(ii) Promote the development of the securities market,
(iii) To regulate the securities market, and
(iv) For matters connected therewith or incidental thereto.
The statement, of objects and reasons appended to SEBI Bill, 1992 states that SEBI
which was first established in 1988 through a Government resolution to promote orderly
and healthy growth of the securities market and for investors' protection has been
monitoring the activities of stock exchanges, mutual funds and merchant bankers etc., to
achieve these goals.
Regulatory Jurisdiction
Its regulatory jurisdiction extends over companies listed on Stock Exchanges and
companies intending to get their securities listed on any recognized stock exchange in
the issuance of securities and transfer of securities, in addition to all intermediaries and
persons associated with securities market. SEBI can specify the matters to be disclosed
and the standards of disclosure required for the protection of investors in respect of
issues; can issue directions to all intermediaries and other persons associated with the
securities market in the interest of investors or of orderly development of the securities
market; and can conduct enquiries, audits and inspection of all concerned and adjudicate
offences under the Act.
In other words, it has been given necessary autonomy and authority to regulate and
develop an orderly securities market. All the intermediaries and persons associated with
119
securities market, viz., brokers and sub-brokers, underwriters, merchant bankers, bankers
to the issue, share transfer agents and registrars to the issue, depositories, Participants,
portfolio managers, debentures trustees, foreign institutional investors, custodians,
venture capital funds, mutual funds, collective investments schemes, credit rating
agencies, etc., shall be registered with SEBI and shall be governed by the SEBI
Regulations pertaining to respective market intermediary.
Constitution of SEBI
The Central Government has constituted a Board by the name of SEBI under Section 3
of SEBI Act. The head office of SEBI is in Mumbai. SEBI may establish offices at other
places in India. SEBI consists of the following members, namely:-
(a) a Chairman;
(b) two members from amongst the officials of the Ministry of the Central
Government dealing with Finance and administration of Companies Act, 1956;
(c) one member from amongst the officials of the Reserve Bank of India;
(d) five other members of whom at least three shall be whole time members to be
appointed by the Central Government.
The general superintendence, direction and management of the affairs of SEBI vests in a
Board of Members, which exercises all powers and do all acts and things which may be
exercised or done by SEBI.
Functions of SEBI
SEBI has been required to protect the interests of the investors in securities and to
promote and development of, and to regulate the securities market by such measures as it
thinks fit. The measures referred to therein may provide for: -
(i) regulating the business in stock exchanges and any other securities markets;
(ii) registering and regulating the working of stock brokers, sub- brokers, share
transfer agents, bankers to an issue, trustees of trust deeds, registrars to an issue,
merchant bankers, underwriters, portfolio managers, investment advisers and
such other intermediaries who may be associated with securities markets in any
manner;
(iii) registering and regulating the working of the depositories, participants,
custodians of securities, foreign institutional investors, credit rating agencies and
such other intermediaries as SEBI may, by notification, specify in this behalf;
(iv) registering and regulating the working of venture capital funds and collective
investment schemes including mutual funds;
(v) promoting and regulating self - regulatory organisations;
120
(vi) prohibiting fraudulent and unfair trade practices relating to securities markets;
(vii) promoting investors' education and training of intermediaries of securities
markets;
(viii) prohibiting insider trading in securities;
(ix) regulating substantial acquisition of shares and take - over of companies;
(x) calling for information from, undertaking inspection, conducting inquiries and
audits of the stock exchanges, mutual funds, other persons associated with the
securities market, intermediaries and self- regulatory organisations in the
securities market;
(xi) calling for information and record from any bank or any other authority or board
or corporation established or constituted by or under any Central, State or
Provincial Act in respect of any transaction in securities which is under
investigation or inquiry by the Board;
(xii) performing such functions and exercising according to Securities Contracts
(Regulation) Act, 1956, as may be delegated t o it by the Central Government;
(xiii) levying fees or other charges for carrying out the purpose of this section;
(xiv) conducting research for the above purposes;
(xv) calling from or furnishing to any such agencies, as may be specified by SEBI,
such information as may be considered necessary by it for the efficient discharge
of its functions;
(xvi) performing such other functions as may be prescribed.
SEBI may, for the protection of investors, (a) specify, by regulations for (i) the matters
relating to issue of capital, transfer of securities and other matters incidental thereto; and
(ii) the manner in which such matters, shall be disclosed by the companies and (b) by
general or special orders : (i) prohibit any company from issuing of prospectus, any offer
document, or advertisement soliciting money from the public for the issue of securities,
(ii) specify the conditions subject to which the prospectus, such offer document or
advertisement, if not prohibited may be issued (Section 11A).
SEBI may issue directions to any person or class of persons referred to in section 12, or
associated with the securities market or to any company in respect of matters specified in
section 11A. If it is in the interest of investors, or orderly development of securities
market to prevent the affairs of any intermediary or other persons referred to in section
12 being conducted in a manner detrimental to the interests of investors or securities
market to 241 secure the proper management of any such intermediary or person
(Section 11B).
121
7.5 The Depositories Act, 1996
The Depositories Act, 1996 was enacted to provide for regulation of depositories in
securities and for matters connected therewith or incidental thereto. It came into force
from 20th September, 1995. It also provides for the establishment of depositories for
securities to ensure transferability of securities with speed, accuracy and security. For
this, these provisions have been made: (a) making securities of public limited companies
freely transferable subject to certain exceptions; (b) dematerializing the securities in the
depository mode; and (c) providing for maintenance of ownership records in a book
entry form. In order to streamline the settlement process, the Act envisages transfer of
ownership of securities electronically by book entry without moving the securities from
persons to persons. The Act has made the securities of all public limited companies
freely transferable, restricting the company’s right to use direction in effecting the
transfer of securities, and the transfer deed and other procedural requirements under the
Companies Act have been dispensed with.
The Depository Act provides for the establishment of depositories like the National
Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and the Central Depository Services Limited
providing depository services in the electronic form for securities traded in equity and
debt markets.
122
Every depository must have adequate mechanisms for reviewing, monitoring and
evaluating the depository’s controls, systems, procedures and safeguards. It should
conduct an annual inspection of these procedures and forward a copy of the inspection
report to SEBI. The depository is also required to ensure that the integrity of the
automatic data processing systems is maintained at all times and take all precautions
necessary to ensure that the records are not lost, destroyed or tampered with. In the event
of loss or destruction, sufficient back up of records should be available at a different
place. Adequate measures should be taken, including insurance, to protect the interests
of the beneficial owners against any risks. Every depository is required to extend all such
co-operation to the beneficial owners, issuers, issuers’ agents, custodians of securities,
other depositories and clearing organizations, as is necessary for the effective, prompt
and accurate clearance and settlement of securities transactions and conduct of business.
Parties to a Depository
In a depository system, the following parties are involved
The participant means a person through whom the beneficial owner of the securities
would avail of the depository service and is the custodial agencies like banks, financial
institutions as well as large corporate brokerage firms.
123
Depository Participants includes brokers, banks, insurance companies, Stock Exchange
clearing cells, the Reserve Bank of India, financial institutions, institutional managers,
fund managers etc. Section 41 of the Companies Act lays down two modes of acquiring
membership of a company and in both an entry of the name of a person as a member in
the register of the members of the company is a condition precedent for a person to be
regarded a member of the company. However to facilitate the beneficial owner of shares,
on whose behalf the depository holds the shares, to be recognized as members, Section
41 in its new subsection 3 provides that every person holding equity share capital of a
company and whose name is entered as a beneficial owner in the records of a depository
shall be deemed to be a member of the concerned company.
Regulation 26 of the SEBI (Depositories and Participants) Regulations, 1996 states that
depositories, participants, issuers, and issuers’ agent, in addition to the rights and
obligations laid down in the Depositories Act and the bye laws shall have the rights and
obligations arising from the agreements entered into by them.
124
Options to Receive Security Certificate or Hold Securities with Depository
Every person subscribing to securities offered by an issuer shall have the option either to
receive the security certificates or hold securities with a depository.
Furnishing of Information and Records by Depository and Issuer
Every depository shall furnish to the issuer information about the transfer of securities in
the name of beneficial owners at intervals.
Power of Board to Call for Information and Enquiry
The Board, on being satisfied that it is necessary in the public interest or in the interest
of investors so to do, may, by order in writing, call upon any issuer, depository,
participant or beneficial owner to furnish in writing such information relating to the
securities held in a depository as it may require; or authorize any person to make an
enquiry or inspection in relation to the affairs of the issuer, beneficial owner, depository
or participant, who shall submit a report of such enquiry or inspection to it within such
period as may be specified in the order.
Penalty for Delay in Dematerialization or Issue of Certificate of Securities
If any issuer or its agent or any person, who is registered as an intermediary under the
provisions of section 12 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992 (15 of
1992), fails to dematerialize or issue the certificate of securities on opting out of a
depository by the investors, within the time specified under this Act or regulations or
bye-laws made there under or abets in delaying the process of dematerialization or issue
the certificate of securities on opting out of a depository of securities, such issuer or its
agent or intermediary shall be liable to a penalty of one lakh rupees for each day during
which such failure continues or one crore rupees, whichever is less.
Penalty for Failure to Reconcile Records
If a depository or participant or any issuer or its agent or any person, who is registered as
an intermediary under the provisions of section 12 of the Securities and Exchange Board
of India Act, 1992 (15 of 1992), fails to reconcile the records of dematerialized securities
with all the securities issued by the issuer as specified in the regulations, such depository
or participant or issuer or its agent or intermediary shall be liable to a penalty of one lakh
rupees for each day during which such failure continues or one crore rupees, whichever
is less.
125
Intelligence Unit-India (FIU-IND) and Director (Enforcement) have been conferred with
exclusive and concurrent powers under relevant sections of the Act to implement the
provisions of the Act.
The PMLA and rules notified there under impose obligation on banking companies,
financial institutions and intermediaries to verify identity of clients, maintain records and
furnish information to FIU-IND. PMLA defines money laundering offence and provides
for the freezing, seizure and confiscation of the proceeds of crime. The Act, thus enacted
to prevent money laundering and to provide for confiscation of property derived from, or
involved in, money- laundering and for matters connected therewith or incidental
thereto.
The terms used in the Act are defined as under:
(1) “intermediary” means a stock - broker, sub- broker, share transfer agent, banker to an
issue, trustee to a trust deed, registrar to an issue, merchant banker, underwriter,
portfolio manager, investment adviser and any other intermediary associated with
securities market and registered under section 12 of the Securities and Exchange
Board of India Act, 1992.
(2) “proceeds of crime” means any property or assets of every description, whether
corporeal or incorporeal, movable or immovable, tangible or intangible and
includes deeds and instruments evidencing title to, or interest in, such property or
assets, wherever located;
The term Money Laundering has been defined in Section 3 of the Act as Whosoever
directly or indirectly attempts to indulge or knowingly assists or knowingly is a party or
is actually involved in any process or activity connected with the proceeds of crime and
projecting it as untainted property shall be guilty of offence of money- laundering.
Punishment for Money- Laundering
The punishment for money- laundering is rigorous imprisonment for a term which shall
not less than three years but which may extend to seven years and shall also be liable to
fine which may extend to five lakh rupees.
Banking Companies, Financial Institutions and Intermediaries to Maintain
Records
Section 12 of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002 lays down following
obligations on banking companies, financial institutions and intermediaries.
(1) Every banking company, financial institution and intermediary shall –
a) maintain a record of all transactions, the nature and value of which may be
prescribed, whether such transactions comprise of a single transaction or a series of
126
transactions integrally connected to each other, and where such series of transactions
take place within a month;
b) furnish information of transactions referred to in clause (a) to the Director within
such time and as may be prescribed;
c) verify and maintain the records of the identity of all its clients, in such manner as
may be prescribed:
Provided that where the principal officer of a banking company or financial institution or
intermediary, as the case may be, has reason to believe that a single transaction or series
of transactions integrally connected to each other have been valued below the prescribed
value so as to defeat the provisions of this section, such officer shall furnish information
in respect of such transactions to the Director within the prescribed time.
(2) The records referred to in sub- section (1) shall be maintained for a period of ten
years from the date of cessation of the transactions between the clients and the
banking company or financial institution or intermediary, as the case may be.
Authorities under the Act
The Act provides that every order of attachment of property involved in money-
laundering, order of seizure of property/records etc. shall be forwarded along with a
complaint or application to the Adjudicating Authority within a period of thirty days.
Such order is to be confirmed by the Adjudicating Authority within a certain time - limit.
The Adjudicating Authority is constituted separately. The appeal against the orders of
the Director or the Adjudicating Authority can be filed before the Appellate Tribunal
being set up under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act.
The following are classes of authorities for the purposes of the Act, namely:
(a) Director or Additional Director or Joint Director,
(b) Deputy Director,
(c) Assistant Director, and
(d) Such other class of officers as may be appointed for the purposes of this Act.
7.7 Summary
Regulatory bodies are required to regulate the stock market operations. Indian stock
markets are regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. But other bodies like
Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Department of Company Affairs (DCA), and
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are also there for smooth functioning of the market. Some
important legislation are also there to curb the irregularities in the capital market and
protect the interests of the investors and paved a way for an orderly conduct of the
financial markets through the free transferability of securities with speed, accuracy and
transparency.
127
7.8 Self Assessment Questions
1. Discuss the SEBI regulation.
2. Explain the role of SEBI in capital market.
3. Discuss the role of the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.
4. Explain how, the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002 help in combating
money laundering in India.
5. Explain how Depository Act, 1996 helps in orderly conduct of the financial markets
through the free transferability of securities with speed, accuracy and transparency.
128
Unit-8 Managing Risks
Structure of Unit
8.0 Objectives
8.1 Introduction
8.2 What is Risk?
8.3 Types of Investment Risk
8.4 Classification of Systematic Risk
8.5 Classification of Unsystematic Risk
8.6 Measurement of Risk
8.7 Summary
8.8 Self Assessment Questions
8.9 Reference Books
8.0 Objectives
After completing this unit, you would be able to:
Explain the concept of return and risk.
Differentiate between different types of risk;
Know how to measure risk.
Realise the importance of diversification in reducing risk.
8.1 Introduction
The concept of risk is not a simple concept in finance. There are many different types of
risk identified and some types are relatively more or relatively less important in different
situations and applications. In some theoretical models of economic or financial
processes, for example, some types of risks or even all risk may be entirely eliminated.
For the practitioner operating in the real world, however, risk can never be entirely
eliminated. It is ever-present and must be identified and dealt with. In the study of
finance, there are different types of risk are been identified. It is important to remember,
however, that all types of risks exhibit the same positive risk-return relationship.
129
Risk has also been defined as:
‘Uncertain future events which could influence the achievement of the organization’s
strategic, operational and financial objectives.’ International Federation of Accountants,
1999.
Thus risk implies the extent to which any chosen action or an inaction that may lead to a
loss or some unwanted outcome. The notion implies that a choice may have an influence
on the outcome that exists or has existed. However, in financial management, risk relates
to any material loss attached to the project that may affect the productivity, tenure, legal
issues, etc. of the project. In terms of investment, risk is the uncertainty of
income/capital appreciation or loss of both.
Risk in holding securities is generally associated with possibility that realized returns
will be less than the expected returns. In other words, risk can be defined as the
probability that the expected return from the security will not materialize. Every
investment involves uncertainties that make future investment returns risk-prone. Risk
could be categorized depending on whether it affects the market as whole, or just a
particular industry. Thus, different types of investment risk can be classified under two
main groups: (a) systematic risk and (b) unsystematic risk.
130
Systematic Risk is further subdivided into:
Market Risk (Variation in returns caused by the volatility of stock market)
Interest Rate Risk (Variation in bond prices due to change in interest rate)
Purchasing Power Risk (Inflation results in lowering of the purchasing power of
money)
b) Unsystematic risk
Unsystematic or diversifiable risk is the portion of total risks that is unique to a firm or
industry. Therefore it arises due to the influence of internal factors prevailing within an
organization. Factors like management capability, labor unions, product category,
research and development, pricing, marketing strategy, consumer preferences and raw
material scarcity causes unsystematic variability of returns in a firm. Unsystematic
factors are largely independent of factors affecting securities markets in general. Such
factors are normally controllable from an organization's point of view. Unsystematic risk
is a micro in nature as it affects only a particular organization. It can be planned, so that
necessary actions can be taken by the organization to mitigate (reduce the effect of) the
risk.
Unsystematic Risk is further subdivided into:
Business Risk (Variability in Operating Income caused by Operating Conditions)
Financial Risk (Variability in EPS due to the presence of debt in Capital Structure)
Operational risk (Business process risks arising due to human errors)
c) Total Risk
Risk is the potential for variability in returns. Total variability in returns of a security
represents the total risk of that security. Hence,
Total Risk = Systematic Risk + Unsystematic Risk
Factors influencing risk:
The length of the maturity period affects risk. The longer maturity periods impart
greater risk to investments.
The credit-worthiness of the issuer of securities also influences the risk of the
securities. The ability of the borrower to make periodical interest payments and pay
back the principal amount may create risk.
The nature of the instrument or security also determines the risk. The government
securities and fixed deposits with banks tend to be least risky while corporate debt
instruments like debentures tend to be riskier than government bonds whereas
ownership instruments like equity shares tend to be the riskiest.
131
8.4 Classification of Systematic Risk
a) Interest rate risk: Interest-rate risk refers to the uncertainty of future market values
and of the size of future income, caused by fluctuations in the general level of interest
rates. Hence it arises due to variability in the interest rates from time to time. It
particularly affects debt securities as they carry the fixed rate of interest. The interest-
rate risk is further classified as price risk and reinvestment rate risk. The meaning of
various types of interest-rate risk is discussed below:
(i) Price risk arises due to the possibility that the price of the shares, commodity,
investment, etc. may decline or fall in the future.
(ii) Reinvestment rate risk results from fact that the interest or dividend earned from an
investment can't be reinvested with the same rate of return as it was acquiring earlier.
b) Market risk: Market risk is associated with consistent fluctuations seen in the
trading price of any particular shares or securities. That is, it is a risk that arises due to
rise or fall in the trading price of listed shares or securities in the stock market. The stock
prices may fall from time to time while a company’s earnings are rising, and vice versa,
is not uncommon. The price of a stock may fluctuate widely within a short span of time
even though earnings remain unchanged. The causes of this occurrence are varied, but it
is mainly due to a change in investors’ attitudes toward shares in general, or toward
certain types or groups of securities in particular. Variability in return on most common
stocks that is due to basic wide changes in investor expectations is referred to as market
risk. The market risk is further classified as absolute risk, relative risk, directional risk,
non-directional risk, basis risk and volatility risk. The meaning of different types of
market risk is briefly discussed below:
(i) Absolute risk is the risk without any content. For e.g., if a coin is tossed, there is
fifty percentage chance of getting a head and vice-versa.
(ii) Relative risk is the assessment or evaluation of risk at different levels of business
functions. For e.g. a relative risk from a foreign exchange fluctuation may be higher
if the maximum sales accounted by an organization are of export sales.
(iii) Directional risks are those risks where the loss arises from an exposure to the
particular assets of a market. For e.g. an investor holding some shares experience a
loss when the market price of those shares falls down.
(iv) Non-Directional risk arises where the method of trading is not consistently followed
by the trader. For e.g. the dealer will buy and sell the share simultaneously to
mitigate the risk.
132
(v) Basis risk is due to the possibility of loss arising from imperfectly matched risks.
For e.g. the risks which are in offsetting positions in two related but non-identical
markets.
(vi) Volatility risk is the risk of a change in the price of securities as a result of changes
in the volatility of a risk factor. For e.g. volatility risk applies to the portfolios of
derivative instruments, where the volatility of its underlying is a major influence of
prices.
c) Purchasing power or inflationary risk: Market risk and interest-rate risk can be
defined in terms of uncertainties as to the amount of current rupees to be received by an
investor. Purchasing-power risk is the uncertainty of the purchasing power of the
amounts to be received. In general terms, purchasing-power risk refers to the impact of
inflation or deflation on an investment. Therefore it is also known as inflation risk. It is
so, since it derive from the fact that it affects a purchasing power adversely. It is not
desirable to invest in securities during an inflationary period. Rational investors should
include in their estimate of expected return an allowance for purchasing-power risk, in
the form of an expected annual percentage change in prices. The purchasing power or
inflationary risk is classified as demand inflation risk and cost inflation risk. The types of
purchasing power or inflationary risk are discussed below.
(i) Demand inflation risk arises due to increase in price, which result from an excess of
demand over supply. It occurs when supply fails to cope with the demand and hence
cannot expand anymore. In other words, demand inflation occurs when production
factors are under maximum utilization.
(ii) Cost inflation risk arises due to sustained increase in the prices of goods and
services. It is actually caused by higher production cost. A high cost of production
inflates the final price of finished goods consumed by people.
133
risks, depending upon the specific operating environmental factors with which it
must deal. The external factors, from cost of money to defence-budget cuts to
higher tariffs to a down swing in the business cycle, are some of the external
factors.
ii) Financial or credit risk: Financial risk is also known as credit risk. This risk arises
due to change in the capital structure of the organization. The capital structure mainly
comprises of three ways by which funds are sourced for the projects and they are owned
funds (share capital), borrowed funds (loan funds, debentures) and retained earnings
(reserve and surplus). The financial or credit risk is further classified into following
types.
(i) Exchange rate risk is also called as exposure rate risk. It is a form of financial risk
that arises from a potential change seen in the exchange rate of one country's
currency in relation to another country's currency and vice-versa. For e.g. investors
or businesses face an exchange rate risk either when they have assets or operations
across national borders, or if they have loans or borrowings in a foreign currency.
(ii) Recovery rate risk is an often neglected aspect of a credit risk analysis. The
recovery rate is normally needed to be evaluated. For e.g. the expected recovery
rate of the funds tendered (given) as a loan to the customers by banks, non-banking
financial companies (NBFC), etc.
(iii) Sovereign risk is the risk associated with the government. In such a risk,
government is unable to meet its loan obligations, reneging (to break a promise) on
loans it guarantees, etc.
(iv) Settlement risk is the risk when counterparty does not deliver a security or its
value in cash as per the agreement of trade or business.
iii) Operational risk
Operational risks are the business process risks failing due to human errors. This risk
will change from industry to industry. It occurs due to breakdowns in the internal
procedures, people, policies and systems. The operational risk is further classified as
model risk, people risk, legal risk and political risk. The types of operational risk are
depicted and explained below:
(i) Model risk is the risk involved in using various models to value financial
securities. It is due to probability of loss resulting from the weaknesses in the
financial model used in assessing and managing a risk.
(ii) People risk arises when people do not follow the organization’s procedures,
practices and/or rules. That is, they deviate from their expected behaviour.
(iii) Legal risk arises when parties are not lawfully competent to enter an agreement
among themselves. Furthermore, this relates to regulatory risk, where a transaction
134
could conflict with a government policy or particular legislation (law) might be
amended in the future with retrospective effect.
(iv) Political risk is the risk that occurs due to changes in government policies. Such
changes may have an unfavourable impact on an investor. This risk is especially
prevalent in the third-world countries.
