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Misamis Oriental Climate Projections

The document summarizes projections for changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature in the Misamis Oriental region of the Philippines for the mid-21st century (2036-2065) and late-21st century (2070-2099) relative to the historical period of 1971-2000. It finds that rainfall is projected to decrease in most seasons and scenarios, with decreases reaching over 40% in some cases. Temperature is projected to increase in all seasons and scenarios, with increases ranging from 1.0-2.3°C. Patterns of change and potential impacts are also discussed.

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MDRRMC Response1855
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125 views4 pages

Misamis Oriental Climate Projections

The document summarizes projections for changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature in the Misamis Oriental region of the Philippines for the mid-21st century (2036-2065) and late-21st century (2070-2099) relative to the historical period of 1971-2000. It finds that rainfall is projected to decrease in most seasons and scenarios, with decreases reaching over 40% in some cases. Temperature is projected to increase in all seasons and scenarios, with increases ranging from 1.0-2.3°C. Patterns of change and potential impacts are also discussed.

Uploaded by

MDRRMC Response1855
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Misamis Oriental relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount
Rainfall Amount
Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%) (mm)
(mm)

Lower Bound -21.4 -94.9 347.6


Moderate
December-January- Emission Median -6.8 -30.2 412.3
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) 37.0 163.9 606.4
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -27.2 -120.5 322.0


High Emission
442.5 mm (RCP8.5) Median -0.7 -3.2 439.3
Upper Bound 28.1 124.5 567.0
Lower Bound -19.1 -56.5 239.5
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median -6.4 -18.9 277.1
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) 7.1 21.0 317.0
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -20.0 -59.3 236.7


High Emission
296 mm (RCP8.5) Median -5.6 -16.6 279.4
Upper Bound 2.8 8.3 304.3
Lower Bound -22.2 -136.9 478.8
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median -14.1 -86.7 529.0
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) 8.5 52.3 668.0
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -15.9 -97.7 518.0


High Emission
615.7 mm (RCP8.5) Median -2.8 -17.5 598.2
Upper Bound 14.6 90.2 705.9
September-October-
Lower Bound -37.3 -216.5 364.6
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median -21.2 -123.3 457.8
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound -0.7 -4.3 576.8
Lower Bound -33.2 -193.2 387.9
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median -10.9 -63.5 517.6
581.1 mm
Upper Bound 16.7 97.3 678.4
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperature in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Misamis Oriental relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Season Scenario Range* Information about patterns of Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Change in ℃ Projected Seasonal Mean Change
Temperature (℃)

Lower Bound 1.0 26.4


Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 1.3 26.7
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) Upper Bound 1.7 27.1
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.4 26.8
High Emission
25.4 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.6 27.0
Upper Bound 2.1 27.5
Lower Bound 1.0 27.8
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median 1.2 28.0
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) Upper Bound 1.7 28.5
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.4 28.2
High Emission
26.8 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.7 28.5
Upper Bound 2.3 29.1
Lower Bound 1.0 27.9
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median 1.2 28.1
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) Upper Bound 1.8 28.7
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.3 28.2
High Emission
26.9 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.6 28.5
Upper Bound 2.2 29.1
September-October-
Lower Bound 1.0 27.5
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median 1.1 27.6
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 1.8 28.3
Lower Bound 1.3 27.8
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median 1.5 28.0
26.5 ℃
Upper Bound 2.2 28.7
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Late-21st Century (2070-2099) for Misamis Oriental relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount
Rainfall Amount
Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%) (mm)
(mm)

Lower Bound -26.5 -117.2 325.3


Moderate
December-January- Emission Median -1.2 -5.3 437.2
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) 20.9 92.3 534.8
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -42.7 -189.1 253.4


High Emission
442.5 mm (RCP8.5) Median -23.6 -104.6 337.9
Upper Bound 64.8 286.9 729.4
Lower Bound -25.3 -74.8 221.2
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median -9.0 -26.7 269.3
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) 9.8 28.9 324.9
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -20.0 -59.3 236.7


High Emission
296 mm (RCP8.5) Median -4.3 -12.7 283.3
Upper Bound 14.9 44.2 340.2
Lower Bound -19.0 -117.1 498.6
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median 0.9 5.7 621.4
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) 17.5 108.0 723.7
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -22.5 -138.3 477.4


High Emission
615.7 mm (RCP8.5) Median 0.2 1.4 617.1
Upper Bound 16.1 98.8 714.5
September-October-
Lower Bound -35.2 -204.6 376.5
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median -20.0 -116.4 464.7
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 1.0 6.1 587.2
Lower Bound -42.2 -245.2 335.9
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median -16.8 -97.8 483.3
581.1 mm
Upper Bound 3.9 22.5 603.6
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperature in the Late-21 st Century (2070-2099) for Misamis Oriental relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Projected Seasonal Mean Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Change in ℃ Temperature (℃)

Lower Bound 1.3 26.7


Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 1.7 27.1
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) Upper Bound 2.4 27.8
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 2.6 28.0
High Emission
25.4 ℃
(RCP8.5) Median 3.0 28.4
Upper Bound 3.9 29.3
Lower Bound 1.4 28.2
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median 1.7 28.5
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) Upper Bound 2.5 29.3
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 2.7 29.5
High Emission
26.8 ℃
(RCP8.5) Median 3.1 29.9
Upper Bound 4.0 30.8
Lower Bound 1.3 28.2
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median 1.5 28.4
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) Upper Bound 2.4 29.3
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 2.6 29.5
High Emission
26.9 ℃
(RCP8.5) Median 3.0 29.9
Upper Bound 4.1 31.0
Lower Bound 1.3 27.8
September-October- Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median 1.5 28.0
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 2.5 29.0
Lower Bound 2.6 29.1
High Emission
Observed baseline =
(RCP8.5) Median 3.0 29.5
26.5 ℃
Upper Bound 4.1 30.6
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile

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