Albert Carreras • Xavier Tafunell

Between Empire
and Globalization
An Economie Elistory of Modem Spain

palgrave
macmillan
 Contents

1 The Economic Growth of Spain: A Very Long-Term

Perspective 1
1 The Natural Constraints 1
2 The Demographic Transition 7
3 The Increase in GDP and GDP Per Capita: A Comparative
Perspective 11
4 The Spanish Economy between Empire and Globalization:
Another Comparative Perspective 19
5 Welfare: Lookingfor Better Assessments of Well-being 21
5.1 Stature 22
5.2 Human Development 24
6 Prices, Money and Currency 26
Bibliographic Orientation 34

2 From Empire to Peripheral Economy (1789-1840) 37

1 The Collapse of Colonial Trade 38
2 The Bankruptcy of the Absolutist Treasury 43
3 The Crisis of the Old Regime and the Liberal Revolution 48
4 Between Agriculture and Industry: The Formation of the
National Market 53
5 Spain in the Great Divergence: The Failure of the
Prerequisites to Emulate British Industrialization 55
Bibliographic Orientation 58

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3 The Impact of European Industrialization: The Double

Failure of Agrarian and Industrial Strategies (1840-1890) 61
1 The Limits ofAgricultural Expansion 62
2 Economic Liberalization and Internationalization 66
3 State Reform: Tax Reform 71
4 The Great Railways and Banking Business Cycle 75
5 Problems of the First Industrialization 82
Bibliographic Orientation 90

4 Spain in the First Economic Globalization (1890-1914) 93

1 The Transport Revolution and the Great Agrarian Depression 93
2 The Protectionist Shift and the Loss of the Last Overseas
Colonies 96
3 The Formation of the Modern Business Enterprise and the
Start of the Second Industrial Revolution 100
4 A Slow Divergence 103
Bibliographic Orientation 113

5 The Spanish Economy During Great War and Interwar

Years (1914-1936) 115
1 The Impact of War on a Neutral Economy 115
2 The Consequences of the War: The Distributive Struggle 119
3 Growth and Structural Changes During the 1920s 122
4 The Depression of the 1930s in Spain 126
Bibliographic Orientation 133

6 The Isolation from the International Economy: Civil War

and Autarky (1936-1951) 135
1 War Economy, Social Revolution and War Financing 135
2 The Macroeconomic and Distributional Impact ofAutarkic
Francoism 140
3 Market Intervention: Black Market and Rationing 145
4 Autarkic Policies 149
Bibliographical Orientation 153
 CONTENTS xiii

7 Import Substitution Industrialization (1951-1959) 155

1 Cold War, American Aid and Tempering of Interventionism 155
2 From Autarky to Import Substitution Industrialization 158
3 The Structuring of a National Capitalism 161
4 The Unsustainability of the Growth Model. The
Stabilization Plan 164
Bibliographic Orientation 169

8 Spain in the Golden Age: Reintegration into the

International Economy (1960-1973) 171
1 Liberalization, Opening Up to the Outside World and
Economic Integration 171
2 The Transition from a Semi-Industrial to an Industrialized
Economy 176
3 The “Industrialization” ofAgriculture 180
4 Franco’s Neo-Interventionism 182
Bibliographical Orientation 187

9 Economic Crisis and Political Transition (1973-1985) 189

1 The Macroeconomic Impact of the Double Oil Shock and the
Transition to Democracy 189
2 Adjustment Policies and Social Pacts 195
3 The Emergence of the Welfare State 196
4 Industrial and Banking Crisis and Mass Unemployment 199
5 Industrial Restructuring, Bank Rescue and Other
Structural Policies 204
Bibliographic Orientation 208

10 Integration into the European Economy (1986-1998) 211

1 The Business Cycle ofJoining the European Union 212
2 The Real Effects of Integration 214
3 The Nominal Effects of Integration 216
4 Institutional Reform Policies 220
5 The Transition to the Single Currency 225
Bibliographic Orientation 227
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11 Spain in the Euro Area (1999-2017) 229

1 The Economic Cycle ofJoining the Euro and Unbridled
Indebtedness 230
2 The Credit, Real Estate and Immigration Boom. The
Internationalization of Spanish Business 233
3 Macroeconomic Imbalances and the Bursting of the Bubble:
The Banking and Fiscal Crises 239
4 The Rescue of the Banking, and Labour and Pension System
Reforms 250
5 The Economic Recovery 256
Bibliographical Orientation 261

12 Balance of Two Centuries: Growth Engines and Economic

Policies 263
1 Growth Engines: The Sources ofProductivity Growth 264
1.1 Structural Change 264
1.2 Productivity 270
1.3 Amount of Labour: Participation and Employment 277
1.4 Quality of Labour: Education 280
2 Performance of Economic Policies 283
2.1 Economic Internationalization—Foreign Accounts
Balance 284
2.2 The Role of the State—Public Accounts Balance 287
2.3 Monetary Policy and the Management of the
Exchange Rate 290
3 The Outcome: Changing Inequalities 292
4 To Sum Up 297
Bibliographical Orientation 300

Statistical Appendix 303

Index 323