Activity A :
1. Identify the type of risk:
R = 5+ 150 -1
100.00
= 0.55 or 55 per cent
135
It is essential to note that in this case investor expects to get a return of 55 per cent in
future, which is uncertain. In future, it might be possible that the dividend declared by
the company may turn out to be either more or less than the figure anticipated by the
investor. Similarly, the selling price of the share may be less than the price expected by
the investor at the time of investment. It may sometimes be even more. Hence, there is a
possibility that the future return may be more than 55 per cent or less than 55 per cent. In
view of the fact that the future is uncertain the investor has to consider the probability of
several other possible returns. The expected returns may be 20 per cent, 30 per cent, 50
per cent, 60 per cent or 70 per cent. The investor now has to assign the probability of
occurrence of these possible alternative returns as given below:
The table above gives the probability distribution of possible returns from an investment
in shares. Such distribution can be developed by the investor with the help of
investigation of past data and modifying it aptly for the changes he expects to occur in a
future period of time. With the help of available probability distribution two statistical
measures one expected return and the other risk of the investment can be calculated.
I. Expected Return
The expected return of the investment is the probability weighted average of all the
possible returns. If the possible returns are denoted by Ri and the related probabilities are
pi the expected return may be represented as E(R) and can be calculated as:
Here,
E[R] = the expected return on the stock,
N = the number of states,
pi = the probability of state i, and
Ri = the return on the stock in state i.
136
It is the sum of the products of possible returns with their respective probabilities. The
expected return of the share in the example given above can be calculated as shown
below:
Calculation of Expected Return:
Where,
N = the number of states,
pi = the probability of state i,
Ri = the return on the stock in state i, and
E[R] = the expected return on the stock.
137
The standard deviation is calculated as the positive square root of the variance.
SD (σB) = 20.49%
The rationale behind calculation of variance and standard deviation is to measure the
extent of variability of possible returns from the expected return. There are several other
measures also but standard deviation has been the most popularly accepted measure.
This method is commonly used for assessing risk and is also known as the mean
variance approach.
The standard deviation or variance provides a measure of the total risk associated with a
security. The total risk comprises two components, namely systematic risk and
unsystematic risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk specific or unique to a company.
Unsystematic risk associated with the security can be eliminated or reduced by
diversification. This collection of diverse securities is called a portfolio. With
diversification the investment is spread over a group of securities with different
characteristics. The principle of diversification is as follows:
Diversification can substantially reduce the variability of returns without an
equivalent reduction in expected returns;
138
This reduction in risk arises because worse-than-expected returns from one asset are
offset by better-than-expected returns from another asset;
However, there is a minimum level of risk that cannot be diversified away -that is the
systematic portion.
The above diagram depicts how the risk can be reduced with the increase in the number
of securities. It should be noted that by combining many securities in a portfolio the
unsystematic risk can be avoided or cancelled out which is attached to any particular
security. However, ultimately when the size of the portfolio reaches certain limit, it will
contain only the systematic risk of securities included in the portfolio. As unsystematic
risk can be eliminated or reduced through diversification, it is not relevant for an
investor. The risk that is relevant in investment decisions is the systematic risk because it
is not diversifiable. Hence, the main interest of the investor lies in the measurement of
systematic risk of a security.
Activity B :
2. Calculate the expected return, variance, and standard deviation of returns for a stock
having the following probability distribution:
Return on Return on
State Probability
Stock A Stock B
1 10% -15% -10%
2 40% 10% 30%
3 30% 35% 10%
4 20% 20% 40%
139
Measurement of Systematic Risk
Systematic risk is the risk inherent to the entire market or entire market segment. It is
also known as "undiversifiable risk" or "market risk." Thus it is the variability in security
returns caused by changes in the economy or the market and all securities are affected by
such changes to some extent. Some securities show greater variability in response to
market changes and some may exhibit less response. Securities that are more sensitive to
changes in factors are said to have higher systematic risk. The average effect of a change
in the economy can be represented by the change in the stock market index. The
systematic risk of a security can be measured by relating that security’s variability in
respect of variability in the stock market index.
The systematic risk of a security is measured by Beta. This measure quantifies a stock’s
risk in relation to the market. It is a measure of the extent to which the returns on a given
stock move with the stock market. The tendency of a stock to move with the market is
reflected in its beta coefficient (β), which is a measure of the stock’s volatility relative to
that of the overall market. The main input data required for the calculation of beta of any
security are the historical data of returns of the individual security and corresponding
return of a representative market return (stock market index). The market has a beta of
1.0. Hence, a stock with a beta greater than 1.0 will have a greater volatility than the
overall market, and vice versa. There are two statistical methods i.e. correlation method
and the regression method, which can be used for the calculation of Beta.
i) Correlation Method
By means of this method, beta (β) can be calculated from the historical data of returns by
the following formula:
140
the values of two constants, namely alpha (α) and beta (β). β measures the change in the
dependent variable in response to unit change in the independent variable, while α
measures the value of the dependent variable even when the independent variable has
zero value. The formula of the regression equation is as follows:
Y= α+βX
Y= Dependent variable
X= Independent variable
α and β are contants
The formula used for the calculation of α and β are given below:
α = x – βy
β= n∑XY- (∑X) (∑Y)
n∑X2 – ((∑X)2
Where,
n = Number of items.
x = Mean value of the dependent variable scores.
y =Mean value of independent variable scores.
Y = Dependent variable scores.
X = Independent variable scores.
For calculation of β, the return of the individual security is taken as the dependent
variable and the return of the market index is taken as the independent variable. The
regression equation is represented as follows:
Ri=α+βiRm
Where,
Ri= Return of the individual security.
Rm= Retum of the market index.
α= Estimated return of the security when the market is stationary.
βi = Change in the return of the individual security in response to unit change in the
return of the market index. It is, thus, the measure of systematic risk of a security.
141
Zero Beta - Basically indicates that security’s return is independent of the market
return.
Beta between 0 and 1 - Companies with volatilities lower than the market have a
beta of less than 1 (but more than 0). Many utilities fall in this range.
Beta greater than 1 - This denotes a volatility that is greater than the broad-based
index. Many technology companies have a beta higher than 1.
Activity C :
3. Calculate the expected return, variance, and standard deviation of returns for a stock
having the following probability distribution:
Return on Return on
State Probability
Stock ABC Stock BXY
1 20% 15% 30%
2 40% -10% 40%
3 10% 25% 20%
4 30% 20% 20%
8.7 Summary
Investors purchase financial assets such as shares because they desire to increase their
wealth, i.e., earn a positive rate of return on their investments. The future, however, is
uncertain; investors do not know what rate of return their investments will realize. In
finance, we assume that individuals base their decisions on what they expect to happen
and their assessment of how likely it is that what actually occurs will be close to what
they expected to happen. When evaluating potential investments in financial assets, these
two dimensions of the decision making process are called expected return and risk. Risk
reflects the chance that the actual return on an investment may be very different than the
expected return. An asset's total risk consists of both systematic and unsystematic risk.
Systematic risk, which is also called market risk or undiversifiable risk, is the portion of
an asset's risk that cannot be eliminated via diversification. The systematic risk indicates
how including a particular asset in a diversified portfolio will contribute to the riskiness
of the portfolio. Unsystematic risk, which is also called firm-specific or diversifiable
risk, is the portion of an asset's total risk that can be eliminated by including the security
as part of a diversifiable portfolio. One way to measure risk is to calculate the variance
and standard deviation of the distribution of returns. The method of used for evaluating
systematic risk is Beta.
142
8.8 Self Assessment Questions
1. Which one of the following is an example of diversifiable risk?
a) the price of electricity just increased
b) the employees of Textile, Inc. just voted to go on strike
c) the government just imposed new safety standards for all employees
d) the government just lowered corporate income tax rates
e) the cost of group health insurance just increased nationwide
2. Which of the following are examples of undiversifiable risks?
a) the inflation rate spikes nationwide
b) an unexpected terrorist event occurs
c) the price of lumber suddenly spikes
d) taxes are increased on hotels
3. What is risk? How it is measured?
4. What are the different types of risk? Explain how they are diversified.
5. What is Beta? How it is interpreted?
6. Write short note on:
a) Business risk
b) Market risk
c) Operational risk
d) Purchasing power risk
143
Unit – 9 : Economic and Industry Analysis
Structure of Unit
9.0 Objectives
9.1 Introduction
9.2 What is Fundamental Analysis?
9.3 How does Fundamental Analysis works?
9.4 Economic Analysis
9.5 Industry Analysis
9.6 Summary
9.7 Self Assessment Questions
9.8 Reference Books.
9.0 Objectives
After completing this chapter, you would will be able to understand :
Concept of Fundamental Analysis
Techniques of performing Fundamental Analysis
Various economic indicators and tools of economic analysis
Economic Forecasting and its techniques
The concept of Industry Analysis and Industry life cycle
Key Indicators of Industry Analysis
9.1 Introduction
Fundamental analysis is a stock valuation methodology that uses financial and economic
analysis to envisage the movement of stock prices. The fundamental data that is analysed
could include a company’s financial reports and non-financial information such as
estimates of its growth, demand for products sold by the company, industry
comparisons, economy-wide changes, changes in government policies etc. Fundamental
analysis is based on the premise that a security has an intrinsic value at any given time.
According to fundamental analysts the intrinsic value and market value can vary from
time to time. A share that is quoting below the intrinsic / fundamental value should be
bought, while a share that is priced above the intrinsic value should be sold. The
144
fundamental analysts attempt to find out such under or overpriced shares for their
investment decisions. They believe that though in the short run, market price may differ
from the intrinsic value, but eventually the investors will recognize the discrepancy and
act to bring the two values together.
145
b) Bottom-up approach: In this approach, an analyst starts the search with specific
businesses, irrespective of their industry/region.
146
9.4 Economic Analysis
Investors are concerned with those factors in the economy which affect the performance
of the companies in which they want to invest. Economic analysis helps in assessing the
future corporate earnings and the payment of dividends and interest to investors.
9.4.1 Economic forecasting:
An understanding of economic forces that affect stock prices facilitates forecasting likely
changes in the market by using data on the economic variables. The performance of the
industries and specific companies depends upon how will the economy performs in the
future, both long term as well as short term. Long term forecasts are usually made for a
period generally refers to a period from one to three years. Intermediate period refers to
a period of three to five years.
9.4.2 Economic Forecasting techniques: - There are basically four economic
forecasting techniques:-
a) Economic Indicators
b) Diffusion Indexes
c) Econometric model building
d) GNP model building
a) Economic Indicators
An economic indicator ia a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators
allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. These
indicators act like a barometer. One application of economic indicators is the study of
business cycles. It helps in getting boom and recessions. Economic indicators can be
classified into three categories : leading indicators, laggnig indicators, and coincidental
indicators.
i) Leading Indicators
Leading indicators are indicators that usually cahnge before the economy as a whole
changes. The lead indicator approach attempts to forecast the general economic
conditions by identifying economic indicators that turn ahead of the change in general
level of economic activity. They are therefore useful as short term predictors of the
economy. Stock market returns are a leading indicator : the stock market usually begins
to decline befor the economy as a whole declines and usually begins to increase before
the general economy begins to recover from a recession. Since these satatistics precede (
one to twelvw months ) other changes in the economic activity, they are used to forecast
the forthcoming pattern of the overall economy. Major leading indicators include, orders
of durable goods, orders for plant and equipment, change in raw material prices,
corporate profits and share prices, new housing starts, business formation and failures
and money supply (M2).
147
ii) Lagging Indicators
A lagging indicator is one that follows an evet. These indicators tends to change only
after an economy has already changed, or has begun to follow a particular pattern or
trend. They trail behind ( usually 3 to 6 months ) the overall economic cycle. Major
lagging indicators include the average duration of unemployment, outstanding consumer
and business loans, business spending, consumer price index, unit labour costs, book
value of business inventories etc.
iii) Coincidental Indicators
These indicators occur at approximately the same time as the conditions they signify.
These indicators change almost at the same time as the whole economy, thereby
providing information about the current state of the economy. Major coincidental
indicators include, manufacturing and trade sales, nonfarm payroll employment, index of
industrial production, manufacturing and trade sale etc.
b) Diffusion Index
The diffusion index is a method which combines the different indicators into one total
measure and it gives the weaknesses and strengths of a particular time series of dta. It is
a measure of how widespread a phenomenon is. It is a measure of the percentage of say,
leading indicators that have advanced / increased or are showing a positive momentum
over a definite period. It breaks down the indexes and analyses the components
separately, exhibiting the degree to which they are moving in agreement with the
dominant direction of the index. If four out of , say ten leading indicators rise during a
particular quarter, the diffusion index for that quarter will be 40 percent. If in the next
quarter, six seven rises ( may not include all the four rise in the last quarter ), the index
for that quarter will be 70 percent. The diffusion index of the current quarter is to be
compared with the past quarter interpretation and a rise of 40 percent to 70 percent in the
index is a stronger confirmation of a period of economic advance.
c) Econometric model building
Econometrics is the application of mathematical methods to economic data to forecast
the future trend of the economy. This technique is used to draw out relationship between
two or more variable. This is an approach to determine the precise relationship between
the dependent and the independent variables to forecast a direction as well as magnitude.
Econometric models can be used effectively for future projections if and only if
estimated coefficients are found to be acceptable in respect of their stability over time.
148
d) GNP model building
This is also called sect oral analysis or opportunistic model building. This approach
forecast GNP in the short run by using the national accounting data. The method is use
to find out the total income and total demand for the forecast period. It takes into
consideration the political stability, economic and fiscal policies of the government and
also emphasizes on taxation policies and interest and inflation rates.
Companies are part of the industrial and business sector, which in turn is a part of the
overall economy. Thus the performance of a company depends on the performance of
the economy in the first place. In the Indian economy, the matters to be considered are :
i) The behaviour of the monsoon and the performance of the agriculture. Good
monsoon, income increases, demand for the industrial products increases and service
and manufacturing sector proper’s.
ii) A study of economic trends as indicated by the rate of growth in gross national
product, employment, aggregate corporate profits, personal disposable income,
balance of payment position, inflation, government spending, money supply etc.
iii) A study of economic policies of the government including plan priorities, monetary
policies, EXIM policy, fiscal policy, industrial policy, regulation and control of
price, wages and production.
iv) The general business conditions in the form of business cycles or level of business
activity and the performance of industry. Performance of agriculture, availability of
power and other infrastructural outputs and imported inputs and a host of other
factors influencing the demand, cost and profit margins of companies.
v) The economic and political stability in the form of stable and long term economic
policies and a stable political system with no uncertainty would also be necessary for
a good performance of the economy in general and of companies in particular.
All the above factors of the economy influence the corporate performance and the
industry in general. In any investment analysis a broad picture of these factors and a
forecast of the growth of the economy and of industry would be necessary to decide
when to invest and what to invest in.
In general the analysis of the following factors indicates the trends in economic changes
that effect the risk and return on investments.
Monetary Policy
Industrial production
Capacity utilisation
Unemployment
Inflation
149
GDP growth rate
Financial Institutions (FI’s) lending
Stock prices
Monsoons
Productivity of factors of production
Fiscal deficit
Stock of food grains and essential commodities
Industrial policy
Foreign trade and balance of payment position
Political and economical stability
Innovation in Technology
Infrastructural facilities
Economic planning
EXIM policy
Interest rates
Foreign investments
Capital market trends
Business cycle
Foreign exchange reserves, etc.
When an investor has a made an analysis of the domestic economic factors on the basis
of the leading, lagging and coincidental indicators including the industrial, EXIM, fiscal,
monetary policies together with the above mentioned factors such as demographic
factors etc. to find out the direction of trend, the next step in fundamental analysis is to
analyse the industry / sector in which to invest.
Activity B :
1. “ Knowing, analysing and understanding the current state of affairs in the economy
is useful and essential for analysing the investment in the securities.” In the light of
this statement , explain the relevance of economic analysis.
After conducting an analysis of the economy and identifying the direction of the
economy in terms of various industries, the next step in the fundamental analysis is
industry analysis. An investor ultimately invests his money in the securities of one or
more specific companies. Each company can be characterized as belonging to an
industry. The performance of the companies would therefore, be influenced by the
fortunes of the industry to which it belongs. For this reason an analyst has to under-take
150
an industry analysis so as to study the fundamental factors affecting the performance of
different industries. At any stage of economy, there are some industries, which are fast
growing and others are stagnating or declining. If an industry is growing the companies
within the industries may also be prosperous. The performance of the companies will
depend, among other things, upon the state of industry to which they belong. Industry
analysis refers to the evaluation of the relative strength and weakness of particular
industries.
There are many bases on which grouping of companies can be done. Traditional
classification is generally done product – wise like steel, IT, pharmaceuticals, textile,
FMCG etc. Such a classification, though useful, does not help much in investment
decision – making. Classification of industries from investment decision making point of
view are as follows :
a) Growth Industry
A sector of the economy experiencing a higher-than-average growth rate. This is an
industry that is expected to grow consistently and its growth may exceed the average
growth of the economy. Growth industries are often associated with new or pioneer
industries that did not exist in the past and their growth is related to consumer demand
for the new products or services offered by the firms within the industry. For eg.,
telecom, infrastructure, capital goods etc.
b) Cyclical Industry
An industry which is sensitiv to business cycles and whose performance is tied to
the overall economy, specially interest rates. Many cyclical industries produce durable
commodity- like goods such as raw materials, cars, chemicals, construction, paper, steel,
and heavy equipment. Given the durable nature of the goods, such purchases often get
postponed in poor economic conditions, but sell especially well in good economic
conditions.
c) Defensive Industry
A industry whose sales and earnings remain relatively stable during both economic
upturns and downturns. Defensive industries may lag behind other industries during
periods of economic expansion due to the relative stability of the demand for its products
and services. While the demand for some goods and services tends to decrease
dramatically during periods of economic instability or turmoil, the demand for the goods
and services provided by defensive industries tends to remain stable. Companies in
the food, utilities, healthcare and non-durable goods (soap, toothpaste) industries tend to
perform more evenly through good and bad economic times.
151
9.5.1 Industry Life Cycle
Another creteria to classify industries is the various stages of development. Industries
evolve through four stages - the pioneering stage, the expansion stage, the stabilisation
stage and the decay stage.
a) Pioneering stage
The early stages of an industry are often characterized by a new technology or product.
In this beginning phase the product or industry starts with sales of zero and operates at a
loss as initial sales obtained. Thereafter its demand not only grows but grows at an
increasing rate. A great opportunity exists for profits and a large number of firms attempt
to capture their share of the market, there arises a higher business mortality rate; many of
the weaker firms attempting to survive in this new industry are eliminated, and a lesser
number of firms survive this phase. A security analyst will have a difficult task at this
stage selecting those firms that will on top for some time to come. Even if the analyst
can recognize an emerging industry in the pioneering stage, he will probably not invest
at this point in the industry’s development because of the great risks involved and
because of the tremendous difficulty in selecting the survivors.
b) Expansion Stage
The expansion stage is characterized by the appearance of the firms surviving from the
pioneering stage. Sales of these companies grow rapidly and consistent annual profits
usually begin to emerge during this stage. Their competition in the expansion stage
brings about improved products at a lower price. These firms continue to expand but at a
moderate rate of growth than that experienced in the pioneering stage. These now
stronger, steadier, more efficient firms become more attractive for investment purposes.
However these firms reinvest much of their earnings paying small rate of dividend and
also borrow heavily in order to finance its additional capital investments needed to
sustain this period of rapid growth. Solvency is difficult to maintain as a firm expands
rapidly
c) Stagnation Stage
Following years of rapid growth during which the firms in an industry tend to acquire
stable market shares, come years of slower growth which comprise the third stage.
Mature growth companies may be large corporations, they may begin to pay consistent
cash dividends and they repay any excessive debt they acquired during their period of
rapid expansion. At this point the product has reached its full potential for use by
consumers and profit margins become narrower. Firms at his stage sometimes are
categorized as cash cows, having reasonably stable cash flow but offering little
opportunity for profitable expansion. The cash cow is best ‘milked from’ rather than
reinvested in the company.
152
d) Decay Stage
In this stage, the industry might grow at less than the rate of the overall economy, or
even it might even shrink. This could be due to obsolescence of the product, competition
from new products, or competitions from new low cost suppliers. Customers have
changed their habits, style and preference. So the industry becomes obsolete and
gradually ceases to exist. The changes in the technology and declining in the demand are
the major causes for the decay of an industry. The investors should disinvest when
signals of decline are evident. The life cycle theory is better for explaining the behavior
of industries than it is for explaining the behavior of individual firms because many
firms fall in to bankruptcy during stages one and two. Even in those cases it is
applicable, the life cycle approach can be difficult to interpret because there are no set
time dimensions on a product’s life. The experience of most industries suggest that they
go through the four phases of the industry life cycle, though there are considerable
variations in terms of the relative duration of various stages and the rates of growth
during these stages. Because of these variations, it may not be easy to define what the
current stage is, how long it will last, and what would be its precise growth rate.
9.5.2 Key Indicators of Industry Analysis
Past Sales
Past earnings
Attitude of government
Labour conditions
Competitive conditions
Technological progress
Industry share prices
Price earning multiples
Strengths and weaknesses
Opportunities and threats
Product line
Raw material and inputs
Capacity installed and utilised
Economies of scale
Capital requirements
Distribution channels
Product differentiation
Threat of entry
153
9.5.3 SWOT Analysis
To select a industry among different industries, an evaluation is done on the basis of
strength weakness analysis in the major functional areas, like marketing, finance, human
resources and production.
Marketing
1 Popularityand regard
2 Market share
3 Quality image
4 Service reputation
5 Distribution costs
6 Sales force
7 Market forces
Finance
1 Cost of capital
2 Funds availabilty
3 Profitability
4 Financial stability
Production
Facilities
1 Economies of scale
2 Capacity utilization
3 Labour productivity
4 Manufacturing costs
5 Raw material availability
6 Technology progress
7 Human Resources
Leadership
1 Management capabilities
2 Workers attitude
3 Entrepreneurial competence
4 Skill development
5 Industrial relations
6
Activity C :
1. “Industry life cycle exhibits the position of the industry and gives clue to entry and
exit for investors.” Explain
2. Why does portfolio manager do the industry analysis?
154
9.5.4 Porter’s Five Forces – A Model for Industry Analysis
Michael Porter, provided a framework for analyzing the competitive conditions
prevailing in an industry and its relation with the industry’s profitability. In his model,
Porter has identified five competitive forces those altogether can drive competition or
determine the profit potential or strength of an industry. The forces identified by Porter
in his study include-
a) Threat of new entrants
b) Rivalry among the existing firms
c) Pressure from the substitute products
d) Bargaining power of buyers
e) Bargaining power of sellers
155
c) Pressure from Substitute Products
Pressure from substitute products means the industry faces competition from firms in
related industries. To the economist, a threat of substitutes exists when a product’s
demand is affected by the price change of a substitute product. The availability of
substitutes limits the prices that can be charged to customers.
d) Bargaining Power of Buyers
The bargaining power of buyers is the influence that the customers have on a producing
industry. If a buyer purchases a large fraction of an industry’s output, it will have a
considerable bargaining power and can demand price concessions. Sometimes the buyers
possess a credible backward integration net thereby can threaten to buy the producing
firm or its rival. But when the products are not standardized the switching cost to buyer
will be very high which constraints the buyer to switch from one product to another
frequently.
e) Bargaining Power of Suppliers
A producing industry requires materials, labor and other supplies. This requirement leads
to buyer supplier relationships between the industry and the firms that provide it the
supplies used to create products. If the suppliers of a key input has monopolistic control
over the product or they supply critical portions of buyers input, then the supplier can
demand higher prices for the goods supplied and squeeze profits out of the industry.
