Dynamic system simulation of food Additives To Fulfill Consumer Needs and

Increase Farmer Profits

The demand for food is increasing, including shallots. Consumption of

shallots in 2015, 2016, 2017 in Indonesia, respectively, amounted to 734,000,
854,000, and 889,000 tons. Indonesia Increase the supply of shallots by
importing 17,429 tons in 2016. based on data from the Bantul BPS, the
production of shallots in Bantul in 2017 was less than in 2016, namely in 2017
it produced 52,951 quintals while in 2016 it produced 79,047 quintals.
The price of large size shallots in the month January to december
ranging from Rp 29,000,- up to IDR 50,000 based on data from bps bantul
2018. Farmers' production is very small, that farmers have to bring in shallots
from other city. Based on these problems, a supply chain strategy is needed
that the supply of shallots is sufficient. The research was conducted using
dynamic system simulation. The object is the shallot supply chain which
consists of farmers, collectors and wholesalers .
Shallots production is not only affected by the number of workers but
also by high rainfall. The increasing number of population factors also affects
the production of shallots. Shallots production is also affected by the
increasing population. The area for growing shallots is decreasing . If the
demand for shallots exceeds the supply of shallots from the farmer s then the
farmers will experience a loss sale. When the demand for shallots is less than
the supply provided by the farmers, then the farmers will suffer losses because
of shallots are not sold. This happens due to sales prices that are not in
accordance with the capital issued and also as a result of storage, namely
shelter of shallots. The explanation of these problems shows the need for
coordination between the perpetrators in the supply chain to balance the
number of demand and supply of shallots so that price stability and potentially
can increase the benefits of farmers.
Bantul district supply chain system using casual loop diagram (CLD).
CLD can only describe causal relationships between variables in the system,
but cannot represent the stock and flow structure of the system so at this stage
it is necessary to make stock and flow diagrams as a tool for simulation. Stock
and flow diagrams are used to represent the structure of the system in more
detail so as to form the information flow and formulation of the simulation
model.
The simulation model will be tested before running . This stage is done
by checking whether the simulation model is in accordance with the
conceptual model. The first validation test carried out was a test based on the
average percent error of the actual data with simulation data on the output of
shallot production. Based on the results of the validation test, the shallot
production variable is declared valid because the error is less than 5%. The
next stage is a behavioral reproduction test, this test is carried out to see
whether the model that has been made produces behavior is in accordance with
the real system on shallots consumption behavior. The results of behavioral
reproduction test show that the consumption behavior of shallots in the
simulation is in accordance with the consumption behavior of shallots in the
real system.
The stage after validation is to run a simulation on a model that is run
for one year. There is a graph of the relationship between supply and demand
for shallots. Based on the graph, the demand for shallots tends to be stable
every month, but in certain months the demand is not fulfilled. This is because
shallots are more often planted in the dry season, which is around March to
September or during the off-season. Offseason planting is less profitable for
farmer. At the beginning of the year there was a GAP of -1673.82 quintals
which means that in that month the supply of shallots from production could
not meet the needs of shallots of 1673.82 quintals in Bantul Regency. While in
November and December, there is a GAP of -2203.96 quintals and -2263.55
quintals.
To increase farmers' profits can be done by minimizing production
costs and increase revenue farmers who are influenced by farmer's share. The
increase in farmer's share is obtained when manufacturers add value to the
product which is sold for example by doing picking, sorting, grading, and
transportation to collectors.
The first scenario is a simulation shallots planting in all seasons in
Bantul Regency using True Shallot Seeds (TSS). The second scenario is to
simulate the farmers in Bantul Regency using post-harvest processing
technology, namely by save his unsold crops with make use of Controlled
Atmosphere Storage (CAS). Scenario 3 is Expansion of off-season planting
within the district Bantul. Extended planting out of season takes place in
November Harvest in January and December Harvested in February and
January Harvested in March. Based on these three scenarios Then the best
scenario is chosen Based on the simulation results of farmers' income 1 year.
Based on simulation results Farmer's total profit In Scenario 1 of
Rp.43,520,637,764.98, Scenario 2 Rp.23,776,842,199.98 and Scenario 3
Amounting to Rp 29,815,443,579.69.
 The conclusion from the data and analysis that has been done is the
scenario 1 is selected from the three scenari os. Using scenario 1 farmer
advantage shallots for one that year in Bantul Regency increased by 65.16%
compared to other systems. Based on these results, the recommended supply
chain strategy is use True Shallot Seed for shallots planting in Bantul Regency.

Reference
Dynamic system simulation of food Additives To Fulfill
Consumer Needs and Increase Farmer Profits
Yuli Dwi Astanti, Reiza Novita Putri, Laila Nafisah

http://jurnal.upnyk.ac.id/index.php/opsi/article/view/5403