China's Rise: Xi Jinping's Vision 2049

This presentation is divided into three parts. Part 1 discusses Xi Jinping and his China Great Dream or rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Part 2 discusses what Xi Jinping wants to achieve by 2049: first class military, economic growth, continental security, first island chain, Taiwan reunification, South China Sea and global power status. The conclusions discussed the issues and challenges raised by Xi’s ambitions.

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Carlyle Alan Thayer

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China's Rise: Xi Jinping's Vision 2049

Uploaded by

Carlyle Alan Thayer

We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.

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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

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China Under Xi Jinping – A Global Power

and a Regional Hegemon by 2049

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
PRC Turns 73: Issues and Challenges for Asia and the World,
Global Talk International Webinar hosted by the
Center for Southeast Asian Studies (CSEAS) Indonesia
Jakarta, October 3, 2022
Outline
• Xi Jinping and China’s Great Dream
• What Xi Jinping Aspires To
• First class military, economic growth,
• con3nental security, ﬁrst island chain,
• Taiwan reuniﬁca3on, South China Sea
• Global Power
• Conclusion
Xi Jinping and China’s Great Dream
• Century of Humiliation
• Great Rejuvenation of the
Chinese Nation
• The East is Rising, the West is
Declining
• “To achieve great dreams, we
must have great struggles”
• Xi Jinping National Day 2022
• 20th Congress Chinese
Communist Party 16 Oct 2022
What Xi Jinping Aspires To*

1. Keep the Chinese Communist Party in power

2. National unity and territorial integrity (Uighur
separatists, Hong Kong, Taiwan and ‘four shas’ in the
South China Sea
3. Develop economy, avoid middle income trap
4. Environmental protection
*Source: international expert on China, under Chatham House Rules (May 12, 2021)
What Xi Jinping’s Aspires To

5. First class military (peer to U.S.)

6. Push U.S. back from first island chain maritime zone
7. Continental security – Belt and Road Initiative,
grow markets, gravitational pull towards Beijing
8. China at the centre of the international system as a
respected Global Power with concentric sets of
interests, shaper of the new rules-based
international order
First Class Military
• “We will elevate our people’s armed forces to world-
class standards so that we are equipped with greater
capacity and more reliable means for safeguarding our
na_onal sovereignty, security and development
interests.”
• Xi Jinping speech on 100th anniversary of CCP (1 July 2021)
• China has a quan_ta_ve lead over the United States
• China is rapidly closing the qualita_ve gap
Economic Development
• China’s economic growth (2.8%) will be lower than
Asia (5.3%) for first time since 1990 (World Bank)
• Impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions
• Melt down of world’s largest property market
• Industrial growth in decline
• Rising unemployment
• Marriages and birth rates are dropping
• Currency (RMB) at weakest level since 2008 AFC
Continental Security

Belt and Road

Initiative
First Island Chain

Anti-access/
area denial
or
Counter-
intervention

Source: Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense, Annual Report to

Congress Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (2006)
First Island Chain
Views of Chinese Strategists
• China’s eastern seaboard is hemmed in by chain of
offshore islands that constitute a physical barrier
• Islands are a base for strategic encirclement by hostile
powers
• Chinese dependence on SLOCs, maritime resources inside
island chain
• Island chain are geographic features that define the
operational scope of Chinese naval activities
• Geostrategic value of Taiwan – mid-way in the island chain
China’s nuclear triad –
second strike force
Taiwan Reunification
• Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the country’s military to
develop the ability to take control of Taiwan by 2027. US
intelligence community agrees that Xi’s wants to take control
through non-military means
• CIA Deputy Director David Cohen (September 2022)
• “Only when China is completely reunified can there be enduring
peace across the Taiwan Strait… and any move to obstruct
China’s reunification is bound to be crushed by the wheels of
history”
• Foreign Minister Wang Yi at UN General Assembly (September
2022)
Taiwan Reunification
• National Security Law 2020 used to crush pro-democracy
movement in Hong Kong
• “after the re-unification, we’ll do re-education”
• Lu Shaye, China’s Ambassador to France (August 2022)
“my personal understanding is that once Taiwan is reunited,
coming back to the motherland, there might be process for
the people in Taiwan to have a correct understanding of China
about the motherland”
• Xiao Qian, China’s Ambassador to Australia (August 2022)
South China Sea
• Historic claims to four shas
• Pratas, Macclesfield Bank, Paracel and Spratly islands
• Vital shipping routes (SLOCs)
• Marine resources
• Fisheries, hydrocarbons, minerals on sea floor
• Poten_al bas_on for nuclear submarines
• SSNs and SSBN
Global Power
• China to become the largest and most powerful
country in the world on par with the United States
• But China will be dominant power in the Asia-Pacific in
zero-sum game
• China will set the rules to serve its interests
• China Model –
• Export technical standards
• Governance and political values
• Human rights – economic outcome, material well-being
Conclusion
Challenges and Problems
• Intensification of China-US competition and rivalry will
be main driver affecting security in Asia-Pacific
• Trade, economy, technology, political values,military
• Taiwan reunification focal point of China-US tension
• Major challenge to ASEAN cohesion, unity and
centrality
• Individual states under pressure to take or not take sides
• China likely to use economic sanctions
Conclusion
Challenges and Problems
• China’s drive for first class military will lead to
increased arms expenditure in the region
• AUKUS a counter-point to China
• China’s declining economic growth will impact on
both global and regional economies
• Restrictions on BRI funding already evident
• Continental security will lead to Eurasian bloc
• War in Ukraine will constrain Russia
Conclusion
Challenges and Problems
• China will con_nue to push for exclusionary Code of
Conduct in the South China Sea
• China will con3nue to maintain Coast Guard and Mari3me
Mili3a presence in South China Sea in waters claimed by
li[oral states
• China will con_nue to challenge US and allied military
overflights and warship transits
• China will develop land and sea based nuclear triad
Conclusion
Challenges and Problems
• China’s quest for global power status and regional
hegemony will be contested
• Unity among US and NATO allies (NATO Strategic Concept)
• AUKUS and Quad
• Downturn in China’s economic growth
• Outcome of war in Ukraine and Russia’s status
• Selective economic decoupling
China Under Xi Jinping – A Global Power
and a Regional Hegemon by 2049