Here the key factor determining the bargaining power of suppliers is the availability of
substitute products. If the substitutes are available, the supplier has little clout and cannot
extract higher prices. Michael Porter identified three generic strategies – cost leadership,
product differentiation and focus strategies that can be implemented at the business unit
level to create competitive advantage. The proper generic strategy will position the firm
to leverage its strengths and defend against the adverse effects of the five forces.
The economic and industry analysis is made by fundamental analyst in order to have a
broad idea of the forces affecting the investment scenario. Apart from these two
measures, the third analysis called company analysis (discussed in next chapter) is more
precise, definite and accurate.
156
9.5 Summary
Fundamental analysis is a stock valuation methodology that uses financial and economic
analysis to envisage the movement of stock prices. The fundamental data that is
analysed could include company’s financial reports and non financial information such
as estimates of its growth, demand for products sold by the company, industry
comparisons, economy – wide changes, changes in government policies etc. The
outcome of fundamental analysis is a value (or a range of values) of the stock of the
company called its ‘intrinsic value’ (often called ‘price target’ in fundamental analysts’
parlance). To a fundamental investor, the market price of a stock tends to revert towards
its intrinsic value. To find the intrinsic value of a company, the fundamental analyst
initially takes a top-down view of the economic environment; the current and future
overall health of the economy as a whole. After the analysis of the macro-economy, the
next step is to analyze the industry environment which the firm is operating in. One
should analyze all the factors that give the firm a competitive advantage in its sector,
such as, management experience, history of performance, growth potential, low cost of
production, brand name etc. This step of the analysis entails finding out as much as
possible about the industry and the inter-relationships of the companies operating in the
industry.
157
Unit -10 : Company Analysis
Structure of Unit
10.0 Objectives
10.1 Introduction
10.2 What is Company Analysis ?
10.3 Framework of Company Analysis
10.4 Summary
10.5 Self Assessment Questions
11.6 Reference Books
10.0 Objectives
After reading this unit you should be able to understand :
Meaning and concept of Company analysis
Framework of doing Company analysis
Various Non – Financial parameters
Financial parameters of performing Company analysis
Cash flow statement analysis
Common size statement analysis
10.1 Introduction
Company analysis is the last step in the E-I-C analysis framework. Economic and
industry framework provides the investor with proper background against which shares
of a particular company are purchased. The economy analysis helps the investor a broad
outline of the prospects of the growth in the economy. The industry analysis helps the
investor to select the industry in which investment would be rewarding. Now he has to
decide the company in which he should invest his money. Company Analysis provides
the answer to this question. It deals with the estimation of return and risk of individual
shares. This calls for information. Many pieces of information influence investment
decisions. Information regarding companies can be broadly classified into two broad
categories: Internal & External. Internal information consists of data and events made
public by companies concerning their operations. The internal information sources
include annual reports to shareholders, public and private statements of officers of the
company, the company’s financial statements etc. External sources of information are
those generated independently outside the company.
158
10.2 What is Company Analysis?
Company analysis is a method of evaluating and assessing the competitive position of a
firm, its earning and profitability, the efficiency with which it operates, its financial
position and its future with respect to the earnings of its shareholders. In the company
analysis the inventor assimilates the several bites of information related to the company
and evaluates the present and the future values of the stock. The risk and return
associated with the purchase of the stock is analysed to take better investment decisions.
The valuation process depends upon the investors’ ability to elicit information from the
relationship and inter relationship among the company related variables.
Analysis of the company consists of measuring its performance and ascertaining the
cause of this performance. When some companies have done well irrespective of
economic or industry failure, this implies that there are certain unique characteristics for
this particular company that had made it a success. The identification of these
characteristics, whether quantitative or qualitative, is referred to as company analysis.
Quantitative indicators of company analysis are the financial and operational efficiency
indicators. These indicators are the profitability and financial position indicators
analyzed through the income and balance sheet statements, of the company. Operational
indicators are capacity utilization and cost versus sales efficiency of the company, which
includes the marketing edge of the company.
Besides the quantitative factors, qualitative factors of a company also influence
investment decision process of an investor. The present and the future values of a
company’s share price are affected by a number of factors and they are as follows:-
Factors Share value
Competitive edge Historic price of stock
Earnings P/E ratio
Capital structure Economic condition
Management Stock market condition
Operating efficiency
Financial performance
159
10.3 Frame work of company analysis
Company analysis is made on the basis of two major parameters:-
10.3.1 Nonfinancial parameters
10.3.2 Financial parameters
A good analysis gives proper weightage to both these aspects and tries to make an
appropriate judgment
Activity A :
1. What is the framework of company analysis?
10.3.1 Non Financial Parameters Include
a) History and business of the company
b) Management team
c) Vision and mission of the co.
d) Product range
e) Future plans of expansion/diversification
f) Research & Development
g) Market share
h) Corporate Governance
i) Location and Labour – Management Relations
j) Goodwill
k) Government controls and Regulations
l) Customers
m) Competition
n) Competitive Advantage
a) History and Business of the Company
The investor should know the history and business of the company, whether the
company is a well established one, whether it has a good product range what are the
growth potentials of the company.
b) Management Team
The single most important factor one should consider when investing in a company, is its
management. It is upon the quality, competence and vision of the management that the
future of company rests. A good, competent management can make a company grow
while a weak, inefficient management can destroy a thriving company. Some of the
qualitative indicators of the management team to be looked for are:-
Integrity of Management
Past record of management
160
How highly is the management rated by its peers in the same industry?
How the management fares in adversity?
The depth of knowledge of the management
The management must be open, innovative and must also have a strategy
c) Vision and Mission of Company
A mission statement is spelled out to narrate what the organization is about. It talks
about what the company is right now. It lists the broad goals for which the company is
formed. It discusses in details what the company does, what the structure is and
what its plans are. A vision statement talks about what the company wants to be. It
describes what the "vision" of the company is for its future. It lists where the company
sees itself some years from now.
d) Product range
Growing companies like FMCG keeps launching new products with regular frequency.
They are having full range of products. Hence, investors must examine whether the
company under review belongs to this group or not.
e) Future plans of expansion/diversification
Diversification is a corporate strategy to increase sales volume from new products and
new markets. Diversification can be expanding into a new segment of an industry that
the business is already in, or investing in a promising business outside of the scope of the
existing business. In order to improve profitability and to reduce the business risk, many
companies resort to diversification. Therefore this issue is to be carefully examined by
the investor.
f) Research and Development
New product design and development is more often than not a crucial factor in the
survival of a company. In an industry that is changing fast, firms must continually revise
their design and range of products.This is necessary due to continuous technology
change and development as well as other competitors and the changing preference of
customers Growing companies spend substantial amount on R & D to improve their
existing product, introduce new products, etc.
g) Market share
Understanding a company's present market share can tell volumes about the company's
business. The fact that a company possesses an 80% market share tells that it is the
largest player in its market by far. Furthermore, this could also suggest that the company
possesses some sort of "economic moat," in other words, a competitive barrier serving to
protect its current and future earnings, along with its market share. Market share is
important because of economies of scale. When the firm is bigger than the rest of its
rivals, it is in a better position to absorb the high fixed costs of a capital-intensive
industry.
161
h) Corporate Governance
Corporate governance describes the policies in place within an organization denoting the
relationships and responsibilities between management, directors and stakeholders.
These policies are defined and determined in the company charter and its bylaws, along
with corporate laws and regulations. The purpose of corporate governance policies is to
ensure that proper checks and balances are in place, making it more difficult for anyone
to conduct unethical and illegal activities.
i) Location and Labour- Management Relations
The location of the company’s manufacturing facilities determines its economic
viability which depends on the availability of crucial inputs like power, skilled-unskilled
labour and raw-materials, etc. Nearness to markets is also an important factor to be
considered. In the recent past, the investment manager has begun looking into the state
of labour-management relations in the company under consideration and the area where
it is located.
j) Goodwill
The value of a company’s brand name, solid customer base, good customer relations,
good employee relations and any patents or proprietary technology represent
goodwill. It is an assumed value of the attractive force that generates sales revenue in
a business, and adds value to its assets. Goodwill is an intangible but saleable asset,
almost indestructible except by indiscretion. Goodwill includes the worth of corporate
identity, and is enhanced by corporate image and a proper location. Its value is not
recognized in account books but is realized when the business is sold, and is reflected in
the firm's selling price by the amount in excess over the firm's net worth. In
well established firms, goodwill may be worth many times the worth of its physical
assets.
162
to the public, they can drastically affect the attractiveness of a company for investment
purposes.
In industries where one or two companies represent the entire industry for a region (such
as utility companies), governments usually specify how much profit each company can
make. In these instances, while there is the potential for sizable profits, they are limited
due to regulation. In other industries, regulation can play a less direct role in affecting
industry pricing.
l) Customers
Some companies serve only a handful of customers, while others serve millions. In
general, it's a red flag (a negative) if a business relies on a small number of customers
for a large portion of its sales because the loss of each customer could dramatically
affect revenues.
m) Competition
Simply looking at the number of competitors goes a long way in understanding the
competitive landscape for a company. Industries that have limited barriers to entry and a
large number of competing firms create a difficult operating environment for firms.
One of the biggest risks within a highly competitive industry is pricing power. This
refers to the ability of a supplier to increase prices and pass those costs on to customers.
Companies operating in industries with few alternatives have the ability to pass on costs
to their customers.
n) Competitive Advantage
Another business consideration for investors is competitive advantage. A company's
long-term success is driven largely by its ability to maintain a competitive advantage -
and keep it. Powerful competitive advantages, such as Tata’s brand name and HUL
domination of the FMCG business , create a moat around a business allowing it to keep
competitors at bay and enjoy growth and profits. When a company can achieve
competitive advantage, its shareholders can be well rewarded for decades.
Activity B :
1. Discuss the various non – financial factors considered to be most important in
appraising companies in different industries.
10.3.2 Financial Parameters :-
Financial analysis is the selection, evaluation and interpretation of financial and other
pertinent information, to assist in investment and financial decision-making. Financial
analysis may be used internally to evaluate issues such as employee performance, the
efficiency of operations, and credit policies, and externally to evaluate potential
investments and the credit-worthiness of borrowers, among other things. The analyst
163
draws the financial data needed in financial analysis from many sources. The primary
source is the data provided by the company itself in its annual report and required
disclosures. The annual report comprises the income statement, the balance sheet, and
the statement of cash flows etc.
Besides information that companies are required to disclose through financial
statements, other information is readily available for financial analysis. Information such
as the market prices of securities of publicly traded companies can be found in the
financial press and the electronic media daily. Similarly, information on stock price
indices for the industries and for the market as a whole is available in the financial press.
In other words, financial analysis is figuring out what information to use and how to use
it. The tools that we use to analyse the company’s financial information include :
(A) Financial ratio analysis
(B) Cash flow analysis
(C) Common size analysis.
164
Too small a ratio indicates that there is some potential difficulty in covering obligations.
A high ratio may indicate that the firm has too many assets tied up in current assets and
is not making efficient use to them.
b) Quick Ratio (Acid Test Ratio)
The quick (or acid-test) ratio is a more stringent measure of liquidity. Only liquid assets
are taken into account. Inventory and other assets are excluded, as they may be difficult
to dispose of.
Quick Ratio = Current Assets - Inventory
Current Liabilities
This is often more meaningful than the current ratio as some current assets may not be
readily convertible to cash eg inventory. It is calculated by dividing current liabilities
into current assets less inventory. It is generally accepted that the quick ratio should not
be less than 1.0. While possible to operate with a lower level a value significantly less
than 1.0 is cause for concern, while 1.5 is excellent.
(B) Long Term Liquidity/Solvency
These ratios reflect the company's borrowings - how much, for how long and how easily
interest payments can be met and are about its healthiness and ability to survive in the
longer term.
(a) Debt to Equity (Gearing Ratio)
Debt to equity is calculated by dividing the company's total debt by shareholders funds
less intangibles.
Debt to Equity = Total Debt
Shareholders’ Funds - Intangibles
This ratio measures the amount of long term borrowing (interest bearing) compared to
shareholder's equity and reflects choices made by management about how it raises funds
- either borrowing or raising new equity. Generally the lower the better but can also be
too low for a company to be effectively using its assets – some debt is usually good. It
can vary significantly from sector to sector and should generally be compared within the
sector or against the sector "average".
(b) Interest Coverage ratio
This ratio indicates the degree of protection available to creditors by measuring the
extent to which earnings available for interest covers required interest payments.
Interest Coverage Ratio = Earnings before interest and tax
Interest expense
This ratio shows the number of times a company's interest payments are covered by its
earnings and reflects a company's ability to meet interest payments and make profits in
165
bad times. The higher the ratio the better as this provides more security. A ratio of less
than 2.0 may indicate that the company will have problems meeting interest charges
while ratios greater than 3-4 are fine and provide increasing security.
(2) Operating Efficiency Ratios
These ratios reflect how efficiently management is using the company's assets and
comparisons between companies should generally be made within sectors comparing
like against like.
(a) Asset Turnover
This is calculated by dividing assets into sales.
Asset Turnover = Sales
Assets
This indicates how efficiently a company is using its assets to create sales. Some
companies require expensive assets for eg., a steel maker, while service companies may
have few assets. The quicker the turnover the better the ratio, but the ratio varies
between industries/sectors.
(b) Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover = Cost of Sales
Inventory
The figure is often hard to find and is usually calculated by substituting sales for cost of
sales (cost price of the goods sold). It indicates how quickly a company turns over its
inventory i.e., how quickly it sells its warehoused goods. The quicker the turnover the
better but it varies significantly between industries/sectors. Within a company the
comparison should be with previous years and between companies be made within
sectors.
(c) Accounts Payable Turnover (Average Payment Period)
Accounts Payable Turnover = Trade Creditors x
365
Sales
This ratio represents the time, on average, in days, it takes for a company to pay its bills
(trade creditors). Generally the longer the better as a company has use of the money for a
longer period and can use it for other purposes or it may need to use less of a borrowing
facility. However, if a company is progressively taking longer to pay its bills this may be
cause for concern and may indicate cash flow problems.
(d) Accounts Receivable Turnover (Average Collection Period)
Accounts Receivable Turnover = Trade Debtors x 365
Sales
166
This ratio represents the time, on average, in days, it takes for a company to collect
money owing to it (trade debtors). This measures the length of time the company's
debtors take to pay their accounts and generally the shorter the better.
(3) Investment Performance Ratios
These ratios relate the information in company financial statements to the company's
shares and reflect how the stock market considers the company.
(a) Total Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover = Sales
Total Assets
It is a measure of how hard the company is working its assets to create sales. The greater
the value the more efficiently assets have been used to generate sales.
(b) EBIT Margin (Earnings Before Interest and Tax)
EBIT Margin = EBIT x 100
Sales
This shows how much profit the company is making as a percentage of sales. A rising
profit margin (irrespective of whether sales/profits are rising or falling) indicates greater
efficiency. Falling costs as a percentage of sales can be due to interest fluctuations.
Generally a high margin is better but a lower margin will be found with high turnover
goods. EBIT is a measure of operating efficiency.
(c) Net Profit Margin or Operating Profit Margin (NOPAT)
This ratio is similar to EBIT margin but uses profit after tax. It is a measure of corporate
efficiency and is calculated by dividing operating profit after tax by operating revenue
(excluding abnormals and extraordinary items because they distort the figures).
Net Profit Margin = Operating Profit After Tax X 100
Operating Revenue
Acceptable values vary between sectors so compare like with like and
look for a company where the profit margin increases with time.
(d) Return on Assets (ROA) or Return on Investment (ROI)
Return on Assets = EBIT x 100
Total Assets
This is a measure of a company's ability to make profits from its assets. It is an important
and dynamic ratio as it reflects the links between operating revenue, costs and profits
with the underlying asset base. It declines if: sales fall, costs increase faster than sales or
assets increase faster than post tax operating profit. It shows how effectively assets are
being used and is a measure of operational management rather than financial
management. Look for a return that compares favorably within the sector plus increases
167
over time. It can be compared with current interest rates to see what could theoretically
be earned if a company sold off all its assets and invested them in an interest bearing
deposit. Note that the EBIT figure in reports spans 12 months while the assets figure is
an end of year figure and a particularly large purchase late in year may swell assets but
contribute little to the year's profits. The higher the ratio the better, but only compare like
with like. Book value can also change quickly at times e.g., times of rapid inflation so
make sure these are accurate.
(e) ROE (Return on Equity/Return on Shareholders’ Equity)
Return on Equity = Net Profit After Tax x 100
Shareholders’ Equity
ROE measures the return a company achieves with shareholders' funds and the higher
the better. A high ROE should enable a company to pay a good dividend and to plough
back funds for growth. Ideally a company should achieve an ROE greater than current
interest rate or at least have the prospect of doing so. It is one of best indicators of
overall performance and can be compared with the return from any other investment. It
can also be calculated by dividing return on assets by shareholders' equity. A company
with a high ROE over a period of time is a highly desirable investment.
168
(g) Earnings Yield
Earnings Yield = Earnings per Share
Current Share Price
It is a useful measure of evaluating company performance and can be compared with
general interest rates from cash etc. Dividend yield has some comparative shortcomings
because it depends upon the payout ratio decided upon by the company and ignores the
potential benefit to the company of that part of its profits which it retains and ploughs
back into the company.
(h) Price Earnings Ratio (PE)
169
Dividend Per Share = Total dividend paid
Number of shares
A thorough analyst does not merely observe consistent dividend payment over many
years and then determine the investment to be 'safe' and the company a 'Blue chip'. It is
essential to check if the dividends were paid from the current year's earnings or from
retained earnings from previous years.
To do that you can check the payout ratio or dividends/earnings which show what
percentage of earnings was paid out as a dividend. The reciprocal is earnings/dividends
which is the dividend cover ratio. If the dividend cover ratio is less than one then the
dividends must have been paid out of retained earnings.
Sometimes paying out all the earnings as dividends is not a good thing, for example, in
the case of a company being able to obtain an above average rate of return funding
expansion or acquisition instead of paying a dividend.
At other times, if the company has surplus cash it may pay out a special dividend or
announce a return of capital.
(j) Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield = Dividend Per Share x 100
Current Share Price
The dividend yield is the dividend expressed as a percentage of the share price. This is
the rate that can be used to compare the income generated from one investment to that
from other investments. As with EPS best to use estimated dividends as media yield
calculations are based upon historic dividend figures. High dividend yields are attractive
but they are a representation of past payouts. They are not a guarantee of future dividend
amounts. The dividend yield figure may also be affected by fluctuating share prices.
(k) Dividend Payout Ratio/Dividend Cover
The dividend payout ratio is calculated as:
Dividend Payout Ratio = Dividend per Share
Earning per Share
whereas dividend cover is the reverse:
Dividend Cover = Earnings per Share
Dividend per Share
Both provide the same information namely the proportion of profit after tax paid out by
way of dividends to ordinary shareholders. The ratio of profit paid out reflects the
company's dividend policy. Note that company policy varies with some preferring to pay
out a higher ratio of profits while others elect to pay out a lower proportion thereby
retaining more funds for growth (this ultimately should flow through to dividend yield in
future years).
170
(l) Net Assets per Share or Net Tangible Assets per Share (NTA)
Net Assets per Share = Net Worth – Fictitious Assets - Intangibles
Number of Ordinary
Shares
This is a measure of whether shares are undervalued or overvalued. A share price above
NTA suggests good use is being made of the assets and that the market is prepared to
pay a price premium. If price is below NTA it suggests management is not utilising
assets to their best advantage and the company may be vulnerable to takeover. NTA per
share is more relevant for companies valued partly for their net asset backing e.g. listed
real estate companies or investment funds.
(m)Market to Book Ratio or Price to Book Value or Price to Assets Ratio
Price to Book Value = Share Price
Book Value Per Share(BVPS)
BVPS = (Shareholders’ Equity – Intangibles)/Number of Shares
The ideal is a ratio of 1 or less as this means for every Rupee of share price you receive a
rupee of net asset value. If the ratio is more than 1, you will be paying a premium over
and above the value of the net assets.
(n) Price/Sales Ratio (PSR or P/S)
Price to Sales Ratio compares the market value of a company’s shares to its sales. It is
calculated as:
Price to Sales = Share Price
Sales
PSR reflects a company’s underlying financial strength so a company with a low PSR is
more attractive while one with a high PSR is less attractive. Investors should avoid
stocks with a PSR of 1.5 or more and should sell a stock whose PSR is between 3 to 6.
(o) Price Earnings Growth (PEG)
This ratio is widely used and is calculated as:
Price Earnings Growth = P/E Ratio
Growth Rate in %
So a P/E of 10 divided by a growth rate of 10% would have a PEG of 1 and a P/E of 20
divided by a growth rate of 20% would have a PEG of 1. But a P/E of 20 divided by a
growth rate of 10% would have a PEG of 2 and a P/E of 10 divided by a growth rate of
20% would have a PEG of 0.5. In general, the P/E should equal the long term growth
rate in %. So a PEG ratio of one is considered to represent fair value and a PEG ratio
greater than one indicates a more “expensive” stock. This ratio is a useful high level
check to see whether the P/E is justified. One should compare with the average market
171
figure at the time and the average for the industry. Small investors usually use a PEG
under .6 for small caps or use under .75 or .8 for mid/large caps as being good value.
Financial Ratios - Return on Equity and the Dupont System
A system of analysis has been developed that focuses the attention on all three critical
elements of the financial condition of a company: the operating management,
management of assets and the capital structure. This analysis technique is called the
"DuPont Formula". The DuPont Formula shows the interrelationship between key
financial ratios. It can be presented in several ways.
The first is:
Return on equity (ROE) = net income / total equity
If we multiply ROE by sales, we get:
Return on equity = (net income / sales) * (sales / total equity)
Said differently:
ROE = net profit margin * return on equity
172
Activity C :
1. How do ratio analysis effect the financial health of a company?
(b) Cash Flow Analysis
The cash flow statement shows how much cash comes in and goes out of the company
over the quarter or the year. It shows how much actual cash a company has generated.
The statement of cash flows is critical to understanding a company's fundamentals. It
shows how the company is able to pay for its operations and future growth. Indeed, one
of the most important features one should look for in a potential investment is the
company's ability to produce cash. Just because a company shows a profit on the income
statement doesn't mean it cannot get into trouble later because of insufficient cash flows.
A close examination of the cash flow statement can give investors a better sense of how
the company will fare. Companies produce and consume cash in different ways, so the
cash flow statement is divided into three sections: cash flows from operations, financing
and investing. Basically, the sections on operations and financing show how the
company gets its cash, while the investing section shows how the company spends its
cash.
Cash Flows from Operating Activities
This section shows how much cash comes from sales of the company's goods and
services, less the amount of cash needed to make and sell those goods and services.
Investors tend to prefer companies that produce a net positive cash flow from operating
activities. High growth companies, such as technology firms, tend to show negative cash
flow from operations in their formative years. At the same time, changes in cash flow
from operations typically offer a preview of changes in net future income. Normally it's
a good sign when it goes up. Watch out for a widening gap between a company's
reported earnings and its cash flow from operating activities. If net income is much
higher than cash flow, the company may be speeding or slowing its booking of income
or costs.
Cash Flows from Investing Activities
This section largely reflects the amount of cash the company has spent on capital
expenditures, such as new equipment or anything else that needed to keep the business
going. It also includes acquisitions of other businesses and monetary investments. You
want to see a company re-invest capital in its business by at least the rate of depreciation
expenses each year. If it doesn't re-invest, it might show artificially high cash inflows in
the current year which may not be sustainable.
173
Cash Flow From Financing Activities
This section describes the goings-on of cash associated with outside financing activities.
Typical sources of cash inflow would be cash raised by selling shares and debentures or
by bank borrowings. Likewise, paying back a bank loan would show up as a use of cash
flow, as would dividend payments and common stock repurchases.
Cash Flow Statement Considerations
Fundamental investors are attracted to companies that produce plenty of free cash flows
(FCF). Free cash flow signals a company's ability to pay debt, pay dividends, buy back
stock and facilitate the growth of business. Free cash flow, which is essentially the
excess cash produced by the company, can be returned to shareholders or invested in
new growth opportunities without hurting the existing operations. The most common
method of calculating free cash flow is:
Free cash Flow = Net Income + Dep. – Changes in WC – Capital Exp.
Ideally, investors would like to see that the company can pay for the investing figure out
of operations without having to rely on outside financing to do so. A company's ability
to pay for its own operations and growth signals to investors that it has very strong
fundamentals.
Activity D :
1. How does company analysis help investors in choosing securities?
( c) Common Size Analysis
Common Size Analysis is the analysis of financial statement items through comparison
among financial statement or market data. Common size analysis compares each item in
a financial statement with a benchmark item. Common size analysis is useful in
analyzing trends in profitability and trends in investments and financing activity.
Common size statement is constructed by restating each account in a statement as a
percentage of some benchmark:
For the income statement, the benchmark is sales; each item in the income statement
is restated as a percentage of sales.
For the balance sheet, the benchmark is total assets; each item in the balance sheet is
restated as a percentage of total assets.
Common size analysis is useful because it allows investors to spot trends that would not
be obvious using other means.
174
10.4 Summary
In the previous chapter we have discussed the importance of economy and industry
analysis and how it is performed. In this chapter , we have discussed in the company
analysis. Company analysis is a study of the variables that influences the future of a firm
both qualitatively and quantitatively. It is a method of assessing the competitive position
of a firm, its earning and profitability, the efficiency with which it operates, its financial
position its future with respect to the earning of its shareholders. The outcome of
company analysis is a value of the stock of the company called its ‘intrinsic value’. To a
fundamental investor, the market price of a stock tends to revert towards its intrinsic
value. If the intrinsic value of a stock is above the current market price, the investor
would purchase the stock because he believes that the stock price would rise and move
towards its intrinsic value. If the intrinsic value of a stock is below the market price, the
investor would sell the stock because he believes that the stock price is going to fall and
come closer to its intrinsic value. While conducting the company analysis the investor
should analyse carefully the company’s financial statements such as profit and loss
account, balance sheet statement of changes in financial / cash position. The tools of
conducting company analysis can be broadly divided into two : financial and non
financial factors.
175
Unit –11 : Technical Analysis
Structure of Unit
11.0 Objectives
11.1 Introduction
11.2 What is Technical Analysis ?
11.3 Assumptions of Technical Analysis
11.4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Distinction
11.5 Tools of Technical Analysis
11.6 Criticisms of Technical Analysis
11.7 Summary
11.8 Self Assessment Questions
11.9 Reference Books
11.0 Objectives
After reading this unit you should be able to understand :
Meaning of Technical Analysis and Assumptions
Destination between Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Tools and Techniques of Technical Analysis
Charting as a Technical Tool
Types of charts
Important Chart Patterns
Criticisms of Technical Analysis
11.1 Introduction
The share price movement is analyzed broadly with two approaches namely,
fundamental approach and the technical approach. Fundamental approach analyses the
share price on the basis of economic, industry and company statistics. If the price of the
share is lower than its intrinsic value, investor buys it. But, if he finds the price of the
share higher than the intrinsic value he sells and gets profit. The technical analyst mainly
studies the stock price movement of the security market. If there is an up trend in the
price movement investor may purchase the script. With the onset of fall in price he may
sell it and move from the script. Basically, technical analysts and the fundamental
analysts aim at good return on investment.
176
11.2 What is Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics
generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts make
use of historical price and volume data to prepare charts, graphs and other tools in order
to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.
It is a school of thought that the share price depends purely on the supply demand of the
share and hence looking at the previous trend buy or sale, it is possible to predict the
future price of a script. According to them, price are determined in the following
manner:–
(a) Demand & supply of securities are considered to be the main essence of the changes
in the securities price.
(b) Technical analysis is a method of presenting financial data of the past behavior and
to find out the history of price movements and depict these on a chart.
(c) The chart have a method of prediction of significant price movements, depicts
meaningful patterns and the practical applications of these patterns help in
determining future prices.
(d) Typical charts are made for making prediction about a single security and Charts are
also used to find out the total broad spectrum of the market.
177
Activity A :
1. What is Technical Analysis? Explain its assumptions.
Table : 11.1
Distinction between Technical & Fund Analysis
178
The use of technical ‘indicators’ to measure the direction of overall market should
precede any technical analysis of individual stock, because of systematic influence of the
general market on stock prices. In addition, some technicians feel that forecasting
aggregates are more reliable, since individual errors can be filtered out. Indicators of
Technical analysis can be tabulated as:
Table : 11.2
Indicators of Technical Analysis
(1) Dow Theory (1) Short Selling (1) Mutual fund activity
(2) Market Breadth (2) Long Positions (2) Fll's & FI's trends
(3) Advance-Decline Ratio (3) Future & Options trading
Data
(4) New Highs & Lows
(5) Active Stock Lists
(6) Confidence Indicator
179
Trend
One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is that of trend. The meaning in
finance isn't all that different from the general definition of the term - a trend is really
nothing more than the general direction in which a security or market is headed. In other
words, defining a trend goes well beyond the obvious. In any given chart, you will
probably notice that prices do not tend to move in a straight line in any direction, but
rather in a series of highs and lows. In technical analysis, it is the movement of the highs
and lows that constitutes a trend. For example, an uptrend is classified as a series of
higher highs and higher lows, while a downtrend is one of lower lows and lower highs.
Types of Trend : There are three types of trend:
1) Positive or advancing trend.
2) Negative or declining trend.
3) Neutral or sideways trading range.
1) Positive Trend (Characterized by higher highs and higher lows) : In a positive trend
each up move extends to new price highs while the sell-offs in between do not decline as
far as the price levels seen on previous sell-offs. Drawing a line through the lows yields
the positive trend line. It is also known as Uptrend.
2) Negative Trend (Characterized by lower highs and lower lows) : In a negative trend
each down move extends to new price lows while rallies in between do not advance as
far as the price levels seen on previous rallies. Drawing a line through the highs yields
the negative trend line. It is also known as Downtrend.
180
Fig.11.2 Negative Trend
3) Neutral Trend (Characterized by a sideways trading range):
In a neutral trend the price pattern typically oscillates between an upper limit and a lower
limit. Drawing lines through these upper limits and lower limits identifies the trading
range. It is also known as Sideways or Horizontal trend.
181
(A) The Market has Three Movements:
The Dow Theory classifies the movements in stock prices into:
a) Primary Movements
In Dow theory, the primary trend is the major trend of the market, which makes it the
most important one to determine. Dow determined that a primary trend will generally
last between one and three years but could vary in some instances, represent the major
market trends. The primary trends are the long range cycle that carries the entire market
up (bull market) or down(bear market).
b) Secondary Movements
In Dow theory, a primary trend is the main direction in which the market is moving.
Conversely, a secondary trend moves in the opposite direction of the primary trend, or as
a correction to the primary trend. For example, an upward primary trend will be
composed of secondary downward trends. This is the movement from a consecutively
higher high to a consecutively lower high. In a primary downward trend the secondary
trend will be an upward move, or a rally. This is the movement from a consecutively
lower low to a consecutively higher low. Thus, the secondary trend acts as a restraining
force on the primary trend.
182
(B) The Average Discount everything
The stock prices reflect all possible information, private and public. Any surprise news
will be reflected in the stock price, commodity price, and stock index very quickly. The
share prices that are determined in the market evolve out of a discounting process that
takes all known and predictable factors into account.
(C) Price Action Determines the Trend
In a bull market the peak of successive rallies should increase and also the trough of the
secondary movements should increase too. It means we will see higher highs and higher
lows in a bull market. The reverse is correct in a bear market; we should see lower lows
and lower highs in a bear market.
(D) Line Indicate Movements
Sometimes the secondary movement is horizontal, and this is called line. It should last
for few weeks. In a bull market, line formation implies smart money is accumulating and
in a bear market, line indicates distribution from strong hand to week hand.
(E) Price/Volume Relationship Provide Background
According to Dow theory, the main signals for buying and selling are based on the price
movements of the indexes. Volume is also used as a secondary indicator to help confirm
what the price movement is suggesting. From this tenet it follows that volume should
increase when the price moves in the direction of the trend and decrease when the price
moves in the opposite direction of the trend.
Generally volume should go with the trend and we have the following relationship
between volume and price:
Table : 11.3
Relationship between Volume and Price
183
(F) The Averages Must Confirm
The market is truly a barometer of future business conditions. The industry averages and
market averages should by and large move together.
Activity B :
1. Technical analysis is based on Dow Jones Theory. Elucidate?
11.5.1 Price vs. Volume Change
Technical anlaysis believe that price and volume are closely related. There are four
rules:-
(a) A rising index with an increasing volume will indicate a bullish market and a ‘buy’
signal as it reflects unsatisfied demand in the market.
(b) A falling index with decreasing volume shows a bullish signal.
(c) When volume tends to increase during index declines, it is a bearish signal.
(d) When volume tends to decrease as the index rises, it is a bearish signal.
11.5.2 Advance-Decline Line
The rules are as follows :-
(a) A rising NSE index (NIFTY) with a falling advance-decline line indicates that in
spite of a rise in about 50 blue chips in the NSE index, many small stocks are
beginning to turn down. This is an indication of a weakening market and gives a
bearish signal.
(b) A fall of NSE index with a rising advance decline line gives a bullish signal.
(c) Technical analysts also believe that when the cumulative number of advance exceeds
declines by 2000 over a ten day period, the market may be “overbought” & vice
versa.
11.5.3 New High & New low indicator
A rising market should normally view an expanding number of stocks hitting new high
prices & decreasing new low prices Conversely, a declining market is usually
accompanied by an increasing number of new lows and decreasing number of new
highs.
11.5.4 Charting
The basic tool in technical analysis is movement in prices, measured by charts. There are
four main types of charts that are used by investors and traders depending on the
information that they are seeking and their individual skill levels. The chart types are:
the line chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chart and the point and figure chart.
184
a) Line Chart : The most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents
only the closing prices over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting the
closing prices over the time frame. The charts are easily drawn and widely used in
technical analysis.
185
Fig.11.6 Bar Chart
Generally, if the left dash (open) is lower than the right dash (close) then the bar will be
shaded black, representing an up period for the stock, which means it has gained value.
A bar that is colored red signals that the stock has gone down in value over that period.
When this is the case, the dash on the right (close) is lower than the dash on the left
(open).
c) Candlestick Charts : The candlestick chart is similar to a bar chart, but it differs in
the way that it is visually constructed. Similar to the bar chart, the candlestick also has a
thin vertical line showing the period's trading range. The difference comes in the
formation of a wide bar on the vertical line, which illustrates the difference between the
open and close. And, like bar charts, candlesticks also rely heavily on the use of colors to
explain what has happened during the trading period. A major problem with the
candlestick color configuration, there are two color constructs for days up and one for
days that the price falls.
186
Fig.11.7 Candelstick Chart
When the price of the stock is up and closes above the opening trade, the candlestick will
usually be white or clear. If the stock has traded down for the period, then the
candlestick will usually be red or black. If the stock's price has closed above the previous
day’s close but below the day's open, the candlestick will be black or filled with the
color that is used to indicate an up day.
d) Point and Figure Chart : Though the point and figure chart (PFC) is not as
commonly used as the other two charts. PFC's does not include volume or time.
Construction of PFC involves the use of two symbols ‘X’ and ‘O’ while ‘X’ indicated
increase in prices, ‘O’ indicates downward movement.PFC’s are plotted on cross-
section paper that has arithmetically ruled squares. Suppose that a 1-point PFC is to be
plotted. The graph may begin by recording the price at a chosen level. Across the price
levels marked on the Y-axis, either 'X' or 'O' is marked for the beginning price.
187
Subsequent change in price level is noted. If the price increases, for every increase equal
to, or over Rs.1, an ‘X’ is marked on the same column if the chart began with an ‘X’
mark for the beginning price level. A decrease in price equal to or above Rs. 1 is treated
as a change in direction. The chartist shifts to the next column and marks a series of ‘0’s
indicate the magnitude of fail m prices. No marking is made if prices remain at the same
level or it changes are less than Rs.1. Prices are marked in the same column irrespective
of the time period, as long as the direction of change remains unaltered.
Activity C :
1. Write a note on charting as a technical tool. Explain in brief different types of charts.
188
Fig.11.9 Support and Resistance Level Chart
If the scrip price reverses the support level and moves downward, it means that the
selling pressure has overcome the potential buying pressure, signaling the possibility of a
further fall in the value of the scrip. It indicates the violation of the support level and
bearish Market.
If the scrip penetrates the previous top and moves above, it is the violation of resistance
level. At this point, buying pressure would be more than the selling pressure. If the scrip
was to move above the double top or triple top formation, it indicates bullish market.
(b) Head & Shoulders: This is the most important pattern to indicate a reversal of a
price trend. As seen, head & shoulders has four basic elements:-
(i) A strong rally (i.e. upward advance) on which trading volume becomes very heavy
followed by a minor reaction (i.e. decline) on which volume runs considerably less.
Thus left shoulder is formed.
(ii) The other rally follows which takes the peak at a higher level than the left shoulder
once again due to reaction, prices fall below the top level of the left shoulder as
trading activity declines. The creates the lead.
(iii)Subsequently, a moderate rally in the volume of shares traded lifts the price
somewhat but fails to push it as high as the top of the head before once again decline
sets in. Thus the right shoulder is formed.
189
(iv) Finally, the price movement falls below the neckline (Which is the line joining the
two points where the head & shoulder meet) which indicates a reversal. This is called
confirmation or breakout. The drop in price is expected to be equal to the distance
between the top of the head & the neckline. Thus a breakout indicates emergence of
a bearish market.
190
Fig.11.11 Double Top and Bottom Chart
(b) Triple Tops and Bottoms: Triple tops and triple bottoms are another type of
reversal chart pattern in chart analysis. These are not as prevalent in charts as head and
shoulders and double tops and bottoms, but they act in a similar fashion. These two chart
patterns are formed when the price movement tests a level of support or resistance three
times and is unable to break through; this signals a reversal of the prior trend. Confusion
can form with triple tops and bottoms during the formation of the pattern because they
can look similar to other chart patterns. After the first two support/resistance tests are
formed in the price movement, the pattern will look like a double top or bottom, which
could lead a chartist to enter a reversal position too soon.
191
succeeding one peaks at a lower level than the preceding peaks and the bottoms of the
intervening relations is progressively higher.
192
for a downside breakout. The validity of the breakout is measured by drawing a line
parallel to the sloping side of triangle.
(g) Rectangles: A rectangle is an important consolidation pattern, which can be formed
either during an uptrend• or in the course of a downtrend in prices. A series of minor
raffles and reactions, which have almost identical peaks and troughs signal the formation
of a rectangle. A rectangle indicates equal pressure being exercised by
193
This pattern is then completed upon another sharp price movement in the same direction
as the move that started the trend. A series of flags in a rising market shows that the
market may not come down sharply & vice-versa. There is little difference between a
pennant and a flag. The main difference between these price movements can be seen in
the middle section of the chart pattern. In a pennant, the middle section is characterized
by converging trend lines, much like what is seen in a symmetrical triangle. The middle
section on the flag pattern, on the other hand, shows a channel pattern, with no
convergence between the trend lines. In both cases, the trend is expected to continue
when the price moves above the upper trend line.
(i) Saucers and Rounding Tops: A saucer generally occurs at market bottoms when
investor interest in the share is at its lowest, ebb. The lows reached at the end of the
market are all formed by reactions that are small, and rallies are not marked enough due
to lack of enthusiasm.
194
Fig.11.18 Gaps chart
i) Breakaway Gaps
Breakaway gaps typically come about at the beginning of the trend. They are usually
seen following intermediate- to longer-term reversal patterns and serve to signal a rush
to buy or sell a security. The types of gaps that occasionally are not filled are most often
breakaway gaps.
ii) Runaway or Continuation Gaps
Runaway gaps usually show up after the trend has been established. They typically come
about in rapid advancing (or declining) markets where investor optimism (or pessimism)
is running high. Also known as measuring gaps, they usually mark the midpoint
between the previous breakout and the ultimate target of the move. They are typically
filled in a matter of a few days, and those that aren't usually are filled sometime later
during larger corrective phases. Most often, there is only one runaway gap, and it usually
denotes the prevailing trend’s midpoint. There are times, though, that more than one
runaway gap develops. They certainly serve to bolster the short-term strength of the
move, but the more runaway gaps there are, the more suspect the duration of the move
becomes.
iii) Exhaustion Gaps
When exhaustion gaps develop, they tend to signal the ending phase of the prevailing
trend. The most reliable way of distinguishing an exhaustion gap from just another
runaway gap is by its volume. The volume associated with exhaustion gaps is usually
significantly larger than that related to previous gaps. Exhaustion gaps do not, of
195
themselves, indicate a trend reversal. They only serve as a warning that a significant
trend change might be developing.
(k) Island Reversals
Islands are compact trading ranges that usually follow a fast rally or decline. They are
separated from the previous move by an exhaustion gap, and from the move in the
opposite direction which follows by a breakaway gap. The resulting formation is an
island of prices, detached from the rest of the price pattern by a gap on either end.
Sometimes the island contains only one day and is called a one-day reversal. The two
gaps often occur at approximately the same price level. Island reversals do not usually
carry long-term implications, but they can be very powerful short and intermediate term
trading signals. An island will usually send prices back for a complete retracement of the
move that preceded it.
(l) Relative Strength:
The empirical evidence Shows that certain stocks perform better than other stocks in a
given market environment and that this behavior will remain relatively constant over
time. This approach is based on a belief that a share or sector which is outperforming the
market will probably continue to do so. It embodies the ‘momentum idea’ or band
wagon effect’. It may also reflect the-gradual dissemination of good or bad news to a
progressively wider investing public. The technical analyst using the relative strength
approach have observed that those firms and industries displaying greatest relative
strength in good markets (bull) also show the greatest weakness in bad markets (bear).
These ‘relatively strong’ firms will have high betas.
11.5.6 Moving Averages (MA)
The moving average is one of the most popular indicators and is used by technical
analysts for a variety of tasks:
• to identify areas of short term support/resistance
• to determine the current trend
• as a component in many other indicators such as the MACD, or Bollinger bands.
The main advantages of moving averages is firstly that they smooth the data and thus
provide a clearer visual picture of the current trend and secondly, that moving average
signals can give a precise answer as to what the trend is. The main disadvantage is that
they are lagging rather than leading indicators.
There are two main forms of moving average:
The simple moving average (as the name suggests) calculates the average price over a
specified moving time period. For example, a 20 day simple moving average will
196
calculate the average mean price from the last twenty days closing prices and so on.
Generally 50 day and 200 day SMA is used in predicting future prices.
The exponential moving average ("ema") also averages the last x days closes but
assigns a greater weight to the more recent prices making it more sensitive to current
price action and thus reducing the lag effect.
11.5.7 Spreads
Large spreads between yields indicate low confidence and are bearish; the market
appears to require a large compensation for business, financial and inflation risks. Small
spreads indicate high confidence and are bullish In short, the larger the spreads, the
lower the ratio and the less the confidence. The smaller the spreads, the greater the ratio,
indicating greater confidence.
11.5.8 Market Breadth Index
Market Breadth is a comparison of advancing stocks versus declining stocks. Positive
breadth indicates that more stocks are advancing than declining. Negative breadth
indicates that more stocks are declining than advancing. Breadth can also be thought of
as a measure of momentum for groups of stocks. The figure of each week is added to
previous week’s figure. These data are then plotted to establish the pattern of movement
of advance and declines. The purpose of the market breadth index is to indicate whether
a confirmation of some index has occurred. If both the stock index and the market
breadth index increase, the market is bullish; when the stock index increase but the
breadth index does not, the market is bearish.
Activity D :
1. What do you mean by exponential moving average.
Activity E :
1. Explain Head and Shoulder and triangle chart patterns.
197
(iii)Unreliable changes: Changes in market behaviour observed and studied by
technical analyst may not always be reliable owing to ignorance or intelligence or
manipulative tendencies of some participants.
A false piece of information or wrong judgment may result in trade at a lower than
market price. If the technicians fail to wait for confirmation, they incur losses.
The market prices of shares are sometimes the results of certain unhealthy practices like
cornering and rigging of certain shares by some-stock market operators.
(iv) Changes are not predictable:-Technicians expect changes to take place in a known
and gradual fashion.
(a) History does not repeat itself: One of the major limitations of technical analysis is
that the entire data is based on the past. It is presumed that future resembles the past.
There is no guarantee that history repeats itself. Systems become more sophisticated
and people become more mature, effecting a different of behaviour. Further,
unexpected events like a change of the government, or a violent agitation or a natural
calamity may produce a different pattern of behaviour. This contingency is not taken
into account in making projections.
(b) No gradual shifts: It is presumed that shifts in supply and demand occur gradually
rather than instantaneously. Since these shifts are expected to continue as the price
gradually reacts to new or other factors the price change pattern is extrapolated to.
predict further price changes. However, economists asserted that this is a wrong
proposition.
(v) Tools are not precise: The greatest limitation of technical analysis is perhaps the
mechanical precision it gives to the entire exercise of investment in equity shares.
However, the tools are subject to errors, breakdown and misinterpretation.
(vi) False signals can occur: Technical analysis is a signaling device. Like a
thermometer, it may give a false indication when there is no alarm, but when there is
cause for alarm, the signal will almost invariably be flashed.
The hub of the problem as it applies to indicators is that while they may be crystal clear
in definition and theory, they often break down in practice. Each one of them has at
some particular time been ineffective, out-weighed by a number of other indicators.
Investing wisely is an important part of financial security. One tries to invest money as
early as possible so that the money will grow accordingly in his/her lifetime. Choosing a
wise investing option is very crucial because a balance is required to be maintained
between the risks and returns involved.
For example, many people invest in private firms which offer very high interest rate but
they may vanish after some time losing all the invested money.
198
11.7 Summary
This chapter analyses the behavior of stock prices through the technical analysts view
point. Technical analysis is the study of financial market action. The technical analysis
is done from four important aspects namely, price, time, volume and market breadth.
The Dow theory is one of the oldest methods of identifying trends. The technician looks
at price changes that occur on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis or over any other
constant time period displayed in graphic form, called charts. The analyst uses Line
chart, bar chart, candlestick chart and point and Figure chart. A chartist analyzes price
charts only, while the technical analyst studies technical indicators derived from price
changes in addition to the price charts. Technical analysts examine the price action of the
financial markets instead of the fundamental factors that affect market prices. They have
large number of patterns which predict the upward and downward movement in the
market. The technical analyst believes that all the relevant market information is
reflected or discounted in the price with the exception of shocking news such as natural
disasters or acts of God. These factors, however, are discounted very quickly. Watching
financial markets, it becomes obvious that there are trends, momentum and patterns that
repeat over time, not exactly the same way but similar.
199
Unit – 12 Portfolio Analysis
Structure of Units
12.0 Objectives
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Investment Strategy
12.3 Concept of Risk and Diversification
12.4 Inputs of Portfolio Analysis
12.5 Managing Portfolio Risk
12.6 SEBI Guidelines for Portfolio Managers
12.7 Summary
12.8 Self Assessment Questions
12.9 Reference Books
12.0 Objectives
After completing this unit, you would be able to:
Understand the concept of portfolio.
Understand the meaning of portfolio management.
Need and objectives of portfolio management.
Understand the investment strategy.
Learn about the concept of risk.
Understand the risk and its various types in portfolio management.
You will be able to explain the meaning of ‘ Risk Diversification’.
12.1 Introduction
12.1.1 What is Portfolio?
Portfolio means a collection of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, debt instruments,
mutual fund and cash equivalents etc. A portfolio is planned to stabilize the risk of non-
performance of various investment alternatives as they are held directly by investors and
managed by financial professionals.
Risk preference is tendency to choose a risky or less risky option. Utility function or
indifference curves are used to represent someone’s preferences. A risk averse decision
maker always turns down fair gambles and has a concave utility function. A risk neutral
decision maker is always indifferent to accepting fair gambles and has a linear utility
function. A risk tolerant/risk seeking decision maker always accepts fair gambles and
has a convex utility function.
200
Table 12.1
Definition
201
Thus an investor will take on increased risk only if he is compensated by higher
expected returns. Conversely, an investor who wants higher returns must accept more
risk. The exact tradeoff between risk and reward differs across investors and is based on
individual risk aversion characteristics. The implication of risk aversion is that a rational
investor will not invest in a portfolio if a second portfolio exists which has a more
favorable risk return profile i.e. if for that level of risk an alternative portfolio exists
which has better expected returns.
The modern portfolio theory further assumes that only the expected return and the
volatility of return matter to the investor. The investor is indifferent to other
characteristics of the distribution of returns, such as its skewness. Thus, portfolio
management deals with finding an efficient portfolio that maximizes the rate of return
for a given level of risk. The return is the weighted return of the securities held in the
portfolio. The risk of the portfolio is represented by the standard deviation of return of
the portfolio.
12.1.3 Need for Portfolio Management
a) Portfolio management presents the best investment plan to the individuals as per
their income, budget, age and ability to undertake risks.
b) Portfolio management minimizes the risks involved in investing and also increases
the chance of making profits.
c) Portfolio managers understand the client’s financial needs and suggest the best and
unique investment policy for them with minimum risks involved.
d) Portfolio management enables the portfolio managers to provide customized
investment solutions to clients as per their needs and requirements.
12.1.4 Objectives of Portfolio Management
a) Security of principle investment: Investment safety or minimization of risks is one
of the most important objectives of portfolio management. Portfolio management not
only involves keeping the investment intact but also contributes towards the growth of
its purchasing power over the period. The motive of a financial portfolio management is
to ensure that the investment is absolutely safe. Other factors such as income, growth,
etc., are considered only after the safety of investment is ensured.
b) Consistency of Returns: Portfolio management also ensures to provide the stability
of returns by reinvesting the earned returns in profitable and good portfolios. The
portfolio helps to yield steady returns. The returns should compensate the opportunity
cost of the funds invested.
c) Capital Growth: Portfolio management guarantees the growth of capital by
reinvesting in growth securities or by the purchase of the growth securities. A portfolio
shall appreciate in value, in order to safeguard the investor from any erosion in
202
purchasing power due to inflation and other economic factors. A portfolio must consist
of those investments, which tend to appreciate in real value after adjusting for inflation.
d) Marketability: Portfolio management ensures the flexibility to the investment
portfolio. A portfolio consists of such investment, which can be marketed and traded.
Suppose, if your portfolio contains too many unlisted or inactive shares, then there
would be problems to do trading like switching from one investment to another. It is
always recommended to invest only in those shares and securities which are listed on
major stock exchanges, and also, which are actively traded.
e) Liquidity: Portfolio management is planned in such a way that it facilitates to take
maximum advantage of various good opportunities upcoming in the market. The
portfolio should always ensure that there are enough funds available at short notice to
take care of the investor’s liquidity requirements.
f) Diversification of Portfolio: Portfolio is purposely designed to reduce the risk of
loss of capital and/or income by investing in different types of securities available in a
wide range of industries.
g) Favorable Tax Status: Portfolio management is planned in such a way to increase
the effective yield an investor gets from his surplus invested funds. By minimizing the
tax burden, yield can be effectively improved. A good portfolio should give a favorable
tax shelter to the investors. The portfolio should be evaluated after considering income
tax, capital gains tax, and other taxes.
12.1.5 Scope of Portfolio Management
Portfolio Management is a continuous process. It is a dynamic activity. The following
are the basic operations of a portfolio:
a) Identification of investor’s objective, constraints and preferences.
b) Monitoring the performance of portfolio by incorporating the latest market
conditions.
c) Making an evaluation of portfolio income (comparison with targets and
achievement)
d) Making revision in the portfolio.
e) Implementation of the strategies in tune with investment objectives.
In India, Portfolio Management is still in its infancy. Barring a few Indian banks, and
foreign banks and UTI, no other agency had professional Portfolio management until
1987. After the success of Mutual Funds in Portfolio Management, a number of brokers
and Investment Consultants some of whom are also professionally qualified have
become Portfolio Managers. They have managed the funds of clients on both
discretionary and nondiscretionary basis. It was found that many of them, including
Mutual Funds, have guaranteed a minimum return or capital appreciation and adopted all
203
kinds of incentives which are now prohibited by SEBI. They resorted to speculative over
trading and insider trading, discounts, etc., to achieve their targeted returns to the clients,
which are also prohibited by SEBI.
The SEBI has imposed strict rules for portfolio managers, which include their
registration, a code of conduct and minimum infrastructure, experience and expertise etc.
It is no longer possible for any unemployed youth, or retired person or self-styled
consultant to engage in Portfolio management without the SEBI’s license. The
guidelines of SEBI are in the direction of making Portfolio Management a responsible
professional service to be rendered by experts in the field.
Basically Portfolio Management involves
a) A proper investment decision-making of what to buy and sell
b) Proper money management in terms of investment in a basket of assets so as to
satisfy the asset preferences of investors.
c) Reduce the risk and increase returns.
204
Savings instruments, Certificates, etc., they have also become less attractive to small and
medium investors. The only investments, satisfying all their objectives are capital market
instruments. These objectives are higher income, capital appreciation, safety,
marketability, liquidity and hedge against inflation. All these objectives can be fulfilled
by planned investment in capital markets which are professionally managed and
monitored. Portfolio management is an answer to all such requirements.
205
dollars, even if the share value appreciates, you may lose money if the Canadian dollar
depreciates in relation to the American dollar.
f) Interest Rate Risk - Interest rate risk is the risk that an investment's value will change as a
result of a change in interest rates. This risk affects the value of bonds more directly than stocks.
g) Political Risk - Political risk represents the financial risk that a country's government will
suddenly change its policies. This is a major reason why developing countries lack foreign
investment.
h) Market Risk - This is the most familiar of all risks. Also referred to as volatility, market risk
is the day-to-day fluctuation in a stock's price. Market risk applies mainly to stocks and options.
As a whole, stocks tend to perform well during a bull market and poorly during a bear market -
volatility is not so much a cause but an effect of certain market forces. Volatility is a measure of
risk because it refers to the behavior, or "temperament", of your investment rather than the
reason for this behavior. Because market movement is the reason why people can make money
from stocks, volatility is essential for returns, and the more unstable the investment the more
chance there is that it will experience a dramatic change in either direction.
Investors are risk averse; i.e., given the same expected return, they will choose the
investment for which that return is more certain. Therefore, investors demand a higher
expected return for riskier assets. Note that a higher expected return does not guarantee a
higher realized return. Because by definition returns on risky assets are uncertain, an
investment may not earn its expected return.
Within a multi-period framework, one may even apply a discounting model to estimate
returns. What an investment analyst always wishes to know is the forecasts of returns.
206
Any kind of variability in the aforesaid return is the risk associated with the individual
asset. The measure of this variability is the standard deviation. Hence standard deviation
is the measure of variability of returns or in other words it is the measure of risk for an
individual asset.
Risk and Beta
Risk is of two types- systematic market related risk and unsystematic risk or company
specific risk. The former cannot be eliminated but managed with the help of Beta (β),
which is
Explained as follows:
%
β= %
If β = 1, the risk, of the company is the same as that of the market and if β > 1, the
company’s risk is more than the market risk. If β < 1, the reverse is the position.
12.4.2 Expected return and risk of a Portfolio.
The return on a portfolio of assets is simply a weighted average of the return on the
individual assets. The weight applied to each return is the fraction of the portfolio
invested in that asset. Thus
p= XiRi
Where,
Rp is the expected return of the portfolio,
Xi is the proportion of the portfolio’s initial fund invested in asset i,
Ri is the expected return of asset i; and
n is the number of assets in the portfolio.
Activity A:
Oliver’s portfolio holds security A, which returned 12.0% and security B, which
returned 15.0%. At the beginning of the year 70% was invested in security A and the
remaining 30% was invested in security B. Calculate the return of Oliver’s portfolio over
the year.
Rp = (.6x12%)+(.3x15%) = 12.9%
207
Activity B:
Oliver’s portfolio holds security A, which returned 12.0%, security B, which returned
15.0% and security C, which returned –5.0%. At the beginning of the year 45% was
invested in security A, 25.0% in security B and the remaining 30% was invested in
security C. Calculate the return of Oliver’s portfolio over the year.
Rp = (.45x12%)+(.25x15%)+(.3x(-5%)) = 7.65%
12.4.3 Calculating Portfolio risk – Measurement of Co variance, Variance,
Standard Deviation and Correlation Coefficient
While there may be different definitions of risk, one widely-used measure is called
variance. Variance measures the variability of realized returns around an average level.
The larger the variance, higher is the risk in the portfolio.
Variance is dependent on the way in which individual securities interact with each other.
This interaction is known as covariance. Covariance essentially tells us whether or not
two securities returns are correlated. Covariance measures by themselves do not provide
an indication of the degree of correlation between two securities. As such, covariance is
standardized by dividing covariance by the product of the standard deviation of two
individual securities. This standardized measure is called the correlation coefficient.
Here is the Variance of portfolio and is the covariance of returns between asset i
and asset.
The correlation coefficient represented by ‘r’ is calculated as below
(, )
=
The correlation coefficient simply rescales the covariance to facilitate comparison with
corresponding values for other pairs of random variables.
Correlation is the covariance of security A and B divided by the product of the standard
deviation of these two securities. It is a pure measure of the co-movement between the
two securities and is bounded by –1 and +1.
a) A correlation of +1 means that the returns of the two securities always move in the
same direction; they are perfectly positively correlated.
208
b) A correlation of zero means the two securities are uncorrelated and have no
relationship to each other.
c) A correlation of –1 means the returns always move in the opposite direction and are
negatively correlated.
Portfolio risk can be effectively diversified (reduced) by combining securities with
returns that do not move in tandem with each other.
209
should vary by industry, minimizing unsystematic risk to small groups of
companies.
b) Another question people always ask is how many stocks they should buy to reduce
the risk of their portfolio. The portfolio theory tells us that after 10-12 diversified
stocks, you are very close to optimal diversification. This doesn't mean buying 12
internet or tech stocks will give you optimal diversification. Instead, you need to buy
stocks of different sizes from various industries.
12.5.2 Asset Allocation
After diversification, the next step in managing portfolio risk is asset allocation.
Asset allocation is the process of selecting an appropriate mixture of risk-free assets and
risky assets. Optimally, the risky portion of the portfolio includes all risky assets; e.g.,
stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. A 30-day T-Bill is most commonly used to represent the
risk-free asset.
Asset allocation is one of the most important decisions that investors can make. In other
words, the importance of an investor's selection of individual securities is insignificant
compared to the way the investor allocates their assets to stocks, bonds, and cash
equivalents.
210
The SEBI has given permission to Merchant Bankers to do Portfolio Management. As
per the guidelines of September, 1991 a separate category of Portfolio Managers is also
licensed by SEBI for which guidelines were given in January 1993. A code of conduct
was also laid down for this category, as is the case with all categories of capital market
players and intermediates.
12.6.1 Portfolio Management Service
As per the SEBI norms, it refers to professional services rendered for management of
Portfolio of others, namely, clients or customers with the help of experts in Investment
Advisory Services. Investment management on the other hand involves continuing
relationship with client to manage investments with or without discretion for the client as
per his requirements.
12.6.2 Who can be a Portfolio Manager?
Only those who are registered and pay the required license fee are eligible to operate as
Portfolio Managers. An applicant for this purpose should have necessary infrastructure
with minimum two professionally qualified persons with experience in this business and
a minimum net worth of Rs. 50 lakhs. The Certificate once granted is valid for three
years. Fees payable for registration are Rs. 2.5 lakhs every year for two years and Rs. 1
lakh for the third year. From the fourth year onwards, renewal fees per annum are Rs.
75,000. These are subject to changes by the SEBI.
The SEBI has imposed a number of obligations and a code of conduct on them. The
Portfolio Manager should have a high standard of integrity, honesty and should not have
been convicted of any economic offence. He should not resort to rigging up of prices,
insider trading or creating false markets etc. Their books of accounts are subject to
inspection and audit by SEBI. The observance of the code of conduct and guidelines
given by the SEBI are subject to inspection and penalties for violation are imposed. The
Manager has to submit periodical returns and documents as may be required by the SEBI
from time-to-time.
12.7 Summary
Portfolio analysis is a process used to assess the suitability of a portfolio of securities
relative to its expected investment return and its correlation to the risk tolerance of an
investor seeping the optimal tradeoff between risk and return. An analysis conducted at
regular intervals enables the investor to make the necessary adjustments in the
portfolio’s allocation of afferent investment classes according to changing market
conditions or changes in his own circumstances.
211
12.8 Self Assessment Questions
212
Unit 13: Portfolio Selection
Structure of Units
13.0 Objectives
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Selecting a ‘Best’ Portfolio
13.3 Summary
13.4 Self Assessment Questions
13.5 Reference Books
13.0 Objectives
13.1 Introduction
This Chapter will provide an overview that: how should an investor go about selecting
the one best portfolio to meet his needs? Or, more explicitly, how should an investor go
about selecting securities to purchase and deciding how much amount to invest in each?
This unit will first provide a logical approach to delineating efficient set, and present
another model, such as simple Sharpe’s optimization model, capital asset pricing model,
arbitrage pricing theory, that simplifies the portfolio selection process to a great extent.
213
The author of the modern portfolio theory is Harry Markowitz who introduced the
analysis of the portfolios of investments in his article “Portfolio Selection” published in
the Journal of Finance in 1952. The new approach presented in this article included
portfolio formation by considering the expected rate of return and risk of individual
stocks and, crucially, their interrelationship as measured by correlation. Prior to this
investors would examine investments individually, build up portfolios of attractive
stocks, and not consider how they related to each other. Markowitz showed how it might
be possible to better of these simplistic portfolios by taking into account the correlation
between the returns on these stocks. The diversification plays a very important role in
the modern portfolio theory. Markowitz approach is viewed as a single period approach:
at the beginning of the period the investor must make a decision in what particular
securities to invest and hold these securities until the end of the period. Because a
portfolio is a collection of securities, this decision is equivalent to selecting an optimal
portfolio from a set of possible portfolios. Essentiality of the Markowitz portfolio
theory (MTP) is the problem of optimal portfolio selection.
The method used in selecting the most desirable portfolio involves the use
of indifference curves. These curves represent an investor's preferences for risk and
return. It can be drawn on a two-dimensional graph, where the horizontal axis usually
indicates risk as measured by variance or standard deviation and the vertical axis
indicates reward as measured by expected return. Using variance as relevant risk
measure comes from Markowitz's paper and is always used in practice, although other
possibilities have been considered. This definition gives us the following properties,
assuming we have a 'rational investor':
All portfolios that lie on the same indifference curve are equally desirable to the investor
(even though they have different expected returns and variance.) An obvious implication
is that indifference curves do not intersect. An investor will find any portfolio that is
lying on an indifference curve that is "further northwest" to be more desirable than any
portfolio lying on an indifference curve that is "not as far northwest."
But how indifference curves shaped? Generally it is assumed that investors are risk
averse, which means that the investor will choose the portfolio with the smaller variance
given the same return. Risk averse investors will not want to take fair gambles (where
the expected payoff is zero). These two assumptions of risk aversion cause indifference
curves to be positively sloped and convex.
214
Figure 13.1 A high, moderately and slightly risk averse indifference curves
Two important fundamental assumptions of indifference curve that causes it to be
positively sloped and convex.
1. The investors are assumed to prefer higher levels of return to lower levels of return,
because the higher levels of return allow the investor to spend more on consumption
at the end of the investment period. Thus, given two portfolios with the same
standard deviation, the investor will choose the portfolio with the higher expected
return. This is called an assumption of non satiation.
2. Investors are risk averse. It means that the investor when given the choice will
choose the investment or investment portfolio with the smaller risk. This is called
assumption of risk aversion.
Figure 13.2 Portfolio choices using the assumptions of non satiation and risk
aversion
215
Fig13.2 gives an example how the investor chooses between 3 investments – A, B and
C. Following the assumption of non satiation, investor will choose A or B which have
the higher level of expected return than C. Following the assumption of risk aversion
investor will choose A, despite of the same level of expected returns for investment A
and B, because the risk (standard deviation) for investment A is lower than for
investment B. In this choice the investor follows so called “furthest northwest “rule.
In reality there are an infinitive number of portfolios available for the investment. Is it
means that the investor needs to evaluate all these portfolios on return and risk basis?
Markowitz portfolio theory answers this question using efficient set theorem the
portfolio theory considers a universe of risky investments and explores these possible
investments in order to find the optimum portfolio. So, for a given amount of risk, MTP
explains how to select a portfolio with maximum returns and with a given amount of
return, MTP explains how to select a portfolio with minimum risk.
Suppose you have all the required data (expected returns, volatility, and correlations) for
all the investments you are considering. Using this data, you can create various
portfolios with different portfolio risk and return profiles. Among all these portfolios,
choose the optimal portfolios in either of the following way:
Identify all the portfolios that have the same risk (volatility). From this sub-set of
portfolios, choose the one that has the highest return.
Identify all the portfolios that have the same returns. From this sub-set of portfolios,
choose the one that has the lowest risk.
Both the methods will produce a set of optimal portfolios. This set of optimal portfolios
is called the efficient frontier.
If you plot all the portfolios that you could make using the universe of risky securities
that you have, the graph will look something like the one below:
216
Figure 13.3 Efficient Frontier
Each red dot represents the mean and standard deviation of a portfolio. The blue line is
the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier has all the optimal portfolios. Portfolios on
the efficient frontier have maximum return for a given level of risk or, alternatively,
minimum risk for a given level of return. Clearly, a rational investor will select a
portfolio on the efficient frontier.
Furthermore, if a risk-free investment is introduced into the universe of assets, then the
line passing through the intercept representing risk free asset becomes the tangential to
the efficient frontier, and this line is called the Capital Market Line (CML) and the
portfolio at the point (M) (Figure 13.4) at which it is tangential is called the Market
Portfolio.
217
Capital Market Line(CML): A line used in the capital asset pricing model to illustrate
the rates of return for efficient portfolios depending on the risk-free rate of return and the
level of risk (standard deviation) for a particular portfolio. The CML is derived by
drawing a tangent line from the intercept point on the efficient frontier to the point where
the expected return equals the risk-free rate of return. The CML is considered to be
superior to the efficient frontier since it takes into account the inclusion of a risk-free
asset in the portfolio.
The expected rate of return of the portfolio can be calculated in some alternative ways.
The Markowitz focus was on the end-of-period wealth (terminal value) and using these
expected end-of-period values for each security in the portfolio the expected end-of-
period return for the whole portfolio can be calculated. But the portfolio really is the set
of the securities thus the expected rate of return of a portfolio should depend on the
expected rates of return of each security included in the portfolio. This alternative
method for calculating the expected rate of return on the portfolio (E(r) p) is the
weighted average of the expected returns on its component securities:
Because a portfolio‘s expected return is a weighted average of the expected returns of its
securities, the contribution of each security to the portfolio‘s expected rate of return
depends on its expected return and its proportional share from the initial portfolio‘s
market value (weight). Nothing else is relevant. The conclusion here could be that the
investor who simply wants the highest possible expected rate of return must keep only
one security in his portfolio which has a highest expected rate of return. But why the
majority of investors don‘t do so and keep several different securities in their portfolios?
Because they try to diversify their portfolios aiming to reduce the investment portfolio
risk.
218
Risk of the portfolio
The most often used measure for the risk of investment is standard deviation, which
shows the volatility of the securities actual return from their expected return. If a
portfolio‘s expected rate of return is a weighted average of the expected rates of return of
its securities, the calculation of standard deviation for the portfolio can‘t simply use the
same approach. The reason is that the relationship between the securities in the same
portfolio must be taken into account. The relationship between the assets can be
estimated using the covariance and coefficient of correlation. As covariance can range
from “–” to “+” infinity, it is more useful for identification of the direction of
relationship (positive or negative), coefficients of correlation always lies between -1 and
+1 and is the convenient measure of intensity and direction of the relationship between
the assets.
219
The Risk Penalty:
The more risk one bears, the more undesirable is any additional unit of risk.
Theoretically, and as a computational convenience, it can be assumed that twice the risk
is four times as undesirable. The risk penalty is as follows:
Risk Penalty = Risk Squared / Risk Tolerance
Risk squared is the variance of return of the portfolio. Risk tolerance is the number from
0 to 100.The size of the risk tolerance number reflects the investor’s willingness to bear
more risk for more return. Low (high) tolerance indicated low (high) willingness. Risk
penalty is less as tolerance is increased.
For example, if a portfolio’s expected return is 13 percent, variance of return (risk
squared)is 225 percent, and the investor’s risk tolerance is 50, the risk penalty is 4.5
percent:
Risk Penalty= 225%/50 = 4.5%
Because utility is expected return minus risk penalty, we have:
Utility= 13 – 4.5 = 8.5%
The optimal (best) portfolio for an investor would be the one from the opportunity set
(efficient frontier) that maximizes utility.
where:
rit is return to stock i in period t
rf is the risk free rate (i.e. the interest rate on treasury bills)
rmt is the return to the market portfolio in period t
is the stock’s alpha, or abnormal return
is the stock’s beta, or responsiveness to the market return
Note that is called the excess return on the stock, the excess return
on the market
are the residual (random) returns, which are assumed independent normally
distributed with mean zero and standard deviation
220
These equations show that the stock return is influenced by the market (beta), has a firm
specific expected value (alpha) and firm-specific unexpected component (residual). Each
stock's performance is in relation to the performance of a market index (such as the All
Ordinaries). Security analysts often use the SIM for such functions as computing stock
betas, evaluating stock selection skills, and conducting event studies.
Assumptions of the single-Index Model
To simplify analysis, the single-index model assumes that there is only 1
macroeconomic factor that causes the systematic risk affecting all stock returns and this
factor can be represented by the rate of return on a market index, such as the S&P 500.
According to this model, the return of any stock can be decomposed into the expected
excess return of the individual stock due to firm-specific factors, commonly denoted by
its alpha coefficient (α), the return due to macroeconomic events that affect the market,
and the unexpected microeconomic events that affect only the firm.
The term represents the movement of the market modified by the stock's
beta, while represents the unsystematic risk of the security due to firm-specific
factors. Macroeconomic events, such as changes in interest rates or the cost of labor,
causes the systematic risk that affects the returns of all stocks, and the firm-specific
events are the unexpected microeconomic events that affect the returns of specific firms,
such as the death of key people or the lowering of the firm's credit rating, that would
affect the firm, but would have a negligible effect on the economy. In a portfolio, the
unsystematic risk due to firm-specific factors can be reduced to zero by diversification.
The index model is based on the following:
Most stocks have a positive covariance because they all respond similarly to
macroeconomic factors.
However, some firms are more sensitive to these factors than others, and this firm-
specific variance is typically denoted by its beta (β), which measures its variance
compared to the market for one or more economic factors.
Covariance among securities results from differing responses to macroeconomic
factors. Hence, the covariance of each stock can be found by multiplying their betas
and the market variance:
Cov ( )=
This last equation greatly reduces the computations required to determine covariance
because otherwise the covariance of the securities within a portfolio must be calculated
using historical returns, and the covariance of each possible pair of securities in the
portfolio must be calculated independently. With this equation, only the betas of the
individual securities and the market variance need to be estimated to calculate
covariance. Hence, the index model greatly reduces the number of calculations that
would otherwise have to be made to model a large portfolio of thousands of securities.
221
Activity A :
1. List out two major points of difference between Markowitz's approach and single-
Index Model of selecting optimal portfolio.
13.2.2.2 Simple Sharpe Optimization Model
Simple Sharpe Portfolio optimisation model enables the investor to find a portfolio that
best meets the goals, objectives and risk tolerance of the investor.
The method also stresses on portfolio optimisation, which is an important component of
the portfolio selection process. It helps to select a set of scrips, which provides the
highest rate of return for the lowest risk that the investor is willing to take.
Sharpe’s excess return to beta ratio is a single number that measures the desirability of
any stock to be included in the optimal portfolio. It is equal to -
(Ri – RF) / βi
Where:
Ri = expected return on stock i
RF = return on riskless asset
βi = expected change in the rate of return on stock i associated with a 1% change in the
market return.
Stocks are ranked by excess return to beta (from the highest to the lowest). The higher
the excess return to beta ratio, the more is the desirability of the stock to be included in
the portfolio. However, before selecting the stock it is necessary to determine the cut-off
rate C*. Stocks which have an excess return to beta greater than C* must be selected.
Determination of Cut-off Rate C*
Cut-off rate of ‘i’ stocks can be calculated using the simple formula –
i R j RF / j
m2
j 1 ej2
Ci
2ji
1 2
2
m
j 1 ej
Where:
m2 - the variance in the market index;
ej2 - the variance of a stock’s movement that is not associated with the movement of the
market index.
The following data are required to determine the optimal portfolio.
Assumptions: Variance of market = 10%
Risk Free rate of return is =5%
222
Table: 13.1
Security Mean Beta (βi) Unsystematic Excess Sharpe Rank
2
Return (R i) risk βei return (Ri – ratio (Ri –
RF) RF)/βi
1 19 1 20 14 14 1
2 23 1.5 30 18 12 2
3 11 0.5 10 6 12 3
4 25 2 40 20 10 4
5 13 1 20 8 8 5
6 9 0.5 50 4 8 5
7 14 1.5 30 9 6 6
After ranking the security, in the table 13.2 cut off rate has been calculated. For the
calculation of cut-off rate we first calculate the Ci as if only the first ranked security is
included in the portfolio. Then we calculate Ci considering as if only the first and second
ranked security is included in the optimum portfolio, and so on.
Table: 13.2
Security (Ri – RF)/βi [(Ri – RF)βi]/ ei2 ∑[(Ri – RF)βI]/ ei2 βi2/ei2 βi2/ei2 Ci
1 14 0.7 0.7 0.05 0.05 4.67
2 12 0.9 1.6 0.125 0.125 7.11
3 12 0.3 1.9 0.15 0.15 7.60
4 10 1.0 2.9 0.25 0.25 8.29
5 8 0.4 3.3 0.3 0.3 8.25
6 8 0.04 3.34 0.305 0.305 8.25
7 6 0.45 3.79 0.38 0.38 7.9
The highest Ci value is taken as the cut off point i.e. C*. The stocks ranked above C*
have excess returns to beta than the cut off Ci and all the stocks ranked below C* have
low excess returns to beta. Here, the cut off rate is 8.29. Hence first four securities are
included in the portfolio and last three are not.
223
N
Wi = Zi / Zj where Zi = βi/ei2 [(Ri – RF)/βi – C*]
J=1
In the above formula the second expression determines the relative investment in each
security. The first determines the weight of each security in the portfolio so that they
sum to 1. This ensures full investment.
Table: 13.3
Security (Ri – RF)/βi C* Zi = βi/ei2 [(Ri – RF)/βI– C*] Wi = Zi / Zj
1 14 8.29 0.285 0.38
2 12 8.29 0.186 0.25
3 12 8.29 0.186 0.25
4 10 8.29 0.086 0.12
∑Zi=0.743
The above table reflects the amount to be invested in each security. Thus we see that
Sharpe’s model not only helps the investor to decide on the security to be included, but
also determines their proportion in a portfolio, to ensure maximum return at minimum
risk. The largest investment should be in the security 1 and smallest in security 4.
224
Z4= 2/40 (10-7.9) = 0.105
Z5 = 1/20(8-7.9) = 0.005
Z6=0.5/50(8-7.9) = 0.001
Z7= 1.5/30(6-7.9) = -0.095
Therefore the seventh stock will be sold short.
Measuring Risk in CAPM is based on the identification of two key components of total
risk (as measured by variance or standard deviation of return):
Systematic risk
Unsystematic risk
Systematic risk is that associated with the market (purchasing power risk, interest rate
risk, liquidity risk, etc.)
Unsystematic risk is unique to an individual asset (business risk, financial risk, and other
risks, related to investment into particular asset).
Unsystematic risk can be diversified away by holding many different assets in the
portfolio, however systematic risk can’t be diversified (see Fig 13.4). In CAPM investors
are compensated for taking only systematic risk. Though, CAPM only links investments
via the market as a whole.
225
Figure.13.4 Portfolio risk and the level of diversification
The essence of the CAPM: the more systematic risk the investor carry, the greater is his /
her expected return.
The CAPM being theoretical model is based on some important assumptions:
• All investors look only one-period expectations about the future;
• Investors are price takers and they can’t influence the market individually;
• There is risk free rate at which an investors may either lend (invest) or borrow
money.
• Investors are risk-averse,
• Taxes and transaction costs are irrelevant.
• Information is freely and instantly available to all investors.
Following these assumptions, the CAPM predicts what an expected rate of return for
the investor should be given other statistics about the expected rate of return in the
market and market risk (systematic risk):
Several of the assumptions of CAPM seem unrealistic. Investors really are concerned
about taxes and are paying the commissions to the broker when buying or selling their
226
securities. And the investors usually do look ahead more than one period. Large
institutional investors managing their portfolios sometimes can influence market by
buying or selling big amounts of the securities. All things considered, the assumptions of
the CAPM constitute only a modest gap between the theory and reality. But the
empirical studies and especially wide use of the CAPM by practitioners show that it is
useful instrument for investment analysis and decision making in reality.
As can be seen in Fig.13.5, the straight line having an intercept of Rf and slope of β(j) * (
E(rM) - Rf). This relationship between the expected return and Beta is known as Security
Market Line (SML). Each security can be described by its specific security market line;
they differ because their Betas are different and reflect different levels of market risk for
these securities.
Security Market Line (SML): A line that graphs the systematic, or market, risk versus
return of the whole market at a certain time and shows all risky marketable securities. It
is also referred to as the "characteristic line". The SML essentially graphs the results
from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) formula. The x-axis represents the risk
(beta), and the y-axis represents the expected return. The market risk premium is
determined from the slope of the SML.
The security market line is a useful tool in determining whether an asset being
considered for a portfolio offers a reasonable expected return for risk. Individual
securities are plotted on the SML graph. If the security's risk versus expected return is
plotted above the SML, it is undervalued because the investor can expect a greater return
for the inherent risk. A security plotted below the SML is overvalued because the
investor would be accepting less return for the amount of risk assumed.
227
Beta Coefficient (β)
Each security has its individual systematic -undiversified risk, measured using
coefficient Beta. Coefficient Beta (β) indicates how the price of security/ return on
security depends upon the market forces. Thus, coefficient Beta for any security can be
calculated using formula:
Table: 13.4
One very important feature of Beta to the investor is that the Beta of portfolio is simply a
weighted average of the Betas of its component securities, where the proportions
invested in the securities are the respective weights. Thus, Portfolio Beta can be
calculated using formula:
228
Earlier it was shown that the expected return on the portfolio is a weighted average of
the expected returns of its components securities, where the proportions invested in the
securities are the weights. This means that because every security plots on the SML, so
will every portfolio. That means, that not only every security, but also every portfolio
must plot on an upward sloping straight line, with the expected return on the vertical axis
and Beta on the horizontal axis.
Activity B :
1. Explain why most investors prefer to hold a diversified portfolio of securities as
opposed to placing all of their wealth in a single asset.
APT was proposed by Stephen S. Rose and presented in his article “The arbitrage theory
of Capital Asset Pricing“, published in Journal of Economic Theory in 1976. Still there
is a potential for it and it may sometimes displace the CAPM. In the CAPM returns on
individual assets are related to returns on the market as a whole. The key point behind
APT is the rational statement that the market return is determined by a number of
different factors. These factors can be fundamental factors or statistical. If these factors
are essential, there to be no arbitrage opportunities there must be restrictions on the
investment process. Arbitrage can be explained as the earning of riskless profit by
taking advantage of differential pricing for the same assets or security. Arbitrage is
widely applied investment tactic.
APT states that the expected rate of return of security J is the linear function from
the complex economic factors common to all securities and can be estimated using
formula:
229
It is important to note that the arbitrage in the APT is only approximate; relating
diversified portfolios, on assumption that the asset unsystematic (specific) risks are
negligible compared with the factor risks. There could presumably be an infinitive
number of factors, although the empirical research done by S. Ross together with R. Roll
(1984) identified four factors – economic variables, to which assets having even the
same CAPM Beta, are differently sensitive:
• Inflation; • Industrial production;
• Risk premiums; • Slope of the term structure in interest rates.
In practice an investor can choose the macroeconomic factors which seem important and
related with the expected returns of the particular asset. The examples of possible
macroeconomic factors which could be included in using APT model:
• GDP growth;
• An interest rate;
• An exchange rate;
• A default spread on corporate bonds, etc.
Including more factors in APT model seems logical. The institutional investors and
analysts closely watch macroeconomic statistics such as the money supply, inflation,
interest rates, unemployment, changes in GDP, political events and many others. Reason
for this might be their belief that new information about the changes in these
macroeconomic indicators will influence future asset price movements. But it is
important to point out that not all investors or analysts are concerned with the same set
of economic information and they differently assess the importance of various
macroeconomic factors to the assets they have invested already or are going to invest. At
the same time the large number of the factors in the APT model would be impractical,
because the models seldom are 100 percent accurate and the asset prices are function of
both macroeconomic factors and noise. The noise is coming from minor factors, with a
little influence to the result – expected rate of return.
The APT does not require identification of the market portfolio, but it does require the
specification of the relevant macroeconomic factors. Much of the current empirical APT
research is focused on identification of these factors and the determination of the factors’
Betas. And this problem is still unsolved. Although more than two decades have passed
since S. Ross introduced APT model, it has yet to reach the practical application stage.
The CAPM and APT are not really essentially different, because they are developed for
determining an expected rate of return based on one factor i.e. market portfolio (CAPM)
or a number of macroeconomic factors (APT). But both models predict how the return
on asset will result from factor sensitivities and this is of great importance to the
investor.
230
13.3 Summary
Capital Market Line (CML) shows the trade off-between expected rate of return and risk
for the efficient portfolios under determined risk free return.The expected rate of return
on the portfolio is the weighted average of the expected returns on its component
securities.The calculation of standard deviation for the portfolio can’t simply use the
weighted average approach. The reason is that the relationship between the securities in
the same portfolio measured by coefficient of correlation must be taken into account.
When forming the diversified portfolios consisting large number of securities investors
found the calculation of the portfolio risk using standard deviation technically
complicated. Simple Sharpe Portfolio optimisation model enables the investor to find a
portfolio that best meets the goals, objectives and risk tolerance of the investor. The
method also stresses on portfolio optimisation, which is an important component of the
portfolio selection process. It helps to select a set of scrips, which provides the highest
rate of return for the lowest risk that the investor is willing to take. Model not only helps
the investor to decide on the security to be included, but also determines their proportion
in a portfolio, to ensure maximum return at minimum risk.The single-index model
assumes that there is only 1 macroeconomic factor that causes the systematic risk
231
affecting all stock returns and this factor can be represented by the rate of return on a
market index. According to this model, the return of any stock can be decomposed into
the expected excess return of the individual stock due to firm-specific factors, commonly
denoted by its alpha coefficient (α). Measuring Risk in Capital asset Pricing Model
(CAPM) is based on the identification of two key components of total risk: systematic
risk and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk is that associated with the market.
Unsystematic risk is unique to an individual asset and can be diversified away by
holding many different assets in the portfolio. In CAPM investors are compensated for
taking only systematic risk.The essence of the CAPM: CAPM predicts what an expected
rate of return for the investor should be, given other statistics about the expected rate of
return in the market, risk free rate of return and market risk (systematic risk).
Each security has its individual systematic - undiversified risk, measured using
coefficient Beta. Coefficient Beta (β) indicates how the price of security/ return on
security depends upon the market forces. The Beta of the portfolio is simply a weighted
average of the Betas of its component securities, where the proportions invested in the
securities are the respective weights. Security Market Line (SML) demonstrates the
relationship between the expected return and Beta. Each security can be described by its
specific security market line; they differ because their Betas are different and reflect
different levels of market risk for these securities. Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)
states, that the expected rate of return of security is the linear function from the complex
economic factors common to all securities. There could presumably be an infinitive
number of factors. The examples of possible macroeconomic factors which could be
included in using APT model are GDP growth; an interest rate; an exchange rate; a
default spread on corporate bonds, etc.
232
13.5 Reference Books
233
Unit – 14 Portfolio Evaluation
Structure of Units
14.0 Objectives
14.1 Introduction
14.2 What is Required of a Portfolio Manager?
14.3 Composite Portfolio Performance Measures.
14.4 Summary
14.5 Self Assessment Questions
14.6 Reference Books
14.0 Objectives
14.1 Introduction
234
14.2 What is required of a Portfolio Manager?
235
Portfolio Evaluation before 1960: At one time, investors evaluated portfolio
performance almost entirely on the basis of the rate of return. They were aware of the
concept of risk but did not know how to quantify or measure it, so they could not
consider it explicitly. Developments in portfolio theory in the early 1960s showed
investors how to quantify and measure risk in terms of the variability of returns. Still,
because no single measure combined both return and risk, the two factors had to be
considered separately as researchers had done in several early studies. Specifically, the
investigators grouped portfolios into similar risk classes based on a measure of risk (such
as the variance of return) and then compared the rates of return for alternative portfolios
directly within these risk classes.
This section describes in detail the four major composite equity portfolio performance
measures that combine risk and return performance into a single value. We describe each
measure and its intent and then demonstrate how to compute it and interpret the results.
We also compare the measures and discuss how they differ and why they rank portfolios
differently.
Peer Group Comparisons: Before examining measures of portfolio performance that
adjust an investor’s return for the level of investment risk, we first consider the concept
of a peer group comparison. This method, which Kritzman describes as the most
common manner of evaluating portfolio managers, collects the returns produced by a
representative universe of investors over a specific period of time and displays them in a
simple box plot format. To aid the comparison, the universe is typically divided into
percentiles, which indicate the relative ranking of a given investor. For instance, a
portfolio manager that produced a one-year return of 12.4 percent would be in the 10th
percentile if only nine other portfolios in a universe of 100 produced a higher return.
Although these comparisons can get quite detailed, it is common for the box plot graphic
to include the maximum and minimum returns, as well as the returns falling at the 25th,
50th (i.e., the median), and 75th percentiles.
Portfolio performance evaluation involves determining periodically how the portfolio
performed in terms of not only the return earned, but also the risk experienced by the
investor. For portfolio evaluation appropriate measures of return and risk as well as
relevant standards (or “benchmarks”) are needed.
In general, the market value of a portfolio at a point of time is determined by adding the
markets value of all the securities held at that particular time. The market value of the
portfolio at the end of the period is calculated in the same way, only using end-of- period
prices of the securities held in the portfolio.
236
The return on the portfolio (Rp):
The essential idea behind performance evaluation is to compare the returns which were
obtained on portfolio with the results that could be obtained if more appropriate
alternative portfolios had been chosen for the investment. Such comparison portfolios
are often referred to as benchmark portfolios. In selecting them investor should be
certain that they are relevant, feasible and known in advance. The benchmark should
reflect the objectives of the investor.
Portfolio Beta can be used as an indication of the amount of market risk that the
portfolio had during the time interval. It can be compared directly with the betas of other
portfolios. We cannot compare the ex post or the expected and the expected return of
two portfolios without adjusting for risk. To adjust the return for risk before comparison
of performance risk adjusted measures of performance can be used:
Treynor’s ratio;
Sharpe’s ratio;
Jensen’s Alpha.
Treynor’s ratio: Treynor developed the first composite measure of portfolio
performance that included risk. He postulated two components of risk: (1) risk produced
by general market fluctuations and (2) risk resulting from unique fluctuations in the
portfolio securities. To identify risk due to market fluctuations, he introduced the
characteristic line, which defines the relationship between the rates of return for a
portfolio over time and the rates of return for an appropriate market portfolio, as we
discussed earlier. He noted that the characteristic line’s slope measures the relative
volatility of the portfolio’s returns in relation to returns for the aggregate market. As we
also know, this slope is the portfolio’s beta coefficient. A higher slope (beta)
characterizes a portfolio that is more sensitive to market returns and that has greater
market risk.
Deviations from the characteristic line indicate unique returns for the portfolio relative to
the market. These differences arise from the returns on individual stocks in the portfolio.
In a completely diversified portfolio, these unique returns for individual stocks should
cancel out. As the correlation of the portfolio with the market increases, unique risk
declines and diversification improves. Because Treynor was not concerned about this
aspect of portfolio performance, he gave no further consideration to the diversification
measure.
237
Treynor’s ratio shows an excess actual return over risk free rate, or risk premium, by
unit of systematic risk, measured by Beta:
Treynor was interested in a measure of performance that would apply to all investors—
regardless of their risk preferences. Building on developments in capital market theory,
he introduced a risk-free asset that could be combined with different portfolios to form a
straight portfolio possibility line. He showed that rational, risk-averse investors would
always prefer portfolio possibility lines with larger slopes because such high-slope lines
would place investors on higher indifference curves.
As noted, a larger T value indicates a larger slope and a better portfolio for all investors
(regardless of their risk preferences). Because the numerator of this ratio is the risk
premium and the denominator is a measure of risk, the total expression indicates the
portfolio’s risk premium return per unit of risk. All risk-averse investors would prefer to
maximize this value. Note that the risk variable beta measures systematic risk and tells
us nothing about the diversification of the portfolio. It implicitly assumes a completely
diversified portfolio, which means that systematic risk is the relevant risk measure.
Demonstration of Comparative Treynor Measures To understand how to use and
interpret this measure of performance, suppose that during the most recent 10-year
period, the average annual total rate of return (including dividends) on an aggregate
market portfolio, such as the S&P 500, was 14 percent and the average nominal rate of
return on government T-bills was 8 percent. Assume that, as administrator of a large
pension fund that has been divided among three money managers during the past 10
years, you must decide whether to renew your investment management contracts with all
three managers. To do this, you must measure how they have performed.
Assume you are given the following results:
238
You can compute T values for the market portfolio and for each of the individual
portfolio managers as follows:
239
Obviously, this performance would plot below the SML
A portfolio with a negative beta and an average rate of return above the risk-free rate of
return would likewise have a negative T value. In this case, however, it indicates
exemplary performance.
As an example, assume that Portfolio Manager G invested heavily in gold mining stocks
during a period of great political and economic uncertainty. Because gold often has a
negative correlation with most stocks, this portfolio’s beta could be negative. Assume
that our gold portfolio G had a beta of –0.20 and yet experienced an average rate of
return of 10 percent. The T value for this portfolio would then be
Although the T value is –0.100, if you plotted these results on a graph, it would indicate
a position substantially above the SML
Because negative betas can yield T values that give confusing results, it is preferable
either to plot the portfolio on an SML graph or to compute the expected return for this
portfolio using the SML equation and then compare this expected return to the actual
return. This comparison will reveal whether the actual return was above or below
expectations. In the preceding example for Portfolio G, the expected return would be
Comparing this expected (required) rate of return of 6.8 percent to the actual return of 10
percent shows that Portfolio Manager G has done a superior job.
Sharpe’s ratio: Sharpe likewise conceived of a composite measure to evaluate the
performance of mutual funds. The measure followed closely his earlier work on the
capital asset pricing model (CAPM), dealing specifically with the capital market line
(CML).
240
The Sharpe measure of portfolio performance (designated S) is stated as follows:
This measure seeks to measure the total risk of the portfolio by including the standard
deviation of returns rather than considering only the systematic risk summarized by beta.
Because the numerator is the portfolio’s risk premium, this measure indicates the risk
premium return earned per unit of total risk. In terms of capital market theory, this
portfolio performance measure uses total risk to compare portfolios to the CML. Finally,
notice that in practice the standard deviation can be calculated using either total portfolio
returns or portfolio returns in excess of the risk-free rate.
Demonstration of Comparative Sharpe Measures: The following examples use the
Sharpe measure of performance. Again, assume that average portfolio return is 0.14 and
risk free rate of return is 0.08. Suppose you are told that the standard deviation of the
annual rate of return for the market portfolio over the past 10 years was 20 percent (σ m =
0.20). Now you want to examine the performance of the following portfolios:
241
The D portfolio had the lowest risk premium return per unit of total risk, failing even to
perform as well as the aggregate market portfolio. In contrast, Portfolios E and F
performed better than the aggregate market: Portfolio E did better than Portfolio F.
Given the market portfolio results during this period, it is possible to draw the CML. If
we plot the results for Portfolios D, E, and F on this graph, we see that, Portfolio D plots
below the line, whereas the E and F portfolios are above the line, indicating superior
risk-adjusted performance.
242
diversified portfolios, as many mutual funds are, the two measures provide similar
rankings.
A disadvantage of the Treynor and Sharpe measures is that they produce relative, but not
absolute, rankings of portfolio performance. That is, the Sharpe measures for Portfolios
E and F, show that both generated risk adjusted returns above the market. Further, E’s
risk-adjusted performance measure is larger than F’s. What we cannot say with certainty,
however, is whether any of these differences are statistically significant.
Jensen‘s Alpha shows excess actual return over required return and excess of actual risk
premium over required risk premium. This measure of the portfolio manager’s
performance is based on the CAPM. The Jensen measure is similar to the measures
already discussed because it is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). All
versions of the CAPM calculate the expected one-period return on any security or
portfolio by the following expression:
The basic idea is that to analyze the performance of an investment manager you must
look not only at the overall return of a portfolio, but also at the risk of that portfolio. For
example, if there are two mutual funds that both have a 12% return, a rational investor
will want the fund that is less risky. Jensen's measure is one of the ways to help
determine if a portfolio is earning the proper return for its level of risk. If the value is
positive, then the portfolio is earning excess returns. In other words, a positive value for
Jensen's alpha means a fund manager has "beat the market" with his or her stock picking
skills.
Applying the Jensen Measure: The Jensen measure of performance requires using a
different risk free rate for each time interval during the sample period. For example, to
examine the performance of a fund manager over a 10-year period using yearly intervals,
you must examine the fund’s annual returns less the return on risk-free assets for each
year and relate this to the annual return on the market portfolio less the same risk-free
rate. This contrasts with the Treynor and Sharpe composite measures, which examine the
average returns for the total period for all variables (the portfolio, the market, and the
risk-free asset).
243
Also, like the Treynor measure, the Jensen measure does not directly consider the
portfolio manager’s ability to diversify because it calculates risk premiums in terms of
systematic risk. As noted earlier, to evaluate the performance of a group of well-
diversified portfolios such as mutual funds, this is likely to be a reasonable assumption.
Jensen’s analysis of mutual fund performance showed that complete diversification was
a fairly reasonable assumption because the funds typically correlated with the market at
rates above 0.90.
It is important to note, that if a portfolio is completely diversified, all of these measures
(Sharpe, Treynor’s ratios and Jensen’s alfa) will agree on the ranking of the portfolios.
The reason for this is that with the complete diversification total variance is equal to
systematic variance. When portfolios are not completely diversified, the Treynor’s and
Jensen’s measures can rank relatively undiversified portfolios much higher than the
Sharpe measure does. Since the Sharpe ratio uses total risk, both systematic and
unsystematic components are included.
Jensen in his study of 115 funds found that only 39 funds possessed positive alpha and
employing professional management has improved the expected return. On an average,
fund’s performance is worse than expected without professional management and if any
investor is to purchase fund’s shares, he must be very selective in his evaluation of
management. Thus, Jensen’s evaluation of portfolio performance involves two steps:
1. Using the equation expected return should be calculated
2. With the help of beta, Rm and RFR, he has to compare actual return with expected
return. If the actual return is greater than expected return, then the portfolio is
considered to be functioning in a better manner. The following table gives the
portfolio return and market return. Rank the performance.
The return can be calculated with the given information using formula:
244
Portfolio C= 5+1.5(12-5) = 15.5
The difference between actual and expected return is compared
Portfolio A= 15-13.4= 1.6
Portfolio B= 12-10.6= 1.4
Portfolio C= 15-15.5= -0.5
Among risk adjusted performance to the three portfolios, A is the best, B is second best
and the last is portfolio C.
All the performance measures just described are only as good as their data inputs. You
must be careful when computing the rates of return to take proper account of all inflows
and outflows. More importantly, you should use judgment and be patient in the
evaluation process. It is not possible to evaluate a portfolio manager on the basis of a
quarter or even a year. Your evaluation should extend over several years and cover at
least a full market cycle. This will allow you to determine whether the manager’s
performance differs during rising and declining markets. Beyond these general cautions,
several specific factors should be considered when using these measures.
Most of the equity portfolio performance measures we have discussed are derived from
the
CAPM and assume the existence of a market portfolio at the point of tangency on the
Markowitz efficient frontier. Theoretically, the market portfolio is an efficient,
completely diversified portfolio because it is on the efficient frontier. As discussed
earlier, this market portfolio must contain all risky assets in the economy, so that it will
be completely diversified, and all components must be market-value weighted. The
problem arises in finding a realistic proxy for this theoretical market portfolio. As noted
previously, analysts typically use the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index as the proxy for the
market portfolio because it contains a fairly diversified portfolio of stocks, and the
sample is market-value weighted. Unfortunately, it does not represent the true
composition of the market portfolio. Specifically, it includes only common stocks and
most of them are listed on the NYSE. Notably, it excludes many other risky assets that
theoretically should be considered, such as numerous AMEX and OTC stocks, foreign
stocks, foreign and domestic bonds, real estate, coins, precious metals, stamps, and
antiques.
This lack of completeness was highlighted in several articles by Roll, who detailed the
problem with the market proxy and pointed out its implications for measuring portfolio
performance. Although a detailed discussion of Roll’s critique will not be repeated here,
245
we need to consider his major problem with the measurement of the market portfolio,
which he refers to as a benchmark error. He showed that if the proxy for the market
portfolio is not a truly efficient portfolio, then the SML using this proxy may not be the
true SML—the true SML could have a higher slope. In such a case, a portfolio plotted
above the SML and derived using a poor benchmark could actually plot below the SML
that uses the true market portfolio. Another problem is that the beta could differ from
that computed using the true market portfolio. For example, if the true beta were larger
than the beta computed using the proxy, the true position of the portfolio would shift to
the right. In an empirical test, Brown and Brown documented a considerable amount of
“ranking reversal” when the definition of the market portfolio was changed in a Jensen’s
alpha analysis of a sample of well-established mutual funds. In efforts to address this
problem, Grinblatt and Titman attempted to avoid the conflict altogether by introducing
a performance measurement process that did not require benchmarks while Daniel,
Grinblatt, Titman, and Wermers developed benchmarks based on the characteristics of
the stock held, such as firm size and book-to-market ratios. Terhaar shows how the
benchmark error problem can also affect attribution analysis.
Activity B :
Compare Treynor virus Sharpe Measure
Activity C :
Explain the Factors which affect use of performance measures
14.4 Summary
Portfolio performance evaluation involves determining periodically how the portfolio
performed in terms of not only the return earned, but also the risk experienced by the
investor. For portfolio evaluation appropriate measures of return and risk as well as
relevant standards (or “benchmarks”) are needed. In selecting benchmark portfolios
investor should be certain that they are relevant, feasible and known in advance. The
benchmark should reflect the objectives of the investor. To adjust the return for risk
before comparison of performance risk adjusted measures of performance can be used.
Sharpe’s ratio shows an excess a return over risk free rate, or risk premium, by unit of
total risk, measured by standard deviation. Treynor’s ratio shows an excess actual return
over risk free rate, or risk premium, by unit of systematic risk, measured by Beta.
Jensen‘s Alpha shows excess actual return over required return and excess of actual risk
premium over required risk premium. This measure of the portfolio manager’s
performance is based on the CAPM. The first major goal of portfolio management is to
derive rates of return that equal or exceed the returns on a naively selected portfolio with
equal risk. The second goal is to attain complete diversification relative to a suitable
benchmark. Several techniques have been derived to evaluate equity portfolios in terms
246
of both risk and return (composite measures). The Treynor measure considers the excess
returns earned per unit of systematic risk. The Sharpe measure indicates the excess
return per unit of total risk. The Jensen and Information Ratio measures likewise
evaluate performance in terms of the systematic risk involved and show how to
determine whether the difference in risk-adjusted performance (good or bad) is
statistically significant. Additional work in equity portfolio evaluation has been
concerned with models that indicate what components of the management process
contributed to the results. A model by Fama divided the composite return into measures
related to total risk, systematic risk, diversification, and selectivity, in addition to
measuring overall performance. Finally, attribution analysis seeks to establish whether
market timing or security selection skills (or both) are the source of a manager’s
performance.In conclusion, investors need to evaluate their own performance and the
performance of hired managers. The various techniques we discuss provide theoretically
justifiable measures that differ slightly. Although there is high rank correlation among
the alternative measures, all the measures should be used because they provide different
insights regarding the performance of managers. Finally, an evaluation of a portfolio
manager should be done many times over different market environments before a final
judgment is reached regarding the strengths and weaknesses of a manager.
247
14.6 Reference Books
248
Unit - 15 Portfolio Revision
Structure of Units
15.0 Objectives
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Meaning of Portfolio Revision
15.3 Need for Portfolio Revision
15.4 Introduction to Portfolio Revision Strategies
15.5 Constraints in Portfolio Revision
15.6 Portfolio Revision Strategies
15.7 Strategic Versus Tactical Asset Allocation
15.8 Monitoring and Revision of the Portfolio
15.9 Summary
15.10 Self Assessment Questions
15.11 Reference Books
15.0 Objectives
After completion of this unit, you would be able to
Understand need for Portfolio Revision.
Discuss and illustrate formula plans for portfolio revision.
Understand various ways to manage portfolios.
Understand difference between active and passive management techniques.
Understand in detail various asset allocation techniques.
15.1 Introduction
Most investors are comfortable with buying securities but spend little effort in revising
portfolio or selling stocks. In that process they lose opportunities to earn good return. In
the entire process of portfolio management, portfolio revision is as important as portfolio
analysis and selection. Keeping in mind the risk-return objective, an investor selects a
mix of securities from the given investment universe. In a dynamic world of investment,
it is only natural that the portfolio may not perform as desired or opportunities might
arise turning the desired into less than desired. Further, some of the risk and return
estimation might change over a period of time. In every such situation, a portfolio
revision is warranted.
249
15.2 Meaning of Portfolio Revision
Portfolio revision involves changing the existing mix of securities. The objective of
portfolio revision is similar to the objective of portfolio selection i.e., maximizing the
return for a given level of risk or minimising the risk for a given level of return. The
process of portfolio revision is also similar to the process of portfolio selection. This is
particularly true where active portfolio revision strategy is followed. It calls for
reallocation of funds between bond and stock market through economic analysis,
reallocation of funds among different industries through industry analysis and finally
selling and buying of stocks within the industry through company analysis. Where
passive portfolio revision strategy is followed, use of mechanical formula plans may be
made.
No plan can be perfect to the extent that it would not need revision sooner or later.
Investment Plans are certainly not. In the context of portfolio management the need for
revision is even more because the financial markets are continually changing. Thus the
need for portfolio revision might simply arise because market witnessed some significant
changes since the creation of the portfolio. Further, the need for portfolio revision may
arise because of some investor-related factors such as (i) availability of additional
wealth, (ii) change in the risk attitude and the utility function of the investor, (iii) change
in the investment goals of the investors and (iv) the need to liquidate a part of the
portfolio to provide funds for some alternative uses.
The other valid reasons for portfolio revision such as short-term price fluctuations in the
market do also exist. There are thus numerous factors, which may be broadly called
market related and investor related.
250
`performing as the market'. The followers of active revision strategy are found among
believers in the market inefficiency whereas passive revision strategy is the choice of
believers in the `market efficiency. However, some of the formula strategies are on the
premise of market inefficiency. The frequency of trading transactions, as is obvious, will
be more under active revision strategy than under passive revision strategy and so will
be the time, money and resources required for implementing active revision strategy than
for passive revision strategy. In other words, active and passive revision strategies differ
in terms of purpose, process and cost involved. The choice between the two strategies is
certainly not very straight forward. One has to compare relevant costs and benefits. On
the face of it, active revision strategy might appear quite appealing but in actual practice,
there exist a number of constraints in undertaking portfolio revision itself.
Investors follow both active and passive portfolio revision strategies. Studies about
portfolio revision strategies show that the efficient market hypothesis is slowly but
continuously gaining and investors revise their portfolio much less often than they were
doing previously because of their rising faith in market efficiency. Institutional investors
on the other hand have shown definite tendency in the recent past for active revision of
their portfolios and most often to correct their past mistakes. For instance, Morgan
Stanley mutual funds in India has made major revision in the last few years to reduce the
size of the portfolio since the fund invested initially in about 500 stocks. In a volatile
market, many funds feel that without such revision, it would be difficult to show better
performance. This is said to be motivated by their desire to achieve superior
performance by frequent trading to take advantage of their supposedly superior
investment skills.
A look into the portfolio revision practices as discussed above highlight that there are
number of constraints in portfolio revision, in general, and active portfolio revision, in
particular. Let us indicate some common constraints in portfolio revision as follows:
Transaction Cost: As you know buying and selling of securities involve transaction
cost including brokers' fee. Frequent buying and selling for portfolio revision may push
up transaction costs beyond gainful limits.
Taxes: In most of the countries, capital gains are taxed at concessional rates. But for any
income to qualify as capital gains, it should be earned after lapse of a certain period. To
qualify such concessional rate of 10% tax, investors today need to wait for one year after
the purchase. The minimum period required to qualify for long-term capital gain is one
year for financial assets. Frequent selling for portfolio revision may mean foregoing
capital gains tax concession. Higher the tax differential (between rates of tax for income
251
and capital gains), higher the constraint. Even for tax switches, which means that one
stock is sold to establish a tax loss and a comparable security is purchased to replace it in
the investor's portfolio, one must wait for a minimum period after selling a stock and
before repurchasing it, to be able to declare the gain or loss. If the stock is repurchased
before the minimum fixed period, it is considered a wash sale, and no gain or loss can be
claimed for tax purpose.
Statutory Stipulations: In many countries including India, statutory stipulations have
been made as to the percentage of investible funds that can be invested by investment
companies/mutual funds in the shares/debentures of a company or industry. In such
situation, the initiative to revise portfolio is most likely to get stifled under the burden of
various stipulations. Government owned investment companies and mutual funds are
quite Portfolio Revision often called upon to support sagging markets (albeit counters)
or cool down heated markets, which puts limit on the active portfolio revision by these
companies.
No Single Formula: Portfolio revision is no exact science. Even today there does not
exist clear cut answer to the overall question of whether, when and how to revise a
portfolio. The entire process is fairly cumbersome and time-consuming. The investment
literature do provide some formula plans, which we shall discuss in the following
section, but they have their own assumptions and limitations.
252
B) Active Portfolio Management:
Active investors believe that from time to time there are mispriced securities or
groups of securities in the market;
The active investors do not act as if they believe that security markets are efficient;
The active investors use deviant predictions – their forecast of risk and return differ
from consensus opinions.
There are arguments for both active and passive investing though it is probably a case
that a larger percentage of institutional investors invest passively than do individual
investors. of course, the active versus passive investment management decision does not
have to be a strictly either/ or choice. One common investment strategy is to invest
passively in the markets investor considers to be efficient and actively in the markets
investor considers inefficient. Investors also combine the two by investing part of the
portfolio passively and another part actively.
15.6.2 The Formula Plans
The formula plans provide the basic rules and regulations for the purchase and sale of
securities. The amount to be spent on the different types of securities is fixed. The
amount may be fixed either in constant or variable ratio. This depends on investor’s
attitude towards risk and return. The commonly used formula plans are rupee cost
averaging, constant rupee value, the constant ratio and the variable ratio plans. The
formula plans help to divide the investible funds between aggressive and conservative
portfolios.
Normally, the problem of portfolio revision essentially boils down to timing the buying
and selling the securities. Ideally, investors should buy when prices are low, and then
sell these securities when their prices are high. But as stock prices fluctuate, the natural
tendencies of investors often cause them to react in a way opposite to one that would
enable them to benefit from these fluctuations. Investors are hesitant to buy when prices
are low for fear that prices will fall further lower, or for fear that prices won't move
upward again. When prices are high, investors are hesitant to sell because they feel that
prices may rise further and they may realise larger profits. It requires skill and discipline
to buy when stock prices are low and pessimism abounds and to sell when stock prices
are high and optimism prevails. Mechanical portfolio revision techniques have been
developed to ease the problem of whether and when to revise to achieve the benefits of
buying stocks when prices are low and selling stocks when prices are high. These
techniques are referred to as formula plans. Before discussing each one of these, let us
understand the basic assumptions and ground rules of formula plans.
253
Basic Assumptions and Ground Rules
The formula plans are based on the following assumptions:
l. The stock prices move up and down in cycles.
2. The stock prices and the high grade bond prices move in the opposite directions.
3. The investors cannot or are not inclined to forecast direction of the next fluctuation
in stock prices which may be due to lack of skill and resources or their belief in market
efficiency or both.
The use of formula plans call for the investor to divide his investment funds into two
portfolios, one aggressive and the other conservative or defensive. The aggressive
portfolio usually consists of stocks while conservative portfolio consists of bonds.
The formula plans specify pre-designated rules for the transfer of funds from the
aggressive into the conservative and vice-versa such that it automatically causes the
investor to sell stocks when their prices are rising and buy stocks when their prices are
falling. Let us now discuss, one by one, the formula plans.
Constant-Rupee-Value Plan
The Plan (CRVP) asserts that the Rupee value of the stock portion of the portfolio will
remain constant. This, in operational terms, would mean that as the value of the stocks
rises, the investor must automatically sell some of the shares to keep the value of his
aggressive portfolio constant. If, on the other hand, the prices of the stocks fall, the
investor must buy additional stocks to keep the value of the aggressive portfolio
constant. By specifying that the aggressive portfolio will remain constant in rupee value,
the plan implies that the remainder of the total fund will be invested in the conservative
fund. In order to implement this plan, an important question to answer is what will be the
action points? Or, in other words, when will the investor make the transfer called for to
keep the rupee value of the aggressive portfolio constant? Will it be made with every
change in the prices of the stocks comprising the aggressive portfolio? Or, will it be set
according to pre-specified periods of time or percentage change in some economic or
market index or percentage change in the value of the aggressive portfolio?
Constant-Ratio-Plan
The constant-ratio plan specifies that the value of the aggressive portfolio to the value of
the conservative portfolio will be held constant at the pre-determined ratio. This plan
automatically forces the investor to sell stocks as their prices rise, in order to keep the
ratio of the value of their aggressive portfolio to the value of the conservative portfolio
constant.
254
Variable-Ratio Plan
Variable-ratio plan is a more flexible variation of constant ratio plan. Under the variable
ratio plan, it is provided that if the value of aggressive portfolio changes by certain
percentage or more, the initial ratio between the aggressive portfolio and conservative
portfolio will be allowed to change as per the pre-determined schedule. Some variations
of this plan provide for the ratios to vary according to economic or market indices rather
than the value of the aggressive portfolio. Still others use moving averages of indicators.
15.6.3 Rupee Cost Averaging
In the formula plans discussed above, investors have to create two portfolios and switch
the investment from one to another depending on the market condition. An alternative to
this approach is investing only in stocks and building a portfolio over a period of time
while reducing the cost of acquisition. Often investors get into the problem of bad
investment by betting the entire wealth on stocks. Such mistakes can be avoided by
investing regularly over a period of time and thus getting an average price of the market.
Since stocks have always the tendency of moving upward and downward, it would be
difficult to exactly buy at low and sell at top. These averaging methods allow the
investors to participate in both bull and bear markets.
Rupee Cost Averaging
Under this method, an investor will invest a constant amount every period (say monthly)
in single or group of stocks or invest in index funds. In that process, if the stock price is
low, the investor would be in a position to buy more stocks (or more units in the case of
mutual funds investments) and if the prices are high, then the investor will purchase less
number of stocks or units. Since the amount invested is same irrespective of the market
conditions, this technique is referred to as Rupee cost averaging. Over a period of time
(after couple of bull and bear markets), you can expect the average cost of holding per
share will be considerably less than the current market price. But yes one has to wait for
a minimum period to see the impact of such plans.
Activity A :
1 What are the reasons which cause investors managing their portfolios passively to
make changes their portfolios?
255
15.7 Strategic Versus Tactical Asset Allocation
An asset allocation focuses on determining the mixture of asset classes that is most
likely to provide a combination of risk and expected return that is optimal for the
investor. Asset allocation is a bit different from diversification. It focus is on investment
in various asset classes. Diversification, in contrast, tends to focus more on security
selection – selecting the specific securities to be held within an asset class.
Asset classes here is understood as groups of securities with similar characteristics and
properties (for example, common stocks; bonds; derivatives, etc.). Asset allocation
proceeds other approaches to investment portfolio management, such as market timing
(buy low, sell high) or selecting the individual securities which are expected will be the
“winners”. These activities may be integrated in the asset allocation process. But the
main focus of asset allocation is to find such a combination of the different asset classes
in the investment portfolio which the best matches with the investor’s goals – expected
return on investment and investment risk. Asset allocation largely determines an
investor’s success or lack thereof. In fact, studies have shown that as much as 90 % or
more of a portfolio’s return comes from asset allocation. Furthermore, researchers have
found that asset allocation has a much greater impact on reducing total risk than does
selecting the best investment vehicle in any single asset category.
Two categories in asset allocation are defined:
Strategic asset allocation;
Tactical asset allocation.
Strategic asset allocation identifies asset classes and the proportions for those asset
classes that would comprise the normal asset allocation. Strategic asset allocation is used
to derive long) term asset allocation weights. The fixed weightings approach in strategic
asset allocation is used. Investor using this approach allocates a fixed percentage of the
portfolio to each of the asset classes, of which typically are three to five. Example of
asset allocation in the portfolio might be as follows:
Asset Class Allocation
Common Stoc k 40%
Bonds 50%
Short-Term Securities 10%
Total Portfolio 100%
256
Generally, these weights are not changed over time. When market values change, the
investor may have to adjust the portfolio annually or after major market moves to
maintain the desired fixed) percentage allocation.
Tactical asset allocation produces temporary asset allocation weights that occur in
response to temporary changes in capital market conditions. The investor’s goals and
risk- return preferences are assumed to remain unchanged as the asset weights are
occasionally revised to help attain the investor’s constant goals. For example, if the
investor believes some sector of the market is over) or under valuated. The passive asset
allocation will not have any changes in weights of asset classes in the investor’s
portfolio – the weights identified by strategic asset allocation are used.
Alternative asset allocations are often related with the different approaches to risk and
return, identifying conservative, moderate and aggressive asset allocation.
The conservative allocation is focused on providing low return with low risk; the
moderate – average return with average risk and the aggressive – high return and high
risk. The example of these alternative asset allocations is presented in
Table 15.1
For asset allocation decisions Markowitz portfolio model as a selection techniques can
be used. Although Markowitz model was developed for selecting portfolios of individual
securities, but thinking in terms of asset classes, this model can be applied successfully
to find the optimal allocation of assets in the portfolio. Programs exist to calculate
efficient frontiers using asset classes and Markowitz model is frequently used for the
asset allocation in institutional investors’ portfolios.
The correlation between asset classes is obviously a key factor in building an optimal
portfolio. Investors are looking to have in their portfolios asset classes that are
negatively correlated with each other, or at least not highly positively correlated with
each other. It is obvious that correlation coefficients between asset classes returns
change over time. It is also important to note that the historical correlation between
different asset classes will vary depending on the time period chosen, the frequency of
the data and the asset class, used to estimate the correlation.
257
15.8 Monitoring and Revision of the Portfolio
The main reasons for the necessity of the investment portfolio revision:
As the economy evolves, certain industries and companies become either less or
more attractive as investments;
The investor over the time may change his/her investment objectives and in this way
his/ her portfolio isn’t longer optimal;
The constant need for diversification of the portfolio. Individual securities in the
portfolio often change in risk-return characteristics and their diversification effect
may be lessened.
Three areas to monitor when implementing investor’s portfolio monitoring:
1. Changes in market conditions;
2. Changes in investor’s circumstances;
3. Asset mix in the portfolio.
The need to monitor changes in the market is obvious. Investment decisions are made in
dynamic investment environment, where changes occur permanently. The key
macroeconomic indicators (such as GDP growth, inflation rate, interest rates, others), as
well as the new information about industries and companies should be observed by
investor on the regular basis, because these changes can influence the returns and risk of
the investments in the portfolio. Investor can monitor these changes using various
sources of information, especially specialized websites (most frequently used are
presented in relevant websites). It is important to identify he major changes in the
investment environment and to assess whether these changes should negatively influence
investor’s currently held portfolio. If it so investor must take an actions to rebalance his/
her portfolio.
When monitoring the changes in the investor’s circumstances, following aspects must be
taken into account:
Change in wealth
Change in time horizon
Change in liquidity requirements
Change in tax circumstances
Change in legal considerations
Change in other circumstances and investor’s needs.
Any changes identified must be assessed very carefully before usually they generally are
related with the noticeable changes in investor’s portfolio.
258
Rebalancing a portfolio is the process of periodically adjusting it to maintain certain
original conditions. Rebalancing reduces the risks of losses – in general, a rebalanced
portfolio is less volatile than one that is not rebalanced. Several methods of rebalancing
portfolios are used:
Constant proportion portfolio;
Constant Beta portfolio;
Indexing.
Constant proportion portfolio
A constant proportion portfolio is one in which adjustments are made so as to maintain
the relative weighting of the portfolio components as their prices change. Investors
should concentrate on keeping their chosen asset allocation percentage (especially those
following the requirements for strategic asset allocation). There is no one correct
formula for when to rebalance. One rule may be to rebalance portfolio when asset
allocations vary by 10% or more. But many investors find it bizarre that constant
proportion rebalancing requires the purchase of securities that have performed poorly
and the sale of those that have performed the best. But the investor should always
consider this method of rebalancing as one choice, but not necessarily the best one.
Constant Beta portfolio
The base for the rebalancing portfolio using this alternative is the target portfolio Beta.
Over time the values of the portfolio components and their Betas will change and this
can cause the portfolio Beta to shift. For example, if the target portfolio Beta is 1.10 and
it had risen over the monitored period of time to 1.25, the portfolio Beta could be
brought back to the target 1.10 in the following ways:
Put additional money into the stock portfolio and hold cash
Diluting the stocks in portfolio with the cash will reduce portfolio Beta, because
cash has Beta of 0. But in this case cash should be only a temporary component in
the portfolio rather than a long) term;
Put additional money into the stock portfolio and buy stocks with a Beta lower
than the target Beta figure
But the investor may be is not able to invest additional money and this way for
rebalancing the portfolio can be complicated.
Sell high Beta stocks in portfolio and hold cash
As with the first alternative, this way reduces the equity holdings in the investor’s
portfolio which may be not appropriate.
Sell high Beta stocks and buy low Beta stocks
The stocks bought could be new additions to the portfolio, or the investor could add
to existing positions.
259
Indexing
This alternatives for rebalancing the portfolio are more frequently used by institutional
investors (often mutual funds), because their portfolios tend to be large and the strategy
of matching a market index are best applicable for them. Managing index based portfolio
investor (or portfolio manager) eliminates concern about outperforming the market,
because by design, it seeks to behave just like the market averages. Investor attempts to
maintain some predetermined characteristics of the portfolio, such as Beta of 1.0. The
extent to which such a portfolio deviates from its intended behaviours called tracking
error.
Revising a portfolio is not without costs for an individual investor. These costs can be
direct costs – trading fees and commissions for the brokers who can trade securities on
the exchange. With the developing of alternative trading systems (ATS) these costs can
be decreased. It is important also, that the selling the securities may have income tax
implications which differ from country to country.
Activity B :
1. Explain the role of revision in the process of managing a portfolio.
15.9 Summary
This Unit discusses and illustrates meaning formula plans of portfolio revision, namely,
constant-dollar-value plan, constant-ratio plan, variable-ratio plan and rupee cost
averaging. These formula plans have their own limitations. The choice of portfolio
revision strategy or plan is thus no simple question. The choice will involve cost and
benefit analysis. Strategic asset allocation identifies asset classes and the proportions for
those asset classes that would comprise the normal asset allocation. Strategic asset
allocation is used to derive long term asset allocation weights. The fixed-weightings
approach in strategic asset allocation is used. Tactical asset allocation produces
temporary asset allocation weights that occur in response to temporary changes in capital
market conditions. The investor’s goals and risk) return preferences are assumed to
remain unchanged as the asset weights are occasionally revised to help attain the
investor’s constant goals. Rebalancing a portfolio is the process of periodically adjusting
it to maintain certain original conditions. Rebalancing reduces the risks of losses – in
general, a rebalanced portfolio is less volatile than one that is not rebalanced.A constant
proportion portfolio is one of the portfolio rebalancing methods in which adjustments are
made so as to maintain the relative weighting of the portfolio components as their prices
change. Investors should concentrate on keeping their chosen asset allocation
percentage.
260
15.10 Self Assessment Questions
1. What are the major differences between active and passive portfolio management?
2. Distinguish strategic and tactical asset allocation
3. Why is the asset allocation decision the most important decision made by investors?
4. What is the point of investment portfolio rebalancing?
5. What changes in investor’s circumstances cause the rebalancing of the investment
portfolio? Explain why.
6. Why is portfolio revision not free of cost?
7. Why benchmark portfolios are important in investment portfolio management?
Fischer, Bonald E, and Ronald J. Jordon, 1995, Security Analysis and Portfolio
Management, 6th PHI, New Delhi.
Frederick Amling, Investments: An Introduction to Analysis and Management,
5th Prentice Hall, N.J.
Gitman, Lawrence J., Michael D. Joehnk (2008). Fundamentals of Investing.
Pearson / Addison Wesley.
Jones, Charles P. (2010). Investments Principles and Concepts. John Wiley &
Sons, Inc.
LeBarron, Dean, Romeesh Vaitilingam. (1999). Ultimate Investor. Capstone.
261
Unit - 16 Investment Companies
Structure of Unit
16.0 Objectives
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Concept of Investment Companies
16.3 Advantages of Investment Companies
16.4 Major types of Investment Companies
16.5 Open-end investment company
16.6 Net asset value – NAV
16.7 Role of AMFI (Association Mutual Fund in India)
16.8 SEBI Guideline of Mutual Fund : SEBI Regulation Act 1996
16.9 Launching of a schemes
16.10 Recent Trend of Mutual Fund
16.11 Unit Investment Trusts (UITs)
16.12 Summary
16.13 Self Assessment Questions
16.14 Reference Books
16.0 Objectives
262
16.1 Introduction
Investment companies are business entities, both privately and publicly owned, who
invest in large blocks of securities of diverse firms, and
to obtain its capital from issues of
shares or units. Investment companies giveasmall investor the advantage of a full time
professional investment management, and a very much wider spread of risk that it would
have been other- wise possible.
1) Economies of Scale
2) Professional Management
Economies of Scale: In terms of economies of scale, the individual could buy stocks in
odd lots and thus have a diversified portfolio. However, the brokerage commissions on
odd lot transactions are relatively high. Alternatively, the individual could purchase
263
round lots, but would only be able to afford a few different securities. Unfortunately the
individual would then be giving up the benefits of owing a well diversified portfolio. In
order to receive the benefit of both diversification and substantially reduced brokerage
commissions, the individual could invest in the shares of an investment company. This is
because economies of scale make it possible for an investment company to provide
diversification at a lower cost of investment than would be incurred by a small investor.
Professional Management: In terms of professional management, the individual
investing directly in the stock market would have to go through all the details of
investing, including making all buying and selling decisions as well as keeping records
of all transactions for tax purposes. In doing so, the individual would have to be
continually on the lookout for mispriced securities in an attempt to find undervalued
ones for the purchase, while selling any that were found to be overvalued.
Simultaneously the individual would have to keep track of the overall risk level of the
portfolio so that it did not deviate from some desired level. However, by purchasing
shares of an investment company, the individual can turn over all these details to a
professional money manager.
(1) Open-End Funds: It is also called mutual funds which have a floating number of
issued shares, and sell or redeem their shares at their current net asset value (NAV);
(2) Closed-End Funds: Also called investment trusts. They can sell only a fixed number
of shares which are traded on stock exchanges, usually at a discount to their net asset
value; and
(3) Unit Investment Trusts: Also called unit trusts. They sell their redeemable
securities called units which represent interests in the securities held by the trust in
its investment portfolio. A unit holder is not a shareholder in a unit trust.
Each type of investment companies has its own unique features. For example, mutual
fund and UIT shares are "redeemable" meaning that when investors want to sell their
shares, they sell them back to the fund or trust, or to a broker acting for the fund or trust,
at their approximate net asset value. Closed-end fund shares, on the other hand,
generally are not redeemable. Instead, when closed-end fund investors want to sell their
shares, they generally sell them to other investors on the secondary market, at a price
determined by the market. In addition, there are variations within each type of
investment company, such as stock funds, bond funds, money market funds, index funds,
interval funds, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
264
16.5 Open-End investment Company
An Open-End investment company distributes and redeems securities it issues. The most
common open-end management companies are mutual fund companies which sell and
redeem shares at the net asset value per share. An investor in an open-end fund
essentially pools his/her money with other investors in order to attain economies of
scale, professional management, etc. This differs from a closed-end fund which has a
limited number of shares available. Unlike with open-end funds, an investor in a closed-
end fund typically sells his/her shares on the open market to another investor instead of
back to the fund company.
Concept of Mutual Fund
A mutual fund is a managed group of owned securities of several corporations. These
corporations receive dividends on the shares that they hold and realize capital gains or
losses on their securities traded. Investors purchase shares in the mutual as if it was an
individual security. After paying operating costs, the earnings (dividends, capital gains
or loses ) of the mutual fund are distributed to the investors, in proportion to the amount
of money invested. Investors hope that a loss on one holding will be made up by a gain
on another.
265
open-end market price is influenced greatly by the fund managers. On the other hand,
closed-end mutual fund has a fixed number of shares and the value of the shares
fluctuates with the market. But with close-end funds, the fund manager has less
influence because the price of the underlining owned securities has greater influence.
Advantages of Mutual Funds
Professional Management - The primary advantage of funds is the professional
management of your money. Investors purchase funds because they do not have the time
or the expertise to manage their own portfolios. A mutual fund is a relatively
inexpensive way for a small investor to get a full-time manager to make and monitor
investments.
Diversification - By owning shares in a mutual fund instead of owning individual stocks
or bonds, your risk is spread out. The idea behind diversification is to invest in a large
number of assets so that a loss in any particular investment is minimized by gains in
others. Large mutual funds typically own hundreds of different stocks in many different
industries. It wouldn't be possible for an investor to build this kind of a portfolio with a
small amount of money.
Economies of Scale - Because a mutual fund buys and sells large amounts of securities
at a time, its transaction costs are lower than what an individual would pay for securities
transactions.
Liquidity - Just like an individual stock, a mutual fund allows you to request that your
shares be converted into cash at any time.
Simplicity - Buying a mutual fund is easy! Pretty well any bank has its own line of
mutual funds, and the minimum investment is small. Most companies also have
automatic purchase plans whereby as little as $100 can be invested on a monthly basis.
Disadvantages of Mutual Funds
Costs - Creating, distributing, and running a mutual fund is an expensive proposition.
Those expenses are passed on to the investors. Since fees vary widely from fund to
fund, failing to pay attention to the fees can have negative long-term consequences.
Remember, every dollar spend on fees is a dollar that has no opportunity to grow
over time.
Dilution - It's possible to have too much diversification. Because funds have small
holdings in so many different companies, high returns from a few investments often
don't make much difference on the overall return. Dilution is also the result of a
successful fund getting too big. When money pours into funds that have had strong
success, the manager often has trouble finding a good investment for all the new
money.
Taxes - When a fund manager sells a security, a capital-gains tax is triggered.
Investors who are concerned about the impact of taxes need to keep those concerns
in mind when investing in mutual funds. Taxes can be mitigated by investing in tax-
sensitive funds or by holding non-tax sensitive mutual fund in a tax-deferred
account.
266
Kinds of Mutual Funds
The mutual fund industry of India is continuously evolving. Along the way, several
industry bodies are also investing towards investor education. Yet, according to a report
by Boston Analytics, less than 10% of our households consider mutual funds as an
investment avenue. It is still considered as a high-risk option.
In fact, a basic inquiry about the types of mutual funds reveals that these are perhaps one
of the most flexible, comprehensive and hassle free modes of investments that can
accommodate various types of investor needs. Various types of mutual funds categories
are designed to allow investors to choose a scheme based on the risk they are willing to
take, the investable amount, their goals, the investment term, etc.
I. Open-Ended - This scheme allows investors to buy or sell units at any point in time.
This does not have a fixed maturity date.
1. Debt/ Income - In a debt/income scheme, a major part of the investable fund are
channelized towards debentures, government securities, and other debt instruments.
Although capital appreciation is low (compared to the equity mutual funds), this is a
relatively low risk-low return investment avenue which is ideal for investors seeing a
steady income.
267
2. Money Market/ Liquid - This is ideal for investors looking to utilize their surplus
funds in short term instruments while awaiting better options. These schemes invest in
short-term debt instruments and seek to provide reasonable returns for the investors.
3. Equity/ Growth - Equities are a popular mutual fund category amongst retail
investors. Although it could be a high-risk investment in the short term, investors can
expect capital appreciation in the long run. If you are at your prime earning stage and
looking for long-term benefits, growth schemes could be an ideal investment.
a) Index Scheme - Index schemes is a widely popular concept in the west. These follow
a passive investment strategy where your investments replicate the movements of
benchmark indices like Nifty, Sensex, etc.
b) Sectoral Scheme - Sectoral funds are invested in a specific sector like infrastructure,
IT, pharmaceuticals, etc. or segments of the capital market like large caps, mid caps,
etc. This scheme provides a relatively high risk-high return opportunity within the
equity space.
c) Tax Saving - As the name suggests, this scheme offers tax benefits to its investors.
The funds are invested in equities thereby offering long-term growth opportunities.
Tax saving mutual funds (called Equity Linked Savings Schemes) has a 3-year lock-
in period.
4. Balanced - This scheme allows investors to enjoy growth and income at regular
intervals. Funds are invested in both equities and fixed income securities; the proportion
is pre-determined and disclosed in the scheme related offer document. These are ideal
for the cautiously aggressive investors.
II. Closed-Ended - In India, this type of scheme has a stipulated maturity period and
investors can invest only during the initial launch period known as the NFO (New
Fund Offer) period.
III. Interval - Operating as a combination of open and closed ended schemes, it allows
investors to trade units at pre-defined intervals
268
16.6 Net Asset Value - NAV
Net asset value (NAV) represents a fund's per share market value. This is the price at
which investors buy ("bid price") fund shares from a fund company and sell them
("redemption price") to a fund company. It is derived by dividing the total value of all
the cash and securities in a fund's portfolio, less any liabilities, by the number of shares
outstanding. An NAV computation is undertaken once at the end of each trading day
based on the closing market prices of the portfolio's securities.
For example, if a fund has assets of $50 million and liabilities of $10 million, it would
have a NAV of $40 million. This number is important to investors, because it is from
NAV that the price per unit of a fund is calculated. By dividing the NAV of a fund by
the number of outstanding units, you are left with the price per unit. In our example, if
the fund had 4 million shares outstanding, the price-per-share value would be $40
million divided by 4 million, which equals $10.
This pricing system for the trading of shares in a mutual fund differs significantly from
that of common stock issued by a company listed on a stock exchange. In this instance, a
company issues a finite number of shares through an initial public offering (IPO), and
possibly subsequent additional offerings, which then trade in the secondary market. In
this market, stock prices are set by market forces of supply and demand. The pricing
system for stocks is based solely on market sentiment.
In the context of mutual funds, NAV per share is computed once a day based on the
closing market prices of the securities in the fund's portfolio. All mutual funds' buy and
sell orders are processed at the NAV of the trade date. However, investors must wait
until the following day to get the trade price. Mutual funds pay out virtually all of their
income and capital gains. As a result, changes in NAV are not the best gauge of mutual
fund performance, which is best measured by annual total return. Because ETFs and
closed-end funds trade like stocks, their shares trade at market value, which can be a
dollar value above (trading at a premium) or below (trading at a discount) NAV.
269
16.8 SEBI Guideline of Mutual Fund : SEBI Regulation Act 1996
In India mutual fund play the role as investment with trust, some of the formalities
laid down by the SEBI to be establishment for setting up a mutual fund. As the part of
trustee sponsor the mutual fund, under the Indian Trust Act, 1882, under the trustee
company are represented by a board of directors. Board of Directors is appoints the
AMC and custodians. The board of trustees made relevant agreement with AMC
and custodian. The launch of each scheme involves inviting the public to invest
in it, through an offer documents. Depending on the particular objective of scheme,
it may open for further sale and repurchase of units, again in accordance with the
particular of the scheme, the scheme may be wound up after the particular time period.
270
16.9 Launching of a Schemes
Before its launch, a scheme has to be approved by the trustees and a copy of its
offer documents filed with the SEBI.
India is at the first stage of a revolution that has already peaked in the U.S. The U.S.
boasts of an Asset base that is much higher than its bank deposits. In India, mutual fund
assets are not even 10% of the bank deposits, but this trend is beginning to change.
Recent figures indicate that in the first quarter of the current fiscal year mutual fund
assets went up by 115% whereas bank deposits rose by only 17%. (Source: Thinktank,
the Financial Express September, 99) This is forcing a large number of banks to adopt
the concept of narrow banking wherein the deposits are kept in Gilts and some
other assets which improves liquidity and reduces risk. The basic fact lies that banks
cannot be ignored and they will not close down completely. Their role as intermediaries
271
cannot be ignored. It is just that Mutual Funds are going to change the way banks do
business in the future.
A closed-end fund (CEF) is a publicly traded security that offers its shareholders partial
ownership in an underlying portfolio of assets.
Closed-end funds initially raise capital through an initial public offering. They then use
the proceeds to invest in a basket of securities. The term "closed-end" refers to the fact
that once the initial shares are issued, the fund is basically "closed" to new investors
wishing to purchase shares from the company. Instead, buying and selling takes place
between individual investors.
Investment companies are classified as either closed-end or open-end, depending on the
fund's redemption feature. Closed-end funds do not redeem investors' shares -- shares are
bought and sold at market prices on an exchange. Open-end funds, also known as mutual
funds, directly buy and sell investor shares at net asset value (NAV). NAV is simply the
fund assets minus fund liabilities.
Similar to common stocks, closed-end funds usually trade on one of the major U.S.
exchanges. However, unlike regular stocks, they represent a share of a specialized
portfolio managed by a group of investment advisors. These managers typically
concentrate on a specific industry, country, or sector. Management strategies are
explained in a closed-end fund's prospectus, which should be reviewed thoroughly
before investing.
Closed-end funds typically invest in more speculative investments than open-end mutual
funds, and they sometimes invest in illiquid assets or alternative asset classes. For
example, Closed Fund XYZ may specialize in buying and selling mortgage backed
securities (MBS). MBS are generally not available to individuals, so if you want
exposure to them, you can buy shares of Closed Fund XYZ.
One important aspect of closed-end funds is that their share price can deviate
substantially from their NAV. If the shares are trading at a higher price than the fund's
NAV, they are said to be trading at a premium. Conversely, a fund with share price
lower than its NAV is said to be trading at a discount. Closed-end funds that trade at
substantial discounts to their NAV may offer compelling opportunities for investors to
pick up good assets on the cheap.
Closed-end funds can be an easy way for an individual to invest in a piece of a
diversified portfolio. Like open-end funds, these securities allow individual investors an
opportunity to invest in a wide range of assets, industries, countries, etc. They also allow
the individual investor a chance to invest in highly specialized and sometimes
speculative instruments that would otherwise be off-limits or unavaible.
Before purchasing, it is important to understand any sales fees and management
expenses, which are listed and explained in the fund's prospectus. Fees vary from fund to
fund and can eat away at your total return
Closed-end investment company’s do not continuously offer shares to the public.
Capital is raised by rights offerings, to existing shareholders.
272
Closed-end companies can influence the net asset value, but this is not of great
concern to investors.
Closed-end companies are permitted to invest in unlisted securities, which may not
have a liquid market.
Closed-end companies are not required to buy its shares back from investors upon
request.
Portfolios of closed-end companies are managed by separate investment
advisers, who do not benefit from the continuous buying and selling of the funds
assets, like mutual funds.
Investors should carefully read all of a fund’s available information, including
its prospectus, and most recent shareholder report, before putting assets into a closed-
end fund
A UIT typically will make a one-time public offering of only a specific, fixed
number of units like closed-end funds. Many UIT sponsors, however, will maintain a
secondary market, which allows owners of UIT units to sell them back to the
sponsors and allows other investors to buy UIT units from the sponsors.
A UIT will have a termination date (a date when the UIT will terminate and dissolve)
that is established when the UIT is created (although some may terminate more than
fifty years after they are created). In the case of a UIT investing in bonds, for
example, the termination date may be determined by the maturity date of the bond
investments. When a UIT terminates, any remaining investment portfolio securities
are sold and the proceeds are paid to the investors.
A UIT does not actively trade its investment portfolio. That is, a UIT buys a
relatively fixed portfolio of securities (for example, five, ten, or twenty specific
stocks or bonds), and holds them with little or no change for the life of the UIT.
Because the investment portfolio of a UIT generally is fixed, investors know more or
less what they are investing in for the duration of their investment. Investors will find
the portfolio securities held by the UIT listed in its prospectus.
273
16.12 Summary
In India, the investment companies are of the management type and are formed under the
companies act. Like joint-stock companies engaged in commercial or industrial business,
investment companies raise their capital by issuing shares and debentures to the public.
The profits of such companies comprise the dividends and interest received on the
various securities purchased out of the raised capital. Like other companies, they create
reserves and distribute dividends out o the current profit
274